Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 224 - 2/25/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 224 - 2/25/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 224 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Tuesday. The early part of our week rolls
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on. We got a lot to talk about on
0:41
today's podcast. A few things I want to hit on.
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One right back to the college basketball slate, big, big slate
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tonight, around 35 games to choose from.
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And I found three very short favorites here with good rhythm
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edges as well as basically overlapping Juice Reel sharp
0:58
mush indicators. And I want to kind of hit on
1:01
some of the Juice Reel sharp mush indicators, how to use
1:03
them. I've been getting some questions
1:05
about Juice Reel, which again does a great job of helping us
1:08
power this pod alongside rhythm, but I want to kind of get into
1:12
how to use the sharp mush indicators to your advantage.
1:15
So I'm going to explain to you what the sharp mush indicator
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is, what it means. And really, you know, is it a
1:21
blind tail just go off the the biggest discrepancies or do we
1:24
kind of use it just as one of the cherries on top or one of
1:28
the factors that we're going to apply among many factors?
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So been getting questions about Juice real and just so happens
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that the three plays that I like today all happen to have really
1:37
good sharp mush indicators as well.
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So we'll talk a little bit of juice real sharp mush 3 college
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basketball plays for tonight. Also, I want to invite everyone
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as always. You know, it's a Tuesday, so
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that means it is a 4:00 PM Twitter rhythm college
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basketball live stream day. Hope to see you guys 4:00
1:54
Eastern Time. You can just go out right on
1:57
Twitter X as it's now known, and you can follow me at Josh under
2:01
score insights right at 4:00. I'll be going live.
2:04
You can just, you know, slide right in.
2:06
You can ask some questions, get any questions you have about
2:08
rhythm answer. We're going to hit on some other
2:10
games, not just the three games that I'm going to mention on
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today's pod, but how to use rhythm as well as maybe some
2:16
other kind of leans or plays where, hey, we're checking off,
2:20
you know, three out of four boxes.
2:21
But maybe this is a red flag. So you can get your questions
2:24
answered and also kind of figure out, at least from my
2:27
perspective, maybe some tips and strategies to use when you're
2:30
applying rhythm to your handicap.
2:32
Also, I want to mention a little bit of NBA awards talk because
2:36
just got another update for my buddy John Ewing this morning at
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Bet MGM and in particular, one bet that we made last week.
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There's been some really good CLV steam on that, so I'm going
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to tell you what that is, as well as a few others that kind
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of are interesting. A lot of these numbers are way
2:52
out of control. Just huge favorites that'll
2:54
probably win, but you know, not much value laying a -, 500 or
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-1000 but there's a couple that may be getting into a beddable
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zone there. So we'll talk a little bit of
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NBA awards as well. With that being said, looking
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back to our last night, guys, bit of a frustrating night. 1
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and 2 -, 1.3 units. We did have a win with Nichol
3:12
State, which was nice. And as always, money lining
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short favorites. I can't tell you how many times
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this happens, but Nichol State end up winning by two.
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And what happened? They were closing basically -3
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1/2 - 4. They're actually like 3 1/2 when
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we bet them. So we got some COV there.
3:29
Disappointing 1, though, was Alabama State.
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Another great closing line value play.
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I got them money line -140 I think at the time they were
3:36
minus, I want to say 2 1/2, end up closing at 3 1/2.
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They had an opportunity down the stretch to tie the game.
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Couldn't do it. Lost by two to Bethune Cookman.
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So it was frustrating. But then the one play that I
3:49
knew we were in trouble with because we just were on the
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wrong side of a bunch of injuries.
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Obviously that was the game that I was most excited to sweat.
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Ended up being a disappointment. But Texas Tech, Texas Tech at
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home plus 1 1/2 sharp line freeze all day.
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Ken Palm had a one point game, but we got nicked by the
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injuries because we were talking about in particular, I believe
4:10
it's Chase or Chance McMillan. There's another player, Darius
4:14
Williams. I believe both of those players
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who we were hoping would play, both got ruled out right before
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the game started. So it was kind of frustrating to
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see the blind, the line ballooned all the way up to
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Houston I think -4 four and a half.
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But even with kind of that, that bad injury break for us, you
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know, Tech had a bunch of chances in that game.
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If you were watching that game was pretty tight much of the
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way, but Texas Tech just could not score.
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They ended up going 17 of 57 from the field, 30%.
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They're like 20% from three. They literally could not score
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at all. So it was kind of kind of
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frustrating there to see. But hey, what are you going to
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do? We're going to continue to
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grind. See if we can get some winners
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here for tonight. So before we dive into our three
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pack of college sweats, just want to hit on a little bit of
5:00
NBA awards. And of course, you know, when
5:03
you're a sports better, a lot of times you're focused on, you
5:05
know, the games tonight, the games today.
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How can we make money today? But I like having futures in
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pocket gives me something to root for.
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There's a process of when you're selecting futures, you know,
5:15
you're doing research on these teams or players, which could
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benefit you later in the year. And hopefully you can, you know,
5:20
cash some tickets. It's all about having liquidity
5:23
in your bankroll, not going crazy with wind totals in
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futures, but it's always nice when you bet something, you
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know, and then six months later you cash a ticket and you see
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your account go up. So it's a rooting interest you
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can have all year long. Anyway, in terms of the NBA, we
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have some updated numbers here for the NBA awards.
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Now, the one big one here that I want to mention, and I don't
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want to get too excited, but I saw this number and I kind of
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got excited and that is the NBA Rookie of the Year.
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Now, I mentioned this on last week's pod, even maybe the week
5:57
before, but at the time I was watching the Celtics play the
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San Antonio Spurs and one of the best players on the court was
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Stefan Castle, if you remember him from UConn.
6:07
And Stefan Castle at the time I want to say was plus 175.
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That's the number that I got for Stefan Castle, Rookie of the
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Year. I said, you know what, this
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guy's playing great. He's getting better every month.
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He's not hitting a rookie wall. And I said, hey, let's put a
6:22
unit on Stefan Castle. Well, at the time I got plus
6:25
175. I want to say on the pod, he was
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like plus 150, plus 140 somewhere around there.
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Well, guess what? Got my e-mail from John Ewing
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popped open the NBA awards market.
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Stefan Castle is now -175 clear favorite here and the first time
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that he's gone to a minus number.
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So love seeing that again. Hopefully we can cash this
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ticket. When Binyama getting hurt, I
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don't know if that helps or hurts Castle.
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Maybe it helps he gets more minutes but also plays a
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different position. Obviously with deer and fox
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joining, maybe that complicates it a bit.
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But whole point there with futures is trying to get a plus
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money number before it flips to a minus and the bet split.
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Also tickets in dollars. Stefan Castle is getting 10% of
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tickets, 22% of the money. He's actually third in tickets.
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Zach Edie and Dalton Connect have more, around 14%, but
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Castle is the only one 20% or more in terms of handle.
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So if you're holding a Castle ticket, today's a good day.
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We're halfway home. Then here's some other numbers
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that are kind of out of the way for me.
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Really not bettable. Shay Gilgis, Alexander, big
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favorite here for MVP is probably going to get it.
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Yokich is playing great, but Shay Gilgis is -550 he's only
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getting 9% bets, 28% money. Yokich is the next closest at
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plus 350, getting 17% and 21% of the handle.
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So I'm, I'm thinking that's going to be SGA, but at -550 too
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much, too high of a price to bet.
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Here's one that's kind of interesting though.
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Kade Cunningham, most improved player.
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This is interesting because Cunningham, he was, he opened
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plus 2200. So man, if you play that, you
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know, shout out to you. Last week he was a very short
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-125 favorite. Norman Powell was plus 110.
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But a big jump in favor of Cunningham woke up today and
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Kade Cunningham is now -165 to be the most improved player of
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the year. Norman Powell, second spot here,
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runner up. He's plus 135.
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And the splits look pretty good on Cunningham.
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He's getting around 8% of tickets, but 11% of the money.
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That to me is -165 yes, it's a minus number, but it's not -550
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if you want to tell me you want to put something down on
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Cunningham, I'm not going to argue with you.
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Obviously, you would have wanted to target him a little bit
8:46
sooner, but still -165 good bet split.
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Believe it or not, the Detroit Pistons are actually having a
8:52
pretty good year here. I had another win last night,
8:55
but Cunningham, that's quasi bettable.
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If you want to play this, play this award now.
9:00
Defensive player of the year. This one's interesting because
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when Benyama was a huge favorite -2500 he's off the board because
9:07
he got injured and I believe now he won't have the requisite 65
9:10
games needed to to win this award.
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I did see fanatics in a couple other books.
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I want to say paid out this award that's more of a publicity
9:18
promotional thing, but this is a 2 man race.
9:21
Jaron Jackson Junior and Evan Mobley.
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Jaron Jackson Junior is the slight favorite plus 120.
9:27
You look at Evan Mobley, he's plus 1:30.
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If you're looking at the bet splits, Jaron Jackson Junior
9:33
looks better. He's only getting 5% of bets but
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10% of the money. Evan Mobley, 11% of the tickets,
9:40
only 8% of the money. So keep an eye on this one.
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You know, this could be an award where if you like Jaron Jackson,
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maybe you want to see him get down, like you want the plus 120
9:50
before it falls. But also, you know, do we maybe
9:53
want to see him create a little separation?
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And even if you get him like -120 something like that, at
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least you're going to see that line flip in his favor.
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So Jaron Jackson Junior, that could be a possible bettable
10:04
play 6th man of the year, Peyton Pritchard.
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What do you guys think? He was at one point, I think
10:10
like -400 -, 500, he's come back down to earth.
10:14
He's -170 but tickets and money, I mean, he's pretty much
10:18
overwhelming here. He's getting 15% tickets, 28% of
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the money, and you'll keep Peyton Pritchard coming off the
10:25
bench. She's averaging, I think like
10:27
1516 points a game. Next closest here is a tie
10:31
between DeAndre Hunter and Malik Beasley.
10:34
But Peyton Pritchard, I would put him in that Kate Cunningham
10:37
category. You know, if you're playing
10:39
this, that's probably who I'm going with.
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You just want to get the best number here.
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And again, don't love the minus, but it's not a -, 500 Coach of
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the year. Kenny Atkinson, he's pretty much
10:50
running away with this one. But I'll put this in the the
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bucket of unbedtable he is -1000 he's getting 12% pets, 30%
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dollars. So Long story short, small
11:01
update here with the awards market, probably going to be
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Atkinson Coach of the year, probably going to be SGA.
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Those numbers are unbedtable. We are looking good with Castle.
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And then when it comes to most improved, again, you know, is
11:15
that a play here similar to six man with Pritchard where they're
11:18
both around -165 -, 170 To me, if you're going to focus on one,
11:23
it's probably defensive player of the year because you're
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getting two guys right now who are still plus money.
11:28
Question is Mobley versus Jaron Jackson junior, Eileen Jackson
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junior based on the ticket count, that's one that we can
11:34
monitor here and hopefully get a good number with.
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I will mention as well, I'm getting a little bit of NFL
11:40
draft data as well, NFL first round pick.
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That's really kind of the only market right now.
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But you are still seeing Cam Ward as the favorite to go first
11:50
overall. Titans need a quarterback, but
11:52
also are they going to trade out of this pick?
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He has moved further in his favor.
11:57
He was -145 last week, now he's -155 Abdul Carter.
12:01
And by the way, Cam Ward 17% bets, 44% dollars.
12:06
Abdul Carter is kind of right behind him.
12:08
Again, we don't have who will go second, third.
12:10
You know, we're going to get more of these, especially this
12:12
is the combine week in the NFL. But as of right now, Kim Ward is
12:16
getting some movement and bet splits to go first overall.
12:20
So with that being said, just wanted to again hit on a little
12:22
bit of awards. Now let's talk some college
12:25
troops cuz I'm looking for a bit of a revenge night.
12:27
I was really hoping Bama State would come through cuz he cuz
12:30
that would be kind of a free roll of Texas Tech.
12:32
Like if you have 3 plays, you go 2 and O with your first two.
12:34
It's like, hey, I love to go 3 and O, but at least we're
12:37
guaranteed a winning day. But Bama State LED us down there
12:40
late losing by two and again, injuries going the wrong way
12:43
there with Texas Tech. So looking toward tonight guys,
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I got a three pack. Let's dive right in.
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As always, let's try to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning night.
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So first bet for me 7:00 Eastern Time tonight, Baylor at
12:56
Cincinnati. Now Baylor comes in 16 and 11 on
13:00
the year. They've dropped three of their
13:01
last four however, and just fell to Colorado 76 to 74.
13:06
They're actually a 5 1/2 point Rd. favorite in that game lost
13:08
out right. Meanwhile, since he 16 and 11
13:12
same record just snapped the two game losing skid.
13:14
They beat TCU 75 to 63. They covered as a 7 1/2 point
13:19
home favorite. So what have we seen across the
13:21
market here? Well, good movement toward the
13:23
Bearcats. Cincinnati opened this game
13:25
around a very short 1 1/2 point home favorite.
13:28
We've now seen Cincinnati get steamed up to -2 1/2.
13:31
And what I like aside from the line move toward Cincinnati is
13:34
the fact that the public is basically right down the middle
13:37
5050. Both teams have the same record.
13:40
Baylor's kind of a bigger name school and at least the compared
13:43
to Cincinnati, Not the Bob Huggins Cincinnati days, but you
13:46
know, Baylor winning a title a few years ago and it being a
13:49
really good team. They're down a bit this year of
13:51
course, but Publix right down the middle both teams same
13:54
record yes since he's at home, but Baylor's getting points.
13:57
What do we always talk about 5050 bet splits right down the
14:00
middle Theoretically in a vacuum align shouldn't move at all
14:03
because basically actions even no need for the odds makers to
14:06
adjust the number. However, 5050 and you see a line
14:10
move that really gets me excited because it's not the public
14:13
moving the number and as long as there's not an injury like last
14:16
night with Texas Tech, it's really just smart money taking a
14:19
position. So the fact that since he 5050
14:21
split yet since he went -1 1/2 to -2 1/2 tells me smart money
14:26
here is going with the Bearcats. So that's where I want to be.
14:29
Now. Cincinnati is projected to.
14:33
So currently they're only getting 52% of spread bets at
14:36
DraftKings, but 68% of the money.
14:39
And if you look at or sorry, let me just pull this up.
14:43
Yeah, around 50% of the tickets, 62% of the money, which is
14:47
notable. So basically right down the
14:49
middle public as we mentioned, but low bets, higher dollars in
14:51
their favor. Now Ken Palma, since he winning
14:54
by 1. So you guys know the drill.
14:56
Money line short favorite. Really, that's why we got our
14:59
win with Nichols last night. If we lay the point with points
15:02
with Nichols, we lose. Money line we won.
15:04
So I got Cincinnati on the money line at -135 a little bit
15:08
earlier today. They're as high as -140 -, 145
15:12
at this point. But if you're looking at the
15:15
advantages here for Cincinnati, a few jumped out to me.
15:18
One, defensive efficiency, since he played some really good D,
15:22
they ranked 23rd in the country and defensive efficiency.
15:25
You look at Baylor, they're not terrible, but they ranked 65th
15:28
and taking care of the ball, not turning it over.
15:31
You look at Cincinnati, they're ranked 47th and fewest turnovers
15:35
versus 97th for Baylor. Bearcats are also better at
15:39
making it difficult on the opponent to score.
15:42
They're limiting their opponents to an effective field goal
15:44
percentage that ranks 39th in the country and Baylor complete
15:48
opposite they ranked 246. They do not make it hard on
15:51
their opponents. Also, Bearcats do a good job of
15:54
defending the the three they ranked 70th and fewest 3 point
15:59
percentage allowed versus three O 4 for Cincinnati Home Rd.
16:03
splits important here for me since the 11:00 and 4:00 at home
16:06
this year, they've done well in their homecourt.
16:08
The Baylor Bears 2 and 8 on the road.
16:12
Then we get to the rhythm edge again.
16:14
This game is about basically -2 1/2 Cincy.
16:17
Well, our friends are rhythm. They have cincy -2.3.
16:21
So right there with us, hopefully with the Cincinnati
16:23
win. Now I mentioned earlier that
16:26
Juice reel because juice Reel is a really just a great app with a
16:30
lot of different features. But I know sometimes you know,
16:32
unless someone explains these features to you, they can be a
16:34
bit confusing. But I mentioned that the sharp
16:36
mush indicator looks really good here in favor of Cincinnati.
16:41
Now when you talk about sharp mush, this is the specific
16:44
breakdown of how Juice Reel defines sharp mush.
16:48
So quote this feature scans all sharp mush to find the most
16:53
attractive bets, taking into account how many people bet on
16:57
the game. So take it a step further.
17:00
Sharp mush measures the difference between what our best
17:02
and worst betters are betting on.
17:04
A higher percentage indicates a stronger difference between the
17:07
two classes of betters. So when you sync your sports
17:11
books and you place your bet, it'll pop up for you what games
17:14
you're on and then the sharp mush, or you can just click
17:16
sharp mush on Juice Reel. What jumped out to me is I have
17:20
a 25% sharp mush edge on Cincinnati.
17:24
So basically when you look at the best and worst betters,
17:27
which are people who have the Juice Reel app and have synced
17:30
up their sports books and Juice Reel tracks their performance.
17:34
When it comes to the best betters, 83% of the best betters
17:38
in the app are on Cincinnati. The worst betters, 42% are on
17:43
Baylor. So if you take that 83 and you
17:48
look at the OR basically look at the other way, if you look at
17:54
25% short mush indicator, so it says 25% more good betters than
17:59
bad betters are taking Cincinnati.
18:01
So OK, here's where it is. 58% of the worst betters are on
18:06
Cincinnati, but 83% of the best betters on Cincinnati.
18:09
So that's where you're getting that 25%.
18:12
So basically it's telling you the sharper people in the app
18:14
who win at a higher rate, there's a 25% discrepancy in
18:19
favor of Cincinnati versus basically a -, 25 in favor of
18:23
Baylor. Think of it this way.
18:25
The sharper people in the app are on Cincinnati.
18:27
The, you know, and there's always this term I laugh at, but
18:30
the what is it? Profit deficient betters instead
18:33
of calling them a loser better because sports betting is hard,
18:37
but that'll be more so on Baylor.
18:39
So when people ask me like how do you sharp mush?
18:42
You can always just click sharp mush.
18:43
It'll give you the top games. What I like to do is do my own
18:45
research and you know, land on Cincinnati from a data-driven
18:49
perspective. And then I go to rhythm to see
18:51
what they have and I go to Juice Reel to hopefully see if the
18:55
sharp mush is with me. So if the sharp mush is with me
18:57
25% since that makes me feel better about playing Cincinnati.
19:02
If it was on Baylor, I'd get a little bit, you know, nervous or
19:05
not as excited, but that's how I use sharp mush, a cherry on top.
19:09
So Long story short, I got Cincy hopefully to win this game
19:12
straight up on the money line. Got him at -135 next step for
19:17
you. Let's go to a match up here,
19:21
10:00 tonight, UNLV at San Jose State.
19:25
Now going into this one, we have UNLV coming in with a 14 and 13
19:30
record. They did, however, just see
19:31
their three-game win streak come to an end.
19:33
Lost to Colorado State 61 to 53. Did not cover as a 2 1/2 point
19:37
home dog. Meanwhile, San Jose State, 13
19:40
and 16 just snapped A4 game losing streak.
19:42
However, they beat Wyoming 82 to 73.
19:45
They won outright as a 5 1/2 point Rd. dog.
19:49
So what are we seeing across the market for this one?
19:52
Well, this game opened with UNLV listed as low as a 1 1/2 or two
19:56
point Rd. favorite, and it's pretty notable here.
20:01
That smart money is going with UNLV on the road.
20:04
A lot of times you'll see these line moves toward home teams.
20:06
Not so fast though. Pros seem to have sided with
20:09
UNLV in the spot as we've seen UNLV tick up -1 1/2 - 2 now up
20:14
to -2 1/2. And some shops are even juicing
20:17
up the -2 1/2 to -115 like it may even go to three.
20:21
So pretty clear here that the movement is all over UNLV,
20:24
similar split 5050 line move. Basically if you'll get
20:28
DraftKings UNLV, 54% of spread bets, 67% of spread dollars and
20:33
at Circa UNLV only 50% of tickets but 70% of spread
20:38
dollars. So very important to me that at
20:41
both DraftKings and UNLV and at Circa UNLV is basically half the
20:45
tickets, but three out of $4.00, two out of $3.00.
20:48
So both books are showing a sharp low bets, higher dollar
20:52
split in favor of the Rebels. Now Ken Palm only has UNLV
20:55
winning by one. Of course, you know the drill.
20:58
That's a money line play for me. Let's protect ourselves, pay a
21:01
little more juice so that if UNLV only wins by one or two, we
21:05
win our money line versus lose our -2 1/2.
21:09
But at circa, really good bet split on the money line, only
21:11
50% of money line bets, but over 99 O 90% of money line dollars.
21:18
So really good, massive sharp bet split in favor of the
21:21
Rebels. Couple advantages here.
21:23
UNLV big edge in terms of defensive efficiency.
21:26
Hopefully their defense shows up on the road. 67th in the country
21:30
versus 219th for San Jose State. Rebels also take better care of
21:35
the ball. They rank 82nd and turnover
21:37
percentage versus 130th for San Jose State.
21:40
And they're better at forcing turnovers.
21:41
Big difference here. They rank 84th best in the
21:44
country at forcing turnovers. San Jose State really doesn't
21:47
turn you over. They rank 235th.
21:50
You also look at recent performance.
21:52
San Jose State's giving up 76 points a game their last 10
21:55
games. UNLV is only giving up 65 points
21:58
a game, their last 10. Lastly, our friends at Rhythm
22:02
have UNLV -2.4. So further evidence there of
22:07
some sharper indicators here going with UNLV.
22:10
And I also noticed that on the money line at a juice rail, we
22:15
have a 14% sharp mush indicator in favor of UNLV.
22:20
So basically you are getting at this point, the best betters
22:24
nearly 100%. Basically all the best betters
22:26
are on UNLV in this app versus the worst betters only 86% on
22:31
UNLV. So I would equate to a 14%
22:34
discrepancy. So short Rd. favorite, but UNLV,
22:38
some stat advantages, good line movement, sharp mush indicator.
22:42
I'm going UNLV to hopefully win this game. 10:00 Tonight I got
22:45
the Running rebels -144 on the money line.
22:50
Last bit of the night, 11:00 PM Eastern Time.
22:52
We're staying up late and we're sweating New Mexico at San Diego
22:56
State, so coming in this 1/2 of the better teams here out West.
23:00
New Mexico 22 and 5 on the air just saw their eight game win
23:03
streak end, though they lost to Boise 86 to 78.
23:07
Didn't cover as a 5 1/2 point Rd. dog.
23:10
Meanwhile, San Diego State, the Aztecs 18 and seven this year,
23:13
just saw the three-game win streak come to an end.
23:15
Though they lost to Utah State 79 to 71, didn't cover as a 5
23:20
1/2 point Rd. dog. Now what are we seeing across
23:23
the market? Well, some sneaky sharp movement
23:25
in favor of the Aztecs. This game open with San Diego
23:29
State listed as a 2 point home favorite and the public is
23:32
saying the wrong team is favored because New Mexico better record
23:36
22 and 5 versus San Diego State 18 and seven.
23:39
However, even though you're getting around 55% of spread
23:41
bets on the Lobos, this line isn't down to a pick em.
23:45
It's actually gone up at most shops -2 to -2 1/2 in favor of
23:50
the Aztecs. So Publix on Lobos, why is this
23:53
line going to Aztecs? Tells me you have a classic fade
23:56
the trendy dog reverse line move in favor of San Diego State.
24:00
Now you're going to like this. Ken Palm is San Diego State
24:04
winning by 4. That's kind of a big edge again
24:07
there -2 1/2 in the market. Ken Palm's got them by 4.
24:10
So that makes me feel more confident that Ken Palm's
24:13
analytics is a little bit more bullish than the market on San
24:17
Diego State. I'm still going to mitigate some
24:19
risk though. I got San Diego State on the
24:21
money line. I got them at -130 earlier
24:24
today. And if you look at DraftKings
24:27
good bet split 51% of money line bets, but over 75% of money line
24:32
dollars. Now, San Diego State pretty much
24:35
every year you can count on their defense.
24:36
Another another good defensive team this year, 10th in the
24:39
country. New Mexico is pretty good too,
24:41
but they ranked 26th. They also do a better job though
24:44
San Diego State at making it difficult on their opponent.
24:47
Opponents effective field goal percentage, 5th best in the
24:51
country. New Mexico ranks 97th.
24:54
Aztecs only giving up 63 points a game.
24:56
New Mexico's giving up 72. I also don't mind that this is a
24:59
revenge spot for San Diego State.
25:01
They lost to New Mexico earlier this year, 62 to 48.
25:04
That was back in early January. Now our friends at Rhythm have
25:08
San Diego State -2.1 and if we go to the sharp mush indicator,
25:13
another overlap here on San Diego State, 20% sharp mush edge
25:18
in favor of the Lobos because the Lobos are sorry in favor of
25:22
San Diego State. Because if you look in the app,
25:26
90% of the OR sorry 70%. How do I read this?
25:33
Sometimes it's hard to read. OK, so 30% of the best betters
25:39
are on San Diego State, but 90% of the worst betters are on the
25:44
Lobos. So think of it this way, 30% of
25:46
the best betters on San Diego State, but only 10% of the worst
25:50
betters on San Diego State. That is a 20% sharp mush
25:53
indicator in favor of the Aztecs.
25:56
So lining up here with a line move, a fade, the trendy dog
25:59
play, good sharp mush indicator and rhythm edge.
26:02
I'm going with the Aztecs hopefully to earn a victory
26:05
tonight. I got him at -130 So Cincinnati,
26:09
UNLV, San Diego State, 3 money lines.
26:12
Let's try to go 2 and one eke out a winning night.
26:15
So that about does it for episode 224 of the All Systems
26:18
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
26:21
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and we
26:23
start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
26:26
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
26:29
the virtual bar. So that's some sharp contrarian
26:31
breakdowns together. Will we win every bet we make?
26:34
No, unfortunately sports betting is hard if you haven't realized
26:37
that yet. But we are making sure that we
26:40
are on the sharp side of every play, which will help us to win
26:42
long term, of course. But if you enjoy this podcast,
26:46
if you look forward to it dropping each day, if you look
26:49
forward to the insights and value the insights win, lose or
26:52
draw, you know you're getting it straight from what the market is
26:55
telling you, then please do me a solid make my day.
26:58
Give this podcast a five star review.
27:00
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, if you want to leave
27:03
a nice little review comment, that'd be great.
27:05
If you want to recommend it to a friend, I'd very much appreciate
27:08
that as well. Secondly, if you're learning
27:11
about data-driven sports betting and you want to learn more and
27:14
you want to hold something in your hand that you can revert
27:16
back to and right in the margins and highlight like back when you
27:19
were in high school or college and you wrote in the margins,
27:23
well, guess what? I got two books that you should
27:24
buy. One, go to Amazon.com and type
27:27
in the everything Guide to Sports betting, My baby, the
27:30
first book I ever wrote. Very proud of it.
27:33
But I'm even more excited for you to read my second book.
27:36
You can go to Amazon.com and type in the NFL Sharp Betting
27:40
Playbook which drops August 12th.
27:42
I would love, love, love, love if you could pre-order a copy.
27:46
Just go to againamazon.com, type in the NFL Sharp Betting
27:49
Playbook, click pre-order copy. It's $24.00.
27:52
You'll get it before it drops to the public.
27:55
But it would really mean a ton to me if you wanted to pick up a
27:58
copy of one or both and make my day.
28:01
When you bring it to the sports book, I'll sign it for you and
28:03
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
28:05
And I will mention to the Nash Nashua, NH close to me.
28:10
It's only about 20 minutes away from my house.
28:12
I believe the grand opening is March 5th.
28:16
So maybe I'll see you at the Nash.
28:17
We'll sweat some games together and I'll sign both books for you
28:21
next. Have you downloaded both Juice
28:22
Reel and Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
28:24
you doing? Go download rhythm, go to the
28:27
App Store. RITHMM Rhythm, of course, is
28:30
great at power in this pod, giving U.S. data back models and
28:33
predictions for game bets and player props.
28:36
You'll get Juice Reel or you can follow the all systems.
28:38
Go best bet pics from the social tab, which has been completely
28:41
revamped. It looks great, so shout out to
28:43
Ricky Gold and the team for putting that together.
28:46
That's $4.99 a week. If you want to tail or get
28:50
access to those all systems, go best bet picks.
28:53
You can also get all the sharp mush indicators, which we talked
28:55
about today. Arbitrage plays, shop for the
28:58
best line. Hey, if you want to play some of
29:00
those futures we talked about, you can literally go to futures
29:03
and type in the award and I'll show you whichever book is
29:05
giving you the best price. So both rhythm and Juice Reel 2
29:09
great apps. Make sure you download them and
29:11
also give them a five star review because they would they
29:14
would love that too. So with that being said, as
29:18
always, I'm going to leave you with a couple things.
29:19
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
29:23
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
29:25
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
29:28
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
29:31
neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the
29:33
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter
29:36
sends his number runners with lowest juice possible found at
29:39
the South Point. We're sweating sharp contrarian
29:41
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when they cash a
29:44
big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be.
29:46
You're going to walk up to me and you're going to show me a
29:48
nickel state ticket, whatever you do.
29:50
Bama State and Texas Tech with those injuries, man, that was
29:53
that was disappointing. But still with the injuries,
29:55
they shot 30% from the field. They literally could not buy a
29:58
bucket. But hey, what are you going to
30:00
do? First one's on me, next one's on
30:01
you. We're going to post about the
30:03
book and sweat some sharp college games together tonight.
30:06
So as always, 1 and 2 two and one three and O, you know O and
30:10
three, the blueprint, the plan of attack.
30:13
It never changes if we can make bets with our head and not our
30:15
heart against the public, with the house, with the pros flat
30:18
bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
30:21
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
30:23
long term. So have a great Tuesday,
30:25
everybody hope to see you at 4:00 for the Twitter live
30:29
stream, which will be the rhythm Tuesday sweats for college
30:31
hoops. But if not, I will then see you
30:33
tomorrow which will be a big Wednesday.
30:36
Episode 225 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
30:41
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
30:43
great night.