Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Ep. 685 Exploring Tezos: The Future of Blockchain Governance

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Ep. 685 Exploring Tezos: The Future of Blockchain Governance · CRYPTO 101

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[SPEAKER_03]: Welcome to the Crypto101 podcast, presented by Gemini.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Your bridge to the future of money.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Alright everybody, welcome back to another episode of the crypto 101 podcast.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I'm your co-host Bryce.
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[SPEAKER_03]: As always, joined by my good buddy across the Great Plains, all the way over in Florida, Brendan, how are you doing?
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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm doing good, man.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I took the weekend and I was thinking, I have a lot of questions about layer ones and altcoins.
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[SPEAKER_02]: and you came and say I think I have the right guy for this.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think I have the solution.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, no joke.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We're really excited to be speaking with Arthur Brightman today.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Who's the co-founder of Tezos Arthur was you know, a big wig over at Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley and then
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[SPEAKER_03]: Over at Google and Waymo and then decide hey, I'm gonna take my conquering skills and go to the blockchain world and built a layer one protocol So there's nothing he hasn't done in finance in engineering Arthur is joining us welcome to the show and how are you doing Arthur?
1:08
[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks.
1:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for having me.
1:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing I'm doing all right.
1:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I will correct.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I was not a big way goes
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[SPEAKER_03]: Midwigs, midwigs, but you were you were building a lot of the algorithms doing a lot of the hard mathematics and quantitative stuff.
1:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I love that.
1:24
[SPEAKER_03]: I was doing a lot of math.
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[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of math and still are doing a lot of math, I presume.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Not enough, you know.
1:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I wish they were more math on my day to day, but it is what it is.
1:36
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, absolutely.
1:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe you'll take a sabbatical and do some deep study on some imaginary numbers, or theoretical physics.
1:46
[SPEAKER_03]: What's your favorite, kind of just before we get in?
1:48
[SPEAKER_03]: What's your favorite, kind of math?
1:49
[SPEAKER_03]: Like non-uclidean geometry, or what's your, what's your, what's your quirk?
1:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I love, um, I like Queen of Torex a lot, uh, I know, what was that?
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[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't probably
2:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I would say applied math.
2:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not a theoretical math math guy.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just I like, um, uh, that was a numerical engineering.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's when you have when you have to deploy, um, computer solution that actually implements mathematical algorithms that I love that part.
2:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Brennan, what's the highest level of math you had to take?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, it was it was way more than that.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I took like the highest levels of everything, obviously.
2:33
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, maybe I don't know, probably your eighties, probably stats, but, I don't know, that's, I don't know, that's, I don't know.
2:41
[SPEAKER_03]: Are there were super pumped?
2:43
[SPEAKER_03]: Look, Tezos came out several year, 2017 or 2018.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So the chain launch in 2018, the 2018 or before it's 2014.
2:53
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh wow, so it was way, it was in the works before the first Altcoin bubble, really.
2:59
[SPEAKER_03]: Tell us a little bit about the founding story and get everybody up to speed.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Who might have just heard about the coin or seen it on coin market cap, but doesn't really know how it's different from anything else.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So back in 2014, the industry was small, but there was a lot of forums discussing ideas around how to build those systems.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And people were discussing concepts around proof of stage, small contracts, privacy, all these ideas were floating around.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And it was a consensus initially that Bitcoin was going to implement all that.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Essentially, like all these ideas, it would find their way into,
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[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin because Bitcoin was not an algorithm, Bitcoin was a ledger, and you can always change the algorithm as long as you get the ledger.
3:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And I thought that was a very powerful idea, but then I observed a couple of things.
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[SPEAKER_00]: One is I observed very early ausification, other Bitcoin protocol.
3:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And essentially, a bit of a disdain for ideas outside of Bitcoin.
4:06
[SPEAKER_00]: best ideas from the base alcoins to oh, you know, those ideas are not good anyway.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And but it was a valid objection, I would say, for many people in the Bitcoin community saying, look, you don't want to change your algorithm wheeling nearly because then, you know, what's to stop someone from coming and say, like, let's have a major inflation or let's bread a protocol, Brexit protocol, it's some way.
4:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And other people were saying, oh, well, that doesn't matter.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the developers will tell us when to fork.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And then we can always choose to fork or not.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's not a real choice, you know, if everyone's forking, you have to, or you're left on a fork that no one uses.
4:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And the idea of this was to say, look, evolution is going to be important.
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[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of new technology coming.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You can't launch a blockchain today and hope that it will remain technology relevant.
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[SPEAKER_00]: ten years from now without evolution.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And the idea was to have a governance process built in the chain that would allow the chain to evolve while remaining decentralized.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So without a hard force which I argue in the past or fundamentally centralizing.
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[SPEAKER_00]: That's the main idea, and Tesla's came out not just with governance on Shane Governance, but also with proof of stake.
5:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, I don't consider proof of stake if there's no slashing, right?
5:29
[SPEAKER_00]: If you have nothing at stake, if there's no risk, it's not proof of stake.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So from that perspective, it was the first proof of stake for the call, because you could actually like lose your coin.
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[SPEAKER_00]: and also fairly advanced smart contracts, that's the story of Titles in a nutshell.
5:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And since then, it's been a lot of evolution with nearly 20 of grades by now.
5:49
[SPEAKER_03]: Wow.
5:49
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it's been a long journey.
5:52
[SPEAKER_03]: And it sounds like kind of one of the the main separators of this is the governance.
5:58
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's something that people don't really think much about.
6:04
[SPEAKER_03]: They don't really think that there's a whole government governing body beneath this, whether it's the stakers or in Tesla's case, the bakers, right, and the delegators.
6:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
6:14
[SPEAKER_03]: So tell us what crypto governance is.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And let's kind of unpack it from a first principle standpoint.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and sometimes the governance is explicit, like it tells us, and sometimes it's implicit.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the idea that people had in a Bitcoin space was that, oh, it's great because we don't have governance, governance is bad.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But the problem is that you always have governance.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You can choose to make it explicit or you can have it imposed upon you externally.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I remember attending a conference around 2013,
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[SPEAKER_00]: a real world, sorry, they are a second friends in a, I was in real world, it was in real world crypto.
6:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we was real world crypto conference, sorry, in New York around 2013, 2014, which is when Zikaesh was, it should use it proposed.
7:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And someone else came on stage and he was saying, oh, you need to mine, because if you're not mining, you don't have a voice in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, they had this idea that mining power was governance.
7:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And I said, I'm not sure about that.
7:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Because, you know, well, if you have 50% sure you can forks in that work.
7:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you fought in that work, I had no one listens to you.
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[SPEAKER_00]: If all the nodes don't listen to you, if the definition of what it's Bitcoin doesn't change, your mining means nothing.
7:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And we saw this with the, you know, was a threat that came a year later of the user-activated suffoc around the segments.
7:46
[SPEAKER_00]: No, it's not a secret to it.
7:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a secret to XR.
7:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've got a name.
7:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Always called.
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[SPEAKER_00]: really what defines the protocol is whatever people want the protocol to be.
7:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It's, you know, at the end of the day, the value of this network is inter-subjective.
8:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, you know, what makes a bit, what makes a bit going to Bitcoin, that everyone can see is that it's a Bitcoin and there's no disagreements.
8:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, if who controls that?
8:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's very complicated to entangle it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: But at the end of the day, there is some locus of control here, even if it's implicit.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And in Bitcoin, they try to make this look as a control as, you know, I would say spread as possible.
8:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's done somewhat successfully in a way that actually makes it very hard to upgrade Bitcoin.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So if, you know, you consider every upgrade to be a bad thing and an interesting thing, if you think that you always have more to lose from an upgrade than you have to gain, then that's the strategy that works.
8:45
[SPEAKER_00]: but it's still a form of governance.
8:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, you look at something like Ethereum, for example, and they say our governance is working.
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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll propose a fork, but you're free.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to accept it.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, fork-based governance predates blockchains.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It comes from the open source world.
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[SPEAKER_00]: In the open source world, when there was an open source project and there's a disagreement over what direction to take, it would force a project.
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[SPEAKER_00]: So some people use one version.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Some people use another version.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, very old example, you know, X386 versus XORic, the display manager for, so we've seen those folks have been all the time.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Fire, Fox was a, was a fork of Medzilla as well.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, Dylan, that works when it's software because you can have two versions of the software who exist and there's no problem.
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[SPEAKER_00]: When your whole point is that you're a network of value, you're constantly, you know, you're splitting the value in some sense.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And, uh,
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[SPEAKER_00]: What the branch that people are going to follow is a branch that people see as canonical.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a real one and which one is that you don't have any freedom in the choice.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's just because you can run the other fork.
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[SPEAKER_00]: It means nothing if everyone else is running the first one and there's a very old paper that I see came from feminist circle because the tyranny of structuralistness.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And essentially if you refuse to have this formal bow or structures,
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[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have informal one where some people hold the power and it's not really an explicitly, but because you don't have the structure, it actually becomes very easy for a small minority to control things.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think you have that when you have fork-based governance.
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[SPEAKER_00]: You have a few people who are going to be very visible and whenever they decide,
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[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, implicitly, people are say, well, you know, I don't necessarily want to follow it, but I know that's how people are going to coordinate the becomes and scaling points, uh, constantly invented by economy, still not scaling.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, you end up with very centralized governance, even if it looks like a free choice.
10:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, there's so much that goes into this.
10:41
[SPEAKER_02]: And as you are going through it, I have a thinking of a question of, what was harder being a quant, which is largely assumed to be one of, if not the hardest jobs that anyone can ever have, or building Tazos, which is a million dollar blockchain protocol with big bodies of humans and governance and all these things intertwined.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But there's a lot of that that goes into both of them.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what's in the argument.
11:06
[SPEAKER_00]: What's in the argument?
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[SPEAKER_00]: It's more than a million.
11:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, did you say billion or million?
11:12
[SPEAKER_02]: I meant to say billion if that's not what I was talking about.
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[SPEAKER_00]: I heard you say seven hundred and thirty nine and a six million.
11:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it depends what you mean by a hard, you know, I think it's like there's few people who can do math at the level that is required for being at won't, but, you know, in some sense,
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[SPEAKER_00]: I never found it hard, you know, there's some people who put them on a piano and that day before they just start playing and sure after that they're going to work a lot, but they kind of have like an act for it, and some people do it for track, and like I added for masks, like from an early age, masks very, very easily for me, so I didn't find it hard because I found it extremely fun, and I enjoyed it, so for me, a hard job is more like,
12:03
[SPEAKER_00]: a job where you might have a lot of responsibilities a job where you know which might be very stressful which might have very demanding hours no like you're a corner on on on on Wall Street even at the demanding bank you might do no hours, but it's nothing like.
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[SPEAKER_00]: what they might do in investment banking, where it's just like there's these ridiculous hours where you're expecting to work 60 dollars, like, you know, that's really hard.
12:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So, which is harder.
12:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, from a mass perspective, I think the math in Tesla's is definitely simpler than a lot of the math in the court finance.
12:37
[SPEAKER_00]: That stuff's being true if you start looking at zero knowledge groups.
12:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Looking really deep inside of that, you get some interesting number theory here in Algebra.
12:46
[SPEAKER_00]: But by an odds roll of that is encapsulated and you know very quickly my role in Tizzles came more about taking around high-level architecture and trying to be seen from first principle about what's technology was good for rather than making very complicated technical choices.
13:05
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah that makes a lot of sense and that was actually you know kind of dovetailing in my next question about what these blockchains are really good for and you know
13:13
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a big question that's still out for debate right now.
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[SPEAKER_03]: People are trying to do everything on a blockchain.
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[SPEAKER_03]: People are trying to build gaming architecture.
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[SPEAKER_03]: People are trying to build casinos on chain.
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[SPEAKER_03]: People are trying to build decentralized render farms.
13:27
[SPEAKER_03]: People are trying to build decentralized financial applications and tokenizing real-world stocks.
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[SPEAKER_03]: There's so many things you could do.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But again, it's kind of like the internet.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, everybody started slowly on the internet and then everything was done on the internet.
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[SPEAKER_03]: going to be used for maybe you could specify with Tesos or you could generalize.
13:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, in general, I've been a more of a contrary voice in the industry.
13:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I tend to think it's just for fewer people, fewer things that people imagine.
14:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Although, I will say in recent years, we've seen a bit more people have started having a bit more sense.
14:08
[SPEAKER_00]: the use cases that they foresee more more restraint.
14:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah more more more restraint or a little less a little less bullshit perhaps in the past year.
14:18
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know bullshit can always come back.
14:21
[SPEAKER_00]: It was quite you know a lot of the silliness was around 2014, 2015 like and let's see.
14:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So basically these things are ownership networks, right?
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think any things that has to do with
14:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Potentially of use, you know, the blockchain solves the double spend problem.
14:42
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're not spending, if you're not transferring your title of some sense.
14:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I question whether or not you really need the in a blockchain.
14:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So the obvious ones, the very first one that people saw, payments, payments are a huge use case.
14:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And the legality of stablecoin has made it a first to de facto and a deterioratingality of stablecoin has made it to huge industry for payments.
15:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So payments are enough to swan having access to a global network for payments, very convenient.
15:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the store of value angle and protection against government confiscation, or at least, you know, being confident, you know, it's not confiscation proof, but if confiscation resistance is one of the most important use case and it's driving a lot of value of Bitcoin.
15:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a use case that got me interested in the space of the permission is payments and confiscation proof money.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That's, I think, the real core of the technology.
15:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you can go a bit further.
15:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And I always say there's a, imagine you have a spectrum.
15:45
[SPEAKER_00]: between you as a completely cyberpunk aspect which is to say the government is trying to prevent you from having economic activity and you need to have this tool so that you can have economic activity even though the government doesn't want you to.
15:59
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a purest form of the technology, the one that got me interested in in a space, the one that makes me think this is all like or as well.
16:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the extreme end, you have Walmart putting trisibility for lettuce.
16:13
[SPEAKER_00]: which is completely uncontroversial and also the blockchain is completely useless for it.
16:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, if someone wants to build a trustability use case, the business blockchain is open.
16:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We, you know, I'm open for business.
16:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Come and build it on block on Tesos.
16:29
[SPEAKER_00]: It'll be better on Tesos than it will be on the blockchains.
16:31
[SPEAKER_00]: That being said, I will have an honest conversation with you until you.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you don't need a blockchain for this.
16:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's stuff in the middle.
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think a lot of the trends
16:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Make some sense.
16:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Having a global network where you have different parties that can interact seamlessly where you don't have silos.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So you can launch financial product and have them have a global reach.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Have compatibility with custodians around the world.
16:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Having this essentially is this financial fabric that is easy to plug into and into or operate with.
17:05
[SPEAKER_00]: That I think is a bit like in the middle of the spectrum type of saying non-complicably not so seditious in some sense that you couldn't do it on a private chain or on some database.
17:17
[SPEAKER_00]: But the lack of coordination around the world and the frictionness.
17:21
[SPEAKER_00]: environments you can get on a public blockchain means that it's still a fit.
17:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have product market fits and it sits somewhere in the middle of the spectrum.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So those are some of these use cases.
17:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I've also been pushing on Tesos, like recently, the tokenization of uranium for instance.
17:41
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it's on that one.
17:42
[SPEAKER_03]: That was, that was a pretty cool one.
17:44
[SPEAKER_03]: And I don't, I don't own any uranium yet, but if I do, you know, I know I should.
17:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I can't advise you on on what the amounts of uranium you should have in your portfolio is I don't know your specifics.
17:56
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
17:56
[SPEAKER_00]: But it should be more than one cent.
17:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And less than a hundred percent of your assets.
18:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, less than a hundred and there's some point in between.
18:05
[SPEAKER_03]: And just had a curiosity is uranium, is it because nuclear power is going to be a big idea, like small to medium-sized nuclear reactors and like all that kind of stuff?
18:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, of course.
18:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's like we're seeing a nuclear renewal, there's not a day where you don't see news about nuclear power plants being built, countries changing their regulation to rebuild nuclear.
18:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's, and the demand for energy is predicted to skyrocket.
18:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you see all the numbers, all the investments, you know, like yesterday, I think it was Nvidia, with Nvidia investing a hundred billion dollars into, uh, open AI for the computer.
18:46
[SPEAKER_00]: That takes a lot, you know, so it's giant plus or take a lot of powers.
18:49
[SPEAKER_00]: The power is not there.
18:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So this massive CapEx spend, you see it in GPU, it's going to have to be a CapEx spend as well in power.
18:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And nuclear power, I would say, is the best complement today to solar power.
19:04
[SPEAKER_00]: But it need to be a lot of capacity.
19:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you need to have a lot of uranium as fuel for the power plants.
19:10
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'm curious because I think you're spot on.
19:13
[SPEAKER_02]: When you look at the need for how we're going to do all these different things, when you look at the need for data centers and AI, and all these different industries that we want to build up inside of tech, that all requires astronomical amounts of power that we just don't have the infrastructure for yet.
19:29
[SPEAKER_02]: And so immediately, my brain's going towards, you know, we talked about how blockchain can be really useful for some areas.
19:36
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we had the lettuce and Walmart situation running electricity, where it's like, OK.
19:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's not as useful there.
19:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Is there or could there be a use case for blockchain tech as it relates to some of the power buildup or the power issues that we're having here?
19:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Is there any kind of slot that you think blockchain could enable that space to do better?
19:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe, but I think we've had like a decade of people trying to show horn block training to some use cases Uh-huh and sometimes I think it's Have you ever heard of the story of the stone soup?
20:10
[SPEAKER_02]: No, no, no, no.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: It's someone comes to a village You know, they have a stone and they ask for water to make a soup and the villagers say well, you know, like
20:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm only giving you water, you know, don't ask for more, and I don't know, don't worry.
20:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just making a delicious stone soup with what's that, it's like, well, you know, you spoil the stone.
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's good.
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, oh, yeah, it's especially with carrots.
20:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, well, I guess I'll give you a carrot.
20:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And I want to try that.
20:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And then all the villagers see end up.
20:35
[SPEAKER_00]: bringing vegetables, and the soup is delicious, and the guy goes and you can reuse a stone.
20:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I've seen examples where people say, well, we'll do a supply chain solution with a blockchain.
20:46
[SPEAKER_00]: The first, we're going to put RFIDs on all your items, and then you're going to have a system where everyone is going to have a handheld device to scan it, and you'll build all of this technological solution, which is great for you to supply chain.
20:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And then at the end, we put a hash
21:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And as well, you know, if you sold the whole project using the keyword blockchain for the innovation lab, you know, you've had lots of value because you've modernized the whole thing, but really the blockchain didn't do it is saying it got a little interesting.
21:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a bit of that.
21:18
[SPEAKER_00]: In terms of the power grid, I think you can do like we do energy trading on the blockchain, like anything you can trade, you can probably trade on a, on the blockchain, this latency questions at play,
21:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, like, do I see, uh, power centers, like talking to each other and trying to advocate, you know, like energy on a chain.
21:41
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't really need any of that.
21:43
[SPEAKER_03]: What's this whole, um, I'm not sure if if you're up to up to snuff on this, because we didn't really talk about this in an outline or anything, but just on this topic, people are talking about Bitcoin miners in Texas, like helping balance the grid.
21:58
[SPEAKER_03]: be in a load balancer and then building up these these Bitcoin mines right next to these like areas where they typically Flair natural gas and so they're recapturing this is this all Fugazi or is there something real here great companies great companies Okay There's there's there's there was one piece of bullshit and and it's whole story So
22:29
[SPEAKER_00]: true, but it only works in a certain regime.
22:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Why?
22:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're a Bitcoin miner.
22:33
[SPEAKER_00]: You spend a bunch of money on your ASX.
22:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have to spend on energy.
22:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have two expensive.
22:41
[SPEAKER_00]: One is your capital of monetization, and two is your energy.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if your energy costs is a dominant one, then sometimes you're going to shut off your plan.
22:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're going to say, look, it's not worse it for me to buy this very expensive energy.
22:55
[SPEAKER_00]: to do Bitcoin.
22:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So when there, it might happen when there's peaks, right?
22:59
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not you're going to stop.
23:01
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you don't have a peak or when the energy is very cheap, you're going to start mining again.
23:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, it's, it's rare, so that's, um,
23:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You might be mobile, you might go to different places, but you still have a lot of amortization.
23:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So the more the amortization is the big part in your expense, the less it's going to be there.
23:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the origin part is when people say, oh, Bitcoin acts like a battery.
23:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think my favorite tweet at the time was when Texas was running out of power a few years ago, and everything was freezing, and I say, oh, great.
23:28
[SPEAKER_00]: They can put those big coins back into the grid, then.
23:30
[SPEAKER_00]: No, it's not a battery, it has one aspect, which is that, yes, it will help serialize your business, but you're not going to get the energy back.
23:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So where does a magic come from?
23:42
[SPEAKER_00]: The magic come from the fact that Bitcoin holders are willing to scroll a ton of money out of the window to use proof of work.
23:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Bitcoin holders are spending money, they do not need to spend to secure their network.
23:59
[SPEAKER_00]: that expense can help stabilize the grid, but not as well as a battery, a battery is a much better place to do this.
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're seeing like, oh, well, Bitcoin helps renewables, I would say, well, not necessarily because you are crowding out renewables.
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, if I'm entrepreneur and I have a battery solution for the grid, and I'm going to push my battery in the grid and I'll make money because I'll arbitrives and saying, and some people mining Bitcoin are already arbitriving it.
24:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Then there's less profit from people who might be
24:29
[SPEAKER_00]: That was a slight bullshit part, but they are real companies that did this That did it very well.
24:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I you know, I actually used to trade natural gas For well, build trading algorithms for natural gas for Goldman Sachs, so I know that market a bit and indeed sometimes you have negative prices We're natural gas.
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's really expensive to store it and it turns out you can't just like let it out in the atmosphere
24:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So what do you do is it when it's so cheap anyone you have lots of it And yeah, so some people companies to do this and then all of a sudden they realize wait those AI data centers They're being built very quickly You know, they are on like venture capital timelines where it's like we need to get the cluster running right away We need to have results right away You know, you saw this with a colossus clusters for example from XAI they had to bring I think guest turbines because it's just you know having enough power and a great And so those companies indeed have been involved in providing
25:19
[SPEAKER_00]: energy for that centers.
25:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
25:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I say like companies like course I have to say for example, which is in this saw, which was in the Bitcoin mining market in this now in the idea that the center power market.
25:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, few others.
25:33
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I remember we had Adam from, from course, scientific on the show, and yeah, was really, really impressed with what they were doing.
25:42
[SPEAKER_03]: But to kind of recenter on Tesos, you know, it's, I want to make sure that we really understand, you know, where your guys' unique market footing and positioning is.
25:53
[SPEAKER_03]: I think when people look at Ethereum, they say, OK, Ethereum's been around for a long time, and they've got a lot of stable coins and d-fi.
26:03
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, people's think, okay, it's been around for a long time and it's got a lot of meme coins and it's really fast, right?
26:08
[SPEAKER_03]: You could really, you know, have a lot of transactions.
26:11
[SPEAKER_03]: How do we kind of position Tesos?
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a couple of things from a technology called perspective.
26:18
[SPEAKER_00]: It has, I think a lot of stability, right?
26:21
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been around for a long time, long time, long time, long time, almost as long as, as a serial number as long as not as long as not as long as a serial number.
26:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Not as long as a serial number.
26:31
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's been there for a while.
26:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been very stable.
26:34
[SPEAKER_00]: It has progressed step by step.
26:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And it has a history of being always technologically close to different tier.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Not another one is a different tier, but it's always progressed and gotten better and better.
26:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you want to build your project and you don't want to be chain hopping, I think this is a great feature to have.
26:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And in some sense, a serium got stuck.
26:55
[SPEAKER_00]: They ended up outsourcing their
26:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Technological scaling to L2s, which were done online with the ACRM because it's them which were mostly VC funded.
27:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the base change for Ethereum hasn't really kept up with the technology.
27:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So Tesla says it's an all-coin, it's an old coin, but it's well, it's an old blockchain, sorry.
27:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It's an old blockchain, but it is still technologically at the forefront.
27:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And that is very rare.
27:22
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a very, very few like this.
27:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you want this kind of maturity and in the same tiny stability to stay present, that I think is a strong suit.
27:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, you talk about the speed of solar now, but if you're using a,
27:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He's selling, for example, on top of Tizzos, which is an EVM combat speedy Tizzone.
27:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, you have latency under a second.
27:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So you can have this very high latency.
27:46
[SPEAKER_00]: We demonstrated on Tizzos a million transaction per second.
27:50
[SPEAKER_00]: We spiral rollups a few years ago.
27:54
[SPEAKER_00]: We're building with Tizzos X a million transaction per second sequentially.
27:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot of progress on Tizzos from a particularly
28:05
[SPEAKER_00]: that the chain today bears little resemblance in terms of what it can do when it's capacity to the chain when it's launched.
28:14
[SPEAKER_00]: In terms of use cases, this has mostly been known for, well, it was known initially for RWS when they were called security tokens in 2019.
28:23
[SPEAKER_00]: There was a
28:28
[SPEAKER_00]: NFTs, especially in the art space, and there's a striving art community on Tazos.
28:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So many people in crypto, when they are art collectors, even if Tazos today doesn't have the market share that they just do have, they will know Tazos, because they know that the best artists are on Tazos, and are maintained on Tazos.
28:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a fantastic community on this side.
28:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And then just a bunch of other projects, which are beyond Tazos, you know, there's uranium that I mentioned earlier.
28:58
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, a versioning DFI activity on a link.
29:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a it's a combination of of a different sex.
29:07
[SPEAKER_03]: I love it.
29:09
[SPEAKER_03]: And what kind of when we think about some of these recent upgrades, I know soul was the very recent upgrade that y'all undertook.
29:18
[SPEAKER_03]: It tells a little bit about what happened here.
29:21
[SPEAKER_03]: I think the biggest thing that I saw in the media was simplified staking, just super easy staking and some better security guarantees.
29:31
[SPEAKER_03]: But walk us through this big upgrade.
29:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but actually,
29:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, so all is not a big upgrade.
29:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a small upgrade.
29:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So you know, they don't all have to be that big.
29:41
[SPEAKER_00]: The main thing in Seoul is that we introduce BLS signatures for the bakers, which means that it takes less space.
29:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going from a gigabyte today for people starring the chain to store all the signature to like 60-timers, or a much longer amount once people adopt the BLSs.
30:05
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a huge gain, but essentially it comes up stream of reducing the latency and getting more economic security by getting in every bakery to participate.
30:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So it prepares for more things, but the main benefits that we'll get out of it is reducing the latency of the base chain.
30:21
[SPEAKER_00]: So the model we have right now, which is one big roll-up, and roll-up people associate usually with horizontal scaling, where you have many roll-ups, or like
30:32
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the type of we're seeing you see in the CRM ecosystem, this is quite different.
30:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Is this closer to what's the flow blockchain did?
30:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you remember the flow blockchain.
30:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So you just have a single rollup.
30:45
[SPEAKER_00]: You're essentially decoupling the staking and consensus from the execution.
30:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have one big rollup, this is six.
30:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And in other words, that you have the core blockchain.
30:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is six by itself,
31:00
[SPEAKER_00]: made in C's, you know, in the tens to hundreds of milliseconds, whereas the chain itself will have probably a block time around three or four seconds, which, you know, list you have a more decentralized ecosystem.
31:10
[SPEAKER_00]: You can still do staking on tables with like a starting connection and a Raspberry Pi.
31:15
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to have a massively expensive computer in a data center, like you would need for a sold-on-out, for example.
31:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But it still gives you finality in like six, eight seconds.
31:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the combination of like your transaction
31:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And a fraction of a second, and then you have like the finality in just a few seconds is pretty good, uh, sweet spot.
31:36
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'm curious what goes into these upgrades because as you mentioned earlier, one of the big drawbacks are complaints that people tend to have with the theorem is that the updates and these upgrades take longer than expected.
31:49
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't come out as often as people expect.
31:51
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't catch it up to some of the newer blockchain products, which means that it kind of remains more so lagging behind in terms of like speed and efficiency and stuff like that.
32:01
[SPEAKER_02]: What goes into these?
32:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Because you all have been able to keep up more.
32:05
[SPEAKER_02]: You all have been able to put these out to stay a little bit more on top of it when it comes to it, at least in comparison to Ethereum.
32:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So it got me thinking, like, what goes into this?
32:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, why does it maybe take longer for something like Ethereum to kind of do this and catch up the speed when you all at Tazos have been able to do that more effectively?
32:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it will.
32:29
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the company is in a physical system that builds up grades, like nomadic lab, truly tech, for example.
32:36
[SPEAKER_00]: They've been doing it for years.
32:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think there's a lot of institutional knowledge that's been built around upgrades.
32:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a fact that because it's so core to the Tados DNA, those upgrades, I think we just come in really, really good at two exam, which, you know, it's not, I don't think it's a score
32:58
[SPEAKER_00]: as it is.
33:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, we had some of the like lead Ethereum developers on here.
33:04
[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, we actually just had one, I think, around April ish, April or March ish.
33:09
[SPEAKER_02]: And he was talking to us.
33:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And he basically was saying, on the pod, it's like, you know, number one, it's harder to upgrade in an existing layer one than it is to just create a newer one that's more advanced, which makes complete sense.
33:21
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think the other side of that is, I've some,
33:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you have to worry about L2s and you made a point to this earlier to say that they were more reliant on L2s and that was the second half of what he said is that like we don't really need or necessarily maybe even want the main chain to be as fast and complex as modern L1s because that's what we have L2s for.
33:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Like do you think that that's a good thing or a bad thing?
33:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It strongly depends on like what your L2s are and the developers in the detail.
33:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
33:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And unfortunately, I would say like a serum L2s give L2s a bad name.
33:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I think of L2s as a technology as a scaling solution, technology called solution.
34:02
[SPEAKER_00]: But L2s are venture funded business in the, you know, they're not algorithms, they're venture funded business.
34:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And that makes a big, that makes a big difference for, for the change.
34:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So first of all, L2s on a
34:20
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a small committee with Coinbase and Optimistic level.
34:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Some delegates of those who can push security upgrades.
34:27
[SPEAKER_00]: They can change the contract.
34:30
[SPEAKER_03]: on this area, but they could get hacked, they could get they could get hacked and then you could have some issues because and then it has happened.
34:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It has happened for example to what they were called the accident.
34:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, run it running.
34:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So like the multi-sync by North Korea, I believe that going away is probably very, very skilled at keeping those keys secure.
34:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So the difference is what was running is that it was a bridge.
34:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So you kind of have to I think those were life keys, which are easier to steal.
34:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas here, you know, you can have like this cold keys for security upgrades.
35:03
[SPEAKER_00]: But nonetheless, you're, you know, from a, also from a legal perspective, they have control over this thing.
35:11
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no, Coinbase has pretty much as much control
35:20
[SPEAKER_00]: on base and they do on their own a book.
35:23
[SPEAKER_00]: The second thing is that
35:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, they are custodial.
35:27
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a big difference.
35:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they have their own opinions.
35:31
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if tomorrow or when busy side is better for them to be in an L1, they'll become an L1.
35:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have to, you know, they can put their own wallet.
35:40
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have to work with the ACRM ecosystem.
35:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And to those hits differently, it's just a part of the protocol, the part of the, that's how the protocol works.
35:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that makes a world of difference.
35:56
[SPEAKER_00]: A serium wants to use roll-ups for horizontal scaling to a logic stand.
36:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So the idea is that you have this many roll-ups and then it can talk to each other and that spreads the computational load.
36:10
[SPEAKER_00]: But people do not want to use all these different roll-ups.
36:14
[SPEAKER_00]: You fragment the liquidity, you give a bad user experience.
36:21
[SPEAKER_00]: People don't often think of monolithic.
36:23
[SPEAKER_00]: solutions as good for roll-ups.
36:25
[SPEAKER_00]: They say, oh, yeah, of course, you can be monolithic.
36:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Like Solana, or you can have roll-ups, like Ethereum, but you can have a monolithic roll-up.
36:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, to be fair, something called RBLig that may gaze, for example, it's like one big monolithic roll-up.
36:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think it's an overlooked scaling solution, and that's the one that's being pursued with the Tesla sex roadmap.
36:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And you have a better off scaling a huge rollup than you are scaling your L1.
36:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's something that so long I completely miss is.
36:58
[SPEAKER_03]: interesting.
36:59
[SPEAKER_03]: And like, yeah, there's a lot of different angles to take this, but is there something in the Tezos X roadmap or or sort of something up immediately next that will kind of unveil, you know, your guys is next to next point that I'm trying to say basically like,
37:17
[SPEAKER_03]: you know, I guess what is next to take you guys to that next level because soul, you know, here I'm reading the media and it seems like soul was a big upgrade, but you're saying we still got so much more for a bigger upgrade kind of coming.
37:28
[SPEAKER_03]: So like what paint does that picture?
37:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, you know, the PR, the PR reported said it was a well.
37:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, so the, um, the, um,
37:41
[SPEAKER_00]: The big thing to expect, look, there's going to be a lot of scaling, but everyone's scaling, and everyone's saying like, you know, we get millions of transaction per second, tens of thousands transactions per second, whatever.
37:51
[SPEAKER_00]: They always appeared of time around 2021, where you could see scaling anxiety.
37:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Like people were deploying protocol, and then we're saying, like, is your chain going to scale?
37:59
[SPEAKER_00]: What happened?
38:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
38:00
[SPEAKER_00]: This two-puppler, am I going to like build these fees?
38:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of this killing anxiety is gone.
38:05
[SPEAKER_00]: For people, they might be interested about the cost and the CRM, but they don't deploy that much on Ethereum.
38:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think a lot of that is gone, and costs still matters.
38:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's been widely accepted now, that's possible.
38:17
[SPEAKER_00]: If you actually, if you are actually a live player in terms of pushing a good, you can actually get the throughput.
38:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think what we'll get more attention on Tazos, is some of the work that's going on for developer experience, in particular is a support for mainstream programming languages.
38:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is a project called Justice or GSTZ, which is about supporting JavaScript natively on TASOS.
38:40
[SPEAKER_00]: That means, and now there's been some projects around this, which type created compile it or simply script or compile it, and there's always a bit of a catch.
38:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas here it's really no take JavaScript, take existing JavaScript libraries with no restriction and just run them directly on a blockchain.
38:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can do that with Java.
39:01
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can do that with Doppinets as well, and that, I would say opens up the markets to developers who may have a word of this in the best.
39:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, well said, man, you know, I got one more question for you, and it's just in regards to kind of where we're at in the market, because there's been just a lot of confusion, right?
39:23
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a little bit of a stranger cycle so far.
39:27
[SPEAKER_02]: I think in previous cycles, people have been
39:30
[SPEAKER_02]: nervous about like how long they last, you know, the ways that altcoins behave and run, the verticals that perform well, the ones that don't.
39:39
[SPEAKER_02]: And there's just a lot of, I guess confusion and questions that people have, where do you think we're at in the market cycle?
39:45
[SPEAKER_02]: And will we see some sort of classic top around that 15 to 18 month mark after the having and then get a big bear market?
39:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I don't think this is, you know, I do agree that we've had this likes before your cycle type of thing.
40:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
40:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think they're even by the having.
40:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think they're having as much of an impact.
40:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think it's been a better predictor of that.
40:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, I wish I really wish I knew, you know, sing, sing, sing, sing, sing, sing,
40:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Now it's still still going, I think.
40:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I would watch the DAT space carefully.
40:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, say maybe some systemic risk being built in here.
40:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I like to please a game.
40:35
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, it's a year from now.
40:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been a crash, and someone told you, and someone tells you, well, your sign should have been this, and you say, oh, geez, of course.
40:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So what can you feel in here that would be a sign?
40:50
[SPEAKER_00]: You remember, I think one of the sign,
40:52
[SPEAKER_00]: of the top in was it like 2021 or was the slow use.
40:58
[SPEAKER_00]: thing is like, you all of them get it already.
41:01
[SPEAKER_00]: You can use multiple slopes used on one monkey.
41:06
[SPEAKER_03]: I remember in, yeah, the top in 2017, it was the day that Bitcoin futures launched and everybody was like, the institutions are here, the Bitcoin futures are here and then everybody just shorted the market to the ground.
41:18
[SPEAKER_00]: They were here.
41:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
41:20
[SPEAKER_00]: They launched, they launched the futures on purpose.
41:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You played the bubble.
41:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, to the public, the bubble, to the public.
41:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And I didn't call it like, you know, cut that day.
41:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But I always thought that futures in general were bearish.
41:34
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, because essentially like it was bearish in the short term, but in the long term we wouldn't have the ETFs without the Bitcoin futures It was like that necessary pain in the short term.
41:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we would.
41:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, it was the it was a weird SEC thing of the way the SEC thinks about ETFs Is bonkers like We got us on the online class.
41:58
[SPEAKER_00]: We got us on the internet like so here's what they say so an ETF
42:03
[SPEAKER_00]: is not a derivative product.
42:05
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really interesting.
42:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It is not a derivative product.
42:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not based on a price of something.
42:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's based on an in-kind conversion.
42:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you have an ETF of the S.N.P500, you take an authorized participant, like Jane Street.
42:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And it will go to the ETF issuer.
42:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And they will say, here's a stock of the S.N.P500, give me the ETF.
42:25
[SPEAKER_00]: or here's ETF, keep you back stocks on the S&P 500.
42:29
[SPEAKER_00]: That's how our ETFs work, and that's great.
42:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It makes its way more robust, way more robust than the derivative products where you depend on the price.
42:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, what does the S&P do?
42:39
[SPEAKER_00]: They go and say, oh, wait a second.
42:41
[SPEAKER_00]: There need to be a developed market for the price of the underlying.
42:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Otherwise, how will we price CETF?
42:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Because people will look at the price of the underlying.
42:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And no, you actually don't need that because you're not, you know, it's not financially settled.
42:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It settled in kind and you don't need that.
42:57
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need a spot market.
42:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the argument that the SEC has used, and it wasn't just for crypto, they would use it for other commodities and others saying that you need the welding of spot markets for the underlying of the ETF, makes zero sense.
43:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
43:11
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, they used the futures market because they figured like, oh, so they in their mind, the exchange on which the underlying trade is very important.
43:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And so they were like, well, you know, it's a CME.
43:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We know the CME.
43:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's fine.
43:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't want to give any credence to those others or exchanges, you know, who are like, who call themselves exchanges, but not even exchanges, because we get to decide what it exchanges.
43:36
[SPEAKER_03]: Do you think that these these ETFs like obviously Bitcoin and Ethereum like Black Rocks kind of take in these and push them and you know wealth managers and advisors are starting to slowly come on board So this is all positive, but do you think that every crypto is gonna like kind of Need an ETF or get an ETF because I saw the SEC just released generalized guidelines for Cryptos to kind of have a fast track to get ETFs.
44:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, oh
44:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I need it as a strong word, right?
44:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think we need oxygen after that.
44:09
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we're doing once.
44:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we need food, oxygen, and
44:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And water.
44:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe housing.
44:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that we need a triple inverse lever, T.I.F.
44:19
[SPEAKER_00]: on those coin.
44:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Nonetheless, those will exist.
44:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I need our third.
44:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I need this.
44:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I know.
44:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we'll see a lot of them.
44:27
[SPEAKER_00]: The main reason for it, I would say, is like compatibility with the existing world.
44:31
[SPEAKER_00]: People can keep it on their brokerage accounts.
44:34
[SPEAKER_00]: People can put it into tax advantage saving plans.
44:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, where there's a D.I.A.A.
44:38
[SPEAKER_00]: for what gets in the US or other plans in
44:42
[SPEAKER_00]: uh, they can, you know, they can, they can, they can borrow against it, they can, to a, yeah, also, also interesting.
44:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's of the, yeah, it serves a purpose.
44:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely.
44:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I want to go back to one thing that you mentioned before you let you go, and it was about the idea of the cycles, and you said you think that the cycles have less to do with the having and more to do with interest rate policy, and that's not something that I don't think anyone's actually talked about on the show before.
45:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Can you just explain a little bit about your perspective in opinion as to why that's the case and how it works?
45:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so, I mean, we saw a lot of the 2021 boom, for example, which was not just in crypto, but like, you know, a lot of, you know, a lot of risk-arrant asset classes, uh, when the interests were written down to zero, it was COVID and also when the government had it out, free checks to everyone.
45:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So, there's one aspect.
45:37
[SPEAKER_00]: There's also the case that low-age risk would policy, you have a tendency to be inflationary, and so in an inflationary environment,
45:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we've had fairly high interest rates since 2022, and despite that, we've seen a bull market in crypto.
45:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe that betrays what I'm not betrays a thesis.
46:01
[SPEAKER_00]: But in general, I would say, like, for we've had a decade of low interest rate because there was not much
46:06
[SPEAKER_00]: innovation happening.
46:08
[SPEAKER_00]: There was not a lot of technological innovation.
46:10
[SPEAKER_00]: People were rebuilding SaaS company, after SaaS company.
46:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And so yeah, you have a bit of growth.
46:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But essentially, people had no idea where to spend money.
46:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And I believe there's like the reason the interest rates are up is, well, one is to to wipe up a lot of the inflation that happened.
46:26
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, they stayed up and part of it is because now we have innovation with AI.
46:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's massive capex.
46:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah.
46:33
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of money that's being absorbed to build a lot of data centers, to build a lot of GPUs, to build a lot of energy, and that's going to keep rates up.
46:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, if people are looking for different investments, and they say, well, you know, nothing's yielding anything.
46:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything's speculative.
46:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I might as well buy, you know, some random meme coin, that's one thing.
46:53
[SPEAKER_00]: But on the other hand, if you start having other opportunities and if you start seeing a lot of growth, it's a bit different.
46:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, why hasn't that been the case?
47:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Because fundamentally, maybe crypto doesn't compete with investments, maybe it competes with gambling.
47:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say a lot of the activity on memecoins has been gathering driven rather than anything else.
47:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And so in that case, you could survive like high interest rates environment.
47:22
[SPEAKER_00]: But the fact that the fact that directionally we're probably going to see lower rates in the future, I think gives more reasing room to the current markets.
47:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think there's something that could shock it.
47:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say a recession shock set.
47:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the main factor, maybe more than interest rate is risk on or risk off, like depression or not.
47:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Because when things go wrong, the first thing people do is say we're going to sell the funny thing that they bought, whether it was a funny monkey or somewhere
47:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, to more, you tell them you might lose your job and you might have to, uh, you know, you're going to need to face a rent.
48:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, their rent is not an eliminated in Bitcoin.
48:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Their rent is not an eliminated in a indoor coin or anything else is an eliminated in dollars.
48:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to sell to hold the safer assets.
48:11
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, no, it's a good point.
48:13
[SPEAKER_03]: And, you know, I've, I've definitely kind of.
48:16
[SPEAKER_03]: lost my belief in sort of the having dictating these cycles as well because it just seems like it coincidentally lines up with the four year presidential cycle and liquidity cycle and interest rate cycle as well and so everybody's like you know look it's the four year having cycle but it's just a coincidence I think and so it's the spurious sort of correlation that we all
48:36
[SPEAKER_03]: making our mind.
48:37
[SPEAKER_03]: And so yeah, I'm I've got on record.
48:39
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm I'm of the belief that this having cycle kind of ends and we kind of get this extended extended bull market where we've got lower interest rates.
48:47
[SPEAKER_03]: We've got these.
48:48
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not the super cycle theory.
48:51
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, no, not the super cycle, but just something a little a little less pre-programmed as every 18 months after the having.
49:01
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a
49:01
[SPEAKER_03]: you know, a 10x and then a 80% drop.
49:04
[SPEAKER_03]: It's like, I feel like that really, you know, that captured the imagination of traders in the early parts of the cycle, but now it's like the people who are actually trading this with with real money, do the black rocks and the real hedge funds, and I don't think they really are looking at the having cycle as much as they're looking at other
49:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I think what could pop it as well is, so you know, ultimately, you know, the AI is fundamentally transformative.
49:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, initially for the best, perhaps the longer-term for the worst, but nonetheless, extremely transformative.
49:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And that being said, if, for example, you have progress stalls, like, let's say progress stalls, people are not making the revenue that they expect to make, currently,
49:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And somehow investors lose confidence, like I could imagine, you know, you're like this investors lose confidence and the cap, you know, like they overspending cap eggs, they spend too fast, they don't really need the capacity and you started having an unwinding of all the investments in the NRI is.
50:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Taking such a huge part now of CSNB and of other assets that you could see a market crash from it.
50:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And if there's a market crash and people have their savings in the markets, then they're going to say, shit, I don't have as much investors.
50:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And I said, I would, they also say that they also sell their frontier internet coin.
50:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So market crash would take down crypto with it.
50:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, that would be an AI space.
50:32
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, that would definitely be
50:35
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, cock was for concern.
50:38
[SPEAKER_03]: It just seems like, and I know we're going on and on, but there's just so many, I want to have you for another hour, but I know we're coming up at the top.
50:43
[SPEAKER_03]: But like, you have like this government financing it with just enormous loads of deficits and debt, and all that kind of stuff.
50:50
[SPEAKER_03]: That just doesn't seem like it's going to be slowing down anytime soon.
50:54
[SPEAKER_03]: Especially as you have the labor force participation rate, completely falling.
50:58
[SPEAKER_03]: So they need to stimulate the economy because people aren't working.
51:01
[SPEAKER_03]: So they're going to continue to debase.
51:02
[SPEAKER_03]: They're going to continue to
51:03
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, lower interest rates and I know Trump over here really likes the idea of negative interest rates and so he really wants to get rates real rates to negative and that could be further further sort of, you know, upside for the market.
51:18
[SPEAKER_03]: But, man, we could go on and on, but Arthur, I just want to make sure that everybody who's watching could could follow along with your journey and could know the right resources to follow along with Tezos or you big on X
51:30
[SPEAKER_03]: Do you blog, where could people fall along with your journey and we'll put it in the show notes below?
51:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I tweet, so you can find me on Twitter slash x.
51:40
[SPEAKER_00]: That's Arthur B. I don't blog.
51:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I should blog more often.
51:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I I blog maybe once a year.
51:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I like this word for him, I guess.
51:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Perfect.
51:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Perfect.
51:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm with you as well.
51:50
[SPEAKER_03]: I like the short form stuff Arthur, thank you so much for joining us.
51:54
[SPEAKER_03]: I know everybody at home listening thoroughly enjoyed that Brendan thanks for joining as well.
51:59
[SPEAKER_03]: and everybody at home watching.
52:01
[SPEAKER_03]: Come back same time, same place.
52:03
[SPEAKER_03]: Next week we're gonna have some more great guests for you here on the Crypto 101 podcast.
52:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Take care.