Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Tesla Exec says FSD years behind Waymo

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Tesla Exec says FSD years behind Waymo · Elon Musk Podcast

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  Your ultimate authority for daily Elon Musk news.
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  Exploring the world's biggest ideas with your host Will
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  Walden. There's something new every day.
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  Tesla's head of Autopilot and AI software just delivered some
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  uncomfortable truths about the company's autonomous driving
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  capabilities. They told an interviewer that
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  Tesla's Full Self driving technology still trails Google's
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  Waymo by a couple of years, despite years of bold promises
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  by Elon Musk about robo taxis and coast to coast autonomous
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  drives. This admission comes at a
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  particularly awkward time for Tesla, which plans to launch its
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  robo taxi service Pilot next month and has spent years
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  marketing itself as the leader in automotive autonomy.
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  Now the timing raises serious questions about whether Tesla's
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  self driving promises match the technical reality on the ground.
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  This assessment breaks from Tesla's usual pattern or
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  projecting confidence about its autonomous driving timeline,
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  making the comments all the more striking for engineers and
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  consumers who've been waiting for Tesla to deliver on its self
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  driving vision. Now the gap between Tesla and
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  Wemo comes down to fundamental technical choices made years
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  ago. Tesla chose a camera only
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  approach called Tesla Vision, while Wemo equipped its vehicles
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  with expensive Lidar sensors that cost around $75,000 per
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  unit. Elon Musk famously called
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  lighter a crutch and bet Tesla's autonomous strategy to cameras,
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  and they cost between a dollar and $10 per sensor.
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  This decision seems smart from a cost perspective, but it created
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  technical challenges that Tesla still hasn't solved.
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  Now the performance difference shows up in real world testing
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  scenarios. Business Insider recently tested
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  Tesla's Full Self Driving software and watched it drive
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  into a bike lane before running a red lane when MO's vehicle
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  took a different route during the same test and avoided both
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  problems entirely. These aren't edge cases or minor
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  glitches, but fundamental safety issues that highlight the
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  technical gap that they acknowledged The Tesla's camera
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  only approach faces inherit limitations that make autonomous
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  driving harder to achieve. Cameras rely on external
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  lighting conditions and struggle in situations more lighter
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  excels like detecting objects in complete darkness or measuring
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  precise distances to other vehicles.
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  The software engineer admitted that solving autonomous driving
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  with vision only sensors is technically challenging, but
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  argues it's more valuable for the world to have a low cost
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  solution. This trade off between cost and
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  capability has become Tesla's defining characteristic in the
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  autonomous driving space. The cost argument has become
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  less compelling as lidar prices have dropped dramatically.
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  Modern lidar units now cost under $1000, cheap enough for
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  Toyota to include them in a $20,000 Chinese market electric
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  vehicle. Tesla's cars cost twice as much,
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  but still rely exclusively on cameras now.
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  Power efficiency is another factor, and cameras use .9 watts
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  each, compared to 10 watts for a Luminar Halo lidar unit.
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  Tesla's Hardware 4 cars use eight external cameras, so the
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  total power consumption difference isn't as dramatic as
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  it appears. Tesla's struggle with autonomous
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  driving matter because they affect the entire electric
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  vehicle industry's capabilities. When the market leader in
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  electric vehicles repeatedly missing self driving deadlines,
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  that undermines consumer confidence in the brand in in
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  autonomous technology across all manufacturers.
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  Tesla has been promising a fully autonomous Coast to Coast Dr.
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  since 2016, and each missed deadline makes the next promise
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  harder to believe for some consumers.
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  Now this credibility gap extends beyond Tesla to other companies
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  making similar claims about autonomous driving deadlines.
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  Now, the admission also effects Tesla's business model and stock
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  valuation. Tesla trades at a premium
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  compared to traditional automakers, partly because
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  investors believe the company will generate revenue from
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  autonomous robo taxis. If Tesla's self driving
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  technology really lags Waymo by years, that robo taxi revenue
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  might take much longer to materialize, And investors
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  expect the gap between Tesla's market valuation and its actual
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  autonomous driving capabilities could force a significant
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  repricing of the stock. Meanwhile, Tesla sales problems
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  extend beyond autonomous driving into core business fundamentals.
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  The company's global deliveries dropped 13% in the first quarter
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  of this year, while EV sales increased in the United States,
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  Europe, and China. A Musk blames the decline on
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  factory retooling for the refresh model.
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  Why? Claiming the Tesla had to shut
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  down production facilities worldwide to implement changes.
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  He insists that retooling was necessary and timed for the
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  first quarter, when seasonal demand traditionally runs lower.
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  Now, Musk claims Tesla has seen a major rebound in demand
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  following the factory retooling, but the sales data doesn't
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  support this assertion yet. Tesla's April numbers continue
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  declining, especially in Europe, where some countries saw drops.
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  As large as 80% of China represents Tesla's second
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  largest market, and sales there fell 9% in April, while the
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  overall Chinese electric vehicle market grew 38%.
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  Now, these numbers suggest Tesla's problems go deeper than
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  temporary factory shutdowns, and the sales decline coincides with
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  Musk's controversial political activities and his relationship
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  with President Donald Trump. Many analysts point to Musk's
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  political involvement as a factor in Tesla's declining
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  sales, particularly among environmentally conscious
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  consumers who traditionally buy electric vehicles.
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  The Musk discusses this concern, asking how much consumers really
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  care about a CEO's political views when making purchasing
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  decisions. The question reveals a
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  disconnect between Musk's perception and market reality.
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  As consumer sentiment data suggests, political associations
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  do influence buying decisions for many Tesla customers now.
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  Tesla's current situation illustrates the challenge of
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  managing technical innovation alongside public expectations.
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  Though the company built its reputation on ambitious promises
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  about autonomous driving and sustainable transportation, but
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  delivering on those promises has proven more difficult than
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  anticipated. Now, this honest assessment of
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  Tesla's position relative to Waymo provides a rare glimpse
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  into the technical reality behind the marketing claims.
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  That admission the Tesla trails Waymo by years contradicts the
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  company's public messaging about being ready to launch robo taxi
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  services. Now it's a fresh departure for
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  Tesla's usual confident public statements about autonomous
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  driving. The willingness to acknowledge
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  this position relative to competitor suggests the company
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  might be adopting a more realistic approach to
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  communicating about its self driving timeline.
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  And whether this honesty translates into more achievable
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  promises and better execution remains to be seen.
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  But it provides A clearer picture of where Tesla actually
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  stands in the race toward full autonomy.
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