Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Tariff Pain Begins⌛Flight To Crypto?🔥Market Update

Transcript

Tariff Pain Begins⌛Flight To Crypto?🔥Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Today we'd be diving into tariff's day one. What kind
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: of impact is it going to have on crypto? We'll
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: break it down for you. My name is Paul Barren.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Welcome back in a tech path. Let's get started. I
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: do want to thank our sponsor, Coinbase. It's going to
• 0:18
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• 0:20
  Speaker 1: guys can go out there and get eight bitcoin, a
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: ton of all coins, all available over on the coinbase platform.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Check it out. All right, let's go over to a
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: couple of points I want to hit on first. Is
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: massive tariff on millions of Americans now, of course is
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: in effect. Purchase just went into effect, and of course
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: this could queue the chaos. Obviously a lot happening right now,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: potentially more than doubling the cost for a lot of
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: the cheap products coming out of places like Tea, Moon,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: areas like that, mostly of course in China that Americans
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: are looking to scoop up or have been, maybe not
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: so much, anymore more than eighty percent of total US
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: e commerce shipments right now. Twenty twenty two word deminimus imports.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what the twenty three and four
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: data was, but interesting that I went all back to
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: twenty two CBP said one point three six billion packages
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: came to the United States. So clearly we are a
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: destination hub. And many people are saying now I can't
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: afford to buy from Timu and couldn't afford to buy
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: in this country already, so it is becoming even more so.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: The kind of impact this may have on the Chinese
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: market is interesting. So I don't know that we're going
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: to get confident data out of China. This course is
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: a TEAMU fulfillment center. I guess doesn't look too busy.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Other things that are happening is prices are going up
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: right here. If you look at the Xbox, people are
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: pushing back on this one, even though you can get
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: all of these devices over on eBay for a lot
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: cheaper right now, but maybe a little bit more expensive.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Point is is all these are old devices, and yet
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: the price is going up obvious reasons because of the tariffs.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I think Xbox is going to be in a little
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: bit of a pain along with many device manufacturers out there,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: maybe through the summer as we start to see more
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: and more pressure going into the market. Here was a
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: company called Wisecam, and if you guys don't know them.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: They're like a little device where you have kind of
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: IP cameras. They just got their first tariff bill. They
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: imported one hundred and sixty seven thousand dollars of smart
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: floodlights and they paid two hundred and fifty five thousand
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: in tariff fees. And many people were saying, hey, you
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: don't believe us. We got receipts. Here, here's the receipt
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: right here. Boom, that's the receipt for it. You can
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: kind of see the duty of two hundred and fifty
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: five thousand. So this is really hitting a lot of companies.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: The question will be is what does this look like
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: on the consumer layer? How do American consumers navigate this?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick. This
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: will get into a little bit about how much we're
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: going to see in terms of reduced shipments. We're going
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: to be by a third starting next week.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Take a look, So you're really expecting a third of
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: the traffic to drop off next week?
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: Good morning, Becky, And yes that's right. According to our
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: own port Optimizers, which measures the loadings in Asia will
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: be down just a little bit over thirty five percent
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: next week. Compared to last year, and it's a precipitous
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: drop in volume with a number of major American retailers
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs, and
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: that makes up about forty five percent of our business
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: here in Los Angeles, Becky. Now, what we have heard
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: in talking directly to CEOs and senior executives of the
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: shipping lines is they'll try to add a couple of
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: port calls in along the Southeast Asia routes where cargo
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: is still moving, albeit at a ten percent tariff. But
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: realistically speaking, until some accord or framework can be reached
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: with China, the volume coming out of there, save a
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: couple of different commodities will be very light at best, all.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Right, So that's going to be a big of a hit,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: a bit of a hit on the China's economy. If
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: you look at CNBC's statement right here, US tariff and
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: certainty is now putting China's Christmas made products in question,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And of course that will be a big deal because
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of this is timing right now. If you
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: look at this, if you don't start producing in the
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: next couple of weeks, you're going to start missing black
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Friday and Christmas, and remember you have Prime Day in July,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: which apparently now is going to already be torpedoed. I
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: don't know how Amazon is going to play into this.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Probably we'll find out here very soon, but a lot
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: of this is starting to impact Let me know in
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the comments down below. Has this impacted your daily life yet?
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And if it has, let me know how it's impacted you.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: So just drop some comments down below. Let's go into
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: this right here. Apple is saying that tariffs is now
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: going to cost the company up to nine hundred million
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: this quarter. Maybe they can take some of the savings
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: that they have been charging and cheating all of these
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: developers and creators and actually apply it toward trying to
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: save their company. We'll see. I'm not a big fan
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: of Apple right now, after all this mess that's been
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: going on. Just in China quietly exempts tariffs on forty
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: billion dollars worth of goods. Now, why do they need
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: US goods with tariffs? I don't understand. I thought this
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: was a self sustaining economy over there, So what is
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: forty billion dollars of US goods not getting tariffed on
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: over there? In China. I'm gonna have to do some
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: research on that one. Let's take a look at this
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: just in. China also says it's not going to engage
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: in extortion or coercion by the United States, This of
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: course coming from Brick News. Remember, China is very good
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: at propaganda, and you have to understand how they go
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: about negotiation, just like any country, and I think anybody,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: they are going to utilize every tool they can, including
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: things like this out there, to try to put more
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: pressure on the Trump administration. Bitcoin Hoddler now is looking
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: at unrealized profits of near three hundred and fifty percent,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: as maybe this one hundred k range could risk a
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: little bit of a sell off, and if you're in profit,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: would that put you in a position to where you
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: would sell at one hundred k. Is one hundred k
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: really the number, because really that's not even an all
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: time high. I don't know. I think that might be
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit overcooked order book data to that bulls
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: may not succeed in keeping the upside going. That is
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: still a big question mark because there's still a lot
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: of variety here. I think from a macro side of things,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: if we do get a rate cut this year. I'm
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: still questioning whether or not we will. That is going
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: to have a lot of impetus on where we're going
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: to see the price of bitcoin going above the one
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: hundred and eight. Do we see may become a very
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: active month and possibly kind of that summer lull that
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: typically happens in a lot of traditional finance. So here
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: you have Jeff Bezos who's filing to sell up to
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: five billion worth of Amazon stock. Granted, many people will say, Okay,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: does he know something around is the market possibly trending?
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: That?
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: I think really as the number one retailer and the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: most Chinese products being sold across America through Amazon, that's
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: why we're going to see a bit of a hit,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: And of course I think he knows that coming in.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Now what does that mean long term? Nobody really knows.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: But I think the big point you got to look
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: at is file the unemployment rate. Now it's remaining at
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: four point two percent. Though this is a formidable unemployment,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: the fact that it did not go up is a
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: good thing. So when you look at chair Palell's position,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: he's trying to retain jobs, and of course all of
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: that is going to center around how is the effect
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: of inflation, which will be tariff induced most likely start
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: to push into the job scenario. And that's the key
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: that I'm watching because the easiest cut for most businesses,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: when you look at retail businesses, hospitality businesses, it's going
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: to be an immediate impact on jobs. So we could
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: see a rise in unemployment coming on. So is this
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the calm before the storm going in? I want to
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: play a clip for you guys. This is Morgan Stanley
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: talking about maybe four things that could convince you on
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: this rally. Take a look. We need to see four things.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I mean it's not all four, but we
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: need to see some combination of these four things.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: I say.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: The first one is some deal on terras with China.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: That's the one that matters, all right, check okay. Number
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: two dubbish fed okay where they kind of get off
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: the stick. Okay. Number three, we see rates come down
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: in a more meaningful way the back end of the
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: market without growth really deteriorating, okay. And then the fourth one,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: which is probably the most part for stocks, is Ernie's visions.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Ernie's visions have been on a downward trajectory for quite
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: a while. But if that ware to turn up, so
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: maybe one or two of those together we could see
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: a breakout of this range we've been stuck in.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Does that suggest that you're not yet convinced that this
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: rally back what eight in a row I think we're
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: going today on the S and P is sustainable?
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Well, I would say this the lows could be in. Okay,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: we priced a lot of damage at forty eight hundred
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: on April seventh, there was a capitulatory move. I think
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: you know. The wildcard now is are we going to
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: have a recession? Well, that's the only way to define
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: a recession. It's a labor cycle. All this stuff about
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: negative GDP, I don't care about that. I care about
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: the do companies start laying employees off in a way
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: where then you get a next round of revisions that
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: become more serious?
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: All right?
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So he hit on a lot of the things that
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: would be key, and he did mention not all four
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: need to occur. Many of those things, if one of
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: them and others don't, would still be a very good
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: signal for the market. If you get China and the
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: US to come to some sort of terms on tariffs,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: that'll be a big deal. The EU is already negotiating
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: a zero for zero. We're starting to see some movement. Now, Remember,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: you have to actuate these scenarios for this to actually
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: cause movement, and I think that's what Trump has been
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: able to do. I'm not agreeing that the tariffs are
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: a good thing, but I am saying, if you are
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: going to use it as a negotiation ploy, you actually
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: have to follow through with it. And I think that's
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: what's happening right now. He's following through so much that
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: it's causing a lot of rough in the administration and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: many of his tariffs. Many people are now looking at
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: is this a legal issue that the president might be
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: facing around whether or not it can even be done.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Trump also suggested that maybe families should scale back. Let
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: me kind of zoom in on that, just you get
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he actually said that, but I
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: didn't get the quote, but this is what coin Telegraph
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: said saying that you should just not buy Christmas presents
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: this year. So I'm not sure that's going to go
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: over with too many Americans for sure. Other things, president's
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: power to unilaterally pose tariffs is not rooted in the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: office of the Constitutional article two power. That will be
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: a factor, but I think there's always going to be
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: an argument coming from the White House. Even if you
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: look back at how world trade has continued to decline
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: over the years, this is still just another factor I
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: think that's playing into tariffs. Further into it. It can
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: show you how this all came about in terms of
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the timeline. But some key points I want to get
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: into of the articles right down here at the bottom
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: right here, the outlook for crypto. It's a peculiararity of
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: tariffs that they apply only to goods and not services
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: or digital goods. So that's the interesting thing around cryptocurrency.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: So this is left crypto pretty much out of the
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: game in terms of impact outside the reach of traditional
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: trade barriers, and that of course still applies, but it
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: may prove to be the final validation for cryptocurrency as
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of people might look at this as the
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: possible international trade use case that has been already used
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: around the world around the use of stable coins in
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of diminishing you know, money out there around
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of these emerging markets. Because it's already starting
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: to see use cases, maybe the tariffs will start to
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: push that a little bit further other things I want
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: to hit on right here. Of course, Ran Paul says Trump,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: he's trying to get this bill co sponsored to This
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: is a bipartisan bill to strip the tariff powers from
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Trump and get Congress to come through with it.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: This.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Of course, many people are saying, well, this is just
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: you know, rhino display of what Ram Paul is doing,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: because he's not necessarily in favor of all these situations
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: that the White House is doing. I want to go
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to a clip real quick because this will go into
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: his whole idea that this is an emergency and this
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: is not the way to run a country. Take a look.
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: Well, here's the thing is. It's about emergencies. It's about
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: whether we're going to run a country under emergencies. When
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: the previous emergency with Canada and Mexico, they said, oh,
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: it was fentanyl.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know, are they.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: Alleging that fentanyl is coming from Sweden or Finland or
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: Monaco or you know. It's an emergency for eighty some
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: odd countries. And through that emergency, then they're instituting a tax,
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: which is a tariff, without the authority of Congress. So
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: I have two objections. One is the emergency, and then
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: there's the economic objection to teriffs. But primarily the debate
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: really is over whether or not you're going to have
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: the power of taxation originate in congress. This is something
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: you know, the English fought against the king doing it.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: They fought for the supremacy of parliament. And when our
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: founding fathers did this, they said, oh, taxation and the
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: power to destroy is such a power that we fear.
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: We're only going to put that in Congress, and we're
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: going to make sure that all taxes start in the
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: House of Representatives before they go to the Senate. And
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: so to have a president do it unilaterally, even if
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: you like tariffs, it's really a bad way to run
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: a country because what happens when we get you know,
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders or Karl Marx or whoever the Democrats put forward,
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: what if they become president use emergencies to you know,
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: say no more gasoline or no more gasoline powered cars.
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: We're going to say tomorrow. So emergencies are not a
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: good way to run a country. You need the separation
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: of powers in the checks and balances to ensure freedom.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: All right, So there you have Raan Paul going had
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: to point is is that there are some Republicans possibly
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: stepping outside the ranks and pushing on this right now.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Of course, his bipartisan measure to undo Trump's global tariffs
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: fails in the Senate right now, and doesn't mean they're
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: not going to stop here. I think they are still
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: going to continue to go through with this. However, once
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: this tax bill does go through, my anticipation is we
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: will see a lot less push on the tariff side,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: and all of a sudden we're going to see deals
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: being made very quickly. That is the thing I'm expecting
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: and predicting going forward. One other thing that Republicans are
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: looking on right now to count on is the tax plan,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: and of course this would boost possibly boost the economy.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: There is a catch obviously that's going to be on
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the upside for a lot of you know, the more
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: wealthy individuals, because this will start to apply to where
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: the market itself is going to be driven off of
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: where the economy is going. In course, that means all
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: these tariffs could have in a medium impact going into
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: a very very interesting summer and then holiday season. So
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: let's get into the last point I want to hit
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: on right here, and that is that the Senate is
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: looking to push through the stable coin bill before the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: end of May. This is the good news because when
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: you look at stable coins and the idea of trying
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: to diminish the dollar, the idea behind stable coins, I
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: believe is really going around that this extends the use
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of the US dollar really around the world, and consider
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: the EU dollar in the comparison of use, and you
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: look size of tether circle, et cetera. All these countries
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: that are wanting exposure to the dollar, they're now going
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to be able to get those through stable coins. This
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: could lower the dollar's value, and that actually might be
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: good because of the ability to export on a more
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: even level with other countries where the United States has
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: not necessarily been in that place because our dollar is
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: usually much greater in value. So that's the good news.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Stable coins are coming. This will only expand the market,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: I think in general, and make crypto much more of
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: a mainstay out there. If you guys are not part
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of the Diamond circle, get in right now. It's a
• 15:35
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• 15:38
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• 15:40
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