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NFL Week 15 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear the lift on. What's up? Everyone?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totagging Tambo back for another edition
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: of Leverage Lane Week fifteen. Here on the ship at
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Nation YouTube Station. Got my guy Alex blickl here with me,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: as always, gonna break down all things. We say it always.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: It's not narrative Street, it's Leverage Lane. We're gonna go
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: down the lane as usual. We're actually just talking pre
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: show and the fun in this show is kind of
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: like two buddies just going back and forth with their
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: thoughts for the week. It's a bit big slate, thirteen games,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: a lot to talk about, so stick with us. As
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: we go down the lane. We'll talk about ownership, who's popping,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: what's common together, what you're seeing. We'll find out what
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the common build looks like on this slate for single
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: entry with a GPP focus. Then we'll move to how
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: to leverage the common build, things that we can do,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: game stacks, different pairings, combinations, things like that. And then
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: at the end we'll get to the end of Leverage
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Lane where we give you our light at the end
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: of the lane, where we talk about what our lane
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be for the week. But Alex, bring
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: you in, man, We'll move through the season fast. It's
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: week fifteen, thirteen games, tons of studs, tons of players,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: tons of options, tons of lineups, constructions, and then also
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: pretty big for late swap. There's five good games or
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: five games in the afternoon, multiple good games. But how
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: you doing, my friend?
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I really like this slate, and like you said,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: it's a define to figure out. I don't yet know
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: where I'm going. So just like last week as we
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: talked through the slate on the show, it's not just
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: like a you know, a scripted Here's how I think
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: about it, Here's how I think you should think about it.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: But it's very much you and I kind of trying
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: to figure out the slight together. So I'm really looking
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: forward to this one and I think it'll be a
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: pun one to talk through.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's gonna be a ton that we go through.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: When I get a couple things out of the way quickly, guys,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: first off, first in the chat, and first place in
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: the streets. Last night, shut up to my guy Kyle
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: taking down some tournaments. Last night. I saw over five
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars in winnings across DFS and with it was
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: a prop parlay as well, I think too. So congrats
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: to you, my man, and then first into the chat
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: everybody else joining us, We appreciate you. It's gonna be
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: a fun show. Make sure to tap that thumbs up,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: make sure to subscribe to the channel, and then really quickly,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I just have to see if I can find this fast.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna pop it up. But if you guys want
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to see me in a Santa hat, well, whether you
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: do or don't, I'm putting it up anyway, but just
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to note it, the twelve days of ship Miss is
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: kicking off today. We posted it yesterday. Go follow us
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: on x at ship in Nation, giving away ten thousand
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: dollars plus over the next twelve days in cash and prizes.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: There's gonna be a new prize each day. There's gonna
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: be me in a Santa hat with a Chevy Chase
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: shirt on each day telling you what your ship Miss
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: task is. So be ready. It will come out in
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: about an hour right after this show goes off the air,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: pretty much, you'll see it on there. You can go
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: get in if you go to the alternative platform social
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: media growth Here for you folks, you get the bonus
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: ballots and day one prize. I'll tell you right now
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: spoiler alert, it's a free month all access ship at
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Nation ninety nine dollars Corp. If you're already a member,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: it'll be one hundred dollars credit to your bill. But
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: just to note, you got to be in it from
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the beginning, So if you want the big prize on
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: day twelve, you can't just show up on day twelve.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna happen. We'll monitor it for that. So
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: definitely think you should get in and have some fun
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: with us. But Alex, I'll kick it back to you. Man,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: We've got a lot to talk about here, and I
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: think we got to start off the top. What position
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: or what sort of theme do you want to start
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: with for the slate when it comes to ownership, because
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: there's a lot going on, I said, do you appreciate
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: But when you get thirteen games, it really does spread
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: out a little bit more in certain areas just because
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: everyone's going to their different stacks and different plays and
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: different things. So what do you think of, Man, where
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: do you want to start at today?
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I think they are kind of two places to start
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: one very much agree with what you just said.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: Ownership is more spread out than usual.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: We only have one guy over thirty percent right now
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: in single entry ownership over at FTN.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: That's Woody Marks, and he's only a thirty point six
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: percent for us. That could go up.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: It also could go down if Nick Chubb ends up playing.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: You got in a limited practice yesterday, so we'll still
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: see about that. But I do notice, once again this
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: has kind of been the theme all season almost is
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: people really want.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: To pay up for the studs. So two, three, four,
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: and five in.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Our projected single entry ownership are McCaffrey, Jamar Chase, Jamior Gibbs, Kukunakua,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: So people want to spend up when that means they're
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: gonna have to find places to save some money.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: I do think the other thing to talk about is, even.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Though we have thirteen games, there seem to be about
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: three games where people are most interested in the actual environment,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: and that's Detroit, La, New York and Washington and then
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Baltimore Cincinnati.
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: So I'm sure we'll touch.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: On all three of those games, but I kind of
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: want to start with just a macro note about Detroit
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: and Los Angeles because I'm really curious your thoughts on this.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: How do you use Vegas totals?
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: Because when I look at the Vegas total here, I
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: see what I think, like fifty five and a half.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: And yes, that is a higher total than we see
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: almost every week. But let's also take note of the
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: fact the Detroit averages just over thirty points per game.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: Los Angeles averages just over twenty nine points per game,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: So if all you did was take each team's average,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: the total would be fifty nine and a half, not
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: fifty five and a half. So a point being like,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: I think people look at the really high total and
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: they automatically like there's a part of their brain that
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: just says, oh, that means a ton of points are
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: going to be scoring this game. But actually, with the
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Vegas totals telling us is that the expectation for each
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: team is slightly less than what they've averaged so far
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: this year. And I think that's just something to kind
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: of keep in mind because maybe it means that we
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: actually don't need to get a piece of this Detroit
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: LA game the way we instinctively feel like we need to.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's something I always talk about, Like I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: had this conversation with Mayo own Score Patrol yesterday, I like, sometimes,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: you know, even if we're gonna get all those points
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna get a fun game, sometimes great games
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: to watch aren't great for dfs. We've actually seen these teams,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: particularly in spots like yeah, the Stafford pooka weeks work out,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: but then there's a ton of people that weren't on it,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: or it's not necessarily the biggest thing. But there's been
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: weeks where we had the Bills versus the Buccaneers, Josh
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Allen gets forty seven DraftKings points and Sean Tucker gets
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: like thirty seven. It's like that was what you needed
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: in that game. Yes, there was fifty five sixty something
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: points scored, it's like that you only needed the quarterback
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: and the backup running back though, so hope you got
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: your lineups there, but you didn't so those things can
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: happen as well.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Follow up Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think the just
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: the other point to make there is like it's not
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: just that you know things can be spread out in
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: the way the game produces, but also just think of
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: the prices, right, Like the totals fifty five, but you've.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: Got two guys over eighty five hundred.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: You have two more over seven thousand in Saint Brown
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: and Adams, and then you have two more over six
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: thousand in Jameson Williams and entire Williams. So like, yes,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: we do expect points to be scored, but unless you're
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: saying that they're going to score more points than they
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: usually do, there's no reason to think that any player
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: has to score more Fantasy Points than he usually scores.
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: And of course, like that still can happen.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: Right like Focus still could go put up forty, Gifts
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: still could go put up thirty five to forty whatever.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Any of these guys still can hit. But the point
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: is it's not a guarantee that someone from this game
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: is gonna smash just because the game total is high,
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Because the game total still is not telling us that
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: either of these offenses are going to outproduce what they
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: usually do.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Yes, and also the no, back to the part that's
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: hurting everybody's thought process right now and hurting their head
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: of what we started with is there is thirteen games,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: which means when there's twelve other games, yes, you could
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: cross some off for whether you could say this is
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: bad matchup. But there's tons of things you can say
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: bad about these other spots, but there's more opportunity. No,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: it's just math. There's there's more opportunity for these other
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: wide receivers to take these guys out, for other running
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: backs to take out a popular Gibbs like they can
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: get beat in these lineups. Only at most three running
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: backs can be in your DraftKings lineup, So you know,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: if there's this many running backs on the slate, it
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: doesn't guarantee that Gibbs is gonna be the one. So
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: if there's lineups where you don't get to Gibbs, I
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: don't feel the need to be like, well, then I
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: better get to David Montgomery. I better get to somebody
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: like in this case, because there's more games on the
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: slate now. I am considering, based on who these teams are,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: how to get pieces of this into my puzzle for certain,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: But neither of these spots is my lane, and I
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: can tell you that much without knowing exactly where I'm
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: gonna land. I got two spots I'm considering. I want
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: to talk through it all with you as usual, but
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: this is not where I'm landing. And it's again if
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I get pieces into it or I make it work
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: and it fits great, but late swap will be a
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: big factor. Like you mentioned as well, especially with the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Woody Mark situation that we're waiting on that you previewed earlier.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: That's an important spot to talk about as well. It was,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: you know, everyone was expecting Nick Chubb to be out.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I kind of still think he will be, but then
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: it was like he's he's still listed as questionable limited
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: participant whatever it was on Friday, So I have to
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: wait and see how that goes. But I guess Woody
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Marx is in the morning. If if you go heavy
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: on Woody Marks and those lineups are dead, he fails,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: then you got to think about what you're doing in
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the afternoon. There is five games, like we said that
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: you can sort of run to. This one came up first.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I'll bring it up because he threw a few bucks
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: in there. So Patrick E. Pepperson, man, I don't even
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: know how to say that named Patrick E. Person sixty
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: six ninety two says season long and this is the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: DFS show. We can answer this. Do you like Mariota
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: versus Hurts? And he's probably asking because you're the Philly guys.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: You know it has to hurt watching that, but keep
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: it rolling here. What do we got Mariota versus Hurts.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let me let me go check our projections.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: I know we have Mariota about eighteen fantasy points. We
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: have Hurt at nineteen point seven, so slightly into Hurts,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: but nothing strong there. I do think this is a
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: really good spot for Mariota. I'm sure we're gonna talk
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: a lot more.
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: About that game.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you, we appreciate it. You know this, you
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: know Burgood's Burgos or Burga Burgaode says, well, the high game,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: total push ownership, coupling that with high prices seems good
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: place to leverage it. That's kind of what we I
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: think we were just talking about, and that's what I
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: was landing. My last point on was just saying, when
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: you've looked at Nikua eighty seven hundred, a Monro seventy nine,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: and that's the other thing too, Alex, in this type
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: of spot, I forget what game it was now, but
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: it was like everybody was on Jamison Williams and somebody
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: else that was the cheaper pieces in the game, and
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: it ended up being a It was everyone was on
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Montgomery and Jamison Williams because it was just the slate
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: dynamics and Gibbs and a Monroe went off and smashed,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: So it was the opposite side. It was the opposite
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: guys in the same game, so you know, at the
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: lower ownership. So sometimes that can work in your favor
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: as well. Here it would be the opposite this week
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: because Gibbs and a Monra look like they're getting the
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: ownership more than Montgomery and Williams. So maybe that's something
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: to think about if you slide one of those into
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: your lineup as a one off or in a secondary
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: stack or something like that. Where do you want to
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: go next at these positions? I think quarterback and stacks
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: in general might be important, but anything else you want
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: to touch on before we go there.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: No, let's just jump into the two quarterback and set.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do that. What are you seeing on your
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: end right now? Now? There is? It is that time
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: of year too. I should have mentioned it where we
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: got to keep keeping a little bit of an eye
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: on weather, right and we're looking at some of that
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: stuff and people can go find out like who's in
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the dome and all these different things. But does look
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: like there's some colder tempts out there. I know, Washington
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: and the New York game that you mentioned earlier, and
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Baltimore and Sincy both like potential for like a little
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: bit of cold weather and whatever else comes with that.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: But you know, I don't know if that's going to
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: deter people from stacking that up or if it should.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So any thoughts on where you want to start at
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the quarterback or just what you're seeing with stacks.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you kind of hit the nail on
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: the head there to start, which is at this time
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: of year we get more movement in the ownership projections
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: at the quarterback position and just overall in stacks than
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: we do in the first half of the year, just
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: because there's this added variable weather that we have to
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: pay a lot of attention to. The weather reports changes
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: the week goes on, plus people just start paying attention
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: to weather a little bit more.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: And so currently I.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: Do think that the field is going to this Washington
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: and New York game. We just mentioned the fact that
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I just kind of talked through, you know, Vegas totals
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: and how to compare that to you know, average points
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: per game. Well, this total is forty six and a half,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: and if you added their average points per game, it's
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: forty one point seven. So Vegas is saying, Okay, we're
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: expecting about five more points in this game than these
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: teams typically average. So that's kind of just a really
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: good sign about the game. And by the way, like
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Vegas already knows whether the total could come down, of course,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: But no matter what, I think we're going to finish
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: with this looking like a pretty gooing. We're seeing really
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: cold temperatures and potential wind in this game, but it's
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: not like it's going to be raining sideways or anything
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: like that, so I think it's still going to be
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: pretty good. But Dark Mariota both one and two in
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: our projected singleenttary ownership at the quarterback position, both have
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: at least one Chalky piece coming with them McLaurin for
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Washington and then both Theo Johnson and Wanda Robinson for
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: New York. I'm more confident that Theo Johnson will remain
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Chalk and Terry mclorm will remain Chalk than I.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Am that Wandell will.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: But if you want to get into this game, you
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: still can't do so in a contrarian way. You can
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: either go Deebo Samuel, you can go Darius Slayton, or
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: you can go to the running backs Tracy Singletary, Chris
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Arbriguez if he suits up.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: I think everyone in this game is.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Pretty you know, encouraging, pretty exciting to play this week,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: and so there are definite, definite pats to playing in
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: a contrarian way. Beyond that, you've got Lamar Jackson next
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: c J. Stroud, and then kind of a tear drop.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked though, if we saw Burrow come up.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Currently we've got him at four percent, it wouldn't surprise
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: me if he ends up pushing ten something like that,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: just because he's.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: Easier to stack.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Without t Higgins, you can now go Chase and Kasiki,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: or Chase and Yoshibas, or Chase and Tinsley, whatever. Right,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: So I think we're going to see some people try
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: to take that route, especially if they use Derrick Henry
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: as they bring back instead of one of the tight ends.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Everyone loves playing tight ends against Cincinnati for a good reason.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: They are still allowing more than ten points per game
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: above the opposing tight end averages, which like think about
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: how insane that is, right, most tight ends are not
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: averaging ten points per game, and so what we're saying
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: is they're boosting production by over one hundred percent to
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: opposing ten ends. Pretty nutty. And we're this far in
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: the season and they just keep doing it. So it
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: looks like that's gonna be a thing all season.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Mark Andrews cleared, which I think is fine because
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I actually kind of like Isaiah Likely better in that game.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: But I think it's not my lane. But there's definitely
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: an interesting way to play that one. People are already
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: playing double tight end this week. So if you play
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you know, Likely and Gseki, or you could literally probably
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I think you could play Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Likely and get Chase on the run back and do
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: it different like that. People are already playing two tight
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: end lineups. That gives you double value. There's certain things
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: that you can do in that game to still get different.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: But to your point, and I will add on to
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: it because I think it's a good one, is the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow side has to get more popular because once
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: you cut Tea Higgins out of the mix and people
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: people get just as excited we were talking about Mitchell Tinsley,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Mitch Tinsley yesterday. You know Yoshi vas at forty one hundred,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: who is more than the best buy pricing, right I
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: No one wants him because he's forty one hundred. Just
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: get the cheap guy at thirty one hundred to make
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: it all work. So you got Joe Burrow, Chase Giseki
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and pick one, or you got Joe Burrow Chase pick
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: one and then move over to one of the tight
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: ends and Andrews or likely Andrews did pop up on
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the injury report I think it was Thursday, but was
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: cleared yesterday, so you know, right back to it. So
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: it'll be him and likely in the mix there this week.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Still waiting on Bateman news in that game, and then
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: do people want to play Derreck Henry? We'll see what
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: do you see right now? I'm curiously because we're gonna
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: talk a little bit of running backs and stuff too.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: What do you see on the Derek Henry ownership right now?
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Because the spot is pretty good throughout the season against
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: stinc with running backs, and I know people were really
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: disappointed by Derrick Henry last week, like de Hember and
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: he didn't show up. He got like twenty two or
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: twenty four carries ninety four yards. It's like, if he
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: doesn't get the touchdown and the bonus, which is what happened, people,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I think he sucked. If he just had a got
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: in on one of those three tries and got those
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: additional six yards in the bonus, people would love the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: guy and be like, oh, December's back. So it was
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: very close to being a big one for him. What's
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on his spot?
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I love this spot for Henry. We've gone him
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: around fifteen percent right now. I could see that going up.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: In fact, I could see it going way up. I
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: think he and Barkley are kind of competing for the
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: same ownership where we've got them kind of neck and neck.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: It wouldn't surprise me if Henry ends up ten percentage
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: points about Barkley. It would surprise me if Barkley ends
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: up ten percentage points above Henry. But one thing I
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: brought up in my discord this morning was like, can
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: you imagine what it feels like to try and tackle
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Derrick Henry when it's ten degrees outside, when the wind
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: chills five degrees because it's going to be crazy, crazy
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: cold in Cincinnati this week. God, I just can't imagine
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: having to be the two hundred pound corner who's trying
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: to tackle Derrick Henry when your whole body is freezing
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: and every bit of contact hurts. So yeah, if if
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Henry goes for two hundred and three scores this week,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be surprised.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I cannot imagine that I would not. And I
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: remember a couple of seasons ago when when Tim Andercust
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: was telling Pat Mayo and the crew there how he's
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: gonna he could stop him, and we were like, buddy,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: you'd be dead after the first one. He would roll
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: you over and then there wouldn't be He said, if
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you gave him a hundred tries and something, i'd get
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: him at least once. So it's like he wouldn't even
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: make it to two.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: So I don't even think he'd get hurt because I
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: don't think he'd make contact with it.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just right through the guy.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: It's over new and said, I would have figured with
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: all the pricing and all the great plays this week,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: double tight end wouldn't be as popular, but I but
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: it helps you fit more into your build, so I
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: get it. Yeah, I think that's part of this. The
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: ladder of that note, Jordan is what I'm seeing as well,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: is like and it's also slate dependent. When you have
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the Gaseekis and the and the Ravens versus the Bengals
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: and the cheap opportunities, and it all fits to a
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: game that is also popular, it's gonna be the way
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: people fit. Let's say someone's on a San Francisco stack
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: and they want Purdy, CMC and Jennings, I see you
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: in the chat there, Kenny, and they got their guys
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: in there, Kittle or whoever they put in there. So
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: let's say they're on that. Well, if you don't go
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: to Kittle in that lineup, it may feel pretty good
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: to be like, well, I can still get a piece
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: of Giseki and Likely or something in another game if
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: it makes everything else fit. So or they have Kittle
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: and then they have they can get to Jamar Chase
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: as another stud or something in there with CMC and
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: then like, okay, well I can just close it out
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: now with Likely in there, he's a guy that can
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: catch a touchdown fifty yards five catches like he's still
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: a good play down there that makes everything else work.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: So definitely think that's that's interesting.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I'll kind of expand on that a little bit.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: So when when when he talks about the pricing and
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: all the good plays on the slate and how that
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: affects double tight end, it's actually working the ops direction.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: It is making double tight end more popular.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: We have double tight end projective of them in mm
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: and forty nine percent of the time this week in
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: single entries. And the reason for that, I just went
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: over to our projections at FTEN sorted by the value column.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: It's Smith and Jigba McCaffrey, Henry Fannin, Puka Kittle, Juwan Johnson,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Theo Johnson. So what we're seeing is like, Okay, people
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: want these spend ups. They want to go pay for
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: the best plays, Well, how do they fit them. All
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: of the best cheap values are tight ends. So in
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: order to fit as many of those studs as you want,
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: you have to play double tight end. Otherwise you're taking
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: on a ton of risk of you know, getting a
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: guy who's going to give you three and.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: A half draftings points or something like that.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: If you're trying to get a receiver in the mid
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: three thousands instead of Jawan Johnson or THEO Johnson type.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: The value is just much better on the tight ends.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: That's the way draftings pricing has kind of worked all season.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: We've seen this sort of thing in the past. I
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: think the difference this year is that tight ends have
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: become more involved in these offenses and receiving production as
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: a whole from wide receiver versus down and so you're
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: not getting the spikes as often from these you know,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: cheap wide receivers where you know, maybe they go three
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: for ninety in a touchdown. We're not seeing the deep
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: ball anymore anywhere near the way we used to. So
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: it's just really really hard for those cheap wide receivers
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: to pay off. It's not that difficult for the cheap
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: tight ends to pay off. And so double tight end
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: this year has actually been a fairly decent strategy, particularly
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: onto states like this where getting to the studs is
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: something that people really want to do.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Of course, yeah, and that's a huge factor. And then
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: also the comfortability of how much you feel like if
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: you go to a like a George Kittle at fifty
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: four hundred. That's the prices just aren't there when we've
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: been seeing guys like rock Bowers at six thousand dollars,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: like they didn't adjust. Remember there was a week where
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: McBride was sixty three hundred. These guys are wide receiver ones.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: It should almost be McBride's output was worth nine k
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: and he was at price that's sixty three hundred. That
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: week someone did the breakdown on x and it was like,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: he's cmc or Pooka right now for Arizona. But because
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: he's at a tight end onesie position and that's how
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: they price it. You have to adjust for the those things.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: And that's why we talk about the game and playing
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: DFS a lot more than about the plays. It's like,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the play is the play, but the price is where
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: we're going with this, And what the output is is
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: he's a nine thousand dollars guy stuck in a position
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: that doesn't that kind of caps their price at eight
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: thousand at most, and they've got him capped at sixty
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: three hundred this week. That was the McBride week, of course,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there's a lot of stuff in that. And
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: then like does someone feel comfortable playing a Keenan Allen
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: or an Xavier worthy or whatever else, guy you want
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: to bring up when it's like a few hundred bucks
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: more or less to play a tight end that they
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: know and just you know, is way cheaper versus you know,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Mitch Tinsley at thirty one hundred, where they're probably using
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: that more in like a Bengal stack. So I think
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: that's another key component. I was gonna say this, I'm
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: definitely trying to be a pros pro right now and
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: do this show because my head's already big. It feels
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: like it's this big right now. And we got the water,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: we got the cold brew. Shout out to my man
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: DJ seventy five, the big Guy and the sky always
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: looking down. But yeah, we're trying to get through this
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: just fine. But I think we're doing okay here, Alex.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: It was a good time. Mayo puts on a good
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: party and a lot of good people there. Last night.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Tim was there. Yeah, we we had to. We had
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: a chat with Tim and Kenny's there said we all
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: need Tim's self confidence. Yes, that's how.
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: Are the how are the Chicken Skewers?
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: And need both very good? Actually, yeah, I got in there.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: I would put that there when he posted it up
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: on X I tried those. There was a nice little
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: bruschetto bread thing that was delicious, and uh, definitely some
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: good drinks and and on this fitness journey, Alex, I
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: haven't been drinking very much at all for the for
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: the most part, so, uh, it hits you a little
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: bit harder when you get after that. Tequila's and repisados whatever,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: these things are, all these different things. Yeah, we're getting
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: through it, though. We appreciate everybody you know, coming out
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: and helping us out and support the show. So what else?
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: What do you want to talk about next here? Any
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: anything that we missed on the stacks? I know we're
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: gonna get into them. We talk about leveraging the common build,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: but some of what we did there kind of going
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: down the lane, as we like to call it, that
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: that was pushing us towards what we're seeing become common because,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: like you said, the Bengals Raven spot we talked. I
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: guess the Stroud spot, you know, is one more that
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I'd want to bring up because it looks really good
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: on paper, and I think Stroud pops a little bit,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: but I don't see Nico Collins and Scholtz popping as
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: much as they could be. And I think it's because
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Woody Marks, right, is keeping all of that in check.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: And then I don't know if baby people aren't as confident.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: It's hilarious how this works too, by the way of
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: like Michael Wilson just keeps going off anytime there's no
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Marra Harrison, but now that he's sixty six hundred, they're like, no,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: that's a limit for me. He's not gonna keep doing this.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: He's smashing. This is not like Nick Westbrook a Kine
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: scoring a touchdown every game last year. We're like, oh
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: my god, this the one. Like they can't keep letting
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: this happen from breaking bad, Like, you know, this can't
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: keep happening. It's not like that this guy is getting
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: the catches. They're targeting him everywhere. They're hitting him in
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: the end zone, they're trying them over and over again
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: their garbage time. Even last week they were dead still
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: throwing another touchdown, boom, give him the It was like
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: a thirteen point play, the bonus, the yards, everything that
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: he needed, a catch and a touchdown. What your thoughts
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: on just leveraging Woody Marks completely and just going like
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: stroud Nico somebody else and then using Wilson or McBride
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: on the runback.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: I think the hardest part of this Arizona defense is
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: so conservative, and they they essentially say like, you're going
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: to be able to drive the ball down the field
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: against us, but we're not going to give you.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: The explosive play.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: It's not I don't think a great defensive strategy. It
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: works against weaker quarterbacks. Even going back to you know,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Gannon's Timons defensive coordinator in Philadelphia, it was like he
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: his defense dominated bad offenses and then got beat by
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: really good quarterbacks. I don't know which category Stroud fits
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: in anymore. Like you know, he was obviously a very
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: good quarterback his rookie season, then he had what was
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: it two or a year and a half where he wasn't
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: that good. He's been playing a lot better, so he
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: might be in that category now where he can just
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: slice and dice them down the field over and over
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: again and end up with four touchdowns and be the
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: guy you need. But I don't see the explosive plays
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: coming that usually bring Nico Collins to those GPP winning performances,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: So I don't have a ton of interest in it.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: But the path is there on the Arizona side of things,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: I have no confidence in my ability to predict what
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: Michael Wilson's gonna do. I put this in my discapel,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: like I've never been more of a fuddled by a
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: single player slash team too, right, because he looks incredible.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: You're telling me that it's not worth targeting this guy
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: and designing, you know, the best routes for this guy
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: when Marvin Harrison juniors on the field, who clearly isn't
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: that good. So yeah, it's it's just so weird, so confusing.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: I have no idea how to kind of think it through.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: I will say, like I have said this a few
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: times over the last month or so now, but so
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: much of the Arizona production has come in garbage time,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: has come when the opposing defense says, Okay, we already
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: kind of have this game one. We just have to
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: prevent the exposed to play. They sit back and now
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: it's a bunch of completions. To McBride and Wilson, this
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: is probably the least likely game for them when the
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: last month or so to actually be in that type
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: of script where they are already down three touchdowns, and
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: they're still playing. And that's largely because I think this
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Houston offense isn't you know, the type of explosive offense
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: that can build that big of a lead that quickly the.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Way Seattle did and Los Angeles did.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: So maybe we finally see the coming back to earth,
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: you know, movement from both McBrien and Wilson this week,
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: But maybe we don't. And you mentioned a bit like
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the fact that ownership is definitely not there, So maybe
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: the move is to just flip and play Arizona stuff,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: But don't I don't feel strongly about really anything.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I really don't like that Arizona side that much. People
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: are talking about it, like I feel like on this slate,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the tricky part you will definitely get different with it
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: because it's almost a balance build. Right, You're going with
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: a fifty five hundred dollars quarterback in Brisset, You're going
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: with a sixty six hundred dollars Michael Wilson, which we're
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: okay with that. I'm okay with that, saying that he's
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: underpriced for the role, whether or not he is will
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: find note. So I mentioned the Stingley defense on the
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: other side, Well, I'll talk more on that in a second.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: But McBride seventy four hundred. That's like, yes, you flipped
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: the build, You've got different. I get that, and put
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Nico on the other side, or put Woody Marx. That's
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: a way to play the Woody marks chalk. But man,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: I don't feel nearly as confident in the Arizona against
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: Houston side. Just the battle on the front line, and
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: then on top of it, I don't know if that
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: garbage time is gonna happen this week. So for me,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I feel much better about leveraging if I was going
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: this route. It's not my lane, but I'm just saying
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: if I was going this route, I would feel much better,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: and I will in my portfolio, but not for I'm
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: not going in for single utury but Stroud, Collins, probably Schultz,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: and then Wilson, and I would answer this one like
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: this guy said, I don't think this matters because I
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: think everything that you see here doesn't matter. Yes, he's
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: an amazing defender. Yes, people have not targeted him as much.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying the reason I
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: don't think it matters as much is because I'm baking
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: in that he's already way too cheap for the role
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: at sixty six hundred. And also it's this guy's not
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: catching forty yard passes or thirty yards downfield. It's like
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: ten yards, ten yards, ten yard chop chop, chop, chop
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: chop all the way up the field, and then when
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: they get to the end zone it's a totally different story.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: So it's like, whatever happens happens. I just I'm not
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: as worried about that. I want eight catches, one hundred
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: yards and a touchdown and I'm fine with it, and
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: he can get that for the way he gets them.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Not only that, but this Houston defense is playing seventy
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: two percent zone coverage, so even if unistingly is shadowing
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: him and man coverage, that's only you know, thirty percent
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: of the snaps or so. So yeah, I'm w with
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: you where that doesn't mean a whole lot to me.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: But I'd love you bringing in the data to back
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: me up. Let's go. Yeah, that's like, Yeah.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: The last thing I'll say here is I agree with
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: you that I don't. I don't quote see the law
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: happening and the garbage hunt happening.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: I think my.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: Point is more, if I played into this game, that's
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: the sort of thing i'd keep in mind. So if
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: you're going with the Houston stack, I think you really
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: really really want at least one to bring back, because
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: you're saying Houston's gonna score enough to create that garbage
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: time for Arizona, that's when they're gonna produce. Similar if
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: I was trying to play the Arizona side, I'd say, Okay,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: what's the script where Houston can actually jump out ahead.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: I want Woody Marks in that lineup. I want probably
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Nico Collins in that lineup. And now I'm saying, all right,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: they're gonna score a bunch early, and now I'm gonna
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: have the stack that really gets there in garbage time.
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: So that's just the way I play it.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: But ultimately, I think I probably won't have any of
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: this game if I had to guess right now.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely gonna have some the Houston side of
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: my portfolio. But you know, just because I don't believe
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: fully in the Woody Marks chalk yet. Obviously he'll make
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: his way into lineups, especially if the Nick Chubb news hits.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: But I think what most people are hoping for is
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: somehow to get the Josh Jacobs news early where Emmanuel
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Wilson would become a play and then they can just
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: move away from the cheaper running back they feel best
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: about currently, which happens to be Woody Mark. So I
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: have an.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Interesting Woody Mark sake, which is I'm not sure that
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: no Nick Chubb would actually help him, because we're already
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: seeing him get the line's share of the work, including
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: almost all.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Of the red zone stuff.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: If you take if there's no Nick Chubb, you're gonna
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: take away the let's say like six carries a game
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: right now that Nick Chubb is getting might not even
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: be that, and most of those are between the twenties.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: That's like what, I don't know, between two and three
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: expected fantasy points. And you're replacing that with a goombawle
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: playing a bunch of the passing downs because now they're saying, Okay,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: we need to give him some rest. We'll do it
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: on the passing downs, where a goombawaile really makes sense
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: in the offense.
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: Instead, that might be like.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: Four to five expected fantasy points in terms of what
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: he can do in receiving production. So I'm not sure
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: it helps him to have no Nick Chubb, given how
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: much of the role Woody Marks now has.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, I mean again, anything we can do
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: to kind of think through it. That's kind of the
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: process here and the piece that we do on this show.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: So I love that you brought that up. I was
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: just gonna go back and answer this one. I think
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Alex talked about. But that they have that's the whole point. Like,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: that's why you're seeing them pop into your optimizer, That's
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: why these numbers are getting pushed so heavily. The ownership
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: is known on them, the project the point projections are
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: boosted on them. Like it just someone said it, think
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: to your do you want to play Dalton Schultz or
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: mac Hollins? Who do you think people are clicking there?
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: They're going to Dalton Scholtz and it's projected that way.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: So I'm kind of guessing he wanted to ask why
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: haven't the prices adjusted yet and today? So you're not
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: test draft things. They don't always you know, price in
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: the in the sharpest way.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Well there's something about that too, even for this week,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I'll say quickly, is you know when there's thirteen games
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: and it's week fifteen and and they're you know, the
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: tournaments are still very large and need to get filled.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Why look at it this way? Why did the prices
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: go down on Pokin Nakua and a Manra Saint Brown.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: It's you. They want you to be able to build lineups,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: and they have to be able to spread it out
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: and get you in there where you feel at least
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: somewhat comfortable. I don't think anyone is struggling this week
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: to come up with a good lineup as much I don't.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know how to exactly word this because I'm
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: still a little hazy, but what I'm trying to say is,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think the problem this week is the pricing
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: is is impossible to work with. It's people, don't They
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: always feel like they're missing out on something because there's
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: so many other spots. You can build a lineup there
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: like man that makes sense, but you still have the
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: fear of missing out with But I don't have CMC
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: or damn, but I couldn't get Gibbs into this one,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: or what if Jamar Chase goes off. Yes, you're gonna
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: have those thoughts, but your lineup, especially in single entry,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: has to make sense to you. And I'll let you
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: carry on from there.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Do you remember when when DraftKings added the five thousand
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: dollars range in PGA contests. Yes, If I if I
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: were DraftKings, the way i'd quote unquote fix NFL pricing
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: is I would I would make three thousand the minimum
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: for all flex position, So I'd bring tight end up
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: from twenty five hundred to three thousand, and then I'd
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: bring running back down from four thousand to three thousand,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: and now you'd have to choose between, like I think
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: the you know what was the example just given Dalton
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Schultz FIRSTT Collins, Well, that would be like Dalton Schultz
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: versus Blake Korum or you know, uh Jakoy Krusky Merrick
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: right like you're it would give you the opportunity to
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: take a chance on a really cheap running back instead
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: of these shore fire tight ends that maybe you get
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: the blowout run and the guy really crushes that way.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: But I just think you would give some more interesting
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: decisions down in that range because right now, like the
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: cheap running backs, you can't even possibly consider them because
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: the cheapest running backs are in the four thousands and
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: you're getting much better projections from three thousand dollars tight
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: ends you just like you can't possibly make that decision.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: So I think it would make it a little bit
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: more interesting and it'd be a really fun adjustment if
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: they made it.
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: Probably won't make it.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's we always talk about what they should do
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: and then what they actually do is totally different. But
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I love that call out, and I think it's, you know,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: something that we've talked about across different sports where they
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: could change it up a little bit that that'd be great.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Another thing they could do is just get rid of
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: the defenses right and just let us play and you
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: know a bit of a even if it was like
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: a super flex that was like no, like not a
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: full super flex with quarterbacks, let us just have another
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: flex position, Like I'd be fine with that as it stands,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I'd be great. But you know, someone else brought something
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: up to Langley, so Jacobe doesn't care who the dB is.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: He's slinging it. Very true. One interesting note as if
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: you are going to go there, and I'm just noting
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: this for people playing in your Woody Marks lineup if
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: it ends up being that way, is to play the
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: Houston d with him, because like you said Jacobe is
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: just slinging it. The Houston d can get damage done
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: that way, and they're one hundred dollars less than Seattle,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: who's likely going up against Philip Rivers by the sounds
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: of things currently. So I know a lot of people
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: are interested in that Seahawks defense at thirty seven hundred.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: I think you could go to Houston there at thirty
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: six hundred as a way to slice and dice the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: ownership on Woody Marx if it ends up that way.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: And then Jeff Tiffany here, I like this call out.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: We talked about it a little bit earlier. It is
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: definitely that time of the year where you want to
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: consider just you know, where are people playing, what are
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: the attempts, like, what games do we have within those buildings?
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: And then sometimes that doesn't even matter. It's just like
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: you said, the frigid and windy conditions and so many
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: spots can can oftentimes cause issues. So I like that
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: call out. Anything we missed Alex before we go to
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: sort of ways to leverage the Common Build. If not,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I'd love for you to sort of summarize what you know,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: what the conclusion is on the Common build this week
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: what are you thinking now?
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's it's definitely not a week where we can,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: you know, bring up the screen and put in a
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: quarterback and two receivers and a running back or.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: Something and say this is the common build.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: What we can't say is they're going to be common
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: elements to the common bill, which is number one. We're
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: going to see a lot of cheap tight ends to
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: fit the studs, which is number two.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: We're going to see a lot of studs.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: I think number three is that we're going to see
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: people try to save money at the quarterback position. That's
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: why Mariota and Dark are one and two in our
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: projected single line of tree ownership.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: We also have Stroud up there.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: I think the last thing that I'll say is I
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: think we're going to see a lot of mini stacks
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: from this Detroit and Los Angeles game because they're so
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: high priced that it's going to be extremely difficult to
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: get Golf double with a Pooka bring back or Stafford
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: double with a Gibbs bring back. That type of build
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: is going to be extremely difficult. So what we're going
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: to see instead is Pooka and Gibbs or Puka and
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Jamison or Pooka and Saint Brown or Gibbs in DeVante
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: Adams like some kind of combination from that game where
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: people feel like they're not going to be out leveraged
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: in that game by the field. They're saying, I'm going
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: to have as much of this game as anyone in
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: the field, that I'm just going to try and get
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: it right. So I do think it's worth just bearing
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: in mind that, like if you're using let's say Adams
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: and Jamison Williams, you think you're getting single digit ownership
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: on both guys, But conditionally, when you know when one
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: of those guys in the line up, the other guy
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: might be fifteen percent on or twenty percent on or
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: thirty percent on. So it's not going to be as
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: contraying of a combination as you're expecting. So I would
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: encourage people to if you want a piece of this game,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: and by all means, you can play anyone from this game,
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: because they like, they're all great players, they all have
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: great ceilings. I think I would encourage playing them as
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: one offs instead of mini stacks, or go all the
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: way and try to be one of the people who
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: actually does fit in a game stack instead of that
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: mini stack, because I just think the mini stacks are
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: going to be over owned as a whole this week.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, like just looking at it too. I
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: mentioned this one last week and I think it's still
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: interesting and it pretty much played out last week because
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Adams wasn't needed. But last week my thought was like,
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: if you went to Stafford, you know, Stafford, Nakua and Parkinson,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: because the thing about Parkinson is he's just more likely
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: to eat to be needed on a slate, or he's
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: gonna make something work that's needed on a slate. He's
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: more likely to eat the goal line lunch of Adams,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: where Kua can just collect it along the way. And
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: even in my main lineup, it was a mistake, definitely.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: I played Adams and Parkinson just because it was affordability.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: I was like, ah. And then I had that thought
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: on the Sunday morning before, like an hour and a
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: half before the slate, and I was like, man, thinking
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: about it after, like I should have went back and
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: changed that. So, I mean, we all make mistakes. That's
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: part of the game is learning and getting better. But
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: it just didn't make a ton of sense to me.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Is it possible of course it was, so it's like, oh,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: I could still get there, But just thinking out loud
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: and looking back on it, I definitely think nicoua with
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Parkinson can make some sense. Now. I don't know if
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: people would like this setup. It's not gonna be my lane.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: But if you're going with Stafford, Nakua Parkinson, you could
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: try and run it back with like maybe Jamo and
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: get a balanced build but within the big total that
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: you still feel like pieces and a guy like Jameson
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Williams could really speed things up. Maybe put Teslaw instead
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: of Jamison Williams and hope that it's him. I mean
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: they've been hitting him in the end zone and trying
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: to make things work for him and he's been fine.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, there's seemingly a couple of ways
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: you could do it. I just don't think it feels
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: very comfortable to people. So I loved your call out
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: of like one off or overstack and just let it
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: be And then, yeah, you are going to have some
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: things in that lineup that feel a bit uncomfortable. You
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: might have Parkinson and Teslaw, but it's like if they're needed,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: that really helps you get the rest of the game.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: You're looking for.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: That thought's really interesting because if you go that route,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: you are essentially saying, like, these guys produced, switch keeps
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: the studs from this game in check, and then it
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: also lets you afford McCaffrey JSN. Something like that, where
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: you're telling a very clear story of not just the
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: fact that it's mccaffree and JSN that are the highest
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: scoring studs, but you're saying why they're the highest scoring
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: studs because you have the cheap guys who produce instead
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: of the expensive guys from that game, whether it's Saint Brown, Gibbs, Hookah, Adams, whoever.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: So that's a really really interesting way to build where obviously,
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: like it's very thin that you're going to get Parkinson
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: and to slough Ripe, but man, if you do, the path.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: Is so clear to that takedown. So I like that
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: thought quite a bit.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is true too, Kenny. Thank you, still waking up, man,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: come on, give me a break. But three limited practices
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: for Raymond. But the thought process does stand. It's all
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I'm saying is like the feeling of being uncomfortable in
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: that spot we always talk about, you have to be
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: comfortable being uncomfortable it's like it's not actually uncomfortable. I'm
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: literally saying this is gonna be with my lineup, that
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: this is going to be the game stack. I'm gonna
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: need things to set this up. And in that case,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: that would be like an example of how you could
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: get there. Obviously you can plug in other names and
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: other guys, but I think that's kind of my point
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: of just that's where I would still be pretty comfortable
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: because like it's, man, this is how this is going
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: to work, and then it gets me everything else that
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I want, same as everybody else wants. That's going to
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: feel very comfortable of the studs and the guys that
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I think are the safest with upside. So I like
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: thinking about that in all my builds. Obviously there's tons
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: of different spots we can go, So let's do that. Alex,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: you wanted to talk earlier. I know the weather could
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: become a factor, but you had mentioned some ways you
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: can get different within like the Giants and Commander's game.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I think that's a really good call out because people
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: are talking about a lot of this this game. People
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: are mentioning names. You're seeing Jackson Dart, you're seeing Mariota,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: but you're not seeing a ton outside of that. People
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: are mentioning Robinson and McLaurin, people are mentioning Slayton and Johnson.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: But maybe Johnson is getting clicked because of the dart stuff.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: But what are you thinking about with this game?
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, THEO Johnson's going to be very popular. I think
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Wandal's getting popular. I think mclaurin's getting up very popular.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: Mclaurin's team is going to be very much tied to Mario.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: So if Mario ends up, you know, fifteen to twenty percent,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: you're probably going to see McLaurin touch thirty.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: Percent or something like that at single entries.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: If Mariota stays at eight to ten, you'll probably see
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: McLaurin stay around fifteen or something like that. But as
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: I said earlier, you're not going to see Deebo get anywhere.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: You're not going to see any of the Washington tight ends,
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: you're not going to see Darius Slayton get anywhere, and
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: you're not going to see the running backs really get
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: anywhere from an ownership perspective this week. So this is
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: a game where I'm either like probably overstacking or maybe
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: finding just a one off.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: Or two something like that from the game.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: But I really like the idea of overstacking, including by
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: the way, running backs, even with my quarterback, because it's
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: also cheap where you're essentially just saying, Hey, these teams
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: that usually average twenty or under twenty points per game,
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: what if they both score in the upper twenties or thirties.
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: There's more than enough room for the quarterback.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: To smash, a pass catcher to smash, and a running
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: back to smash, especially if it's someone like Tracy who's
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: actually been really involved in the passing game as well.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I just think this game as a whole
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: is as long as the weather doesn't kill the game.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: This is the most intriguing game to me, both because
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: I think the game environment itself is really good, but
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: also because we have some upside guys we just aren't
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: going to get ownership, Like I think Slayton's probably the
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: best individual play on the slate from an upside to
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: ownership perspective.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's definitely another way too, of you you want
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: to slice into that, like anything with if Dart is
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: getting that popular, I mean Dart with Robinson and Slayton,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Dart with Robinson Slayton and Theo Johnson, Like, you can
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: do a lot of different things within that setup to
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: be able to get there, and then obviously we'll see
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: how the rest of the lineup builds out from there,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: if you know, once you put that down on paper.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: But I think in general, I'm just thinking about things
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: like that. That's kind of the same slice and Dice I
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: talk about where you can just interject somebody that even
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: if ownership does pick up in the other places around them,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: they keep everything down overall. The other game I want
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: to talk about again just I know we already hit
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: on it, but it's so many other and we'll get
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: to some of the ones that are outliers. But the
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Baltimore since he game, I was just looking, the total
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: has actually gone up since open, so it's definitely a
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: spot that people are catching onto. But like, I don't know,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: when you look at it, I think I agreed with
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: you on the Burrow thing earlier. Lamar could definitely pick
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: up some steam as well, So I don't know, Maybe
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: it's just that that game is gonna steam up even
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: more than we think. What are your thoughts on that,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: because already Chase had the ownership, I know the tight
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: ends are potentially popular. We know Joe Burrow can steam
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: up now, and then we talked a little bit about Henry.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: So do you think people start to overstack this game
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit more or is this going to be
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: more of those secondary stacks as well.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is another one where ownership is a really
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: wide range of outcomes, but we at least can like
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: very easily predict how it's gonna look. So we're going
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: to see on the Baltimore side, I think we're going
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: to see Lamar as one.
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: Of the more popular quarterbacks.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: We're going to see both Andrews and likely as pretty
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: chalky options. We're gonna see z eight Flowers get some
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: ownership not a ton, and then we're going to see
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Derrick Henry probably around fifteen percent. But where this could
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: really move is on the Cincinnati side. We have, you know,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: because Sicki's going to be very popular, Tinsley is going
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: to be popular with no t Higgins. Now, Chase already
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: was going to be popular. He's probably going to get
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: a boost from no Higgins as well. So now all
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, you have three popular pass catchers on
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: the Cincinnati side. The type of build that could really
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: take off in Steam is Joe Burrow's the quarterback. And
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: because we're now using a Burrow stack instead of Lamar stack,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: you say, okay, I want to kill the Lamar stack
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: by giving Derrick Henry all the touchdowns. So now all
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, this light starts. You look at your lineup.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: You think you have you know, a five percent Burrow,
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: but oops, Burrow, somewhere between ten and fifteen, all of
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: his past catchers are super popular, and Oops, Derrick Henry
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: got to thirty percent as the breakback. So that's something
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: I very much am going to kind of look at
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: over the the next day or so.
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: Basically, like the way I do this Steam analysis.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: Is I kind of identify the spot that I think
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: could really steam, where everything lines up like that where
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: just you know, one little decision or another little decision
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: leads to the same guy getting steamed. And then once
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: I have like the spot in mind that could steam,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: I then just go out and look for signs of
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: people you know, really liking that idea and playing it.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: And essentially, like where Steam really happens is when everyone
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: who's playing it thinks it's still sneaky.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: If everyone knows that it's popular.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna steam anymore because no one's super super
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: excited to play, because everyone's really excited to play something
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: they think is sneaky, So very much going to look
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: into that over the next kind of day and a
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: half or so whatever.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: But well, that's why I brought it up because this
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: is interesting to me, and I know I'm including a
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: position and running back that I'm not including in my
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: comparison piece. But if you look at like Burrow sixty
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: six hundred, Stafford seven k Okay, Stafford's a little bit
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: more Jamar Chase eighty one hundred, nikoua a little bit more?
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Got it? Okay, So got to find a little bit
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: of money Gseecki Parkinson Wash called similar right, well, Derrick
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Henry in that Burrow Chase Gaseecki with Henry, basically you
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: pick up that twelve hundred dollars by going to Jamison
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Williams at wide receiver, a guy we already talked about
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: could speed that game up. Maybe it's not a monra,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: you can't afford a monra you get, but yet people
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: are gonna move. Well, if everyone's people are like, everyone's
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be on that fifty five point total game, I'm
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: gonna go to the Ravens and Bengals. But all the
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: news in the Higgins chain of injuries and things that
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: have popped up have made its oh tight ends versus
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Bengals cheap guys that you need to fit studs. It's
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: like it all fits better in that lineup. So when
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: people move to this game thinking that that's the sneaky spot,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: it becomes the spot that steamed to your point, and
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: now it's like, well, shit, I could have just played
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: the afternoon game with the fifty five point total and
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: had everything I need over there. So that's another interesting
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: point I think, just to add.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: On, Yeah, that's a really good point. And I will
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: also say that I'm definitely not going to play Joe
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Burrow because this is like the quintessential spot where where
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: I talked about where Burrow should not become more popular
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: when his outlook becomes a lot worse when he no longer.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: Has t Higgins.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: Higgins and Chase are so important for each other. We've
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: seen it so often. Burrow spikes so frequently when he
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: has both of these guys, his smash rate really kind
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: of falls off the table. When either is missing, so
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: I will not be on this game. I also think
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: that this is a spot where Baltimore could just kind
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: of roll and you know win a you know, twenty
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: seven to fourteen type game. So yeah, I'm not going
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: to be on the Burrow side of things. But I
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: do think it's still worth tracking, particularly for the Dereck
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: Henry ownership, because if Henry is fifteen percent we talked
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: about earlier, like just how high his ceiling in this
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: matchup is, I'm very interested. But if I see this
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: team coming because the Cincinnati passings stack is gaining steam,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: that now Henry is going to be the preferred bringback
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: and he's going to be percent. Okay, well, now I'm
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: not going to be as interested in him. I might
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: try to get to Gibbs. I'll just go down and
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: you know, play both Tracy and Rodriguez or something like
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: that in that game. So it's a really really important
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: kind of ownership situation, regardless of whether you want to
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: play this game or not.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: So it's I think it's one of the key things
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: to kind of look out for the next twenty four hours.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're really just both manifesting for each other here,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: because he knows my team is Baltimore's. I'm certainly hoping
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: that's the case. And the funny part is where I'm
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: segueing next, and he probably knows it is the guy
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: that you mentioned earlier. Is the kind of the decision
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: making factor on where you're going to put the ownership
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: on Derrick Henry lies within your guy on your squad
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: those Eagles, and say Kwon Barkley at two hundred dollars
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: less than Derrick Henry at home, huge get rights. I
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: mean they're at home. The team total, you're playing the Raiders.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: Figure it out, like, let's get this done. What is
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: your outlook for your squad this week? Because realistically it's
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: immediately it's a good spot on paper, it's it's the
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: prices of the right on these guys. But man, is
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: it hard for people to make any put it. Look
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: at the guy asking earlier, is it Mariota or is
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: it hurts? When would that ever be a question besides
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: right now? That's why, So I'll let you take it
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: from there. But Barkley thoughts the Eagles in general here
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: in this matchup. I mean, it's a big slate. It's tough,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: So I.
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: Do a big game environments type projections chart in my
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: discord where I'm looking at a projected EPA success fright,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: explosive passtraight, and then adjusted lineyards success rate and explosive
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: rush percentage, And the Eagles don't look good in this
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: analysis in anyway. They actually look good from a projected
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: passing EPA standpoint, but almost the worst on the entire
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: slate from a projected adjusted lineyards offensively. So it's probably
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: not going to be a spot where Barkley is a
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: ton of room to run. If the Las Vegas defense
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: has a strength, it's run defense, partially because they care
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: too much about stopping the run and leaving themselves vulnerable
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: on the back end. But if Barkley does have a
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: good game, it's going to be because of the expl
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: a run game. And you know, no surprise there. That's
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: kind of been his forte over the last year and
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: a half, and even the two games now where he
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: has been very successful this year, it's been because he
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: broke the first run against the Giants for sixty five
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: years in a touchdown, just had the fifty yarder this
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: pass game. But I'm really not in on Barkley and
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: I'm probably not in on the passing offense either.
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: I do think like.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: It's been true all season, but the Eagles do have
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: a very, very very.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: Wide range of outcomes in any given game.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: We've seen their pass rate over expectation very more than
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: most teams. From game to game, We've seen their success
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: rate and their efficiency very more than most teams. And
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: this past week it was still ugly offensively, and there
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: were still way too many hitchouts, but there were more
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: crossing routes, there were more downfield routes. It wasn't more
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: aggressive game plan, and if not for a couple unlucky
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: interceptions hurts, his numbers would have looked a lot.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: Better than they were.
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: So I do think it's possible that the passing offense
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: could hit, possible that Saguan could hit. But on a
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: slate this size, where we have game environments that I
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: really like, this is just not a spot I want.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: And I think it actually kind of segues well into
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: just like the general thought of the slate, which is
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: when you have thirteen games, we say it every slight,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: but it's especially true now. It's not just who you
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: play and being right about who you're playing, it's also
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: being right about who you don't play, and when you
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: have a game that's this likely in the Philadelphia Las
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Vegas game to not produce any performances that you need
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: to have, I think it's worth just fading that game
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: and trying to make things easier on yourself rather than
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: playing the game hoping you get the really really really
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: lucky runout that someone from this game smashes. But now
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: you're also then automatically fading a higher probability game that
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: you otherwise could get into. So I think it's just
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: it's much better mathematically to just fade this game and
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: hope that the Eagles often continues to underwhelm the way
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: they have for multiple months now yeah.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Or flip it and like Kylee we talk about that
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: game earlier, or go in on it and say, look,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: it's probably not going to happen, but if it does,
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: the stack certainty of like Hurtz, Brown Smith Goddard, just
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: pick a couple, get someone from the other side or
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: not and run with it. One thing I will say
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: on that game that's intriguing to me at least is
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: Ashton genty is priced around Woody Marx. This has been
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: a great matchup for running backs. No Carter again for
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: the Eagles this week, and again is it likely? I
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: don't know, But at fifty eight hundred, for his talent
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: and for what they should try and do with who
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: they have at quarterback and the matchup they've got at hand,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: why not get him out there and just hand him
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: the ball? And I don't know, for as much certainty
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: as people seem to have on Woody Marx that I
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: don't have, then I'm just as fine to take some
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: tournament shots on Gendy. Not necessarily for my single entry
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about, but just a note. I would
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: bring that up in this game if you're looking for
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: something on the opposite side. I think he's definitely somewhat interesting.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: We can't talk about every game here, Alex, and we'll
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: get to our lane here shortly. But some people mentioning
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: in the chat about Ryce Young stacks with Ted anything
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: on that Saints Panthers game. Do you want to mention
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: it all?
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: God?
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: That game is so ugly from a game environment standpoint,
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: I think I'd be I'd be okay with a Tech
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: one off, It'd be okay with an Alave one off,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: with Juwan one off, although I will say I used
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: Juwan last week and he was fine, but I did
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: not like how often he was off.
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: The field on early downs.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: They played a lot of moreau, they played a lot
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: of like jumbo sets where Juwan wasn't on the field,
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: presumably because he's not a good enough blocker.
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I didn't like that.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: It might have been game driven, like just a game
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: specific thing, because there was a lot of rain and
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: New Orleans was trying to run the ball. Both teams were.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: It was really quite annoying as someone with a Tampa baystack.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so I think maybe you get a bounce
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: back and snap right and route share from Juwan, But
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: mostly from that game, I'm just interested in ten.
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: And olave one offs. One last thing I want to
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: say about the Philly stuff.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: It's worth noting this Las Vegas pass defense is bad
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: from an EBA per play allowed standpoint, really bad from
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: a success rate allowed standpoint. They're actually quite good from
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: an explosive pass rate allowed standpoint. To me, that does
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: not bode well for Philly, because when Philly has success,
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: it is through the explosive passage more so than a
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: success rate thing. So that's just another reason to think
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: that this probably isn't a smash spot for Hurts and
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: a quote unquote good game from him. In the offense
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: is just you get rid of the mistakes, you have
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: the ball a little bit better, you run the ball
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: a little bit better, and you score partially because you
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: get a better field position because the defense is once
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: again dominating, which I think they can against this Las
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: Vegas team. But nowhere in that do I see the
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: Hurts drops back forty times, throws for three hundred plus
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: and three total.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: Touchdowns or anything like that. So it's just not where.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I'm me to go.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the defenses in that game are both interesting too,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: because Eagles are thirty eight hundred, which I mentioned earlier,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: like Houston and Seahawks are both the popular defense is
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: when paying up, people are not going to who's the
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: four thousand dollars defense on this slate? Just remind me
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: somebody's four k oh the forty nine ers. Yeah, people
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: are not going to the forty nine ers or the
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Eagles as much here. And it's because the Woody Mark
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: stuff we always talk about this, that just boosts the
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: pairing of the combo, the Seattle stuff, you know, with
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: the expected News. It's gonna be Philip Rivers in there
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: for the Colts, So it's like things like that, just
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: boost that. And then on the other side, if it's
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: not going to be an explosive game for those guys,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: does the defense doesn't have to do that much when
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: they cost two thousand dollars like the Raiders do. So
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Raiders at two k just for the fact that you're
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: talking about fitting studs. A defense is a defense is
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: a defense. All these teams can play at some point,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: so we've seen it. People can say whatever they want.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Some of the worst defenses have shown up at the
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: craziest times at the NFL, especially this season. Literally anything
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: can happen, So don't mind the defenses in this game
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: can't hit all these other spots. Don't want to, you know,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: go through everything game by game or anything. Is there
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: any that I kind of missed out? I think like
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: the tet one off you mentioned or Olave was good.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: I would have said the same. By the way, for
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: Rashie Rice. Everyone knows my thoughts on my homes on
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: main slates, but Rice at seventy seven hundred, I think
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: is a very good play here. Just for a one off,
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: you know, just to throw in there. It's a guy
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: you can use anything on the Bills Patriots game. That
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: was the other one I guess that we didn't touch
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: on at all really, and it's somewhat interesting because it's
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Allen versus May. It's a division, it's a you know everything.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: This is a big boy game on this slate. Is
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: there anything with that game that stands out to you?
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's weather why it is not going to
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: be super great, right, it's a snowfalls all morning, should
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: start to taper off and clear out around kickoff, tempts
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: below freezing with wins at ten miles gusting a bit
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: over twenty. That's from Kevin Roth over at ourg and
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: any thoughts for you on this game?
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I initially thought, you know what, this actually might
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: be like a really underrated spot for James Cook.
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: The Patriots.
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: They are a good run defense, but they do allow
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: explosive runs, and so this could be one of those
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: spots where James Cook breaks off two forty yarders. But
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: his price has gotten to a point now where you're
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: just competing with such high probability plays around him that
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's worth it. Like you're the James
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Cook spot is very reminiscent of the Derek Ken spot.
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: But I think Henry's more likely to have the smash
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: and he's cheaper. So if you're gonna play that style
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: of running back, you just play Henry. Honestly, Saquon too,
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: like they're all three of them are kind of the same.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: You either get the explosive runs that turn it into
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: a smash spot, or you don't play the cheaper guys
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: who are more likely to actually have that outcome.
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: So I'm not interested there. And then yeah, I.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: Don't think I have interest in anyone from the New
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: England side or the Buffalo side. This Buffalo defense like
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: it's it's not a good defense. They're most vulnerable against
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: running backs because they're so undersized.
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: But the New England run game isn't it quite as good.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Plus if you're thinking, Okay, we're gonna take advantage of
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: how undersized they are, it might actually be like more
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: of a Romantre spot.
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: So it's just not anything I want to play with.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's hard to figure out. We were talking about
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: yesterday and it's like, if you want the Josh Allen
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Sean Tucker week it's like, yeah, you do that. This
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: week it's Josh Allen and Henderson, But then, like you said,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: it actually might be Stevenson, So then it's like, you know,
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: that makes it even more tricky, and then trying to
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: figure out these stacks are truly difficult on both sides.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: If if I was playing MMM this week, you know,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: I probably have five percent of Stevenson or something because
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: I could very easily see two touchdowns from him, and
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: they just actually say, like, Okay, in this matchup, we're
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: going to give him the bulk of the work. He
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: hit twelve for forty and three receptions last week for
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: forty yards against the Giants. How much of that was
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: gamescript To be honest, I don't know. I'd have to
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: go back and look at, you know, when when he
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: actually got those opportunities. But there's there's always a chance
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: that he's going to eat more into Trevion's workload. And
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: I think this matchup is is really well suited for
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: his quote unquote skill set. I say that because I
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: don't think he's that skilled, but you know this, this
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: is actually a matchup where he might be better suited to
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: have success.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is another interesting one, and we
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: could sort of you know, round it out as long
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: as we go a little longer anyway, so we don't
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: have to stop now. I just you know, if people
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: have more stuff they want to talk to the throw
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: it in the chat. I'm I'm sparking up now, Alex.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: I'm getting back into the swing of things. I'm feeling it.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: So you know, this is a mention for sure, to
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: two crappiest teams in a dome. Good way to put it. Yeah,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: But like Tyler Shuck and how much he ran last week,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that continues, but just a note
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: at forty nine hundred, if you put him with Olave
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: and Veley for example, and put Tet on the other side.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: I don't hate those types of builds when you just
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: say I'm going to use up all my wide receiver
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: slots on this the challenge, and I think where people
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: are going to struggle with that is because now you're
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: leaving out again, you have a flex, I get it
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: so you can still fit these guys in. But where
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: most people are thinking about it is then it's whatever
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: you put in just sort of fills it out with studs.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: But you you know, you'd have to make a decision
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: on still JSN Chase Pooka, amon Ra, like, oh, you're
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: leaving every one of those guys but one if you
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: even use that in a flex so it's like, yeah,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: you're down to one at that point. And that's why
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: there's people not necessarily thinking about it as much. But
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: if you could find a version of it that you like,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: I never have a problem with that. The stack rankings
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: over at Chip and Nation. Don't hate the shuck side,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: but I don't think there's too many other spots we
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: missed here. Is there, well, anything else you're thinking of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: over there? I mean the Bears Brown's game is not
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: gonna get talked about much, The Jets Jags not much
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: talk there. I just there's not much to talk about
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: in these spots. I also think the Jordan Love bo
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: Nicks game. Anything could happen, for sure, but it's like
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: a mini version of the Allen May game. It's like,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: who do you you know? It's really hard to like
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: plug this stuff in, especially in single entry, thinking, Okay,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: I feel really good about this build. It's just not
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: the spot that I would be targeting. So anything else
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: you see.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: Here, I've watched so many shows around the industry I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: always do just to kind of get a grasp of
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: ownership stuff. So apologies if I'm not remembering who said this,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: but I think it was Pat Mayo in your show
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: with him that made the point of Tony Pollard just
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: ran wild against Cleveland. Surely Ben Johnson can scheme, you know,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: a good run game plan. So I do think there's
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: there's some hidden upside with DeAndre Swift, but it's not
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: a game environment that I like, So it's not something
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: like I'm gonna go too fully. It's just maybe that
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: one play has some upside. And we do have a
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: nice projected expected rush rate for that Chicago offense anyway,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: so there's something there. I do want to address the
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: point about New Orleans and Carolina being in a dome.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: That definitely does help. The problem with this game is
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: more of a pacing game environment thing where it's just
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: really unlikely that these teams are pushing each other back
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: and forth, where they have to stay aggressive offensively, and
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: both of these offenses really like the idea and really
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: like the opportunity to slow things down, and so the
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: longer this game remains close, but more likely it is
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: that both offenses are playing a very risk averse style
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: of offense where they're just trying to run the ball.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: They're okay with punting as long as they don't turn
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: it over, and like you actually have to have enough
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: separation where one of the teams says, okay, we have
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: to get really aggressive and then the other team doesn't
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: just totally park the bus. So it's just a much
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: less likely game environment to go off than a lot
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: of the others in the sleep.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is like the element of the room.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, we hit on a little bit earlier, but
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: I guess you know, I'll add it to I got
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: two more things I'll add and then we'll finalize, but
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: just this will be the first one. Just your outlook
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: on this saying, let's say he doesn't play, he got
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: a limited practice in on Friday, he did not practice
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: Wednesday or Thursday. We're talking about Josh Jacobs on the Packers,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: of course, so the Emmanuel Wilson outlook, Alex, say, we
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: get this news before lock and we get the early
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning stuff where it says, hey, Jacobs is going
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: to be out today. We know projections will shift, we
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: know all of that, But what is your feeling on that?
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: Like you mentioned earlier, some thoughts around like Chubb being
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: out may not even be the best thing for woody
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: marks outside of you know, a few carries the way
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: they set things up there. But what's your thoughts on
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: the Jacob spot?
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: So, first off, I don't think anyone should pretend to
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: have any kind of certainty here from from what it
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: sounds like, is just a matter of does the swelling
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: disappear from his knee or not?
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: And none of us know the answer that question.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: He doesn't know the answer to that question is doctors
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: don't know the answer that question. We should not pretend
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: to know the answer that question. He very well might
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: sit very well play if he doesn't play. Wilson is interesting.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: In forty four hundred dollars, he probably projected a pretty
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: good value. I said, apparently incorrectly last time he was
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: the starter, that he didn't have the kind of ceiling
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: that I liked, while he went and had one hundred
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: yards or two touchdowns proved me wrong. But in this
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: matchup with Denver, I don't think he has much of
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: a ceiling, so I probably wouldn't play him anyway.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: But it you know, that's a single entry take.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: If if I was emmying, I would absolutely have a
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: bunch of spots where I'd be interested in making that pivot.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: And as always, like if you're thinking about doing something
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: with Wilson taking advantage of the potential that Jacobs is
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: going to miss, you just have to have stuff built
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: in right.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: So it shouldn't be that, oh, it's three forty.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: Five or three thirty whatever, and Emmanuel Wilson is now
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: going to be the starting running back because Josh Jacobs
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: was ruled out, So let me go figure out where
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: I can put Wilson. You want to have actual plans
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: in place where you know, if Jacobs doesn't play, I'm
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: switching from this two v two to this two v two.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: That includes Wilson.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: That's a much better way to approach it, and it's
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: gonna make sure you end up with the strongest line possible.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: Agreed. Yeah, that's something I always to talk about. I've
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: talked about a ton in my stuff in the DFS
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: Mastermind project, talked about a ton of my time doing
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: DFS content for years now. It is just like, I know,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: not everyone does this, and it's not for everyone but
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: I have a plan in place for sort of what
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: those twov twos and things look like. If this then that.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: That's why that's always been a popular thing between my
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: guy Title and I. We always talk with if this
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: then that. That's the whole point is if you're ready
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: for that, you're so much you're ahead of the field, right.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: It's the talk of this is got all motivational, but
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: like the preparation greater than planning. Like everyone plans to
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: play NBA DFS. I always use this example. Everyone plans
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: to play NBA DFS. They're gonna play tonight. They want
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: to get into the game, they're gonna do it, but
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: they're not really prepared for like if this chaos happens,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: then they don't have something ready versus I talked about
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: this a ton but one of the best to ever
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: do it, probably the best NBADFS player ever at Petty Theft.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: He'd been on a podcast and talked about he had
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: multiple csvs ready to go with his one fifty sets
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: based on the news. So well, you were like, oh shit,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I gotta go adjust for this late news. He was like,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: upload this CSV done because it's already ready. The preparation
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: just outworks those that everyone planned to play. They were
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: all gonna play DFS. He was more prepared than you,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: and that matters. And that's why when you have these
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: things ready and you can know this, and that's why
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: it's important when we talk about single entry focus. I
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: know you can't do that for your whole one fifty
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: max portfolio and you're just pressing some buttons in your
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: late swap or are using the optimizer whatever. Sure that's
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: better than most that is being prepared saying I'm gonna
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: know when I need to late swap and what I'm
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: gonna do in all this. But when it's one lineup
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: and it's your main lineup or your single entry, your
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: most money on it, or whatever that might be, you
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: should be prepared for this spot. Because if we don't
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: get the Jacob's News in the morning and you gotta wait,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: then what is your Emmanuel Wilson plan. It's gonna be everybody.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a lot of people's plan out there
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: that they're already thinking about. So if you're not thinking
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: about it, you're behind. And this is real money on
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: the line, So you got to think of it from
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: that perspective. At least in my opinion, last spot, Alex,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: and I promise I'll get you out of here. The
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers. We did not talk a lot about
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: this spot. Obviously we know about CMC, we understand that.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: But I think this is another good one. They're going
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: up against the Titans, big boy team, total at home,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: great matchup, rushing defense, whatever you want to look at
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: for whatever perspective you want to bring here. But Prety
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: sixty two hundred, Jennings fifty two hundred, Kiddle fifty four hundred, like,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: these guys are all pretty low priced, and you do
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: have a popular McCaffrey who I also think you can
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: stack with Purty quite easily on this late. But give
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: me your thoughts on these forty nine ers.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and quite frankly, the Niners defense is not good,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: so maybe they do get pushed at least a teeny
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: bit by this Tennessee team. I also think, by the way,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: like you actually could build a Tennessee stack and just say, hey,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: what if cam work keeps just continues to look a
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: little bit better and a little bit better each week.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: Matchup years good, and then you could bring it back
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: with multiple forty nine ers so that also is interesting as.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Something that's a crazy lineup man just thinking out loud.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: Right, like think about it Ward iomaner.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: DK or maybe you go just one of the receivers
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: and bring bring a tight end and then you bring
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: it back with like McCaffrey and Pearsall or McCaffrey Ann
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: Jennings something like that, like it's it's very viable and
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: then you could pay up for whatever studs you want
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: outside of that.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: But well, let me stop you there for two seconds,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: because you brought this point up so many times that
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: is good about it. It's often about James Cook, funny enough,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: and today I'm gonna bring it up about c MC.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: But like the weeks when James Cook is chalk, but
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: then nobody wants anything to do with the other side,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: and you're like, for James Cook, it's kind of gonna
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: be like a pace thing, a pick me up, a
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: speed up spot, like he's gonna need someone from the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: other side. And then you've got some really good secondary
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: stacks where you've been able to you know, hit well
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: with them where it's like I had James Cook, but
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: I had the guy no one had on the other
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: side to cut into his ownership and make him work.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: Do we need that for CMC? At nine K on
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: this late yet people are so scared to go to
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: any Tennessee guys because no one's touching any of these
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Tennessee guys.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: We don't need it for CMC. I think we might
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: need it for Party in the passing stack. I think
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: I think was Uticao who mentioned something like this, This
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: might be a spot where they just say, Okay, let's
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: get purty going for the playoffs.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: So maybe they take that type of route.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: But more often than not, like Party's smashes are gonna
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: come when the game is sped up, when he's having
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: to scramble, he's having to do stuff out of structure,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: and you know they're they're they're really trying to push
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: the ball down the field to make things happen quickly.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: So in that regard, I do think he needs to
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: be pushed a little bit. But ultimately my biggest take
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: on this game is it's a four to twenty five game,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: so you're gonna have as much information as possible before
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: you have to make a decision here, and Christian McCaffery
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: is the highest probability play in all of Fantasy football
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: and all of dfs.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: So when he's a late swap option.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: You just build a lineup that includes him, and you say, Okay,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: I hope things go well early on, and if they do,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: I stay the course with the highest probability play possible
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: in NFL dfs and Christian McCaffrey.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: And if things don't go well, and if I have
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: to pivot, I'm going to have that pivot built in already.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: So there are things you could do where it's like
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: McCaffrey and you know, a six thousand dollars receiver or something,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: and then you pivot to you know, Adams and Jamier
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: Gibbs or something like that. Maybe you do play into
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: the game stack that way if you want to, or
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: maybe you're already headed the eight ball and so you
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: actually just want to protect with a game stack of
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: like Pookah and Gibbs something like that.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm just fifilling ideas here, but the idea.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: Of course is you've got the highest probability play in
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: all of dfs, try and find a way to work
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: him into your lineup, and then pivot if you need to,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Because I think you can make the case of McCaffrey
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: that because they're such heavy favorites, and because we've seen
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: Brian Robinson get work throughout the year, and because they
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: now have their full complement of past catching weapons, that
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: maybe the ceiling isn't quite as good as what we
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: have typically seen from McCaffrey, but the is still fantastic
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: for him.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 3: So put him on your line if you're.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: Ahead of the eight ball, if you if the floor
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: is what really really matters, and just preserving the advantage
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: that the rest of your lineup has already given you,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: then he's the best possible option if you.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: Want to give a no, I love it. A couple
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: of final thoughts on that, just so you know, the
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: one case would be yes. If you're playing a two
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: running back lineup, it's kind of a little bit more
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: tricky because then you'd have to like, it's not tricky,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: but I would say, like, you've got Gibbs for two
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: hundred bucks less, But what's that really gonna do? And
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: again depends on what's left in your line if you
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: have two options though, or if he's a flex, you
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: actually have a ton of guys because you've got JSN
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, amongst others. But you got JSN, You've got Tet,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: You've got a Manra, you got Pooka, you got Adams. Like,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: there's so many ways, and if you have two guys
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: in there, you can flip it and put a cheaper
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: running back in that. But the running back that you'd
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: probably have to take a shot on that does not
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: feel good at all. But if you were looking to
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: make up ground, it's Jonathan Taylor, I think right eighty
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: five hundred, because I don't know if Gibbs is going
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: to really make anything up for you, as much as
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: leaving the five hundred bucks and playing a running back
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: that nobody is on in the afternoon, I get either
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: not on him, it's going against the Seahawks, But what if?
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: And what if By the way, we just got the
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: news it says it's trending to be rivers, which is
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: what we were expecting. But what if they just hand
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: the ball off and check it down a bunch, Like
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: we have no idea how they're going to work now,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: so it's a possibility.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just going to bring up the exact
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: same thing. So in fact, I think the move is
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: you build something like McCaffrey Kuka and then if you
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: need to pivot, you go to Taylor JSN.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: That's such a good pivot because.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: Of course the ceiling is still there and the ownership
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: is going to be crazy, crazy low on that combination.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: In comparison to McCaffrey, Buka and the other thing you
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: kind of alluded to it there is with Rivers starting,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: I have a lot of confidence in shanesych And and
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: I think the reason why Rivers is getting the start
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: on the reason why they brought him in is because
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: they're saying, our offensive scheme is so good that we
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: just need a quarterback who's able to execute it somewhat well.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: It's probably really bad for Alec Pearson and the deep
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: ball probably goes away to a larger degree.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: Maybe you're wrong about that.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: Maybe Rivers can still sling it a little bit better
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: than we're giving him credit for. But mostly I think
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: it's Rivers is going to be able to very quickly
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: diagnose which guy has been schemed open by the play
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: and get him the ball. And it makes sense for
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: Stikin to come in with a game plan of let's
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: figure out how to get Taylor the ball in space
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: as much as possible. We kind of know that we're
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: not going to be able to run the ball super well,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: so let's throw him three swing passes and two screens
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: and you know, maybe an option round here or there
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: or something like that, and maybe the receiving role is
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: significantly better for Taylor than it's been throughout the year.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: And it's already been better this year than it's million
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: years past. So there is a very real path to
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: a Taylor ceiling game here. And then you correlate it
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: with Jasn and you say, what if Jasn catches two
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: bombs and gets the ball right back to Taylor. So
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: I think it's a really really sharp way to build.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: Start with McCaffrey, Pooka if you can, and then pivot
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: to Taylor Jaysn if you need to.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: All right, I will add one more final point on
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers stuff, and then I'm actually gonna
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: segue it into my lane, so it'll give you time
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: to think and close out on yours. But I just
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: want to say that the forty nine ers thing too.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: I think people make a mistake a lot of the
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: time in this example where they say, okay, I heard
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: Alex say that for the rock Purty stuff. The Tennessee
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: team would need to push it, so I need to
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: find a run back. So I go Purdy, I go Jennings,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: I go Kittle. Whatever they do right, they roll with
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: it and then they struggle because, like well, he said,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: they need to be pushed. Is it DK? Is it
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: I a man?
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: Or?
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: Is it this? All you have to believe is that
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: Tennessee can push the game. You don't have to figure
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: out who that guy is if you don't want to,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: because it is tricky to figure out who the runback is.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: So you can still run a perty stack without a
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: Tennessee player and just say, man, I just think Tennessee's
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to do it. I don't know who
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be with. My lineup still looks great with Purdy,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: use this one, Purdy, Jennings and Kittle. I feel good
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: about that. I'm leveraging CMC gets these other studs. All
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: you have to believe is Tennessee can push it. And
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: I say that to segue into my leverage lane because
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: you just talked about the Colts and can they push
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: it and can they make this happen? I think they can.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: Is it gonna be Jonathan Taylor? I don't know. Is
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: he a possible great late swap option. Yes, we just
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: talked about this, But my lane is gonna be on
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: the other side, and I'm planting my flag with JSN.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: I really like the spot for him this week. I
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: think I'm gonna commit to Donald and JSN, and I
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: think what's interesting to me is I think Indy can
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: do enough. I'm not gonna try and figure it out
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: on my single entry. Like again, maybe jt ends up
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: getting in there via late swap or something, But with
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: Donald JSN is where I'm gonna plant because I think
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: Barner is still interesting. And I also think we saw
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: them start to finally get shaied going a little bit
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: last week. And if I do see this game getting
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: back and forth, and I like this almost thirty point
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: team total Seattle has at home, it's a really good,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: you know, option for them here to roll with. So
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Seahawks with Donald JSN. I
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: want to make JSN a priority over the Pookahs and
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: the Chases and the other guys in this lineup. So
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Donald and JSN and just hope,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: like you said, Indy can do enough. Don't have to
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: figure out who it is. But but hopefully that's the
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: case and I can get the rest of my lineup
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: filled out from their thoughts on that and then let
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: us know where you're going with your leverage lane for
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: week fifteen.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I really like this call, and I think it's
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: it's awesome that you went right to it after the
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: conversation we just had about Laswalk because you can put
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: mccaffree or even Pooka if it's the flex spot in
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: to start and then say, Okay, I'm a little bit behind.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: I need like the full ceiling outcome from from Donald
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: and JSN. So now I really really need them to
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: be pushed. So now I will go to Jonathan Taylor
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: because if Jonathan Taylor has a thirty five point game,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: now I think that Donald can have the three hundred
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: and four touchdown game where JASN goes for two hundred
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: and two or something like that, where it's a lot
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: less likely that happens if the Colts just lay an
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: egg offensively.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: So too, sorry to cut you off, but I'll look
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: at that too, based on Comparison's why I only want
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: to to Darnald and JSM. But if I I'll tell
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: you this. If I see a lineup with CMC that
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: somehow gets better or I it improves by getting that
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: five hundred bucks to j T, there's always that possibility,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: then I would just take on that risk because then
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: I can flip out of it if I had two
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: later as well, because I can still make the JTCMC
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: decision with all those options within my lineup later on.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, all good stuff to tie together. That's why
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: this show is so important, because we have to think
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: through it all before we get to those thoughts, and
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: you can see how those thoughts come together in our
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: own brains at the end of it. So I'll let
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: you go ahead, Alex with yours. But I love that call.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, And just like the last thing I'll say is,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: you know you can you can play the same thing
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: to the to the party stack that you were talking
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: about where you don't necessarily need a Tennessee bringback. Well,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: you can have like a let's say, a tight end
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: maybe it's Barner or someone like that. You can have
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: that guy plugged into your flex and then if you
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: really need the full ceiling outcome from Hurty in that stack,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: you need them to push. Okay, now you flop that
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: tight end to DK or to a con Quo or
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: you know, help someone like that. You just say, Okay,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: I need the full, full ceiling outcome from this game,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: which does get unlocked when you know the Tennessee offense
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: really pushes them and that dramatically improves the odds that
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: one of those guys is hitting.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: So I'll do that. So I think that's just a
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: really kind of great thing to talk through.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: And honestly, like, if we didn't just have this conversation,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: I might have gone with a leverage lane of a
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: McCafferty and Puka pairing or something like that and then
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: swapping that if I need to to Taylor and jays Han.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: But instead I'm going to go to Darius Slayton as
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: my leverage lane.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: And I'm going to Slayton either as part of a
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: Giant stack or as part of a Mariota stack.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 3: And the reason is it's just really rare.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: I think, where we get a guy who is this
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: likely to be really successful in a great game environment
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: that is as low owned as he is going to be.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: That is such a differentiator and a separator within such
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: a popular game. There's usually a trade off between success
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: rate and explosive play rate, And when you look at
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: the Giants, all of the active guys, all the qualified
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: guys this year, Slayton is very clearly the highest average
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: of the target guy, the highest explosive play rate guy,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: among the pass catchers.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: He also though has the highest access rate.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: It's very rare that someone like that is so much
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: better than all the other options in the offense in
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: both of those ways, both explosive play rate and success rate.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: And it's not necessarily saying that he's better than Jandelle Robinson,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: or it's not saying that he's going to get more
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: volume than Robinson as a result. But what it does
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: say is we can be very confident that his role
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: can only increase from here. They're only going to try
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: and get him more involved than what he's been and
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: when the opportunities come to him, he's having a lot
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: of success. This Washington defense is really weak in a
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: lot of the areas where he is strong, So I
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: think it's a great great spot for Slayton. I view
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: him as a high probability play who's also who also
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: gives us a ton of upside at low ownership. So
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: one of the best plays on the slate. I think
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: I already alluded to that earlier, so this probably isn't
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: a surprise that I'm going to Slayton as my lever tlam.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: But he makes the game work, he makes the game.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: He kind of alleviates the ownership issue with the game,
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: I think is the best way to put it. But
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: then also he's just a really really good play individually.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: So I love everything about the slain player this week.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: Not surprising. I go to Slayton all the time, but
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: this is as good as spot as we had. But frankly,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: like going to Slaton, this year has been really really
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: good for us. Right. He was one of the one
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: of the best captains in that New England game, was
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: the best flex on the Giant side in that New
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: England game, and he really did well both against Really
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: the Chicago game I think was the kind of the
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: quintessential example of just how good he can be, because
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: if Dark didn't get hurt in that game, he was
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: flying over one hundred yards. He was like two percent
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: on that game, and Dark was was going to be
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: the optimal quarterback as well. So it just shows how
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: much upside he has and how much upside, he brings
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: to the offense, to the whole w he's clicking yeah. Yeah.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: And lastly I will say too the nickname Darius break
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: the Slayton. We love that one. And this is giving
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: me Marvin Mims vibes. If you remember the Marvin Mims
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: week when you broke that one down. I think it
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: was Marvin Mims right then you went out and had
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: the big game that week that this feels like that,
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: like you could just play if Slayton makes your stuff work,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: fit them in there. Just got the official news. That's
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: I was caught up in here. We got the official
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: news that Rivers will start. Now it's their making it official,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: so it's what we expected. That doesn't change much to
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: what we've already talked about. Just want to make sure
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: everybody knows before we get out of here. Appreciate you,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: Alex Man. Let the people know everything you've got going
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: on and where they can find you. This is a
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: really fun one and I feel much much better now
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: about everything going into this slate. So it's good.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I did too.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna build in this lightsop stuff that we
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: talked through. Yeah, you can find all my stuff at
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: Alex Flickle one over on Twitter. All the ownership projections,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: all the great data that I reference you can find
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: over at FTN and then if you want the like
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: advanced level DFS theory, the projection charts that I'm doing.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: I actually so.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: I think one or two guys actually joined my discord
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: while we were live on stream, So definitely a lot
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: of leverage laying.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: Guys in there.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: It's been really cool to see so that all that
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: you can find too much Twitter, Yeah, for.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: Sure, definitely check that out and check us out over
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: at ship atnation dot com. You guys can get all
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: the action that we've got covered there for just nineteen
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: bucks for the five days. If you get in now,
• 1:21:20
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• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: night football, Sunda night football, the classic stuff. For tomorrow,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: We've got the twelve days of ship miss kicking off today.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: Follow us on x at ship at Nation there and
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: get them get in the fun. Today's you know, the
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  Speaker 1: starting point of it. The prizes are gonna get very
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: big by the end of the twelfth day when there's
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: over total. We're totaling over ten thousand and cash and
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: prizes for the fun little event. It's a social media
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: marketing and following play, so make sure you're involved there,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: but you'll see me breakdown. Today's task is to list
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: your favorite holiday movie and mine is on my shirt
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: in the video you can see it. It is the
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: Christmas Vacation National Lampoon. So love that stuff. But we
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching, for Alex and for
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: myself to Dagon tambo ledship it