Latest / Views from 6,230 / Aging America Meets AI: Investing in Two Powerful Secular Trends

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Aging America Meets AI: Investing in Two Powerful Secular Trends · Views from 6,230

• 0:10
  video1328054297: some of the most interesting investment opportunities aren't always found where everyone else is looking.
• 0:18
  video1328054297: Today, we're exploring two powerful secular themes shaping investment portfolios, the aging of America, and the continued build-out of artificial intelligence.
• 0:30
  video1328054297: We'll look into why senior housing may represent a compelling investment opportunity, the economics and risks behind the asset class, and the role it can play in a diversified portfolio.
• 0:43
  video1328054297: Then we'll turn to AI.
• 0:45
  video1328054297: Rather than looking at AI as, as simply a chip maker trade, we'll break down the different parts of the AI investment cycle, where we are today, and where the longer term opportunities and risks may be emerging.
• 1:01
  video1328054297: To help us tackle all this, I'm very excited to welcome Brock Campbell.
• 1:07
  video1328054297: Brock is the head of research and portfolio manager at BNY Investments.
• 1:13
  video1328054297: Brock, welcome and thank you so much for coming on.
• 1:17
  video1328054297: It's great to have you on.
• 1:18
  video1328054297: Really excited about this conversation.
• 1:22
  video1328054297: So can you please tell us a little bit more about yourself and BNY Investments?
• 1:27
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 1:27
  video1328054297: No.
• 1:28
  video1328054297: First and foremost, Ryan, thanks for having me on.
• 1:30
  video1328054297: I think we got a fun one lined up here.
• 1:32
  video1328054297: So between people getting older and artificial intelligence, you know, that's a weird bingo card to hit, but we'll, we'll do it on this pod.
• 1:39
  video1328054297: Um- I, I'm confident you'll be able to bring them all together.
• 1:44
  video1328054297: So, uh, yeah.
• 1:46
  video1328054297: So I've been with, uh, BNY Investments for, you know, going, going on 20-plus years.
• 1:52
  video1328054297: Uh, I can't believe it when I say it out loud.
• 1:54
  video1328054297: Uh, BNY Investments, uh, is a $2.2 trillion, uh, asset manager, um, you know, inside of, of BNY.
• 2:04
  video1328054297: Um, myself, I have spent much of my career doing infrastructure-related equity research, uh, as well as being a, a portfolio manager on, uh, an infrastructure fund Okay.
• 2:20
  video1328054297: Fantastic.
• 2:20
  video1328054297: You had 20 years at one p- you don't see that very often anymore, Brock, so congratulations.
• 2:25
  video1328054297: Hopefully BNY they gave you a ring or, you know- some medal or something like that on 20 years.
• 2:32
  video1328054297: Barely a millennial in the sense that typically millennials like to move around on jobs.
• 2:37
  video1328054297: I've been here 20, yeah, 21 years, so.
• 2:40
  video1328054297: That's fantastic.
• 2:40
  video1328054297: I think you have to be 50 to get a medal or, or- Oh, 50 a gold watch or something.
• 2:44
  video1328054297: So I got a little bit more.
• 2:45
  video1328054297: 29, 29 more years to go.
• 2:48
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 2:48
  video1328054297: Almost there.
• 2:49
  video1328054297: Get that Rolex.
• 2:50
  video1328054297: Get that Rolex, Brock.
• 2:53
  video1328054297: So let's just start at the top.
• 2:54
  video1328054297: We talked about, you know, at the open I mentioned secular themes, and just highlighted two of them.
• 3:02
  video1328054297: What are some of the secular themes you are focusing on?
• 3:07
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 3:08
  video1328054297: So we've, we've had a real close eye on the, on the senior housing secular theme, and it really starts with the baby boomer population.
• 3:19
  video1328054297: And I always bring my parents into these conversations, and typically, you know, it's not a recorded conversation, so they don't know that I'm using them when I discuss this.
• 3:27
  video1328054297: But my parents are both baby boomers.
• 3:29
  video1328054297: Um, so they, as many baby boomers, are fast approaching 80 years old, and what we've seen historically is when, when you hit 80 years old, you really require a good deal of skilled nursing or senior housing, uh, services.
• 3:47
  video1328054297: Um, so it's, it's, it's like this pig through a python.
• 3:52
  video1328054297: Again, don't tell my parents I'm calling them pig, but, like, you can see this mass, uh, of this baby boom population going through to this 80.
• 4:02
  video1328054297: Now, that's a huge demand poll that this space is about to experience.
• 4:07
  video1328054297: What we found in our research is it's extremely difficult to bring new facilities online.
• 4:13
  video1328054297: There's a lot of government, uh, oversight.
• 4:16
  video1328054297: There's a lot of regulatory, uh, red tape to do that.
• 4:19
  video1328054297: So what we see as, as we look out, is a relatively flat supply line with an upward sloping demand.
• 4:27
  video1328054297: Um, and that's an extremely compelling, uh, setup.
• 4:31
  video1328054297: So as they progress through, utilization rates, right, beds are gonna get filled, and then you're gonna see, we believe, a really attractive cashflow, uh, growth story for these companies that candidly have been in a pretty challenging position.
• 4:47
  video1328054297: COVID was extremely challenging for the healthcare REIT skilled nursing facilities.
• 4:51
  video1328054297: There's been some an- anxiety around payer mix and payer concerns.
• 4:56
  video1328054297: Um, but as we progress today, those stocks look very attractive from a valuation perspective, and they absolutely are not pricing in what we see on, on the secular growth side.
• 5:07
  video1328054297: Interesting.
• 5:08
  video1328054297: You know, we talk a lot about demographics and aging America.
• 5:13
  video1328054297: One of the conversations really is in focus on senior housing investments or investing in this space and the opportunities there.
• 5:20
  video1328054297: So I'm glad you put that out on exactly the economics and what's driving the opportunities there.
• 5:26
  video1328054297: And you mentioned it- About REITs.
• 5:29
  video1328054297: When I think of potentially senior housing investments, I, I think the first thing I think of is real estate in nature.
• 5:35
  video1328054297: Mm-hmm.
• 5:35
  video1328054297: More of a real estate investment.
• 5:38
  video1328054297: Is that what the investment is mostly when you're looking at senior housing investments?
• 5:44
  video1328054297: Can you tell us more about it?
• 5:45
  video1328054297: Is it more REITs?
• 5:46
  video1328054297: Is it healthcare?
• 5:48
  video1328054297: Like, what are those investments?
• 5:50
  video1328054297: What makes up senior housing investments?
• 5:53
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 5:53
  video1328054297: So it is a relatively broad category.
• 5:57
  video1328054297: For our infrastructure fund, it is going to be the, the REITs, the real estate investment trusts.
• 6:02
  video1328054297: And, and why is that?
• 6:04
  video1328054297: You know, being an invest- uh, infrastructure manager, I really love, uh, the predictability of the cash flows.
• 6:11
  video1328054297: I love the consistency of those businesses.
• 6:14
  video1328054297: Uh, so we look to invest in the most stable components of the healthcare, uh, and senior living, um, opportunity set.
• 6:23
  video1328054297: There are many ways to participate in this, in this theme, but for our fund, what fits our philosophy and our process would be that REIT space.
• 6:32
  video1328054297: Okay, fantastic.
• 6:33
  video1328054297: And, and that makes sense, um, considering your infrastructure background too, into your history there.
• 6:40
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 6:40
  video1328054297: Um, you mentioned the economics behind senior housing, why you believe it's attractive is the, the basically supply-demand dynamics of the, of the industry, of that sector.
• 6:53
  video1328054297: Do you believe the sector is attractive to other...
• 6:56
  video1328054297: Is there other reasons why it's attractive other than just supply and demand?
• 7:00
  video1328054297: You mentioned ca- cash flow.
• 7:01
  video1328054297: Are there other reasons why maybe other folks, investors should be looking at this space?
• 7:08
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 7:09
  video1328054297: So the, the big opportunity is going to be that supply-demand mismatch.
• 7:13
  video1328054297: That's gonna drive a, a change, we believe, in that business momentum.
• 7:17
  video1328054297: However, these businesses on their own are throwing off a great deal of cash flows.
• 7:22
  video1328054297: Many of them have 5, 6, 7% dividend yields, which are really attractive sources of what we believe is sustainable and consistent income.
• 7:31
  video1328054297: So, so we kinda think you're getting it both ways.
• 7:34
  video1328054297: You're getting an inexpensive stock, but a really attractive secular theme.
• 7:39
  video1328054297: That's a combination that's, that's relatively unique in investing, and that's why, uh, we've been particularly excited about, about this space.
• 7:46
  video1328054297: I would also say these businesses aren't as economically sensitive as, uh, many businesses in, in many portfolios.
• 7:54
  video1328054297: So what does that mean?
• 7:55
  video1328054297: You know, if we do enter a period of economic uncertainty, these types of businesses tend to hold up a bit better, so you get a little bit of downside protection, uh, on top of that.
• 8:06
  video1328054297: Yeah, interesting.
• 8:07
  video1328054297: The 5...
• 8:07
  video1328054297: You said 5 to 6% yield, that really piqued my interest there.
• 8:12
  video1328054297: And y- especially over years, you know, now yields are a little bit higher, more attractive for, for the savers out there.
• 8:23
  video1328054297: 5 to 6%'s very attractive.
• 8:25
  video1328054297: What are the risks to that?
• 8:27
  video1328054297: Obviously, Parag, we know there's no free lunch in this industry.
• 8:32
  video1328054297: So, and you mentioned there's some downside protection, it's not as sensitive to maybe economic cycles.
• 8:39
  video1328054297: What are the risks there?
• 8:41
  video1328054297: Because 5 to 6% for somebody who's looking for income that doesn't have to go to private credit, doesn't have to extend into their risk, um, profile- Right but there's gotta be some there.
• 8:55
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 8:57
  video1328054297: I, uh, I, there's, yeah, the, the free lunch thing is a great point, and, um, the, the, the way you get comfortable with investing in businesses like, like these is while the headline metrics look attractive, while the thematic
• 9:13
  video1328054297: setup looks attractive, you really have to dig in.
• 9:16
  video1328054297: Right?
• 9:16
  video1328054297: You really have to understand what are the sensitivities, what are the, what is that kind of event that could derail this thesis?
• 9:22
  video1328054297: And, you know, we have, uh, a strong fundamental equity research team that does this, this deep analysis for us, so they can understand, you know, payers, uh, concerns.
• 9:32
  video1328054297: Those people that are actually renting the facility or occupying the facilities, what's their ability to pay that rent?
• 9:37
  video1328054297: Because if rents aren't able to be paid, then yes, the thesis does, does break down.
• 9:42
  video1328054297: So, you know, I probably am making it sound too simple, right?
• 9:46
  video1328054297: You know, buy a, buy a skilled nursing facility and, and it's gonna be 5 to 8% yield and, and all these great secular themes, but it's so much work to go in and understand property by property or, or
• 9:56
  video1328054297: talk to the management team and understand their capital, uh, deployment.
• 10:00
  video1328054297: And, um, so that's how you get comfortable, and that's how you try to avert some of these key concerns that would, that would affect these businesses.
• 10:07
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 10:08
  video1328054297: And Brock, please keep it simple, especially for me.
• 10:11
  video1328054297: Please keep it simple.
• 10:12
  video1328054297: I'm a big keep-it-simple person, so.
• 10:14
  video1328054297: Yes.
• 10:14
  video1328054297: I love it.
• 10:15
  video1328054297: I love it.
• 10:16
  video1328054297: I, I am, too.
• 10:17
  video1328054297: Especially in this industry, there are so many things, terms and acronyms- Oh, yeah that go way over my head, that sometimes I'm on Google trying to...
• 10:26
  video1328054297: AI trying to figure out what they are while we're talking, so.
• 10:29
  video1328054297: I had a boss that told me if I couldn't explain an investment case on the back of a note card, I was overcomplicating it.
• 10:35
  video1328054297: So I'm a big conclusion with three key points, and then I move on.
• 10:40
  video1328054297: I love it, uh, especially now with all the very complex ETFs.
• 10:45
  video1328054297: We're getting sidetracked here.
• 10:46
  video1328054297: Right.
• 10:46
  video1328054297: All the complex ETFs where- Yeah I can't figure 'em out.
• 10:49
  video1328054297: This is one case where investing in a re- real estate, right?
• 10:54
  video1328054297: You're collecting rent, you're collecting those payments, and- Yep you know, it's pretty straightforward for investors.
• 11:02
  video1328054297: Yep.
• 11:02
  video1328054297: And paying attention.
• 11:02
  video1328054297: I, I think so.
• 11:03
  video1328054297: And you can touch it and feel it, which always makes me feel good.
• 11:06
  video1328054297: Yeah, exactly.
• 11:08
  video1328054297: So you talked about the risks.
• 11:10
  video1328054297: What benefit does senior housing bring to investment portfolios?
• 11:15
  video1328054297: Is it, you know, we talk about REITs.
• 11:17
  video1328054297: A lot of people know the benefit to REITs.
• 11:19
  video1328054297: Is it similar there, or is there something else that may be a different benefit or role senior housing plays in a portfolio that might be a little bit different than your commercial real estate or, um, residential real estate?
• 11:35
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 11:35
  video1328054297: So senior housing is, is a very unique component inside the REIT space.
• 11:41
  video1328054297: And, you know, we've, we invest in, in other REITs as well and, you know, the structure is, is very attractive for investors that are looking for those downside protection plus inflation generation.
• 11:51
  video1328054297: But for, for senior housing and for the healthcare space, it- the unique differentiator has to be the aging demographics.
• 11:58
  video1328054297: It's, it's so difficult in investing to, um, see with such clarity a mismatch of supply-demand as what we're seeing in senior housing.
• 12:07
  video1328054297: So when we look at it in our portfolio construction, we consider it a very, uh, stable, consistent asset class, so we look to, to participate in that for its downside protection.
• 12:17
  video1328054297: Also, it's diversification, right?
• 12:19
  video1328054297: If you think of all the things in your portfolio, you know, not many of them probably looks like senior housing, right?
• 12:24
  video1328054297: Not many of them has those correlations, those factor exposures.
• 12:27
  video1328054297: So by putting a unique asset like that into your portfolio, we believe that it offers, uh, correlation diversification benefits in addition to all those exciting things on, on getting older.
• 12:40
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 12:40
  video1328054297: This is so much fun, Brock, about getting older.
• 12:44
  video1328054297: But, uh, I'm glad you brought up diversification.
• 12:46
  video1328054297: It's so hard now, I think harder than ever to find diversification.
• 12:50
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 12:50
  video1328054297: Equities and typical- Yeah traditional bonds, their correlation is higher than ever, so that kind of breaks down that 60/40 portfolio.
• 13:01
  video1328054297: Then if you want more diversification, a lot of people are going to alternatives, private markets.
• 13:07
  video1328054297: There comes the risk.
• 13:08
  video1328054297: So I'm glad you brought up diversification.
• 13:11
  video1328054297: And so when you're looking at a full portfolio, and obviously- Mm I know there's always the answer of, "Well, it depends on the investor's risk tolerance, objectives."
• 13:21
  video1328054297: Mm.
• 13:21
  video1328054297: But is there, like, a earmark to senior housing?
• 13:24
  video1328054297: Maybe you should look at 5%, 10%, um, of the portfolio.
• 13:30
  video1328054297: Does it fit into the alternative space, fixed income?
• 13:36
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 13:37
  video1328054297: So I'm gonna, I'm gonna broaden out the discussion to include all of infrastructure because many of the assets look and act similar to, to senior housing specifically.
• 13:47
  video1328054297: Um, and candidly, um, I never knew the answer to this question on where it's at.
• 13:52
  video1328054297: I'd always say, "This is a, you know, these are the great opportunities in infrastructure."
• 13:55
  video1328054297: So I started asking the smart, you know, the smart clients that I have, and we have some clients that are unbelievably intelligent and thoughtful on, on where they place this asset class.
• 14:04
  video1328054297: And what, what they've told us is, you know, you said 60/40.
• 14:08
  video1328054297: These assets look a lot like 60/40 in how they behave, right?
• 14:12
  video1328054297: Low economic sensitivity, consistent cashflow generation.
• 14:15
  video1328054297: I would say that cashflow generation has inflation protection on it, which is kind of a unique, uh, component, a unique kicker on top of it, but it also has capital appreciation.
• 14:24
  video1328054297: So if you kind of look at it in a silo, it almost looks and feels like a 60/40.
• 14:30
  video1328054297: So what our clients tell us is, you know, they place it right above their most risky fixed income allocation and right below their most defensive equity allocation.
• 14:39
  video1328054297: It kind of sits in the middle if you think of that spectrum of allocations.
• 14:43
  video1328054297: Um, you know, we believe it should provide downside protection, but candidly, it's not gonna get the upside capture that maybe your more economically sensitive, uh, or momentum-driven equity strategies will.
• 14:55
  video1328054297: But I think our clients know and, and respect it for, for that ballast that it puts right in the center of that portfolio.
• 15:02
  video1328054297: Yeah, and that's important to know, I think.
• 15:05
  video1328054297: You know, like a sports team, football, every, every position has a, has a role, and it's important to know where senior housing fits in it.
• 15:15
  video1328054297: Like you said- Yeah it's protecting more on the downside, which for a lot of people is very important right now.
• 15:21
  video1328054297: They've gained a lot of assets.
• 15:23
  video1328054297: Their assets have accumulated.
• 15:25
  video1328054297: Yep.
• 15:25
  video1328054297: Let's protect it now, right?
• 15:27
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 15:27
  video1328054297: Especially as they get older.
• 15:29
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 15:29
  video1328054297: We're like your blind side, right?
• 15:31
  video1328054297: We're your, we're your, we're your lineman on the blind side.
• 15:34
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 15:35
  video1328054297: Yeah, exactly.
• 15:36
  video1328054297: And I often talk...
• 15:37
  video1328054297: I'm so glad too, Brock, you're spot on about bringing up downside protection.
• 15:44
  video1328054297: To me, I talk a lot on this podca- obviously about risk, about, on this podcast about what is the risk of investing?
• 15:52
  video1328054297: And to me, it's losing my money.
• 15:54
  video1328054297: It's not volatility.
• 15:55
  video1328054297: Get...
• 15:56
  video1328054297: Brock, give me all the upside volatility you want.
• 15:59
  video1328054297: It's losing my money that- Yeah I'm worried about.
• 16:02
  video1328054297: I wanna protect the downside.
• 16:04
  video1328054297: So a good option here for those investment portfolios to help reduce the, the downside losses.
• 16:12
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 16:13
  video1328054297: So last thing here on senior housing.
• 16:15
  video1328054297: Are there any misconceptions out there to investing in senior housing that you hear objections to, "Well, I don't wanna invest in senior housing"?
• 16:24
  video1328054297: Do you hear any out there that kind of you hear oft- hear often?
• 16:31
  video1328054297: I think like most people, I'm, I'm biased in, in recency, right?
• 16:37
  video1328054297: 2020 was a tough year.
• 16:38
  video1328054297: 2024 has been t- so there's been a...
• 16:41
  video1328054297: Recently, there's been some really challenging periods for senior housing, and I do think there were some unique events that occurred, and I think it's that recency bias that's keeping investors from, from truly appreciating what this new dynamic looks
• 16:54
  video1328054297: like.
• 16:55
  video1328054297: So, um, I think if you're going to invest in the space, I'd absolutely encourage you to do your work.
• 17:02
  video1328054297: I mean, to understand truly the r- the, uh, the credibility of the rent payer.
• 17:08
  video1328054297: Like, that is what is gonna separate the winners from the losers.
• 17:11
  video1328054297: Not everyone gets to ride the wave up because there are gonna be some hiccups.
• 17:15
  video1328054297: So, you know, I think that recency bias, you know, creates a opportunity from valuation.
• 17:20
  video1328054297: But I, it's...
• 17:21
  video1328054297: I would say to participate, you do need to do your homework on those, on those specific names.
• 17:26
  video1328054297: And I'm glad you brought up credit analysis.
• 17:29
  video1328054297: You know- Yep is it a lot...
• 17:30
  video1328054297: We hear that word a lot obviously in fixed income.
• 17:33
  video1328054297: Does that also transfer over to the senior housing too?
• 17:37
  video1328054297: Is this detailed- Yeah, this- credit analysis?
• 17:40
  video1328054297: So my wife does fixed income, and I can tell you, fixed income investors are much smarter than equity investors.
• 17:45
  video1328054297: That's why, that's what I'm told all the time.
• 17:47
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 17:47
  video1328054297: But, uh, it, it's true.
• 17:48
  video1328054297: That credit work is so, it can be so difficult, but it's so critical.
• 17:53
  video1328054297: Like, credit work isn't critical for every investment case, but for one like this where my ability to pay a dividend is predicated on the ability of the, the component that's paying me rent, that is, that's where all the
• 18:05
  video1328054297: legwork is.
• 18:06
  video1328054297: Um, so yeah, I could see very, very similar, um, correlations to that analysis.
• 18:12
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 18:12
  video1328054297: To your wife, yeah.
• 18:13
  video1328054297: Uh, cr- uh, fixed income, it's a smart money.
• 18:17
  video1328054297: That's a smart money.
• 18:18
  video1328054297: Everything follows yields, right?
• 18:19
  video1328054297: Everything follows yields.
• 18:21
  video1328054297: So true.
• 18:23
  video1328054297: Yes.
• 18:23
  video1328054297: Yes.
• 18:24
  video1328054297: Awesome.
• 18:25
  video1328054297: Brock, I'm really glad.
• 18:26
  video1328054297: A great conversation there about senior housing.
• 18:30
  video1328054297: Important one, especially with the aging demographics of the US.
• 18:33
  video1328054297: I love it.
• 18:34
  video1328054297: So let's talk about the other popular theme here, and that's the AI trade.
• 18:40
  video1328054297: It's like every conversation, no matter what we talk about, kind of includes AI.
• 18:45
  video1328054297: But let's talk about investing in AI, which I think is, is very interesting.
• 18:51
  video1328054297: It's more than just chip makers.
• 18:53
  video1328054297: It's more than just Nvidia.
• 18:55
  video1328054297: Everyone thinks, "Oh, just Nvidia or the hyperscalers."
• 18:58
  video1328054297: How do you view, view the AI trade?
• 19:01
  video1328054297: Are, are there different parts to it that you look at?
• 19:06
  video1328054297: So when the AI trade started, you're absolutely right, it was, it was localized to the, to the first pinch point, which was access to chips.
• 19:15
  video1328054297: Uh, the market quickly realized a second pinch point was access to electrons or power.
• 19:20
  video1328054297: So a chip is fine, but it doesn't do much without the power coefficient added to it.
• 19:26
  video1328054297: So what do we see today?
• 19:27
  video1328054297: We see an unbelievable build-out of electrical infrastructure.
• 19:32
  video1328054297: We've started this in the United States.
• 19:34
  video1328054297: Um, I would say infrastructure moves very slow.
• 19:37
  video1328054297: It's like a battleship turning.
• 19:39
  video1328054297: So we're starting to see some of those investments come through.
• 19:42
  video1328054297: We're starting to see companies raise their earnings growth targets, which is very exciting.
• 19:47
  video1328054297: Uh, but because we're a global manager, because we have a global perspective, we can look at Europe, and they haven't started on that.
• 19:55
  video1328054297: So we think an attractive opportunity is the European electrical infrastructure space, because we do believe that things like data sovereignty, right?
• 20:03
  video1328054297: I don't want my data in another country.
• 20:05
  video1328054297: You don't want your data in another country.
• 20:06
  video1328054297: That's, that's what this emerging data sovereignty theme is talking about.
• 20:10
  video1328054297: We think Europe is, uh, on the come on that theme, and we do believe there's gonna be a data center build-out.
• 20:17
  video1328054297: So I think in the US we're...
• 20:18
  video1328054297: I think we're all talking about it.
• 20:19
  video1328054297: We're all talking about grid constraints and power demand.
• 20:23
  video1328054297: I think in Europe, I think they still need to, um, they still need to develop and build that out Yeah, that's great, Brock.
• 20:30
  video1328054297: I'm glad you brought up, um, the Euro- European infrastructure.
• 20:35
  video1328054297: Most of the time we're just focusing on the US and the AI build-out there.
• 20:40
  video1328054297: Your, uh, background in infrastructure I'm sure plays a, you know, a very...
• 20:45
  video1328054297: is very useful where we're at now when you're talking- Yeah about the energy infrastructure and just- Yeah, yeah where we're at.
• 20:52
  video1328054297: Do you think we're still there in that, in what you guys call are waves of the AI investment theme?
• 20:59
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 20:59
  video1328054297: Do you think we're currently still in the infrastructure, or are we beyond that?
• 21:03
  video1328054297: By the way, Ryan, it, it was, I, I've been doing this for close to two decades, and it's never been cool to be in infrastructure- until Sam Altman came around and invented ChatGPT.
• 21:12
  video1328054297: So, like, this is new to me.
• 21:13
  video1328054297: I'm usually not the cool kid getting on podcasts.
• 21:15
  video1328054297: Mm-hmm.
• 21:16
  video1328054297: I'm usually, you know, grinding away in the Excel spreadsheets.
• 21:19
  video1328054297: But this is, uh, this is fun.
• 21:20
  video1328054297: I appreciate Sam, uh, doing that for me.
• 21:23
  video1328054297: Uh, we are in...
• 21:27
  video1328054297: You know, the way we think about it is there's three main waves we're gonna go through.
• 21:30
  video1328054297: One is the chips wave.
• 21:32
  video1328054297: We need, you need to compute.
• 21:34
  video1328054297: The second is gonna be the power wave, the grid infrastructure.
• 21:36
  video1328054297: So we've gone from wave two, wave one into wave two.
• 21:40
  video1328054297: The wave three is that implementation wave.
• 21:44
  video1328054297: When are we gonna start hearing from all the companies talk about, "Hey, we put a billion dollars in.
• 21:49
  video1328054297: We think we're gonna get, you know, payback on that within 12 months.
• 21:53
  video1328054297: And by the way, we're gonna spend $3 billion next year"?
• 21:56
  video1328054297: You know, I think we're starting to get inklings of that this earning season.
• 21:59
  video1328054297: I think we get more inklings of that next earning season.
• 22:02
  video1328054297: So everyone in the world right now is concerned about three letters, ROI, right?
• 22:06
  video1328054297: If ROI doesn't come through, if there's no return on this investment, the hyperscalers will curtail their investment, and that unravels the whole investment theme of chips, power, and enabling.
• 22:18
  video1328054297: So what we think happens is we think we're gonna hear a lot more about companies talk about the, uh, excitement of AI, the leverage of AI, that third wave, which is then gonna reinforce a new wave of investments.
• 22:30
  video1328054297: Um, where do I think we are in the cycle?
• 22:32
  video1328054297: I mean, in the infrastructure side, I mean, if we can go back to sports analogies, we're first inning.
• 22:38
  video1328054297: I mean, it takes so long.
• 22:39
  video1328054297: It takes, you know, a coup- If you want to build a power plant, it would take you a couple years just to permit.
• 22:44
  video1328054297: It would take you a couple years to get the actual asset, and then good luck finding, you know, anyone to, to build it, to construct it.
• 22:51
  video1328054297: Um, so these things are slow moving.
• 22:54
  video1328054297: It's gonna come, uh, over decades, not over years or quarters.
• 22:59
  video1328054297: Yeah, and I'm glad you say even though we're moving very fast in AI- Yeah especially in the implementa- It's like every day we're learning something new about what AI can do.
• 23:10
  video1328054297: We're still at the, like you said, inning number one of building it out- Yeah and where we're at.
• 23:17
  video1328054297: Do you think...
• 23:18
  video1328054297: You mentioned ROI.
• 23:19
  video1328054297: I hear that a lot.
• 23:20
  video1328054297: Do you think that's the biggest risk to the AI trade, and bigger term, is these hyperscalers not achieving their ROI goals?
• 23:31
  video1328054297: Yes.
• 23:32
  video1328054297: I think that's the headline that the market is concerned about.
• 23:35
  video1328054297: You know, it's, it's funny if you start to look at the, the financing spreads of some of the debt deals coming across, it's widening, widening, widening.
• 23:44
  video1328054297: And I guess there's, there's two schools of thought.
• 23:45
  video1328054297: Maybe it's technical, it's just too much supply, or maybe there's concerns about the credit quality, et cetera.
• 23:50
  video1328054297: Um, you know, it's probably a, probably a combination of both.
• 23:54
  video1328054297: But the number one thesis breaker that I hear is, you know, this is essentially, uh, you know, blank check companies chasing a future that's not gonna pay for itself.
• 24:08
  video1328054297: Um, if you kinda think of, like, 4G development, like, that was amazing, but anyone that, like, built out 4G didn't make any money on it.
• 24:16
  video1328054297: It was the creation of new industries.
• 24:17
  video1328054297: Like, now I could watch Netflix on my phone, or I could use Uber to get a car.
• 24:22
  video1328054297: It wasn't the companies that were actually building it out.
• 24:24
  video1328054297: So I think you have to be concerned.
• 24:27
  video1328054297: How...
• 24:27
  video1328054297: Why I feel comfortable with the ROI is, is twofold.
• 24:31
  video1328054297: One, uh, I personally embedded artificial intelligence in nearly everything I do.
• 24:37
  video1328054297: Um, and two, we're starting to see companies imp- increase token costs, and I don't think we're seeing really, um, people abandon AI efforts.
• 24:48
  video1328054297: So I do think token costs were probably set intentionally a bit low.
• 24:53
  video1328054297: I do think as they increase, you know, clearly that's gonna be beneficial to the return on these investments.
• 24:58
  video1328054297: But importantly, the volume and the demand for these services haven't changed because of those increases.
• 25:03
  video1328054297: So I find that to be incredibly bullish, um, and I think it's just a matter of time when that ROI comes through.
• 25:10
  video1328054297: Yeah, I agree too.
• 25:12
  video1328054297: And AI is not a fad, it's here to stay.
• 25:15
  video1328054297: It's only gonna get more and more important.
• 25:17
  video1328054297: Like you said, it's every aspect of your life.
• 25:20
  video1328054297: I'm getting there, too.
• 25:21
  video1328054297: Um, I, I haven't quite turned into a robot yet, but who knows?
• 25:26
  video1328054297: We, we may get there.
• 25:28
  video1328054297: But, you know, you talked about the, the infrastru- that's your, uh, expertise, infrastructure, you know, and the hyperscalers, the chips.
• 25:38
  video1328054297: At some point, that ROI or those huge investments are gonna slow down when the infrastructure is built out.
• 25:44
  video1328054297: Yeah.
• 25:44
  video1328054297: Do you think then that trade...
• 25:46
  video1328054297: Are we...
• 25:46
  video1328054297: You know, we're still ways off, like you said, but that'll slow down.
• 25:50
  video1328054297: We're kinda seeing the markets, too.
• 25:52
  video1328054297: There's been a lot of volatility in the chip makers, the infrastructure- Mm-hmm that wave of AI trade.
• 25:59
  video1328054297: Are we starting to focus more on the longer term play and the im- people are implementing it, whether it's financials, healthcare, utilities?
• 26:09
  video1328054297: It's been a wild two Q, right?
• 26:11
  video1328054297: I mean, coming in through two Q, uh, you know, who would've thought the, the hardware optical names would've done what they did?
• 26:19
  video1328054297: And, and then that kind of volatility, we called it like a digestion period when they all went from, you know, 30 times EBITDA down to 25 or 20.
• 26:29
  video1328054297: You know, the question was that digestion, was that heartburn?
• 26:31
  video1328054297: Who knows?
• 26:31
  video1328054297: Who knows?
• 26:32
  video1328054297: Um, you know, there was a lot of other falls during that period.
• 26:36
  video1328054297: You heard about token maxing, companies curtailing token usage because token prices were getting out of control.
• 26:42
  video1328054297: So there's been a lot in the blender.
• 26:44
  video1328054297: That's a sort of way of putting it.
• 26:46
  video1328054297: I think the market, because they've been rewarded so much on finding and identifying these pinch points...
• 26:52
  video1328054297: So chips, if you found that pinch point, you invested in it early, you were rewarded, and you saw great momentum.
• 26:57
  video1328054297: Power, if you invented it, if you invested in nuclear power early before everyone realized nuclear would be the source for many of this, you were rewarded.
• 27:05
  video1328054297: So I think what you see is the market is willing to pay higher and higher multiples because they know that when these pinch points get identified, the, the market will reward them.
• 27:14
  video1328054297: Because of all of this, I think it causes more noise than the reality.
• 27:17
  video1328054297: It al- it's almost like the inverse of a duck, right?
• 27:21
  video1328054297: A duck's very calm on the bottom and churning underneath.
• 27:23
  video1328054297: It feels like the market's of the churn, and the theme is, is doing its thing.
• 27:27
  video1328054297: Like, I don't think anything in the fundamentals of artificial intelligence has changed.
• 27:30
  video1328054297: It just happens that the market is quite volatile.
• 27:33
  video1328054297: Um, I think it, you know, investors probably should take a, a broader, longer term, uh, to the theme.
• 27:41
  video1328054297: And I...
• 27:42
  video1328054297: You know, you do have to be opportunistic when, when things do get a bit bubbly, and you do have to recognize how much that demand and optimism has been pulled forward.
• 27:51
  video1328054297: In infrastructure, there's gonna be pockets, yes, even today, where too much of that optimism is, is priced in the series, but that's why you have to be valuation-focused and an active investor, and I think you can navigate it
• 28:02
  video1328054297: because the theme itself, it's like our steam engine, right?
• 28:06
  video1328054297: Like, this is actually a big deal, and there's gonna be ways to participate in it.
• 28:10
  video1328054297: You just have to find those that aren't completely discounting the future Brock, awesome conversation.
• 28:17
  video1328054297: I would love to keep talking more about...
• 28:19
  video1328054297: Have you back on talking about the infrastructure, 'cause you said maybe it's boring.
• 28:24
  video1328054297: I don't think so, especially now.
• 28:25
  video1328054297: I think that infrastructure of the AI, you know, rollout is so...
• 28:32
  video1328054297: Just like on the energy side.
• 28:33
  video1328054297: Once the energy infrastructure, is it able to handle these data centers?
• 28:37
  video1328054297: Let's say, what does that look like?
• 28:39
  video1328054297: To me, I don't know.
• 28:41
  video1328054297: I think you're wrong.
• 28:41
  video1328054297: I think infrastructure is very, very exciting.
• 28:45
  video1328054297: I'll tell my kids you said that I'm very exciting.
• 28:48
  video1328054297: Awesome.
• 28:48
  video1328054297: Yes.
• 28:49
  video1328054297: Well, my son thinks I'm just a YouTuber, so...
• 28:55
  video1328054297: Awesome.
• 28:56
  video1328054297: Awesome.
• 28:56
  video1328054297: Brock, so much fun.
• 28:58
  video1328054297: Absolutely.
• 28:58
  video1328054297: Such a fun conversation.
• 29:00
  video1328054297: Covered a lot.
• 29:01
  video1328054297: I love the insight you brought about senior housing, AI, wrapping it all up into infrastructure, and what it all means for investment portfolios.
• 29:11
  video1328054297: Very insightful.
• 29:12
  video1328054297: It's been an honor.
• 29:13
  video1328054297: Where can our audience get more information about BNY Investments?
• 29:19
  video1328054297: Yeah, so our website is a terrific source.
• 29:22
  video1328054297: It'll have information on the various funds in- including funds that, uh, would be exposed to infrastructure.
• 29:29
  video1328054297: Awesome.
• 29:30
  video1328054297: Thank you, Brock.
• 29:31
  video1328054297: Thank you everyone for listening you can watch all of our other episodes on YouTube and Spotify also, be sure to like and subscribe to those channels, and give us a follow on LinkedIn.
• 29:40
  video1328054297: Thank you very much, and have a great rest of your week.