Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Your Questions Answered: Pensions, Capital Gains Tax and More
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
- 0:19Speaker 2: Welcome to Maren Talks Your Money, the personal finance edition
- 0:21Speaker 2: of Maren Talks Money. In these bonus podcasts, we talk
- 0:24Speaker 2: about the best reategues making the most of your money.
- 0:26Speaker 2: I'm Maren Zums at Web and with the Senior boardroom.
- 0:29Speaker 1: Money just sold off for John step back Guy John Hilm.
- 0:38Speaker 1: Now John, we are lucky.
- 0:39Speaker 2: We get lots of comments and lots of questions coming
- 0:41Speaker 2: into the show. There's all sorts of things that people
- 0:43Speaker 2: want to know more about, and things that we haven't
- 0:45Speaker 2: address they want us to address, and things we have addressed.
- 0:47Speaker 1: That they think we've got wrong. Perfectly reasonable. We're not
- 0:50Speaker 1: experts on everything.
- 0:51Speaker 2: So this week what we're going to do is going
- 0:52Speaker 2: to delve into this mailbox a little bit and address
- 0:55Speaker 2: some of the comments and the questions that we've been getting. Now,
- 0:58Speaker 2: the first one, I am really really interesting because we
- 1:01Speaker 2: talk about this all the time. It's about flows. What
- 1:03Speaker 2: makes market moves. Everyone goes about valuations, their valuations that
- 1:06Speaker 2: get blah blah it flows how much money is coming,
- 1:09Speaker 2: how much money is going out. That's what makes the
- 1:11Speaker 2: market go up or down. Supply and demand, Hello, so
- 1:14Speaker 2: this one is about this. Hi there, long term listener,
- 1:16Speaker 2: appreciate the regular podcast, Thanks very much. And his question
- 1:20Speaker 2: is something he says he's been wondering about for ages.
- 1:22Speaker 2: Have capital flows into the markets over the last six
- 1:25Speaker 2: years or so changed, and if so, how has that
- 1:28Speaker 2: affected things? And he talks about himself as an example
- 1:30Speaker 2: things in his mid thirties, didn't know anything about investing
- 1:33Speaker 2: and never thought about investing pre pandemic. But during that
- 1:36Speaker 2: that sort of insane lockdown period when he had loads
- 1:39Speaker 2: of time and nothing to do, suddenly he's paying attention,
- 1:41Speaker 2: looking at crypto, looking at all the meme socks. And
- 1:44Speaker 2: now he has an equity portfolio that he manages through
- 1:46Speaker 2: a sort of super low cost online broke up, so
- 1:49Speaker 2: it's an app he can almost zero cost trades anytimes.
- 1:52Speaker 2: He liked twenty four seven totally easy in a way
- 1:55Speaker 2: that it absolutely was not.
- 1:58Speaker 1: Even a decade ago.
- 1:59Speaker 2: So does that ease plus there's a widespread awareness social media,
- 2:04Speaker 2: the endless memes, et cetera, that ease of doing it
- 2:07Speaker 2: mean that flows into the market have massively increased, and
- 2:11Speaker 2: that as a result, the market has just gone up
- 2:13Speaker 2: and up and up.
- 2:14Speaker 1: And also did that I would say very clearly is yes.
- 2:17Speaker 3: Absolutely. The most obvious example of this is all the
- 2:20Speaker 3: stuff that happened with the meme stocks and the game stop.
- 2:24Speaker 3: And something actually I found really interesting the other day
- 2:27Speaker 3: is I was speaking to a friend we popped over,
- 2:30Speaker 3: had dinner with them, speaking to his wife, and she
- 2:33Speaker 3: was just fascinated by the Reddit thread and I think
- 2:37Speaker 3: it's called walk Street bets the one started, yeah, and
- 2:41Speaker 3: I mean it's she wasn't a trader, she wasn't particularly
- 2:44Speaker 3: interested in betting and stock, she didn't a robin Hood account,
- 2:47Speaker 3: but she just loved reading the chat on the thread.
- 2:50Speaker 3: And I was just quite surprised because this was clearly
- 2:52Speaker 3: somebody who wasn't, you know, especially engaged in kind of
- 2:55Speaker 3: trading on investment, but it was very aware of all
- 2:58Speaker 3: of the you know, can I.
- 3:01Speaker 1: We have numbers for this as well.
- 3:02Speaker 2: If you look at the share of US household wealth
- 3:04Speaker 2: held in equities as massive as up to nearly sixty percent,
- 3:07Speaker 2: that's more than any other country, and of course the
- 3:09Speaker 2: US is the biggest market that those flows into.
- 3:11Speaker 1: That that's extraordinary.
- 3:12Speaker 2: And then there is am a status saw the other
- 3:15Speaker 2: day on retail share of trading every day in US dogs, right,
- 3:20Speaker 2: that is doubled, doubled in fifteen years. So I've been
- 3:24Speaker 2: thirty five to forty percent of all trading every day
- 3:27Speaker 2: is retail investors, ordinary people buying and selling.
- 3:30Speaker 1: And that that's new. That's new. And this isn't during.
- 3:33Speaker 2: A time when people are stuck at home, and you know,
- 3:35Speaker 2: it's not a time even when Americans have piles of savings, right,
- 3:37Speaker 2: they've been running down their savings. So is there more
- 3:40Speaker 2: flow retail flow into the market, particularly the US market,
- 3:43Speaker 2: which we went the US market here, into that market,
- 3:46Speaker 2: and is that making a difference. I would say absolutely,
- 3:49Speaker 2: because that retail army is going out and buying every day,
- 3:52Speaker 2: pouring money in. But of course the important thing to
- 3:55Speaker 2: say here is that that can reverse. And in the past,
- 4:00Speaker 2: when we've seen huge retail excitement and relentless retail flows
- 4:03Speaker 2: in the markets, when it has reversed, it's reversed really nastily.
- 4:08Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean, I suppose the other thing is
- 4:10Speaker 3: that some of this stuff is hard to split out
- 4:14Speaker 3: from the riser passive in general, and they can relentless
- 4:20Speaker 3: increase in the amount of money that's just automatically can
- 4:23Speaker 3: stuck into markets in the former kind of like pension
- 4:26Speaker 3: accounts rather than trading accounts. But yeah, definitely much as
- 4:32Speaker 3: a dislike people describing retail as the dumb money.
- 4:37Speaker 1: It isn't the dumb money.
- 4:38Speaker 3: I think it is.
- 4:39Speaker 2: There's lots of evidence that over the last ten years
- 4:40Speaker 2: or so, retail investors have unperformed institutions. And you know,
- 4:44Speaker 2: we've looked at that data before, John, but who was it,
- 4:48Speaker 2: Simon Evan Cook produced all that data showing that, well,
- 4:50Speaker 2: the average fund underperforms, the average active fund underperforms, the
- 4:55Speaker 2: average retail investor is often in the fund that outperforms.
- 5:00Speaker 1: Sorry interrupt you again, I'm doing too much interrupting of
- 5:02Speaker 1: you today. What were you going to say? You don't
- 5:04Speaker 1: like the phrase dumb money, but.
- 5:06Speaker 3: You're quite rightly, No, I mean, I think it's more
- 5:08Speaker 3: just it's it's emblematic of enthusiasm and then kind of
- 5:12Speaker 3: overall enthusiasm. So it's not the individual investors are daft.
- 5:17Speaker 3: It's just that this is the hot area and so
- 5:20Speaker 3: people are attracted to it, and the more to that
- 5:23Speaker 3: you see, the more it's kind of like, well, okay,
- 5:26Speaker 3: but what happens when the enthusiasm runs It's felt like
- 5:30Speaker 3: that for a while to.
- 5:31Speaker 2: Be okay anyway, So thank you very much Daniel for
- 5:34Speaker 2: that question. And at the end of his question he says,
- 5:36Speaker 2: is this nonsense just a thought, Daniel, It's not nonsense.
- 5:39Speaker 2: You're absolutely right. We think you're absolutely right. Anyway, Okay,
- 5:43Speaker 2: next one. See he's the smart money exactly. There is
- 5:46Speaker 2: no dumb money listening to this podcast. Okay, next one.
- 5:50Speaker 1: Hi John to Marin.
- 5:51Speaker 2: Keep the good work coming. Newsletters and podcasts were all great,
- 5:53Speaker 2: Thanks very much. Everyone is beginning to learn how to
- 5:55Speaker 2: get that question answered right, you know, full flattery upfront
- 5:59Speaker 2: and then somehow floats at the top of the pile. Anyway,
- 6:02Speaker 2: this is from Keith Keith Harrison, thank you for this,
- 6:05Speaker 2: and he is writing it about NEST. We did a
- 6:08Speaker 2: whole little pod talking about NEST, this big pension provider
- 6:11Speaker 2: for auto enrollment recently, and I'm actually just going to
- 6:15Speaker 2: read his out because we have anything to add to it.
- 6:17Speaker 1: Here's the expert here.
- 6:18Speaker 2: As the financial advisor, I come across NEST quite frequently.
- 6:22Speaker 2: And an interesting aspect of NEST is that you can't
- 6:26Speaker 2: partially transfer your money out or transfer out if you're
- 6:29Speaker 2: an active member of the scheme. So if the allocation
- 6:32Speaker 2: to private assets, which is what John, you and I
- 6:34Speaker 2: were talking about the other day, in fact, that nest
- 6:36Speaker 2: is allocating this huge tack of money, and I think
- 6:38Speaker 2: we rather think maybe too much money to private assets
- 6:41Speaker 2: at quite a strange time to do that. Anyway, if
- 6:43Speaker 2: it's not your taste, it is very difficult to get out.
- 6:48Speaker 2: Your options are fairly limited. So he has given three
- 6:50Speaker 2: options for people who listened perhaps to the part we
- 6:53Speaker 2: did the other day, and well, god, it's not quite
- 6:55Speaker 2: what I want. The first one is speak to your
- 6:57Speaker 2: employer see if they will pay into an old alternative scheme.
- 7:01Speaker 2: It's unlikely, not very many people will. It's loads of
- 7:03Speaker 2: payroll admin if everyone has their own scheme, and it's
- 7:06Speaker 2: difficult if you are sort of demonstrating employer governance, etc.
- 7:10Speaker 2: So ask but unlikely. Number two, opt out, transfer out completely,
- 7:16Speaker 2: opt back in, do this on repeat every so often.
- 7:20Speaker 2: Lots of asshole and you may miss some employer contributions
- 7:23Speaker 2: along the way, you have time out of the market, etc.
- 7:25Speaker 2: So that is one possible way of doing it, but
- 7:27Speaker 2: it's not very practical and it's not really that advisable.
- 7:31Speaker 2: Number three, keep your contributions to the absolute max employer
- 7:35Speaker 2: the employer will match, and anything extra you have, do
- 7:38Speaker 2: not do it through your employer, do it into a
- 7:40Speaker 2: SIP or use an alternative provider. So you know, those
- 7:43Speaker 2: are I think those are really useful points, although actually
- 7:46Speaker 2: in the end the answer is are not much you
- 7:48Speaker 2: can do about.
- 7:48Speaker 1: This, and lots of way.
- 7:50Speaker 2: He says, NEST is a soft target for the government
- 7:52Speaker 2: due to the terms imposed on it, and lots of
- 7:54Speaker 2: people will have literally no practical choice to accept it.
- 7:57Speaker 2: So that was a really interesting email. But once we
- 7:59Speaker 2: get to the end, there's not much you can do.
- 8:03Speaker 3: But I suppose it's useful to at least be aware,
- 8:07Speaker 3: and I guess that's all you can say, because the
- 8:09Speaker 3: problem is that obviously we ought to enrollment. You know,
- 8:12Speaker 3: if you give it up, then you're losing out on
- 8:15Speaker 3: the employed contribution and there's almost nothing that's going to
- 8:18Speaker 3: be worth that, you know, because when most cases you're
- 8:21Speaker 3: already doubling the amount of money you put in. So
- 8:24Speaker 3: but you know, it's good to at least be be
- 8:28Speaker 3: aware and maybe also have a look at what are
- 8:30Speaker 3: the other options, because it's not there's not a single
- 8:33Speaker 3: NEST fund at the end of the day, they do
- 8:35Speaker 3: have a couple of options, and some of them are
- 8:37Speaker 3: more equity heavy than the others. Oh, yes, it was
- 8:40Speaker 3: quite tricky you find out exactly what was in them.
- 8:42Speaker 3: But anyway, that's.
- 8:43Speaker 2: Another Anyway, we're not going into a nest rabbit hole
- 8:46Speaker 2: again today.
- 8:47Speaker 1: Done with that. This one I think is really Actually
- 9:01Speaker 1: a few years ago I moved.
- 9:02Speaker 2: Around half far assets to a discretionary fund manager, and
- 9:05Speaker 2: a rising market has led to some nice gains. However,
- 9:08Speaker 2: the constant erosion of the capital gains tax allowance, fiddling
- 9:12Speaker 2: with the rates, etc. Now it means that each year
- 9:14Speaker 2: I am presented with a tally of crystallized gains upon
- 9:17Speaker 2: which I must play CGT and part of my portfolio,
- 9:20Speaker 2: I imagine myself. I can of course decide when or
- 9:23Speaker 2: whether to crystalize gains, and can choose to defer CGT
- 9:26Speaker 2: indefinitely if I wish. Whilst having gains to tax is
- 9:29Speaker 2: a nice problem to have, I wonder Tom address the
- 9:32Speaker 2: rosen cons of discretionary wealth management, whether any advantages to
- 9:35Speaker 2: paying as you go CGT. Now this is really interesting
- 9:40Speaker 2: because obviously, if you are managing your own money, you
- 9:42Speaker 2: can decide to yourself what you sell when you sell
- 9:44Speaker 2: at how much.
- 9:44Speaker 1: Capital gains you pay.
- 9:45Speaker 2: And then when he's talking about discretionary fund managers, he
- 9:49Speaker 2: is talking the one he uses is a passive strategy.
- 9:52Speaker 2: It's the same for everybody. You choose between a risk level,
- 9:55Speaker 2: and then everyone's money is managed in exactly the same way.
- 9:58Speaker 2: So the CGT he comes when it comes. You know,
- 10:01Speaker 2: you make the capital gains when you make the capital gains,
- 10:04Speaker 2: And that's different to using a much more individually based
- 10:07Speaker 2: discretionary fund manager, which you might have viewed maybe a
- 10:10Speaker 2: lot more money, or maybe you've.
- 10:11Speaker 1: Had a different approach, or you're prepared for the higher fees.
- 10:13Speaker 2: Whatever it is where you have one guy or woman
- 10:15Speaker 2: looking after your money in particular, and your portfolio may
- 10:19Speaker 2: be different to everybody else's, and you can specify whether
- 10:22Speaker 2: it is that you want to make capital gains or
- 10:24Speaker 2: not in any particular year. Obviously that you can't avoid
- 10:27Speaker 2: making capital gains all in, but you have more discretion
- 10:30Speaker 2: over it if you use an old fashion fund wealth
- 10:33Speaker 2: manager than you might have used one of the more
- 10:35Speaker 2: modern ones, where you're cost to lower because your portfolio
- 10:37Speaker 2: is more generic. So the question there is quite interesting
- 10:41Speaker 2: because it's about, well, what if I'm going to use
- 10:42Speaker 2: a wealth manager.
- 10:43Speaker 1: What kind of wealth manager should I use? Which is
- 10:45Speaker 1: something that we talk.
- 10:46Speaker 2: About a lot on the podcast, and the kind that
- 10:50Speaker 2: he is talking about that will be much cheaper. The
- 10:52Speaker 2: fees will probably be much lower because your portfolio is
- 10:55Speaker 2: not being managed individually. But you do have this problem
- 10:59Speaker 2: now I use this type. I use both types actually,
- 11:02Speaker 2: and if you use the ones as I say that
- 11:04Speaker 2: had these generic portfolios, that seems to be the place
- 11:07Speaker 2: to use for your SIP and your iSER rappers.
- 11:10Speaker 1: Because then the problem doesn't.
- 11:11Speaker 2: Rat makes sense any As he says, it's a good
- 11:16Speaker 2: problem to have, but it's an increasingly difficult problem because
- 11:18Speaker 2: the CGT allowances now so very low.
- 11:22Speaker 3: I suppose people didn't think about CGT a lot because
- 11:26Speaker 3: the actual allowance of self used to basically be the
- 11:29Speaker 3: same as the Hazer allowance. But now the kind of
- 11:32Speaker 3: tax free amount you can profit is just three grand.
- 11:35Speaker 3: And the honest truth is that for most people with
- 11:38Speaker 3: any decent amount of investment outside of the rapper, that
- 11:43Speaker 3: is going to become an issue. And it's very galling
- 11:46Speaker 3: to have to pay, you know, kind of like you know,
- 11:49Speaker 3: a huge chunk of of your hard dayned investment gains
- 11:53Speaker 3: over the puplic three.
- 11:54Speaker 2: And it's also worth saying that that those gains, given
- 11:57Speaker 2: that the allowance is so low, it will be the
- 11:59Speaker 2: case a lot of what you are being taxed on
- 12:01Speaker 2: is purely inflation. So you know, make you ten percent gain,
- 12:05Speaker 2: and inflation has been five percent, you've only made five percent,
- 12:07Speaker 2: but your tax on the entire gain, So that is
- 12:10Speaker 2: a genuine wealth tax.
- 12:12Speaker 1: You are being taxed on the real.
- 12:13Speaker 2: On the nominal value, not the real value of your investment,
- 12:17Speaker 2: so that that capital gains is a big wealth tax.
- 12:19Speaker 1: I can see where it's so distressing for people to
- 12:21Speaker 1: see it come through like that.
- 12:23Speaker 2: But then of course there is the argument that is
- 12:26Speaker 2: better to pay your capital gains as they come, because
- 12:29Speaker 2: you then run into this really knotty problem later in
- 12:33Speaker 2: life if you do not pay capital gains on a
- 12:36Speaker 2: pay as you go basis, where you get you know,
- 12:38Speaker 2: maybe into your seventies, you have a massive potential capital
- 12:43Speaker 2: gains liability and you find yourself unable to sell anything
- 12:47Speaker 2: because you cannot bring yourself to sell a large chunk
- 12:50Speaker 2: of assets and pay capital gain tax on it when
- 12:53Speaker 2: you know that you will shortly or your heirs will
- 12:57Speaker 2: shortly be paying inheritance tax on thosesets. So you find
- 13:01Speaker 2: a lot of people running into problems. And you may say, again,
- 13:04Speaker 2: these are nice problems to have, but there are problems
- 13:06Speaker 2: nonetheless where you find it too difficult to sell. And
- 13:10Speaker 2: of course on death, the capital gains tax liability disappears
- 13:14Speaker 2: and effectively replaced with the IHT liability. If you sell
- 13:17Speaker 2: before you end up paying twice. So I totally see
- 13:19Speaker 2: why people get very stressed about that.
- 13:22Speaker 1: So maybe it's better.
- 13:23Speaker 2: Not to run up these huge paper gains anyway.
- 13:30Speaker 3: Don't bother. I mean this sort of like takes us
- 13:32Speaker 3: back to the problem that we often talk about, which
- 13:35Speaker 3: is the behavioral distortions that the existence of the tax
- 13:39Speaker 3: and the first place, which is one thing, but the
- 13:41Speaker 3: fact that it does constantly change, because not only do
- 13:43Speaker 3: you have to sit down and think, well, am I
- 13:46Speaker 3: going to take this gain now because I might not
- 13:48Speaker 3: want it in the future when I've got even more
- 13:50Speaker 3: profit the bank hopefully, but there's also the question of, well,
- 13:55Speaker 3: they've reduced the capital gains tax allowance. There's been quartered
- 13:58Speaker 3: in a very short space of time, so what arms
- 14:01Speaker 3: if they just get DYA altogether? And so you have
- 14:04Speaker 3: to sort of take an account the direction of taxation
- 14:08Speaker 3: policy as well.
- 14:09Speaker 2: There's always a chance, I mean, hit me out right,
- 14:11Speaker 2: There's always a chance that at some point we have
- 14:14Speaker 2: an administration that vaguely comes to its sensors and understands
- 14:18Speaker 2: that wealth creation is not in some way evil and
- 14:21Speaker 2: stops taxing you on inflation and stops taxing you only
- 14:24Speaker 2: on genuine gains that you know, wealth. Wealth taxes across
- 14:27Speaker 2: the board disappear. And it's so important, doesn't it, to
- 14:29Speaker 2: remember that the UK is basically the home of wealth taxes.
- 14:32Speaker 1: We have more than anybody else.
- 14:33Speaker 2: We don't call them wealth taxes, but boy, boy, do
- 14:35Speaker 2: we have wealth taxes?
- 14:37Speaker 1: For fun? Should we name them? Should we name them
- 14:39Speaker 1: just for fun? Were here?
- 14:40Speaker 3: HD? We should HD?
- 14:42Speaker 2: Capital gains, stam duty on your house, stamp duty on
- 14:46Speaker 2: your e trading constantly endless damn duty. Luxury car tax
- 14:52Speaker 2: you know by an expensive car, not even expensive car
- 14:55Speaker 2: these days, extra passenger tax when you fly business class,
- 14:58Speaker 2: premium agonomy, whatever.
- 15:01Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I think that's pretty a pretty good
- 15:03Speaker 3: chunk of them. And I think again, the fact that
- 15:07Speaker 3: they're not called wealth taxes doesn't mean then they haven't
- 15:10Speaker 3: wealth taxes. I mean, there's certain conditions where they can
- 15:14Speaker 3: have additional You could argue that the additional council tax
- 15:19Speaker 3: is also going to be a wealth tax as well.
- 15:21Speaker 1: Definitely the mansion tax that's coming.
- 15:23Speaker 3: Yes, the mansion tax. Yeah, there's lots of stuff already.
- 15:26Speaker 1: Anyway, I'm sorry, Douglas. We haven't really helped there.
- 15:28Speaker 2: All we can say is a naughty problem, lady problem,
- 15:34Speaker 2: pay somebody else more.
- 15:36Speaker 3: It's that crystal ball element combined with you know, the
- 15:40Speaker 3: the various assumptions you would have to make about the
- 15:44Speaker 3: maths and the spreadsheets and working out right, Well, if
- 15:46Speaker 3: I make this return them a better crystallizing this year,
- 15:49Speaker 3: but what if someone gets in in twenty twenty nine
- 15:52Speaker 3: and ditches all of these you know rules, or what
- 15:55Speaker 3: if somebody gets in in twenty twenty nine and means
- 15:57Speaker 3: that you you know, you've got zero capital game tax exemption,
- 16:01Speaker 3: so it's just two. Yeah, there's too many variables, and
- 16:09Speaker 3: I think it would be ideal if governments thought about
- 16:13Speaker 3: that sort of thing whenever they were passing these rules.
- 16:17Speaker 3: There's some there's a premium to keeping things in place
- 16:21Speaker 3: for the long term, even if they're bad.
- 16:23Speaker 2: No John change with the change of sakes. It's it's
- 16:25Speaker 2: sake to change that one. Something must be done, Something
- 16:29Speaker 2: must be done.
- 16:29Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, moving on, maybe perfectly clear.
- 16:31Speaker 1: Moving on right.
- 16:34Speaker 2: This one is a very long conversation, but it's also
- 16:36Speaker 2: a conversation we have had before. So I can direct
- 16:39Speaker 2: you to listen to previous podcasts and we'll put a
- 16:41Speaker 2: link in the genes for a podcast in which we
- 16:42Speaker 2: have discussed this. But nonetheless, dear Marin very much enjoy
- 16:46Speaker 2: your excellent podcast.
- 16:47Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Robert and I have a.
- 16:49Speaker 2: Question that maybe have interested to discuss, must discuss navy,
- 16:52Speaker 2: which fund and which market to invest in? What is
- 16:54Speaker 2: the actual data, say, from the last forty years of
- 16:57Speaker 2: picking a mixed bag of funds and ATF's investment trus
- 16:59Speaker 2: versus is putting it all into a low cost Vanguard
- 17:02Speaker 2: world tracker or combination of passive trackers?
- 17:05Speaker 1: What is best?
- 17:05Speaker 2: Now we've talked about this a lot on the basis
- 17:07Speaker 2: that a combination of passive trackers, you are making active decisions,
- 17:12Speaker 2: so many active decisions. We can't compare that with a
- 17:14Speaker 2: random group of funds and investment trust because you've made
- 17:16Speaker 2: this basically the same amount of active decisions, So don't know.
- 17:20Speaker 1: It depends what you shows now on the matter.
- 17:22Speaker 2: Of would it be better to choose one low cost
- 17:25Speaker 2: Vanguard World tracker and have held it over the last ten, fifteen,
- 17:29Speaker 2: twenty thirty years and nothing else at all? Given the
- 17:32Speaker 2: outperformance of the US market and it's waiting in that
- 17:36Speaker 2: tracker over the last Where are we now twenty years
- 17:38Speaker 2: or so? Probably yes, But then again, what basket of
- 17:44Speaker 2: funds and ETFs are you going to track it against?
- 17:48Speaker 2: It's an impossible question. Has passive beaten average active over.
- 17:54Speaker 1: The last decade two decades? Yeah? Probably Red John, Yeah.
- 17:58Speaker 3: I mean we dead the figures on this the last
- 18:00Speaker 3: time it came up, and over forty years it was
- 18:03Speaker 3: close on it was more than nine percent annual returned
- 18:05Speaker 3: a year for the one hundred percent equities, but a
- 18:08Speaker 3: global world tracker, which is a pretty damn geaked return.
- 18:14Speaker 3: And I think we worked to the Barksher Hathaway had
- 18:17Speaker 3: done about twice that, and Scottish Mortgage had done something similar.
- 18:22Speaker 3: But the question was you would have had no qualms
- 18:25Speaker 3: about putting a hundred percent of your equity portfolio into
- 18:27Speaker 3: a global tracker, because that's just a passive thing. You
- 18:31Speaker 3: would have probably committed it to one buffet in the
- 18:33Speaker 3: late eighties because by then he had a great you know,
- 18:36Speaker 3: reputation even then. But there is no way that you
- 18:39Speaker 3: would have put one hundred percent of your fund into
- 18:41Speaker 3: an unproven prodracy product like Scottish mortgage at that point,
- 18:45Speaker 3: and you certainly wouldn't have held onto it for probably
- 18:47Speaker 3: the first you know, fifteen years of the two to
- 18:50Speaker 3: get going. So it's just again there's an element of
- 18:53Speaker 3: psychology to it. By a ten percent for near enough
- 18:57Speaker 3: ten percent a year for the purely passive fund, really
- 19:00Speaker 3: good and you'd be very happy with that. It's on John,
- 19:03Speaker 3: but past performance, so, I.
- 19:08Speaker 2: Mean, I think we are going to speak for John here,
- 19:10Speaker 2: but I think we both slightly failed. That the overrepresentation
- 19:14Speaker 2: of the U S enhansive attack inside those global indicies
- 19:17Speaker 2: now is a worry. But yeah, you're you're right, and
- 19:20Speaker 2: that that would probably have been better over the last
- 19:22Speaker 2: couple of decades. But then, of course, who knows what
- 19:25Speaker 2: funds and ETFs you.
- 19:26Speaker 1: Might have picked.
- 19:27Speaker 2: Maybe you'd have picked maybe you would have instead of
- 19:31Speaker 2: the locals Fang God World, you would have chosen only
- 19:33Speaker 2: US equity passive funds in which cause you've done even better. Right,
- 19:38Speaker 2: then we go, there's another non answer for you, for you,
- 19:40Speaker 2: another non answer for you.
- 19:42Speaker 1: I think we all you make your choices with these ones.
- 19:45Speaker 3: I mean, I think that's an interesting question. A bastly
- 19:48Speaker 3: I would default to investing at all, and that kind
- 19:51Speaker 3: of passive way is better than not investing, I think
- 19:57Speaker 3: law and it's my view, if you have the capacity,
- 20:02Speaker 3: and you have the interest, then putting in at least
- 20:05Speaker 3: some sort of overlay of your own on top of
- 20:09Speaker 3: that is actually a good thing to do.
- 20:12Speaker 1: That's a active barbell strategy.
- 20:14Speaker 3: Yeah, basically just something too. And also you know, if
- 20:17Speaker 3: you're obviously if you're engaging me invest in, then you'll
- 20:20Speaker 3: probably find it quite an interesting thing to do.
- 20:22Speaker 1: Anyway.
- 20:23Speaker 3: But I guess I wouldn't want to put anyone off
- 20:26Speaker 3: if all they want to do is look like, how
- 20:28Speaker 3: can I get this done? And if they if you
- 20:31Speaker 3: just want to get it done, then there are much
- 20:34Speaker 3: worse things to do than just stick it in a
- 20:36Speaker 3: passive tracker.
- 20:36Speaker 2: Okay, excellent, Right, I think that's enough questions and answers
- 20:39Speaker 2: for today. I thank you all very much for sending them,
- 20:42Speaker 2: and we really appreciate it because you make us think
- 20:44Speaker 2: as well, and that's extremely good for us, isn't it.
- 20:46Speaker 1: Jim, It's very good.
- 20:49Speaker 3: We hate it, but it's very good.
- 20:55Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week's Marrying Dogs. Your money.
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