Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Graham Platner Won His Primary… But Can He Beat Susan Collins? + Voters Are Future Focused & Demanding Change

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Chuck’s Commentary - Graham Platner Won His Primary… But Can He Beat Susan Collins? + Voters Are Future Focused & Demanding Change · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: vary and rates may vary. Hello there, Happy Wednesday, and
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. Let me
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: give you a quick rundown. I'm gonna have a little
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: bit of post primary analysis for you. The news and
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  Speaker 1: Maine good news for Graham Plattner. The question is is
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  Speaker 1: that good news for the Democratic Party's chances for winning
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  Speaker 1: control of the Senate. Is that good news for Susan Collins.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to dig into all of that and have
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  Speaker 1: you look at it both by the numbers, and then,
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  Speaker 1: of course there's always the subjective matter of things. But
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  Speaker 1: Maine wasn't the only place on the ballot. We had
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  Speaker 1: South Carolina and Nevada as well. Have a little bit
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  Speaker 1: on that, but I also want to share. I'm going
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  Speaker 1: to share a little bit of what I think we've
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  Speaker 1: learned so far. We're just about it the halfway point
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  Speaker 1: of primary season, and you know, by the end of
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  Speaker 1: the month will probably be more than halfway down after
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  Speaker 1: New York votes and stuff.
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  Speaker 2: So we are.
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  Speaker 1: Starting to see some things that I think are painting
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  Speaker 1: the picture for what this election cycle.
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  Speaker 2: Is going to be about. So I want to get
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  Speaker 2: to that.
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  Speaker 1: It's also Wednesday, which means I have a new top
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  Speaker 1: five list, and it's very timely.
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  Speaker 2: It is.
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  Speaker 1: An updated, my updated top five list of Senate seats
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  Speaker 1: most likely to flip. I have a new number, two,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: new number three, you name it. Four of the five
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  Speaker 1: or Republican held seats, one is a Democratic health seat
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  Speaker 1: and it is not Georgia.
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  Speaker 2: And I will leave that there.
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  Speaker 1: And finally, some questions and a little commentary about the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: situation of the quarterback from Texas Tech who was credibly
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: accused of gambling sort of actually owned up to it
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: and is somehow going to be eligible to play college
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: football next season, eligible.
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  Speaker 2: To be in the college football playoff?
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  Speaker 1: Is that is the Big Twelve, Texas Tech in particular,
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  Speaker 1: in the Big Twelve making a huge mistake. I think
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  Speaker 1: I think you know where I sit on that story.
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  Speaker 2: But let me.
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  Speaker 1: Begin with a quick reaction from the primaries last night.
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  Speaker 2: Look, the big I think the big.
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  Speaker 1: Storyline of the night was Graham Platner. There was no
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  Speaker 1: mystery about whether he was going to win his primary.
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  Speaker 1: We knew it was going to win his primary. The
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  Speaker 1: question is with a zombie candidate with a well known
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: last night, with a well known name, Janet Mills, the
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  Speaker 1: sitting governor still on the ballot, a fact that she
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  Speaker 1: herself reminded reporters about a week before the primary.
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  Speaker 2: Was the case that if.
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  Speaker 1: There were, if there were growing numbers of Democrats concerned
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  Speaker 1: about Graham Plattner's candidacy for the United States Senate, they
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  Speaker 1: still had an opportunity to express concern by showing up
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  Speaker 1: voting and not voting for Platner. Well, Platner ended up
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  Speaker 1: with seventy three percent of the vote. There were two
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  Speaker 1: other candidates on the ballot, one that was an active
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: candidate and the other being Janet Mills, and he is
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  Speaker 1: comfortably cleared seventy percent. And you know, I think it's
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  Speaker 1: I gave you this sort of baw than I was
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  Speaker 1: going through, and I admittedly said, I said, you know, look,
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  Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty five percent is a yellow flag, and
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  Speaker 1: Janet Mills is sitting at nineteen twenty. So yes, it's
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  Speaker 1: a yellow flag, but it is not a five alarm fire.
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  Speaker 1: Had he been held to, you know, under sixty five,
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  Speaker 1: had Mills gotten somewhere north of thirty or pretty close
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  Speaker 1: to thirty, or the combined vote between Mills and the
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  Speaker 1: third candidate, then I think you would have heard increased
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: chatter about replacing him, questions about whether that none of
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: that happens. Now. I think this is a strong sort
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  Speaker 1: of affirmation of his candidacy by the main Democrats who
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: chose to show up and vote.
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  Speaker 2: And that matters a lot here.
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  Speaker 1: Because at this point, if there's you know, if you
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  Speaker 1: don't have essentially your own parties consent to do the switch.
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  Speaker 1: You risk if you do push it, you know, splitting
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  Speaker 1: the party intwo and making whatever chances you'd thought you
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  Speaker 1: did have an unseating Susan Collins that much harder. I
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  Speaker 1: think the real question is with with platiners is a
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  Speaker 1: couple of things. One is there more stuff and of
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  Speaker 1: what kind of nature is it? Is it more rhetoric
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  Speaker 1: or is it physical? Is it something more physical in nature?
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  Speaker 1: Right that I think is you know, I think one
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: hits a lot harder than the other. You know, before
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Trump came along, right pre Access Hollywood tape. You know,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: we we certainly knew that there was a higher tolerance
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: for this stuff growing through the years, but there was
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  Speaker 1: always a tipping point when we didn't receive that tipping
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  Speaker 1: point right after Access Hollywood. And the question is what,
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  Speaker 1: you know, how numb are folks to this? Are they
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  Speaker 1: numb to the character questions? Or is character a luxury
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  Speaker 1: item for more and more primary voters? And I do
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  Speaker 1: think with some base primary voters, character is a luxury
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  Speaker 1: item that ultimately the north star of doing true disruptive change,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: whether it's on the right or on the left, and
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: having frankly fearless advocates to do it regardless of their backgrounds.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Especially if they show the guts they're willing to take
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: on sacred cows that conventional politicians weren't willing to do,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: say things that conventional politicians weren't willing to say. Well,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: then they're more likely to overlook character issues because they're
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: looking you know, what they're looking for is a is
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: a pugilistic stand in, right, And that's the thing with
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  Speaker 1: angry voting electorates is that when you're you know, this
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: is a case where if this were a peace and
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: prosperity election, Grant Platner would be in much deeper trouble, right,
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  Speaker 1: because then you would need and you.
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  Speaker 2: Just have a different look.
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  Speaker 1: It's hard to explain, you know, unless you guys have
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: some good memory of it, but just a different mindset.
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  Speaker 1: You know, if you're if if it's a peace and
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  Speaker 1: prosperity election and you're really just targeting a race because
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  Speaker 1: the numbers look good for you, then you then you
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  Speaker 1: need to have the strongest possible generic democrat you can have.
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  Speaker 2: This is an.
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  Speaker 1: Electorate that may be very angry, This is electorate that
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  Speaker 1: is fed up, This is an electorate. And then you
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  Speaker 1: also have a base of a Democratic Party that is
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  Speaker 1: sort of tired of losing right, tired of capitulating to
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the to the center, tired of capitulating to the establishment.
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  Speaker 1: And I think there's some evidence of that with this
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  Speaker 1: pretty strong primary performance by Platner's that there's.
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  Speaker 2: Something to that.
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  Speaker 1: In this sort of response of actual primary voters voting
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  Speaker 1: the way they did. So I think the bigger question
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  Speaker 1: is is what would a Platner Senate victory do to
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  Speaker 1: change the branding of the Democratic Party and how much
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  Speaker 1: of it and how impactful would his actual election be
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  Speaker 1: If you can overcome all of this, it change. You know,
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  Speaker 1: It's like how Trump just completely changed the image and
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  Speaker 1: perspective of what kind of candidates could run for office,
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  Speaker 1: what kind of person could serve in certain places and
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  Speaker 1: it and it got Republicans you could say they went
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  Speaker 1: off the deep end with it, but it made them
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  Speaker 1: reimagine what a conventional what a successful candidate might look like.
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  Speaker 1: And if the Democrats essentially believe the same thing, where
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  Speaker 1: does that go?
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  Speaker 2: Is it? You know? Is is.
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  Speaker 1: It expand the aperture of the type of candidates and
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  Speaker 1: there'll be more more folks running for office with or
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: is Charlie Cook likes to call them exotic backgrounds. Or
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  Speaker 1: is this just a unique situation where Donald Trump anger
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: at anger at Democrats and ability to be back Trump,
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  Speaker 1: however you want to look at it, has just got
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  Speaker 1: the elector at certainly the Democratic Party's base voters in
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  Speaker 1: a different mindset. And I think that that's that's the
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  Speaker 1: unknown here. But I I that's the other question. Look,
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  Speaker 1: Graham Platner can win. There's a few things that I
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  Speaker 1: brought up before, and uh and and and I'll bring
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  Speaker 1: up later when I do my top five list. But
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  Speaker 1: Maine has gotten bluer from twenty twenty, the last time
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  Speaker 1: Susan Collins was on the ballot. And there's a specific
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  Speaker 1: reason for it. Maine, a lot of Maine saw an
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  Speaker 1: increase in essentially COVID migration, folks leaving blue cities in
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  Speaker 1: New England and moving to or blue cities of the
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: bluer East Coast and moving north and moving to Maine.
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  Speaker 1: You saw Boston people do that, and et cetera. It
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  Speaker 1: is and you sort of saw some evidence in it
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  Speaker 1: in the Kamala Harris performance in Maine in twenty twenty four.
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  Speaker 1: When you compare the her numbers in twenty twenty four
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  Speaker 1: to Biden's numbers in twenty twenty, they look very similar,
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  Speaker 1: and you think, well, what are you pointing to. Well,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you got to remember Biden. Biden literally got seven million
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  Speaker 1: more votes total. So the fact that the raw vote
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  Speaker 1: here in Maine for Kamala Harris hit the same raw
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  Speaker 1: vote target that Biden did. Actually, you know, this one
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  Speaker 1: of the few places where where you know, she hit
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  Speaker 1: essentially a twenty twenty target. She kind of underperformed twenty
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: twenty in almost across the country, across the board, particularly
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: in non competitive states.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: She kind of.
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  Speaker 1: Just missed the marks that she needed to be at
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: in some of the swing states and then came up
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: short in some of the non competitive states. But the
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: fact that her number, the fact that she actually ended
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: up with more raw vote in Maine than Biden did,
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  Speaker 1: I think is tells you that the floor, the Democratic
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: floor is now higher in Maine than it was in
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. That's important for Platner's ability how many how
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: many people can he afford to lose? And is is
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  Speaker 1: Susan Collins is the anger at her enough that if
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  Speaker 1: you can't bring yourself to vote for Grand Platiner, You're
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  Speaker 1: not going to vote for Collins, You'll skip the race,
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  Speaker 1: and that that is the nightmare for Susan Collins, is
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  Speaker 1: that those that are uncomfortable with Platner aren't persuadable to
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  Speaker 1: Collins that instead, it's a I can't you know, I'm
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: going to skip the race, right. It's why one of
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: our guests on our election night live stream, Jacob Rubashkin,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: brought up.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: What he thought was the.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Better parallel to compare Graham Platner too, and that was
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the sort of the J Jones Jason mieris a g
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: race in Virginia. J Jones had these awful text messages
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: that got released about sort of him dreaming or wishing
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: of political opponents, the death of political opponents, and the
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: pain that that might cause their family if it was
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: due to gun violence. Very awkward thing, very uncomfortable, sort
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of universally condemned, and there was no doubt there was
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: going to be some fall off. Joan's still one still one,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: rather comfortably. But there was a significant number of folks.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Who skipped the race.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: In Virginia and that actually hurt the Republican you know,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: they needed those Essentially, those were Democrats. That said, man,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: that guy's unelectable. I'm not voting for him, but I'm
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: not rewarding the Republicans, So I'm just going to skip
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the race. That's that's the problem that I think makes
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the math still very still quite difficult for Susan Collins.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: But here's something July thirteenth the date to watch. That's
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the last day that you can get off the ballot
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: essentially without an issue, and the party can replace you,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: you know, whether it's a Republican or Democrat, can replace
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: your name on the ballot. A consultant friend of mine
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: reminds me that so far all of the oppo dumped
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: on platners come from the Democratic side. That we haven't
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: seen the Republican a profile yet. And as this person
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: said to me, and you're not going to see it
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: until July fourteenth at the earliest. Again, because July thirteenth
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: is the last day that you could see a withdrawal.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But again I go back to, you know, look, it's
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: certainly a risk, right, it takes a race that I
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: think when you really look at the metrics of Maine,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: it is a generic Democrat can't is I'm not saying
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: a generic Democrat. It can't lose to Susan Collins, but
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: it's weally awfully difficult. Generic Den wins this by six
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: seven eight points, but Platner can afford to lose three
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: or four and still probably pull this off. And so,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: but you know that is the You know that. But
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: what is the nature of the allegations? If more comes,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: what does it look like?
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Again? Is it rhetoric?
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I don't think the rhetoric hits. I just don't think
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: this hits anymore, not just with him, but in general.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I just think that there's a there's an exhaustion, well,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: my goodness, there's always a social media poster or there's
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: always something right, accusations of a physical nature. And again
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I say it very broadly like that, not trying to
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: imply anything. That's to me, the only type of stuff
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: that has a chance to stick at this point.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: But the big.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: News for for Platner is just that it's just that
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: he survived. There look the other stories of the night
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: where you have runoffs. Lindsey Graham avoided a run off
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: after spending ten million dollars. I guess you could say
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: better safe than sorry, But the fact is there, you know,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: in the in the northern you know, in the in
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the in the northwest part of the state. He is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: less popular than he is in other in other parts
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: of the state, but he avoided a runoff. Obviously, being
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: in a runoff would have been highly risky and would
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: have been problematic. The governor's race is going to be
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: in a runoff on the Republican side, and the big
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: news sort of gets a to the larger story I
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: want to get to, which is the two candidates that
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: made the runoff, the lieutenant governor who got Trump's endorsement,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Late Evitt Pamela Evatt, and the Attorney General Alan Wilson,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: who's the son of Congressman Joe Wilson of Uli Fame
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: back in the day, and that will you know that
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: run off, By the way.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: In two weeks.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: It's a quick turnaround. In South Carolina, they don't mess around.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: It's literally the opposite of the state of Texas, which
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: had two months between the primary and the runoff. But
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: what's notable about the cuminatorial runoff is who didn't even
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: make the runoff, and that was not one but two
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: sitting members of Congress who were running Nancy Mays and
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Ralph Norman, and I think Nancy Mays may had a
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: finishing fifth at the when all this said and none.
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• 19:34
  Speaker 1: am a customer. It gets to sort of a larger
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: sort of what my column is about this week, and
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: about trying to explain why members of Congress are struggling
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: so much this cycle. And look, I think you know
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: so far. We're about the halfway point of primary season,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: as I said at the start of this podcast, and
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you know you can start to take inventory. There are
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: some patterns that have developed. Now some of these patterns
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: may disappear come August. Right we have a whole slew
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: of primaries in August that could go in a different
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: direction and sort of dilute whatever pearls of conventional wisdom
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: we're starting to develop at the moment. So these some
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: of these trends could just disappear by Labor Day, but
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: some of them may end up being the story of
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: this election, and so and so far, the biggest story
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: of this campaign is how everybody is running on the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: same simple message change. When I say everybody's running on
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: chained Republicans are running a change, trying to run on change. Democrats,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: incumbent challengers, former office holders, first time candidates. The language
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: has been remarkably similar in these campaigns. I'm going to fight,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: I'm going to disrupt, I'm going to shake things up.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I'm here to take on Washington. I'm taking on the establishment.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take on Trump. I'm going to take
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: on the woke left. I'm you know, going I'm doing this,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: I'm doing that, and.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: It is universal.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: In fact, we don't have anybody I could argue that
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: is campaigning on the status quo. And even forget saying it.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: You also don't even see any candidates running on restoration.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, arguably, Donald Trump's entire two political campaigns have
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: been backward looking make America great again. Right, look backwards
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the Joe Biden game campaign, and frankly, arguably Clinton and
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Harris both in the same we're both restoration campaigns. We
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: can't go backwards, right, We're going to restore what we had,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: But they were restorative campaigns, right. And even look, we've
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: had every single election cycle since twenty fourteen has been
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: a change election cycle where something has flipped. Every single
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: one since twenty fourteen. Twenty fourteen was a change election. Shoot,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth those off off years were change elections. So
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: was sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, nineteen, new name it, all of
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: them change elections. But even in those change environments, somebody
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: was making a restoration argument, right, Like I said, to
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: make America great or restored the soul of America. You know,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the whole point being we've lost something and we've got
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: to get it back, and I am your vehicle to
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: do that. But not right now. Everybody wants new, right.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: We've seen it in Republican primaries and we've seen it
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: in Democratic primaries. Build something new, break something that isn't working,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Reform the system, change the system, challenge the establishment, and
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: everything is a bit more future focused. We're not looking backwards,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: and that's a bigger development. We're not only in a
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: change election environment. We are really future focused. And look
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: with Trump, during the Trump era, it's been very hard
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: to look forward because he's in some ways been constant
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: trying to get us to look backwards. We've had all
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: of our political battles have in some ways been old
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: political battles that have been like re fought again, Like
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: what are we doing? I thought, we can we stop
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: looking backwards. It's time to go forward. And this campaign,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I think in that sense, everybody is trying to look
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: at the same direction. So this seems real and both
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: parties seem to have arrived at the same conclusion about
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: this electorate that voters are frustrated, they're impatient, they want change.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: They can actually see what we're just disagreeing on right
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: now is what does that.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: Change look like? What kind of change? Now?
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: This is the other I think My other big takeaway,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: which is dovetails with the point I was making about
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: South Carolina governor earlier. I think the worst first name
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: to have in politics right now is congressman or congresswoman.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: You know, we saw last week we saw two members
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: of Congress lose governor's races Randy finchtra and Iowa Dusty
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Johnson in South Dakota. And when that happened both, right,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: you know, it was almost like we call those races
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: pretty quickly they both lost outsider populists who were the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: top folk getters. Obviously, I know South Dakota's going to
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: be a runoff, but Johnson couldn't even crack the top
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: two in that. So I wanted to keep digging. And
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear it's been a tough year to be
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: a sitting member of Congress looking for a promotion to governor, Senate,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: or say even state attorney general. Right, ye had Jasmine
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Crockett lost to Tall Rico chip Roy lost in a runoff.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Even Illinois the Democratic Senate primary, Raja Chrystal Morphy loses
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: to Juliana Stratton. In some ways, Illinois might be actually
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: one of the cleanest examples that this isn't simply a
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Republican phenomenon. Christa Morphy had everything that you were supposed
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: to want in a candidate, right, money, name, recognition, years
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: of preparation, an important seat in Congress. Right, he was
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the co chair with Mike Gallagher that important committee on China,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: and he still lost. Right now, Yes, there are some
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: sitting members of Congress who have won promotions in primaries
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: to cycle Ashley Hintson and Iowa Andy barn Kentucky. There's
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: still a handful of House runoffs that could propel Mike
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Collins to the Republican Senate nomination in Georgia Barrymore in Alabama,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: but both could end up losing to ones that are
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: running as outsiders. It's not a wipeout for sitting members
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: of Congress. But these losses are interesting because these weren't
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: fringe candidates, these members of Congress. They didn't run desperation campaigns.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: These were candidates who looked on paper like exactly the
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: kind of politicians who usually do get promoted. So I
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: did look to see if there was any causation or
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: correlation between primary cycles where members of Congress struggled to
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: win Senate and GOV primaries, and whether that translates to
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: telling you something about the midterm cycle overall. So I
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: looked at House members who left Congress to run for Senate, Gov,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: or other statewide office to see that relationship. And there
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: isn't a lot. Two of the weakest promotion years did
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: this century were two thousand and six. In twenty ten
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: years that the House did flip. Six it flipped to
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the Democrats, Tenant flipped to the Republicans. But twenty eighteen
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: was another year that the House flipped right to Democrats.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: But that cycle Democrats did really well. Not just Democrats
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: sitting members of Congress, a majority of them actually got
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: promoted to House or Senate, to Senate or goodnatorial nominees.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: So it wasn't, you know, it wasn't There wasn't some
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: magic predictive indicator here that I was uncovering, But it
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: was enough evidence to keep watching because there does seem
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: to be something happening with the value of congressional experience. Frankly,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: just let's use some comments here, right, Washington experience is
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: not going to carry the same value to voters right
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: now as it once did. It certainly can to be
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: a positive value of Washington experience, screw that, right, So
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: if you're running as somebody whose experiences Washington, you got
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: to offer more than that. You know, voters are going
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: to be very skeptical of experience acquired in DC, so
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: you're going to have to you know indicate well, despite
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: my time in Washington, I did this or things like that,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: and I think that's uh.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: I think that.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: I wonder if that limits the somebody. I'm just very
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: curious what this is going to do to ambition in
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: general with members of Congress, or whether more of them flee.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: We'll see who knows right new leadership, perceptions can change
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: and things like that. There is one place where Democrats
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: and Republicans are behaving, I think slightly differently in their primaries.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Republican voters still seem to be more interested in rewarding confrontation,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: not always with the most conservative candidate or the most
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: pro Trump candidate, but these primaries do seem to favor
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the candidates that come across as most willing to fight
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: challenge somebody. You know, this is why some outsiders were
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: able to beat some insiders, right, whether it's Ken Paxton
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: beating John Cornyn, Zach Lane beating Randy Feinstra, and Republican
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: primary voters they're going to they like the idea of
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: a disruptor. Now we didn't get the full revenge of
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: that in South Carolina, or Lindsey Graham would have been
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: put into a primary, but you could still see in
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: these primary results that you need to be a disruptor
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: to win over a good chunk of these Republican primary voters.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: The Democratic voter voting pattern here is a little harder
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: to pin down. Illinois can complicate some of my easy
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: theories here Texas and Iowa as well. I do think
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: what is fair to conclude with the Democratic primary voters
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: is that they seem to be somewhat more willing to
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: have a conversation about who can emerge from the primary
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: and hold together a winning coalition. So you can sometimes
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: call that an electability conversation. Sometimes it's a consensus conversation. Right,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: tall Rico over Crockett felt like an electability conversation was
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: successfully had in just enough places to help tall Rico.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Certainly that was the campaign that benefited Josh Turrek over
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Zach Walls in Iowa and even California, right, and the
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: governor's race there. You know, after all these high profile
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: candidates stumbled, Javier Bisra increasingly became the candidate that most
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Democratic voters decided they could live with. Right, he was
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: nobody's first choice, but he was everybody and probably not
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: many people's second choice. But he was everybody's third choice,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: it was nobody's last choice. And the fact that they
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: were willing to sort of like enough of this chaos
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: will go with good enough. That is not the way
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: we've been watching Republican primary campaigns play it out. So look,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: we've still got a lot of primaries left. August alone
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: could change a lot of these impressions that have been
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: left so far. But the more you look at this
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: first half of the season, the more convinced I am
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: that we are headed toward another change election. We're going
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: to see either the House, Senate or both flip. That
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: seems more inevitable than ever now. It could be narrow,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: but it's going to happen. Everything is pointing in the
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: direction of change. The messaging has changed left and right right.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: You have Democratic voters are showing up in big numbers.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: That's another issue that's once again. Democratic turnout is on
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: the rise in these primaries, even when they're not super competitive.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Republican turnout has been very stagnant, if not down in
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: some places. So primary turnout.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Does is indicative.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: You know, that is a tea leaf worth reading going
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: into the November cycle, and that was a big deal.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: So you're seeing you're seeing that. So ultimately I definitely
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: think we're headed to this form of a change election.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: The argument isn't over whether change is needed. The argument
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: is over who gets to define it. And then there's
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the question that follows every change election that we've had
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: over the last twelve years, what happens after the election,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Because voters have been sending roughly the same message for
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: more than a decade, now, shake things up, fix what's broken,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: do something different. And the Washington leadership, whether Democratic leadership
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: or Republican leadership, has shown a remarkable ability to absorb
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: these new members elected to be change agents, absorb these
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: new movements elected to shake things up, and eventually recreate
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: many of the same fricking power structures voters thought they
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: were voting against. So in some ways, that's been the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: story of this last decade. Control of Congress has changed,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Movements came and went, insurgents arrived, and yet many of
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the same leadership structures survived. Maybe that's the real question
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: that's going to hang over November twenty twenty six. It's
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: not actually about November, it's about January twenty twenty seven.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Do the people elected on promises of disruption actually disrupt anything,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: or does Washington do what Washington usually does and slowly
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: absorbs these change agents to show them the way we'll
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: see At some point voters are going to get frustrated
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: if the same thing happens again and again. They vote
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: for change, and the leadership structures essentially stifle it. Both
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: party primaries electorates are sending change messages. This cycle is
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: can it be stifled the way it's been? If this
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: happens yet again, we shall say, well. This episode of
• 33:24
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• 35:11
  Speaker 1: use the code podcast to top five top test. It's
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: top five. It's a Wednesday episode, which means it's time
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: for a top five list. Given all of what's happening
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: in Maine, I think it's fair to say, let's figure
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: out what is where things stand for the longest time.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: My list of top five Centate races most likely to flip,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: I've gone off and on right now. I go back
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: and forth between whether all you know, whether Democrats have
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: a better chance of flipping five seats before losing one,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Meaning I have vacillated about how many Democratic seats rise
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: to the vulnerability level that they could actually lose. Well,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: I think there is one that makes the top five list.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: But Maine does fall down the ladder a little bit,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: and I will tell you where I've put it and
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: tell you where what I'm going to be watching. But
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: what's interesting is is basically, if I were doing a
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: top ten list, I would wish I had top fifteen.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: You know, there are more Senate races that are that
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: are that are sneaking into the in play category, thanks
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: to some independent candidates, thanks to some new candidates, thanks
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: some late breaking candidates. This is a you know, we
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: keep portraying the Senate cycle as sort of this you know,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: it's a tough cycle for Democrats.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: To try to win.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: They don't, you know, but there is a Put it
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: this way, the number of Senators that win with less
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: than sixty percent of the vote this cycle is going
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: to be in the double digits, probably closer to fifteen.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: And for me, if you're winning a race with less
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: than sixty percent, then we're going to classify that race
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: as basically semi competitive. Right, if you're under twenty points,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: that's semi competitive, not super competitive, but it's it's in
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: the semi category. And we've got a lot of states
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: that are falling in the semi competitive too. Maybe they're
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: gonna get really competitive, right, whether it's Nebraska, Mississippi, Kansas, Minnesota,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire. Right, they're all they're kind of on the outskirts.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: They're not. None of those that I've talked about are
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: ready to be in top ten, But none of them
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: are kickwalks for the candidates that are leading. And I'll
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: be honest with you, as the year is developed, you know,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: usually the odd number year has sort of a growing
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: well that boy, that center race could get competitive if
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: such as happened, and that race can get competitive, and
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: then that that thing never happens. That's We're in a
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: different place here, right. We're seeing you know, like I said,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: late developments in Kansas, We've got the late developments in Mississippi.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: We continue to see surprising competition in Minnesota. So this
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: is going to be There's an old friend of mine,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: it used to that i'd put in charge of Senate
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: races years ago, and to this day he's still sort
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: of a Senate race junkie, my friend Quin McCord. So, Quinn,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: I know you're listening. I'd love for your hot take
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: on this because I think we're sneaking into a surprisingly
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: deep set of semi competitive center races, and I take
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: it there. You know, it's not filled with swing races
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: just yet, but I feel like the trend is moving
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: in that direction. So that said, let me update you
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: with my top five. Number one has not changed, right.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: The number one seat most likely to change parties is
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: North Carolina remains North Carolina, and I can't imagine it.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Budget.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: In fact, think North Carolina became more likely to flip
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: to the Democrats when Ken Paxton won the runoff against
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: John Cornyn Because North Carolina is a very expensive state.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Roy Cooper's raised a ton of money Michael Wattley, the
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Republican nominee is going to need a lot of extra
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: help from the national But guess what, it might not
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: be a winnable race, and any extra resource is going
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: to go to Republican candidates in Ohio and Texas before
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: they go to a Republican candidate in North Carolina. And
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: because you now have expensive states like Ohio and Texas
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: that the Republicans have to play defense on it. Yes,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: North Carolina's are two. If they had, if you know,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: they weren't dealing with such a massive deficit financially, maybe
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: they would go ahead and import more resources into there.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: But I don't see it, and I think that Cooper
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: gets safer by the day. I doubt any of our
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: friends move this race from lean Democrat to likely. To me,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't you know any rate it's going to be
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: less than ten points. And I think this race is,
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: you know, it's North Carolina. It is tough for a
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Democrat to get more than fifty three percent of the
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: vote statewide. So I will be you know, but but
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: I think Cooper's well on his way to get into
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: that fifty two to fifty three percent, and that's a
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: pretty durable fifty two or fifty three with Whatley sitting
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: somewhere in the forty four to forty seven percent range
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: at best. And that may sound that's competitive, right, but
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: that is not winnable. So number one there, Number two
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: is now Ohio. It's the first time I've put it
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: in the number two slot. Shared Brown's candidacy. We saw
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: that Fox News poll a couple of weeks ago showed
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: an eight point lead for him. We have seen both
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Ohio is put it this way, the more on hop.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Ohio clearly is a very light red state because Ohio
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: is in the battleground you know, thanks to Donald Trump's
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: approval rating falling below right around to forty and below,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: and when you're sitting in the thirty five to forty
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: percent job approval rating, Ohio and Iowa are going to
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: be in the swing state category once you're sitting income
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: a president that on the right is sitting with numbers
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: like that. So Ohio, as far as this election cycle
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: is concerned, is sitting in pure swing status and Shared
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Brown has has has a pretty big advantage here. Look,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: it is still Ohio. It is still you know, not
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: going to be easy. I do think Unlike Michael Wattley
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: North Carolina John Houston, who's the appointed senator, there is
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: not going to get abandoned by the National Party. There's
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: going to be resources for him. And they've run this
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: race against Shared Brown before. Now they've only beaten him
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: once and they had Donald Trump on the ticket. Right
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Without Donald Trump on the ticket, it's a lot harder
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: to beat Jared Brown. And I think he is solidifying
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: himself here at number two to the point where I
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: think number one and number two are in solid shape.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if that changes that much over
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: the next couple of months.
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: We'll see.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: That's why we campaigns play themselves out. But it feels
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: like those two are going to be locked into one
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: and two most likely to flip and Ohio moving in
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: up there, and the likely to flip is as much
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: of it is as much about what Graham Platner to
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: be honest as it is about Shared Brown. Shared Brown
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: is definitely running a good race, is definitely in the
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: driver's seat here. The entire Republican ticket looks very weak
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: in Ohio. Ramaswami looks like it is going to be
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: He might win still, but it's going to be a
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: slog for him. He is struggling in his matchup with
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Amy Acton, and so the more competitive that Remember the
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Wine won in a landslide two in twenty two, and
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: in eighteen he won fairly comfortably, and one year Shared
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Brown was on the ballot and that still happened. So
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: now you're going to have a very much stronger Democratic
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: than anybody anticipated, in addition to Shared to with Shared Brown.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: So I think Ohio is in a very strong position
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: for Democrats.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Would not have.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Did not fully I'll admit I did not fully see
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: that coming. I thought they had gone to the Shared
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: Brown well one too many times. And look, we're still
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: going to find out in November. But it looks like
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: a much He looks like a much stronger nominee than
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: I anticipated, and he's and things are looking good there
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: for the for Team Blue. Number three on the list
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: is a Republican seat, believe it or not, in It's Michigan,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: and it's less about Mike Rogers and more about what's
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: happening in the Democratic primary. Mallory mcmarrow's slow fade, and
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: I call it a slow fade because she's still in
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: double digits. He's still in the high teens, but her
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: slow fade has accrued to the benefit of Abdula Alsa,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: yet the more progressive candidate. We've had this sort of
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: you know, I think you had a very establishment institutionalist
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: candidate and Hailey Stevens. You had super progressive candidate Bernie
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Sanders supported and Abdul lsied. Then he had Mallory mcmarrow
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: sort of playing the outsider role, trying to be a
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: little bit progressive, a little bit institutionalists, right, And for
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: the longest time I thought her ability to split that
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: difference was going to be a strength. It's now turned
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: into a weakness. Right, She's not enough of one thing,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: not enough of the other, and she's sort of I
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: think grabbing, ending up with the worst of both worlds.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: And her numbers have started to fade, and the first
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: voter she has lost of almost looks like they've all
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: gone to Abdul al Saied if he indeed wins this primary.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: And look, we've got a long way to go here.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: This is an August primary, and I think there's a
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: lot more twists and turns. It's gonna be some huge
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: money going up on behalf of Haley Stevens. Stevens APAC
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: is certainly putting together quite an impressive independent expenditure campaign
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: on her behalf. And look, their track record has been
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: good in places like an Illin. I think they're much
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: better in the Midwest, you know. I think they've had
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: a harder time in the East Coast on some of
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the coastal races, but they've they've had better. They've had
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: better success in I think in these great late states
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: and in the Midwest in general, we'll see, right, But
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna so this is nothing's in stone,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: but this is this is not about me saying I'm
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: doing I'll say it is going to be a weak
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: nominee for the Democrats. I certainly think that he makes
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: this race more competitive for Democrats than either McMorrow or
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Stevens would they.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I think he he.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Would attract a lot more Republican money into the state
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: and you would see a much bigger effort. In fact,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: I mean I could see money going from Ohio to
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Michigan on Republicans behalf deciding, well, they may might be
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: to be able to beat Shared Brown, but if they
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: trade Shared Brown for Mike Rogers, that's a net zero
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: at least in their heads, right. So the point is
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: that dulsi Ed's nomination is just simply if like Ken
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Paxton in Texas, is just going to suck up more
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: money on both sides of the aisle, You're going to
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: have more Democratic money have to go into the state
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: to help him out. It's going to be awkward because
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: he's rejected a lot of outsider money. So I'm very
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: curious how that would go and how that would work,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: And then you would have a lot more Republican interest
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: in a more Republican belief that they could win that senatecee.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: They don't want to Republican Senate seed in Michigan's and
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Spencer Abraham in nineteen ninety four. It's been a very
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: long time since Republicans have been able to win a
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Senate see there come close, but a very long time.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: So right now I put that in number three because
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: that's if the polls stay where they are and I
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: do aside as the Democratic nominee, that that would make
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: that's going to make this a barnburner of a race.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Not saying I do Alsiad can't win. I'm just saying
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: he is going to be the Democrat that has the
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: hardest time winning this general election. And so number four
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: on the list is is Iowa, and I put Iowa
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: over Texas. And just to you know, three races, I
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: was choosing one here in Iowa, Maine, in Texas, and
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: of the three, I put Iowa. I think when you
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: look at strength of candidate, I think Turrek feels like
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: he is the the best fitting of the three of
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: their state. The cost of the state, well, okay, both
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Maine and Iowa are affordable. It's an open seat in Iowa,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: it's an open seat in Texas, Okay, very strong gubernatorial
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: ticket candidate in in Iowa less good, but certainly you're
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: going up against incumbent in Texas, and Maine is an
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: open seat. So I think when you put the three together,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: I think the current situation for Josh Turrek and Democrats
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: in Iowa is slightly better and slightly sort of the
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: environment's just everything's just a little bit better when you
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: put the whole picture together than Texas, which still feels
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: like everything can go right for Democrats and they still
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: come up a couple points short or.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: Main that is.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: I think, you know, you know, they were arguably Democrats
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: ran an almost perfect race in twenty twenty with a
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: very generic dem type of candidate, and they lost by
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: eight points, right in a year that Biden carried that
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: state quite comfortably. So I think we all underrate Susan
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Collins at our own peril. And then throw in the
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: fact that Plattner may allow this race to become a choice,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: not a referendum. And so you put all those three
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: together and I put Iowa now in the four spot,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: which is a huge leap for it. But I think
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the look, I think Ashley Hinson's a very strong candidate,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, and you can make a case
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: that she might actually be stronger than Joni Urns would
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: be running for real life simply because of the lack
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: of enthusiasm of Trump World with Joany Earns. But this
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: governor's race could be very competitive, or it could go
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: off the rails quite quickly. Right, This is not a
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: conventional Republican nominee. Rob saying has a ton of money
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: and he's already unloading it on him. And the first
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: hits are about Zach Lane not being a full time Iowan.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know the fact that he spends all
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: this time in Kansas, and there's a lot of his
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: own words saying we're going to spend as much time
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: as we can here.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: You know, it is it.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: It's probably a pretty effective hit. Right most people are
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: going to think this is a full time job and
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: that you can't be going part time back and forth
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: to Wichitah. That's going to be I think that's going
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: to be a hit that leaves a mark to the
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: point where I'm guessing Lane's going to have to really
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: come up with a better answer than he's come up
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: with about the fact that he's and he said he's got.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: A blended family.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: He's got some kids in Kansas and some of his
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: family in Iowa, and that that's what causes it. But
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: I think it could be a pretty The point is
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: is that Sam could draw really drag Turik over the
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: finish line, and he's going to be enthusiastic to lead
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: this Democratic ticket. So I put iowat number four and
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: at number five I'm gonna put Maine. And it's really
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: because of Collins's unpopularity. I am skeptical Platner. I think
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: this is, you know, under the perfect circumstances, defeating Susan
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Collins for Democrats has been quite difficult. Trying to do
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: it with a flawed yet a unique yet flawed candidate
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: seems like a very difficult thing to do. I think
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: one of the more underrated aspects of Maine and why
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: I think Susan Collins and might might not be able
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: to win no matter what is this interesting fact. So
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: if you look at Kamala Harris's overall performance around the country,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: she basically, you know, she slightly underperformed Biden in the
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: swing states, but really underperformed him in the non swing states, right.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: That accounted for the popular vote loss, and it counted,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: you know, just five and it was single digit, you know,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: margins and places like Illinois and New Jersey. The point
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: was is that in a lot of places that weren't
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: that that were not really contested that hard, she under
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: performed Biden across the board. And we remember twenty twenty
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: was huge, but believe it or not, Kamala Harris got
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: more raw vote in Maine than Joe Biden did in
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. She got more about vote in twenty twenty
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: four than Biden in twenty twenty. And it's kind of
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: an outlier and one of the reasons was Maine got
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: extra blue during COVID, and a lot of people moved there,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: and the people that moved there made the states appeared
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: to make the states slightly bluer. It's on the margins.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: It's a couple of points here, a couple of points there.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: But when you notice that essentially Kamala Harris had the
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: same performance as Biden and Maine and the raw vote
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: was the same, when we know turnout was much was
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: down from twenty twenty four overall compared to twenty twenty,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I think it tells you that the floor for the
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Democrats all bit higher in Maine than it was even
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, the last time Susan Collins was on
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: the ballot. So it's why that I still have Maine
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: as a top five potential flip. Still think it's you know,
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know there is a path for Democrats to
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: win the Senate without Maine, but it includes somehow flip
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: in Montana and or Nebraska and or Kansas. You got
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Alaska in there, right, Like you know, the path is
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: just a little more difficult, goes through areas there are
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: slightly more redder. It's why the argument for generic D
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: in Maine is much stronger today than looking for a
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: unique candidate that can somehow break the stranglehold that Susan
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Collins is held in that seat. It's possible the voters
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: changed already, and in fact, you might be risking this
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: seat more with a as Charlie Cook likes to call
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: some of these candidates with a more exotic candidate than
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: if you just have a cookie cutter generic day, because
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: the generic D vote is slightly higher now than it
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: was just six years ago thanks to sort of COVID immigration.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: If you will, so, here's my top five list. Number
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: one most likely to flip North Carolina, Number two Ohio
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a gap. Then I have Michigan, Iowa,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: Maine just missing the cut, Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Montana, Mississippi, Minnesota. Look,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: I think the second tier competitive section of the US
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Senate races this cycle. It's becoming more interesting by the day,
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: and I would prompt three or four of those races
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: I just rattled off. Maybe it's a Montana, maybe it's
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: a Mississippi, maybe it's a Minnesota. Are going to be
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: more competitive than we're thinking at the moment. I'm just
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: not sure which one of them is going to be
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: in the fall. But I promise you one of those
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: three or four that I've named on the second tier
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: is going to pop into the first tier at some point.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: All frankly, it's what these cycles do. And like I said,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: there's some there. This feels like a very uncentraled electorate nationwide,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: So I think always betting on more tumult is probably
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: a pretty safe bet these days. Well, the toodcast Top
• 54:35
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Slash predicts slash bonus high and offers hyphen
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: terms as Chuck. First question comes from PC in La
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: and he goes, hey, maybe this is more about how
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Washington really works. A question, but could the issue of
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: elected officials investing be solved by limiting them to broad
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: America focused options like bonds or index funds. The idea
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: being they invest in the country as a whole, not
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: individual companies to something like that have any realistic path forward.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: PC in la.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Hey, PC, my goodness, what a rational, good, normal good idea.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, what you're describing is how Barack Obama voluntarily
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: handled his investments that he would stay in major index funds,
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: essentially just buying, you know, doing just that, buying US bonds,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: buying treasuries.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: You know, if you.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Decided to be a public servant, you should profit off
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: the country's success, not necessarily.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: Off of some companies success. Right, So.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: That's a very elegant suggestion, and that you know, you
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: basically you almost come up with an index fund that
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: is the you know, red white and blue index fund,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: and you bet in the red, white and blue index fund,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: and that's you know, that's what you invest in, and
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: that's your Honestly, it's yes, because we want to encourage
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: people to invest. So yeah, I don't see what's wrong
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: with this. Seems like a very elegant solution. I hope
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: folks are listening on this one. Nice work, PC, I
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: liked it. Next question comes from one of our I
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: think at this point, Adam B. From Davy Florida. Might
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: I think he's in. I think he's now going to
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: become an elected officer in the Astruk five timers club.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: So Adam B and Davey Florida writes, he goes quick
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: correction from a loyal listener, Jerry Ryan seven of nine
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: was on Star Trek Voyager, not Deep Space nine. Okay,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: fair enough, Maybe a chance to make up for it
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: with a futurist on the politics of post scarcity Star
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: Trek world nuts best regards at it be my apologies
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: for getting Jerry Ryan wrong. The two thousand and four
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Sentate race, like I said, one of my I think
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: you know so one of the my favorite headlines to
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: bring people in on that ones. Let me tell you
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: about a Senate race where a candidate got into a
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: scandal for wanting to have sex with his own wife.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: It certainly is a great way to start a story, right.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: It does command the room and it gets people's attention.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: But I absolutely thought Jerry Ryan was a Deep Space niner.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: My apologies, and this is you know what this really exposes.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: Adam and I am more of I'm more of a
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Star Wars guy than a Star.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: Trek guy, but I don't. I'm not anti Star Trek.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: I like me a good Star Trek.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: In fact, I'm curious, Adam, what you think of the
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Seth McFarlane homage. I'm going to call it an homage
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: to Star Trek the Orville with what he did, but like.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: It was a show that.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Was better executed than it got credit for because everybody
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: thought that it was going to be a comedy. It
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: wasn't necessarily meant to be a comedy that it was
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: more about Seth doing his homage to Star Trek. But
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: everybody was disappointed that it wasn't a comedy, and therefore
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: it didn't get the traction I.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Think it deserved. I'd love your response on that, Adam.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: Next question comes from Dan and he says, Hey, I've
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: heard you say progressives haven't lost enough to rethink their approach.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: If candidate's like Platina or else I had losing the general,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: do you think that would prompt a shift or will
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: the movement stay the course? Thanks for keeping me informed
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: and entertained. PS if this gets read on air, I'm
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: officially in the five maybe six timers club. Dan, congratulations,
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: I'd like to know where if we geographically expanded the
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Five Timers club. Right, We've got Davy Florida represented. We
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: know that, I know, I got Arkansas represented in here?
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: Where? Where? Where? Where? Where?
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Where can we find you Dan so that we can
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: properly put the little pin on the map on that.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: I think that you know, that's what you know, it's
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: it's going to be really interesting, you know, mom. Donnie
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: is is using his political capital not to convince more
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: New Yorkers that his way is going to work, but
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: he's trying to remake the Democratic Party in New York
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: City into his image.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: Right, he is.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: Essentially the pied piper of all the primary challenge from
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: the left that are taking place to sitting members of
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Congress in the New York City delegation. He's going after
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: fellow Democrats, basically trying to get them replaced with Democratic socialists.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: He clearly sees himself as a leader of a movement.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: And and I also understand why progressive say, hey, give
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: us the wheel. We haven't had the wheel. We have
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: come close to having the wheel, but we haven't had
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: the wheel. Even when we've won. We've always you know,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: And I'm just if I were sitting in the shoes
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: of a progressive This is what I think I would believe,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: which is, we've helped Democrats get power, we've helped shape
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: the messaging, we've helped shape some things, but we've we've
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: not been in charge. We've always deferred to the whatever
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: is referred to as the pragmatic wing of the party,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: mainstream wing, whatever you want to call it. And in
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the same way, you had a core group on the
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: right that felt as if, you know, we compromise all
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: the time, We get you the volunteers you asked for,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: and then we defer to the more moderate leaders of
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: the party, and they get to be in charge, get
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: the call of shots with McCain, Romney right, Paul Ryan,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: et cetera. And they were like, they wanted their presidency,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: and they're they're you know, they're getting they're getting their
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: chance at the wheel. And I think a lot of
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: progressives see that, Hey, their their base, their base got
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: actually got a hold of the party and got a
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: hold of the leadership right, and they had never.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: Gotten that before.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: And I think the progressives are a bit jealous that
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: of Mega that they were able to essentially push out
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: their establishment. Progressives have it they've had to they've They've
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: basically been right. The establishment is is is a bit
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: stronger inside the Democratic Party, and I think it's because
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: there's a little more ideological diversity in the Democratic Party, right.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: The progressive base is not as big as the conservative
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: base that Trump has in the Republican Party. And I
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: think that is why there is a distinction here and why.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: But that's what I mean by it. I think progressives believe,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: and I've, in fairness to them, I think they're right
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: that they have not. You know, Nancy Pelosi was not
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: a progressive. Nancy Pelosi was a liberal, but she was
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: a mainstream pro business liberal that is not you know.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: I think certainly she was empathetic to the progressive movement
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: more so than maybe a lot of other mainstream liberal Democrats,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: but she was not a progressive. Did it with Chuck
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Schumer right dinner with Harry Reid. They wanted to accommodate
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: the progressives. They wanted to find a place at the
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: table for the progressive They were hoping that would be enough, right,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: And I think now the progressives say, hey, your leadership
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: of the party has not worked, so once you let
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: us lead and see what happens. Now the pragmantis that
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: are leading think the progressors are going to take them
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: down the wrong path and we're going to find out right.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: But that's what I mean by that, By the way,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: they could be in charge and turn out to they
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: are right and the public says, yeah, I didn't know
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: I wanted this, and this is what I want, right.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: That's the that's the that's the that's what makes this
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: country great, or what can make this country great is
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: that is that you can get that opportunity, and we're
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: one of the in you know, New York City is
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: going to be an interesting experiment. So I you know,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: I do think that if you know, and this has
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: been I was having this debate with somebody the other day,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: progressives don't believe they've gotten a presidency. Well, there's a
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: lot of people that are not progressives in the Democratic
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Party that say, Okay, Elizabeth Warren didn't win the presidency,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: but she certainly staffed the Biden White House and she's
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: in the first two years. Would of a Biden presidency
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: was the Warren agenda, not necessarily what Biden ran on.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: So and that turned out not to be popular. But
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: I just you know that that is where progressors are.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: Like whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You know, they want to
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: pull back. They're not.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: They want to take credit for some of the stuff
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: in Biden world that is popular, but they don't want
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: too much attachment and acceptance of how much influence they
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: actually had on the Biden presidents. They had enormous influence. Again,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: this was probably the most progressive friendly Democratic president since FDR,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: and it is certainly in my lifetime. Next question comes
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: from Mark h Allen, Texas says, Hey, Chuck was thinking
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: about the Belichick coaching tree and how it's littered with
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: promising assistance failing as head coaches. It seems as if
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: all his assistants who move on to a head coaching
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: role tried too hard to be him and it never
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: really works because they just aren't him. As we ponder
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: a post Trump nation, do you think his disciples are
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: going to over rotate on being Trump and up being
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: even more of a disaster. I love Mark, you you
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: do a good job of humoring me here. Love the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: metaphor you built there, Love what you're how you're thinking
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: about this. I think you're one hundred percent right about
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: the Belichick coaching Tree, and I think I think we've
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: seen you're probably going to be right about Trump. And
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: in fact, it feels as if anybody that tries to
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: emulate Trump too much doesn't do very well. Right, that
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: there's only one Trump. And you know, yes, there are
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: some people that think it's a way for them to
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: blow past some of the worst parts of their resume,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: hoping they can just sort of trumpify their resume a
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: little bit, meaning sort of take something that should be
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: a demerit and try to turn it into character strength
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: of some sort. Right, So I totally where you're going,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: and I just I do believe that that a Trump
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: imitator is going to get roundly rejected. In fact, I
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: think that's part of Ramaswami's problem in Ohio. I think
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: he's too I think voters sees something that like, no, no, no,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: we don't want a Trump.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: We got one.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: Trump's enough. We don't want one. Our is our governor
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: too right. It's one of those things. And so that's
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: my at least thesis on why Ramaswami is struggling, that
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: there's this group of voters who literally are like, yeah,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: I want Trump to shake things up. I just want
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: one Trump. I don't want these acolytes doing it. You know,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: I think the States run just fine. Let's not overthink
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: it here, right, So that that's so I'm you know,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: it's it's why. Frankly, it makes sense to me that
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: Vance or Rubio might actually be smart potential errors to
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: Trump because they don't share his personality. I think anybody
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: trying to emulate Trump personality and trying to behave like
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: him is going to get roundly rejected.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think we want and in fact, before the
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Trump era we usually we usually and I think we Frankly,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: I could argue that even in the Trump ara, we've
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: done this. We usually elect a new president who has
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: attributes the previous president didn't have. And even in the
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: Trump ara, you could you could make this argument, right,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: you know, if Barack Obama were too nuanced, you know,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump does no nuance, right, If Barack Obama were
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: all gray area, Trump is all.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: Bright colors, right in that.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Sense, Trump was shaken up, Biden was settled down, right,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: Trump in this case was the change in twenty four
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: and Kamala was more of the same. So, and I
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: think we decided, well, we didn't want too quiet. Biden
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: was too quiet of a president to not a part
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: of the presidency, right, So I do think we're going
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: to be looking for somebody with different attributes from Trump,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: and I think if you try to present yourself as
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: a continuation of the same character as Trump, I think
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: that's going to get rejected. All right, Next question, first
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: time questioner here, big fan of the podcast and analysis.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: I've seen concerns about CBS shifting right under new leadership,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: with their coverage still feels pretty in line with mainstream media.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: To me, what am I missing? Do you see a
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: real shift or is this more perception than reality? Thanks
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: Jessica from Austin. You know, I think it is what
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: it is is it's targeted perception. Right. It goes back
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: to something I was the point I was trying to
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: make with the Monday episode and my commentary about the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: CBS situation, which was, you know, notice you know this
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: is this is about a shiny object that Donald Trump
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: pays attention to, and his administration's in charge with whether
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: this merger gets approved, and he's got one thing he
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: cares about sixty minutes, so they've got to symbolically look
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: like they're doing all sorts of stuff to sixty minutes
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: and the and other than sixty minutes. The only other
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: place that is seen as sort of the voice or
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: the central nervous system of a news organization and television
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: is the evening newscast. And so they made a big
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: dramatic but they haven't touched other stuff. And I'm hesitant
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: to note the stuff they haven't touched for fear that
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: I'm putting a target on some of those places. But
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's notable of a couple of other important
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: franchises at CBS News that have been untouched and have
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: gone on doing what they do well. And I think
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: some of you probably know exactly the couple of shows
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about in particular, and there really hasn't been
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: you know, so they do, you know, they do little
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: symbolic things, so you're right. I would say ninety percent
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: isn't any different, but it's little ten percent things that
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: they try to do right. So they'll do things that
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: they know in some ways that'll troll the left so
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: that it gets the right to notice that they made
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: the left unhappy about something, you know, maybe by saying
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: a nice word about Marco Rubio, right like Tony Dekolpalitat
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: or something. This is a you know, looking like they're
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: doing massive shakeups at sixty minutes and getting involved in
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: there is just enough to appease Brendan Carr because they're
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: kind of simpletons here, Car and Trump. They're they're not
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: serious about what they're doing, but they want to create
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: the perception and strike fear in other news organizations. And
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: that's why the targeting of sixty minutes is is such
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: a symbolic target. So on one hand, there hasn't been
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: massive change, you're right overall. On the other hand, it's
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: targeted perception in order to get what they want. And
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: that's why I get frustrated a bit with a little
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: bit of all the reporting about this and sometimes a
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: little bit of the pear clutching.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: I do think that we.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: Should be concerned any time a corporate entity is inserting
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: itself into a news organization, it's a problem, whether it's
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: on stage left or stage right right. Fox is not
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: a legitimate news organization because it's corporate parent inserts itself
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: and won't allow for certain points of view to ever
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: be aired in certain parts of its because they've got
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: a point of view and they want to and they're
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: sort of getting involved, and you see this frankly all
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: around now and this has been my large I think
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: the larger issue is you can't trust a corporate parent
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: of a news organization if that corporate parent has other
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: business before government. We have now been proven that this
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: set of corporate parents are not going to prioritize the
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: First Amendment over their own business bottom line. That's the
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: concern that should be the outrage. This is not about ideology.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: This is about corporations making editorial decisions based on the
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: bottom line, not on any other judgment. By the way,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: every news story leans one way or the other as
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: far as some people are concerned, So it's not about that.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: What should outrage you is corporate involvement because they are
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: looking for an out specific outcome, and that should be
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: what's and that's what I think has been lost in
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: some of this commentary. This is why this is not
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: about Scott Pelly. And if you're making this about Scott Pelly,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: you're actually not covering the story. You're missing. You are
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: absolutely missing the forest of the trees on this one.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: And that's what I was trying to sort of focus
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: on This is not about Scott Pelly. This is about
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: a corporation deciding to use its news division as a
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: vehicle to curry favor in order to get government regulatory
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: approval of a questionable merger that plenty of critics believe,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: you know, might be against the greater good, the greater
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: public interest. All right, this is not about media bias.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: This is this is something different. This is about using
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: a news division in the world in the most nefarious
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: way in order to improve your own bottom line. And
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: that's what makes this so distressing that those of us
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: that do care about these brands, and this is sort
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: of like where I think it's a it's a tough call.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: If you work at sixty minutes right now, you see
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: what's happening, you know what's happening. I think I would
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: hunker down and just hope for new owners in two
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: years as soon as because the Ellisons are there as
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: soon as they Ernie. I don't believe they're in they're
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: super left or super right. I just think they see this.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: They're just being opportunistic here and they do what business
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: plenty of business people do. They see an opportunity and
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: they seize it. The question is going to be who
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: owns the sixty minutes Brandon three years and it will
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: it be recoverable by that? And to me, that's the
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: calculation if you work at sixty minutes you have to
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: make at the moment. All right, I'm gonna wrap up
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: questions there before I go, I want to make a
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: quick little comment about the Brendan Soresby situation. This is
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: the quarterback that gambled on his own team when he
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: was at Indiana. He since attempted to transfer to Texas Tech. Uh,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: he was going to be he had been ruled ineligible
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: to play college football, and he got reinstated by a
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: a judge from you know that had ties to Lubbock, Texas.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: So it looked like what we've seen in Cuba. Issues
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: are ruling university susan a local judiciary and a local jurisdiction,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: and the local judge sides with the local university and
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: lo and behold, Trindad Chambliss gets to play another year
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: at Ole Miss thanks to a Mississippi judge, and now
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: Brendan Soresby apparently will get to play in Texas Tech.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: But what's interesting about the Soresby situation is how This
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: isn't sitting right with anybody in college football, the NCUBA,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: and so I don't understand how this. I understand if
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: a judge ruled that they should be eligible to go
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: to class, they should be eligible. They can you know,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: if Texas Tech decides they can play in regular season games.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: But to me, you know, where's the College Football Playoff?
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: Is its own entity? They ought to just not allow.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: You know, it used to be there. You sometimes would
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: get suspended, you would be ineligible for postc in play.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: You could play in the regular season, you could play
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: in your conference, but you couldn't you couldn't participate in
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: a bowl game, or you couldn't participate in any postseason
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: if your sport had a postseason, like a tournament.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: Or something like that.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: How is that not the punishment for soresby? Right, he
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: broke one of the cardinals sins. Right, he bet on
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: his own team, he admitted, he bet on his own team.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: If they can't draw a line on this, what the
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: hell are they ever going to draw a line on?
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: So I empathize with what the Big Tennis saying, Hey,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: they're not going to play Texas Tech in any other sports.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: If they decide this is how they're going to conduct
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: their athletic department. Hey, that's the market speaking. I do
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: think Texas Tech got to cut ties here. I don't
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: think they realize how this is. This is one of
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: those things that can be damaging in the long term,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: right when this sticks to you that there are no
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: morals or ethics at all. Come on, guys, and you
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: know the Big Twelve, I have Long's thought has some
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: terrific leadership with Brett Yormack. They need to step in here.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: This is bad, bad for everybody. Puts the Big Twelve
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: in a bad position, puts Texas Tech in a bad position.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: It sort of taints all of the good Texas Tech
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: has been trying to do for the Big Twelve in
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: for college football, and I don't want to see it.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: And I think Texas Tech is making a huge, huge
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: branding and marketing and perception. Look, I think they're making
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: a huge mistake just on teaching kids a lesson here.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: This needs to be seen as kind of an NCAA
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: death penalty, and it should be individual, but it should
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: be a postseason death penalty on this one at least
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: one year. And you know we're Look, we've got all
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: sorts of problems. I think you heard me the other day.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: I think the SEC and the Big Ten have no
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: interest in growing college football. They only have interest in
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: putting a velvet rope around it. It's why I'm you know,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: I uh what what Cody Campbell I think it is
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: his name, has been doing at Texas Tech as a
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: booster and trying to trying to essentially break the duopoly
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: that is the Big Ten or and the SEC. I
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: think has been good for college football. And if you
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: care about college sports, you don't want what what the
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: SEC and the Big ten are doing or just anti competition.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: It is anti It's just it's not but it's bad
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: for college football. It makes it less interesting, it keeps fewer.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: And I say this is you know, I've got a
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: I root for a team that will will absolutely not
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: let the SEC.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: And the Big ten keep them out, all right, and
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: and you know.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: They'll play by whatever ridiculous rules these two conferences arrogantly set.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: But this is why my friends at the Big twelve
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: and Texas Tech need to do the right thing here
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: in Sowarsby. This is this is a terrible this is terrible.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: Outcome, and it's fact that.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: What's interesting is how unified though college sports world seems
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: to be about this. Nobody can defend this decision. It's
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: terrible decision. It's terrible look. So I hope the Big
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: twelve steps in here. They need to step in here
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: and protect Texas Tech from itself. I get they're trying
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: to win at all costs. I understand it, especially when
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: they're living in a state where you're dealing with a
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: big brother in Texas that gets to do whatever the
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: hell it wants, and it's part of a conference that
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: does not care about the future of college football outside
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: of the SEC, which is a shame. I think the
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: SEC is a terrific product. It would be a better
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: product with better competition, but they don't want the competition.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: But don't give all. By behaving this way, Texas Tech
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: and Big twelve, you're just handing more potential power to
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: the SEC in the Big Ten, and that's the last
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: thing the sport needs.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: And with that, I've said my piece on that.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: I'll see you guys in twenty four hours with a
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: Thursday episode.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.