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Buy Or Sell These Guys In Week 2 · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Week one just wrecked half your fantasy team's perceived value, and I genuinely think most of you are about to make trade decisions off of one game that you're gonna regret by week six.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: So today I'm gonna go through a few names who I'm buying while everyone else panics, who I'm selling while their stock's still inflated, and who I'm holding no matter how loud your group chat might be about that player right now.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: So here's what's coming a tight end that scored zero points, that's still my number one buy in the entire league right now.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: You probably know who I'm talking about, a running back who just put up a fantasy RB1 week that I'm telling you to sell immediately, and a receiver everyone's ready to give up on that I actually think is the exact opposite of what you should be doing.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: So let's get right into it.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with AJ Brown.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to wait six weeks to get AJ Brown back.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: I need to rack up some wins right now.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: And if he's not a hundred percent and he has to ramp up when he gets back in weeks eight to ten, and he's not a hundred percent, and then he has his buy.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to make the playoffs.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: So give me Parker Washington and something else, right?
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Give me Christian Watson one for one right now, give me DJ Moore one for one right now.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: The guys in that tier.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe some people that think that they can get by with AJ Brown, but it's gonna be annoying.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: They have a strong team, maybe the willing to stash him.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Trade him to that team.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: I want to rack up wins now, and the players I trade for can obviously still help me at the end of the season, too.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: So the tight end that I mentioned earlier, who I'm buying is Colston Loveland.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: Him scoring zero points in a game where the Bears put up 59 points looks brutal, but the underlying role was so much better than the box score.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: He had the highest route participation of any Titan in week one, which is exactly the kind of usage you want to chase before the production shows up.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: The Bears simply didn't need to throw much because Carolina was getting destroyed on the ground, and Chicago finished as one of the most run-heavy teams in neutral situations on Sunday.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: But if Lovelin is gonna be on the field that much in an offense that has explosive potential, the targets are going to come.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: He was one of the best target earners at the position last year, and this is likely the cheapest he's ever gonna be in trades all season long.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about Chuba Hubbard and why I am selling him.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Let's rewind to last season, okay?
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Chuba Hubbard, 21 opportunities, 18 fantasy points in week one, 16 opportunities, 19 fantasy points in week two.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: He found the end zone both weeks, ended up losing the job still, and shifted the backfield, you know, between the Rico Dattle takeover and a shared backfield, right?
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Chuba's top 10 running back finish in week one is one that we should be taking advantage of.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: He scored 23.7 fantasy points in PPR, his expected fantasy points in PPR was 17.5.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd rather move up to somebody who, you know, is the clear RB1 for their team.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: And yes, like you might have to package him up, and that's fine, but you know, trading up to get a Kyron Williams even or a Cam Scadaboo or Jeremiah Love, Jonathan's could be coming to make this more of a timeshare once he's healthier, and this could end up just being a 50-50 at best for Chuba Hubbard in a couple weeks.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's talk about Luther Burden.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know, obviously week one was definitely disappointing, but I am not panicking yet.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: I am holding him.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: The role did grow from last year, and he actually led the Bears in route participation on Sunday.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: 71% of Caleb Williams' dropbacks, definitely not enough, uh, especially for what we were hoping he would be, locked into a full-time role right away.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Khalif Raymond getting in the way and being the most productive Bears wide receiver is very annoying.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think that continues.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Until Burden's route share climbs, though, he's more of a hole than like an every week automatic start.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: The talent is obviously still there.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm probably still gonna start him again this week as a wide receiver three.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um, the offseason hype, you know, didn't disappear after one game, but we do need to see that usage take another step in week two to really, you know, reach those expectations that we had.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, they just didn't want to put too much on his plate after being injured for a few weeks in August.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Bajel Tootin.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: His week one usage was way more encouraging than it might look at first glance, so I'm looking to buy.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: The first half against the Browns was more of a committee while the team gave Chris Rodriguez a chance, but Tootin played well enough to take over as the guy in the second half.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: He was extremely efficient, ranked top 10 in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt among qualifying running backs in week one, and he finished with 88 yards on 16 touches.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Liam Cohn also had positive things to say about him after the game, and it matters because Tootin is competing for that lead role.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: So if he earns that job in one of the best offenses in football, this might be the cheapest he'll be for a while.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is DK Metcalf.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: He looks like a completely different player than expected in week one, particularly his role.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: So I am buying his target share, air yard share, expected fantasy points were all strong, and he easily could have had a much bigger fantasy day.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: The biggest difference in his deployment is that he's not just being used as a deep ball receiver, he's getting intermediate work too, which can completely change his fantasy outlook from what I was projecting coming into the season.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: And for when he is running those downfield routes, Aaron Rodgers is actually pushing the ball downfield more than we've seen in years, and Mike McCarthy has his heelist throwing at one of the highest rates in neutral situations.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: So if this role sticks, Metcalf is underpriced as of right now, and I want to buy before the blow up game comes.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Someone who I'm not panicking on is Jalen Waddle.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, it's one game.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna hold, you know, one absolutely terrible game for the entire Broncos offense, like you know, tough defense.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not too thrilled about the slot usage.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's fine, like 67% is a lot.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I was really hoping that he would be the primary flanker, and he did get some design stuff, like bonus just chose not to really like go for them.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: But it is possible that they were trying to take advantage of some matchups, it didn't really go as planned, right?
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: 81 route participation, very solid.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: So we just have to hope for a bounce back game after a pretty miserable week one.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: The talent isn't gonna disappear overnight.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: And everything we've been hearing from camp is that Waddle is the guy for this passing offense.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see if Davis Webb's play calling is gonna be an issue here.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully not.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: And if it is, hopefully Sean Payton can just take it back.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: And make it Buka, someone I'm buying, man.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: He answered the biggest question coming into the season for me, which is whether he was fully healthy.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: And based on week one, the toe injury didn't look like it was holding him back at all.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the production was, you know, modest, it was relatively quiet, but the context matters, right?
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: DJ Turner shattered him for the entire game, or uh well, most of the game, I should say.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: And Baker Mayfield had a sloppy turnover filled performance.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I think all that should improve.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: And Buka's role is pretty encouraging, by the way.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Like, the reason why he was able to get away from DJ Turner at times is because he was playing the Z receiver role, uh, plenty of motion, which gets him easier access to targets and you know production in better matchups.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: So if anyone's panicking after week one, I'd be even looking to buy to be honest with you.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as far as Kyle Manangai goes, 100 yards rushing for Kyle Mananga and just 10 carries, like you gotta sell, okay?
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: He he had the longest run of his career, 20 fantasy points in this game.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: So he ended up being a fantasy RB1 uh in week one.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Probably not gonna happen again, okay?
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Only eight and a half expected fantasy points in this one for him.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: The Bears offense obviously went nuts.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: The Panthers couldn't stop the run at all.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: So if I can take advantage of this game, trade him one for one for like an underpriced wide receiver like Alec Pierce or Josh Downs, or package him up for you know, package him up with another wide receiver, maybe to grab someone like Ramondre Stevenson or even Bashell Tutin.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know, or you know, you can aim better, you can aim higher, obviously.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, Manongai is not someone you're gonna be able to start most weeks.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: At best, he's gonna be a desperate start in RB3 type at best, as long as Dean J.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: Swift is healthy.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: I want to do my best to take advantage of this boom game from the Bears backfield.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I mentioned Alec Pierce, like I'm buying Alec Pierce right now.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: He wasn't in a full-time role just yet, but he looked pretty healthy on the routes he did run.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: He averaged a 27% target rate, like obviously it's on a per route basis.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and his if his route participation climbs, that target rate can turn into a strong weekly target share.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: Even just running a route on 65% of Daniel Jones' dropbacks in this game, he led the Colts receivers in fantasy production.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: He caught four of six targets for 61 yards.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, pretty good for a part-time role.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: And the bet here is that his route share obviously climbs higher and higher and moves to that full-time role soon.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: And if that happens, he has a real path to just simply being Daniel Jones' number one receiver with every week wide receiver to upside.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and at his current price, he's an easy buy.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about Marvin Harrison Jr.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Man, just just so much, so much more of the same for him, right?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I just want to move on, and I'm selling.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: You you you would hope his involvement to start the year would completely change or at least somewhat change the narrative, but no, it didn't happen.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: And based on his week one usage, still a vertical receiver, you know, not running a ton of in-breaking routes, you know, no motion at all.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, not the role of an upside fantasy wide receiver.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: Michael Wilson's role, you know, as the move wide receiver here is more encouraging.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think most fantasy managers will still assume that he can bounce back, and I'm sure he can bounce back to being startable as a borderline wide receiver, too.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: But I would say that's best case scenario.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: And so I would try to package him up right now for some type of upgrade, whether it's like a Devontae Smith who underperformed or Meke Buka who underperformed, um, you know, there's Luther Burton, there's T.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: Higgins, a lot of underperformers that you can potentially, you know, inquire about and see what you can do.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: And one of those underperformers who, you know, obviously isn't in in a higher tier, but is Josh Downs.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: His week one was definitely extremely quiet, but I'm not moving off of him just yet.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: This was never about whether Downs can earn targets.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: We already know that he can do that.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: This was just a relatively tough matchup overall.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: The important part is that he's finally a full-time receiver, just like Shane Steichen said he would be.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: 94% rap participation is insane for Josh Downs.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: And that matters way more to me than one underwhelming box score because it tells me that the targets are coming.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: You know, so if he's gonna be on the field in two receiver sets like he was in this game, and yes, he did get out-targeted by Keenan Allen.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: I, you know, I have to acknowledge that, you know, we'll see if that continues.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: But I would bet, based on Josh Downs' talent, that that's not gonna happen for too much longer.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, he was stuck in that part-time slot role before.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: I think better games are coming.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: So for me, this is you know, I'm I'm not, you know, I'm holding Josh Downs.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not panicking at all, not panic selling, not cutting him.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: If someone in your league is disappointed after week one, I'm still very interested in buying before the role turns into production.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: So that's week one.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Buys, sells, holds, all of it.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: If you want the actual trade values behind these calls instead of just my gut on all of it, that's in the season pass.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: Links in the description.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: Good luck with your trades this week.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you in the next one.