Latest / Sid & Friends In The Morning / Victoria Coates | Former Deputy National Security Advisor Unpacks Economic D-Day for Iran & Trade War with Canada

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Victoria Coates | Former Deputy National Security Advisor Unpacks Economic D-Day for Iran & Trade War with Canada · Sid & Friends In The Morning

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Victoria Coats. Maybe she's speaking in Vegas, I'm not sure,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: but here she is Victoria, good morning, How are you?
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: Good morning? Said I'm well, unfortunately i can't go to
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Vegas this year because I'm off to Israel the following
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: week to do the two hundred and fiftieth at the
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: US Embassy in Jerusalem.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, that is awesome. You know what's funny.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I walked past the US Embassy every day because I
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: went to the park, okay, and it was what two
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: blocks away from the Waldorf Vistoria, And I would walk
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: past every morning, no shirt on a pair of shorts,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: and they would just look at me from across the street, like,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: who's this guy, you know? And eventually by the third
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: or fourth there, walked over and shook their hands, said, Hey,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my name is Sid I'm in New York. Oh blah blah.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: But that's the embassy right there by the hotel. What
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: a glorious event. Good for you?
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it is just every time I go to
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: that complex, it's just it's so emotional that we did it.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: We moved it, and then they didn't move it back,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and so it's very exciting now as investor investor. How
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: Couldia embarks on building what will be the new complex,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the formal one, and we'll have everything moved over from
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Tel Aviv and they won't be able to move it back.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: That is fantastic. Good for you, excellent job, Victoria Coats.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Will miss you in Vegas, but you're after doing something better, believe.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: It or not. Let's get to divide and conquer.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's right, you'll be in Israel. I'll be in Vegas.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about Iran. It looks like we've moved this
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: now from a military operation, which you know we still
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: have obviously, but moving it in terms of focus from
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: a military operation to an economic operation. That's fair to say, Yes.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I think so. I'm really casting it as different facets
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: of the same effort. And I think it's important to
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: see this in the context of President Trump's broader approach
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: to Iran. This goes back to the nineteen eighties. He
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: was talking about how awful this regime was, what a
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: problem this was for America. But then, more importantly in
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: the first term, when we did the Maximum Pressure campaign,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: that damage that we did, and we know where they
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: were in January of twenty twenty one, when Biden took over,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: they were down to single digits in direct foreign reserves
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: that they had access to. That's default territory. And if
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: the bidens folk had kept the pressure up on them,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: as they were urged to do by some countries that
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: were remain nameless in the Gulf, they were told that
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: you want the best leverage to get to a deal,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: keep the pressure on. They said, no, no, we know better.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: We're going to make friends with them. We're going to
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: release the sanctions, we're going to give them economic relief.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: And look what happened. But none of that got fixed.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: They didn't invest it. They spent it on October seventh,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: they spent it on the nuclear program, they spent it
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: on the IRGC, but they didn't fix their economy. So
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: all that damage was still festering. And last year they
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: had bank failures. All this stuff before epic fury. That's
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: the critical point. It's so much worse because of epic fear.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: And now we can have the new initiatives announced by
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Secretary Bennett our best Besset sorry yesterday, which will have
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: a compounding effect on what's already been done.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: But does that win the war? You know, it depends
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: what you speak to. Some people say, yes, that's great,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: and if you strangle them, because I heard Ari Fleischer
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: say yesterday, you know what you're going to get is, look,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: we know this. Iran is not even paying a major
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: part of their military. I know you know that. So
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: they're probably gonna get out, I guess, although they'll kill
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: them if they don't. And you know they're murdering protesters
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: President Trump just but this are true social who aren't
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: even protesting. So I think Ari was saying yesterday with
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Katch and Cosby that an uprising is imminent. But again,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to be realistic about this. When these people
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: hit the streets and they do do that, they get
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: gunned down. So I don't know, like I talk about
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: with Mark Levin, unless the United States is willing to
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: own these people nothing. It doesn't matter how bad it
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: gets economically, it doesn't matter how angry they are, it
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter what they want to do. You can't beat
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: guns without guns. So realistically, how are the people ever
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: going to change things?
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: And he run Now, I think that's that's a very
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: very important point that most people haven't understood during epic theory,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: and I think what we'll see with Operation Economic Outcast
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: is the situations for the people in Iran becoming increasingly dire,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: and I think this is why the President hesitated to
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: do it. He doesn't want them to suffer and you
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: know their potential economic backlash for the United States. He
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: doesn't want the American people to be inconvenience, but he
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: had no choice, and we do have to end this,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: and I think what you'll see is that kind of
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: cascading failure with in Iran as basic structures start to
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: start to break down. And I'm particularly watching their banking sector,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: and one of the important things that was announced yesterday
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: is that all branches outside of Iran if their main bank,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: which is the Malibank, are to be closed down, and
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: that includes branches in France and Germany where they should
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: not be. So that's a good thing. But then throughout
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: the Middle East as far field as Afghanistan, so that
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: will all get shut down, they will be cut off
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: from that commerce. That bank could fail. It absorbed one
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: of the failing banks last year, so that is a
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: structure I'm watching very closely. So then you're going to
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: have increasing unrest and that's when I think we really
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: need regional partners to step in, who know so much
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: better what's going on inside the country. Who are the
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: people who need the guns, who are the people who
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: need the communications? And I would be looking to partners. Yes,
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: the Kurds great partner to us. They're not a nation state.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: They're somewhat limited in what they can do. So let's
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: look at UAE. Let's look at Azerba, which has the
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: largest ethnic minority in Iran. The is very minority, it's
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: the biggest of the ethnic minorities. Neighboring country, strong military,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: good friend to Israel, good friend to the United States.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: You know, they could do a ton to help, so
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: we can coordinate some of that. We should not be
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: directing it. We don't have that on the ground. You know,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: it's sort of intimate knowledge. And Israel obviously can do
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: a great deal as well. So that's how I hope
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: this is shaping up. People talk a lot about DIME
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: in Washington, d C. Diplomacy, intelligence, military, economic, We've used
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: all of those things. This would fall into the intelligence category,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: so we shouldn't have all the details on it for
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: it to be effective. But that's my hope about how
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: that will play out.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Well, that sounds good to me. Victoria Kochrot here doing
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: a terrific job, as she always does. So I was
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: talking to Charlie Gasperino Yesterday's a brilliant economic mind that
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: you know, and he said, this kind of is stuff.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it's a waste and it
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like mac corney is all that intimidated. So
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: you tell me what exactly is the endgame with Canada.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Oh, I think the endgame probably will come pretty quickly.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: This is obviously a critical relationship for the United States
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: and Carnia unfortunately has let politics really color how he's
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: approaching this. His government is somewhat precarious and he's not
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: very popular. So I think we need each We need
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: each other. They need us more than we need them,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: so hopefully cooler heads will prevail. I agree. You know,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: we don't need to be having this conversation right now.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: We need to be focused on the dangers of socialism,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: the success of President Prumpt's economic policies, especially energy policy.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: We need to be explaining to people what data centers
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: are and what they are not, and what we should
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: be doing to keep ahead of the Chinese and the
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Ai race, and we should not be talking about tariffs
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: on Canada. So I agree that relationship needed a reset.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Hopefully that has been achieved and we can get back
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: to the negotiating table and get to a good deal
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: for the United States and a good deal for Canada.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: You're in your way to Israel next week. And one
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: of the people that I follow religiously, he's really great.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: I know, you know him, Johnny Daniels. I don't know
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: he's in Israel, He's in London, He's all over the place.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: He's in the Hamptons. The guy has information. I don't
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: know how he gets the Victoria I said, he has
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: people everywhere. But he put out something this morning, which
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: is true because I've seen this too. And I had
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: BB on the show about three weeks ago, and we
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: talked about the upcoming election, and you know, he sounded
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: pretty confident, but didn't sound overwhelmingly confident. There was one
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: poll in Israel, yes they were BIBE was down like
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: six points. There was another poll in Israel yesterday for
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: BB was up like seven points. I got thirteen point
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: difference between these two poles. Now, lots of people will
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: tell you, including his senior policy advisor, my new best friend,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: doctor Ophi kunis that you do not bet. You do
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: not bet against Bybe. He's won five of the last
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: six elections. But for some of my friends in Israel
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: who love Bibe, they are getting nervous.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: What do you think, Well, I mean, I agree with
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: O Fear, which is always a smart place to be.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: He's a very astute observer of Israeli politics. But I mean,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: the short answer is said, nobody knows. You know, Israel's
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: a country is nine aspiring, nine million aspiring prime ministers.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, everybody has their views, and that's part of
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: the magic of the thing, and it's Metnahu has been
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: just a force in Israeli politics. He has created in
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: many ways modern Israel. As we look back on his career,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I wonder if the most significant thing will be the
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: economic reforms of the nineteen nineties, which really set up
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: the startup nation, the extraordinary resilience of the Israeli economy,
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: you know, and then the defense of the nation, and
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: so you know, he he has had a just transformative
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: fact on modern Israel. And I agree again I wouldn't
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: ever bet against him. But at the same time, Israel
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: is a democracy, and just like the United States, and
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: at some point, you know, he will move on and
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe he'll become president and it play a
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: huge role as an Israeli statesman. That could be, you know,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: a great thing for him. But just as we're going
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: to see President Trump, you know, step down from leadership
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: in two years, and we'll have a transition in the
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: United States for good or ill. That could happen in
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: October in Israel, and you know, you'll go back to
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: the old saying. I guess it was Charles de Gaulle
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: that the great yards are filled with indispensable men. But
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: that's the thing is somebody comes along, somebody steps up.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: You know, there's a new change of leadership, and that
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: keeps your nation vital. It can be jarring, you know,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: it can be disappointing, but that's yeah, I.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Know, but there's there's so many Winston Churchill's out there,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: if you know what I'm saying. So I think I
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: call him doctor Cornis of course Corners, he's in America.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I meant to say doctor Oh fear Falk. He's BB's
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: policy advisor. Is a great guy. But you're right, you know,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: these elections, this himocracy, although it's a very weird. It's
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a very very weird system there. It's not like one
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: guy gets more votes, who gets more electoral votes as
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: a whole, that whole parliamentary system there is a bit weird,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: so hard for everyday people have to figure it out
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: or don't live in Israel. Either way. Congratulations on this
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: amazing trip you're going on. And as always, Victoria, amazing
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: job on this show. Thank you so much.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Sid have a good time in Las Vegas.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: We will you two in Israel. That's the great Victoria coach.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I love her, she really is great.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Sit In Friends in the Morning.
• 11:52
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• 11:55
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• 11:56
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• 12:15
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• 12:18
  Speaker 1: What the heck is going on here.