Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Strait of Hormuz Open for Biz

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Strait of Hormuz Open for Biz · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to Wee Smires Perspectives.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_01: I should have a good opening because it's the second time I've had to do it.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Every once in a while we mess stuff up.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: Now we don't edit, but we do have to restart sometimes.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: So where was I?
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Happy Friday.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Weast Myers Perspectives, which you can only find on AgBull Media.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: And we need you to do us a favor.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: We need you to click like, subscribe, subscribe to the YouTube channel, subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify Podcast, wherever you get content, you could find us at AgBull Media.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: With that, I would love to see you on the premium side.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: So much stuff's coming out on the premium side.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: You don't know it unless you subscribe or are a client of uh AgBull Media Premium, right?
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Here's a little note card we made.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: That's my brother Joe.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: Joe Gersafi's a big part of the team.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: He's a broker at AgBull Trading and Nesvik.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: And that's me, of course.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: We got a QR code up there.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you'll be able to use that, but go to the website www.agble.com.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: Now with that, news is moving fast.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: How do we get our news?
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: We have a sponsor.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: Trade the news is sponsoring the AgBull Podcast, Wees Myers Perspectives.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, everything we do.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: And Jim has trade the news.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: I have trade the news.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: Nesvik has trade the news both in Memphis and Nashville.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: You should have trade the news.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Tell the folks at Trade the News.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: The AgBull team sent you over.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: Just tell them Ag Bull and they'll put you on a free trial.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think once you get a taste of the service, especially with how the markets are moving, you'll want to be a client of theirs.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: With that, we got an action pack show.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: Jim sent his notes.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: You didn't come here to see me ramble or do take two, so let's get to the mail.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: Beautiful days down there and rolling cattle and horse country, and I spoke to the Virginia cattle producers.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have more on that later, but it put me in a good mood because uh of all the happy cattle producers down there and good weather and very good stake down there.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: Want to talk markets, Jim?
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk markets.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go from the top.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I want to point out cotton first.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that cotton market for the week.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: We we're almost 80 cents, Tommy.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: If only we had a chart.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there we go.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you, Lindsay.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's uh a trend is your friend sort of thing.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that cattle set the cattle, that cotton sector really needed it.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: They need another at least a dime, right?
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: To break even.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, but we're a heck of a lot better than those 63, 64.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: We spent a lot of time down there.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: That was ugly and hats off to better times.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's a combination of weather, uh funds, right?
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: They they were too heavily short, things like that.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: So what a rally.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: What a rally.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and talk about that real quick.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone bashes the funds when the funds go heavily short and they go from short to neutral and then they go from short to long.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: You get you get this, and that's don't bash the funds, participate with them, folks.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, because funds give you liquidity both up and down, and you need you need volatility, you need volatility.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know a trader who likes volatility.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: Back to the quotes, my friend.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we had uh let's look at the the oil, still had a good week.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil, meal.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Although they've had a dramatic run-up lately, they had uh kind of a corrective uh wheat uh week.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans had a had a down market for the week, but look at corn.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Probably the weather just not planting that corn the way they normally would.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: So we were up a little over six cents for the week.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: And but wheat, wheat is the one that's rallying.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: HRW wheat.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Six six fifty in the in the July, and that's a that's that's really a weather market.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's so droughty in the in the high uh in the in in the plains states.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, yeah.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: That's we may have a story this year, Jim.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: I and it's moving, it, it's it's increasing in the plains.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now we've got some volatile weather coming up in in corn and soybean country.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: That was a few days ago.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's in that was in Iowa, yeah.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: Iowa, yeah.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: And and a number of areas, I I saw some weather reports this morning were saying they're gonna go from record highs to free to freezing or near freezing.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's why the market's really gonna be watchful this weekend, especially in the wheat uh area.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: However, even if you get under under freezing, which I think in some portions will, they've been dry.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I this is just my old sparks days, Tommy.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Dryness will tend to temper uh impact uh of a freeze.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I've I learned that at Sparks years ago.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: You learned a lot of things, and that's why we love your wisdom here.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: As Deputy Secretary Stephen Baden calls you, the dean of agriculture.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: Do we have more to talk markets?
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Are you ready to get in the shop?
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're ready to get her going.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: Talk cattle on feed, sir.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, a neutral report, primarily because all the categories reached at or near expectations.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's your bottom line.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: It still shows that we've got a a tight, uh, a tight cattle market.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: But you can see look at the actual uh, you know, versus I don't think we have three reports in there, but uh it it it showed that kind of kind of a neutral, but they're gonna go on the fundamentals themselves.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: We had a down day in the cattle market today, that but that was primarily fueled by fears by some and rumor mongers by others that Secretary Brooke Rollins might say something on a reopening of the border uh with Mexico, but we we we hadn't heard that before, Tommy, and we didn't think it was gonna happen.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: And when she walked off the stage in Texas today, the market rallied or tempered some of the losses.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, I'll be honest with you.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: I lost some money in cattle today.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: I I had a little bullish position based on the Dow Jones being up a thousand.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: I said it's all systems go, cattle opened up, and then you texted me, you said, What's going on?
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: I believe you were on agri talk with our friend Chip Flory and yeah, and that feeder cattle, folks, feeder cattle traded limit down.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, 925.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: This is adult swim only seat belts, folks.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: You shouldn't be involved in these markets or trading them unless you are a professional.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: And they uh we well, should we play the futures now and say wrist banner for love of God, you know?
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: And it shows in one day fear can get into the marketplace, and that's what got into it because we had a lot of news about Mexico this week on the on the uh screw worm where US trade uh rep uh Jameson Greer is going there, he'll be meeting down there Monday.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, you had some people thinking, oh my goodness, they're gonna announce the reopening of the border, and so it just got uh I I think it you know parlayed into that one.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Plus, we've we had a pretty good run up, and so it was time to take some profits.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and that that that is the when someone's like, Why'd the market move?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: I love when analysts are like it was profit taking.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: That means we don't know what the hell happened because these markets trade on a ladder.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: There are no pits, there are no screaming, there's a ticker behind me.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: I got giant screens in front of me.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: There's no yelling, the loudest noise here is my dog snoring on the floor.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: So when these markets move like that, we're all looking at each other like, what was that?
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: You're not alone.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: If you're out there and you're confused, we're confused and we're professionals.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I I do hope you're working with the professionals so that when news comes out, you can get the best news.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I even contacted my friends at Trade the News.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: I said, Have you heard anything on cattle?
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Because I can talk to them directly to the desk.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: And they said, No, what do you hear?
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I go, Nothing.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: By the end of the day, we had an explosive rally.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: June cattle got back to up on the day, Jim.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: And that's something, yeah.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: Unbelievable volume.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's I told you just the second she left that stage.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: I had some traders say it rallied because the fear was gone on that.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: And she had she said a couple of weeks ago that at the earliest that border would be reopened is late April, and that's the earliest.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's not late April, it's mid-April.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: And and a border opening doesn't look like uh it's not like the uh opening as trader who moves.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: We should talk about the opening as trader who moves, or we'll get in that a little bit.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: You ready to get in the show?
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: We're ready.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: This is your show, these are your notes.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: The stage is yours.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: The first one I wanted this after the markets because on April the 22nd, we're gonna have that data users meeting in Kansas City.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: You'll be at the Kansas City Feds office from one o'clock to 4:30 p.m.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Central Time.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: And this is the time, also be available online.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: So if you have questions on NASA's reports, now remember where Vaden told us that this is going to be a big session to allow the stakeholders in agriculture, analysts, farmers, etc., if they want to vent, they can vent, but they want suggestions too of how to make USDA reports better, because you need these USDA reports.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: So I think we should all work together and trying to make them better, and they'll have some ideas maybe too that they'll throw out.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: And this is an annual meeting, a data users conference, but I think they're gonna focus on uh on the response rates because if you recall, uh the uh planning intentions was under 47 percent.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think 37 compliance.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's low.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's low.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: So bad.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: They have to get that up because the more responses you get, the better tone and and the the better confidence you have in in the number that they put out.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's equivalent to the New York City election.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone's mad this mayor got elected, and I've totally gone off the rails here, but like no one showed up to vote.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: You gotta vote.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's a privilege in America to vote and say your opinions.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Next, next slide.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, hi.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: We're war with Iran.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, and that's where the volatility started today.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_01: Why are you laughing?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it was just you, I it's volatility.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: From the get-go, when Iran announced that the Strait of Harmuz was going to be open and they will never close it again.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: Never's a long time.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: That is a long time, and not that the people trust them, but we'll see, you know, trust but verify.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: And then Axios came out with a report that was on trade the news that uh they're they they were uh mulling uh with the White House in Iran uh$20 billion cash for uranium deal.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's that dust that Iran would would work with us to get rid of that uh premium uranium.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: So all that it gave at least the uh upbeat odds that this war may indeed be coming to an end.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't mean it ends to today, tomorrow.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna take at least a month to two months to to really get that oil flowing the way it was before, if not longer, Tommy.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: But but the as we let off with markets we're hoping for in trading peace the last few days.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: And they're it looks like they may be getting it.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now we've seen before some some hiccups can can happen when you're dealing with Iran, but Trump is clearly optimistic that the end is near.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: And that's that's a good thing for all sorts of markets.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: You thought, and eventually you'll be right, it will be good for the cattle market because it will eventually lower the price of energy.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: We've had a dramatic run-up in gasoline prices, and of course, the fertilizer is going to take at least two months to to uh factor through to get those products through the uh uh Strait of Armoods.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, bottom line, if this happens, plus you coupled with Israel in Hezbollah has a ceasefire, and that boosted the de-escalation hopes.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: So they really teamed together to say, okay, now at least we're seeing the beginning of the end, is how I would write it.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: And that's all the market needed because uh the the the stock market has never gone down as low as people thought, and we've had a rally coming into this, Tommy.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: So the traders had made up their opinion.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: They could they could follow where they thought that this was going, and they may they they may be right.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: So many things.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: Energy prices, we touched on this, but go ahead.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they fell a little less than 12% today, but had a little comeback, and I think it was around$84 on the on the WTI.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: Brent at say 87 or 80.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, let's see, 90, 90.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: So, but but that's a dramatic downturn.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, what was it, 115?
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: Just not.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, we hit like a I want to say like 127.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: I could look at the chart.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just scrolling through WTI.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: I want to tell everyone what December 26 WTI is trading,$72 a barrel.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: So Christmas crude 72.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's a little elevated, but a lot more normal.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: We can all do okay with that.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of farmers caught.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I want to go back a little bit.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: I I found a slide from last week and it's still pertinent because India came in and did a tender for fertilizer.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: If you're not following him, you should.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: Josh Lindville, the best.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_01: If you ask me for fertilizer, just ask him, he'll tell you.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: But Josh works harder than anyone else for this stuff, and I I commend him.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you've met him.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: You you spoke at uh Stone X and stuff.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: This guy knows his stuff.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: And Josh said today that it will be probably two months before we clear that straight and get fertilizer, you know, coming in again.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: And he's probably right there.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: Gold prices, fourth weekly gain on prospects for that ceasefire.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: So that's how important that is.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't have the levels of gold, but we've had a pretty good run-up in gold as well.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: We're trading, we hit 49, 4,900 in gold.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: Silver hit 83 today.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: Dr.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: Copper on fire, a nice all-around there as a trader.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: We call it risk on or risk off.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: And it was a massive, massive risk on.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: What's that mean?
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: When you see crude oil go down, you see the stocks get bid, you see the metals get bid, you see crypto get bid.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Anything they sold and said, I got to sell assets to get to cash to make this margin call or move money around.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: They all want out, and you know, it makes a big splash.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Then all of a sudden they all want back in.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: And you're Friday, April 17th, and you're like, Wow, the world didn't.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: And you know what, Jim?
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: We we were gonna run a commercial for you because you actually started a GoFundMe.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: You're trying to retire, and your 401k was looking horrible.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Tell us about that.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: My 401k was start uh was looking at a 301k, at least not 201k.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: I want to get it back to a 501k, and I think we're gonna be there by the way.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I can tell by the quality of that shirt you're wearing.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: You're not out of money.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_01: That is a money shirt.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: You are going to the beach after this.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: Look at you laughing.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: By the end of the year, we're gonna see the U.S.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: economy.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: That GDP is going to uh surprise people on the upside.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna get these emerging markets going.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: But that's some of the stuff I want to say at the end of the program.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, well then why did you say it?
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: Let's five teaser.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: Fertilizer is this nice stuff.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, go ahead.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, she was at uh Secretary Rollins was at the House uh Ag Appropriation Subcommittee hearing this week, and and we'll uh say on other topics what she talked about, some bottom lines, but she kind of mellowed on fertilizer because she was more realistic.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: She said it's gonna take a while, she didn't want to overpromise, but they are going, they are going to announce that they're using some of the tariff revenues to expand domestic production, but that's gonna take until 2027 minimum, if not 2028, to help counter the rising input cost.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, but she's working with other departments, the commerce department, energy department on that.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: But she admitted to the lawmakers that it's gonna take time, she can't snap her finger and get more production.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that's really what Stephen Vaden had told us in our interview.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: If they're really worried about 2027 and 2028 fertilizer supply.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if they're smart, Tommy, this is my perspective.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: What they would do is they'd offer tax incentives for investing in fertilizer production, and they would also offer grants because it's expensive to have you heard about this, or are you just making it up like well?
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard it that they've used it before, and and some there's some chatter about that.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: If they were starting to do that, where they're gonna do it.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, and then you have state grants matching with federal, and that's how you get an industry going.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying they should have it all the time, but you you get it going, and that's the investment signal coupled with more accelerated permitting, both at the federal level and at the state level.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: If they want to get uh fertilizer production, the audience should hear that's when they'll get serious, when they give entrepreneurs the investment signals that hey, they're in this, and this government wants that, and that'll come as a result of tax incentives, grants, and coupled with state and permitting acceleration.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk China, my friend.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, did we have a five-fifth one or not?
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: Or was that the fifth?
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, yeah, we're right.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: China, this this is going to be ever questioned if we're on five or six.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: This this is gonna be we're having a good show.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: I'm in a good mood.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is gonna be an issue, Tommy, in which we say in the trade it's gonna have legs because you just don't have two instances instances of foot and mouth disease.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: And China had the first ever what they call the SAT 1 outbreak across distant regions.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: They were far apart.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: And but DIM SUM it's a Chinese, I mean it it's a it's a service that monitors China.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: They're saying there's underreporting.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: And if that's the case, you have a potential disruption to to China's uh uh livestock and feed markets.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: That means more robust imports uh from China in the months, if not years ahead in the beef and feed sector.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: Watch this story, it's just beginning.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_01: You know, speaking of beef and sector, I was in Nashville a lot and an ad came on for Chipotle.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: And I know farmers are still mad at Chipotle from what they did years ago, but they you know what the ad was advertising?
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: What's that?
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: All their protein bowls and how many grams of protein?
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: Double chicken, double beef, double this, double that.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: And you you've done well on the weight loss shot.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: I recently switched, I'm starting to get cheeks again.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: And heck, we might do a new photo.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: Like Tommy, I didn't know you had cheeks, so we're not quite there yet, but I got a long way till someone will say I'm malnutrition, new you know, nutrition-wise, but there's something interesting about the shot I want to talk about, and I don't mind talking privately about it because when you go drop a bunch of weight, everyone's gonna know what you're doing, right?
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: Alcohol tastes horrible, and I like to have a cocktail, and I think you've like to enjoy the corn spirits yourself a little bit.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: It tastes like shit.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Why is that?
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_00: It changes well, the the uh GLP1 drugs, it they it just changes your taste somewhat, but it hasn't stopped.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: I can only have one now.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: It didn't make your hair grow back, I'll tell you that much.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: But I I like old fashions and I still like it, but only one, and then I get filled up back to the show.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, U.S.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: Trade Representative Jamison Greer really said some interesting things this week on China and the forthcoming May 14th to 15th summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China's leader in Beijing.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: He said that he's gonna hold them for for fulfillment of you'll recall that they that they said they committed to 25 million metric tons of purchases of soybeans for the next uh few marketing years.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: And he said that's gonna be part of the agenda.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now, he didn't say the additional tons of soybeans that President uh Trump said about a month or so ago, the additional 8 million metric tons he wanted.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_00: But the the key here is that he flagged China's soybean compliance ahead of that summit, and he elevated that enforcement mechanism, and that's what big because there's more than a few soybean producers in the U.S.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: who don't think that they're going to commit and follow through on that 25 million metric tons, but we're gonna see.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: But they're anchoring the broader trade pressures on Beijing as part of this forthcoming agreement.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, I think it's gonna happen.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think China will commit, and that's not just soybeans.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: We we're gonna I think that they're gonna announce uh some approving some beef plants, cotton, corn, so they love Milo, sorghum for for their liquor.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: So, and cotton we'll have to see.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: They've had we've had some.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: Trade issues with cotton, but boy, if they start buying U.S.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: cotton, then you'll get to that 90 cent or above in cotton.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_01: That'd be wonderful.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: Are we are we done with seven?
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: We're done.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: We're done.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: Eight.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Rollins, what we've talked about is she was in Texas today.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: She launched the sterile fly facility in Texas, the brand new facility.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to take a while, but that's a step in the right direction to get a huge number of sterile uh flies, and that's protection 101.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I think once that gets going, that'll just add to the arsenal, Tommy, that that we have to it.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: But but but earlier this week, there was a uh screw worm found in Mexico, 70 to 90 miles from the U.S.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: border.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: It was in a dog, by the way.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: It was not in cattle, you know.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: But the other thing that happened this week is uh Food and Drug Administration authorized actually today the emergency use of four new screw worm treatments.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: So we're getting more tools in the toolbox here to where eventually, when we do uh reopen the border, we'll have some uh you know some science-based uh tools in our arsenal.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: And as you said earlier, Tommy, even when we reopen the border, I think it's gonna happen.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be a phased in.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the market's gonna be surprised of how long it's gonna take to get any appreciable numbers across that border.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: And I think they're initially gonna focus on Arizona ports, so uh it's not gonna be the the downturn in in uh in the market that some people initially feared on this.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: What I will tell you when I was in Virginia this week, Southern, their fear, the cattle producers' biggest fear were two things, they told me.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: One was this this price run up in gasoline and electricity, whether or not that was so significant that it would start cutting into the demand for certain cuts of beef.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: And I heard that from almost every cattle producer I talked to down there.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: The other concern on their part was the the new the the newer entries into the beef industry of how much they have to pay to enter the industry because of the feeder cattle prices, and so there's a uh logistical problem in the years uh ahead on that.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: But but they weren't crying, they were really happy because of the price run up.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: Can I can you do me a favor?
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: Can you promote my friend Mike Sands and your friend?
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: You've known him for 40 years before I did.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_01: But when you are a subscriber and this is before the bell, yeah, yeah.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you're good.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: And but you know, Mike Nezvik, big thanks to Brian Leith and the whole Nesvik crew, but and you met all those guys.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: We do a morning conference call for just Nesvik clients, clients uh Mike Sands, Richard Crowe's on the call, all people you know from your parts.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yes.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: But tell us, promote Mike.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if you need help with cattle, this guy, I would say, is the best in the industry.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: He is, and he's got a radial voice, I'll tell you, doesn't he?
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_01: He's got a oh, he's got the he's got the professor, school teacher yell at you, why isn't your homework done?
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yes, he does, and he knows the fundamentals, he knows the charts, and he knows the psychology of the marketplace.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, he was he worked for Willard Sparks for so many years, and he knows what he's talking about.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_00: He's somebody you can trust.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: You can get him on the on the platform here, and that's just one of the people every single day.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_01: We put out a five-minute, it's a video, but you won't see Mike's face.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's him talking with uh charts and pictures and stuff.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_01: But Mike Sands, just the best in the industry,$25 a month, not just for Mike Sands, you get a lot more than that.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: And I I feel like I just threw a commercial in there, but there's people out there who have signed up all the time for EggBowl Premium just for Mike Sands.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: Value added, value added for sure.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_01: They don't even mention you, Jim.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what's going on here.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: Free.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: Free.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes free is too expensive.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: You ever hear that one?
• 26:23
  unknown: Yes, yeah.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna get in trouble because we're joking around, and I think today's a day to be celebrated.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: I really do.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: We've got a two two slight thing here on round.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: State shares.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: She was she went through the test of testimony.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: They do it every year before the budget.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_00: They have to defend the president's budget, and it she had to defend it because there's some cuts in there.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: But they both bipartisan Democrats and Republicans pressed her on the budget cuts for USDA.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now she defended them as targeted and she said proportionally smaller than the critics are are signaling.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_00: She said the current cuts are right around$9 billion.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: That sounds high it is, but that's about 4% only of the total USDA budget.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, but you're in a Congress, whether or not you're a Democrat or Republican, they don't want to see a cut, they want to see an increase.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: But we're we're we're into the days, Tommy, that we're gonna have to cut funding.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna have to really be targeted spending in the years ahead.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the spin she put on that.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: But the news out of this is she asked the lawmakers to help her get additional borrowing authority for the commodity credit corporation.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, it's capped at$30 billion.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: That sounds like a lot of money, but when you pay the ARC, PLC payments, uh CRP payments, and a host of other things, that's a chunk of money that goes very fast.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: And it the borrowing authority has not been increased.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: She said about 30 years.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: Frankly, I think it was 40 years.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: And she's working with Senator Hovind from uh North Dakota, Kingpin on the appropriations panel in the Senate and others.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_00: And so I would watch that in the months ahead because why is it needed?
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_00: It gives USDA more latitude uh for future ag disaster and market shocks like that Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, that they that they can tap the CCC for funding.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_00: They don't have to have an annual appropriation for that.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's key to watch in the future.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: Commodity Credit Corporation borrowing authority.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: Then she talked about ag trade.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this is a direct quote.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_00: She said, in just one year, we've enacted 18 new trade agreements and we cut the U.S.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: ag trade deficit by 42%.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now I want to put my perspective.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_00: When I when I heard her say that, I go, hmm, now what's that 42% made up?
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's primarily the result of a lot lower imports of horticultural products for because of higher prices, because of tariff uh levels on it.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: And we also have lower exports, so a combination of lower imports really contributed to that cut in that deficit.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: So, but she spun it as well as as any cabinet would any number, cherry picking.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: Then she she uh talked about farmland purchases.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now she warned that she doesn't know there's a more perilous threat, her term, than the international purchasing of our farmland.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: And that's primarily where they usually bring up China.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: We remember when they bought that ground around the Fargo, North Dakota.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: Grand Forks.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: That was Grand Forks, actually.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a that's you really, huh?
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a sensitive issue for both Democrats and Republicans.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: So she did use that phrase on that one.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_00: Then the next uh slide were other topics that she addressed, Tommy.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um the SNAP, the food stamp program, and the women, infants, and children cuts.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, every Democrat questioned whether the Snap and those wick cuts undermined uh the move to healthy food.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: And she said, We're the breadbasket of the world, along with Brazil.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: She said we can't immediately pull some of these crop production tools, protection tools.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, priority, you've got to make sure that you have the safety net involved in order to produce the product that the US and the world need.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_00: So that's how she answered that one.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: Bird flu.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_00: She was asked about the she's still concerned about the avian flu policy.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: What about the vaccine use?
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: And she goes, There's nowhere yet in the world that has proven that a vaccine can be effective.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: Really?
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's what she said.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_00: And she said cases are down 61% of bird flu, and bird losses are down 46% year over year.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's a success story, somewhat.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_00: And specialty crops, you'll recall that when they announced the$12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, it was$11 billion for real crops and$1 billion for specialty crops and sugar.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: And she and she said, you know, we wish we could announce more, but uh she said with limited funding, you've got to prioritize what specialty crops you're going to give it to.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: And they haven't really detailed that yet.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because sign up ends at the end of this month, Tommy.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to get more information about that.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_00: I think we'll say later on, the they only have a billion dollars left to put out to send out under the$11 billion for row crops.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: So uh USDA did a really good job of getting that money out.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: The other topic, sensitive one, was right to repair.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: You want to get into a sensitive issue with far farmers, talk about the right to repair issue.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_00: And she acknowledged there was some sensitive things, and she wants to work with uh lawmakers and equipment manufacturers about this topic.
• 32:06
  SPEAKER_00: So, and there was a bipartisan uh attention, bipartisan Democrats and Republicans, they focused on that issue.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_00: So I think you'll hear more about that in the months ahead.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, we got a little bit of breaking news.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: Can I talk about it real quick?
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: I want to share my screen, see if I could do this right.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: This is interesting.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: This is funny that we've been talking about trade the news, but I just popped it up there.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: Look at that.
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like Jamie from Joe Rogan popping shit up there.
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: See the second line in yellow.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_01: Reportedly, Iran told mediators they plan to limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hamous, and they will charge a toll per Wall Street Journal.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: With that, crude oil popped a little bit here after hours, stock market sold off just a little bit.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: But this deal may not just be over yet, right?
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: No, that's what I said before with with Iran.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: It can flip.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: It can flip.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_00: And see, they're mad at Trump because he said that he will he will uh keep those uh on the on the Iranian border.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_00: He's not going to allow any oil to be shipped from Iran until they have a 100% signed agreement with Iran.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that got them upset, so they're flexing muscles.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_00: But that tells you how fast can change.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_00: Early in their day, you'll recall the the uh an Iranian official said the uh Strait of Harmuz is open for everyone and they're never gonna close it again.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_00: Well, now they're saying that they'll they'll charge you have to you have to pay them that, and that's a no-no with Trump.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_00: He's not gonna go along with that.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_00: So I think this is jaw boning going into the weekend here where we're gonna hopefully get an agreement.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this guy uh poof, he uh he I I I wonder if they took a survey of the world of all the people in the world, and if you asked everyone in the world if he if they knew who he was, I bet you a lot of people know who that man is.
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_01: Love him or hate him.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_01: He is on the top of every paper, every publication, every breaking headline.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I have my opinions about him.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: And when I tell people my opinions, I lose subscribers because yeah, but the the the thing that's unique about you and I doing this podcast is we could tell the truth.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_01: We're not getting paid to lie, yeah.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: And we all get to vote.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_01: And Jim, you get to vote with your pocketbook every day.
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_01: Every day.
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_01: Go vote, folks.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_01: Go sign up.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_01: Got a problem with the USDA, go to that meeting.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_01: You got a problem with this, put your name on the ballot and go run for office.
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_01: All right, that's my speech.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Farm Bill 2.0.
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_01: This is exciting.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a House Committee on Rules may meet the week of April 27th.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_00: You you always start with the rules committee, they have to give you a rule in order to take up legislation on the House floor, and it's going to provide consideration for a floor vote on the farm bill.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I personally think don't think right now they have the votes to approve uh the farm bill, but that's uh yet to be seen.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_00: Now, April 22nd is the deadline for lawmakers to submit amendments.
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now, on any bill, amendments are important, so watch us cover that next week, these number of amendments and which ones are allowed by the rules committee.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_00: So there'll be way a lot more amendments filed that they'll allow to be voted on on the House floor if it ever gets there.
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's a little background for you, Tommy and listeners.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the Senate uh committee still has not released their bill, and John Bozeman, Senate Ag Committee Chairman, said earlier this week, he said they should have text out by the end of this month.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it'll be different than the House Ag Bill, because I think you'll take out some of the controversial provisions that in the that's in the skinny house farm bill.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_00: So that means you have to have a conference.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_00: So it's gonna be a while before we sell what we see Farm Bill 2.0.
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_00: And my bottom line on that still is you need Democratic votes, both in the House and definitely in the Senate, to get the 60, to get out of the 60 votes, because there'll be 30 or more House uh uh uh yeah, House Republicans who won't vote for the bill.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why they need the Democrats.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_00: And the Democrats were gonna see whether or not they want a bill or do they want a congressional issue?
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because increasingly the election year experts, who not who are not always right, but the election year experts are saying almost in force that the Democrats are gonna regain control of the House.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_00: So a Democrat in the House saying, hey, why should I give too much on the House skinny farm bill when I could be in power the next Congress and we can get more of what we want?
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what's it's going to come to either they want to get it through or they want an issue for the elections, Tommy.
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I just went over to Kalshi just to look at the betting services, and they are very much betting Democrats really have a good stand.
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_01: Did we cover everything you need to on the uh farm aid?
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: Farmer aid, yeah.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_00: I said the 1 billion and oh the new program, the new farmer aid proposals going on, yeah.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: In Congress.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: You're giggling.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: The number keeps going up.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, this is just it's just like a a pool uh where you say, you know, it started with uh 15 billion, then it went to 17 billion, and now 20 billion, yeah.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh House Ag Committee Chairman GT Thompson.
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I just when when Senator Grassley was on agri talk this morning, Chip asked him what uh avenue is it going to come about?
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: Because it can't come about in a separate uh vote, it'll be tied to either uh a Iranian war uh spending uh bill or some other must-pass spending bill, and he's right there.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_00: So whether or not uh there is aid fatigue in this town and even in the industry, the minority of farmers and producers say uh that that they they want it from the market.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry, the majority of farmers, of course, want it from the marketplace, and in a way they're getting it right now.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: But they are when but when you look at the cotton, sorghum, and wheat, they are still underwater in many situations on their farm operations.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: We've had the run-up in soybeans.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying they don't need the money, but they won't be selected out.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_00: But there is a debate going on of whether or not Congress, the leadership in Congress is going to allow even more farmer aid.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_00: There will be ag disaster aid for 25 and 26 crops.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_00: I can guarantee you that.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: The farmer aid is still in question, so we're we'll have to monitor that in the weeks and months ahead as well.
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I'll just add some color.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh,$475,$5 corn is not your problem.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_01: Your problem is the cost of production.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: We can go$550 corn.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_01: And if you remember during the Ukraine war, fertilizer was higher then.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: True, but the market was trading a$7 old crop,$8, you know, we shot up.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: So you if don't fix it on Ukraine.
• 39:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, don't fixate on the the price of the futures, fixate on what's it cost you.
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, to get people to grow wheat again, we have to have an eight, a nine, a ten in front of it.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_01: That is, you know, there's a reason we call it you know, wheat's just it's it's some people that's all they can grow on their land, but we call poverty grass here, and uh it's not very funny, but what what what else do you call it, right?
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: True, true.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_01: All right, that let's go to slide 12.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_00: uh Greer is in Mexico Monday.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, he's leaving Sunday.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, they told me this morning, and he'll meet with Mexico's uh top officials, including their president Shinbaum.
• 39:53
  SPEAKER_00: So that's just again more talks going into the US-Mexico-Canada agreement.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_00: It really starts in earnest July 1, but they're going to focus on uh autos, agriculture, and supply chain rules ahead of that former uh formal trade pack review July 1.
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I always like when when trade officials meet with each other, and especially when they get to meet with the country's president, because she's she's been pretty good over there.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_00: She's she's had a more balanced uh approach than what most people thought.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_00: So watch for that one next week as far as any any deliverables coming out of that meeting.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Mexico's been very consistent.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: They're corn buying.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: All right, mid-term elections.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_01: We touched on this a little bit, but a little bit, yeah.
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_00: The Cook Political Report, uh longtime veteran there now, David Wasserman, he's a personal friend of mine, and he was down in Virginia for the three days, and we had a group of us had dinner two two nights or three nights.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: I know two at least, and and then he gave a presentation down there.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: Let me just tell you his bottom line.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_00: On the House, he has been consistent, very confident that the Democrats would regain control of the House as far as how much he's saying they'll have a five-vote spread.
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, they'll have a five-vote majority.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's similar to what the Republicans had after the last election, Tommy.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now, on the and he said whenever a president's rating, because it's a referendum, midterms is on the president, whenever his approval numbers are below 45%, which they are, that usually, not all the time, but that usually means the house is lost from the from the party sitting at the White House.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's the Senate that gets interesting.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_00: He still thinks right now that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate, but it by a very close margin, 51 to 49.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_00: Really?
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_00: The Republicans have 53 seats now.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now, here's the thing that I heard from him that was of note.
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: He said if Trump's approval ratings go under 40, I think they're right at about 40 now.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_00: If they go under 40, then he will increase the odds that the Democrats could take over the Senate.
• 42:11
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what my ear heard during his presentation.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: Then we asked him, who do you think's gonna be the Democratic candidate in 2028?
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_00: Now he's smart and he's saying, Look, June of when President Trump first ran for the presidency, nobody had him on any list prior to his walking down.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_01: I could play tapes of uh who's that guy who makes that smug look uh Trump suit him in one uh the big time reporter.
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_01: The he just laughed anytime someone said Trump's the nominee, he laughed.
• 42:47
  SPEAKER_01: He laughed, and there's clip after clip of that.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_00: So it David's very cautious.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_00: However, once we got into if you had of the probably known candidates now who may run, who do you think now?
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_00: And he he surprised me a little bit.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_00: You know who he said?
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_00: AOC.
• 43:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I've heard that name tossed around.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_00: Think about it.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_00: When Trump, when all those uh Republicans ran with Trump, remember his first his first election?
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_01: Jeb Bush.
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, all of them.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, 13, 14.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_00: Remember all those debates?
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_00: They hadn't had them in two different nights.
• 43:22
  SPEAKER_01: Remember when Trump shish Jeb Bush?
• 43:24
  SPEAKER_01: Jeb was done then.
• 43:25
  SPEAKER_01: He goes, shh, Jeff, quiet.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_00: Here was the secret that Trump had.
• 43:29
  SPEAKER_00: His he's got a solid core of about 20% or so.
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_00: They the the and and the more you have in a in a contest, the better off he was.
• 43:42
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, and he and David thinks ALC could be the same thing.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_00: Her support is solid at 15, 20 or so.
• 43:51
  SPEAKER_00: And the more Democrats that get in, it's actually increases her chances.
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_00: Then I ask him the question Will she run against uh for for the New York Senate race against Chuck Schumer?
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_00: And he goes, What can what can she really gain?
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_00: She's got a voice right now.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_01: in the in the house he didn't see much gain for her running and trying to defeat because it could bring her ill will in in in in in certain uh you know democratic quarters but that was his uh one his prediction right now subject to change in the house the senate and what to look for and as far as the uh the republican nominee of course jd vance has an inside track but marco rubio is really getting some spurs uh uh on right and while you're talking mr jim i'm looking to the right at calci and folks if you're bored and you just like the what we're talking about you you look at cal she every jim's quoting this off his head but you can literally place a bet a real bet on any of this just wild just wild that uh the world we live in and it's legal and it's not legal if you there's some people starting to get in trouble it's just magically how the markets move the CFTC this week said they're gonna look into who magically bought the stock market and sold crude oil before some of these Trump announcements right there's definitely those who know and it's it's it's not us right we see the tape it's called reading the tape right the updates from the tick yeah reading the ticker tape but and you know Tommy I want to say uh I had a couple livestock producers who talked to me after I spoke and said is there any risk management tool financial market that they can hedge geopolitics I'm gonna have a story that'll be on Agble Media next week about that and it's not one thing but you can usually you can you can look at the energy markets you can you know you can do certain things cross hedge I guess but but that came up a number of producers asked me because they said they just what they they just want to hedge they're tired of the geopolitics okay and they want to see if there's a way they can basically hedge.
• 46:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah it kind of reminds me of uh there's an ETF called the SYN etf and if you just buy that etf you're buying alcohol companies tobacco companies and casinos and that's just one bundle you can click and so what to put tie that into what you're talking about what these folks are looking for is hey we're in the sector is there a button we can click to lay off some of this risk is that right Jim that's what they're absolutely asking and then it'll be a combination of things because you usually it affects the energy markets you know and gold and things like that.
• 46:38
  SPEAKER_00: So you can you can do a combination of things I think that'll be in my story but look for it Monday or Tuesday on Agbol Media.
• 46:46
  SPEAKER_00: Very good take us home brother telling you the spirit I heard down in Southern Virginia what prices do to your attitude is unbelievable.
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_00: The the contributions they do for their taxes and community is is just so so positive to see we've got the cotton market as I said about 10 cents away or so of even getting we're getting closer to break even you've got you're you're in what I always call the two season for corn soybeans and wheat too little rain too much rain too little sun too much sun and so we're we'll continue to have volatility but that's needed as uh for for an opportunity to hedge at a profit.
• 47:29
  SPEAKER_00: You ought to know your cost.
• 47:31
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't you're in trouble so and then we've got some issues coming up here that will be market sensitive the May 14th 15th summit between Xi Jinping and President Trump and next week we could come in Monday could we'll be volatile one way or the other will we have an agreement or if we don't then we could just go down and dirty all over again uh on the uh energy uh on the uh as a result of no agreement you'll go up on on energy cost yeah unbelievable week unbelievable time to be alive folks there's never been more access to information we thank you for uh showing up Mr.
• 48:07
  SPEAKER_01: Jim give them a wave goodbye and we'll see you next week yeah