Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 228 - 3/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 228 - 3/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 228 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Monday. The month of March is officially
0:39
here, kicking off the first full week of March.
0:42
And you know what that means? Baseball is right around the
0:44
corner. Pretty soon we'll be able to
0:46
break down MLB games every single day, which I cannot wait
0:49
for. But before we get there, we got
0:51
wall to wall college basketball action.
0:54
This is the time of the year where, of course, college
0:56
basketball really heats up. We actually have conference
0:59
tournaments already fully underway here.
1:01
So it's always the small conferences that start first,
1:03
but we'll get to the big ones later.
1:05
But a lot of the major conferences are finishing up the
1:07
regular season. But before you know it,
1:09
conference tournaments, March Madness, baseball will be back
1:13
anytime the calendar flips from February to March.
1:15
Even though if you're in New England like me, yes, it's
1:17
getting better. You know the snow is melting,
1:20
but it just kind of feels like you know, spring is in the air.
1:23
So gives you kind of some some added invigoration or
1:26
rejuvenation if you're a sports better knowing that spring is is
1:29
pretty much almost here. But anyway, guys, hope you had a
1:32
great weekend. I know it was a good weekend.
1:34
If you had read the sharp report that I write for visa.com or
1:37
follow the all systems go best bet picks from the juice reel
1:41
app, which you can follow for $4.99 a week.
1:45
I don't think that's too expensive for a full week of
1:48
plays and insights. And again, this pod is free.
1:50
I consider following the plays on on Juice Real as basically a
1:54
tip jar. You enjoy the pod, go sign up to
1:56
follow the plays. But overall, great weekend 3 and
1:59
O on Saturday had South Carolina, Colorado State and
2:02
Xavier, one of those very rare days where pretty much they're
2:04
all just lopsided blowouts, which again, doesn't happen
2:08
often. And then Sunday two and one had
2:10
Belmont, Belmont as well as Manhattan.
2:13
And I was a little bit annoyed and always getting greedy.
2:16
But that should have been a sweep yesterday as well because
2:18
North Florida was up big in the first half and they got
2:21
absolutely run over in the second-half against a team that
2:24
was not very good, their opponent there.
2:26
So either way, guys, five in one weekend.
2:29
Let's see if we can continue to roll here and getting off to a
2:32
good start as we kick off the month of March.
2:35
So today we have a huge college basketball slate.
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I have a three pack of plays for you.
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So as always, 3 plays. Let's try to go 2 in one and eek
2:42
out a winning day. But I'm going to take a bit of a
2:44
contrarian approach when it comes to today because I was
2:47
noticing on Twitter and just, you know, ESPN.com, you look at
2:50
the major games today, a lot of people are excited to bet the
2:54
conference tournament that starts today or actually started
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yesterday, the A Sun tournament. And a lot of betters are
2:59
focusing on three big games just on the regular slate with
3:02
Kansas, Houston, Wake Forest, Duke, UCLA, Northwestern.
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I ain't playing any of those. I'm going a little bit deeper
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down, down the well here and looking at three added extra
3:12
games, tiny little matchups. But as always, even though they
3:15
might be small, overlook match matchups from the public, if
3:18
they have good sharp line moves, you can watch them.
3:20
They're on ESPN Plus if you have the app, and you can get that
3:23
live stream. But hopefully there's some value
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here in the smaller games when the majority of the betters are
3:27
looking at the big matchups in the conference tournament.
3:30
Let's take a bit of a contrarian approach and look at some of
3:32
these smaller games which we love.
3:34
Because when you see line movement, I say it all the time
3:37
and not every time it's going to come through, but you see line
3:39
movement in a low bet game added extra game.
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You almost know, you know almost 100% that it's going to be not
3:45
the public moving the number, but sharps who have targeted the
3:48
game. So that being said, three pack,
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let's try to go 2 and one first bet on the board. 7:30 PM
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Eastern Time here tonight Incarnate Word and Northwestern
3:58
State. Now let's set the stage talk
4:00
line movement bet splits, predictions and projections
4:04
models from our friends at rhythm and we have some juice
4:07
reel sharp mush edges as well and they'll give you my play for
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this one. So 730 Incarnate word
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Northwestern state Incarnate word comes in 16 and 14 on the
4:15
year. They've won four straight just
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held off East Texas A&M 75 to 68.
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They covered that game as a four and a half point Rd. favorite.
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Similarly, Northwestern State 14 and 15, but they've won three in
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a row, just took down Houston Christian 61 to 56.
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They covered ironically and off as a four point 4 1/2 point home
4:34
favorite in that one. So what have we seen across the
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board? Will this game open Northwestern
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State Listen as a very short 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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And what are we seeing here? Nothing but consistent one way
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movement in favor of the demons. That's right, Northwestern
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State. Northwestern State open -1 1/2.
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They've now been bet up earlier today when I saw them, they're
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up to -2 1/2. Now I'm seeing them -3 even -3
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1/2. So I love this movement toward
5:00
Northwestern State because again, conference tournaments in
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the air, a lot of big matchups tonight.
5:05
You know, the betting public didn't wake up today and say,
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you know what, I got a bet Incarnate Word, Northwestern
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State. So the fact that we've seen this
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huge move toward Northwestern state -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2 three,
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and now even 3 1/2 tells me smart money has really taken a
5:18
position on the demons in this one.
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Now, Ken Palm does have Northwestern State winning this
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game, but only by two. So if you're laying the three or
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three and a half now, you're not getting great value as a result.
5:28
I went money line here. I got Incarnate Word or sorry, I
5:31
got Northwestern State on the money line a little bit earlier
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today at -140 I did notice that FanDuel is offering Northwestern
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state -154 Why is that important?
5:42
Because some other books are looking at like -165 -, 170.
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So it looks like FanDuel has the best number as of now.
5:48
But I like this money line play again, mitigate some rest.
5:51
Northwestern State wins by 1-2 or three.
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You want to cash your bet, not lose or push a three or three
5:56
and a half. DraftKings has some really good
5:58
splits on Northwestern State. If you look at the money line in
6:01
particular, they're only getting around 70% of bets, but nearly
6:04
80% of dollars tells me one way. Big sharp movement there in a
6:09
low bed obscure game in favor of the demons.
6:11
And again, further evidence of pros looking at Northwestern
6:14
State to win this game straight up on their homecourt.
6:17
Now, Northwestern State does have a couple advantages here,
6:20
in particular defensively. Hopefully they can put the
6:22
clamps on Incarnate Word. But Northwestern State defensive
6:26
efficiency. They ranked two O 2 in the
6:28
country versus three O 6 for Incarnate Word, and they also
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limit their opponents to a better effective field goal
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percentage. They make it tougher on their
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opponents. They rank 112th versus their
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opponent, Incarnate Word ranking 262nd.
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So much better defense. You'll get some home Rd. splits
6:45
which hopefully benefit Northwestern State, but they are
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8 and five at home this year. Incarnate Word only four and
6:50
five on the road. You'll get this play also from
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kind of a fishy standpoint, like Northwestern State is 14 and 15,
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a below 500 team. Incarnate Word is 16 and 14.
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So why is the below 500 team opening as a favorite and
7:04
becoming more of a favorite against a team with a winning
7:07
record? Hopefully conference play, you
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know how you do against your, your rivals and your your
7:12
opponents in your conference. Hopefully that'll benefit
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Northwestern State. Here they are 11 and eight in
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conference play. Incarnate Word is just 9 and 10.
7:20
Lastly, take a look at our friends at Rhythm.
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They have Northwestern state -2.7, so we have an obscure,
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sharp game. Big line, move all toward
7:29
Northwestern state. Really good bet splits.
7:31
We'll protect ourselves and take the money line.
7:34
Good rhythm edge, good defensive stat advantages.
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Home Rd. splits, Northwestern states.
7:38
Checking off quite a few boxes from you guys.
7:40
So again, I played them earlier today -140 on the money line.
7:44
If you're playing them now for pod purposes and timing, you're
7:47
looking at a best number of -154 at FanDuel.
7:51
So let's go Demons second game on the board another 7:30 PM
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Eastern Time matchup Houston Christian at East Texas A&M.
8:00
So let's set the stage here. Houston Christian.
8:02
I've also seen them called Houston Baptist.
8:04
So if there's your book labels them differently, it's the same
8:06
school. But anyway, Houston Christian 12
8:09
and 18 on the year. Not a great record and they've
8:12
dropped five of their last six. They just lost the Northwestern
8:15
state. As we just mentioned 6156 didn't
8:18
cover as a four and a half point Rd. dog.
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However, 12 and 18 is not quite as bad as East Texas A&M, who is
8:26
only four and 26 on the year, one of the worst records in
8:29
college basketball. They've lost seven of their last
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eight. Just came out short against,
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funny enough, Incarnate Word. As we mentioned, 7568 didn't
8:38
cover as a four and a half point home dog.
8:39
So what are you seeing across the market here?
8:41
Well, I think your first inclination is wow.
8:44
You know, Houston Christians 12 and 18, They're only laying 1
8:47
1/2 as an opener against the team.
8:49
That's four and 26. Let's play Houston Christian.
8:52
Sometimes odds, sometimes wise guys, though, they don't really
8:55
fall into that trap of, oh, better record, just play that
8:57
team. But there are sometimes where
8:58
wise guys say, yeah, there actually is value here.
9:00
And that's one of those. This is one of those kind of
9:03
rare games tonight where I feel like pros are not outsmarting
9:06
themselves here. They're playing Houston
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Christian. I don't know if that's a belief
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in Houston Christian or just a fade of how bad East Texas A&M
9:13
is. Either way, Lions go on a
9:15
Houston Christian. This game opened with the
9:17
Huskies as a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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They now been bet up to -2 1/2. So another added game, extra
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game, low bet, obscure sharp line move, clear position taken
9:26
by the sharps in favor of Houston Christian.
9:29
Now if you look at the bets, what's here at DraftKings look
9:32
pretty good for the Huskies, 68% of spread bets, over 80% of
9:36
spread dollars on Houston Christian.
9:38
So low bet game, but pretty good split.
9:41
They're telling us this. The sharper wagers are targeting
9:43
Houston Christian and the fact that the lines moving toward
9:46
Houston Christian and they have that low bets, higher dollar bet
9:49
split, just kind of things are lining up in their favor.
9:51
Looking pretty good now. Ken Palm does have Houston
9:54
Christian winning by two again. You want to lay a 2 1/2 save the
9:57
juice, all the power to you. There's a money line play for
10:00
me. I got Houston Christian a little
10:02
bit earlier today. Around -130 I'm looking at them
10:05
right now. They're close to around -140 at
10:08
a lot of shops. But again, $0.10.
10:11
Of course we all want to save the juice, but wouldn't it be
10:13
annoying if you laid 2 1/2 and Houston Christian one by one or
10:16
two? So this is a money line play for
10:18
me on Houston Christian. They have a pretty good bet
10:21
split as well. 75% of money line bets 87% of money line dollars
10:25
at DraftKings. So further validation of those
10:28
bigger sharper wages going with Houston Christian.
10:31
Houston Christian has a lot of advantages here.
10:33
Makes sense because East Texas is so bad, but in particular a
10:36
few that jumped out to me. Houston Christian has the better
10:39
offensive efficiency, 255th in the country versus 300 and 38th
10:44
for East Texas. Better defensive efficiency,
10:47
254th versus 281. Better free throw percentage
10:51
could be huge in a close game. Hopefully it's not close.
10:54
Hopefully Houston Christian rolls, but whatever it takes for
10:57
a win. 70% at the free throw stripe versus 65% for East Texas
11:02
and you'll get Houston Christian.
11:04
They take much better care of the ball.
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They ranked 239th and turnover percentage doesn't sound great,
11:09
but East Texas, they might be dead last in all of college
11:11
basketball. They ranked 362nd.
11:14
You also look at some fade opportunities of East Texas.
11:18
Again, they are one of the worst teams in college hoops.
11:21
They're 3 and 10 at home. They're 2 and 17 in conference
11:26
play. Our friends at Rhythm have
11:28
Houston Christian -2.4. So Long story short, looks
11:32
obvious. Just fade A-Team, that's four
11:33
and 26. But the market is moving toward
11:36
Houston Christian. We got a good bet split.
11:38
We got a lot of stat advantages. We have Ken Palm and Rhythm
11:42
telling us that they should win by about two.
11:44
So there's a money line play for me.
11:45
Let's go Houston Christian on the money line.
11:48
I got them at -130 again, right now you're looking closer to
11:52
probably around -140 last bit of the night, 8:00 Eastern Time,
11:57
Nichol State at Lamar. Now coming into this one, we
12:01
have Nichol State, 19 and 11 on the year.
12:03
They're playing well. They won four straight, just
12:05
crushed Steven Austin 94 to 70 easily one outright as a 1 1/2
12:09
point Rd. dog. Meanwhile, Lamar 18 and 12.
12:13
They've dropped two in a row though, and just came up short
12:15
against McNeese State 68606866. But McNeese, I believe, leads us
12:20
this conference of Southland. They're really good.
12:23
You have Lamar plus 9 1/2 at home in that one.
12:25
So they did cover even though they lost by two.
12:28
What do you see across the market?
12:29
Well, this one's interesting because I liked Lamar earlier
12:32
today. I got them at around -125 on the
12:35
money line. They open -1 1/2 and they really
12:38
didn't move off of -1 1/2. But you did notice they got up
12:41
as high as 2 1/2 earlier this morning and they came back down
12:45
to 1 1/2. So I'm like, OK, sneaky movement
12:48
toward Lamar. I like the bet splits on Lamar,
12:51
66% of spread bets, 80% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
12:56
Again in a very low back game. But then it was kind of hanging
12:59
1 1/2 and at one point I saw, I thought it may even get down to
13:02
1 and I got a little nervous. Well, guess what?
13:06
After I jumped on Visen with Stormy and did some work, I went
13:11
back and checked the line and much to my delight, the line
13:14
jacked up further toward Lamar. Lamar is now back up to -2 1/2.
13:19
Some books, even juice, like they may even go to three.
13:22
So it's been kind of a weird like early move to Lamar came
13:25
back down. Now it's shot back up.
13:28
Never really got down to one. It's never gotten down to a pick
13:30
em. But I really like the fact that
13:32
later in the, you know, early afternoon, mid to late
13:35
afternoon, you saw further steam in favor of Lamar.
13:38
Tells me that again, you had some late afternoon sharp action
13:42
hit Lamar. Lamar is projected to win by two
13:45
points from Ken Palm. So I did money line them earlier
13:47
today -125 now you're looking at Lamar as high as I think -140 -.
13:53
145 ish. Lamar does have a bunch of stat
13:56
advantages really in particular defensively.
13:58
They have the much better defensive efficiency, 121 in the
14:01
country versus 196 for Nichol State, better offensive rebound
14:05
percentage 35% versus 31%, better three-point shooting 37%
14:11
versus 36% and free throw shooting 70% versus 69%.
14:16
You also look at some other kind of supplementary angles here in
14:19
favor of Lamar. One is a classic just value
14:21
play, buy low, sell high. You're buying low on Lamar
14:24
because they've lost two straight.
14:26
You're selling high on Nichol State because they've won four
14:28
in a row. Cardinals have been really good
14:30
at home nine and four on the year.
14:32
This is a team I played before, so I kind of actually know a
14:35
little about a little bit about Lamar.
14:37
Hopefully they can come through once again here for us tonight.
14:39
But one last supplementary factor or hopefully motivational
14:43
edge for Lamar is that tonight is senior night, and I noticed
14:47
that Lamar has four seniors and three of them are starters who
14:50
play a ton of minutes. So you're capping off your
14:52
college career, you're going to get some flowers, your parents
14:55
are going to walk you out to center court.
14:57
Hopefully that's a little bit of a bonus.
14:58
Little little, little more juice tonight to win your last game on
15:01
your homecourt for Lamar. Lastly, looked at Rhythm.
15:05
Rhythm has Lamar -2.7, so again, kind of stayed -1 1/2.
15:10
Lamar then shot back up in the afternoon.
15:12
We got Ken Palm and Rhythm saying this should be a 2 or a
15:14
three-point win. Let's hope that Lamar can get a
15:17
win for us on their homecourt on senior night.
15:20
And they got a big man, Hamilton, who I've watched
15:21
before, he's pretty good, so hopefully he plays well.
15:24
But I got Lamar -125 in the money line again as high as -145
15:28
right now. So Houston Christian,
15:32
Northwestern State and Lamar, 3 money lines tonight.
15:35
Let's see if we can go 2IN1 eke out a winning day.
15:38
So that about does it for episode 228 of the All Systems
15:42
Go Sports Betting podcast. This is the part of the pod
15:44
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
15:48
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
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busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
15:53
sharp constrained breakdowns with me.
15:55
As always, if you do enjoy the pod and I hope that it is
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insightful and beneficial and helpful and you feel like you're
16:01
reading the market and making sharper bets.
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If that is the case, can you do me a solid and give this podcast
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It would go a long way to helping us to continue to grow
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If you do want to click the follow button, that'll be great.
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That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
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Also, if you want to recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is
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always great as well. I feel like you kind of you kind
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of give things that more of a chance when someone that you
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respect or know recommends it to you.
16:37
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, looking at
16:41
the market, analyzing the line movement, figuring out where the
16:44
lines moving, what it means, you know, trying to be on the sharp
16:47
side, looking at bet split system matches, taking a
16:50
contrarian perspective. If any of this has kind of
16:53
intrigued you or you see the value of it or you want to let
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me know you appreciate this model that maybe I've, you know,
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presented to you over. Maybe this is your first pod or
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your two 128th pod. But if you enjoy the pod, you
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want to learn more about data-driven betting or there's
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someone in your life who love sports betting and loses a lot
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and just needs a, needs a little bit of a hand, you know what you
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should do? You should buy my book for
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But First off, if you're brand new to betting, you got to start
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it's a kind of app that really just gives you more confidence
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when you're making a play, whether you want to blindly tail
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the top recommended plays or use them as the cherry on top, which
18:44
I do. Rhythm is all always great.
18:46
And we will have a rhythm live stream tomorrow.
18:48
Tuesday is a college hoops live stream, so that'll be 4:00 on on
18:52
Twitter. But then also you got to
18:54
download juice real juice real great for their Robo Jackson
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best bet picks. You can follow the all systems
18:59
go best bet picks for 499 a week.
19:02
I'll tweet that out as I do every late afternoon from my
19:05
account at Josh under score insights.
19:07
You can always go to find juice or socials social tab, find
19:11
juicers and you can plug in ASG under score podcast.
19:14
We also get the sharp mush indicators, making sure you're
19:17
on the sharp side of every bet based on people who have synced
19:20
up their sports books to the app as well as the arbitrage plays.
19:25
Shopping for the best line futures.
19:27
Our guy Stefan Castle had another big night last night.
19:30
I think he's like up to -150 -, 175 for rookie of the year.
19:34
So that's great to see. But Juice Reel does a great job
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So download rhythm, download Juice Reel.
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There's a 7 day free trial for both.
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Then you'll be off and running. Of course, if you need a live
19:47
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19:53
Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
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You got to add that slash josh.123@theendoddslogic.com/josh
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trial of Odds Logic, which again is the best live odds platform
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around. And really in particular, I know
20:09
I mentioned this yesterday and I tweeted it out, but it's got
20:12
both Pinnacle and Circa as two sports books you can put on your
20:14
live odds page. And those are the two kind of
20:17
sharpest global market setting books.
20:19
So when they start to move. You kind of know the markets
20:21
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20:25
know, not not ready to adjust. Like example, I was looking at a
20:28
game. It was one of the games here
20:30
today, but I want to say maybe it was Lamar.
20:32
They were like -1 1/2 at -115 but Pinnacle is moving to -2 So
20:38
I went and, you know, kind of slid down the live odds page and
20:41
found the cheapest money line price on Lamar from a book that
20:45
was still like -1 1/2 - 110. So really, shopping for the best
20:49
line is great with odds logic. Again, that's odds
20:52
logic.com/josh 123. So that about does it for
20:57
today's pod on a big Monday. See if we can eke out a winning
21:00
night with three plays here for tonight in college hoops.
21:04
But as always, I'm gonna leave you with a couple things.
21:06
Whether you have a five in one weekend, A1 in five weekend,
21:08
three and two, two and three, six and OO and six again, the
21:12
model of the blueprint never changes.
21:15
But I would love for you guys to show up and let me know that
21:19
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
21:22
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
21:25
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
21:28
Park Casino or MGM in Springfield or the Nash, which
21:31
is actually opening 2 days from now, which will be my new
21:34
closest sports book. Nashua, NH.
21:36
It looks great. Drove by it the other day about
21:38
to have their their official opening.
21:40
Or if you're out in the desert, which I love to visit every time
21:43
I can at the at the South point with lowest juice possible is
21:48
found where Billy Walters sends his wise guys number runners or
21:52
at the great circa sports book jumping in the stadium swimming
21:56
pool, cashing a big ticket at the end of the night, wherever
21:58
it may be. You're going to show me after
22:00
this weekend, South Carolina, Colorado State, Xavier Belmont,
22:03
Manhattan, just don't show me North Florida.
22:06
You know things are going well and you have a good weekend when
22:08
you're annoyed that you didn't go 6 and O because North Florida
22:11
blew it and I couldn't believe they they were up by like 10 at
22:15
half and then they got outscored by like 30 in the second-half.
22:18
So what are you going to do? But anyway, guys, first one's on
22:20
me next one's on you. We're going to post about the
22:22
book sweat Sharp contrarian plays all night long.
22:25
So wish you the best luck everyone.
22:27
As always, stay sharp, stay contrarian bet against the
22:30
public place yourself on the side of the house.
22:31
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
22:34
Will smart money win every time? Of course not because nothing's
22:37
a locker or a guarantee in sports betting.
22:39
Sports betting is difficult. It's hard to consistently win
22:42
each day. We got to overcome the juice, we
22:44
got to overcome the razor sharp lines, the odds maker set, we
22:47
got to avoid bad beats and refs screwing us and you know, human
22:50
errors and all that kind of stuff.
22:52
But it doesn't mean that sports betting is impossible.
22:54
So we can stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, never
22:57
get too high or too low, manage our bankroll with some
23:00
discipline if we can, make sure that we are against the public,
23:02
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
23:06
that COV. If we can do that, we're going
23:08
to be successful sports betters. So have a great money night
23:11
everybody. We'll be right back at it
23:13
tomorrow for a big Tuesday. That'll be episode 229 of the
23:16
All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:20
Good luck everybody and enjoy your Monday night.