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The 3 Factors That Will Decide Ohio State vs. Oregon · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to buck Eyes Tomorrow Morning for Tuesday, October eighth.
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  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Tom Moore. The Oregon game in four days,
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  Speaker 1: the game against Michigan in fifty three days. Unsurprisingly, we're
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  Speaker 1: going to be focusing much more on that organ game
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  Speaker 1: than on the game against Michigan. This is a big
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  Speaker 1: game week for the Buckeyes. Kind of feels a little
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  Speaker 1: like Michigan week. That might be a little sacrilegious to say,
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  Speaker 1: but the excitement around Columbus is palpable this week. Today,
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  Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about the three factors that
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  Speaker 1: might really decide who wins this Ohio State organ game.
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  Speaker 1: Points spread, very tight, Buckeyes favored by about three points,
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  Speaker 1: should be a really good game. Joined by Tony gerdermanfucke
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  Speaker 1: huddle dot Com Today, Tony, the first bet, the first
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  Speaker 1: positional matchup that I want to look at is just
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  Speaker 1: can Ohio State win in the trenches? Can the Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State offensive line beat the Oregon defensive line. The Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State offensive line has looked pretty darn good this year.
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  Speaker 1: The Orgon defensive line has some definite difference makers, especially
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  Speaker 1: in the past rush, but it feels like if the
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State offensive line can just sort of hold, serve
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  Speaker 1: or win slightly. They don't need to run for eight
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  Speaker 1: yards of carry or anything like that. If they can
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  Speaker 1: run for four and a half yards of carry and
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  Speaker 1: keep Will Howard upright, that feels like that might be
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  Speaker 1: the single biggest factor that goes into which team wins
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  Speaker 1: this game.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that average also depends on how many home
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  Speaker 2: runs are there. If it's a five point two yard
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  Speaker 2: per carry and there are no home runs, that's a
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  Speaker 2: winning number for me for Ohio State. In terms of
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  Speaker 2: running the balls, it's just consistently staying on schedule, being
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  Speaker 2: efficient and effective. We've seen them all season long. They've
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  Speaker 2: they five point three yards per carry against Michigan State,
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  Speaker 2: five point one against Iowa. But it was an effective number,
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  Speaker 2: and it was a number that was higher over the
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  Speaker 2: first three quarters and then things kind of slow down
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  Speaker 2: because you're just running the clock out and the defense
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  Speaker 2: knows it. I look at what Oregon has been able
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  Speaker 2: to do to do defensively, and when you look at
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  Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball
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  Speaker 2: for Oregon, but defensively, they faced one really good rushing
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  Speaker 2: attack that is Boise State facing the best running back
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  Speaker 2: in the nation, and they gave up two hundred and
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  Speaker 2: twenty one yards rushing six point seven yards per carry
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  Speaker 2: everybody else. They've essentially shut down Oregon State rush for
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  Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty one yards against them, but UCLA
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  Speaker 2: forty seven yards Michigan State fifty nine yards. Not really
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  Speaker 2: effective running games from either of those schools, regardless of
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  Speaker 2: the opponent. So it's interesting that Oregon's defense has kind
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  Speaker 2: of done what they're supposed to do, But I don't
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  Speaker 2: know that they've imposed their will completely on anybody to
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  Speaker 2: this point. They're supposed to stop Michigan State and UCLA.
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  Speaker 2: You're supposed to be better than they were against Boise State.
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  Speaker 2: Boise State was able to run the ball. So I
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  Speaker 2: would like to see if Oregon's defense and the line
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  Speaker 2: of scrimmage can just keep from giving ground, because when
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  Speaker 2: they faced a running attack that is potent, they couldn't.
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  Speaker 2: Can they do it this week?
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  Speaker 1: Well, it feels like they're going to face a pretty
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  Speaker 1: potent rushing attack this week, and if that rushing attack
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  Speaker 1: remains potent for the Buckeyes, that might be the single
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  Speaker 1: biggest thing that helps keep Will Howard in clean pockets
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  Speaker 1: because we have seen some real, real nasty looking pass
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  Speaker 1: rushes from the Oregon Ducks. Aiden Chiles was straight up
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  Speaker 1: not having a good time on Friday Night between Birch
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  Speaker 1: and Uyunglowa coming off the edges. The tackles for Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State have been good, feels like should be okay in
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  Speaker 1: most games, but this is definitely gonna be the steepest
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  Speaker 1: challenge they face. If they're able to run the ball,
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  Speaker 1: that probably helps with the pass pro The pass rush
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  Speaker 1: forces Oregon to make some difficult choices.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And they had four sacks against USLA,
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  Speaker 2: five against Michigan State in the past two weeks. But
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  Speaker 2: you go back to that Boys State game when there
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  Speaker 2: was a running game, they only had one sack against
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  Speaker 2: Broncos quarterback. So if they can control that line of
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  Speaker 2: scrimmage and then maybe when you're bringing more into stop
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  Speaker 2: the run, then we know there's the play action that
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  Speaker 2: what will be effective has been effective the intermediate stuff
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  Speaker 2: Worwill Howard, But yeah, if they can keep him clean,
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  Speaker 2: then there's really at this point, what can't the Ohio
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  Speaker 2: State offense do because we assume they will be able
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  Speaker 2: to run it effectively enough I don't see them getting
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  Speaker 2: shut down. If they get shut down, then all bets
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  Speaker 2: are completely off on what the passing game will do.
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  Speaker 2: But with the offensive line winning and Josh Simmons I
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  Speaker 2: think a left tackle, people are very confident in him.
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  Speaker 2: We've seen Josh Bryer have his ups and downs at
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  Speaker 2: right tackle. It'll be interesting to see if they attack
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  Speaker 2: him in some ways. And then also they get pressure
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  Speaker 2: up up the middle as well from their defensive tackles.
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  Speaker 2: So that's that's gonna be something for Seth McLoughlin at center,
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  Speaker 2: Thankerson Bullet right guard, Donovan Jackson at left guard. All
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  Speaker 2: of these guys will have certainly their opposition against the
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  Speaker 2: pass and I'm interested to see how it goes for
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  Speaker 2: up to Cclaughland, who I just saw was the highest
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  Speaker 2: rated center for PFF this past weekend. So what can
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  Speaker 2: he do against what will be his biggest test to date.
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  Speaker 1: So that's factor number one. Factor number two. We're just
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  Speaker 1: we're not going far. We're just sort of flipping the
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  Speaker 1: field here. How does the Ohio State defensive line hold
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  Speaker 1: up against the Oregon offensive line? Because if the Ducks
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  Speaker 1: can run the ball, this is real old school football
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  Speaker 1: coach talk. I remember, you know, Earl Bruce being in
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  Speaker 1: the press box at Ohio State, you know, a decade
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  Speaker 1: or so back, and you know, his big thing was
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  Speaker 1: always who wins the line of scrimmage. He was like,
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  Speaker 1: all right, all right, yeah, we know, we know, we know,
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  Speaker 1: but this is one of these games where, yes, this
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  Speaker 1: is really you win the game and lose the game
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  Speaker 1: in the trenches. Can the Buckeye defensive line hold up
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  Speaker 1: against the Oregon offensive line, especially in the run game. Yes,
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  Speaker 1: can they get to the quarterback Dalan Gabriel when Oregon's
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  Speaker 1: throwing the ball, But really, can Jordan James run the ball?
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  Speaker 1: Will Jordan James have holes? Because he had one hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifty yards in the first half against Michigan State,
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  Speaker 1: and there were a bunch of times when he didn't
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  Speaker 1: get touched till he was five six yards downfield. If
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  Speaker 1: he has that kind of a game against Ohio State,
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  Speaker 1: that is going to be a big, big thing that
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  Speaker 1: pushes the needle towards an Oregon win instead of an
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State win. You look at the stats, this Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State defensive defense on the whole and defensive line has
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  Speaker 1: been pretty good. They've got generated a lot of pressure
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  Speaker 1: on the quarterbacks over the last few weeks haven't necessarily
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  Speaker 1: hasn't necessarily always translated into sacks. They have had a
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  Speaker 1: couple had some key turnovers thats they've forced. Can this
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State defensive line tony at least they don't need
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  Speaker 1: to win, but they need to not lose, I think
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  Speaker 1: is kind of how I'm looking at this one.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and you look right now. Ohio State, I believe,
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  Speaker 2: has the number three rush defense in the nation. That's
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  Speaker 2: both both in yards per game and average carry yard
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  Speaker 2: per carry allowed. And I was looking to see when
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  Speaker 2: most of their yards have been given up, because we
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  Speaker 2: know the thirty yarder that they gave up in the
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  Speaker 2: fourth quarter against Iowa was to the second team defense.
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  Speaker 2: But so they've given up three hundred and sixty three
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  Speaker 2: yards this season on one hundred and sixty one carries.
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  Speaker 2: Two hundred and nineteen of those yards have come with
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  Speaker 2: Ohio State up by fifteen or more points, which generally
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  Speaker 2: means the second half the fourth quarter, and so over
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  Speaker 2: half of their carries allowed have come with Ohio State
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  Speaker 2: up by more than two touchdowns, and then two thirds
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  Speaker 2: of their rushing yards Basically, while Ohio State has a
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  Speaker 2: comfortable lead, and yet even with that comfortable lead, those
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  Speaker 2: carries where the opponents are making most of their hey
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  Speaker 2: if you will, two point six yards per carry allowed
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  Speaker 2: in those instances. So even with some of the the
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  Speaker 2: bigger runs that have come later in the game, it's
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  Speaker 2: still a very low average for the opposition. And then
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  Speaker 2: you look at Organ's running game. I want which is
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  Speaker 2: the real Organ running game. We know they struggled against
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  Speaker 2: Idaho to start the season, one hundred and seven yards,
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  Speaker 2: one hundred nine yards against Boise State. There are all
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  Speaker 2: kinds of questions like what's going wrong with the Organ
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  Speaker 2: running game? And then they exploded for two hundred and
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  Speaker 2: forty yards against Oregon State. Everything's fixed right well Oregon State.
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  Speaker 2: Then the next week goes out and allows two hundred
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  Speaker 2: and sixty three yards rushing to Purdue and then one
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  Speaker 2: hundred and seventy six yards rushing to Colorado State. So
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  Speaker 2: this is another example of Oregon basically just doing what
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  Speaker 2: they're allowed to do, like being allowed to do this.
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  Speaker 2: Ohio State hasn't allowed people to run on them, and
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  Speaker 2: so if Oregon is only doing what they're allowed to
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  Speaker 2: do so far this season, can they run the ball.
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  Speaker 2: I know, we know they're going to try. Jordan James
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  Speaker 2: is a very good running back. That Whittington. They've got
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  Speaker 2: other guys there as well, But they need to impose
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  Speaker 2: their will and that hasn't happened against Ohio State yet.
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  Speaker 2: Iowa got like the bulk of their carries or the
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  Speaker 2: bulk of their runs, basically three carries in that game
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  Speaker 2: against Ohio State. Not only does Oregon need a couple
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  Speaker 2: of home runs, you know, some thirty yard or something
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  Speaker 2: like that, they need a lot of six yarders on
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  Speaker 2: first and ten, and if they don't get those, then
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  Speaker 2: that pass rush gets dialed up as well. So I'm
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  Speaker 2: just interested to see if Oregon can impose their will
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  Speaker 2: in the running game and how Ohio State will handle
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  Speaker 2: that if they do.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, one of my favorite stats to look at is
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  Speaker 1: from the College Football Nerds, and it's sort of relative
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  Speaker 1: performance to what the opponent typically does. So if you
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  Speaker 1: run for five yards per carry against a team that
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  Speaker 1: typically allows four, that's a really good performance. If you
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  Speaker 1: run for five yards per carry against a team that
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  Speaker 1: typically allows six, that's not a good performance, even though
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  Speaker 1: they're both five yards per carry. Oregon is twenty third
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  Speaker 1: in the nation in relative performance in rushing yards per
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  Speaker 1: game and thirteenth in the nation in rushing yards per attempt.
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  Speaker 1: So that's a pretty solid run game. It's a team
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  Speaker 1: where you sort of, if you adjust for the defenses,
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  Speaker 1: it's a pretty still good running game and seemingly has
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  Speaker 1: gotten better as the season has gone along. We've talked
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  Speaker 1: about that that swap out at center that they made
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  Speaker 1: in the middle of that Boise State game. That feels
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  Speaker 1: like that is really potentially a very low key defining
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  Speaker 1: moment in that in that season. Speaking of low key
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  Speaker 1: defining moments, Tony, these are maybe not even low key
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  Speaker 1: defining moments. The third thing that really could decide this
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  Speaker 1: game is just which quarterback makes the big mistake. It's
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  Speaker 1: really interesting how Dylan Gabriel and Will Howard have very
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  Speaker 1: similar kind of stories. Both transferred in this year from
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  Speaker 1: Big twelve schools. Both veteran guys who are not necessarily
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  Speaker 1: Heisman contenders at their previous schools, but have sort of
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  Speaker 1: been brought in to be solid, reliable. They don't have
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  Speaker 1: to win the game necessarily, but they can't lose the game.
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  Speaker 1: They've both had some moments where they've made great plays
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  Speaker 1: they've both had a couple throws they want back. It
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  Speaker 1: feels like they've kind of had like one or two
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  Speaker 1: throws a game that was like, ooh, that's not going
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  Speaker 1: to be fun in the film room. Dylan Gabriel turned
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  Speaker 1: the ball over twice on interceptions in the red zone
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  Speaker 1: against Michigan State. And you know, it seems a little
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  Speaker 1: reductionist to say they don't necessarily need to win the game.
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  Speaker 1: They just can't lose the game both of these quarterbacks.
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  Speaker 1: But if one of these quarterbacks throws a pick six,
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to say that team probably loses. That Is
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  Speaker 1: that overly simplistic here.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I do think that will increase the odds. Like
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  Speaker 2: when you block a punt. How Urban my io would
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  Speaker 2: always say, like ninety percent of the teams when you
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  Speaker 2: block a punt win a game. That's really going to
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  Speaker 2: increase your graverage. But I do think there are going
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  Speaker 2: to be some scores in this one. But losing, losing
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  Speaker 2: one of those possessions and then giving up a score
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  Speaker 2: to the defense is not going to be any kind
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  Speaker 2: of recipe for success for any offense. And when I
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  Speaker 2: look at these two guys, it's going to be very
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  Speaker 2: interesting to see who gets the closest to crossing the
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  Speaker 2: line from making the play that wins the game, doing
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  Speaker 2: everything you can, going above and beyond to win the game,
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  Speaker 2: and then oh, you've done too much. You shouldn't have
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  Speaker 2: done that, you should have slid rather than trying to
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  Speaker 2: die for a first down. You shouldn't have tried to
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  Speaker 2: thread that needle with that pass, and now you've given
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  Speaker 2: the ball back to the opposition. So these are two
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  Speaker 2: guys that really really want to win this game, looking
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  Speaker 2: for some big wins for their respective resumes, and so
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  Speaker 2: they're going to do everything they can and they'll run,
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  Speaker 2: they'll try to get every single yard they can. But
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  Speaker 2: through all this, while they're being aggressive and attacking, they
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  Speaker 2: still have to be I think, above all else smart.
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  Speaker 2: And it'll be interesting when we talk to Ryan day
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  Speaker 2: Tip Kelly, like, do you want somebody to be smart
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  Speaker 2: or do you want them to give everything they've got,
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  Speaker 2: Because the answer is going to be I want them
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  Speaker 2: to give smartly everything they've got. And whoever, And you
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  Speaker 2: look at Dylan Gabriel. He's thrown three interceptions this season.
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  Speaker 2: He's thrown six each of the past two years. Each
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  Speaker 2: season throws six. He is not a turnover guy, but
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  Speaker 2: all three of his interceptions so far the season have
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  Speaker 2: come in Big Ten in two Big Ten games, so
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  Speaker 2: you know, I don't expect him to be a turnover
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  Speaker 2: machine in this one. I do wonder how careful each
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  Speaker 2: of them will will be thinking in their minds. I
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  Speaker 2: can't be eric with anything, so does that make them
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  Speaker 2: more cautious which then slows them down a little bit.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's fascinating how each of these quarterbacks will
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  Speaker 2: operate in this game. Kind of have to block everything
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  Speaker 2: out and just go attack it. But then also, hey,
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  Speaker 2: don't screw it up, bub.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, just do everything right and don't do anything wrong.
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  Speaker 1: What a game plan. That's thank you, coach Gerdaman. That's
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  Speaker 1: a that's a winning game plan for sure. If if
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  Speaker 1: the guys just go out there and execute it, feel
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  Speaker 1: good about your chances. If not, you can give the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Hugh Freeze postgame speech about how it's everyone's fault but
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  Speaker 1: you're own. Listen, this is sounds win win to me.
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  Speaker 1: And if if you lose, well there's always that buy out.
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  Speaker 1: But we hope you, hope you will not fire Tony
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and and me. This week, we've got a lot of
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: stuff coming up this week, a lot of coverage. We've
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: already been dropping some bonus shows in the Buckeyes Tomorrow.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Morning Feed did an extra Buckeye Weekly show on for
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: you on Sunday looking at the Oregon Michigan State game
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: and some big takeaways from that. We're gonna have a
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: lot more coming up this week as well. We're going
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: to be on our way out to Eugene, Oregon on Thursday.
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  Speaker 1: Got a lot of stuff before then. I'm gonna be
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: talking to the Buckeyes on Tuesday and then again on
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Wednesday night, heading on a plane out there on Thursday.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: We'll have coverage if the airlines are willing and the
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: weather permits, We'll have coverage from out in Oregon starting
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: for you late Thursday afternoon, early Thursday evening, and then
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: all day Friday, all day Saturday. Lots of coverage leading
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: up to the game. I'm really excited to see this campus,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: really excited to see the stadium, really excited to see
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  Speaker 1: this game. There's a lot of stuff that is going
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  Speaker 1: to be brand new to Ohio State. And oh yes,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: by the way, it's number two versus number three in
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  Speaker 1: the country. Pretty big game. As it turns out, we've
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: been sort of been anticipating that for a while and
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  Speaker 1: now it's here. Cannot wait, I can don't like to
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  Speaker 1: That will do it for today. Thank you guys all,
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  Speaker 1: for joining us, have a great day. We'll talk to
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  Speaker 1: you tomorrow.