Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - If You Missed Palantir or Nvidia. This is Far Bigger. + Stock Market News 14 August 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - If You Missed Palantir or Nvidia. This is Far Bigger. + Stock Market News 14 August 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: About a year ago, Winston and I put three stocks in front of you on this very channel.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: One of them had turned$10,000 into$115,000 had you bought it.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna say that number again because I think it deserves it.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: $115,000 from just 10.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Most people work years to save that.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now the second stock that Winston mentioned did 827% gains, and the third at 180%, which sounds rubbish, doesn't it?
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: Terrible pick.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: And it tells you something about how mad this whole thing got.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: And then there was a fourth one that I said, I wouldn't buy this right now.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: I said, look, I like this company, but I'm not touching it until it breaks$20.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: So I waited.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: And guess what?
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: It never broke$20.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's sitting at 18 in a bit right now.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: So if you listened, you didn't lose anything, which honestly is better than most people who jumped in did.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now these were all quantum stocks.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to be really clear about something before we go further because I know the reaction.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Quantum, oh, here we go, sci-fi nonsense, magic beans, that sort of stuff.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: The reason those stocks moved is that this is one of the biggest shifts in computing since the uh transistor radio.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And the people writing the checks for these stocks are not YouTubers, they're governments.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: And they're the biggest cloud companies on earth, which brings me to the last three months.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: The last three months have been the best three months in quantum history.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: The chief executive of Google went on camera and said quantum today is where artificial intelligence was five years ago.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Oracle, three days ago, physically installed a quantum computer inside one of its cloud data centers.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: And back in May, the American government put about$2 billion into nine of these companies, not as a grant, not as a subsidy, but they bought a piece of them.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: They took shares.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Same thing they did with chips.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Same thing it did with the rare earths.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: So best three months as injuries at ever.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: So best three months as industry has ever seen, not even close.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: And the stocks, I and Q is down 2% since that video.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: D-Wave is up 2%, Reggetti is up 6%.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's it.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Three months of the best news quantum computing has ever seen, and the share price has just sat there like this guy is sleeping on the floor.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: And all of them, every single one is still somewhere between 45 and 70% below where it was last October.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, I may first made a video on this last summer.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: So either the market hasn't noticed, or there's something else going on.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now I think it's the second one, and I'm going to show you why.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Fair warning though, this is going to be, this is going to be a little bit dense.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to take you through what actually changed the three quantum stocks I might want to own right now, the one I'm dropping from the list, and the one I told you to wait on and still haven't bought, and then, and this is the bit that matters more than any of the picks.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: What happened in October last year?
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: That most people who own these stocks still haven't worked out.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a lot to cover here, right?
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: So we are going to put a whole research report out there for you.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Fully updated.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Every company, every number, the charts, it's free.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: There's a link in the description and it's pinned in the comments, so go go go and grab it.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, you should thank Winston for that because even though he's snoozing down there, lazy bugger, you of course did all the hard work.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a quick reminder where we were.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna leave it alone because I'm not here to do, you know, a lap of honor.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm so great.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: But last summer I wrote a thread.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: I put a YouTube video out about quantum stocks.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Morgan Stanley had just put out a report saying this market could go a hundred times over.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I picked three ways in.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Two of them were the obvious ones.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: The third one was Honeywell, which nobody wanted to talk about because Honeywell is a boring industrial company that makes, you know, thermostats and stuff like that really, really boring.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: But Honeywell comes back later in this video in a genuine way you might not expect.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: And then in May this year, I did the full breakdown, again, three stocks again, how much they'd all gone up by, and I spent half of that video warning that the gains were the easy part.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Look at this on this screen here.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: These things are up or were up massive amounts, 800%, 1,000%.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: And then they're down 45, 50%, almost 70% from the top, which means a lot of people bought them near the high, and a lot of people who bought them early never sold, and they're still sitting there today staring at that great big, ugly red number.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Minus 70% down.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: That really is a kick in the nuts.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: So the picks worked.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: And yet most people still ended up out of pocket.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the pick nobody wants to talk about.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that is a problem almost every single investor runs into over and over again.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's happened to you, right?
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you've ever bought something, watched it go up, and then watched it crash all the way back down, maybe even lost money on it.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Put the ticker in the comments down below.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Go on, share it, because you're absolutely not the only one.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it will help everybody realize this is a common thing.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not just a nitwit.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: No, it is very common.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody does it.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Winston down here, you have to trust me that he's still down there.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: He has a solution for that.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's a simple one.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's the selling rule book that Wall Street's been sitting on for the last 50 years.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: And we're going to give it to you.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to run the when to sell training live and free in a way we've never done before.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's at a time that'll work for you if you were in America.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: It'll work for you or if you were in the Soviet states of Europe or even in the formerly Great Britain.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's probably the last time we're going to do this this year, because nobody teaches this and nobody really wants to learn this.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: But everybody wants to teach you how to buy, right?
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: But nobody really teaches you when to sell, and people lose an absolute fortune on avoidable mistakes.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: When we can fix it with you in about an hour or two.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: So come and join me.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Grab yourself a free ticket, no strings attached, at when to sell.org.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: The link's in the description and it is pinned to the comments down below.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: There'll be no replay, so don't ask me for one because I know nobody watches them.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: So, what's happening to quantum right now?
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Google's chief executive said it out loud, and no, this is not Google's chief executive.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't uh stop his Azempic diet and get, you know, a little, a little bit more uh, you know, filled around the cheeks.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: No, this is a BBC, God forbid, New Tonight reporter that is sort of the um propaganda machine of the British government that they make you pay for if you happen to live there.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: So he said on camera in an interview, asked about quantum computer, and he says, and I'm quoting, I would say quantum is where AI was five years ago.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: So why does that matter more than any other announcements?
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: Because of who is saying it.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: This is the company whose chip, Willow, it's called.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: I actually know a dog called Willow.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, this is a chip called Willow.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and this chip of Google's kicked off this whole quantum cycle.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: So he's not a promoter.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: He runs one of the four companies on Earth that could actually build this.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: And he just compared it to the thing that added trillions of dollars to the stock market and made many a banker very, very wealthy, which is of course what we're all here for, right?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: And if someone had told you that AI was about to do to markets what it's just done, you'd have laughed.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: You wouldn't have taken it seriously.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: But listen to this we've got Oracle putting a quantum computer in the cloud, not in the literal cloud, the thing that powers computing around the world.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: 11th of August, Oracle in Continuum announced a multi-year deal, and the important word in it is physically.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: They're putting a machine called Helios, 98 trapped iron qubits, third generation, I have no idea what I just said, inside an Oracle Cloud data center in the United States.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a simulator, it isn't a research partnership.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's the actual hardware sitting in the building next to the graphics cards from NVIDIA.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: And the preview goes out to developers in the coming months, so it's not live for everybody yet.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm very important to be honest about that.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: But there is a detail in that announcement that made me sit up.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: That machine draws, wait for it up on the screen for you, 60 kilowatts.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now, meaningless gibber, right?
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: But a leading supercomputer draws 16,000 to 39,000 kilowatts.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's a number so big I couldn't get it into a box.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a fairly bigly difference, right?
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Several hundred times bigger.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: And right now, the single biggest constraint on the entire AL build-out is electricity, yes.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's arguing about power stations, everyone's buying nuclear because Bill told us to.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're wondering why a cloud company suddenly cares about quantum, that's a big part of it.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: It costs almost nothing to run compared to what they've got right now, which is a bunch of Nvidia chips.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: And Oracle isn't alone.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon's got Grackett, Microsoft's got Azure Quantum, IBM's had its own for years.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: So quantum is quietly turned to something that you can rent by the hour.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: Like uh, I'm not gonna go there.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so the American government, this is item numerous best, they just bought.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: And this is really underappreciated.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: It happened in May.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: $2 billion when it's in nine companies.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: IBM got a billion because they probably have better lobbyists, sorry, better technology.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Global Foundries 300, and 75 got 75 million.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: D-Wave, Righetti, and a couple of others got about 100 million each.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: And it's on the ground.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: No, the government took ownership of actual shares in these businesses.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: A minority slice, right?
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: Which is the same thing they've done with uh with the chip companies and then the nuclear stuff and the rare earths and all the stuff the government cares about.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: So this is strategically important, right?
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: And you might not like the government, or you might like it, I couldn't couldn't care less the money is the thing that matters.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then number four, one of these companies just started making money.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Shocking, isn't it?
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: It should be illegal.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: INQ reported a couple of days ago.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'll show you in the Winston app to give you a little bit more colour on this.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: Got a terrible score stock, right?
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Because it's hardly making any money.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the revenue growth here.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: Isn't that just crazy?
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely crazy.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Three years of cash, so they're not gonna go out of business, you know, immediately.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: And if you read the earnings flash in here, they absolutely crushed earnings.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, they still lost money in reality, but the revenues are 287% on the year before, which is pretty impressive, right?
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very impressive.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: 40% ahead of what estimates are, huge improvement in like not losing money.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: Free cash flow is improved.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: So Winston's take is INQ is growing fast and beating estimates, but it's still burning cash with no profit in size, uh, which is true because they're investing very heavily, right?
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: Which is actually exactly what they should be doing.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's what you want your growth stocks to do.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: Because just a year ago, when I made that video and you can look it up, it was like, yeah, lovely story, but there's baggage all revenue in any of this, right?
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, this is from last year, and it was completely true.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's complete bullshit, and he knows that quantum is nowhere near ready, and the current tech might need to be completely overhauled and new methods used, blah, blah, blah.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: Not even close to being usable anytime, years and billions of dollars to get anywhere.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: You're one of those happy chaps.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um, that was true a year ago.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's not, because these chaps just brought in 80 million in revenue last quarter, which is you know, that's actually real money.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: So the queer question now is what's actually different now, other than you know, the noise?
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Well, there are three things: revenue, real money, real order backlog, like almost half a billion dollars, real customers, real invoices.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: Ownership's different.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: The government now owns some of the stuff, which is a pretty good underwriter.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: And Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM, they're now distributing the product.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: So you can now buy it.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: IT departments are start putting it in their budgets.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very different conversations from the research stage we're in in a year ago.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: Is it expensive?
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it's still massively expensive.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: Is it loss making?
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: Could you lose half your money in the sector in eight weeks?
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it's happened.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: I show you it happened about in about four minutes.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'll show you it happening in about four minutes.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: But the no progress thing is no longer true.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: So you want to be bearish.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: The honest version is it's priced ahead of itself, which is fair.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: But that's a timing and a sizing question, a risk management question.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's no longer, this is just never gonna work.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: And there are two, and I'll be gonna get into the stocks in a second, but I think this is important because very few people understand this, including me.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, people think that these chips are hopeless and incorrect.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: And yes, they're fragile and they get things wrong constantly, just like AI.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: And historically, the faster, the bigger you made the chip, the worse it was.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: You got more and more nonsense, right?
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: But what Google has showed us with Willow, who's a lovely black Labrador in my mind, um, is that you make the chip bigger and the error rate actually goes down.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: So each time they scale it up, the error rate fell very significantly.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: There's an engineering problem there, and engineers are gonna solve it.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: And this is what just broke in the last few weeks and got basically no coverage.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: There is a lab called HRL.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: It got 18 qubits running at an error rate of about 0.02%, which is superb, as the French would say.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and they use spin qubits.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: Again, I have no idea what that means.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: And then IBM went and bought HRL, which tells you it's pretty good.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: These spin qubits, I'm told, they matter.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: They are made on ordinary semiconductor equipment, the same machines that make you know the stuff in your phone.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Everything else in quantum needs some you know exotic uh hardware in a fridge colder than deep space, uh, and just insanely difficult to do.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: These spin qubits could be manufactured quite easily, quite cheaply.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: And it changes it from a science experiment to something you can actually scale, which is really the point I keep coming back to.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: And I said this in my thread literally last summer in the YouTube video.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: So you don't need to understand qubit and quantum.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: You need to understand who owns the pipes.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: So step back for a second.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: The whole quantum computing market is forecast to hit 850 billion with a B, Biden B dollars.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: We do miss the gaffes, don't we?
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, and again, it sounds like a silly number, right?
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: So it's basically about 30% growth a year.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: Every year for 15 years.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: If your money compounds at 30% a year, you end up richer than uh, you know, Bill the uh marvelous, wonderful, and great gates.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: So this is not a dot-com bubble.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's a government-backed, enormous tech company-backed, essentially unlimited money-backed, wonderful new technology.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: Quantum computing is the future.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: You may quote me on that and throw egg in my face.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: Which means the question is not if quantum computing is going to be huge, uh, the question is how do you invest in it without getting your face ripped off?
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Because that's what happened to people who invested in it last year.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, first of all, join me live on Saturday and I'll teach you how not to get your face ripped off from any stock ever again.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very simple rules, how we can avoid big losses, how we can lock in gains rather than giving it back to the buggers on Wall Street.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now, before we get into the stocks, I'm not a registered financial advisor, I don't give financial advice, I share my thoughts, my research.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: You have to decide what you do with that.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: So you read it, pull it apart, look in the holes in it, please disagree with me.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: Because those gains I told you about, the thousand percent, right?
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's one part of it.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: But it then fell 70%.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: So you put 10k into it, you know what happened?
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: You went to 115,000, you went back down to 51,000.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: And that still sounds pretty good.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: But of course, the problem is most people bought near the top and they're actually now down 70% because people get into these things too late because again, they got no rules on that.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: And then I get really lovely uh, you know, abusive comments on YouTube, which is not particularly fun.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: So remember this chart and don't be the guy who's down 40, 50, 60, 70% in your stocks, or girl, if if any are watching, um, because this is what the chart looked like.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: We had a beautiful rally up, and then we had a beautiful collapse down.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: And guess what?
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: Wall Street makes money in both directions, your broker makes money in both directions, they don't care.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: So the stock picks from last year were right.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: The gains were real, but somewhere between buying and holding, something went terribly wrong, right?
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: And it's something that happens to everybody all the freaking time.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't have an exit plan, they didn't know when to sell, they were just excited.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: They watched life-changing money appear on their screen instead of locking it in and actually changing their life, they got greedy, they held.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: And greedy might actually be the wrong word here.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's a bit unfair.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: They just didn't know what to do.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's a fair description of it.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: So, like I mentioned at the top, come and learn Wall Street rules for when to sell.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: WhentoSell.org.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's how easy it is to remember.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's down below.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: And it's gonna be the last time we run this probably this year.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's completely free.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: Get yourself a ticket.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's live on Zoom.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: Be there, take notes and learn.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: Because this is avoidable.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: You never ever need to have a lost out big again.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's my promise to you.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I believe we can change in an hour or two together.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: And this works, by the way, if you're a trader or investor, it's it's it's it's all the same stuff.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: But let's talk about the opportunity, which is what you're here for, right?
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: We managed to uh dribble on for a fairly long period until we got to the opportunity.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're still here, well done.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but this is honestly the fun part.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: These stocks are still very much in play.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_00: The story isn't over.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: If anything, the story just got started.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: So let me walk you through them each one by one.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: But let me show you one picture.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: And it's called an adoption curve, and it explains everything in one go.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what happens New technology arrives, everyone gets wildly overexcited, prices go absolutely nuts, and then it crashes back down really hard.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: 70, 80 percent, and everyone says, this technology is dead, I'm never buying it again, and they're gonna go and do the same thing again with the next thing.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's basically sending your hard-earned money to the lovies on Wall Street.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: And then quietly, while no one is really watching, the actual thing gets built, the technology, and it ends up being far, far bigger than the actual mania.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: And it tends to go up far, far more than anybody ever thought.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: Railways did this, the internet did this.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_00: The internet crash, by the way, was minus 90%, right?
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: The internet still runs the world.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: So October last year was the top of the mania here.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: And right now we're in the bit sort of, in my humble opinion, we're we're somewhere here, right?
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: Where the news is good, but nobody cares because everyone remembers the pain of the bubble bursting.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a bit dull to own, right?
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: And it's brutal to sit through because nothing happens, and then you start thinking, oh, maybe I should just sell it and go buy something exciting.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: And that's usually exactly what we don't want to do.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I've changed my approach to how I'm considering to invest in quantum.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: In May, I gave you three pure plays, lottery tickets, effectively, and I called them that.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: And they were the right chords for that moment, but the moment has changed, in my opinion.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: Because the money is moved from the story to the plumbing.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm doing it in three tiers now.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna look at safety first.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: Tier one.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: Boring.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, picks and shovels.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_00: We have who?
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: Who do we have?
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: IBM.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's sort of the ATT of the technology world, right?
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: Couldn't get any dollar.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: They got a billion dollars from the government, and they're putting a billion of their own money into quantum, and that's going into a standalone company building a 300 millimeter quantum wafer factory in Albany.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what that means, but I know Albany's in New York.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so a wafer fab, what is it?
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's um it's a factory, not a lab, it's a factory.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: So this is going to be manufactured at scale, and the American government said, ya.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then IBM just bought a little thing called HRL, I mentioned it at the top.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: So they got the manufacturing route, and they've bought the tech that suits a manufacturing route.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: So they're gonna build a machine called Starlink, not Starlink, just as a G at the end, very confusing, very poorly named, in my humble opinion.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: But it's the first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer, and they're gonna put that together by 2029, which I know it sounds far away.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: But from a company that ships things, well, there are just not many of these in the in the industry, right?
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: IBM shares are sitting below their June highs.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have a quick look at IBM in here and the Winston Up.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, if you want to play with the Winston up and get all the same data I look at, there's a month-long free trial down below.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_00: So stock, yeah, got hit pretty hard, right?
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: Donald sold it.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: Profit taker, I imagine.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: Insiders are buying, which is kind of interesting.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: Not a huge amount, but rare insiders buy, quite frankly.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: They mostly sell because they get paid.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: Shares and they're spending a huge amount on RD to get really, really good on this.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: And they're not going to run out of cash because they generate more cash than they spend.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: So it's kind of a bit of a bit of a safe play for the whole world.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: Quantum world.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now, safe, of course, is the wrong word.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: There's risk with everything.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: You can lose your money in every single investment.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: The second one is Google.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: Google's chip, Willow started this.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: The Google boss is the one who said quantum is where I where AI was five years ago.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: And you get Google.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: Stock's still down somewhat.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: I actually own Google.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: I should say actually most people own Google for an index fund, but I actually own it directly.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: El Presidente has sold it, which doesn't really mean all that much.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: No insider buys, mostly sales, which is what you would expect.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: But revenue growth is accelerating, profit growth is massively accelerating, and they're spending a huge amount on research.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: And yes, they're burning a bit of money, but they still have 370 billion cash.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I think there'll be uh everything's gonna be all right.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: If you know that song, put it in the comment down below.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: And then we got probably my favorite thing uh uh in the whole video, and maybe a little embarrassing in the last video.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: In July, I talked about three quantum plays, two obvious ones, and Honeywell.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: And Honeywell, I was like, my Honeywell is idiotic.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, they have a majority stake in something called quantinuum.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: Quantinuum.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and and you basically could buy a big, dull, profitable industrial company, and you got the quantum business tucked inside it sort of for free, right?
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_00: But you still owned a proper business.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: So I thought it was kind of a sensible, um, lower risk play, which is, I think, always the better way to go.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, the stocks up somewhat, pretty, pretty volatile, pretty, pretty up and down, if you ask me.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: But last earnings were genuinely quite good.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: They did better than the market was expecting.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um, big, big beat on revenue and so on.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: So it actually looks like a unglamorous, I grant you, but you know, decent place to be.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's better than the 70% kick in the nuts that everybody else got, right?
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: And this is the stuff that Oracle just installed inside of its cloud systems, right?
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have tier two, and these are the quantum companies that are pure place, but have revenue.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: So you can own them, but you've got to position size it right.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna have really tight rules on around selling, you know, risk management, uh, which is really, really important.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: So they brought in 80 million in one quarter, which is pretty good, huge, huge increase.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: Almost a$500 million backlog and orders, which again is also pretty big.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: Half the business is now international, 60% is commercial rather than government.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: So they're kind of spreading, spreading their wings, a lot healthier, healthier than it used to be.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: But they're still losing a lot of money.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I want to be very, very clear with that.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's very important to understand.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's why it's risky.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_00: And I should actually mention Righetti, also, sorry, I and Q.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they just bought Skywater, which is a photonics business.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, sorry, that's another one.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: Nexus, the photonics business that they picked up.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: Um, essentially, they're buying their own manufacturing.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Skywater is a chip foundry, so they make chips.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: So they're integrating the business, sort of the the Tesla idea of bring it all in-house, and that way you can really control it and you can you can make it better and faster than everybody else.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_00: Next we have Rigetti, which is doing all right.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, revenue is growing a little bit, margins are turning positive.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: They're sort of getting close to break-even, which is usually where the market starts liking these kinds of businesses more.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_00: They also own their own FAP, their manufacturing, uh, they picked up 100 million from the government, they've got a deal with the in the UK or in India, a partnership with Qanta in Taiwan.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and I said in May, this is an interesting one, but I would only want to own it if it exceeds a certain share price.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_00: If I where's my share price stock chart?
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_00: Someone stole it my stock chart.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_00: So I said after this, after this collapse here, that we want to exceed sort of about$20-ish dollars or thereabouts.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm still of that view that I still think this is a very early thing to buy.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's very risky at this particular point.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: Could work out well, of course, but it's definitely a very risky play to do.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_00: We want to find this kind of a setup here that we had in September 2025.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's the winning setup.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_00: This at the moment doesn't quite look like one yet, uh, but we might get it with a little bit of patience.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so I'm a bit cautious on Riggeti right now.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have tier three, like the lottery tickets of 2026.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: Like 2025, we had you know Reghetti and then these guys' lottery tickets.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: They've now grown up a little bit.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_00: So tier three is now the real spec of the staff, the the you know, to the moon shot, and so on.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I give you two candidates, and you can pick, and you might as well pick this is too risky for me, which would be a very, very good decision.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the first one is inflexion.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, INFQ is the ticker.
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_00: They also got 100 million from the government, different technology.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_00: They make something called, well, neutral atoms, and they also have a quantum sensing business, which is navigation and timing, and that has defense customers who buy things now rather than in 2029.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, they have a lot of cash, 400 million.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have Xanadu, um XNDUs to take up.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that's this is a photonic pure play, the first one that's actually listed, uh listed only in March this year, revenue quadrupled.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, photonics is sort of the um wrong said room temperature route.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: So if it works, it's fantastic.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: Um, if it doesn't, well, it's terrible.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: And so position sizing is everything.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: Um, if you put something in these very high risk, you're gonna lose most of it.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: So you want to be very, very, very small if you want to buy this sort of thing, in my humble opinion.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then there's one that I'm demoting, and it's called D-Wave, QBTS.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: I talked a lot about that in May.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: The bull case is still there, yeah.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_00: Commercial production and and so on.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and they sell solve something called annealing, which sounds like some terrible medical procedure.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh-uh, and and yeah, so the stock's up 2% in three months, um, in the best news cycle you ever had.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um so owning it isn't isn't daft, it's just no longer one of my topics.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I'd rather tell you that than quietly, you know, stop mentioning it.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_00: But everything I just told you, and if you're still listening, congratulations.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_00: Um, that's more than probably 90% of people, because I did go on quite a lot, but there's a lot of stuff to cover here, I think, as you can see.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: The moment you buy a stock, you need to know when you're selling it.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: First rule as a trader, first rule as a banker, first rule I ever got taught.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: So I could literally hand you a stock today that could go up 10x tomorrow, and I can tell you that most people watching this would still lose money on it.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not an intelligence question or a question of money or any of that, even experience.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's a question of skill, of rules.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_00: So learn the rules.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's far more important than knowing everything there is to know about quantum.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_00: So come and join us this Saturday, when to sell.org.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_00: It is free, it'll be fun, you can ask me questions, it'll be live, and all you gotta do is show up for yourself.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: So you're gonna show up for yourself, right?
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_00: Show up in the comments down below if you know someone who might be struggling with risk management, with when to sell, with taking profits, and who's always a bit well, they either sell too early or they sell too late, right?
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_00: There's really only two ways of doing it.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_00: If you know someone like that, share this video or the linkwhentoSell.org with them.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: Just put it on your social media, and the more people we can help, the better of an impact we make.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the happier I am, and the the happier Winston is down there who's enjoying the air con.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_00: I thank you for watching, and I wish you all the best.