Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Doctor Visits & MLB Player Futures with Sean Zerillo

Transcript

Doctor Visits & MLB Player Futures with Sean Zerillo · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. We got our WBC preview yesterday from Shon
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Zarella and he was so nice.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: We did it twice. Today.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: We chat with Sean Zarillo again as we dip into
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: the MLB player futures market. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: joined by the Prime Minister of Djen Nation Stuckey Kendrim
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Middleton still in Portugal, a vacation that I am told
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: she trained for like it was the Wine Olympics, So
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: hope that she's having a good time.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: She'll return next week. Stucky.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Do you have any big off season trips planned that
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: we should know about that you're looking forward to whenever
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: you get out of the weeds of March.
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: Not yet.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: I mean every year we would have three or four
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: trips plan by now. We always go to a national
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: park we were going to do like this year where
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: we're gonna do Glacier or Acadia. We do that for
• 1:03
  Speaker 4: a week. It hit a couple of national parts, go
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: out west usually and then we do one international trip
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: where we pick out of a hat so we put
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: we each come up with five places we want to
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: go to the camp in the US, put it in
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: a hat, and then we pick one at a time
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: out and then you reveal and then you say, we're
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: not going here, and whatever one's last is where we go.
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: But we haven't done that. We just had a baby,
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: so I don't like it's I don't know. We haven't
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: planned anything yet because we're just not sure what we're
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: gonna be able to do and when. So it'll be
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: we'll do like last minute trip planning. So it'll be
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: nothing outrageous this year.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: So this is like a year off.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: It'll be a summer of light vacations and time spent
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: with the little one.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: You can make up for it when you're old and gray.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: It's hard to travel with the baby, so I think
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: probably best to lay low. I do an annual beach
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: trip every year with the laws, so we'll go out
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: to the west coast of Florida for that sometime.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Usually it's around either the NBA Draft or NBA Finals.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I don't have to worry about the magic being involved,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: so we don't have to work around that schedule. And
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: then i've I've never been to a Cardinals game. Have
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: you ever been to Bush Stadium? That that that's on
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: my list this year. Last year I went to Wrigley
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Field for the third time, so I've I have checked
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: that box multiple times. But I always like to go
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: to a new ballpark every year. Is that one that
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: you've been to? And now they've got this deal twenty
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: nine bucks you get all you can eat at the concession,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: so we're saving money going there.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: I haven't been bushed now, but it looks cool to
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: go to great fans.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Yep, yep, they've got the uh, they've got the art
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: shout there in center field.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: By the way, I have a random question for you.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: This is based off of something that happened to me
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the other day. And I know based on previous off
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the wall conversations that we've had that you're not one
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: that goes to the doctor's office very often. In fact,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: when is the last time you've stepped foot in the
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: doctor's office?
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: Maybe to make this public knowledge?
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: No, I mean I do remember I went because we
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: had talked about this before. I went a couple of
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: years ago for like a a check in.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: I just when I moved down here, when I found
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: a doctor, but like I don't uh, that's about it.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: I have to now that I'm now that I'm getting older,
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: I have to start doing it more regularly. But yeah, not.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: I mean I would go so if I felt bad
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: or something was wrong.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Right right, But as you get older, you suppose now
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I get checking.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: But like, yeah, but what do you do or what
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: are they going to do?
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: They just give me like a yeah, I guess I
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: should be proactive, more proactive about it.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: I'm not sorry.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Well I just turned forty kid too, so I'll be
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: more proactive, all.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Right then, So that's all part of the process. And
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: so I have been having that conversation with myself. So
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I booked an appointment the other day and I go
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: in on Wednesday. I go to They checked my vitals,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: they do all this stuff. They ask you if anything's wrong,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: and they say the doc will be in shortly.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: So I'm sitting there in the room.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Up on that big seat where your feet dangle like
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: you're an eight year old.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: It's the most awkward seat on the planet.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I waited ninety minutes, stucky before some I nobody came.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I just said fuck it and I left. I didn't
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: say anything to anybody.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: You try, so no one can say you didn't try.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Do you support the move? How long would you have waited?
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And should I have said anything? That's my question to you.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: Because I'm a waiting three minutes. If it's may, maybe
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: I'll wait a little longer. But ninety minutes ridiculous. Yeah,
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: I agree.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I I've had some people say, you know.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: You anything, There's nothing I would wait ninety minutes for.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: So I was kind of tired. I kind of put
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: my head back.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I think I fell asleep for a minute, so that
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: might be why it took as long.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Why I waited as long as I did. I was
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: there already.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: It's like it's there is a sports betting element to this,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: because there's that sunk cost fallacy. Like I've already devoted
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: time to this. I book the appointment, I showed up,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I filled out paperwork. Now I'm sitting in the room
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: and you kind of just want to see it through
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: and get it over with. But yeah, in hindsight, ninety
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: minutes is ridiculous. I should have left like forty five
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: minutes prior to that, but I didn't say anything. I
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: would have to beg somebody to take care of me.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: That seems odd. I'll tell you that.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: Thank you still to come.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: MLB Futures talk with Sean Zarillo, But first a word
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: about DraftKings from the first Lady.
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: new customers came bet five dollars and get two hundred
• 5:34
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• 5:39
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• 5:41
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• 5:47
  Speaker 5: Bet five bucks to get two hundred back and bonus bets.
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: We dragged him back onto the pod.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo, lead baseball analyst over at Actionnetwork dot Com
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: show on. We've talked WBC already. Now let's dip into
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the meat of the baseball season, the twenty twenty six
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: MLB campaign. We're going to talk player futures primarily here.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: We're definitely going to bring you back to talk team
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: futures as we get closer, butting up to the start
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: of the season and opening day, But overall, when do
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: you start your process? What does that look like preparing
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: for the grind of one sixty two. I mean, we've
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: all got to take time off in between the sports
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that we spend the most time on. I imagine that
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: by now, especially with the WBC going on, the hey
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: is in the barn, so to speak. But when does
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: it start and when do you feel comfortable with where
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: you're at.
• 6:41
  Speaker 6: I am far from putting the hay in the barn.
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: The data models have not stopped running, the AI prompts
• 6:47
  Speaker 6: have not stopped prompting. In fact, when I go to
• 6:50
  Speaker 6: bed at like three am every night, I have anxiety
• 6:53
  Speaker 6: that I'm don't have like open car or something, just
• 6:56
  Speaker 6: running prompts for me on my computer getting more work done.
• 6:59
  Speaker 6: But we're doing our best here to handicap everything out
• 7:01
  Speaker 6: because I have to switch to sports like a UFC
• 7:04
  Speaker 6: pay per view as well this week. So it's just
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: NonStop for me at this point of the year. But
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: we've been going since early February in terms of like
• 7:12
  Speaker 6: writing content, getting the team futures out there, getting the
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: player props out there shortly thereafter, and certainly the WBC
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: ads some wrinkles into the process because starting on Friday,
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: I believe we've got eight games per day or something
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: like that going, so a lot of things to project out.
• 7:26
  Speaker 6: But certainly, just like in the absolute grind of this,
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: and it all starts with, you know, my team projections,
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: getting player projections, building that into a team projection, finding
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: the win totals. I can then reincorporate publicly available projections,
• 7:43
  Speaker 6: which I like to cite Pakoda fangrafts atc oopsie. I
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: think all of that gives me, you know, I have
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: my projection, which is sort of my baseline, but then
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: the variance of the publicly available projections not only the
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: win totals right, but also their playoff odds, their divisional odds,
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: et cetera, sort of gives me a range of outcomes
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: for where I expect these teams to fall. I can
• 8:03
  Speaker 6: then rerun my projections incorporating that range of variants and
• 8:07
  Speaker 6: how far apart the market expects the outcomes to be
• 8:11
  Speaker 6: for these teams. But even beyond that, I just don't
• 8:14
  Speaker 6: take the numbers at face value because there's still so
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: many anecdotal things you have to analyze, how off seasons
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: went for teams what their ownership situation is, like, whether
• 8:22
  Speaker 6: they're willing to spend in season. We have a potential
• 8:24
  Speaker 6: lockout looming, are team's going to be a little bit
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: more aggressive in terms of buying or selling this year
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: because they know that there may not be a twenty
• 8:32
  Speaker 6: twenty seven season. So I think a good example We're
• 8:35
  Speaker 6: not going to get into team futures today, but I
• 8:36
  Speaker 6: think a good example is a team like the Twins,
• 8:38
  Speaker 6: who the entire public projection market has them at about
• 8:41
  Speaker 6: seventy eight wins seventy six wins. Their win total is
• 8:44
  Speaker 6: seventy three and a half. I'm closer to seventy and
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: I haven't really massaged that projection at all. It is
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: how I feel about that team. But it is a
• 8:52
  Speaker 6: team who is dealing with ownership difficulty right now. They
• 8:54
  Speaker 6: just had to sell some minority shares. They did not
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: invest in their roster at any point, and that is
• 9:00
  Speaker 6: team who is not going to be adding pieces in season.
• 9:02
  Speaker 6: If anything, they're going to be subtracting pieces in season.
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: And I've seen some people try to leverage the opinion
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: that this will be a very bad team by in
• 9:10
  Speaker 6: fact betting them to be the worst team in baseball
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: at thirty to one, So not just taking a win
• 9:13
  Speaker 6: total under, but going all the way in terms of
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: leveraging that thesis that they will be very bad, but
• 9:20
  Speaker 6: way far apart from even what the projections are saying.
• 9:23
  Speaker 6: So yes, comparing everything, Yes, building my own stuff, but
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: also taking in some anecdotal information into account as well
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: to kind of drive my directional decision making with things ziel.
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: I think the one of the things that maybe you
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: spend time looking at or maybe you don't in the
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: off season is something that's become almost at given in
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: baseball every year, and that's Otani and Judge winning MVP.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: I mean what they've won seven of the last ten.
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: I think back to back years they've each won in
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: the NL and l is it even worth looking like
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: price wise, I'd see Judges plus win eighty five Otani's
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty five. I mean, there's like injury rest's baseball.
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: There's injury risks that things can happen like they or
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: is it just like if they get through the season healthy,
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: they're just gonna put up such numbers, or is there
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: maybe voter fatigue. There's a lot of things that I
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: think about here. Is that market even worth exploring or
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: is it just something that you ignore.
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: Yeah, we also had the two favorites win for cy
• 10:28
  Speaker 6: Young last year as well in Scooble and schemes because
• 10:31
  Speaker 6: they stayed healthy. So last year was a very chalky
• 10:33
  Speaker 6: awards market because all the favorites stayed healthy for the
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: entire year. I think that that is extremely unlikely to
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: happen again, and I think as a result, one of
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: them probably loses their award category factor in poor performance
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: potentially or just poor variance. On top of that, I
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: think Otani is much safer than Judge because one otanidh's,
• 10:52
  Speaker 6: so he doesn't have the probability of getting hurt in
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: the field. He's only going to get hurt on the
• 10:55
  Speaker 6: base pass two he pitches, which adds to his wins
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: of replacement total. And even if he gets hurt as
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: a pitcher, he gets the DH and accumulate all the
• 11:02
  Speaker 6: winds above replacement he does a DH. I think Judge
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: is the likeliest one of those four to get hurt.
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: Judge has a lingering tow issue, which he said he
• 11:09
  Speaker 6: will have to monitor for the rest of his career.
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: But it's something that cannot be fixed, so if it
• 11:14
  Speaker 6: starts the flare up again, he's going to have to
• 11:17
  Speaker 6: miss time, and missing three weeks four weeks could be
• 11:19
  Speaker 6: enough to open the door for somebody else, like a
• 11:22
  Speaker 6: Bobby Woo junior or a Gunner Henderson or Julio Rodriguez
• 11:25
  Speaker 6: to potentially pass him in War ended up stealing the
• 11:28
  Speaker 6: war winds above. Replacement is the most important correlative stat
• 11:32
  Speaker 6: in terms of predicting the winner for these categories, and
• 11:35
  Speaker 6: you accumulate that one by being good, but two by
• 11:38
  Speaker 6: playing a full season, So it is buying large going
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: to come down to injury for these guys.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Schooble is the.
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: Only one of the four that I bet, only one
• 11:45
  Speaker 6: of the four favorites that I bet, and I think
• 11:47
  Speaker 6: it's because the guys behind him one Garrett Crochet is
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: very close to him in terms of talent, but the
• 11:53
  Speaker 6: injury likelihood of Schooble versus Crochet heavily favors Scooble. Crochet
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: is a much wider distribution in terms of his range
• 12:01
  Speaker 6: of outcomes. So it does come down to injury and
• 12:04
  Speaker 6: injury risk oftentimes for these favorites, and especially right now,
• 12:07
  Speaker 6: because these favorites seem to be kind of ahead above
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: the rest of their competition. And I did take shots
• 12:13
  Speaker 6: in all the markets, but you know, not necessarily big shots.
• 12:16
  Speaker 6: We're talking a fifth or a twentieth of a unit,
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: a tenth of a unit on some guys who are
• 12:21
  Speaker 6: like fifty to one or twenty to one, just to
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: win a couple of units and maybe have some amount
• 12:26
  Speaker 6: of leverage, but not really more than you know, a
• 12:28
  Speaker 6: third of a unit, four tenths of a unit, and
• 12:29
  Speaker 6: half a unit against any of the players in these categories.
• 12:32
  Speaker 6: So I did bet Schoobol, and I did take small
• 12:34
  Speaker 6: shots against the other three favorites, but as you pointed out,
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: it really does come down an injury.
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: Look, you're not looking, no no chance of looking at
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: a I think, like twenty plus pictures of one MVP,
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: any any chance or reason to look at I mean
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: Scooble and Schemes were up there in war. Is there
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: any like what are they around fifty to one? Any
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: is it worth throwing maybe some couchs change on either
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: one or.
• 12:59
  Speaker 6: Is I think enough people bet them. These guys would
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: normally be around seventy five to one or one hundred
• 13:03
  Speaker 6: to one. I think enough people have had that thesis
• 13:05
  Speaker 6: that they got bet down to fifty to one, forty
• 13:07
  Speaker 6: to one, and as a result, I think the value
• 13:08
  Speaker 6: has kind of been sucked out. I think they should
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: both be closer to seventy five to one.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: God, what about the guys that moved around?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Is there anything that's changed for you in terms of projections,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: player markets? Dylan Cees so just pulling some big names.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Cease to the Blue Jays, Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Bobaschett is now with your New York Mets. What was
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: the biggest move for you in terms of the way
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that you had to move things around and betting futures.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about the team aspect of it moving forward,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: but how much did that change for those particular players
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: or any other that is a notable name.
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: Yeah, Edwin Diaz becomes a huge favorite and the saves
• 13:46
  Speaker 6: leader market right by moving to the Dodgers. He's the
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: same pitcher, but he's now playing for a team projected
• 13:50
  Speaker 6: win one hundred and two games instead of ninety, So
• 13:53
  Speaker 6: you add like five saves that he has projected total.
• 13:56
  Speaker 6: I still think he's worth betting against. I think there's
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: other guys in that market we're targeting, but the likelihood
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: that Edward Diez finishes as the Saves leader obviously very high.
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: Kyle Tucker, who you just mentioned. You know, if Otani
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: gets hurt, I think the biggest beneficiary in the Wards
• 14:09
  Speaker 6: market is Kyle Tucker because Kyle Talker is now the
• 14:11
  Speaker 6: Docter's second best player and the likeliest war leader on
• 14:15
  Speaker 6: that team, and I believe I have him fourth overall
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: in NL war. So if Otani gets hurt and Kyle
• 14:21
  Speaker 6: Tucker is now the best player on the best team
• 14:23
  Speaker 6: in baseball and has a top three war total, Kyle
• 14:26
  Speaker 6: Tucker is going to be very much in the mix
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: for MVP. Dylan Cees, who you also mentioned, bent him.
• 14:32
  Speaker 6: I think Dylan ces is fascinating. I think all these
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: guys removed teams are fascinating, but especially when they're moving
• 14:37
  Speaker 6: to more analytically driven organizations. I do think that I
• 14:43
  Speaker 6: do think Toronto is better in terms of their analytical
• 14:46
  Speaker 6: staff and player development. They have more money to invest
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: than a team like the Podres. But Dylan Sees is
• 14:50
  Speaker 6: a guy who's been very unlucky in terms of batting
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: average on balls and play and other luck categories. That
• 14:55
  Speaker 6: now he's going from a decent two below average defensive
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: team and now is playing for a top three, if
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: not the best defensive team in baseball. So he's going
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: to get a lot luckier in terms of the defensive
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: stuff behind him. But also he's going to a very
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: forward thinking front office who may make some player development
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: modifications to him, new pitch types, new arm angle. You
• 15:14
  Speaker 6: know they're going to do something with Dylan sees to
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: try to improve him a little bit beyond just signing him.
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: Ceases fascinating from an awards perspective because his graph is
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: distribution graph is the widest amongst all pitchers that I project.
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: He has the biggest bus potential of the biggest boom
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: potential of any pitcher out there. But that right tail,
• 15:31
  Speaker 6: that boom potential I think is going to hit because
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: of the player development modifications that Toronto likely makes to
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: him and also the defense playing behind him. So ceases.
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: Actually guy that I have bet I'm waiting on Tucker.
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: If Otani gets hurt, I would consider betting Tucker. I
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: don't think there's any point in betting in Tucker le
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: Atani is healthy. Ceases the guy I bet for Cy
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: Young for al Cy Young, which I did also bet
• 15:52
  Speaker 6: to t ourg School in that category, but Seazes is
• 15:54
  Speaker 6: one of my backup options. I think he was forty
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: to one and should probably be closer to twenty to one.
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: I think the bat luck he's had in the past
• 16:00
  Speaker 6: have sort of tanked his odds, but I also think
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: there's actual room and a path to improvement. Give them
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: the new team's now.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: With last year you catched, I believe would you you
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: had Max Freed.
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: Freed wins forty to one shorter. RBIs at fifty to one,
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: and I think we hit wit hits leader for the
• 16:18
  Speaker 6: second consecutive season. Not as big as odds, but he
• 16:20
  Speaker 6: came surging late as everybody else in front of him
• 16:22
  Speaker 6: got hurt.
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: The wins market, to me, is very interesting, just because
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: there's so much variance right in Yeah, so is there right?
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: I obviously you're you can only cap the winners so high.
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: The winner's not gonna get more than like twenty, right,
• 16:35
  Speaker 6: So the separation is.
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: Narrow Scooble's obviously the leader, but I'm assuming you are
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: looking a bit more down the board.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Anyone worth mentioning?
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I like his teammate. I like Froberveldez. I bet
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: him at about thirty to one. I make him closer
• 16:53
  Speaker 6: to twenty to one. The Tigers sort of fell off
• 16:57
  Speaker 6: in the second half of last year. One because they
• 16:59
  Speaker 6: use their bullpen a bunch the first half because they
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: have no pitching depth behind school. But two, they use
• 17:03
  Speaker 6: their bullpen so much in the second half of the
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty four season and then into the twenty twenty
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: four playoffs because they just decided to go chaos ball
• 17:11
  Speaker 6: and pitch every game like it's a baseball tournament or
• 17:13
  Speaker 6: baseball playoffs, and they were throwing new guys out every inning.
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: Aj Hinch, you know, an analytics oriented manager made some
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: good decisions in terms of in the moment getting his
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: team where it needed to be, But I think they
• 17:25
  Speaker 6: ended up paying the piper. In the second half of
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: last year. They added fromber Veldez, who was an innings
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: zeter to their staff. Goes deep into games and playing
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: for a team I project for a round ninety wins,
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: high eighties wins going as deep into games as he does.
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: Fromber projects I believe seventh on my wins leader board
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: for this year. He's right between Brian Woo and ahead
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: of Paul Skins in terms of winning the category. So
• 17:50
  Speaker 6: Fromber twenty to one or better. Fine, George Kirby, I was.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Gonna I was gonna ask about Mariners, Kirby and do Or.
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: I know you've always loved the Mariners, and it seemed like,
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, I was just going on the board Kirby
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: and Gilbert around thirty five forty to one on a
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: team that is going to be really good, that seems
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: like they're worth a look.
• 18:09
  Speaker 6: Yeah, the Mariners have my highest projected win total in
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: the AL. It's also in terms of team futures and
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: player futures combined, it's by far my biggest portfolio this year.
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: I believe I have around three and a half. I
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: think I have four and a half. I have five
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: and a half units on Astro's team futures if you
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: include or sorry, Mariners team futures, if you include my
• 18:29
  Speaker 6: correlated bets on the Astras under and the Astros miss
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: the playoffs because those are correlated, it is kind of
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: one portfolio. But I have three and a half units
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: on the A or the Mariners straight up, and then
• 18:38
  Speaker 6: I have another one point three other player futures, and
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: I think the wins leader. George Kirby is definitely on
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: that card. I actually prefer they're K leader odds, though,
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: and I should. This is a good time to point
• 18:50
  Speaker 6: out I think there's substantially more value in general on
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: milestone like two hundred plus k's two hundred ten plus
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: k's sixteen plus wins for Fromber is the only wins
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: milestone that I placed, But it's actually a bigger edge
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: than his outright prop. And I think in general, because
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: people do not bet or project milestones, they're a little
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: bit harder to bet. The limits are a little bit lower,
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: but milestones over unders I found handicapping them out this
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: preseason offers substantially bigger edges than the category leader props.
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: The category leader props the biggest edges of us getting
• 19:24
  Speaker 6: The biggest edge I have is George Kirby at like
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: two and a half percent on the wins leader market,
• 19:28
  Speaker 6: and he is the one Mariner I bet amongst that
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: group of guys you mentioned, because he goes to go
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: deepest into games. He's the most reliably to go deep
• 19:35
  Speaker 6: into games. He also tends to have the highest floor
• 19:37
  Speaker 6: amongst the Mariner pitchers, but he stills the room for
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: upside a little bit as well.
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: But that's why you prefer Kirby over Gilbert, because I
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: was thinking, like, if I like that, do I sprinkle
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: on both? Because it's obviously a really good team, and
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: then there's a lot of varrants where those wins come from.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: But do you think Kirby has the higher floor or
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: more reliable to go deeper and still has more upside?
• 19:55
  Speaker 6: So here's my second point. On top of the more
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: value in Milestone Marcus as the pairs as compared to
• 19:59
  Speaker 6: the leader markets, there's always a better way about somebody,
• 20:03
  Speaker 6: and I'm going to take the most optimal approach for
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: that specific player than I will for just taking the
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: biggest odds for that specific player or that specific category.
• 20:11
  Speaker 6: We can compare it when we get to team futures.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: There's there's like a hilarious discrepancy with the Rays and
• 20:16
  Speaker 6: a future for the Rays and somebody with the Rays
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: relatives to the Rays playoff podds. I bet Gilbert K
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: leader props. I bet Gilbert K ladder props. I bet
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: Brian WUK leader props. I bet Brian WUK ladder props.
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: So I'm talking like two hundred two ten plus two
• 20:31
  Speaker 6: twenty plus. I think there's much bigger edges on those
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: props for Gilbert than there is in his wins Leader market,
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: but those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get
• 20:40
  Speaker 6: to the two hundred plus strikeout level, he's going to
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: need to start enough games to be in consideration for
• 20:45
  Speaker 6: the wins leader market. So I'm just trying to optimize
• 20:47
  Speaker 6: my betting card, in my futures card in terms of
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: the best possible bet for each player, not necessarily the
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: biggest odds or the best portfolio for specific category. So
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: I just found more value betting on Gilbert elsewhere than
• 20:58
  Speaker 6: I did on wins Leader Kirby. The most optimal bet
• 21:01
  Speaker 6: for me was wins Leader. I don't think I have
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: any other bets on Kirby. If I do, it might
• 21:06
  Speaker 6: be like two hundred plus strikeouts, but buying large, I
• 21:08
  Speaker 6: allocated Kirby wins Leader, WU strikeouts and Gilbert strikeouts.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: Are you thinking about it the same way for RBIs?
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: Do you have anyone you're targeting there?
• 21:18
  Speaker 6: Schwarber we cashed last year. I'm right on Shwrover again
• 21:21
  Speaker 6: this year at thirty five to one. So the whole
• 21:23
  Speaker 6: thesis was Shrober last year was he used to hit
• 21:25
  Speaker 6: laid off. He's moving down a second flipping lineup spots
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: with Trey Turner, should add ten to fifteen RBI to
• 21:31
  Speaker 6: his total. I projected him at twenty to one last year.
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: They gave me fifty to one. I projected him at
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: twenty one last year. They still gave me thirty five
• 21:38
  Speaker 6: to one. So yeah, I'm back in on shoorb this
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: year one hundred percent. But yeah, like buying large, I
• 21:43
  Speaker 6: did see bigger edges than the milestone market and the
• 21:45
  Speaker 6: ninety plus one hundred plus RBI thresholds as compared to
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: the outright leader market. I think the guy who had
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: the biggest edges actually in my outright markets was shoe
• 21:56
  Speaker 6: Heo Tani home run leader, RBI leader. I make home
• 21:59
  Speaker 6: run lead about four to one for Otani. I make
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: him plus six sixty for RBI leader. I think Otani
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: went up a level. I think, you know, when you
• 22:07
  Speaker 6: look at the projections, the offensive projections even between Judge
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: and Otani, Judge and Soto judges at like ninety percent
• 22:15
  Speaker 6: above the major league average. Otani is right there. But
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: I think Otani we saw with the performance in the
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: postseason last year. With the performance that he had in
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: the second half, even though he projects like ten points
• 22:25
  Speaker 6: behind Judge in terms of offensive value, I think he's
• 22:29
  Speaker 6: right there, and the pitching aspect doesn't really scare me.
• 22:32
  Speaker 6: I still expect him to play every day. His median
• 22:34
  Speaker 6: projections are higher than judges for both home run and RBI.
• 22:38
  Speaker 6: It doesn't matter that he's hitting lead off and Judge
• 22:41
  Speaker 6: doesn't for me. The Dodgers' lineup is so deep there
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: should be plenty of opportunities there. So yeah, Judge Otani
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: home run leader or Tani RBI leader among the leader bets,
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: even though he's near the top of the board, were
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: my biggest actual projected editors for leaders.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Well, people are gonna love to hear that. So I'm
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: calming down the article. Here, you guys can go and
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: check this out. The futures bets for player projections here
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot Com. Rookie pitcher for the Blue Jays,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: tray Is Savage. You're all over this guy. What do
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: you like about him? And how are you betting into
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: his play this year?
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: Yeah, he is a really unique arm angle that. Uh,
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: this is something we can discuss in more detail with
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: team futures. But basically there's been a shift in baseball
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: in terms of home awat splits because teams now have
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: access to this traject pitching machine that if you ever
• 23:32
  Speaker 6: went to like ESPN Zone or David Busters and they
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: have those machines that like you could be a hockey
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: goalie and it like shoots it looks like a player
• 23:41
  Speaker 6: is coming at you and it like shoots the puck
• 23:43
  Speaker 6: out a little slots or they have it for baseball,
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: they have it for other sports as well. It's basically
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: like a simulator. And what they can do with this
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: traject machine now, which they can only install in their
• 23:51
  Speaker 6: home parks because it's a humongous machine, but basically teams
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: are able to get a lot better read on opposing
• 23:57
  Speaker 6: pitchers because they're actually seeing like what the army angle
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: would look like in a game, so I've got straight
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: over the top or if he's a little bit three
• 24:03
  Speaker 6: quarter or if he's more side arm. They're able to
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: get real practice abs off of a better than a
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: pitching machine, but at home, not on the road. So
• 24:12
  Speaker 6: Trey Savage is the guy who's going to dominate in
• 24:15
  Speaker 6: his home starts. I think he actually did he not
• 24:18
  Speaker 6: set the major league record I believe for strikeouts in
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: a playoff game or a World Series game last year.
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: The main concern with you Savage is that he was
• 24:26
  Speaker 6: in high school or college two years ago. He basically
• 24:30
  Speaker 6: just shot up through the minor leagues. But he did
• 24:31
  Speaker 6: throw roughly one hundred and thirty combined innings between the miners,
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: majors and postseason last year. They've talked about limiting his
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: innings or at least monitoring his innings. This year, they
• 24:41
  Speaker 6: have signed six starters. They signed Max Schurzer. They have
• 24:43
  Speaker 6: a lot of depth. But I still think you Savage
• 24:46
  Speaker 6: improves from about one hundred and thirty innings from last
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: year to closer to one sixty one seventy this year,
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: And if he's going to get there, he's going to
• 24:54
  Speaker 6: strike out two hundred plus hitters. This was one of
• 24:56
  Speaker 6: my biggest edges in terms of milestone props. Jacob Marcy's
• 24:59
  Speaker 6: told them Based Ladder was my other biggest edge in
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: terms of milestone props. When I was sitting here at home,
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: I was unable to get the money down that I
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: wanted on those props, and as a result, ended up
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: traveling out of state and driving three hours each way
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: right before that two foot blizzard that we got here
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: in New York and round tripping it all within twenty
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: four hours. So I could get down on most of
• 25:18
  Speaker 6: these props, but especially the tray Ya Savage prop. So yeah,
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: I really like you Savage this year. He is the
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: Ale favorite, I believe for Rookie of the Year, alongside
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: his teammate Kazuma Kamoto who came over from Japan, but
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: essentially Ya Savage's Rookie of the Year odds kind of
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: a line or not even align with They fall short
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: of his odds to get two hundred plus ks. So
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: why would I bet Ya Savage at six to one
• 25:42
  Speaker 6: for Rookie of the Year when in order to win
• 25:43
  Speaker 6: that award he probably needs to get two hundred plus
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: k's and I can get nine to one on his
• 25:48
  Speaker 6: two hundred plus k prop. So it just goes back
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: to finding best ways to beck Guys, this guy's the
• 25:52
  Speaker 6: favorite for Rookie of the Year. You're getting better odds
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: on his one ninety plus and two hundred k plus
• 25:56
  Speaker 6: odds than you are for Rookie the Year, and he
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: probably needs to hit that in order to hit the
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: other I.
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: Got a in two in the weeds questions one stolen
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: bases props? What Chandler Simpson is my guy? That guy
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: can fly. He's probably the fastest person in baseball. And
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: there's obviously stats on that.
• 26:15
  Speaker 6: You would know that as this home the first time
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: ever in baseball, and it's like buy a lot?
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: Is he and that they called him up last year?
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: He was up for bad?
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: He was actually he looked a little better than I
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: thought at the plate at times. Is he developing? Is
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: he gonna be up enough? And is he developing enough
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: where he's going to be on base enough to be
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: a factor in that market? And if not, is there
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: anyone you like it? Or either the lead and stolen
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: bases or any stolen based props.
• 26:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah, there's two guys that really like from a stolen
• 26:45
  Speaker 6: based perspective. From the outright three guys I like if
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: you include the milestone, Simpson is absolutely on that list.
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: Simpson is basically Billy Hamilton, except he strikes out half
• 26:54
  Speaker 6: as often as Billy Hamilton. Billy Hamilton had a career
• 26:56
  Speaker 6: twenty percent strikeout rate. Simpson was at ten percent last year.
• 27:00
  Speaker 6: So even though he doesn't walk or get on base.
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: He puts the ball in play always, and the speed
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: is going to get him on base because he's so
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: ridiculously fast. As I said, the fastest home in the
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: first time in the stackass Era by like a tenth
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: of a second, which means he's probably the fastest ever.
• 27:14
  Speaker 6: I doubt anybody before the stackass Era was running as
• 27:16
  Speaker 6: fast as this dude. Now I do project value on
• 27:19
  Speaker 6: his outright prop. I make him about plus four fifty.
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: I bet him at five to one. It's not great odds.
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: I also show odds his biggest edge, My biggest edge
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: of any prop was Simpson forty plus steals. I make
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: that minus one seventy. You have to lay minus one
• 27:32
  Speaker 6: oh five to do it. That's the twelve percent edge
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: fifty Simpson fifty plus is plus three ten. I make
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: that plus two sixty. He's going to need to get
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: to fifty plus in order to win the category. So
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: I think those are all very solid for channels. You
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: think he's going to be up for most of the year, Yeah, absolutely,
• 27:49
  Speaker 6: he's good.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: And then.
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: The other backup guy. I just wanted to mention for
• 27:55
  Speaker 6: outright slater there that I really like Victor Scott is
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: twenty five to one. I think Victor Scott will be
• 27:59
  Speaker 6: up all your Cardinals, a rebuilding Cardinals team, and Victor
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: Scott's guy who's stolen one hundred plus bases in a
• 28:04
  Speaker 6: minor league season, he will be in the mix as well.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: And my final question is is there any super in
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: the weeds? This suspect completely speculative. Is there anyone or
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: do you think about this in player awards markets, anyone
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: that you were thinking about that could be moved during
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: the season that could end up in a much better
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: you know, they might end up in a hitter's part,
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: they might a much better team and then accumulate a
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: lot of wins. Is there anyone specifically that you're thinking
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: about could fit that mold or is that just too
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: hard From a speculation perspective.
• 28:39
  Speaker 6: It's definitely speculating. I think the bigger concern with the
• 28:42
  Speaker 6: awards is not even like ending up in a better spot,
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: but switching leagues and being disqualified for winning your award.
• 28:47
  Speaker 6: I think the best player who could get moved this
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: year is could Tell Marteg There's already been some rumblings
• 28:52
  Speaker 6: about that Arizona may not have a five hundred team
• 28:55
  Speaker 6: this year. They haven't been the most willing to spend historically,
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: and I think he seemed a little bit disgruntled at
• 29:01
  Speaker 6: the end of the year. There was not only the
• 29:03
  Speaker 6: off the field incident with the fan, but also his
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: teammates like not standing up for him, and he seemed
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: a little bit mad about that. So I think it
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: tell Marte can end up switching leagues, but that's purely speculation,
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: and he could end up staying in the same league
• 29:15
  Speaker 6: as well. I guess Scooble theoretically could be the other
• 29:18
  Speaker 6: top player move because schools in the final year of
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: his deal in pitching for a contract. But unless the
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: Dodgers are sending back show Aotani, I don't think the
• 29:26
  Speaker 6: Tigers are going to move off of him yet.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: A right last one for me. Cal Raley took the
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: league by storm last year. He got to that epic
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: sixty home run mark. Is there a way to either
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: fade that or lean into it? What is his home
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: run crop for the year. I would think people are
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: going to race to the over and that the under
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: might just just given the natural variance of baseball, that
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the under should be a play here.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on that?
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: I have cal Raleigh at thirty eight point eight. Homers,
• 29:58
  Speaker 6: that's not just my projection. That's an hour virgial weighted average,
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: a bunch of publicly available productions. The market has him
• 30:03
  Speaker 6: at forty point five, and I show a five and
• 30:06
  Speaker 6: a half percent edge to the under at forty point five. Now,
• 30:09
  Speaker 6: it's not just purely a calculation of like forty point
• 30:11
  Speaker 6: five minus thirty eight point eight, it's a bunch of
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: simulations and how often he goes under that forty point five.
• 30:18
  Speaker 6: I think a lot of it is probably related to injury,
• 30:21
  Speaker 6: not even just regression, but as a catcher, catcher is
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: the likeliest position where players get injured. Foul tips off
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: the hand that break a finger, fell tips you know,
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: off the chest or off the face that cause a
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: concussion or cause an injury. So catcher is a very
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: injury oriented position. Center fielder as well, very injury oriented
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: because the dude dive for fly balls and end up
• 30:40
  Speaker 6: crashing into a teammate or end up getting themselves hurt.
• 30:43
  Speaker 6: So I think a lot of it is the injury factor.
• 30:46
  Speaker 6: I bet Julio Rodriguez for al MVP. I think Julio
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: is the better MVP candidate.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: On that team.
• 30:51
  Speaker 6: But if you are looking for a way to fade
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: cal Rawley, the home run under certainly at forty and
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: a half showed up is a recommended bet. I don't
• 30:59
  Speaker 6: know if it's going to be a I bet that
• 31:00
  Speaker 6: I end up placing, but it is one that popped
• 31:02
  Speaker 6: up as an.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Edge Sean Zarillo. You can find all of his work
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com. Two episodes with Sean this week,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: good stuff.
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: Appreciate the time.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Make sure you go and check out the app Action
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Network on the website actionnetwork dot com and the Payoff
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Pitch podcast. We'll have divisional previews available in the coming
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: days and weeks and during the season. Best Bet episodes
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: every Monday, Tuesday and Friday.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Been so much fun catching up with you, Sean. Thanks
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: for the time, guys, Thank you for having me.
• 31:30
  Speaker 6: Look forward to talking to you futureson.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: Thanks BROB And that'll do it for today's episode.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Special Thanks to our guest over the last two Shan Zarillo,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Gifford Gold, David Paine, our producer statsound to Evan Abrams.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: More great content coming at you next week The Favorites.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: We'll return on Tuesday, and as always, you can catch
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: it right here on the Action Network YouTube page or
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: wherever you download your favorite podcasts. We'll see you next
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: time here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings. The Crown
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: is yours.
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler