Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Top Economist CONFIRMS You MISSED The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin?! | EP 1495

Transcript

Top Economist CONFIRMS You MISSED The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin?! | EP 1495 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:02
  Bitcoins back at $78,000 this morning and we're all wondering,
• 0:08
  did we miss our last chance to buy Bitcoin at $60,000?
• 0:14
  I don't want to jinx it 'cause we all know when you say that it
• 0:17
  usually dumps again. But let's listen to what one of
• 0:21
  the world's top economist, Lynn Alden, has to say.
• 0:25
  About where we currently are in this cycle.
• 0:28
  Let's play the clip. Let's talk about Bitcoin.
• 0:32
  And there's no better way to segue from macro to Bitcoin than
• 0:35
  to talk about gold. Silver, they're massive bull
• 0:38
  runs. Now when, when I've I've, I've
• 0:40
  seen a few charts posted by analysts and I've looked at it
• 0:43
  myself, Whenever gold has had a massive bull run and then
• 0:46
  plateaued, Bitcoin suddenly energizes and goes parabolic.
• 0:50
  Have you seen that correlation? And do do you think we're
• 0:53
  approaching that moment now? I have seen the correlation.
• 0:57
  I would say, you know, the sample size is not super big.
• 1:00
  You know, when, when bitcoins a 17 year old asset and you say,
• 1:03
  OK, well, the first seven years it was tiny.
• 1:05
  Just let's say a decade of correlation.
• 1:08
  That's not a that's not a ton of sample size to go on.
• 1:10
  But there it makes some intuitive sense that you have
• 1:12
  kind of the the hard money folks.
• 1:14
  There's there's fraction or a couple of different camps.
• 1:16
  You know, there's Bitcoin, there's gold, there's silver,
• 1:18
  there's like altcoins. And you know, when 1 is doing
• 1:22
  really well, it tends to suck some of the capital out of the
• 1:25
  out of the room for everyone else.
• 1:28
  Whereas when one that is stagnating, it allows other ones
• 1:30
  kind of a chance to, to do well. And so, you know, because there
• 1:34
  was a pretty big central bank bid for, for gold.
• 1:38
  In addition, it was just kind of, you know, a lot of us in
• 1:40
  the, you know, I, I'm one of those people that's bullish on
• 1:43
  both Bitcoin and gold. So I've been, I've been tracking
• 1:45
  gold, I've been bullish gold since 2018.
• 1:47
  And you know, a lot of times things happen all at once.
• 1:50
  Like I, you know, I would have expected gold when gold was like
• 1:52
  2000. I expected to be more like 3000.
• 1:56
  And but then suddenly it goes from like 2000 to like 5000 way
• 1:59
  quicker than I would have guessed.
• 2:00
  Like if it was 5000, I would have thought that it would have
• 2:02
  been 3500 or 4000. So these, these moves tend to
• 2:05
  happen very quickly in my view. You know, the sentiment in
• 2:09
  precious metals has probably topped, not to say that the
• 2:12
  prices have topped. I'm kind of on record saying I
• 2:15
  don't think that they're in a bubble.
• 2:16
  Gold and silver, I think they've rapidly revalued from kind of
• 2:20
  structurally undervalued to something closer to resembling
• 2:23
  fair value. So I'm less interested in them
• 2:25
  because they're, they're less asymmetric than they were
• 2:29
  several years ago when they were kind of close to their mining
• 2:32
  costs and they were kind of super cheap.
• 2:34
  Based on the metrics I look at, they've revalued higher.
• 2:38
  I think we probably have not seen B high, but you know, I
• 2:41
  think the, the, the speed with which they, they go up there is
• 2:43
  kind of probably behind us. And I think, you know, all, like
• 2:47
  I said, all the fast money's out out of Bitcoin.
• 2:50
  A lot of the indicators look really good.
• 2:51
  I mean, you know, the, the, the funding rates, you know, if
• 2:54
  you're getting paid to short it or go long it, the on chain
• 2:57
  stuff, the, the kind of the technical indicators, like if
• 3:01
  you look at say the weekly numbers, they're kind of rolling
• 3:03
  up. And so in my base case, you can
• 3:06
  always be wrong in these things. My base case that Bitcoin has
• 3:09
  seen the bottom, it's already up pretty significantly from the
• 3:11
  bottom. And I think this is an
• 3:13
  accumulation phase. Hey, look, when Lynn gives us
• 3:19
  some strategy on where we currently are, not only do I
• 3:23
  listen, but most of us listen. Now there are a few interesting
• 3:27
  tidbits. I'm, I'm not going to cover
• 3:29
  everything she said, 'cause she probably can say it a lot better
• 3:32
  than me, but we, we can maybe on sentiment wise feel a few
• 3:36
  things. Obviously the fast money seems
• 3:39
  to be gone. It, it really feels like the
• 3:40
  only people in Bitcoin right now are people that believe in
• 3:43
  Bitcoin, that have been in Bitcoin for a very long time.
• 3:47
  Until we see another leg up. Will we start to get more of
• 3:50
  the, I don't know, retail FOMO, people chasing the Bitcoin
• 3:54
  price? That's just how it works.
• 3:56
  Now what we have seen though that is very interesting is the
• 4:00
  gold and silver prices. Even though they had an
• 4:03
  incredible 2025, it has been a little bit stagnant.
• 4:07
  And this is just a a larger clip or a shorter clip of a larger
• 4:12
  interview that literally just dropped right before we went
• 4:14
  live. So shouts out the Bitcoin
• 4:15
  archive. I want to give him his credit.
• 4:17
  Shouts out to Archie. I'm going to totally watch the
• 4:19
  whole clip later on today. See exactly where Lynn Alden is
• 4:24
  at right now. But there is a few little
• 4:28
  tidbits here that are very interesting in the context of
• 4:32
  what's going on, and this one in particular is interesting.
• 4:35
  I think we've all been saying that the stretch product from
• 4:38
  Sailor is Bitcoin's iPhone moment, though I don't think
• 4:42
  that metaphor really plays out perfectly because, you know, the
• 4:48
  iPhone, like the big moment was that the the smartphone went to
• 4:52
  the masses. And it doesn't seem like the
• 4:55
  stretch product is per SE going to the quote masses here.
• 4:59
  But it is interesting that we're all kind of waking up to this
• 5:02
  idea of just how big of a product and a game changer
• 5:07
  Sailor is with the stretch. And, and also I did get an
• 5:11
  e-mail last night and forgive me, bro, someone was trying to
• 5:14
  explain to me the stretch product.
• 5:16
  It made a little more sense to me.
• 5:19
  I, I'm still going to have to fully understand what sailor is
• 5:23
  doing with the stretch product. I, I'm upfront of I have no idea
• 5:26
  what exactly this product is doing 'cause I'm just a spot
• 5:30
  Bitcoin holder, but that's besides the point.
• 5:33
  What is interesting though, and I've been covering all the
• 5:36
  indicators for you guys, you know, and I and I know you guys
• 5:40
  sometimes like the TA, sometimes you're like, you guys only talk
• 5:44
  about price. Well, it's not just about what
• 5:47
  we like. It's about what people are
• 5:49
  looking and that's what they like.
• 5:51
  They want to understand where we currently are.
• 5:54
  What do Bitcoiners think of where we are right now?
• 5:56
  And I think the biggest take away for me here is she said
• 6:01
  we're in the accumulation phase now.
• 6:02
  What does that necessarily mean? It kind of goes back to what we
• 6:07
  saw happened in 2025, though you would probably consider that
• 6:10
  more of a distribution phase. This does seem, at least in my
• 6:14
  mind, to connect to the Wick off accumulation phase.
• 6:18
  And actually I didn't even pull that up.
• 6:19
  I didn't even think I was going to talk about that.
• 6:22
  So this is what that looks like. Hold on, let me let me find it
• 6:27
  for you guys. I got to do a little little
• 6:30
  Google for ya. Gives me the worst image
• 6:35
  possible. Here we go.
• 6:38
  Oh man, still giving me all right.
• 6:40
  Got it here. Is and and I don't think she's
• 6:43
  necessarily saying wake off accumulation phase, but you
• 6:47
  know, historically trading patterns and Tai know TA is
• 6:51
  astrology for men or, you know, reading tarot cards or tea
• 6:54
  leaves. I I get it.
• 6:56
  But just to put a framework of what that looks like, here is a
• 7:00
  very simple wake off accumulation phase.
• 7:04
  Obviously it hits the bottom, it kind of ranges, we get a spring
• 7:07
  and then it gets a break out and then it comes back to a certain
• 7:11
  price. And then finally we get a leg up
• 7:13
  and then it does the same thing re accumulation and then it
• 7:16
  starts going up. I've been saying wake off maxi
• 7:19
  for a while now. I know a lot of people are still
• 7:22
  in the we're in the four year cycle, bro.
• 7:25
  I actually saw a chart yesterday basically saying or actually
• 7:28
  connecting the fact that every time we see a new Fed chair,
• 7:33
  governor or lead chair, we get an even larger drop in Bitcoin.
• 7:41
  And obviously we're in kind of that transition phase.
• 7:45
  It hasn't fully been taken over by Kevin Wash yet, but we know
• 7:49
  Jerome Powell is out. So, you know, there's
• 7:53
  conflicting perspectives right now.
• 7:55
  Some people are saying, hey, look, I wouldn't want to be a
• 7:57
  bear. The bears are crying themselves
• 8:00
  to sleep right now. It does feel that we are on the
• 8:04
  verge of a breakout. And again, maybe that's my bias.
• 8:07
  You know, I any TA price sentiment from my perspective is
• 8:14
  always with a bias bias bullish sentiment.
• 8:19
  I, I always look through it through a bullish lens.
• 8:22
  I might not We're we're out. We're we're going to get out of
• 8:24
  here. And you can see that if I do
• 8:28
  look at an interesting chart, one of the most interesting
• 8:30
  charts that I'm looking at, that is confirming to me that we
• 8:34
  might have seen the bottom is the Bitcoin price and gold
• 8:38
  chart. Now this is the gold chart
• 8:39
  because this is what Lynn Alden was saying.
• 8:41
  You know, we had kind of a blow off top for the last couple of
• 8:44
  months. There has been a correction.
• 8:48
  Yes, central banks are acquiring gold at levels we've never seen
• 8:51
  before. Yes, it seems like.
• 8:52
  Hold on. Sorry guys, got a little air in
• 8:55
  my throat. It does seem like the world is
• 8:59
  moving away from dollars, in particular from what we've seen
• 9:02
  in the Strait of Hormuz or the Middle East conflict.
• 9:06
  I don't know if you guys saw last night, but it seems like
• 9:09
  the Bank of Japan did a yen intervention.
• 9:12
  They sold or likely sold about $35 billion of U.S.
• 9:15
  Treasuries. So it does seem like we are
• 9:19
  seeing a lot of dollar selling pressure right now as the world
• 9:24
  starts to wake up. Maybe we don't want U.S. debt,
• 9:27
  maybe we don't want U.S. dollars, maybe we need something
• 9:30
  else. And we've seen a long trend the
• 9:32
  last year in regards to central banks finally acquiring more
• 9:37
  gold than dollars or treasuries for cents. 20 plus years.
• 9:43
  I think the date is 1996. So we are in very interesting
• 9:47
  times. Now.
• 9:48
  Again, I do believe in a very fundamental heuristic here that
• 9:52
  I think the dollar could last a lot longer than a lot of
• 9:55
  Bitcoiners make it out to be. I think we're going to be in a
• 9:58
  bimetalism era for a lot longer than we all want to admit.
• 10:03
  There's going to be, you know, 2 parallel systems happening right
• 10:07
  now, one where you use dollars to spend and one where you use
• 10:10
  Bitcoin to save. And they are interacting.
• 10:14
  And as we've seen this huge push towards stable coins, I think
• 10:19
  they're going to be interlinked a lot longer than a lot of us
• 10:21
  hardcore Bitcoin Maxis would like to emit.
• 10:25
  I know we want the world to go to a purely Bitcoin standard.
• 10:28
  And as I've covered this week, there is a lot of efforts and
• 10:31
  builders, developers building that ecosystem of a purely
• 10:36
  Bitcoin world using Bitcoin as money.
• 10:40
  But I think it's going to be a process here.
• 10:42
  Now, I did mention the Bitcoin gold chart.
• 10:45
  Now, to me, this is probably the most interesting chart and the
• 10:50
  best confirmation to me that we might have bought them.
• 10:53
  Now, obviously I can be wrong. Who knows what's going to happen
• 10:57
  here. But as we all know, when Bitcoin
• 11:02
  priced in gold starts going upwards, that's totally when you
• 11:06
  can consider a bear market happened already it's a Bitcoin
• 11:11
  bottom and we are on this trend since the, you know, start of
• 11:17
  the Middle East conflict. Now, are we going to see a
• 11:20
  breakout? It looks pretty good.
• 11:22
  It looks like we have already seen a bottom, which is what I
• 11:26
  said and I'm not trying to do the victory lap here.
• 11:30
  But if you are waiting for a return, which is possible,
• 11:33
  again, everyone's doing the return, you know, sell in May.
• 11:37
  But if you're not in at least priced in gold, you've already
• 11:40
  missed what, 40% off the bottom? Yeah, almost 45% off the bottom.
• 11:46
  That's crazy. As I've told you guys the other
• 11:49
  day, I had a conversation with Luke, I don't know, about like 2
• 11:52
  weeks ago. And he was saying like, yeah, I
• 11:55
  think I'm gonna, I think I'm kind of looking at the 86 K
• 11:58
  range before I go in, or rather before I start to feel bullish.
• 12:02
  And I was like, that's crazy talk.
• 12:05
  That's like a 30% move off the bottom already.
• 12:08
  And that's when you're going to start to get bullish.
• 12:10
  I'm like, I don't know about that guys, but we are seeing,
• 12:15
  you know, we'll, we'll go generous here, 30% already.
• 12:19
  And we are hitting a pivotal level.
• 12:21
  Remember I've been telling you. Guys that most people are eyeing
• 12:25
  this, you know 8081 K range right here.
• 12:29
  For everyone to start really flipping bullish and this
• 12:33
  morning again, Bitcoin seems to be doing the wake off
• 12:40
  accumulation strategy bounces correct or you know, goes up,
• 12:44
  corrects, goes up, corrects, hits a spring, it comes up and
• 12:49
  then we're in this leg up re accumulation phase and then we
• 12:53
  just start to really climb upwards.
• 12:57
  The action I'm seeing is very interesting and I know you guys,
• 13:01
  some of you guys like the TA, the chart bowing stuff, but it's
• 13:04
  Friday. Can we not have a little fun?
• 13:06
  Look at a little little, you know, red and green candles, or
• 13:10
  at least in my case, red and blue candles.
• 13:13
  You know, it's it's casual Friday here.
• 13:15
  I I think I'm gonna coin that every Friday is a casual Friday.
• 13:18
  We'll have a little more fun on a Friday show, but we did see
• 13:22
  some very interesting numbers come out.
• 13:25
  Again. It's the first day of May.
• 13:30
  We got new numbers coming out and we saw that the ISM, which
• 13:35
  is the production numbers, it's still in expansion, guys.
• 13:40
  Every time ISM has gotten above 50, it means the economy is
• 13:46
  expanding. And every time that happens, it
• 13:52
  means Bitcoins going to take another leg up.
• 13:55
  Bitcoin bull markets always occur.
• 13:57
  Literally always. Occur.
• 13:59
  Following ISM expansions and shouts out to Joe Consorti.
• 14:03
  He's got a really nice chart here.
• 14:04
  You know, four straight months of expansion, the US economy, we
• 14:07
  always get a bull run when we see the ISMPMI numbers expand.
• 14:13
  Either this time is different or the bears are cooked.
• 14:18
  And you can see every time it started to expand, we started to
• 14:21
  get a bull run up and we haven't expanded since 2022.
• 14:26
  It's been absolutely dead and Bitcoin still maintained to get
• 14:30
  to an all time high. And now we're getting expansion
• 14:33
  again. I would not want to be a bear
• 14:37
  right now. Oh, I didn't pull it up.
• 14:38
  Sorry, guys. I would not want to be a bear
• 14:41
  currently. And and it's I guess it's maybe.
• 14:45
  Poetic that I don't have Nico on the show today so we can stay
• 14:49
  bullish all day. You know, 'cause I would do my
• 14:52
  bullish thing and then he comes on.
• 14:53
  He's like, I don't know, man. What, what?
• 14:55
  What's He's always saying the four year cycle is intact until
• 15:00
  proven otherwise. Like, yeah, tell me water is
• 15:03
  wet, bro. Like, what?
• 15:04
  What are we talking about? Like, yeah, of course.
• 15:07
  Duh. Anyways, what am I feeling
• 15:10
  today? If you even care.
• 15:12
  If you even. Care where where I'm currently
• 15:14
  looking at and what I'm currently seeing.
• 15:21
  Is I, I really believe that everyone thinks we are in a
• 15:25
  typical bear market, but if you look at everything built
• 15:29
  underneath it, all the news, all the new products, the general
• 15:34
  sentiment shift, this is not a normal bear market.
• 15:39
  I, I, you can't, you can't convince me otherwise that this
• 15:42
  is a normal bear market. Yes, the four year cycle topped
• 15:45
  it exactly 18 months after the halving, but this doesn't feel
• 15:51
  like a normal bear market now. I could eat my words in a month
• 15:54
  or two. You know, we still got until
• 15:56
  October until we get that, you know, the four year cycle's
• 16:00
  intact until proven otherwise, mean basically destroyed and we
• 16:05
  could see a sell in May scenario.
• 16:08
  But everything right now is definitely pointing towards a
• 16:15
  different avenue, a different arena that we're playing in.
• 16:20
  And on top of that, we did get a barely barely.
• 16:25
  Well, I guess it's not barely. You know, we got about an 11%
• 16:29
  gain on the monthly here. And the last time we had three
• 16:35
  bullish months back-to-back to back was 2019 and that was
• 16:40
  actually from February until June.
• 16:42
  It pumped. That's the last time in history
• 16:46
  that we've had three in a row. So maybe maybe we're not going
• 16:58
  to see a sell in may scenario. Maybe right now this you know,
• 17:03
  actually watch, I'll say it and the price is going to dump on
• 17:06
  me. Maybe this time is different
• 17:08
  guys. Let me let me see what you guys
• 17:11
  are saying and Opti on time. Well, all right guys.
• 17:15
  So. Yes.
• 17:18
  Are we not getting 40K in October?
• 17:20
  Nope, I don't know. Nope, we're going down first.
• 17:25
  After last two cycles I learned to weigh 12 months.
• 17:27
  After cycle talked about, yeah, that's usually a pretty good
• 17:30
  this. Time is the.
• 17:31
  Same. Yeah.
• 17:34
  And guys, I did start early. It got a little quiet.
• 17:37
  I'm, I, I'm not losing my mind over here.
• 17:42
  They are literally on the roof. OK, so yes, I started early
• 17:45
  because I, I thought I had a window.
• 17:47
  It seemed quiet. For a little bit and now I think
• 17:49
  they're back up there. Hopefully they're done today and
• 17:55
  I can do the show normally. OK, Hopefully we don't get crazy
• 18:01
  action here on top of me and. You get a a bunch of Bitcoin
• 18:04
  wicking off off Has AFTI ever been bearish?
• 18:09
  Yes, I have I have I completely have been bearish guys come on.
• 18:18
  You already know. You already know guys, I've.
• 18:24
  Been crashing out on the show for the last what 6 months yeah,
• 18:28
  I'm still bullish, but I've been losing my mind.
• 18:31
  So you guys saying that I'm hearing things it's not too far
• 18:34
  off. I am little I'm holding on by a
• 18:36
  thread here to do the show for you guys to do the stream, but I
• 18:40
  am starting to feel as if we are we are in the midst of a
• 18:46
  breakout and someone said I'm bullish now because Lucas I
• 18:50
  talked. To him this morning, he's like,
• 18:53
  damn, I'm, I'm getting even more bullish.
• 18:56
  I'm getting the tingles, guys. Are we getting the tingles?
• 18:59
  Or, sorry, are the males in the chat?
• 19:01
  Getting the tingles, guys. I think I really, I, I want to
• 19:10
  say it, but I know I'm going to be wrong.
• 19:12
  It really seems as if this time is different.
• 19:16
  It really. Does seem like we have entered a
• 19:18
  new era of Bitcoin the last 17 years.
• 19:21
  We knew exactly what was going on.
• 19:25
  And I think from here on out, because we have a new investor,
• 19:29
  a new type of investor with a new type of psychology, it's
• 19:32
  going to fundamentally change everything that we know about
• 19:35
  Bitcoin. And the data points are very
• 19:37
  simple. One institutions are the one
• 19:42
  that's really driving the price. Whether you love it or hate it,
• 19:45
  that's what's happening. They have the capital, they're
• 19:47
  trying to get into Bitcoin. And on top of that, they have a
• 19:51
  totally different mentality than we do.
• 19:54
  They're watching the Fed, you know, FOMC meetings, they're
• 19:58
  watching the macro situation and they usually believe in about a
• 20:04
  four month bear market. We're used to what, 18 months,
• 20:08
  you know, almost like 2 years for the price to turn around and
• 20:12
  they're coming in like yo, 4550% discount on this thing that
• 20:16
  we're going to hold for 10 years plus.
• 20:19
  We want this as much as as we want to get as much as humanly
• 20:23
  possible. Right now things are changing in
• 20:29
  real time and it's up to us to adjust to where we are.
• 20:34
  I and actually I've I have been low key crashing out on this
• 20:37
  idea. I not really crashing out.
• 20:39
  I I've mentioned it about two or three times on the show this
• 20:42
  week in particular where a lot of us Bitcoiners, we still have
• 20:48
  this perspective of, you know, Bitcoin being grass level, run
• 20:54
  by the plebs. Like we're in control, we run
• 20:56
  the nodes and I still wholly believe that in terms of the
• 21:00
  decentralized, you know, verify if your Bitcoin is real Bitcoin
• 21:04
  and you're receiving your transactions, etcetera,
• 21:07
  etcetera, etcetera. But we're not in control of the
• 21:11
  price anymore. So now is the time where you
• 21:14
  literally just accumulate Bitcoin and enjoy the ride.
• 21:18
  We used to maybe be able to just rely on the Bitcoin wells to
• 21:22
  tell us what was going to happen.
• 21:25
  Well, now it's like the Bitcoin wells are swimming with
• 21:29
  megalodons, and that's the Wall Street institutions.
• 21:33
  And we're just looking at the whales, and they're like, yeah,
• 21:35
  they're still in control. And then there's a bigger apex
• 21:38
  predator out there that is now chomping at the bits to get into
• 21:42
  Bitcoin. It's hard for me to think that
• 21:49
  Bitcoin's going to play out how we we thought it was going to
• 21:52
  play out in the past. Actually, there's another
• 21:54
  interesting thing. I didn't even bring it up.
• 21:57
  Maybe I'll bring it up right now.
• 21:58
  I got I got a couple minutes before.
• 21:59
  Do you feel in charge? Yeah, Yeah.
• 22:02
  What's that one meme? There are females.
• 22:04
  In the chat there's like 2 bro, what's that one meme where he's
• 22:09
  like in jail? And it's like, I'm not stuck in
• 22:11
  here with you, you're stuck in here with me.
• 22:14
  Yeah, that meme. Did you guys see this?
• 22:17
  This was actually pretty funny. Me and me and Luke had a pretty
• 22:19
  good laugh about this and I and I might be blowing a story for
• 22:25
  for a Monday. But I got to, I got to talk
• 22:29
  about it right now because the only reason I'm bringing this up
• 22:32
  is because it leans into literally all of our models are
• 22:35
  broken and everyone right now is really leaning on the power law
• 22:40
  model. And I'm not the biggest power
• 22:41
  law model guy. I think it's too bearish to be
• 22:43
  honest. I'm like, that's way too
• 22:45
  bearish. Anyways, we had, we saw Giovanni
• 22:48
  post this and apparently he met up or didn't meet up.
• 22:55
  He talked to Sailor for a bit at a public event.
• 23:00
  But this is, this is actually kind of funny and and it it will
• 23:03
  connect to what what we're talking about here in this first
• 23:07
  part. And so he did this long.
• 23:08
  I'm not going to read the whole thing because honestly, the
• 23:12
  math, you guys know me. I have a 42 IQI can barely do
• 23:15
  basic math. OK, I can't you guys see me on
• 23:17
  the show. I can barely do basic freaking,
• 23:20
  you know, ratios here in fraction.
• 23:22
  But this post is called when models meet and he goes to
• 23:25
  conversation with Michael Saylor and what the data actually says
• 23:28
  about Bitcoin. We're not when we're not even
• 23:30
  going to get to the data. But anyways, apparently he met
• 23:33
  Saylor and was super excited to talk about the power law.
• 23:38
  And he goes. So I asked his honest opinion on
• 23:41
  the power law. He was cordial but also generic.
• 23:44
  But then he started to say that Bitcoin is exponential.
• 23:47
  I was caught off guard. I've spent a great deal of
• 23:49
  effort in my book and in published work demonstrating,
• 23:52
  both mathematically and at the level of the system itself, why
• 23:54
  exponential growth is not the right description of Bitcoin's
• 23:57
  price history. As the physicist GW says,
• 24:01
  companies grow exponentially and they die, while cities are
• 24:05
  eternal because they flow, they follow power laws.
• 24:08
  Bitcoin belongs to this category of eternal phenomenon.
• 24:11
  It is not a dirty exponential, but a beautiful self supporting
• 24:14
  power law. So I tried to explain the
• 24:17
  returns are decreasing in time and exponential by definition
• 24:21
  has a constant rate growth. That is the whole point of the
• 24:24
  functional form. If Bitcoin were an exponential,
• 24:27
  it would look like a straight line in a log linear chart, and
• 24:30
  it doesn't. His response was that Bitcoin is
• 24:33
  an exponential but with a decreasing rate of change.
• 24:36
  That is a clumsy and unnecessarily complicated model
• 24:39
  when the power law already accounts for diminishing
• 24:41
  returns. Naturally, with a single
• 24:43
  parameter and a clear mechanistic interpretation, the
• 24:47
  conversation didn't go. Where I had hoped.
• 24:51
  Anyways, anyways you can you can read the whole post, but that's
• 24:54
  the only part that. I really wanted to talk about
• 24:56
  here Bitcoin. Well, Sailor has the
• 25:01
  perspective. Bitcoin is exponential, but
• 25:03
  it's. Going to and and let me let me
• 25:07
  let me get the exact where did where'd it go?
• 25:14
  It is exponential, but with a decreasing rate of change.
• 25:17
  And I, I tried to kind of wrap my head around I like you guys
• 25:22
  could probably tell, tell me what that fully means.
• 25:25
  But obviously when I hear exponential, I think S curve
• 25:28
  adoption, I think, you know, expansion big moves up and then
• 25:33
  the last part of decreasing rate of change is, you know, we're
• 25:38
  going to see maybe 70% kagers and 60% kagers and 50 all the
• 25:45
  way down to the 2020 five 30% kagers that sailor keeps kind of
• 25:49
  touting around on all of the stages.
• 25:52
  And Giovanni is like Bitcoin follows the power law
• 25:56
  diminishing returns. You know, it's it's a gradual
• 26:00
  movement up and I just that model just doesn't make sense to
• 26:04
  me. Maybe I just don't know math.
• 26:06
  You know, I'm not a physicist. I just, that doesn't makes sense
• 26:11
  to me. And I, and I've kind of talked
• 26:14
  about the power law a lot on this show, where in my opinion,
• 26:18
  very few people actually hold Bitcoin and even fewer of those
• 26:21
  people understand what Bitcoin is like We do in terms of the
• 26:25
  best money, the best store of value, peer-to-peer, censorship
• 26:28
  resistant, permissionless network, all all that good
• 26:31
  stuff. And sailors like, Nah, dude,
• 26:34
  it's exponential. Like it's going to explode over
• 26:38
  time. It will slow down.
• 26:40
  But we are still in the expansion phase of Bitcoin.
• 26:45
  And I tend to lean towards sailors view of this because I
• 26:48
  don't think that very many people hold Bitcoin.
• 26:50
  And if they do hold Bitcoin, they don't hold a lot of
• 26:52
  Bitcoin. And maybe just from first
• 26:57
  principles heuristics. You know, I always joke that the
• 27:00
  left side of the bell curve usually ends.
• 27:01
  Up on the right side of the bell curve, we transcend the bell
• 27:04
  curve because the left and the right always end up with the
• 27:07
  same perspective, so. I'm all I'm seeing in my mind
• 27:09
  here the classic bell curve. We got Opti.
• 27:13
  Wait, Opti on the left? Giovanni in the middle and
• 27:19
  Sailor on the right. I I sorry guys, I forgot.
• 27:25
  I'm not supposed to laugh here. I'm not.
• 27:26
  I'm not supposed to have fun. But.
• 27:27
  And I and. I don't mean to really talk
• 27:30
  smack on Giovanni. I'm sure someone's going to clip
• 27:32
  this and then he's going to get mad at me and whatever.
• 27:37
  It just, it just doesn't make sense with my lived experience
• 27:40
  here. No one holds Bitcoin.
• 27:43
  And like I said, and of the people that hold Bitcoin, a very
• 27:47
  small portion of those people are completely all in.
• 27:53
  And I would say even a smaller portion, maybe not of that
• 27:57
  portion, but of the people that hold Bitcoin are like 2530% in
• 28:02
  the Bitcoin. And I'm of the opinion that most
• 28:05
  people will hold a significant portion of their wealth in
• 28:08
  Bitcoin. It's not going to happen today,
• 28:12
  it's going to happen soon. And.
• 28:19
  He wants us all to read. Why do you make a video?
• 28:22
  He wants us all to read Oh man, we're just found you.
• 28:26
  All right guys, look, I can read all right?
• 28:29
  Anyways, why? Why am I bringing this up?
• 28:34
  Because I think we have literally like no models left in
• 28:37
  Bitcoin. The only one that in my opinion
• 28:40
  is still intact is the four year cycle.
• 28:42
  And even that is kind of breaking in real time and in my
• 28:48
  mind if I'm looking. Backwards.
• 28:50
  Why are they breaking now? It's because we are starting to
• 28:56
  see huge influxes of capital from the giant capital pools
• 29:01
  that we all envision and theorize and hope would one day
• 29:05
  come into Bitcoin. And it's happening faster than
• 29:07
  we thought it would happen. My main problem with the power
• 29:11
  law, and I, and I could be wrong here, again, this is not my
• 29:15
  Forte, but my main problem with the power law is essentially the
• 29:18
  idea that we're just going to see a slow, gradual adoption of
• 29:22
  Bitcoin. I don't think that's how this is
• 29:25
  going to play out. That's why I do lean towards the
• 29:27
  sailor kind of perspective. And it's exponential that we
• 29:30
  will see a moment where the, you know, the switch flips and
• 29:34
  people realize they need to get into Bitcoin.
• 29:36
  Is it going to be this year? Probably not.
• 29:38
  Will it be before 20-30? That seems more reasonable,
• 29:43
  reasonable to me. Will it be before 2040?
• 29:45
  Like without a doubt. So am I feeling bullish right
• 29:50
  now? I am kind of feeling bullish
• 29:52
  though as I showed you all my. Charts, again, I don't trade.
• 29:56
  I don't trade. I just use the charts to kind of
• 29:59
  wrap my head around what I'm feeling.
• 30:03
  And try to temper my bullishness.
• 30:06
  But if we over the weekend get a, a weekend pump, if it goes
• 30:11
  into the 80801K, if we break out of the 78K and we go into, you
• 30:16
  know, into the low 80s, it's that's going to in my mind kind
• 30:23
  of confirm that we are going into a bear a bull market.
• 30:29
  All right, they're scraping up there.
• 30:31
  They're scraping. All right, anyways, I I'm, I'm
• 30:33
  going to have to keep it moving. Opti's on the Taco, but I'm
• 30:36
  going to keep it moving because I don't know how much time I
• 30:39
  really have here. So what do I got for the show
• 30:41
  later on in the show? Oh, dude, I got a couple of
• 30:44
  clips for you guys. All right, so interesting clip
• 30:47
  from Sailor on Peter McCormick. It was kind of like a drive by
• 30:50
  on me and us, but I I agree with the sentiment.
• 30:53
  And then, man, we got some crazy news in regards to the US
• 30:59
  national debt historic moment here.
• 31:02
  And then to wrap up today's show.
• 31:05
  I don't know if you. Guys saw my boy Eric Cason on
• 31:08
  the news desk. But I have to play that clip.
• 31:11
  I I did. Censor it a little bit, but
• 31:13
  shout out to Eric Cason. The the only message you need to
• 31:17
  hear from the Bitcoin 2026 conference.
• 31:20
  I'm gonna play for you at the end of today's show.
• 31:23
  So that's today's show for you guys.
• 31:25
  I'll be right back 'cause I I gotta keep it moving.
• 31:29
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  Sorry. See.
• 33:41
  Hey, see. So what?
• 33:42
  You killed me? You killed me on the rumble
• 33:44
  chat. What do you say?
• 33:45
  You're like WTF? He's bearish every other week.
• 33:48
  I'm not bearish every other week, bro.
• 33:51
  Maybe every other other week. And then I, I got to comment on
• 33:56
  one more thing down under Blues. Oh, you guys got to be hearing
• 34:00
  that. All right, all right, I, I got
• 34:02
  it. I got to keep it moving.
• 34:03
  But easy on the laughing. I just realized I'm not making
• 34:06
  my own case for myself here, that I'm not losing my mind
• 34:09
  'cause I'm literally doing a monologue in a room alone,
• 34:12
  laughing like a maniac. OK, I might be OK, I might be
• 34:17
  losing my mind. OK, I might be losing my mind.
• 34:21
  As we speak. You guys are watching me
• 34:23
  literally devolve in real time on this show because I'm just
• 34:27
  losing my mind. I'm, I'm literally losing my
• 34:29
  mind. It is what it is.
• 34:31
  Anyways, current Bitcoin price is 78,230.
• 34:34
  Oh my. Dude alright, I gotta keep going
• 34:36
  the discount. From all time high.
• 34:38
  Is a 38. Percent discount.
• 34:41
  The market cap is 1.57 trillion and the current block height the
• 34:47
  only universal time in the world.
• 34:50
  I mean besides like UTC, but then you got to do all the, you
• 34:53
  know, maths to get your dime 947,454.
• 34:58
  All right, anyways, I saw this guys.
• 35:02
  It's it's I I really like this even though on, you know, knee
• 35:07
  jerk drive by shot here. My initial reaction was like
• 35:11
  damn dude, Sailor just called us all dumb.
• 35:15
  Like he just called us dumb. Damn bro.
• 35:17
  Anyways, shouts out to what is this a Terry Tortuguero?
• 35:22
  Tortuguero interested in strategy and he goes.
• 35:26
  Have you heard of the Bernard Arnold test buy acid that
• 35:30
  someone richer than you, more culture than you, more
• 35:32
  intelligent than you will want to buy from you in a decade.
• 35:37
  I I like this. I like this framing.
• 35:40
  I haven't heard this yet after well, I mean, I heard it before
• 35:43
  you heard it, but I I haven't heard this framing.
• 35:45
  Yet though we have said in the past a lot like Beblin goods, I
• 35:50
  think Samson Mao was the first one to kind of bring that idea
• 35:53
  to my mind that as the thing about Bitcoin that is the most
• 35:57
  interesting is that as it gets more expensive, people want to
• 36:01
  buy it. It doesn't scare people away.
• 36:03
  Though in practice, I think we have seen the opposite happen,
• 36:08
  especially with people that are in shit coins.
• 36:11
  They're, you know, unit bias. They're like, oh, Bitcoin's too
• 36:13
  expensive. I'm going to go buy all this hot
• 36:15
  garbage and then maybe I can get the gains that Bitcoin did.
• 36:19
  But this reframing by Sailor is pretty interesting.
• 36:22
  It's a short. Clip here.
• 36:23
  I'll play it for you. If affluent, intelligent,
• 36:27
  cultured people want it, it's going to get more expensive.
• 36:31
  It's what I call the Barnard Arno test, right?
• 36:32
  If you want to preserve your wealth, you buy assets that
• 36:35
  someone richer than you, more cultured than you, more
• 36:39
  intelligent than you will want to buy from you in a decade.
• 36:45
  All right, Sorry, guys. I, I I.
• 36:49
  Forgot I can't laugh on the show.
• 36:50
  I can't have fun but Bros. Yo the drive bys is.
• 36:57
  Crazy here. So what?
• 36:59
  He said. We're all poor.
• 37:02
  We're all uncultured, we're all stupid, but hey, at least we own
• 37:12
  Bitcoin, and somewhere that is richer than us, more cultured
• 37:15
  and more intelligent than us will want it in the future.
• 37:19
  At least there's some hope for us Bros.
• 37:25
  Sorry, I, I, I think that I thought that was so funny.
• 37:28
  I'm like, wow, this is an interesting, this super
• 37:30
  interesting take here. And then I watch it.
• 37:33
  My first thought is like yo, he just called us stupid.
• 37:36
  And bored and uncultured. Oh.
• 37:41
  Man, sorry I I told you today's show is going to be a little
• 37:44
  light. Oh man, we are all dumb to say
• 37:48
  it's true. He called us.
• 37:50
  Mid charters bro. Oh man, dude, you know, you know
• 37:57
  wanna. All right, I'm Brad Grayable.
• 38:01
  Speak for yourself. I smart.
• 38:04
  You know most of the smart people that I know.
• 38:10
  Yeah, I'm getting cooked again. Most of the people, most of the
• 38:12
  smarter people that I know don't go around saying that they're
• 38:15
  smarter than everyone. But hey, maybe that's just a
• 38:17
  different a different heuristic. And then intra, intra Belton.
• 38:21
  I mean, who here has a Schwab account?
• 38:23
  Not me. Not me, dude.
• 38:27
  I know, I know the justice. Thank you so much.
• 38:31
  But everyone gets so mad when I laugh on the show.
• 38:33
  They're like, you want to be so serious.
• 38:35
  This is why we're going to go watch Bloomberg or the.
• 38:39
  Boring other Bitcoin. Podcasters, because they wear a
• 38:42
  suit and they're so serious and they talk in a monotone.
• 38:47
  I'm having a good time, man. It's Friday, you know Bitcoin
• 38:50
  price seems to be doing some. It's a little frothy.
• 38:56
  I've been losing my mind here all day, every every day of the
• 39:00
  week. I made it through the week
• 39:03
  without actually losing my mind. I'm looking forward to my
• 39:06
  weekend here. We're enjoying the casual Friday
• 39:10
  I didn't have to stream from my. House.
• 39:12
  But anyway, anyways, I feel good.
• 39:14
  I'm feeling good, you know, I got a good workout in yesterday.
• 39:18
  Body's not too bad though my hips are sore.
• 39:21
  Anyways. You guys don't care about my
• 39:22
  problem. You guys don't even care about
• 39:24
  me. You guys don't care about my
• 39:25
  problems. I'll get back to the signal.
• 39:29
  Without the trolling and the cynicism in that clip and making
• 39:34
  it personal and feeling. Attacked by Sailor.
• 39:38
  I do fundamentally agree with this idea and I I think that is
• 39:41
  a very strong framing and he hasn't said this before and and
• 39:45
  maybe maybe he has, but that is such a good sell for Bitcoin.
• 39:51
  It's like, look, I get it. No one understands the value
• 39:57
  proposition of Bitcoin yet, but they will in the future.
• 40:03
  And as we know, the metric we've been, you know, slinging around
• 40:06
  for years now is like what? There's 58, maybe there's 60
• 40:10
  plus millionaires in the world now and there's only 21 million
• 40:14
  Bitcoin. If every millionaire in the
• 40:17
  world wanted to get a single Bitcoin, they could not get one
• 40:20
  Bitcoin. In that context, that just shows
• 40:25
  you how valuable a thing Bitcoin is.
• 40:27
  That just shows you what true scarcity is.
• 40:31
  But putting a little wrinkle on that, why would they want
• 40:37
  Bitcoin in the 1st place? And that's what the conversation
• 40:41
  has, I would say maybe stalled recently because, you know,
• 40:46
  we're seeing that, yes, the institutions are coming into
• 40:48
  Bitcoin. Yes, Wall Street wants Bitcoin.
• 40:51
  Yes, we are starting to see this trend of people move away from
• 40:54
  real estate into Bitcoin, as I covered last week on Friday.
• 40:58
  Yes, we're starting to see potentially a repricing of gold
• 41:02
  into Bitcoin a a new hard money leader.
• 41:09
  And we're seeing that a lot of people are shying away from.
• 41:14
  Treasury shying away from the safest investment in the world.
• 41:20
  We're seeing obviously geopolitical, you know,
• 41:23
  calamity, we're seeing war. We're seeing, I think probably
• 41:28
  the starkest political divide, at least in my life.
• 41:33
  And then you realize like, oh, wait, you know, a neutral money
• 41:37
  that no one controls, that is hard capped, that I can send
• 41:40
  literally peer-to-peer around the world in seconds.
• 41:43
  Yeah, I'm pretty sure that very, very rich people will want this.
• 41:48
  And it is something I have said on the show before.
• 41:52
  And I, I don't remember if I got pushback from it and it sounded
• 41:57
  mean. I think Nico probably made fun
• 41:59
  of me a little bit. But I'm like, look, I know that
• 42:06
  when we got in the Bitcoin because we had nothing, we're
• 42:09
  like, oh, this is the people's money.
• 42:12
  This is for everyone. This is so that everyone can get
• 42:14
  ahead. And I still truly believe that.
• 42:18
  But then you kind of go into the numbers and it's most people
• 42:21
  that have no money saved. Most people are living paycheck
• 42:24
  to paycheck. You know, most people are having
• 42:26
  a hard time financially. And then you realize like, well,
• 42:31
  also, you know, most people have no money, period.
• 42:36
  So how do we get this into the hands of the very, very rich
• 42:39
  people so they can benefit us, so they can pump our bags?
• 42:44
  Sailor just keeps figuring it out, guys.
• 42:48
  He really is continuing to put on a master class in regards to
• 42:54
  Bitcoin and what or rather how you market Bitcoin.
• 43:02
  OK, All right, Let's see, Mahika.
• 43:05
  Hod all, let's go. Let me see can I read this?
• 43:08
  Yeah, yeah, I can read this. It's your friendly Mexican.
• 43:11
  Jodizo, it's F1 Miami, baby. I'm God.
• 43:16
  You got me, You got me. touché. Touché Mahika touché.
• 43:26
  Tell me again, dude, I'm literally the ROM Burgundy of
• 43:28
  Bitcoin podcast Bitcoin content. I'm Brom Burgundy.
• 43:34
  All right, anyways, let's, let's, let's keep it moving
• 43:36
  because it seems a little quiet up here.
• 43:39
  So guys, historic day. Well, yesterday was a historic
• 43:42
  day in U.S. history. It's really like I try not to be
• 43:51
  a doomer. I really do, you know, I'm
• 43:54
  human. That's why the pseudonym the
• 43:59
  name is Optimist Fields. It's something to live up to,
• 44:04
  but being naively optimistic every single day is extremely
• 44:09
  hard. It's a it's a 24/7 job.
• 44:15
  And man, it's really hard not to black pill right now.
• 44:19
  It's really hard not to just sit there and see everything on.
• 44:23
  Twitter and see everything in the insane asylum that is
• 44:26
  Twitter and not just have the thought constantly of it's so
• 44:30
  over boys. It's so over.
• 44:35
  But it's so over is always tempered with nothing ever
• 44:38
  happens. OK, so it's not it's not it's
• 44:40
  not completely over. There's there's some white pills
• 44:43
  here, but this news is not good. OK, this is not not good facts
• 44:49
  or sorry, not good stats we are seeing right now.
• 44:53
  And it just furthers conversation of why you need
• 44:57
  Bitcoin in particular. OK, I'll be right back.
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  want to give C-Suite a shout out.
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  Thank you for the $5 on Rumble. I'm starting the give Opti a
• 46:57
  window fund. Dude, let's start a let's get
• 47:00
  Opti out of the studio basement fund.
• 47:06
  Because I'm going crazy. You know those experiments?
• 47:08
  Where they lock people in dark rooms for like.
• 47:14
  I don't know days, months at a time or they try to do it for a
• 47:18
  month and the people literally lose their mind.
• 47:21
  I think that's what's happening to me, guys.
• 47:23
  I think that's. What happened to me?
• 47:28
  Yo, my name is not Oscar. It's close, but it's not Oscar.
• 47:33
  Dude, the chat, you guys are trying to dox me.
• 47:35
  That's crazy work, guys. All right?
• 47:37
  You know, don't. Try to dox me man sheesh.
• 47:42
  I'm Opti. That's my name, anyways.
• 47:45
  This is absolutely insane. All right, I'll, I'll get
• 47:47
  serious for a little bit. So this on the Independent.
• 47:49
  It is actually was going everywhere yesterday.
• 47:52
  But this should literally terrify you.
• 47:54
  And it goes. U.S.
• 47:55
  National debt is now bigger than the economy for the first time
• 47:58
  since World War 2. Lawmakers urged to stop the
• 48:04
  bleeding and put the country on a more sustainable fiscal path.
• 48:07
  So going here and I think these numbers are a little little off
• 48:11
  at least. What U.S.
• 48:14
  Debt clock's telling us But the US national debt is now larger
• 48:17
  than the economy as a whole, hitting levels not seen since
• 48:20
  the aftermath of World War. 2 New data is revealed Figures.
• 48:24
  Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Thursday
• 48:28
  placed the total debt held by the American public at 31.27
• 48:32
  trillion as of March 31st. Meanwhile, the country's nominal
• 48:39
  gross domestic product, or the GDP, was estimated at 31.22
• 48:45
  trillion, meaning the national debt as a percentage of GDP
• 48:48
  stands at 100.2%, putting it on course to challenge the historic
• 48:54
  106% recorded in 1946 during demobilization.
• 49:02
  The debt stood at 99 1/2% of GDP at the end of 2025.
• 49:08
  Revealing how quickly it has climbed.
• 49:11
  And then it goes on to, you know, they're talking about some
• 49:15
  fiscal responsibility. They mentioned some quotes about
• 49:18
  Trump saying, you know, the we're doing great.
• 49:29
  Here's the Here's the good quote here though.
• 49:33
  This time, the borrowing isn't born from a seismic global
• 49:36
  conflict, but rather a total bipartisan abdication of making
• 49:41
  hard choices. The higher we allow our debt to
• 49:44
  grow, the more we erode our own prosperity and that of future
• 49:48
  generations. Rising debt compromises
• 49:51
  affordability by slowing economic growth, pushing up
• 49:54
  interest rates, and increasing inflationary pressures.
• 49:59
  Debt squeezes our budget with massive interest cost.
• 50:01
  It exposes US needs needlessly to challenges from geopolitical
• 50:05
  rivals, and without corrective action, rising debt could.
• 50:08
  Spark a devastating fiscal crisis.
• 50:12
  We need to stop the bleeding. Yeah, I mean, totally agreed
• 50:18
  with that last part here. And here's a, you know, bar
• 50:21
  chart showing us just how crazy high the debt has gotten, you
• 50:28
  know, since a very familiar time, the O 8 financial crisis.
• 50:34
  It's almost like they needed to print money to continue things
• 50:39
  going. As they were.
• 50:41
  And it's almost like again in 2020, they need to print even
• 50:45
  more money to keep the game going, to keep the music going.
• 50:50
  And now we're at the point where we've crossed the 100% debt to
• 50:54
  GDP ratio. We know they're going to keep
• 50:58
  printing money. I don't know if you guys have
• 51:00
  been seeing, but it seems like the Treasury has been doing
• 51:03
  billion dollar buybacks. Basically, you know,
• 51:06
  quantitative easing without what's it QE not QEQE.
• 51:12
  What if bit corners have been saying forever they have to
• 51:15
  continue to print money? How are they able to fund wars?
• 51:20
  It's by printing money. I think the number I saw and my
• 51:26
  numbers are off. But I think we spent more money
• 51:32
  so far in Iran to maintain this war than we did in which one?
• 51:40
  Which one was it? Was it Iraq or Afghanistan?
• 51:43
  I I forget which one it was. Let me let me Google this so I
• 51:47
  can get this for you. Spent more money in Iran war
• 51:55
  then. Was it Iraq?
• 51:57
  I think it was Iraq, yeah. I can't find it.
• 52:09
  I can't find it. But apparently it's cost US
• 52:12
  taxpayers a trillion dollars and they're saying we've only spent
• 52:16
  about like 25 billion. Oh, here we go.
• 52:20
  Here we go. I found it.
• 52:24
  The Iran war cost as much as Afghanistan during the surge.
• 52:29
  Crazy talk guys. Absolutely crazy talk guys.
• 52:37
  So are you surprised that we're seeing our debt go up,
• 52:44
  especially when we're being run by MMT lunatics?
• 52:47
  That what? What's their favorite thing to
• 52:48
  say? Debt is future prosperity.
• 52:52
  We owe ourselves today. It's unsustainable, guys.
• 52:57
  This is why we buy Bitcoin. They can't print more Bitcoin.
• 53:01
  Everything divided by 21 million if you hold a portion of Bitcoin
• 53:06
  long term. If you sell your dollars for
• 53:09
  Bitcoin, well, one, you're protecting your purchasing
• 53:14
  power. But two, all of the world's
• 53:16
  dollars are going to eventually have to pile in and buy Bitcoin.
• 53:21
  This is completely unsustainable.
• 53:24
  This is why bitcoiners keep saying the big print is coming.
• 53:28
  This is why we have the meme. Nothing stops his train.
• 53:33
  Like, is it a coincidence now in Big 26 that our debt?
• 53:39
  To GDP ratio is the highest it was since the last World war.
• 53:46
  And yet we're not in a World War, you know, like we're not in
• 53:49
  a World War, but the debt to GDP ratio kind of implying the
• 53:54
  opposite. You guys have to hear that
• 54:02
  America 7382. It doesn't make any sense.
• 54:05
  We were in Afghanistan for like 12 years.
• 54:07
  Yeah, I know, I know. That's the crazy part.
• 54:14
  Look it up, man. I'm like, I'm almost positive
• 54:17
  that that's that's the statistic.
• 54:19
  I think the entire Afghanistan war for 12 years cost us like
• 54:24
  25. Billion or something like that.
• 54:28
  This war in it now cost us that much in about 3.
• 54:33
  Months. It's because of inflation
• 54:36
  obviously, but also because the military technology is more
• 54:40
  advanced, therefore more more costly.
• 54:44
  That's why the bill was racking up.
• 54:48
  The Big 26? You, you like that?
• 54:52
  Oh man. Anyways guys this is not good
• 54:56
  but. The numbers that the independent
• 54:59
  is using and this is of course. Independent, they're UK, they
• 55:06
  said here the new numbers are the US national debt is what was
• 55:12
  it, 31.27 trillion. I I think that's even off U.S.
• 55:18
  debt clock. Aren't we all watching that that
• 55:21
  we're about to pass $40 trillion in U.S.
• 55:25
  National debt? So we might have already been
• 55:29
  past that point, but the the headlines now are first time
• 55:35
  since the World War we have passed 100% debt to GDP ratio
• 55:43
  which. For for for the average person
• 55:46
  to put in context of our finances compared to the state
• 55:52
  level, that means that you have more debt than your productivity
• 55:59
  than the money you make. Let's put it in context.
• 56:05
  Say you make $3000 a month. That means that your monthly
• 56:10
  debt is what, like $3100 a month?
• 56:15
  I don't know, math's hard, but it's just it.
• 56:19
  This doesn't work. All right, this this doesn't
• 56:21
  work. Hence why there's a lot of talk
• 56:23
  and I'm again, I'm not a, I'm not a trusted plan guy by any
• 56:27
  means, but hence why there's been a lot of talk from like the
• 56:33
  Simon Dixons of the world or even Tom Wongo.
• 56:35
  They're saying very similar things as we are seeing a
• 56:37
  monetary reset or we are seeing a reset of the geopolitical
• 56:41
  chess board. Now with all that in context,
• 56:45
  just as your basic heuristic, everything does get kind of put
• 56:52
  in in at least a understanding light.
• 56:55
  Now you now you're starting to realize why everything is
• 56:58
  happening in the world right now is because everyone realizes
• 57:01
  this is not sustainable. The way the world has worked up
• 57:04
  to this point is unsustainable. Now, what does that mean?
• 57:07
  Where is the opportunity for you as an individual?
• 57:10
  Well, one, obviously buy as much Bitcoin as possible, hold as
• 57:13
  much Bitcoin as possible for the long term.
• 57:16
  But the Third Point is we are whether it's going to be good or
• 57:20
  bad, we are going to be living in a world that is.
• 57:25
  Completely unrecognizable to the world that we grew up in, to the
• 57:29
  world that we're used to. So you really got to not only
• 57:34
  look at the chess board, look at where we currently are, but
• 57:38
  understand that. Things are going to be different
• 57:41
  and I have to prepare for that change.
• 57:44
  I think that's one of the main things of the show that is just
• 57:47
  dawning on me right now. Change is upon us, and if you're
• 57:52
  you're holding on to a world that doesn't exist anymore
• 57:56
  because it's comfortable, you're going to be in for a rude
• 58:00
  awakening. The transition can be easy if
• 58:04
  you just start saving in Bitcoin.
• 58:06
  The transition could be absolutely brutal if you wake up
• 58:11
  one day and you can't go to the bank and get your money, or you
• 58:15
  wake up one day and we're in like a whatever global
• 58:19
  recession, depression, and our money's literally worthless if
• 58:23
  you don't hold Bitcoin. It's a crazy world we live in,
• 58:28
  guys. It's a.
• 58:29
  Crazy world we live in, Arthur said it best.
• 58:33
  Government is printing, and we'll have to print more.
• 58:36
  Exactly. It's literally that simple,
• 58:39
  guys. It's literally that simple.
• 58:46
  If it's not sustainable then stop worrying about.
• 58:48
  I'm not worried about it, I'm just I'm trying.
• 58:49
  Like the point is, a lot of people don't.
• 58:53
  Understand what we understand. They don't understand what is
• 58:56
  happening and our point as bitcoiners is to try to get as
• 59:02
  many people. Onto the safety boats out of the
• 59:07
  exit door, opting out of this system and saving in Bitcoin.
• 59:14
  So yeah, I'm a little doomer sometimes, but what are you
• 59:17
  going to do about that debt? Nothing bro, there's nothing to
• 59:23
  do. The world doesn't spin, that's
• 59:25
  for sure. Yell flat Earther's in the chat.
• 59:30
  Flat Earther's in the chat. OK, anyways, we're having fun
• 59:34
  here. I'm I'm ending today's show with
• 59:36
  even more fun this. Is like my favorite clip.
• 59:39
  I absolutely love Eric Cason. I did censor it a little bit.
• 59:43
  I did have to put some bleeps into this because we are on
• 59:45
  YouTube. But this one's, this is just a
• 59:48
  fun one. You want to stick around for
• 59:50
  this one. You're going to have some laughs
• 59:51
  on this one if you didn't see it.
• 59:52
  Anyways, I'll be right back. I want to give a shout out to
• 59:56
  our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
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  To get 15. Percent off anything on the
• 1:01:27
  store. Oh, wait, actually someone in
• 1:01:34
  the chat reminded me of something that I that I wanted
• 1:01:37
  to say in the in the last segment at yesterday, same day
• 1:01:43
  that we found out that we have, you know, the highest debt to
• 1:01:48
  GDP ratio since World War. Two, we also saw.
• 1:01:54
  The S&P 500 go to all time highs and everyone's cheering on about
• 1:02:00
  the S&P 500 all time highs and not the debt to.
• 1:02:04
  GDP ratio and it is just super interesting that everyone's
• 1:02:09
  literally just cheering on the fact that their money is.
• 1:02:12
  Getting worse and worse and worse that we're losing
• 1:02:15
  purchasing power. It's just crazy clown world that
• 1:02:19
  we live in. It's just.
• 1:02:21
  It is amazing sometimes, just as the saying goes, you know how is
• 1:02:27
  paved with good intentions and a lot of people and sometimes even
• 1:02:32
  me and probably you like we. Cheer on our own demise.
• 1:02:37
  It's like forgive them father, they know not what they do.
• 1:02:40
  Like we literally we're we're so small minded sometimes that we
• 1:02:47
  might take a A an L as a win and we cheer it on.
• 1:02:54
  Man, I'm getting myself doomy. I'm getting myself doomy here.
• 1:02:57
  We're we're black pill. I'm black Pilling myself.
• 1:03:00
  But on that. Yeah, what you, what you got?
• 1:03:04
  What's what's your problem with Taco Bell, man?
• 1:03:09
  We're going to end this one a little fun, OK, Hey, I black
• 1:03:12
  pilled a little bit, but we're going to be we're done black
• 1:03:16
  Pilling because we're going to play one of my favorite
• 1:03:19
  bitcoiners. Clip from the Bitcoin 2026 Las
• 1:03:24
  Vegas This is this is my favorite clip and it's even
• 1:03:27
  funnier to me because I had to censor it.
• 1:03:30
  It makes it even. Like I was laughing while I was.
• 1:03:32
  Doing this this morning. But this a if you're still here
• 1:03:37
  and you get 1 message from today's.
• 1:03:40
  Show this is it. Welcome back to the Bitcoin
• 1:03:45
  Magazine news desk powered by Mara.
• 1:03:48
  I'm the Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo, joined by rock star
• 1:03:52
  developer and Eric Cason, 2 bona fide cypherpunks.
• 1:03:57
  We have the real thing for you here today, folks.
• 1:04:00
  Gentlemen, we just saw a a pretty compelling documentary.
• 1:04:03
  Some of it was captured, might have been just down the strip.
• 1:04:06
  Let's unpack some thoughts. I think first and foremost we
• 1:04:09
  need to start with the true message of this film is the
• 1:04:13
  state. The state hates you.
• 1:04:15
  It always has hated you. And this is a documentary that
• 1:04:18
  goes into just how deeply the state fucking hates you.
• 1:04:21
  And one of the things I like the most about the film is that the
• 1:04:26
  retards pushing the dialogue right now specifically around
• 1:04:29
  that the CIA created Bitcoin. This whole film is about why did
• 1:04:33
  they then spend $6 billion specifically trying to get
• 1:04:36
  Julian Assange, who's being empowered by Bitcoin at the
• 1:04:39
  point in time? And that's how he was able to
• 1:04:41
  extend the thesis of WikiLeaks. So the big thing I want people
• 1:04:45
  to take away from today is that the state hates you and that you
• 1:04:48
  should prepare your life accordingly because people like
• 1:04:51
  Julian Assange are the example of what happens.
• 1:04:54
  And when you start actually trying to execute around showing
• 1:04:57
  that you are a free and sovereign individual, you'll
• 1:05:00
  find that there's actually a cage that forms around you quite
• 1:05:02
  quickly. And things like Bitcoin, Noster
• 1:05:05
  and other powerful decentralized technologies that utilize
• 1:05:09
  asymmetric cryptography are some of the most powerful tools that
• 1:05:12
  we have to resist this. Oh man, bro, Eric Cason's the
• 1:05:23
  goat. I love him.
• 1:05:25
  I mean, what more, what more do I need to say?
• 1:05:28
  I don't think there's any more for me to say than just playing
• 1:05:31
  Eric Cason's clip. You know, we could, we could, we
• 1:05:36
  can focus on arguably what people are saying, the bad of
• 1:05:43
  the Bitcoin 2026 conference, but we also got to focus on the good
• 1:05:47
  and that's that we get a classic Eric Cason crash out on the
• 1:05:51
  stream. Saying what we all know to be
• 1:05:55
  true. The state hates you.
• 1:05:59
  What's the what's the, the other one?
• 1:06:03
  There's the state, and then there's you and the state hates
• 1:06:07
  you. I think that's what it is.
• 1:06:14
  Nailed it and nailed it. Oh man.
• 1:06:21
  Anyways, guys, it's Friday. We made it another week, you
• 1:06:27
  know, part of what we. Do here, or rather maybe part of
• 1:06:32
  what I do here, since I'm the only one that's ever here, you
• 1:06:35
  know, I'm the one that I'm the one that does the show.
• 1:06:38
  Is obviously we cover the news so that you.
• 1:06:43
  Guys can get the big headlines here, try to cover the news,
• 1:06:48
  give you the big headlines. But when I rebranded our last
• 1:06:54
  segment to the culture, it was kind of with two things in mind.
• 1:06:59
  One, to continue to spread the Bitcoin culture that I love so
• 1:07:03
  much that I grew up in that like, you know, forge.
• 1:07:06
  Me and then there's a double, double entendre where I can
• 1:07:10
  cover cultural events that are either Bitcoin related or you
• 1:07:15
  know, I think people need to talk about that.
• 1:07:18
  They're kind of outside of the Bitcoin echo chamber and so half
• 1:07:24
  the time maybe, maybe it's just on the Fridays because it's the
• 1:07:27
  last show of the week. I want to have a little fun.
• 1:07:29
  And you know. It's like casual Friday type,
• 1:07:32
  like unbutton your tie the show you know you're about to get out
• 1:07:35
  of work. Hopefully going to have a good
• 1:07:38
  weekend. It's like we got to we got to
• 1:07:41
  sneak in, we got to sneak in the signal signal in there when we
• 1:07:44
  have a little fun on a Friday and shouts out to Eric Kayson.
• 1:07:48
  He's one of my favorite. He's one of my favorite dudes in
• 1:07:51
  general. He's a he's such a good guy.
• 1:07:54
  He's also. Probably 1 of the more crazy
• 1:07:58
  guys, and I say that lovingly. I'm also a crazy guy.
• 1:08:02
  He's he's one of my. Favorites.
• 1:08:04
  Make sure you follow some Eric Kayson.
• 1:08:05
  Go read his book Crypto Sovereignty.
• 1:08:08
  I swear he always repeats the same thing at these conferences.
• 1:08:12
  The state hates you. So one message that you need to
• 1:08:20
  remember on the show. Oh, yeah, this is what it is.
• 1:08:23
  There's no red. There's no blue.
• 1:08:25
  There's the state and it hates you.
• 1:08:31
  That's how the that's how the saying goes, bro.
• 1:08:34
  Oh man. Anyways, guys, we made it
• 1:08:38
  another week. Gratefully, I was able to be in
• 1:08:44
  the studio all week. Didn't hear too much background
• 1:08:47
  noise. I'm hoping, I'm hoping they're
• 1:08:50
  done by today. I don't know.
• 1:08:53
  I don't know what. We're going to do if they're not
• 1:08:55
  done and it gets a little crazy by Monday, but we should be back
• 1:09:01
  to normal, you know, crazy week here because of the conference.
• 1:09:10
  I'm losing my mind. I'm talking to myself in a room.
• 1:09:14
  I'm laughing like a maniac by myself, talking to imaginary
• 1:09:19
  people on the other side of this computer.
• 1:09:23
  But we made it all right, guys. We made it anyways.
• 1:09:27
  State doesn't like the word sovereign.
• 1:09:30
  Yes, 100%. Anyways, guys, you already know
• 1:09:32
  the deal. It is Friday, so we do got some
• 1:09:35
  homework for you guys this weekend.
• 1:09:37
  It's not really big homework, it's just some homework.
• 1:09:40
  It's the same homework that I tell you every single day.
• 1:09:45
  Get outside, you know, touch some grass.
• 1:09:50
  Enjoy the sun if it's sunny around where you are, get some
• 1:09:53
  exercise in. Call your loved ones.
• 1:09:56
  I if you're like me, I forget to call all of my friends and
• 1:09:59
  family. I'm just so caught up on what
• 1:10:02
  I'm doing that I got to remind myself to do the same thing.
• 1:10:07
  When I say eat good, call your loved ones, work out, get some
• 1:10:14
  sun, guys, get some sun. When you wake up in the morning,
• 1:10:18
  wake up, you know when the sun's rising, get some sun on your
• 1:10:20
  eyes. Drink your coffee out on your
• 1:10:22
  patio. Or you know, whatever you got at
• 1:10:25
  your house, on your apartment. You know, open up the window in
• 1:10:28
  your. Apartment stick your head out
• 1:10:29
  and of course. The probably the most important
• 1:10:31
  one of all of this, make sure you are stacking some Bitcoin
• 1:10:36
  and taking it into cold storage. Make sure you continue to
• 1:10:38
  accumulate Bitcoin. Everything else is just for your
• 1:10:41
  mental well-being, for your financial well-being.
• 1:10:45
  It is. Make sure you are buying
• 1:10:47
  Bitcoin. You know 10,000 steps I am.
• 1:10:53
  Imaginary now, bro, I'm real. I know you are.
• 1:10:56
  I know you are. It's just to me, I'm just
• 1:11:00
  talking to a computer here. I'm talking to a camera.
• 1:11:03
  Like when I look at you, I'm talking into a camera.
• 1:11:08
  Not a real person. Drink some coffee, smoke.
• 1:11:12
  No, no, we do not condone that. We do not condone that.
• 1:11:17
  But yeah, guys, look, you guys can sign off.
• 1:11:22
  But but I do have something that I've been thinking about the
• 1:11:26
  last couple of days, basically because I'm going crazy is like,
• 1:11:33
  as much as I love what I do here and as much as I am so blessed
• 1:11:39
  to do this because you guys love what we do, I'm, I'm also
• 1:11:47
  realizing, you know, I am getting older.
• 1:11:51
  And as much as I think this is like my life purpose and my
• 1:11:55
  calling, sometimes I realize I, I need to like, take care of me,
• 1:12:01
  you know, focus on me, make sure I'm doing well because it.
• 1:12:06
  All. Stems from me.
• 1:12:09
  You know, simply may go on with or without me.
• 1:12:13
  So I got to. Focus on me, you know, take your
• 1:12:15
  own side. Take care of yourself, guys.
• 1:12:19
  You know, what's that Bob Marley quote?
• 1:12:21
  Like, what's, what is it? What's the point of getting all
• 1:12:25
  the world's gold if you lose your soul or something like
• 1:12:28
  that? Like what's the point?
• 1:12:31
  Of acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible if you can't enjoy it
• 1:12:35
  because. You're mentally not healthy,
• 1:12:38
  you're physically not healthy. I don't think we we necessarily
• 1:12:42
  talk about that enough. This is why I do the sign off
• 1:12:45
  every single day. Eat good, call your friends and
• 1:12:47
  family. I know it sounds cheesy, work
• 1:12:51
  out, get your steps in, get some sun, but of course buy some
• 1:12:56
  Bitcoin. He is dumping us someone.
• 1:13:00
  Hugged this guy. Like, I'm chill, guys.
• 1:13:03
  I'm chill, all right? Yeah.
• 1:13:05
  Don't forget to thank God. I like that one.
• 1:13:08
  That's a good one. That's a good addition to it.
• 1:13:12
  That's a good addition to it. All right guys.
• 1:13:14
  Anyways, I've been rambling. You guys don't want to hear you
• 1:13:16
  need a vacation. Recommend me Not Now Pro.
• 1:13:19
  You're tripping. You're tripping.
• 1:13:23
  Get your own show, guys. You're tripping.
• 1:13:26
  No way. This is my show.
• 1:13:28
  This is my show. Haven't you noticed?
• 1:13:30
  I've been the only one here all week.
• 1:13:31
  This is this is my show. All right.
• 1:13:35
  Guys, I'm good, OK? I'm good actually shouts at the
• 1:13:38
  Mexico Hutto. He did message me on what was
• 1:13:41
  that Monday? He's like damn bro you good?
• 1:13:43
  You seem you seemed a little down.
• 1:13:47
  It's just life. Yeah, I know it's just life.
• 1:13:50
  But you know, I'll take back what I said.
• 1:13:52
  You know, I did say a minute ago you guys don't care about me,
• 1:13:55
  but some of you guys do. OK.
• 1:13:57
  I appreciate you. I love you guys.
• 1:13:59
  Off to get a bad Eli too. And you know I'm working on that
• 1:14:01
  one anyways guys. Anyways guys have a good.
• 1:14:08
  Weekend We will be back on Monday.
• 1:14:10
  I hope you enjoyed today's show. I appreciate every single one of
• 1:14:13
  you guys. Have a good rest of your day.
• 1:14:17
  Peace out. You sure bro?
• 1:14:21
  Yeah. Dude, I'm fine.
• 1:14:22
  I'm just losing my mind. It's OK, you know?
• 1:14:24
  Hey, I'm just leaning into the crazy at this point.
• 1:14:28
  I'm leaning into the crazy. It's OK.
• 1:14:31
  Why am I holding on to not, you know, to being sane like you
• 1:14:35
  guys like me, when actually one more thing.
• 1:14:37
  I, I I'm going to leave you on this story.
• 1:14:40
  Because I just talked about Eric Cason.
• 1:14:44
  I remember talking to Eric Cason last year.
• 1:14:47
  What's it last year? Yeah, last year at the
• 1:14:49
  conference. And I think I've said the story
• 1:14:52
  on the show before, and I was talking to Eric and I think we
• 1:14:56
  were at dinner or something, or I don't remember where we were,
• 1:14:59
  but I'm like, yo, Eric, like. What's up bro?
• 1:15:02
  How you doing? Good to see you.
• 1:15:04
  It's been too long. He's like, hey man, what's up?
• 1:15:07
  And, you know, we just started talking and I'm like, dude.
• 1:15:09
  Eric I I absolutely love the clips going around of you, bro.
• 1:15:14
  Like you're killing it. You're like.
• 1:15:16
  Your. Rants are epic, they're so good.
• 1:15:19
  And he stops and. Looks at me and he's like.
• 1:15:23
  I. I think the Bitcoin community
• 1:15:26
  wants me to go crazy because I just go absolutely batshit
• 1:15:30
  bananas, Indies, rants, I absolutely lose my cool.
• 1:15:34
  I go crazy ranting and everyone comes up to me and.
• 1:15:39
  They're like, that was the best friend ever.
• 1:15:41
  I love you bro. Do it more.
• 1:15:43
  And he's like, you guys literally want me to go crazy.
• 1:15:46
  I am losing my mind. But at least you guys are
• 1:15:50
  getting the content right. It's all about the content.
• 1:15:53
  It's all. For the content so.
• 1:15:56
  Peace out guys, I appreciate you.
• 1:15:59
  I'll see you guys on Monday. Enjoy your weekend.
• 1:16:03
  Until then, make sure you check out all the other content going
• 1:16:07
  on on our channel. Hurley, Dante, Rustin, Ocean's.
• 1:16:11
  Sophie's taking a little break right now.
• 1:16:13
  Or she actually. She's doing Rumble exclusive
• 1:16:15
  shows, but no Sophie this week because she's out.
• 1:16:18
  Of the house, or rather the house.
• 1:16:21
  Dude, I'm like, dude, I'm living in the.
• 1:16:25
  Studio and I just called it a house.
• 1:16:28
  Wow, I am going crazy. She's not going to be in the
• 1:16:35
  studio because of the construction.
• 1:16:38
  So next week. Anyways, love you guys, peace
• 1:16:41
  out. I'll catch you on Monday.
• 1:16:44
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:16:48
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:16:51
  independence.