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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I am live from the Tommy John studio here in
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: my hotel room in Oxford, Mississippi. We'll get to that,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: my compadre, my BFF professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, Simon,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Hello Chad.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: How are we doing?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Brother? I'm gonna tell you a quick story.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: I'm in Oxford.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I'm in Oxford because a good buddy of mine. His
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: name is right Thompson, brilliant writer who's been at ESPN
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: for a long time, has written some of the most
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: legendary stories for ESPN, from the Johnny Manzel story to
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the Tiger Wood story to the Michael Jordan's story. We
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: once together came up with an idea that he would
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: do an entire issue of ESPN the magazine about how
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: sports helped New Orleans heal after Katrina. The ten years
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: after Katrina, He's got a big book coming out called
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: The Barn. It's not about sports, It's about Emmett til
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the murder of Emmettil here in Mississippi and where Wright
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: is from. So a bunch of us flew down in
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Mississippi to surprise him for a boat like a mini
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: book party. Right, And we were hanging out at Writes
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: last night. And if you are someone who likes long
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: form storytelling and magazine writing, going back to the GQ
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Esquire days for an audience that today is ever shrinking,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: but back then, like it was, you know what you
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: wanted to be and do with your life, which I
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: was lucky enough to get to do in different ways
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: as an editor. It was a great night. A bunch
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: of us were hanging out at Rights, telling old stories whatever.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: But this is a group that goes pretty hard. And
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: it was late at night when I got back to
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: my hotel. And as you know, I'm basically blind. When
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I take out my contacts, cannot see a thing. Get
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: to my hotel last night, all the lights are on.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And when you get into a hotel, like the night
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: stand lights are on, and they have different switches, and
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: overhead lights have different switches, and hallway lights have switches,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: and bathrooms have switches. I took out my contacts before
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I had turned off any of the lights, and I
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: find the switches for everything except one overhead light. The
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: overhead light. Cannot find the switch. I'm looking around, I'd
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: have to feel the walls because I'm totally blind at
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: this point. Cannot find them. I'm hitting every switch. It's
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: just the same hallway bathroom for your lights that keep
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: coming on and off. I'm like, I don't know what
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: to do. I called the front desk. It's not at
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: a time at night where like there's multiple people on
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the front desk. It's late night, early morning. I called
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: the front desk. I'm like, I got a strange question.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I promise you I'm gonna remember this in the morning. Like,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not crazy. I cannot find the light switch for
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: my room. Do you have any idea where they keep
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: the light switch for the overhead lights in these rooms?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: He's like, you mean, like, do I have a map
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: of the electrical of the room. I'm like, I know,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: it's not ideal. And then I realized he may have
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: thought I was trying to get him up to my
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: room at one o'clock in the morning in the middle
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: of Oxford, Mississippi, and like my creative way of doing
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: it was saying I can't find my light switch. So
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: I said, you know what, I'll figure it out. I
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: hung up the phone, and then I said to myself,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to sleep with the light on all night.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: You're just gonna have to do it. You can't find
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the light switch. And then I gave myself a new
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Rockney speech and I said, nope, I can find this
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: light switch. So once again I felt around every single wall.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I hit all the same light switches. I finally found
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the light switch right next to the thurmishstaff for the room.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: It looked exactly like the thurmomstaff, so it wasn't entirely
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: on me. I think it's bad design, but I did
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: find the light switch, and I did get to go
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: to sleep.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: Now I'm with you about the hotel lights. I've been
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: in hotels where are no switches, right, They just assume
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: you touch the lamps and the lamps go off. Now
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: it's yes, that new technology really threw me for a
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: loop because I did the same thing. I had to
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: call it down an ass.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: But oh my god, so it's not just me.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: I was waiting for you to say that you hit
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: enough switches that also in your bed started spinning in circles,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: and it was just like love room.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: But my bed did me to switch to start spinning.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I can tell you that right now. All right, listen,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: let's get into it.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: Brother.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: We got to talk about today is our NFL Week
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: two Best Bets episode where Simon and I narrowed down
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: our five picks in the Favorite podcast one hundred thousand
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  Speaker 1: six five. Sign up now at Favorites dot Action network
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• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls Better of the Week, our survivor
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  Speaker 1: Simon's Biggest Bets, our boosted money line Underdog parlay plus
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  Speaker 1: by popular demand. We didn't do the round robin money
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: line Underdog probably last week. We will do it again
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: this week. Have no fear bets to rolling in lines
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: removing decisions need to be made. As our old friend
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: and Volume podcast boss Colin Coward likes to say, there's
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: a sea of money out.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, Favorites pot is presented by bet three
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• 5:38
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• 6:08
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• 6:10
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• 6:15
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• 6:22
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• 6:25
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• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Sign up favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com. As always Simon
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: how inside we are. Lines move based in our conversations.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: The pros feel compelled to weigh in on on our opinions.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: And we got a lot of calls this week, Simon,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: let's do it shop.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Calls, Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: Range, telephone range, somebody saying maybe yeah.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: I would say the pros are feeling really good head
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: end of this week chat. They think that the public
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: is doing exactly what they do every year. Right, they're
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: overreacting to the previous week, and you're getting a lot
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: of value on these lines. And we've seen just since
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: our Tuesday show a lot of movement. Right. So let's
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: start off with the game we loved Denver. We knew
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: that that was a good spot. We knew the pros
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: would like it. That number was going up to three
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: and a half. Now it's down to two and a half.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Almost every book, right, Chad, So no shock or there.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals, the line we loved six six and a half,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: it's down to five five and a half. A lot
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: of books. Another position that the pros are feeling the
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: same way we do. Right, It's a little bit of
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: an overreaction. We're all worried about Joe Burrow's risks, right.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think anyone's overlooking that spot. It just it
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: feels like they weren't as bad as people perceived their
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: previous week. Now this line's moved too much. I'm shocked
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: that this is dipped down to five, just because what
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: we talked about, right, Chad, this is gonna be the
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: most teased game of the week, right, Oh yeah, everyone's
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: teasing this. So pretty shocking that numbers come down so much.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it going to a game we didn't really
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: talk about. I like the forty nine ers. Every probably
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: talk to. They like Minnesota once again, So they liked
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: them last week against the Giants, they like them again
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers team. It's pretty simple, right,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers historically have struggled in Minnesota. It's a
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: short week, they're on the road to forty nine ers,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: so I get it. I just think they're overlooking that.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: You know, this is one of the best defenses in
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: football and the best run blockings teams in football, playing
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: against a team that they overachieved, right against that Giants team,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: they only really scored twenty one points on offense. Like,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: I just think people are going a little too crazy
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: with the sam Donal love.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we're going deep into that game. I think
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I'm with you like I'm in love with the forty
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: nine ers right now.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Another favorite though, that the pros love Chad that we
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: talked a little bit about. We were little unsure of
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: the number. Detroit try. I mean, I've seen this now
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: get up to a couple of books in minus eight.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: It's gone down back to minus seven and a half.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: The Pros are not scared about taking that seven and
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: a half. They love detroiting this spot against a banged
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: up Bucks team that I think people are a little
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: overrating them a little bit right because they just played
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: the worst defensive football. Happy for Baker get his flowers
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: for a week. We assume he comes crashing down to
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: earth here. That's what the professions are looking at. We'll
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: keep it really quick here. Panthers, pros love Panthers. No
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: one wants to fucking hear it. I get it. We'll
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: keep it moving off that one. Me and you talk
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: about the Raiders right that number touch ten, it's back
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: down to eight and a half. I'm probably just because
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I read my Man Evans article. We're probably end up
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: putting them our survival pool, just because the Ravens historically
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: they don't lose in the spot. And the number tells
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: another story of these teams tend to bounce back at
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: home as big favorites, just winning out right, right, we're
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: not talking about spread. So pretty interesting. The pros have
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: coming so heavy. It's back down to eight and a half, which,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: again we talk all the time. That's a key tease
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: number now, right, So the books you're letting people tease
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: down at two and a half. That's a big deal.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: So pretty interesting that numbers move so much. Last one again,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: me and you love and I think I might end
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: up as one of our five. The professionals love green
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: Bay here, Chad, they are loving green Bay. That number
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: was up to three and a half. It is down
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: to two and a half in most books at this point.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: So it could be because Lafleur left the door open
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: for Jordan Love coming back. I think that's a smoke screen.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: I think we're really betting this on the floor. This
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: team is a dog against and then consistent Anthony Richardson right,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: like it kind of feels like I stolen last week.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: I do feel more comfortable taking Green Bay here. So
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: pretty shocking now the pros have coming so heavy that
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: despite all the public money coming in on this Colts team,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: it has gone from three and a half down to
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: two and a half Chad acrossing two key numbers.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: That's uh, We're gonna have to get into it, There's
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: no doubt about it. I will say one thing about
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the Panthers. You know how much I love Stucky and
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Raybon on the Action Network podcast and their Sunday six
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: pack that they do that it's live on YouTube Wednesday nights.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: That's part of the podcast that comes out Thursdays. Stuck.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: He put the Panthers and he did he put him in,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: He put him in their six pack. We're not going
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: to do that, I can promise you right now. A
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: couple couple of things to keep in mind, because there
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: are certain trends that I don't want to repeat every
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: single time, but they are applicable to a lot of
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: the games we're going to talk about in weeks one
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: and two. One to five and a half point underdogs
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: seventy seven, forty four and three, sixty four percent since
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. You know, it's four and eight in week one,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: so should we expect a regression. Probably, there's usually overreaction.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's over reaction week favorites of one to three and
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: a half again, forty three percent in September the past
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: twenty years in the first three weeks forty two percent
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: since two thousand and fourteen, flip side eight and four
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: and week one. So we're definitely going to have some
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: conversation here about the opportunities. Another opportunity to buy low
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: this week. Over the past twenty years, when two winless
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: teams meet, the underdog is sixty six percent against the spread.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: In week two, it's sixty eight percent. If two teams
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: are a winless it almost always makes sense to take
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the points. This week, it's a couple of teams we
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: talked about, the Giants, the Packers, the Browns, the Raiders,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: and the Titans, which we talked about the other day.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: All right, here we go. First game up, We're gonna
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: talk about a favorite. I love it, you love it.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be in our five Dallas
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Cowboys six and a half over the Saints.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky in the heart
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: We loved it on Sunday at six. We both bet it.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: It's moved six and a half almost immediately. I've been
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: thinking a lot about this game, especially Dak. Dak is
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: a favorite of six or more, thirty one thirteen and
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: one against the spread eighteen and nine. Think about that,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: thirty one thirteen and one against the spread. That's seventy
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: one percent eighteen and nine since twenty twenty one. It's
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: his spot. And like Dennis Allen, he is, as we know, terrible.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: He's been an underdog of a field goal or more
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: thirty three times in his career, pulled the upset just
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: five times. That's like Scott Lenahan and Rod Marinelli. That's
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: who his company is. So book it give it to me,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: don't care Dallas six, six and a half in the contest.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: We want a favorite, this is one of them.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah right there with you, Chad. I love Dallas and
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: you know, some professionals coming on the Saints, and I
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: think the reasoning this sound of just you know, this
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: team got off to a hot start. Who's to say
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: they can't carry this over and they have a new
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: identity coming this season, right, Derek Carr, he's learned a
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: new offense. Maybe he's flourishing in this new offense. My
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: rebuttal is what I think me and you were both thinking, Chad,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: that was just Carolina, right. They just caught a really
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: bad team there in Week one that was on underprepared
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: and they showed out. I can't say the same for
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: this Dallas team. They're prepared and even reading through Evans article,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I mean McCarthy is incredible in Week two, like apparently
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: he's really good at getting his teams up for these
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: early games. So I like the matchup here, and I
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: do think Dallas didn't play that great of a game
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: against the Browns, right. I think there was a lot
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: they could work on this upcoming week for them to
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: grow and get better. And I can't say the same
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: for the Saints, Like you know, they're just gonna be
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: feeling themselves all week. They're just not a team used
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: to hanging fifty points, right, Chad. So this is such
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: a typical letdown spot especially we'll even talk about it.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: They got real serious flooding going right now. New Orleans.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Me and you always talk about this. It's hard to
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: think these players' minds won't be in other places, right,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: So that's another added thing to this. And then just
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: on the field stuff. I like the matchup right, there's
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: a bunch of stuff offensively this Dallas team could do
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: to attack the Saints defense, and then we flipped the
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: defensive side. The Saints offensive line is better than I
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: gave them credit for a head end of the season,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: like at a couple unknown guys. I still think on
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: the outside their tackle positions that I mean, the Cowboys
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: should be able to feast. So Derek Carr, we know
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: how he struggles when he's got guys around his feet.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: He does not like to have push on the outside.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Jeff, this is gonna be our one favorite.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get a second favorite in there. I definitely
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: want it to be Dallas this week. I just love
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Dallas in the spot. Historically we played dak As these
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: big favorites at home. It's been good to us.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: They are the Dallas Cowboys, a free wheeling All American
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: Star kiss team.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: We just talked about the Raiders and the Ravens. A
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: lot of trends to back there. It's moved down. It
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: was nine and a half on Monday. On Tuesday when
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: we did the show, like you said, it got up
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to ten. Now it's back down to eight and a half.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Money from the Wives guys clearly coming in on the Raiders.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: I don't want to play the Raiders. We're betting the number,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: not what we've seen on the team, and I have
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: no faith in this team right now, especially in a
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: bounced back spot for the Ravens who are going to
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: be at home, perfect spot for Lamar. Just feels like
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: we're walking into a trap there.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: And you're not wrong. I think the public has your sentiment, right.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: I think it's only about ten percent of the money
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: and I don't know, less than twenty percent of the
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: bets right now are on this Raiders team, and for
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: good reason, right the coach let them down. They punted
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: to they took a field goal at fourth and one,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: and they punted on fourth and one and the Chargers territory.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: I just think people are a little hesitant now with
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: this team. They're a little unsure. So that's fine, just
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: because I think this is going to be our survivor pick.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: So it's like, you know, I'm happy went onto them
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: my ten ticket, my nine and a half ticket. If
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: we don't, if this is one ugly dog we're not
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: forcing in, there's a couple other ugly dogs. You are
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: about the forced anyway, So I get your hesitation, But yeah,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: I do like the raid your side in this one.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we have so many ugly dogs that we are
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: going to ask people to bet. Just because we're not
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: asking people to bet the Panthers doesn't mean we're not
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: going to ask of people to do horrible, disgusting things.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: One of those horrible disgusting things. New York Jets currently
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites at the Tennessee Titans.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: We talked about the Jets the other day. This is
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: an incredible bounce back spot for Aaron Rodgers. There are
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of reasons to love Aaron Rodgers. Here. After
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: a straight up loss, he's sixty three percent against the spread.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: When it's like a bounce back game happens for Rogers.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: In week two or three, he's six one and one
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: against the spread. But non Rogers trends and this is
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: going to come up a couple of times with games
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: that we like the underdog. Forget about all the other
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: trends that I mentioned at the top, which the Titans fit.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Teams with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: a week are six in Week one are six and
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen percent.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: One of those teams, the New York Jets. The Titans
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: did not allow an offensive touchdown. The Jets defense was
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: on the field for a million plays getting schewed up
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: by the Niners, and has a short week. Teams that
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: open at plus four or higher at home weeks one
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: and two sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Teams that open plus four are higher at home after
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: losing game one against the spread sixty four percent since
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. I'm saying, do we bet the Titans here?
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: Now? I wouldn't put them as one of our five.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: I just I can't get there this Titans team. I
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: just have to make questions about the coaching and Will Levis.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: So everything you just said still true. If you want
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to fade Rogers, I don't hate it, which I just
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: pretty much broke it down for you. Why you should
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: right their defense? How can they recover in six days
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: on a road game when they just played that many
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: snaps on defense, and on the flip side, they have
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: a lot of stuff to work out offensively, right, they
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: don't really have an identity. But I still think we're
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: getting a good number here, just because the Jets just
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: played with maybe the best team in the NFC. Like,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: it's just I don't know. I'm still I'm still drinking
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: the Jets kool aid, and I'm still kind of off
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: this Tennessee team. So everything you said there, like everything.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: My body wants me to take Tennessee. But my numbers
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: say there should be minus four. It's now minus three
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: and a half. Technically, I like the Jets, but I'm
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: with you. I don't want to put this game, and
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: I just I don't only betting Rodgers in you know,
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: their offense, even watch going back watching be watching that
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: four nine Ers game. You know, I don't know if
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: a Rogers calling the offense or who's calling their offense,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: but the fact that they their mentality was we're gonna
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: spread out this forty Niners defense and we're gonna wear
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: them out, running the ball from left to right right.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: They try to get the ball on the outside, try
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: to get those you know, interior linemen tired, the linebackers tired,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: and every time it was like, Okay, now it's third
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: and eight. So it's like, you run it first down,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: you run it second down. Now it's third and eight,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: and it's I just didn't like how they didn't adjust
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: off that where it's just eventually they figured out, oh,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: we should just be having rodgers drop back and pass
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: the ball the whole time, Like there are holes in
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: this defense, none of which are running lanes. So I
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: totally with you on the hesitation of this Jets team
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: and the sharp side, the professional side probably is Tennessee
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: or but I still think it's a good number on
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: this Jets team.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: You're betting the Jets, I bet them.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: I took him my minus three and a half. Once
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: I got to three and a half, I was like,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: all right, I'll take this number here. But obviously after
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: reading Evans article, I didn't feel great about it. Right,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: all those trends point to take a Tennessee here. But yeah,
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: I'm I like the Jets at that number.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll find out later in the show
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: if it's one of your biggest bets. No for the
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: week you just mentioned San Francisco, San Francisco, this number
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: has moved, yeah, down from six to five and a half.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: I think we're both a little bit surprised by that
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: because we love the Niners in this spot. I know
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: there are going to be trends now that it's in
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: that five and a half range that compel you to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: bet Minnesota. The professional betters have moved this down. You know,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I want to get your opinion, but I do think
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: there's some data to beck betting Shanahan specifically in this
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: spot that for me, overrides some of the other stuff
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: that is just more broad about underdogs in this spot.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: But give me your thoughts.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Historically Shannon does well against teams you lost to
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: in the previous meeting, and this would classify as one
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: of those spots. Right, So, I don't feel remember the
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: last time they played, it was one of the most
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: bizarre games ever, right, I think Perdy got can cussed.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: It was just a lot going on in that game.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: We're here. I mean, this forty nine Ers team just
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: feels like they're humming. And even that Jets game, we
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: even going back watching it, they didn't play that clean,
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: like they actually weren't that good as people think they were.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: That's how dominant this team is. I mean they go
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: how many field goal as they kicked? Right, normally those
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: are sevens not threes like That's that was probably the
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: most shocking part to me. And it was just not
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: in rhythm right. Ayuk had a couple of really bad
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: drops and just different things like that where the Foreign
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: Iris team feels like we didn't really see their best shot.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Just that's how dominant this team is. And we didn't
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: even talk about their new DC. I thought he did
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: really well in his first game against the Jets, and
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: it's like even here, I like a lot of the
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: matchups that they have on the Foreign Iris team against
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: this Vikings team. So I can tell you, Chad though,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: from the professional side, they do think that this is
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: a big deal, right that it's a short week, they're
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: traveling to Minnesota against a team that the public does
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: undervalue that profestionals coming to the season did value, right.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: They liked this Viking seam coming to the season. So
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: it's definitely a team that I think me and you
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: both are down on. I still am down on, and
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: I think that people overreacting to what happened last week
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: against the Giants. Right when you really break it down,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: we saw one good half from Sam Donald and they
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: put up what twenty one points against the Giants defense,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: which we all think is not gonna be that good
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: of a defense. So it's just like, okay, I'm not
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: going to react to that. I still think the forty
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: nine ers, even without McCaffrey, we still have them putting
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: up thirty one to twenty eight points here, and I
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: don't really see how, you know, Sam Donald in this
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: defense puts up more than twenty five twenty six points.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: Like for them to get three touchdowns or two touchdowns
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: in a field goal, that would be a really good
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: day for this Vikings offense against this Foreign Aris defense.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: So I think we're getting really good value. Chef. I
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: make this number seven, the fact that it's down to
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: five and a half, crossing that key number of six.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: We love the Niners almost all the time. We love Shanahan.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: A couple of things to think about with up.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: To them, because like even this, if they blow them out,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: you know the number is going to keep getting exponentially
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: crazier as the week's going.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's like same as Patrick Mahomes right,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: like Mahomes as a big favorite doesn't have a great
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: record against the spread, but that's because the number is
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: always so big, because Patrick Mahomes is so special. So
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: to me, Shanahan, we've talked about this a lot, one
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: of the most special coaches in the NFL.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: Because it does make me a little weirried. Where like
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: this is definitely like the Giants last week, where we're
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: on heavily on the public side, where the public a
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: going against the pros here.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Don't care, don't care. You know what, It's time for
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: time for our big balls. Better the Week presented by
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: Tommy John. I was a little muted on that one
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: because I'm in the hotel. I don't want to freak
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: people out. We are going with the Green Bay Packers. Wow,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: green Bay Packers. I think this is what Matt Mitchell
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: called when we started talking bet it on Tuesday podcast malpractice.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: But look and like the numbers down to two and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: a half, so we obviously don't have the best of
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: the number. It's at bet three six five to two
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: and a half. There are all the other places that
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: it's at.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: Three, So there's a couple three is left right now.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: It was at three and a half when we talked
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday. The wise guys have come after it.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: They betted the three, they bet at the two and
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: a half. I think a lot of people are thinking
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: a couple of things, and we'll get to some of
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: the trends, but overall, too much of a swing in
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the point spread from Jordan Love to Malik Willis and
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: so there's some buyback from the wise guy point of view.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: But what's your take here?
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Honestly, it feels like it was the right amount. I
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: see it's come down a little bit here because of
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: the spot. We're excited about the Colts and what they
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: can be and the you know what they're going to
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: be this upcoming season. But Green Bay, you know, they're
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: reviewed as one of the better teams in all football,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: and you know, just because they lost Jordan Love, we
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: expect will Floor to kind of figure this out on
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: the fly, right. I mean, their run blocking was incredible
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: against the Eagles. I think that will be able to
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: translate against this Colts team that just gave up, you know,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: over one hundred and fifty yards to Houston running right.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: So there's a couple of things alike here. But I
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: think you're right right, the pros they've kind of dug
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: in here because of Lafour leaving the door open for
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: love maybe played in this game, right, That to me
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: is what the movement is. So me and Chad are
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: taking this on the show at two and a half.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: You can grab it if you want, right because there
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: are like we just said, we're sponsor here, so we're
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: giving out that two and a half. There's threes out there.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: I'd grab that just just in case on Sunday. If
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: it's guaranteed that loves out it is, Malik. I think
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: you agree, right Chad. The public money will come in
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: very heavy on this Colds team, so we could get
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: back that three and a half. The movement here, though,
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: is is warranted. It's like that was way too much,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: like Chad just said, And you know, Green Bay they're
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: gonna be just as desperate as this Colts team, right,
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Like no one wants to start owing too. That's why
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: I love these kind of spots. But they're gonna be
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: desperate at home with a Nobody leaves this mentality and
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: you know, open up the action app here. Let's I mean,
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: I can't even imagine this number is going to be. Yeah,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: right now, it's only nineteen percent of the money and
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: about twenty five percent of the bets right now is
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: on this Green Bay team. And it's gone from Chad
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: just said, from three and a half down to two
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: and a half. So it's at two at a book
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing here. But that's that's pretty crazy that much
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: professional money's coming here. So we know we're not getting
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: the best number giving out two and a half, but
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time. Two and a half has
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: become such a key number. I feel comfortable taking this
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: making it our big Balls better of the week.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Look, we had two and a half. We had two
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: and a half with the Colts last week. Yeah, that
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: was fun and it worked out just swell, it didn't.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: It wasn't a sweat in any way at all. It
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: is our big Balls bet of the Week, presented by
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Tommy John. Like you know, Simon, there's no bigger fan
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: of Tommy John. And when I am sweating through a
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: hurricane while trying to figure out what games we want
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: to bet in this upcoming week so we can try
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: to get back to dominance in our Favorites contest, there's
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: no better pair of underwear to wear than the most
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It's the second skin that
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: I've always needed. So I can be happy whether I'm podcasting,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: whether I'm in terrible meetings talking about something I don't
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: want to talk about. Whatever the case, I'm going to
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: be comfortable because I'm wearing my Tommy John's. If you
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: love Simon or I, if you love this show, you'll
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• 28:41
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• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Couple things I will say for this game, just to
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: sort of give people a little bit more confidence. We've
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: seen Action Network coming into the app taken the Packers.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: That's not just me and Simon and talking crazy backups
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: in their first start as an underdog past three seasons
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent against the spread. The Colts have a
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: secondary that is banged up. Couldn't get off the field
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: last week. Brentston Buckner did not practice yesterday Wednesday, really
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: important practice day. Matt Lafleur, one of the second best
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: coach against the spread the past five years. Like the Colts,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I mean like the Jets. There's another one. The Colts
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: only had twenty five minutes of possession last week, does
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: not bode well for them against the spread. So we're
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: on the Packers another game though that I think you
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: and I might disagree on Cleveland at Jacksonville. That number
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: has stayed at three and a half. I think the
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: wise guys are coming in on Cleveland. You still want
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: to fade Cleveland or at least pass on this game.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Like I think Jacksonville's defense is in trouble. I think
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: they also have secondary issues. I think Cleveland's defense has
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: something to prove against a Jacksonville team that I don't
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: think is as good as the Cowboys. Jacksonville blew a
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: big lead, so it's a little bit of a reason
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: to like Jacksonville. What's your thought here?
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's down to three to couple books if
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: you do want to take the Jacksonville just minus three.
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: But Chad's right, like the pros liked Cleveland here for
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: a bunch of reasons. Obviously, there's a lot of trends
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: that point to taking Cleveland here and fading this Jacksonville team.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: But I'm just looking at on field football stuff and
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: when I break down the film, there were so many
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: great throws there for Trevor Lawrence, Like he had guys
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: in good positions and they were open. And I know
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: for a fact Doug Peterson's going back and watch it
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: tape and he's gonna see all that. And you know,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time Cleveland on the road that
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: team did not travel last year. We said those trends
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: don't carry over from here year, right, And we already
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: saw that Week one, right, they were not that same
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: defense Week one at home against that Cowboys team as
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: they were last year. I think that, you know, we've
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: seen it historically. Jim Schwartz has these years where he
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: has an incredible dominant defense and then they fall off
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: a cliff the following year, right when teams kind of
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: figure out how to go against his his scheme. And
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: right now he's oh for one, And like that really
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: stands out to me where it's like, I get what
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: the pros are seeing here, But I think this Jacks
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: team is not as bad as people say, Like even
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Chattier saying their defense didn't play that well. I mean
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: it was seventeen to seven midway through the third quarter
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: against a high powered Miami defense at home, and again
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: that could be Miami not being in rhythm, and it
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: took them a while to get into rhythm, and eventually
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: they did get up to twenty points. Right, So that's
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: maybe I am overrating the Shaguars deep. It's a little bit.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: But I love their front four, like I really do,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: especially their pass rushing and like they're down to I
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: think their fourth string tackle at this point. This Cleveland
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: team with a guy in Watson. When I watch the tape,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: he has happy feet. He thinks guys were he thought
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: guys were around him when they weren't even around him. Right,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: He's getting rid of the ball super fast because he
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: thought he was getting pressure and they were actually holding
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: up pretty well in the pass block. And it's just
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: everything feels broken with the Browns. Even this week. They're
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: not even talking about football, right, They're talking about all
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: field stuff to these coaches and these other players, about
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: Watson dealing with his b So it just feels like
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: it's all bad for Cleveland and the pros here. I
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: don't know why they're coming in on this one. I
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: feel like there's other games they would like better and
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: step in this one. So yeah, me and you definitely disagree.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Chad likes Cleveland three and a half. I'm taking the
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Jaguars at minus three. I just I feel safer and
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: happier taking that number where it's just like I could
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: see one team getting rolled here and it's not the Jaguars.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: I could see Cleveland getting rolled in this matchup.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I don't like when we disagree because it leads to
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: confusion and dismay makes it harder for us to find
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: the games that we want to put into the contact.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Like when it comes down to it, would we feel
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: better taking Cleveland at three and a half in the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: contest or green Bay at two and a half?
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Those are those could be all right, okay, because that's
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: what that's what it'll end up being. Cincinnati, a Kansas city.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: It's down to five and a half. Simon says, he said,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: get it at six. We got a couple of competing
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: trends here. Patrick Mahomes is forty eight percent against the spread,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: is more than a field go favorite Casey moved from
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: three and a half to six. It's a huge number.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Mahomes is ten and thirteen and two against the spread.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: When the line moves two plus points towards his team.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: But like you said, I think before we came on
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: the show, Joe Burrow right now two and seven against
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the spread in his first two games each season hasn't
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: won in Week two. We really have to be at
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: betting over reaction because the Bengals were so bad and
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs were so good. And by the way, this
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: is one of our three lunk raking games. It's going
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: to be in the contest. We better at six. We're
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: gonna take the Bengals. No reason to talk about it.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: No, we hate this spot too. We get the people's pushback,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: but we already talked about it. Right. The number eight
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: just moved too much. And you know, if this is
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: four and a half in our contest, maybe we don't
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: play it. But if it's five and a half, or
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: maybe it goes up to six game, we can get
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: that six and a half. I'd feel so comfortable taking
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: it at that number. So you basically nailed it. The
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: biggest thing, too, is I mean, how many times you've
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: seen the video of Joe Burrow flex and his wrist,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Like I've already seen it feels like ten times since
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: that game on Sunday, So the public is all in
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: on fading this team right now, this Bengals team, they
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: are probably the bottom of the barrel. I'll open the
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: action app right now and check what the money is.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so it's less than three percent of the
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: money right now is on the Bengals. Less than twenty
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: percent of the ticket is on the Bengals, So they're
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: they've totally fallen off a cliff, right. I think people
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: just got burned like we did in our survival pool
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: by them last week. It's easy to hate them and
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: doubt them. And you know, I understand the worry here,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: right because, like we said, the line moved three points
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: based off really nothing, and people's pushback is, well, it's
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: moved that much because this Bengals team might be terrible, right.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Their defense is a lot of new faces. They might
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: just be bad compared to the years they were in
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: the past. And if Joe Burrow isn't one hundred percent,
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: you know, no T Higgins, you know, Chase doesn't have
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: the right mindset this This is a I get all
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: the reasons why people are fading this team and taking
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: them homes here, But like me and Chatta Slay say
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: all the time, like we're just playing the numbers here
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: and trying to not the outside noise really affect this year.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: So yeah, four and a half. I don't see us
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: putting this one in At five and a half. I
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: could see us having this this game in our five.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: I don't see it getting to four and a half
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: in the contest, so I think it will definitely be
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: one of our fives. There's there's one game I want
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: to just touch on quickly because it's moved so much,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: and that is Tampa Bay at Detroit. We really liked Detroit.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: We thought that there was a little bit too much
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: of an overreaction to what Tampa Bay had done in
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Week one. But Detroit is a dominant team and I
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: love how this game matches up. It is moved to
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't know if we're going
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: to put Detroit in our contest.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: We should have made what's that so we should make
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: We should have made this our fox hole?
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Well we can we can? Can we can we go back?
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Okay, Matt?
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Can we can we change it up? Guys? Did we
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: already brand it? Can we rebrand it? Someone just tell
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: me in the chat. But that's fine. Approved, approved, Approved,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: all right, We're going back to Detroit. Detroit is going
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: to be we we love Detroit, and we just feel
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: like people are still sleeping on this team. And it
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: is a dominant team in the trenches. Dominant team in
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: the trenches. I don't know how we don't take this.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: I make this number of minus eight, So again, not
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: crazy value here, but it's more I think even my
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: model is underrating this Detroit team vice versa. This Bucks
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: team has so many injuries on the defensive side. I
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: just don't see how they get any type of stops.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: If they want to run the ball Detroit, I think
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: they gotta run it. If they want to pass the ball,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: I think they'll go to pass it with ease. Like,
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: I just don't know how they get the three and
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: outs the Detroit team on the flip side of this
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Bucks team, man, Like, if you want to put it
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: all on Baker's shoulder and let them pass it thirty
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: forty times, now fields your recipe for disaster. And though
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: it worked out against the Commander's team, this is night
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: and day. These are two totally different teams. So man,
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: this is very chalky of us back to back weeks,
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: especially last week, Right, people think me and Cheat got
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: a little lucky with that Detroit number, even though they
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: were up seventeen to three for about all the games.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: But it yeah, like I thought, you know, they had
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: some rhythm issues last week. I can't see it to
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: haveing the same right. Just even even talking about the
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: advantages that this Detroit team has offensively, I don't know
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: any linebackers that can stop Blaporter were last week the
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Rams had a couple of guys that could move around
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: that could give him some problems, and same go for
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: this Bucks team. It's like, I get why the public
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: is kind of in on them, right because they were
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: so good against the Commanders team. But this is totally
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: different scenario. And even when I was looking at last
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: year's I went back and we watched their playoff game.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: They are a different team, this Detroit team, compared to
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: what they were last year. They're just that much better
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: to me, so Chad, so I feel much more confident
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: taking this one. I don't mind making this our foxhole
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: bet at all.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Simon, We're in the foxhole.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: Let's go, let's climb down into the foxhole.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Detroit is now our foxhole. I can't remember the last
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: time we made a more then touchdown favorite one of
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: our Like Simon says, big bets exec decision foxhole ever,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: but I agree. I feel like Detroit might end up
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: being in our final five. Pittsburgh at Denver. This was
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: my exec decision because now it's a two and a half,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: you got to get the best of the number it
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: was at three. Doesn't bother me. This is more about
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: the believing that the Broncos will win outright, you know,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: money line parlay boost hint by the way, great spot
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: for them, yeah, at home against a bad quarterback. Terrible
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: spot for Mike Tomlin as good as he is as
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: a dog on the road, just as bad as a
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: favorite on the road thirty two and forty against the
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: spread as a road favorite when he opens as a
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: spread of three or higher in his career thirty eight
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread. Also, the Broncos are another their
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: luck looking game. I'm not uncomfortable betting them at two
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: and a half. Like I'm not. I don't care, Like
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter to me.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And it feels like for Denver this is an
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: easy game to turn this Pittsburgh team into a one
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: dimensional team, right, They're gonna force fields to throw the ball.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: I already know how they're gonna do it too, So
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I love that matchup for them, even though we're not
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: hearing much about it from people I here that do
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: work for Pittsburgh. There's a lot of drama behind closed doors, right.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: I think Tomlin went to bat for Russell Wilson and
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: kind of gave him his word that he would be
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: the guy if he was healthy. He's not, right, they
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: have to ride justin fields because he did win that
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: game last week. So talk about a team that's going
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: to be filling it and the other side a team
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: that lost last week in Denver. It's all good, right.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: They feel like that young, happy, fun team. And yes,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: even hearing bon Neecks talk about he knows like I
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: wouldn't watch the tape, he knows the same thing I'm watching,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: which is he had open guys. If he doesn't get
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: such happy feet and pull it down and trust his
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: offensive line, it's bow tie boom like a powder keg
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: in your mouth, sucking style. He did have opportunities to
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: pass the ball against what we view as gonna be
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: one of the better defenses, right. I think Seattle as
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: much croof we want to get them. They're not that
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: terrible defensively, So I'm excited for this Denver team. The
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: only only knack is me and Chad would have loved,
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: loved having this three and a half in the contest.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: We're not gonna let the two and a half scaret
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: us off just like Green Bay. Like I like both
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: these ugly dogs here, I'm still gonna take Denver the
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: The public perception though, that you know, this Pittsburgh team,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to travel with this defense, I
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: get it, like that doesn't make sense, but I just
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: think Denver Champagne, they're gonna have something to wear this
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: defense down, especially come second half. So even if we
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: get out to a slow start chat with this Denver team,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be worried, right, We're we're gonna trust
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: the Mile High to eventually eat away at this Pittsburgh defense.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: And I know that they're just gonna spread them out, right,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: like I already talking about, Uh, you know JJ Watt or
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: t J Watta should say, they're they're gonna just kind
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: of use him as a dummy, right, They're not gonna
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: let him dictate this game, which Atlanta they could not do. Right,
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: they don't have a mobile quarter back. So I'm excited
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: to see what scho pain is gonna do to counteract
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh defense. And we're getting Justin Fields is a
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: favorite here. People don't overthink it. Take take the dog,
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: take the two and a half.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: Something everybody knows. You can't say TJ Wat's name out loud.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: He's like, it's like saying Marvin Harrison out loud. I
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: can't say it right now. We got six games in
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: our final five, and I was consumed we weren't going
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: to get to any So I feel pretty good. One game.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: I do want to mention and I still want to
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: get to I want to bring in Evan for some
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: you know, self fulfilling prophecies here Atlanta at Philly, like
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: it is the spot you play Atlanta. I know we
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: don't want to. It is a luck rankings game, the
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: third of the week. There's only three sides that are
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: luck rankings. I know you like the I know you
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: like the Eagles. The line is ticked up in their direction,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: gives you more of a spot to play the Falcons.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly that we have to put it in,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: but it is a spot you play the Falcons.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, same thing though, Like I took the sixth. Uh,
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: you know, plenty of professionals are gonna they're gonna come in.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: They'll take the six up in Atlanta for good reason though,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Like Chad just said, it's like this number is too
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: big for an unproven Eagles defense that's full of young
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: guys that they couldn't stop anything Gribay was throwing at them, right,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Like Green Bay had guys flying open, and you expect
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: to have a new defense with a bunch of young guys, right,
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: There's gonna be a lot of growing pains here. So
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: I get your standpoint. I don't even think this is
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: like in my top ten of bets I'm even making
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: this week. I just I'm with Chad, like I wanted
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: to be on Atlanta. I just had no read on
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins. Even going back and watching that game again,
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: It's like I didn't even know who that was. That
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: was not Kirk Cousins. We all know, like it's just
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: it's a big deal whatever's going on with his achilles,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: and we don't really know anything about it. Right. That's
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: the tough part here, is I am in the dark,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: and when I do talk to people on the team.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: They don't really know much either, because they're just not
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: really pressing it right. They're they're like, Okay, well we
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: know he's not the same old Kirk. They can roll
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: out the pocket. He's kind of just stuck in the pocket.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: But who the Eagles have pressure him, right, that's the
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: question here. It's like, I don't know if he gos
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: hav anyone the out outside that could get type of
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: pressures and give Kirk a problems. So I get your
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: coming from a really quick game. We didn't touch on
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: and I didn't mention the sharp calls.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: The professionals like the Giants, the public likes Washington. I
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: didn't think I'd even be able to get chat even,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: you know, even think about putting the Giants in for
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: a good reason. But I thought he made a red
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: Evans Evans article about how Dabo just owns this Washington
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: team in his whole career. Like Daniel Jones is terrible
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: against everyone else too, he's great against Washington historically. So
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: if you want to take a team in that spot,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: I am going to end up on the Giants. And
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: if you hate the number, that's another team. I'd just
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: tease up with the Rams, right, just put them into
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: get them up to eight points. I can't see them
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: getting blown out by this Washington team. They just even
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: going back and watching Washington's offense, it's so erratic where
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: it's like they it's still a first read pulled down
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: for Jaden Daniels, right, That's that's kind of how it
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: is for these rookie quarterbacks coming into this league. So
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: this this is as bilow as you can get on
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: this Giants team. I talked to two different book makers.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: They have no Giants money. It's just all Washington money.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: So I do like the Giants in this spot.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Giants one and a half point, dogs on the road
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: at the Commanders. I just didn't bring it up because
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to discuss people like we're already talking about,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: you know, betting Denver at two and a half.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: Carolina, they got it over. If you're gonna listen to
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: their show, we're gonna have we're getting users every week.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: But we're talking about betting. Malik Willis, Like we're already
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: asking of people, you know, extraordinary things. But look, I
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: think right now, like we're talking about Dallas, San Francisco,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, Cincy, Detroit, Denver, New York Giants. That's seven games.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: We could potentially choose our five from. So right now,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: Simon and you and I will might put in the
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: picks into favorites dot actionnetwork dot com today just to
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: lock in some lines. I would say Dallas, San Francisco,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Green Bay you can see, and Denver, but that leaves
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit on the outside. Would we do Detroit or San Francisco.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: We'll see because I'm looking at it right now that
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: the forty just putting down to five. So if that's
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: four and a half in contest, I mean, forget it right,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be. That's gonna be We'll be the suckers
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: with the Joe. Public will buy on that one. So yeah, yeah,
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: that's a fair to have them both as coin flips.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: But I definitely think it's the number that matters with
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: that one.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: All right, So we definitely think it's gonna be Dallas,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, Sincy, and Denver, and then it'll come down
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: to San Francisco and Detroit. Yeah, okay, got it? All right?
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: We got to boosted underdog money line parlay because our
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: sponsors BET three six, five are giving our money line
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: underdog parlay and odds boost this season. We asked, they said, yes,
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• 47:08
  Speaker 1: on their site all weekend long with boosted odds. We
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: loved how many people bet it. Last week. We were
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: very sorry we couldn't give out the winner with Carolina
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: and Indianapolis. But look, keep betting it right because the
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  Speaker 1: more listeners who bet these boosts, the more picks we
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• 47:27
  Speaker 3: Mot Dog blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog blucks mot Dog.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: This week will be Denver. I can't believe I'm saying
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: this podcast Malpractice and green Bay. Denver and green Bay,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: but we should do is going to be our boosted parlay.
• 47:44
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• 47:50
  Speaker 1: a win if they take a seventeen point lead, even
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: if they blow the game like the Titans did last week.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: If you want to bet this better at bet three
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: six five, we should still do them any line underdog
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: round robin like the five teams, because people really like that.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Last week. I mean We're definitely put it in Green
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Bay and Denver. You know.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm making the people put in Carolina. Even
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: though I think it's it's dip below two hundred. We
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: gave it out at plus two fifty on Tuesday. I
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: think it's down a plus two hundred now, but still
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: love the Panthers in that spot.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: Giants.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Let's see if they qualify. Yeah, there's still plus one
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: oh five plus one ten, so we can definitely put
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: them in. Since he now, let me get New England.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: And I know we haven't talked about it much, but
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: like I gotta get New England in that spot. They
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: just feel like that Wonkee team that's going to start
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: two and oh they'll lose every game the rest of
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: the year.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Right New England, it's.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: Seattle on the road with a bad offensive line. It's
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: it's kind of hard not to take this number.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Well, I bet Seattle, So now I feel sick about.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: It cold at minus two and a half. I'm trying
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: to thread a needle here with Green Bay, you know.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: So it's like it's making early bets on Sunday night.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Brother, I know I stuck. You likes to say it's
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: like catching the Falling Knife Survivor pick. Last week we did.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: We had the Bengals, but we also had Seattle. We
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: split it in the Survivor pick pools that we're in,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: so now we're out with one. But we lucked out
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: with Seattle. This week. It feels like Baltimore, right.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll do the same thing we're doing too.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: I would take Baltimore. I know people are like, well,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: I want to save them for later in the year.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: You can roll the dice and be a better man
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: than me and take the Chargers because this this, this
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: is a good number for them. But it's like Chad knows,
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: I don't like taking road favorites on the road earlier
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: in the year like this, Like I like taking the
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: home the Home Chalk, So yeah, I like I like
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: the the Raiders. And if there's another team that really
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: pops out, you know, it would have been the Eagles,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: but it's like like the Great Washington or Giants.
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: So we.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Like the Ravens. You said Raiders, and then like people
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: were not the Raiders in our Survivors.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: Who'd put him for a number two? Would you? Who
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: would you go with there? I mean Houston, I.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Was I was thinking the chargers.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they definitely jump out where It's like, I don't
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: know what else we would use them. But yeah, that's god,
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: that's gross.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: I know. That's why I don't want to talk about it.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: I'll put the chargers of my notebook.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Then, yeah, I simon give me your biggest bets right now.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: I mean think people already know love Denver, Uh love Sincey,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: especially if you get since he still five and a half.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: Obviously I would preferred you get the six, but the
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: Pros just came in and crush that one. You know, Detroit.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: I have a large position on it. Seven seven and
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: a half. Wow, I think I think comes Sunday. I've
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: been I've been waiting for the Pros to coming on
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: the Saints. I'm hoping the Cowboys dip down to five
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: and a half because that would be probably my biggest
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: bet of the weekend. But right now I have a
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: decent amount of six. I'm just really waiting hopefully getting
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: the five and a half.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: Dude, I got to get out of Mississippi so I
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: can get back to a legal state and fire away
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: on the tricks. I haven't really made any bets on
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: them yet, and now I feel like I've missed it.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Scoot Roulett. Last week you had Philadelphia minus two and
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: a half. Nice job, Simon, really good pick. Chad had
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Tennessee plus four, and I think for you know, thirty
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: five minutes it looked like an amazing pick. Who is
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: your scout Rouette this week?
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Last week was so chalky? I don't want to go.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: You know what, I will go chalk again? Can I
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: Can I get Jaguars minus three? Or is that not allowed?
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Of course?
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: All right now?
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Fuck?
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: Uh no, no, I'm no what I'm not ever thinking.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: I'm going Cowboys minus six?
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Can me carey? I'm it. I was about to take
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys because you took the Jags. But you know what,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: it's your right as the winner. It's your right. Yeah,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: I guess I have to go with Denver.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: That's good.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right. We got to get to our friend
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams before we get out of here, director or research.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: He's gonna give us the final word and just make
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: us feel better about all the bad things we've done.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: So Simon almost just took the Jaguars as his favorite
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: player of the week. So we might as well start
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: there and how bad Trevor Lawrence has been lately because
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: that was always where we were going to start, so
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: perfect timing. Lawrence has actually lost his last six consecutive
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: starts straight up dating back to November of last season,
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: including three straight starts straight up as a favorite. The
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: issue for him has been second halfs. He's one in
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: six second half ats in his last seven, so that
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: has been where the game has fallen, apart like last
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: week against Miami. But the stat Lawrence is eight and
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: nine straight up as a favorite. He is one of
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: eight quarterbacks under five hundred straight up as a favorite
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: last twenty years, with the minimum of ten games started
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: as a favorite in that role. Now Here are the
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: most starts of those eight quarterbacks. Number one is Kerry
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: Collins thirty seven starts. He's eighteen and nineteen. Number two
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: is Kyler Murray twenty four starts. He's eleven to thirteen.
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: He's a favorite this week. Kyler is one in six
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: straight up in his last seven is a favorite, and
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: number three is Trevor Lawrence. So two of those quarterbacks
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: currently favorite on the board this week, so a little
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: bit of caution there. Second one we've got. This is
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: just a short, short note back to back road games
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: to open the air. So Steelers is the one I'm
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: using in this example because everyone seems to like the Broncos.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: But Steelers were in Atlanta last week, now in Denver
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: for week two. Teams to go road road weeks one
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: and two just thirty eight percent straight up since nineteen ninety.
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: That is Pittsburgh, Vegas, the Rams, and the Jets this week.
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: So just a little bit of a tough road trip
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: to open the air for some teams. Now, you guys
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: talked about Cincinnati and Mahomes and the whole Bengals chief situation.
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: So let me give you two notes here. So last
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: week Burrow, obviously we've seen the video million times, hap
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: it didn't look fantastic. One hundred and sixty four passing
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: yards and looking into the passing yards, one hundred and
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: sixty two air yards on all of his passes, seventh
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: fewest of any quarterback in Week one. The issue wasn't
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: the pressure. He was only pressured three times, which was
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: the second fewest of any quarterback. Now, if you look
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: how Burrow bounces back, so he had under two hundred
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: passing yards his team's actually averaged twenty nine points per
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: game after he throws for under two hundred passing yards
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: in his previous game. So if Burrow is right, should
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: be a great spot. Now you look at the actual
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: number itself, Simon said about five and a half. So
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: if he's an underdog of above four points, he's ten
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: and two ats in his career. When he's that big
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: of a dog with Jamar Chase, he's five and oh
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: against the spread, never lost. Now, if Burrow isn't right
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: and that risk is an issue, you kind of have
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: to turn the tide a little bit and you have
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: to assume, Okay, Mahomes is about to face a team
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: and a quarterback who isn't right in their own way.
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: Mahomes is sixteen and oh straight up at home after
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: facing a team who had fewer than two hundred passing
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: yards in a previous game. He's just not the guy
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: you want to get right against. So depending on how
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: you feel about Burrow, should be the way you bet
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: the game. Now, finally, I've got to talk about Carolina
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: because every podcast and every time we're on the favorites,
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: I'm going to give you a Carolina trend until they cover,
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: It's just how we're going to do this. They've been
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: a dog in twenty one straight games. They failed to
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: cover their not last nine games as a favorite. They
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: haven't covered in one as a favorite in three full years.
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: Every other team in the NFL has three covers in
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: that span. They've actually held a lead of ten points
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: or more three times and lost outright in all three
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: of those games.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: Now to tell you why.
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: You should be betting them this week, this is just ridiculous.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: They had the worst loss in Week one.
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: They lost by thirty seven points in the last twenty years,
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: teams to lose by thirty five plus and their dogs
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: are four or more fifty eighteen and two seventy four
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: percent against this bread. I don't know what to tell
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: you but to take points of Carolina. But I will
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: see you here next week when they are zero and two.
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: I can't wait.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Listen, Simon, we're gonna have to find a way to
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: sneak the Panthers into our five. Even if we're not
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: going to talk about it. People will just see it
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: pop up in the Action Network app if they the
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Phase five, and they'll just see, oh my god, they
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: bet Carolina. They just didn't talk about it because we
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: didn't want to turn people off even more, all right, Evan,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: thank you very much. As a reminder of the Favorites
• 56:11
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  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network You two
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: page Sunday night, seven thirty pm. Eastern recapping our final
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: picks from the contest. In NFL Week two will preview
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: the blindes that we like the most in week three.
• 57:08
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