Latest / The Fourcast / China US Trade 'breakthrough': Who blinked first?

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China US Trade 'breakthrough': Who blinked first? · The Fourcast

0:00
This trade war was the wrong trade war for the United States
0:03
to start a fight to start with. My concern is that the greatest
0:07
predictability in the world of today is the unpredictability of
0:11
the United States, and the greatest certainty in the world
0:14
of today is the uncertainty of the United States and
0:18
unfortunately, President Trump. Hello and welcome to the
0:26
forecast. After months of a vicious cycle
0:29
of mutual retaliation, as Xi Jinping has put it, Donald Trump
0:33
and the Chinese leaders seem to have come to a truce in their
0:36
first meeting in nearly six years.
0:38
Speaking in South Korea, XI agreed to stop withholding
0:41
China's rare earth exports for a year and start buying soybeans
0:44
from America again, while Donald Trump said that he would reduce
0:48
tariffs and suspend port fees on Chinese ships.
0:51
But how long will this amicable relationship last?
0:55
Will all of this signal a closer tie between the world's two
0:59
biggest economies? Well, to discuss this, I'm
1:01
joined now by Victor GAO, vice president of the Centre for
1:04
China and Globalization in Beijing, and Doctor Yujia,
1:08
senior research fellow on China at Chatham House.
1:10
Welcome to you both. Let me start with you, Yujia.
1:14
Is the trade war over? Has it been suspended?
1:18
And who's won, if anyone? Well, the truth is it's not over
1:23
yet. What we have right now is a
1:25
temporary ceasefire between the world two largest economies.
1:28
Really, if you're judging from the details the two side has
1:32
been offered for now, I think we'll come to the stage that
1:35
both end and realize how difficult it is and how
1:38
dependent each other is towards the economy and has there's a
1:43
necessary ceasefire for the moment.
1:45
However, I think really judging from the words of very cautious
1:49
words from the Chinese state media here is to say the
1:53
protracted competition with United States difficult
1:56
relationship between Beijing and Washington is really here to
1:58
stay. So I think what we have today is
2:01
both the leader realise politically it's important to
2:04
have this temporary ceasefire. Victor Donald Trump after the
2:09
meeting said on Air Force One that the meeting had been
2:11
amazing. Was it amazing for Xi Jinping?
2:17
No, definitely not. This trade war was the wrong
2:20
trade war for the United States to start the fight to start
2:24
with. China is on the receiving side,
2:26
and whatever China's doing is in retaliation against the wrongful
2:30
acts by the United States. And now the United States have
2:35
felt the heat from the Chinese side has blinked again and
2:39
again. I think the United States
2:41
realized that it is futile for the United States trying to
2:46
achieve a chokehold against China because China has enough
2:49
wherewithal to fight back. This is the reason why the two
2:53
sides have decided to back off from each other, at least
2:56
temporarily. And I think going forward, the
2:59
litmus test is whether the United States really orders
3:02
whatever it has agreed in its summit meeting in the Republic
3:06
of Korea. And that will decide whether
3:09
China will again retaliate, retaliate against whatever the
3:14
United States may want to change from what they agreed in South
3:18
Korea. But as Julia said, they need
3:21
each other and hasn't, you know, really the saga, the up and down
3:25
the trade war of the last nine months since Trump took office
3:28
again shown us, Victor, that actually they do rely on each
3:31
other. China needs America's markets.
3:33
America needs China's rare earth metals.
3:35
Just, you know, to mention two items.
3:39
Absolutely. China and the United States can
3:41
do each other better if they really respect each other and
3:45
deal with each other as equal. If the United States wants to
3:49
bully China and try to suffocate China, first of all, it will not
3:52
succeed. Secondly, it will really suffer
3:55
the retaliation from China. China has never initiated this
4:00
round of trade war or tariff war.
4:02
It is always the United States which wants to fight against
4:05
China, and I hope by now Washington has fully realized it
4:10
is futile for the United States trying to suppress China by such
4:15
wrongful acts of tariff war. And China has demonstrated its
4:19
consistency in terms of its position and policy of fighting
4:24
back whenever the United States wants to bully China.
4:27
And China demands to be treated as a complete equal partner with
4:31
the United States, rather than anything less than an equal
4:34
partner. Yujia, do you think that China
4:38
holds stronger hands in this tussle or America?
4:42
Or are they literally both equal, although they want
4:45
different things obviously? Well, I think they're actually
4:48
mostly equal and obviously they want different things.
4:51
And 1st of most for China, I think what they really want is
4:54
to increasing its economic strength and also try to enhance
4:58
in this capability on high end technology.
5:01
That is to say, it can't withstand geopolitical pressure
5:04
from the United States and also from the connected W.
5:07
Now secondly, I think in here as I said earlier, politically both
5:12
leader won't have some kind of temporary truth and for Donald
5:15
Trump and he's able to justify to his domestic audience that he
5:19
has managed his relationship with China, managed tariff
5:23
issue. Whereas I think ready for
5:25
Beijing, it's really a matter of taking this as a stalling
5:28
approach, of taking a longer time to buy his time and try to
5:33
strengthen his own domestic economic resilience.
5:35
So I think both want this ceasefire, but for very
5:39
different reasons in here. Do you think the whole trade war
5:42
the last 9-10 months was completely pointless Juja?
5:47
Well, no, it's, I think surely it is really a sense of testing
5:52
who has the strengths and who blink 1st.
5:55
And obviously Beijing has really taken a playbook provided by
5:59
United States, that is to say using the maximum pressure to
6:03
your opposition to achieve what I want.
6:06
And I think that's the playbook Beijing has learned.
6:08
So it put in a way that I think United States has inadvertently
6:13
become the best teacher for China and how to be a
6:16
superpower. Victor, what's your response to
6:19
that? Well, China does not need an
6:22
additional teacher. China does not want to be a
6:25
superpower China. China just wants to be treated
6:28
as an equal and on fair basis. Hang on a minute, I'm going to
6:31
interrupt you. Then you said China doesn't want
6:33
to be a superpower. Come on, China wants to be a
6:36
superpower. China is a superpower.
6:39
A superpower by Chinese definition.
6:41
There's some country very abrasive, very much domineering
6:45
against others, and never treats other countries as an equal.
6:49
Now, this trade war or the tariff war is completely
6:53
pointless. It shows that the United States
6:56
cannot win this trade war. And I hope President Trump will
6:59
tell the American people that it is the American people who will
7:03
eventually pay the bulk of all the tariffs charged by the
7:06
United States against all the other countries, including
7:09
against China. China will never pay a single
7:12
penny of the tariff charged by the United States against
7:15
China's export to the United States.
7:17
Therefore, I truly believe this trade war is really Much Ado
7:22
about nothing. It demonstrates the United
7:24
States doesn't care about free trade.
7:26
It really wants to throw a wedge into free trade.
7:31
For what? For damaging and growing its own
7:34
reputation and respectability. How could he be so sure that
7:40
China will go on? Go on.
7:41
Yuja, please weigh in. Sorry, can, if I may, if I may
7:43
add in here, I mean it's not to disregard or disagree with
7:48
Doctor GAO in here. I think it's what we have in
7:51
here right now is a finally AG2 framework and has been admitted
7:56
by United States. Really, I'm speaking from the
7:58
evidence from the tweet that has been sent at the White House
8:01
this morning by saying the G2 meeting is about to start.
8:04
So I think really after this few months of trade war, United
8:08
States certainly has treated China as that sense of
8:11
undisputed equal. So I think that's what China
8:14
want and I think that's what Doctor Doctor GAO was saying
8:17
about regarding the respect. I think it's that respect
8:19
element what they have as of today.
8:22
Victor GAO, you've been quite rude about America and its
8:26
intentions in the trade war, but Donald Trump has been nothing
8:30
but polite about your leader, Xi Jinping.
8:32
You called him a strong leader, a great leader.
8:35
Why doesn't Xi Jinping return the compliment?
8:38
Why don't you return the compliment?
8:41
I always have the highest respect for the American people
8:45
and for the ingenuity and the creativity of the United States
8:48
as a nation. Now, sometimes I'm critical of
8:51
President Trump and his trade policies.
8:53
That doesn't mean that Victor GAO has any lack of respect for
8:57
the American people. Now for President Trump, while I
9:01
applaud the fact that he used the nice words, present words
9:05
about China against for President Xi Jinping, we always
9:09
need to watch whatever he walks and we cannot purely depend on
9:14
whatever he talks. Therefore, this is the time to
9:17
see whether he talks to talk and walks the walk.
9:21
And this will be the litmus test, I think.
9:24
And my concern is that the greatest predictability in the
9:27
world of today is the unpredictable unpredictability
9:32
of the United States, and the greatest certainty in the world
9:35
of today is the uncertainty of the United States and
9:39
unfortunately, President Trump. There are many things that
9:43
Americans admire about China. You know, I myself was
9:47
travelling through China for quite a long time in 1981 when
9:51
it was a very, very different country.
9:52
And as I've seen the extraordinary transformation of
9:54
China, it is, it's, it's mind blowing, literally, it's
9:58
extraordinary. I wonder what you, Victor GAO,
10:00
admire about America. Well, I have the highest
10:06
admiration you can think about for the American people for
10:09
their creativity, resourcefulness, as well As for
10:13
their great natural endowment and very unmatched geopolitical
10:19
positions in the northern parts of the United States.
10:23
And I think whatever China is doing is trying its best to make
10:27
the United States love peace more rather than try to resolve
10:32
to war to solve any problem between any other with any other
10:36
country. This is why China never looks
10:39
down on the United States and China always wants to engage
10:43
with the United States as an equal partner.
10:46
And we truly believe that if China and the United States can
10:48
this can set their sights of the same major issue in the world,
10:53
there will be nothing in this world which cannot be resolved
10:57
for our mutual benefits as well As for the benefit of mankind as
11:00
a whole. Jujia, I mean, Viktor Gal loves
11:04
to talk about, you know, the China and peace and how it's a
11:06
peace loving country that wants to spread peace around the
11:10
world. But when you look at China's
11:11
military buildup, which is also extraordinary, especially it's
11:16
naval build up in the region, what is what story does that
11:19
tell you? Well, there's a plenty of
11:22
stories in here. I think for for the first layer
11:25
is really that sense of China's obsession regarding neighboring
11:29
countries because this is the country's share border with a 14
11:32
different countries and obviously having secure border
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and to couple to be paired with the modern army and I think
11:39
that's absolutely necessary. Now secondly, I think also given
11:43
Chinese foreign policies obsession towards sovereignty
11:45
and territorial integrity. So when they come to issues
11:48
related to Taiwan and when they come to issues ready to solve
11:52
China Sea of course and China will show a very assertive
11:56
stance on that. So I think it's just the the way
11:59
how the Chinese foreign policy and also the military contact as
12:02
operate as it is today. And of course, I think for many
12:06
and particularly among the G7 countries when I look this and
12:10
they would consider this probably bring more fear than
12:13
admiration regarding China's military capability.
12:17
What do you think? What do you think China wants to
12:19
do with its military capability? What's the end goal here, Gigi?
12:23
Well. The end goal is really about the
12:26
deterrence to win the war without fighting.
12:29
I mean, if we come back to a month ago was that gigantic
12:33
military parade to be put forward at Tiananmen Square?
12:36
And one thing has been quite clear is that the message has
12:39
been clear there and that China does have the capability when
12:43
they come to the military competition.
12:45
Was United States always the others?
12:47
However, whether China decided to use it, that's an entirely
12:50
different matter. Victor GAO is Is that this
12:54
parade of military hardware that we saw in Beijing, you know, is
12:57
the language that comes out of your leader, Xi Jinping?
13:00
Is that about respect? Is it about fear?
13:04
Is it about domination in the region?
13:06
What's it about? Well, the victory parade on
13:10
September the third has only one purpose, that is to defend
13:14
China's sovereignty and national territorial integrity and to
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make the United States and the American people love peace more
13:24
than what they used to. And this is the only purpose.
13:27
China's National Defence is not a measure up against any of our
13:30
neighboring countries. It is a measuring up against
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only one country. That is the United States.
13:36
And the only purpose of measuring up against the United
13:38
States is to make sure that the United States will love peace
13:42
and will no longer be happy to move to the gum and shoot from
13:48
the hip, especially not vis A vis China.
13:51
That's the only purpose. But hang on a minute, Victor.
13:55
It is Chinese components that allow you, you know, the
13:59
Russians to fire missiles and drones into Ukraine.
14:03
China could stop the war in Ukraine today if Xi Jinping
14:07
picked up the phone to Vladimir Putin and said, you know, we can
14:10
be the best of friends, but you cannot wage this war.
14:13
He has refused to do that. He has met Vladimir Putin
14:17
together with the North Korean leader at that parade on the 3rd
14:19
of September. I mean, these are not exactly
14:22
peace loving signals, are they? You are wrong with due respect.
14:28
If China supplies weapons to the Russian side, Russia would have
14:34
won the war overnight. For example, China has this
14:37
monster lethal anti drone weapon and system which can shoot down
14:43
any or any group of drones en masse.
14:48
And this is exactly what the Russians would need because
14:51
drones launched and used by the Ukrainians have done havoc
14:55
against the Russia not only inside the Ukraine but deep
14:59
inside the Russia. This is ample proof to show that
15:03
China does not supply weapons to either Russia or Ukraine.
15:07
And if China supplies weapon to either side, that side receiving
15:12
China weapon will win the war immediately.
15:16
Juju is any of that right? Well, I think regarding the
15:22
Russia, Ukraine and China, and that's an entire separate
15:25
question, but what we can really judging from the meeting what we
15:28
had today, I think President Trump even mentioned that was
15:31
much hoping that can work together with China to resolve
15:35
this war in Ukraine related matters.
15:38
So let's see whether the G2, the framework which we just had this
15:43
morning, we'll be able to solve the Ukraine Russia issue for
15:46
now. But I think at the moment we
15:48
have seen a lot of words floating around and very little
15:51
deeds that how much, firstly Washington get involved and
15:54
secondly, how much Beijing would like to get involved on European
15:57
security architecture. But but if China was not
16:01
providing the kind of non overtly non military aid to
16:07
Russia that it's been providing, you know, for the last two years
16:09
or 2 1/2 years of the war, do you think that Russia would not
16:12
be able to conduct this war as it has done so far?
16:17
Well, I think weapon is one thing, but another element in
16:20
here is this regular trade between China and Russia and
16:24
also the the volumes of trade and that Beijing has purchased
16:28
from Russia that somehow give the bloodline of the to running
16:33
the economy. So it's less about the weapon,
16:35
but I think it's more about the trading relationship that
16:38
Beijing has offered to Russia right now that seems to putting
16:42
under the scope being further examined.
16:45
But to go why is Xi Jinping so friendly with Kim Jong Un of
16:50
North Korea and Vladimir Putin of Russia?
16:52
I mean, if he is this great, amazing world leader as Trump
16:56
has described him, surely he should be keeping a different
16:58
kind of company. Well, for the record, China and
17:03
DPRK have the only blood treaty between China and any other
17:08
country. That means after the end of the
17:12
Korean War, China and DPRK have signed mutual defence treaty
17:17
whereby each side will need to come to the other side's defence
17:21
if the other side is attacked. Now this treaty is automatically
17:26
renewable after 20 years and it has never been terminated.
17:31
That means between China and DPRK we do have this time
17:36
honoured mutual defence treaty and China only has this defence
17:40
treaty with DPRK, not with any other country.
17:44
That means if any country wants to second guess China's
17:47
determination to come to DPRK's aid if DPRK is attacked
17:53
militarily, then please read the national and the mutual defence
17:57
treaty between China and DPRK. Now between China and Russia, we
18:02
engage in normal trade with each other.
18:04
China will never allow any other country to disapprove or to
18:08
disqualify China from engaging with any other country,
18:13
including Russia, in normal trade relations unless it is
18:17
being blocked by the United Nations Security Council.
18:21
That is the only litmus test. China does not allow any
18:25
sanction imposed by any other country except the sanctions
18:29
blessed by the United Nations Security Council.
18:33
I want to talk about nuclear weapons and nuclear testing a
18:36
little bit, if I may. Donald Trump actually, to many
18:39
people's surprise, also announced today on his way back
18:42
to Washington that he wants to resume nuclear testing
18:46
immediately after having not done so for 33 years.
18:52
Now, what does Beijing make of that statement?
18:56
Well, Beijing's policy about nuclear weapons and use of
19:00
nuclear weapons and non use of nuclear weapons against non
19:03
nuclear weapon countries or nuclear weapon free zones is
19:07
well recorded. China will never use nuclear
19:10
weapons against any other country ahead of time.
19:13
And China will never allow any other country which uses nuclear
19:17
weapon against China to survive China's nuclear retaliation.
19:22
That means China has built up MAD capabilities to deter any
19:28
country in the world which may be MAD enough to strike China
19:31
with nuclear weapons. China will never do this kind of
19:35
thing against any other country, but China will never allow that
19:39
nuclear power to strike China first to survive China's brutal,
19:44
ruthless nuclear retaliation. I hope President Trump will get
19:48
that message. And I hope the United States
19:50
will never ponder the possibility of using nuclear
19:53
weapon against China because that will trigger immediate
19:57
nuclear annihilation of the United States by the Chinese
20:01
retaliation. I mean, the Americans have not
20:05
even dropped the slightest hint that they might want to target
20:07
anyone with nuclear weapons, let alone China.
20:10
So. So why are you so robust in your
20:12
language? No, it's not.
20:15
My language is robust. It is.
20:18
China's position is as robust as you can expect.
20:22
China will not attack any country first with nuclear
20:25
weapons, but China will never allow any nuclear power which
20:29
strikes China first with nuclear weapon to survive China's
20:34
nuclear retaliation period. That's robustness you may be
20:39
calling for. And just briefly on this, do you
20:41
think that China will now also resume testing of nuclear
20:45
weapons? China has never stopped nuclear
20:48
testing. China's nuclear stockpile is a
20:51
fraction of that of the United States or Russia.
20:54
But China's position is very clear.
20:56
China will have enough nuclear warheads after the first nuclear
21:01
strike by any nuclear power to make sure that that nuclear
21:05
power which strikes China first will be annihilated by nuclear
21:09
weapon. That is Armageddon, period.
21:15
I think, yeah, I'd just like to adding on on this element in
21:18
here. So while we're talking about the
21:19
PRK, while we're talking about China and we also talk about
21:22
Russia and Moscow earlier, I think one of the biggest worry
21:26
Beijing would have right now at this moment is that a close ties
21:30
between the DPRK and Russia is does not serve China's interests
21:35
very well. Now having both surrounded by
21:38
nuclear neighbors and China's policy obviously is do not root
21:42
out the first by not using the nuclear.
21:44
However, I think these things need to be said that what Russia
21:48
and DPRK has been doing is not something at Beijing's best
21:52
interest at the moment. OK, let's move on to, I want to
21:57
get back to the, you know, the, the trade relationship between
22:00
America and China, which is, you know, at the heart of the
22:03
meeting that we had today. And, and I just wonder, Victor
22:07
GAO, whether you think at the end of the day, you know,
22:10
American China can find some kind of mutual understanding
22:14
where they both, you know, produce high end goods when it
22:17
comes to, you know, artificial intelligence.
22:20
You know, they both produce electric vehicles.
22:23
You know, they help each other on things like climate change.
22:26
Or do you think that the competition between these two
22:29
great powers is so intense that actually, whatever anyone says,
22:34
we are slowly moving towards some kind of confrontation?
22:39
No, I don't think so. I think about the end of the
22:41
day, I truly believe in the inevitability of peace between
22:45
China and the United States. I'm a complete opposer to the
22:49
so-called destined for war scenario between China and the
22:52
United States. Allow me to use soybean as an
22:55
example. China has the biggest demand for
22:57
soybean and if the United States wants to wait tariff war against
23:02
China, then China will not buy a single item of soybean to the
23:07
great detriment of the soybean growers in the United States.
23:10
That means the United States should give up any idea of
23:14
weaponizing tariff against China because otherwise China will
23:17
retaliate. China will be ready to see
23:21
complete winding down to zero of the two way trading goods If the
23:26
United States wants to weaponize tariff.
23:28
That is the bottom line. China wants to engage with the
23:31
United States. China wants to buy as much
23:34
soybean as the American farmers can grow and China's the only
23:38
biggest market for soybean amazingly.
23:41
Therefore, President Trump should really think about the
23:44
well-being of the American farmers before he even thinks
23:48
about the crazy idea of launching tariff war against
23:51
China. We should go back to square one.
23:54
That means China and the United States don't weaponize tariff
23:58
against each other. That is the better way between
24:01
China and the United States. Right.
24:04
But what about Chinese factories?
24:05
You have a manufacturing bubble. You know, you after your
24:09
property bubble burst, you put all your assets and all your
24:12
investment into manufacturing. You want to become, you know,
24:15
the, the world's, you know, single most important
24:18
manufacturing power and you're brilliant at it.
24:20
But you need to sell the stuff that you make.
24:22
And you can't sell all of it to China or even to Southeast Asia
24:26
or to Europe. You're going to have to sell a
24:28
lot of it to America. So that is where the Americans
24:31
have a stranglehold over you, don't they?
24:34
Because if you don't sell the stuff, your factories go bust
24:36
and your workers get very unhappy.
24:39
With due respect, I completely disagree with you, Sir.
24:43
Why? Because the United States has
24:45
been calling for decoupling for at least seven or eight years.
24:49
Do you think China will not prepare for that extreme
24:53
situation? China's fully prepared if the
24:56
United States really wants to decouple from China, meaning
24:59
there will be no more trade between China and the United
25:01
States, if that's what the United States wants to see, and
25:04
China will be fully prepared. Do you know what we are talking
25:07
about now? We are talking about landing
25:10
persons on the moon ahead of any other country.
25:14
We are talking about fusion technology to generate power
25:18
without limit and bringing the benefits to the 8 billion people
25:22
in the world. We are talking about deep space,
25:25
deep sea. We are talking about everything
25:27
to be enabled by AI. We are not not talking about
25:31
producing toys or garments or textiles or shoes anymore.
25:36
We are talking really about the cutting edge technology, the
25:40
breakthrough that mankind can think about.
25:43
That will be the stabilizing factor for the Chinese economic
25:47
growth. I don't think there is any other
25:49
country in the world which is so focused on what we call new
25:54
qualitative productivity, which is a tongue twister, but which
25:57
means you generate productivity through technological
26:03
breakthroughs. That's what China is focused
26:06
upon now, all. Right.
26:08
Do you? Do you buy?
26:10
Do you buy what Victor is selling?
26:13
Just to putting this the not the tongue twister, but the new
26:16
terms on the economic terms that Beijing has defined.
26:20
Putting it aside, I think what we have seen so far really again
26:24
judging from the readouts we have from both and today is
26:27
actually United States has promising to invested more in
26:30
China. And that is actually not
26:32
reducing the dependency, but actually increasing the
26:36
dependency between China and United States.
26:38
And if we're talking about market behaviour and what United
26:42
States been asking, asking China to purchasing extra soya beans,
26:46
that is actually a market distortion that is not actually
26:49
something that follow the market economy.
26:51
So whether China's willing to do that, that is up to Beijing to
26:54
decide. On one hand.
26:55
Then I think on the other hand, Beijing has already learned from
26:58
the sense of unpredictability and also the the economic
27:03
behaviour that's set up by the Trump administration.
27:05
So what Beijing has decided is not to putting all the eggs in
27:09
one basket. I think equally United States is
27:11
playing on a similar strategy in here, do not overlay dependent
27:16
on China and like likewise I think European Union does the
27:18
same thing. So I think what we have right
27:21
now is every single country, major economies in the world,
27:24
they all become so inward looking and it has LED into the
27:28
situation where we are today. So it's less of the dependency,
27:31
but it's more about setting the forgeries and how can I protect
27:34
oneself. OK.
27:37
Just finally, I want to spend a minute or two talking about
27:39
Taiwan. First, you Juja Taiwan, as far
27:43
as I can gather, didn't come up at all in the meeting.
27:46
Certainly there was nothing in the official readout about
27:48
Taiwan. Does that surprise you?
27:52
No, it's not surprising me at all.
27:53
I think really judging from the the results and also judging
27:57
from the mood was United States that obviously Taiwan is a
28:00
major, major issue between the two.
28:03
And then that's probably the fundamental agreement between
28:06
the Beijing and the United States back to 1979 when they
28:09
formally established diplomatic relations.
28:12
So I think any major changes regarding Taiwan, firstly that
28:16
would require to have some at least foundational level of
28:19
trust between Beijing and Washington.
28:22
And moment I do not see that trust actually exist.
28:24
And secondly, they are China Hawks around the Trump
28:28
administration and WHO deliberately looking for changes
28:33
in status towards Taiwan. So I think really for Donald
28:36
Trump himself, and he's not really willing to make a very
28:39
bold move for that. But you got a final question to
28:43
you. Do you think if you if your
28:46
government were to encroach on Taiwan militarily, either
28:49
through a naval blockade or an invasion, and we know that Xi
28:52
Jinping is on the record for saying that he wants Taiwan to
28:55
be reunified, as you put it, with the motherland at some
28:58
stage before he leaves office. Do you think that President
29:02
Trump, should he be in the White House at the time, will sit by
29:06
and do nothing, or will he intervene and use American power
29:10
to stop you? First of all, let's be honest,
29:13
the real status of the relations across the two sides of the
29:17
Taiwan Strait is the unfinished civil war back in 1949.
29:21
So if China really moves to achieve unification or
29:25
liberation of Taiwan, it is the resurrection of the unfinished
29:29
civil war. Do you really think the United
29:31
States or President Trump or anyone else in the White House
29:34
want to be involved in the civil war between the two sides of the
29:37
Taiwan Strait? That's number one.
29:39
I'm completely ruling that option out on the table.
29:43
Secondly, the status of Taiwan being part of China is carving
29:48
stone in the Cairo Declaration and the Boston Proclamation.
29:51
No one can change that. Whether you want to try that or
29:54
not, that's another matter. But you can never change the
29:57
final verdict of history in the Cairo Declaration and the Boston
30:01
Proclamation, meaning China's completely on the right side of
30:05
history. If we want to have another civil
30:07
war to finish the unfinished civil war back in 1949, that's
30:12
China's internal matter. Taiwan will be liberated by
30:16
peaceful means preferably, or by a resurrected civil war if it is
30:22
necessary. But you don't.
30:24
Want to be liberated, Victor Gow.
30:25
They don't want to be liberated. They quite like living in their
30:28
own country. The majority of Tiny do not want
30:31
to be part of the People's Republic of China.
30:34
Well, the people in the Confederation did not want to
30:37
join the Union, but President Lincoln decided otherwise.
30:40
President Lincoln decided to bring them back to the Union
30:43
with force if it is necessary. And this is exactly what the
30:47
Union did against the Confederation.
30:50
And that is the only logical conclusion for the relations
30:54
between the Federation on the one side and the Confederation
30:57
on the other side. The Confederation was defeated
31:00
and now they are very much part of the Union.
31:03
And the United States after the Civil War has been one nation
31:08
under God, indivisible. That is the truth of the United
31:11
States. It will be the truth for China
31:13
too. One day when China is reunited,
31:16
you will see China will never be divisible and no one can ever
31:21
dare to split any part of China away from China.
31:26
Very quick one to you Jujo, to finish the podcast.
31:30
In how many years from now do you expect Beijing to make a
31:33
move on Taiwan? Well, I think we have the second
31:37
Centennial goal. So at some .2049 we have been
31:43
reserved one way or another. Let me put in here.
31:46
That's that's quite a long time frame, I think.
31:48
I think Xi Jinping would like to be done sooner rather than
31:51
later. Thanks very much to both of you.
31:54
Victor GAO, who stayed up late for us in Beijing, thank you
31:57
very much indeed. And Doctor Zhujia, Dr. GAO and
32:00
Doctor Zhujia in London, thanks to you as well.
32:02
That's it for this episode of THE Forecast.
32:04
Until next time, goodbye.