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NFL Week 18 SNF Showdown | Bills @ Dolphins | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Fall. System's going clear the left? What is going on? Ship at
• 0:37
  Nation YouTube station? I got my guy Ham. We're back for a week
• 0:40
  eighteen to final week of the regular season. We got playoff implication on the
• 0:44
  line, plenty of storylines, hoping my Packers can squeak through with a win
• 0:48
  against those wolful number one overall draft pick Chicago Bears later on this afternoon.
• 0:53
  But how much happy Sunday? Man, how's your weekend? How you been
• 0:56
  what's going on? Brother? Yeah? Yeah, happy Sunday. Last Sunday,
• 1:00
  regular season Sunday of the week, and we got one of the better
• 1:03
  games of the season. Right, winner gets the number two seed. Dolphins
• 1:07
  lose, they're the five seed. The Bills lose, they could potentially be
• 1:11
  home for the playoffs. So there's a lot riding on this game. Both
• 1:15
  teams are gonna want to get this game because obviously you're guaranteed two home games
• 1:19
  with a win, you're guaranteed to go on the road with a loss,
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  or even be at home. So a lot to talk about. Let's get
• 1:26
  right into it. Yeah, let's get right into it. We got a
• 1:29
  forty eight total here, Miami three point dogs here in this one, Obviously,
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  the last matchup between these two back in Week four right in Buffalo was
• 1:38
  a sixty eight point total where Buffalo kind of beat the breaks off from right
• 1:42
  forty eight to twenty. Really wasn't close to the whole game. Obviously,
• 1:44
  Josh Allen nuked went four touchdowns right with a rushing touchdown, three in the
• 1:49
  air, passed for over three hundred yards, So he's definitely gonna be talking
• 1:53
  point, especially once we jump into the captains slot here talking to captains man,
• 1:57
  you got Tyreek Hill sixteen to eight, Josh Allen at sixteen to five,
• 2:00
  which you don't see too much Josh Allen on a showdown slate as not
• 2:06
  the most expensive captain, so definitely touch on that. You got Stefan Diggs
• 2:08
  there at fifteen to three, and then you got two of them, right,
• 2:12
  you got two at fifteen k flat in the game where you expect Miami
• 2:15
  to be playing balls of the walls here and expect them to have to throw
• 2:20
  the ball a ton here like they did last game. If it goes anyway
• 2:23
  like that. Obviously, Jalen Waddle likely gonna miss this game, so Tyreek
• 2:29
  Hill all the ownership is probably gonna focus on him. But then you got
• 2:31
  cheap guys, right like Cedric Willis, Wilson, Braxton Burrios. Once we
• 2:36
  get more into the value plays, I think in the flex that that matters
• 2:38
  more than the captain. But hit on this captain spot where you're looking at
• 2:42
  the captain here tonight. Yeah, Captain's gonna be pretty pretty condensed up top.
• 2:46
  I mean we got the big boys you said, I think what forty
• 2:49
  eight point total Tyreek Keel an amazing play on the captain captain spot. No
• 2:54
  Wattle. We don't think Wattle's gonna be there. We don't think most it's
• 2:59
  gonna be there. And all that Tyreek has done the last two weeks is
• 3:01
  get twelve targets, fourteen targets before that, looking back to the last time
• 3:07
  these two played, only got five targets. I think that changes tonight.
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  So Tyreek Hill definitely squarely in play. And then you mentioned it, Josh
• 3:15
  Allen absolutely newt this team last time, only sixteen to five tonight, nads
• 3:20
  And I've done this show. This is the eighteenth time this year we've seen
• 3:23
  eighteen to five nineteen thousand for captains all year. With Josh Allen's legs with
• 3:28
  Josh Allen's arm in a must win game coming off of forty burger last time
• 3:32
  against these two teams. I think Josh Allen is a great play, but
• 3:36
  naturally ownership will follow that. And then you mentioned it as well. I
• 3:39
  actually like Tua on the other side as well. I like Tua to hit
• 3:43
  the bonus tonight. I think they're gonna have to throw to beat this Buffalo
• 3:46
  team. So give me some Tua and then give me some Devin Knock chain
• 3:50
  If Mostart and Wattle Doo Sait as well. All this guy did last week
• 3:54
  with no Mostert twenty six point seven DraftKings points. Going back to Week four,
• 4:00
  what do you do against that same Buffalo team put up thirty Draft Kings
• 4:02
  points. So aux change definitely in play for me. And then the only
• 4:05
  other one that I would really have interest in would be James Cook on the
• 4:09
  Buffalo side. He's been a slower these last two weeks, but man,
• 4:14
  the two weeks before that, he was absolutely lights out, gonna catch passes,
• 4:18
  gonna do all those things that James Cook does going home to Miami.
• 4:24
  So give me some James Cook. That's gonna be kind of my player pull
• 4:27
  for those captain would be those would be those five not really going below that
• 4:30
  in the captain spot needs yeah, no excellent breakdown obviously, Tyreek Hill,
• 4:35
  I do think, still comes in as the chalkiest caps even being the most
• 4:40
  expensive. Because it is sixteen to eight right, you could argue him and
• 4:44
  Josh Allen could be eighteen to five to nineteen thousand in the captain spot here
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  tonight there now, and it is a big total forty eight forty eight point
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  total right Miami is three point dogs, which obviously leads to the game script
• 4:56
  likely coming from behind right having to pass more. So I do like Tyreek
• 5:00
  Hill, but my favorite captain is Josh Allen. Don't typically go in on
• 5:03
  captain quarterbacks too often here tonight, but I can see a case where you
• 5:08
  just locked Josh Allen here in the captain spot because it is a must win
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  game for Buffalo right backs against the Wall. If they lose this game,
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  they could potentially miss the playoffs, which is crazy to say them missing the
• 5:19
  playoffs at ten and seven when you got the NFC. Some of their teams
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  in the NFC over there that are basically right around five hundred going to make
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  the playoffs. So Josh Allen. I think he comes out. You don't
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  need him to get forty like you got last time. I think if he
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  goes out there and does what he can, he's always that threat. Right.
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  They're probably the second best team in the league, and that the old
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  Tush push behind obviously the Eagles, who pretty much created that. But Josh
• 5:45
  Allen himself, he's got the rushing upside, he's got the passing upside.
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  Here. Quarterbacks beat up Miami pretty good all season long. We got obviously
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  seventeen weeks a day to go off of, and Miami ranks bottom third in
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  the league against quarterbacks opposing qbs for fantasy point, like Josh Allen here,
• 6:00
  and then I actually really like Stefan Diggs here as well. The thing about
• 6:04
  the Bills is, right when the Bills are rolling, they kind of key
• 6:08
  in on one guy, and it's usually Stefon Diggs. So I really like
• 6:12
  Stefan Diggs here. He's coming off of four down weeks right overall last time
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  against Miami seven or six for one hundred and twenty and three touchdowns, so
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  I don't expect him to get the hat trick there and touchdowns again tonight.
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  But if he gets you too. You could see Stefan Diggs a little explosion
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  game here backs against the wall for him and Josh Allen. You could see
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  a little two four build hmdwhich here throws Stefan Diggs up in the captain spot,
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  throw Josh Allen in the flax, and run it back with four Miami
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  pieces, because you're gonna have Miami value, right with guys like Cedric Wilson,
• 6:46
  Brax and Barrios. Even River Creakcraft down there right with Jalen Walla likely
• 6:51
  missing this game. So really like those two a ton on the Miami side,
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  I think my favorite Miami piece is actually gonna be devon a chain.
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  He this team up last game. Not to say last game means a lot,
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  but I mean even last week, right, He fourteen for one oh
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  seven. He's just so explosive. Anytime he touches the ball, he can
• 7:09
  break it for eighty plus yards for a TD. Right, he's been involved
• 7:13
  in the passing game. He's had at least three targets in every game the
• 7:16
  last five weeks. It looks like with ceiling of nine targets, five targets.
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  He's catching the passes, been involved in the receiving bat, especially with
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  the guy like even if Mostart's in there, I think he's still fine because
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  I think one of Mostart or a Watta are definitely gonna miss. And if
• 7:32
  one of those misses, if both of them misses, obviously out Chain becomes
• 7:35
  a really good play. But even if only Waddle misses and most AT's still
• 7:40
  in there, I think that keeps his ownership in check. And I think
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  they're gonna involve a playmaker like Auchanin right with when they lose another playmaker like
• 7:47
  Jalen Wattle. So I really like Auchang quite a bit. So it's pretty
• 7:50
  much those three captains that I'm looking at. I'm gonna be a little bit
• 7:54
  under on Tyreek Hill, which is scary. I just think everyone, especially
• 7:57
  if Waddle misses, which seems like it's gonna happen, and everyone's gonna force
• 8:01
  feed Tyreek in their captain spot, I'll be happy to take the upside in
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  Josh Allen Diggs in at Chain from the captain spot. I guess if you
• 8:09
  want a lower owned sleeper spot here, Dalton k and Kid, I think
• 8:13
  is a risky play here, but it allows you it's more mid tier ninety
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  three hundred tight ends beat up this team pretty good. Miami ranks twentieth in
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  the NFL against opposing tight ends. I get it. Dawston Knox's back,
• 8:26
  but Dalton Kincaid's still the guy there. Even last week you saw him get
• 8:30
  get more involved. Had seven targets last week eighty seven yards. Caught four
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  of the seven targets. He's just a big guy and it's his price point
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  for me. So it's pretty much those four and move on for me in
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  the captain spot here. Any additional thoughts for the captain spot. Yeah,
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  no, I'll think I'm a little bit different than you and Tyreek. I
• 8:48
  like I like Tyreek a lot. I like Josh Allen a lot. Those
• 8:52
  would be my two favorite, but certainly get the stand And yeah, I'm
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  digs Man. What happened to Diggs? I mean, obviously I don't know
• 8:58
  what top five, top ten receivers, but he's just, uh, for
• 9:01
  whatever reason, ever since they made the offensive coordinator change, just hasn't done
• 9:03
  it. Can he do it? Absolutely? But I'm gonna now, I'm
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  not gonna. I'm not gonna be there tonight. Dates Yeah, no,
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  that's perfect. Good, Okay, let's jump into the flex play here.
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  Obviously, it seems like we're on the spend up captains. I'm i'm I
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  have a little bit of interest in Kincaid at that captain spot, which makes
• 9:22
  it a little bit easier to avoid some of these uh value guys. But
• 9:26
  we do have some likely pretty decent value. I would say River Craycraft right
• 9:31
  at eight hundred, I think is a solid value play. Braxon Barrios at
• 9:35
  twenty six hundred, solid value play. You got Dawson Knox down there at
• 9:37
  two K, Jeff Wilson Junior, Jeram Smith. Ye, don't really like
• 9:43
  those guys a ton, But talk about this Bill's defense at thirty eight hundred
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  here, I think that's an interesting talking point. And then obviously got Jameson
• 9:50
  Sanders and Tyler Bass two pretty solid kickers overall, but they're I mean,
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  Jason Sanders five K, he's a thousand dollars more than Dolphins defense, twelve
• 9:58
  hundred dollars more than the Bills defense. And then same thing Tyler Bass,
• 10:03
  I mean, basically a thousand dollars more than those defenses here, and even
• 10:07
  in a high point total, especially in a game where you see a lot
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  of pass right, any one of these guys can jump the route, take
• 10:13
  it, take it for six, and you're kind of swimming, especially at
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  that price point there. So hit on the kickers, hitting the defenses and
• 10:20
  then any of these value plays that you're looking at will start. Yeah,
• 10:24
  let's touch on the on the on the on the defenses real quick. And
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  anytime there's a high total, we know there's gonna be a lot of action
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  going on, a lot of dropbacks, a lot of passes. Obviously that
• 10:33
  leads to more sacks, more turnovers, more pick sixes. I've talked about
• 10:37
  it numerous times on this on this on this show. But last year in
• 10:39
  the Super Bowl, both teams were in the thirties and I think it was
• 10:43
  the chief that were in the optimal. Took took a Jalen Hurd's fumble to
• 10:46
  the house and the Chiefs were still optimal even though they gave up, you
• 10:50
  know, thirty plus points. So I don't mind either one of the defenses.
• 10:52
  In a situation like this, it takes a pick six or two,
• 10:56
  uh, to be in the optible, So don't mind either one of these
• 10:58
  defenses, and then I'll be lower on the kickers tonight just because I do
• 11:01
  think there's gonna be some points scored. You touched on it. My favorite
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  low, you know, lower priced guy, if you will, would be
• 11:09
  Cedric Wilson at forty four hundred. I got in the box last weekend.
• 11:13
  You know, has seen four, seen five targets. He's their number two.
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  Uh they they they they create plays for him down in the red zone.
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  Bigger body type of guy. So I definitely don't mind Cederic Wilson down
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  there. On on the other side, your boy Khalil Shakir at five to
• 11:31
  two, I don't mind him. He seems to be getting a little bit
• 11:35
  more involved in this offense, much of the chagrin of Stefan Dick. So
• 11:39
  I don't mind Shakiir down there. And then the other one that that I
• 11:43
  would I would touch on would be Dawson Knox. Uh. Dawson Knox hasn't
• 11:50
  done much since he's been back, and Ken Kaid is the guy, so
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  certainly don't mind ken Kaid. But at two k maybe the chips are on
• 11:58
  the line. Uh Islands is gonna go to his guy Knox, who he
• 12:01
  has a good rapport with. So one game Slate, you know, we
• 12:05
  talk about it all the time to one game slate, anything can happen.
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  Dalson knocks at two k really opens up a lot, and you know,
• 12:11
  could he have you know, four catches fifty yards in a touchdown? Absolutely,
• 12:16
  So give me some Dawson knocks at two k would kind of be my
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  sneaky player of the day if you will. Yeah, No, I like
• 12:22
  that. Just looking at snaps last week because I believe Wattle was out last
• 12:26
  week. Correct me if I'm on or got that early. Yeah. So
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  I'm looking at the snaps from last week and Cedric Wilson played ninety two percent
• 12:33
  of the snaps. He's forty four hundred. So I really like Cedric Wilson.
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  There. I'm in lockstep, arm and arm with you. Ownership is
• 12:39
  definitely gonna follow. I mean, he's gonna probably be fifty plus percent owned
• 12:41
  because everyone can see those same numbers. I can. It's not doesn't take
• 12:45
  a rocket scientist to figure that one out. But I do like that.
• 12:48
  Braxton Barrios, interesting enough, almost played fifty percent of the snaps. I'm
• 12:54
  seeing sub ten percent ownership on him at twenty six hundred, so I don't
• 12:58
  hate a little pivot man. I mean Cedric Wilson forty four hundred jumping down
• 13:01
  to Braxon Barrios, leaving that a little about fifteen hundred or so on the
• 13:05
  table. I don't hate that, right, I mean they're both playing the
• 13:09
  Stamps. Obviously, Cedric Wilson's got the snaps there, but Burios, I
• 13:15
  mean four cheaper wide receiver three still played forty seven percent of the Stamps last
• 13:18
  week with no no Jalen Waddles, So I don't hate that at his price
• 13:22
  point. I think that's good. Interesting Trent Shirfield last week he played twenty
• 13:28
  eight percent of the STAPs. I don't know if that was a fluke or
• 13:33
  what, but he's two hundred dollars. Do you have any take in a
• 13:37
  high total right new offensive coordinator there? I mean two hundred dollars guy playing
• 13:41
  thirty percent of the Stamps or so, I don't hate it in a in
• 13:45
  a spot where you want to pay up for Josh Allen captain, you want
• 13:48
  to pay up for Tyreek Hill, Stefan Diggs captain. For myself, what's
• 13:52
  your take on a guy like Trent Surfield at two hundred dollars? Yeah,
• 13:58
  I mean at two hundred bucks and heat you just you just alluded to a
• 14:01
  guy that's gonna be on the field. Uh, not a whole whole lot,
• 14:03
  but at least some. And you know, something happens to Shakir he's
• 14:07
  playing. Uh we saw him with three targets last week. Hey, could
• 14:11
  he get another three or four? Yeah? Absolutely, So don't mind him
• 14:15
  if you had to. I don't think I'll need to get there. Uh,
• 14:18
  but but that would kind of be down in that range just looking at
• 14:20
  everybody. You know, you got Uncle Lenny coming back. He's two hundred
• 14:24
  bucks, but we saw him, you know, the way they utilized him,
• 14:26
  and I think it was the only game that he was was active this
• 14:30
  year was against those Chargers, So Uncle Lenny would be down there as well.
• 14:35
  I don't think I'll get to those two hundred dollars guys. I just
• 14:37
  think of just building some teams. While you were talking, I think I
• 14:39
  could build some pretty strong teams without without those guys. Yeah, I don't
• 14:45
  love punting down here, especially being a three max five max player typically on
• 14:48
  MMM outside that mean twenty that mean twenty max three dollars contest there, So
• 14:56
  I don't hate it, but a guy like Trent Schurfield. I think if
• 14:58
  people are punting, going to go with a guy like River creak Craft,
• 15:01
  just especially because obviously Miami's a little bit shorter handed, right, A lot's
• 15:05
  gonna miss this, and it's Trent Surfield last week actually outsnapped cray Craft.
• 15:11
  Obviously, there are different teams, different scenarios, but you save a little
• 15:15
  bit of money. So I do like that. I don't hate that.
• 15:20
  And then I'm with you, Cedric Wilson. I really like Barrios, I
• 15:22
  really like I don't really like Dusty lat Murray or Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson.
• 15:28
  I don't really like any of these value plays outside of Trent Sherfield.
• 15:33
  From the Bill's side, I'm not on Uncle Lenny, right, playoff Lenny,
• 15:35
  whatever you want to say. Hardy not on that. I mean,
• 15:39
  Hardy really lost his roles. Tupac Shakir last week played what eighty two percent
• 15:45
  of the snaps, So I mean it's pretty tough for a guy like Hardy,
• 15:48
  who has a pretty similar kind of role and skill set that Tupac does.
• 15:54
  That. I just don't think you want to save with any of these
• 15:58
  value Buffalo guys outside Trent Surefield would be my favorite guy. If you need
• 16:02
  the salary right, two hundred dollars. We've seen it on the showdown slates.
• 16:06
  He catches a pass for thirty yards right, gets you four or five
• 16:10
  DraftKings points. That could be enough. Right in the spot when Tyreek Hill
• 16:14
  goes off for thirty, Josh Allen goes forty, right, Stefan Diggs goes
• 16:18
  for twenty five. These high priced guys, Devin a Chain goes for twenty
• 16:22
  five. Right, All these guys up there that allow you you need those
• 16:26
  plays. So I don't hate that Kickers. I have a little bit more
• 16:32
  interest in Jason Sanders just looking at his season. I mean just since week
• 16:37
  eleven, I mean eleven, twelve, ten, nine to twelve, twenty
• 16:41
  two seven. I mean he hasn't scored under seven. Basically, he hasn't
• 16:44
  scored under ten DraftKings points since uh since week nine, So Miami definitely can
• 16:51
  stall out here. I don't hate Jason Sanders at five K I definitely prefer
• 16:56
  him over Bass. I just think obviously with Josh Allen, they're just more
• 17:00
  likely to go for it on on a little shorter yardage with the tush push,
• 17:03
  with the Josh Allen piece than settle for field goals. So I do
• 17:07
  like Jason Sanders over Tyler Bass here tonight, and then I don't mind these
• 17:11
  defenses, like you said, right high point total, the ball is going
• 17:15
  to be going through the air a lot, I think, and any of
• 17:18
  these guys can jump a route, take it for six, and you're kind
• 17:22
  of you're kind of swimming at that value play there. So I think we
• 17:26
  broke it down pretty good here. Any final takes on terms of roster construction
• 17:30
  in this one, Ham Yeah, No, Like I said, I think
• 17:33
  I think we talked about it pretty good. You know, hope it for
• 17:34
  a good game. I think it's going to be a high scoring game.
• 17:37
  Obviously, you're gonna want to get the guys that do the best in there
• 17:41
  and then find those values. You know, we mentioned a couple two hundred
• 17:44
  dollar guys that you like. I'm a little bit higher on Knox than you
• 17:48
  are. So yeah, so looking forward to it. Appreciate everybody tuning in
• 17:51
  this season. Really enjoyed doing the show, and hopefully we're back next year.
• 17:56
  Yeah. No, I appreciate everyone that's tuned in all season long.
• 17:59
  Again, if you go having hit that like button hit that subscribe button helps
• 18:03
  us out a ton here and PGA kicked off this past week, actually it's
• 18:07
  ending today. We've got a couple of sweats in the discord and we do
• 18:11
  have PGA only packages over at ship in Nation dot com if for interest in
• 18:14
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• 18:18
  get, obviously PGA included. We have an amazing PGA team over here,
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• 18:26
  NBA, NHL, obviously NFL playoffs coming around here. MLB will be here
• 18:30
  before shortly we know it, Hamdwich, You and I'll be doing a lot
• 18:33
  of shows I'm sure again for MLB, which is always fun. But now
• 18:37
  it's been a pleasure doing these shows, these Sunday night breakdowns. I think
• 18:40
  we had a pretty solid season, so looking to keep that rolling here tonight,
• 18:45
  keep it rolling throughout the playoffs. Obviously we won't be doing these shows,
• 18:48
  but we'll have you covered still right here on this YouTube channel here.
• 18:52
  So thanks so much to everyone all season long for the support. How much
• 18:56
  it's been a pleasure man doing these shows for eighteen weeks right here. For
• 19:00
  the NFL season, I'm looking to round it out with another shipper here tonight,
• 19:03
  so it's been a pleasure man. Good luck to everyone today in their
• 19:08
  contest. Hopefully your Week eighteen's going well. There's a lot of variants in
• 19:11
  week eighteen, so hopefully you're on the right side of the variants and hopefully
• 19:15
  you're winning a lot of money and making that little little checkbook fatter after it
• 19:22
  gets drained pretty good for the holiday season. So four hand much I've made
• 19:26
  to good luck tonight in your contest. Hope to see those ship in Nation
• 19:29
  logos at the top. Let's ship it