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NFL Week 16 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is our week sixteen Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: off of a four and one week in our contest,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: following up a three and two week the week before.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: A lot of lines we liked on Sunday have already moved,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: which is why you need to listen to the Sunday
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: show if you want to get the best of the number.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Simon and I were just discussing before we came on
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Big Big line Moves today's show. We will get to
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: our Simon says, in our exact decision. On Thursday, we
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: will finalize our big Balls Better of the Week, our
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: foxhol our Survivor, Actually we probably won't get the Survivor,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: and our money line parlay, and don't forget this episode.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: We'll look at the entire boarder we begin narrowing down
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the five picks we'll enter in the Favorites Podcast. One
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest still free
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: and open for sign ups. It's awarding weekly and season
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: long cash prizes at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Let's
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: bring in my co host, my bff, my companion, Mi
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: cam Padre Professional Better, Simon hotter Heado Simon, I'm good.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm good. I'm good. I'm good. I'm really good.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Set of this episode last week heading into week fifteen,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: that I thought our handicapping the week before when we
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: had finished three and two turned out to be great.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: That we were just chicken on a couple of games,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and we weren't going to be chicken going to last
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: week and specifically on the Bucks and the Panthers, we
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: were not chicken. It paid off. Let's make a pledge
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: to each other right now. We won't be chickens again.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: We will be courageous in the face of line moves,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: roster moves, quarterback changes, wise, guys chirping in our ears.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: We will be bold, Simon. We will reach for the stars.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: You know why, Why Because they are there. That's where
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: we go next. The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power up the odds on
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boosts specific markets, your winnings and
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• 2:49
  Speaker 1: out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible
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  Speaker 1: super Boosts. Check out the boost and see why it's
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be twenty
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: one or older in pre is in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia or eighteen and other're in Kentucky.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Also,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: please please please remember you can catch every episode of
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Before we get to week sixteen,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: four housekeeping notes. First housekeeping note, and this is big.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: You gotta listen because we've got a very big announcement
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: at the end of this week. Fifteen winners round up
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: in the Favorites Contest through fifteen weeks. Simon, you and
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: I are now forty three and thirty two in the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: contest about fifty seven percent, a little bit above fifty
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: seven percent against the spread, three hundred and eightieth place
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: top three percent. Not bad, not bad at all, especially
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: to the jag off who gave us a one star
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: review because we had two bad weeks in a row.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: You can suck it because you know what, not every
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: week is going to be perfect. We're giving you a podcast.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: We're doing the best we can. One star review after
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: three weeks. You're like that dude Bill who was coming
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: after me because he thought I was not being as
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: transparent as I can. Come on. Week fifteen saw just
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: ninety entries finished five and oh in the contest. We
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: had a tie for first place. Two entries went five
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: and oh with the same tiebreaker. Congrats to Brian Vendetti
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: and Joshua Brady enjoy the cash. This week's producer couple
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Word goes to Jeffrey Hartnett for finishing dead fucking last
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: and the Week fifteen contests going to five, missing the
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker by two hundred and fifty yards. Jeffrey, jeff Jeffrey, Jeffrey.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Please email our producer Matt Mitchell at podcast at actionnetwork
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: dot com to claim you're not cash Brice, thanks for
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: playing week sixteen in the contest. Now tiebreaker total rushing
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: yards and ravens niners on Christmas Night, Good luck to everybody.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Second Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve coming up. There are
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: both Sundays. We will not have our Sunday live recap
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: episode for week sixteen or seventeen. Go spend that time
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: with your families, your friends, your loved ones, handicapping for
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the next day, whatever it takes. Third housekeeping note, here
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: we go, folks, we are running it back. Another live show.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: That's right after the glorious time we all had together.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast returns to the Shepherd and the Knucklehead
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and Hoboken, New Jersey for the greatest sports event of
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the year. That's Wildcard Weekend, folks. Wildcard Weekend, Sunday, January fourteenth, again,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: like last time, doors open at four pm. Simon and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I will be there. We'll have drinks, we'll have merch,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: we'll record our show live at seven point thirty. We're
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: going to sweat the bets together. That was the most
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: fun part of the day, Simon, as you recall, like
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: we were sweating, I think the Titans and the Colts.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: We were sweating the Commanders and that Dolphins like we
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: were sweating the Jets. It was so great to be
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: sweating it with everybody, and then to have unfortunately the
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Niners crushed the Eagles, which is a big game we had.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I can't wait to do it again with everybody, all
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: our listeners. It was just a wonderful event. I think
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: we all felt the warmth. We can't wait to do
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: it again. We're also doing an event that Saturday, Wildcard
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: watch party with Stucky, with Raybon, with Kerner. We're all
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: going to be in town that Saturday, same location, Shepherd
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead four o'clock thirteenth. Check out the links
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: in this episode description. You got RSVP folks last time
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: we were at capacity. We can't wait to see you
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: all there. Futures Portfolio update, So look, Jalen Carter had
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: a sack last night. Think he's about minus five hundred
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: a bet three sixty five. Tyreek Hill's still about two
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: hundred yards ahead of anybody, even though we missed last week. Look,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: the most interesting conversation signmon is MVP bet Josh Shallen
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: at tend to one early in the year. He's a
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: very live dog. We you and I are having a
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: conversation about Christian McCaffrey or Brock Purty. I think it's
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: a narrative, Lord, and I think the narrative is starting
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: to pick up steam for Christian McCaffrey Monday night, if
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: he gets the shine, then by Tuesday morning, I think
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: he's going to be favorite to win MVP.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: I told you, I just think if all things being equal,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: at the end of the dead they're going to give
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: it to Party if they win that game. He does
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: have the story Perdy, where McCaffrey really doesn't. Purdy had
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: major surgery on his elbow. I was one of those
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: doubters where I was like, this guy came back way
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: too soon. They're rushing him back. They shouldn't be trading
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Trey Lance like they were just so all in on
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Party and it worked. I mean, it's crazy to think,
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: but this team was all in on a seventh round pick.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: It's already skewed to the quarterbacks. If he can just
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: do what he's been doing right, if they win this game,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: it will go McCaffrey Offensive Player of the Year MVP
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: will be pretty which just again, it just makes sense
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the way they do these awards. The last running back
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: to win it Adrian Peterson. I told you he had
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: the story at the narrative he had twenties acl the
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: season before. I love, I love where coming from. I
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: hope you're right, because me and you both have bet
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: McCaffrey in a big number. I just I just can't
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: see it getting there.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: We want to cash a big ticket. Let's get into it.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: First game up Thursday night, Los Angeles Rams four point
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: favorites over the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are bad,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: They've beaten bad teams the past two weeks. The Rams
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: have been balling out on offense. To me, it's a
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: roster mismatch, a coaching a coaching mismatch, a short week game. Yeah,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I bet the Rams at minus four. But after I
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: had betted, I said, hey, Evan, throw some stats into
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the script about you know, these games, this situation for
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: these teams, and everything he put in there, nothing will
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: good for betting the favorites at home on Thursday nights.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: It feels like we're getting a little bit of a
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: bump here, probably one point to the Saints team just
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: because it is a short weekend. They're on the road.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: I wanted to be on the Rams here. I'm right
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: with you, Chad. Like my first lawst number, I wanted
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: to be on the Rams. But it's crazy that all
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Like I'm looking in the app right now, all the bets,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: all the tickets are on the Rams, and a couple
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: of books have moved for four and a half back
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  Speaker 2: down to four, So it looks like the pros are
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: on the Saints. If the Pros keep betting and it
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: gets down to three, just like the Ravens last week,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: I'll take that value there, but if not, I probably
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: end up on the Saints chat as painful it is,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: but luckily we don't need to make this one of
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: our five. It's just a weird wonky game where it's like,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: how did the Saints keep up with this? This Rams
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: high powered offense? Last week was the week right they
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: had the stupid turnovers. I can't see the Rams and
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: then back to back weeks having those kind of dumb turnovers.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: So get where Chad's coming from. Taking the Rams here,
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: just just be careful and know the professionals do like
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: the Saints in this game.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: All right. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Simon Sunday night, I mentioned
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: this game, and you were still reeling a little bit
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: because you had invested heavily in the Steelers against the
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Colts on Saturday. And I said, look, this is a
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Tomlin spot underdog at home off a loss, but you
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: were against it. I'm like, all right, let's think about
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: the under And then on Monday morning, I woke up
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: and I was still feeling the Steelers. And then I
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: got a little confirmation bias from Brandon Anderson, who does
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: his hot read in the podcast that Evan and Jolgolantu
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Sunday Nights Action Network round Up for Sunday look Ahead
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: from Monday for the rest of the week. And this
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: is one of those games, Simon. We can't put it
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: in the contest. It's a Saturday game, but we cannot
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: be chicken. Let me read some stats, okay, directly from
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson week five forward as a dog Mike Tomlin
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: sixty nine at home as a dog, seventy nine percent
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Division games in his career twenty five five and one
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent as a dog after a loss of
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: seven or more ninety percent. Again, it's a spread again,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: since he sixty seven percent AFC North Dogs late in
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the season Week sixteen seventeen eighteen sixty four percent. The
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Bengals have no DJ reader Jamar Chase is banged up.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Jake Browning narrative can exist forever. Buy low on the Steelers,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: sell high on the Bengals, wrap it up in a
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: bow early Christmas present, no chickening out Steelers plus two
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: What say you now caveat is I didn't like it
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Sunday because that was in Mitchdruwisky, and I just refuse
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: to put more money on Mitch Druvsky. Thank god Tomlin's
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: come out and said it's gonna be Mason Rudolph, the
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: man with a dent in his head, So I don't know.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: I'll take I'll take him with you, but thank god
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: this won't be in our contest. It's like, I'll bet
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: it just because of what you just said. I knew
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: it was gonna better regardless, but I hate it. I
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: hate I hate backing this Pittsburgh team like I can't.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I can't see another clip of their ride receivers not
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: blocking and letting their running backs get tackled, Like you know,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: it's the classic of they are incredible of drafting these
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: ryge receivers, but this latest group they have have some
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: of the worst attitudes I've ever seen in a rye
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: receiving group. And you know, the guy Pickens might have
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: all the town in the world. He feels like a
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: guy that's gonna be out of the league in like
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: three or four years, just because he has such a
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: shit attitude. Like all he does is bitch on the
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: sideline not getting the ball, and he doesn't hold blocks
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: on the field, so it'stead of getting touchdowns, they're getting
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: tackled at the one yard line. Like he's just he's
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: everything I hate when you play sports when you have
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: that kayuz all the town in the world, but he's
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: such a narcissist that all he thinks about is himself.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: You now, every a play should be with him. It's
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: just like, uh, it kills me. In a team sport
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: where you just need to all be on the same page,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: you have guys like him. So yeah, the fear is
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Tomlins lost his locker room. But Jad just gave you
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: the stats. Me and him, we've been playing this spot
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: every year together. We just always bet Tomlin these kind
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: of spots, So no doubt we're gonna bet it. Go
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: grab it two if you can still find it out
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: there at two and a half. But yeah, it sucks.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: I hate betting this Pittsburgh team. It's just not been fun.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Simon, speaking of narcissism, can you repeat everything you just said.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I was mostly just staring at myself in the zoom
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: when you were talking, so I didn't really hear it
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: about bomb Buffalo at the LA Chargers another Saturday game. Look,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: this is a game talk about not being chicken. I
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: mentioned this to you on Sunday night. It was at fourteen,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: you know, like, of course we got to take it.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: We were as we were recording the show, we saw
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Stucky put the pick in the app He took it
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: at fourteen, stay there until Monday morning. I don't know
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: why I never bet it. I know we had such clarity,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: all those reasons, like I was a chicken, and I
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: just I freaking I freaking regret this so much, and
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: I know I'm gonna have to wait, like hope on
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Saturday it gets back to fourteen. We're going to talk
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: about this stat a couple of times today. Teams to
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: lose by twenty points or more of the previous week
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: facing a team that didn't fifty nine percent against the spread.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty, teams to allow forty plus points in
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: their previous game twenty two to thirteen and two against
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the spread last two seasons, fifty plus points sixh and
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: one the last three seasons. Of course, we got to
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: bet the Chargers, and I just missed the window. And
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: now I'm just annoyed.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it sucks you missed the key number I did.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: I wish I could say I got a ton down
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: on I didn't get that much down on the Chargers.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: I mean the line if it gets the ten, I
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: feel like that kind of shifts to be in the
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: value on Buffalo. And if you're a big teaser guy,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: you gotta be happy. Now I could tease them blow seven's.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: That's pretty nice of the books to do it. I'd
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: be a little weary. It's interesting it's move so much.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, before he came on, I checked if there's
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: any injury news. I'm not really seen anything. I don't
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: know why. I don't know why it's moved so much,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: but I guess it's because you know, the Bills defense,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: as good as they've been playing, it's still a team
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: that's lost major guys, right, there's still a team that
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: teams could should be able to move the ball on them.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: So maybe the books are worried about a back door
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: on this one. It's just it's interesting it's moved so
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: much just because you know it's still I mean, the
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: tickets are very skewed towards the Bills, but the money's
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: pretty even at this point, right, Like if you're looking
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: in the action app, it's you know, there's been some
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: early money on this Chargers team. So yeah, I'm not
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: sure what you should do with this one. People, if
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: you've missed that fourteen thirteen and a half, I guess
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: just wait and maybe you can get the Bills at
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: ten and try to get a nice little middle there,
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: or play them in a teaser. But yeah, for me,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: it's moved too much. When you have a play on
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: a chat.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I think it's it's probably moved because one or two
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: groups came in that we haven't figured out who they
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: are yet, And I bet the Chargers pretty heavy, and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I think there's a bi low sell high and the
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Chargers were so bad and the Bills were so good
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that of course they're going to try to find that
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: delta and what that breaking point is. This line did
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: get down to ten and a half and then it
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: started coming back up.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Like you said, it's extended rest and they have a
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: new coach like that could be the cat bounce. Yeah,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: that's why people are probably betting them. It's just that simple, you.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Know, instead of the straight cat strut, the dead cat bounce.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Minnesota. Boy, this one moves right Saturday another
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: get another Saturday game was moving on Sunday night open
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: at four and a half, moved to three and a
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: half by the time we were on the show, now
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: at three, Nick Mullins, officially, the starter Vikings defense is
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: legit nasty. So is the Lion's offense when it's healthy
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: and they are healthy. They got everybody now and this
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: one is indoors, you know. I asked Devin to look
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: up some stats. How does this scenario division game favorite
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: of three on the road, home dogs in the division
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: the last five seasons three or higher forty nine percent
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: against the spread Home division dogs overall fifty percent against
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the spread the last decade November or later forty five percent.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: So I've been looking for reasons to bet the Lions.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: The fact that it's at a field goal, now maybe
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: we feel like maybe we pulled the trigger there.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would take it, like if this was two
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: and a half our contest, I'd be really happy, but
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: I know it's gonna be three and a half because
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: they're never nice to us in that way.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a Saturday game, so we can't even bet
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: better in the contest, but as a better Sunday in
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Minnesota game. Is it Saturday? Is it Sunday? Hold on?
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, so yeah, I don't know.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Good.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting number where it's like what Chad said
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: is true. People were back in the blankings. They're saying themselves,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: this defense is still underrated, and you know, if they
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: would have beat Sincy, this would probably be a little lower.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: And it's like, I don't know, I feel like this
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: is as low as it could possibly get, right, Like
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: if they move this to two and a half, they
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: were going to get flooded, yeah with Detroit money. So
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: can't see it again lower, only can see it getting
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: back higher. We already know the professionals you're at. This
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: was four and a half, they've hit it four and
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: a half, four, three and a half and now they're
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: down to three on Minnesota, So I think Chad's right.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Like to me, the line movement shifted towards the Lions.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: If we could get them to and a half in contest,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: I'd be happy to take that.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I'd like Matt Mitchell to do some rips for the
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: end of the year of Simon just saying I think
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Chad's right. Good luck, yeah, good luck with that. Washington
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: at the New York Jets. The Jets are three point favorites.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Can we just skip this one?
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean we're supposed to take the Jets here,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: but Chad's right, we can keep it moving because it's
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: like we don't know who the quarterback is. But I'll
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: grab the Jets. I'll take the minus three of them
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: at home. You know, it feels like the secret is
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: out on that Washington offense and teams are kind of
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: figured out how to play. How I mean last week
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: they took him out to quote unquote protect him. And
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: I think it was was it Brisset that came in.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: I think it was Jacob. He had he had more
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: pass in your hearts, yeah than how did and I
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: think ten minutes of playing and how did in the
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: whole entire game. So just dysfunction. We've seen it now
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: multiple weeks. Ron Rivert is a dinosaur. He's not keeping
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: up with the league. You know. The Jets, the fear
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: is they're just full on quin right because now they
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: are at a playoff contention and Rogers probably isn't gonna
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: come back, and what's the point at this point, But
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: it's just their defense at home, catching three feels like
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: that's the team I want to back with. Chad's right, like,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: there's no way that ends up in our contest.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Just to buttress your point, to booy your confidence, to
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: bolster whatever decision you make. Teams scoring three points or
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: less in their previous game sixty percent against the spread
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: the next game the last decade, one team fits that
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: criteria this week, New York Jets. Teams getting shut out
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: sample size forty six games since twenty fifteen. The next week,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: seventy percent against the spread. One team fits that criteria,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: New York Jets.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: So there you go.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Maybe it will be in our contest. Green Bay at Carolina,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: Green Bay ugly loss at home, Carolina ugly winner home.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love was actually not terrible against the Bucks. He
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: just played against Baker Mayfield, who is slash was elite.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: The problem with Jordan Love is he was terrible early
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: in the game when the Packers had a chance to
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: get a lead and build on a lead. And I
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: think we did last week with Carolina. Just catch lightning
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: in the bottle in a bottle. So the numbers at five,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: it's been bouncing around open to three, got up to five,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: went to four and a half, back to five. I
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: don't really have a strong feeling.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Here, Simon says, take Carolina Panthers.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Oh no, you didn't, Simons do it?
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: We do what Sion's say. Yeah, yeah, I just won't
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: she grabbed the number now because I think it does
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: go back down to three and a half four. She's
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: just too big, too big of a number. This has
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: moved too much, too much respect to the Screen Bay
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: team and Jordan Love. As good as he played mid season,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: you kind of see his woes his last couple of
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: weeks right in missing these throws, having bad throws here.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: And there's just part of the growing pains of being
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: a starting in the lead.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Think about it. You haven't played this many games in
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: their entire lives, right, And Eventually all these guys are
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: for the first year usually hit a wall because it's
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: a long season. You're taking hits all season. Your body's
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: beat up. Teams are getting the film on you know
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: exactly what you wouldn't do. They know that he wants
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: to pass to this side of the field, he likes
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: using this side of the field, or he looks throw
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: up the middle and they're taking that away. It's just
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Carolina at home too. I told you, child, I'm a
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: sucker to this team at home. They just play so
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: much better at home defensively as well. Every teaser will
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: have Green Bay in it, like everyone's gonna tie to it,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: especially Carolina coming off a win last week. No one
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna this team's gonna win back to back games.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: So I'm sorry people. I promise people too. People are
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: because that the last time we're gonna been the Panther
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: And I was like, I hope so, But this line's
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: too much. This should be three, three and a half,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: it's five, Like this is insane, the amount of movement
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: this number has had. It's just the Panthers aren't as
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: bad as well perceived. Bryce Shung is right, he's bad,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: but their team as a whole. They do have some
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: some players on that defense. Just looking at this number,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: it's just too too highs.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Panthers haven't run a play while leading in the fourth
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: quarter this season. The two wins they have two wins
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: both came on the last play of the game when
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: they were trailing. Here's a stat from Evan that may
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: challenge your strong feelings. It is smart to fade bad
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: teams off a recent win. Teams that are one in
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: four straight up in their last five games coming off
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: a win last twenty years, sample size of north of
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: two hundred games, nearly two hundred and thirty games, thirty
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: six percent against the spread, including to eighth straight up
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: this season, three and seventeen straight up the last two years.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: In Week sixteen, two teams match that criteria, Carolina and Seattle.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: I love Carolina, I love the fate Seattle this week,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: so I don't have to deal with that stat.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: We like them when they work for us.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: We have You're not wrong.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: You know, sometimes you've got to know what you're doing.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: That's the point of this podcast. Leave Land at Houston
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: early Plan Houston and for Us at two and a half.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Opened at one and a half moved quickly to two
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: and a half hasn't budged as far as I know,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: we're still waiting on word for Stroud, which I think
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: is why it hasn't gone to three. I think wise
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: guys are just buying the number at less than a
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: field goal, awaiting the news as a as a matchup.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: You've pointed out the Browns have real issues on the road,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: so I looked this up. Their past five games on
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: the road, they've allowed thirty eight points to Indy, a
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: game they won, twenty four to Seattle, a loss, thirty
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: one to Baltimore, a win, twenty nine to Denver, a
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: loss thirty six to La a loss. They will be
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: without brand Delpit again, who's on injured reserve, their safety,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: their quarterback of the defensive backfield, their leading tackler before
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: he went out. I don't actually think that mattered much
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: against the Bears. I do think if CJ plays, that
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: would matter a lot against Houston. I love this pick,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: and I love that we're getting at two and a
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: half now.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: I was gonna make it. Simon says, but you're so right,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: there's too much unknown about CJ. Like you still here,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: we are Tuesday morning. You still concussion protocol yesterday, so
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: no need to rush this bet. I mean, worst case.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: This is why I put a little bet now just
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: at two and a half, just in case he does
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: come back and all sudden, this balloon's up to three
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: and a half. Four. But just got to keep your
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: alerts on social media. You need to know Adam Schefter
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: whenever he gets cleared. CJ. We love this number, so
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: you know we might early lock in our contest just
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: because we're getting a good number right here on Texans.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: We know Houston. They're just better at home as well.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Brown's defense at home thirteen points per game, that's the
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: best in the NFL. On the road thirty points per game,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: most in the NFL.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: That's crazy, all.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Right, Indye at Atlanta, Ah, This one is heartbreaking from
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: a contest point of view, But kudos to Simon. You
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: nailed this one on Sunday night. You liked Atlanta plus two.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: It totally makes sense. They were off a terrible, ugly loss.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Indy had come off a dominating win on Saturday, just
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: right in the middle of the playoff race. Buying low,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: selling high. You had to bet it. It actually got
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: to two and a half yesterday. That's what I got
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: it at Falcons plus two and a half, I got
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: a couple words. And now we know Taylor Heineke's gonna
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: be playing, and so since since the announcement of him
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: playing in place of Desmond Ritter a quarterback, this line
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: has moved to Atlanta minus one. Here are my biggest
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: worries for this game. The Colts rushing defense has gotten
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: much much better since Grover Stewart came back from his
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: ped suspension. And I'm very worried about this Atlanta offensive
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: line and their health. We know Kaylen McGarry didn't play.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: I'm looking last week. We're looking for good updates on Lyndstrum,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Chris Lynstrum, drewdalomand Jake Matthews. It's a very good offensive line.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Less good if they're not playing. Less less good if
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: they're trying to run the ball against Rover Stewart and
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: an improving Cults rush defense.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and you just said, like the value might shift
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: you to the Colts if this gets up to plus
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: two plus two and a half for the Colts. How
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: does this not end up in our contest? Like? Who
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: the hell is Atlanta And Heinikee. They're getting that many points,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: but you know, I'll take a small mini victory lap
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: where I should it on Ridder for I don't know
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: seven months of the offseason and took a lot of
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: e from Atlanta fans saying, I don't know shit, My
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: insiders are wrong, and it's like Atlanta they're with this
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: guy every day. They saw him practicing every day. If
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: your front offense doesn't believe in your quarterback in the draft,
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: that should be huge red flags your team head into
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: the season and it's all pay it's played out that way.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: He's just not good. Ridder so Heinikey being worth three
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: and a half points is insane, Like, I can't believe
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: it's moved that much off heinike News culture are just
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: a really well coached team, like I think Coward is
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: when they talked about it, it's like these the shift NFL
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: to go with the offensive guys. Yes, is this exact
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: example of this Colts team? Like if they had a
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: DC the defensive corner was their head coach, this team
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: might have three or four wins right as soon as
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: is there a number one quarterback went down, their season
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: would have been over. But they got an offensive guy
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: and he's made the whole system work around Minshew and
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: he's really highlighted Minshew's strengths. Yeah, Chad's right, Like I
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: wanted to be on Atlanta here the number might move
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: too much if it gets up to two and a half,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be on the Colts. Like this will
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: be too much movement for Colts team that they're in
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: every game like this, these two teams, it's like the
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: Spider Man meme. They're the exact same team, like they
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: just they're right there at the same level, right in
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: the middle of the Colts could win their division. Sam
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: goes to Atlanta. It's like they're not that good, but
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: they're in weak divisions and they're still playing for something.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: So we come back Thursday, and this is two and
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: a half. We're gonna be back on the Colts.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Also, I'm super excited to talk about who the Bears
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: are gonna get when they trade Justin Fields to the
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. It could be we take all three of
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: their interi offensive linemen and we take their number one
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: draft pick.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: Don't draft a tight end at the fourth pick overall,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: take the quarterback in Justin fields.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right, Seattle at Tennessee. We talked about it a
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: little bit. Tennessee plus two and a half. Look, I
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: waited to put some notes in for this game until
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: after the game last night. What's interesting is, even after
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the win and Monday night football, this game is still
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: at two and a half. I was leaning Tennessee before.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Now I'm one hundred percent going to have to take
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Tennessee after the Seattle win and the stat I just
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: gave you that we didn't like for Carolina perfectly fits
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: with Seattle. Yeah, teams one and four straight up in
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: their last five games, coming off a win thirty six
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: percent the last twenty years against the spread book it
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: we're taking Tennessee here.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sickening. I'm sorry everybody, but this is like
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be our big balls by the week. It's just,
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: oh goodness, amazing spot to take Tennessee here. They are bad.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Anyone that bet on the last week, you experienced it.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: We had a pick six and we still lost our
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: damn bet against Case Kingdom last week, so they are
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: left for dead. No one's betting this. Put the professionals
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: bat like a pro. Take Tennessee here. This is such
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: a great Uh, don't care if it's Drew Lock, don't
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: care if it's Gino. We love this spot back in
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: this this team and this uh you know Titan's defense
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: that their biggest weakness is the past. That's what the
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: Seahawks want to do. It's scary, like the matchup is
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: definitely scary for Tennessee. But like Chad said, it's such
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: a huge letdown spot, short week travel, all of it
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: is negative for the Seattle team. So I'm not shocked
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: it's not moved. I was hoping it would get up
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: to three. Maybe if you know, does get clear, it
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: gets up to three. But the only place I see
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: this number really going is down. Like it just feels
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: like this is a smash spot for professional betters where
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: it's just like like after the last two weeks, right,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: they had an emotional win against Miami, they came home
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: have an emotional loss against Houston. You gotta bet, you
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: gotta bet them to bounce back here, especially at this number.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: So two and a half give me Tennessee.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Simon. I've got very good news for you is holiday season.
• 30:56
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• 30:59
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• 32:00
  Speaker 1: get fifty percent off. All right, Last week we made
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: a big move with Baker Mayfield Baker Moxie Mayfield, King
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: of Moxie. Now they are one point favorites at home
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville. Huge move overnight on Sunday based on the
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence concussion news because the Bucks weren't plus two
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: and a half if Trevor plays. We have two former
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: number one overall picks. One of them this season has
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: twenty four touchdowns eight picks, completing sixty four percent of
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: his passes seven point one yards pert tenp for a
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: team tied for first place. The other eighteen touchdowns ten picks,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent of his passages are completed for seven
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: point two yards per attempt for a team tied for
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: first place. What do you think of that? Baker Mayfield
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: is playing at a franchise level right now, franchise quarterback level.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Why don't we trust Baker here? And I know we don't.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: We're supposed to fade them, unfortunately, Yeah, we're supposed to do.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: But I don't know what to do with the Trevor
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Lawrence news or It's like, I don't even know if
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: this guy is gonna play. You know, he smacked his
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: head pretty bad there at that game, like he had
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: classic whatever it was. I think they either whipped him
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: down whever it was. We did the thing where he
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: slammed the back of his head, which is again insane.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: There's just not a big ass pad on the back
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: of the helmet. Who cares, But look, yeah, just put
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: a pad back there. It'll never make sense when they
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: don't do it. But yeah, we want to fade the
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: Bucks here, like this is peak value, Like this number
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: is way too low. They should be a bigger dog.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: It was right at two and a half three, that's
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: where I wanted to take them, But now it's moved
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: so much. It's like the value is definitely on Trevor
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Lawrence and this Jaguars team now if it is Trevor
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: Lawrence's quarterback, so exciting times for the Buccaneers. They're just
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: this is a different level. Like the Jaguars got crazy
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: unlucky against the Ravens team. We expect them to bounce back.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: And Baker's coming off the best game of his entire career,
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: like Evan told us, he's the only guy other than
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: Rogers ever to have a perfect QB rating in Lambeau.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Like the guy threw for three hundred yards was a
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: three or four touchdowns. It's crazy. You just expect a
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: let down game here, especially a Jaguars team that just
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: got embarrassed. I mean I'm looking at the bet splits
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: right now. It's actually skewed a little bit towards the Jaguars,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: so like at least the public is still believing the
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Shaguars team. I think that's the right move here where
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: it's like I wanted to be on Tampa. The numbers
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: moved too much. No bets for me yet, But once
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: I know Forever is gonna be back, I'll be in
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: on the Jaguars.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: I don't imagine this getting into our contest. No, No,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna have a lot of other
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: games that feel a lot better to us in the contest.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: One game that I think is peaking with a lot
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: of people's interest. Dallas as a one and a half
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: point underdog against Miami. Talked about it Sunday night. It
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: was at two. You betted it too, it moved to
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: one and a half. Miami hasn't beaten a good team. No,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Dallas gets sacked by good teams. Dak lost the MVP
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. One of these teams has to prove it.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: I do think Tyreek Hill's status is a big deal.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: He is supposed to play, he is likely to play.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: I know you like Dallas here, I feel like I
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: like Miami.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: It's fair. It's like this one's really tough to make
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: an opinion on. I just I like Dallas in the
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: sense that they just got blown out and embarrassed, so
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a week of hell for them. Or
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: on the flip side, Miami, I don't think they give
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: up a single point right is now you said they
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: don't give up a single point to the Jets, Like
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: that's the vibes are all there. You got an incredible
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: team right now. Like I get Miami's feeling good. Dallas
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: has that doubt that we're not good enough. They're gonna
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: hear it all week. You know, you guys haven't beat anybody.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: You've struggled against good teams an awful on the road
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: this season. May do they need this bad? I know
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Miami needs a bad too, But I just I'm looking
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: at the different levels of teams here, it just feels
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: like Dallas is more ahead of them right, Like this
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: is a more complete team at this point, especially if
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Tyreek's out, Like that's the decider there. If Tyreek's in,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: he's going to play.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Tyreek's playing. He knows that we've got to we've got
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: a ticket. We need him to we He knows we
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: got a ticket. He could probably this one more game
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: and we'd be fine because he's so far ahead.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: But to be close though, Uh great, No, it's a
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: hard one. It's a hard one. I want to I'll
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: be honest. I want to take Dallas. I've taken a
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: little bit on Dallas just because I thought the number
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: was too high. It has come down. You know, I
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: talk all the time. Two is a key number than me.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: So if I touched Dallas a one and a half, No,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: I thought two was the poor number to get. I
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: did get it. Don't really like I'm with Chat on
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: this one. I don't really know what to do with it.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: Where he likes Miami, I like Dallas. We're both split
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: on it. It's just this is such a Miami game
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: to lose like that once again, they've sucked all their
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: fans back in and they just fall apart in these
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: kind of games. So definitely a tricky game that's going
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: to decide a narrative for both these teams head into
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: the playoffs.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe we'll hear more about it from sharp calls. Maybe
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: we'll have a firmer decision on Thursday. Here's the stat
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: from Evan to support me. Teams that are really good
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: with a winning percentage of seventy percent or more in
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: December or later listed as dogs forty against the spread
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: in the regular season. Ev if you could tell me
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: in the chat what the horizon is on that that's
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a sample of about one hundred and twenty five games,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: so that Dallas fits that and one other team, and
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about this game because I know
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: you and I completely disagree on this game. Well, another
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: team fits this criteria and we're gonna get to that one.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit of foreshadowing, folks. Arizona at Chicago,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Chicago's four and a half point favorite. I have nothing
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: to say about this game other than after Sunday, the
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears text chain has officially decided that it's time
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: to move on from Justin Fields. We're gonna trade them.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: We're gonna trade them. We've given the stamp of approval.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Time to get to Caleb Williams. I was there. I
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: was totally there, and then one of the guys in
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: the chain, my buddy Matt. We had a long, hour
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: long conversation on Sunday a couple of weeks ago before
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: the Bears beat the Lions. His wife intervened, She's like,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: we got to get out of here. I cannot listen
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: to you talk about the Bears and Justin Fields anymore today.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: And we were all in, but I'm back to reality,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: cayleb Williams. Get to the Bears. Let's start over with
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: the contract, get a haul of picks, build some talent,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: free up our cap space. This game I want to pass.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you gotta get rid of get rid of fields,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: get rid of the head coaches, start over.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Start over. You can't keep the head coach, and you
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: can't get rid of the head coach and keep fields,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: then you're you're paying, You're overpaying for a quarterback and
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: you're starting from scratch again.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I don't know if you saw the stat
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: about them this season, but it's pretty crazy where you
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: guys have had three losses where you're ten in the
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter, and apparently you guys are basically like the
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: only team to have that happen to you, like Cape
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: having these losses where you would be what eight and
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: six at this point, it be something where you guys
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: would be like a game back of the lines if
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: you just hadn't blown those games. So yeah, it's too
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: big of a number here, like Arizona. This is the play.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: You have to take Arizona here, the numbers should be three.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: You're getting an extra point just because Arizona has been
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: bad these this last month. I mean, they have been
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: very bad, and you know, I don't know if it's
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: just because they're so young and they have no talent,
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: but this Bears team is just as young and they
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: are struggling with talent, especially in the secondary. Like what
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: if Black a throw for it? You, I have three
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty yards on this secondary after you threw
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: three picks. So this is this is a team that's
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: been number one since Week five in turnovers and interceptions
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: but has nothing to show for it. They have, say,
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: they have some crazy stat where they had nine picks
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: in these last couple of weeks. They have thirteen total
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: points off those interceptions. Like this is just a team
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: that they just struggle. They struggle to be consistent in
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: so many ways. So Arizona is terrible. I agree with
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: everything people have pushed back on this one, but Snummer's
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: too high. Plus four is way too high. They should
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: be plus three. So I'll take the free point of
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: value and I'll take Arizona here the.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Statue were referring to that Evan gave us on Sunday.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: The Bears are now three and three straight up since
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: the start of last season when eating by ten plus
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: points entering the fourth quarter. The rest of the NFL
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: in that window one ninety two, sixteen and one ninety
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: three percent. So the Bears are five hundred, the rest
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: of the NFL ninety three percent. I mean, I guess
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: you know, we'll talk about it. Maybe I could be
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: persuaded this is one of the five, if only because
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: it would be a year my guy pick like I
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: am blinded by fear and failure for the Bears.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: Then airs when I get blown up by twenty points
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: last week. Though you got that other stat you can
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: you can hold on too.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: They didn't they? I think they only lost by twelve?
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Oh are you sure I covered? No, I've covered the
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: They they played the forty nine ers and the Niners
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: won twenty eight to twelve. Didn't They are twenty eight sixteen.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: It was on score.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: They got like forty five points or something last week.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: I'll pull it up for you.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Pull it out. New England at Denver Denver plus six
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, five.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Forty sixteen.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so it doesn't damn we didn't get our twenty.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Didn't get our twenty. See the math I can do
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: so quickly. New England and Denver plus six and a half.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: I kept thinking, I said this on Sunday. I wanted
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: to back New England here. The defense is improving. Bailey
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: is not mac Jones. But you made a really good point.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: You made a really good point that I said, the
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Bronco has been winning all their games on turnovers and
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: that's why we faded them this past week.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: And then you made the point, yeah, but New England
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: is the one that that is always turning the ball over.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: And then Evan did give us teams to lose by
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: twenty points or more the previous week facing a team
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: we didn't fifty nine percent against the spread since twenty twenty.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: That would be the Broncos against the Chiefs, I mean
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: against the Patriots.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I said it. I thought at five and
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: a half, the value was there on Denver. I was like,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: this number is only going to go up. Yere at
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: sixteen a halfs it crossed the key number. You know,
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: still like Denver, but obviously we don't like it as much.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: Like this is a this is a big move been
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: moving up to this point. I mean, the total is
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: down to thirty four, which is like makes perfect sense,
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: right for these two teams that you know, as much
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: trust I have in rusting this offense, they are also
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: been They've been in consistent as well this year, this
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: Denver team, So they benefit a lot from short fields
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: and that's what's really helped this offense. So yeah, my
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: gut instinct is like, we want to take New England here,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: but we know the deal right Denver mile high at home.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: It's a real thing, especially this late in the season.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: You know, Chad just gave us the stat this is
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: the Denver team that got blown out last week. Now
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: they're six and a half point favorite, so the books
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: know they're gonna need day in New England here. So
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: I might come around on New England at this point.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: I just can't get there yet. I still like Denver,
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: but I don't like them at that number. It's moved
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: too much for me to take.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, it's sort of. It's in a no
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: man's land right now for us. We can't back either one.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: It's too bad we couldn't take Denver I five half
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: on Sunday Night, Simon, I want you to concentrate very
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: hard right now, think very hard on this next question.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: It will determine both of our futures. Can you name
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number Two,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: pro and college football games. I'm actually opening game Time
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: right now from my house here in Connecticut and lo
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: and behold, what do I see? Yukon men's basketball. I
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: can get in for less than one hundred bucks to
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: see the national champions playing at an elite level. I
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: said this on the show last week. I bought tickets
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: for Yukon coming up in January on game Time last week.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: It was an amazing experience. No matter where you live,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: download the game Time app, get out and has some
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: fun this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app. In
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: it reco favorites for twenty dollars off less minute tickets
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: lows price guaranteed. All right, Las Vegas at Kansas City.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is a ten point favorite. I have zero
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: read on this other than in the last twenty years
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Home division favorites of over a touchdown forty seven percent.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: Mahomes six four and one against the spread in this spot.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I do think this Kansas City team is struggling. I
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: do think it's getting harder and harder for them to score.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: I do think there is frustration. I do think that
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is probably losing a little bit faith in
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: his receiving core. So, I mean, I guess we got
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: to lean Las Vegas here, but I don't have like
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: contest confidence in this now.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: The thing that's scaring me is, what the hell is this?
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: Lying like I got this at seven it's ten. That's
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: glare and the books. You're telling us that I'm over
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: valuing this Raiders team way too much. I mean, it's brutal,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: like they just came off a sixty point game. Now
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: they're a ten point dog. Yeah, I want to take Vegas,
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: but it's stinks. This line stinks. Don't know what to
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: do with it. I'll probably end up on the Raiders,
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: but no chance is one of our five because I
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: just I'm so confused by this number. I don't know
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: why it's so high. You need to talk to a
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: couple of bookmakers or a couple of the professionals. I
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: just don't don't get this number at all. I think
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: if it was seven and a half eight, they would
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: have got plenty of Raiders' money. And maybe they made
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: it this hot just to protect against the teasers, right,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: because now you can't do your seven point teaser. It
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: gets you to three, which is we sell. The time
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: you push on a teaser, you lose that teaser bet.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: So maybe that's why they've hung the ten to protect that.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: But interesting number. Just the Chiefs. I didn't think they'd
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: ever get at this big of a number unless they're
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: playing against you know, the Panthers or something. But yeah,
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: last week right before kickoff and moved all up to
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: ten against the Patriot and this week they open up
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: again minus ten at home. Interesting interesting numbers, So no
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: read on this one for me yet.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Chad home favorites home division favorites of ten or higher.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: So I just gave you seven and a half or
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: higher forty five percent against the spread the past twenty years.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: My home seven or higher twenty one, twenty six, and two,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: and he's fourteen and twenty one as a favorite of
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: seven or more since twenty and since twenty twenty and
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: As a double digit favorite, Evan. I could be wrong,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: but isn't he like eleven and thirteen against the spread
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: as a double digit favorite? So not great, but not
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: not that much to fade there.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: So a lot of the stats that I just gave
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: are also applicable to the Giants at Philly. This is
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: a Monday night football game. I don't really know what
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: to do with this one. It's like it's a similar
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: situation as the chiefs of the Raiders say, once dominant
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: team getting the benefit of the doubt from bookmakers and
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: likely the public against a team with a rookie quarterback
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: that has shown flashes. But it's probably nothing more than
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: a really nice story, right, So eleven and a half
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: is a lot of freaking points though, for the Eagles
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: in a division matchup.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: Like my you know, back in the day, people were
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: like breaking their arms to get out of the draft.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: That's what Tim of DeVito should have done. He should
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: have won that game before the Saints. Should have had
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: his buddy over. Just step on his arm and break
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: that bad boy in half, and then you just ride off.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: I'll go open U about Pizzeria North Jersey, the Vito's
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: giant spot, whatever you're gonna call it in You're gonna
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: live the good life. But he wanted to stay healthy.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: He is competitive, he wants to keep playing. And the
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: story's gonna start unralling here, right chat. It's like the
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: guy can only hit on sixteen so many times I
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: get twenty one. It's like the most insane run of
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: luck with this kid. De Vitoe's gone. And watch his
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: college tape. It is truly incredible, how good he is
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: compared to what he was in college. Oh yeah, it's bizarre.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I want to take the giants like the Eagles.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: We might take all that COVID or the flu and
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: they're traveling on a short week. Oh I guess not,
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: because this is a Monday game. But that's just it's
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: crazy again the books, they know what they're doing, making
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: it so big. I mean, maybe it is because it's Christmas.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: Maybe we're getting the same things here as a Thanksgiving
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: where they just bump up these favorites because they know
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: all the teasers. All these people are just gonna do
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: the three team teasers because it's three games on a day.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: It's like, this is what the public likes to do.
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: But once again, it's like I had this eight and
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: a half, it's ten and a half. Like that's a
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: lot of points of value for the Giants right now.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: So eleven and a half.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: It's eleven and a half.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Dude, that's what I'm saying. Every trend, every scenario it
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: says take the freak Giants. Yeah, I know, I hate it,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: and I actually feel more comfortable about doing it here
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: than I do with the Raiders.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: Especially the Eagles have owned the Giants. I think we
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: beat them thirty seven to seven last year in the playoffs,
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: and we dominated them during the regular season as well.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: You know, we just match up really well against the Giants.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: But see, I just said, that's just so many points.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: So once again, no chances will be one of our five.
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: I'm just not that confident in betting and Davido on
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: the road in this spot. We saw it last week
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: against the Saints, where it's like they were sucking us in.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: They were like, here, here's six points against Derek Carr
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: thick this. You want this, don't you. I'm not gonna
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: let it happen again this week, Like, I'm not gonna
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: let this be one of our five. So maybe we'll
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: take the Giants at eleven and a half ten and
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: a half, but this won't be one of our five.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: The next one is not going to be one of
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: our five either, because you and I are diametrically opposed
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: on this. Baltimore at San Francisco, SIP. This goes a
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites Monday Night Football Executive Decision,
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: San Francisco.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Your Honors Texture executive decision. Yeah, I'm saying I know
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: you hate it. It's as chalky as it gets. But
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: this team is dominant. I don't think we are fully
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: recognizing how dominant this team is, how well coached this
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: team is. We're blinded by a three game losing streak
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the season when they were without
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: two of their most important weapons, Trent Williams at left
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: tackle and Deebo Samuel, who does everything on the field.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: And I'm telling you right now, this team when they
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: are healthy and everybody is playing, which is what they
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: are now, and they haven't been like that for Kyle
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: Shanahan in seven years of coaching. They're undefeated this year,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: winning by an average of double digits, dominating teams, dominating
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: good teams, doesn't matter who they are playing. They are
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: not the Cowboys, they are not the Eagles, they are
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: not the Bills. They are not even the Ravens, who
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: have struggled against bad teams and good teams when healthy.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: This is a team that is so good we are
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: going to talk about it in historic proportions when the
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: season is over and they have won the Super Bowl
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: and Christian McCaffrey has been named the m v P.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: All those reasons I just gave you is why you
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: need to bet the Ravens here. It's just the hype
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: is out of control, Like what are we doing here? Evan?
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe we can put in our chat, but I know
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: he put a stat out about anytime Lamar has been
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: a dog in this kind of position perform as well.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: Me and you, I'll never forget this. We bet on
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs against Lamar. Lamar might have been a four
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: point dog or four and a half point dog and
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: a livid landed on five like we cover by half
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: a point with the Chiefs, and that might have been
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: his first years like a full time starter. So okay, here,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: here we go. Lamar is a dog eleven and two
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: ats Chad like, this is just a spot you take.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: You take Lamar on the spot, especially against a team
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: like this is just so hyped up right now where
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers are really good. Everything Chad has
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: said is so true, where it's like, not only do
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: you have all the talent in the world on the offense,
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: they have the quarterback like Purty is so much better
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: than Jimmy g Ever was in his career. And it's
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: only his second year, or I guess should say his
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: first year is a full time starter. It's incredible, It
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: really is incredible what this kid's doing. You know, it's
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: like Shanahan's dream scenario, Like he has this guy who
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: you know all of his weaknesses, you just don't see
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: it in the league. Like the things he did so
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: bad in college, they somehow fixed it in two years,
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Like him making bad reads, him forcing him bad throws,
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: even his fifty to fifty balls downfield. He's putting in
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: a position where it's like either his receiver is gonna
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: get it like he started to his outside shoulder, or
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: no one's gonna get it. Like it's incredible how well
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: perty's playing. As I hype them up here. This is
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: why you take the Ravens like it's a battle tested team.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: They're a team that I've played in a ton of
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: really close games. I mean I just went through Wai
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: Child was talking the forty nine ers. Chad's right, like,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: other than those three games skid, they basically have dominated
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: and blown out every team they've played, like They've just
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: been dominant from Week one all the way to now
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: Week fifteen. So I get where Chad's coming from. I
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: just think it's too big of a number. You know,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: if this gets the six, I'm gonna have to unload
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: on this Ravens team, which I do not want to do.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: So I'm hoping the pros come in and bet this down.
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: There should be closer to four to four and a half.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I'll take the points. I'll take the five and a half.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Really good teams the past twenty years listed as underdogs
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: late in the season have struggled teams with a seventy
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: plus win percentage in December or later who are listed
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: as dogs one hundred and twenty five games, sample size
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: forty against the spread, two teams.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: Five chance of hitting.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: It, Dallas, Baltimore. You're you're unloading at the five and
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm hoping that the wise guys feel the
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: way you do and they continue to come in on
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: and they come in on the Ravens at five and
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: a half, so I can get the forty nine ers
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: at maybe five.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: I've done nothing, though, I'm just waiting. I'm hoping what
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: you say is true, which is like the public should
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: like the forty nine year They've been the best team
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: all season. They should be the Super Bowl favorites. I mean,
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: I've had them power rate and up, so my number
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: one team now for on you know, three four weeks,
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: like they've just they've been incredible. And this is what
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: we talked about. This is every teaser on that Monday
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: slate on Christmas is going to be tied to this
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: team like so you know, I'm hoping the pros wade
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: and this gets up to six like this, to me,
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: this will just keep going up just because the public
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: will keep hanging this one. So yeah, Chat, I don't
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: think you're gonna get what you want, which is this
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: going down to four to three and a half. I
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: can only really see this being bumped up by game
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: time just because the publics that are coming heavy on this.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: I mean that just the forty nine ers are the
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: most talked about, most beloved team right now in football
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: exact decision.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be hard for us to find
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: five that we both agree on right now that doesn't
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: include the Jets.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: I got Arizona.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I forgot Arizona, got Tennessee, Arizona, Tennessee, probably
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Detroit if we can get it at three, Arolina plus
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: fe I guess.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: You're right, it's gonna be tough to get to the
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: five now. I'm looking at it because we need a
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: lot of lines to set up a certain way in
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: this contest.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: But Houston two and a half, Tennessee two and a half,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: and then like we're talking about Arizona. We're talking about Detroit,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: We're talking about the Jets, the freaking Giants, and then
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: you know, of course want to take the Niners. Of
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: course you're gonna want to take the Niners. At three
• 57:03
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