Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW REPORT: Do Rate Cuts REALLY Drive Bitcoins Price? | EP 1330
Transcript
- 0:00Hey guys, I have a normal show for you, but I thought it would
- 0:04be bad form if we started the show like normal.
- 0:07And just diving straight into the topic.
- 0:08I'm sure you're aware a very tragic event happened yesterday.
- 0:12I'm a loss of words about it, to be honest.
- 0:16It's very shocking and just thoughts and prayers go out to
- 0:20Charlie Kirk and his family. An intense, intense moment.
- 0:23I think it really shows the tumultuous times that we're
- 0:26living in and it's just it's it's absolutely insane to see.
- 0:31So I, I just thought we couldn't start the show like normal.
- 0:34We do have a normal show for you guys.
- 0:37It's just it's crazy times and I just felt I couldn't start the
- 0:41show like normal. So with that being said, I we
- 0:43will talk about it later in the show in the culture because.
- 0:47Obviously it's it's. Crazy times going on right now.
- 0:50With that being said, I, I'm going to pivot to our normal
- 0:53show. You know, we might be a little
- 0:56off today because it's just a lot going on.
- 0:59So with that being said, changing gears, as you guys
- 1:03know, I, I have been getting some Flack recently around the
- 1:06rate cuts. Well, we got a new report and
- 1:08everybody's assuming that rate cuts will be bullish for
- 1:11Bitcoin. But this new report that Binance
- 1:13just dropped shows that it's not that simple.
- 1:17And the timing of what comes next could catch most people
- 1:20offside. And so considering we're
- 1:22entering AQ4 and everyone is certain Bitcoin is about to
- 1:25begin its rally, I do want to dive into this and let's just,
- 1:29you know, see what potentially could happen next week if rate
- 1:33cuts are announced. Of course, I'm here with Sophie.
- 1:37She's been doing great job with us.
- 1:39Anyways, as you guys can see, I'm over here on Binance.
- 1:43They dropped the report. Actually, I'll go up to the.
- 1:45Title Do rate cuts really drive Bitcoin's price?
- 1:48And this is in their insights and analysis research.
- 1:51And you guys know, the, this last couple of days, you guys
- 1:55have been giving me a lot of Flack in the chat and saying
- 1:57that I'm bearish. That's not, that hasn't been the
- 2:00case at all. But I got some data here.
- 2:04I was kind of just giving you my gut feeling kind of what I think
- 2:07is going to happen. Now I kind of have some data to
- 2:10back up my perspective here a little more.
- 2:13I was just saying, hey, considering we are seeing a lot
- 2:17of economic uncertainty, I'm not sure that what people are
- 2:21expecting to happen in the Bitcoin price is going to happen
- 2:24right away. I've, I've been seeing a lot of
- 2:26people say, hey, when rate cuts happen, it's going to be super
- 2:28bullish, Bitcoin's going to pump.
- 2:30And as much as I do believe that is the case and it will follow
- 2:34in that manner, I don't necessarily think that right
- 2:38when they're announced, we're going to see some crazy
- 2:40parabolic, you know, run here, Omega candle, what have you.
- 2:44And so here's the summary and I'll break down the data for you
- 2:47guys in a minute and it goes. Historical analysis of the 2019
- 2:50and 2024 Fed rate cut cycles show no consistent positive
- 2:53price impact on Bitcoin, which has previously followed a quote
- 2:58sell the news pattern or shown no clear trend.
- 3:01So diving down the first part, they're really just kind of
- 3:04doing a macro overview of markets and of course of the
- 3:08crypto markets or Bitcoin markets.
- 3:10This is Binance, so they are saying it crypto markets.
- 3:13But I'll just jump straight to the part that is really, I think
- 3:17backing up my thesis. And again, it's not that I'm
- 3:20bearish, it's just I, I think we might have the order of
- 3:23operations. Off a little bit here so.
- 3:26The portion titled Macro outlook Do Fed rate cuts really drive
- 3:29Bitcoin's price? That's where we get the meat of
- 3:32the signal here. So with market expectations
- 3:35running high for the US to enter a new interest rate cut cycle
- 3:38this month, it is an opportune time to delve into the potential
- 3:41impact on the crypto, or rather Bitcoin market.
- 3:44While it is acknowledged that a decrease in the risk free rate
- 3:48is logically beneficial for the valuation of any risk asset from
- 3:51a discounted cash flow perspective, empirical evidence
- 3:54and testing indicate that a Fed rate cut actions are not by
- 3:58themselves a reliable standalone indicator for bitcoins price
- 4:02movements. And this is what I've been
- 4:04trying to tell you guys the last couple of days.
- 4:06I know the chat's been calling me bearish.
- 4:08You guys are saying, oh, Opti's a bear now what?
- 4:11Like what is going on? Did Nico get in his ear?
- 4:15No, I just think we might have these orders of operation wrong.
- 4:19Like I said earlier. So breaking this down, they
- 4:22reviewed 2 rate cut moments. There's actually been three rate
- 4:25cut moments, rate cut cycles in bitcoins history since 2014, but
- 4:30one of them was in 2020. So they kind of put that one
- 4:34aside because it was an emergency rate cut.
- 4:36It was, you know, just a strange time and it it was probably not
- 4:43really in the same pattern as everything else.
- 4:45And so therefore, again, they focus on the 2019 and 2024 rate
- 4:49cut. And again they have figures here
- 4:52saying Bitcoin did not show consistent pattern before and
- 4:54after the start of the last two planned rate cut cycles.
- 4:57So as the data showing us is essentially there is no positive
- 5:02correlation in the sense that right when they cut rates,
- 5:04Bitcoin price is going to go up. So diving into this, there's two
- 5:09scenarios that they're pointing out or rather out of the two
- 5:12data points, we know of two scenarios that are going to
- 5:15happen or potentially can happen.
- 5:17And it's a 2019 preventive cut cycle, which basically in this
- 5:21context, we don't really care about the S&P 500 per SE, but we
- 5:25will focus on just the Bitcoin impact.
- 5:28And so the cycle was not triggered by an economic
- 5:31recession, but was quote an insurance cut in the response to
- 5:34trade tensions and concerns about slowing economic growth.
- 5:37And in Bitcoin terms, the market exhibited a classic buy the
- 5:40rumor sell the news pattern, which I don't know if that's
- 5:43necessarily what I've been thinking of going to happen next
- 5:46week if we do get a rate cuts, But the the price action is it's
- 5:50kind of what I was thinking. So in the months leading up to
- 5:52the rate cut, Bitcoin's price surge from approximately 4000 to
- 5:5613,000. However, once the cuts were
- 5:58actually implemented, the price decline, this is kind of what I
- 6:02was saying, that we're probably seeing some bullish indicators
- 6:05right now in gold price. And of course the Bitcoin price
- 6:09is starting to to retrace a bit here.
- 6:12That might just build up until we get rate cuts and then we see
- 6:16some kind of dip. Now I know you guys are calling
- 6:18me a bear because I said maybe under 100.
- 6:20I don't know. All I'm saying is we might see a
- 6:22dip. Now.
- 6:23The 2024 soft landing cut cycle was a little different than the
- 6:272019 cycle and we did see that following the rate cut cycle,
- 6:32the price did pump, but their dad is saying it's not
- 6:36necessarily just because of the rate cut.
- 6:39So again, the background. The cycle began amid easing
- 6:42inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth, which
- 6:46depending on the data, you could argue is where we are right now,
- 6:49which was well anticipated by the market.
- 6:51It's macroeconomic context is more analogous to the current
- 6:55environment. Again, what we're kind of seeing
- 6:57right now, where a natural cooling of the economy guides
- 6:59policy adjustments rather than a crisis response.
- 7:02And this is where it gets a little more tricky.
- 7:04This is why I said it's not as simple as, oh, rate cuts happen,
- 7:07Bitcoin prices going to RIP. So the Bitcoin performance was
- 7:11prior to the first rate cut in September, Bitcoin did not
- 7:14exhibit a clear trend, primarily oscillating between 50,000 and
- 7:1770,000. The significant price increase
- 7:20following the cut coincided closely with the shifts in the
- 7:23US election landscape, making it difficult to solely attribute
- 7:26the price movement to the rate cut itself.
- 7:29Which is kind of what I was trying to say.
- 7:30Just because we get rate cuts next week, the 17th of
- 7:35September, doesn't necessarily mean the Bitcoin price is going
- 7:37to RIP. Yes, people might feel a little
- 7:40more comfortable with their investments and now they know
- 7:42where to put their capital. And and you know, historically
- 7:46the thesis is essentially if we do get rate cuts, it does
- 7:50essentially mean more liquidity in the system.
- 7:53Rate cuts do increase liquidity because it basically encourages
- 7:57credit creation and it will push capital into higher velocity
- 8:01asset or more risky assets, of course, like Bitcoin.
- 8:05And it usually does proceed a boom in equities and hard
- 8:08assets. So it's not just that a rate cut
- 8:11happens and then prices going to go up just because the rate cuts
- 8:16were announced, though I know a lot of people are sitting on the
- 8:18sidelines and kind of waiting for what's going to happen and
- 8:22maybe they'll see Bitcoin as a better investment here.
- 8:26So just going down here a little more, you can see here's a
- 8:29comparison of policy rate changes in Bitcoin price
- 8:32changes. Again, there's really no clear
- 8:35connection here. And I think they're actually
- 8:37saying there's a negative correlation here.
- 8:39So policy force may exceed expectations.
- 8:42But for investors betting on falling interest rates, a
- 8:44positive historical signal is that once the Federal Reserve
- 8:47begins a policy cycle, the actual magnitude of its actions
- 8:51often exceed the market's initial expectations.
- 8:54So I think, you know, that's kind of what we're we're talking
- 8:57about here. Therefore, once the Fed
- 8:58initiates a new policy cycle, investors should remain open
- 9:02minded about its ultimate trajectory, not be confined by
- 9:05initial forecast. So this is kind of what I've
- 9:07been trying to say to you guys on the show, that yes, rate cuts
- 9:12are bullish for a Bitcoin or rather more risky asset
- 9:17investment strategy. Again, if there's no interest
- 9:21into these treasuries and people don't want to invest in, then
- 9:24they're going to find somewhere else to store their wealth.
- 9:26But it's not as clear cut as hey, oh, rate cuts are going to
- 9:29happen. Bitcoins going to pump.
- 9:31It's more so the market might react negatively to this.
- 9:34Maybe it's already priced in a sell the news, you know, sell,
- 9:38buy the rumor, sell the news type scenario and we might see
- 9:42kind of some market correction and then eventually the capital
- 9:47will come in. Though I did find a very
- 9:49interesting tweet here. This is from the Bitwise Invest
- 9:55CIO. Yeah, wait, yes, I'm sorry, CEO.
- 9:58And you can see here where it's quoting Eric Balkunis and it
- 10:01goes money market, mutual fund assets are at a record $7.3
- 10:05trillion and Hunter Horsley goes win rates come down 7.3 trillion
- 10:11is going to be looking for a new asset to help store value.
- 10:14And I think this is probably the signal going on as I've been
- 10:17covering for you guys on the show.
- 10:19We're seeing people aren't interested in storing their
- 10:22wealth in Treasuries. Treasuries are no longer the
- 10:26store of value medium that it used to be.
- 10:29We're seeing central banks go into gold.
- 10:31We're seeing investors not like treasuries.
- 10:34We're seeing them go into gold themselves.
- 10:37And if we do see the scenario where they do cut interest rates
- 10:41rapidly and in a cycle where they're just basically, you
- 10:46know, destroying the interest on these treasuries, it doesn't
- 10:49make sense to invest in like a 30 year treasury and you're only
- 10:52going to get less than 4% returns on this.
- 10:54We know inflation, if you're looking at the real numbers, is
- 10:57already close to that. If you're looking at what a lot
- 11:00of us believe to be the case, it's probably higher than that.
- 11:03So there's no return in long term treasuries, which makes
- 11:07that investment thesis really shaky.
- 11:09And So what we're seeing again is if we do do get this interest
- 11:13rate cut next week, doesn't necessarily mean the Bitcoin
- 11:16price is going to RIP. But what it does mean is it does
- 11:20eventually lead to more liquidity, which is exactly what
- 11:24Lynn Alden's been saying. Bitcoin is a global liquidity
- 11:27barometer essentially with more liquidity in the system with the
- 11:31the amount of credit creation basically going to get ramped up
- 11:36in next week. If this does happen, there will
- 11:38be more liquidity in the system. It's got to find a new home.
- 11:41We believe it will be Bitcoin eventually.
- 11:44I think this is a bullish case for Bitcoin towards the end of
- 11:47this year. But my whole caveat was this
- 11:50idea that I, I just don't think if we get those announcements on
- 11:55the 17th, we are going to see a huge Omega candle.
- 11:59I know everyone's thinking parabolic run in bitcoins
- 12:01coming. I also believe Q4 will be
- 12:04bullish for Bitcoin, but I don't think that correlation is 1 to
- 12:081. Essentially, we get rate cuts,
- 12:10Bitcoin price is going to pump. That's what everyone's saying.
- 12:13And maybe as like a Pareto DIS distribution here, Pareto
- 12:17principle, because everyone's saying that maybe I'm taking the
- 12:20contrarian view that the prices of Bitcoin and some markets are
- 12:24going to go down. Again, long term, I think this
- 12:27is extremely bullish for Bitcoin, but I just wanted to
- 12:30maybe curb expectations for what's to come next week.
- 12:34Also, of course, you know, confirm my bias here and give
- 12:36you guys more data that I'm not being bearish here.
- 12:40It's this is just kind of my my read of what's going on right
- 12:44now in the markets. So I could be completely wrong.
- 12:46We could see a RIP. I'm not sure.
- 12:48I'm just saying, you know, maybe we need to curb our enthusiasm
- 12:52here. I know as a bitcoiners, we do
- 12:54get very excited and we're we're overly bullish on news and
- 12:58what's going on in the world. And then we are like, why isn't
- 13:00the Bitcoin price pumping? I'm just saying the markets
- 13:04might not react exactly how you think.
- 13:06Long term, this is bullish. In the short term, we don't know
- 13:09what's going to happen. So I got some data for you guys.
- 13:13You can call me a bear all you want in the chat, but I'm
- 13:16backing up my my thesis with the data now.
- 13:19So hey, I could be wrong. I'm not exactly sure what's
- 13:22going to happen. I don't think anyone's sure
- 13:24what's going to happen, which is why we're seeing people get the
- 13:28capital and, and kind of sit on the sidelines right now because
- 13:31there is so much uncertainty in the world right now in, in
- 13:34economic terms and of course in, in societal terms.
- 13:37Like we are in a tumultuous time right now and no one really
- 13:40knows what's happening. But from our perspective, we
- 13:43still think Bitcoin's the best long term investment or store
- 13:46value. It's a place to be sitting in
- 13:48right now. If you are seeing what's going
- 13:51on in the world and you, you're just like, this is this is, I
- 13:54don't know, I don't know what to believe.
- 13:55You were trying to opt out. This is why we always say, say
- 13:57saving Bitcoin, store it correctly and you know, just
- 14:01keep doing that long term, you will be set up in a good
- 14:04position. So anyways, enough ranting for
- 14:06me Sophie. I know you're not the macro
- 14:08person. Was this me speaking Chinese or
- 14:11or does this start to make a little sense?
- 14:13No, your speculation makes total sense.
- 14:16I mean, I think that we have famously fallen for the sell the
- 14:22news situation time and time again and I feel like this might
- 14:29not be any different. The only thing that is different
- 14:32though from all of the patterns that you mentioned is that
- 14:35Bitcoin does have a presence in the S&P 500 now.
- 14:40Strategy is part of the S&P 500. Bitcoin treasury companies, are
- 14:44they? Didn't get at it yet they
- 14:45didn't. They didn't get at it.
- 14:46No. Well, will they get at it?
- 14:48By we don't know. Maybe by the end of the year.
- 14:51Are there hedge fund companies that are?
- 14:54Yeah, there. There's Bitcoin.
- 14:55Yes, yes, they're on NASDAQ, just didn't get out of the S&P
- 14:58500. Whatever, Bitcoin is part of
- 15:02Wall Street right now, and that is something that we have never
- 15:06seen in the cycles previous. And so, you know, what makes
- 15:11this rate cut different is essentially that.
- 15:15So if people are placing their capital in Wall Street and
- 15:20that's what usually tends to go up, I, I'm not so sure that it's
- 15:26much of A sell the news event, because if these people decide
- 15:31to invest in these companies, then the hedge funds are going
- 15:34to be forced to buy more Bitcoin.
- 15:36And it, it, it might be exactly what you say.
- 15:38It might not, you know, pump that same exact day.
- 15:41Maybe there might be like a mini pump and then a dump.
- 15:45But eventually throughout Q4, we are definitely going to see the
- 15:51material like that materialize. I I totally agree and there was
- 15:55a good question in the chat here Steve math math desk and and
- 16:02there's other people in the chat that are saying the same thing.
- 16:04The bigger question is Bitcoin never really looked at fed rates
- 16:06per SE before. Why is this why is that starting
- 16:09now? I like.
- 16:12We're in the system. Yeah, kind of that's kind of
- 16:14where I was going. I totally agree.
- 16:17You know, as, as a bitcoiner, we, we do have this kind of
- 16:21perspective that we don't believe that a small group of
- 16:25people should be able to control the interest rate for the
- 16:27economy. We, we don't believe in the
- 16:29centralized control of the economy.
- 16:32That's why we're bitcoiners in the 1st place.
- 16:33We have, you know, outsourced our monetary policy to an
- 16:39algorithm and we know what's going to happen.
- 16:41But I think what has changed here, and this is part of the
- 16:45bigger conversation of what Sophie was saying, is that Wall
- 16:48Street is now finally dipping their toes in Bitcoin.
- 16:51And so the investors now, the institutional investors that are
- 16:54coming into Bitcoin, they do look at these indicators as
- 16:59reasons to deploy capital or not to deploy capital.
- 17:02And if they're seeing all of this data and they're waiting
- 17:05for rate cuts, then they're basically part making their
- 17:08wealth on the sideline and waiting until there's certainty
- 17:10in the markets and then they will start deploying their next
- 17:13move. And so if we are seeing this
- 17:15much uncertainty on the Tradfi level, then that essentially
- 17:18means that the the big wealth, the people with deep pockets,
- 17:21the people that do wait for these Fed rate cuts
- 17:24announcements, they're kind of just sitting on their hands
- 17:27right now and just waiting to see what's going to play out
- 17:31before they make their next move.
- 17:33And so depending on what they see from the Fed rate cuts,
- 17:36that's what's going to be their next.
- 17:38If they, you know, keep, keep the interest rates the same,
- 17:41then maybe they either go go along with what they've been
- 17:45doing and they're not changing the course.
- 17:47If they do see the rates cut, then they have to adjust their
- 17:52strategy. And so we are seeing an influx
- 17:55of capital coming from Wall Street now and again, as this
- 17:58new investor, quote UN quote, comes into the space, they are
- 18:02following these macroeconomic indicators of what they're going
- 18:06to do. So I think that's why a lot of
- 18:09us Bitcoiners now are looking to what the Fed does, what these
- 18:13nation state policies are doing is because they are here now,
- 18:17they're they're on our doorstep. You know, Bitcoin is
- 18:19infiltrating Wall Street now. And all these things do play
- 18:23together. Bitcoin does have a role in the
- 18:25macro landscape and we're seeing this play out in real time.
- 18:29Yes, it's still the beginning of this, but people aren't fully
- 18:33convinced of Bitcoin like we are and they need more market
- 18:36signals before they either quote UN quote, take the risky
- 18:40investment and start to go into Bitcoin if they can play it safe
- 18:43and not change their course and that's probably what they're
- 18:46going to do. So that would be my take on why
- 18:49quote UN quote, we care about this now is because we are
- 18:52getting bigger. We're seeing that a lot of
- 18:54capital is taking these indicators as you know, gospel
- 18:58and that's when they're going to make their moves.
- 19:00And so if we do see the rate cuts, then we know, hey, more
- 19:03liquidity in the system and then people will be taking a little
- 19:06more riskier bets because the safe haven assets just aren't
- 19:10giving them the returns they need to continue to thrive.
- 19:13So that would be my take. You know, maybe it's not a
- 19:16perfect answer for you guys. You're like, why do we care
- 19:18about the Fiat system? And it's it's my view is just,
- 19:22hey, we are a part of the macro landscape right now.
- 19:25We are not big enough yet to kind of do our own thing and not
- 19:29care about what's going. We're basically like, what's
- 19:32those little fishes that are under the whales?
- 19:34You know, they like eat, they eat the the germ.
- 19:38Yeah, they're eating, you know, the germs under the bellies and
- 19:41stuff. It's like, that's how you can
- 19:42imagine what Bitcoin is right now.
- 19:45We are tiny in comparison to global markets.
- 19:48And so if they, you know, have a hiccup like Bitcoin pukes, if
- 19:51they sneeze, you know, Bitcoin is completely out cold with the
- 19:56flu. So that's probably why there's
- 19:58more of this interconnection going on.
- 19:59I mean, to be fair, I think we've graduated to like maybe a
- 20:04slightly bigger fish. We are being mentioned by the
- 20:09President of the United States and the Secretary of Treasury
- 20:14and, you know, all these important people.
- 20:16And I do think that, you know, we've, we've kind of.
- 20:20Grown a lot as a currency and and we've made our mark on the
- 20:25world. So I wouldn't I wouldn't put it
- 20:28past us just, you know, as a sell the news event.
- 20:32I really do think that eventually, like everybody is
- 20:37going to turn to Bitcoin, especially when they start to
- 20:41look at previous returns. And we know how boomers love
- 20:46their 5% returns. Imagine if they started seeing
- 20:49it was a 5X return. So yeah, I think I it's, it's
- 20:55exactly what you said. Maybe in the very short term,
- 20:59it's not gonna pump, but in Q4, you better buckle up because
- 21:05it's it's gonna go, it's gonna go way up in my opinion.
- 21:09Yeah. I, I think Q4 is still gonna be
- 21:11extremely bullish, especially if we do get these interest rate
- 21:14cuts. You know, the liquidity is going
- 21:17to expand. And the basic view of inflation
- 21:20is, you know, the more they expand the dollar supply, the
- 21:23more inflation goes up. That's the historical definition
- 21:26of inflation. It's not just, you know, grocery
- 21:29prices going up, it's that they're expanding the money
- 21:31supply and it all has to eventually find a home.
- 21:34They people, once they see inflation is on the horizon,
- 21:37they try to find a place to store their value.
- 21:40And personally here at Simply Bitcoin and probably you guys in
- 21:43the chat, we ball at least at the at least understood that
- 21:47Bitcoin is the best place to store your value.
- 21:49It's the best performing asset the last 16 years.
- 21:52It's the place you need to be. The world is going digital
- 21:55whether we like it or not. It is going digital.
- 21:58It will be digital. I don't think we're going to a
- 22:00world without the Internet. That's why I am making the play
- 22:04that Internet native money is going to be the move of the
- 22:06future. So that's why we're Bitcoiners.
- 22:09Even in the face of all this stuff, Bitcoin is still what, 2%
- 22:14of the global capital? There's still a long ways to go.
- 22:17There's a lot of opportunity. I see that as an opportunity and
- 22:21more importantly, I think that even with just a slight
- 22:25increase, people will FOMO in. I guarantee you this happens
- 22:31every single cycle. You start getting the text from
- 22:34your friends when you know Bitcoin is going parabolic.
- 22:38Hey, I want to buy some Bitcoin, can you help me?
- 22:40And you know, you just like look at them with like the slow
- 22:45blinks and start and start to question like what, Like what
- 22:51what do I look to you? Like I'm not a bank.
- 22:53Like go figure it out yourself. No, I'm just kidding.
- 22:55I'll help all my friends. But you know, people usually
- 22:59tend to FOMO in and and then that's when you know that we've
- 23:03made it to the top. I am waiting for retail FOMO
- 23:07again. That was fun times, good times
- 23:09in 2017, almost good times in 2021.
- 23:12But it's on that we're we're due for another, we're due for
- 23:15another retail moment here. Will we have it this year?
- 23:19I don't know. I'm I'm hoping, I'm really
- 23:20hoping it would be a lot more fun.
- 23:23And in that case, on any case, we still believe Bitcoin's the
- 23:27best way to store your value, to build wealth, build generational
- 23:31wealth. Of course, you know, pay your
- 23:33bills, all that good stuff, but the excess profit should
- 23:36definitely end up in Bitcoin, and that's how you're gonna be
- 23:39able to store your wealth moving into the what?
- 23:42What's it the end of the 21st century?
- 23:45Yeah, middle, middle part. Middle part yeah.
- 23:48Anyways guys, on that note, of course we appreciate every
- 23:51single one of you guys that watches the show.
- 23:53Smash the like button, comment on the show, share it with your.
- 23:56Friends. Yeah, exactly.
- 23:57Do you think rate cuts will be bullish comment on the show?
- 24:01Of course. Subscribe to our channel.
- 24:03We appreciate everyone that's ever watched the video that is
- 24:06subscribed to our channel that hangs out in the chat.
- 24:08You guys mean the world to us. On that note, I do want to give
- 24:11a huge, huge sending of love to our boys over at Bitcoin.
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- 24:46three chances to win a million SAT's in the Bitcoin wishing
- 24:50well. We will be playing it at the end
- 24:52of the show. I I won't forget hopefully like
- 24:55I did. 2 days ago. Get your lightning while it's
- 24:59ready. Yeah, get your lightning while
- 25:02it's ready. And we will give out some
- 25:03Bitcoin at the end of the show. On that note, let's get into the
- 25:06show. So there is some new interesting
- 25:08news coming out of the SEC. It looks like they are pivoting
- 25:11100%. And then also interesting stuff
- 25:14coming out of Asia. It looks like Asia is starting
- 25:18to make moves and in various jurisdictions they, they're
- 25:22again also pivoting into Bitcoin.
- 25:25As our boy Luke likes to say, we are seeing the Asia backflip
- 25:28into Bitcoin happen in real time.
- 25:31And so just around the board, it is a very interesting time in,
- 25:36in terms of Bitcoin adoption, whether you love the nation,
- 25:41states, legislation, regulation or not, it's starting to look
- 25:45like they are waking up to this and they're trying to make moves
- 25:48right now. So very interesting developments
- 25:50happening around the world. On that note, let's get into the
- 25:54show. I want to give a shout out to
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- 27:08se-ed.com store. All right, guys, we are back.
- 27:16And we are on Clark Moody's dashboard.
- 27:18Go to bitcoin.clarkmoody.com. Of course, the current Bitcoin
- 27:22price is 114,520 a -7.9% decline from all time high.
- 27:29So hey, the markets are rallying right now.
- 27:32Yeah, we're we're, you know, there's some life in the price
- 27:34right now. And maybe it's kind of what I
- 27:36was saying in the beginning of the show.
- 27:38Maybe this is people pricing in the interest rate cuts.
- 27:41I have been following a few new, I don't know if I'd call them
- 27:44chart boy boys or not, but they are predicting next week.
- 27:47It's probably going to be a bullish, bullish week, he said.
- 27:51He keeps saying lift off in, I don't know, seven days.
- 27:53I'm like. Like don't get my hopes up here
- 27:55man. Don't get my hopes up please.
- 27:58Anyways, the curtain. You know what?
- 28:00I'd rather keep my expectations down and then be.
- 28:03Yeah, pleasantly surprised. Pleasantly surprised again.
- 28:05Yeah, We, we don't care about the Bitcoin price and Fiat
- 28:07terms. It's it's about how much Bitcoin
- 28:09you own. But hey, look, you guys know me.
- 28:12I, I, I consider myself a moon boy.
- 28:14I, I, yeah, I earned that title with pride.
- 28:16Now I wear it with pride. Now, anyways, the market cap in
- 28:19Fiat terms, in dollar terms is $2.28 trillion and the current
- 28:23block height is 914,256. That's the only the only time
- 28:28that really matters is block height.
- 28:31Then the block height's the only real time in the world right
- 28:34now, 900 and 14256. OK.
- 28:37So as I said, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, he he just did a a
- 28:44speech I believe it was yesterday and he said some
- 28:47interesting things. So I'm going to play that for
- 28:50you. And then I do have a block
- 28:51article kind of highlighting some of the some of the more
- 28:53finer points. So let's play the clip.
- 28:56It is pretty bullish. Obviously, I know a lot of
- 28:59people in the audience aren't that favorable towards the SEC,
- 29:03but it is a further signal of what we've seen that the
- 29:07administrations, the institutions, they are all
- 29:10pivoting now with this ID, at least in the US, which is
- 29:13basically having ripple effects to everywhere else around the
- 29:16world, which I'm going to cover later in the news, that now they
- 29:20are embracing Bitcoin, which is a strange place to be.
- 29:24And considering Bitcoin has been, you know, the outcast for
- 29:27so long. We we've been disbarged and
- 29:30called all kinds of things and now they're making a 180% pivot
- 29:36on what's going on. I think it could be bullish.
- 29:39I'm also a bit concerned about over regulation, so let's just
- 29:44play the clip. And then we'll chat about it.
- 29:47And today, ladies and gentlemen, we must admit that crypto's time
- 29:51has come. For too long, the SEC has
- 29:55weaponized its investigatory subpoena and enforcement
- 29:59authorities to subvert the crypto industry.
- 30:03That approach was not only ineffective, but injurious.
- 30:07It drove jobs, innovation and capital overseas.
- 30:12American entrepreneurs bore the brunt and have been forced to
- 30:15spend fortunes on building a legal defense instead of a
- 30:20business. That chapter belongs to history.
- 30:24It's a new day at the SEC Policy is no longer set by ad hoc
- 30:29enforcement actions. We will provide clear,
- 30:33predictable rules of the road so that innovators can thrive in
- 30:37the United States. President Trump has tasked me
- 30:40and my counterparts across the administration with making
- 30:45America the crypto capital of the world, and the President's
- 30:48Working Group on Digital Asset Markets has delivered a bold
- 30:53blueprint to guide us in those efforts.
- 30:57So guys, we. Need the bars we.
- 30:59Need the bars. So guys, look, a complete shift
- 31:04from Gary Gensler. And we all know I've been saying
- 31:07this on the show, I've been trolling a little bit on the
- 31:09show that Gary Gensler was really a Bitcoin maxi and he was
- 31:12trying to, you know, protect investors from the, the mass
- 31:15scams of shit coins out there, which I, I, that was me.
- 31:19That was me troll. Yeah, he did a class at MIT on,
- 31:22on blockchain. And then so we were all bullish
- 31:25that he would come in and he would be favorable for the
- 31:27industry. And, you know, people are
- 31:29arguing like, hey, the ETF was launched under Gary Gensler.
- 31:33And so I, I kind of took that and spun it and was like, maybe
- 31:36he waited so long because he wasn't able to justify how not
- 31:40to get shit coin ETFs launched. And so This is why it took so
- 31:44long but eventually pushed through the Bitcoin ETF maybe.
- 31:47It was between Iraq. Being being nice about it, yes,
- 31:50but still. He's not here anymore.
- 31:52That's why we can be nice about it.
- 31:55But still the, the rhetoric we're hearing from Paul Atkins
- 31:59here, the new SEC chair, I think it's completely different than
- 32:02what we saw in the past. And as you can hear him in that
- 32:05speech himself, the the biggest point, I mean, he said Kryptos
- 32:08time has come. I, I would argue it's bitcoins
- 32:10time has come, but they are doing some things that I'm, I'm
- 32:14not so favorable about in, in terms of the, the fact that they
- 32:18are using crypto and, and what's going on from the SEC there.
- 32:21Is no crypto without Bitcoin? Totally agree, but it it gets a
- 32:24little worse than that though. But it does seem like they are
- 32:28fully embracing Bitcoin or crypto, whatever, whatever word
- 32:32you want to use and really on the path or at least trying to
- 32:37live up to the meme of US being the Bitcoin superpower of the
- 32:40world. So I'm going to dive over here
- 32:43to the blocks coverage of this because there there is some
- 32:45stuff. In here, that is.
- 32:47I'm sure that the. Audience isn't going to really
- 32:49like, but a very interesting difference from Gary Ginzer when
- 32:53he was SEC chair. So headline SEC chair Atkins
- 32:56says on chain capital raising should come without endless
- 33:00legal uncertainty. I mean, I, I like it in terms of
- 33:04when they talk about Bitcoin as we saw the last year, 2024 was a
- 33:10hard year for Bitcoin as we saw Bitcoin wallet providers and
- 33:14companies leave the US. We saw a lot of people getting
- 33:18arrested. It was, it was a tumultuous
- 33:21year. And there was a very real sense
- 33:24from Bitcoiners that, hey, like this is going the wrong
- 33:27direction. It might not be safer as
- 33:30Bitcoiners. And then, you know, Trump using
- 33:32his campaign was very pro Bitcoin and arguably is one of
- 33:36the reasons why he got elected. Now going into this a little
- 33:39bit, you can see again, basically you saw the clips, but
- 33:43right here is probably where we would differ from Paul Atkins
- 33:48here, the new SEC chair is this quote right here.
- 33:50So Atkins also reiterated the stance that quote most crypto
- 33:54tokens are not securities and fall outside the agent remit
- 33:58now. That's correct.
- 33:59It's currency. Well, I mean.
- 34:02Capital gains tax. I In terms of Bitcoin, yes, I I
- 34:06again, I don't like to be an advocate.
- 34:10For. Law, you know, giving giving
- 34:14institutions of power to arrest people.
- 34:17But I would argue that chick coins are securities.
- 34:21Well by by the Howie test, it is a security.
- 34:23Yes, it. Is, but then now they're saying.
- 34:25It's not, but I also. I also don't care about.
- 34:29Shitcoins I I agree. I agree with that.
- 34:31But also, I don't care. They like I, I could literally
- 34:35care less. Like if they're saying Bitcoin
- 34:38is not a security, then that means that it's a currency, that
- 34:42means that it's protected speech, and that means that you
- 34:46can't tax me if I sell it so. Baby steps, we'll get there.
- 34:51Hopefully, hopefully we'll get there.
- 34:53Anyways, I'm going to read a little more of this.
- 34:55And this is probably where a lot of the Bitcoin Maxis, Bitcoin
- 34:59purists are going to be like, aw man, it's not looking too good.
- 35:02So Paul Atkins called Project Crypto, part of President Donald
- 35:06Trump's efforts to turn America into the crypto capital of the
- 35:09world. The SEC is working to, quote,
- 35:11modernize the security rules and regulations to enable our
- 35:14markets to move on chain. If you guys have been following
- 35:17along, there has been a huge push to tokenize all securities
- 35:22and it seems like now they are, you know, laying the road for
- 35:26that to be possible. So again, going further in this
- 35:29it goes. This includes providing clear
- 35:31guidelines regarding the quote security status of crypto
- 35:34assets, as well as opening the door for trading platforms to
- 35:37offer trading, lending and staking services under a quote
- 35:40single regulatory umbrella. The move comes amid a sea change
- 35:45in the regulatory approach towards crypto in the US.
- 35:48During Trump's second term this summer, lawmakers were able to
- 35:52pass the first substantial piece of crypto legislation, of
- 35:55course, the Genius Act, and have since made progress on the
- 35:58market structure bill called clarity that would determine
- 36:01whether the SEC or the FCC, FTC is responsible for market
- 36:05oversight. So as, as we've been kind of
- 36:08seeing we, we've gotten this sense from the new head of the
- 36:11SEC that they are acknowledging that they had weaponized the SEC
- 36:16against the industry. Now they're trying to, you know,
- 36:20pull back on that. Now maybe they're going a little
- 36:24too far the other way. I, I believe that there's
- 36:26Bitcoin and everything else is a scam, but I'm, I'm not, not, not
- 36:31someone out here to essentially say like, let's make rules.
- 36:34To I think I. Think this might.
- 36:35To make it easier to compete with Bitcoin.
- 36:37But you know it, it's a Gray area.
- 36:39I I. Well, first of all, nothing can
- 36:41compete with Bitcoin and second of all, I, I think this might
- 36:44just be a, a way for you know, the, the SEC or whoever to get
- 36:52people like ripple XRP, all these shit coins to donate more
- 36:55money to them 'cause that's what they did the first time around
- 37:00that's. You know you.
- 37:01Took the word right out of my mouth, Sophie, You took the word
- 37:04right out of my mouth. Just.
- 37:06Be them trying to get them to pay more money to donate more.
- 37:13Totally agree. That seems to be the case and.
- 37:18We are seeing some pushback from politicians in DC in that case
- 37:23and are in that vein. So we, you know, I, I'm going to
- 37:26hold my breath here and see what actually comes out.
- 37:29But I do like the favorable rhetoric.
- 37:32So I'm hopeful, I am hopeful that hey, at the very least, as
- 37:35we've been saying for a long time, the only use case for shit
- 37:39coins is to basically make cover for Bitcoin.
- 37:41So if they're going to let it all flood and and hit the
- 37:43markets, then, you know, game on game.
- 37:47Yeah, game on. Yeah, totally.
- 37:49Like game on, Bitcoins going to succeed via the merits of its
- 37:53own, and then nothing else can compete with Bitcoin.
- 37:55So maybe. This guy is like actually a
- 37:57super hardcore maxi. It's just like unleash the
- 38:02floodgates and let Bitcoin win. Who knows We're.
- 38:06Ending like all protections for shit coins, you can gamble at
- 38:09your own risk, and we're just going to adopt Bitcoin.
- 38:14Yeah, I love it. It's a smokescreen.
- 38:16A smokescreen here. That's the only use case for
- 38:19shit coins. Anyways, I will move on and
- 38:22let's talk about what's happening in Asia.
- 38:25A lot of interesting stuff going on, literally.
- 38:28I don't know if I could say today, it was probably this
- 38:30morning and yesterday, but there's there's some interesting
- 38:33stuff happening. So let's jump right into it.
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- 40:29So we are back and I think this is an interesting pivot.
- 40:33We've been seeing this trend play out the last couple of
- 40:36months in Hong Kong and we have been making this.
- 40:40Case this theory that what happens in Hong Kong is
- 40:43essentially a test bed for you know, mainland China and
- 40:48whatever they do there they're getting.
- 40:51I would say direct approval from mainland China.
- 40:54They have the, you know, two countries, one policy kind of
- 40:58operandis there. And so I don't think this is
- 41:02just like a nothing burger. But anyways, going further, we
- 41:05have Hong Kong moves towards looser bank standards for crypto
- 41:09in bid to cement regional dominance.
- 41:11So as we're seeing right now, as we just played, the US is very
- 41:18blatantly saying, hey, we want to be the Bitcoin capital, the
- 41:21crypto capital of the world. And those ripples are, you know,
- 41:25going out into the rest of the world.
- 41:26And now they're also trying to make some play.
- 41:28So while this might be a minor play in regards to the
- 41:32traditional macro landscape, I think this is a interesting
- 41:36development that yes, whether you love or hate Trump ever
- 41:40since he became pro Bitcoin or pro crypto, however you want to
- 41:43frame it, everyone else had to take what we're doing here a lot
- 41:47more seriously. And we're slowly but surely
- 41:50seeing the pivots happen in real time.
- 41:52So going further into this, Hong Kong proposes easing banking
- 41:55rules for licensed stable coins and select crypto assets.
- 41:58Again, the push for stablecoins is becoming a worldwide
- 42:02phenomenon. So consultation on CRP 1
- 42:05framework open until November 2020.
- 42:07Fifth, effective January 2026. HK MA divides crypto into two
- 42:12groups based on stabilization mechanisms and risks.
- 42:14So Hong Kong taking another step towards cementing its status as
- 42:19Asia's crypto hub again, proposing looser requirements
- 42:23for institutions holding stablecoins and digital assets.
- 42:25The new supervisory policy manual that sets out how crypto
- 42:29should be classified under Basel Committee standards.
- 42:32The proposal, if finalized, would allow banks to treat
- 42:34license stablecoins as lower risk assets, cutting the capital
- 42:38requirements currently applied under international no banking
- 42:41rules. Of course, lighter rules for
- 42:43licensed stable coins and then the crypto part is split into
- 42:47two groups. The HHKMA has divided crypto
- 42:50into two categories Group 1 assets with stabilization
- 42:54mechanisms and effective risk controls.
- 42:56Subgroup 1A covers tokenized traditional assets while 1B
- 42:59includes licensed stable coins and then group 2 unbacked or
- 43:03algorithmic crypto assets without sufficient safeguards
- 43:06covering most of the current market, including Bitcoin and
- 43:09ethereum. This dual tier system slightly
- 43:11diverges from strict basal criteria, but aligns with Hong
- 43:15Kong strategy of balancing innovation with risk control.
- 43:19Again, not not my favorite, you know, views here, but we we know
- 43:24that they they probably can't fully endorse Bitcoin and just,
- 43:29you know, let it all let it all fly.
- 43:31But they are making moves. And so for better or worse,
- 43:34you're starting to see that every institution, or rather
- 43:38most all the institutions in the world are taking what Bitcoin is
- 43:42doing very seriously. Now, this alone would be pretty
- 43:45interesting because we have been covering the saga of what's
- 43:48going on in Hong Kong. Is China mainland tactically
- 43:52involved in this? Is this them directly or
- 43:54indirectly trying to experiment with Bitcoin?
- 43:57I, I would make the case that this is, you know, them
- 44:00experimenting and using Hong Kong as as a test bed for what
- 44:04they're going to do. But also in Asia, we saw this
- 44:07happen this morning as well. South Korea lifts ban on VC
- 44:11funding for crypto companies. They had a ban in place since
- 44:14October 2018 and now they have officially pivoted on this.
- 44:19So South Korean crypto asset related companies can now apply
- 44:23for venture capital funding after seal.
- 44:25Seoul. What is it Seoul?
- 44:26It's Seoul abolished A7 year old ban.
- 44:30The South Korea newspaper Seoul QJ reported that the Ministry of
- 44:34SME's and Startups say the existing ban on crypto firms VC
- 44:38funding will end on September 16th.
- 44:40Isn't that? The same day that they're.
- 44:43Announcing it's the 17th, the day after the day after.
- 44:46Interesting. Yeah, interesting.
- 44:48The ministry said that State Council, South Korea's chief
- 44:51executive body and ministerial cabinet, has signed off on the
- 44:55move. So they agreed to make a partial
- 44:57amendment to the enforcement decree of the Special Act on the
- 45:00Promotion of Venture Business, essentially sending that the
- 45:03amendment will effectively scrap the designation of crypto
- 45:06trading and brokerage provider firms as a restricted venture
- 45:10business. And again, the ban has been in
- 45:12place since 2018. And this is, I think combined
- 45:16is, is very interesting considering what we're hearing
- 45:20from the US, of course, from the Trump administration, from Scott
- 45:23Besson, from the SEC, the CFTC, the US is embracing Bitcoin and
- 45:29now we're seeing that everywhere else is having to embrace
- 45:33Bitcoin too. Whether they like it or not,
- 45:35whether the regulation or, you know, the laws that they put in
- 45:38place are favorable or not, they have to make moves.
- 45:42This is, in my opinion, is essentially the institutions are
- 45:45bending the knee to Bitcoin. They're trying to get ahead of
- 45:48this because they understand that their current regulations
- 45:51are not setting them up to, in their terms, profit from this
- 45:56crypto boom that we are a part of this new gold rush, as people
- 45:59like to call it. So interesting stuff happening.
- 46:02You are seeing that the tide is shifting in our direction again.
- 46:08I would like to see a lot more grassroots adoption of Bitcoin,
- 46:12but a lot of people are still waiting for the authority
- 46:14figures to basically tell them, yeah, it's safe for you to get
- 46:17into Bitcoin. There's again, so many things
- 46:19going on in the world right now that people are hesitant to
- 46:22invest in something like Bitcoin.
- 46:24Even to us it seems like a no brainer.
- 46:27To a lot of people, it's still something they don't want to get
- 46:30involved in, but now they have to.
- 46:33They're starting to change the rules so that they can start to
- 46:35make moves. So I think it's an interesting
- 46:37development. Again, love him or hate him, but
- 46:39Trump really started the dominoes to fall.
- 46:42So kudos. He's he's definitely come
- 46:45through and if these banks in Hong Kong are making it easier
- 46:51or removing regulations and obstacles for people to purchase
- 46:55quote UN quote crypto, that means that the banks themselves
- 47:00might be buying Bitcoin because. Well, the CEOs probably are for
- 47:05sure. No, not the CEOs, the banks
- 47:08themselves. Because think about it, if
- 47:11they're making it easier for money to pour into crypto, then
- 47:17that means that they're going to have to like buy something to to
- 47:21actually be their store of value.
- 47:23I mean, that's what I would do if I was a bank.
- 47:27But what do I know? I'm just, I'm just a girl.
- 47:33To your point though, we have seen a lot of banks and hedge
- 47:39fund invest in micro strategy. So, you know, one step removed
- 47:44again, maybe this is kind of a sign of the times of where we
- 47:49are right now, where direct exposure to Bitcoin is still
- 47:53frowned upon. But hey, you can invest in a
- 47:55company that all they do is buy Bitcoin.
- 47:58And you could just be like, yeah, I, you know, I just, I
- 48:01like what he's doing and the profits are there.
- 48:04So you can justify that case to your shareholders and people at
- 48:08your company. Whereas going directly into
- 48:10Bitcoin could still be looked upon as a bad move.
- 48:15But we've known the ETFs basically, you know, best ETF
- 48:19launch ever. We're seeing a huge amount of
- 48:22buys in MicroStrategy, some banks buying MicroStrategy,
- 48:26sovereign wealth funds buying MicroStrategy.
- 48:28So they're not fully into Bitcoin yet per SE as an entity,
- 48:32as a corporation, but they are making moves towards it.
- 48:36And you know, they, they're moving slow, but just that gives
- 48:39us more time for us to stack and, and acquire our positions
- 48:42here. So I think it's bullish all
- 48:45around. I think, you know, it's all good
- 48:47for Bitcoin. And yeah, we're just starting to
- 48:50see the Domino's fall. It's just very interesting to
- 48:53see how quickly this happens. And like I said, you know, 2025
- 48:56is going to be one of those time stamp years where we
- 49:01acknowledge, yeah, things started to change after that
- 49:04year. And in the moment we, you know,
- 49:07maybe we're getting restless. Maybe we want to see bigger
- 49:10news. We want to see more adoption of
- 49:12Bitcoin being used peer-to-peer by individuals and I.
- 49:15Mean it's that though, it's that's the part it's not so much
- 49:19the news anymore because I don't I don't know how much more
- 49:22positive the news can get. The news has been all positive
- 49:26like 100%. And like when is the news ever
- 49:30100% positive for anything? I think it's, it goes back to
- 49:35what I said the other day. It goes back to like
- 49:37peer-to-peer adoption and usage. And it's really cool that Seoul
- 49:42is lifting this ban because maybe a lot of these companies
- 49:47and startups that are coming up that VCs want to invest in are
- 49:51companies that enable people to use Bitcoin peer-to-peer.
- 49:55And if that happens in Seoul, and if that's like kind of the
- 49:58testing ground to see whether that concept really works or
- 50:02not, I mean, that would be huge. That would be the thing that
- 50:07shows governments, hey, like, maybe we can actually like, like
- 50:12actually like do this, like and hold Bitcoin and it'll be
- 50:15beneficial because look how it's working out for these companies.
- 50:19Look how it's working out for the everyday person.
- 50:22You know, they already know that they have to get in on it.
- 50:25But I think once they realize that the public masses are using
- 50:31it and that it's been tried and true, that's going to be like
- 50:36the final nail in the coffin for the institutions and governments
- 50:40to just go all in. Well, I would love to see.
- 50:43I mean, we do know the Kimchi premium and that that's not like
- 50:48a derogatory term. That's, that's like what they
- 50:50officially call it. There is a huge fervor for
- 50:53Bitcoin in Korea and then past bull markets, like when when the
- 50:59Western world, when the US would go to sleep, you know, Europe
- 51:02would pick up the trading volume and then Korea would basically
- 51:04pick up the rest. And there'd be times where you'd
- 51:07wake up and the price would just be pumping and you'd just be
- 51:10like. My brothers over there in Asia,
- 51:13my Bitcoin brothers holding it down for us.
- 51:15It's and we haven't seen it in a while, but look, but it seems
- 51:21like, you know, I know the, the Bitcoiners out there probably
- 51:24haven't left, but it does look like the pivot we are seeing
- 51:28from the administration in the US is having effects on
- 51:31administrations globally. So look, it does seem like we
- 51:35are on the precipice of everyone adopting Bitcoin.
- 51:38Now, will some of these laws be favorable?
- 51:41That's still all up for debate. And maybe it does lead into more
- 51:45of the sovereign individual thesis where you will see some
- 51:48jurisdictions that treat Bitcoin better and people will start to
- 51:52move there, entrepreneurs will move there.
- 51:54And so competition is good here. I I love to see the competition
- 51:57happening. And it seems like it's just
- 51:59beginning. So yeah, like Sophie was saying,
- 52:01you know, the news seems to be really good.
- 52:04It's been really, really good. How much better can it actually
- 52:06get? I think for all of us is like
- 52:09going down the street and seeing people use Bitcoin is probably
- 52:12the best news where we can use Bitcoin day-to-day.
- 52:15That's going to be, you know, the final, the final apex news
- 52:18for us here. But yeah, it's, it's, it's
- 52:21heating up it, it's changing. The best news that I could ever
- 52:25get is having somebody that I know tell me that, you know
- 52:29they've used Bitcoin in some way that isn't just as a form of
- 52:34investment. That's the best news to me
- 52:37because that means that it's working and that means that it's
- 52:39been a proven concept to somebody that I know.
- 52:42And if it's a proven concept to somebody that I know, then I
- 52:45know that other people who are just like normal everyday
- 52:48individuals will also make that realization on their own.
- 52:53I don't know when, I can't tell you when, but eventually, with
- 52:58enough maniacs like Opti, Nico and I, we will get there.
- 53:04We'll get there one day we will get there OK guys, we're going
- 53:09to go into the culture it's it's going to be a little different
- 53:14than usual. As I said in the beginning, it's
- 53:17it's a crazy day for all of us sad day.
- 53:21So we we will be chatting about it coming up right now so.
- 53:26After the break, we'll be right back.
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- 55:26freedom. All right, guys.
- 55:33So I'm sure you're aware of the very tragic event that happened
- 55:38yesterday. I don't know if everyone saw it,
- 55:40but extremely shocking and graphic video that I'm sure
- 55:45everyone saw, or at least it was circulated all over the
- 55:48Internet. That's all my timeline was
- 55:51really yesterday and you know, earlier today and last night
- 55:54Soph and I and Nico were like, man, what do, what do we do?
- 55:57The show on today It's it's hard to even talk about Bitcoin.
- 56:00It's hard to make content on a day like today.
- 56:03And you know, whether you agreed with his politics or not, to see
- 56:08this happen is just absolutely horrible.
- 56:10So, you know, not to be live about it, but yesterday we lost
- 56:13the bitcoiner guys and and we lost a father and a Christian
- 56:17and a young man that that was a very pro free speech Maxi, you
- 56:22know, willing to debate and it's just it's really hard to put
- 56:26into words. I think I'm still kind of in
- 56:27shock about what happened and what I saw and kind of what is
- 56:31going on in the world and just how tumultuous that like this
- 56:35time actually is. I I know sometimes we're we're
- 56:39very you know, me personally, I'm I'm a jester.
- 56:41I like to joke about it and we talk.
- 56:43You know, I, I say some things that that are that are wild.
- 56:46But yesterday it was, it was definitely one of those moments
- 56:50where I had to reflect on on my life and who I've been.
- 56:53And you know, like what, you know, what if I wasn't here
- 56:56today and just is my life in a, a position right now that that I
- 57:01am OK with and rather have I done everything that I wanted to
- 57:05do. And it was it was just a it was
- 57:08one of those shocking moments. So I'm gonna play this clip of
- 57:10Charlie. I'm sure there's a lot of good
- 57:12clips of Charlie Kirk. Around more more of what his
- 57:16political takes are and and his ideologies.
- 57:18But since this is a Bitcoin show, I'm going to kind of mourn
- 57:23him in the sense of not only his movement, but what he's done for
- 57:27Bitcoin. And you know, it's.
- 57:29Just absolutely tragic to see. So I'm going to play this clip
- 57:33and then I have Ross Ulbricht's kind of take on this and and the
- 57:36importance of Charlie Kirk in in the Bitcoin movement, not just
- 57:39in the cultural movement at large, but in the Bitcoin
- 57:41movement. So here's the first clip.
- 57:44What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?
- 57:45I'm a big fan of it. Should the US do a Bitcoin?
- 57:48Absolutely, yes. Yes, the the United States
- 57:50should should have a strategic Bitcoin.
- 57:51And who should pay for the Bitcoin reserve?
- 57:54That's a good question. Hopefully some of the tariff
- 57:56money could potentially do the reason why I think we should
- 57:59have a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- 58:00I know you guys had Michael Saylor on your show, and I think
- 58:03he's on to something. There is something called like
- 58:05the mass adoption theory, which is over a period of time, like
- 58:08the English language U.S. dollar, things just catch on and
- 58:11they're just kind of volitional and there's no stopping it.
- 58:14I think Bitcoin is that you got to watch out though.
- 58:17Quantum computing could potentially crack cryptography.
- 58:20If they do that, then they're also cracking bank accounts,
- 58:23right? And stock.
- 58:24Trading account so quantum is the only asterisk on all this,
- 58:27but I think Sailors on to something very profound, which
- 58:30is that because Bitcoin is a scarce legitimately scarce
- 58:34resource that is probably going to go nowhere but up.
- 58:37So sailor makes very provocative argument that Bitcoin could go
- 58:39up 10X over the next 10 years or something like that, which
- 58:42therefore, if we start a Bitcoin strategic reserve, it could like
- 58:45pay for the national debt and like basically cover our losses
- 58:49on the deficit. But I think that we should, I
- 58:51think the United States government should be invested in
- 58:53crypto without a doubt. I tend to agree with Michael
- 58:55Saylor that it's more likely to go to a million than 0.
- 58:58Yes, I think that's right. And by by the way, so you have a
- 59:01problem of the world's richest people, they don't know where to
- 59:03put their money. So there's only so many
- 59:05penthouses in London and Paris that they could buy.
- 59:07There's only so many ranches in Wyoming that they could buy.
- 59:10And so they we had this problem. So you create all this money,
- 59:12the money goes upwards to wealth inequality point to your earlier
- 59:16point. The question is then, well, what
- 59:17do rich people do with money? There's only so many equities
- 59:19they can buy. There's only so many shares in
- 59:21NVIDIA and Apple and Microsoft. They could justify.
- 59:24Well, money needs to find a home, and it's found a home in
- 59:26Bitcoin. And so once it has mass adoption
- 59:29and the literally the wealthiest families on the planet are
- 59:31starting to park serious monies in Bitcoin, and because it's
- 59:35scarce, it's easy to transfer and it's just a winner.
- 59:38Sometimes there's a mass adoption and it just rises to
- 59:41the surface. And I think, I think Bitcoin is
- 59:43that. Absolutely spot on.
- 59:47It's man, like, look, I didn't just I didn't agree with all of
- 59:52Charlie Cook's politics, but as a Christian or someone that's
- 59:55trying to be a better person, there's a lot I do agree with
- 59:58him on and it's just in it was very shocking and and intense to
- 1:00:03watch that last night, though again, that clip's spot on.
- 1:00:06I do want to hit on this portion.
- 1:00:08From Ross Ulbric. Which I think really is going to
- 1:00:13cement his place in the Bitcoin history, in the Bitcoin
- 1:00:16movement. Ross did a whole eulogy for him.
- 1:00:20And anyways, he goes last year alone, when President Trump won
- 1:00:23the election, he asked Charlie what was the number one thing he
- 1:00:26could do for him. And Charlie replied, free Ross.
- 1:00:29And in the days leading to my release, Charlie advocated for a
- 1:00:32full pardon. He did this and more without
- 1:00:34expectations of me. You know, just huge shout out
- 1:00:38again, he you could argue that he is, you know, the the main
- 1:00:43person to get Ross freed. I know the Bitcoin community
- 1:00:46rallied around Ross Ulbricht, but he is was part of the the
- 1:00:51Trump inner circle and it's just just too young, tragic.
- 1:00:56And one last thing here from David Bailey, which I think
- 1:00:58really sums up everything. Like, I don't know if you guys
- 1:01:01saw the video, but his shirt was said freedom across his chest
- 1:01:04like, and it's just I'm I'm getting the chills right now
- 1:01:07thinking about it. It's it's just extremely
- 1:01:09horrible and sad to see. So David Baileys tweet without
- 1:01:12freedom of speech there is no America.
- 1:01:14I think that's why I can't shake this pit in my stomach.
- 1:01:16Bitcoin is the last bastion and unsalable freedom immune.
- 1:01:20To. I don't know if I can say that
- 1:01:24immune to conflicts and control, for the sake of the country and
- 1:01:28the world, we must be. Successful, I will echo that as
- 1:01:33a freedom of speech, Maxi. It's you know, I I just it's
- 1:01:36absolutely horrible what we saw someone willing to debate these
- 1:01:39ideas. Just, you know, I, I don't, I've
- 1:01:43literally had a loss of words of what to say guys, a really
- 1:01:46heavy, heavy moment and we've been feeling it here all day.
- 1:01:50You feel it, you feel it online, you feel it in the air, you feel
- 1:01:53it with anybody that you speak to, that the world lost someone
- 1:01:58who was genuinely a good person and genuinely trying to fight
- 1:02:02for what was right. And I didn't know how involved
- 1:02:06he was in free Ross movement. And it just goes to show like
- 1:02:11there was consistency in his message for freedom of speech.
- 1:02:16He really, really believed in that.
- 1:02:18And he really believed that without dialogue, we would be
- 1:02:22lost as a nation because we would be lost without each
- 1:02:26other. If we don't speak to each other,
- 1:02:28if we don't have this basic freedom, then, you know, we lose
- 1:02:33ourselves to dictatorship, authoritarianism and just basic
- 1:02:38like 1984 style, like MPC stuff. So yeah, we lost a really.
- 1:02:45And and the fact that he was killed doing like exactly what
- 1:02:51we you know, what he what he always did, which was just talk
- 1:02:55to people is infuriating, infuriating honestly.
- 1:02:59Like it should make it should make you really sad.
- 1:03:03Yeah. And then also, you know, as
- 1:03:05content creators ourselves, it, it's just it's absolutely
- 1:03:11horrific that something like this would happen for for
- 1:03:15someone that just talks on the Internet.
- 1:03:17It's just we, we are living in, in some crazy times right now,
- 1:03:22tumultuous times right now economically and of course
- 1:03:25societal, culturally and. Yeah, 'cause if it happens to
- 1:03:30somebody like Charlie Kirk, if it almost happened to the
- 1:03:34president of the United States, then you know what's left for
- 1:03:37everybody else. You have to wonder, like, when
- 1:03:41is the day that somebody is going to be upset about us
- 1:03:46talking about Bitcoin? Because you have to realize,
- 1:03:49like, we're talking about the monetary system.
- 1:03:51This is the biggest system in the world aside and and it's the
- 1:03:56foundation of you of like civilization aside from
- 1:04:00religion. There's, you know, money.
- 1:04:03And so when when will they come after Bitcoiners?
- 1:04:08You know, you have to really it. That's why it's such a moment of
- 1:04:10reflection. 100%. For me at least, like aside from
- 1:04:14being a content creator, it's the type of content that we're
- 1:04:17making. Like when will they start to
- 1:04:22come for bitcoiners? Couldn't agree more.
- 1:04:25So, you know, a very solemn day. And then also the the day today
- 1:04:31it's, you know, another, yeah, another tragic event that
- 1:04:37happened here. It's just a very sad day all
- 1:04:40around. Again, you know, whether you
- 1:04:42agreed with him or not, to see this happen is just horrible and
- 1:04:46I'm sure traumatic. Like, I'm still at a loss of
- 1:04:49words. Shocked from that video.
- 1:04:51It was, it's just absolutely insane what happened yesterday.
- 1:04:55And it is very concerning about where we are currently and where
- 1:05:00we're headed. And I think it's very important
- 1:05:03for us to keep a level head and of course do try to fix this
- 1:05:08system peacefully and try to figure out a way that we can
- 1:05:12actually Co opt and live amongst some crazy stuff happening.
- 1:05:17Like things are, it's just a crazy time again, like it's,
- 1:05:20it's hard to even talk about 'cause I fully don't have my
- 1:05:23thoughts around this whole thing.
- 1:05:24I think I'm still in shock, just as everyone else and I, and I
- 1:05:27really don't think that I shocked that.
- 1:05:29Easy. But it man.
- 1:05:32It's that video. It was just insane, man.
- 1:05:34It's just, it's really intense to see what happens and, and
- 1:05:37some people celebrating. It's just horrible.
- 1:05:40It's just absolutely horrible all around.
- 1:05:41To that point, I think that the best thing that we can do right
- 1:05:45now is not give in to this idea of separating and and calling
- 1:05:52our fellow countrymen the enemy. I think the bigger enemy is evil
- 1:05:58itself and we have to do everything to combat that
- 1:06:02spiritually, mentally, physically.
- 1:06:05Like you got to ask yourself, what positive moves are you
- 1:06:10making to make this world a better place?
- 1:06:13And how are you opting out of, you know, this, this system that
- 1:06:19turns people against each other? Like, how are you opting out of
- 1:06:23the, you know, what are you consuming on your day-to-day?
- 1:06:27Are you watching legacy media? Are you letting yourself get,
- 1:06:30you know, brainwashed by people whose best interest is to keep
- 1:06:34us fighting? Or are you, you know, getting
- 1:06:38your information from different sources of from different people
- 1:06:42from different sources? Are you, you know, still a slave
- 1:06:47to Fiat? Or are you opting out and
- 1:06:50defunding these monsters by buying Bitcoin?
- 1:06:53Because at the end of the day, that's what Bitcoin really is.
- 1:06:55That's why we call it the peaceful revolution.
- 1:06:58It's because you are defunding the people who have the ability
- 1:07:03to make this happen for free. And if they don't have that
- 1:07:08power, if they don't have the power to press a button and all
- 1:07:12of us buy into it, then they are no longer in power.
- 1:07:17And you can actually take a lot of that power for yourself to do
- 1:07:21good and to spread love and kindness and have a family and
- 1:07:26have a legacy in this world. Yeah, I would echo what Soph
- 1:07:32said. This is it definitely feels like
- 1:07:35a spiritual war going on right now.
- 1:07:38So you know, me personally, I'm definitely reflecting on, on who
- 1:07:41I am, what I do, and of course trying to align with the good.
- 1:07:45And, and This is why we do what we do is we, we really do want
- 1:07:48to help as many people as possible.
- 1:07:51And as we can see, there is a lot at stake here and there is
- 1:07:59some evil in the world that wants to stop this.
- 1:08:01So I just want to as we wrap up the show to just, you know,
- 1:08:06hopefully we all stay in in good spirits, stay positive, stay
- 1:08:10construct constructive, just crazy times all around.
- 1:08:14Call your loved ones all that good stuff.
- 1:08:16It's just it's, it's a crazy day to say the least, and hopefully
- 1:08:20tomorrow we can come back here in a little better spirits.
- 1:08:23But I, I think we're, our heads are somewhere else right now.
- 1:08:26So on that note, we love you guys.
- 1:08:29We appreciate you guys. Stay safe.
- 1:08:31Stay, you know, hungry for truth.
- 1:08:37You know, let's let's speak the truth, speak truth to power.
- 1:08:41We are here to help the world as as we're trying to help
- 1:08:44ourselves in better our positions in the world.
- 1:08:46But a lot of the division we're seeing right now is getting to a
- 1:08:51very scary place right now. And we just we don't know where
- 1:08:55we're headed right now. So just, you know, keep your
- 1:08:57cool, calm, cool and collective. Let's let's, you know, continue
- 1:09:02to spread Bitcoin, continue to get people to understand why
- 1:09:05they need Bitcoin, and of course, do our best to be good
- 1:09:08people on planet Earth as as we try to do every single day.
- 1:09:12So on that note, guys, really appreciate you guys.
- 1:09:15Rest in peace to Charlie Kirk and of course our thoughts and
- 1:09:18prayers go out to his family. And to all of the victims of
- 1:09:219/11, all the heroes and and people who lost their lives. 100
- 1:09:26percent, 100% it's, it's a, it's a very solemn day and it doesn't
- 1:09:33feel like things are changing right now.
- 1:09:35So, you know, just stay safe out there guys.
- 1:09:38Anyways, on that note, I know kind of a bummer to end today's
- 1:09:41show, but it's a, it's a crazy unprecedented time.
- 1:09:45I I don't think we've use. It use it as fuel to stack some
- 1:09:48sats and you know, keep keep going with the peaceful
- 1:09:52revolution. That's the best thing. 100.
- 1:09:54Percent. Make babies and stack some sats.
- 1:09:58100% So on that note guys, we love you guys.
- 1:10:01We appreciate you guys. Have a good rest of your day.
- 1:10:03We will be back tomorrow for the last show of the week.
- 1:10:06It's your boy Opti. It's the wonderful Sophie.
- 1:10:10See you. See you guys later man, Stay up.
- 1:10:13Bless you all till tomorrow. Later guys.
- 1:10:18Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
- 1:10:22Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
- 1:10:25independence.