Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Brian Grete | Market Update

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Brian Grete | Market Update · AG Bull

0:10
SPEAKER_01: Tough day in the markets today.
0:12
SPEAKER_01: The much anticipated meeting between Trump and G has taken place.
0:17
SPEAKER_01: Can we ascertain that the market did not like what came out of that meeting?
0:22
SPEAKER_01: I'll talk markets and market moving issues with one of the very best in the biz.
0:39
SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Agbull, your pal Davis Michelson, back here in the Ultimate Man Cave in Kansas City, USA.
0:50
SPEAKER_01: Shout out right off the top.
0:52
SPEAKER_01: The Agbull T-Rex himself, Tommy Grasafi, and Jed Sidwell took over for me as I traveled at the end of last week.
1:00
SPEAKER_01: And sure glad to have them there that uh they can take over just for a couple of days, just for a couple of days.
1:07
SPEAKER_01: Get a little breathing room, get my stuff unpacked, and sit with my feet up for just a moment.
1:12
SPEAKER_01: It was great to be back in the state of Iowa, hanging out around Sparkle City.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: I want to talk to my guest today, Brian Grady from Comstock Investments.
1:21
SPEAKER_01: That's CO Double M stock Investments.
1:26
SPEAKER_01: He's obviously there in Sparkle City as well, hometown boy.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: We've got lots to catch up on, lots to talk about.
1:33
SPEAKER_01: He he is our first third-time repeat guest.
1:38
SPEAKER_01: And I'm telling you, I I can't have him on the show too many times.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: He he knows everything about everything, or at least a little bit about just about everything.
1:49
SPEAKER_01: And uh so we're we're gonna have some fun today.
1:52
SPEAKER_01: We got a lot, a lot to talk about.
1:54
SPEAKER_01: I want to get, of course, his impressions of today's market action.
1:57
SPEAKER_01: Man, it turned sour on us.
2:00
SPEAKER_01: I want to talk to him about how, you know, what what I know what the conditions were like in Iowa last week, at least in central Iowa, and it was soggy, good people, and that's certainly probably gonna have an impact on Harvest.
2:14
SPEAKER_01: I want to hear the word on the street from Mr.
2:17
SPEAKER_01: Grady coming up here.
2:18
SPEAKER_01: First of all, let me uh direct you to Agbol.com.
2:21
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2:25
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2:27
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2:33
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2:43
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2:48
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2:51
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2:52
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's uh let's begin.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: I've got export inspections to talk about out just this morning.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: Corn came in at 1.56 million metric tons, 20% below a week ago, but 1.7% above the same week last year.
3:07
SPEAKER_01: Soybean inspections surged 88% above last year, nearly 50% above the prior week at 1.15 million metric tons.
3:16
SPEAKER_01: And wheat inspections were a little different story, down hard from a year ago, 8.6% below the previous week at 310,000 metric tons.
3:27
SPEAKER_01: I've got a little news here for you.
3:29
SPEAKER_01: Uh, speaking of Iowa, I'm gonna run this one by Brian.
3:32
SPEAKER_01: I don't know how much time he's had with this, how much time to reflect.
3:35
SPEAKER_01: Maybe, maybe it's a nothing for today's conversation, but I got to bring it up.
3:40
SPEAKER_01: This from Weissmeyer, President Donald Trump is expected, and actually he did he did uh make an announcement I saw just as we were hitting the big red button here, uh, made an announcement that Misabi Metallics plans to build a$15 billion steel mill in eastern Iowa.
3:57
SPEAKER_01: This according to the Des Moines Register.
3:59
SPEAKER_01: Property owners in Lee County have been approached about selling land and that Iowa lawmakers have been alerted to a possible special session October 2nd to approve tax incentives.
4:10
SPEAKER_01: Reuters separately reports that the proposed mill would initially have annual capacity of 7.5 million tons, potentially expanding to about 10 million tons.
4:21
SPEAKER_01: That, according to a White House official.
4:23
SPEAKER_01: Interesting where they're gonna put this.
4:25
SPEAKER_01: Lee County is where just 10 years ago, I was reporting on a fertilizer factory that went in, making nitrogen there.
4:32
SPEAKER_01: I believe it was UAN, urea, and and some anhydrous as well.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: Lee County, Iowa, now uh getting into the steel business, a$15 billion project.
4:42
SPEAKER_01: I I'm gonna just throw that one by Brian, see what he's see what his impressions are, if there's anything on that.
4:48
SPEAKER_01: Maybe nothing, maybe nothing, but uh we'll certainly talk about it.
4:52
SPEAKER_01: Let's get to the tale of the ticker.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: Corn and soybeans and wheat were under sharp price pressure to start the day.
4:58
SPEAKER_01: Corn was off nine, wheat futures fell 16 to 20 cents, and Novi beans declined more than 35 cents to tap 1282.
5:06
SPEAKER_01: That was within the first hour of trade this morning.
5:09
SPEAKER_01: Livestock futures were mixed, but mostly higher at that point in the day.
5:15
SPEAKER_01: Rounding into the lunch hour, corn, soybeans, and wheat futures paired losses.
5:19
SPEAKER_01: Although along the way, November beans did test a fresh low around 1279 before recovering just a few cents.
5:26
SPEAKER_01: Livestock futures turned lower with cattle futures leading declines.
5:30
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5:33
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5:40
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5:44
SPEAKER_01: And with that, it gives me so much joy.
5:47
SPEAKER_01: I can't even express how much joy it gives me to bring in Brian Grady from Comstock Investments.
5:54
SPEAKER_01: Mr.
5:55
SPEAKER_01: Grady, welcome back to Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
5:57
SPEAKER_01: Appreciate you, brother.
5:58
SPEAKER_01: How's it going?
5:59
SPEAKER_02: Oh, it's going great, uh Davis.
6:01
SPEAKER_02: You mentioned it, it's been soggy around here, but uh what promise in the forecast it will be a little bit drier moving forward.
6:07
SPEAKER_02: It's gonna take a little bit of time to get back in fields.
6:10
SPEAKER_02: Uh it's just uh really wet.
6:12
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
6:13
SPEAKER_01: Big question on on my mind.
6:15
SPEAKER_01: My my dad went to the game.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: I so I left Sparkle City last week.
6:20
SPEAKER_01: And by the way, it looks like you're taking great care of our beloved city in my absence there.
6:25
SPEAKER_01: So well done on that.
6:26
SPEAKER_01: But my dad went to the game at the dome.
6:29
SPEAKER_01: I wondered if you had a chance to make it over there this weekend.
6:31
SPEAKER_01: How do how do the Panthers look this year?
6:34
SPEAKER_02: Well, I did not make it over there.
6:35
SPEAKER_02: I had some other things I was doing on Saturday, but uh they took down the number three or four ranked Illinois State team.
6:42
SPEAKER_02: So that was a huge win.
6:43
SPEAKER_02: New coaching staff came in last year, so this year, year number two.
6:47
SPEAKER_02: They're they've been searching for a signature win, and they definitely got it on Saturday.
6:51
SPEAKER_02: So things are are pointed up in that direction.
6:53
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
6:54
SPEAKER_01: Did I see the Hawkeyes kind of beat up on the Panthers a few weeks ago?
6:57
SPEAKER_01: Or is that what did I dream that?
6:59
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they they took them behind the woodshed.
7:01
SPEAKER_02: That's probably not too much of a surprise.
7:02
SPEAKER_02: Iowa's got a pretty solid team this year.
7:05
SPEAKER_02: And like I said, you and I are trying to grow and and develop a little bit more under the new coaching staff.
7:11
SPEAKER_02: And so yeah, they they got taken behind the woodshed in that one.
7:14
SPEAKER_01: Boy, them Hawkeyes pulled out a squeaker, didn't they?
7:17
SPEAKER_02: Oh, it was exciting, you know.
7:20
SPEAKER_02: I mean, uh, it seems like we got some pretty decent football here in the state of Iowa this year.
7:24
SPEAKER_02: Uh so we'll see how it all rounds up.
7:26
SPEAKER_02: But when, you know, we still got a long ways to go.
7:27
SPEAKER_02: We're just in the infancy of college football season.
7:30
SPEAKER_01: I haven't been uh paying attention to the cyclones at all, as is as is my way.
7:34
SPEAKER_01: Uh as I understand it, they're not even playing football this year.
7:36
SPEAKER_01: Is that right, Brian?
7:37
SPEAKER_01: No cyclone football this year at all.
7:39
SPEAKER_02: They got beat by Utah.
7:40
SPEAKER_02: Utah's a pretty good team on Saturday.
7:42
SPEAKER_02: So uh we'll see.
7:43
SPEAKER_02: They have a new coach as well, and and so uh they're trying to kind of form an identity.
7:48
SPEAKER_02: They look good, they play hard.
7:50
SPEAKER_02: They maybe need a little bit of improvement and some talent in some of the the positions, but we'll see.
7:55
SPEAKER_02: I I think they'll be fine.
7:56
SPEAKER_02: They're they're a tough team and and they get after it.
7:59
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
8:00
SPEAKER_01: Just one more sportsball question, because you know how much I know about sports ball, which is just I'm about at the end of my rope here.
8:07
SPEAKER_01: But uh let me live vicariously through you if I can.
8:10
SPEAKER_01: The Royals that were doing Royal stuff all all summer long.
8:14
SPEAKER_01: How do the cubbies look this year?
8:16
SPEAKER_02: Well, we're in the postseason.
8:18
SPEAKER_02: Uh that's the good news.
8:19
SPEAKER_02: The bad news is we have to play the Padres in a uh wild card series, and Padres have been the hottest team in baseball here recently.
8:27
SPEAKER_02: So go cubbies.
8:28
SPEAKER_02: Hopefully, hope for the best.
8:29
SPEAKER_02: We've had uh just an unbelievable amount of injuries this year, especially to the pitching staff.
8:34
SPEAKER_02: So hopefully we just pull this one out against the Padres and then keep moving forward through the series, and maybe it'll be a repeat of 2020 2016, excuse me, when we won the World Series and and you know, and get a kind of a miracle finish here.
8:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, that'd be fun.
8:48
SPEAKER_01: That'd be fun.
8:50
SPEAKER_01: You you mentioned it was wet.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: I was complaining about it all last week.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: I was broadcasting from from a hotel there on the south side of Iowa that you and I know fairly well.
8:59
SPEAKER_01: And it it did dry off toward the end of the week there, but as I was looking at my phone, it it looks like you got some more rain over the weekend there.
9:07
SPEAKER_01: Give us a little backyard itis.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: What's it look out the window, brother?
9:10
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, today's overcast, but it it hasn't rained much.
9:13
SPEAKER_02: I think we got a little bit overnight, but nothing meaningful there.
9:16
SPEAKER_02: But you know, last week was beautiful weather if you're a duck.
9:19
SPEAKER_02: If you're not a duck, not so much.
9:21
SPEAKER_02: So we're hoping that the forecast warms up a little bit and and dries off and we get some sunshine, maybe.
9:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
9:29
SPEAKER_01: What uh is that's gotta be the word among farmers.
9:32
SPEAKER_01: Although I was surprised, I've it it seems like according to the crop condition reports that USDA has been putting out every week, that nationally maybe the corn crop is is just and the beans too, slightly ahead on maturity, and maybe that's skewed by this area or that area, but it maybe my expectations were incorrect for what the the corn and soybean crops were going to look like.
9:57
SPEAKER_01: And I came straight up 35 and then over on highway 20.
10:01
SPEAKER_01: I guess variability is what I would call.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: There were some beans out there that still had some green going, and some that looked like they were about ready to go.
10:07
SPEAKER_01: What's your thought?
10:08
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so most of the crops I think are are getting to the finish line here.
10:12
SPEAKER_02: There are still some fields out there that are green, like you mentioned, soybeans.
10:16
SPEAKER_02: But you know, we just need drier weather to get to harvest at this point in time.
10:20
SPEAKER_02: But really, I don't think the rain slowed us down on the harvest pace as much as just being a nuisance.
10:26
SPEAKER_02: There are some fields that are out there ready to go, no doubt about that.
10:29
SPEAKER_02: And the rains did slow that down.
10:31
SPEAKER_02: But as a whole, I think that we'd had some of the better growing conditions across the corn belt this year here in Iowa, and so it was going to be a longer growing season anyway, from that perspective.
10:42
SPEAKER_02: So I we'll get going here as the weather improves.
10:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
10:47
SPEAKER_01: Well, let's let's talk about today's market action, let's dial in specifically on the corn and soybeans.
10:54
SPEAKER_01: And I want to go straight to the November bean contract.
10:56
SPEAKER_01: $12.88 and one quarter was down 30 cents and three-quarters.
11:03
SPEAKER_01: Are you surprised to see us back in 12 handle territory?
11:07
SPEAKER_01: Are you nervous about that?
11:08
SPEAKER_01: Can you talk to us about that November bean contract?
11:11
SPEAKER_01: It feels significant dipping below the$13 level.
11:14
SPEAKER_02: Well, the significance is that we were in a sideways trading range for almost a month and we broke down below that today.
11:20
SPEAKER_02: So then you break below the psychological$13 level.
11:24
SPEAKER_02: The funds are aggressively extended to the long side.
11:27
SPEAKER_02: And so I think that with the technical breakdown, there is risk that we could see more funds selling.
11:31
SPEAKER_02: Now, the the whole sell-off today was tied to China and disappointment that soybeans didn't make it on the exempt list for tariff reductions.
11:41
SPEAKER_02: And so that all played into that.
11:43
SPEAKER_02: But you know, they went into it, the funds were extended to the long side, they were bullish going into this trade meeting.
11:50
SPEAKER_02: Expectations were that soybeans were gonna get tariff relief, they didn't get that, and boy, the door slammed, and and we took a sharp day down here in the marketplace.
12:01
SPEAKER_02: So we'll see.
12:02
SPEAKER_02: Today's lows are important.
12:03
SPEAKER_02: If we take out today's lows, then it opens the door for a deeper setback and more fund liquidation and that type of thing.
12:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
12:11
SPEAKER_01: Well, and and I was gonna ask you about this.
12:14
SPEAKER_01: Comstock investments has a channel on YouTube, Comstock Investments, from six days ago.
12:20
SPEAKER_01: I scoped one of your videos, and you sort of discussed a question that I had in that video, and that was what could derail buying in grains among the funds?
12:30
SPEAKER_01: And you mentioned that Trump G meeting as a potential enthusiasm flattener.
12:36
SPEAKER_01: Can we we can talk more about that meeting and what came out of it, but did that did the results of that meeting impact maybe some attitudes around the funds?
12:47
SPEAKER_01: Can we can we ascertain that at this point?
12:51
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I think so.
12:52
SPEAKER_02: So they liquidated long positions today.
12:54
SPEAKER_02: We'll see, like I said, how much more comes, or if they step in and see the big break as a buying opportunity.
13:00
SPEAKER_02: So we'll see exactly how bullish they are by the end of the week, I guess.
13:04
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, hard to to say one way or the other from one day of price action.
13:09
SPEAKER_02: Sure, we got the technical breakdown and we got the funds liquidating long positions and all that, but how do they respond to that?
13:15
SPEAKER_02: Do they get nervous and ditch more long positions, or do they step up and see it as a buying opportunity?
13:21
SPEAKER_02: And and we'll know that in the days ahead.
13:23
SPEAKER_02: And we're probably going to talk about this later on, but the uh Wednesday's reports from USDA may have a say in all that when all said and done at the end of the week.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: Okay, I do want to cover that a little bit later.
13:36
SPEAKER_01: We got grain stocks and small grains summary coming up here later on this week.
13:41
SPEAKER_01: It could be uh could be a banger, it could be what maybe plugs the hole here if we if we see more downside action this week.
13:48
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about uh the corn market down five and a quarter cents on the day today at 523.
13:54
SPEAKER_01: And then, you know, I'm just gonna I'm gonna pile on the December wheat down 14 and a half at 688 and three quarters.
14:02
SPEAKER_01: KC was down sixteen and a quarter, 745 and three quarters.
14:06
SPEAKER_01: Man, it was it was ugly today.
14:09
SPEAKER_01: Attitudes among the funds the the same here in the corn market, Brian?
14:13
SPEAKER_02: Well, yes, they are heavily extended to the upside in corn as well.
14:18
SPEAKER_02: And so corn was clearly a follower today, following the soybean market lower.
14:23
SPEAKER_02: And I think that like if the funds had to choose to be long one of those because the balance sheets expected to tighten a fair amount as we go through 2026-27 marketing year, that they would probably favor corn, you know.
14:36
SPEAKER_02: But we'll we'll see if they get in heavy liquidation mode and it's broad based across multiple days.
14:42
SPEAKER_02: Boy, it's hard to stop the floodgates at that point in time.
14:45
SPEAKER_02: And and so corn could get caught up in that, definitely.
14:49
SPEAKER_01: Can we talk a little bit?
14:51
SPEAKER_01: And I I think you've touched on it, and maybe it's too soon to have this conversation, but I really want to get practical here.
14:57
SPEAKER_01: Right around harvest time, we're just about ready to roll there.
15:00
SPEAKER_01: As soon as it dries out a little bit in your area, I know other areas they're already rolling heavy.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: Can you give us the the bull and the bear scenarios here?
15:10
SPEAKER_01: What help farmers get their head around?
15:12
SPEAKER_01: Do we do we need to be just kind of taking advantage of some of these prices?
15:16
SPEAKER_01: What's basis look like?
15:18
SPEAKER_01: Do we just run it to town straight off the combine?
15:20
SPEAKER_01: What what might you say?
15:22
SPEAKER_02: Well, seasonally, harvest time is is a difficult time to generate buyer interest, to be honest.
15:28
SPEAKER_02: You get bushels coming to town, you get uh hedge pressure, farmer selling, all the whole cash of everything kind of comes against you at that point in time.
15:37
SPEAKER_02: So now with the technical breakdown in corn that we saw last Friday and some follow-through today, technical breakdown in soybeans, we're probably likely to face some seasonal price pressure.
15:48
SPEAKER_02: Now, historically, we don't make our annual high in either December corn or November soybeans in September.
15:55
SPEAKER_02: So just keep that in mind.
15:57
SPEAKER_02: I I think that the likelihood is that we face a little bit of price pressure here near term, maybe even as we move through October.
16:04
SPEAKER_02: And then we see somewhat of a rebound in the post-harvest time frame, November-ish, that that time frame.
16:11
SPEAKER_02: So that's the first thing.
16:12
SPEAKER_02: On the basis side, so that's that's the cash market that is moving bushels around on what's needed now.
16:18
SPEAKER_02: Soybean supplies, especially here in the Western Corn Belt, are tight.
16:22
SPEAKER_02: And so we've seen a big push on basis there.
16:25
SPEAKER_02: The soy crush plants, they'll do whatever they can to get their hands on bushels.
16:29
SPEAKER_02: Because of some of these delays in the Western Corn Belt on the harvest side of things, they got a little bit short on some of their needs and commitments here in the near term, and so that's causing an increase in basis.
16:41
SPEAKER_02: Seeing a little bit of that in corn too, but not as much as in soybeans.
16:46
SPEAKER_01: Let's uh let's round out the grains here and talk about wheat just a little bit because I mean we're off 13, 15, 16 cents here today, and I think you and I are of the same mind that if we're gonna get some demand going, it's probably gonna mean the prices have fallen.
17:03
SPEAKER_01: Is this enough of a dip to bring in some buyers on wheat?
17:08
SPEAKER_02: You know, probably not.
17:09
SPEAKER_02: I know we all know about the Black Sea issues and Russia and Ukraine.
17:12
SPEAKER_02: They're having trouble shipping wheat because they keep bombing each other and attacking port infrastructure and shipping and everything.
17:19
SPEAKER_02: But what that's done is that shifted demand flows, trade flows around the world, but the first source is Europe.
17:27
SPEAKER_02: And so that's where those value buyers are going at the moment.
17:31
SPEAKER_02: U.S.
17:32
SPEAKER_02: wheat is high quality and high price compared to the others, especially when you consider the uh shipping costs.
17:39
SPEAKER_02: And so that's going to be detrimental to really increasing demand.
17:44
SPEAKER_02: Now, will we see an increase in uh wheat demand?
17:47
SPEAKER_02: Oh, in all likelihood, yes.
17:49
SPEAKER_02: Are we seeing it right now?
17:51
SPEAKER_02: No, not enough to be price supportive to the marketplace.
17:54
SPEAKER_02: So wheat is kind of caught.
17:56
SPEAKER_02: Now, the funds were long, they had gone long SRW wheat, that is not typical.
18:02
SPEAKER_02: They've since moved to a short position, which is really their typical stance.
18:06
SPEAKER_02: And so I think the the wheat market is kind of typical from that standpoint.
18:11
SPEAKER_02: Now, the funds are still long HRW and spring wheat a little bit, but they're shedding length in both of those markets.
18:17
SPEAKER_02: And so it feels to me that like if you just made me pick, I would say the funds would choose to be long corn, soybeans are somewhere in the middle, and then they would choose to be long wheat, the least of those three by by all means.
18:32
SPEAKER_01: Europe, by all accounts, was an absolute skillet over the summertime here.
18:38
SPEAKER_01: I wonder, do you have a sense or maybe a source on just how damaging the summer's heat and and drought was to the European crop?
18:47
SPEAKER_01: And is do we need to run through that European crop on the global market first before we can get a look?
18:54
SPEAKER_02: Well, I everything that we faced in July, they had more intense heat and it lasted longer across Europe.
19:02
SPEAKER_02: And I think at the time I was on last time with you, we talked about everybody was worried about the European wheat crop crop.
19:09
SPEAKER_02: Well, it was almost at harvest at that point in time.
19:12
SPEAKER_02: So the the heat and dryness that baked across Europe didn't really have an impact on the wheat crop per se.
19:19
SPEAKER_02: The corn crop, absolutely, and what we will see is that Europe will be a big importer of corn, and the U.S.
19:25
SPEAKER_02: is probably going to be a pretty big supplier of that corn that the European Union needs as we move through 2026-27.
19:33
SPEAKER_02: And so I think that that's probably the biggest takeaway.
19:36
SPEAKER_02: They have smaller grain supplies, they are going to need to import corn, and the U.S.
19:42
SPEAKER_02: will provide most of that corn, in my opinion.
19:45
SPEAKER_01: Are we still doing all right business with Europe on the ethanol side?
19:50
SPEAKER_01: Stocks I've seen are you know 24 and a half million barrels or or whatever, somewhere in that neighborhood.
19:56
SPEAKER_01: And it seems like they had been a good customer in the past.
20:00
SPEAKER_01: Are they still buying U.S.
20:01
SPEAKER_01: ethanol?
20:02
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, absolutely.
20:03
SPEAKER_02: And and ethanol exports have been great.
20:05
SPEAKER_02: Uh, we had a record year in 2025, strong year through the first half of 2026 here.
20:11
SPEAKER_02: And so, you know, it that is part of the story.
20:14
SPEAKER_02: Ethanol production has been strong, and we are exporting a big portion of that supply around the world, Europe being a key customer there.
20:23
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, very good, very good.
20:25
SPEAKER_01: Let's uh, you know, while we're talking markets, let's just go ahead and flip over to the livestock.
20:29
SPEAKER_01: We don't need I don't we can spend as much or as little time on the livestocks as you want to, but I've got October cattle here down 302 and a half on the day.
20:38
SPEAKER_01: Down on the livestocks today as well, 331.90 on your October feeders, October fat cattle at 217.45, down a buck 42 and a half, and then over to I'm gonna look at the December lean hogs down 62 and a half, 68 and 40.
20:55
SPEAKER_01: Brian, if you could just give us some general thoughts on on the livestocks and how you like the setup here.
21:01
SPEAKER_02: Well, cattle, I think they've put in their lows, but it's been a gonna be a grind moving higher, to be honest with you.
21:07
SPEAKER_02: We had a big fund flush of long positions, and and so that kind of put in our lows.
21:13
SPEAKER_02: We're waiting on the cash market to come around.
21:15
SPEAKER_02: We've been thinking now for a couple weeks that that the cash would trade higher.
21:19
SPEAKER_02: It's been disappointing.
21:20
SPEAKER_02: I'll go a steady higher this week just because one of these weeks we're gonna turn it around and see some positive trade.
21:27
SPEAKER_02: Feeder cattle auctions, they remain disappointing and weak.
21:31
SPEAKER_02: We have the border reopening at two ports, Douglas, Arizona on August 24th, and then Santa Teresa in New Mexico on September 24th.
21:40
SPEAKER_02: So last week, and and that is increased some of the Mexican feeder cattle supplies and maybe just weaken the demand at the uh auction barns.
21:49
SPEAKER_02: You know, the the trade or the flows across the border haven't been big by any means, but I think there's just enough geopolitical headwinds there on on that border reopening to kind of make traders cautious, especially when the the cash market or cash indexes aren't moving higher.
22:05
SPEAKER_02: And and so that's kind of where we're at with cattle.
22:09
SPEAKER_02: I think it's put in a bottom, trying to recover.
22:12
SPEAKER_02: Been a slow grind at this point in time.
22:15
SPEAKER_02: Once we get the cash markets to start firming up, then I think it becomes a little bit easier to find the buyers in the futures.
22:21
SPEAKER_02: Hogs, hogs are are rough right now.
22:24
SPEAKER_02: They are seasonally, it's not a good time.
22:27
SPEAKER_02: We had the bullish hogs and pigs report last Thursday.
22:31
SPEAKER_02: We got intraday price strength, strong intraday price strength, couldn't hold it.
22:35
SPEAKER_02: And now we're pressing on the lows.
22:38
SPEAKER_02: And so just seasonally, it's not the right time.
22:41
SPEAKER_02: There's a difference between a bullish hogs and pigs report in March or June than what there is in September.
22:48
SPEAKER_02: And unfortunately, we got the bullish news in September when it's seasonally weak for the uh the cash and futures.
22:54
SPEAKER_01: Double whammy there in the hogs.
22:55
SPEAKER_01: You you mentioned something that made me think back to corn geopolitical to a degree with cattle moving back and forth across the border with Mexico.
23:06
SPEAKER_01: Does that get into corn too?
23:07
SPEAKER_01: How of how has demand from Mexico been for U.S.
23:10
SPEAKER_01: corn?
23:11
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, uh Mexico's been a great buyer of U.S.
23:13
SPEAKER_02: corn, and I think they'll continue to be, you know, and and part of the reason they were such a huge buyer over the past couple of years is because all those cattle were kept at home.
23:22
SPEAKER_02: They couldn't cross the border into the United States, so they had to feed them, right?
23:26
SPEAKER_02: Well, they you turned to U.S.
23:27
SPEAKER_02: corn to to meet those feed needs.
23:29
SPEAKER_02: Now we got a few trickling across the border, so probably a little bit lesser corn demand, but boy, Mexico's gonna be remain the number one buyer of U.S.
23:38
SPEAKER_02: corn, definitely.
23:39
SPEAKER_01: They're gonna sell it back to us on four legs, aren't they?
23:42
SPEAKER_02: Well, I don't want to tell them what to do, but the meat is worth more than the animal.
23:47
SPEAKER_01: So yeah, yeah.
23:49
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
23:50
SPEAKER_01: All right.
23:50
SPEAKER_01: Hey, I got a question for you.
23:51
SPEAKER_01: This one comes out of left field, and then then I want to move on to Trump and G and just dig in a little bit more on the reciprocal tariff stuff and have you walk me through TRQs.
24:02
SPEAKER_01: You you and I worked uh worked at Profarmer together for quite a bit.
24:05
SPEAKER_01: And as I understand, as I have in my notes here, you are several months my senior.
24:10
SPEAKER_01: Is that what you had as well?
24:11
SPEAKER_01: Quite a quite a bit older than me.
24:13
SPEAKER_02: Several months you're junior.
24:14
SPEAKER_02: You're you're older than I am.
24:16
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
24:17
SPEAKER_02: We're getting it that way.
24:18
SPEAKER_02: It's like what like 11 months or something, 10 months.
24:21
SPEAKER_02: I don't know, something like that.
24:22
SPEAKER_01: Something like that.
24:23
SPEAKER_02: Inconsequential.
24:24
SPEAKER_02: We're both dinosaurs.
24:25
SPEAKER_02: I mean, let's be honest.
24:26
SPEAKER_01: I mean we're getting there, baby.
24:28
SPEAKER_02: We're my kids look at me like three generations older than they are.
24:31
SPEAKER_02: I can't keep up with all their vernacular and all that stuff that they use now, but ooh.
24:36
SPEAKER_01: We were born in the 1900s, you know.
24:38
SPEAKER_01: That's the olden times, apparently.
24:40
SPEAKER_02: Well well before 2000.
24:43
SPEAKER_02: Well before 2000.
24:44
SPEAKER_01: Well, I do appreciate all the knowledge that you imparted to me when we were working so closely together back at uh in the pro farmer days.
24:51
SPEAKER_01: I was going through my closet and I still have uh some of my embroidered uh pro farmer shirts, and I was taking some clothes to goodwill, and I couldn't bring myself to throw the pro farmer shirts in.
25:01
SPEAKER_01: Do you still have your pro farmer shirts?
25:03
SPEAKER_01: What what do I do with these?
25:04
SPEAKER_02: What do I do with it?
25:05
SPEAKER_02: I I'm I'm not certain.
25:07
SPEAKER_02: My wife pretty much controls my closet, so I'm gonna guess I don't.
25:12
SPEAKER_02: Where they went, I don't know, but uh I'm I'm gonna say no.
25:17
SPEAKER_02: Okay, I'm not much for the the clothing line of things, so she kind of controls that.
25:22
SPEAKER_01: Well, viewers, if you happen to see someone walking around the streets of Kansas City wearing a pro farmer sort of a an Oxford shirt that looks like it hasn't been used that much, it they may or may not be actual pro farmer people.
25:34
SPEAKER_01: I'll just throw that out there.
25:37
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get to uh to Trump and G.
25:41
SPEAKER_01: And could you continue in schooling me on what some of this stuff means?
25:46
SPEAKER_01: TRQs, tariff rate quotas, as I understand these were a big topic of conversation at the Trump G summits, or probably more so among the people who met last weekend and talked about these things.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: But some reciprocal tariffs dropped.
26:03
SPEAKER_01: Let's let's start there for our viewers and for for my benefit.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: Can you talk about TRQs, what they are, and why why it's why do we care?
26:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so first I'm gonna talk about the rollback of tariffs.
26:15
SPEAKER_02: So included in that was corn, wheat, rice, sorghum, barley, meats, dairy products, so on and so forth, ethanol, not included in that list.
26:28
SPEAKER_02: So they they will maintain the same tariffs that they had before are soybeans and also DDGs.
26:35
SPEAKER_02: And so those were the two big losers, I would say, are soybeans in particular, and then the the DDGs as well.
26:42
SPEAKER_02: So everything else will see their tariffs roll back to some degree.
26:45
SPEAKER_02: We don't know what that degree is yet, and we don't know when that will take effect, but that is what was negotiated at last week's meeting.
26:54
SPEAKER_02: The TRQs, those are tariff rate quotas, and so that is the level that China will allow under low tariffs.
27:02
SPEAKER_02: So when we're talking about the levels that were rolled back, they can import uh it's 7.2 million tons of corn, it's like 5.32 million tons of wheat, and so on and so forth.
27:14
SPEAKER_02: Sorghum does not fall under that, and so it doesn't have a TRQ.
27:18
SPEAKER_02: So that is a commodity that I think China will take advantage of and import because let's be honest, the U.S.
27:26
SPEAKER_02: supplies the bulk of China's sorghum needs anyway.
27:30
SPEAKER_02: And so once those tariffs are rolled back, China will come in and they'll buy some U.S.
27:34
SPEAKER_02: sorghum.
27:35
SPEAKER_02: That'll help get them to that prorated$17 billion that they need to buy for 2026.
27:41
SPEAKER_02: Now, cotton's on the TRQ list.
27:43
SPEAKER_02: So now there are ways around the TRQs.
27:46
SPEAKER_02: So once you get to let's use corn as an example, that 7.2 million tons, that doesn't mean that in theory, everything beyond that is taxed at like I think it's 65% for corn and wheat.
27:59
SPEAKER_02: But there are ways around that.
28:02
SPEAKER_02: And that's getting way too deep in the weeds at this point in time.
28:05
SPEAKER_02: But I I think the the keys that we want to watch moving forward are how much are tariffs rolled back on those products that are on the rollback list, and when does it take effect, and then watch for the demand from the Chinese commercial side of things?
28:22
SPEAKER_01: Couple of questions.
28:23
SPEAKER_01: First of all, does Am I looking at this right?
28:27
SPEAKER_01: Does this sort of leave the United States with a little bit of leverage?
28:32
SPEAKER_01: Does this leave a soybean lever possibly here?
28:36
SPEAKER_01: Is that is that why soybeans were left off of that list, or am I just reading this completely wrong?
28:41
SPEAKER_02: So I I think that the U.S.
28:43
SPEAKER_02: negotiated soybeans to now this was negotiated, so it was both China and the United States came to this agreement.
28:49
SPEAKER_02: But soybeans were left off the list, I think, for a couple of reasons.
28:52
SPEAKER_02: One, it gives China leverage because they can sit out there, they they can kind of control the soybean purchases because they'll be done by state-owned firms, unless those tariffs get rolled back down the road.
29:04
SPEAKER_02: So they can use that as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.
29:08
SPEAKER_02: Say, yeah, you know what, we'll roll back the tariffs on U.S.
29:11
SPEAKER_02: soybeans, blah, blah, blah, uh, that type of thing.
29:14
SPEAKER_02: From the US side of things, China rolled back tariffs on$30 billion worth of goods.
29:19
SPEAKER_02: Now, I want to be clear that that doesn't mean that they are going to buy$30 billion of goods.
29:24
SPEAKER_02: They rolled back the tariffs on$30 billion of U.S.
29:28
SPEAKER_02: goods.
29:28
SPEAKER_02: They have to get to$17 billion of other goods, ag goods besides soybeans for 2026.
29:34
SPEAKER_02: That will be prorated.
29:35
SPEAKER_02: We don't know that level yet.
29:37
SPEAKER_02: But when we find it out, then we'll kind of be able to discern a little bit more.
29:42
SPEAKER_02: But if soybeans were included on the rollback, this goes back to 2024 bilateral trade between the United States and China.
29:51
SPEAKER_02: They had almost$13 billion of valuation that year.
29:56
SPEAKER_02: So that would be about 43% of that$30 billion that soybeans would have accounted for by themselves.
30:03
SPEAKER_02: So from the US perspective, this opens access to the Chinese market for other goods like corn and wheat and sorghum and barley and ethanol and meats and cotton.
30:17
SPEAKER_02: And so it's more than soybeans.
30:20
SPEAKER_02: And if we think about what has happened, last October we negotiated the 25 million tons of soybean purchases with China, and they need soybeans.
30:30
SPEAKER_02: They import about 80% of their needs.
30:32
SPEAKER_02: So they were willing to put a tonnage on it.
30:34
SPEAKER_02: In mid-May, we negotiated the additional$17 billion ag purchases from China, but we didn't have any knowledge of what it would entail from a commodity perspective or a volume perspective.
30:49
SPEAKER_02: So China really wanted to keep the flexibility because why would China get pigeonholed into buying something it doesn't need?
30:55
SPEAKER_02: Its domestic market is telling us it doesn't need corn right now.
30:59
SPEAKER_02: Prices are falling, they're not rising.
31:02
SPEAKER_02: And so why would China agree to buy X number of million tons of corn if it doesn't need it?
31:07
SPEAKER_02: So they get the flexibility.
31:09
SPEAKER_02: So I think that there was trade-offs on both sides of things there.
31:13
SPEAKER_02: But the bottom line is this opens up market access, more market access for other goods besides soybeans.
31:20
SPEAKER_02: We already know that China's going to buy soybeans anyway.
31:23
SPEAKER_01: You mentioned that 17 billion.
31:25
SPEAKER_01: We are well behind on that figure, as uh as I understand.
31:31
SPEAKER_01: Does this kind of grease those skids just a little bit to help China maybe live up to that commitment?
31:38
SPEAKER_02: Oh, absolutely.
31:39
SPEAKER_02: I think so.
31:39
SPEAKER_02: And and you know, U.S.
31:41
SPEAKER_02: trade representatives representative Jamison Greer last week had said it they were about$4 billion in purchases over the weekend in the interview.
31:48
SPEAKER_02: He said about$5 billion.
31:50
SPEAKER_02: You know, and we don't know that pro-rated rate.
31:53
SPEAKER_02: So it'll be some something less than$17 billion for 2026 because it's prorated.
31:58
SPEAKER_02: We just don't know where it's at.
31:59
SPEAKER_02: So whether they've already bought$4 billion or$5 billion, they need to get to X that's below$17 billion for 2026.
32:08
SPEAKER_02: We just don't know what that is, and we don't know what the commodity mix will be within that to get to that level.
32:15
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
32:15
SPEAKER_01: It does it doesn't sound like too bad a deal.
32:19
SPEAKER_01: I mean, on in some respects leading up to it, there was even speculation.
32:24
SPEAKER_01: Well, this their this meeting isn't gonna happen, they're gonna cancel it.
32:28
SPEAKER_01: Oh, they really are gonna have the meeting, and there was some mild exuberance there.
32:32
SPEAKER_01: And then we get this this deal that seems like it's it encourages from both sides to keep doing business together amicably.
32:42
SPEAKER_01: What did the funds want that they didn't get out of this meeting to see that that made them turn a little pessimistic?
32:51
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, the disappointing side on the the soybeans was that we didn't get tariff reductions.
32:55
SPEAKER_02: Okay, and that's what they wanted, and they didn't get that, and so the funds sold off and and the market sold off.
33:02
SPEAKER_02: On the corn and wheat and other commodities, they wanted a a specific tonnage.
33:08
SPEAKER_02: China agreed to buy X tons of corn.
33:10
SPEAKER_02: Okay, like I said, they were never going to do that.
33:12
SPEAKER_02: Anybody that thought they were going to do that was just misinformed, to be honest with you.
33:17
SPEAKER_02: They want the flexibility to buy the other goods.
33:21
SPEAKER_02: That's the reason.
33:22
SPEAKER_02: I mean, all you have to do is look at last October, they agreed to buy 25 million tons of U.S.
33:27
SPEAKER_02: soybeans.
33:29
SPEAKER_02: Last May, this past May, they agreed to buy$17 billion.
33:33
SPEAKER_02: One has a volume on it because they need it, one has a value on it because it gives them flexibility amongst all the other ag products.
33:41
SPEAKER_02: And I think that gives you your answer.
33:43
SPEAKER_02: And yet we were still disappointed because we didn't get the things that we wanted to get and and see.
33:48
SPEAKER_02: I think the expectations were too high, to be honest with you.
33:51
SPEAKER_02: It's like the, you know, if I tell you about the greatest food I've ever eaten or the greatest movie I've ever seen, or the whatever, your expectations get so high that when you actually go and consume it, it doesn't live up to expectations.
34:04
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
34:05
SPEAKER_01: Well, now you distracted me a little bit.
34:07
SPEAKER_01: What what would you say is the greatest movie you've ever seen?
34:11
SPEAKER_01: Top of your head.
34:12
SPEAKER_02: You know, I'm not much of a movie guy, but yeah, more of a sports guy because there's always a winner.
34:17
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
34:17
SPEAKER_02: I really like winning.
34:18
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
34:19
SPEAKER_02: But greatest movie I've ever seen, Gladiator.
34:23
SPEAKER_02: Ooh.
34:24
SPEAKER_01: That is a good one.
34:25
SPEAKER_02: There's a winner in that one.
34:27
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
34:27
SPEAKER_02: I I could sit and watch Gladiator.
34:29
SPEAKER_02: There is.
34:30
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
34:30
SPEAKER_02: And then the other one is Christmas Vacation.
34:32
SPEAKER_02: I that one, you know, it's two completely different ends of the spectrum there.
34:36
SPEAKER_02: But like I said, I'm not much of a movie guy, but but Gladiator gets my juices flowing, I'm telling you.
34:41
SPEAKER_01: No, I would say you've got you've you've got excellent taste in movies.
34:44
SPEAKER_01: If you only got to see two movies in your whole life, I would say those are among the top five.
34:48
SPEAKER_02: Now, my list, if you hadn't if you had to make me do a top ten or something, I'm not sure I could get there because I I am just not a movie guy.
34:56
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
34:57
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
34:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
34:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
34:59
SPEAKER_01: No, that's okay.
35:00
SPEAKER_01: That's perfect.
35:00
SPEAKER_01: That's absolutely perfect.
35:02
SPEAKER_01: I uh in the lead up to this conversation, I thought I wanted to talk to you about the WOWSD October 9, but you suggested that instead we talk about Wednesday's grain stocks and small grains summary as as always a very astute suggestion.
35:18
SPEAKER_01: What what time does that come out?
35:19
SPEAKER_02: Is that 11th central?
35:21
SPEAKER_02: Yep, absolutely.
35:22
SPEAKER_02: 11th central, just like the the other grain reports.
35:25
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
35:25
SPEAKER_01: What's the uh what's the corn dog we're all hoping to find in this year?
35:29
SPEAKER_01: What's what's going to be the big takeaway?
35:31
SPEAKER_01: What are what are people looking for in this report?
35:33
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so this sets final carryover ending stocks for 2025-26 corn and soybeans.
35:39
SPEAKER_02: And so the expectation is that we'll see just a little bit lower than what we saw in the September Wazdi report for both corn and soybean stocks, old crop side of things.
35:49
SPEAKER_02: Now, we also get revisions to the 2025 production for both corn and soybeans, and therein could lie some of the surprise, so to speak.
36:00
SPEAKER_02: Now, the September 1 stocks, any of the quarterly stocks for that matter, have historically been very market-moving for the corn market in particular, but also to some lesser degree for soybeans, because analysts have just missed it broadly to the tune of 100 plus million bushels for corn.
36:21
SPEAKER_02: And so it produces a surprise.
36:23
SPEAKER_02: So we will see if there's a surprise or not.
36:27
SPEAKER_02: The history is that uh it leans a little bit heavier on the uh the bearish side of things for corn stocks than what it does on the bullish side.
36:37
SPEAKER_02: The expectation is that the crop size from last year will come down.
36:41
SPEAKER_02: History tells us that USDA has only revised the past six years on the previous year's corn production, and there haven't been major changes.
36:50
SPEAKER_02: The biggest change has been 71 million bushels.
36:53
SPEAKER_02: So if if those out there are looking for a huge change to last year's crop, probably not going to happen.
37:00
SPEAKER_02: And I'll just give you a little history lesson here that once USDA gets to its final yield and production numbers in January, so the annual production summary, which this year from last year's crop came in January 2026, they don't make many changes there.
37:15
SPEAKER_02: It's all done through the feed and residual category.
37:18
SPEAKER_02: And boy, they've been some people beating the drum pretty heavily on feed and residuals too high.
37:25
SPEAKER_02: And they all want to tie it back to animal consuming units, and that's a portion of it, but that's a small portion of it.
37:31
SPEAKER_02: Feed and residual use is a component of total supply.
37:35
SPEAKER_02: Last year, even if they reduced the crop size a little bit on Wednesday, we had record crop and record total supply.
37:44
SPEAKER_02: Therefore, your feed and residual use has to be record high.
37:47
SPEAKER_02: I don't care how many damn animals we got eating the corn because that's a small portion of it.
37:51
SPEAKER_02: That's a little history last week.
37:53
SPEAKER_01: Is that the uh the category that a guy we used to work with called the fudge factor?
37:57
SPEAKER_02: Yes, absolutely.
37:58
SPEAKER_02: Feeding feed and fudge.
38:00
SPEAKER_02: And it's basically what they can't account for.
38:02
SPEAKER_02: So they can account for what their final production and yields is through January.
38:06
SPEAKER_02: From that point forward, it's all done through that feed and residual category.
38:10
SPEAKER_02: And it's stuff that it's shrinkage in the bin, it's corn that falls or soybeans that we're talking corn right now, that falls through the cracks, that type of thing that they they can't account for.
38:21
SPEAKER_02: So they know what they had in January, and when we get to the end of the year on September 1, they know what they have, and they have to justify it some way.
38:31
SPEAKER_02: Well, we know what we had for exports, we can pin that one down, right?
38:35
SPEAKER_02: Food, seed, and industrial use.
38:37
SPEAKER_02: We can get pretty close to pinning that one down so that feed and residual and the residual component within that is the balancing act to get them to where they need to be on ending stocks.
38:48
SPEAKER_01: We haven't really talked about this very much.
38:49
SPEAKER_01: Maybe you don't want to talk about it, but I'm just curious.
38:53
SPEAKER_01: You you led a a major crop tour for several years, and it's it's been a few years since you've done that.
39:03
SPEAKER_01: As one who watches the market, as an analyst, I I wonder how you uh how you feel about it being on on the other side of that now.
39:12
SPEAKER_01: Did you miss going out on tour?
39:16
SPEAKER_02: So the everything that that went on during the week I necessarily didn't miss.
39:20
SPEAKER_02: I missed the people, I'll be honest with you.
39:22
SPEAKER_02: Opportunity to make great friendships and and stuff like that.
39:26
SPEAKER_02: Opportunity to see the crop across, you know, in whichever leg you're on, but four different states is pretty pretty incredible.
39:34
SPEAKER_02: And and so, yes, there are some things I missed.
39:37
SPEAKER_02: The the long nights or the long days and the switching of hats, you know, from being a crop scout to being tour leader to be in charge of the nightly meetings and all that stuff.
39:49
SPEAKER_02: You know, it aside from the showmanship that I have and stuff like that, you know, I I don't really miss that, to be honest with you.
39:57
SPEAKER_02: The older I get, I it just became harder to do year after year.
40:01
SPEAKER_01: Sure, sure, absolutely.
40:03
SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks for answering that.
40:04
SPEAKER_01: I was yeah, I've been kind of curious about that.
40:07
SPEAKER_01: By the way, something just popped up here, and I wonder how you're gonna respond to this because it it looks like crude oil has been fairly quiet, but all day long there have kind of been, or at least all afternoon, sort of little hints of maybe a deal between the U.S.
40:23
SPEAKER_01: and Iran.
40:24
SPEAKER_01: Reports of Iranian flexibility in nuclear talks are false now, apparently.
40:30
SPEAKER_01: But earlier on, there was talk that they're willing to to acquiesce.
40:35
SPEAKER_01: And in in exchange for easing some sanctions that they'd be willing to uh ease up on their nuclear aspirations?
40:43
SPEAKER_01: I just wonder if you have any thought because, bro, the the good folks in Iowa and other states burn a fair amount of diesel and at record prices here.
40:53
SPEAKER_01: I think we'd like to see some sort of resolution or at least something go the right way to help pressure diesel prices, at least for post-harvest activities.
41:03
SPEAKER_01: Any thoughts on Iran or diesel?
41:05
SPEAKER_01: Let me just give you a nice wide lane there for that one.
41:09
SPEAKER_02: Well, Iran, I'll start there.
41:10
SPEAKER_02: We are not going to get a deal anytime soon, in my opinion.
41:14
SPEAKER_02: I mean, let's be honest, they've been fighting since biblical times in the Middle East, and the fighting will go on.
41:19
SPEAKER_02: Now, this is a little bit different situation, but just keep that in the back of your mind with if you're thinking about uh some sort of a peace deal.
41:27
SPEAKER_02: And we've been up this road how many times where you know the US says or somebody else says, oh, Iran's willing to deal.
41:35
SPEAKER_02: And no, they ain't willing to deal.
41:36
SPEAKER_02: I mean, if they were willing to deal, we'd have a deal in place.
41:39
SPEAKER_02: We don't have a deal in place.
41:41
SPEAKER_02: So moving forward with that.
41:43
SPEAKER_02: Now, the Trump administration is trying to everything in its power to enact something to pull down diesel prices.
41:51
SPEAKER_02: I'm all for lower diesel prices.
41:54
SPEAKER_02: I will tell you that supply management and interference, whatever you want to call it, those policies don't work.
42:02
SPEAKER_02: Go back and look it up.
42:03
SPEAKER_02: The history will tell you that that's the case.
42:06
SPEAKER_02: So if if we're gonna try to meddle in the markets and stuff like that, short, you know, short term, maybe not convinced that prices would fall as much as what the Trump administration thinks that they will or they should, or that there would be that much more supply that would actually make it into farmers' hands when they need it at harvest time.
42:26
SPEAKER_02: So call me skeptical on that one as well.
42:28
SPEAKER_02: So I'm skeptical that prices will come down appreciably.
42:31
SPEAKER_02: I'm skeptical that Iran will agree to a deal.
42:34
SPEAKER_02: I'm just skeptical about that whole situation.
42:37
SPEAKER_01: Well, and it feels like an export, a diesel export ban altogether has uh some pretty significant opponents on Capitol Hill, doesn't it?
42:46
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and I like I said, I I don't think supply management and and supply interference are or uh works.
42:54
SPEAKER_02: I I think we can prove history on that one and and just that it doesn't work.
42:58
SPEAKER_02: So I don't think we will see a full ban, but who knows?
43:01
SPEAKER_02: I mean, there's let's be honest, the the policy side of things now moving into the elections is everything about trying to get enough votes for GOP from from the Trump administration.
43:13
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
43:13
SPEAKER_02: And so that that's what everything's gonna be focused on as we move through the next month or so here.
43:18
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
43:19
SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
43:20
SPEAKER_01: Okay, very good.
43:21
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna start moving toward the door here.
43:23
SPEAKER_01: Brian Grady from Comstock.comstock with 2Ms.com is where you can find more or comstock investments on YouTube.
43:34
SPEAKER_01: You got uh several friendly faces from the good folks over at Comstock on that YouTube channel there, including you, Brian Grady.
43:41
SPEAKER_01: You guys do a great job with that.
43:44
SPEAKER_01: But before we before we move on, you touched on it just a little bit, but let's go back to those corn and soybean guys.
43:53
SPEAKER_01: Just speculate just a little bit on post harvest price action.
43:57
SPEAKER_01: If there are closing thoughts that you want to make sure and get out there, we've we've talked about it already, but I don't want to don't want to miss anything.
44:05
SPEAKER_01: I want to make sure that we talk to the folks out there who are who are.
44:09
SPEAKER_01: getting those combines all greased up and and ready to go.
44:12
SPEAKER_01: What might your thoughts be?
44:14
SPEAKER_02: Well first have a safe harvest.
44:15
SPEAKER_02: I mean that's the most important thing, right?
44:17
SPEAKER_02: And the second one is that all of the fruits of your labor, everything you've done through the year to get to a crop, you only get paid when you sell it.
44:27
SPEAKER_02: So I'm not saying that you need to sell it right now or tomorrow or the next day or next week or whatever the case may be, but know your opportunities.
44:35
SPEAKER_02: When we started this growing season, most everybody was going to be underwater.
44:40
SPEAKER_02: The rally that we've had in the marketplace, excluding the past couple days here, has given you some an opportunity to now be profitable.
44:49
SPEAKER_02: Just keep that in mind.
44:50
SPEAKER_02: So it's hard to go broke if you can make a profit.
44:54
SPEAKER_02: So I'll I'll say leave it at that.
44:56
SPEAKER_02: Now I think that we will face harvest pressure as we go through the harvest season, especially with it being now compressed, pushed back in in some of these areas.
45:06
SPEAKER_02: So basis will move around to move the bushels where they need it to be.
45:11
SPEAKER_02: But from a futures perspective it's really hard to trade higher through harvest when you're getting the hedge pressure pressure.
45:20
SPEAKER_02: Farmer selling hedge pressure uh whether it be hedging by farmers or commercial firms that take on the grain.
45:26
SPEAKER_02: So I I think that we will face some harvest pressure over the next you know four to six weeks, whatever it takes to get the crop.
45:33
SPEAKER_02: After that, I think that corn does have some bullish fundamentals, especially as we tighten up the balance sheet for 2026-27.
45:41
SPEAKER_02: And so we could see another push to the upside in that let's call it November timeframe.
45:48
SPEAKER_01: Brian Grady from Comstock, I sure appreciate it.
45:51
SPEAKER_01: You mentioned it's uh drying out just a little bit over there in central Iowa, at least for now.
45:57
SPEAKER_01: I think we've got some significant rain headed for Kansas City thanks to some hurricane or something.
46:03
SPEAKER_01: The National Weather Service says the uh nor'easter will weaken tonight easing beach conditions and coastal flooding in the northeast though locally heavy rain will continue in parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England into Monday.
46:16
SPEAKER_01: Hurricane Nolo continues to bring strong winds and large waves to Hawaii and a multi-day rain event will return to the Four Corners region Monday expand into the south central U.S.
46:27
SPEAKER_01: by midweek Brian before I let you go just a couple of items of mild interest in 551 BC it's the birthday of Confucius Chinese teacher and philosopher here's a little quote from Confucius to keep in your pocket a great man is hard on himself a small man is hard on others ah little Confucian wisdom forest there Confucius say Confucius say indeed 1955 it's it's the first MLB World Series broadcast on color TV on NBC Yankees beat the Dodgers stupid Dodgers and finally a quick thought for the outdoors people out there if you only swap the slowest mosquitoes the fastest ones will survive and they'll get faster with every generation I just learned this Brian in Quebec they call them pick picks not mosquitoes.
47:26
SPEAKER_01: Apparently there's no word in Quebec for mosquitoes so they just call them pick picks now you know thank you thanks once again Brian very generous with your time with your wisdom it's uh it's great to talk to you I'm glad that you're doing well comstock.com and check out comstock investments on YouTube.
47:44
SPEAKER_01: Brian have a great day brother I sure appreciate you you betcha Davis thank you all right and also thanks to trade the news for a view behind the quotes look to trade the news news you can actually use use trade the news for usable news and may I of course direct you to agbol.com where you can dig deeper with Agbol Intel take the markets by the hoods with AgBull visit agbol.com or call 855737Farm for the details thanks for watching everybody thanks to Brian Grady Jed's back first thing in the ame to start off your Tuesday and then I'll be talking weather with Gary Leezak from weather 2020 I'll see you tomorrow afternoon for more Egg Squawking