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NFL Week 1 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: is our NFL Week one Tuesday episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. In a moment,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I'll be joined by my co host, Simon Hunter. We
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: have so many new listeners. Though before Simon comes in
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: so many new listeners, we got to do some housekeeping
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: about the episodes, about what we're doing that's new this season,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: and of course our one hundred and twenty thousand dollars
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: pickam contests. So first, every week four years, Simon Hunter,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Professional Better and I have been picking five games against
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: the spread for a big money season long pick Them contest.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: We spend Tuesday's episode doing an early look at our
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: leans making some early bets. We do as Simon says, bet,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: that's where everybody needs to make that bet right away,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: because we are convinced the line is going to move
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: against us. We are reviewing every single game on the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: NFL slate. We will do that at one five pm
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Eastern on Tuesdays during the NFL season. Thursdays, we will
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: talk about the picks that we are likely to put
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: in our season long pick them contest. This is the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: backbone of the show. We will narrow it down to
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: those five. We will also on Thursday give our big
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Balls bet of the week five games against the spread
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: for a pick them contest officially lock on Sunday once
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: we've seen all the lines move, usually make like one
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: or two changes on Sunday. So follow the phaves five
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. You want to see those
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: official five picks when they lock in. Two massive, massive
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: changes to this year's lineup. Number one, we are adding
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: a Sunday night recap episode, look ahead episode. We just
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: spent way too much time on Tuesday rehashing Sunday's pain.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: We're going to get that out of our system as
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: soon as we possibly can. We want to share the pain. Plus,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: we'll take a look if there's any early lines that
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: pequ ourt interest. So that means now going forward, three
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: shows a week, one five pm on Tuesdays, eleven am
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: on Thursdays, probably around seven thirty pm Eastern on Sundays,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: usually just ending just before Sunday Football. We want to
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: get in as much as we can about the late games.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Most important contest contest contest. The whole reason Simon and
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I started doing the show is to talk about the
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: five picks that we would put in the contest. People
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: love being able to hear what the picks are. Now
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: you can compete against me and Simon. We are hosting
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the Big Money Contest along with our partner at three
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: six five. We are giving away one hundred and twenty
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars in prizes for season long and weekly Pick
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Them contests. Compete against me and Simon all season long
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: and every single week. We're paying out the top ten
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: winners in the season long contest. First prize is getting
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: forty grand, second place gets ten grand. We are paying
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: thousands of dollars in prizes to weekly winners. First place
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: in the weekly gets fifteen hundred every single week. Here's
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: how you're going to sign up. Go to Favorites dot
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to sign up for free favorites dot
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. If you are listening to this podcast
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and haven't signed up yet, what is wrong with you?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell wants ten thousand participants. Let's not let Matt
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Mitchell down. Why listen to this pod if you aren't
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: going to sign up for a free contest?
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Final got what you to pull this airateer bulltrap all
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: right to your airbaite. Do you want to.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell? What am I missing? You're trying to browbeat people.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: We still want people to like us.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Yes, Chad, Sorry, I've been doing a lot of screaming
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: at people. Don't want to do that to our beautiful listeners.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: As a reminder to enter, go to Favorites dot actionnetwork
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: dot com and sign up. It should take like two seconds.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: It's just like your name, your email address, and your
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: betting state. It's very easy. This game is totally free
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: to play for all US residents twenty one or older.
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: You can play in every US state in Washington, DC,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: except for Rhode Island and Washington State. And if you're
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: mad about that and you're in Providence or Seattle, call
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: your senator. I don't know what to tell you. The
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: contest will cover regular Sunday Slate and Monday night football
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: games only, so no Thursdays, no special games, no European games. Yes,
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: you can change and update your picks. You just cancel
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: your entry and resubmit before one pm on Sundays. Yes,
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: the lines will change throughout the week. They are contest lines,
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: so they'll all be half point spreads, no pushes in
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: the contest. Your lowest two scores your two worst weeks,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: those will get dropped from your score after Thanksgiving week,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: which is week twelve. So listen, you lay an egg
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: or you're busy being a long hauld trucker right now.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: When you miss week one, sign up. Hey, that's fine.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: You gotta do what you gotta do. Sign up and begin,
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: and don't worry about your two lowest scores. We've also
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: had some folks identify some issues we ran into, like
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: the pick confirmation emails not including the point spreads. Thank you,
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: we are getting those fixts. Everything should be up and
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: running before Sunday. We also have a Frequently Asked Questions
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: page that is live and linked right in the contest,
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: so that page should answer all these questions and many more.
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: Please make sure everyone you know who's twenty one or
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: older signs up. Tell your brother, tell your mother, tell
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: your dentist, tell your mailman. Everyone has a chance. And
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: although it is not required to listen to the Favorites
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: podcast very soon in the weeks ahead, the tiebreaker category
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: will likely be revealed only on this show, So if
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: you want a chance to finish in the money both
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: season long and weekly. It will be very, very beneficial
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: to listen to the first couple minutes of this show.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Thanks and good.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Luck Favorites dotactionnetwork dot com go sign up for free.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: We want to thank our partners at BET three sixty
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: five our sponsors. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: is probably presented by Bet three six five of the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: world's favorites towards a brand sign up with promo code
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Action to get Bet three six five's exclusive sign up
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: offered that one dollar on any game get two hundred
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Must be twenty one or older.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or texts one eight hundred Gambler and
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: now without further ado, you can watch them live. Subscribe
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube page. He is my BFF,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: He is my companion, he is my campadre, he is
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: my co host professional Better Simon Hunter.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Hello, So woymen, finally made it Chad Week one.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Listen. I was thinking about this, said this to my
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: kid this morning. Today is the first day of the
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: rest of our lives. I am so excited. We're a
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: football betting podcast and we have football to bet on.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I don't want to waste a single second. Evan Abrams
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: has armed us with so many stats. Detroit visiting Kansas
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: City Thursday Night game. The spread is six and a half.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Money is on the Lions. Bets are on the Chiefs.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: This is a no brainer. This is a no freaking brainer.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: What do you say, Detroit.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Try We're not a Detroit fan for the division, but
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: we are a Detroit fan for Thursday Night. Right, so
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: all the people we're gonna say a lot of contradicting
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: stuff that what we send to the summer. It's all
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: broken down into five different seasons. Right, you got the offseason,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: you got the Draft, you got the regular season. Now
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: we've got the playoffs, and you have the super Bowl.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: So every season's handled differently. We're thrown out last year.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: So yeah, looking at this matchup, Chad, is Chris Jones
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: playing in this game? Chad, No? No? And as Chris
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Jones the most important player by far to the Kansas
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: City defense.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So important that Travis Kelsey is begging him to come play.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: Anyone with a computer can go online and look up
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: the stats. What this deference is against the run with
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Chris Jones on the field, and how this defense performs
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: with Chris Jones off the field against the run. What
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: is Detroit want?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Two?
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Do? They want to feed David Montgomery and a rookie
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: first round pick they just took this year. So you
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: have a team in Detroit that has an excelled offensive
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: line with two running backs they want to feed going
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: against a defense that was already weak against the run
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: and now without arguably when of the best run defenders
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: in all football, and Chris Jones. For this game, it's
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: exactly the reason why you've seen the money coming on Detroit.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: And this number has gone from seven to six and
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: a half, and now some books have it at six.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Most books have at six and a half. I think
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs will win, so I won't be touching the
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: money line for the Lions here. Like if you want
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: to put the Chiefs in a teaser, I get it.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: But for this show, when we bet straight bets, it's
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: a no brainer. It's one of those we would make.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: If it was still seven, it'd probably be a guaranteed
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: player for us in the contest. But they're not accounting
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: enough for how Chris Jones is missing this game. So, yeah, Jed,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: you knew right away we were going to love this game.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: And let me give you some stats. So Evan Abrams
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: puts together this great list of stats that are betting
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: relevant for every single game, and he'll do it all
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: season long. A couple of stats to think about Patrick Mahomes.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff. Who is the most profitable QB against the
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: spread over the past five years?
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: Jared Golf. I think he's covered every year.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff forty eight thirty two and two is the
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: most profitable quarterback in the NFL against the spread the
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: past five years, six and zero against the spread in
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Week one. Yeah, here's another stat that's important to know
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. Right, we always talk about like Patrick Mahomes
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: is not a great guy to bet on because the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: spreads for Patrick Mahomes are always so freaking high. It's
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: impossible for him to cover as a favorite in eighty
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: four games in his career forty one forty two and
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: one against the spread.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then another staff for pill remember is he's
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: the other way though, when the spread is below three,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: like when he is two and a half two or
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: an underdog. He is money. It's like everything points to
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: take in this number year with this Lion's team.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: All right. So in the next game, Cincinnati Bengals visiting
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns, it's another pro joe game. We've got
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the money on the Browns. We've
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: got fifty nine percent of the tickets on the Bengals.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: The Browns are two and a half point dogs. They
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: were three point dogs when this line opened many many
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: months ago. People who listened to us all offseason will
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: know that the Browns were one of the teams that
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: we immediately bet when Week one lines opened. Love the
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Browns in this spot, small dogs in weeks one and
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: two one to five and a half point underdogs sixty
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: thirty four and two against the spread since twenty eighteen.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: Brown's in the home spot. We got a home divisional
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: dog here. I was dying for a three. If Burrow
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: was healthy coming into this game, they would have gave
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: us us three for sure. So yeah, kind of sticks
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: for losing. I feel like what we should be getting
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: here is truly a three. But this is easily another
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: game this week. People. If you're new to the show,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: This is what me and Chad do. We're gonna make bets.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: You're gonna feel uncomfortable, you're gonna hate it, but you'll
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: see it's gonna work for you. The math backs it
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: up like this is one of these games. Me and
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Chad as soon as this number was played out, as
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: soon as it wasn't a pick, which it should be
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: a pick, we had to take Cleveland. Like if if
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: the Bengals here were plus three, we would love the
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: Bengals in this matchup. It's going to be a close,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: ugly game, and it's a divisional game. We're getting We're
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: getting plus two and a half of the home dog
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: in a divisional game. People don't realize yet, but they're
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: gonna see in this game. The Browns on one of
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: the best d lines in all football, and I think
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: they're gonna dominate both sides. I think they're gonna able
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: to run the ball. It will against Cincinnati. Then on
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: the other side, they're gonna be able to get after
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow really well in this game where Joe he
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: might be back, right, he might be back, but you
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: know it's gonna to be weird. Anyone has to come
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: back for an injury. That first game back is always
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a little weird, right, You're always a little nervous about
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: that leg. So the one of the things that makes
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: you know Joe and Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen. The
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: reason these guys are top three is their movement in
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: the pocket. The fact that they can run at any
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: point and get you those ten yards that first down.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Now we're taking that away from Joe two and a half, Chad,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: we'll take that. I already knew months ago this was
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: going to be a contest play for us, So no
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: doubt or play. I wouldn't make this, my Simon says,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: because my hope is Joe Burrow gets cleared, the public
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: money keeps flowing in on this Bengals team, and we
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: get that plus three. So if you don't want to
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: bet the two and a half yet, I got no problem. Wait.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: I think I'll either get up to the three or
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: it just stays at plus two plus two and a half.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: All right. Kevin Stefanski, by the way, another Evan Abrams special.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Of the one hundred and forty two head coaches in
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the NFL the past twenty years, Kevin Stefanski is the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: second least profitable ahead of just Joe Filden. We're banking
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: on the least profitable head coach against the spread of
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years. But I love the spot.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: How theology sontional? The Brown's been the last two seasons, right,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Guess what, Joe Burrow is one in three ats against
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: them and last two seasons. So for some reason, it's
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: a team he struggles against. And that's what happens. You
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: played divisional foe. Some teams just have a good read
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: on that player. Seems like the Brown's of a good read.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I'm Joe Burrow.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, look we've already locked one in. We
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: love the Browns plus two and a half Simon. Everybody
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: at Action knows I treat my body like a temple.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: That's the nicest thing people would say about my eating habits.
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  Speaker 1: No joke. We got these meals. They lasted thirty six
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• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Signing jef let me just stop yours. Travis Kelce hyper
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: extended his knee and his availability is in question for
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Thursday nights, so I just fired away. My phone's blowing
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: up right now. I just fired away on the lines.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: I'd grab it now if you can. If you can
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: get this people, six, grab it six and a half
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: if you can still find it. But this is a
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: huge deal like Travis Kelce if you learn it, look
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: at their third down success rate. He is the key
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: to that Chief's offense and staying on the field on
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: third down. So now they're without him and Chris Jones.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: This is a nightmare for the Chiefs to start their season,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: their campaign and repeat a Super Bowl champion. So Lively
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: on my phone is going crazier now. People.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is another reason why you have
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: to download the Action Network app and follow us in
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app. I bet the Lions plus six
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: and a half on Saturday while I was making college
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: football bets, I saw us sitting there and I'm like,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: why am I waiting? What am I waiting for?
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Here?
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who I believe
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: might be the worst team in the NFL this year
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: visiting the Minnesota Vikings. Not surprisingly, given someone like me
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: believing this, sixty three percent of the bets are on
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, but eighty three percent of the money is
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Buccaneers. Let me give you one
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: thing before we get to the analysis here. Todd Bowles
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: as a dog eighteen twenty seven and three against the spread.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: That's one hundred and fortieth out of all NFL coaches
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: in the past twenty years. I think this team is terrible, Simon.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think you want Baker Mayfield to be your quarterback.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I feel like it's a big number and I feel
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: like the professionals are betting on the regression for the
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. Personally, I want nothing to do with this game.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we can stay away from People will be shocked
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: to know, Well, my dumbass is all over the Saints
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: for this division, while everyone in their grandmam is telling
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: you to bet Atlanta for this division. The pros have
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: quietly been betting the Bucks that they love the fact
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: that it's Baker and this Bucks team in the sense
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: that Baker don't care. Baker gonna throw three picks and
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: he's like Brett Faive, he would just come out there
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: and keep slinging. And when you have Mike Evans and
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Chris Godwin, you know, I get it. I get what
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: the pros are betting here, but I'm with Chad like
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: I just I can't get behind this team. I don't
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: feel comfortable putting on my money on Baker yet in
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: this team, so people won't be shocked to see even
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: though the money in the betcher coming on the Vikings.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: I know plenty of pro groups have come in. They've
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: taken the seven, they took the six and a half,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: and they've taken the six. Now the bucks. So if
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: people don't know what the pros are betting, they're taking
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: the bucks in this game. I'm with Chad. I will
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: either bet the Bucks, maybe I'll tease the Vikings, but
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: no way is this gonna be one of the picks
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: for my contests. I just don't have a read on
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: either of these teams.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: This is an easy pass. Here's one cool stat though.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: The Vikings have the worst point differential among thirteen plus
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: win teams since the merger. They had a negative ten
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: point differential last year. The next lowest of thirteen plus
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: win teams the Houston Oilers plus twenty six in nineteen
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: seventy nine. All right, this next game is really tricky,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: really tricky. It's Carolina at Atlanta. The Falcons right now
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: are three and a half point favorites. What's interesting to
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: me is slight edge and the bets, so generally that's
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: the public for those who are listening for the first time.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: If I say bets, that means the public, That means
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: the Joe's, the Schmo's, the people who don't do this
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: for a living, who know less. They usually bet popular players,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: They usually bet popular teams. They usually bet in negative
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: ev situations, the pros. That's usually the money. That's the
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunters of the world. Those are the guys who
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: do this for a living. Have a little bit more
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: of insight. Bet with a little more of an edge,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Panther's slight edge, with the number of bets, fifty money
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: rolling in on the Falcons. I love the Falcons. I do.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I mean I got Bijon to lead the league in rushing.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: You know how I feel about Arthur Smith? Why do
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: I hate three and a half?
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: And I said, I'm not gonna let it scare me
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: off where I'm all for bad Math in Atlanta and
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Rader in this spot. But this is a great spot
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: right He is a second year quarterback, starting at home,
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: playing against a rookie quarterback and a coach that is terrible.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: An opening day historically has been horrible. Again, his guys
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: prepared and ready for opening Day. We have a great coach.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: So you know, I look at this matchup and I
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: think exactly what you're thinking, Chad. And I also think
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: if Burns doesn't playing this game, and Brian Burns is
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: gonna hold out and not play for Carolina in this game,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: even more of a giant edge to this Atlanta team.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: So not shocked this number open at two and a
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: half the pro started betting it. We kind of saw
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: that game where the Panthers really couldn't block anyone, their
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: starters couldn't block anyone. And you know, as soup as
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: it sounds, the number didn't move. It move from two
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: and a half to three. Now we've seen it take
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: another step up a three and a half. Just so
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: much money's coming to Atlanta because it is a good
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: spot to take Atlanta. Like you'll see in this show,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: I mainly like taking dogs weeek one. I just feel
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: like you're getting good value there. There are a couple
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: of Chalk favorites I'll take, and I'm with you, Chad,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe we'll force this one in. You don't
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: love it at three and a half, but I'm not
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: gonna let it scare me off like I would still
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: take it at three and a half. To me, Atlanta
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: feels like the right side here, especially they have a
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: three headed running back monster there, like they don't need
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: the quarterback in this game. Really, to me, this could
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: be low scoring, drag it out kind of win. And
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: I think they're the better team this matchup. So yeah,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like the Falcons here, So.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: We like the Falcons. I don't know if I like
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: it enough for the contest. I'm writing it down, but
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: I will be betting the Falcons at minus three and
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, all right, we got to talk about
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Indianapolis Colts. Colts are up
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: to five and a half right now. What's interesting here
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: is that the money and the bets coming in on
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: the Jags, and I feel like you and I are
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: gonna run counter to every single metric here. This is
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: the one we were slacking about this weekend. It bounced
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: to five this weekend because of the Jonathan Taylor stuff.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: You said, let's wait, it's now five and a half.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Every year we've been making money on the Jags visiting
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: or hosting the Colts and betting on the Jag and
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: that being the only game in which we really felt
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: comfortable betting on the Jags, and now all of a
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: sudden we get the reverse. But this feels like a
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: smash spot. The Colts have a decent defensive line, probably
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: one of the better defensive lines in the division. They
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: have good middle of the defensive good players in the
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: middle of the defensive line, to Forrest Bruckner is probably
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: one of the better interier defensive linemen in the league.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: And the Jags offensive line was already bad when Cambu
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Robinson was playing, and now he's not even playing because
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: of the suspension. So it feels like we have to
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: take the Colts here.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just I'm looking at it right now.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: This is a big balls candidate. I'm just saying it
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: Definitely, And like what you just talked about, I'm just
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: looking at it right now. It is up to a
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: lot of books at five and a half. So another
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: game that I was going to make. My Simon says,
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: but the way the money's coming in and the tickets,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: it could get the six. So the fear here, Chad,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: is what I talked about months ago, is we're backing
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: a rookie head coach and a rookie QB in Week one.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: So the fear is this coach doesn't know how to
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: prepare right and he doesn't have the team prepared right,
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: and it's a bad spot to step in. But what
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: makes me have to make this bet and Chad is
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: the Jags are the team. I mean, people not stop
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: and talking about them all summer. So now we're in
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: a spot to fade the team that has been hyped
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: up all summer. Yes, they might win it, but me
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: and Chad are gonna have to bet this and we
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: have to put on our money line round robin. It's
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: just the perfect spot of a home divisional jaw a
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: dog that's getting close to six. Now, that's that's crazy
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: to think about. So to me, most guys I talk
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: to make this number three, three and a half. We're
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: getting a ton of free points, and yeah, this is
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: going to be one of the biggest bet public games
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: of the week. They just they love the Jaguars that
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: they're the fun, exciting team, right, they have all the
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: fun new toys. Calvin Ridley's first game, man, that's that's crazy.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: I didn't know he was getting that high. I saw
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: it at five. I didn't know it was up to
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: five and a half. So the fact that it's getting
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: close to six now just wait. I just don't see
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: this number dropping too low. So it's looking really good
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: to me.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Here's another great stat You know, you and I both
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: love Doug Peterson, and we were all over the Jags
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: last year, and we like a lot about the Jags
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: this year. I like Trevor Lawrence to lead the league
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: in touchdown passes. But Doug Peterson is a coach whose
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: teams get better as the year gets on September to
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: November of twenty nine, thirty seven against the spread, thank you,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams December on twenty four and fifteen. He is
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a late season coach. He's one of those savvy veteran
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: coaches who understands the league. Simon, you talked about their
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: five sort of seasons and ten polls for the NFL.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: The in season ten polls are kind of built the
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: same way, and Doug Peterson is a guy who understands
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: how to get his team motivated for the latter half
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: of the year. We both believe the Jabs are going
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: to run away with this division. I think Trevor Lawrence
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: will be a pro bowler he'll step up into that
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: superstar category.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: Have you shot? Though?
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: We do because we love Mike Rabel and we love
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: that defense. But I think at the end of the
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: year it's going to be the Jags division to lose.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, I'm calling it right now, executive decision.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Forty nine Ers visiting the Steelers. Steelers are two and
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: a half point home underdogs. We got fifty nine percent
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: of the bets coming in on the Niners, eighty four
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the money coming in on the Steelers. Can
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: I give you a couple of stats about Mike Tomlin, okay, please?
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: The Steelers fifty three thirty and four as an underdog
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: under Tomlin. That's sixty four percent. He is the most
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: proper football coach as a dog in the past twenty years. Rob, Rob,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin, Matt Mitchell, play the hits, rip it what
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: a raw Ron, Mike Tomlin, Spot we win the game.
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: We just drove of bodies right here today. Run y'all
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: game to day.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Steelers as a home dog under Tomlin sixteen four and
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: three and by the way, fourteen to nine straight up.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: So now we get the overhyped forty nine Ers coming
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: to play the Steelers at home with Brock Purty back
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: from injury, with Nick Bosa still holding out, not knowing
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: what his status is going to be, against a team
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: with TJ. Watt, who, by the way, when TJ. Watt
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: is playing, Steelers were eight and two last year straight
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: up and against the spread. Like of course, the executive
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: decision has to be take the Pittsburgh Steelers as home dogs.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: Are you heavy on the wat killed? It's simply decision. Yeah,
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: and it's it's a public dog. But we have to
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: take it. Do we love it? Mainly because Nick Bosa
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: isn't out, No, but that is a big factor, the
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: fact that he won't be in this game. We know
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: that as good as you want to make this defensive
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: front for the forty nine Ers, it all goes with
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Nick Bosa. Like he's the one that's getting the double
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: teams and fighting through that and still getting sacks. He's
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: just the game wrecker. And you take that away and
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: you go on the other side and bring in TJ.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: Watt fully healthy like last year he just wasn't healthy.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Even when he came back, he said he was playing hurt,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: so I didn't even know that stat. The fact that
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: he was eight and two fighting through those injuries with
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: this team ats it's it is very public. There's there's
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: two really public dogs this week. This is one of them.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: I'm with Chad. We loved it at plus three, we
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: still love it at two and a half. I make
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers a one a one point favorite,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: So I do. I do think they'll win this game,
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: but I think it's going to be really close. And
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: the fact that you're taking Nick bo so away, I
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: probably would move it to a picket at this point.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: It's just such a big deal. The fact that he
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: won't be in this game even if he signs a
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: contract right now, right that means it gets into camp
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: by what tomorrow Wednesday, and then he's on an airplane
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: Friday in Pittsburgh. Like there's just if anyone could get
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: away with it, it's him. But they're not gonna throw
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: him in there and play a full game. They just won't.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: They're not that dumb with an organization. He'll be part
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: time even if he signs this week, which is a
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: big deal to me. So we both we both love
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett. We think I'll take another step, and we
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: do believe in Tomlin and these kind of spots as
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: a home dog. So another game you'll get used to
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: listening to the show. The Pittsburgh was good to us.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: Last year, we took Pittsburgh and a lot of these
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: kinds of spots and they were really good to us.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Chad, no no brainer. I love that you
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: made this one of your Plays's just we were gonna
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: be on Pittsburgh months ago and we still are at
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: this point.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: We were on the Steelers at plus three. I still
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: like him at two and a half. I probably would
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: have avoided it if not for the Nick Bosas situation
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: and then going through's notes and seeing what he added
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: about the Steelers, and he just put another one in
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: the chat that the Steelers are profitable as a dog
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: on the money line each of the past six years
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: and eight of the past nine years. Also, I love
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett. I love George Pickens like I think pick
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: is just a baller, like I love his attitude. I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: love him on the team. They just feel like a
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: really fun team to bet on, and I'm going to
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: look forward to watching them beat up on the Niners
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: because I'll probably put a little bit of a taste,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: maybe a quarter of a unit on the money line.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be our money line around. Robin already knew
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: that one.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Oh totally. Yeah, all right, here's a game we can
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: basically skip from my opinion, unless you feel differently. Arizona
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: at Washington. The Commanders have moved up to seven. Everybody's
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: on the Commanders because Colt McCoy was cut. Kyle Murray's
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: not playing you and I actually liked the Cardinals of
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: plus six during the off season, even though we knew
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray wasn't going to play. We like the idea
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: of Colt McCoy without McCoy. I don't know what I'm getting.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: This is a pass to me. Should Sam Howell be
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: a seven point favorite at home in his first opening
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: day NFL start?
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And we definitely got caught. But again it wasn't
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: like we bet big into it. But I was saying thought,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: as you Chat, I thought, this is way too many points.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: We'll take the veteran quarterback in Colton McCoy. And now
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: it's it's completely gonother way where you know the fact
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: this is up to seven, Chat, I know you say
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: you don't want to take it or talk about it. Really,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: I gotta do it, Like this is one of these
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: games I have to take Arizona and the seven. I mean,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: they're just it's gonna be a fun bet where we
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: won't play in the contest, right, and this one needs
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: I'll probably lose forty five to nothing. And I feel
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: like people be like, oh, what a stupid bet. But
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: if you go over time and you take these bets, right,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: which is Washington's gonna be the most bet team, they'll
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: be the most teased team. I mean, I see the
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: first first game that popped in my head when I
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: saw this matchup was when Tampa Bay went to No.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Orleans and played against the Saints Drew Brees Sean Payton,
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: and they were a fourteen point favorite and they lost
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: outright to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tampa. Because Tampa at that time,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: everyone's like they're tanking. They're the worst team of football.
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: They're gonna tank for Winston or whatever it was at
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: that time. Football is really stupid people. That's what I'm
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: trying to explain to you. Guys, like that team Tampa,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: they might only want two more games the rest of
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: the year, but that Week one they upseted that Saints team.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: Because there's a rhythm to football and there is no
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: rhythm yet. Right it's week one, things are weird, people
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: get really tense, and Chad just nailed it. This is
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: this kid's first start for Washington at home. They've sold out.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: The fans are coming back because they fucking hated that owner.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: They got a new ownership group in there, so they're
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: showing out. It's gonna be allowed. It's gonna be a rowdy.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: I gotta take Arizona and it's disgusting. So I'm not
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: gonna make us take it because there's other games I
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: like more. But if you want to bet what the
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: pros are betting, this is what they're doing again. If
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: you want to tease Washington, totally get it. I can
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: see them winning this game. But if you're going to
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: take the number, you have to do it. You have
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: to take the seven, and just know there's like you
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: and four other guys in the entire Great State of
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: World of America and everywhere else holding that ticket because
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: no one's betting Arizona. That's kind of why you have
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: to make this bet. It's just you're playing with the
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: book here and saying the public has overinflated this line.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: It should still be six. Probably the fact that it's
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: alway up to seven seven and a half now, Chat,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: It's just it's one of these bets. I'll hold my
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: nose and I'll bet it, all right.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: So here's the one reason why we now have to
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: bet Arizona. In the Action Network out the Commanders are
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the most public side.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: Wow. Yeah, so that again, that's week one. You don't
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: want to be that team. You don't want to be
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: the most bet side. Last year, I believe it was
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: the Colts at minus eight. They tied Houston, so they
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: went to overtime. So if you had a Houston ticket
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: at eight and a half, you already won your bet
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: going it over time. It was a beautiful thing. So yeah,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: it feels like one of those spots once again.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: All right, next game. We talked about the Titans a
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: little bit in the in the AFC South and when
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: we were doing the division previews, I would say the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Titans and the Saints, and we did this with Raybon
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: and Brandon Anderson. One of our last episodes of the previews,
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Raybon's favorite bet was the Titans over seven and a half,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: and your favorite bet was the Saints. I can't remember
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: if it was the Saints to win the division or the.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Saints seems to be the ones in the NFC.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Is twenty one like a long shot? That on that?
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: So this this match of two teams that we've sort
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: of been talking a lot about in the run ups
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: of the season. We now know Ryan Tannah isn't going
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: to be traded. We know that Mike Vrabel as an
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: underdog we love, we absolutely love him. He's twenty and
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: nineteen straight up, twenty three and fifteen one against the spread,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: including twenty two and nine and one when the spread
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: is three or higher. We got that spot. Everything says,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: take Mike Vrabel and the Titans. Is that contest play?
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Are you are you? Are you comfortable with the Titans
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: against the Saints right here?
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: I would because we already have one public dog in
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: the contest and the same the Steelers. So I can't.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: I can't do Tennessee, which is another biggest public dog
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: of the week. Every everyone's taking them. Most pros have
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: this game at Saints minus three, minus three and a half.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: So I think the thing it is where it should be.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: So to me, there's not much to talk about here.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: It's just two teams. We have high expectations for this season.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: It's a good number. Like the books, they made it
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: a good number. They're gonna get a lot of public
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: money on Tennessee. For what I just talked about. I
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: think most people view them as the same level as
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: the Saints. So yeah, that's that's one of the most
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: public sides this week is going to beat Tennessee three
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: and a half four. It's gonna I mean, everyone's gonna
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: betting that.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to our friends at game Time, Simon.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I know that you know the fastest growing ticketing app
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: in the United States. It's our sponsor, game Time. I
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: love Game Time for two reasons. One because they sponsor
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: the show. Number two, I actually use game Time Dubai tickets.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows that. I talk about it on every show.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: including pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: in Game Time right now from my house here in Connecticut.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: What can I do well? I can definitely go see
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: the New York Yankees for less than ten bucks this week.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: I can also go see the New York Liberty WNBA
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: super Team for less than thirty five bucks. No matter
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: where you live, download the game time app Get out
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: have some fun this week. Sweat your bets live and
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: in person. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: app and in our code favorites for twenty dollars off
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowes price, get wrong teed. This one's juicy.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: This one is juicy. The Houston Texans visiting the Baltimore Ravens.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: This is the biggest biggest spread of the week. We
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: were in danger of not having any Week one double
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: digit spreads. We now have it. Baltimore Ravens at home
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: ten points against the Texans. Sign me up, Sign me
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: up for something gross, sign me up for something uncomfortable.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Sign me up for the Houston Texans plus ten.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Simon says, Houston plus ten.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Do it, we do Sion's I love it.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: This one's stay at ten by even Thursday. I think
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: this time will be back to nine and a half nine.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked at got to ten, But at the same time,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: maybe it's because Houston didn't look so great in the preseason.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: But I'll try to be quick on this one just
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: because it's it is very simple. We have a Ravens
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: team who just implemented a totally new offense. They have
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: not had anything coming out of camp that sounds like
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: it's been amazing, right. That said, there's been a lot
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: of struggles earning the new offense. Lamars had struggles pushing
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: the ball down the field. Houston has a lot of
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: a lot of things that aren't great. Right. They got
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: a new a new coach, they got a rookie quarterback
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: on the road. I would honestly usually just stay away
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: from that. But the fact that it's gotten to ten
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: now I have to take that number. It's just it's
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: too inflatid. This Ravens team. I do think they are
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: really good. Got them in the playoffs. It's just a
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: team that will be performing well this season if Flamares
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: stay's healthy all season. They have a ton of talent.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: But in this spot, that's so many points for a
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: team that's going a whole new route offensively. So to me,
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: the fact they have questions that with Zay Flowers, they
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: got questions with Odell, we got Mark Andrews just popped
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: up on the injury list. These are all things the
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: factor're in here. Okay, that's that's a big deal for
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: this Ravens offense. So uh yeah. My biggest thing here
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: is Chatty's touched on. We take double digit dogs in
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: week one, so we're lucky enough to get one. I
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: didn't think the books will get us there. They did.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: It's for a good reason. You're betting on a rookie
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: head coach on a rookie QB on the road in
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Baltimore week one. But that's a ton of points in
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: the NFL. This ain't college in the NFL. Being a
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: double digit favorite maybe week seven, eight, Sure, that's fine.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: In Week one, that's too many points for so many
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: question marks with his Ravens team. So yeah, no brainer.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Bet Simon says, take the ten.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Houston Texans plus ten. Since two thousand and two,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Ricky head coaches fifty six thirty nine and two. That's
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent against the spread in their first ever
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: road game. Vodes well for Damico Ryans. That's from Chris Raybon.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: You're right, this isn't college football. Ten is huge. This
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: is in Oklahoma minus thirty six. Shout out Mike Calabreeze,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: who gave that away. I'm big bets on campus. I
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: cash that ticket, all right?
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Then, stucky man, he gave us Bama. Were they minus
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: forty minus thirty nine? That one hit two.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: That's what we do.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: Let's go get you.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: We break it down and we talk about winners. Here's
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: a game that worries me. We know we love the Bears.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: They've been one of our favorites all season long. They
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: have been darling. The Super Bowl odds cut in half
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: justin Fields Lois odds for a Bears player to win,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: MVP s and Jay Cutler this numbers dropping. Was it
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: two and a half Bears minus two and a half,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Now it was Bears minus one. It's kind of a
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: pass for me. I think that there's too much unknown
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: on both sides, and I think too much hype for
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: the Bears and still so much unknown about Jordan. Love
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: that knowing how much is on the board that we
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: still love. I'm walking away from this one.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's a good job by you. Chat. I
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: was worried're gonna be a little too emotional. Let's just
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: stay away because I'm with you AMPTI bias to this
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: one where I want to take the Bears. I'm getting
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: a good number on the Bears now, but a lot
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: of pros like Green Bay. The public loves green Bay
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: in this spot just because everyone's taking out this division.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: They think Jordan will love even though he's not shown anything,
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: they think he is that guy. So you know, to me,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: this is like thirty years of you know, the Bears
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: have been the little brothers and they are finally This
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: is like the moment where the next ten years will
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: be the era of Justin Fields and glory for the
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Bears team or they kind of fall lose this game.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: All Bears fans are just crushed and Jordan Love now
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: is right back to what they were dreading on scening,
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: which is another good quarterback in Green Bay. So as
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: far as futures go and just the next ten years
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: five years for franchises, this is probably I mean, it's
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: stupid because it's Week one, but this sets the whole
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: tone for the whole season for Green Bay and for
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: the Bears. Like the winner of this that's the cat up,
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: like that shoots you off to maybe win the division
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: upcoming season. You lose this game. That's truly I punched
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: the gut to them and their entire fan bases because
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: both fan bases are losing their minds right now, like
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: they're both can't stop defending Jordan Love, can't stop defending fields.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm glad checking with senses. We're not forcing
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: the Bears in here. We'll bet, we'll bet the Bears,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: but we'll just we'll watch from a distance.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're not. We're not forcing a bet on a
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: team that lost seventh straight home games to end the season,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: lost ten consettive consecutive games to end the season, and
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: finished third three and fourteen last year. Let's get some perspective,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: all right. Besides, the next game involves your Philadelphia Eagles,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: whom you love, and the New England Patriots, and we
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: have been talking about this game all season. Some one
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: of us got an itchy tricker finger on Saturday and
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: bet the Patriots at plus three and a half. The
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: line is now four in a lot of places, which
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: bums me out, But we love the Patriots here like
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: this is this is a game we're gonna have to
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: talk about on Thursday as we get closer to the contest,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: because I think it's going to be hard to keep
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: it out.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely going to be in there. It's it's
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: one of those spots where it was dropping and the
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: news came out that the right tackle for the Patriots
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: is going to miss this game most likely. That's a
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: big deal. Like, you know, if they're right tackles out
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: and they're lef guard is out, that's a huge deal
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: when you're going to get in some defense that had
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: seventy sacks last season. So makes sense how the line
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: moved up to four. I can tell you there's not
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: a professional in the world that's not taking the Patriots
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: in this game. It's just it's one of those games
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: where the line came out in May. It was one
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: of the first bets I made. It's just it's just
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: really easy. Sometimes our job's really easy. Usually it's hard,
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: But in these kind of spots, it's probably the least
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: amount of work I had to do in a game,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: just because I knew I was already going to get
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: a bunch of points of value, just because the Eagles
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: went to the Super Bowl last year. And that's how
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: the public bets. Right. The public is looking at this
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: Eagles team as if this is Week ten and twenty
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: twenty two, without realizing it's Week one in twenty twenty three.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: It's totally irrelevant how dominant good the Eagles were last season.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: This is a team that has a new OC, they
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: have a new DC, they have a bunch of young
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: guys starting for them now on defense. That's a big deal.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: Like that's just not throw it out right because I
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: think if you put these two teams, same exact teams
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: and they played in Week ten, this would be a
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: totally different line this season. But because it's Week one,
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: the public is just in love with this Eagles team.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is probably gonna be on our Foxhole Bets,
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: Big balls bet. This is gonna be one of them
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: on Thursday, just because most people I talked to this
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: is a hard bet for them the stomach taking this
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: Patriots team against this Eagles team that they were just like,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: this is the best offense in the league. Hurts is
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be a top three, top four quarterback this season. Like,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: it's just hard for them not to take the Eagles
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: here where I mean, you were just taking the value chat.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: That's why I love making these kind of bets where
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: it's like We're getting an extra two two and a
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: half points of value here for doing nothing Like this
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: Patriots team only got better this offseason by Adam Bill
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: O'Brien by really getting this defense strengthened up, and the
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: old line should be better than it was last year.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: So again, that's the way right now is they have
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: injuries to the O line, but that's why we're getting
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: that extra point. So plus four, Yeah, gotta take the Patriots.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: I'm really proud of a Simon. We're passing on the Bears.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: Where betting against the Eagles. We're professionals, Okay, we don't
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: get emotional. We're like, we're like Gordon get Go's. We
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: don't get emotional about stocks. We play the number that's
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: in front of us. That's what we do. Ram Seahawks
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: rams on the road. It looks like they're about plus
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: five and a half plus five pretty evenly. Split bets
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, money on the Seahawks slightly. I see
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: zero advantage in this game given all that we have
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: on the board. This is kind of a pass for me.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at I'm looking at six games already, seven
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: games already that I know we want to talk about
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: I don't see any yet.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: Sure, Yeah, so say I had Travis kelsa great as
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: my number two most important player for the third down
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: success rate. Number one is Cooper Cup. So all my
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: Rams futures are dead. My over under bet on the
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: Rams is dead. It all died before these seasons then started.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: Because Cooper Cupp he must be in real, real pain
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: with his hamstring if he went all the way to
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: Minnesota and Minneapolis to get this thing checked out, like
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: the fact that he left California because he is a
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: specialist in a different state. That's a nightmare. And it's
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: week one, so yeah, I'm pissed it. It's one of
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: those teams where if he was right and Stafford was
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: right and Aaron Donald's right, this team is way better
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: than people were receiving them to be because those guys
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: are also talented. You take one of them away, there's
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: no team that could afford to lose one of their
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: three big stars than they're Rams, because it's literally those
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: guys and a bunch of junk. So yeah, just an
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: absolute nightmare if you're a Rams believer this season. Cooper Cup,
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think he plays in this game like most
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: guys are talking saying he probably won't play next week.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Togither week three is when you expected to be back.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: So I've already bet on this game. I've already taken
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: the Rams, but I'm not putting any more money on it.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: I'll just I'll let it ride. I'm not buying out.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I still think I'll be a close divisional game. But
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Chad's right, this won't be in our contest.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: No Raiders on the road at the Broncos. Look, everyone's
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: anticipating a lot from Sean Payton. Everyone's excited. We love
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: the idea of the Broncos over eight and a half
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: wins the money though, coming in on the Raiders in
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: this game, I don't have a strong feeling about it.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I would lean Raiders because of what you just said
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: about the Rams too. Like divisional game, they tend to
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: be pretty close. Not a strong feeling though.
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Broncos just because I think it's
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: a coaching mismatch. I just think Sean Payne so much
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: better than Josh McDaniels. He'll have his offense so prepared
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: for this game. And yeah, Chad's right though, this is
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: one of these This is one of these games. We
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: just all playing the contest like this doesn't make my
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: top ten biggest bets. It's just yeah, I'll take the Broncos.
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: I'll take Sean Payne here. But no real feel for it.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: But not shock Vegas is getting a lot of the
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: money Chad just talked about there. It's a divisional dog
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: with two teams that no one's really sure about. Like
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: there's just total unknowns with Jimmy Garoppolo, total unknown what
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson will be like in this new offense. So
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad, Let's pass on this one.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Dolphins visiting the Chargers Dolphins plus three ton of money
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Dolphins, most of the tickets coming
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: in on the Dolphins. They're a little bit of a
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: public darling right now because of what they did in
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: that offense. Obviously there's a lot to be seen for
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: how Tua can protect himself. Man, it's weird to me
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: that so much money Simon is coming in on the Dolphins.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think this is a contest play for us,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: but something you know, part of the pun fishy by
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: that much money coming in on the Dolphins against the
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Chargers team that we kind of like.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if it gets a three and a half, maybe
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: they'll give me some pause and maybe I will take Miami.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: But you could have got Chargers two and a half.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: Still a couple of books, you can still get it.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: That's the play. You're taking the better team at home
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: under a field goal. We already saw if you go
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: back and watch a tape from last year the Chargers
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: defense wise, they matched up really well against what this
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Miami team likes to do on offense. They totally shut
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: them down last season. So you know he's been hearing
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: about it all week. We'll see if Mike makes the
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: adjustments here for the Dolphins. But you know McDaniels has
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: He definitely has a lot of weapons at his disposal
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: here consider the Chargers. So it's one of those where
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: this will be the biggest bet overs of the week.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna be on this over. Yeah, if you can
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: get Chargers two and a half, I take it. If
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: you can get Miami later in the week at three
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: and a half, I take that too. It just feels
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: like this is a three point game. So yeah, Chad,
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: you're right, it's not a play for us. But if
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: you're looking for what side. I'll be on. I'll be
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: on the Chargers at two and a half three.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: We got to get to the primetime er. Here's an
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: interesting piece of trivia I for you with the Dallas
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Cowboys visiting the New York Football Giants as what is
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: it about three three and a half point favorites depending
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: on where you see it. Dak Prescott with Aaron Rodgers
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: leaving the Packers, is now the longest tenured quarterback for
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: his team, longest tenureds starting quarterback for his team in
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Dak Prescott, it honest to god, feels like
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: he just started playing yesterday and now he is the
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: longest tenured starting quarterback. Look, you love the Cowboys this offseason.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: The only reason we give the Giants any credit as
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: a team in the year in which they just came
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: off more wins, more one score wins than anybody in
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: history is Brian Dable. And like, we believe that Brian
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Dable as a coach can mask so many of the
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: issues this Giants football team has in a way that
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: will help them impede regression that we've seen from so
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: many teams in this spot, I kind of like the
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: Giants if I can get half a point here.
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it is one of those where I've heard
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: from playing a cowboy, betters and fans where it's like
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: we own the Giants, stay away from this this team here,
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: and I just can't help it. I think Chad just
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: talked about it a little bit where it's like when
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: I look at my ratings, I have Daniel Jones just
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: ahead of Dak, and I get it. They love Dak
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: and the fans really believe in him. But come on, people,
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: Chad just talk about this. Man is the longest ten
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: year quarterback NFC. He's never been to an NFC championship team, NFL, NFL.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: That's even crazier. It's one of those where I can't
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: just throw out the game against Rock Party, like he
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: lost to a seventh round pick in the playoffs last year.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: At quarterback he got out played by Rock Party in
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: the playoffs last year. Like, those are real issues. So
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: we'll see if they if the adjustments they make right,
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: if getting rid of Kellam Moore is what fixes this team.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: But from this standpoint, we got to take what I
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: think is the better quarterback and the better coach. At
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: three and a half Opening night at home in prime time.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: This is one of those where we might end up
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: making it one of our five, but we have the
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: next game we're talking about is definitely in one of
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: our five. So that's why I don't know if I
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: want two primetime games in our picks here, But man,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: I do love that three and a half. That's another
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: one where I can see the public joining me, Like
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: it feels like the public most people think they'll come
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: in on Dallas. I think most of them will take
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: the Giants at night at three and a half. It's
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: just it's just a good number in a divisional game
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: at home opening night. So yeah, it's it's hard not
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: to take that three and a half.
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a phenomenal chase game. Everybody who blew,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: who blew their stack their money stack on the Ravens
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: or the Eagles or the Niners is going to be
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: going all in on the Cowboys as road favorites in
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: the division in primetime on Sunday night. Dude, I've never
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: been more convinced about the Giants than I am in
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: this in this second right now, all right, it's scary, right,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: all right? What did you and I say as soon
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: as Aaron Rodgers signed with the Jets f A d E.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: The j E T S Jets Jets Jets, Bill's on
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: the road under a field goal in the Division Monday
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Night Football Aaron Rodgers' debut. Oh my god, Matt Mitchell
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: is going to have his gloved hands. For those who
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: are new to the show, Producer Matt Mitchell from the
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Paris of Western New York, the Rochester Buffalo region. Such
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: a Bills fan. He likes to eat wings with rubber
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: gloves because he's kind of crazy. He doesn't like to
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: get his hands dirty. I'm thinking about him watching this
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: game with the Bills is two and a half point favorites,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: and how is he going to feel when it's over?
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: Simon, He he hates this number. He hates this game,
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: and for good reason. It's the definition of a trap.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: Like you know, we always joking about getting the script.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: This is what the script says. The script says, the
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: Bills will lose this game. All week, we will hear
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: about how great Aaron Rodgers is, how great the Jets are.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, Espin will be going ape shit talking about
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: the Jets all week, and then we'll get into a
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: little gift the following weekend, we'll catch Dallas at home
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: against his Jets team. They'll blow them the f out.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: The Bills will come home play the Raiders at home
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: next week, they'll blow them the f out. So people already, people,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be pissed. But we're gonna be on the
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: Bills next week, Gonna be on Dallas next week, this week,
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: fading both of them, like this is I am praying, Chad,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: this gets the three. Please give me this three. I'm
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: dying for it to get there. I've been annoying the
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: shit of all these bookies all week, just saying give
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: me the three. You know you're gonna have the three
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: by Monday, Just give me it now. Why are we
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: wasting time at the two and a half. Any when
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: I talk to it's like four to one, five to one.
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: The money, the tickets, all of it on the Bills.
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: It's just this is how the NFL does it, Like
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: these these kind of games. The matchup, it's it's literally
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: on the trenches here, and that's where we're gonna get
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: the advantage. Where the Jets D line couldn't have asked
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: for a better matchup against this Bills O line. That's
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: the Bills only Achilles Hill is their offensive line, So
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: love that matchup. On the flip side, the Bills have
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: no pass rushers. Von Miller isn't in this game. Like
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: that's the key here where the Jets weakness is their
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: O line. There's nothing to attack it here on this
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: Bill side. I mean, it's just a big deal the
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: fact that he's not in this game. So yeah, no brainer,
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: this is gonna I like, again, I love that Giants number.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: I love this number even more. I just love the
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Jets defense in this spot. I love Aaron Rodgers offensively
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: in this spot. Give me the Jets to, you know,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: be the team that everyone talks about all next week
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: and then gets totally blown out by the Cowboys the
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: following weekend. It's just sometimes it's too easy. It just
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: feels like it's setting up that way.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Is it an amazing how that happened?
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: We've been talking about how much we hate the Jets
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: all season long, and in Week one we're like, of
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: course we're taking the Jets. This is a no brainer
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: in our list. Right now, I'm looking at our list
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: of games that we've sort of pegged. I'm looking at
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: the Browns plus two and a half. I'm looking at
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: the Colts plus five and a half hoping it'll go up.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at who else am I looking at the
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: Steelers plus two and a half, the Cardinals plus seven.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Simon says, is the Texans plus ten. By the way,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: the exact decision is the Steelers plus two and a half.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Simon give me a backhanded compliment, saying it was a
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: public dog if he would take it. Anyways, Patriots plus
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: three and a half, Giants plus three and a half.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: We're hoping to get a plus three on the Jets.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: What's interesting to me is I left out the Falcons
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: there at minus three and a half because that's the
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: only favorite we.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: Have, and we might do it because of our rule
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: is we try to always force in one favorite. We
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: should go one favorite, four dogs, and that's been really
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: good to us so that they might make the cut.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: But even looking at the whole board, like the favorites
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: we liked, you like the Broncos, I kind of like
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: the Raiders there not always it's.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Hard to find a favorite. Week one jet out, Like,
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: I know you're probably gonna go through it. There's probably
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: three favorites I like, it's just really tough to find them,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: just because the public overrates what happened last year so much.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Dude, there's two favorites that you like, it's the Falcons
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: and the Broncos. Other than that, there is not a
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: single favorite that you like. And I only like one
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: of the Still yeah, but still, we don't want know,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: you know, we don't love them. I don't like and
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: I don't like the Raiders enough to make the Broncos
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: Raiders our first bet off. It's too early right now.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: I just want us to be friends. Okay, reminder, quick reminder,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: I just recaped the games. These are the games we're
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: going to focus on on Thursday Show. On Thursday Show,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: what will happen is over the next forty eight hours,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: we're going to get to get a bunch of calls
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: from other people in the industry who are critiquing or
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: supporting a lot of the lines that we talked about.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: Some of the games that we talked about, they might say, wait,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I love this game. You guys missed it. Some of
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: the games that we talked about that we love, they
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: might say, hey, we hate this. That'll be sharp calls.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: We will get to our foxhol Bet, which is the
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: bet where Simon and I are alone. We'll get to
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: our big balls bet. I think we got a pretty
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: good feeling. Well, that's going to be and so, and
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: we'll sort of narrow it down to our final five. Listen,
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: as I've told you a thousand times, we are doing
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: a massive, massive contest. Everything we're talking about, the five
• 57:41
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• 57:45
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• 57:51
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• 58:02
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  Speaker 1: one Finally got. It was good to go through those games.
• 59:02
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• 59:06
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• 59:10
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