Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 63 - 6/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 63 - 6/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 63 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena.
• 0:38
  Guys, we got a lot of baseball to talk about today, but first
• 0:41
  of all, we got after it last night.
• 0:45
  I tell you what, guys, when you're betting on sports,
• 0:47
  sometimes it's a grind. One day you're up a unit, 1 day
• 0:50
  you're down a unit. But you always strive for
• 0:52
  perfection, knowing that you'll never be perfect, but embracing
• 0:55
  the challenge of everyday just trying to get a little bit
• 0:58
  sharper cash. One more bet than you lose.
• 1:01
  You know, produce any type of winning.
• 1:03
  You know a number of units, whether it's up five units, up
• 1:06
  one unit up point O3 units. You just try to stack as many
• 1:09
  winning days as you can. But then there are days when
• 1:12
  everything aligns, all the breaks go your way and all the
• 1:16
  hard work you put in grinding and keeping your head down on a
• 1:19
  daily basis pays off in a big way.
• 1:21
  Dare I say Bigley and guess what it it paid off last night Bigley
• 1:26
  because we swept the board. That's right, bust out the
• 1:30
  brooms A6 and O night. You'll love to see it. 6 and O +
• 1:34
  4.35 units. First off, we're able to get our
• 1:38
  game seven NHL Stanley Cup Final under which came through.
• 1:42
  So the hockey season is now over.
• 1:44
  Florida Panthers won two to one, and the best part of that is
• 1:47
  that we knew game sevens are played differently.
• 1:50
  The style of play, everything's on the line.
• 1:53
  You play a little more conservative, you don't take as
• 1:55
  many chances. We typically see lower scoring
• 1:58
  games. This is exactly, we talked about
• 2:00
  breaking down the game last night on yesterday's pod.
• 2:02
  How hey, we love Game 7 unders, whether it's NBA or NHL, doesn't
• 2:07
  matter. Playoff game seven, you got to
• 2:09
  go under. We saw that really juiced up
• 2:11
  under 5 1/2 last night, where was I think as high as -140 -,
• 2:14
  150. And we played the under.
• 2:16
  We we ate the juice and it came through, drank the juice, we
• 2:19
  should say. Any Sopranos fans out there?
• 2:21
  Just some pulp. I like a little bit of pulp.
• 2:24
  This is a lot of pulp. But anyway, huge hit there.
• 2:28
  Game seven under. It was a 2 to one win.
• 2:30
  Panthers obviously win the Stanley Cup, but that game seven
• 2:33
  under system match. Always remember this is
• 2:35
  something we can wash, rinse, repeat throughout the playoffs
• 2:38
  for as long as we live. Game 7 unders went four and O
• 2:41
  this post season and game seven under since the start of 2010
• 2:45
  are now 40 and 1968% 24 percent ROI.
• 2:49
  So it was great to get our game seven under to finish off the
• 2:52
  NHL season with a win and then a great night of baseball.
• 2:56
  Just let's let's rip through some of these winners guys.
• 2:58
  We had the Anaheim angels late night who came through for the
• 3:01
  team, the Milwaukee Brewers with a big win over the Rangers, the
• 3:05
  Reds rolling 11 to 5 Tampa Bay Rays.
• 3:08
  Remember that was fishy wise line going to the Rays.
• 3:11
  If they have the worst record, shouldn't it have been an easy
• 3:14
  obvious Seattle Mariners play? Nope, Ray Sharp reverse line
• 3:17
  move came through And then best of all, the Boston Red Sox,
• 3:21
  cause the Sox were down six to two late, had a huge comeback.
• 3:25
  We're able to win seven to six. So five and O MLB, we got our
• 3:29
  NHL game seven under under as you like to say in Boston, but a
• 3:33
  six and O night plus 4.35 units. And again, I think those six and
• 3:37
  O nights, 5 and O nights, whatever you want to call it,
• 3:40
  those nights are the most rewarding because again, it's
• 3:43
  not sports betting is not easy. And I think sometimes when you
• 3:46
  go 5 and O, 6 and O, you're like, hey, this is easy.
• 3:48
  I should win all my bets. Always remember, sports
• 3:50
  betting's difficult. That's why these nights are so
• 3:52
  rewarding, because our hard work paid off, not only beating
• 3:56
  closing lines, you know, capping the right side, getting some
• 3:59
  good, some good value based on what our price was versus the
• 4:03
  closing line with some CLV. But really just because sports
• 4:06
  betting's difficult and you can cap a game perfectly, you know,
• 4:09
  things can happen. You can lose anyway, even if you
• 4:12
  have a great cap. Last night we capped it great
• 4:15
  and we got some good luck on our side.
• 4:16
  So a six and O night plus 4.35 units, a monster night.
• 4:20
  It was absolutely great. Fantastic for the team last
• 4:23
  night and I don't know what it was.
• 4:25
  Maybe I brought some some wedding hangover juice or good
• 4:28
  juju to the to the arena last night because I had a great day.
• 4:32
  I had a great weekend. I woke up pretty hungover and
• 4:36
  had to, you know, say bye to all my friends and put a bow and
• 4:39
  ribbon on a great weekend partying with all my best
• 4:42
  friends. And then everything went my way
• 4:44
  yesterday because it was a six and O day on the pod plus 4.35
• 4:48
  units. But then Joseph A Banks, let me
• 4:51
  tell you about this. It has nothing to do with
• 4:52
  betting, but it just let me give you a little tip here.
• 4:54
  My buddy Fed whose wedding I went to this over the weekend,
• 4:58
  we all had to rent. I was a groomsman, so we all had
• 5:00
  to rent the Joseph A Banks suit the whole gig basically when we
• 5:05
  were at the wedding. They don't give you like a suit
• 5:09
  that's completely fitted. Like there's clips on the side
• 5:11
  so you can like, loosen it up or tighten it.
• 5:13
  But all of us, you know, we're all drunk on the dance floor
• 5:16
  going nuts, but basically all of our pants keep falling down
• 5:19
  because the clips will not stay in place.
• 5:22
  So when I returned my suit yesterday to Joseph A Banks, I
• 5:24
  said, you know, they're like, hey, how'd it go?
• 5:26
  I said, hey, the wedding was great, but your suit sucked.
• 5:29
  Like the pants kept falling down.
• 5:31
  We had to, you know, one of my buddies made his wife, I
• 5:33
  couldn't believe she did it, but it was like an hour before the
• 5:36
  wedding said my pants are falling down.
• 5:38
  I need suspenders. This girl ran out and bought him
• 5:40
  suspenders. So they shout out to wife of the
• 5:42
  year there. But anyway Long story short I
• 5:44
  complained about the pants and they said we're suit.
• 5:47
  We're sorry to hear that Mister Applebaum.
• 5:49
  What if I refunded the entire purchase?
• 5:52
  So I got a full refund. It was a rental.
• 5:54
  It was I think it was like 190 bucks.
• 5:57
  She refunded the whole thing and then we had our softball second
• 6:00
  playoff game last night. We are another big dog just
• 6:03
  posted another win. So now we are moving on to the
• 6:05
  championship game, which is I believe either championship or
• 6:08
  semi final. It's it's actually tomorrow.
• 6:10
  So softball winner got my Joseph A bank refund, which was great
• 6:15
  and a six and O night plus 4.35 units.
• 6:17
  I will take that every day of the week.
• 6:20
  So the sun shined upon our face yesterday.
• 6:22
  Guys a great day. Nothing better than than capping
• 6:26
  some plays and getting some winners.
• 6:27
  But sometimes in life there and again I see here's the other
• 6:30
  thing. I know there's going to be a day
• 6:31
  coming up where nothing goes my way.
• 6:34
  You know, my alarm clock doesn't go off.
• 6:35
  I spill coffee on my shirt, I lose my pets.
• 6:38
  Something terrible happen again. I know that's that's upcoming at
• 6:41
  some point 'cause everything is cyclical.
• 6:43
  But for one day, for the great day of, of Monday, June 24th,
• 6:48
  everything broke our way. Those are the nights you
• 6:50
  absolutely love to see. So bust out the brooms sweeping
• 6:54
  it, baby. Great day yesterday.
• 6:56
  Anyway, here's the thing. And I always want to mention
• 6:59
  this. Whether we went six and O last
• 7:00
  night or O and six, as hard as it is to to kind of, you know,
• 7:04
  stay on it even keel, the approach never changes.
• 7:07
  So O and six, six and O, we're not going to get too cocky
• 7:10
  today. We're not going to say, oh,
• 7:11
  we're red hot. That means everything we touch
• 7:13
  turns of gold. We're going to double down,
• 7:15
  triple down, bet 10 games because we're hot.
• 7:17
  No, no, no, no, we're sticking exactly to the model, to the
• 7:19
  blueprint. And I would say the same thing
• 7:21
  if we went O and six, not a terrible night.
• 7:23
  Nothing went our way. We're not going to get scared
• 7:25
  and lay off. We're not going to chase and try
• 7:27
  to get it all back in one fell swoop up, down, treading water.
• 7:31
  The the model never changes. The approach never changes, but
• 7:34
  hey, it's always, it's always better to try to keep a winning
• 7:37
  day going after a six and O day than having a claw back after an
• 7:40
  O and six night. But last night again, 6 and O.
• 7:43
  You'll love to see it. Our hard work paying off.
• 7:46
  Anyway, turning the page, see if we can get a streak going here,
• 7:49
  a winning streak. It's a big baseball day.
• 7:51
  We officially have the NBA, which has been over here for a
• 7:54
  bit. Celtics are the Champs.
• 7:55
  NHL ended last night. We will have some WNBA.
• 7:59
  There's only one game today, but didn't really see much in terms
• 8:02
  of any, you know, actionable value there.
• 8:04
  So I I thought to myself, hey, let's go right back to the
• 8:06
  diamond where we've been having a pretty good year capping
• 8:09
  baseball. Let's go right to the diamond.
• 8:11
  So I have a six pack of sweats for you.
• 8:14
  Let's dive right in. We got six of them.
• 8:16
  Can we get four and have another winning day?
• 8:18
  That is our goal. And again, the other thing is
• 8:20
  about expectations. You go 6 and O last night.
• 8:23
  We're not we're not trying to go 6 and O again tonight.
• 8:25
  Would that be amazing? Yes, it would, but we're trying
• 8:27
  to grind out a four and two with a winning knight.
• 8:29
  Always keep those reasonable expectations in the back of your
• 8:32
  head. Anyway, let's get right back to
• 8:35
  what we love to do, breaking down sports from a data-driven
• 8:37
  analytical perspective. So first one on the board for
• 8:40
  me. It's an early game, 6:35 PM
• 8:42
  Eastern Time, Cleveland Guardians visiting the Baltimore
• 8:45
  Orioles. So going into this one, the
• 8:47
  Guardians are 50 and 26. They won the opener last night
• 8:50
  three to two as a -, 1 O 5 road dog.
• 8:53
  Tonight's rematch, the Guardians are going with lefty Logan
• 8:56
  Allen, who's eight and three with a 5.23 ERA.
• 8:59
  Meanwhile, the Orioles, who are 49 and 2129, they're going with
• 9:03
  fellow southpaw Cole Irvin, who's six and three with a 3.45
• 9:07
  ERA. So what have we seen across the
• 9:09
  market here? Well, I'm going to be chirping
• 9:11
  and tweeting with the Birds. Give me the O's here 'cause they
• 9:13
  have a massive sharp steam move in their favor.
• 9:16
  Baltimore open this game as low as -125 -, 130.
• 9:20
  Now Baltimore is all the way up to -150 When I wrote about this
• 9:24
  game for vison.com, which I always tweet around noon for my
• 9:27
  Twitter account at Josh under score Insights, I was
• 9:30
  highlighting the Orioles at around -140 -, 145.
• 9:33
  So the fact that they continue to get hit with no buyback
• 9:36
  whatsoever. We always love Steam in general
• 9:39
  because on the one hand, maybe you're not getting the best
• 9:41
  price anymore because it's moved.
• 9:43
  We got to take a step back and say, why is it moved?
• 9:45
  It's moved because a lot of respected money is poured in.
• 9:48
  So you always want to be with that respected money, not
• 9:50
  against it anyway. Baltimore big steam -130 now up
• 9:54
  to -150 Orioles have a great bet split as well.
• 9:57
  The Orioles are only getting 68% of bets, but 80% of dollars.
• 10:02
  So basically two out of three bets, but nearly, almost, you
• 10:06
  know, we're basically eight out of $10.
• 10:08
  That tells us that we have a low bets, higher dollars bet split
• 10:11
  with sharp money in favor of the Orioles.
• 10:12
  A lot of system matches on the OS, if you're a favorite off a
• 10:15
  loss, playing an opponent off a win, kind of the classic buy low
• 10:18
  sell high play. That's 251 and one 5762% with a
• 10:23
  5% ROI. Baltimore, meanwhile, has been
• 10:26
  great as a favorite. I know they were favored
• 10:27
  yesterday and lost, but they're still on the year 40 and 23 as a
• 10:31
  favorite 64% with an 8% ROI. That's the 5th best chalk team
• 10:36
  in baseball and in particular when the Orioles are favored
• 10:39
  after losing the previous game. So favorite off a loss,
• 10:42
  Baltimore 16 and 867 percent, 12% ROI.
• 10:46
  So it kind of speaks to Orioles being resilient in the bounce
• 10:49
  back factor. Now, I'm going to bank on
• 10:51
  Baltimore's offense here. They're hitting two 52125
• 10:54
  homers, 405 runs scored. Cleveland's hitting 24489
• 10:58
  homers, 382 runs scored. Irvin hopefully will pitch a
• 11:02
  good game for us tonight. He's got a 2.83 ERA at home
• 11:06
  versus 4.26 on the road. So he's been better at home than
• 11:08
  on the road. He's on the he's at home here
• 11:10
  tonight. Little cherry on top, nothing
• 11:12
  crazy, but the home plate dump I noticed Dan Bellino is 55% to
• 11:16
  the home team. Historically he's one of the
• 11:18
  better home play dumps that basically favors or the home
• 11:21
  team does better when he's behind the plate.
• 11:23
  Orioles, meanwhile, have that non division favorite value,
• 11:26
  lack of familiarity, benefiting quote UN quote the better team
• 11:29
  and just a classic buy low sell high because Cleveland if you
• 11:33
  look at you know, obviously they're a great team this year.
• 11:35
  Good, really good record of the Guardians have won six straight.
• 11:39
  The Orioles have lost four straight, so you would think,
• 11:43
  hey, ride the hot hand, take guardians as plus money.
• 11:45
  But the fact that we're getting Baltimore with this big steam,
• 11:48
  having lost four straight playing a good team, tells me
• 11:50
  got a lot of wise guys here or wise gals getting down hard on
• 11:54
  the OS. So that's where I want to be.
• 11:55
  Give me the Orioles guys big steam in their favor.
• 11:58
  I'm on Baltimore. I got the OS at around -140 now
• 12:02
  they're as high as -150 and also throw in the fact that Juice
• 12:06
  Reel, who is one of our one of our great partners here on the
• 12:09
  podcast, helps us promote the pod Juice Reel.
• 12:12
  I noticed I went logged into their app and I went to their
• 12:15
  Robo Jackson AI recommended bets which come out every day at
• 12:19
  noon. And they were both baseball and
• 12:21
  one of them was the Orioles. So the Robo Jackson AI bot says
• 12:25
  go Orioles here today. So little little cherry on top.
• 12:27
  And again, if you haven't done it yet, go sign up for that 7
• 12:30
  day free trial of Juice Reel so you can get get access to the
• 12:34
  Robo Jackson plays, the arbitrage opportunities, the
• 12:36
  sharp mush system matches, as well as syncing up your sports
• 12:40
  books to the app and getting a running record of your
• 12:43
  performance so you can really focus and learn your strengths
• 12:46
  and weaknesses. Focus on your strengths, work on
• 12:48
  your weaknesses. But again, that Juice Reel sign
• 12:50
  up link is just located right in the bio description of this
• 12:54
  podcast. Keep on cruising after the O's.
• 12:57
  Let's go play the Phillies here. Phillies are on the road at
• 13:00
  Detroit. Noticed a good move in favor of
• 13:02
  Philadelphia. Now going to this one.
• 13:05
  Obviously the Phillies have been one of the best teams in
• 13:07
  baseball this year. They still have the best record
• 13:09
  in baseball. Let me pull it up.
• 13:11
  They are, yes, 52 and 26. Guardians are right behind them,
• 13:16
  50 and 26. But going into this one, we have
• 13:19
  the Philippine Phillies who took last night's series opener 8 to
• 13:22
  one. Now it's game two at Detroit.
• 13:24
  Detroit on the years, just 36 and 42.
• 13:27
  But the pitching match up here for tonight, we have Ranger
• 13:30
  Suarez, who's been great, 10 and one 1.75 ERA.
• 13:33
  He'll be opposed by Tarek Skubel, who's eight and three
• 13:36
  with a 2.5 OERA. What have you noticed across the
• 13:39
  board here? Well, good steam in favor of
• 13:42
  Philly. I'm going Phills here, guys.
• 13:43
  The Phillies opened some shops as low as a -, 110 -, 115 road
• 13:48
  favorite. Now the Phillies are up to -125
• 13:51
  I see one book even closer to -130 so good.
• 13:54
  You know, about $0.10 of steam in favor of Philadelphia.
• 13:57
  The Phillies are getting 90% of bets, but nearly 95% of money.
• 14:01
  So it tells us that we got both pro and Joe support public as
• 14:05
  well as sharp money moving the line in favor of Philadelphia.
• 14:08
  Now, if you look at some system matches here, first one that
• 14:11
  jumps out to me is a interleague favorite.
• 14:13
  So lack of familiarity, Philly from the NL, Detroit from the
• 14:16
  AL, you don't match up and play each other very often.
• 14:19
  Basically the that lack of familiarity benefits, quote UN
• 14:22
  quote, the better team who's expected to win, which would be
• 14:24
  Philly. Also, I love this angle here,
• 14:27
  which would be short Rd. favorites -130 or less.
• 14:31
  So basically, we're on the edge because some folks are getting
• 14:33
  closer to -130 but that sweet spot, Short Rd. favorite -130
• 14:37
  your last, those teams are 115 and 9156% with a 4% ROI.
• 14:43
  Philly also has that correlative favorite.
• 14:45
  Low total betting value here 'cause Philly is -125 -, 130.
• 14:51
  The total is 7 1/2. So low total.
• 14:53
  Fairmont expected run scored more likely to come from quote
• 14:56
  UN quote, that better team. I dug a little bit into
• 14:59
  basically how both teams perform against lefties.
• 15:01
  Anytime you see two lefties on the bump, I quickly say, hey,
• 15:04
  how do they hit lefties 'cause you have more righties than
• 15:07
  lefties. So sometimes you'll see teams
• 15:09
  that are really good against lefties are really bad against
• 15:11
  lefties. Well, the edge here's out with
• 15:13
  Philly. Philly against lefties this
• 15:15
  year, they're hitting 266. That's fourth best in baseball.
• 15:19
  Detroit is only hitting 234 against lefties, That's 21st.
• 15:22
  So Philly hits the southpaw better offensively.
• 15:25
  Hopefully Philly comes to play tonight, brings the bats.
• 15:27
  They're hitting 26094 home runs, 398 runs scored versus Detroit,
• 15:32
  hitting two 3172 homers, 321 run scored.
• 15:38
  You look at Tariq Scubel, he's been great.
• 15:39
  I got to double check 'cause he was the Cy Young favorite in the
• 15:42
  AL for quite a bit, but he's kind of come back to earth a
• 15:44
  little bit as ERA is still only 2.5 O for the year, but it's
• 15:47
  3.91 in June. So in four starts, he's kind of
• 15:51
  come back down to earth a little bit.
• 15:52
  Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez, 1.75 ERA in the year, 1.77 ERA in
• 15:58
  four June starts. Philly is three and one in those
• 16:00
  games, so it seems like this is a pretty decent price.
• 16:03
  Pretty cheap number here on Philly.
• 16:05
  Got some line movement system matches, correlative betting
• 16:08
  favorite low total. They hit southpaws better.
• 16:10
  I'm taking a shot in the Phills here, guys, give me Philly.
• 16:13
  Got Philadelphia at -125 keep on cruising.
• 16:17
  Got an ain't broke don't fix it play.
• 16:19
  You know what that means? That means they won for us last
• 16:22
  night. So let's do the same thing
• 16:23
  'cause they look pretty sharp here again tonight.
• 16:25
  I'm talking about the red legs. Let's go, Reds, baby.
• 16:28
  Reds are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• 16:30
  Reds are 37 and 41. Had a big win for us last night,
• 16:33
  11 to five and the opener cashing as a -, 135 home
• 16:37
  favorite. Meanwhile, the Pirates same
• 16:39
  record 37 and 41. They're going to throw out Mitch
• 16:42
  Keller here today. He's eight and four, the 3.11
• 16:44
  ERA. Meanwhile, the Reds are going to
• 16:46
  go with Rady Hunter Green, five and two 3.35 ERA.
• 16:50
  But once again, good movement, just like last night and just
• 16:53
  like today in favor of Cincinnati.
• 16:55
  So I'm going Reds this game open with Cincinnati listed as low as
• 16:59
  a -, 115 -, 120 home favorite. Now we're seeing Cincinnati up
• 17:04
  to -125 -, 130. So good movement in favor of
• 17:08
  Cincinnati. Now once it's the match I have
• 17:10
  on the Reds would be both below 500.
• 17:12
  Take the favorite or you could call it basically two bad teams
• 17:15
  take the favorite. If you have a sub 500 record,
• 17:17
  just take who's expected to win. Very simple system, but it's
• 17:20
  been profitable. 162 and 110 on the year, 60% with a 2% ROI.
• 17:27
  Keller, meanwhile, he's got good numbers overall, but he has been
• 17:29
  worse on the road. 3.83 ERA on the road versus 2.36 at home.
• 17:34
  A little snapshot here. Last 10 games, Reds are hitting
• 17:37
  242 with a 3.45 team ERA. Pirates are only hitting 222
• 17:42
  with a 5 point O1 ERA. So recent stretch of games here,
• 17:46
  Red's been better both with the bats and on the mound.
• 17:49
  Little cherry on top once again, Tom Hanahan, He's a newish
• 17:51
  umpire. He's been really skewed to the
• 17:53
  home team. He is 61% to the home team.
• 17:56
  Cincinnati is home here tonight. I did notice there was some over
• 18:00
  money. So 8 1/2 have been bet up to
• 18:02
  nine at some shops. The winds blowing out only 37%
• 18:05
  bets, but 50% money's on the over.
• 18:07
  I just feel like I missed the triggering number if you can no
• 18:10
  longer get the 8 1/2. But to me, the biggest thing
• 18:12
  here is just seeing this line continue to creep up in favor of
• 18:15
  Cincinnati. So I'm going to play the Reds
• 18:16
  here tonight with some good steam and two bad teams.
• 18:19
  Take the favorite. I'm on Cincinnati at -125 keep
• 18:24
  on cruising. Another ain't broke, don't fix
• 18:27
  it play. I had to sweat this one out, but
• 18:29
  let's go Red Sox once again here tonight, let's go Boston.
• 18:32
  I'm on the Red Sox. I got the Red Sox around -120
• 18:36
  this game opened Boston. Second game of the series
• 18:39
  playing Toronto, obviously. Red Sox, as I mentioned, came
• 18:41
  back from a six to two deficit late in the game and won seven
• 18:44
  to six. Thanks to Jaron Duran on the
• 18:47
  year, Boston is now 43 and 36. Think, what's that?
• 18:49
  Seven games above 500? I think it's the best mark that
• 18:52
  they've been all year. Blue Jays, meanwhile, 35 and 43
• 18:56
  pitching matchup tonight. We have Kevin Gossman, the
• 18:59
  righty going for Toronto. He's five and six with a 4.24
• 19:03
  ERA. He'll be opposed by opposed by
• 19:05
  Brian Baio, fellow righty, Boston starter here.
• 19:09
  He's seven and four with a 4.83 ERA.
• 19:12
  Now, what do we see across the market?
• 19:14
  Little bit of line movement toward Boston.
• 19:15
  Nothing crazy. I noticed a lot of shops open at
• 19:18
  around Red Sox -115 Now it's Red Sox -120 -. 125 S about 5-10
• 19:24
  cents of steam in favor of Boston.
• 19:27
  Now I'm going to focus on a few things here.
• 19:29
  One is the offense of the Red Sox.
• 19:31
  Red Sox are hitting 255 on the year, 88 homers, 370 runs
• 19:36
  scored. Toronto hitting only two 3368
• 19:40
  homers, 302 runs scored. So Red Sox offense has been far
• 19:44
  better on the year basically over Toronto last 10.
• 19:49
  Boston's hitting 287 with a 3.7 four team ERA.
• 19:52
  Toronto's only hitting 235 with a 4.92 ERA.
• 19:56
  And again, I always loved the buy low sell high.
• 20:00
  You know, we talked about Baltimore having lost four
• 20:01
  straight, Cleveland's won six straight, yet Lions going to
• 20:04
  kind of the fishy team who struggled more, which would be
• 20:07
  moving toward Baltimore. Well, this is one of those games
• 20:10
  where even though it's a buy low sell high in favor of Toronto,
• 20:13
  still looks like the smart money here is going Red Sox.
• 20:16
  So not outsmarting themselves, basically the wise guys.
• 20:19
  Because Toronto is 2 and 9 their last eleven games.
• 20:22
  Boston is 10 and two back at Fenway here tonight.
• 20:25
  Actually, you saw the the Celtics threw out the first
• 20:27
  pitch last night, brought the championship to Fenway, which is
• 20:30
  pretty cool. Basically this tells me with the
• 20:33
  line move that hey, even though it's like obvious take the the
• 20:36
  better team who's got the better record and playing better Boston
• 20:39
  wise guys are saying yes, we agree.
• 20:41
  Basically, you'll get run differential plus 49 for Boston
• 20:46
  -51 for Toronto. Red Sox have had the Toronto
• 20:50
  Blue Jays number this year. They're four.
• 20:52
  And O head to head. Kevin Gossman has a 4.44 ERA in
• 20:55
  four June starts. Toronto has lost three of those
• 20:58
  four games. And these teams actually just
• 21:00
  met up and played each other last week.
• 21:02
  I think we might have played the Sox in that game, but the Red
• 21:05
  Sox won seven to three. It was Baio against Gossman.
• 21:07
  Baio went six innings, two runs. Gossman went 5.2 innings, four
• 21:11
  runs. But to me, if you're getting the
• 21:13
  Red Sox at home playing great baseball, little bit of line
• 21:16
  movement, better offense against a really, you know, struggling
• 21:20
  Toronto team here. I think the value is with
• 21:22
  Boston, we got a little bit of line movement as well.
• 21:24
  So I'm going Red Sox shop round. I got Boston at -120 keep on
• 21:30
  cruising 4 down to to go next one up, Washington Nationals
• 21:34
  visiting the San Diego Padres. I'm going to go with the Nats in
• 21:37
  this one, guys. This one jumped out to me first
• 21:40
  thing this morning as a really sharp dog to fave line move.
• 21:43
  So going into it, we have the Padres, who are 42 and 41.
• 21:47
  They took last night's series opener seven to six in extra
• 21:50
  innings. Cash is a -, 185 home favorite
• 21:53
  pitching match up tonight. The Nationals 38 and 42 games
• 21:56
  below 500. But they've been competitive
• 21:58
  this year. They're going with the lefty
• 21:59
  Mackenzie Gore was actually acquired from San Diego in the
• 22:03
  Soto trade a few years ago, but he's six and six with a 3.49
• 22:07
  ERA. Padres, meanwhile, are going
• 22:08
  with Adam Mazur or Mazer Missouri MAZURI never heard of
• 22:13
  this guy. Oh, and two 7.27 ERA.
• 22:16
  This is all about the line movement in favor of Washington
• 22:19
  because this game opened San Diego around a -, 120 home
• 22:23
  favorite Washington and plus 110 Rd. dog and it's completely
• 22:27
  flipped now to Washington -115 -, 120.
• 22:32
  So literally the, the Washington Nationals went from basically
• 22:35
  like plus 1/10 to now -115 -, 120.
• 22:39
  So a big dog to fave move. Also love this bet split because
• 22:43
  basically the public's down the middle 5050.
• 22:45
  They don't know where to go here yet we've seen the line flip to
• 22:48
  Washington. So not only does Washington have
• 22:50
  dog to fave line movement, but they have the 5050 line move.
• 22:53
  So it's not like Washington's getting 90% of bets and they had
• 22:56
  that movement. This is actually right down the
• 22:57
  middle actually technically majorities on San Diego.
• 23:00
  San Diego's getting 52% of bets, Washington only getting 48%, but
• 23:05
  they're taking in 74% of dollars.
• 23:08
  So low bets, higher dollars. Good sharp line movement system
• 23:13
  matches here on the Nats. A favorite off a loss, playing
• 23:16
  an opponent off a win. 251 and one, 5762% this year with a 5%
• 23:21
  ROI. Rd. favorites getting $0.10 of
• 23:24
  steam or more, 47 and 2664% with an 8% ROI.
• 23:29
  Sweet spot, short Rd. favorites -130 or less 56% with a 4% ROI.
• 23:34
  Mackenzie Gore actually been much better on the road than at
• 23:37
  home. At home, he's got a 4.13 RA, not
• 23:40
  terrible, but on the road, 2.28. You would assume Gore probably
• 23:44
  has some, has something to prove as he was, you know, drafted
• 23:47
  and, you know, brought up in the San Diego Padres organization.
• 23:49
  Got traded, now goes back to the team that traded him away.
• 23:53
  Padres, meanwhile, only hitting 228 against lefties.
• 23:55
  That's 24th. And baseball, Missouri is 23
• 23:59
  years old. He's a rookie.
• 24:00
  He's only making his fifth start overall and then four starts
• 24:03
  he's given up fourteen runs and 17.1 innings pitched.
• 24:07
  Nationals lastly have that correlative betting value.
• 24:09
  Favorite low total told this one 7 1/2.
• 24:12
  But yet it all up again. If you're like me and you like
• 24:14
  line movement, this is probably the game that jumped out to you
• 24:17
  first thing today because Washington flipped again.
• 24:19
  Bigley dog to favorite, but let's go Nats shop round.
• 24:22
  I got the Nationals at -120 last bet of the night.
• 24:27
  And I don't typically do this, but I'm going to tell you to go
• 24:30
  action, not listed pitcher action on the San Francisco G
• 24:34
  men, G men. So this one's a little tricky
• 24:38
  because Chicago Cubs, you know who they're going to pitch here
• 24:42
  for tonight. Cubs coming in this game, by the
• 24:44
  way, 37 and 42. They're going to go with the
• 24:46
  veteran righty, Kyle Hendricks, who's one and four with a 7.46
• 24:50
  ERA. But we don't know who San
• 24:52
  Francisco's going to throw out there right now.
• 24:54
  It's undecided. I was reading on Twitter that it
• 24:57
  might be Carson Wizenhunt who is a #2 prospect lefty in San
• 25:02
  Francisco's organization. He was a second round pick back
• 25:04
  in 2022, hasn't been confirmed. These are just rumblings on
• 25:08
  Twitter. So it might be this stud, you
• 25:10
  know, lefty prospect that might come up in pitch.
• 25:12
  At one point Walker was expected to pitch.
• 25:15
  So we don't know exactly who's going to pitch for San
• 25:18
  Francisco. But what I like is even though
• 25:20
  we don't know who's going to pitch for San Fran or maybe it
• 25:23
  is going to be wizard Hunt, the line's shooting up towards San
• 25:25
  Francisco. So that tells me either wise
• 25:27
  guys know who's starting or they don't care who's starting and
• 25:30
  they like to play here on San Fran regardless of the starter.
• 25:33
  Maybe they should go opener and it's a bullpen game anyway.
• 25:36
  This game was basically a pick em minus one O 5 both sides.
• 25:39
  And by the way, last night you had the Giants win 5:00 to 4:00
• 25:43
  to take game one of the series. But the first thing I noticed
• 25:46
  was a pick em opener. It was basically minus one O 5
• 25:48
  both sides. Some shops opened a little bit,
• 25:51
  you know, of a favorite here even toward the Cubs.
• 25:54
  But we've seen a massive adjustment dog to fave or pick
• 25:56
  em to fave in the direction of San Francisco.
• 25:59
  So San Francisco is now up to -120 So San Francisco went from
• 26:03
  basically minus one O 5 pick em dog or or just a pick em play
• 26:07
  now to -120 So about a 15 cents team move in favor of the the G
• 26:12
  men here. G men have a great bet split,
• 26:14
  only getting 44% of bets, but 61% of dollars.
• 26:18
  So good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
• 26:20
  Sharp contrarian. And if you look at Hendricks,
• 26:23
  he's actually pitched much better here in the month of
• 26:26
  June, but he's been worse on the road.
• 26:28
  ERA of nine versus 6.18 at home. I'm going to bank on the offense
• 26:32
  hopefully of San Fran coming through.
• 26:33
  They're hitting 246 with 346 runs scored versus the Cubs
• 26:38
  hitting 2:30 with 330 runs scored.
• 26:41
  Home Rd. splits also favor San Fran.
• 26:43
  They are 21 and 17 at home. Cubs are only 15 and 24 on the
• 26:47
  road. And then also two other factors
• 26:50
  we look at one non division favorite lack of familiarity
• 26:53
  benefiting quote UN quote the better team based upon the
• 26:55
  favorite designation and favorite low total told this one
• 26:58
  is 8. So if your amount of expected
• 27:00
  run scored again, more likely to come from quote UN quote that
• 27:03
  better team. I also like the fact that San
• 27:05
  Fran maybe we'll get some mojo here because they are paying
• 27:09
  homage to the great Willie Mays who recently passed away.
• 27:12
  I noticed they all wore I think it was #24 yesterday, which was
• 27:16
  which was pretty cool as as they walked it off paying homage to
• 27:21
  Willie, Willie Mays. Anyway, I'm going San Fran,
• 27:25
  don't know the pitcher exactly yet.
• 27:26
  Good steam tells me we got smart money going.
• 27:28
  Giants G men, let's go Giants. I got San Fran at -120 so we got
• 27:34
  the Giants, the Nationals, the Red Sox, the Phillies,
• 27:39
  Cincinnati and the Baltimore Orioles.
• 27:41
  Can we get four out of six and have a winning night?
• 27:44
  That is the goal. Now, without further ado as we
• 27:48
  finish up episode, we'll be on 63 now at this point.
• 27:51
  First off, thank you for listening to the pod.
• 27:54
  This is the part of the program where I thank you.
• 27:55
  And then also I asked something of you.
• 27:57
  So First off, thank you for tuning in, for pulling up a
• 28:00
  chair to the virtual bar for sweat and sharp contrary and
• 28:03
  breakdowns with me as a data minded or data-driven better.
• 28:07
  But secondly, can I ask something of you?
• 28:09
  Can you do me a favor? Can you give this podcast a 5
• 28:13
  star review please? Whether you are on Spotify or
• 28:16
  iTunes, give it five stars. If there's an option to follow
• 28:19
  the pod, so you just click follow now way when it drops you
• 28:22
  get alerted to it, that'll be great as well.
• 28:25
  Or if you just want to recommend the pod to a friend, word of
• 28:29
  mouth, that buddy of yours maybe who bets baseball and you know,
• 28:32
  parlays everything and does nerfies and your fees and 1st
• 28:35
  fives and part and all the kind of crazy stuff.
• 28:38
  Maybe maybe they want to be introduced to data-driven flat
• 28:41
  betting individual plays. Or maybe you have a friend who
• 28:44
  maybe you know, should learn a thing or two about how to read
• 28:47
  line movement or go contrarian. If you want to recommend it to a
• 28:50
  buddy, a family member, a fellow better out there, that would
• 28:53
  really make my day. But seriously, if you could give
• 28:54
  it five stars, that would really help us to rise up the rankings
• 28:58
  and continue to grow organically.
• 29:00
  So thank you very much for that. Secondly, if you had a good
• 29:03
  night last night and I know you did, how could you not?
• 29:06
  6 and O + 4 point 4.35 units. If you got a couple extra bones
• 29:11
  in your pocket and you want to support the pod, let me know you
• 29:14
  appreciate the pod, the hard work that I put in here hosting
• 29:17
  each day or you want to learn more about being a data-driven
• 29:20
  sports better than guess what? I have another question to ask
• 29:23
  you. Can you please go buy my book?
• 29:25
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend or for a family member or
• 29:29
  buddy of yours or Co worker. But it has got everything I've
• 29:32
  learned. I put I put poured everything
• 29:33
  into that book. You probably might have heard me
• 29:36
  say this before, but I literally spent four months when I used to
• 29:39
  live in Gloucester and on the north, the North Shore of
• 29:42
  Boston, and it was an epic summer, but I never left my
• 29:46
  apartment. But I poured everything I could
• 29:48
  into that book and I've learned a lot and I've learned a lot
• 29:51
  since then. I feel like I've been even
• 29:52
  sharper since I dropped the book.
• 29:54
  I think it came out almost four years ago at this point.
• 29:56
  But anyway, it's called the Everything Guide to Sports
• 29:58
  Betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a
• 30:00
  friend. It's got everything I've learned
• 30:01
  in terms of how lines are set, how and why they move, how to
• 30:04
  read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
• 30:06
  place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
• 30:09
  how to set up a bankroll management plan, chapters on all
• 30:12
  the major sports. It's all included in my book,
• 30:14
  The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 30:15
  So buy a copy, pick one up and when you when you bring the book
• 30:20
  to the book, the sports book that is, I'm going to sign it
• 30:22
  for you and I am going to I'm going to buy you a beer or maybe
• 30:27
  buy you AI don't know a White claw or maybe a water.
• 30:30
  If you don't drink, I'll get you ginger ale.
• 30:32
  But seriously, guys, it would really mean a lot to me.
• 30:35
  Of course, if you haven't done it yet.
• 30:36
  Lastly, I mentioned earlier to go sign up for the Juice reel 7
• 30:40
  day free trial. We'll also make sure you sign up
• 30:42
  for the Rhythm 7 day free trial. I know I mentioned there's a
• 30:45
  WNBA game today. I didn't really have a ton of
• 30:47
  system matches on it, but Juice Reel is great for their AI
• 30:51
  backed WNBA pics and props. I know they don't have all the
• 30:54
  sports, but they're working on adding all of them.
• 30:56
  I love the community feature which we talked about
• 30:59
  previously. And also once it gets the NFL
• 31:02
  season, Juice Rhythm is going to be just huge for us with player
• 31:06
  props because that's really where I feel like I have the
• 31:08
  most success. The NFL really the pass catching
• 31:11
  pass catcher player props. But anyway, sign up for the
• 31:14
  rhythm 7 day free trial. Give it a shot.
• 31:16
  I think you're going to enjoy it, especially if you bet WNBA
• 31:18
  or golf right now. They're huge with golf with
• 31:20
  their AI caddy, which you can bet hole to hole and make some
• 31:23
  make some money on that as well. But you can just click again
• 31:26
  that custom link located at the top of my Twitter profile at
• 31:30
  Josh under score insights or of course in the bio description of
• 31:33
  this podcast. I want to mention I just saw
• 31:35
  this pop up that Cubs San Fran game.
• 31:38
  I thought it might be Wiz and hunt that that's young stud
• 31:41
  prospect. It sounds like it's going to be
• 31:42
  Randy Rodriguez as an opener. So even though they just
• 31:45
  announced Rodriguez still seeing San Fran -120 -, 125.
• 31:50
  So hopefully it's a bullpen game and a winning bullpen game for
• 31:53
  San Francisco. Just wanted to mention that
• 31:55
  anyway, but that about does it for episode 63 of the all
• 31:58
  systems go sports betting podcast.
• 32:00
  Weather I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 32:04
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 32:06
  Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
• 32:09
  Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
• 32:12
  Massachusetts. We're out in the desert where
• 32:14
  the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his
• 32:17
  number runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the
• 32:20
  South Point or sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 32:22
  stadium swimming pool at Circa. If you're out in the desert, got
• 32:26
  to get to Circa, that's fantastic.
• 32:27
  It's basically Disney World for adult sports betters.
• 32:30
  But wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me and we're
• 32:33
  just going to smile at each other because we got after it
• 32:36
  last night. 6 and O show me 6 winning tickets.
• 32:40
  Show me a game seven under 5 1/2 Florida and Edmonton show me a
• 32:45
  Angels ticket, Brewers ticket, Reds ticket, race ticket Red Sox
• 32:49
  come from behind ticket. Guess what first one's on me,
• 32:52
  next one's on you. We're going to post about the
• 32:53
  book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays all
• 32:55
  night long. So have a fantastic Tuesday
• 32:58
  everyone. Again, the challenge of after a
• 33:00
  six and O night to produce another winning night.
• 33:03
  I'm I'm I'm here for it. So let's see if we can post
• 33:05
  another winning day. My parting words?
• 33:07
  As always, stay sharp, Stay contrarian.
• 33:10
  Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
• 33:12
  the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 33:14
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 33:16
  Of course not. But here's the thing, we're
• 33:18
  always playing that long game if we can find the system matches,
• 33:21
  Bypass the games with red flags. Only get down on the games that
• 33:25
  fit our criteria. Against the public, with the
• 33:28
  house, with the pros. Flat bet, Avoid parlays.
• 33:31
  Get that CLV closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
• 33:35
  to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats everyone.
• 33:38
  Great night last night. Let's see if we can do it again
• 33:40
  here for tonight. But of course, as always, we are
• 33:44
  going to enter the arena and hopefully come out with some
• 33:47
  with some winners here. So have a fantastic night
• 33:50
  everyone. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 33:52
  episode 64 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
• 33:57
  by Rhythm. Have a great night everybody,
• 33:59
  Good luck.