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Inside The Data: Does The Data Show Eagles Offense Is Giving Tells? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome to Inside the Data. On Inside the Birds,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. Of course, I got the data man,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: the expert on analytics with me, and it's Sam Finkel.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: And for the second straight week, numbers probably aren't going
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: to be good for Eagles fans to hear. However, this show,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the best thing about what we do here and what
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Sam does is we are adaptable. We don't do the
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: same exact thing week after week. We try to adjust
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to what's going on in the game. So in this episode,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Sam will definitely get into the fourth down, the probabilities
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: and the percentages of that somewhat controversial fourth down play
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: call or.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Decision to go for it at the end of the
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: game by Nick Sirianni.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: We'll also get into some of the offensive play calling
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: and the predictability, lack thereof, not really, of it. And
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: then based on a YouTube commenter from last week, Sam
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: came up with a really good idea. Because we tend
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to inundate everybody, both our listeners and our viewers on YouTube,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: with a lot of numbers and information in a short pod,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: we'll go and summarize it all at the end. Our
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: main takeaway is part of the show. So thanks for
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: doing all that work, Sam.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Of course. Yeah, I'm really glad we got that suggestion.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: Hopefully people enjoy it.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they will. Let's get right to it, right?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Because if we bring up the first chart, this is
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the craziest chart, like the line graph chart, I guess
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: we call it, that you're ever going to see. Well,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: maybe not ever going to see, but certainly one of
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the year. As the Rams, you can see their win,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: you know, the score going low, low, low.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: And then all of a sudden at the end, just
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: shooting up there.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: That's unbelievable.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it really was. And it makes it really hard
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: when there are certain decisions that the coaching staff made that,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: you know, from a perception standpoint, lowered their chances to win.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: But we'll talk a little bit more about that and
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: why it's not a process issue, but an execution issue.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: And sometimes the results just don't land the way that,
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: you know, you want.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. When was the peak win?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Point for the Eagles who were leading for almost the
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: entire game.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: So the peak win was after the Will Shipley run
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: on second and sixth, the four yard run that set
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: up the third and goal at the two. The Eagles
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: were leading 20 to 10 and the peak win percentage
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: was 97%. There were eight minutes left. It was 97%
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: likelihood to win this game. Right.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: And that, of course, that run down to the six
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: yard line is really set up the sequence of that
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: decided the game, whether the Eagles were going to score
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: there or give the ball back to the Rams. And
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: then the Rams obviously went and did what, Sam?
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So the Rams completed the most improbable comeback under
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: McVay's career so far with the Rams. Stafford completed 12-15,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: which is 80% completion percentage for 140 yards and all
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: plays resulting in all of his passes were successful plays.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: And there was a 75% success rate on the throws
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: of that drive.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: So on every throw or just the compilation.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: Of that compilation of throws, even though there was 80% completion,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: 75% increased the EPA. Right.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: And so I assume when you say it's the most
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: improbable comeback, it's because with eight and change left, they only.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Had a 3.2% chance to win.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: All right, so we talk about that sequence, right? The
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Eagles get inside the 10 to the six-yard line. They
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: run a third down play that by now, if you
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: haven't seen it, what really happened, it was probably going
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to be a touchdown, but on a run that they were,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: they were running the ball well, Juergens kind of runs into,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: he's pulling to the right side, and he kind of
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: runs into Jalen Hurts, and that causes Jalen Hurts to
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: bobble the ball, and then the timing of the play
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: is off. He can't hand it off to Bigsby. He
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: has to try to take it himself. He gets stopped,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: and that sets up a fourth and goal at the two.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: That set up to an incompletion. I believe it was
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: to Darius Cooper looking for his third touchdown of the day,
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: but it was short. Yes.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So let us examine, Sam, what everybody's been talking about since,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: which is Should Nick Sirianni have gone for it there
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: or kicked the field goal to go up by, that
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: would have been up by 13 at that point.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: So let me be explicitly clear. This is an analysis
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: on process and analytics. It is not an analysis on
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: scheme or execution. That is really important factors for sure.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: But purely from a mathematical standpoint, the answer is unequivocally yes.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: It was the right decision. And the reason it comes
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: into that is because there are really two schools of thought, right?
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: So you're either going to go for it or kick
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: the field goal, which obviously are the two options. The
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: thing is, if you don't convert either, right? I have
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: definitive statistics that without the conversion, they were at 91%
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: win percentage. It didn't drop them that much, which again,
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: there was no statistic on if they missed the field goal. Right.
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: But it can be implied to be the same because
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: the net result was the same. I just want to
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: be very clear on that because there was no win
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: probability on that, but I'm implying it's the same thing.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: And then you look at, if you go for it,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: the percentage of winning goes to 97.3%. And that's from
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: ESPN analytics.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: So it was at 96%, correct?
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: It was at, it.
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: Was at, yeah, it was at 96. It was at
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: 97 before on the third down and then it became
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: 96 on the fourth down.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: So you would go from that 96 to 97.3%. Right.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: And the reason, the logic behind it is you're up 17, right?
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: That's three scores. It takes three scores to break that lead.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: If you kick the field goal, you're only up two scores.
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: The difference between 13 and 10 is negligible. And in fact,
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: it changes the way the offense, the opposing offense is
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: going to drive down the field. Because if they only
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: need a touchdown and a field goal versus two touchdowns,
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: their mindset is completely different. And it completely changes the
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: flow of the game. And because it makes it more
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: like they did a study on it. And it's one
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: of my favorite YouTube videos I saw about When an
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: offense is down a touchdown, which is what they eventually
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: could have been if they went for that, they're more
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: likely to be aggressive and get that touchdown. There was
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: a weird study on it that said that. But that
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: in the background of this, if they kick the field goal,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: their win percentage was 95.3%. It actually went down. And
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: it was because of the logic we're talking about, right?
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: Because two touchdowns would have taken the lead at that.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: And not to mention, you have to kick off, so
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the Rams would almost surely get the ball in a
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: more favorable spot than if you miss, which they did,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: and they had to start off with a two.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: Absolutely. I mean, having the opposing offense have to do
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: a 98-yard drive is a very difficult task. The thing
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: that I think everyone's going to bring in, besides the
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: schematic part of it and besides the execution part of it,
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: is injuries, right? I mean, a lot of it is injuries.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: Do those injuries factor? And yeah, of course they do.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: There are real world implications that make this decision a
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: little bit more difficult. But purely from a math standpoint,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: this was the right decision because it put the opposing
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: team in the worst position to succeed. Even even the result,
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: even you accept it because you do it. I didn't
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: expect it. Win analysis to of it. and it still
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: is the right– I thought it would overcomplicate things a
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: little bit, so I'm just keeping it somewhat simple. But
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: it is– the math says this is the right call.
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: It is the right call. Just because the results didn't
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: go the right way doesn't mean it isn't the right call.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: 100%. I'll give you an example that is different but
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: similar in concept. When Quinnian Mitchell got hurt and Jonathan
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Jones had to go play his first snaps as an Eagle,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: 33 years old, right? What did the Rams do? They
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: went and attacked him mercilessly. And they had a beautiful
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: play call on third down against him that got Devontae
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Adams wide open. But Matthew Stafford just overshot him a
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: little bit. The result was not favorable, but the process was.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: You would, of course, want to go after. You want
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: to give yourself the best chance to succeed. And even
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: though that's a low percentage pass and you're losing at
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the time, would you rather have a.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: Higher percentage pass, right?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: A five-yard pass there doesn't help you as much as
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: that touchdown would have helped you. You have to take
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: context into everything.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: We always know that.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: But I think what happened, what the Rams did, Sam
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: validated the decision to go for it.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: They went and scored 14 points.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: So if the Eagles had kicked the field goal, they
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: would have lost by one instead of losing by four.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: What's the difference?
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: You lose, you lose. So I agree. I thought it was,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: I do respect, you.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Know, people who think that maybe things and context and
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: stuff happens.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: But you can't, I don't think you can, I do
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: not think you can coach a game on, well.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: Maybe if they get, they, maybe.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: They'll fumble the field goal. I'm sorry. The ensuing kickoff return, right?
• 9:39
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• 12:57
  Speaker 1: You have to give yourself the best percentage of a
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: chance to win.
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: Well, and that's the thing. You can't control a lot
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: of things in football. You can control your process and
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: your decision-making and that's where analytics really helps.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: A hundred percent. I, by the way, I did, I
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: do what, you know, I do a weekly show every
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: weekend where I preview all the NFL games. And I
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: like to have like a, a quick five minute discussion
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: of what's going on in the week. And I made,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: and the last one, I made a point of the
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Brian Schottenheimer decision two weekends ago against the Ravens. Nick's– no, no.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: The Titans coach. Why am I– his name is escaping me.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: When he played the Eagles, he kicked off into the
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: end zone.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Remember that?
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: We criticize him for it. I don't know why I
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: can't think of his name right now. Robert Sala. There
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: we go.
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I was like, I thought Callahan for a second.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: I was like, nope, that's not me.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I was going through a bunch of different coaching decisions
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: that analytically were just far off or just silly, right?
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: and bringing up Ryan Pagnetti's name as someone who I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: think was a huge part of why the Eagles won
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl in 2017 because he was in Doug's
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: ear and Doug trusted him all the time. And Doug,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: because of Ryan's advice, got more and more confident doing
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: things that the analytics said to do, going.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: For it on fourth down.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: The Philly special being like the highlight of it all.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: That Eagles team wasn't like, they didn't have any thousand
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: yard receivers. They never had a thousand yards. They wouldn't
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: have any superstars like the 2022 team did.
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: But they won it basically because they were so among
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the reasons, so confident on being able to win situationally.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: And I think what a lot of NFL head coaches
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: are missing is a kind of like that guy in
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: their ear to give them the right call. Now Nick
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: made the right call and it just didn't work. That's,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: that's going to happen. Yeah.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: You have to live with these results. I honestly, I
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: think that, this works out in their favor more often
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: than it doesn't. I think that's what the numbers say.
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: But I mean, look, the numbers don't say 100%, right?
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: It says 97.3, it says 91. They just happened, the
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: coin fell the other way. That's it.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. All right. Third down. Wow, what a disaster in
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: this game. I had a great story written about how
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the Eagles were going to be becoming the first team
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: in NFL history to win a game by double digits
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: despite having no third down conversions on at least seven attempts.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: And then that got thwarted.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: Really?
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: That was a control alt delete type fourth quarter for me,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: but that's where they were headed. Yeah.
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's, it's shocking. I, this was my favorite
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: segment that I was hoping to cut out this year.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: I know we were excited when it flipped, but like,
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: I was just like, okay, cool. We're going to cut
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: this out. Eventually we can stop hyper-focusing on third down
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: conversions and it reared its ugly head again. It really did.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah. What does 0 for 12 mean to you from
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a historical standpoint?
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: It's the most third down attempts without a conversion for
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: the Eagles since at least 1991. Wow. They had 15
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: three and outs this season, which is the most, and
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: 11 in the second half, which is three more than
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: any other team in the NFL. Wow.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Amazing.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: That should have been my story.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: 25 years in between their worst third.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Down conversion rates.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: And now they're down... as you point out here to
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: 36% for the season. I remember after week two, it
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: was like, it was something crazy.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: It was like 53%.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, it was really high. Yeah. So
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: now they're worse than they were last year, even. And
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: of course, much worse than in third down since 2024.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: And you look at it, they're, they're allowing their opponents to,
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: they were better than last year on allowing their opponents
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: to convert. And now they're right in the ballpark.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: It's just not good. And then, of course, our favorite
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: category is how often you're in third and long compared
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: to short and middle. And last week, the Eagles got
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: to a point where they were right back where they
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: were last year, which is as many third and longs
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: as short and middle combined. And now they're starting to
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: go above that.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not ideal. I mean, not by much, but yes,
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: it is. It's certainly not ideal. And the thing that's
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: most concerning is their third and shorts. They're not converting either.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's right.
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, first off, I think this deserves some merit
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: in talking about is running the tush push from third–
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: it was fourth and one and a half, right?
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know. With a backup center and a left
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: guard who's not playing well, yeah. I think even analytically
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: that might not have been a great time to go
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: for it too because you're on your side of the field, correct?
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I– I had it up. I thought it was more
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: of a coin flip. I thought I saw somewhere that
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: it was low.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: I think it was, there was one that there was
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: like a fourth and two that I thought Sirianni should
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: have went with at one point that they punted. Let
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: me see if I can find it.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sure. Sure. But you know, the big one that
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: killed them was the third and goal at the two
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: that we mentioned where Juergens and, The Jurgens ran into
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Hertz because that might have been a touchdown right there.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: And that would have been a big, very, very big key.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: It would have sworn in the game and we would
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: not even be having this conversation.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: It was, I believe, because I want to see the
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: one where they didn't convert.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Sure. By the way.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Go ahead.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: They did convert fourth downs in the game, which is not.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: But keep going.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I was going to say the crazy thing about the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: 0 for 12 on third downs is that 11 of
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: them came in. in the second half so they don't
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: even had third down once in the first half which
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: is like hey you'd love to stay out of third
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: down but i mean you'd also love to be in
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: positions where you're in a lot of third and shorts
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: if you have to be you know they were in
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: one third down the entire first half and it's not
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: like they scored 30 points.
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: Do you remember what quarter that was in.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it was the first drive, third and six. And honestly,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: that was one of the very few things I could
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: say Hurts didn't do. There was a wide open Dontavia
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: and Wicks. We went over this on Inside the Tape.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Wicks was wide open over the middle on the layered
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: kind of high-low concept. And for whatever reason, Hurts just
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: didn't throw it. And then pressure came on him because
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: he was holding on to the ball and he threw
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: it out of bounds.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: Makes sense.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So I do have this there. Let me just
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: look at all the Eagles' fourth downs. It looks like
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: there's only one where the analytics said go, and they didn't,
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: which was the fourth and four uh in the fourth
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: quarter with 307 left right around midfield that's the only
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: one it looks like.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah i i would say though given the conditions that
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: would have been a i mean you haven't converted a
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: third down all day you're in fourth and four i
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: get it you're trying to keep that drive alive not
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: give the ball back to the rams but God, they
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: were solo. The idea of maybe turning the ball over
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: there or giving the Rams that short of a field
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: at that point.
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: Sure. Totally fair. I'm just looking at what the ESPN
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: analytics have. But yeah, I mean, everyone looks pretty like
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: they followed it pretty closely.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: All right. EPA. I mean, what's there to say here, Sam?
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not good.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: Well, first off, could you blow it up a little bit?
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: I think we show the, this is the max that
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: I can blow it up.
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: Okay. Totally fair. Totally fair. Sorry. No, you're good. I
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: just I have a new chart and I want to
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: make sure that people can see it or appreciate it.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: So if you remember EPA, very sensitive to turnovers, touchdowns,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: big plays, positive for offense is good. I added some
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: a little bit different stuff this time. So I have
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: the league average through four weeks. which actually is interesting.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: The league average is minus 0.04 for EPA per play.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: So pretty much every EPA per play is negative on
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: average in the league. Eagles managed to stay above that
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: in the first two weeks, and they were significantly below
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: it in the last two.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: So I think that that's very much worth saying. And
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: then on the season, they're minus 0.18, so they're one
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: of the worst units ever. For sure. Then if we
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: look at it from a passing and a rushing standpoint,
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, the average per pass is minus 0.02. And
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: they were only above it for passing against Tennessee. And
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: then rushing, it's minus 0.08. And they were above it
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: for Washington and Chicago. And if you look at this week,
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: they were significantly below on both categories. Yeah.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: And I would think their EPA overall offensive yet minus 0.37
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: against the Rams, which is better than the minus 0.4
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: against the bears is only.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Because they didn't turn the ball over.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Because that's, we always say EPA sensitive to turnovers. They
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: had three against the bears.
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Three overall, right.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: The two interceptions and the fumble none against the Rams
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: or else, or else I think that the, epa you
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: know i mean we'll get into dvoa because that's not
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: a sensitive turnovers but uh they did not perform better
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: offensively against the rams than they did against the the
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: bears for sure they just didn't turn the ball.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: Over sure but i will say the ramps are a
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: better defense than the bears great point through through dvoa
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: they're actually probably going to be i mean i know
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: they're going.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: To yes they are you're right better.
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: But it's it's because of contextual factors such as that absolutely.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Um, so their EPA, uh, I like how you have
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: it broken down.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Again, by, by.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: Opponent, by week EPA per rush. It's see, this is
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: the SAP. I know again, there were injuries, but like they,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: they showed some signs in the first half against the
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: bears of really starting to get that run game going
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: for the first time with a 0.31 EPA per rush,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: which is their highest of the first three weeks.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: And then they completely flip it.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: By going to minus 0.32 against the Rams. Just a
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: tough situation overall.
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: It definitely was. And it's hard to see. I mean,
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: a lot of it, right? I mean, they had a
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: lot of run success in particular on the drive in question,
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: the controversial drive. They ran the ball extremely well on
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: that drive. It's also hard because Barkley wasn't on. He
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: got hurt pretty early on. Sure. And then, you know,
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: Tank gets out. It's tough. I mean, not making too
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: many excuses, but it is tricky. for sure.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: All right. As you mentioned the over the, when we
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: switched to DVO way, it's different categories.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: We've mentioned all the time.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: It takes more of the situation of the game, the
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: defense that they're playing, um, not as turnover sensitive as EPA.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: It's obviously still negative in the, uh, DVO way, but
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: to your point, because the Rams have a very good defense, um,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: their DVO way, not as bad as it was against
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: the bears.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Definitely.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: Now I actually, it's, it's, I have to make a, uh,
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: PSA for DVOA. It will always look different. Even if
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: you see this plus 6.7% for Washington, I have to
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: go back and check it because every week it's adjusts
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: as the opponent becomes better or worse. It's normalized every week.
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: So every week's number may look different. In fact, next
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: episodes will look probably different just because this DVOA is
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: updated that frequently. So don't be upset if it says
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: plus 6.7 today and then Washington turns out to have
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: a worse defense and it's plus 4.2. Just– I have
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: to let you know that because that is one of
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: the nuances with this stat. I really want to be
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: clear on that. So before we get into it, I
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: think that's a good time to plug that. Sure.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: The good thing is most people, Eagles fans and otherwise,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: only care about what's going on this.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: Week and who they're playing next week.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: So I don't think they'll worry about that too much.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: For sure. But if there is inconsistency, that is the reason.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: All right. Good stuff.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: So let's look at this from the Rams game first off.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: I mean– Their overall DVOA for offense was minus 21.1.
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: Not as bad as the Bears, but it's only because
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: the Rams have a better defense, like I said. I
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: think the Eagles did well enough to justify it to
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: some extent. I mean, the it was a really rough
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: game with the bears. I mean, I'm not saying this
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: one was rough for different reasons, but I just, I
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: think that that's important to caveat. And then on the season,
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: they're minus 9.4%. And again, when we're looking at overall DVO,
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: a for a unit, it, you don't need to look
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: at the rank as much it's, it's normalized. So, I mean,
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: they're 9.4% worse than an average NFL offense and 21.1%
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: worse than in that game. But when we get into
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: the passing and rushing it, The numbers matter, but not
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: as much. It's more the ranks that matter. And, you know,
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: you look at them from a passing standpoint, they were
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: 31st against the Bears in the league, and they're 24th
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: this week. And they're a 22nd unit in general passing.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: 22nd unit passing.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: It's hard to believe there's nine worse teams at throwing
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the football than the Eagles right now, but okay.
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: That is a fair point. But, I mean, I will
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: say that rushing– I mean, we talked about how they
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: were a better rushing team. They were still only 17th.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: When they were at their best, they were average.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: Against the Bears, right. They ranked 17th.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: And then 26th against the Rams and then 21st unit
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: right now, which honestly that's a little bit surprising to
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: me that there are teams significantly better.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: I was just about to say the same. I thought
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: they'd be lower.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: I thought they would be too.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: But, yeah. All right, well.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: The Green Bay Packers exist.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, oh, God, that's a great point. They are just
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: hideous offensively right now.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I think it.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Was the Seahawks, the Browns, and maybe the Patriots. I
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: think those were the bottom four, if I remember correctly.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Bad company. All right, the next two graphs are going
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: to be really important.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into whether or not they've become
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: too predictable and why, right? Okay.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: Definitely.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: So let's first.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: Start off with what we do every week. And I
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: love the new graphics.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Great, by the way.
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: Thank you.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it. This is just the normal offensive
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: efficiency graphic of what they are, how efficient they are
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: from each of their personnel groupings. And like we said,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the way they're constituted right now with not only their injuries,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: but with, yeah, that really from injuries, there are far more.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: They are in far much more 11 personnel than we
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: ever expected them. I'm sure they ever expected they would
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: be in and stayed the same in this game. There
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: are 11 personnel, which is three wide receivers, one running back,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: one tight end on 45 of 58 overall plays. Yeah.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: So that's, that's a lot.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: It is. It is.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's gotta be like close to 80%, right?
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't do the math, but that's probably close as
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: close as, 80% you'll see a team get this team
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: gets 11 personnel.
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: Right. I mean, they, it's like 78%. So you're right there.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: I just did the pull down my little calculator just
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: because I'm the math guy. It doesn't mean I'm going
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: to do it all in my head. I don't, I
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: don't want to say the wrong thing, you know, I
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: didn't want to put you on the spot. I appreciate that.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, listen, that they, that is definitely
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: a big part of what they've had to adapt to.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: And yeah, Out of those packages, they're running pretty well
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: out of 11, 11 of their 19. And again, success
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: from what standpoint that we use is 40% on first down,
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: 50% on second down, convert, convert. So that's the metrics
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: we use for success, at least in this instance. Their
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: past success just in general was poor, but their running success,
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: you know, not, terrible, particularly out of 11 personnel. Right.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: And out of 12 personnel, again, it was only 11 snaps, so.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: We're not going to make a big deal of it,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: but they obviously didn't pass the ball well or throw
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the ball well.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: Right. And I mean, I will say from a personnel standpoint,
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: when they were in 12, it was pretty balanced in
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: terms of run pass. Just, I think that's worth saying,
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: but when we talk about formationally, that's when it'll get
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: a little bit less.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: So this is part of the adaptation of the show.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: And I asked Sam, I said.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: We really, I know we should look into what are
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the Eagles doing when they're under center and what are
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: they doing when they're in shotgun? Because again, it's sort of,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: it hasn't felt, it looks pretty obvious that what I
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: call it, Sam is it's the old offense in new
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: offenses close. Meaning yes, they're going under center.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: They're running a wide zone.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: They're incorporating more of these, you know, the, the concepts are,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: are modernized West coast, but it sure looks like when
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: they're under center, they're just running instead of running that
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: great play action.
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: And then when they're in shotgun, they're, They're passing, and
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that's a tell for a defense every time. So you
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: put together that kind of situational play calling, and what
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: did you find?
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: Well, your gut's right. Let's just say that. I mean,
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: you were 100% right. I mean, they're out of shotgun.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: They were about almost 70% of their plays were passes.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: And when they were under center, almost 80% of their
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: plays were runs, 77%. So I do that.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: What a tell. Yeah, you can't beat. I mean, I mean,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: there are other tells, but that's the biggest tell of all.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: If you're just doing the same thing every time you're
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: making it easy.
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: No variety at all. I mean, it's pretty clear. I mean,
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: even look, when we say shotgun under center, we're we're
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: simplifying formations. I mean, obviously, the way you can have
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: your looks under center and shotgun are different. But as
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: like a pure concept, we're looking just where the quarterback
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: is standing. And that's your determination. I mean, you're simplifying
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: it for the defenses significantly.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: Have some variety.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've only passed the ball. We're four weeks
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: into a season where you've been expecting to see the
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: whole point of this offense is a good marriage of
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: run and play action to be able to pass the
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: ball out of what looks like a run and to
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: be able to run the ball of what looks like
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: a pass, right? They have gone under center, first of all,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: only 17 times, and they've only thrown the ball four
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: times out of that. So I would have never thought,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: even struggling, you could have told me that they would
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: only have four runs under center play action passes through
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: four weeks.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: This is just this week.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: That's just, I'm sorry.
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Through this week.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I meant to, we should also look at it
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: for when we can, right.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: But I'm fairly certain that this has been this graph
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that we're showing for against the Rams would look similar.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: If we did a cumulative guaranteed.
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Almost guaranteed. Yep. Yep.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: All right. Rough. Very, very rough.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Eagles, we'll go to the defense now. Defensive EPA, what
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: do the numbers say here?
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Again, now that we're on defense, negative is good. Right.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: Positive is bad. You look at the Eagles, they're all
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: above the league average. League average is also negative 0.4. 0.04, apologies.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: That would be pretty crazy if the league average was
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: negative 0.4. Regardless, the Eagles have been over it. Every
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: single week, their defense has not put, at even an
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: average level, put the opposing offense in a position to
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: be unsuccessful. So they've just struggled with that. And they're 0.02
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: on the season. And then we look at a passing
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: and a rushing standpoint, it's a little bit different. I mean,
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: the EPA per pass for deep fences averages at negative 0.01.
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: And they were only, they actually were better at it
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: in the Rams game. surprisingly. And it's only because of
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: the turnovers. I mean, that's the only reason, just so
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: you're clear. If there were no, no interceptions, I mean,
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: that would, it would not be that case at all.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: And then Tennessee as well was the other one.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Those numbers. Yeah.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: I was going to say you were giving the cumulative
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: four weeks on the EPA per play pass and rush,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: at least against the Rams.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: You see, you saw some improvement in play and pass.
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, their rush also, just talking about it,
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: I mean, the league average is minus 0.07, and the
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: Eagles have yet to have that. And I know we've
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: talked about how their run defense has been, like, okay
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: this year. Not in this game, at least from an
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: EPA standpoint.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Just haven't been able to put it all together.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: No.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at their defense from
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: a DVOA standpoint versus the Rams and for the season.
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: Again, negative is better, and they were only negative– from
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: an overall standpoint in the first game. Pretty consistently above.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: It was 3.6% against Chicago and then 3.3% LA, and
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: the season's 3.6%. So not a great place to be.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: And then again, we look at passing and rushing, and again,
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: the ranks matter way more. They're the 23rd unit in
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: pass defense and 19th in rushing. defense.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: So, yeah.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: So this is a good qualifier, right?
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Because you said negatives are good numbers for a defense,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: but it's also contextual, right? Minus 7.6 passing DVOA against
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: the Rams might sound good, but it was only ranked 25th.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Okay. So it's not that, that just means they were
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: just okay playing defense past defense against the rain. Well, no,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: they were not that good.
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: They were relative to the rest of the league. No.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Not great.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: No, not great at all.
• 35:26
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• 36:24
  Speaker 1: and up. All right. We, we've been talking about pressure
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: and sack conversion. Now you saw Jonathan Grenard get some pressure.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: You saw, I think Nolan Smith had a sack when
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Grenard was healthy. He was being disruptive, but then of
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: course he went out with an injury. Yeah.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: And I, I started by putting that chart together that
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: we've done each week where we looked at each player's
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: individual contributions. And I think we saved that for like
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: maybe a mid season review, because I think we need
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: to talk about how the overall unit is doing, not
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: individuals because we, Exactly what I said, where their pressures
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: are not turning to sacks, I wanted to show that.
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: I got the league average for pressure rate, sack rate,
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: and pressure to sack. Let's just talk about each of them.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: The NFL average pressure rate, and that's just how many
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: pressures you get over past plays you see, is 38%.
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: The Eagles are at 37.8%. They're right about average.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: They're right about average.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: Which they shouldn't be. They should be above average with
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: the pass rushers that they have.
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: You would think. And the thing is, they were not average.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: They haven't been average in the last two weeks. They've
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: been below average. Right. But then you look at their
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: sack rate. The average NFL sack rate is 6.24%. You
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: look at the Eagles on the season, they're 2.8%. You
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: look at it against the Rams, 1.9%.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: So even though they're getting pressure at league average, they're
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: getting sacks at far under the.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: And then let's look at it from how they're turning
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: their pressures into sacks, right? Right. And that's where it's
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: really important is your finishing, right?
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: The league average is, you know, 16% of pressures turn
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: into sacks. The Eagles on the season, 7.4%. Wow. Against
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: the Rams, 6.3%. Not good.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: No, that's bad.
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: The 0.0% against the Bears is even worse. It is.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: but they have 54 pressures and only four sacks on
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: the season. Wow.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: So that's, that's, it's almost, I don't want to say
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: that's an anomaly because it's four weeks now, but I,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: I kind of feel like if you're going to get
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: pressure at league average rate, and I think that'll improve,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: I suspect I could be wrong.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm Mr.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: Brightside. I don't know. I do feel like the pressure
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: to sack conversion will get a little bit better. Um,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: but I think for what the expectations are being a
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: little bit better is not good enough.
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: Agreed. Agreed. But I did think this was a really
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: interesting result and it kind of fit the theme I've
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: been trying to say is one of the biggest issues
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: with this defense, because you think about it, if you
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: get pressures and you get sacks, it makes your backend better.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: Your defensive backs will play at the level because there's pressure.
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: The quarterback feels urgency is going to make mistakes. Like
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: that's you, you need the front to be. And that's
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: usually something the Eagles do very well. They've historically done
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: very well, but not this year. They're just not getting home.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Do you think that there's, I mean, so they've played
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: in three of the four weeks, they have played offenses
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: that are designed to be McVay slash Shanahan style, right?
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Obviously the Rams, McVay, Ben Johnson's offenses, that And then
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: week one, David Blau's offense is that. Is this just,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: maybe we can explore without having to like do thousands
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: of charts, just like the greater trend. I mean, you
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: already have it here.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: The league average is 16%.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: I just wonder if the Eagles are facing a couple
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: of these offenses compared to maybe some other teams where
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: the ball is just.
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: Designed naturally to get out quickly. I don't know.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm just reaching for excuses, but it just doesn't seem,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: it doesn't compute in my head correctly, you know?
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: I would say that's part of it, but I I'd
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: also say that this just, they can't get the sacks.
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: They just, they can't, they haven't been. And I, and
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: I think, yes, the ball has been getting out probably
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: a little bit faster, but not in every game. I mean,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: I just, they're, they have not been, I mean, we
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: look at the time to throw in the time to
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: pressure stats. We've done that in the past. I mean,
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: they're not that far off from average of the teams
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: that they've been playing. So I think what you're seeing
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: is what you're getting. I don't think that excuse holds
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: full mustard for this team. I think that what you're
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: seeing is what you get against any team, honestly. Maybe
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit better, but I think that's what this
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: team is this year, unfortunately.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Absolutely fair. All right, now we'll sum it all up.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: The four takeaways from this loss against the Rams, Sam,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: go for it.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: Offense couldn't sustain drives. We talked about it. 0 for 12,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: one-third down. That obviously is going to be here. What
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: I just, formation tendencies stood out, right? I mean, they
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: were running almost 80% under center and passing almost 70%
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: from shotgun. Can't do that. Need some variety. Pressure isn't
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: becoming sacks, what we just talked about. You know, their
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: pressure rate is about average, but they're just, they're not
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: able to get it into, like they're about half of
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: the average in terms of converting them into sacks. Not good.
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: Not good at all. Nope. And then I put the
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: run defense struggled because I've made emphasis. The run defense
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: has been okay, but really the defense just struggled. I
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: think that's just probably a more fair thing to say.
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, you look at where they, where they have that,
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: plus 22.7, but they're the 25th unit, right? Yeah. For
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: both run and pass defense.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're right, though, that in order to get
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: your pressures and get your set, you have to put
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: teams in unmanageable down and distances, and if you're not
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: stopping the run, then you're not doing that.
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: So it's fair to point that out.
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but that's the four main takeaways, I'd say.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: All right, Sam. We'll see if the Eagles can improve
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: upon that, and of course, in our next.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Episode, we will preview.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: the Eagles versus the Jaguars in Monday, which could get very,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: very ugly given the injury situation that the Eagles have.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Great charts. I think we've streamlined a lot of the
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: good analytics. And then, of course, I like the takeaways
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: at the end. Hope everybody enjoys and appreciates the adaptation
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: and the evolution of this great show. So for Sam Finkel,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. You have been watching Inside the Data
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: on Inside the Birds.