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Saturday MLB + WNBA Bets 6/28/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Sub guys is towed back with you Better Off Dead. Saturday,
0:06
Speaker 1: June twenty eighth. The slump continues as we go zero
0:10
Speaker 1: in three yesterday. I don't even know what to say, man, Tampa, Baltimore.
0:15
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the type of game where it makes
0:17
Speaker 1: you look as bad as possible, as wrong as possible,
0:21
Speaker 1: as I gave out the under in that game, and
0:23
Speaker 1: it was a twenty two to eight final. But the
0:27
Speaker 1: good thing about it is you're absolutely sure that it's
0:30
Speaker 1: a loser right away, so you can just forget about it.
0:33
Speaker 1: Of course, as I continue to point out, I'm actually
0:36
Speaker 1: putting money on these games right now, so just be
0:39
Speaker 1: aware of that. Of that I am handicapping as if
0:42
Speaker 1: I was anyway giving out what my best plays actually are.
0:47
Speaker 1: That one, of course, was just I mean, sometimes it happens. Man,
0:49
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be right all the time. I mean,
0:52
Speaker 1: obviously you're not gonna be right even close to all
0:54
Speaker 1: the time. So but that one, it's again at least
0:57
Speaker 1: easier to just stomach it because it's just dead right away,
1:01
Speaker 1: so you're just like, okay, we'll move on from that.
1:04
Speaker 1: Sugano actually wasn't that bad in the game, If you
1:08
Speaker 1: look at some of his like peripherals kind of but
1:11
Speaker 1: I mean, he doesn't strike a lot of guys out,
1:12
Speaker 1: but he just gave up a lot of hits. He
1:14
Speaker 1: was too hitable. And then I don't know what happened
1:16
Speaker 1: with Peppio. He was gone from that game really early.
1:20
Speaker 1: He just got rocked. It's just hard to figure out
1:22
Speaker 1: some of these games, man. And then we had Seattle, Texas.
1:25
Speaker 1: I liked the under and that one. I gave that
1:27
Speaker 1: one out. That one was looking decent. Well I don't
1:32
Speaker 1: know about decent, but it was looking like it could
1:33
Speaker 1: get there once we got into like the fourth inning.
1:35
Speaker 1: I think it was a two to one game, so
1:38
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, you know, it's teetering on the edge.
1:40
Speaker 1: And then it just completely unraveled. And then that one evolved.
1:44
Speaker 1: He was on a pitch count, which I said, I
1:47
Speaker 1: thought that he might be. But at least if you
1:49
Speaker 1: go first five innings, you're at least expecting a guy
1:51
Speaker 1: who's a veteran like that, well he'll probably go like
1:54
Speaker 1: five innings maybe and get you through that. But I
1:56
Speaker 1: think he only went three innings in the game. I
1:59
Speaker 1: think he was on like a pretty serious pitch count
2:02
Speaker 1: of the game, So that sucks. When you have a
2:04
Speaker 1: guy coming back from injury again, you have to try
2:06
Speaker 1: to gauge how deep is this pitcher gonna go into
2:09
Speaker 1: the game. So it is a bit of a risk there,
2:11
Speaker 1: but I liked it. And then Logan Gilbert was okay
2:14
Speaker 1: on the other side, but not good enough to get
2:16
Speaker 1: that thing under. And then the final score looked worse
2:19
Speaker 1: than it actually was because it went into extra innings.
2:22
Speaker 1: I went twelve innings and I think three runs are
2:24
Speaker 1: scored in the extra innings portion of the game, which
2:27
Speaker 1: the ghost Runner is bullshit. Man, If you have an
2:30
Speaker 1: under game goes to extra innings, you're basically doomed. The
2:34
Speaker 1: ghost Runner has to go away. Man, what is that
2:37
Speaker 1: for COVID reasons except oh, it makes the game more exciting.
2:40
Speaker 1: Note doesn't because you're not earning it. It makes it
2:43
Speaker 1: into some bullshit arcade game. If you want that, just
2:47
Speaker 1: go see the Savannah Bananas man, because it's way more
2:50
Speaker 1: entertaining than that. So yeah, I'm fuck all that. So
2:54
Speaker 1: that was a loss, and Kansas City absolutely should have won. Dude,
2:58
Speaker 1: Kansas City, they were winning the game, came back from
3:00
Speaker 1: a three to one deficit, they're winning four to three.
3:02
Speaker 1: In the middle of the game. Cameron wasn't the best,
3:05
Speaker 1: but Dustin May was awful in the game. And then
3:10
Speaker 1: Kiss of City out hit the Dodgers in that game
3:12
Speaker 1: eleven to four, and they lost the game. I mean,
3:15
Speaker 1: you almost never see that the Dodgers had more runs
3:18
Speaker 1: than hits in the game. It's just such bullshit, man,
3:21
Speaker 1: It's that one is that should have been a win.
3:24
Speaker 1: I mean, that was just an unlucky set of circumstances.
3:27
Speaker 1: You almost never see you have a team that out
3:29
Speaker 1: hits their opponent by almost three times as many hits,
3:34
Speaker 1: you're almost always gonna get that win. And it was
3:36
Speaker 1: at an underdog price. And then of course you almost
3:40
Speaker 1: never see a team get more runs scored than the
3:42
Speaker 1: amount of hits that they put up. So that was
3:44
Speaker 1: just a bad set of circumstances. That one should have
3:47
Speaker 1: been a winner. The other two were losers. That one
3:49
Speaker 1: should have been a win. We'll move on to today.
3:52
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give up two baseball plays today. Aaron, what's
3:54
Speaker 1: up man? Oh, thank you sir. Hopefully this gives you
3:57
Speaker 1: some tower game fix even though there's no banter here.
4:01
Speaker 1: Maybe I should do a sports show, get cole back,
4:03
Speaker 1: maybe do a sports show. We were arguing about shit,
4:07
Speaker 1: because nobody agrees with me on anything, and have like,
4:10
Speaker 1: you know, I have a sports show with multiple dudes,
4:13
Speaker 1: sort of like Tower Game, but not really. I don't know.
4:15
Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm thinking about right now, Charles,
4:17
Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Yeah? The Kansas City thing that should
4:21
Speaker 1: have been a win. I mean, obviously that was a
4:23
Speaker 1: play that the public would absolutely hate, Like nobody was
4:26
Speaker 1: gonna want that play yesterday and I did, and it
4:29
Speaker 1: should have won. So it's unfortunate. But again, as I've
4:32
Speaker 1: been saying, I am trying to conserve my money here,
4:36
Speaker 1: so I'm not actually putting money on it, but that
4:37
Speaker 1: one would be one that makes me really enraged. That
4:41
Speaker 1: one is way more enraging than like a loss like
4:45
Speaker 1: the twenty two to eight game, which is just way
4:47
Speaker 1: easier to take. Let me zoom in on this year.
4:49
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about WNBA first briefly, swoll King cole Yeah,
4:56
Speaker 1: I mean it could be I don't know if it
4:58
Speaker 1: would be Better Off Dead or could it could be
5:00
Speaker 1: like a spinoff of Better Off Dead. That's me and
5:02
Speaker 1: him call it something else like I do with Clint
5:04
Speaker 1: with bald where we only have two episodes. But I'd
5:08
Speaker 1: have to come up with a name for it because
5:09
Speaker 1: you basically have like a jacked dude with Cole and
5:13
Speaker 1: then me, who's I don't know, kind of the fat
5:17
Speaker 1: heel of the show maybe, but we're also both complete idiots,
5:20
Speaker 1: so I don't know, man, although not really, but we
5:23
Speaker 1: come across that way. Maybe a WNBA. We have one
5:27
Speaker 1: game Washington at Dallas. Eighty six percent of the tickets
5:31
Speaker 1: are on Washington as is too and a half point
5:33
Speaker 1: road favorite Dallas as eighty percent of the cash on them. Now,
5:39
Speaker 1: this is a game where Dallas is coming off a
5:41
Speaker 1: big game. Dude. They played Indiana last night and they
5:44
Speaker 1: did lose. Now, Caitlin Clark did not come back for
5:47
Speaker 1: that game, so I told you the line was indicating
5:49
Speaker 1: she wasn't gonna play. She did not play. So it
5:52
Speaker 1: was gonna be a big game for both teams really
5:56
Speaker 1: because it was gonna be Kaitlyn Clark against Becker's. But
5:58
Speaker 1: of course the the rematch of the College Final four
6:03
Speaker 1: game there didn't happen because Clark was not there. It
6:06
Speaker 1: was still a big game for both teams and Indiana
6:08
Speaker 1: had a lead almost the entire way, and Dallas caught
6:11
Speaker 1: all the way up and almost won the game late.
6:14
Speaker 1: So it was a big game though still. I mean,
6:17
Speaker 1: Indiana draws a lot of focus from a lot of
6:19
Speaker 1: teams anyway. So Dallas coming off that and having no
6:22
Speaker 1: rest on a back to back although they are staying
6:24
Speaker 1: at home, I don't love the spot for Dallas here.
6:27
Speaker 1: But Washington's also in a bad spot is they just
6:30
Speaker 1: pulled off multiple straight upsets and they just beat Dallas
6:34
Speaker 1: by three in Washington not that long ago, so it's
6:37
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a revenge spot for Dallas.
6:40
Speaker 1: But after Washington did that, they beatn Minnesota and Vegas
6:43
Speaker 1: on the road, so they pulled off two straight upsets.
6:46
Speaker 1: So Washington kind of flying above their pay grade right now.
6:50
Speaker 1: So this is a hard game to handicap because both
6:53
Speaker 1: teams earn't spots where I would want to fade them.
6:56
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to do anything with the game.
6:57
Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Dallas side for
6:59
Speaker 1: what it's worth, getting the points as the home underdog.
7:02
Speaker 1: And in that game that was at Washington, I what
7:06
Speaker 1: was the line in that game. Let's see Washington was
7:09
Speaker 1: five and a half at home, which it looks like
7:11
Speaker 1: there was some weird line movement in that one too,
7:13
Speaker 1: probably some personnel changes. So if Washington was five and
7:17
Speaker 1: a half in that game, then being two and a
7:19
Speaker 1: half on the road, it's pretty close to where the
7:21
Speaker 1: numbers should be, so not really a way off line
7:25
Speaker 1: or anything like that. So that's all I really have
7:27
Speaker 1: to say about that. Both teams are in bad spots.
7:30
Speaker 1: As I leave the comment up on the screen there, Yeah,
7:33
Speaker 1: greased up our tards. Yeah, I don't know, Dangerous. There's
7:38
Speaker 1: a chance that Dangerous comes back. I mean, I don't
7:41
Speaker 1: even know. Man, I don't want to say what's going on,
7:43
Speaker 1: but there's a chance that Dangerous is gonna be back
7:46
Speaker 1: in some capacity. There may be a chance the Tower
7:48
Speaker 1: Gang is back in some capacity. We don't know what's
7:51
Speaker 1: gonna happen yet. Man. It sucks when there's a rift
7:54
Speaker 1: and your friends are fighting or your fathers are fighting.
7:59
Speaker 1: Say together for the kids, man, All right, baseball, let's
8:03
Speaker 1: go A's at Yankees here. The Yankees took the first
8:07
Speaker 1: game of the series three zero yesterday, but the A's
8:11
Speaker 1: didn't use a lot of their bullpen at all. They
8:13
Speaker 1: only use one relief pitcher, So the Yankees used more
8:15
Speaker 1: of their bullpen, but the A's bullpen is terrible, so
8:18
Speaker 1: I don't know how much that really even matters. Then
8:21
Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching, JP Sears is pitching, and
8:23
Speaker 1: he's the guy that the Yankees traded away, and I
8:27
Speaker 1: was kind of laughing at it for a little while
8:29
Speaker 1: because Sears was actually doing pretty well for a while
8:32
Speaker 1: last year. He has already faced the Yankees, so that
8:35
Speaker 1: type of angle isn't gonna come into play here. Where Oh,
8:37
Speaker 1: this pitcher's gonna step up the first time he faces
8:40
Speaker 1: the team that got rid of him. That's not gonna
8:42
Speaker 1: be the case here. Sears. Also, I don't think he's
8:45
Speaker 1: done that well when he's faced the Yankees in that capacity.
8:49
Speaker 1: This year he hasn't done well either, with a five
8:51
Speaker 1: point four to four ERA and one point three to
8:53
Speaker 1: three WHIP. Although remember, pitching at that A's stadium is
8:57
Speaker 1: very difficult, and Sears has a lot a ton of
9:00
Speaker 1: home runs eighteen home runs, but twelve of them have
9:03
Speaker 1: been in that home stadium at Sacramento, that horrible triple
9:08
Speaker 1: A steam that allows a lot of home runs. So
9:10
Speaker 1: he has been better on the road to the four
9:12
Speaker 1: point six to two r and the road, which is
9:14
Speaker 1: at least more serviceable. This month, he has a bad
9:18
Speaker 1: six point eight r and his team has lost four
9:20
Speaker 1: of his five starts and lost three starts prior to that,
9:24
Speaker 1: and they actually won his start against the Yankees earlier
9:27
Speaker 1: this year at the A Stadium, Sears actually held him
9:31
Speaker 1: to one run in five innings and they won that one.
9:33
Speaker 1: But that means the Yankees are recently familiar with him,
9:35
Speaker 1: because that was only a month ago. Basically, again, he
9:38
Speaker 1: hasn't done well this month of the six point eight
9:41
Speaker 1: RRA and five starts, but he actually does have a
9:44
Speaker 1: twenty to eight strike out walk ratio, so the strikeout
9:47
Speaker 1: walk ratio is not that bad, but it is five
9:50
Speaker 1: to five over his last two outings, and he got
9:52
Speaker 1: kind of rocked by Houston, giving up three home runs,
9:56
Speaker 1: five and runs, no strikeouts, three walks, and three and
9:59
Speaker 1: a third. That's a bad outing. Bounce back a little
10:02
Speaker 1: bit with a good outing against Cleveland. Decent outing, although
10:06
Speaker 1: Cleveland's not a very good offense. Yankees obviously definitely a
10:09
Speaker 1: good offense, and Seiers doesn't do well against him in
10:12
Speaker 1: sixty one at bats fourteen to six strike a walk
10:15
Speaker 1: ratio not great three to eleven batting average allowed in
10:18
Speaker 1: oneenty sixty two ops goalds Schmidt four for seven with
10:23
Speaker 1: a home runoff and does particularly well against him. Of course,
10:26
Speaker 1: Stanton is now back for the Yankees, which is gonna
10:28
Speaker 1: help their offense. Don't love Sears in this spot. Don't
10:31
Speaker 1: love the A's bullpen, even though they are arrested. Clark
10:34
Speaker 1: Schmidt pitching for the Yankees, and he's kind of turned
10:37
Speaker 1: his season around recently because I have never thought he
10:40
Speaker 1: was that good, but right now his numbers are actually
10:42
Speaker 1: good two point eight four ERA, one point zero six WHIP.
10:46
Speaker 1: This month, he's been really good with a one point
10:49
Speaker 1: three ERA twenty three to six strike a walk ratio,
10:53
Speaker 1: seven no hit innings last time out against Baltimore, three
10:57
Speaker 1: straight starts without allowing a run, although they were against
10:59
Speaker 1: Kansas City Anaheim Baltimore not the greatest offenses, but he
11:03
Speaker 1: also allowed no runs again against Anaheim to close May.
11:07
Speaker 1: So four of his last five starts he's allowed no runs,
11:10
Speaker 1: which is pretty much insane. So he is actually pitching
11:14
Speaker 1: really well right now. He's better at home with a
11:16
Speaker 1: two point three home e RA against the A's he
11:19
Speaker 1: hasn't done well in a small sample size of nineteen
11:23
Speaker 1: four to four strike at walker ratio three to sixteen
11:25
Speaker 1: average and one thousand and forty eight oh ps. But
11:28
Speaker 1: obviously I am willing to uh say that Clark Schmidt
11:32
Speaker 1: has the edge over JP Sears in this game based
11:35
Speaker 1: on you know, the recent performance. Obviously Schmid has been better,
11:39
Speaker 1: but you're laying a huge price if you want the Yankees.
11:41
Speaker 1: They're up for minus two forty to minus two to
11:43
Speaker 1: fifty five, eighty three percent to tickets, ninety three percent
11:46
Speaker 1: of the cash total is high as well, up from
11:48
Speaker 1: nine juice to the under the nine juice the over.
11:51
Speaker 1: I could see the over happening in this game because
11:53
Speaker 1: we have the Yankees bullpen not very rested, so Schmidt
11:56
Speaker 1: is out of the game, and Schmidt hasn't done that
11:58
Speaker 1: well against the Yankees. Again the a's excuse me, in
12:01
Speaker 1: the past, Sears is likely to give up runs in
12:04
Speaker 1: this game, and then the a's bullpen is probably not
12:06
Speaker 1: going to help you out either. So the over seems
12:08
Speaker 1: to make sense here with fifty four percent of tickets
12:10
Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of cash on the over probably the
12:13
Speaker 1: best lean and maybe the other way to look at
12:16
Speaker 1: it is Yankees over their team total. Yankees are taking
12:20
Speaker 1: the money on the money lineup from minus two forty
12:23
Speaker 1: minus two to fifty five eighty three percent of tickets,
12:25
Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash. But I wouldn't lay
12:27
Speaker 1: a price like that, Probably wouldn't even want to lay
12:29
Speaker 1: the run line with them. I think it's just too
12:32
Speaker 1: much of a price on a public team like that,
12:34
Speaker 1: and instead team total over for the Yankees might be
12:37
Speaker 1: the way to go. All that. You're probably asking them
12:38
Speaker 1: to score about six runs in the game, but they
12:41
Speaker 1: might be able to do that against Sears plus the
12:44
Speaker 1: A's bullpen. Probably the way that I look at that.
12:47
Speaker 1: Minnesota at Detroit Detroit I believe was able to Oh, no,
12:51
Speaker 1: Detroit lost, excuse say they did lose yesterday four to one.
12:54
Speaker 1: So Minnesota able to kind of start They're trying to
12:57
Speaker 1: start turning in a round man, because Minnesota has been
12:59
Speaker 1: playing pretty bad baseball recently. They wound up going with
13:03
Speaker 1: Festa as their pitcher yesterday. It was when I did
13:05
Speaker 1: the show yesterday they hadn't decided on a pitcher. Festa pitched.
13:09
Speaker 1: Twins used more of their bullpen yesterday, and their bullpen
13:11
Speaker 1: hasn't been as good as Detroit's. So Detroit's bullpen is
13:14
Speaker 1: probably somewhat better shape here because they had to kind
13:18
Speaker 1: of do a bullpen game yesterday, so they kind of
13:20
Speaker 1: expected that. Gipson Long got them into the sixth inning though,
13:23
Speaker 1: and did decently, So Tiger's bullpen is the better of
13:26
Speaker 1: the two and is in better shape here, but the
13:29
Speaker 1: starting pitching might not necessarily favored Detroit here. Maybe I
13:33
Speaker 1: just liked Bailey Ober too much still, and I know
13:36
Speaker 1: he has not been good recently. His heras up to
13:38
Speaker 1: four point nine one point three seven whip, his splits
13:42
Speaker 1: are almost equal, so home row doesn't really matter. He's
13:46
Speaker 1: been awful this month, there's no doubt about it. Eight
13:48
Speaker 1: point five one ERA in four starts. Twins have lost
13:52
Speaker 1: six starts in a row that he's made, but their
13:54
Speaker 1: offense hasn't helped him out either. Nineteen to seven string
13:58
Speaker 1: a walk ratio this month, but six walks came in
14:01
Speaker 1: one really bad outing against Texas, so his last two
14:04
Speaker 1: starts he actually has a twelve zero struckout walk ratio,
14:08
Speaker 1: so I'm not really ready to say he's necessarily in
14:11
Speaker 1: bad form. It's just the home run ball. Has been
14:14
Speaker 1: a massive problem for him. He's allowed ten home runs
14:18
Speaker 1: this month in four starts, which is really absurd. I mean,
14:23
Speaker 1: that's just insane. That's the reason why he gave up
14:24
Speaker 1: seven runs last time out against Seattle, But he only
14:27
Speaker 1: gave up seven hits when seven innings, struck out seven
14:30
Speaker 1: and didn't walk anybody. You almost never see a line
14:33
Speaker 1: like that like that almost always is gonna correspond to
14:35
Speaker 1: allowing like maybe three four runs. But because of all
14:38
Speaker 1: the home runs, bunch of runs scored. So I do
14:41
Speaker 1: think Ober gave up the hard hits at inopportune times
14:45
Speaker 1: in that game. But he is not pitching well right now,
14:48
Speaker 1: so all that is, you know, to be taken into account.
14:51
Speaker 1: It looks like he does have good command right now,
14:53
Speaker 1: but he's given up really hard contact, so it's hard
14:55
Speaker 1: to gauge what he's gonna do here. His numbers against
14:58
Speaker 1: Detroit lifetime were actually really good. In one hundred and
15:01
Speaker 1: three at bats, he has a thirty six to four
15:04
Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio against them, one seventy five average
15:07
Speaker 1: allowed in five to fifty five ohps, So good numbers
15:12
Speaker 1: for Ober against Detroit's bats there, So that might be
15:16
Speaker 1: something to take into account, he might actually match up
15:18
Speaker 1: pretty well against them. He's something against Casey my so
15:21
Speaker 1: you know, I keep saying this guy's due for regression,
15:24
Speaker 1: and it did start a little bit. He still has
15:26
Speaker 1: a two point eight eighty RA this year, which I
15:28
Speaker 1: think that's going to continue to go up one point
15:30
Speaker 1: two four whip. He has been better at home though,
15:33
Speaker 1: one point eight four HOMEYRA, so this home stadium has
15:37
Speaker 1: been really good for Detroit. Detroit has won his last
15:40
Speaker 1: two starts, and he actually has been decent this month
15:43
Speaker 1: with a three ERA nineteen to six strikeout walk ratio
15:47
Speaker 1: not terrible. He continues to be pretty serviceable. Really, not
15:51
Speaker 1: a whole lot of regression here. Had a couple of
15:54
Speaker 1: kind of ugly starts in there, kind of right of
15:56
Speaker 1: the ship, and he still only allowed more than three
15:58
Speaker 1: or and runs in two starts this see and never
16:01
Speaker 1: more than four, so he's been consistent against Minnesota. He
16:05
Speaker 1: does have decent numbers as well. In fifty eight at
16:07
Speaker 1: bats two fifty nine average allowed six to fifty one ohps,
16:12
Speaker 1: nine to four strike a walk ratio is not that great,
16:14
Speaker 1: So it's probably not the worst matchup for Myes, but
16:17
Speaker 1: it does look like the money is coming in on
16:19
Speaker 1: the Minnesota side, so the market Reid is on Minnesota
16:23
Speaker 1: Detroit down for minus one forty five to minus one
16:25
Speaker 1: thirty eight. It almost looks too easy to play Detroit,
16:27
Speaker 1: right because they have a way better record than Minnesota.
16:30
Speaker 1: But Ober might have the better of the pitching match
16:33
Speaker 1: up here, and I just think in general, I would
16:35
Speaker 1: say Ober is the better of the two pitchers despite
16:37
Speaker 1: what their numbers look like. Eighty nine percent of tickets
16:40
Speaker 1: only eighty seven percent of the cash on Detroit, so
16:43
Speaker 1: they are obviously a very public team with less of
16:46
Speaker 1: the money coming in on them. I just don't think
16:48
Speaker 1: it's enough to actually get there with the play on Minnesota.
16:50
Speaker 1: Given everything that I just said, I also might look
16:54
Speaker 1: for an under, maybe even in the first five innings.
16:57
Speaker 1: Total has gone up a little bit from eight and
16:58
Speaker 1: a half to nine. Sixty percent of tickets on the under,
17:01
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on the over, so
17:03
Speaker 1: the money looks like it's a little bit on the
17:05
Speaker 1: over and over over. But both starting pitchers look like
17:09
Speaker 1: they do have a decent matchup here, so I am
17:12
Speaker 1: kind of leaning more towards an under early in the game,
17:15
Speaker 1: and then I would worry about Minnesota's bullpen not being
17:18
Speaker 1: a good form recently. Detroit's bullpen maybe a little bit
17:22
Speaker 1: less of a concern than Minnesota's later in the game,
17:25
Speaker 1: but maybe a little bit more of a concern later
17:27
Speaker 1: in the game with at least one of the bullpens.
17:29
Speaker 1: So I think first five inning under might make sense
17:32
Speaker 1: in that one. I would slightly lean Minnesota just because
17:35
Speaker 1: of the market read, but I don't love it. Mets
17:37
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh that was a game that I got right
17:40
Speaker 1: yesterday with my leen. I told you I had three
17:43
Speaker 1: ugly underdog leans and two of them didn't even hit.
17:46
Speaker 1: This one certainly did with Pittsburgh against the Mets. David
17:49
Speaker 1: Peterson was awful in the game. Mets didn't use much
17:53
Speaker 1: of their bullpen, though, so we do have somewhat rested
17:56
Speaker 1: Mets bullpen now after yesterday. But I don't know if
17:59
Speaker 1: that's gonna help. Even though Pittsburgh's bullpen is definitely awful.
18:02
Speaker 1: Mets have a better bullpen, so they do have that advantage.
18:05
Speaker 1: Mets have the better offense, But the Mets might have
18:07
Speaker 1: to go to their bullpen early again here man, because
18:10
Speaker 1: Paul Blackburn is not a guy that inspires much confidence here.
18:13
Speaker 1: He has not been good so far six point six
18:16
Speaker 1: to two ERA, one point seventy five whip. He's been
18:20
Speaker 1: better on the road four point twenty six ERA, but
18:23
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's a whole lot that we
18:24
Speaker 1: can really gain from looking at that. It's a small
18:26
Speaker 1: sample size overall. On the whole season, He's only pitched
18:29
Speaker 1: in the month of June, has a thirteen to seven
18:31
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio. That's not good either. He went
18:35
Speaker 1: five innings once in his first start against the Dodgers,
18:38
Speaker 1: and then every start beyond that was bad, and they've
18:41
Speaker 1: lost his last three starts, so nothing really inspiring a
18:44
Speaker 1: whole lot of confidence here. Against Pittsburgh, they haven't really
18:47
Speaker 1: seen him, so that's at least somewhat of a good
18:50
Speaker 1: sign for Blackburn. They only have nine at bats against them,
18:52
Speaker 1: two hitters have seen him before. They only have a
18:55
Speaker 1: two twenty two average and five point fifty six ops,
18:59
Speaker 1: so Blackburn is pretty unfamiliar to Pittsburgh's hitters, so at
19:02
Speaker 1: least he has that advantage where a lot of times
19:04
Speaker 1: when a lineup has not seen a pitcher, they have
19:06
Speaker 1: to kind of figure him out. But Blackburn's not like
19:09
Speaker 1: this young guy where there's not a lot of tape
19:10
Speaker 1: on him, so Pittsburgh at least can kind of like
19:13
Speaker 1: consult some like Major League Baseball film and whatever and
19:16
Speaker 1: figure out, oh, this guy's throwing this. But of course
19:20
Speaker 1: that does differ from a you know, an in game environment.
19:22
Speaker 1: But then again, Blackburn's not really that difficult to figure out,
19:26
Speaker 1: like he's kind of a just a journeyman junk pitcher,
19:29
Speaker 1: so he still might not do that well. Here he's
19:32
Speaker 1: up against Bailey Falter, who has actually been pretty good
19:35
Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh. I know, Paul Skeens gets all the accolades
19:38
Speaker 1: and skins is excellent, but Falter kind of flying under
19:41
Speaker 1: the radar here, has been pretty good this year. Three
19:44
Speaker 1: point five to nine ERA, one point one to eight
19:46
Speaker 1: whip three point one to eighty RA at home, so
19:49
Speaker 1: he's been good at home this month. He hasn't been
19:52
Speaker 1: that good though. The five point one two ERA in
19:54
Speaker 1: four starts a ten to nine strike a walk ratio,
19:57
Speaker 1: though most of it was because he walked five guys
20:00
Speaker 1: and only struck out one in his last outing. He's
20:02
Speaker 1: not really a strikeout guy, though, so you have to
20:05
Speaker 1: take that into account. He just doesn't record a lot
20:08
Speaker 1: of strikeouts, but he doesn't put a ton of guys
20:10
Speaker 1: on base, doesn't give up a lot of hits, so
20:12
Speaker 1: that's kind of that's how he operates. Man, So he's
20:15
Speaker 1: been able to do it this year. He's only allowed
20:18
Speaker 1: more than three on runs I think in three starts
20:21
Speaker 1: all season. Hasn't allowed more than four in any start
20:24
Speaker 1: this month. Last three starts, he's gone five innings in each.
20:27
Speaker 1: His team has actually won a bunch of his starts recently.
20:30
Speaker 1: They've actually won seven of his last nine starts, so
20:34
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has actually been winning behind him and up against
20:38
Speaker 1: the Mets. His numbers they're mediocre. I mean, considering the
20:42
Speaker 1: Mets are good offense, this isn't that bad. And eighty
20:44
Speaker 1: one at bats fifteen to nine Straggle walk ratio is
20:47
Speaker 1: not that great, but Lindor has five of the walks,
20:50
Speaker 1: so it looks like he's been pitching around him a
20:52
Speaker 1: little bit too. Seventy two average seven to thirty six obs.
20:56
Speaker 1: Not horrific numbers, I mean, pretty much in that mediocre
20:59
Speaker 1: range where it could go either way. NIMO. If you
21:01
Speaker 1: want player props, hits plus runs bless RBIs is always
21:04
Speaker 1: what I recommend because with total bases, you get nothing
21:07
Speaker 1: for a walk, So I like hits Puss runs withss
21:10
Speaker 1: RBIs better. Nimo is six or fourteen with a home
21:13
Speaker 1: run and a walk off of him. Overall, I prefer
21:17
Speaker 1: Falter over Blackburn. So I think the way that I
21:19
Speaker 1: would look at this is probably Pittsburgh first five innings
21:22
Speaker 1: would probably be the lean here. Mets are down for
21:24
Speaker 1: minus one fifty to minus one thirty seven, sixty seven
21:26
Speaker 1: percent to take it, sixty nine percent of the cash.
21:29
Speaker 1: But what I think we see here is the Mets
21:30
Speaker 1: are a public team. Again, They're probably favored by too
21:33
Speaker 1: much on the road. I mean, should Paul Blackburn be
21:35
Speaker 1: this much of a favorite against anybody? I don't know.
21:38
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the Mets have a better, better bullpen,
21:40
Speaker 1: better offense. Mets who are on a huge skid though,
21:43
Speaker 1: and they're still not playing well. I mean they lost yesterday.
21:46
Speaker 1: I do prefer Fault over Blackburn. I think he might
21:49
Speaker 1: have the upper hand of the matchup, So probably would
21:52
Speaker 1: look to Pittsburgh money line in the first five innings
21:54
Speaker 1: and not worry about Pittsburgh's bullpen because of course they're
21:58
Speaker 1: not very good. Speaking of bullpens, that might not be
22:01
Speaker 1: very good, even though Tampa's is actually pretty good, Baltimore's isn't.
22:05
Speaker 1: But both bullpens got really really rocked in this game yesterday,
22:09
Speaker 1: giving up thirty runs. Baltimore actually was losing six to
22:13
Speaker 1: nothing in the second inning, and they want up winning
22:15
Speaker 1: the game twenty two to eight. You'll never see anything
22:18
Speaker 1: like that again. I don't want to think about it.
22:20
Speaker 1: I thought that the starting pitchers would do well in
22:23
Speaker 1: that game. It was not even close. This game is
22:25
Speaker 1: gonna be the battle of the Zachs, which I think
22:27
Speaker 1: actually has happened this year already. Though maybe I'm wrong
22:30
Speaker 1: about that, but I do think these pitchers matched up
22:33
Speaker 1: I think recently, but I'll look in a minute. Zach
22:35
Speaker 1: Lttel pitching for Tampa's numbers are good this year three
22:38
Speaker 1: point seven eighty RA, one point one WHIP, although I
22:41
Speaker 1: really don't think he's as good as his numbers would suggest.
22:44
Speaker 1: He's a little bit worse on the road four point
22:47
Speaker 1: one to eight ERA on the road, but he's been
22:49
Speaker 1: good this month. He has an eighteen to zero strike
22:52
Speaker 1: a walk ratio. He hasn't walked anybody in four starts
22:55
Speaker 1: this month, and though Tampa lost his last three outings.
22:58
Speaker 1: One of them was against Baltimore where they lost five
23:01
Speaker 1: to one, but he pitched pretty well in that game
23:04
Speaker 1: three point five two ERA this month, so he actually
23:06
Speaker 1: is pitching well this month, going six innings in three
23:10
Speaker 1: out of the four starts as well. Tampa had won
23:13
Speaker 1: a bunch of starts in a row behind him prior
23:15
Speaker 1: to the last three as well, but he's he has
23:17
Speaker 1: not stopped pitching well, it's just he stopped getting run
23:21
Speaker 1: support in a lot of cases here. So Lttel is
23:24
Speaker 1: actually in pretty good form right now. Against Baltimore. He
23:27
Speaker 1: does not have good numbers though in one hundred and
23:29
Speaker 1: four at bats, they're very familiar with them. He has
23:31
Speaker 1: a good strike out walk ratio again twenty to three,
23:34
Speaker 1: but he gives up hard contact man He's allowed six
23:37
Speaker 1: home runs to them a two eighty eight average eight
23:39
Speaker 1: to twenty eight oh ps, and Gunner Henderson specifically really
23:44
Speaker 1: does well against him, seven for eighteen of two home
23:46
Speaker 1: runs too walks, so again, player prop potential on that one.
23:51
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure that I expect Lttel to do
23:53
Speaker 1: particularly well here, especially because Baltimore just saw him, so
23:57
Speaker 1: he may struggle in this game. A little bit. Zach
23:59
Speaker 1: Efflyn pitching for Baltimore not having a good run here recently.
24:03
Speaker 1: He started out pretty well. He had a late start
24:06
Speaker 1: to the season coming back from injury and was pitching
24:08
Speaker 1: well for a little bit, but recently not been pitching
24:11
Speaker 1: that well, and I he kind of gives me like
24:13
Speaker 1: he puts up similar numbers to Lattel in a way,
24:17
Speaker 1: even though you wouldn't see it here. With his ZRA
24:18
Speaker 1: at five point four to six whip at one point
24:21
Speaker 1: three to eight, that's obviously not good. He's been better
24:24
Speaker 1: at home with a four point three to two ERA, right.
24:27
Speaker 1: He did pitch against Tampa, but it was in a
24:29
Speaker 1: different game though, so the Zachs did not match up
24:31
Speaker 1: against each other. He got demolished by Tampa at Tampa, though,
24:35
Speaker 1: of course, steinburn Or Field not an easy place to
24:38
Speaker 1: pitch when he gave up seven runs in five innings
24:41
Speaker 1: two to two straggle walk ratio not good. This month
24:43
Speaker 1: seven point four ERA, eighteen to five straggle walk ratio
24:47
Speaker 1: is not that bad, but he's allowed six home runs,
24:49
Speaker 1: thirty five hits and twenty and two thirds innings, and
24:52
Speaker 1: over the last two starts he allowed twenty two hits
24:56
Speaker 1: in eight innings, thirteen in runs and five home runs.
24:59
Speaker 1: Over that, this man had a six to four strike
25:01
Speaker 1: out walk ratio. But again, one of the starts is
25:05
Speaker 1: at Steinberner Field, which is a tough place to pitch,
25:08
Speaker 1: and then he had to pitch against the Yankees in
25:09
Speaker 1: the Bronx but still he did get wrecked in those
25:12
Speaker 1: two starts, even though those are not easy places to pitch,
25:15
Speaker 1: and against Tampa in general, he has not been good.
25:18
Speaker 1: In sixty six at bats. He's given up five home
25:20
Speaker 1: runs to five different hitters, three sixty four average, one
25:23
Speaker 1: thousand and sixty seven ops, even though the thirteen to
25:26
Speaker 1: four strake out walk ratio is not that bad. So
25:29
Speaker 1: I'm thinking the Zachs don't have good matchup numbers here
25:33
Speaker 1: Man's even though Lttel is in good form right now,
25:37
Speaker 1: both Zachs might struggle in this game. And you know,
25:39
Speaker 1: you don't want anything to do with these bullpens here
25:41
Speaker 1: unless you're gonna be like betting on the bullpens to
25:44
Speaker 1: do really bad in this game. Because he got Tampa.
25:48
Speaker 1: Their bullpen is completely worn out right now after yesterday,
25:51
Speaker 1: and Baltimore's bullpen stinks, So I actually thinking over. It's
25:55
Speaker 1: probably the way to look in this game, although we
25:56
Speaker 1: see money disagreeing with me coming in on the under,
25:59
Speaker 1: with sixty percent of tickets on the over, ninety three
26:02
Speaker 1: percent of cash on the under, and total, however, has
26:05
Speaker 1: gone up a little bit from nine and a half
26:07
Speaker 1: to nine and a half. Juice to the over. When
26:08
Speaker 1: you see it's old that high, usually you kind of
26:11
Speaker 1: want to take notice. In the oddsercers are kind of
26:13
Speaker 1: telling you would think this is gonna be a higher
26:14
Speaker 1: scoring game. I do tend to agree with that, even
26:17
Speaker 1: though yesterday's game was so high scoring. A lot of
26:20
Speaker 1: people are probably gonna want to take the over again
26:23
Speaker 1: here just seeing that. But sometimes, I mean a game
26:26
Speaker 1: like that can kind of have a domino effect into
26:28
Speaker 1: the next game, right, because it really affects the bullpends.
26:31
Speaker 1: So I don't hate the over in this game. Baltimore
26:34
Speaker 1: is taking money as well, up from one ten to
26:36
Speaker 1: minus one thirteen. Tampa has been the public side so far,
26:40
Speaker 1: and even after getting wrecked yesterday, Tampa is still the
26:42
Speaker 1: public side. Public doesn't want this Baltimore team that has
26:45
Speaker 1: a bad record, and they're expecting them to bounce back here.
26:48
Speaker 1: Even though Efflyn has a worse cra than Lattel seventy
26:51
Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets only fifty six percent of cash
26:53
Speaker 1: on Tampa. So when you see a public road underdog
26:57
Speaker 1: like this, you usually want to be on the home favorite.
26:59
Speaker 1: So Baltimore is also a lean here, but I don't
27:03
Speaker 1: know if we could trust Baltimore's bullpenal though at least
27:06
Speaker 1: the fact that Tampa used so much of their bullpen
27:08
Speaker 1: yesterday it kind of negates how bad Baltimore's bullpen is.
27:11
Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens in that game. Yeah, twenty
27:14
Speaker 1: two to eight. Crazy result in that game yesterday, and
27:18
Speaker 1: it made me look as wrong as possible, so that
27:20
Speaker 1: really feels good. Seattle Texas the other game I got
27:23
Speaker 1: wrong yesterday, which is not as embarrassing, but we just evolved.
27:28
Speaker 1: He did not. They didn't let him go deep into
27:30
Speaker 1: the game. They didn't let him go as deep as
27:32
Speaker 1: I thought they would. So we're looking at a situation
27:35
Speaker 1: where Seattle and Texas both have good bullpens, but they
27:39
Speaker 1: used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday because they had
27:41
Speaker 1: to go twelve innings yesterday. So I don't know if
27:43
Speaker 1: we really want to deal with some kind of taxed
27:46
Speaker 1: Bullpenz coming into this game. We do have Brian Wu
27:50
Speaker 1: starting for Seattle, and he is obviously a really good
27:52
Speaker 1: pitcher three point one to two ERA, point nine to
27:55
Speaker 1: five whip. He's a bit worse on the road though,
27:58
Speaker 1: away from Seattle, which is a very pitcher friendly park.
28:01
Speaker 1: On the road three point eight three ERA, which is
28:03
Speaker 1: still good, but not as good. He's been good this month.
28:07
Speaker 1: I mean he's usually you're not gonna find a bad
28:10
Speaker 1: month from Wu. Like for the most part, three point
28:12
Speaker 1: nine to six ERA is actually bad by his standards.
28:16
Speaker 1: He's had two roads starts this month, one at Arizona,
28:19
Speaker 1: which is a very difficult park to pitch in against
28:22
Speaker 1: a good offense, so he didn't do well in that start,
28:24
Speaker 1: but he turned it around really did well against the
28:29
Speaker 1: Red Sox, my Red Sox, who are just terrible and
28:32
Speaker 1: they've won. His last two starts went seven innings six innings,
28:36
Speaker 1: a long tour in runs combined over the two only
28:38
Speaker 1: seven hits combined after he one hit shut out the
28:41
Speaker 1: Red Sox for seven innings. Does have a twenty four
28:44
Speaker 1: to six strike a walk ratio this month, so he
28:48
Speaker 1: is pitching well. He's in good form right now, but
28:50
Speaker 1: surprisingly Texas, even though their offense has not been very good,
28:53
Speaker 1: they actually have some good numbers against Wu. Seventy five
28:57
Speaker 1: career at bats, They're pretty familiar with them. Five streggle
29:00
Speaker 1: walk ratio is good. I mean, that's very WU like,
29:03
Speaker 1: but he's a lot of three h seven average to
29:05
Speaker 1: them in eight seventeen ops. Sieger specifically really good against him,
29:10
Speaker 1: five for seven with a home run and a couple walks,
29:13
Speaker 1: no strikeouts is semi and five for thirteen of the
29:15
Speaker 1: home run, So a couple of these Texas hitters do
29:18
Speaker 1: hit him well. So WU doesn't have the advantage of
29:22
Speaker 1: the home road splits here and doesn't have a great
29:24
Speaker 1: matchup necessarily, So I would tread with caution with Wo
29:29
Speaker 1: in this game, even though I know Texas's offense has
29:31
Speaker 1: not been good this season. He's up against Kumar Rocker,
29:35
Speaker 1: who's been pretty tough to figure out. I mean, he's
29:37
Speaker 1: a young guy still trying to figure himself out. Uh
29:40
Speaker 1: six point six eighty RA, one point sixty six whip.
29:43
Speaker 1: Those are obviously bad numbers, but he's been way better
29:46
Speaker 1: at home with a two point one to two er
29:48
Speaker 1: at home, so he has been better at home this month.
29:51
Speaker 1: His last two starts, at least he started to turn
29:54
Speaker 1: it around a little bit, although he still walks too
29:56
Speaker 1: many guys, so he has a ten to four strokegle
29:58
Speaker 1: walk ratio. Of the last two starts, his team won.
30:01
Speaker 1: Both starts, he went at least five innings of both
30:03
Speaker 1: allowed zero two in runs. The problem is they were
30:07
Speaker 1: against the White Sox at Pittsburgh and those are pretty
30:09
Speaker 1: bad offenses. Last time out against Seattle, he pitched at Seattle,
30:13
Speaker 1: which is a pitcher friendly park, and he didn't duell.
30:16
Speaker 1: He only lasted three and a third. He gave up
30:19
Speaker 1: five hits, two walks, three earned runs, two strikeouts. It
30:22
Speaker 1: was not a good outing for him. Rocker in his career,
30:26
Speaker 1: he's been mediocre against Seattle, which is mostly that one
30:30
Speaker 1: start this year. Twenty at bats, two fifty averages at
30:33
Speaker 1: that bad eight twenty five ops, eight to three strike
30:36
Speaker 1: a walk ratios. Very mediocre numbers for Rocker. So what
30:40
Speaker 1: do we do with this game? I mean, I started
30:43
Speaker 1: looking at the market read to see what is that
30:45
Speaker 1: telling me where's the professional money coming? The professional money
30:48
Speaker 1: is actually coming in on Texas. So the pros are
30:50
Speaker 1: actually banking on Rocker, which I mean, I'm not that crazy,
30:56
Speaker 1: So I would not really recommend that, but I wouldn't
30:59
Speaker 1: dis agree with a strong market read like this when
31:01
Speaker 1: I don't really have a strong opinion one way or
31:03
Speaker 1: the other. Seattle's down for minus one forty to minus
31:06
Speaker 1: one nineteen. I think maybe some of the thought is that, well,
31:09
Speaker 1: WU doesn't have good numbers against Texas. He's not as
31:11
Speaker 1: good on the road, so maybe the starting pitching might
31:14
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a wash here in this matchup.
31:18
Speaker 1: So I think that may be the thought that just
31:19
Speaker 1: Seattle should not be this much of a favorite on
31:22
Speaker 1: the road, because a lot of it is that WU
31:24
Speaker 1: is putting up really good numbers in Rocker, isn't. He's
31:27
Speaker 1: not John Rocker, by the way, John Rocker always going
31:30
Speaker 1: to be the best Rocker WU. I mean, Seattle down
31:34
Speaker 1: for mine is one forty one nineteen sixty one percent
31:36
Speaker 1: of tickets on them, eighty four percent of the cash
31:39
Speaker 1: though coming in on Texas. So a strong market read
31:42
Speaker 1: on the Texas side, that's the way to read the market.
31:45
Speaker 1: I mean the total we see conflicting numbers with cash
31:48
Speaker 1: coming in in the over, but the totals dropped a
31:50
Speaker 1: little bit to eight juice to the under We don't
31:53
Speaker 1: really want to touch that. Just keeping in mind. I mean,
31:56
Speaker 1: you have good bullpens, but they're not rested right now.
32:00
Speaker 1: I mean market Reid strong lean on Texas there as
32:04
Speaker 1: far as the market read is concerned, but I will
32:06
Speaker 1: not give it out as a play at all. San
32:08
Speaker 1: Diego at Cincinnati. Cincinnati won yesterday eight to one. Nice
32:13
Speaker 1: win for Cincinnati yesterday. They're playing pretty well right now.
32:18
Speaker 1: This is a game that I could not figure out
32:19
Speaker 1: at all either because Nick Martinez had only gone two
32:22
Speaker 1: winnings in his last couple outings, and they didn't even
32:25
Speaker 1: have him on a starter's schedule, and then all of
32:29
Speaker 1: a sudden, he throws one hundred and twelve pitches and
32:31
Speaker 1: goes eight innings, allowing one hit yesterday and dominates. I mean,
32:35
Speaker 1: it is so hard to figure out what's gonna happen
32:38
Speaker 1: with some of these pitchers. Man. It's like you look
32:39
Speaker 1: at his recent usage and it looks like he's almost
32:42
Speaker 1: out of the starting rotation, and then all of a sudden,
32:44
Speaker 1: he just dominates. It's so hard to figure that out.
32:47
Speaker 1: I mean, I didn't give out a play on this game,
32:49
Speaker 1: but that's just crazy. And Dylan Cees continued to kind
32:52
Speaker 1: of struggle on the road. Even they continues to strike
32:54
Speaker 1: a lot of guys out, but he didn't do that well.
32:56
Speaker 1: San Diego didn't have to use a ton of their
32:58
Speaker 1: bullpend yesterday, so San Diego US have the better boltbend
33:01
Speaker 1: and they're not in as bad shape after yesterday. They
33:05
Speaker 1: did use a couple of relief pitchers, but we're able
33:07
Speaker 1: to rest them a little bit. They got Randy Vazquez pitching,
33:10
Speaker 1: and I still don't trust Vazquez. Even though he's a
33:13
Speaker 1: three point six ERA, which is pretty good, one point
33:16
Speaker 1: three to three whip. I mean, this guy, he still
33:18
Speaker 1: puts way too many guys on base. He's been worse
33:21
Speaker 1: on the road as well, four point one four ERA.
33:23
Speaker 1: So obviously, pitching in San Diego, it's a pitcher friendly park,
33:27
Speaker 1: and now he's pitching at a very hitter friendly park
33:31
Speaker 1: in Cincinnati, so that's gonna be difficult for him coming
33:35
Speaker 1: up a good start, But it was against Kansas City.
33:37
Speaker 1: He went seven innings and he still only had a
33:39
Speaker 1: two to two strike out walk ratio. One thing about Vazquez,
33:42
Speaker 1: his strikeout walk ratio is always pretty much terrible, and
33:46
Speaker 1: this month, in five starts, thirteen to ten strike out
33:49
Speaker 1: walk ratio doesn't really look that great, and he failed
33:54
Speaker 1: to go five innings in the first three starts this month.
33:57
Speaker 1: As a three point six to five ERA this month,
33:59
Speaker 1: which will good, he only allowed more than three and
34:01
Speaker 1: runs once, and actually that goes all the way back
34:04
Speaker 1: to late April. He's only he's only done it more
34:06
Speaker 1: than once. But I still don't like the fact that
34:09
Speaker 1: he doesn't strike guys out and he also walks too
34:11
Speaker 1: many guys. So I don't like Vazquez. I'll be against
34:15
Speaker 1: Cincinnati though they've actually never faced him before. Just kind
34:18
Speaker 1: of surprising Vazquez. I think he has been in the
34:21
Speaker 1: NL for a little while now, but the Reds have
34:23
Speaker 1: never seen him before. So maybe Vazquez has a little
34:26
Speaker 1: bit of an edge there, just in that the unfamiliarity factor.
34:29
Speaker 1: The Reds might have to try to figure him out.
34:32
Speaker 1: But Andrew Abbot is obviously the better of the two
34:35
Speaker 1: starters year, and it's being factored into the line too.
34:38
Speaker 1: But Abbott has been really good this year one point
34:40
Speaker 1: seven to nine e ra point nine to seven whip now,
34:44
Speaker 1: he's been really good, and he hasn't been that much
34:46
Speaker 1: worse at home, even though it's a hitter friendly ballpark.
34:48
Speaker 1: Two point one seventy RA at home. Not that bad,
34:52
Speaker 1: I mean pretty good, all right. His team has won
34:56
Speaker 1: six of his last seven starts, and the last three
34:59
Speaker 1: three in a row. He's been pitching well, and he's
35:02
Speaker 1: regularly pretty much reaching one hundred pitches now. He's been
35:04
Speaker 1: doing it all month. Nineteen to two strike a walk
35:07
Speaker 1: ratio and not a very high strikeout rate but a
35:09
Speaker 1: very low walk rate, not allowing a lot of hits
35:11
Speaker 1: two point two eighty RA this month. Abbot definitely pitching
35:15
Speaker 1: really really well here up against San Diego. Has really
35:19
Speaker 1: good numbers as well. In thirty six at bats, he's
35:23
Speaker 1: allowed four hits, no extravase hits, eleven strikeouts, one walk,
35:28
Speaker 1: a one to eleven average and two forty six ohps.
35:31
Speaker 1: Abbot has dominated San Diego's hitters. So I think we
35:36
Speaker 1: got to be looking maybe at the Abbot side here.
35:38
Speaker 1: Although the public is on Cincinnati and the it looks
35:42
Speaker 1: like the professional money is fading Cincinnati here, I don't
35:45
Speaker 1: really agree with that. There's no way that I really
35:47
Speaker 1: trust Vazcazi, even though of course he does have the
35:49
Speaker 1: unknown factor here. But Abbott, I mean his numbers against
35:53
Speaker 1: San Diego are dominant, so you have to take notice
35:55
Speaker 1: of that. And he's been really good this year. Cincinnati
35:59
Speaker 1: down for my fifty five to minus one forty seven,
36:01
Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets, only sixty two percent of
36:04
Speaker 1: the cash, So that market read does give me pause.
36:06
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna actually recommend a play on Cincinnati,
36:09
Speaker 1: and if I did, because I don't like their bullpen,
36:12
Speaker 1: I would probably limit it to a first five inning
36:14
Speaker 1: play on Cincinnati, but you would have to lay like
36:17
Speaker 1: a money line price there, so maybe you would go
36:19
Speaker 1: like minus a half run on the run line first
36:22
Speaker 1: five innings for Cincinnati. Maybe that makes sense. Uh. The
36:26
Speaker 1: money's coming in on the under though, fifty eight percent
36:28
Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety five percent of cash on the under.
36:30
Speaker 1: Total dropped a little bit from nine and a half
36:32
Speaker 1: to nine and a half with juice on the under.
36:35
Speaker 1: It is a hitter friendly park the under. I could
36:38
Speaker 1: see the arguments for it, just in that Vazquez again
36:41
Speaker 1: is unfamiliar to Cincinnati and Abbo it has just been
36:43
Speaker 1: really good, so that's kind of the argument for the
36:46
Speaker 1: under there. But I just don't trust vazcaz Man. It's
36:48
Speaker 1: just my the way that I handicap these pictures. You know,
36:51
Speaker 1: I get stubborn though, and I kind of just ingrained
36:54
Speaker 1: something in my mind and I think I'm right, But
36:56
Speaker 1: then you do have to take into account the specific
36:58
Speaker 1: matchup too. So yeah, Abbot is the better picture, but
37:01
Speaker 1: it looks like the market read is against it, so
37:03
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay away. John Rocker favorite of all time. Yeah, dude, Uh,
37:08
Speaker 1: he's hilarious. I love it. Yeah, I mean, dude, I
37:13
Speaker 1: don't know what else to say about that, but yeah,
37:14
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's awesome and he dude, he
37:17
Speaker 1: follows me on Twitter, which is pretty amazing as well.
37:20
Speaker 1: I'm sure that I would not agree with him on Israel,
37:23
Speaker 1: but he's a really good and everything else he's you know,
37:26
Speaker 1: on that. He's sort of in that sort of mainstream
37:29
Speaker 1: conservative line there for the most part. Andrew, what's up man?
37:33
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out all right. Next up, I'm gonna
37:36
Speaker 1: give you guys an actual play that I have here,
37:38
Speaker 1: get Rocker on the show. He I believe there may
37:44
Speaker 1: have been a possibility that we're gonna be able to
37:46
Speaker 1: get him on Tower Gang, and Tower Gang is now
37:49
Speaker 1: not happening, so isn't that just awesome. Man, that would
37:54
Speaker 1: be insane if that happened. I'm gonna give it a
37:58
Speaker 1: play here. I'm gonna try to get this done because
38:00
Speaker 1: I do have to get out of here at some point.
38:02
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it a plan. The Cleveland Indians money
38:05
Speaker 1: line minus one eighteen. This is not gonna be one
38:08
Speaker 1: that the public is really gonna love here, but I
38:10
Speaker 1: think the starting pitching matchup makes sense. I think it
38:12
Speaker 1: makes sense here if we look at the the market
38:16
Speaker 1: read on this the cash. Even though the money lines
38:19
Speaker 1: dropped for minus one twenty five to minus one fifteen
38:21
Speaker 1: on Cleveland, they do have sixty eight percent of the
38:23
Speaker 1: cash with sixty percent of tickets coming in at Saint Louis.
38:26
Speaker 1: And again I keep saying that I think Saint Louis
38:28
Speaker 1: is not really as good as their record would tell you,
38:30
Speaker 1: as their run differential is not really as good as
38:32
Speaker 1: the record says. And with this starting pitching matchup, I
38:35
Speaker 1: actually think that Cleveland might actually be the right side here.
38:38
Speaker 1: And then I know Cleveland has not been hitting well.
38:41
Speaker 1: Cleveland's not a very good team this year, but again,
38:44
Speaker 1: this matchup I think might actually get them this win here.
38:48
Speaker 1: Cleveland has lost two games in a row in shutout forms,
38:51
Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna be pissed off as well.
38:54
Speaker 1: So I think that that's gonna help Cleveland here, maybe
38:56
Speaker 1: refocus a little bit and spark some fire on Cleveland
39:00
Speaker 1: here to get back and start scoring some runs again here. Yesterday,
39:04
Speaker 1: of course, they got absolutely dominated by Sonny Gray, who
39:07
Speaker 1: I was a little bit worried about him because he's
39:09
Speaker 1: not that good on the road, but I believe he
39:10
Speaker 1: did have good numbers against Cleveland, and he pitched really well,
39:13
Speaker 1: a nine incomplete game, one hit, eleven strikeout performance. Sonny Gray.
39:19
Speaker 1: I mean, I like the guy. He continues to pitch
39:21
Speaker 1: really well for the most part, So he is a
39:23
Speaker 1: guy that I like to bet on in a lot
39:25
Speaker 1: of situations. Yesterday was not one of those situations. But certainly,
39:29
Speaker 1: my you know, just my kind of quick read is that,
39:31
Speaker 1: oh yeah, well Gray is way better than Luis Ortiz.
39:34
Speaker 1: So that was kind of just the limited handicap that
39:37
Speaker 1: I gave out there, and it wound up being correct
39:38
Speaker 1: in that game. Or Tee is not very good, but
39:41
Speaker 1: Cleveland kind of saved their bullpen yesterday. So that's kind
39:44
Speaker 1: of what I like about this. So I actually think
39:46
Speaker 1: the Saint Louis bullpen is basically kind of on par
39:50
Speaker 1: with Cleveland's bullpen, Like neither bullpen is that good, so
39:53
Speaker 1: I think we can still include the bullpens here. Both
39:55
Speaker 1: bullpens did rest yesterday for the most part, and then
39:58
Speaker 1: we look at the starting pitching. My else, Mikolaus is
40:01
Speaker 1: pitching for the Cardinals. He's not great. He's kind of
40:04
Speaker 1: a junk pitcher. I mean, he's been around for a
40:06
Speaker 1: long time. Four point three to one ERA and one
40:09
Speaker 1: point two to eight WHIP mediocre numbers. He's been better
40:12
Speaker 1: on the road, yes, three point eight three RM the road,
40:15
Speaker 1: so that might help him out here. Actually has been
40:18
Speaker 1: good this month with a seventeen to three strike a
40:20
Speaker 1: walk ratio, so that looks good. He's been in command,
40:23
Speaker 1: but he's given up twenty seven hits in twenty two
40:25
Speaker 1: innings this month and his team has lost three straight
40:28
Speaker 1: starts behind him, so that's not great. Really, his only
40:31
Speaker 1: bad start was against Toronto or he have six runs,
40:34
Speaker 1: but even so, still not really in good form right now.
40:37
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say the thirteen to two strike a walk
40:39
Speaker 1: ration the last two outings does say he was an
40:42
Speaker 1: okay form in those two outings. He got no run support.
40:45
Speaker 1: In those outings they lost. He was okay. One was
40:48
Speaker 1: against Milwaukee, so I know they're a good offense. Cincinnati
40:52
Speaker 1: decent offense, but still I'm not totally convinced he everythough
40:56
Speaker 1: I know he's stepping down a class to face Cleveland.
40:59
Speaker 1: He has not been good against Cleveland in his career
41:01
Speaker 1: forty seven at bats. This might help Cleveland break out
41:04
Speaker 1: of their slump. Here Man, the slump may discontinue because
41:08
Speaker 1: Cleveland has a three to nineteen batting average against him
41:11
Speaker 1: in eight twenty three ops, so I don't really trust
41:13
Speaker 1: michelas Here Lane Thomas five for thirteen off him, the
41:17
Speaker 1: best numbers out of all these guys will actually Hedges
41:19
Speaker 1: four for six as well. So a couple of guys
41:23
Speaker 1: do damage against him, and he's up against Slade Chacone,
41:26
Speaker 1: which is the other part of this handicap. Here is
41:28
Speaker 1: a three point three point eighty rail though a somewhat
41:31
Speaker 1: high one point two to nine wit, which I don't love.
41:34
Speaker 1: I know he's been worse at home, so I'm going
41:35
Speaker 1: against the home road splits here five point seventy nine
41:39
Speaker 1: ERA at home. But if you look at what he's done.
41:42
Speaker 1: I think it was really all one bad start against Yeah, Anaheim,
41:46
Speaker 1: where you give up five runs, three home runs. Just
41:49
Speaker 1: had a really bad start against Anaheim. He said five
41:52
Speaker 1: roads starts, so really one bad home start is skewing
41:55
Speaker 1: his split, So I'm not really gonna take that into
41:57
Speaker 1: account that much. This month and four starts a two
42:00
Speaker 1: point h five R twenty to seven strike out walk ratio,
42:03
Speaker 1: and his team has actually won his last two outings,
42:07
Speaker 1: and I actually gave Cleveland out as a lean against
42:09
Speaker 1: San Francisco in that game too. Start to go for
42:12
Speaker 1: him because I think Sar Francisco is in a bad
42:14
Speaker 1: spot there. But Chaconi has been good, and he's coming
42:17
Speaker 1: off a really impressive outing against the A's because I
42:20
Speaker 1: was at that A's stadium, which is very home run conducive,
42:23
Speaker 1: and he didn't even allow any runs at all. I
42:26
Speaker 1: went seven innings in that game. I mean, not putting
42:29
Speaker 1: up a huge strikeout number in that one, but that's
42:31
Speaker 1: still a pretty impressive outing. So I like Chacone. And
42:34
Speaker 1: then the clincher for me is that Saint Louis has
42:37
Speaker 1: never seen him before, so a young pitcher like him
42:40
Speaker 1: with pretty good stuff against an offense that's never seen
42:44
Speaker 1: him before. I'll roll with Chaconi in this game against
42:46
Speaker 1: the old veteran that everybody's kind of seen before and
42:50
Speaker 1: just kind of tries to locate his locate his pitches.
42:53
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the guy that has the
42:55
Speaker 1: higher ceiling with Chaconi here. Cleveland is gonna be one
43:00
Speaker 1: of the plays here today. Toronto at Boston, I mean
43:04
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, they just can't do anything. Man in
43:07
Speaker 1: the Red Sox on the return home spot, they never
43:10
Speaker 1: do well and they got absolutely blasted last night. I
43:14
Speaker 1: did give out Toronto as a lean on the show yesterday,
43:16
Speaker 1: didn't give it out as a play. But we've been
43:18
Speaker 1: an easy win. Toronto didn't even have to use much
43:21
Speaker 1: of their bullpen. So Toronto has the more rested bullpen
43:24
Speaker 1: and the better bullpen coming into this game. So already
43:27
Speaker 1: a little bit of an advantage for Toronto coming into
43:29
Speaker 1: this Chris Bassett pitching for Toronto. He's pitching fairly well.
43:33
Speaker 1: Three point six to one ERA, one point two to
43:36
Speaker 1: six whip what else we got? Sorry I was clicking around.
43:41
Speaker 1: I thought I left the banner up here. Bassett has
43:44
Speaker 1: been a little bit worse on the road though, four
43:45
Speaker 1: point nine to one r on the road this month. Well,
43:49
Speaker 1: his team had won four starts in a row of
43:51
Speaker 1: his that actually won eight out of nine starts of
43:54
Speaker 1: his and then he lost a start against the White
43:56
Speaker 1: Sox where he went six innings and allowed one run,
43:59
Speaker 1: so that wasn't his fault at all. So he is
44:01
Speaker 1: still pitching well. Four starts this month, three point one
44:04
Speaker 1: two ERA, twenty one to six streke a walk ratio.
44:08
Speaker 1: The only issue is, actually, no, there isn't an issue.
44:11
Speaker 1: I was gonna say I thought he was bad against
44:12
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, but he isn't. He's actually good against
44:14
Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Two in eighty five at bats, twenty
44:17
Speaker 1: six to six strike a walk raceio two hundred average
44:20
Speaker 1: allowed five hundred ops. So Bassett actually does well against
44:24
Speaker 1: the Red Sox as well. Red Sox don't even really
44:26
Speaker 1: have a single hitter that does any damage against him, really,
44:29
Speaker 1: and he's up against Lucas Gialido, who's been not very
44:33
Speaker 1: good for the Red Sox four point five to three ERM,
44:36
Speaker 1: one point three to seven whip at Fenway. He's been
44:38
Speaker 1: miserable with a seven point six six home ERA just
44:43
Speaker 1: abysmal at home red Sox did win four starts in
44:47
Speaker 1: a row of his so they were actually doing well
44:50
Speaker 1: behind him. And then his last start he did lose
44:52
Speaker 1: on the road at San Francisco. Yes, his home numbers
44:57
Speaker 1: are skewed because he had won really a bad starting
44:59
Speaker 1: against Anaheim, actually had one bad starting. It's actually never
45:03
Speaker 1: mind Texas and Atlanta where both bad starts too. So
45:06
Speaker 1: actually he said three really bad starts at home and
45:08
Speaker 1: two good starts, so it's like, what are you gonna
45:10
Speaker 1: get here out of Gilido? Then, well, his worst starts
45:13
Speaker 1: of all coming home against Toronto. His numbers are pretty mediocre.
45:17
Speaker 1: Ninety seven at bats, they're pretty familiar with him. Two
45:20
Speaker 1: fifty eight averages in that bad but eight thirty ops
45:22
Speaker 1: is pretty bad, although Kirk does a lot of the
45:25
Speaker 1: damage five to fourteen with four home runs and Bishett
45:29
Speaker 1: is seven for seventeen with a home run off him,
45:31
Speaker 1: So a couple of guys do the majority of the
45:33
Speaker 1: damage there. If you want some player props, again, hits
45:36
Speaker 1: most runs with RBIs there. But I would have to
45:39
Speaker 1: lean to Toronto again in this game, man. I mean,
45:40
Speaker 1: the better bullpen, more rested bullpen, probably even the better
45:44
Speaker 1: offense at this point is I liked the trade to
45:47
Speaker 1: get Devers out of they are men to help the
45:48
Speaker 1: team chemistry. But you knew that the Red Sox would
45:51
Speaker 1: take a hit offensively for a little while, and hopefully
45:53
Speaker 1: the Red Sox start turning it around. Man, I mean,
45:55
Speaker 1: the password might be coming up soon. Red Sox trying
45:58
Speaker 1: to start this new a of the Red Sox with
46:00
Speaker 1: all these young guys here. They're gonna get Yoshida back
46:04
Speaker 1: pretty soon. It looks like which is gonna be a
46:06
Speaker 1: big component as well, so hopefully the Red Sox can
46:09
Speaker 1: start doing a little bit better offensively again here. But actually,
46:13
Speaker 1: the Red Sox and San Francisco neither team had won
46:15
Speaker 1: a game since the trade, I think, except against each
46:19
Speaker 1: other until yesterday when San Francisco finally won a game.
46:22
Speaker 1: So that's kind of crazy. Red Sox getting swept by
46:25
Speaker 1: Anaheim and San Francisco getting swept by Miami, which is ridiculous. Anyway,
46:31
Speaker 1: the market read is totally against me on this one.
46:33
Speaker 1: I lean to Toronto, but the market read is absolutely
46:36
Speaker 1: against it. But I just don't see why. I mean,
46:38
Speaker 1: I think Toronto does have the better offense right now.
46:40
Speaker 1: That's in the better form, better bullpen, more rested bullpen,
46:43
Speaker 1: and the better starter and the better matchups. So there's
46:45
Speaker 1: almost no reason that I could see to like the
46:49
Speaker 1: Red Sox here. But the market read is what's keeping
46:51
Speaker 1: me off of actually giving this out as a play Toronto.
46:54
Speaker 1: For minus one thirteen of minus one seventeen, fifty percent
46:58
Speaker 1: of tickets on Toronto seventy one percent coming in on
47:00
Speaker 1: the Red Sox. So the money coming in on the
47:03
Speaker 1: Red Sox there. And I will say, actually, the one
47:05
Speaker 1: other reason why the Red Sox might be taking the
47:08
Speaker 1: money here is the situation does favor the Red Sox.
47:11
Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is when a team
47:13
Speaker 1: returns home from a road trip, they tend to be
47:15
Speaker 1: in a distracted spot, right especially with the Red Sox
47:18
Speaker 1: returning home from the Pacific Coast long road trip. They
47:21
Speaker 1: have to get back to family life. It's a distraction.
47:23
Speaker 1: They have stuff to do. But then if you get
47:26
Speaker 1: distracted in that game, you get blown out in that game,
47:29
Speaker 1: especially with the Red Sox, they get shut out and
47:31
Speaker 1: blown out, it's a better spot in the next game,
47:33
Speaker 1: and a lot of times the team will refocus and
47:35
Speaker 1: have a much better effort in the next spot. So
47:37
Speaker 1: that is one reason to not actually bet Toronto here,
47:41
Speaker 1: But I would still lean to Toronto, to be honest,
47:43
Speaker 1: because I think everything about the matchup kind of indicates
47:47
Speaker 1: that way. Colorado at Milwaukee this game, I mean, to me,
47:51
Speaker 1: it looked like the money was actually coming in on
47:53
Speaker 1: the under in this game, and I would not agree
47:55
Speaker 1: with that. The total dropped a little from nine to
47:58
Speaker 1: nine juice to the under. It takes nine to nine
48:00
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over though, according to
48:02
Speaker 1: these percentages, But that ninety nine percent usually is not
48:05
Speaker 1: an accurate number here on pregames, So I mean, this
48:08
Speaker 1: is a free tool, so you have to kind of
48:10
Speaker 1: read into the numbers a little bit more because they
48:12
Speaker 1: might not be totally accurate. But looking at the starting
48:15
Speaker 1: pitching matchup, I mean it looks like a mess. Uh.
48:19
Speaker 1: Both teams I think used a lot of their bullpend
48:21
Speaker 1: yesterday and Colorado's bullpen isn't even good. Milwaukee's bullpen's not
48:25
Speaker 1: good either, uh, ten to six game yesterday. But again,
48:29
Speaker 1: because of that type of thing kind of cascades, I'm
48:31
Speaker 1: not really sure that the over doesn't make sense again
48:34
Speaker 1: here with two bad bullpens. Senza Tella's pitching for Colorado,
48:38
Speaker 1: he's not good. Six point four to eighty R and
48:40
Speaker 1: one point nine whip just awful. Numbers a little bit
48:43
Speaker 1: better away from course field though, five point seven to
48:47
Speaker 1: ninety RA, so obviously he's on the road here Colorado.
48:50
Speaker 1: Somehows won his last three starts, so he actually pitched
48:53
Speaker 1: a little bit better in the last two starts, but
48:55
Speaker 1: still overall not pitching well, with an nine to elevens
49:00
Speaker 1: like a walk ratio this month and a four point
49:02
Speaker 1: four to two ERA, so still not good, although that's
49:06
Speaker 1: a little bit better by his standards. I guess against
49:08
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's numbers aren't good either. In forty two at bats,
49:11
Speaker 1: three thirty three average, one thousand and six obs and
49:14
Speaker 1: a very high fourteen RBIs, four different guys have at
49:18
Speaker 1: home runs off him, so I don't expect him to
49:21
Speaker 1: do very well, and he's up against Quinn Priester, who
49:24
Speaker 1: has been better than expected. I mean, he is still
49:27
Speaker 1: young three point six to eighty RA, but a one
49:30
Speaker 1: point three to one whip kind of indicates that there's
49:32
Speaker 1: something wrong. He's putting too many guys on base. His
49:35
Speaker 1: home road splits are almost equals, so nothing to see there.
49:38
Speaker 1: Milwaukee has actually won his five last five starts in
49:42
Speaker 1: a row, so Milwaukee has actually been winning behind him,
49:45
Speaker 1: and he has a lot more than three runs in
49:47
Speaker 1: any of those starts, which was the most recent outing,
49:49
Speaker 1: but he gave up nine hits in that outing to Minnesota,
49:52
Speaker 1: it's not a good hitting team, and only lasted three
49:54
Speaker 1: and a third, so he might be starting to regress
49:57
Speaker 1: a little bit. He had three pretty good starts in
49:59
Speaker 1: a row and then that one was just bad, and
50:02
Speaker 1: that was his most recent start of the Overall this month,
50:04
Speaker 1: four starts, two point six sixty r eighteen to three
50:07
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio. Obviously not that bad against Colorado, though,
50:11
Speaker 1: he's actually been really bad, even though their offense isn't
50:14
Speaker 1: good seventeen at bat small sample size, but he's allowed
50:17
Speaker 1: of five twenty nine average to them in one thousand
50:19
Speaker 1: and four to sixty one oh ps. That's not good.
50:23
Speaker 1: Montiac three for five with a couple of doubles there,
50:26
Speaker 1: So I would lean to the over in this game.
50:28
Speaker 1: That's really the only way that I could look at
50:31
Speaker 1: this game in any serious fashion. I mean, you're never
50:35
Speaker 1: gonna get value fading Colorado because they're so bad. You're
50:39
Speaker 1: having to pay up to minus two point fifty now
50:41
Speaker 1: in Milwaukee up for minus two to fifteen. I would
50:43
Speaker 1: not do that, Allo, if you wanted to play Milwaukee
50:46
Speaker 1: over their team total, maybe to just get to Colorado's pitching.
50:50
Speaker 1: I mean you could look that way as well. You're
50:51
Speaker 1: probably asking them to score at least six runs, So
50:54
Speaker 1: we'll see how that goes. Dodgers at Kansas City I
50:57
Speaker 1: don't even want to talk about because Kansas City again
51:00
Speaker 1: out hit them eleven to four yesterday and still lost
51:03
Speaker 1: the game five to four. And the guy who did
51:07
Speaker 1: damage to us yesterday, Otani, you had a home run
51:09
Speaker 1: and a triple in the game. Well, he's gonna be
51:12
Speaker 1: starting today for the Dodgers. I don't know what they're
51:15
Speaker 1: doing with him right now. I mean, he's been an
51:16
Speaker 1: opener the last couple of outings. He's trying to get
51:19
Speaker 1: back into pitching forms. So his last two outings he's
51:22
Speaker 1: made one inning appearances. In each of his last two outings.
51:26
Speaker 1: He gave up a run in the first one, had
51:28
Speaker 1: a clean inning in his next start. So Otani, I
51:34
Speaker 1: would guess, is probably gonna go one inning again here
51:36
Speaker 1: and be the opener, and the Dodgers did use some
51:38
Speaker 1: of their bullpend yesterday, So Kansas City actually has the
51:42
Speaker 1: bullpen that's in better shape here, and we're looking at
51:45
Speaker 1: a bullpend game for the Dodgers here. So I'm not
51:47
Speaker 1: sure that the Dodgers make sense in this game. Man,
51:50
Speaker 1: it might be another spot where I would lean against
51:52
Speaker 1: the Dodgers here because again, people are gonna look at
51:55
Speaker 1: this Oh Tani, he's great at everything, he's starting well. No,
51:58
Speaker 1: that basically means you're getting a Dodge bullpen game here,
52:01
Speaker 1: and again their bullpen is more used than excusing, more
52:05
Speaker 1: used than Kansas City's, and Kansas City actually has the
52:07
Speaker 1: better bullpen anyway, It's just the Dodgers obviously have the
52:11
Speaker 1: way better offense. Kansas City has set Lugo pitching, and
52:16
Speaker 1: he's continuing to do well, even though I know a
52:18
Speaker 1: lot of analytics guys that look at Baseball savant in
52:21
Speaker 1: the advanced analytics like this guy sucks, he's gonna regress.
52:24
Speaker 1: I'm like two point nine three ERA one point zero
52:26
Speaker 1: five with dude. He's continuing to not too bad over
52:30
Speaker 1: the course of like almost two entire seasons now, So
52:33
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe he'll regress a little bit, but I
52:36
Speaker 1: don't know if it's gonna be that sharp this month
52:39
Speaker 1: four starts. His team has lost three of those starts
52:41
Speaker 1: because they can't hit, but it's not his fault. He
52:43
Speaker 1: has a twenty three to six strike out walk ratio
52:46
Speaker 1: one point five to seven ERA this month, so he's
52:49
Speaker 1: been good. He's been good at home as well, with
52:51
Speaker 1: a two point seven to two home ERA against the Dodgers.
52:55
Speaker 1: He has pretty decent numbers as well, though they were
52:56
Speaker 1: really good. Offense seventy one at bats eight to six
53:00
Speaker 1: like a walker ratio is not that good, but he's
53:01
Speaker 1: helling to a two fifty four average six p ninety
53:04
Speaker 1: two o ps. That's pretty impressive. So I probably prefer
53:08
Speaker 1: Luga plus Kansas City's bullpen coming into this then over
53:12
Speaker 1: Otani going one inning plus whatever the Dodgers' bullpen is
53:16
Speaker 1: gonna do. And the money is agreeing with me on
53:18
Speaker 1: this one, I would fade the Dodgers again and watch
53:20
Speaker 1: the game that I give it out as a play. Yesterday,
53:22
Speaker 1: I'm basically right, and it still loses. Watch today is
53:26
Speaker 1: gonna be a situation where I I don't give it
53:28
Speaker 1: out as a play, I'll give it out as a
53:30
Speaker 1: lean and it'll actually be a winner this time. That's
53:34
Speaker 1: you know, that's gonna happen. Kansas City will finally break
53:36
Speaker 1: the law street, which should have happened yesterday. Eighty two
53:39
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Dodgers Dodgers always gonna be public,
53:42
Speaker 1: only seventy percent of the cash. And I think the
53:44
Speaker 1: professional betters know, man, that with a Dodger bullpen game
53:48
Speaker 1: like this, you're laying way too much of a price
53:51
Speaker 1: with them on the on the road here against what's
53:54
Speaker 1: still a pretty capable Kansas City team. At least Kansas
53:57
Speaker 1: City is still a very good pitching team. Dodgers down
54:01
Speaker 1: for might was sixty five to minus one fifty four,
54:03
Speaker 1: So reverse live movement against the public as well. So again,
54:07
Speaker 1: the only way that I would look as Kansas City
54:08
Speaker 1: either on the run line or the money line. San
54:12
Speaker 1: Francisco at the White Sox I mentioned I liked the
54:14
Speaker 1: White Sox yesterday because they had rest San Francisco was
54:17
Speaker 1: traveling in. But it was still a loss for the
54:24
Speaker 1: White Sox. I gave. I gave the White Sox out
54:26
Speaker 1: as a lean yesterday and they still lost. And by
54:29
Speaker 1: the way you've seen my Twitter, I mean I'm taking
54:32
Speaker 1: the approach that's gonna get me in trouble. Although I
54:35
Speaker 1: agree with Clay Travis, who was a big sports commentator here,
54:39
Speaker 1: I am not buying into the official narrative with this
54:42
Speaker 1: Marte thing here man. I think that Marte did not
54:45
Speaker 1: behave like a man here man. I mean, yes, it's
54:47
Speaker 1: awful that his mother died, but the narrative is completely
54:51
Speaker 1: a lie basically. So what actually happened is the White
54:54
Speaker 1: Sox fan yelled out something to the effect of like
54:59
Speaker 1: I text your mom last night or something like that.
55:01
Speaker 1: It was like your mom joke that like a high
55:03
Speaker 1: schooler would make. He probably didn't even realize that Marte's
55:05
Speaker 1: mother is dead, which by the way, is not even
55:08
Speaker 1: a recent thing. I mean, I know it's awful, but
55:11
Speaker 1: his mother died eight years ago, and Martes still reacted
55:16
Speaker 1: like that and was crying on the field and had
55:18
Speaker 1: to be consoled by his teammates. I mean, dude, this
55:22
Speaker 1: is a professional sport man. You're a professional athlete, and
55:26
Speaker 1: you're gonna act that way like we've seen like Jared Duran.
55:29
Speaker 1: You had people yelling at him from the stands. After
55:32
Speaker 1: the Red Sox documentary came out where he was talking
55:34
Speaker 1: about attempting suicide and whatever. You have fans yelling at
55:37
Speaker 1: him like you should have gone through with it and whatever,
55:40
Speaker 1: which is absolutely ridiculous. And Duran didn't cry about it.
55:43
Speaker 1: He spoke out about it and you know, said this
55:45
Speaker 1: was awful. He got really angry, which is, you know,
55:48
Speaker 1: definitely a more manly response. Props to Duran. I love Duran, Man.
55:52
Speaker 1: I got my red Sox Duran Jersey. I hope they
55:55
Speaker 1: keep him. He should be the leader of this team
55:57
Speaker 1: right now. Man. I love that guy. And then you
55:59
Speaker 1: had Lance mccalluch getting death threats from his own fans, which,
56:04
Speaker 1: by the way, mccullors is actually pitching today, so I'm
56:06
Speaker 1: gonna mention him in a second, but I'll talk about
56:09
Speaker 1: this now. He had one bad start, coming off of
56:11
Speaker 1: a long layoff from like really serious arm surgery, had
56:14
Speaker 1: a bad start, and his fans, his own fans, even
56:18
Speaker 1: though he's a guy who's like one at least one
56:20
Speaker 1: World series with them, they're like threatening death upon him
56:24
Speaker 1: and his family, which is absolutely ridiculous. He didn't behave
56:27
Speaker 1: like Martyd it either. I mean, he spoke out about it. Yeah,
56:30
Speaker 1: like this is awful. Whatever I mean with this fan
56:34
Speaker 1: did is way less egregious than what those other fans did.
56:36
Speaker 1: This fan didn't even know, he just made your mom joke,
56:39
Speaker 1: and he gets banned for life from all thirty two
56:44
Speaker 1: major league stadiums or however many stadiums there are, which
56:47
Speaker 1: is that's already overkill. And then you have this like leftist,
56:50
Speaker 1: ugly woman who looks like a man out there. If
56:52
Speaker 1: you saw my back and forth on Twitter yesterday doxing
56:57
Speaker 1: the guy putting out his information, being like, let's ruin
57:00
Speaker 1: this guy's life, really okay over your mom joke, because
57:04
Speaker 1: a guy who should be a grown man can't take
57:07
Speaker 1: a joke like that eight years after the fact. I mean,
57:10
Speaker 1: give me a break, dude, Like it's much more serious
57:14
Speaker 1: to be yelling, you know, at Jared Duran telling him
57:16
Speaker 1: that he should have, you know, committed suicide, or yelling
57:19
Speaker 1: at Lance mccullor is saying that he and his family
57:21
Speaker 1: should die. I mean, that's way more egregious. And those
57:25
Speaker 1: fans got less of a penalty. I think those fans
57:27
Speaker 1: got kicked out of that one game, and I'm fine
57:29
Speaker 1: with that. I mean that should have that should have
57:32
Speaker 1: been the most that this guy suffered. He maybe kicked
57:35
Speaker 1: out of this one game. Probably, I wouldn't even go
57:38
Speaker 1: that far, to be honest. By the way, the fans name,
57:41
Speaker 1: by the way, I think happens to be Chad as well,
57:43
Speaker 1: and he is a Chad and Ketl Marte is not
57:47
Speaker 1: a Chad. So yeah, yeah, correct, Charles. Yeah, it was
57:52
Speaker 1: eight years ago. Yeah, yeah, most like most likely a
57:58
Speaker 1: single mom. Yeah, but I mean yeah, eight years I
58:00
Speaker 1: mean obviously yeah, like you can obviously feel for the guy.
58:03
Speaker 1: I mean, he doesn't have his mother. But yeah, it
58:06
Speaker 1: was a long time ago. And this is a joke
58:08
Speaker 1: that high schoolers would make. Dude, like, like, didn't you
58:12
Speaker 1: go through stuff like this in high school? I went
58:14
Speaker 1: to public high school. Everything was like your mom, this,
58:17
Speaker 1: your mom that whatever. Like you know, there was no
58:20
Speaker 1: there was no let up there and you're busting balls there.
58:22
Speaker 1: And I know this guy wasn't a friend of his.
58:24
Speaker 1: He's some unknown guy. But like you know, I mean,
58:26
Speaker 1: you get bullied in high school and stuff too. Uh,
58:29
Speaker 1: you got to learn to just like figure out how
58:31
Speaker 1: to take it. Man. You don't cry like with your friends.
58:35
Speaker 1: You stand up to it, just you know, sling something
58:39
Speaker 1: right back at the guy. You know what I mean,
58:41
Speaker 1: defend yourself or just be like stoic about it and
58:43
Speaker 1: just be like whatever and just walking off. Major League
58:46
Speaker 1: Baseball players here so much worse all the time. Like
58:49
Speaker 1: I'm sure I've heard worse at like games that I've
58:52
Speaker 1: been to because I've been to so many games, so
58:54
Speaker 1: much crap gets yelled out by whatever fans, you know.
58:57
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man, this is a professional sport here.
59:00
Speaker 1: So anyway, that's my diatribe there. I gotta get out
59:02
Speaker 1: of here soon, so I gotta finish this video anyway.
59:05
Speaker 1: White Sox against San Francisco. White Sox lost yesterday. Of course,
59:10
Speaker 1: we know the White Sox bullpen is a lot worse
59:12
Speaker 1: than San Francisco's, but San Francisco again had to use
59:15
Speaker 1: a lot of their best relievers yesterday, So San Francisco's
59:18
Speaker 1: bullpen is not in good rest shape here, even though
59:21
Speaker 1: they are the better bullpen. We have an interesting starting
59:25
Speaker 1: pitching matchup with Robbie Ray pitching for San Francisco. He's
59:28
Speaker 1: having a good season, which I did not expect. I
59:30
Speaker 1: don't know if anybody did two point eight three ERA
59:33
Speaker 1: one point one to six whip. I do expect him
59:35
Speaker 1: to be worse at some point. He's been still fairly
59:38
Speaker 1: good on the road, although a little bit worse three
59:40
Speaker 1: point two to two ROADYRA. This month, he has been
59:43
Speaker 1: a little bit worse of the four point h nine ERA,
59:45
Speaker 1: but still at twenty six to six strike a walk ratio,
59:49
Speaker 1: and San Francisco has won three of his four starts
59:51
Speaker 1: this month behind him, so he's regressing a little bit,
59:56
Speaker 1: but not a lot, and he still is not a
59:57
Speaker 1: lot more than three on runs. He's only allowed runs
1:00:00
Speaker 1: in one start all season, which was at Philadelphia, which
1:00:03
Speaker 1: is a very good offense, of course, and the White
1:00:06
Speaker 1: Sox are not a good offense, and against them he
1:00:08
Speaker 1: has thirty seven at bats against him, a fifteen to
1:00:11
Speaker 1: four strikeout walk ratio, one eighty nine average allowed in
1:00:14
Speaker 1: six twenty oh ps. So he has done well against
1:00:17
Speaker 1: the White Sox lineup, which is a weak lineup. He's
1:00:20
Speaker 1: up against Adrian Houser, who is gonna be interesting to
1:00:25
Speaker 1: try to figure out here. Man. Howser has good numbers
1:00:27
Speaker 1: this season so far, pretty much two point two seven
1:00:30
Speaker 1: ERA really good, one point two six whip is a
1:00:32
Speaker 1: little bit high. He's been really good at home with
1:00:35
Speaker 1: a point seven five ERA, although it is a small
1:00:38
Speaker 1: sample size, but he's a pitching well. He hasn't allowed
1:00:40
Speaker 1: with the three on runs in any start this month.
1:00:43
Speaker 1: He has a three point four to two ERA too
1:00:45
Speaker 1: many walks eighteen to nine strike a walk ratio with
1:00:48
Speaker 1: seven walks over the last two outings, which isn't that
1:00:50
Speaker 1: good all though they were both on the road, but
1:00:52
Speaker 1: against Texas and Toronto, a fairly bad offense and a
1:00:57
Speaker 1: mediocre offense. But he may do well here because Francisco's
1:01:00
Speaker 1: offense is really not that great. Houser against them career
1:01:04
Speaker 1: wise twenty at bats has a five to one straight
1:01:06
Speaker 1: out walk ratio, two fifty average six thirty six obs,
1:01:09
Speaker 1: so Houser has done well against San Francisco as well.
1:01:13
Speaker 1: So I'm leaning under in some capacity in this game.
1:01:17
Speaker 1: The totals dever mayit and half to eight sixty eight
1:01:20
Speaker 1: percent of tickets ninety eight percent of cash on the under.
1:01:23
Speaker 1: I don't really want to deal with the San Francisco
1:01:25
Speaker 1: bullpen that is very overworked right now though in a
1:01:28
Speaker 1: White Sox bullpen that's just not that good. So I
1:01:30
Speaker 1: think under in the first five innings is probably the
1:01:33
Speaker 1: right way to look at this game. Uh So, that's
1:01:35
Speaker 1: what I would lean here. It's tempting. It's close to
1:01:39
Speaker 1: being a play for me. I just think howser Ray.
1:01:42
Speaker 1: They're both a little bit hard to gauge here because
1:01:44
Speaker 1: I just Ray just keeps pitching unexpectedly well. Man money
1:01:48
Speaker 1: is also coming in against San Francisco, just like yesterday.
1:01:51
Speaker 1: I think it was eighty six percent of tickets, only
1:01:53
Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash. So the public likes
1:01:55
Speaker 1: San Francisco. But when you have two offenses, you expect
1:01:58
Speaker 1: to maybe not do that great. It starts looking pretty
1:02:01
Speaker 1: good for the underdog. Getting an underdog price like this
1:02:04
Speaker 1: at home, maybe you think it's gonna be a close game.
1:02:06
Speaker 1: It means there's a better shot that they're gonna win
1:02:08
Speaker 1: the game. There's been a reverse live movement San Francisco
1:02:11
Speaker 1: down for minus one fifty eight to minus one fifty five,
1:02:14
Speaker 1: So that's the way to look at that game. Miami
1:02:17
Speaker 1: at Arizona. Arizona lost yesterday. It was a bad spot
1:02:21
Speaker 1: for them. They were turning home from a road trip,
1:02:23
Speaker 1: long road trip, so I mentioned it was a bad
1:02:25
Speaker 1: spot for them. I just didn't really want to fade
1:02:27
Speaker 1: Merrill Kelly, and he actually did decently in the game.
1:02:30
Speaker 1: Arizona's bullpen really really did not help them out in
1:02:33
Speaker 1: the game yesterday. Arizona's bullpen was a mess Arizona, I
1:02:38
Speaker 1: mean it is a mess. They wound up losing the game.
1:02:40
Speaker 1: Both these bullpens are really bad. So even though I
1:02:43
Speaker 1: kind of like the under early in the game yesterday,
1:02:45
Speaker 1: I was kind of liking maybe more runs to be
1:02:48
Speaker 1: scored late in the game, which is kind of what happened.
1:02:51
Speaker 1: Although I think the over hit both in the first
1:02:53
Speaker 1: five and the full game yesterday. So I don't trust
1:02:56
Speaker 1: either bullpen at all. They're both not good. They both
1:02:59
Speaker 1: got used yesterday. And then we got the starting pitching
1:03:01
Speaker 1: matchup with Sandy al Contra, who you know, is a
1:03:04
Speaker 1: former cy Young candidate who went through multiple surgeries and
1:03:07
Speaker 1: now he's trying to come back from that. He's been
1:03:09
Speaker 1: really struggling. Six point six' NINE era and one point
1:03:12
Speaker 1: four to six whip on the. Road he's been really
1:03:16
Speaker 1: bad nine point eight two ROAD era and pitching in
1:03:18
Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park like this is probably not gonna.
1:03:21
Speaker 1: Help but he has actually started turning things around this.
1:03:25
Speaker 1: Month he actually has been fairly. Decent his team has
1:03:28
Speaker 1: gone two and two behind, Him he's faced a couple
1:03:31
Speaker 1: of difficult offenses In philadelphia And atlanta, recently and he's
1:03:34
Speaker 1: not given up more than three on runs in any
1:03:36
Speaker 1: of these. Starts he's gone six innings and three out
1:03:39
Speaker 1: of the four nineteen to five stridgle walker race here
1:03:42
Speaker 1: two point seven FOUR era In, june so we may
1:03:45
Speaker 1: be seeing a resurgence of All contra, here which is
1:03:48
Speaker 1: WHY i kind of indicated yesterday that If miami is
1:03:50
Speaker 1: gonna be dealing at the trade, deadline they might be
1:03:53
Speaker 1: looking to trade Al. Contra And i'm, like at this,
1:03:55
Speaker 1: Point i'm Like Red sox should try to get him,
1:03:58
Speaker 1: man just LIKE i, MEAN i would actually love, that
1:04:02
Speaker 1: even though it's not a pitcher from The environment And.
1:04:03
Speaker 1: FENWAY i, mean If alcantra is undervalued right now and
1:04:08
Speaker 1: he's actually starting to pitch better right, NOW i kind
1:04:10
Speaker 1: of like. That and he does have really good numbers Against,
1:04:12
Speaker 1: arizona though of course a lot of them are back
1:04:14
Speaker 1: when he was really, good probably before his, injuries but
1:04:17
Speaker 1: still you gotta take. Note in fifty at, bats a
1:04:20
Speaker 1: seventeen to three strggle walk, ratio one sixty average, allowed
1:04:25
Speaker 1: and four forty eight, ohps Al contra has been really,
1:04:29
Speaker 1: good specifically Against, arizona even though they do have a good,
1:04:31
Speaker 1: offense and he's up Against Brandon, fott who is arguably
1:04:36
Speaker 1: the worst of the two pitchers at this. Point five
1:04:38
Speaker 1: point four to NINETY, ira one point three to nine.
1:04:40
Speaker 1: Whip that's not. Good he's been better at home, though
1:04:43
Speaker 1: four point EIGHTY ra at, home So fat has the
1:04:47
Speaker 1: advantage of the splits Whereas alcantra. Doesn't But fot is
1:04:51
Speaker 1: in the worst form right. Now he is a SEVEN
1:04:53
Speaker 1: era this, month has allowed seven more hits than innings
1:04:57
Speaker 1: pitched sixteen to five struggle walk ratio is not that,
1:05:00
Speaker 1: bad but he's not been great man this, month going
1:05:05
Speaker 1: five innings exactly in the last three and three innings
1:05:08
Speaker 1: to start before, that and the start before that was
1:05:10
Speaker 1: the outing where he allowed eight runs without even recording an.
1:05:13
Speaker 1: Out SO i, mean he's just been pretty bad. Recently
1:05:17
Speaker 1: and Against miami his numbers are actually not. Good in
1:05:20
Speaker 1: thirty one at, bats four to four strago walker, ratio
1:05:23
Speaker 1: three p fifty five, average and nine to twenty eight.
1:05:25
Speaker 1: Ops SO i have a slight lean To. Miami but
1:05:29
Speaker 1: this is similar to The Red sox In toronto, situation because,
1:05:32
Speaker 1: YEAH i have a slight lean To miami. Here arizona
1:05:35
Speaker 1: has plummeted down for minus one eighty one five eighty
1:05:39
Speaker 1: one percent take is ninety eight percent of. CASH i
1:05:41
Speaker 1: think that's reverse Line moon against the Public arizona. Team
1:05:44
Speaker 1: so the market actually looks like it is kind of
1:05:46
Speaker 1: agreeing with The miami side. Here and, YEAH i mean
1:05:49
Speaker 1: that is the way THAT i lean in this game Is.
1:05:52
Speaker 1: Miami but, WELL i mean you could do it full
1:05:55
Speaker 1: game as, well because the bullpens are both in bad shape,
1:05:58
Speaker 1: Here SO i don't mind full game or first five
1:06:01
Speaker 1: innings if you want to just focus on the starting
1:06:03
Speaker 1: pitching matchup and not worry about The. Bullpens miami money
1:06:06
Speaker 1: line first five innings makes sense as. Well the only
1:06:09
Speaker 1: issue is, that just LIKE i said With, boston when
1:06:11
Speaker 1: a team returns over from a road trip and they
1:06:13
Speaker 1: do bad Like arizona did, yesterday losing ugly to a bad,
1:06:17
Speaker 1: team they tend to refocus after they were in that
1:06:19
Speaker 1: distracted spot and they do better the next time. Out But,
1:06:23
Speaker 1: arizona because they have so many pitching injuries at this,
1:06:25
Speaker 1: point and they have some offensive injuries as, well they
1:06:28
Speaker 1: might kind of be, headed you, know out of the playoff. Picture,
1:06:32
Speaker 1: Man so we'll. See But arizona might not be good
1:06:34
Speaker 1: enough this year, man unfortunately for, them Because burns was
1:06:37
Speaker 1: a huge piece for them and now he's done for
1:06:39
Speaker 1: the year and that's just really really gonna hurt. Them
1:06:42
Speaker 1: philadelphia At atlanta is the other play THAT i have,
1:06:45
Speaker 1: today which is an under in the first five innings
1:06:48
Speaker 1: under four you can finde it even. Money right, Now
1:06:50
Speaker 1: i'm gonna focus just on the starting pitching. Here on the,
1:06:53
Speaker 1: service it just looks like a good starting pitching, matchup
1:06:55
Speaker 1: and that's What i'm going with. Here, PHILADELPHIA i don't
1:06:58
Speaker 1: like their, bullpen as we, know that's well. Documented their
1:07:01
Speaker 1: bullpen's not very, good And landa's isn't that good, either
1:07:04
Speaker 1: So i'm gonna take the bullpen's out of the. Equation
1:07:06
Speaker 1: Yesterday atlanta lost thirteen to, nothing WHICH i did lean
1:07:10
Speaker 1: To philadelphia. YESTERDAY i thought it was a nice bounce
1:07:12
Speaker 1: back spot for. Them philadelphia didn't use much of their bullpen.
1:07:15
Speaker 1: Yesterday they Used ron Gll rango however you pronounce his.
1:07:19
Speaker 1: Name they used him how to finish the game Up
1:07:21
Speaker 1: and actually it looks Like abel tried to start the
1:07:24
Speaker 1: game and got, hurt SO i don't know what happened.
1:07:26
Speaker 1: There he didn't throw any pitches, though SO i don't
1:07:28
Speaker 1: know what the deal was. There why he's even in
1:07:30
Speaker 1: the box. SCORE i don't know what, Happened like he
1:07:32
Speaker 1: stood on the mound and then. LEFT i don't understand
1:07:35
Speaker 1: BECAUSE i handicapped the game like he was. Starting he.
1:07:37
Speaker 1: Didn't so The phillies went with a bullpen, game but
1:07:40
Speaker 1: they actually kind of saved their. Bullpen BUT i still
1:07:43
Speaker 1: don't trust their bullpen because it's not that. Good braves
1:07:45
Speaker 1: had to use a lot of their bullpen Because Bryce
1:07:47
Speaker 1: elder was terrible again, Yesterday so The braves bullpen is
1:07:51
Speaker 1: pretty unrested right. Now so again we'll take the bullpens
1:07:54
Speaker 1: out of this equation BECAUSE i don't like the, bullpens
1:07:57
Speaker 1: BUT i liked the starting pitching. Matchup luzardo's. PITCH i
1:08:00
Speaker 1: know his numbers don't look that great after he was
1:08:02
Speaker 1: really really good to start the. Season he had two
1:08:05
Speaker 1: awful starts in a row which skyrocketed at HIS ra
1:08:08
Speaker 1: and whip. Up he's up to four point away and
1:08:11
Speaker 1: in the era one point three to seven Whip he's
1:08:14
Speaker 1: been worse on the road four point four to three e.
1:08:16
Speaker 1: Rail those splits aren't that, significant BUT i think he's
1:08:20
Speaker 1: returning to form, now. Man he's coming off a good
1:08:22
Speaker 1: start against The, mets shut them out for six to two,
1:08:24
Speaker 1: thirds seven, strikeouts one, walk three hits. Loud that tells
1:08:28
Speaker 1: me he's back in command. Again has a twenty three
1:08:31
Speaker 1: to seven strike a walk ratio this. Month his alternated
1:08:35
Speaker 1: good and bad, starts, though so he would be in
1:08:37
Speaker 1: line for a bad start if you look at. That
1:08:39
Speaker 1: but his good starts have been against the better, teams
1:08:42
Speaker 1: against The clubs and The, mets so it's almost like
1:08:44
Speaker 1: he's stepping it up against the teams that matter More.
1:08:47
Speaker 1: SO i don't think he's gonna be in a letdown spot, here.
1:08:49
Speaker 1: MAN i think he's gonna do well in this next start. Here,
1:08:53
Speaker 1: overall twenty three to seven stringle walk ratio is fine
1:08:56
Speaker 1: this month five point eight five ra is not, good
1:08:58
Speaker 1: but that's because he had one of those real bad
1:09:00
Speaker 1: starts Against, toronto WHICH i know his last two starts
1:09:03
Speaker 1: on the road were both really bad as. Well BUT
1:09:07
Speaker 1: i think he's coming back into four here, man and
1:09:09
Speaker 1: again he's stepping up against these divisional. Foes he did
1:09:12
Speaker 1: pitch well in this ballpark At atlanta earlier this, year six,
1:09:16
Speaker 1: innings give up one, run six, strikeouts one. Walk, so
1:09:19
Speaker 1: even though that does Mean atlanta's familiar with him and
1:09:22
Speaker 1: they will be facing him, again they were already familiar with,
1:09:25
Speaker 1: him and he pitched well against, him and he does
1:09:27
Speaker 1: have good numbers against him in his career one hundred
1:09:28
Speaker 1: and ten at, bats thirty four to eleven stukele walk race,
1:09:31
Speaker 1: here two forty five, average and six ninety six. Ops
1:09:35
Speaker 1: saluzardo has been good against The. Braves he's up Against,
1:09:39
Speaker 1: schwellenbach WHO i like as. Well three point two ONE,
1:09:43
Speaker 1: ra point nine to nine. Whip he's been good on the.
1:09:45
Speaker 1: Season he's been better at home two point six FOUR,
1:09:48
Speaker 1: era so his splits more. Significant he's been better at,
1:09:52
Speaker 1: home has the advantage of the. Splits he's coming off
1:09:54
Speaker 1: winning three straight, games or his team has won three straight.
1:09:58
Speaker 1: Games he got to win two of. Them atlanta has actually,
1:10:01
Speaker 1: won even though we're not looking at the side. Here
1:10:03
Speaker 1: they've actually won seven of his last nine. Starts he
1:10:06
Speaker 1: is also coming off two straight starts against The. Mets
1:10:09
Speaker 1: but this is The, phillies. Man you know What lanta
1:10:11
Speaker 1: is gonna pay attention to The phillies, here AND i
1:10:14
Speaker 1: know these teams are good, offenses which is another, thing
1:10:16
Speaker 1: like the public's gonna want the over in a game
1:10:19
Speaker 1: like This atlanta against especially with thirteen runs scored Yesterday
1:10:23
Speaker 1: atlanta And, philadelphia it looks, like, oh this is gonna
1:10:26
Speaker 1: be a hitting, fiasco, Right BUT i don't think so
1:10:29
Speaker 1: against these two good. Pitchers schwellenbach's in good form three
1:10:32
Speaker 1: point four to ONE era this, month twenty five to
1:10:34
Speaker 1: five strike a walk, ratio and Against philadelphia he has
1:10:37
Speaker 1: pretty good numbers and seventy six at bats seventeen to
1:10:40
Speaker 1: three strike a walk, ratio two fifty average six oh seven.
1:10:43
Speaker 1: Ops so even though both both pitchers are familiar to the,
1:10:47
Speaker 1: hitters they're both really good, pitchers and they've both done
1:10:52
Speaker 1: well against these offenses in the. Past the total is
1:10:55
Speaker 1: basically sitting at eight with a little bit less juice
1:10:57
Speaker 1: on the OVER u for the full game tickets eight
1:11:00
Speaker 1: to nine percent of cash in the. Under But i'm
1:11:02
Speaker 1: recommending full game, under and the money is coming in In.
1:11:06
Speaker 1: ATLANTA i don't disagree with that. EITHER i prefer schwelling
1:11:09
Speaker 1: back a little bit Over, luzardo BUT i don't love
1:11:11
Speaker 1: The atlanta bullpen situation at all, here so worry about
1:11:15
Speaker 1: the bullpens of The philadelphia's woopen again isn't great. Either
1:11:18
Speaker 1: atlanta off for minus one forty five to minus, one
1:11:20
Speaker 1: fifty fifty three percent of cash on, them but fifty
1:11:23
Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets On, philadelphia so the cash is
1:11:26
Speaker 1: also On. Atlanta looks like a little bit of a
1:11:28
Speaker 1: stronger market run in the under And i'm doing it
1:11:30
Speaker 1: first five innings in that, One so that's gonna be that.
1:11:34
Speaker 1: One let's finish it. Off Cubs houston mcculler's coming back
1:11:38
Speaker 1: in this. Game houston won five games in a. Row
1:11:41
Speaker 1: they won again. Yesterday houston is hot right, now playing
1:11:44
Speaker 1: well at. Home they're good at. Home but The cubs
1:11:46
Speaker 1: basically saved their whole bullpend. Yesterday horton didn't do well
1:11:49
Speaker 1: and they brought In flexen to just finish the game.
1:11:52
Speaker 1: Off So, houston even though they have the better of
1:11:55
Speaker 1: the two, Bullpens chicago's isn't that bad The, cubs and
1:11:58
Speaker 1: the cubs bullpen is more. Rested BUT i do not
1:12:02
Speaker 1: like the starting pitcher for The cubs, Here Colin. RAY i,
1:12:04
Speaker 1: mean he had good numbers early in the. SEASON i
1:12:06
Speaker 1: told you he was gonna, regress and that has. Happened
1:12:09
Speaker 1: four point four to TWO, era one point three to.
1:12:11
Speaker 1: Nine whip don't love. It his home road splits are
1:12:14
Speaker 1: not very. Significant he's not a good form right. NOW
1:12:16
Speaker 1: i mean he's coming off giving up seven runs and
1:12:18
Speaker 1: four home runs to The Seattle, mariners which is not.
1:12:22
Speaker 1: Great has a five point five to seven E ra
1:12:24
Speaker 1: this month of four. Starts didn't do well against the
1:12:28
Speaker 1: offenses that are Better philadelphia And. Seattle did better Against
1:12:32
Speaker 1: washington And, pittsburgh as those are bad. Offenses houston is
1:12:36
Speaker 1: kind of somewhere in the. MIDDLE i would say they're
1:12:38
Speaker 1: not as bad as those two. Offenses they're not as
1:12:40
Speaker 1: good As philadelphia And. Seattle but overall he's not pitching
1:12:43
Speaker 1: well this. Month eleven to three strike a walk, ratio
1:12:46
Speaker 1: not a high strikeout, rate doesn't walk a lot of guys,
1:12:48
Speaker 1: typically but doesn't like really blow hitters away at. All
1:12:52
Speaker 1: houston has okay offensive numbers small sample size of twenty
1:12:55
Speaker 1: two two seventy three average seven fifty nine. Ops so
1:13:00
Speaker 1: they have okay numbers Against. Ray SO i do like mccullors,
1:13:03
Speaker 1: here but he is coming back from injury against you
1:13:06
Speaker 1: do have to take that into. Consideration he was making
1:13:09
Speaker 1: a nice bounce back from that long period of time
1:13:12
Speaker 1: off coming up those. Injuries LIKE i, said he had
1:13:15
Speaker 1: that one really bad start at home where his own
1:13:18
Speaker 1: fans are threatening his, life which is very bad, overall
1:13:22
Speaker 1: four point nine to ONE, era one point four to THREE.
1:13:24
Speaker 1: Whip but he's been better than that because that one
1:13:26
Speaker 1: start is really just messing with all of his stats
1:13:29
Speaker 1: nine point one to NINETY ra at, home just because of.
1:13:32
Speaker 1: That but other than, that he has not been that
1:13:34
Speaker 1: battle though he did have a bad outing last time
1:13:36
Speaker 1: out against The White, sox BUT i think he might
1:13:38
Speaker 1: have been kind of dealing with that injury again, Here
1:13:41
Speaker 1: SO i don't know how much we can really take
1:13:43
Speaker 1: away from. THAT U so he's only been out of
1:13:45
Speaker 1: commission for about two weeks a little bit more than.
1:13:47
Speaker 1: That made two starts In june thirteen to five strag
1:13:50
Speaker 1: out walker ratio three point two seven E ra wasn't that.
1:13:53
Speaker 1: Bad he was starting to become himself again and get
1:13:56
Speaker 1: into good form. Again And houston had won four games
1:13:59
Speaker 1: in a row that he had, started SO i think
1:14:01
Speaker 1: he might do well. HERE i, mean he is a
1:14:04
Speaker 1: veteran pitcher at this, point SO i KNOW i said
1:14:07
Speaker 1: it with The, evaldis you do have to worry about
1:14:09
Speaker 1: what is his pitch count going to be? Here and
1:14:11
Speaker 1: he is facing a good, offense and they have thirteen
1:14:13
Speaker 1: at bats against the only two of their nars have
1:14:15
Speaker 1: seen him. Before they do have a three to zero
1:14:17
Speaker 1: eight average of those six ninety two oh ps isn't that,
1:14:20
Speaker 1: high but it does also mean most of The cubs
1:14:22
Speaker 1: hitters are not familiar with, mccullors AND i haven't seen him,
1:14:25
Speaker 1: before SO i still prefer mccullors Over ray in this.
1:14:29
Speaker 1: One AND i don't Like houston's overworked bullpend, here SO
1:14:33
Speaker 1: i would Say houston first five innings is probably the.
1:14:36
Speaker 1: Play they're down for mis one to twenty five to
1:14:38
Speaker 1: minus one, twelve but eighty five percent of cash on,
1:14:40
Speaker 1: them fifty four percent of tickets on The. Cubs the
1:14:42
Speaker 1: public likes the team with the better, offense The, cubs
1:14:45
Speaker 1: and the team with the better. Record looks like the
1:14:48
Speaker 1: cash is coming in On houston again, though So houston
1:14:50
Speaker 1: looks like another anti public. Play it's just a matter
1:14:53
Speaker 1: of mccullors is a little bit of a, Gamble so
1:14:56
Speaker 1: what are we gonna get out of? Him BUT i
1:14:58
Speaker 1: still he is the better pitcher Over ray if we're
1:15:01
Speaker 1: gonna get a good game out of. Him but you
1:15:02
Speaker 1: do have to worry About houston's bullpen not being in great.
1:15:06
Speaker 1: Shape so mccullors may get you through four or five.
1:15:08
Speaker 1: Innings Playing houston first five, INNINGS i think does make
1:15:13
Speaker 1: some sense in that one and then finishing it Off
1:15:15
Speaker 1: washington And. ANAHEIM i, mean this game was very high scoring,
1:15:18
Speaker 1: yesterday fifteen to. Nine both starters did. Bad both bullpends are,
1:15:22
Speaker 1: terrible so we might be looking at another over. HERE
1:15:26
Speaker 1: i don't, know. MAN i Mean's soroka pitching for The.
1:15:29
Speaker 1: Nats he's not very good five point oh SIX, cra
1:15:31
Speaker 1: but his whip is actually. Good one point oh nine
1:15:34
Speaker 1: whip is not that. Bad he's even worse on the road,
1:15:36
Speaker 1: though five point nine to three ROAD. Yra he gives
1:15:40
Speaker 1: up a lot of hard. Contact, man that's the, problem
1:15:42
Speaker 1: because you, see like thirty one to eight strike out
1:15:44
Speaker 1: walk ratio this month is really. Good his team has
1:15:47
Speaker 1: lost his last three outings, though and like what it gives,
1:15:51
Speaker 1: right like thirty one to eight nice strike out walk.
1:15:54
Speaker 1: Race she was on gonna lot twelve hits in twenty
1:15:56
Speaker 1: two and a, third so some of his peripherals actually
1:15:58
Speaker 1: look really. Good but he's four home runs this, month
1:16:01
Speaker 1: ten on the season so far and only fifty three
1:16:03
Speaker 1: and a third, innings so the long ball is the.
1:16:06
Speaker 1: Problem he used up way too many home runs four
1:16:09
Speaker 1: point zero THREE era this, month so you might say
1:16:11
Speaker 1: that's a little bit fluky, though so maybe some of
1:16:15
Speaker 1: the numbers do Suggest soroca is maybe a little bit
1:16:17
Speaker 1: better than his numbers. Look but Against anaheim he hasn't been.
1:16:20
Speaker 1: Good it's small sample, size seventeen at, bats but four
1:16:23
Speaker 1: to twelve average, allowed oney fifty nine ohps not. Good
1:16:26
Speaker 1: King eery is four to eight with a double and
1:16:28
Speaker 1: a triple off, him So soroka may not have the
1:16:31
Speaker 1: best of the match up here. Either he's up Against Kyle,
1:16:34
Speaker 1: hendrix who you, Know i've liked to fade him over
1:16:37
Speaker 1: the last few years because he's kind of An he's
1:16:39
Speaker 1: just an aging veteran at this point with stuff that's
1:16:42
Speaker 1: not really that. Good four point eight THREE, era one
1:16:45
Speaker 1: point three to two whip not very good numbers this
1:16:47
Speaker 1: year better at home four point TWO era at, home more,
1:16:51
Speaker 1: serviceable and this month he's actually been somewhat. Good his
1:16:54
Speaker 1: team had won three starts behind him in a, row
1:16:56
Speaker 1: and he actually did well against The yankees on the,
1:16:59
Speaker 1: road which was his best start surprisingly uh three point
1:17:03
Speaker 1: five TWO era sixteen to five stray Walk racehio this,
1:17:05
Speaker 1: month so he is pitching decently recently Against. Washington he
1:17:10
Speaker 1: does have good numbers as, well in forty seven at,
1:17:12
Speaker 1: bats one seventy, average four twenty seven. Ops so it
1:17:16
Speaker 1: does look Like hendrix has the matchup bets, here but
1:17:19
Speaker 1: the money's coming in against. Him anaheim deff minus won
1:17:21
Speaker 1: thirty five to minus win eighteen sixty three percent of
1:17:23
Speaker 1: tickets fifty two percent of the, cash AND i think
1:17:26
Speaker 1: the sentiment is probably thinking, that, Well anaheim is probably
1:17:33
Speaker 1: not as good as the record would suggest because, uh
1:17:36
Speaker 1: they have like a negative run, differential AS i pointed out.
1:17:39
Speaker 1: Yesterday SO i Think anaheim is not as good as
1:17:41
Speaker 1: the record. SUGGESTS i think that has a lot to
1:17:42
Speaker 1: do with what's going on with the market. Here BUT
1:17:45
Speaker 1: i think the matchup actually does Favor anaheim a little. Bit.
1:17:48
Speaker 1: Uh the under looks like it's taking money with the
1:17:51
Speaker 1: total down from nine to nine juice to the under
1:17:53
Speaker 1: seventy six percent of tickets on the, over especially because of,
1:17:56
Speaker 1: yesterday eighty four percent of cash on the. Under with
1:17:59
Speaker 1: both pitchers being a little bit questionable, though and the
1:18:01
Speaker 1: bullpen's being, AWFUL i would not want to be on
1:18:03
Speaker 1: an under, here so, YEAH i mean that's the breakdown
1:18:07
Speaker 1: of that. Game market seems to disagree with me on
1:18:10
Speaker 1: the side there a little bit so or more than
1:18:12
Speaker 1: a little, bit So i'm staying off of. It that's
1:18:15
Speaker 1: gonna do, it. Man the two plays one more, Time
1:18:17
Speaker 1: cleveland moneyline And philadelphia And atlanta under in the first five,
1:18:22
Speaker 1: innings Both Major League baseball. Plays learned To toad On.
1:18:26
Speaker 1: Twitter thanks guys for hanging. OUT i do have a
1:18:29
Speaker 1: better off Dead instagram, now so you can start checking that.
1:18:32
Speaker 1: Out And i'm doing some really stupid shorts OR i
1:18:35
Speaker 1: just reiterate my plays in a less autistic and more stupid.
1:18:39
Speaker 1: Way that's What i'm trying to do. There maybe you
1:18:41
Speaker 1: need to come up with some more like something more
1:18:44
Speaker 1: gimmicky for. THAT i don't, know but people have short,
1:18:46
Speaker 1: attentionspan so that's the way that it. Is you can
1:18:48
Speaker 1: check that Out pedron dot com Slash Tower gang if
1:18:51
Speaker 1: you still want to support The Tower gang show that
1:18:53
Speaker 1: may or may not return you get all the bonus content.
1:18:57
Speaker 1: Though if you do, that the stuff that's already out.
1:18:59
Speaker 1: There so there is, that and that's about, it, Man
1:19:03
Speaker 1: so thanks for hanging. Out that's gonna do it for
1:19:06
Speaker 1: me for. Now and we'll see What i'm gonna do
1:19:08
Speaker 1: with my ukulele. Content i'm thinking about doing. SOMETHING i
1:19:10
Speaker 1: might be setting up A patreon soon and maybe be
1:19:13
Speaker 1: having a little bit of extra content from both this
1:19:16
Speaker 1: and the ukulele stuff that you would. GET i gotta
1:19:18
Speaker 1: figure it, out, Man Thanks, charles thank you. Sir that's
1:19:23
Speaker 1: gonna do it for. Me, yeah it's gonna try to
1:19:25
Speaker 1: build up The, instagram gotta build up this channel as,
1:19:27
Speaker 1: well so like. Subscribe thanks to, everybody and peace, out
1:19:32
Speaker 1: have a good, Day Happy. Saturday