Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Football on a Wednesday? | MLB & NFL Kickoff | 9/9/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Football on a Wednesday? | MLB & NFL Kickoff | 9/9/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out That fella fights hard But
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: he don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports. Wednesday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: September 9th. We got a win on the show yesterday.
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: 1-0-1 on the show. Tampa Bay, easy win with that one.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: Freddy Peralta, another good start from him. Smith-Shawver was ass,
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: so we easily got that win right. If you played
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: a first five, you also got it right. Arizona did
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: win the full game, but my play was the first five,
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: so that was a push.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: It was 0-0.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: At the end of five. I just didn't want to
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: deal with the bullpens, although I guess I'm not shocked
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: that Arizona won in extra innings because Kansas City's bullpen
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: is still an absolute disaster. But Burns only pitched three
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: innings in the game. He was decent. The bullpen held
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: their end of the bargain for the other two innings,
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: but Arizona couldn't get anything done against Walker. So, I mean,
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Maybe the under should have been a
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: play or something. I mean, I don't know. I mean,
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: If you had the under in that game, full game,
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: which I would have only recommended first five. First five
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: under obviously won because zero runs were scored at that point.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: But full game, I believe it did still stay under.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: I think it landed eight, so it still stayed under.
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: But that would have gotten a little bit questionable because
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: I think the game, yeah, it went extra innings. So,
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: all right. Anyway, today I will have three plays. I'm
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: a bit all over the map today. One side, two totals.
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: in baseball here, and I will talk about the NFL
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: game as the NFL starts officially regular season tonight on
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: a Thursday for some reason. All right, baseball. We have
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: some afternoon baseball going on because it is Wednesday, so
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: some of these teams are wrapping up series. Tomorrow, there's
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: going to be very little baseball, so I will enjoy
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: tomorrow's show because it's going to be really quick, like
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: five baseball games and one NFL game, and I think
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: that's it. All right, Minnesota-Detroit is the first game up.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: A division rivalry. These teams have split the first two games.
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: The games have been close. Each game decided by one run.
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: Detroit might be dead at this point, and Minnesota is
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: getting pretty close to being dead. I still think both
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: teams probably just show up motivated here, though, although Minnesota
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: actually has a shot at the playoffs, whereas I think
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: Detroit pretty much does not at this point. So will
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: that motivate Minnesota a little bit more? I don't know,
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: but Detroit will at least get to sort of play
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: spoiler if they're able to win this series. Minnesota used
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: four relief pitchers yesterday. They are definitely the lesser of
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: these two bullpens. Detroit used three. Minnesota is ranked 28th
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: in bullpen whip. They're a bad bullpen, as I keep saying.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: Detroit is a decent bullpen at number 16. Hitting-wise, Minnesota
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: is the better team. They're tied in eighth with the
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: Red Sox. Detroit is... 21st so they've definitely um fallen
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: off a bit over the last few weeks zebby map
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: he was getting the start from minnesota he's been decent
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: recently he's got a 4.69 era overall which isn't really
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: that good 1.25 whip is not that bad though uh 6.45
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: road era is not good so he is he's definitely
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: worse than the road so that is something that needs
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: to be taken into consideration here but Minnesota had won
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: six starts in a row of his before he lost
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: his last one against the White Sox wasn't great in
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: that start but he got a little bit unlucky I
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: think he allowed three home runs in that one which
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: yeah I mean maybe they were bad pitches or something
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: but the fact that he still only allowed four runs
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: in that type of performance I mean that isn't that
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: bad so I don't think he's like totally out of
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: form right now he had a good month of August
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: prior to that His hit rate is kind of mediocre.
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: He is kind of home run conducive, but he doesn't
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: really walk that many guys, although his strikeout rate is low.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: You'd like to see that be higher. 2.9 strikeout walk
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: ratio is actually the worst that he's posted, as well
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: as the 7.9 strikeout per nine. The last couple of years,
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: he was over 10. So it looks like he's kind
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: of changed the way that he is pitching, although he
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: has been better this year. His numbers against Detroit are
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: not good, though. 40 at-bats, 325 average, 1,036 OPS. 13-4
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, so too many negatives for Matthews here
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: for me. I mean, it's possible he's falling out of form,
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: but he's not good against Detroit, and he's not good
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: on the road, so I would not really want to
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: back him here. Keeter Montero is pitching for Detroit. He's
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: been decent, 3.52 ERA. I would say he's even been good,
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: a 1.03 whip. He's just not really a strikeout pitcher,
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: so advanced analytics still probably don't really like him, but
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: he does not allow many hits. He's been pretty good
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: at home with a 3.38 home ERA. Last start was bad, though,
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: on the road at Cleveland. That's not a good sign. Cleveland,
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: a team that can't really hit, and they knocked him
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: around for six runs in four innings, so maybe he
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: is kind of falling a bit out of form here.
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: Hasn't really gone that deep into his last three outings,
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: although the previous two were against L.A. and Pittsburgh. Those
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: are good offenses. The Dodgers, I mean, obviously, not Anaheim.
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is not bad at all. He doesn't
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: really walk many guys either, but the low number that
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: he has, the strikeout number is low, I should say,
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: but three strikeout walk ratio is not bad. Six strikeout
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: per nine is low, though. Like I said, he's just
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: not a strikeout guy, but he's effective anyway. He doesn't
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: put many guys on base, and his numbers against Minnesota
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: are okay. In 30 at-bats, 267 average isn't really that good,
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: but 657 OPS is not high. They only have one
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: extra base hit against them, which is a home run
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: from Larnach. 6-1 strikeout walk ratio there. They have six
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: hitters who have faced them. I'm going to lean Detroit
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: in this one. I think they have the matchup edge here.
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: I think both teams should be motivated, so I don't
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: really think that's much of a consideration here. But the
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: money's not agreeing with me. What else is new? 85%
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 64% of the cash on Detroit. They're in
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: the minus 130 range here. it's the way that I
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: see it. Money's also coming in on the under eight
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: and a half in this one, but I could see
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: the argument for that. Maybe that both pitchers, I guess
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: have been in somewhat good form recently, but if you
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: go under, I think you should do it first five.
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: Like this Minnesota bullpen is not something I'd want to
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: deal with at all, but I lead Detroit in that one.
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: I think they have the better of the pitching matchup.
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: Plus they have the better bullpen. So it's a small
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: lean there. Dirty sock. What's up? You're going to Oklahoma. Uh,
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: I don't think they allow gambling in Oklahoma. Am I wrong?
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: Do they now? Maybe the Native Americans do. Maybe they
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: allow it because the whole state is Indian territory. Do
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: they root for the Cleveland Indians? I don't know. Toronto
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: at the A's. Toronto did get the win yesterday for
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: you Moneyline Parlay people that were talking about that yesterday.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: You got the win with Toronto yesterday, I guess, so congratulations.
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: Toronto bounced back and beat the A's yesterday. I mean,
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: this A's team is obviously terrible, although I did not
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: love the price on that game. This game looks like
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: a real mess. I mean, this is bullpen game versus
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: bullpen game here. Although Toronto, I guess you have to
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: make the argument they're the better team, but also the
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: more motivated team because they're still in the wildcard race here.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: The A's definitely have the worst bullpen. They used two
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Toronto only used one.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: which is one of their bullpen arm guys, one of
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: their bullpen game guys, I should say. Toronto's the better bullpen.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: There's no question about that. They're number 17. I think
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: they're probably better than that. The A's are number 29,
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: but we all know they're the worst bullpen. They suck.
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: The A's are better offensively. They're number 13. Toronto, number 27.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: Bullpen game on both sides, though. It's listed as Braden
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: Fisher versus Brady Basso here. I mean, It's like straight-up
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: bullpen game for both teams. I think if you look
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: five games back, both teams just won the bullpen game,
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: so there's no real pitcher analysis to really do here.
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: You know me, man. I don't like bullpen games, so
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: I would probably play the over if I was going
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: to play this game. It's in the A's stadium, and
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: we know it's a hitter-friendly stadium. The total's not really
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: that out of control at 9.5. It's one of the
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: lower ones that you'll find at this ballpark. You can
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: find a 9 out there, actually. The Roman Emperor book
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: and at DK, there's a 9 juiced to the over,
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: so you can probably find a number that's below that
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: key number of 9.5 there. Money seems to agree with this.
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: 65% of the tickets are on the under, 89% of
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. Yeah, if you forced me
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: to do something with that game, I think that's what
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: I would do. I would just go over. You know me,
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: I hate bullpen games. But whether or not it'll happen,
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I don't really love relying
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: on Toronto's offense. 82% of the tickets, 88% of the
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: cash on Toronto as well. But, I mean, they're a
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: public side. They're massively favored. Minus 180. I don't think
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: a Toronto bullpen game should be favored by that much.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: Even if their bullpen is better than the A's. Do
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: what you want with that info, but I mean, I
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: don't have a great read on the side there. I
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: think the over is the better way to play that.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: They have a monopoly. You got to go to one
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: of the Native American casinos then to make the bets here.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: All right. Or just get, you have to get all your,
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: can you bet while you're in the air? How does
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: that work? Does it depend which state you're flying over?
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I've tried to bet from the
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: air before. I probably have, but I don't remember really.
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: St.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: Louis at San Francisco. This is going to be one
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: of my plays. So we have an afternoon play here.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: This is a spot where I think we're getting the
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: better team trying to avoid the sweep here with the
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: better pitcher on the mound. So I'm going to take St.
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: Louis in the first five. It's, somewhat juicy, I guess,
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: at minus 125. I think the full game price is
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: around the same, but I don't want to deal with St.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: Louis' bullpen. They are not a good bullpen, so I'm
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: going to avoid them, even though they only used one
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: guy yesterday. San Francisco used three, but whatever. I don't
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: want to deal with the bullpens. Well, really, I don't
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: want to deal with St. Louis. St. Louis is number 22,
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: San Francisco 24, but St. Louis' ERA is four and
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: a half it's 0.3 or well 0.2 runs worse than
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: San Francisco so I don't want to deal with them
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: offensively both teams are bad uh St. Louis is 24th
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's 18th but they're not as good at home
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: offensively and they're not as good as their ranking because
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: they just have these random explosions usually on the road
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: but we're gonna back Andre Payante in this one he's
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: Not really that bad. 3.51 ERA, 1.24 whip, and he's
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: way better on the road. 2.83 road ERA with a
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: 208 opponent batting average on the road. So he's in
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: the better of his home road splits here. He's going
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: to be in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I know his last
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: couple of starts weren't really that good, but they were
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: at very hitter-friendly ballparks at Cincinnati. Gave up four runs
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: on 10 hits there. Did still go six innings, though,
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: and had good command there. Then he had bad command
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: numbers in Coors Field, but he held the Rockies to
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: one run anyway. Whatever, though. I mean, yeah, he's not
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: in the greatest form right now, but His hit rate's
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: reasonably low on the season. His walk rate's not really
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: that bad. He does not strike guys out. He gets
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: a lot of ground balls, which I think is how
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: he got out of that Coors Field game there. 2.2
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, I get that's not good. He
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: doesn't strike guys out. 6.3 strikeout per nine. I'm still
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: backing him in this one, though, because he's good on
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: the road, and he's, I think, good enough against San Francisco.
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: 22 at-bats. 227 average, just a small sample here. I
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: know the OPS is slightly high, 755. He's only given
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: up two extra base hits to them, though. One home
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: run from Devers and one double from Gilbert, and a
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: 7-3 strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, that's not great. We know
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: his strikeout numbers are just never great, but I'm going
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: to back him here anyway. But St. Louis is trying
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: to avoid the sweep. I forgot to... Look at that.
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: I mean, I mentioned it at the beginning of this
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: analysis here, but they lost each game by one run here.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: And I like taking teams that are trying to avoid
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: the sweep, you know, because a lot of times they'll
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: be more motivated. San Francisco is also not a good team.
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: And the odds makers are telling you that by lining St.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: Louis as a favorite here on the road. But also
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is playing San Diego next. That's a big
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: divisional series, man. And San Francisco, it's an in-state rivalry.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: They might be able to play spoiler there. If they
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: beat San Diego, they can knock San Diego kind of
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: out of the wild card. So that's a big series.
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: So San Francisco might start looking ahead to that because
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: they really don't have anything to play for here. So
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: I like the motivational angle for St. Louis as well.
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: And we're going to fade Blade Tidwell here, who's pitching
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: for San Francisco. He hasn't been that bad, 4.43 ERA, 1.24 whip,
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: but he's in the worst home road split, 5.32 home ERA,
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: mostly because he's allowed home runs at home, even though
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: this is a pitcher-friendly park Yeah, it could be a
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: little fluky because his opponent batting average is pretty low
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: at home, but he's been worse at home. But you
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: look at his recent numbers, I mean, this is not good.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: His last home start, he allowed three home runs to Arizona.
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: Two of his last three starts in August were bad.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: He came back and he had an okay start at Pittsburgh,
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: sort of. Allowing two runs to Pittsburgh isn't really that
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: bad at all, but he walked five guys in that start.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: So he's having some issues here, man. And perhaps more importantly... Um,
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: how many, how many games in a row is this? Um,
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: eight games in a row that he's pitched San Francisco
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: has lost. So they're losing all these games that he's
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: pitching in recently. So that's not a good sign, not
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: a good trend. It's a good trend for fading him.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: He does have a low hit rate here. Doesn't really walk. Well,
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: actually no, his walk rate is pretty bad. Nevermind. And his, uh,
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: I'm like, wait, how many innings is he pitched? Uh,
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is also not really that good. So yeah,
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: his strikeout per nine is a strikeout. Walk ratio is
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: ugly at two, and his strikeout per nine is not
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: great either. It's 7.6.
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: St.
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: Louis only has a small sample size against him. Four
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: hitters have faced him, but they're three for six. 500 average,
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: 1125 OPS, despite not having any extra base hits here.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: One strikeout, two walks. So, yeah, I'm going to back St.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: Louis because of the motivational angle and because I prefer
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: their starter here. Better home road split for him. Money
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: seems to agree. 65% of tickets, 88% of the cash
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: on St. Louis. The price is what it is. This
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: is a first five play because I don't like St.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: Louis' bullpen. But the price is almost the same first
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: five in full games. So I see it at minus 125.
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: That's what I'm going to do in that one. The
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: money's coming in a little bit on the over eight,
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: eight and a half in that one too for whatever
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: that's worth. I mean, the pitchers are not exactly excellent
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: in that game, but I don't have a great read
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: on the total. The apps don't let you... Wait, what?
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: You can't use... Oh, you can bet if you're on 5G,
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: you mean? Oh, my God. I don't really remember that.
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: I don't fly that often. Oh, my God. So, wait
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: a minute. So, you're going to be making these bets
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: while you're at... What time is your flight? Am I
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: going to be able to get these done? Do you
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: want my plays now? Do you want me to spoil
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: the whole show? Like, how much time do you have?
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: because I'm going through these games here, man. I don't
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: have a play in the NFL game, though. Let me see.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: And then the last game, it's going to be a
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: while until I get to my last game. It's one
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: of the later night games, although there's only one really
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: late game, and it's not in that one. All right.
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: Next game is Texas-Seattle. Seattle's in trouble, man. They lost yesterday.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: This is a huge series of it. I mean, this
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: is a battle for the AL West. Seattle might be done, man.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, they kind of need to sweep the series,
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: and they got murdered yesterday, 10-5. Bryce Miller did pitch
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: in that game, and he was terrible. And Cal Quantrill
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: actually got moved up and pitched in that game for Texas,
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: and he was pretty good again. So kind of ridiculous there. Yeah,
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: Seattle kind of in trouble right now. Yeah, they've been
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: bad in multiple aspects of the game. They were much
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: better at last year. Seattle used a bunch of relief
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday, too. Miller was out of the game fairly early.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: They used six pitchers. That's not a good sign. Texas
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: only used two. Texas might have the bullpen edge because
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: of that. They're number 21 in bullpen. Seattle's number 20.
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: But Seattle's ERA is actually worse, too. These bullpens have
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: both been surprisingly bad this year. But Seattle's in even
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: worse shape in the bullpen right now. And they're also
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: not good offensively. They're number 29 offensively. That's bad. Texas
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: is number 14, tied with the Yankees and the Braves
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: right now. So Texas actually has the better bullpen and
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: offense here. And they have the more established pitcher on
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: the mound, at least, which is Cody Bradford, who I
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: analyzed him yesterday. because he was listed as the potential
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: starter yesterday. He's got a 4.45 ERA, although his whip
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: is bad, 1.58, but he's trying to come back from injury.
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: He missed all of last year. He was good in 2024.
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: He pitched for like half the season in 2024, and
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: he was good. So I think he is better than
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: what these numbers would suggest if he's able to bounce
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: back from whatever these injuries are. He hasn't really been
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: that good this year, though. He's got a better road ERA,
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: a little bit, 4.32, but his opponent batting average is
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: way over 300, both home and away, so he's not
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: pitching well right now. He's way too hittable. The hit
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: rate's really high. He's not walking anybody, though, but he's
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: also striking nobody out, so these are some weird numbers here.
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's pretty much like he's just throwing every
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: pitch right over the plate, so he needs to do
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: something about that. Like, perhaps not doing that. Texas has
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: lost his last, whatever this is, five outings, I think.
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: He's not doing well right now. Although he has good
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: numbers against Seattle in a small sample. Four hitters have
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: faced him. Two for 12. Both hits are from Naylor,
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: who I mentioned how ugly he is yesterday. He does
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: have a double off him, but whatever. 167 average, 481
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: OPS here. 1-1 strikeout walk ratio. Bradford might still pitch
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: well here. It's difficult to say because he's in really
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: bad form right now. Kane Anderson is pitching for Seattle.
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: He's the young lefty that they brought up who was
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: dominating AA, but they skipped AAA with him, and he
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: hasn't really been that good in the majors so far. 5.4 ERA, 1.47 whip.
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: He has a 5.91 home ERA, so he's actually been
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: worse in Seattle's stadium, even though it's pitcher-friendly. I don't
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: know what the deal is with that. A really bad
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: 308 opponent batting average at home, and all the home
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: runs he's allowed have come at home, although he's pitched
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: more innings at home. He's had two home starts, one
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: road start, but none of them were really good. His
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: numbers here, none of these numbers are good. The hit rate,
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: one per inning, yeah, not good. The walk number's too high.
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: Almost one walk every two innings. The strikeout rate isn't
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: very impressive. He has not been good so far. 1.6
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, 6.6 Ks per nine. None of that
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: is good. They should have had him work in AAA first, man.
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: Texas has never seen him before, so at some point
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: he might start pitching better, and it could be in
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: some game like this against an offense that isn't really elite,
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: that has not seen him before, but the unfamiliarity hasn't
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: helped him yet. He was unfamiliar to all these other offenses,
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: including Toronto, a bad offense, and he still wasn't good
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: in that one either, so I would not trust him here.
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: This is a tough game to really kind of figure out, though.
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: The money is heavily on Texas. The professional money, not
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: trusting Anderson here. 78% of the tickets are on Seattle.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: The public is on Seattle, even though their record is worse.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: There is a reason why Seattle's favorite, though. They're at
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: minus 160, basically. You know, it's weird. Like, why is
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: the public on Seattle when you got to think they
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: don't really like Anderson here, or They don't really know
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: who he is. Seattle's got the worst record. Why are
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: they minus 160 here, right? You think the public would
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: be like, oh, Texas, better team is the underdog, and
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: that's where they'd be. So I don't really understand the
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: percentages here, but 78% of tickets on Seattle, 76% of
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: the cash on Texas. I probably do agree with Texas
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: in this one. I think Bradford might be the more
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: backable pitcher here, and you might get the slightly better
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: bullpen from Texas here. I don't know what Seattle's mindset
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: is going to be after that loss yesterday. They could
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: be in a bounce-back spot because it was so embarrassing,
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: but they could also be feeling like they're pretty much
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: dead at this point. And Texas has to keep winning.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, Texas is only two games out of the
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: division lead. The total is very low at 7.5, so
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: the money... Seems to be indicating towards the under. It's
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: a very public over with more money coming in on
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: the under, it looks like, or less cash than tickets
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: on the over. I don't think I'd want the under
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: in this one, man. I mean, I don't think I
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: trust either pitcher really that much, so I don't really
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: love that. Although on the surface, it looks like it
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: could be an under type of game, but The bullpens
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: are also ugly, so you might even be limiting it
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: to first five. I don't know. I don't really like
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: what I'm seeing in that game at all. I think
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: maybe the better approach is to just lean towards Texas there,
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: but I don't have a great feel for that game
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: at all. Washington at San Diego. San Diego, another one
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: of those Moneyline favorites that won yesterday. They were the
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: one that I thought would definitely win. They did, but barely.
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: They won by one run. They've won each game in
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: the series by one run. Now Washington is... On the
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: verge of getting swept here, so Washington might show up
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: harder to try to avoid the sweep. But they played
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: competitively in this series anyway. San Diego, they have San
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: Francisco next. I don't really think that's a look ahead
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: for San Diego. San Diego needs to keep winning, of course,
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: because they're neck and neck with Arizona in the wild
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: card race here. So I don't think San Diego is
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: going to not show up here. San Diego used four
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: elite pitchers yesterday. They're a better bullpen by far. Washington
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: used five. San Diego is the way better bullpen. They're
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: ranked seventh. I think they're better than that. Washington's 26th,
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: and they're one of the bottom three bullpens in ERA.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: Washington is the better offense. They're number three. San Diego
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: is number 26. This is a pitcher-friendly park here, but
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching matchup definitely favors San Diego here, and
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: San Diego is a big favorite again. because they are
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: the better team. Jackson Kent looks like he's getting the
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: start for Washington. He's a young guy, a lefty. He
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: hasn't been good so far. 5.55 ERA, 1.68 whip. I
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: believe his minor league numbers didn't impress me either. He's
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: been really bad on the road. 7.43 road ERA so far.
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: Although this is going to be a pitcher-friendly park here,
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: but he's walking a ton of guys. He's had three
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: or more walks in all five of his starts so far.
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: And Washington's lost four out of five of them. Not good.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is mediocre. His walk rate's way too high.
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: Like I said, his strikeout rate is okay. So really
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: it's the walks, but it's dragging his strikeout walk ratio
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: all the way down to 1.1, which is like so
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: bad that you shouldn't even be in Major League Baseball.
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: A 7.8 strikeout per nine is okay-ish. San Diego, of course,
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: has never seen him before, so there is the unfamiliarity
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: here that might help. Like I say, when a pitcher
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: is unfamiliar to the opposing bats, a lot of times
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: it is an edge to the pitcher, but the pitcher
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: has to be good enough, and I'm not sure that
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: Kent is. As you can see, teams that were unfamiliar
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: with him beat him, and in fact, the only game
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: where he pitched somewhat well was the second time he
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: faced Miami. So the one time he faced an offense
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: that had just seen him and was more familiar with him,
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: he did his best. So he's, I don't know, he's
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: in backwards land or something. I don't know what's going
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: on with him. Walker Bueller is pitching for San Diego
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: and sounds a little bit crazy to say, but he
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: is the better pitcher in this matchup. A 4.56 ERA, 1.34 whip,
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: not exactly great. He is better at home though. He
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: has a four home ERA. He's been in better form recently.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: He had a decent month of August. San Diego's been
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: winning a lot of his games recently. In fact, they
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: won six in a row late July, early August, and
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: they've won eight of his last ten. And he's allowed
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: three or fewer earned runs in all of those except
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: for the first one of those. So he is pitching
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: fairly well right now. His command numbers look all right.
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: He's coming off a good start against the Yankees where
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: they wanted extra innings. That's a decent sign. Yeah, he's
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: pitching all right against some decent offenses here. Numbers against
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: Washington are pretty good. 17 at-bats, 235 average, 529 OPS.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: One extra base hit is a Ruiz double. Three strikeouts,
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: no walks. It's a small sample, obviously. Only six of
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: their hitters have faced him, but I like San Diego
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: in this one. The money does not agree. The money
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: is back in Washington. I don't really... The only reason
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: that I can see for playing Washington is the price
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: is too high on San Diego. That's the only reason.
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: argument that I could see because I don't see anything
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: in the matchup or the motivation that would have me
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: looking towards Washington here San Diego's well actually I've been
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: just the offense obviously Washington has the better offense but
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: I think pitching counters that San Diego's got the better
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: starter the better bullpen more motivation here it's all about
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: the price it's around minus 190 here minus 180s it
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: looks like it did drop a bit from the opener
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: 90% of the tickets on San Diego 56% of the
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: cash on Washington and I would not play Washington in
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: this one. The money's also backing the over 8.5 or
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: 8 here. I could see the argument for that. Both
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: pitchers are not exactly great, so maybe there is kind
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: of an over-argument there, but I think San Diego is
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: actually the right way to look at this game. You'd
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: have to find a way to actually do it, though.
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, you could take San Diego over their team total,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: but I don't know if you want to really take
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: Buehler out of the equation, though, because he is an
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: advantage in this matchup. As I just showed you with
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: the matchup numbers and better at home, whatever, you can
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: get San Diego probably in a minus one run line
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: at a decent price. And then if they win by
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: any margin, the worst that you'll do is push that bet.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: Maybe that's the right way to play this. I don't know. Still,
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: San Diego over the team total is a bit of
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: an option because you expect them to win. The money
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: is coming in on the over. You're going to need
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: them to score maybe six in the game, though, which
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: is maybe five, which with an offense like that in
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: a park like this is maybe not the easiest thing
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: to do. Oh, okay. That sounds good.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's all I got on that game. I think Cleveland-Baltimore...
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: These teams have split the games in this series so far.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: Excuse me. These teams are both in the wildcard race here.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is, um, right there, like in the last wildcard spot.
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: I think it's between Cleveland and Toronto right now, but
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is not that far back. Cleveland used four relief
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday. Although Baltimore got swept by the Red Sox recently,
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: Baltimore used five relief pitchers yesterday. Um, Cleveland, I think,
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: is the better bullpen, even though they're ranked lower in
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: whip they're number 13 baltimore number 11 but cleveland's got
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: a better era by decent uh margin so i think
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: cleveland is the better bullpen here baltimore is the better
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: offense although neither offense has been very good recently baltimore
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: number 20 cleveland number 28 cleveland's been really bad offensively
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: all season um This game, I think this game does
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: look like an under to me. Foster Griffin is pitching
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: for Cleveland. They picked him up at the trade deadline.
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: He was pitching well for Washington, seemingly from out of nowhere.
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.26 ERA this year, 1.14 whip. One
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: thing you do have to worry about with him is
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: the innings count. He's pretty high now, up above 160,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: and that's the first time he's done this in the majors.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: But he's still pitching pretty well. He's been slightly better
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: on the road as well, 3.14 road ERA. He had
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: one bad start when he first came over to Cleveland,
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: and since then he's allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: in all of his other starts, and Cleveland's only lost
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: one of those other ones, and it wasn't really his fault.
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he is pitching pretty well with Cleveland right now.
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate on the season, a
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: pretty low walk rate as well. His strikeout rate isn't
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: really that great, but he doesn't put many guys on base.
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: The walk number's pretty low, so three and a half
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, that's pretty good. Eight strikeout per nine
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: is not horrible. Numbers against Baltimore are quite good, although
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: they only have four guys who have faced them, or
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: five guys, excuse me. They only have one hit off,
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: and Blaze Alexander, who is getting the ire of the
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: Red Sox fans right now because he tried to hit
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: Trevor Story, I think, while trying to slide into second base.
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: He's got the only hit off of Foster Gripman, which
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: is a single. As a team, Baltimore's one for 14
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: often with seven strikeouts. One walk and no extra base
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: hits yet. So Griffiths had the upper hand against them
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: when he's faced them. 071 average, 205 OPS, good numbers,
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: and you don't want to take that much away from
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: a small sample, but he's been good against them, and
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: he's unfamiliar to half of their lineup, so that should
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: help him here. Shane Boz is pitching for Baltimore. He's
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: been decent recently, although he doesn't get run support, I believe,
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: so his record's really bad, but his numbers are not
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: that bad. 3.91 ERA, 1.33 whip could be better, but
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, his ERA is better at home, 3.63,
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: although his opponent batting average is actually higher at home
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: at a 270, which is not really that good. He's
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: been okay. His last four starts, he's allowed three or
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: fewer earned runs than all of them, although Baltimore's lost
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: three out of the four. But in those games, they
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: scored no more than one run in any of them,
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: so it wasn't exactly his fault. His walk rate is
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: still too high, though. Although he's been not allowing that
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: many runs. He's getting some decent strikeout numbers here. Pitched
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: well last time out against the Red Sox. For whatever reason,
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: he does pitch well against the Red Sox. But his
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: hit rate is too high on the season. It's not
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: really that good. His walk rate isn't great either. His
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is also not really that great. So none
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: of those numbers look that good. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: is not really that good. 8 strikeout per 9 is
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: somewhat okay. But he's facing a weak Cleveland offense here.
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: Boz has been okay recently, and he is good against Cleveland.
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: 47 at-bats, 234 average, 642 OPS, 12-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: So Boz does pitch pretty well against Cleveland. We got
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: two offenses that are not doing that well here. So, yeah,
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: like I said, I think the under is the way
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: to play this game. Money doesn't seem to agree. The
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: total is 8.5. 60% of tickets, 82% of the cash
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: on the over. I like the under, like I said,
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: and probably slight lean towards Cleveland for me. They're around
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: a minus 112 favorite or so here, and they're getting
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: the money. 51% of tickets, 62% of the cash on them. Griffin,
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: I think, is the better of the two pitchers here.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: So I'm going to lean Cleveland slightly. Plus, I think
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: they do have the better bullpen here. Maybe the motivation
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: is a little bit stronger because they're right there. close
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: to that last wild card spot, but that might overvalue
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: them a little bit in the market as well. So
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: I think I prefer the under in that game, though.
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: And both bullpens, I think, are somewhat backable there as well,
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: although I know Baltimore did use five guys out of
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: the bullpen yesterday, but even so, I think that might
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: be the better look in that game. Or you could
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: make it a first five under, I guess, if you
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: wanted to, but I don't know. I think full game
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: under seems right to me in that one. Houston and Philadelphia,
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: I looked at this and I was like, This game
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: looks like an under. I dug into it, and I
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: was like, maybe not. Houston won yesterday, but of course
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia was coming off the big series against Atlanta, so
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: I thought it might be a letdown spot. Houston got
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: the win, but it was close. They only won by
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: one run. Houston is battling for the AL West here,
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: so Houston probably has more motivation because they're in more
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: desperation mode here. Philadelphia is almost certainly going to make
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: the playoffs here. as a wild card. Houston, definitely not guaranteed.
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: So Houston probably does have more motivation here. Houston used
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: four relief pitchers yesterday. Philadelphia used four as well. I
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: think Houston is the better of these two bullpens. Neither
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: of them are that great, but Houston is ranked 12th,
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: although their ERA is above four. Philadelphia's ERA is worse
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: than that, and they're number 18. So I think Houston
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: has a slight edge there. Houston is the better offense
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: as well, number 12. Philadelphia, number 19. Philadelphia, as I
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: always mention, is better at home, though, offensively. But Philadelphia
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: has to go up against Hunter Brown offensively. Brown has
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: been quite good over the last couple of years. This year,
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: coming back from injury, he's had some issues, mostly with walks.
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.31 ERA, which is pretty good. Not
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: as good as what he has done the last couple
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: of years, though. 1.3 whip because he's walking too many guys.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: But he's been good on the road. 2.67 road ERA
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: with a 2.03 opponent batting average. That's really good. His
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: opponent batting average remains really low in the season. And
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: all of a sudden, he's starting to pitch better. He's
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: allowed three or fewer earned runs going all the way
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: back through late July, but he's starting to walk fewer
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: people too over his last couple of starts. So he
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: seems like he's coming back in a form here, man.
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: So Brown looks pretty good. His last two starts, he
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: had 17 strikeouts and only three walks over 12 and
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: two thirds. He might be back, man. One of those
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: was against the Mets, but the other was against the
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: White Sox. That's a decent sign. He does have a
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: low hit rate. He's always been very hard to hit.
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high on the season. His
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is pretty high as well, though. Still, strikeout
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is way lower this year than what he's
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: posted in the past. It's 2 because his walk rate's
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: been high, but like I said, he seems to be
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: kind of figuring that out again. 9.6 strikeout, 9 is
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: pretty good. Against Philadelphia, he's been very good. In 24 at-bats,
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: a small sample, but most of the hitters have faced him.
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: They only have two hits, no extra base hits. Singles
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: from Marchand, not Brad Marchand, Raphael Marchand. I have no
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: idea who that is. And Bryson Stott, they each have
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: a single off him. Nothing else going on here other
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: than that. Nine strikeouts, one walk, 083 average, 203 OPS.
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: So Brown, in a small sample, has kind of dominated Philly.
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: And Brown's better on the road. He's in better form
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: right now. So yes, I think Brown is going to
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: pitch well here. Christopher Sanchez is on the other side.
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: He's been one of Philly's better pitchers, obviously, although since
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: around the All-Star break, he hasn't been as dominant as
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: he was in the first half of the season. 2.58 ERA, 1.2
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: whip is not elite, but he's been really good at home, 1.83
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: home ERA. His walk numbers have been a little bit
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: questionable this year. He's generally not allowing many runs still, though,
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: and he is still striking out a lot of guys.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: He does have a hit rate that's a little bit
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: higher than you'd think from him, though. And actually, I
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: keep forgetting that because I keep thinking of him as
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: walking too many guys, but he seems to have kind
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: of changed the way he pitches, and now he's a
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: little bit more hittable, but he doesn't walk as many guys,
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: and he does still strike a lot of guys out,
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: and he does get a lot of ground balls as well.
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: He's an extreme ground ball pitcher, actually. He still has
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: a 4.9 strikeout per nine, which is really good. or
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. I mean, strikeout per nine would not
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: be good at all. 10.3 strikeout per nine is what
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: he has, which is the highest he's posted. So some
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: aspects of this, it's been his best season. Against Houston,
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: he's not that good, though. In 37 at-bats, 297 average.
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: That is quite high. They've been able to hit him
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: for contact. Power, not really so much. 748. Only a
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: few extra base hits in here. One home run from Paredes,
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: but he's got eight strikeouts, one walk here. Overall, though,
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: Both pitchers are in the better home road splits. I'm
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: still not going to disagree with the under in this one,
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: but the money seems to kind of disagree with it.
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: 74% of tickets, 92% of the cash on the over.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: Totals at 8, 8.5. I would still lean under in
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: this game, and maybe the bullpens are good enough to
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: back the under full game, but I think I prefer
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: Houston in this game as a side. You're getting them
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: as a decent underdog price. I think they have the
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: better starter on the mound, given recent form plus matchup numbers.
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: And Houston might be a little bit more motivated here. Plus,
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: I think they kind of have the better bullpen. And
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: you're getting them at, well, Philadelphia open minus 160. I
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: think you're having to pay a tax for Sanchez, to
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: be honest. And now you're in the minus 150s. So, yeah,
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: I think the best way to play this is actually
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: to take Houston. Like, I don't think they should be
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: this big of an underdog when they have some advantages
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: in this game you know motivation i think they have
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: the better starting pitching matchup and better bullpen and you're
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: getting them as a pretty solid dog here and i
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: think they have the better offense too am i i'm
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: not am i talking myself into this play i don't
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: think i want to but i like houston here um
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: yeah you might be able to play a plus one
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: run line on this with houston at a decent price
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: or just play them on the money line i would
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: do something like that probably yeah i think houston's the
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: best way to play that game mets at miami the
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: um Miami's on the verge of getting swept by the
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: Mets here. Mets pretty much spoiling Miami's season here at
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: this point. Miami trying to hold on to that last
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: shred of hope they can make the playoffs. It's not
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: going to happen. They might show up to try to
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: avoid the sweep here because teams trying to avoid the
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: sweep at home usually are in a pretty good motivational spot.
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: And the Mets, even though this is a divisional series
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: and the Mets– Might still show up for this. The
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: Mets have already won the series, and the Mets play
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: the Yankees next. So they have a subway series coming
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: up over the weekend with the Yankees. So it's possible
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: the Mets look ahead to that. Also, the Mets, I think,
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: have the worst starting pitcher in this game. So there
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: are definitely some things that are going to have me
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: leaning towards Miami in this one. The Mets used four
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. Miami used three. Mets are generally the
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: better bullpen, number six. Miami, number nine. So I think
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: if you do want to play Miami here, first five
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: might be the better option here because the Mets still
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: are the better bullpen. Miami is the better offense, number 11,
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: even though they're not that good, as I keep saying.
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: They're better than the Mets at 25th. This is a
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly park here. Robert Stalk. Unsolved Mysteries pitching for the Mets.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: Not good. 5.81 ERA. 1.75 whip is really bad. That's
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: like Patrick Sandoval. He's been awful on the road. 8.64
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: road ERA. It's a small sample, but still, he's not good.
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: Really bad. 368 upon a batting average on the road.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: That's abysmally bad. Yeah, he had one good start in
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: here that was kind of unpredictable against Tampa Bay. Last
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: time out, he only pitched a third of an inning.
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: against San Francisco five days ago. I'm not exactly sure
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: what that was. He doesn't go deep into most of
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: his outings, even though they have been using him as
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: a starter here. Although if you think they might do
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: something weird with the bullpen setup, I guess in this
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: game you could play junk must start for Miami and
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: don't pick a starter for the Mets or just play
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: this game action because Miami might put an opener in
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: front of junk too. Who knows? But I don't like stock.
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's good. His numbers against Miami are
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: actually good though. 14 at bats, not a huge sample.
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: Seven of their hitters have faced him, though. They only
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: have two hits, and they're both from Joe Mack, who
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: has a home run off him in a single. Nobody
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: else in this lineup even has a hit against Stock.
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: 143 average, 500 OPS, 4-0 strikeout walk ratio. I still
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: don't trust him, though. He's not a good pitcher at all,
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: but yeah, the matchup numbers look pretty good for him, though.
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: Jansen Junk, like I said, is... Likely getting the start
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: for Miami here. He's been mediocre. He's got a 4 ERA, 1.28 whip,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: but he's definitely better at home, which is where he
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: is here. 3.48 ERA, 237 opponent batting average at home.
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: That's pretty good. He's been decent over his last couple
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: outings here. Maybe coming back into somewhat of form here,
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: but he's not a strikeout pitcher at all. His hit
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: rate's a bit too high as well. Doesn't walk, guys,
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: but he gives up too many hits, and his strikeout
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: rate is really low. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is not
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: too horrible just because he doesn't walk, guys, but 6.2Ks
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: for nine. He doesn't really fool anybody. His numbers against
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: the Mets are also bad. In 24 at-bats, 375 average,
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: 840 OPS, 2.2 strikeout walk ratio. None of that is good. Stock,
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: by the way, if you want me to actually look
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: at his overall stats here, he's got an awful 1.9
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio this year. And his strikeout per nine
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: is actually not bad at 8.5. And I always forget
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: he was actually on the Red Sox very briefly last year.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: I think he made like two bullpen appearances or whatever.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, the situation favors Miami here. The starting pitching
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: matchup actually doesn't. The money is still kind of indicating
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: on Miami. They're in the minus 120s, 82% of the tickets,
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: 91% of the cash on them. I don't want to
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: do it, though. Even though they have the situational setup,
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: generally I think junk is better than stock, but their
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers don't look good. Junk bonds versus stock. It
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: sounds like we're talking economics right now. No, yeah, yeah.
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: I forget where my mind was going. I don't know.
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: That threw me off a little bit. Random jokes in
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: this show. I got to have more of them. I
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: got to be funnier. I don't know. Yeah, I mean,
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: the money's indicating on Miami, sort of, but they're kind
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: of public as well because the public sees them as
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: the better team. I agree, though, with the situation in
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: that generally they have the better pitcher here, but the
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers don't support that situation. The over is a
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: possibility here as well. The money's sort of coming in
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: towards the over here. Eight and a half is the total.
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, the pitching is just generally pretty bad in
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: this game, so the over does kind of make sense
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: in that one as well. All right. Anaheim and Boston.
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: Of course, the Red Sox lost yesterday. Like I said,
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Sandoval against Detmers. I mean, I know the matchup numbers
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: actually supported Sandoval there, but you know that Detmers is
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: the better pitcher against Sandoval. Sandoval was still not really
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: horrible in the game yesterday, but it was obviously not
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: good enough. The Red Sox could not hit Detmers. So
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: this is a split series right now. Will the Red
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: Sox show up to try to finish the series off?
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, the Red Sox are sitting
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: okay in the wildcard race right now. Anaheim, though, doesn't
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: have a whole lot to play for. Maybe they'll show
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: up for this one, but in this one, the Red
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: Sox do have the better starting pitcher on the mound.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are a very heavy favorite here, though, so
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: the price is probably asking a bit too much. Red
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: Sox used two relief pitchers yesterday. Really, their better relievers
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: are all going to be available today, though, and they
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen over Anaheim. Anaheim used four guys yesterday.
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are the number one bullpen whip still, number
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: two in ERA. Behind the Yankees. Anaheim is number 23
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: in bullpen. So the Red Sox do have a big
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: edge there. The Red Sox also have a big offensive edge.
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: Number 8 tied with Minnesota. Anaheim is 30th. Dead last.
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: And the Red Sox do have the better starter here
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: on the mound. Ryan Johnson is getting the start for Anaheim,
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: although he's been better recently, though. He's a young guy,
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: and maybe he's starting to come around a little bit. 5.17 ERA, though. 1.39 whip.
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are not very good, obviously. He's also not
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: good on the road. 5.72 road ERA. He's been good
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: almost like over the last month, though. He hasn't allowed
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: more than 200 runs in any start. However, his strikeout
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is still not good. Even though his last start,
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: it was good against Pittsburgh, which is not easy to
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: do in Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh's offense has kind of fallen
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: off a cliff recently since pretty much they realized they
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: couldn't make the playoffs. I still don't know if we
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: want to trust Johnson because even though he had a
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: sub-2 ERA in the month of August, he walked more
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: guys than he struck out. And that's not really a
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: good sign. The Red Sox were able to get to
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: him at the beginning of July. The Red Sox faced him.
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: He didn't pitch that well. Well, he gave up two
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: runs against him in four innings, but they had six
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: hits against him. He wasn't exactly great there, but six strikeouts,
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: one walk. I guess those numbers were decent there. He
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: does have a reasonable hit rate here. His walk rate
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: is kind of high. His strikeout rate is not impressive, though. 1.5
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, that's quite bad. Strikeout for nine, 6.7.
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: That's not good. So it's still mostly bad stuff from
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: Johnson here. Red Sox have not really done much against him, though,
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: in the past. Only four of their current hitters have
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: faced him. They're one for five against him. So it's
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: a really small sample. The only hit is a home
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: run from Jaron Duran, my guy who has now bleached
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: his short hair. And I believe he did accomplish another
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: 2020 season because I know he hit his 20th home run.
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: I think he already had 20 steals, so if he
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: doesn't yet, he will get it. So another 20-20 from Duran.
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: Red Sox do have two walks, two strikeouts against Johnson,
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: but only a 200 average with 1229 OPS because it's
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: such a small sample. What do you do with this info?
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: There's not a lot to do with it. Like, Johnson's
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: not a very good pitcher. I mean, that's just what
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: I'll say. At least right now he's not, although his
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: last start was good. Jake Bennett is the more established
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: starter here, even though he's really young as well. He's
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: had a good season for the Red Sox, a 3.34 ERA, 1.02 whip.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit worse ERA-wise at home, 3.52.
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: Opponent batting average is around the same, home and away,
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate, for whatever reason, goes up at home.
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: He's pitched generally pretty well, though. His last three starts after,
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: he had a few starts that were not good. His
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: last three starts were all good. Again, so he is
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: pitching better again recently. He has a pretty low hit
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: rate here. He has a really low walk rate. He
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: doesn't walk anybody. His strikeout rate is not that impressive,
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: but combined with the really low walk rate, four and
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: a half strikeout walk ratio, that's pretty strong. Even though
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: his strikeout per nine is only 7.3, his command is
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: pretty good. Numbers against Anaheim are reasonable. 19 at-bats, small sample.
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: uh five guys six guys have faced him excuse me
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: 5-0 strikeout walk ratio 263 average allowed 684 OPS only
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: one extra base hit as a home run from Siri
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: Bennett pitched against Anaheim not too long ago in that
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: same series in early July in Anaheim and he pitched
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: well in that start he went seven and two thirds
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: and only allowed two runs in that one and picked
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: up a win with a strikeouts no walks five hits
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: so he was good in that start if that was
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: him against Johnson he outpitched Johnson in that one but
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: whatever the matchups were he had a better start than
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: Johnson in that series now the question is can you
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: really lay this price with the Red Sox they should
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: win I mean they should have the pitching advantage throughout
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: this game but They're at like minus 220 here. The
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: answer is no, you cannot lay a price like that.
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm never going to do that in baseball.
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: And I don't even think it's strong enough. I don't know.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: I don't think the Red Sox are strong enough in
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: this game, although maybe it's my bias being a Red
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: Sox fan and never thinking that they're going to win, basically. No,
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: sometimes I think they're going to win. I liked them
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: the last Bennett start. I thought the Red Sox would win.
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: It was a good situation, and they did win. 91%
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 94% of the cash on the Red Sox.
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: Money also seems to be kind of indicating on the
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: over nine here. It's nine or nine and a half.
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: I don't have a great feel for this game at all, man.
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: It seems like the Red Sox should have the advantage
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: of enough to win here and bounce back from yesterday,
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: but I would not bank on it. You would have
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: to lay like a minus one and a half run line.
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: At least if you do that, it's a high total,
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: so maybe enough runs will come home to do that,
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: but This is not a game I'm getting involved in
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: in any way. I don't like that game much at all.
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: All right, next game up, I do like. This next game,
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: we're going to take Colorado and the Yankees over the
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: total of nine. The Yankees do have Aaron Judge back,
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: and I think he already hit a home run yesterday.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: And yesterday's game was not particularly high scoring with a
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: 5-3 Yankee win, even though the Yankees are returning home
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: from the road. The Rockies fucking blow. So Red Sox
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: and Yankees both playing really bad teams right now, and
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox not taking advantage of it because the
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: Red Sox started Bayo and Sandoval in the last two games.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: At least they won one of the two. Yankees-Colorado, I mean,
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: this is a huge mismatch, obviously. Yankees are a huge favorite,
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: but neither pitcher is really that good in this matchup,
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: and that's what I'm looking at. I'm looking at the
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: over in this one, even though the Yankees do have
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: a good bullpen. They only used three guys yesterday out
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen. Their bullpen is definitely rested here, but
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: if the starter doesn't do well, some of the worst
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: relievers will come in, and that's what I always say.
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: Colorado's bullpen is also a train wreck, and they used
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: five guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They're number 27
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: out of the bullpen. The Yankees are number two and
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: have the best ERA. So, yeah, the Yankees are the
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: better bullpen, but even so, I think the starters might
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: do poorly here and cascade into the bullpens here. That's
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: what I'm banking on here. Colorado's number four in offense,
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: tied with Milwaukee, so they could definitely hit. Yankees are
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: number 14, tied with the Braves in Texas. Yankees kind
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: of starting to pick it up again offensively, and like
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: I said, Judge is back now, so that's going to
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: help their lineup a lot, I would say, because it
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: seemed like their lineup fell off when he was out,
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: so they shouldn't be that heavily reliant on one guy,
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: but whatever. Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching for the Rockies. He's
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: been kind of bad recently. He was decent for much
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: of the season but he's started taking some losses here
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: he's got a 5.19 era now 1.35 whip obviously those
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: are not good numbers advanced analytics guys celebrating uh because
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: they were saying this guy was going to regress he's
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: been particularly bad on the road believe it or not
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: he's actually somehow better in course field but he has
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: a 5.46 road era not good Oh, the 286 opponent
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: batting average on the road, so he's not good on
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: the road, and the Yankees have a somewhat hitter-friendly stadium
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: as well. Sugano did actually bounce back after he had
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: three really bad starts in a row. He bounced back
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: and pitched well last time against Baltimore, but I think
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: he kind of got up for that game because he
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: used to be on Baltimore, whatever. I don't see him
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: doing as well in this game. He's got a high
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: hit rate. He gives up a ton of home runs.
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is low, so at least he doesn't walk, guys,
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: but he also doesn't strike anybody out. And he's kind
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: of a fly ball pitcher. So in a way, he's
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: kind of serving up BP out there. You know, batting practice.
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: Not Brian Power, one of the hosts of the Morning Wager,
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: which is a show that I always watch on Wager
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: Talk and Picks and Parlays with Brian Power and Mark Zinno.
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: It's a very entertaining game. Why the hell is Google
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: calling me? I don't understand what's going on here with us.
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: Hopefully that is unimportant, but I guess we'll find out Um, Sugano,
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: what was I going to say? 2.6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: That's not great. Uh, 5.4 strikeout per nine is very bad. Um,
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: What else do I have to say about him? Oh, yeah,
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: he's not good against the Yankees. That's right. 54 career
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: bats against the Yankees. Of course, Sugano was on Baltimore
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: last year, so the Yankees have seen quite a bit
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: of him. And by the way, Judge is 7 for
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: 9 often with three home runs. So Judge being back
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: in the lineup is going to help this play probably.
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: The Yankees have a 333 average against him, 924 OPS,
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: 12 to 3 strikeout walk ratio. So the ratio there
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: is good. All the rest of these numbers, pretty ugly.
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: And yes, three out of the four home runs the
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: Yankees have against them are from Aaron Judge, and the
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: other is from former Colorado Rocky, Ryan McMahon. Yeah, so
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: I don't think Sugano's going to pitch well, but on
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: the other side, the Yankees do not have one of
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: their better starters on the mound. In fact, they have
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: debatably their worst starter going, which is Will Warren, 4.16 ERA, 1.38 whip,
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: not great. He is a little bit better at home.
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: His home road splits are not that significant, though. 4.02
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: home ERA. He only pitched two and a third innings
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: last time against San Diego. I don't know why that
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: was a shortened outing from him. He didn't give up
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: any runs or hits, but he had no strikeouts as well.
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: Walked one guy. He pitched really well against Boston the
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: start before that in that horrendous 16-1 game where it
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: just unraveled late in the game. But prior to that,
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: he was not pitching well, giving up a bunch of runs,
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: not going deep into games in the prior starts in
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: the month of August. He has kind of a high
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: hit rate here. He's a bit home run conducive, which
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: isn't great. His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: is okay. So his strikeout walk ratio is, yeah, I mean,
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: it's 2.8. It's not too bad. 8.8 strikeout per nine
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: is actually the lowest that he's posted. His numbers against
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: Colorado are not good. 16 at-bats. I know it's not
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: a big sample, but they have a 375 average. 1,069
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: OPS against them. Four doubles here as well. And a
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: 5-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: 7-2.
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: Of their hitters to face them. So, yeah, I think
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: this game is an over. Neither starting pitcher is that good.
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: Both offenses, I think, have the edge in this one.
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: Even though the Yankees' bullpen is good, all the rest
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: of this pitching should be bad. The money seems to
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: really agree with me on this. 50-50 on the tickets,
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: 91% of the cash on the over. So, you can
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: find a nine on this, I'm pretty sure, at a
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: lot of books right now. So, you don't have to
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: lay that hook of nine and a half. I think
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: you can find the... The over nine right now, yeah.
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: I would not want to play the side in this one.
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: The Yankees are around minus 250 here. I mean, I
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: think that's too heavy a price, though, with Warren on
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: the mound. I mean, Colorado always is, you know, like
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: they're a doormat, basically. So the odds makers always disrespect Colorado.
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: Usually you do have to pay a bit of a
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: tax for the Yankees, even if it is Will Warren
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: on the mound. So the public is on that side,
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: 94% of the tickets. only 88 of the cash so
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: the money is kind of indicating towards colorado i'm not
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: going to deal with that though i just see this
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: being a slug fest i think it's just bad pitching
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: um i don't think the yankees are going to lose
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: i mean the yankees are the better team and have
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen so they probably are going to find
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: a way to win this game but i like the
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: over in that one the owner of the abs just
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: bought the angels um No, I did not see that.
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: But what is he going to do with the Rockies?
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: You can't entice good pitching to go to the Rockies.
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: No good pitcher is going to want to pitch in Colorado.
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: That's just the way that it is. I mean, there
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: were some good pitchers there in the earlier days, but
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: it's just not going to happen. Guys have become hip
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: to it. They're smarter about it. Hold on. How many
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: games do we have left? Five games left. All right,
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: I'm going to take a break. I'm going to see
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: what the hell Google is calling me for. Hopefully it's
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: just some bullshit. I know I have some Google accounts
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: and whatever. Yeah, I'll be right back. I have one
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: more play in here. I'm not sure how great it is,
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: but it's on my card. I'll be right back. Yep, inside.
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: I want to kill myself. We were on an 0-7
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: 1-5.
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 58:28
  Speaker 4: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: I just have not had a good season, man. What
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: can slump do? Then I'm on and the slump continues.
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: my Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: on with the Bruins. March 8th? Is that what it is?
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: I don't even know. It's March 9th, I think. Who
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: even knows, man. I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: possibly have. Back with you as I always am. Until
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday. and yesterday did not
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: go well for me. 0-5, the worst month that I've
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: ever had in my 18 years doing this. I don't
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: know what I should do at this point other than
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: potentially end it all.
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they left me like a voicemail that had nothing
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: in it, so I don't know what the hell. Probably
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: some bullshit. Anyway, what's the next game? Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: This is on MLB Network. We got... It seems like
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: they don't want anything to really compete with the NFL
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: game tonight, but this game will be on one of
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: the channels if you have the sports package or whatever,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: which I do. We won the game easily yesterday with
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: the Tampa play, so I'm happy about that. Atlanta was
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: at a rest disadvantage and returning home from the road,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: so that's a double whammy. Tampa won easily, but this
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: is the type of spot where a lot of times
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: the home team does bounce back because a lot of
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: times when they lose that first game at home, especially
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: if they lose embarrassingly, they bounce back and do well
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: in the next game. I'm not going to be banking
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: on it here in this one, but maybe Atlanta is
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: going to be the right side here. I don't really
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: have a great feel for this game. Atlanta used two
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. Tampa Bay used three. These are both
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: pretty good bullpens. Tampa Bay is ranked fourth. Atlanta is
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: ranked third. Tampa Bay is not as good as that
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: ranking would suggest. Atlanta is one of the top five bullpens, though.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: Atlanta is number 14 in hitting, as I already mentioned,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: tied with Texas and the Yankees. What are we talking
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: about here? Atlanta and Tampa Bay, right?
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: Both offenses are pretty capable. Tampa Bay is sixth, tied
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: with Pittsburgh right now. I'm not sure. Like, I don't know.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, to me, I think Atlanta might have the
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: better offense, though. Griffin Jacks is pitching for Tampa Bay here.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: He was injured for a bit. I think he came
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: back recently. He's been decent, 3.82 ERA overall. 1.27 whip.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: He's not as good on the road, though. 4.06 road ERA.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: In fact, Tampa is not as good on the road,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: which I was willing to take them yesterday because they
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: are still above 500 on the road, whatever. But they're
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: a much better home team, though. Tampa's definitely more vulnerable
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: on the road. Atlanta is very, very good at home.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: Jack's not as good on the road. His opponent batting
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: average is not that good on the road. But yeah, 4.06
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: road ERA from him. He did not pitch well in
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: his last start after he was out for about a month.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: He was not very good against the Mets, although a
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: bunch of unearned runs came home against them. Still not good,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: and not a good sign that that happened at home
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: against a weak offense. Jax is also not that good
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: against Atlanta. They only have 15 at-bats against them, but
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: everybody in their lineup has seen him before. 333 average,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: 775 OPS, 5-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. So I don't think
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: Jax is going to do particularly well here. Ronaldo Lopez
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: will be getting the start for Atlanta. He's coming back
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: from the injured list again. What else is new? He
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: had a really good season a couple years ago, but
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: he's been all over the map throughout his career, so
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: it's like, who is he really? I honestly don't know.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: He's mostly been a relief pitcher throughout his career. He
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: was a starter for a bit with the White Sox,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: had one good season back in 2018, was pretty bad
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: the next season in 2019. Then wasn't a starter again
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: until 2024 for the full season when he actually did
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: really well with Atlanta. And since then, he's basically been hurt.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: And he hasn't pitched much. He's pitched a little bit
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: this season. 3.64 ERA. 1.34 whip is not that good, though.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: So he is putting guys on base. He's not that
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: good at home. 3.79 home ERA. Although his opponent batting
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: average is actually better at home. His last start was
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: pretty good before he got injured, which was at the
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: end of July. He had a five and two third
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: inning shutout against Baltimore. Then he got hurt. So he's
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: coming back after missing about a month here. I do
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: usually like veterans coming back from injury like this because
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: they're like used to it. They get pumped up to
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: be back out there. We'll see about that. Between the
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: bullpen and the starting rotation here, he's got a reasonable
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: hit rate. His walk rate is just okay. Not great, really.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is okay. Not really a whole lot to
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: love here. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is not great. 8.3
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: strikeout per nine is fine. Lopez against Tampa Bay. if
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: I can actually spell this, because I hate them when ESPN,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: when the guy gets reactivated and they don't have the batter,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: why would they take away the batter versus pitcher tab?
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: Just leave it up. You fucking idiots. Uh, Lopez against
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. Uh, they only have four guys who have
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: faced him 21 at bats, no extra base hits, two
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: 86 average, six 61 OPS. So the average is kind
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: of high, but the OPS is not that high. Probably
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: Atlanta is the right side here. I think that is
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: probably the way to play this game. Um, 63% of
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: the tickets, 68% of the cash on Atlanta, so they
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: might be a little bit public, but it looks like
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: the money's coming in on them as well. The public
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: might look at this and not be able to decide
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: which side they want, you know what I mean? Because
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: both teams have good records here. Atlanta's in the minus
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: 120-something range here. Money's also backing the over a bit,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: over 8.5, but I don't have a great feel for that,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: but I'm going to slightly lean Atlanta. Yeah, but Lopez,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: I mean... I don't know. If you look at his
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: overall numbers here, though, like, I didn't go over his
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: complete stats here. Hold on. Like, you look at his
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 4: game log. Oh, no, I did. I did. Never mind. Yeah,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, there's something wrong with Lopez here. Like,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: he's putting too many guys on base. Yeah, your parlay hit.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: I still would not have done that. Like, one of
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: those could have lost and taken the whole thing down. Like,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers was close. I didn't really agree with the Yankees.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: They were in a bad spot. Yeah, there's no way
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: I would have made that parlay. I think Toronto was
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: really pushing it as well. They barely won. Not a
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: good idea, man. Speaking of parlays, Josh Smith, what's up, man? Wait, Doomscrow,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: did you change the name of your show? Is it
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: not Break the Cycle anymore? What's going on? You're parlaying
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: every NFL game? At least it's only... As long as
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: you realize you're playing the lottery here, man. As long
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: as you realize that, because the odds are... The books
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: never give you good enough odds, and obviously one loser
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: is going to take that whole thing down, but it's $ 10,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 4: so whatever. Maybe you'll get lucky. Who's your... Wait, who
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: do you have tonight on this Moneyline Parlay? I'm assuming
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: this is all Moneyline stuff, right? Yeah.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: It was lucky. I would not have done it. You
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: know me. I'm not going to recommend that shit. Like
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: a very public Moneyline chalk parlay. No way. Doomscrow, you're
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: live right now. Everybody watch me instead of Josh Smith,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: but go watch Josh after I'm done here because I'm
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: almost done. You're on Seattle. I have a hard time
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: with this game tonight. Yeah.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: The Padres were the only one of those that I
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: actually liked, and yeah, they barely won. But yeah, all right. Okay. Arizona,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: Kansas City, this is ugly. I mean, we took a
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: push in the first five yesterday, and of course, Arizona
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: wound up winning the full game. Burns was fine, even
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: though he only pitched three innings in the game, which
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: Was a risk that I was willing to take in
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: that one, but we got the push in that one
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: because Arizona couldn't fucking score a run. Waco was good
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: in the game yesterday. It is what it is. Kansas
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: City's on the verge of getting swept here. So you
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: know what I say. When teams are on the verge
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: of getting swept, a lot of times they do play better,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: especially when they're at home. The other question is, who
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: is Arizona playing next? Are they going to overlook Kansas
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: City here? Arizona's playing Texas next, so both of those teams...
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're in different leagues, but both those teams
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: are fighting for playoff positioning, so maybe that is kind
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: of a bigger series. So the situation probably does favor
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: Kansas City a bit here, but I don't know if
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: I really want to deal with them. Kansas City's bullpen
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: is an absolute disaster, and they used a bunch of
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: guys here, six guys yesterday. I'm not dealing with that bullpen.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: I believe it was an extra inning game, right? Yeah,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: because I said it was. Arizona has used a bunch
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: of guys out of the bullpen over the last two
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: days too. I would not back either bullpen here. Arizona
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: used six guys out of the bullpen. They're ranked fifth
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: in bullpen whip, as I always say, but Arizona's ERA
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: is still above four out of the bullpen. I don't
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: love their bullpen and certainly not in the current shape
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: that they're in. And I certainly don't love Kansas city's
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: worst ranked bullpen. Although again, they're better than the A's,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: but there's still a terrible bullpen. Um, Hitting-wise, the A's
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: are the better team, number 13. Kansas City, number 17.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: Although Kansas City does hit better at home. Zach Gallin
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: will be coming off the DL. I forgot about him.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: He's been on the DL for a long time. So
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: Arizona all of a sudden is getting a bunch of
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: pitchers back, man, with Burns back now. Gallin is back now. Gallin,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: he did not have a good season before he got injured.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: And maybe the injury was already there and it was
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: plaguing him because he has a 6.34 ERA this year. 1.56 whip.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: But if you look at his career numbers, they're obviously
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: way better than this. So it seems like there was
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: something a little bit off about him this year. A
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: two strikeout walk ratio is lower than what he's posted
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: in the past. 5.6 strikeout percentage.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: Nine.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, that is so much lower than what he's
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: posted throughout his career. It's like half almost of what
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: he posted some of these years. So to me, I
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: think there was something wrong with him. And maybe during
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: his injury list stint, maybe he figured something out. He
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: was not good on the road, 6.84 road ERA. His
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: opponent batting average over 300, both home and away. So yeah,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: he has not had a good season so far. He
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: was unbelievably hittable. His walk rate was just okay. His
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate was way down, so I don't know what
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: was going on with him. But again, it was like
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: it wasn't him out there because we've seen what he's
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: done in the past, and he's not that old at 31.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 4: So I don't know, man. But I think you've seen
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: it happen before where these guys are out for a while,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: like on the injury list or whatever. They come back
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: and they pitch better, and I think that might happen
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: with him because he was much better in the past.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: He's a veteran, so I don't think he's going to
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: be that thrown off by being on the injury list, whatever.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: The disabled list, I still call it. It's able list, man.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: The able list. Gallon against Kansas City has been good
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: in the past. 32 at-bats, 11-1 strikeout walk ratio. That's good.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: 219 average allowed, 617 OPS. Those numbers are good. So
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: I actually think Gallin might be able to pitch well here.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: And you know me, I like to back pitchers coming
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: off a long injury stint or an injury stint if
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: they're a veteran. Daniel Lynch IV is pitching for Kansas City.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: He's been good, although mostly out of the bullpen. 3.51 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: He's pretty good at home. 3.18 home ERA with a
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: good 194 opponent batting average. But as a starter, it
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: hasn't really gone well for him, man. His ERA last
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: month was almost six. He didn't pitch well in his
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: last outing against Toronto. He gave up five runs in
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: five innings against Toronto with no strikeouts. That's not good.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: So even though his numbers look good, I'm not going
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: to trust Lynch here. Um, There's a possibility Kansas City
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: puts an opener in front of him or something. So
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: if you're going to play this game, I guess you
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: might want to just pick Gallen must start, but don't
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: pick a starter for Kansas City here. It probably will
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 4: be Lynch, though. But yeah, I'm not liking what we're
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: seeing out of Lynch here, although he does have a
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: pretty low hit rate. His walk rate is okay. His
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is low, though. He does not strike guys out. 2.3
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is not good. 6.2 strikeout per nine
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: is extremely unimpressive. Numbers against Arizona are okay, and 23 at-bats,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: 261 average, 696 OPS, 3-0 strikeout walk ratio. I started
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: that whole analysis by saying Kansas City... was in the
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: better spot. And, of course, the money is actually slightly
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 4: leaning that way because that's what always happens. It seems
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: like the money is always on that situational angle of, oh,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: this team is trying to avoid the sweep. 53% of
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: the tickets are on Arizona. 53% of the cash on
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. Arizona's around minus 120. Everybody kind of knows
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: Arizona's got to have the motivation here, though, because they've
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: got to keep winning. But I think that means they
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: can't really overlook any of these games. They need to
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: keep winning to keep pace with the Padres here in
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: this wild card race. And I'm on minus 120 here.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: I kind of like Arizona in this one. I think Gallon,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: people are going to not want to take him really
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: because his numbers look so bad. But he's definitely better
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: than that. The money's coming in on the over as well,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: over eight and a half. I don't really know about that.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, the best angle for the over in this
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: one is that you leave the bullpens in and you
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: go full game with the over because the bullpens are
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: so taxed. After the last two games or whatever. And
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: well Kansas City is just shit. So yeah. The over
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: full game might make sense. Although the first five doesn't
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: really entice me as much. But yeah. Maybe the over
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: is actually the better way to play this game. But
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: I think I slightly lean Arizona there. Oh your show
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 4: is Doomscroll Live. Alright. I gotcha. Do you just Doomscroll
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 4: Twitter and just. Is that what you do now? Is
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: that the thing? You just find... Doom scroll Twitter and
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: you find the tweets. That would be dangerous. You can't
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: really do that on YouTube, though, because Twitter allows porn. Oh, yeah,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: let's make fun of this horrible tweet from this politician. Oh, yeah,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: and then the next tweet is, I don't know, some
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 4: chick's butthole. Yeah. Dirty sock, yes. You got close with
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 4: one of those parlays. Losing by a half point in
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 4: the last one, yeah. You know I don't recommend it,
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: but if you do it, do what Josh is doing.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: If you do it and put a little bit of
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: money on it and hope that you get lucky. Basically
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: just play the lottery. Dude, I'm playing the lottery. I'm
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: in a survivor pool. One of the big ones on
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: Splash where it's a huge payout. But literally the winner
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: gets paid out and that's it. If everybody that's still
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: alive gets knocked out in the same week, then the
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: pool gets split completely. But, yeah, I mean, it's like $ 100,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: or I don't know. I forget what the entry was. And,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: you know, it does take some skill, but it becomes luck, really,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: with Survivor. Like, it's skill-based, but, I mean, anybody with
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 4: skill can lose in Survivor. Like, it takes one loss
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: to knock you out. But I'm doing it. I always
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: do it. So I'm not doing the college one this
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: year because it was just insane chaos. But I'm in
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: the NFL one, and I have a pick five NFL entry.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: Kind of like the Vegas Super Contest, which I won
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 4: money in last year. Not the Super Contest, but in
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: a splash one that's similar to it. I won last year.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: And I'm in a college one that has started off
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: really poorly already, where you pick seven every week. I
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: have to turn that around now. I can't afford any
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: other bad weeks in that one. Gallon went to UNC. Yes.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: Is he from North Carolina? I forget. I can look.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: Let me see. oh he's from new jersey all right
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: uh but yeah he played at unc a lot of
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: uh a lot of pitching comes out of north carolina
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: but like i mean like guys like zebby matthews i
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: mean guys that like actually were born in that state
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 4: arizona money line first five um good luck well why
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: would you why would you limit it to the first
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: five though I mean, well, I guess. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: I guess the argument would be what I said yesterday.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: I guess because both bullpens are just destroyed. I mean, yeah,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: you don't want to really back either of them. Yeah,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: I guess that makes sense. I don't know. I don't
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: want it. I'll tell you that. I wanted it yesterday,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: but I don't really want it this time. $ 10 to
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: win $ 14K. Yeah, that's brutal if it came down to
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: the last result. Do it. Play stuff on Splash. I
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: don't know how many free credits you have, but yeah.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: Splash is some good stuff. Yeah. Next game up is
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: my last play of the day. I don't know about
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: this one, man. This is one of the patented toed
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: unders here. No actual patent on it because IP is
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: faking gay, but we're taking Cubs-Milwaukee under 7.5 in this one.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: I think the pitching matchup Should be able to get
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: this done here, although I know yesterday went into extra innings.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: It only went one extra inning, though, and the pitchers
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: that were being used in the game are not really
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: the best pitchers here. So I know McGill did actually
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: come in in the game yesterday, though. He is the
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: closer for Milwaukee, and he pitched the last two days,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 4: so he's not going to be available. But I'm going
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: to trust Milwaukee's bullpen anyway. especially given this is September
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: call-up time. So you have extra guys in the bullpen here.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 4: So Milwaukee's a good bullpen. They did use five guys
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: out of the bullpen, but they only used Ashby for
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: one pitch. Not that I love him, but he might
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 4: be available today. The Cubs used five relief pitchers, but again,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: it is call-up time, and I don't think they used,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: some of their better relievers did not get used. So
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: I'm still going to back the full game here, especially
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: because we get the under seven and a half. And
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 4: you know me, I don't like the first five three
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 4: and a halves. I hate them. so unless you can
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: find a four on it, which I guess I can look,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: but I don't think so. I'm just going to go
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: full game on this. What I want is that I
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: want the starters to get us deep into this game here,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: and we get the hook on the seven. Seven is
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: the key number here, so that's what we're going to
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: do here. Milwaukee is a good bullpen generally. They're ranked
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: number eight, but they're a top five bullpen here pretty easily,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: and the Cubs are not that bad. They're number 15,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: although I know that four ERA is a little bit ugly,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: but they're not a horrible bullpen. Yes, these offenses are good.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: The Cubs are number one. Milwaukee's tied in fourth with
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 4: the Rockies. But Milwaukee and the Rockies. Milwaukee-Rocky. But you
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: know me. I like pitching to defeat hitting, and that's
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: what I think we're going to get here. What we've
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: seen in this series so far, both games have gone
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: under this total so far. Milwaukee's won four to three
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: both games so far, which, yes, also means you might
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: want to look towards the Cubs in this game. I mean, Milwaukee... Yeah,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: they're fighting for the number one spot in the NL,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: but I mean, they're nine games up on the Cubs now,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: so you got to think at some point Milwaukee's going
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: to kind of overlook the Cubs, even though it seems
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: like they have the Cubs number here. Cubs are nine
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: games back, man. Cubs probably going to be a little
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: bit more motivated here in this one. However, as far
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: as the side, I think Milwaukee's got the better pitching here,
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: so I'm not going to be playing the side in
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 4: this one. But yeah, the Cubs need to be a
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: little bit more motivated, especially because they're They're playing for
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: wild-card positioning at this point, although the Cubs are almost
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: definitely making the wild-card anyway. Kevin Gaussman is pitching for
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: the Cubs. He was not having a great season this year,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: although he's been pretty good in recent seasons. He's not
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: that old yet. Toronto got rid of him, and the
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: Cubs picked him up. It was a trade, I think. 4.38 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: His whip does indicate that maybe his ERA should be
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: slightly lower than it is. Hasn't been that good on
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: the road, though. 4.95 road ERA. His walk number's been
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: bad on the road. His control gets a little bit
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: questionable on the road. Cause his opponent batting average is
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: actually better on the road, but he was good in
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: his last start against this Milwaukee team. And I think
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: he could do it again. Now, a lot of times
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: I'll say, well, when a pitcher just faced this lineup,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: they won't do as well the next time. Cause the
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: lineup's now familiar with them, but these pitchers are already
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: familiar to these hitters. So I don't think it's going
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: to change. I just think that both pitchers have a
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: good match up here. Gaussman was really good in that start.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: It wound up being a two one game and Gaussman
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: won the game. Um, His hit rate is not that good, though.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: It's around 1 per inning, but he doesn't really walk
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: that many guys. His strikeout rate is pretty good. So
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: his strikeout walk ratio is going to be pretty good.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 4: It's 3.8, but it's gone up with the Cubs. 4.8
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 4: with the Cubs. So he is pitching better with the
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: Cubs to some extent. And his strikeout per nine has
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: gone up with the Cubs as well. 9.1 on the season.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: That's not bad. And, of course, you know what I
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: was alluding to is numbers against Milwaukee are quite good.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: They have a huge sample size against them, 134 at bat. So, again,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: one extra outing where they saw him, I don't think
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 4: it's going to change the fact that they have a
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: huge sample size against them. He has a 44-8 strikeout
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: walk ratio against them, a 187 average against, and 531 OPS.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 4: Those are really good numbers. So I think Gaussman should
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 4: continue to pitch well here. And on the other side,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: you know I like Logan Henderson. And I think both
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: pitchers are still kind of flying under the radar here.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: Henderson has been awesome. 2.480 or a. 79 whip. That's
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 4: like Jacob Mizurowski. Whip shit. Like, this guy is good,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 4: and nobody's really talking about it. His opponent batting average
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: is extremely low, both home and away, in the 170s. 2.08
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: home ERA. This is some good shit, and he was
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: really good also in that 2-1 game where he dueled
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: Gaussman and wound up taking the loss in the game,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: although he was really good in the game. Both pitchers
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: were awesome. They both had really good strikeout, good command
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: numbers in that one. And Henderson's just been good all season.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 4: He's allowed three or fewer runs in every single start.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is unbelievably low. His walk rate is
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: really low as well. His strikeout rate is high. Milwaukee's
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: got something with Henderson, man. These numbers are really, really good. 6.6
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. That's pretty much elite. 10 strikeout per
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: nine is very good as well. And his numbers against
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: the Cubs, I mean, obviously, you know they're going to
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 4: be good. Yeah, they are. It's not a big sample,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: 26 at-bats, but he's held them to a 154 average,
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: 462 OPS, 8-0 strikeout walk ratio. I don't have much
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: else to say about it, but everybody in their lineup
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: has at least faced him before. Although, yeah, the Cubs
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: were a little bit unfamiliar with him going into that
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: last game. I don't think that was the first time
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: they faced him, though. But Henderson is just so good.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to matter that much. I
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: like the under here. That's going to be the play.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: Let me see. Money seems to be strongly indicating that way.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: 70% of the tickets are on the over. 90% of
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: the cash on the under. Seven and a half is
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: the number. I say we do it. We're getting the
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: market agreement pretty strong, I think, on all three of
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: my plays here. So at least, well, the other one's
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: a full game versus a first five, but I still
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 4: say we do it. Let's do it, man. And actually,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: hold on. Let me look because it looks like St.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 4: Louis actually is at a cheaper price right now. Let
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 4: me take a look here real quick. I want to
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: look to see if we can get St. Louis at
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: a cheaper price right now. I'm just curious. First five, no,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: it looks like it's pretty much the same, so whatever.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: The full game is slightly cheaper, though, because the oddsmakers
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: know their bullpen sucks. All right, Pittsburgh and the White Sox.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: I don't really have a whole lot going on with
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 4: this game here. White Sox lost 9-3 yesterday. The White
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 4: Sox probably have more motivation because they're trying to maintain
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: their lead in the AL Central here. Pittsburgh is kind
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: of done for the season at this point, so maybe
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: more motivation on the White Sox side. They did just
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: lose yesterday at home, so that might motivate the White
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: Sox a little more. White Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: I think they have the better bullpen, but Pittsburgh is
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: more rested. Pittsburgh only used two yesterday. Pittsburgh, hold on.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 4: White Sox number 14 in bullpen, not bad. Pittsburgh is
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: number 19, but the rest might help them a little
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: bit here, but I think still the White Sox are
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen, though. Pittsburgh is the better offense. They're
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: ranked sixth high with Tampa Bay, but they've been not
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: so good recently. Although generally, they're pretty good, but they're
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: better at home, and I think they're on the road here.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: The White Sox are number 10 in offense. They've been
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: decent offensively. Lake Bashar, however the hell you pronounce this
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: guy's name, I still can't get over this guy's look, man.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: The hair is crazy. He's pitching for Pittsburgh. He's basically
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: a bullpen arm. This is pretty much a bullpen game
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 4: for Pittsburgh here as far as I can tell. His
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: numbers are good, but I don't really know if we
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: need to go into them that much. He's only going
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: to go like two to three innings here probably. His
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: numbers are pretty good against the White Sox, but it's
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: a small sample. I'm not going to put much weight
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: into this. It's a bullpen game for Pittsburgh here. The
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: White Sox have an actual starter pitching, which is Davis Martin.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: He was good for a large chunk of the season,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: but he's definitely fallen off recently. He's not been good recently.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: He's got a 4.13 ERA. 1.32 whip is not that good.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: He's been good at home, though. 3.2 home ERA. 232
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: opponent batting average at home. Did pitch well last time
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: out against Houston. So they actually, I think he might
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: have been injured, and it looks like the Injury stint
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: helped him because he came back and he shut out
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: Houston for five and two-thirds. So he did pitch well
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: last time against Houston, although he got no run support
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: and they still wound up losing the game. But he
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: pitched a lot better in that game than he was
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: pitching before he got injured. So what Martin are we
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: going to get here? Is that a fluke and is
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: he still fading or is he actually going to be
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: in better form now? It's hard to figure that out.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: His hit rate's not good. It's over one per inning.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 4: His walk rate's fine. His strikeout rate is okay. He's
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: got a 2.9 strikeout walk ratio. That's all right. 7.9
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: strikeout per nine is not really that good. His numbers
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: against Pittsburgh are basically nonexistent. Mangum is the only hitter
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: who's seen him, and he's 0 for 2. No strikeouts,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: no walks. So Martin is unfamiliar to Pittsburgh here. So
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 4: what the hell do we do with this game? I mean, obviously,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: I'm not playing it. On the surface, it looks like
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: it could be an over, but the money's kind of
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: indicating towards the under here. I don't like bullpen games,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: and I thought Martin was kind of fading, but it
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: looks like Martin might be able to pitch well again.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: Maybe that injury stint helped him out, so maybe the
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: under could actually be worth a call here, and these
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: bullpens aren't really that bad. The money's indicating that way.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: 75% of tickets, 65% of the cash on the over,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: so it's a public over with less of the money
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: on it. Eight and a half is the total. Maybe
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: the under does actually make some sense here, and the
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: money's coming in on Pittsburgh. I would not agree with that.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: 69% of the tickets are on the White Sox. 84%
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Pittsburgh, though. White Sox have gone
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: down from minus 150 to minus 130-something. I think I
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: would have to lean to the White Sox here. They
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: have the actual starter on the mound. I think they're
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: the more motivated team and probably the better bullpen, too.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: So I think I slightly lean White Sox in that one.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: It's a tough call in that game, though. And then
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati and the Dodgers is the last game here. I mean,
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: on the surface, this looks like a pretty big mismatch
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: in favor of L.A. L.A. has won both games in
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: the series, but that might mean that L.A. doesn't take
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati seriously here. L.A. coming up next, they've got to
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: play Miami. I don't know if that's really that big
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: of a deal, though. but I like to lean towards
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: teams trying to avoid the sweep. However, in this pitching matchup,
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to do that. Yeah, this game is
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 4: just going to be a no play for me. The
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: Dodgers used two relief pitchers yesterday. They also have the
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: better bullpen over Cincinnati. Cincinnati used three. The Dodgers are
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: ranked 10th in bullpen. Cincinnati is not good. They're 25th.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are also way better offensively. They're number two. Cincinnati
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 4: is number 22, tied with Arizona, actually. Although I think
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: Arizona is the better offense. They're definitely doing better recently.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: Rhett louder though, is pitching for Cincinnati. I mean, do
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: you really want to back this guy? 5.43 ERA 1.49 whip.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: I don't want to back him. He's been really bad
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: on the road. 6.79 road ERA, even though his home
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 4: stadium is a hitter friendly stadium, him and Brady singer,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: a man for whatever reason, they both pitch better at
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: home than on the road. Um, Rhett louder at home.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: Wasn't even good in his last start against Milwaukee. He's
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: not in good form right now. Um, Yeah. I mean,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: he's been mediocre at best over his recent starts, although
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: his team won a lot of his games recently, but
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 4: he's not a good pitcher. His hit rates way too high.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is not great. His strikeout rate is low.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: There's not a lot to like here. 1.9 strikeout walk
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: ratio is really miserable. Seven strikeup per nine is not
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: very good either. Dodgers have never seen him. Is that
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: going to be enough? Like, is the unfamiliarity going to
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: be enough that he's actually going to pitch well here?
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: I kind of doubt it. Um, I don't want to
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: back him, and he's going up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: is way better than he is. 2.67 ERA,. 9 whip
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 4: from him. Yamamoto's not quite as good at home, though. 3.28
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: home ERA, but whatever. I mean, he's still a very
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: good pitcher. Gave up four runs last time out against St. Louis,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: but he kind of got unlucky. There were some untimely
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: home runs that came against him in that one. Had
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: good command numbers there. Didn't really put that many guys
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: on base, so he's not really pitching poorly here. He's
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: pitching well, I would say. He had a sub-2 ERA
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: in the month of August. Pitched really well in August.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low hit rate, low walk rate.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is pretty good. 4.2 strikeout walk ratio is good. 8.8
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 4: strikeout per nine. His strikeout per nine, as I pointed out,
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 4: has gone down this year, but he is still pitching
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: really effectively anyway, and he's been good against Cincinnati as well.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: They have 43 at-bats against him. They only have two
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 4: extra base hits, which are doubles from Friedel and Suarez.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: 18-4 strikeout walk ratio, 163 average allowed, 443 OPS, so
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: I think Yamamoto should pitch well here. The Dodgers should
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: win this game, but They're almost minus 300. I mean,
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: you cannot lay a money line like that in baseball.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: 90% of the tickets, 92% of the cash on L.A.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, baseball games are just too close. Public is
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: on L.A. It looks like maybe the real money is
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 4: kind of on L.A. too. There's a strong market read
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: on the over in this game, over 8.5. I don't
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: know about that. I think if you think the Dodgers
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: are going to win and you like the over, I mean,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: obviously one thing you could do is play the Dodgers
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: to go over their team total, but you're going to
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 4: need them to probably score 6 in the game if
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: you're going to do that. Maybe they could, but also
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: if you do that, you're taking Yamamoto out of the equation.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't want to do that, but you can't lay
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: like a minus two or whatever run line with the
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: Dodgers here either, though. So it's like the price just
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 4: makes this game totally unplayable, and that's just how it is, man. So, yeah,
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: that game is a pass for me. All right, and
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 4: then we have NFL. I almost got rid of it.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: I can get rid of the MLB tabs, though. Actually,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: I should go to the NFL schedule. NFL starts on
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: a Wednesday, man. What's up with that? Um, yeah. So
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: the Thursday night game is going to be an Australia
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 4: Netflix game. We do not have an Amazon prime Thursday
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: night game until next week. We have an NBC game tonight,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: which is the Superbowl rematch. So what the tradition is
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: now is that the Superbowl winner gets to host the
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: opening game of the season. It's usually the Thursday Amazon
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: prime game. And I was really good with the spread
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 4: in those games last year. I think I was, I
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: was three and oh, and the actual plays I gave out, um,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 4: which are all spread plays, of course, so I don't
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: really do totals, on the Thursday night games last year.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: But I think my picks, I think I only got
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: one or two wrong on the entire season in Thursday games.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: But this is not a Thursday game. So Mr. Thursday night,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: I might have to appear tomorrow to figure out this
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 4: San Francisco Rams game. But tonight is a Super Bowl rematch.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 4: So Seattle is hosting the game, but it is going
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 4: to be New England at Seattle. Now, you know, I
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: don't exactly love East Coast teams going out west to
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: play a game at night. It's going to be later
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: on their biological clock. But I think with week one,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: it's easier to do it because you could travel earlier.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: I don't know if New England actually did that, but
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: who knows? Now, one interesting thing is that the line
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: here is Seattle 3-3.5. And it's like, well, what's the
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: deal with that? Because if you remember... Seattle was like
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: a four and a half point favorite in the Super Bowl,
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 4: and that was on a neutral site in San Francisco.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: So why would Seattle only be a three point favorite
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: here now at home after that? I mean, it almost
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 4: looks too easy to play Seattle, but it looks like
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: the money is coming in on Seattle here. But then again,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: I was thinking that because Seattle beat New England in
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: the Super Bowl, and they covered, and everybody saw that,
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: it was a 29-13 win. Although what I will say
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: is that game was 9-0 at halftime, though. So Seattle
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 4: pulled away in the second half, and it was kind
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: of on New England mistakes. But whatever. I mean, we
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 4: lost my play on New England in that game. The
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: props that I had did okay in the game. But yeah,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is just confusing me because you think
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: that after that game and now that Seattle's at home,
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: you would kind of think this game would be about five,
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: five and a half here, even though there were some
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 4: personnel changes this year. But it is very interesting, the
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: numbers at three. I think the Osmakers are kind of
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: telling you that Seattle has kind of maybe gotten a
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: little bit worse this year. I mean, they've lost some
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: of their defensive players they had last year. They lost
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 4: Kenneth Walker, who was the Super Bowl MVP. He's on
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs now. So Seattle's rushing attack. Might not be
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: as good in this game. Charbonnet, I think, is hurt
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 4: right now, too. So I think Seattle is going to
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 4: be very heavy with their rookie running back, Price, I
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 4: think is his name. And I think he was out
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: of Notre Dame, I want to say. And I could
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: be wrong about that. Correct me if I'm wrong. And
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 4: then they also have Helani, who was one of my
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: props that lost in the Super Bowl last year. He
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: caught one pass, and we needed him to get two.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 4: It's going to be heavy, heavy usage of Helani and
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 4: Price in this game. And I don't know if I
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: love that for Seattle's offense, to be honest. And I
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 4: do think both of these teams overperformed last year. I'm
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 4: not going to give out a play in this game.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: It's interesting because, of course, there is the revenge angle.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 4: You know, like, will Seattle not take New England as
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 4: seriously here? And will New England get a little bit
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: extra motivated? Because, of course, you know, Seattle's going to
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: have their ring ceremony. That's the way that this works.
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: The Super Bowl team... First game, they have their ring ceremony.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: And I did fade, what was it, the Eagles, I think,
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: last year. I think I faded them in the first
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 4: game with Dallas, although that power outage or whatever it was.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on with all these power outages.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 4: The one at Florida State the other day. But the
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: power outage, I think, helped. Or maybe, no, it was
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: a lightning delay. Wait, was it? I don't remember what
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: it was. Whatever it was, though, that big delay in
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: the game, I think, helped us with that Dallas play
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: because no more scoring happened, but whatever. Revenge could be
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: an angle. New England could get pissed that Seattle's doing
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 4: the ring ceremony. New England was the team that lost
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: to them. And I used that angle in the WNBA
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: earlier this year, if you remember, with fading the Aces
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: in their first game against the team that they... I
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: believe it was against the team they beat in the finals,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: which was Phoenix. And Phoenix beat them by 30-something points
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: in that game. So we got that one right. Do
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 4: I want the same angle here? I kind of don't.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to play this game, but... There is
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 4: the revenge angle for New England here. I think I
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 4: might lean that way, though, lean towards New England in
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: this one because of the revenge angle, because to me
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 4: it looks too easy to play Seattle, but for some
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: reason 58% of the tickets are on New England. That
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: surprises me. Even though New England looked good last year
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: and there is some hype around them, you would think
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: that the public would still be leaning towards the team
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: that beat them in the Super Bowl. 54% of the
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: cash on Seattle right now. Yeah, I don't know, man.
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 4: New England, I think, has improved a little bit this year, actually.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 4: Their offense, they got A.J. Brown, Romeo Daubs, now Dobbs,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: however you pronounce his name, the dude that wears the
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 4: concussion helmet during actual games. So New England has some
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 4: more weapons for Drake May to throw to. I'm not
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: sold on New England's defense, really, though. They did finally
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 4: sign Christian Gonzalez, so they finally got that out of
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 4: the way because a lot of times these contract holdouts,
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 4: they affect the team's mental state, but they got that done.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: So they know that Gonzalez will be there. He's one
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: of the best secondary players in the NFL, and he's
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 4: now the highest paid. So now that that's done and
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 4: out of the way, that distraction's kind of gone. And
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: I don't know if the Vrabel affair distraction is really
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 4: going to be a thing here. I don't know. There
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: are a lot of things to consider in this game, really.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: I think maybe the under... Could be a play in
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: this game if we're going to be looking at this game,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: although I think the under might be correlated with New
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 4: England because underdogs usually are correlated with the under because
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: if it's fewer points scored in the game, the underdog's
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 4: going to have a better chance to cover. The total's
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: not too high. It's in the mid-40s, 44.5. It dropped
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: slightly from 45, which I don't think it hasn't really
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: gone through any key number here. 57% of tickets on
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: the over, 53% of the cash on the over. Now
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: the Super Bowl did land under this total, I believe.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 4: It was 29 to 13, I think is what I said, right?
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 4: So it landed 42 is my math right there. So
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: it did land under this, but I think the under
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 4: makes some sense here. Like just generally the first game
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: of the season, a lot of times offenses start slow,
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: but with Seattle not really having a good rushing attack,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: their offense might become one-dimensional, right? They're going to be
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 4: forced to be throwing the ball a lot, and maybe
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 4: that's not great. And they might become a little bit
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: more predictable. And Darnold does still make some mistakes. He
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 4: threw a lot of interceptions last year still. So, yeah,
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: there is that component to this. And New England, you know,
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 4: I don't know about their offense potentially starting slow, but
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 4: just generally I think offense is kind of doing maybe–
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 4: They got to kind of still gain the chemistry with
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: those new receivers and whatever. I don't know. I don't
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: have a good feel for this game, but I'm going
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 4: to slightly lean New England plus the points, at least
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: for now. But I don't even know what I'm going
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: to pick in my– because I have an ESPN pick-em
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: pool where I have to pick every single game, and
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 4: I typically do quite well in that. And I have
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 4: my pick five entry. I don't think this game is
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: going to make my pick five, though. But week one
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: is very, very difficult. So I don't have that many
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: games that I really love in week one. So I
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 4: don't know, man. We'll see, but yeah, I'm going to
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: pick five on Splash. Like I said, I won, I think,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: about a grand in the one last year. I landed
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: in the money in the one I was in last year,
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 4: but anyway, yeah, that's going to do it. I think
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 4: I lean New England plus the points and under in
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: this game, at least for now, but it's not a
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 4: game that I love by any means. All right, man,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 4: that's going to do it. The plays today are St.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 4: Louis Cardinals' first five money line, all baseball today. We're
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: going over nine in Rockies, Yankees. I think the pitching
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: is Not great in that one. And then I think
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 4: the pitching is great in Cubs Milwaukee. and we're going
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: under in that one those are my three plays let's
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 4: start turning this around man we had a winning day
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: yesterday so let's get some new momentum off of that
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: doesn't work like uh the actual sports games do but
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 4: let's get some wins that's gonna do it I got
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: a headache here too gotta deal with that I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tone on Twitter. Learn to Tone on Instagram. Like,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here. And you'll get notified when
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: I go live. Football is in full swing now, man.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: So we're going to have a lot more football content.
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 4: It's going to be Friday night, Saturday night, like I
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 4: used to, I think, where I do the night before
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: for college football and for NFL. College football takes a
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 4: lot out of me, though. We'll see. I'm going to
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 4: have headaches all the time due to lack of sleep
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: because of it. But, yes, subscribe. You'll get notified when
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: I go live. It's usually late-night, degenerate-hour stuff. We're on audio.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: The audio numbers have been doing pretty well recently, so
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: I like that. Let's keep that trending, man, in the
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: right direction. On Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. What else? Covered in you,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: because my ukulele channel on YouTube, you can check that out.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: I haven't really done much content there recently, though. Patreon.com
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 4: slash LearnToToad. But not keeping up with much there, either,
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 4: so I apologize. Loser cast every Tuesday, although I was
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: absent last night. Although, if they read my voicemail, if
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: you guys recognized that it was me, hopefully they did,
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: and hopefully they used my loser pick. I haven't watched
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: the show, but maybe I'll go back and watch it
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 4: and support the losers. And then, what else? New York
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: Giants G-Spot podcast. We've got to discuss that and figure
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 4: out what we're doing because they're playing on Sunday, but
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: that's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold on
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: Let me pull you out That bad luck fights hard
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: Stay with me now Hold on, hold on You're still
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: here now guitar solo