Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/25/26: Bessent Threatens Blowing Up Global Finance, Canada Trade War Begins, SCOTUS Mail In Decision

Transcript

8/25/26: Bessent Threatens Blowing Up Global Finance, Canada Trade War Begins, SCOTUS Mail In Decision · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 1: Hi, good morning, and welcome to brain Points. We have
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: an amazing show today, don't.
• 0:36
  Speaker 4: We Oh it's so good. Couldn't be better.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: It is not given people what they want, No, but.
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: You you have a bro shut them on us. That's
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: something I'll look for for sure.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: We do have that.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: We have a kind of depressing show. I think today
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: pretty usual.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: But well, Scott Bessant declared his d day yesterday afternoon.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We're going to walk through what he said. He's going
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: he might do, but he doesn't want to do. He's
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: going to hurt him more than it hurts the rest
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: of the world. Please don't make him blow up the
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: financial system. It's basically a direct quote Trump doubling down
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: on his trade war with Canada for some reason. We're
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: going to try to figure out why he's doing that.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: The auto workers don't want it, The auto executives don't
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: want it. Canada doesn't want it. We don't want it.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Nobody wants it, doesn't want it. Collins definitely doesn't want it. Yeah,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Troy Jackson might be the only person benefiting from this
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: trade war that Trump is launching with Canada for absolutely
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: no reason. Supreme Court came in and stayed a ruling
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: that's allowing Trump to go forward with his monkeying with
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: mail in voting. We'll talk about the details of that ruling.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: There's a little bit more to it then appears from
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: the headline. Abdula Alsayad went on the Jesse Waters program,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: which was again, the entire thing was kind of amusing
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: all the way through. We'll talk about the implications of that.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: He also very delicately chucked a soundpiker under the bus
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: after Mike Rogers near a Tanden and others who seem
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: to oppose him. Mike Rogers certainly opposes him. The centrist
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Democrats only kind of heart pretending to support Abdulla said,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: they circulated this deceptively edited clip and then condemned him
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: for what was said in that disceptly oded clip. We'll
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: talk about that. What else we got, We got the
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: South Carol. You're going to tell us about the South
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Carolina race, which is getting very interesting.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: Well, and actually you've tracked this solar lobbying issue for
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: a while, but people don't realize what's happened under the
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: surface in some of these races. So we covered it
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: when Andy Ogle's lost, We covered a bit when Chip
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: Roy lost. But there's this interesting solar lobbying effort to
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: quietly oust people who fought against the Biden solar subsidies
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: with the one big beautiful bill, and they're coming for it.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: Came for Andy Ogle's trip or another coming for Ralph
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: Norman in the South Carolina runoff. He has a chance
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: though to beat Darley and Graham. We'll see that's the day.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: But we have some interesting details that a lot of
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: people weren't talking about.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And finally, Ryan with Sunshine on this on what's been
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: unfolding in the.
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: Dark Sunshine on the sunshine, right, But we also have
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: a guest.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, we're going to talk to uh Jamie Elcito, who
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: was running in Massachusetts sixth District of fascinating dynamic on folding.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: There where some uh she actually, I don't I don't
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: want to tease it too. No spoilers, no spoilers on
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: this one. You're you're you're really gonna like this this race.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: It involves some of your favorite characters you've been that
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: you've been following throughout this race, particularly a PAK and
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: organizations that call themselves women's rights organizations that have been
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: colluding with a PAK. We're getting we're gonna get into
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: all of that. You're gonna you're gonna want to.
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: Watch that one, all right. And finally, the free month
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• 4:24
  Speaker 4: a month, Ryan, let's dig into the show the trade. Well,
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: let's start with Iran, because Scott Betson formally rolled out
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: what Economic Dday is going to look like. We discussed
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: yesterday his upbed in the Financial Times threatening Economic Dday.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: He did a press conference at the Treasury Department yesterday
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: where he gave us a little bit more information on
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: what Economic Dday would look like for countries that are
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: doing any trade with Iran. Let's listen to a one.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: Beginning today, the actions of Treasury and other agencies will
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: tighten the noose and block every potential source of revenue
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: that funds the IO er GC and the evil Iranian regime.
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: We are enforcing a zero leakage approach. There will be
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: no minimal breathing space for the regime to rebuild this
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: capacity to inflict terror against America and the world. The
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: final refuge of this regime is a mistaken conclusion of
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: nations that still finance the Iranian threat in the hopes
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: of evading it. It is no longer acceptable to operate
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: in the Great spaces of this conflict. Countries cannot claim
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: they are blind to enabling this activity.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: The top trading partners with iron are China, Ua, Turkey, Iraq, Youu, India, Pakistan,
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: Russian Federation and Oman, according to CNBC. So as you
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: hear Scott Bessant line all of it or outline all
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: of this, keep that in mind. Let's not listen to
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: a two. He got a question from a journalist about
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: China in particular. Here's how Besnt responded.
• 5:55
  Speaker 6: One of the most powerful tools you have at your
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: disposal is the ability to impose secondary sanctions on banks
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: and financial institutions that facilitate.
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: Transactions for Iran.
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: Chinese banks have often been Talkeet talked about being targeted,
• 6:14
  Speaker 6: but we don't see any any of those institutions targeted here.
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: Is that something that is coming in this campaign or
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: is the very delicate trade truce with China something that
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: could prohibit you from going that far and taking that
• 6:32
  Speaker 6: very big step.
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: We want to make clear to here today that no
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: one is above the reach of US sanctions, that if
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: they facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: turns Iranian oil into money into repression, they will be targeted.
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: We find that the best way to engage with countries
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: is through quiet diplomacy, and we are level setting with
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: every country to tell them our expectations. We know who
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: they are, They know who they are, so when the
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: hammer of US Treasury actions falls upon them, they will
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: have no one to blame but themselves.
• 7:19
  Speaker 7: What'd you make of that response, Ryan, Yes, I mean
• 7:23
  Speaker 7: he is very he is very clearly threatening to sanction China,
• 7:29
  Speaker 7: basically the countries that you just listed, Like, he's threatening
• 7:32
  Speaker 7: to sanction China, all of our allies in the Gulf, India, Pakistan.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: And then he says, I don't want to blow up
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Why would I want to blow up the global economy? Yeah?
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Like what, No, why haven't you done it already? Why
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: would I want to? So he's already admitted that if
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: he executes on his plan, it will blow up the
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: global economy. At another point, he said he was very
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: very close to sanctioning an entire major financial institution for
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: moving Iranian money.
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: He said, what to expect it by the end of
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: the week.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe he's the Trumpian, Yeah, like, might it might happen
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: by the end of the week. It's I'm really close
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: to doing it a major financial institution, like say Layman Brothers.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: The reason that these institutions are structural is that they
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: have there are counterparties that have all of their trades
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: that are closing there or moving through there or there,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: or their collateral is there, and so everybody that if
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: you seize that up and everybody runs out or it's
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: seized up and people can't get access to whatever their
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: assets are that are in there, then all the counterparties
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that are all spread around it are also then at risk.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: And then anybody who's a counterparty to anybody around there.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: That's why when Layman went down, it's spread a financial
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: crisis through the entire world. So Bessin is saying that
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: he's considering doing that, he also says if he does
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the things he's saying he's going to do, it's going
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: to blow up the global financial system. Therefore he's not
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: going to do that right right, because as he said,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: why would I want to do that? You wouldn't want
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: to do that. Therefore he has put no time and
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: no specifics on who and what yep. So why why
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: does anybody believe and maybe we can put up this
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: next element, why would anybody believe that he's actually going
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: to do anything. So put up a three. This is
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Mohammed Galibaf, the top Iranian negotiators, speaks of parliament. Americans
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: know that no one buys their bomb best. The United
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: States is not in an economic position to further restrict
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: its relations with other countries. Iran's trading partners, both in
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: the media and through messages sent to US, have made
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: clear that they don't take these statements into account anywhere
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: because if he would follow through on his threat, he'd
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: destroy himself. So what did you make of it?
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: Well, here's what it's really all about. So Doug Collins,
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: we were talking about this yesterday. But Doug Collins then
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: goes on Newsmax He's cabinet secretary is via secretary, and
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: I think really gives a game away. This is what
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: it's all about. We were speculating, and I think it's
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: pretty obvious speculation. But he essentially, without attempting to reveal
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: what's happening, kind of revealed what's happening. Let's rule A four.
• 10:30
  Speaker 8: But the biggest issue is you just saw what we
• 10:32
  Speaker 8: just just heard. The Iranians are reacting to this and
• 10:36
  Speaker 8: very okay. Oh, so they are understanding we've finally gotten
• 10:39
  Speaker 8: to the real heart of the matter. We've already beat
• 10:41
  Speaker 8: them down with the best military in the world. Now
• 10:43
  Speaker 8: it's time to take their money and go from there.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: We've already beat them militarily, so now it's time to
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: take their money. And Ryan, this is what we were
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: discussing yesterday, and I think the fact that he went
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: on TV and said that again just gives the game away.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: We have exhausted military options, he says. He framed it
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: as we have defeated them militarily, but we've exhausted the
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: military options that we are willing to use.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Well, they're not playing fair because we beat them, but
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: they just won't admit it.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: They won't admit it. Yeah, which is Yeah, it's it's.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Deeply unfair, deeply unfair. Game's over scoreboard. We won. They're
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: still out there playing.
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, amazing, how that works.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: You can't do that? Step in, Yeah, give us your money.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: Someone should step in. But that's what it's really all about,
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: is that they have military options. The military options that
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: remain involve escalation, escalation trap and if they were.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: To pursue them on tomorrow.
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it was on tomorrow. I think you
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: do have rubber pape on escalation paper will be on
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: tomorrow escalation pay. But that is really what this is
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: all about. They're trying desperately to avoid the escalation trap
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: and to squeeze run. One other thing that Besson said,
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: let's actually jump here to a six because this underscores
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: what you heard from Doug Collins. This is another line
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: that Beston delivered from Treasury yesterday to.
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: The ordinary soldiers supporting this regime is more and more
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: of your page stop or supposedly just delayed. Ask whether
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: your commanders are leading your country to triumph or to ruin.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: And recall that the Berlin Wall fell when ordinary soldiers
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: decided not to shoot at their own people.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: Okay, lay down your arms, overthrow the government, and we
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: can get back.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: To business as usual, Mike as we wont.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what But that's what this is all about.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: Is they're still desperately trying to find some way without
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: escalating militarily, without losing more Americans, and without continuing to
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: expose this crunch in our weapons supply. So now they've
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: turned to this hazy, vague economic threatening that they're rolling
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: out in a really Trumpian way, where it's framed grandly,
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: it's framed like some super cohesive strategy, and it's escalating
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: threats instead of escalating military or escalating real hard financial
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: decisions unless he rolled something out by the end of
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: the way. I mean, we'll see. Even the tariffs we're
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: going to get to in a moment aren't supposed to
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: take place until January first, So they're doing threats to
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: try and bring Iran to the table.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know, and Iran was at the table we
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: broke well. Iran was at the table multiple times over
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the past decade, but they were at the table in
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: February when we launched the war, and then they were
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: at the table again through throughout the MoU in which
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: they agreed to keep the straight open while negotiating the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: remaining pieces. Trump couldn't keep the sixty day truce going
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: just to get through the negotiations. So in February, while
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Iran was at the table, Netnahu made a certain, you know,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: series of promises. We could kill the toll and his
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: top commanders with the Kurds, we would go in and
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: we would spark an uprising. We would we would overthrow
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: the regime greeted as liberators. You know, it would go
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: very quickly, and none of that has Oh, they would
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: not close the Strait of Hormuz, and they would not
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: turn it into a regional war where they attacked our
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: bases throughout the region and our and our allies throughout
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the Gulf. We did kill the Ayahtola and his top commanders.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Everything else for the most part, they you know, has
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: has not happened. So clearly what followed was Trump saying, hey, Scott,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: what can you do, like choke them out? Because I can't.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: I'm like my guy Pete over here. He's done everything
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: he can, but he's got nothing less literally has nothing.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Lest we won, because well we won, Yes, So now
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: you go in and you do the mop up with
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the you choke them out. And Scott has this interesting
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: life history where he, along with George Soros, where he
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: used to work, they broke the back of the British
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: pound with this famous trade. And so he is really
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: approaching this from an interesting perspective. He's not looking at
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the world as kind of run by forces. He's he's
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the force. He's looking at it as run by men
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: and by traders and by trades.
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: And so because he's been one of those, right.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: But the problem is Britain was tinpot economy in the
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: early nineties. That was like propping up its currency in
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: an unsustainable way. And you know, Soros Investment could come
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: in and poke at it with their mite, with their
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a big short and break it because they were able
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: to hold out longer then the central bank was able
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: to prop it up. Now, now what he thinks he
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: can do is he can take this forty trillion dollars
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: of debt that we have circulating and which which wants
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: to push yields up because the world is like, we
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: don't really trust the leadership of this country, and I
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: can't imagine why they didn't. The guy, the guy looked
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: really like he wasn't sweating and gentry yesterday and then
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: comic coal like that was that was a confidence inspiring
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: no doubt. Yet for some reason others are not receiving
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: it with the same level of confidence at all. So
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: they're at they're demanding a higher premium in order to
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: fund our debt. And so he's thinking, I can go
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: in and trade. I've got this four billion dollars and
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: that he flushed down the toilet last week. Now he's
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: identified this trillion dollar bucket of cash that he is
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: going to try to use to try to push down
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: the tail end of the bonds because he thinks he
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: can do that. He thinks that trades and men can
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: override the structural forces at work. But he's comparing nineteen
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: ninety two Britain to twenty twenty six United States, and
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: that to me is like insane, Like those are completely
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: different things that we're talking about. Here.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: We're going to skip ahead here again. I want to
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: put a eight up on the screen. So this is
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: remarkable criticism. I'm quoting Greg Ipp, who's chief economics commentator
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: for the Wall Street Journal. Remarkable criticism of Treasure Treasury
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: Secretary Scott Bessett by his former boss Nan Druckenmiller, especially
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: this quote. Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price,
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve,
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: and the operations must grow to survive the tests. Now
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: skip ahead to the next element. This is Charles Gasparino
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: over at Fox Business who said, Scoop Bessett will do
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: whatever it takes to quote put the fear of God
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: into the bond vigilantes shorting the long end of the
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: curve in an attempt to drive the ten year yield
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: to five percent. Wall Street executives with direct knowledge of
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: his thinking say that would include buybacks, selling short term debt,
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: possible illumination of long dated bonds like the twenty year,
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: et cetera. It's a short term solution to keep yields
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: from strowing further strangling growth as the midterms approach, they say,
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: And it doesn't address the real problem that is now
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: the forty trillion dollar level and competition for capital from
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: the AI buildout. So your analysis is basically echoed, I
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: think by people within Bessent world.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's so Gasprito is basically saying that what I
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: just said, it seems to be his mindset actually is
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: his mindset.
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: That he's conveying a Wall Street executives Apparently.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: He's that he thinks he has the ability to go
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: in and threaten traders who who want to get on
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: the wrong side of the trades that he's going to
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: make them lose their shirts. It's possible that this could
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: work for several weeks, because now you have traders who
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: might if any big traders are going to go in
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: and try to go short.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: What Beson could do is come in and at a
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: well time moment and for an hour cost them a
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: lot of money. He can't he can't structurally change things,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: but he's hoping that he can scare enough people out
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: of the market. But it's it's complete, it's completely it's
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: completely insane.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: As you say, it sounds like it's not a way
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: to run a global economy. It sounds like a public
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: relations effort basically to get through the midterms.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: It yeah, I mean, it's it basically is I mean,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: he's out there saying that he has that he's going
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: to do this for like ninety eight like it's everything
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: he's doing. He's timing it to November like it's it's
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: a complete joke, and it's.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: Not going to work in terms of I mean, it
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: may prevent like massive price hikes in the short term,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: but people are still going to be squeezed, right, And
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: so actually, let's go to a five here. This is
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: the US. You can see the chart here from Bank
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: of America Global, and that's what he's.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Referring to, not having enough you know, economic power.
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, check this out. US now has forty one days
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: of crude oil inventory life. That is the lowest level
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: that we have had in half a century.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Right, And so there's a there's a good analogy here
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: to why Trump isn't restarting the war. He started the
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: war in February with his AMMO you know, full you know,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: full stock, like ready to go, multiple aircraft carriers, the
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: sailors were fresh, their ballistic missile interceptors were basically stocked up.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: They you know, they depleted a bunch in the twelve
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: day War, but.
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: Not nearly stocked up enough they were, but yeah, right,
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: but they.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Were, they were ready to go. They went to war.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Oh and our and our oil inventories were flush, you know,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: not as flush as they could e or should have been,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: but pretty flush. Economy was coming along, the inflation was
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: coming down, like things were, things were good.
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: It literally was.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: They were getting better in February. So he went in
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: with all of that and still lost. So when he
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: went back to Pete, do it again, Pete's like, well,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: we lost already. I'm sure he didn't admit that we
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: did all of this. It didn't work. And now we
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: don't have the same amount of AMMO. So treasury, so
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: let's go to treasure. And now the problem is we've
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: been doing this for forty seven years right now. We've
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: been trying to do it for the last several years
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: maximum pressure, and we were doing that from a position
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: of economic strength. We are now in a position of
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: extraordinary weakness where we are hours away at any given
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: moment from a financial crisis, and we are, as they say,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: forty one days away from basically being out of oil inventories.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: The Panama Canal because of El Nino, has also cut
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the amount of ships that it's that it's enabling to
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: go through the Gulf. Had been producing extra amounts of
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: oil and shipping it to Asia through the Panama Canals
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: for that have gone through the roof, and the number
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: of people that can numberships that can transit has now collapsed.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: They claim they're getting a decent amount through the Strait
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz. If that was true, for some reason, it's
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: not slowing the draw down of our strategic reserves. Like
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: if it was true that we were getting this insane
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: amount of oil through that Axios is claiming that the
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: White House is claiming to Axios, then we wouldn't be
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: drawing from our reserves, but we are. So that's why
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: golly Boff is saying that you can't that we don't
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: have the economic power to do what we're claiming. Before
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: we left Druck and Miller, I did want to highlight
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: this this other quote of his. He said, if the
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: thirty year must trade at five point five percent, too clear,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: that isn't a crisis. It is an invoice. And it's
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: an interesting moment that that is obviously an AI written line.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: I didn't even think about that, but you're right.
• 22:57
  Speaker 9: It sounds like it like Besson's thing was AI slop
• 23:01
  Speaker 9: bessence mentor is now criticizing him with his own AI,
• 23:06
  Speaker 9: which I don't think a slop.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: I think that's a decent line.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: I thought it was pretty good.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Although it also is a crisis. It can be both,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: but they say it isn't a crisis, it is an inwix.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: AI only knows how to do the It's not this,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: it's that kind of writing. But it's an invoice. It's
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: good line. When I read that, I was like, Claude
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: get delivered on this one. This is quality stuff. And
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I bet Drauken Miller was reading. He's like, sounds like AI.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: But pretty snappy line. I'm just gonna have to leave that.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: So this is what we're bringing to bear in this
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: war against Iran is a bunch of AI slop when
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: we're out of am, out of money, and out of oil.
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: And don't forget, our economy is running on people demanding
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: AI slop right and right.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: And it's fascinating that one of the reasons that interest
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: rates are up, which drug Miller alluded to, or maybe
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Gasprino alluded to, is that they are out in the
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: market with many, many billions of dollars of bonds that
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: they are raising, and so that competition is pushing up
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: interest rates for everybody. So you thought you hated AI.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: It's also the reason your car loan is going up. Yeah,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: your mortgage prices are going up. That we're getting a
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: credit contraction in the US. It's having a hard time
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: funding its.
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: Dead, Okay, but Ryan, to be fair, it's not a crisis.
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: It's an invoice.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: It's an invoice.
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: It's an invoice. Keep that in mind before we leave
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: this block. Let's put Secretary Rubio's post these A seven
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: on the screen. He announced that he formally rescinded yesterday
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: serious designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. This action
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: unlocks new potential for serious economic revitalization and progress. The
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: Trump administration continues to advance you as national security to
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: achieve peace, prosperity, and security in the Middle East Rain.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: So think about this in comparison to Cuba. So Syria
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: is run by a former al Qaeda leader, We're fine
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: with that. Like that they're lifted from the States Sponsored
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Terrorism list. Cuba, citing stuff from the nineteen sixties, is
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: on that list. I was talking to at Augustine reporter
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: in Cuba the other day. He said, they're now up
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: to three and a half million people out of roughly
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: ten million people. They're about ten million people on that
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: island because so many have left. Three and a half
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: million don't have running water at this point because of
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: the complete and total blockade of Cuba, and it's august
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Like this is not a time you want to be
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: in Cuba without water. On top of the like the
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: disease that spreads in the summer, which you know, I
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have to like link it back to us, but
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: the diseases that we're breeding on Cuba right now aren't
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: going to stay in Cuba, and so yeah, so congratulations
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to Syria.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: Huge Yeah, not a crisis an invoice. All right, let's
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: move on to the trade war that's heating up. The
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: trade war with Canada continues to heat up, although I
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: will not Trump says his retaliatory tariffs in this case
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: aren't starting until January one. We'll get into that. But
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: Treasury Secretary Scott Besson was asked about this at his
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: Economic d Day over a run press conference yesterday. Here's
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: a bit of how he responded.
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: B One, does the United States and President Trump still
• 26:33
  Speaker 6: want Canada to become a state? He did say that
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: they're getting all the benefits of being a state without.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Being one.
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: I think he would like Canada to come to the
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: table and negotiating good faith. They were offered quite a
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: good deal last week. They chose to reject it. Unfortunately,
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: Prime Minister Carne Carney rose to power on an anti American,
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: anti Trump platform. He was more than twenty points behind,
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: and you know, he seems to have gone back to
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: his old playbook. And I think one has to ask
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: oneself is he trying to benefit himself, the Liberal Party
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: or the Canadian people Because they were offered a very.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: Good job so obviously, as a reminder, I'm reading from
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: BBC here, Trump threatened to hike tariffs on cars and
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: this was a truck's auto parts. That's sort of stuff.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: Twenty five percent to fifty percent increase as of January one.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: So while the talk is getting tougher, there's a huge
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: amount of buffer room. But speaking of tough talk, let's
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: listen to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Kearney yesterday as well.
• 27:40
  Speaker 10: It's not a surprise for us that the US would
• 27:43
  Speaker 10: take some form of reprisal to our response to their
• 27:50
  Speaker 10: unjustified tariff, which was on top of other unjustified tariffs.
• 27:54
  Speaker 10: That's not a surprise. But what message does that send
• 27:58
  Speaker 10: to the workers Michigan, in Ohio and Kentucky and Alabama
• 28:02
  Speaker 10: who rely on Canadian demand were their largest customer for automobiles,
• 28:08
  Speaker 10: more than the European Union, Japan, Korea, many others combined,
• 28:16
  Speaker 10: and the United Kingdom. I can throw them in as well.
• 28:21
  Speaker 10: This is the most successful automotive partnership in history. It's
• 28:25
  Speaker 10: existed for all my life for sixty years. And the
• 28:29
  Speaker 10: President is doing what we not just suspected, but we
• 28:34
  Speaker 10: had confirmed through the terms that they were offering instead
• 28:38
  Speaker 10: of a quick change to the terms in the automobile industry,
• 28:41
  Speaker 10: they were putting on the table terms that gradually would
• 28:44
  Speaker 10: have that impact and we wouldn't accept that. So it's
• 28:47
  Speaker 10: very revealing that this.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: Is where they go for a little bit more spice.
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: Let's turn to Doug Ford, brother of course of JULLI
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: departed Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. He is the Premier of
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: Alberta currently. This is what Doug Ford had to say.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: B three, you sound a little more subdued than you
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: did this morning on the radio and you said Donald
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Trump could kiss your ass. Did the Prime Minister tell
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: you to ask you to tone it.
• 29:12
  Speaker 11: Down a bit?
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: No, he didn't. I'm kind of comment, but he wasn't
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: against that.
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: And I have a lot of real estate on my ass,
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: so he has a lot of room to kiss my ass.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: So I just do a big dude. What can I say?
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: All right, Premiere of Ontario, I'm sorry, so he'll burn up.
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: But that's how Doug Ford responded. Now the US keeps
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: talking about how Canada walked away. This is more from
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: BBC on Friday than when Canadian officials did walk away.
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: BBC says they are claiming the US introduced last minute
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: demands that were quote unacceptable, including a clause limiting which
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: countries Canada could sign trade deals with. Jamison Greer, on
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: the other hand, is saying Canada was introducing last minute changes.
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: He said, quote they wanted more. A bit unclear what
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: actually happened on Friday, but Mark Carney said he was
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: focused on supporting Canadian businesses impacted by the new fifty
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: percent US tariffs after the Friday deadline expired, as well
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: as building infrastructure to diversify Canada's trade, which historically has
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: relied on the US. You know, I actually think a
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: lot of people would say that's a good thing. Canada
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: should build infrastructure internally. The United States should be doing
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: the same, precisely because people's jobs and lives are vulnerable
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: to trade wars that can bubble up exactly like this.
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: But you know, it's to see the back and forth.
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: But realized this twenty five to fifty percent increase isn't
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: happening until January. Ryan, it does feel a bit like
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: what we were talking about with Iran earlier that the
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: Trump administration learned through the Liberation Day. I was going
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: to say fiasco, but the Liberation day adventure, misadventure, choose
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: you an adventure with the word that you want to
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: use in that case. But he learned that he can
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: do so much, He could do so very much with
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: words alone. Because this again, the twenty percent increase doesn't
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: happen to January first.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and the reporting is that it was Howard Lutnick,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Commerce secretary, who who blew up the talks. Like that
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: seems to be what both sides are kind of saying.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: James and Greer is the US trade representative who was
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: supposed to be leading the talks, but there were areas
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: that involved commerce, including the you know, the car is
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: aluminum steel, and Lutnik was directly communicating with Carney by
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: text and by phone and seemed like to go back
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: to your point about like what elements of the deal
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: and who they're allowed to trade with, Like it seems
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: like he insisted on some things that Canada was like no,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: like we're not We're not doing that. And they Trump
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: announced last week we had a deal. Remember, so we
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: got a deal, yep, And it was all all done
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: except for the signing and then so then what is
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Lutnik doing on the phone and texting with with Carney,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Like either way, it's a it's a complete mess. Like
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: like and in the very beginning, if you remember, they
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: didn't want to deal with Lutnik. Yes, like they they
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: have never wanted to deal with I don't know how.
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: Much Trump wants to deal with Lutnick, honestly.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's just kind of a crazy person, like right,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: he just he seems funny. He tells a good story.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: But like I'm sure he's like fun at dinners or whatever.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: But like, what what what what's this guy doing right
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: other than having his firm, Canterfitzgerald break in all the
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: tariff money.
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, like that is incredible, and the crypto money isn't.
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: Canter Fitzgerald also behind the stable coin.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Move he's making. They're making so much money, right, just
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: making absolute incredible amounts of money. They bought up so
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: people understand. Before the Supreme Court ruled that Trump had
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: to give the tariff back money back to the companies,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Canter Fitzgerald, his firm run by his kids, went around
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: buying up for pennies on the dollar the right to
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: get that tariff money back. So that's why you paid
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: more for stuff that came in and was tariffed and
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: then when there were refunds, you didn't get the refund.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Howard Lutnix getting the refund And now he's in there
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: blowing up this Canadian deal. By the way, we already
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: have a USMCA, like the renegotiated n After that, Trump
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: was so proud of like he already did this. What
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: are we doing? Like why did you do these years
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: long negotiations and sign a long term agreement if you
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: just want to do it again. Yeah.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: Susan Collins came out interestingly against I mean, it's not interesting,
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: it's kind of obvious, but came out against this as
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: she's been campaigning across Maine. It was interesting because JD. Vance,
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: I don't think if I'm remembering correctly, Collins didn't go
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: to the Vance rally that he had in Maine and
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: he was defending the administration's trade policy. Collins was opposing it.
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: So that tells you a bit about it how it's
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: playing out in Maine. Ryan, let's put this drop site
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: on this drop site report up on the screen of
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: this drop site comment on the Canadian wildfires. So drop
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: site reporting on x wildfires and maintenance are set to
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: squeeze Canadian oil that US relies on at the worst
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: possible time. US refiners are bracing for dropping supply from Canada,
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: the largest foreign source of crude, at a moment when
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: they can least afford it. Bloomberg reported this weekend. Canada
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: supplies over four million barrels a day, and Midwest refiners,
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: cut off from seaborne imports, lead on it especially hard.
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: How could this play into the next few weeks, few months.
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: We've got four months till that January first implementation on
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: the automobile tariffs.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: But how does that play into this now disaster disaster
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: for the US. Yeah, So the combination of wildfires and
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: maintenance are shutting down many hundreds of thousands of barrels
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: a day from getting into the US.
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: And these are in their oil. This is wildfires that
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: broke out what last week, the last couple of weeks
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: in their oil sands region.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, And so it's hitting as everything else is hitting.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Ukraine's lighting up, all of Russia's oil infrastructure straight over
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: moves crimped, Panama Canal tightened up because of El Nino
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: and this wildfires plus the plus the maintenance where you know,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: is it scheduled maintenance or is it Canada putting some
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: pressure on us, Probably a combination. Yeah, But we're not
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: in a place of strength where we can manage where
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: we can handle a few al Nino and wildfire related crises,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: because we have inflicted eight crises on top of it
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: by our own hand.
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: And I should mention just on the stable coin point.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: Canter Fitzgerald is one of the big investors in tether
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: so that's the the tie on that end. Let's listen
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: to more of Jamison Greer, so he's on CNBC yesterday.
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: Here's what he had to say.
• 36:01
  Speaker 11: So, we don't have any issue proceeding with our trade
• 36:04
  Speaker 11: policy as planned, and I think the market understands that.
• 36:08
  Speaker 11: I think the market knows that at the end of
• 36:09
  Speaker 11: the day, this is five percent of imports from Canada
• 36:12
  Speaker 11: to point zero six percent of our overall consumption in
• 36:16
  Speaker 11: this economy. So there's no possible way it can really
• 36:19
  Speaker 11: affect us well being, right, I mean, we had we've
• 36:23
  Speaker 11: been having great prints on inflation the past couple of months,
• 36:26
  Speaker 11: going down in June and staying flat here, real wages
• 36:29
  Speaker 11: for manufacturing workers going up, so we're on the right trajectory.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: The fundamentals are good.
• 36:33
  Speaker 11: And I don't think this is going to affect anything,
• 36:35
  Speaker 11: and that's why I think the markets are sharking off.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: Well, obviously it affects some states more than nothing.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Fine, as long as you don't live in Michigan.
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah or main Yeah. So Trump's true social post put
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: it this way, Canada has been ripping off the United
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: States of America for years. They're ridiculously high tariffs on
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: our farmers and farm products. Has made life impossible for
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: these great American patriots and has long created, by the way,
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: I'll just pause there and say, that's kind of true,
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: the question of how your address it remains significant. He
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: goes on and said they've long created a sixty billion
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: dollar deficit between our two countries. It's not sustainable and
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: not anymore. On January first, twenty twenty seven, tariffs on
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: all cars, trucks, both large and small, automotive parts, and
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: steel will be increased to fifty percent build in the
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: US and there are zero tariffs. Canada will be treated
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: like a state no longer on trade and in other ways. Also,
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: there among the worst nations in the world to deal with.
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: They feel entitled and yet all caps we don't need Canada,
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: they need us. They do ninety five percent of their
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: business with the US with US, the exact opposite, opposite,
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: and then he ended with the classic thank you for
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump, reassuring
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: no doubt to people in states that are going to
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: be hit hard. But the problem, I mean a lot
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: of those states, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan, this is actually a
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: problem people want to see address. It's the same thing
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: like with farmers during the first Trump administration. You'd have
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: some corporate media reporter going out talking to farmers, expecting
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: them to be furious about the terror, which we're genuinely
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: hurting them, and what you would get was them saying,
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: we're willing to be patient because we know we have
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: structural problems. Like time and again, every time you would
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: go out and try to find someone, the corporate press
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: would go out try to find someone, you would hear
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: them saying, listen, we know this is a problem. We're
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: just hoping that he can fix it. Like fingers crossed,
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: we know something structurally needs to change, but I don't
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: think people have confidence that those structural changes are as
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: Jamison Greer put it, really really going in the right direction.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: No, I don't think they do. We were going to
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: cover the cattle crisis the Trump sparked in the last
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: couple of days, but punting that till tomorrow. But I
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: was watching some of the kind of the cattle podcasts
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: yesterday and they're just it's just watching these guys go
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: through the stages of grief, right like this, this America
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: first president was our last hope. This is truly what
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: we invested in, our hopes and dreams in and he
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: has betrayed us. And we're going to be like a
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: bunch and they're just sent we're just going to leave
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: the industry, like we're giving up, like we can't even
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: we can't compete anymore with this. And watching them kind
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: of walk themselves through that those stages of grief was
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: fascinating and it's like damn this, Like Wow.
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: A lot of Republicans really really angry about the beef
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: decision as well, And I know you guys are going
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: to cover this, but Tim shee he Tuck Grassly, if
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: you're from anag state, they're furious about it. And those
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: are people who wanted something to be done, who are
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: open to structural drastic policy maneuvers, but not that structural
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: drastic policy maneuver.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Basically, Trump wants to bring in a bunch of diseased
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Brazilian in Argentinian beef to smash to smash the domestic
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: cattle industry to get to.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: The midterms because he started a warn.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Round ninety days. Again, he's doing it for ninety days.
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Speaking of the midterms, let's move on to the
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: Supreme Court decision.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: A big victory for the Trump administration. The Supreme Court yesterday.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: You can put up this New York Times element. The
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court stepped in and allowed his executive order on
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: mail in voting to go forward. So let's unpack a
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: little bit what actually happened here. So the Court and
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Emily step in, and you think I'm steering this wrong.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: The executive came in. Trump came in executive order that
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: was a three part executive order, but the thrust of
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: it was, We're going to send the states a list
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: of citizens, and we are going to insist on a
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: certain set of rules and regulations that you're going to
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: have to follow or else the mail will not deliver
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: your ballots. And officials involved with the programs will be
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: prosecuted if we find, if we believe that you did
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: not follow this executive orders as the law as it
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: applies to the law. And a bunch of states sued
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: to enjoin this, saying very clearly in the Constitution it
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: says the administration of the elections is left to the states.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Like it's not ambiguous, it's just right there, and that
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: pretty cursive in the Constitution. There it is, and that
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: having us go through all this work damages you know,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: it damages us. It costs us money, and living with
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: this threat of prosecution is crazy. You don't have any
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: authority whatsoever in this realm. Go away. And the lower
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: courts said, yes, they're correct, they should not have to
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: deal with this. States run the elections, leave them alone.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: This executive order is unconstitutional and invalid, and we've stated
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration then went to the Supreme Court, and
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court has agreed to lift the stay temporarily, temporarily.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Their argument is that they haven't issued a final ruling, right,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: a final rule, that they did the order but not
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: the rule, and that because they haven't issued the rule,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: that at this point there's no there are no damages,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: there's no problem for the states, except the states, as
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: they've said, they're already scrambling. And then the other respond
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: to all this stuff.
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: On the other side, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: as the executive would be irreparably harmed if they did
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: not allow it temporarily to go into action. Right. That
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: was the flip side of it is that the states
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: can't prove the harm the administration would have would suffer
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: a reparable harm to the implementation of the executive order.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and Soto, Mayor and Jackson and forget who else
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: in descent, you know, pointed out that there's there was
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: no Kagan. There was no effort by the Trump administration
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: to even explain or assert how it is that they
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: would prevail and overcome the obvious obstacle, which is that
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: the Constitution says you can't do this. Very specifically, the
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Constitution says that the voting is left up to the states.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: And the Supreme Court also said that the States can't
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: sue because there's speculative harm because they might be prosecuted,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: but they may not be prosecuted, which if you're an
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: election official, that's not a very it's not comforting, it's
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: not very comforting, but hey, right, guaranteeing that you're going
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: to be prosecuted for not following this executive order, so
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: therefore you can't challenge it beforehand.
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting because it's all over mail in ballot,
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: so that for Republicans means a lot of elderly Republican
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: friendly voters vote by mail, and so this is also
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: a challenge for them. It's a challenge to even get
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: Republicans who now have if your hardcore magot type voter,
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: to get you out to the polls. Does it cause
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: problems with that? I mean that's someone was saying. Some
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: Republican strategists were saying as much on CNN last night.
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: I could see how that would be true. But this
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: is also going to keep Sea sawing. So reading from
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: NPR here, they report a broader injunction remains in place
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: against that executive order from March as part of a
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: separate but related lawsuit. The Postal Service is blocked from
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: following Trump's directives under a nationwide ruling that was from
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: the district judge in Boston, But in a court filing
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: late Monday, the administration says it plans to ask the
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: first Circuit Court of Appeals to pause that ruling. If
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: the judge does not pause or cancel the ruling by
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: five thirty pm today, a dozen Republican led states have
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: already appealed that ruling and pr reports. So it's actually
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: really confusing legal tangle of what actually might be happening
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: come election day. And if you're the states, I mean,
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: it's a mess, there's no question about it. And Mikey
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: Cheryl just obviously anticipating how difficult this was going to
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: be purged a bunch of non citizens from the voting rules.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: That was an actual thing that Mikey Cheryl dealt with.
• 45:23
  Speaker 8: But now.
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: If you're a blue state, it's just unclear what's going
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: to happen, and like you have to start prepping mail
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: in balance that start happening soon.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, this there is a lot of concern out
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: there about what plans Trump is hatching to try to
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: because if you followed the previous couple of segments that
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: we did today, Trump is driving the country and the
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: world into a ditch. And as a you know, nominally
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: democratic society, that comes with major repercussions. That's why presidents
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: care about the unemployment rate GDP inflation because they are
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: punished at the polls if their stewardship of the economy
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: is such that people are angry about how things are going.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: Trump is trying to sever the link between his performance
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: as president and the Democratic checks on that performance, rather
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: than perform better. Trump has been very clear he is
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: more interested in waging his war on Iran than he
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: is with the well being, the immediate well being of
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: American's economic situations. He has said, people can suffer higher
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: gas prices. It's it's okay. I'm not worried about it,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: he said.
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: Or he'd remember. He did not sign the housing Bill,
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: the Elizabeth Warren Tim Scott. He would not sign it
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: because he was demanding the Save Act. And actually a
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: lot of the reasons any right, of course, right, because
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: it was so bipartisan. But one of the big reasons
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: that Republicans are hesitant to get on board with the
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: Save Act is actually because of the federalization of elections
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: we're talking about here. Now. This is an executive order,
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: as Ryan explained, that tells DHS to come up with
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: a list of citizen voters and send it of citizens
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: and send it to the states and say compare this
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: list the federal government's list, and then purge basically people
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: who are not on this list because they're non citizens
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: from your voter rules. Non citizens should absolutely not be
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: voting in federal elections. They unless it's you know, here
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: in DC, non citizens can vote in local elections. That's
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: DC's jurisdiction. I don't think it's particularly good policy, but
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: that's a debate for another day. But non citizens are
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: also not going to swing the Metrum elections. It's also
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: not going to happen. And with the Save Act, a
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: lot of Republicans were saying, who are federalizing elections by
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: stepping in and telling states what they can and cannot
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: do and how they decide to run their local elections.
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: And they were uncomfortable with that. So it's different shades,
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: I guess of federal control over elections when you look
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: at the two policies. Jos Shapiro put out a post
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: yesterday saying, not so fast. Today's SCOTUS decision does not
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: deal with the substance of Trump's unconstitutional executive order and
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: does not mean his illegal attempt to restrict mail in
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: voting will go forward. Donald Trump does not run elections
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: here in Pennsylvania or in any state. We'll see the
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: Trump administration in court. In the meantime, I'll keep defending
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: Pennsylvania's right to free, fair, insecure elections. So all this
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: is to say, these legal decisions about to what degree
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: the federal government can stick its kind of I was
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: going to say nos, but I mean the federal government
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: can control how states run their elections. It's playing out
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: in a very very short timeline, very.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Short timeline, right, which is another argument that the states
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: had made, like you can't do this at this moment. Also, yeah,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: to your point about non citizens not being the thing
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: they're going to swing the midterms, something like fifty percent
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: of our citizens don't vote, Like, we have a not
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: voting problem in the United States. We don't have a
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: we don't have a voting problem. If there were an
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: epide if there was an epidemic of non citizens voting,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: we would hear about it NonStop. They've found like what
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: three or something over years, they've found like a handful
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: of people who like misunderstood, like, they have never found
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: any systematic voting by non citizens. They never found any
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: actual project to try to get non citizens to vote.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Because think about it, you don't have to do that.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: There are tens of millions of legal citizens who do
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: not vote. So if you are a political campaign or
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: a political party, you have tens of millions of people
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: to try to get to vote. Yeah, before, Like, imagine
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: how hard it is to get somebody to go out
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: and vote, even when they are already registered to vote
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: and they're a citizen, and you still can't get them
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: to vote because there's nothing to vote for. Now you're
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: going to try to talk somebody into doing it when
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: they know they could go to prison for it. So
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: you gonna you're gonna risk prison when you're not even
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: a citizen to vote for some liar, like not a
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: citizens aren't idiots either, like they like they're not moved
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: by these candidates, Like nobody's nobody's moved by any of
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: these candidates. Like most people do some level of civic
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: duty and harm reduction at.
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: The first production at the PUS A really good way
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: to put.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: It, that's all they do. So why would you risk
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: your freedom to do that? That's why this is just
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: not a thing that exists.
• 50:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, on the other hand, I think when
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: we at some of the scary polls with Americans losing
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: faith in the accuracy of election results, and you do
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: have according to the New York Times David Leonhardt's estimate,
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: I think this is probably on the low end as well.
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: Eight million non citizens coming to the United States in
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: a period of about three years, and you don't have
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: national voter ID. I think there are some fair concerns
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: that people have about what might be happening, but it's
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: very unlikely that's swaying. It's a decisive factor in elections.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: I also think if Republicans would and Democrats should do this,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: just put a bill on the floor that's voter id's
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: because Democrats, I think have moved beyond like for a
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: long time they were pretty hostile to voter ID. Right
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: now I think they're actually basically everybody's fine with it.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: But the Save Act has all these other weird things
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: in it, So just if they just put voter ID
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: on the floor, I bet it would actually pass.
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: I think they're mostly fine on a national level. I
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: think it's state Democrats who know in the short term
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: that would be difficult because it is true that like
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: for voters, especially like in low income areas, that you're
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: adding an extra hurdle, so you are eating in the
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: margins of likely Democratic votes in close elections. So I
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: think probably the biggest issue is on the state level
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: people would be hesitant, But federal level, I think you're right.
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: It's you know, if save had just been a voter
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: ide bill, that would have actually been kind of interesting.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: Also, the first line of the Supreme Court ruling is
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: kind of funny because to me, it's just a straight
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: up lie.
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: That's how you posted about this.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, the first line is about five months ago, President
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Trump issued an executive order designed to maintain public confidence
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: in federal elections.
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: Well he does.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: Is there anybody who believes that President Trump issued this
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: order to maintain public confidence in federal elections? It just
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: wants us to have some trust to gain my confidence
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: in federal elections. Thanks to the design of this order
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: and the Supreme Court ruling just rock solid.
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we can only go so, we can only keep
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: going up.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: It should have said, about five months ago President Trump
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: issued an executive order designed to tilt the elections in
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: his favor.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: Rang Grid just be honest, sick of winning, nice, sick
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: of winning? All right, Well, let's move to Michigan, speaking
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: of the midterms, where abdul Lsay's campaign has had an
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: interesting forty eight hours