Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Syria's Russian reconstruction | feat. Anna Borshchevskaya

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Syria's Russian reconstruction | feat. Anna Borshchevskaya · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good morning, it's Friday, August 21st, the Multifront war in the Middle East is now 1,049 days old.
• 0:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Jonathan Chanzer, welcome back to the FTD morning brief.
• 0:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Insanity yesterday, I've been goring an airport after an in-promptu an unofficial labor strike, shut down both check ins and arrivals and one of the busiest travel days of the year and out of Israel.
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: And as if
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: That wasn't chaotic enough.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: It looks like the European Union is gearing up to impose sanctions on Israel for its plans to build new housing units in the area known as E1, which sits on the edge of Jerusalem and the West Bank or Judea in Samaria, as many call it.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: From what we understand, these new European punitive measures could include labeling products from Israel, not only from the West Bank settlements, to warn consumers that they are buying illicit goods.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: measures also might include scaling down academic collaborations and halting certain security and diplomatic ones got to say that seems like it's going to hurt Europe more than it's going to hurt Israel.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, the Israelis have been threatening to build an E1 for years.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: I tend to think this is an election cycle stunt, but I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
• 1:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I gotta say, this is not the time for Israel to be asking for more isolation.
• 1:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's plenty of that going around right now.
• 1:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: Come to think of it.
• 1:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that's why this is on the table when you're getting punished.
• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: You might as well do something naughty.
• 1:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is that the logic?
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: The United States will impose the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Basit.
• 1:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: This comes after President Donald Trump threatened an economic day for the regime with tremendous consequences.
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Look, I'm all for more sanctions, but let's be honest.
• 1:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: The U.S. military has already done enormous economic damage to the regime and whatever these scary sounding sanctions in tail, we may be at a point of diminishing returns.
• 2:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's time for the president and his cabinet to say the quiet part out loud.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know why they want to heat more sanctions on the regime?
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: because they want to bring it down.
• 2:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: They want it relegated to the ash heap of history, but nobody will say so because it's out of bulk, because a recent botched regime change attempts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• 2:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's just silly.
• 2:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: regime changes nothing to be ashamed of.
• 2:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Iranian regime
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: deserves to go down.
• 2:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Dido for the Taliban and Saddam, I'm glad we toppled them.
• 2:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sure, some might think we live in a different era where wars have new rules of armed conflict, but we don't just look at the brutality of Russia, Iran, Hamas and his Bala, and just wait for what China is cooking up in Taiwan.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Look, more economic sanctions don't offend me, but what should come after is a knockout blow to the thugs who've been chanting death to America for a half a century.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: So say it loud and say it proud.
• 3:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: We want this regime gone and there's nothing shameful about saying so.
• 3:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: now for your headlines headline one the Trump administration sanctioned the international criminal courts president and top lawyer over their egregious corrupt politicized con conduct in a statement explaining the moves secretary state Marco Rubio said the ICC abused its authority by issuing arrest warrants for nationals whose government is not party to the ICC.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's pretty clear he was talking about the warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Galan.
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Of course Rubio is not just doing this for the Israelis.
• 3:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: The ICC could just as easily target Americans for wars we fight in the future or even wars past.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's just unacceptable.
• 3:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: The ICC says the US sanctions are, quote, uh, they undermine the rule of law.
• 3:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's a quote.
• 3:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you ask me, that's the pot calling the kettle black.
• 3:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: keep those sanctions coming.
• 3:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Headline 2, the United Arab Emirates, the UAE suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran after Tehran filed two ballistic missiles at the Gulf country on Tuesday.
• 4:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: And let me say, this is a BFD, as the kids might say.
• 4:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: The UAE is one of Iran's economic lifelines.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's a critical
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: called Hub by which the Islamic Republic has remained plugged into the global economy.
• 4:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Shouldn't have happened in the first place.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the UAE is supposed to be a close American ally, and that should mean alignment of policies, economic, or otherwise.
• 4:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: Instead, the Iranians have been moving money through Abu Dhabi, Sharja, and other corrupt Emirates out of the UAE for years.
• 4:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: A meaningful Emirati blockade could mean crippling economic pressure,
• 4:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: on this regime, this sounds like the D-Day Sanctions Trump was promising that is if the M. Roddy's are prepared to follow through.
• 4:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Have I three inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, began excavating a suspected secret?
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: nuclear site run by the former Assad regime in Syria, the new Syrian government under al-Qaeda control has said that it will cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdoggan, grant inspectors' access to sites that were off-limits during Assad's era.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is a good thing, folks.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm glad to see this, although I must say, I don't like that any nuclear material on Earth through this process,
• 5:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: is slated to remain in Syria, subject to international safeguards.
• 5:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: After the years of a clown show in Iran, you'll have to forgive me for not taking the I.A.
• 5:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: seriously on this score.
• 5:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: And quick, Heter, headline four.
• 5:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: After these really struck that runway in Syria to prevent the Turkish military from landing its aircraft with weapons and fighters.
• 5:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Turks are now reportedly sending vehicles across the border, including tanks.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Israel may have some tough choices to make here as it looks to deter the Turks from gaining full control over Syria and then using it as a gray zone for proxy activity.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: I know people say that Turkey is not Iran fine understood, but it certainly seems to want to emulate the Islamic Republic something that we're going to continue to watch.
• 6:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Dangerous stuff.
• 6:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's get down to our interview.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: Today's guest is Anna Borschka of Sky up, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy at Place where I worked some years ago.
• 6:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Anna is a widely published expert on Russia's policy in the Middle East, including an acclaimed book on Russia's role in Syria, relevant for our conversation today.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: She previously consulted the U.S. State Department on Defense Strategy in the Black Sea region.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: She's been closely tracking the Russians across the Middle East.
• 6:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: So let's find out what Vlad
• 6:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Whooping has been up too, shall we?
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's bring Anna under the show.
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the FDD Morning Brief on a Borschgift sky up.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for having me.
• 6:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's always a pleasure to be with you, John.
• 6:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is my pleasure.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: So thanks.
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: OK, I want to start with a recent report that Russia has renegotiated its bases with the government of Syria.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: So maybe if you would just tell us which bases and what does that buy them?
• 7:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: What did they get out of this new agreement?
• 7:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sure, the bases we're talking about are Russia's two primary military bases.
• 7:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Tartus, that is a naval facility, and mainly basically in an international airport.
• 7:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: And this was Russia's biggest military base in Syria.
• 7:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: The one thing to know about this agreement is first, it was a long-time coming.
• 7:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a surprise, and two, many details of this agreement are still unknown.
• 7:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: The agreement itself has not been made public, and what has been publicly announced is that there's some sort of a reduced Russian role, these bases are turning into more civilian spaces, the military focus, but there's going to be some sort of joint military training between Russian and Syrian forces, and exactly what that means for me, that's a big question.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, I want to just kind of push on one thing here.
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Russians were the primary regime that was propping up Assad.
• 8:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: This could not have sat well with the current regime in Syria.
• 8:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: They, I'm sure, hold a grudge toward the Russians for having propped up the regime that they
• 8:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: How did we get from, we hate them, they helped us on to sure, let's let them maintain a presence in two bases that they considered to be critical to their ability to project power into the Middle East.
• 8:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, we were here because kicking Russia entirely out of Syria is very, very hard.
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you're absolutely right, this new, this new leadership that came in place of Assad does not like Russia.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Remember, Russia bombed Al-Shara and his forces.
• 9:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that we are here to discuss this issue, I mean, I think of the significance of this Russia bombed Shara, and yet it's been proven impossible to kick Russia out entirely at this stage of our discussion.
• 9:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's highly unusual for a country that backed one ruling regime, to have that regime ousted by opposition and have that country still maintain their basis in some capacity.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's an unusual situation and I think we need to acknowledge that.
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the reason why this is hard is because
• 9:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: both sides recognize that they still need each other, but on balance, Syria still needs Russia more.
• 9:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we do know, and the, for, is a matter of fact, that when of SARS forces advanced on Damascus in December 2014, they made a deal with the Russians that there would be some sort of place for Russia in post-Assad Syria.
• 10:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And here we are today.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got to say, it still strikes me as just downright bizarre that this is happening.
• 10:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: You'd think that they'd be more eager to bring in some other power, but here we are, the same people that were training the Assad regime and his Bala to kill Sunni fighters.
• 10:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now those Sunni fighters are in charge and they're welcoming Russia back.
• 10:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you can't make this stuff up, but you know, it's the Middle East and it's the middle of a war.
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I guess, you know, let's just take it all at face value.
• 10:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm all right.
• 10:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to stick with Syria for a minute and touch on this question of serious military build up.
• 10:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now we're hearing right now that the government of Syria, the military of Syria.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's the fastest growing military in the world.
• 10:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's the largest build up of any military on the planet.
• 10:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we know that much of this is thanks to the government of Turkey, but we're also hearing that the Russians are part of this.
• 10:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: And maybe that's the agreement that we don't know as much about, but maybe the Russians have agreed, hey, you let us stay and we build up your military along with the Turks.
• 11:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is that what's going on here?
• 11:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: What are the Syrians getting from Russia that you've heard?
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, what we know with certainty is that it's going to be very hard for Syria to build its military without some input from the Russians.
• 11:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is because for several decades, Syria's military has been heavily dependent on first Soviet and then a Russian military equipment.
• 11:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's not just weapon rates, things like training.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's maintenance of equipment.
• 11:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: There was simply no other alternative to Russia in the military realm for Syria for decades.
• 11:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so it's going to be very hard for Russia to win itself in the absence of other alternatives.
• 11:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's been about a year and a half since that's fall.
• 12:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's not a long time.
• 12:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's, who else is willing to step up and provide the types of discounts, the types of maintenance, the type of training, especially if we're asking Syria to be our counterterrorism partner.
• 12:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is, again, this comes down to what we just talked about a minute ago.
• 12:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not about whether you like or dislike Russia, it's about whether or not you can find alternatives to it.
• 12:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the Syrian government at this stage simply doesn't have a full
• 12:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and we, I mean, I noticed you didn't even mention the question of parts right for whether it's aircraft or tanks or whatever it is, you know, it's not just maintenance, it's, you know, like if anything gets hit, if anything gets destroyed, and I'm assuming there will be battles at some point, maybe with Israel, maybe with somebody else, but the parts as well as the maintenance and as you mentioned the training, all of it.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: think that explains why Russia's still welcome that there's just no alternative.
• 13:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: But okay, speaking of Turkey, Russians, I have been seeing reports of Turkey possibly sending its
• 13:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: This, at least as the argument goes, would solve a longstanding dispute with the United States about said S-400 system, this Russian-made system.
• 13:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if you would, just give us the backstory about that S-400.
• 13:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: And let us know.
• 13:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this something that you see as plausible?
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
• 13:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: The back story with the S-400 and Turkey goes back to 2019 when Turkey had decided to purchase the system from the Russian government.
• 13:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the S-400 is essentially the crown jewel of Russia's military hardware.
• 13:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: It protects aerospace.
• 13:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's an air defense system.
• 13:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's really not just one piece of equipment.
• 13:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a system.
• 13:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the key thing to know about that is that Turkey's part of NATO.
• 14:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So as a NATO member to have such an important piece of Russian military equipment is deeply problematic, because it raises all sorts of questions about what access the Russians would get.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: in terms of knowledge of our own systems, our NATO systems within NATO.
• 14:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: The secondary issue with that, of course, was simply interoperability of these two systems, because this is Russian versus NATO equipment.
• 14:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: As a result, Turkey was sanctioned under the Katso, that's the US legislation for purchasing a Russian equipment.
• 14:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you're just being already in a rub that's the countering American adversaries through sanctions act, which punishes countries for acquiring systems just like, yes, 400.
• 14:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Chris is a quote into American law.
• 15:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry.
• 15:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Great.
• 15:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Great.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, as far as we know,
• 15:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's 400's were never really fully operable in other or tricky, or tricky purchase them, but never fully opened them.
• 15:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: But it's still problematic that they're in Turkey.
• 15:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so that brings us to the present day.
• 15:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And really the bigger story here is the deep rift between the NATO alliance and Turkey.
• 15:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the challenges of dealing with Turkey as a NATO ally, when it does things like purchasing equipment
• 15:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: But bringing us to the present to Syria, you know, these reports have yet to be confirmed.
• 15:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: I have no way to verify them.
• 15:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: There were earlier reports that other countries in the Gulf might take the S-400 as well.
• 15:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think we'll have to wait and see.
• 15:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: But one way or the other, any country that is a US partner that has a Russian system like that.
• 15:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, raises the same questions that I did for Turkey.
• 16:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 16:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I got to say, I'm sure if the Israelis are watching and I know they are given all the other things that have been happening with Turkish activity in Syria, the last thing the Israelis want is for that that Russian system to be deployed is to potentially target Israeli planes.
• 16:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Of course, the Russians, not exactly, I mean, their platforms have not performed
• 16:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: an exemplary way throughout this war.
• 16:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they've had their, I mean, I think it's primarily S300s, but I'd be curious to find out whether the S400s have been effective either, but the Israelis have just destroyed pretty much all of those Russian systems in Iran.
• 16:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I do, I mean, I guess I've got questions about whether the S400 can perform
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: in the way that the Russians, or maybe the Turks or the Syrians, might have hoped or expected, it kind of looks like it's been a disaster for the Russian-made systems that Russian arms industry.
• 17:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got to tell you, if I own stock, I would have dumped it after the 12-day war last year.
• 17:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Am I wrong in my assessment of these Russian systems?
• 17:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Or, say, S-400, that much better than all the other things that the Israelis and Americans have
• 17:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, you're not entirely wrong, but two things to know about that specifically in Syria, remember when Russians were in Syria under Assad, Israelis were especially cautious in terms of communication with the Russians, because once Russia came into Syria militarily to prop up Assad,
• 17:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Israel became dependent on Russia's goodwill to conduct its air strikes against Iranian back targets.
• 17:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: They opened a so-called Deconfliction Channel in order to have open conversation about these strikes.
• 17:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Israelis routinely talked about
• 17:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: this concern for years, that Russia is now their neighbor and whether you're like it or not, we now have to depend on their goodwill for these operations.
• 18:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, and so frankly, bringing back your earlier question, if the S400 really is brought to Syria, that bring this back to the same conversation that we had.
• 18:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: when Assad wasn't power, it's exactly the same story.
• 18:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: But in terms of whether or not the S300 or 400s are effective, there are several issues that are brought up in Venezuela in particular, and that is simply poor ability to use them.
• 18:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: that is so, and as 400 is more advanced than the as 300.
• 18:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, it's clear that it's not infallible, and I think that's another lesson to draw from that that maybe we shouldn't be so afraid of the Russians.
• 18:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm going to say, I'm not impressed, but let's see whether this one system makes a difference if it's even deployed to Syria, but I think we can all acknowledge that, you know, whether it's through the human error, operator error, or whether it's because the system sucks, either way, it's not done a lot to deter those that have been taking to the guys and
• 19:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to ask you about Iran specifically and Russia because we can tell you to hear that the Russians are supplying the Iranians with all kinds of assistance, right?
• 19:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it's, you know, it's drone or drone part, it's gas, it's cash, it's intelligence.
• 19:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I think we've seen in particular a pipeline on the Caspian Sea that has been, I, it looks like it's going both ways
• 19:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Tell us about this pipeline, and tell us what can be done to stop it.
• 19:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
• 19:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, first and foremost, I think it's important to remember that Russia and Iran are together in this war.
• 19:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we often tend to think about these as separate theaters, but from the Russian perspective, this is all one global war.
• 20:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is why it should have come as no surprise that Russia was supporting around from the very beginning just as you've described through intelligence, through supplies, through all sorts of things.
• 20:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Caspian Sea is one is a director out of trade between Russia and Iran.
• 20:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is both commercial and also anything else that can, any kind of dual use technology is actually anything that can pass through that goes through this route.
• 20:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: That is why we've seen Ukrainians recently strike ships in the Caspian.
• 20:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why we've seen headlines that talked about the Russia and Iran war quote unquote merging together.
• 20:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that simply maybe I think we've already there for a long time it's simply becoming more obvious.
• 20:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's the way to look at it that this is really just one war.
• 21:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think that's right and if you, for those listening or watching, we've been talking a lot here at FDD about what we call the access of aggressors that it's actually China, Russia, Iran, maybe even to a lesser extent, North Korea all working together to try to undermine the U.S. led world order, the U.S. led regional order, and yeah, keep an eye on that.
• 21:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's only growing.
• 21:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, I do need to ask you, it's like a,
• 21:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: It feels like it's an uncovered story.
• 21:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Russians are helping Iran, right?
• 21:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then Iran is bombing these Gulf states, right?
• 21:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: All of them talking about, you know, like the Saudis and the Emirates and the Kuwaitis and the Qataris.
• 21:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: That cannot sit well with these Gulf countries.
• 21:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: They've been bombarded by Iranian weapons and some of those have been supplied by Moscow.
• 21:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: The intelligence has been supplied by Moscow.
• 21:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'll be hearing about chemical precursors
• 21:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: are we watching real strain on this relationship between the golfies and Russia?
• 22:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is that playing out in ways that are discernible?
• 22:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Or is it just quiet, seeding anger?
• 22:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: But it cannot be ignored, right?
• 22:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, it can't be ignored, but it's also again not a surprise either.
• 22:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And for this reason, I don't think at this stage we're seeing a fundamental shift with golf stage turning away from Russia.
• 22:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why I think if we go back to, again, the earlier things that we discussed in this podcast, what is Russia really trying to do here?
• 22:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, Russia is playing a very nuanced game and perhaps more sophisticated game that they're given credit for.
• 22:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: They are helping Iran, again, we knew Russia was allied with Iran, we shouldn't have expected anything different.
• 22:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: But their support still has been fairly limited.
• 22:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is because there are many reasons for that.
• 22:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: But one is Russia would not want to go against the US military or these railing military.
• 23:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's a fight they would lose.
• 23:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And two, they do not want to isolate the rest of the region, including the Gulf states.
• 23:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, although, I mean, I got to say, you know, if you keep supporting the country that is bombing all these countries, kind of hard doesn't look nuanced to me.
• 23:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't do you think they see this in a nuanced way.
• 23:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
• 23:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: I've got questions.
• 23:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think that at some point they probably start to take some collective measure against the Russians.
• 23:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I'm wrong.
• 23:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: But, and I know that these are not countries that are known for, you know, being profiles encouraged.
• 23:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so maybe they're not exactly willing to stand up to the Russians.
• 23:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I've got to imagine that at some point they do.
• 23:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right.
• 23:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got one last question.
• 23:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've been very generous with your time.
• 23:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Just, you know, we don't cover the Ukraine, Russia war as much as we should.
• 23:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Can you give us just like a one minute rundown who's winning, who's up, you know, who's down, kind of, where are we?
• 24:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ukrainians have been doing remarkably well, especially in their targeting of Russian energy infrastructure.
• 24:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: But winter is coming.
• 24:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: and Russians have been also fighting back, so in terms of who's winning, who's losing, while Ukrainians have been doing very well, we're not yet at a point where one side has achieved a decisive advantage over the other, and for that Ukrainians need more help from the West, from us and from the Europeans, in order to tip the scales in Ukraine's favor, and we're not quite there yet.
• 24:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, winter is coming.
• 24:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Don't like the sound of that.
• 24:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Although it was a good show.
• 24:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, well, thank you.
• 24:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: On a board ship sky up or joining us, yet again on the FDD Morning Brief.
• 24:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for having.
• 24:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, that's a wrap on your Friday episode.
• 24:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you need a weekend fix of FDD head on over to our website, FDD.org or check out our social media accounts, you'll thank us.
• 25:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: You can also make a tax deductible donation at FDD.org slash and fast.
• 25:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: We can't do what we do without you and we couldn't be more grateful for your support.
• 25:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Finally, a quick shoutout to a new friend who I only known as Maccabeeat.
• 25:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: This ex-user posted an AI-enabled photo of me on day 17,842 of the war in the year 2072.
• 25:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's nearly 50 years from now, and future me looks well exhausted with a long white beard and I'm still counting down to the
• 25:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: hilarious AI usage their Macabep.
• 25:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the laugh.
• 25:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: I needed one.
• 25:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Keep them coming.
• 25:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, folks.
• 25:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's it.
• 25:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: See you on Monday.
• 25:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Until then, I'm Jonathan Shanzer as always.
• 25:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: signing off for FTD.