Latest / Common Sense - Red State Finance / You'll Own Nothing. And Apparently Everything Has a Monthly Fee.

Transcript

You'll Own Nothing. And Apparently Everything Has a Monthly Fee. · Common Sense - Red State Finance

• 0:00
  [upbeat music] From Red State Finance, this is Common Sense, the news, the money, and the nonsense explained for people who think. Here are your hosts, Cole and Savannah.
• 0:15
  Diesel, six bucks a gallon in a lot of places. And the internet has a theory for why. Actually, about 40 theories. Wars for oil, a secret plan to make you buy an electric truck.
• 0:28
  Today, we're putting on the tinfoil hats, Cole, and then we're taking them off. Today, on Common Sense. Does Washington start wars to protect the petrodollar? Is somebody squeezing diesel on purpose?
• 0:41
  The one conspiracy theory that's actually backed by economics. And three ways to protect your wallet when fuel prices go crazy. That's all coming up. Stick around. [upbeat music] All right.
• 0:56
  Welcome to Common Cents from Red State Finance. Not left, not right. Just over it. I'm Savannah. I'm Cole. And Savannah, I wanna start with a confession.
• 1:08
  I watched a three-hour YouTube video about oil at 1:00 in the morning. Oh, no. Guy had a whiteboard, red string, the whole thing.
• 1:17
  Every time gas goes up or a war starts, everybody becomes a geopolitical expert with a webcam.
• 1:23
  So today, we're going through the big theories, why we fight wars, why diesel costs a fortune, and why your paycheck keeps shrinking. And for each one, we ask, what's the theory and what's the boring truth?
• 1:36
  Because the boring truth is usually the one that costs you money. Okay. Theory one, the granddaddy, blood for oil. The theory goes like this. Washington doesn't fight wars for democracy. It fights for two things.
• 1:50
  One, to keep defense contractors swimming in money, Lockheed, Raytheon, General Dynamics. And two, the petrodollar. Right. Most of the world's oil gets priced in U.S. dollars.
• 2:03
  That keeps everybody needing dollars, which helps keep our borrowing cheap. And the theory says, if a country tries to sell oil in something else, they get a visit. And people point to real examples.
• 2:15
  Saddam Hussein did switch Iraq's oil sales to euros in 2000. Gaddafi floated a gold-backed African currency before Libya fell. And look, it's a little funny how fast democracy shows up in countries with a lot of oil.
• 2:29
  Meanwhile, countries with no oil, suddenly it's complicated. Okay. But here's my problem with the theory. If the goal is cheap oil, war is the worst possible way to get it. Way worse.
• 2:42
  The Iraq War cost American taxpayers trillions of dollars, and gas prices still hit a record in 2008. If you just wanted cheap oil, you'd drop the sanctions and buy it. It's 1000 times cheaper than an invasion.
• 2:56
  So fact or fairy tale? The petrodollar is real, and it matters. Oil was part of the picture, but we invade countries to make gas cheap? The receipts don't add up. Half fact, half fairy tale.
• 3:10
  [upbeat music] Theory two, and this one's been all over social media, the diesel squeeze. Okay. First, why does diesel matter so much? I drive a gas car. Not my problem, right? Totally your problem.
• 3:26
  Diesel moves everything, semis, trains, cargo ships, tractors. If gas goes up, you spend an extra 20 bucks at the pump.
• 3:35
  If diesel goes up, the cost of moving every steak, every board of lumber, every roll of toilet paper goes up. So the theory is that somebody's squeezing diesel on purpose. Right.
• 3:47
  Washington and global elites are choking off refineries with regulations and climate rules, so truckers get crushed, and everybody's forced into electric semis. That cost, what? Half a million dollars a piece?
• 4:00
  Something like that. And here's the thing, part of it is true. U.S. refining capacity dropped by about a million barrels a day after 2020, and some refineries got converted to make renewable diesel instead. So it's real.
• 4:14
  The drop is real. The secret plan, not so much. When the lockdowns hit, fuel demand fell off a cliff. Oil companies lost billions.
• 4:24
  Old refineries that needed billions in repairs just got shut down because they were losing money. So not a secret meeting, just bad math. Brutal market math.
• 4:35
  Add tough permitting and Europe cutting off Russian diesel after the Ukraine invasion, so the whole world fights over the same barrels. And nobody's built a big new refinery in this country since the '70s. Verdict?
• 4:48
  The squeeze is real. The villain is mostly a spreadsheet. Theory three. And Cole, I think this is the one that's actually got legs. Inflation is a government money grab.
• 5:00
  This one, honestly, has the most real economics behind it. Okay. Explain. When inflation hit a 40 year high, everybody blamed somebody else. One side called it Putin's price hike.
• 5:12
  Some people blamed greedy grocery stores. The other side blamed government handouts. Everybody's got a villain. But Milton Friedman said it best, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
• 5:26
  Too many dollars chasing too few things. And who's got the most dollars to pay back? The government. Uncle Sam is sitting on close to $40 trillion in debt. And here's the trick. When prices go up, the debt doesn't. Okay.
• 5:40
  Explain that like we're at a barbecue. Say you borrowed 1,000 bucks from your brother-in-law 10 years ago. Since then, prices went up 30%. You still owe him 1,000, but that 1,000 buys a lot less than it used to.
• 5:54
  So inflation shrinks the debt in real terms. For the borrower. And for the saver? The saver gets robbed. The money in my savings account buys less every year. Economists literally call it the inflation tax.
• 6:08
  Nobody votes on it It just shows up at the checkout. Verdict, fact. You don't need a secret cabal. It's how the system works, and both parties spend like it's somebody else's money. Not left, not right. Just over it.
• 6:24
  Okay, quick break before theory four. The RedState Finance shop has the not left, not right, just over it tee. Links in the show notes. Tinfoil hats sold separately. [upbeat music] Theory four, the Great Reset.
• 6:39
  Ugh, here we go. This one comes from people who don't trust the World Economic Forum.
• 6:45
  The idea is that Western governments are letting energy get expensive on purpose, so regular people stop owning cars and driving wherever they want. Because if gas is three bucks, you drive everywhere.
• 6:57
  If gas is eight and diesel is nine... You can't afford the commute, the road trip, or living out in the country. You get pushed into the city onto the bus. And people always bring up that World Economic Forum video.
• 7:10
  You'll own nothing and be happy. That's a real video. It was a what if prediction from 2016, not an official plan, but it sure doesn't help. Here's my honest take.
• 7:22
  I don't think there's a secret plan, but energy policy sometimes looks like it was designed by somebody who hates cheap energy. Cancel pipelines, limit drilling, pile on rules, and then act shocked when prices go up.
• 7:35
  And then go on TV and say, "See, this is why we need to go green faster." That's like breaking somebody's leg, selling them crutches, and saying, "See, I told you that leg wasn't working."
• 7:47
  Verdict, fairy tale on the secret plan, but the policies are real, and you pay for them either way. So all four theories. Here's the boring truth. Politicians spend to win elections. The Fed creates the money.
• 8:01
  Rules and sanctions limit supply. And Wall Street and oil companies make money off the chaos. No hooded figures, just bad incentives, and the bill lands in the same place every time. Your wallet.
• 8:14
  [upbeat music] Okay, kitchen table takeaway. How do you protect yourself when fuel prices go crazy? Number one, own a piece of the thing that's costing you.
• 8:26
  A lot of people hold energy companies or pipeline funds in a retirement account. When fuel prices spike, those tend to do better. So you're not just paying at the pump, you're on the other side of it.
• 8:38
  Number two, watch out for variable rate debt. When inflation runs hot, rates go up. If your credit card or loan rate floats, your payment floats with it.
• 8:48
  Lock in a fixed rate if you can, or pay down the floating stuff first. Number three, don't keep all your long-term money sitting in cash earning nothing.
• 8:58
  If inflation is a hidden tax, a dead savings account is just agreeing to get poorer. Real estate, solid companies, and some people like gold for the long haul. Spread it out.
• 9:09
  Check the fees, shop around, and talk to somebody you trust. Not financial advice, just common sense. That's the show, Savannah. That's the show.
• 9:18
  And if you love a good, what really happened, there's a guide for that in the vault. Our digital library. It's called The Biggest Conspiracy Theories in American History. 11 of them.
• 9:30
  The official story, the theory, and a score for how believable each side really is. Five bucks. Less than a gallon of diesel. Sadly true.
• 9:39
  Plus, the free newsletter every Sunday goes deeper on all of it, with every source. Links are in the description. And Savannah, you can take the hat off now. Never. I'm Savannah. I'm Cole. Stay sharp. And stay over it.
• 9:53
  [upbeat music] You've been listening to Common Sense from RedState Finance. If this made you think, share it with one person who needs to hear it. Get the free Common Sense newsletter every Sunday at redstatefinance.com.
• 10:08
  Grab a guide from the vault and your gear from the RedState Finance store. And follow RedState Finance on YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and X. New episodes every Friday. Common Sense for people who think.