Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Transcript

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear the left.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What is going on?
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Everybody? We are back talking some fights. One week off,
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: now we're back with a fight night card. But man,
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: I think this is one of the better fight night
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: cards you can draw. Drop real life and DFS fourteen Fights, Houston, Texas. Yeah,
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: live crowd. I actually went to a fight in Houston
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: a couple of years back. Was a lot of fun.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: It was h Whittaker Atasania.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: That fight.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: That fight itself was it was all right. It wasn't
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: the It was Winnker out Asagnia too. Derek Lewis was
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: on the card. I don't know, was fortunate enough to
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: be in a suite, so a lot of boots was going.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Usually don't remember the fights as much when I'm in
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: a suite versus down below. Drinks blow a little more,
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: a lot cheaper aka free. But yeah, I'm really pumped
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: for this fourteen fights. Ten of the fourteen are expected
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: to finish. I think we see some high scores, loaded
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: mid tier Fluffy, Anthony Hernandez in the main event. One
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: of the best DFS guys around Comaine, Jeff Neil, Eurosmeatic.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: I mean there's bangers on, bangers on this card.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: I'm super pumped. Five pm Eastern, bringing you in, Bringing
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: you in, Big Marley. How was your week off and
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: what do you think of this card?
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: It is good, I mean probably earlier. I didn't really
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: need a refresher yet, but it was nice. I guess
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: hung out with the family a little bit more. I
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: got some rooms painted in the house. But I'm ready
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: for some fights already, and we got a really high
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: paced main event, so I'll looking forward to this one.
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: You said ten of them expected in inside the distance,
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: and one of those four that are not is the
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: main event, which you almost have to be all in
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: on as well.
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I'm expecting some high scores this week.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no you, that's the broad slet over you for me.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Ten of the fourteen expected to finish, one of them
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: is the main event that's not, and that's a phenomenal fight,
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: which leads us with three fights that aren't supposed to finish, and.
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: That I lose you.
• 2:26
  Speaker 6: You're frozen out. I'm back now, But that's not good.
• 2:33
  Speaker 6: That's not good. That hasn't happened yet.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know what this is my second show back,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: all right, fingers crossed, everything's good.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: Sorry, big Marley. He's I scared myself. I know I
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: scared you. So fingers cross. Everything's good. I mean the
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: routers right in my in my room, so I don't know.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: What's going on. Right, we're back.
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: You weren't lagging at all. It just stopped and it
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: looks like a hopefully we're okay.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: Oh fuck, you're good.
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: You're good, You're good. Let's let's get into.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: It all right.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I brought slate ten of the fourteen not
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: supposed to finish the one one of them is the
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: main event.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: That's a really good fight.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: So I think you're gonna need probably one hundred plus
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: with almost all of your spots or at least close
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: to it mid tiers loaded. I think even in the
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: seven case, you should be hunting with dogs that have upside,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: because I do think some are barking a lot of
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: close odds on this fight and a lot of big
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: expected inside the distance props. I'm scared about my WiFi. Now,
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: any broad slate for you? Or should we go fight
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: by a fight right away?
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah? I'm ready to run. Let's get it all right.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: I do first of all, I do want to say,
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: and I'm going to remind people at the end if
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: people come in later, but shout out to Lazy Lopez
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: in the discord hit us up. Wanted to give two
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: monthly core packages so you do get access to the
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: Discord and sabersim with that ninety nine dollars in value.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: He bought those and wants to pay it forward to
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: two people. Always in the Discord. He drops his fandal
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: projection sometimes in there as well. Just really really generous
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: stuff from Lopez. He wanted to stay in anonymous me
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: and Big Marley's dms are closed, so he had to
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: put it out there in the public.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: I want to give him a shout out though. That
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: is very very nice of him.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: So two people by the end of the show will
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: have a monthly access, and you can also get in
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: as low as nine dollars for the day or five
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: days for nineteen dollars. Join the Nation. All you got
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: to go is above join the ship nation dot com.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Join the Nation and then you'll see daily pass, five
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: day pass. There's monthly all access, but if you want
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: to give us a try and you haven't already, I
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: think the five days for nineteen dollars is best.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Gets the Discord gets sabers.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: And we got some NBA going on right now, NHL going,
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: PGA going on showdown stuff, of course, MMA, and NASCAR.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I already said Nascar.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: I don't think I did, but yeah, big prizes, a
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: lot of money to be made. We got you covered
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: in all those sports and the best community around, so we.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Will give those away a little later.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: We'll come up with something, do something, so it's random
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: and fair for everyone, all right. First fight of the night,
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: the biggest, favorite, highest price fighter on the slates, Carly
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Judics minus eight hundred taken on Juliana Miller plus five
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: point fifty minus two hundred for this fight to finish,
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: Judas minus won eighty five inside the distance, Miller plus
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: one thousand. Judas opened minus three to fifty, took tons
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: of money now minus eight hundred. She opened minus won
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: sixty five inside the distance now minus won eighty five.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: And I don't think ownership's gonna really get there. So yeah,
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: what's your take on this fight Judics and Miller.
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's it's tough for dfs just because of
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: that ninety seven hundred dollars price tag, but I do
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: expect Judea's to just have a big edge on the feet.
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: She's gonna triple up Miller and the strikes, and she
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: could land enough strikes to put Miller out really in
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: any round. So Miller, on the other hand, is gonna
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: have to wrestle in this fight. She's gonna have to
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: land take downs and keep top control time. And if
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: she wins, I expect her to score well over a
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: ten X score, possibly over like eighty. But minus eight
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: hundred for Judy's doesn't give me a whole lot of
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: hope on the Miller side, so I really don't want
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: to play her. But I'm also not against it if
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: you're trying to hit that solo hundred k because I
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: think the line is a little bit wide on this one.
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: I don't know that we should give Judy's this much credit,
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: but she's going to have She should look like a
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: minus seven hundred if it stays on the feet anyways,
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: and she's very high paced. She's coming off of two
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: TKO wins, so she can definitely put up a score
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: that can compete even with that ninety seven hundred dollars salary.
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: But if she gets taken down in the first round,
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: and grind it out for like three or four minutes.
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: Is it over four at that point? I mean I
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: think it might be. So I'm not going to be
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: too high on judcither. I have a hard time thinking
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: I'm going to be able to afford a whole lot
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: of ninety seven hundred.
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: But I think we can drop.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: Down to the people below her and get just as good,
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: if not better, of a score. So I'm picking Judy's
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: to win, but probably mostly a pass for me on
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: the DFS side.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: First, before I get into my breakdown, shout out, Y said,
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: shout out GF. I'm lacking you guys always in here
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: saying hi. I always try and say hi to the
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: people watching live. I know many watch play back. We
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: appreciate everyone ultra in here as well. Cheers to you.
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: Happy to see a lot of people back. I have
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: a little different take. I guess I'm definitely gonna be
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: playing some Carly Judeze. I think she's gonna be twenty percent,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: eighteen percent, seventeen something like that. And if you see
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: on the stone, this is a three fight sample one
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: day Ina White Contenor Series two UFC fights, ten point
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: seven three significant strikes per minute.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Juliana Miller is very hittable.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: I'm expecting a high paced fight, and now Judas is
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: minus one eighty five to finish with that ten point
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: seven three significant strikes per minute. In her UFC win,
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: she scored one oh two point five one oh seven
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: point three. By no means is that guaranteed to be optimal,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: but eighteen percent if I get in one oh seven
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: to start the card, I like it. And part of
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: the reason why I'm interested in Judice is I think
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: this is a card where a lot of dogs will
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: be barking because I a lot of closely line fights,
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: and I think there's a lot of upside in the
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: lower tier, and then there's a ton of upside in
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: the mid mid tier. Peiro Reese minus three twenty five
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: to finish, le Al new Chidi minus six hundred to finish,
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: ode Osbourne Ida Reese minus won twenty five to finish.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: I thought we had one more. Yeah, Brian mount Soriano
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: minus two zero five to finish. All those mid tier
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: fights expected to finish. You can go fluffy Judeese and
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: then go lower tier mid tier, and I do think
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: that is a path on this late So I'm definitely
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: gonna play Judice. I will not play any Juliana Miller.
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: If she beats me, she beats me. I think there's
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: plenty of live dogs on this card. If she wins,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: it's through wrestling, so she has upside. But I usually
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: don't take dogs that are minus three fifty to not
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: minus eight hundred. That's a lot of steam going against
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: Jude's I think picks her apart eventually gets a KO.
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: I think there's one hundred plus point upside in this
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: fight for Judas, and I will take that at relatively
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: low ownership since the mid tier is strong and the
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: dogs are strong. So yeah, I'm definitely gonna play some
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: Judasa started off in a contrarian minus eight hundred. The
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: next biggest favorite on the card minus four hundred is
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: a little appealing to me.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: All right, we'll keep it rolling to the second biggest
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: favorites on the card. Yadier. How do you say his
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: name again? I know I butchered it last name.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: I have no idea I was gonna say what you said,
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah something.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Yadir Dvaye. It sounds right. He was in the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Let me say this taking on Jordan Levitt.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: Yadier minus four hundred eleven plus three hundred minus two
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: to fifty for this fight to finish, Yadier minus one
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: seventy inside the distance Levitt plus five to fifty. So
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: many will probably remember Yadier was fighting Isaac Dulgarian last fight,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: and this is when the line just got absolutely steamed,
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: like an hour before the fight, thirty minutes before and then,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: I mean it looked like Dulgarian through the fight. Essentially,
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: who knows Calgary in has since been released. They're definitely
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: looking into stuff. It looked really really fishy. People were
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: breaking it down, like when he Yady he took his
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: back like he was going the wrong way, he was
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: going into the chow just absolutely dog walked him.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, he looked phenomenal.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: But did Dulgarian throw the fight or was yadiir Just
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: on another level, I'm kind of leading Dougary might have
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: threw that fight with all the money that came in.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: It seems suspicious. With that being said, I think both
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: can be true.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: Dulgarian could have thrown the fight and Yadier could still
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: be that dude looked really really good on the mat.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: Also is taking on a primary grappler, though in Jordan Levitt.
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: So here's to see how this one goes. How you
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: think does YadA keep it on the feet because Levit's
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: cheeks there, or does the Ada just show those levels
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: on the mat.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: And dominates them? So what do you see in this one?
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I just think Delvaya is just way better than Levit.
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: I think he's better everywhere, and I do think that
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: both things are true. In that last fight, I actually
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: picked Alvia to beat Doulgarian before all that shit happened,
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: But I think Doulgarian through that fight.
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: But in this one, I mean I.
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: Would pick Dolgarian over Levit all to be honest with you.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: So I just think it's a different level. On the grappling.
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: I do think it's gonna end up on the ground.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: Levitt is gonna have to grapple himself. That's really all
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: he's got, and he's decent. If he could get top control,
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: maybe Levit could have some success here. But I just
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: think that Delvilla is just gonna be better everywhere. He's
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: gonna be the one dictating where the fight takes place.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: If it's standing, I think he dominates him, and I
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: think he's gonna be the one that's better and more
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: dangerous on the ground.
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: So give me de Villa.
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know how much I want him in DFS,
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: but I know I don't want Levit, so it's gonna
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: be de Ville or Pass.
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: It's how much can I afford. Then I'm cool with it.
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: I'm also cool with if I have three hundred just
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: taking him instead of Judeese, but with Jud's being low owned,
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: I don't even know that we need to do that,
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: So I'm also fine if I have three hundred dollars
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: in a del Ville lineup, just duplicate it. Throw in
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: Jude's maybe the opposite of what we usually talk about. U. Yeah,
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: give me de Ville to probably dominate.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I don't mind.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: Like I think Judice and Yai at the end of
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: the day, I wouldn't be surprised that either was on
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: the optimal YAH day has a lot of grappling wrestling upside.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Both are heavily favored.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: To finish the fight, and I don't think Yaday is
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: gonna be too highly owned either. With Fluffy Hernandez, he's
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: just gonna be so popular ninety one hundred. Then I think, yeah,
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: maybe some go Yadie fluffy a little ago. Jude's fluffy
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: Smith fluffy. But yeah, if like, if you're playing Sean Strickland,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: then it's a lot easier to play Yadya. But again,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: I'm totally good. There's a lot enough money on the card.
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: Ninety four hundred yad yea ninety one hundred fluffy. Figure
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: out the rest. Just like I said about Judice, I
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: am final leaving the three hundred two from Judeze down
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: to Yadaya. I don't know about Levit man, he like
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: you can see minus three eighty on Monday, now it's
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: minus four hundred. If he wins, like you think it's
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: through the ground, hey, like reversals top control, Like I mean,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I Levit ain't. I was striking nobody. I mean it's
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: all he does is throw kicks. So if he does win,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: I mean I think he has to score. It might
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: be a ver Ursul's top control. Maybe Yadia gases and
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: he's gonna be super low owned. So I hate the
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: lower tier, like low low, low tier. I'm debating getting
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: a little at least keeping him in my pool, just
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: because I mean his path I think's on the map.
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'm just not a Levit guy at all.
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: I don't rather take much chances on Miller and get
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: less dude, to be honest with you, And the line
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: moved more than that. I got del Viaje at minus
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: three twenty five on Sunday. Uh so almost moved a
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: dollar or something.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, I put these up.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: So Yadia opened minus six hundred February six, uh an
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: hour later, not even thirty minutes later, was down to
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: minus three ten, and then some money came in on Yadia.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: Then it went back to the Levitt side.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: He got all the way down to minus two sixty
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: five last week and then he's taking money sent so
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: good amount of line movement on it minus six hundred,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: and then it went down and then he has taken
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: some money recently. So yeah, by no means like there's
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: a lot of good dogs on this card. In my opinion,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: Levitt Miller aren't ones. I'm getting too too much. But
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: if I got a little Levit, I think I'd be fine,
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: just because if he wins, I think it does come
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: on the mat. Since again he has no hands whatsoever,
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: We'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card Gen
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: Paul minus two p oh five, making his UFC debut
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: against Phil Rowe plus one seventy five minus won seventy
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: for this fight to finish Geen Paul plus one thirty
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: five inside the distance row plus two fifty five.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, take it away. I see you have a three
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: star and it makes sense. But the fights so minus
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: one seventy to finish will be relatively low owned. What
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: do you see? So? Yeah?
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: I mean I could be wrong on this one, but
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: this Lebo's kneani guy. He in my opinion, I think
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: he started out as like a jiu jitsu guy, primarily grappler. Yeah,
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: and then he started striking more, got a I think
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: he got a knockout, and then he's coming off a
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: head kick knockout on dance on Dana Wat's Contender series.
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: So this guy's not gonna be looking to grapple anymore.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be falling in love with his strike and
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: I think we might get a striking match here. And
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: that's what makes me not like it, especially him at
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: eighty eight hundred dollars, because I don't know that he's
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: gonna knock out Phil Rowe. Phil Rowe's pretty dangerous and
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: he's good at range. I think Phil Roe could win
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: this fight if it's a striking fight, especially at range.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: I would want Lebo's Niani to go out there and wrestle.
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: If I'm paying eighty eight hundred dollars or get a
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: finish will be fine as well.
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: But I don't know.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: I feel like this one could go the distance. Phil
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: Roe's never won a decision, so you kind of gotta
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: lean Lebo's Nioni if that's the case. So I put
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: it as a three and three because I'm not as
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: confident as the line is. This guy coming in on
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: his debut, He's gonna be nervous out there, and I
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: just think that it should be a little bit closer
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: to a pick online. So my preferred play by the
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: end of the day, I mean, when it's all said done,
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: could end up being Row in this one.
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: I might switch it.
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: To four stars Row, two stars, Lobosnionia. I'll see what
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: happens when I start building my lineup and who I
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: end up with more of. But I think I'm just
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: closer to, you know, like a two or three star
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: than I am a four or five on this one,
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: because I don't think it's gonna end up finishing. Give
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: me lebos NIONI to just be the higher paced striker,
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: maybe mix in a takedown or two and win a decision,
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: just not score too high.
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: I'm indifferent to this fight too, in the sense of
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: like again, I think we need one hundred plus like
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: probably an eighty eight hundred. We need big scores up top,
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: but ownership is gonna be relatively low owned on both guys.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: It's gonna get owned, but not too much on this
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: fourteen fight card. Man, I know I'm playing Phil Row
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: and Phil Rowe is my preferred side. Like you said,
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: all eleven of his wins have been by finish. He's
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: four and four in the UFC, like both Gene Paul
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: is making his UFC debut. I do think if I'm wrong,
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: if he doesn't wrestle, there's no way Gene Paul gets there.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: But I do think like if he has nerves, he
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: feels Phil Roe's power to start, he's like, oh shit,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: I'm going to panic wrestle, I'm gonna chain wrestle. And
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: Phil Row is fifty percent takedown defense. So if he
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: does wrestle, more of his wins have been by submission
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: than ko the books see it right now plus two
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: to fifty to win by sub plus four hundred to
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: win by KO for Gene Paul. So if he does
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: get a submission, we're showing like twenty two percent, twenty
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: three percent, eighty eight hundred, he'll be relatively low owned
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: by no means. So I want to play Fluffy, take
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: Fluffy out and go Gene Paul. But you can go
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: Fluffy Gen Paul and then leave a couple hundred pretty easy.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: I do think he might wrestle plus two to fifty
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: by subs good. This fight's minus one seventy to finish.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: Ownerships relatively in check. Yeah, I mean this card's just
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: so good on most cards, Like for me, this would
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: be like a four star on this card. Because he's
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: competing with would I think to be so many high scores.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: I'm a little more scared with it. And that's why
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: Phil Rose's my preferred play, because if he does win,
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: it's more than likely by finish. I mean, he just
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: he's low volume, he doesn't wrestle. It's hard to see
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: him winning a decision in this one because of his output.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: But yeah, Phil Rowe has good cardio. He's a dog,
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: he is power. Who knows what Gene Paul is making
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: his UFC debuts, so Phil Rose my preferred side for
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: the fourteen hundred savings plus two to fifty five inside
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: the distance is definitely good for him. But I am
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: going to play some Gen Paul myself at relatively low
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: ownership and hope he does wrestle for a fight that's
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: minus one seventy to finish. One note, this fight open
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: minus two fifty Gene Paul. Now it's minus two to five,
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: so money has came in on the Phil Roe side
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: before we go to the next fight. I just want
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: to remind a couple of people. More people joined, we
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: will be towards the end. Giving away two monthly memberships
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: includes sabers him includes access to the discord on our
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: man Lazy Lopez in the discord, so shout out to him.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Paying it forward.
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: Two member or two people in chat right now will
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: get ship in Nation Core members again. Sabersim comes with it, discord,
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: it comes with it access to all of our sports
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: up above. You can see right now PGA is going on,
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: NBA is going on on MMA. Of course, NASCAR, NHL
• 19:03
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• 19:06
  Speaker 3: man Lazy Lopez and we appreciate the like button and
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• 19:10
  Speaker 2: It helps us out a ton.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: Next fight, Uh, pretty much a pick up minus one
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: fifteen re means Brahimage minus one oh five Poonahlli Soriano
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: minus two twenty for this fight to finish, Brahimage minus
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: one ten. Inside of this in Soriano plus three fifteen.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: You can see on Monday when I put up the odds,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: Brahimage is minus one thirty. Now it's minus one fifteen.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: With that being said, on February sixth, when the line opened,
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: Brahimage was minus or excuse me, Soriano was minus one
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: seventy one. Brahimage was plus one forty six. So Soriano
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: opens a good sized favorite. Brahimaj then takes a lot
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: of money to minus one thirty. Now we see some
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: buyback on the Soriano side. Also worth noting this fight
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: opened minus one ninety to finish. Now it is minus
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: two twenty, so money coming in on Brahimage's start. Sorry
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: a buyback money coming in on the under A mid
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: tier fights.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I see you have more stars on Soriano
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: than Brahimage. How do you see it? Mute? Yeah, I mute.
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: Be my Dog's remarking, Yeah, I like this fight definitely
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: in DFS, but I'm gonna be on the Soriano side.
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: I think both sides make a lot of sense. Brian
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: Midge is a good and dangerous and aggressive grappler when
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: he wants to be. He could go out there, look
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: for a takedown, fast, and just kind of dominate. He's
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: also had a couple of knockouts lately too, But it's
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: this is the same guy that came in plus one
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: p fifty five against Mickey gall So I think that
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: the line is getting a little out of hand at
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: this point.
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: I think Soriano should be the favorite.
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: He's had some bad moments in the UFC, and I
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: still think that's kind of playing into it. But he's
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: on a three fight win streak himself. And in DFS,
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: when this guy wins, man, he's got.
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: Dang, I don't have it open.
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: Let's see here, He's got one hundred and eighteen, one
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: hundred and thirty, one hundred and sixty nine, one hundred
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: and twenty three, and one hundred and twenty seven. We're
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: getting this guy at an underdog price. And Briy Madge
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: is the type of guy who if things aren't going well,
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: he's he's kind of okay, just accepting being on his back.
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: He's not a dangerous grappler like Charles Oliver, where he's
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: gonna be throwing up triangles that you gotta worry about.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: It's when he is the aggressor that he's dangerous. And
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: if Soriano is the wrestler in this one, I think
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: Briy Mogh could be on his back for twelve minutes
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: in this fight. I also think Soriano is the more
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: dangerous striker in this one, probably the better overall striker,
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: So I think the wrong guy's favored in this one.
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: Soriano's probably gonna be my second highest own play on
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: the card out there.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Damn all right.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: I'dn't I lean Brahimage more than Soriano, And.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: The reason I did was because I thought he had
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I think he has more.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: Upside Like the inside the distance seeing minus won ten
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: if for Brahimage inside the distance and plus three fifteen
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: for Soriano scared me a little bit, Like, all right,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: how much do you think like Brian Madge is nast
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: Like he is a good submission guy if he's on
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: top or he grabs a neck. He does have power
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: as a Soriano as well, Like I just like Soriano,
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: you see one point eight three takedowns per fifteen.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: He wrestled.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: He has a wrestling background, but man, the cardio on him, Like,
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: I don't think he can really sustain wrestling for fifteen
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: minutes if it's on the feet, Like you think he's
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: knocking him out in the first or second round, or
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: you do think he puts on the wrestling shoes and
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: he's not worried about Brian Madge's submission game, and.
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: I definitely think he could knock him out.
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: By the way I'm picking the fight to go down
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: is Soriano wrestles wins two or three rounds on the cards.
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: And I also think if he slows down, Brian mas
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: not really the type of guy who's gonna step it
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: up in the third round. I think it would take
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: one more takedown and then you get a hangout in
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: top control to the fight's over.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: I do think I think Brian Madge is higher rowned,
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: and I was gonna say by a decent it really
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: I think depends on where this line goes by Saturday,
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: but I think people will look at that minus one
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: ten inside the distance the plus three fifteen for Soriano.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: Brahimage on a three fight winning streak. He was an
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: underdog in all three.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Let me get the the odds, like you said the
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Mickey golfight, he was plus one fifty five.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Obviously, that gall's not great. He was plus three twenty
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: against Billy Goff and plus two forty against Austin Vanderford.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: Those are pretty solid wins. Vanderford, also a wrestler himself,
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: caught him, uh grab snatched his neck. I just think
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Brimage is dangerous and he's coming into his own a
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: little bit. So we're gonna differ on this fight. But
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: because I do think Soriano's less owned than Brahimage, and
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: I think the mid tier is so loaded by no
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: means is brihi Image is gonna be chalk But I
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: do think he'll be relatively high owned, and you can
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: get some leverage on the Soriano side with a your
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: appeal on him in fluffy lineups and chalkier stuff. Maybe
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: I'll get a little more Soriano than I initially did
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: and tail you a little bit. But I still like
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Brahimage more. But I do think he is higher on
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, I definitely will be
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: keeping a close eye on where this line goes, because
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: it's been moving around quite a bit.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: It looks like pick him right now.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, DraftKings minus one ten apiece minus one.
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: Well minus one fifteen minus one o five.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: But yeah, same thing, the favorite going into it.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if I mean, if it does get to like
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty plus one ten, it really come down
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: to ownership for me, Like I still think Brian Madge
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: has more first round upside.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: Let's see the first round props.
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: Well owners I mean, if if Soriano, let's say, is
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty, I'm gonna move ownership to like thirty
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: something percent Soriano and I'll bump down Rahimage.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: I still don't know if you would really get there.
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: Maybe, but like the mid tier, like we talked about
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: Pereira Reese, people are gonna go to this fight before
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: that fight, not the Osborne Idoris fight. Probably lel Cheedy
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: like this fight and Pereira Reese, like these two right here,
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: are gonna take up more mid tier ownership. So even
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: if Soriano's a favorite seventy nine hundred, I think it's
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: gonna stay in the twenties if probably made closes minus
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: one thirty five, Like, I could see Soriano being like
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: nineteen percent or something like that and Brahimaje being like
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: twenty eight percent the wrong one probably Like yeah, yeah,
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, if he's optimal you have you'll definitely have
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: a good shot to to win some cheese. Briimage run
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: one plus two forty Soriano plus six hundred. Brian Madge
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: definitely has up to the finishing upside of Cord of
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: the books. He's done it as of late.
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: I'm not guy I like Brian wise, I usually pick him.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: I've liked him since he came into the UC, so
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: I'm not like biased in this one. I just think
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: personally Soriano should be like minus one fifty plus.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: You have good reads on these.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: I'm not a Brian Madge guy because he costs me
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: a lot of stacks against court Magee back in the day,
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: I had way too much money brought. Yeah, I'd bean
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: way way too much money on him. So yeah, zero
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: bias in this fight. I just I'm hunting for upside.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: I think that's the main thing. But you didn't make
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: a good point when Soriano wins. He does show he
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: can get upside. We'll see, We'll see in that one.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: It's it's good to differ again. I might have a
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: little more Soriano than I initially did after talking to you.
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: Let's keep it rolling to the most likely fight to
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: go the distance on the car, Jocelyn Edwards taking on
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: Nor Cornhole a rematch Edwards minus three fifteen Cornall plus
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: two sixty five plus one ninety for this fight to
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: finish Edwards plus two to fifty inside the distance Cornall
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: plus six hundred. So this is a rematch from twenty
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: twenty three and in my opinion, one of the bigger
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: robberies that nobody talks about. How I mean it was
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: in enemy territory in France. How Cornhole won that fight
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: is beyond me. Jocelyn Edwards landed let me get this right,
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: five of eight takedowns for nine minutes of control, got
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: a take down in every round, and lost the fight.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: Absolutely no clue, but man. Jocelyn's looks like a different
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: beast as of late, finishing multiple her last three fights,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: two first round KOs, in the third round submission, and
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: scored one ten, one oh nine and one nineteen in
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: those fights. If she did win the Cornall fight, it
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: would have been eighty nine points. But I'm gonna play
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: some Jocelyn. She's gonna be super low owned because it's
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: the most likely fight to go the distance. She's ninety
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: two hundred, Fluffy's one hundred less. Plenty of good upper
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: tier fights, but man like Jocen open plus three hundred
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: to finish now plus two to fifty. Jocelyn finished her
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: last three fights. I do think she's probably a little
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: pissed about that last robbery. Now she's in the States
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: in Houston. Judges still suck, But I just think she's better.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: She's looked really good or striking. I think she can't
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: mix in wrestling like she did last fight. I think
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: she's a woman on a mission and does have a
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: little bad blood from that loss. If Jocelyn wins and
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: scores one oh six or one oh five, I mean
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: she might be fourteen percent or something like that. And
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: that's something Instead of playing a Juliana Miller, even like
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: a Jordan Lovett, I'd be more declined to play at
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: Joscelyn Edwards can still play Fluffy, can go mid tier
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: and something like that. So yeah, I'm definitely gonna play
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: some Jocelyn. I'm not gonna play Nora Cornall, even if
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: she wins.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: Seventy points, Like, I just don't really see it. There's
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: enough live dogs in this car with upside for me,
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: So what do you see?
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah? I think Edward's gonna be better everywhere.
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: I don't love the ninety two hundred dollars price tag though,
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: so that's why I have it as a one star.
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: I mean, she didn't come into the UFC as a
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: very good fighter in my opinion, but she's grown a ton.
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: I feel like she started growing her ass, and her
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: ass grewer confidence in her confidence grewer skills, man, because
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: it kind of it kind of grew with the.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: What about what about her? What about her training with Valentina?
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: You don't think that had anything to do with it?
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe something I guess hurts that in the mirror.
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: Maybe they correlated.
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but I just think, even if it
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: was a striking match, give me Edwards to be the
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: better striker, the more dangerous striker. But she has wrestling
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: now too, so I'm I'm pretty high on Edwards at
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: this point. I think she could make it run at
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: this point, and if she's gonna be like ten percent,
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: I'm not against getting a little bit of Edwards. And
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: if I do end up playing Edwards, I'll move it
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: up to a two star fight ranking.
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: If I have a one star, it's a full fade
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: for me. I'm not gonna use either side.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: Uh And if I was making a hundred and fifty,
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: it's usually that case for me as well. On a
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: one star, I'm pretty rare with those, but this is
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: one I'm not gonna be using. I'm gonna pick Edwards
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: to win, and I think she's gonna score around ninety
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: points and that's probably not gonna cut it on this card.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I agree ninety won't cut it. I don't.
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think so. I'd be very shocked if ninety
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: from Jocelyn got it done. But I think she has
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: one hundred plus point upside like she has the last
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: three fights, so I will be getting some or man
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: sits or sights. First of all, shout out Mike Spencer,
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Big drinks. Hope you guys are doing well. It says,
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: thanks for analysis. A strategy question. Seems like the last
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: two to three slates were more perspective than this one.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you've meant predictive, but how much
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: leverage on underdogs you recommend for differentiation, I don't think
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: like the leverage on certain fighters is what gets you different.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: And I think each individual lineup is needs to tell
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: its own story. So in each lineup we have fourteen fights,
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: if we keep all fourteen, ownership is going to be
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: way more spread out. There's more combinations than a twelve
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: fight card like we're used to, so you don't have
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: to get as crazy by any means. One spot at
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: Jocelyn Edwards all chalk that got you different. You leave
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: three hundred that gets you different. So assuming we keep fourteen,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: that's a lot of fights, more combinations, more spread out ownership.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't worry about that as much. But each individual
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: lineup should kind of tell a story.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: If you have zero dollars left and you're playing cheaty
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: and the all fight Praier, Reese Fight Fluffy Hernandez brahimage, Okay,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: then you're getting.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: A little too chalky. But definitely look at our ownership
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: on the site. Sabersim can help out with that as well.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: And then like leverage to each underdog. The more I've
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: played MMA, this fight, this card, or this sport is
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: so high variance, not only like if your fighters lose,
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: you're pretty much drawing dead.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: They can win and the judges can screw you. It
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: can be a nutshot and the guy can quit. Like
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: there's just so many variables in the thing. I don't
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: try and now take like major major stands on stuff personally.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: So if I have like twenty percent overweight to someone
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: in the field, sometimes I manually bump that down to
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: like fifteen or fourteen. I kind of want my individual
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: lineups to be good, and then I diversify more that way,
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: because I mean so many Like MMA is a duke
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: sport essentially, if you're not taken first, you're not you're
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: almost losing money. If you're max entering, you you're not
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: making much because like six like last weight last week Darts,
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: he won with five people, twenty five k. Second place
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: might have been like one thousand dollars because they're splitting
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: the top five prizes in such a top heavy tournament.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: If Venisse, if Olivara won that fight, I would have
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: won with eight people sixteen thousand, and then the next
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: highest would have been like seven hundred bucks. So you're
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: only playing for one lineup essentially to get first. So
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: I like spreading it out a little more and I
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: hope that answers your question. Do you have any thoughts
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: on that before we get to the next fight.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: No.
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: I kind of just look at it as like I
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: want to be overweight to these fighters, and I don't
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: care how much it is.
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: Like if I if I finished my lineup so.
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: I'm underweight to somebody I want to be overweight on,
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: then I'll change it. But if I'm thirty five percent
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: over the field this week on Soriano, I'm gonna rock
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: with that. So I'm cool with those those big, big
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: leverage spots, I guess, but it can burn you. I
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: mean you got to be ready to be burned in
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: those situations. But it's also like that feeling of a
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: hitting is it's just so much better going into the
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: rest of the card when you're like, oh shit, we're sitting,
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: we're live now, now what do we need?
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: And I feel like that's gonna be my Soriano spot.
• 32:58
  Speaker 5: I have one re I feel like I have on.
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: The last card or recently where I was I only
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: had a couple lineups, but I had someone early that
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: smashed right away and I was like, oh, we're sitting
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: pretty here, And I mean I didn't win too big.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: I don't remember how it ended up for me, but
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: it could work and still not work out for you.
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: But at the same time, if you're making limited lineups,
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: it helps at least, you know, mint cash, you can
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: at least profit, whether I mean one hundred and fifty
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: you need to win, but if you're playing five lineups,
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: you might cash three of them, and if you win
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: thirty bucks, maybe you're happy with your night. So I
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: do think it also helps in those situations.
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and everyone's different, Like I kind of knew Big
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Marley's answer if you go Big Marley and I talked
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: last year More Education, Mma Tough for an hour and
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: a half answer questions, went through a lot of stuff,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: and yeah, this is a spot where we differ. He's
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: fine making big stands, sometimes full fading locking. I definitely
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: got more conservative as I followed some pros like she
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: it's like rio stuff like that where I think I
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: have been too tight in the past and let my
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: I know, fights take over where Yeah, I mean I
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: kind of just need to trust the Vegas odds and
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: when you win, how much do you win? Is kind
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: of the way I'm trying to play MMA more so.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Hope that helps just find what works for you. There's
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: no right or wrong answer in that.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: We'll keep it rolling.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Next fight on the card we have all been Korea
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: taking on Luis Geredelle minus four hundred Korea plus three hundred,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: Louis plus one fifteen for this fight to finish, Korea
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: plus one sixty inside the distance, Luis.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: Plus five sixty five take it away.
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gonna be just Chorea for me. I think
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: he is better everywhere. I think this is gonna be
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: a striking match. But Gruley's just has not been impressive
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: to me. I just don't think he's high enough volume.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: He's got power, but he hasn't been knocking anybody out.
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: And I think this Korea guy is gonna be hard
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: to hit. He kind of reminds me of like a
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: Mike a use of salal with the little Josh Van too.
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: He's good on his feet, he's quick with his striking,
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: and I think he can make some noise in the UFC.
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: In the UFC, but at nine k in a striking match,
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: and it's plus one oh five and inside the distance, I'm
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: just not really too interested in it.
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: My way is gonna be Korea or pass.
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: But the pass is where I'm really gonna be leaning
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: in this one. I would only end up with a Koreya,
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: I would bet. If I'm building my lineup, I already
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: got Hernandez in there, I'm getting other mid range people,
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: and then I can't get up to people above him.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: That's where I end up at his nine k I'm
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: fine with something like that, but ultimately I'm trying to
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: fad this fight.
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you said, Corey kind of like josh Van. Training
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: partners with Joshua Van is Korea. He's only twenty seven
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: years old, Korea can't wrestle a little bit, though. I
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if he makes in and a takedown
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: or two. I agree with you. I just think he's
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: better everywhere. He's gonna be pretty low owned right next
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: to Fluffy.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: In that range.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: I'm good playing some Korea open plus one eighty five
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: to finish now plus one sixty. If you're josh Van's partner,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: that means you know to throw volume. You know you
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: have cardio and he has a little wrestling upside. I
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: think he is a little interesting, but yeah, gun to
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: my head, probably not optimal. But again, that's kind of
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: like in chalk your lineups. I'm I like getting more
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: different in the upper tier this week than I do
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: the lower tier because I think it is clear which
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: underdogs do have upside.
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: And I think I might have a little bit of
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: recency bias with that Korea prediction. I mean, because I
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: don't know that I would have said that I was
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: that high on him going into that UFC debut, But
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: I think that UFC debut spoke a lot.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I agree. All right, we're gonna do thirty
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: one people. We're gonna do two more fights, and then
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: I'm going to say like a combination of five fights.
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna say like seven through eleven or yeah, you
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: know what we're gonna do seven seven, eight, nine, ten eleven.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: I'm thinking of one fighter, and Big Marley is gonna
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: private chat me one of those fighters completely random. So
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: seven eight, nine, ten eleven. I have a name, Big
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Marley as a name. First one to comment, only one comments.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: If you say two, you're you're excluded. But whoever gets
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: the ones right, you guys are the ones that win
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: a monthly membership on Lazy Lopez. And then we're gonna
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: get you the details to get in the discord. Get
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: over to ship innation dot com. So, uh, in two
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: fights we're gonna talk about actually three, yeah, two fights.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about the Ideris fight.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about the Leel fight, and then Big
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Marley's gonna have a name.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: I have a name. You guys get one guess? Not yet,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: what are you guys doing? Not yet? Not yet? Come on,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: I gotta listen. You gotta listen. Uh.
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: So none of those count and two fights we will uh,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: we will find out who wins. So none of all trolling.
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: Come on, man, you guys gotta listen. I should dan
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: you for that, but I won't. All right, next fight
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: on the card, we got lbi idoristicking on Oday Osbourne,
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: another mid tier. I'd expected to finish Iris minus one
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: thirty o day plus one ten minus one thirty five
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: for this fight to finish Iris plus one seventy five
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: inside the distance Oday plus two sixty five take it away.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: What do you see?
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: Another fight?
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: I'm just not too high on. I don't have a
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: real lean on this one either way. I do think
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: it's going to be a close fight, and I could
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: end up with Ode as my preferred side. I think
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: he has a decent ceiling. He comes out of the
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: gates pretty high. He's dangerous in round one. I think
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: he could finish in the first round and just be
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: a lock on the optimal lineup. But after the first
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: round I kind of think it shifts over to the
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: Ideris side. I think he will be the better wrestlers
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: as the fight moves along, and it's just not going
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: to be that high of a striking paced fight, especially
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: after the first round. So if I'm correct, I think
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: Oday wins the first round, Itterus wins the second and
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: the third, and we're not going to get a big
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: score from either. So that's what I'm hoping happens. I'm
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: gonna try to fade the fight. But if I'm if
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: i'm mmmy and I end up with either side of
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: this fight, I am okay with it. I'm not going
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: to x out that lineup just because this fight's in it.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: If that were the case, I would go and make this.
• 39:16
  Speaker 5: A one star.
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: If I end up with none of this and Emmy
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: all one star this one. But I do think I'm
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: much more interested in this fight in general than I
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: am like the Edwards fight, because it's mid range and
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: both sides do have some upside. I think that the
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: Itterus side we just haven't. I think the UFC debut
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: didn't really show what he's capable of, and then the
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: Osbourne side he's I mean, he's got a big ceiling,
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: especially if he comes out aggressive in that first round.
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: I just don't think he could put fifteen full minutes
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: together with it.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: One hundred percent agree this fight is similar to the
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: Gene Paul fight Phil Rowe in the sense of I
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: think ownership's really not going to be there, and it's
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: expected to finish and open minus one fifteen, and now
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: I'm minus one thirty five Itterus plus one seventy five
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: inside the distance O Day plus two's sixty five. Like
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: on most cards like this is a slam dunk mid
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: tier fight. This card is just so good and the
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: mid tier is so strong with leel chd Pereira zach Reize,
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: where it has to be somewhat low owned. Itterus is
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: my preferred side because I think he's gonna wrestle. Oday
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: is dangerous on the feet, and Itterus I think like
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: Oday slows down, Itterus could get six takedowns in a
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: decision win and maybe score one hundred points Oday. I
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: think I want to cap him at his round one prop,
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: which is plus five hundred sixteen point seven percent. I'm
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: right around there. I think is fine. He's dangerous early.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: He has first round knockout upside, but if he doesn't
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: win in round one, he probably slows. He doesn't have
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: as much volume, and then I'm worried in rounds two
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: and round three that he gets put on his back
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: and doesn't really score. So Itterus my preferred play because
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: he has more pass to win. I think he can
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: wrestle plus one seventy five inside the distance is good
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: and Terus plus six hundred by sub open, plus seven
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: to fifty plus three fifty by koh. He likes his
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: spinning stuff. Not a good debut. Joseph Morales, a big underdog,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: beat him and it wasn't gonna do a debut. It
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: was like the Ultimate Fighter. But UFC still thinks of
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: him pretty highly. They're giving him another chance. Mid tier
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: fight expected to finish pretty low owned good inside the
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: distance props on both sides. I do have some interest
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: in this fight, all right, next fight and then we're
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: going to do the winners, So do not do anything yet.
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: Most likely fight to finish on the card minus six
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: hundred to finish Carlos Leal minus one thirty GD plus
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: one ten again minus six hundred to finish Leal minus
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: one ten inside the distance, Chet plus one fifty Lee
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: all in round one plus two to fifty Cheat plus
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: three to fifty. I mean, what a fight? Are you
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: gonna go all in? I guess is my question? And
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: then yeah, break it down. How do you see it now?
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to go all in because I think
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: minus six hundred is too I don't think it deserves
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: a minus six hundred personally, but it's the mid range fight.
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: Of the week and if it does, then you're gonna
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: need it. So I am gonna be high on it.
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: I'm actually gonna be higher on it because of that
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: minus six hundred then I would have been.
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: Had I not seen that.
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: I really would prefer to not fade the in Chikuani side,
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: but I'd want to be underweight to the in Chikwuane side.
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: I think he is definitely live for a knockout, but
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: if he doesn't get a knockout, he's not gonna score.
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: Well, he's not a grappler.
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: He's only gonna look to strike, and he's not a
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: high paced striker where he's gonna put up one hundred
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: and ten points in a decision.
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: So I prefer the leoutside.
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: If Leal can stay conscious, I like him to be
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: the high volume striker. I like him to be the
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: better wrestler, and he should just be. He should make
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: this fight dirty. He should just get in, throw a
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: bunch of volume, don't give Cheety the range that he needs,
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: and try to avoid the big shots when they come
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: his way. And if that's the case, I like Leoal.
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: I think the line should be wider on the Leo side.
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: It was wider when I looked at this fight. It
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: was like, I want to say, he was like minus
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: one seventy five on Sunday and I thought that, look,
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: I actually thought it was it was the value side
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: of the two. So I'm probably gonna end up betting
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: Leo as well. Yeah, I'll be overweight Leal a round
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: field on in Jikwani probably cut as like a hedge
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: to my overweight on the on the leal side, but
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: I'd really prefer.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: To be underweight on ninjikwany Yeah you mentioned they all
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: open minus two sixty now all the way to minus
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: one thirty. When I see a significant line movement like that,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: it does, uh, it makes me I don't have a
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: preferred side like I truly don't like lee All. I
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: think is my pick because I look at these guys
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: very similar and I trust thee All's chin more than cheeties.
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: Geties have been cracked plenty. With that being said, it's
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: so easy to build a lee All line up droppingly
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: all down to cheaty and that's one way to get different,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: and you sacrifice no up whatsoever. So I'm really indifferent
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: for that reason. My pickley' All but not a strong
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: lean and you can get more different with Cheedi without
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: giving up anything. So that's how I see it. All right,
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: Fight seven through eleven, Pick one, Fighter go. You cannot
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: pick two, so Tim, this doesn't count any comment below.
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: Tim is right. I have big Marley's and I have mine,
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: both in a private chat. And yeah, whoever is right
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: gets two.
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: We're giving away two winners for a shoutout to Lazy
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: Lopez giving away ninety nine dollars monthly Core package include
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: SABERSIM includes discord and access to all of the sports
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: above we have. Yeah, I'm gonna monitor the comments. We'll
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: get into the next the next fight, and then I'll
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: I'll be writing it down if I see someone to win.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Next fight.
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: Michelle Prayer minus one fifty five taking on Zach Reese
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: plus one thirty five another mid tier fight heavily favored
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: to finish minus three twenty five Michelle Ferrera plus one
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: ten inside the this since Zachary Reese plus one seventy
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: five Pereyra round one plus two to twenty five, Zachary
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Reese plus three point fifty under one and a half
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: minus one twelve, I mean, another great fight. I will
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: say I'm not going to be all in on the
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: Leal or Cheety fight as well, mainly because if it's
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: a second round knockout, ninety two is good, but it
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: might not be enough on this card. We keep talking
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: with how low to the mid tier is. So I
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: don't really plan on going all in on any fight.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: If I did, it would be the main event. Take
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: it away, What do you see in this one.
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: I think it's a good DFS fight. Pereira, though, I
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: just think prayers on the on the downfall. He's looked
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: terrible in his last couple of fights, and if he's
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: not going to go out there and get some flashy knockout,
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: I just don't trust this guy. And paying eighty five
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: hundred dollars really laying juice at all against anybody that's
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: somewhat talented.
• 45:58
  Speaker 5: And dangerous, I'm really not. I'm not. I'm not in
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: this week or in on him anymore.
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: On the reside, I don't know how sold I am
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: on Reese, but he definitely flashes talent. He is dangerous
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: at times, and I think he could wrestle or strike
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: his way to a victory in this one. So my
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: preferred play is definitely going to be underdrug. I just
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: don't know how high I want to be on this one.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: Is this what do you think? Is this a five
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: star for you? I was in between a three and
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: five star. I think I could go down to a
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: three star with the thought of Pereira wins the first round,
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: Reese wins the second and or third, or finishes late
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: and maybe doesn't get too high of a score with
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: that way, but since I am on the underdog, I
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: think I have to I'm gonna be high on him
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: for sure, I just won't have too much on the
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: prayer side.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: I think this is a five star for me.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: The reason I say that is I think both guys
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: actually could shoot a takedown in this fight, and I
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: think if someone gets on top, they can do damage
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: or get a submission. Both submission prop I think it's
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: a sneaky submission fight. Pereyer open plus eight hundred by
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: sub now plus five hundred, Reese open plus eight hundred
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: by sub now plus six fifty. So I think they
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: either stand and bang, which is the more likely, or
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: someone shoots a takedown and then Pereira gases Reese like
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: catches them one of them grabs a neck. I just
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: don't really think they have fifteen minute.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: Cardio at the end of the day.
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: So probably a five star fight for me. Again, I'm
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: not going all in, but Reese is my preferred play
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: because of the savings. But I think Reese is higher
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: rowned by a decent bit maybe and Michelle Perera gets
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: a decent amount of leverage in this spot because he
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: has eight hundred more. Of the odds are pretty tight.
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: You see on Monday he was minus one sixty. Now
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: he's minus one fifty five, So it didn't change too much.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: Let's see open minus one fifty got as low as
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: minus one sixty, so I take that back. The odds
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: haven't moved too much. But the fight to finish open
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: minus two to fifty. Now it's minus three twenty five.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: Definitely a lot of line movement on the under. I
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: like this fight a lot, reesays a bunch of upside
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: At seventy seven hundred. Do think that leaves them to
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: be relatively popular, probably one of the more popular seven
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: K fighters on the card, and that gives Pereira leverage.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: Who's plus two fifty five in round one? Let me
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: just double check it out, Yeah, plus two twenty five. Like, man,
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: that's a really really good round one prop.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I see.
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: Uh, let's see that you're saying fight seven through eleven.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Literally no one got it right.
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: So I think, uh, we're gonna restart it because I
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: gave enough time the fights. I'm gonna say, uh, we're
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: gonna do fights.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: We're gonna do fights one through six.
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: Big Marley type in type in the private chat, real quick,
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: pick one, I already got one for me, do it
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: quick before they they beat us.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: All right, so you already got it.
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: We got both, I will say, so people know that
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: we're not cheating. Big Marley's was Carlos Leal and mine
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: was Oday Osbourne. In the last one seven to eleven,
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: literally not one person got it. But now fights one
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: through six, Yeah, people were saying dan Egay, which it was,
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: but now Danygay is viable. So yes, first one to
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: say that we get it right, gets it. And I
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: will say, yeah, I'm not even gonna say yet. We're
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: gonna talk about the next fight and then see if
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: people did get the winners.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: So Fights one through six, pick one, name one name
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: only if you get it right. It's completely random.
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: There's no rhyme or reason to what we're saying, just
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: trying to give away two monthly memberships. Shout out to
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: the man, Lazy Lopez. That's giving it away. All right,
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: never mind, we got both winners right here. Shout out
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: two has oh Mma Anti Delia was my pick. Shout
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: out to Tim L. Holman for Jeff Neil, which was
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: Big Marley's pick. You two are the winners. What you
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: have to do email info at chipanation dot com. Take
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: a picture of your YouTube profile so take a picture
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: of the top left saying that Tim l Holman with
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: the picture. Take a picture of Hezo MMA with this
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: and reach out saying that you won the MMA membership again,
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: take a picture so we know that it is you,
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: and you will get access ninety nine dollars core package,
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: access to the Discord, access to Sabersim, and all of
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: our content for one month courtesy of our man, Lazy Lopez. Again,
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: thank you very much, Lazy. Congrats to YouTube for getting in.
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: If you didn't win and you want to do, try
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: us out though again. You can get in as low
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: as nine dollars for the day or a better deal
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: five days for nineteen dollars, get you Discord, get you
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: saber SIM and access to all these sports above prizes.
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: There's one hundred k plus prizes and a lot of
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: sports going on right now, so definitely can make that money.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: Nineteen bucks comes out to less than three dollars. Actually, no,
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: that would be less than four ben math over here
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: today we would love to have you.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: Definitely think it is worth it to give us a try.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: All right, we'll keep it rolling.
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: Number five, Jacoby Smith taking on Josiah Harrol. We have
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: Jacoby Smith minus three ten Josiah Harrold plus two sixty
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: minus won sixty for this fight to finish. Smith minus
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: one oh five inside the distance Harold plus four fifty.
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: What a story for Josiah Harrold was supposed to fight
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: Jack Della on short notice a couple of years back.
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: Then he was getting scanned and they found out he
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: needed a brain surgery. Crazy stuff he recovered, which is
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: awesome to see. Gets another short notice fight this week.
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: It was supposed to be Jacoby Smith against Sung Co
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: Sungho Co out his co in his Harold and this
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: line's been all over the place. So Smith opened minus
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: five hundred three minutes later was minus two fifty five
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: and then lines backs bounce back and forth from minus
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: three fifty to minus two thirty five. And now Smith
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: has taken some money the past couple days. This fight
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: minus one sixty to finish. I'm excited for this one.
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: You can see on the stone Jacoby Smith, he's an
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: All American wrestler at Oklahoma State. His striking his looks
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: pretty solid. He looks dangerous, but I'm a little questioning
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: the cardio and just I Harold looks pretty good too.
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: Eleven and no two guys with the oh someone has
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: to go. How do you see this fight going?
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: I mean I think Harold looks fine. He looks like
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: a solid fighter. I just don't know where he would
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: have an edge in this fight because Jacoby Smith is
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: just gonna be a fighter. I pick a lot. He
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: looks like a good, powerful wrestler with dangerous hands as well,
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: and he can throw combinations and put up some decent
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: volume all he's on the feet. So I really like Smith.
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna pick him most of the time when he's
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: matched up against somebody in the UFC. And that's just
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: that's why I have her Harold as a one star.
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: It's nothing against him, it's just all on the Smith's side.
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: And I don't know how high I want to move
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: this fight ranking because I don't know how much Smith
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna end up with. But it could go any
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: it could go three, four or five, depending on how
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: much I end up with. I do like Smith because
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: he could get the first round knockout or he could
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: land a lot a lot of takedowns. I'm kind of
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: just hoping that he doesn't knock this guy out because
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: he had brain surgery and I don't know that he's
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: gonna land three rounds worth of a lot of takedowns,
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: So I'm kind of hoping Smith wins and scores ninety
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: something points and might not need him this week. So
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: I got it as a three star for that reason.
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: But Smith is my pick to win. It's him or
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: pass for me. I'm not gonna have one hundred and
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: fifty lineups. I'm likely to have twenty or less, So
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: when I say passes, I'm not saying I would pass
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: if I was one hundred and fifty lineup entry coming guy.
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna play some Smith, just because, like man,
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: I think his profile and when he wins fights, like
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: just seeing it six point two one sentimi strikes per minute,
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: seven point four to two takedowns, all American wrestler. He
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: feels like an all gas, no breaks kind of guy.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: Chain takedowns minus one zero five to finish is round one.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: Prop plus two fifty.
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: Like, I think he has as much upside as pretty
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: much anyone on this card outside of Fluffy Hernandez. So
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna be playing some Jacoby Smith, and I
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: also am playing some Josiah Harrell.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: And the reason for.
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: That is I like him more than Miller. I like
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: him more than Levitt, I like him more than grew L.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: I like him more than Sean Strickland. Like I don't
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: like that Lo Lo low Tier too much. This Harold dude,
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: I think, like when you're backing fighters that are really cheap,
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: I want him to be somewhat good or think they're
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: somewhat good. I think this dude's actually pretty well rounded.
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: He can wrestle his strikings fine cardio Like, I'm a
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: little nervous about Smith the longer it goes, because I
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: do think he wrestles. So yeah, I think Harold's a
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: little interesting on this card plus four to fifty inside
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: the distance open plus five to fifty, and I think
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: a lot of that is late finish equity as well.
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: So I'm going to be in on this fight, and
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: I don't think ownership is going to be too crazy. Smith,
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: I think has a lot of upside, as you can
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: see on the stone, and I think Harrol has some
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: sneaky upside if he's able to survive early, and I
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: think he can turn it on late even though it
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: is on short notice. So I'm excited for this one
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: in real life too, Smith And anytime you got an
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: all American wrestler going in the UFC was showed a
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: little bit of hands.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Pretty promising. But I'm excited for this one. We'll keep
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: it rolling. Four fights, love Man, fourteen fights. That's a
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: lot of fights. It is a lot of fun.
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: Comes Saturday though, Anti Dalia minus one thirty taking on
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: Serviant Serge Speedback plus one ten.
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: We have minus two ninety for.
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: This fight to finish Dalia minus one twenty five. Inside
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: of this since Speedbock plus two seventy, I'm looking at
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: like striker in Speedback versus the wrestler in Dalia. Know,
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: let me take the back striker Indalija versus the wrestler
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: in Spevac.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Do you see it the same? And how do you
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: see the fight going?
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: Yeah? Yeah, I do.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: You had me thinking I was like, holy shit, I
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: gotta go.
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I'm too, but yeah, I just I'm gonna
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: be high on this fight because minus three twenty five
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: and the inside the distance, it's a striker versus grappler.
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: I don't feel good about who's gonna win, but either
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: guy could win and look like they should have been
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: a minus five hundred favorite, and I like being heavy
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: on those types of fights. I'm picking Ante to get
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: the knockout in the first round, so he's gonna be
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: my preferred play, but I'm not confident about it, and
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: Spivac could wipe the floor with them, and at seventy
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: six hundred, Spivak could be a guy who scores one
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: hundred and twenty points and it becomes a no Spivack,
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: no no cash type of night. So I'm fine if
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: I'm struggling with my lineup, like I don't like those
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: guys you mentioned either strickling in below, So if I'm
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: struggling for an underdog, I'm fine just going down from
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: Auntie down to Spivac and then seeing what I could
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: do with the rest of my lineup. So I'll just
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: be heavy on this fight in general. But my pick
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: first round Auntie knockout.
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have a strong lean on it, but
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: because I need dogs, because I'm playing a bunch of fluffy,
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna lean the one K savings in a
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: close fight where I can get the wrestler and a
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: lot of savings, very similar upside on both. You could
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: argue Speedboc has more upside. Actually I'm leaning Speedbac, and
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: that's not necessarily because I think he wins the fight.
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: I truly don't know who wins the fight, but if
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: Stevoc wins at seventy six hundred, I feel really good
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: that he's pretty close to being on the optimal where
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: I guess the same can like de La probably but
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: not necessarily. This fight did open minus two to fifty
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: to finish, got all the way to minus three twenty
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: five and then some money back on the over now
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: minus two ninety. If Spivoc wins, I think it's through
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: the wrestling and it's hard to see him scoring poorly,
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: so he's my preferred side with the savings.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: But yeah, good fights to target on both sides.
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: The only heavyweight fight on the card heavily favored to
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: finish three fights left, mel Costa taking on Dan Egay
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: Costa minus two twelve, Egay plus one eighty two plus
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: one ninety five for this fight to finish the most
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: likely on the card. Now it's even more likely to
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: go the distance by a hair over the Jocelyn Edwards fight.
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: The underdog and e game more likely to finish at
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: plus three fifty Coast of plus four to twenty five.
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely not playing Melcosta at eighty nine hundred, No chance.
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: I don't like much Dan Egay either. I think a
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: lot of underdogs are better. I have more upside. But
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: with that being said, Dan always has power. It's just
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: I think he probably loses a decision because he gets outpointed.
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: How do you see it?
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I just think.
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: He's He's actually a pretty good wrestler, pretty good striker.
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: He just doesn't wrestle enough, and he doesn't strike at
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: a high.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Enough pace and he doesn't get finished.
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: That's true, But if he's not getting a knockout, it's
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: just hard for him to score well.
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah, DraftKings with with his lack of work.
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: Rate and Coast on the other end, is a fairly
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: high paced fighter, and I think that's what's gonna give
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: him the winning this one. He's just gonna have the
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: higher work rate and he's gonna be enough to win
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: two or three rounds wherever the fight takes place. So
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: he's my pick, But I agree Egay is my preferred
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: DFS play because if he did show up, Man, if
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: we saw an Egay who's looking to wrestle, I feel
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: like he could wrestle Coast. It's just he's not gonna
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: look to wrestle more than one or two three takedowns,
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: and we're gonna need more than that. And if he
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: doesn't get the knockout, he's not gonna be throwing enough volume,
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: so it's hard to trust him.
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: But seventy three hundred it's a good price tag. I'm
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: fine getting some Egay.
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: I actually changed it to a two star Coast four
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: star Egay on this one, but pick his coast to win.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd be one star Coast a five star Egay,
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: but i'd be one star Coast a three star Egay
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: three stars fade the fight like I do. Not like
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: this fight, but definitely, if I'm playing it, I'm playing
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: the Dan Egay side. If that being said, Morgan Charier
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: never gets knocked out either, and Coasta sits him down
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: in round one and absolutely buries my lineup. So he's skilled,
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: but man, Dany Gay's got a chin, he's well rounded.
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: I think more than likely it goes the decision, close
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: fight coast, it probably wins a decision doesn't get there,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: but then Egan might prefer play for sure if choosing
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: who go from I mean, a solid real life fight
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: was Ega, but we go to an absolute banger in
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: the co main event. Two strikers gonna throw down minus
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: two to ten Jeff Neil plus one eighty euros meticch
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: minus six to fifty for this fight to finish oh
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: Man minus six fifty minus one sixty Jeff Neil plus
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: two to ten euros metic Neil round one plus one
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: sixty five metach plus three seventy five.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: What a banger. I'm pumped for this one. How do
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: you see it?
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, gonna be strikers delight. Both guys are gonna be
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: striking into one of them falls most likely. I do
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: think minus six to fifty is a little high, though,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: and that's why I put it as a four star.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: I think that it could.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: I think it could go to a decision, But even
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: after the first round if a Neil wins, I think
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: Neil could not make the optimal lineup with a second
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: or a third round knockout. And I think they're both
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: in play. But medicch super dangerous seventy five hundred. He
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: could be one of those guys that you just need.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: He could knock out Neil in the first round and
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: you're gonna need that. But I just think Neil is
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: so much better than this guy everywhere, and if he
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: doesn't get knocked out, I think he's gonna be the
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: one giving the knockout or just clearly winning all three rounds.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: If it's a decision, I think Neil wins thirty twenty seven.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: It doesn't look like that on the stone, but I
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: personally think Neil is a level or two above Meditic
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: in the striking, especially over fifteen minutes. I think he's
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: fought much better competition, beat much better competition, and he's the.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 5: Value side in my opinion. If I had to bet
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 5: this side, give me him at minus two hundred.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna say my preferred side's Meditch. Simply like the
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: Delia Spibac fight. I know I'm playing a bunch of fluffy.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: I know I keep tipping my hand in the main events,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: but I need dogs, and I think if Medicch wins
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: has one hundred plus point upside, a Speedback wins, he
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: has one hundred plus point upside.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: Gd wins.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: Sorry, that's an alarm. We get those NBA teams in
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: nights late. Anyone out there Shipping Nation dot com can
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: help you out. Showdown content Litt'll plug for a man,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: little neck thirty minutes if you get in does an
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: awesome job. Nobody better in the business in the Showdown
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: content streets better man little necks. You can check that out.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: But I'm getting them in as we're speaking. We got time.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: But I just think, like, yeah, Medic Spivak, Zachary Reeves,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: cheaty like these dogs. If they win, I think they
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: have as much upside as the other side at the
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: end of the day, Phil Rowe even so, I need
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: saving because I'm playing a bunch of fluffy Hernandez. I
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: think these two are gonna bang. I think both guys
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: if whoever lands a big power shot first, I trust
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: Jeff Deel's chin more, but he's just got his chin
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: absolutely cracked as well.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: Metich hits hard. I'm excited for this one. Probably Neil
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: gun to my head.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: Sure, I'm going with that, but yeah, we play a
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: salary based game. I'm gonna need some. I'm definitely gonna
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: play some. Jeff Neil too, don't get me wrong, but
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: erosmtas my third side for the twelve hundred savings because
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: we need some dogs on this card, all right, main
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: event time. I know I keep saying my pick, but
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: we got Fluffy. Nana's minus two fifty five. Take it on,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: John Strickland plus two to fifteen. This fight's plus one
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: thirty five to finish, we have Fluffy plus one eighty
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: five inside distance Strickland plus five fifty. I mean Fluffy.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: Hernandez is the morob of excuse me, of DFS. He
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: has scored no less than ninety four points in any
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: of his wins. He has one hundred and ninety two
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: point five in there, one hundred and forty one point
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: two in there, the one ninety five against Michelle Pereira,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: and I think absolutely just I mean, demolish his career.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: At the end of the day, he hasn't really looked
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: the same. Stric Daddy always loves Stric Daddy in DFS.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: I'm we're not I'm not talking. We're not talking about politics.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: What he's saying this or that. We're breaking down the
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: fight game. Strickland has made me a lot of money.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: This dude is just solid pretty much everywhere. Great cardio,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: the jab's good, the volume's good. He'll fight for your dollar.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: With all that being said, Fluffy puts on a different pace.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, he might be susceptful to the body,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: but I think he gets a takedown. Then I think
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: he gets another, and then another, and I think at
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: the end of the day, Strickland, known for standing in
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: between rounds looking good, looking down his opponents. I think
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: he's gonna be huffing and puffing and in for a long,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: long twenty five minutes. If he can make it that far,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: Fluffy very well might be sixty five percent owned. I
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: could argue that might not even be high owned enough
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: in this one. I'm gonna have a bunch. My case
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: for Strickland is just the leverage off of a very
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: chalky fighter. If he wins, it's probably by knockout.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm curiously on your take, Like Kenny,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: just piece him up for twenty five minutes?
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: Is that possible. I don't like Strickland much. I say,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: you have a one star, but at the end of
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: the day he's plus two to fifteen to win. People
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: are gonna be a lot lot higher on Fluffy again.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: He could be sixty five percent, but I'm I might
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: have ninety percent. Like I'm gonna play a bunch of fluffy,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: which is why I am picking some of these dogs below.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: How do you see it?
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna pretty much be all in on
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: on the Fluffy side.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: The fight I want to see is Fluffy versus chamaiev
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: and I'm just gonna be picking Fluffy until that happened.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: Really, I thought you're gonna pick him over Chama.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know I'm a picking that, but I just
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: i gotta see it. Those are the two I think
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: are gonna beat everybody strickling and also not like that
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: one punch knockout type of guy where uh he could
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: just beat straight Hernandez to the knockout rather than getting
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: taken down. I just think that the takedowns are gonna
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: be there, and in fights that hit the third round,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: Hernandez averages seven and a half takedowns in so crazy,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: I think we're gonna get six plus takedowns from Hernandez,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: possibly twelve takedowns on the Hernandez side, a ton of points.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna I'm just gonna be all in on Hernandez.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: Every single lineup I think is gonna have him.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: The only way I wouldn't have him is if I'm
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: building a lineup, like let's say the highest I got
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: was nine K, and I just love the rest of
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: my lineup. That's probably the only way I would not
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: have Hernandez in my lineup.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna have any Strickland. If Strickland wins, it's
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: gonna be a bad night for me.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: You're kind of making me think, like maybe I maybe
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: I would be fine if I just had nine k's
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: my highest owned and left zero dollars and he just
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: holpe Fluffy scores like one oh four, and maybe that's
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: not enough. But man, it feels like if this fight
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: goes twenty five minutes, like it feels like a one
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: forty piece in my opinion.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Because otherwise, like if if it stays on the feet,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: Strickland's obviously like the better striker can jab them up.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: But I just Fuffy's so relentless on the man. You
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: can see six point four to six takedowns per fifteen minutes.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: I think he absolutely, I mean, I agree, Paul. Unfortunately,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: I I ain't picking against him my. If I've never
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: picked against him, I definitely ain't picking against him anytime soon.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: In my opinion.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 6: That a fifth round against Fluffy though, I don't think
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 6: he's getting no fifth round.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: This dude's cut from a different claw.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean obviously, like unless it's like if it's
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: the same thing he did against Dracus like that, I
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: think he could do that for fifty five minutes. Like
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: all he did was he just too big on top,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: too strong, his positional control is too good. I'm not
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: necessarily comparing Fluffy's ground game.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: I'll have to see the line, but I don't think
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: he'll be that big of a favorite against Fluffy.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: Let's see if there's any I doubt there's any future line.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: Sometimes they do that.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Let's see.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: More events. No, I'm not seeing anything. What do you
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: think would be minus saying it would be minus three eighty?
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: You will see if we get it. I want to
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: see it. I want to say I think I.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: Might freaking bet the Fluffy side if it's that high.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: But I don't know. I have to look in.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm wrong.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: I just feel like I remember Shama I have really
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: faded in that fifth round against DDP.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, the EP didn't have Mountain four. He just
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: got on time. I just on top.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: How are you going to fade in a fight where
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 5: you had no I.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: Don't even know if he faded, But I was in Greece,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: to be fair, so I was watching it very early
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: in the morning over there. Uh yeah, I'm playing a
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: bunch of faff here nandas though definitely not playing much
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: Sean Strickland, but I'm not going to ask him out
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: because it is a lot of leverage and at the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: end of the day's plus two to fifteen.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: What's plus two fifteen in terms of odds to win
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: thirty one percent?
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: I do think at the end of the day Strickland
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: probably comes in under thirty one percent. How many of
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: Sean Strickland's wins do you think will be optimal? Like,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: if I'm telling you he wins ninety percent of his wins,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: is he on the optimal fifty percent?
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: What's your what's your guess?
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, well, no, maybe not not that high, cause
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: I guess it could be like Hernandez dominates the first
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: two rounds and then Strickland comes back.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: So I would say, like seventy seventy five percent of
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 5: his wins.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: I mean saying that that makes means like a twenty
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: percent Strickland would probably be somewhere to be around. And yeah,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: I think at the end of the day, Strickland's probably
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: in the mid twenties ownership and Fluffier and Nanez is
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: probably high sixties.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe low seventies. Fourteen fight card.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: It feels hard to do that, but I mean, man, people,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: everyone's gonna say what we're saying about his wrestling. Yeah,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: I think he is under thirty one percent on personally,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: I do what about Strickland's takedown defense? I mean, Strickland
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: used to before his motorcyc cycle accident. Like, Strickland can wrestle,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: he just really hasn't.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: Let me see what is what his actual takedown defenses.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 5: Took him down like five or six times.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's the fight that I was I was
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: thinking of. I don't know the sample size is, hold on,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: let me get you exact number. Seventy six percent. But again,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: this dude's been fighting since twenty fourteen in the UFC,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: had a bad motorcycle accident that kept him out for
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: a period of time. Drikus uh In the last fight
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: went one for two on takedowns, just outstruck him. But yeah,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: in their first fight six for eleven on takedowns was drikus.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: He fought Costa Coast, didn't shoot a takedown boost Maga
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: Metov went one for two and then just completely gassed. Obviously,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: Adasanya didn't Imovov zero for one. His distance management's good,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: there's no doubt about that. But Brendan Allen in twenty twenty,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: a while ago, Brendan didn't even shoot for a takedown,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: like he really hasn't been tested too much, and they
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: take down department. In twenty seventeen, Ouspan went two for eight,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: but that was pre motorcycle accident, where you can tell
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: he definitely lost his step a little bit.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I can't see him in
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: the future.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: I just think at the end of the day, I
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: think a lot of people will be light on Fluffy ownership,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: and I don't think many people are gonna want to
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: click that Sean Strickland name when it's all said and
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: done due to the upside of Fluffy Hernandez. But maybe
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: I'm wrong. I don't know about that either. Any final
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: thoughts for you before you get done out here. What
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: a card our ten talking fourteen fights fingers crossed, we
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: keep all fourteen because if so, what a fight night
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: we're in for?
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah, looking forward to it.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: I mean you might be pumped having like a six
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 4: hundred point score at the end of this one, but
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: that's not going to cut it. I've been on this card,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 4: so we're looking for as high as we can get.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: It might need to be a little closer to seven
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: hundred on this one, especially with a fluffy on the card.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: But looking forward to it. Hopefully we have some bangers.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: Good luck to you title, Good luck to everybody listening.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: Let's ship it.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: Appreciate everyone hanging out and again shout out to Tim,
• 1:11:50
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• 1:11:53
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• 1:11:57
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• 1:12:00
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• 1:14:04
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