Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Bank of America's Just Gave a Dire Warning (Most Aren't Ready) + Stock Market News 18 May 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Bank of America's Just Gave a Dire Warning (Most Aren't Ready) + Stock Market News 18 May 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Bank of America just published a report that sent shockwaves through institutional Wall Street.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: The title of the report is called The Door to Doom Has Opened.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: This is not clickbait.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: This is not speculation.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's also not a Doom and Gloom video.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of the biggest banks in the world.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they are warning that a critical threshold has been crossed.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Something that preceded every major market crash in modern history.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the slightly terrifying part is that most retail investors have no idea this has happened.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now, of course, Wall Street isn't sending that report to you.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's not even in the news, it's sending it to the institutional investor, something we're changing in this video.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: But they also don't want you to know that every single crash creates an opportunity to turn$10,000 into$100,000 in less than a year or two.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: The question is simply: will you be ready or will you panic like everybody else?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Felix Breen.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: I've spent the last decade studying market crashes.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Not to panic, but to profit from them.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sitting here in the south of France, and I'm pissed off that these kind of reports are literally life-changing research, life-changing information that gets sent to only big institutional clients and not to you.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Because I believe you deserve to see it too.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: And if you agree with me on that, just write deserve in the comments down below.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm not only going to give you Bank of America's full report, I've also added a full note explainer that makes it easy to understand for beginners.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Because these guys write in language that's hard to follow.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: So we fixed that.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: And you can download that for free.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: You can leave this video and even to watch it.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: You just go to phelixfriends.org slash doom, which is a happy title, isn't it?
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's completely free, no credit requirement, nothing, just instant access.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: The links in the description, it's pinned in the comments.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: But let's talk about what Bank of America is actually saying for the people who've got the patience to really understand this and who want to really be prepared.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: The first alarm bell is called the Magginot line by Bank of America.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a term from World War II.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard about it for the first time today.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: And in simple terms, it's think of a dam holding back water.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: So for the bond market, that dam was the 30-year Treasury yield, which is basically interest rate paid on a 30-year government, US government bond.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: And it just hit 5%.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a treasury yield, let's make this really simple.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: When you bond markets are confusing for everybody, I get it.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: When you lend money to the government for 30 years, they pay you interest.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: That interest rate is called the yield.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: And for decades, this rate has been below 5%.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: That was the damp.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: When it crosses above 5%, it signals that investors are demanding more money from the US government because they sense danger.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: So smart money is getting nervous.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: And the reason this matters is this.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Bank of America studied every major bubble in modern history.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: Japan, 1989, the dot-com bubble, 1999, 2007, right?
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: And the pattern was always identical.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: When long-term government borrowing costs go to the moon, the boom times end.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: So the dam is cracked.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And according to the Goons of Bank of America, there is no silver lining in this report.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's number one.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's the most complex one we're going to cover here.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: The rest is actually a little bit easier to understand.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: I just wanted to scare you a little bit with something that's a bit complex.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's just I I can only explain it the way they're explaining it.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Alarm bell number two is the 4% inflation rule.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Again, they looked at a hundred years of market data and found a simple rule.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: When inflation goes above 4%, here's what happens.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks drop 4% over the next three months.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't sound like a lot.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks then drop 7% over the next seven months, right?
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And right now, consumer prices are rising at almost 4%.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: But, and this is the worrying part, producer prices, so manufacturing prices are rising at 6%.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: So when those manufacturing costs come down into retail because all your stuff gets manufactured somewhere, you're going to buy less.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: You're going to have less ability to buy stuff because your money is now worth less.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: So you're going to spend less.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: And what does the Fed have to do to fight inflation?
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: They increase interest rates, which makes borrowing more expensive.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Higher borrowing costs crush stock valuations.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: Energy costs go up, electricity prices go up, transportation goes up, rent prices go up, everything gets more expensive.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: And Bank of America says we get at 5% inflation.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: So there's not theory, it's not doom and gloom.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's a hundred years of dating.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Now, there is a silver lining here I'm going to give you.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Bank of America didn't, but I will.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: So stick around.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: But first, let's learn their third alarm bell.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: And they call it the alligator jaws.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: You could've made this stuff up, but it's quite a good visual.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine an alligator opening his mouth, you know, that sort of thing, you know, that sort of thing.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the top jaw is the stock market going up, right?
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: The bottom jaw is the bond market going down, which is what we're seeing.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: And right now we have the widest gap as far as the alligator can open his mouth between the stock market performance and the bond market performance.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Like the biggest gap on record.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: And the problem is alligator jaws always close.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: The question is how they close.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: So there are two options.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Option A is stocks crash down to meet bonds, which is really unpleasant for us.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: And option B is bonds recover to meet stocks, which is very rare, and it requires inflation to disappear overnight.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Somewhat unlikely.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: So option A is usually what happens.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: And when that happens, it happens fast, a lot after.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: So just digest this for a second.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Pause the video if you like and think, do you think we're in a bubble?
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yes or no?
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Put it in the comments.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: I read them.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: And while you're thinking about that, we've covered the warnings, the three warnings.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: You now understand more than 99% of people out there.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: And I know that can feel a little overwhelming, but here is where this gets exciting.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: I've spent months analyzing what actually happens after market crashes.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I found something that doesn't get advertised very much.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Crashes create millionaires.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: Let me show you the date.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: Let me give you some examples from 2020.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: The market collapsed in 2020, COVID panic, right?
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Business was shutting down, employment skywatting.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you'd invested$10,000 into, say, FCX, which is a stock called Freeport McMurrin, 24 months later, you'd have$98,000, almost a 10x.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: If you bought Royal Caribbean, you'd be up 9x.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: Zoom, 7x.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: Block, 7x.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: So the average winner rallied five times, so 5x in less than two years.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: If you go back a little further to 2008, same pattern, different crash.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Royal Caribbean, again, 9x, right, in 22 months.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Bank of America, which everybody thought was dead, 6x return.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: FCX, again, makes the list, 7x return.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: Caterpillar up, 5x, right?
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: So the average winner, 5x your money in about 20 months.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: So why the heck am I telling you this?
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: Most people panic during crashes.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: They sell at the bottom.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: The smart investors study patents and buy when there is blood in the streets.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: But you need a rule book, a framework that you can actually, but you can't just throw doubts at the board.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: And I see this coming.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it's going to happen next week or next month or even in three months or in six months.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: At some point it's coming.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: I can guarantee you, there will be a crash.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be 30% down or more, and people are going to cry.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: But the people who know what they're doing, they're going to be going, ha ha ha, 5x, 9x, 10x returns are coming to my portfolio.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: And I want you guys to be this.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm literally working on, I'm sitting here, a free workshop called the 10x Crash Returns Blueprint.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm working on literally, as I'm sitting here in the lovely south of France, on something that I call how to find the next 10x bagger workshop.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: And in the workshop, I'm going to break down for you the framework for finding these crash winners before they run, which sectors produce the biggest gains and why the exact indicators to tell you when to buy and sell and how to avoid the traps.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm going to run that for you live this weekend.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be free.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: You'll be about two hours long.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: And you can grab yourself a free ticket at 10xreturns.org.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: Links down below in the description.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a workshop I've never run before.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: I probably will never run another one again because it's turning out to be a little bit more work than I thought.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: But this is so important, we're going to do this one for you.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: So click on the link down below.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Join me on the weekend.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: Be on time.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: Don't ask for a replay.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: And bring the pen and paper.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Bring some friends.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Tell other people about it.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Share the link.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Seriously, it's going to be it's going to be the biggest opportunity, I think, that we have in at least a decade.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: But let's dive a little bit deeper into what Bank of America is telling us, right?
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: When the stock market goes up, people feel wealthier because their portfolios are up.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: So they spend more money because they feel rich, same as house prices.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: And therefore, companies make more money from more spending.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Stock market goes up some more, and you repeat the process.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's like a it's like a happy leap.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: It's the opposite of the doom leap.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now, US household stock market wealth is up$4 trillion just this year.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: We did a$10 trillion gain last year,$9 trillion the year before,$8 trillion years before that, right?
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds wonderful.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the problem?
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: It's not real wealth.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's paper wealth.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: It only exists as long as stock prices keep going up.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: And the moment the cycle reverses, that wealth kind of evaporates.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: And Bank of America says this boom loop will only end with two things: politics and bonds.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: And both are giving us some real warning signs right now.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: So what has them concerned, and this is what they're sending out to the big funds, you know, the guys with billions of dollars, semiconductors, chips.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: We're in a bubble there.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: The if you can look at the chart here, we'll put that on the screen for you.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: This blue line here is the 200-day moving average.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's a really long-term average.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, we are something like 60% above that average.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: What does that mean?
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing to most people.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: Like if you've got, you know, social life and that sort of thing, this is meaningless to you.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: But the 200-day moving average is sort of the normal price over the last year.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: When you're 60% above it, like we are right now, it's like a rubber band.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's stretched to its breaking point, and eventually it snaps back and it hurts your little finger because you're holding on to it.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: So Bank of America compared this to only two other moments in history.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: The Mississippi bubble in France in the 1700s.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm in France right now, one of the worst financial disasters ever.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: And secondly, the dot-com bubble, which wiped out trillions.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: I started investing in 1999.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: It was not a good moment to start investing.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: I lost 50% of my money because I didn't know what the heck I was doing.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I did not buy the opportunities that came out of that.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: I had no idea what to do.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: So we're in a dangerous territory, according to the buffoons at Bank of America.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: And secondly, this concentration in just a handful of tech stocks is higher than it's been in 50 years.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a chart I saw from, I think it was also in Bank of America, just this week.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought it illustrates very well the problem with concentration.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: So people talk about market breadth, like how many stocks are going up, how many stocks are not going up at all.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: And we all know there are 500 stocks in the SP, 500, right?
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: They're 500 stocks.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the top 10 stocks have driven 72% of the entire rally this year.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: So 72% of all your gains in the SP 500 come from just top 10 stocks.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: The other 490 stocks did basically buggle all.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: The problem with that is it's a very fickle rally.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: Because look at these guys, it's all tech, it's basically all semiconductors.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: So if these stocks, these tech AI chip stocks, that theme fails, what happens?
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: We get a massive, massive crash very, very quickly, very, very rapidly, very, very easily.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: And the example that Bank of America gives is not one you're gonna like.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry about that, but I can only give you the data as I see it.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: In 1989, Japan had the biggest stock bubble in the history of the world.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: And when it popped, Japan's stock market fell by 80%.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now, did it recover overnight?
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: No, it took 30 years to recover.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: Ruin people's retirements for sure.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: And the warning signs before the crash were the identical data to what Bank of America is seeing right now in the US.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: So history doesn't have to repeat, but it tends to rhyme.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: And the rhyme is serious enough to want to take this seriously.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: No, but I promised I wouldn't terrify you through you through the entire video.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: So let me give you the framework for actually finding the winners that pop out of every crash.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a system that I use to identify which stocks to watch when the crash actually happens.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: And again, it's based on analyzing all the winners from 2008 and 2020 and the dot-com bubble and all the ones we have before that.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: So there are four steps here, and you might want to write this down.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: The first step is what I call deep value recovery.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: So the most beaten-down sectors can produce the most extreme rallies.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a reason it works.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: When people panic, they sell everything.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Automated selling happens, people are leveraged funds, people have, you know, borrow money against their portfolios, they have to sell.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: So good companies trade at sort of bankrupt company prices.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: You know, the babies literally get thrown out with the bath water when, and then when the fear subsides, the snapback is again like that.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: Proper banned.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: And a good example here is the one I gave you earlier, which is which is FCX, which coming out of the 2020 crash, you know, has done extraordinarily well, as you can see on the screen here, right?
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: Went from like$5 to$52.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: Or Royal Caribbean, which also came out of 2020, uh, it's up only about 13x.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I could show you lots more of these charts.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: But what do we look for?
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: We look for stocks that are down 70% or more from their highs.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put it on the screen here for you.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks down 70% or more that are actually good companies, right?
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um if you're one who've got a good company, it's a bit of fundamental kind of balance sheet stuff to learn there.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: We have a tool for this, actually, which I'll show you.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: And you can filter for, like, say, North America or the United States or any other major country, and you can say, hey, I want I want quality businesses.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: You just hit quality.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll give you quality businesses.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll have our score on here.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you can make a watch list out of it and you can you can see what they're doing.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: You could also go a little bit nuts and actually go into the depth of it, but that's that's what I would do.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: So if we type in FCX here, for example, talk we've been talking about, um, our score is 68.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's not amazing, you know, it goes to 100, uh, but it's pretty pretty decent.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: But you're looking for these kind of like decent businesses or even better than decent businesses that get hit pretty hard in those environments, right?
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: You can make a watch list a lot of high-quality ones, and that'll be you you can play with it.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there is a free trial to the app if you wish to play with it.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put a link down below for you guys as well if you're interested in that.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you can cancel if you don't like it before the trial expires, but if you get some value out of it, brilliant.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh ton of other stuff in there too, but I'm not here to sell you the app.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we want to avoid something that I call a value trap.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: Not every cheap stock is a good stock, right?
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Buying falling stocks has not always been a good strategy.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we were talking on the weekend quite a lot about PayPal, for example, which on paper looked like a brilliant business, but it's down.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, people say buy the cheap stock, right?
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: Good luck with it with the dip buying because you're down about 85% right now.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got to be careful with that.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: Some companies are cheap because they're actually crap, right?
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: Badly bothered.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: So you need the second step to filter out the bad ones.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what I call secular tailwinds.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: You've got to filter out the garbage down there.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: So the rule is this, and I might want to write this down.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: The biggest winners aren't just recovering, they're riding a longer-term trend.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: What's a secular tailwind?
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's a trend that lasts five to 10 years plus, regardless of the short-term crash.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, digitization, renewable energy, aging population, needs more healthcare, right?
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: Infrastructure spending, US infrastructure is a joke, it needs to be renewed.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, those kind of themes.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: So, say during COVID, right?
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: We had Zoom, Roku, Shopify, they wrote the digital transformation front.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: In 20, 2008, we had um Freeport with the FCX, Caterpillar.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: That was the infrastructure boom, right?
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_00: So, why does that matter?
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well, when the crash ends, these kind of companies don't just recover to old highs, they blow past them because the business actually got better on the ICS.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: So if you look at Zoom, Zoom didn't go back to like 2019 valuations.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: No, Zoom went up, you know, 7, 8, 9x and then crashed, which is also why you need to know when to sell, which we could cover on the workshop if you join me there.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: But it had a proper theme behind it.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: It was remote work exploded, right?
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone was doing meetings online.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: So you want to look at the tech adoption, you want to see what's going on out there.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: The third step that I look for as a filter is too big to fail.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: Industries, the government can't afford to let fail produce very strong recoveries.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: So why does it work?
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: Because modern governments don't allow systemic collapse.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: We get bailouts, we get stimulus, we get liquidity injections, basically too big to fail.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's a real thing, right?
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: Bank of America in 2008, Citigroup, JP Morgan, they all got government money, and then they went up 3x or 6x in 2020.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: Airlines got government loans, they survived in Radage.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: The energy sector got indirect support through from the government.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: So, what do you look for?
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: Financial institutions, critical in critical infrastructure, defense contractors, uh, critical minerals, auto manufacturers, all those things governments think are necessary for the country to survive or for them to get re-elected.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: And then number four, it's the commodity cycle.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: The rule is this.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I want to write this down.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: And let me know if this is useful.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: If it's too in-depth for this kind of video, then also let me know.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: I sometimes go a little bit deep.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: I get that.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: Energy and material stocks rally strongly in both crash recoveries.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: You get an economic recovery.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: So you get demand for stuff like copper for infrastructure, oil for transportation, steel for construction, lithium for batteries, and so on.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why the stock called FCX keeps popping up again, because they have a copper business.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: So they 7x in 2008, they're 10x'd in 2020.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: Or Oxy, Occidental Petroleum, 6x'd in 2020.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: Other oil companies will do the same thing, not quite as much, but still.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: So what did we look for?
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: Commodity producers, not the traders, but the commodity producers that have low debt and the ability to survive low prices for a while.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: But again, I can tell you these rallies don't last.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: So you need to know when the heck to get out of them.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: And then if you put all that together, you get likely winners that can do 5x, 7x, 10x.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: So we're looking for what?
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: Deep value, a secular tailwind, so like the trend, you know, technology or something like that, government support, commodity cycles.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: Probably the most important thing isn't just knowing how to find these, which is gets you in the right game, but then knowing what to do once you've got your gains.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: Because look at this one here.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: Who remembers Peloton, right?
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: Went up from$20 to almost 200, like a 9x, and then it gave it all back and it's trading at$5 right now.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: So even if you bought it at the bottom of the COVID crash at$20, you'd be down 75% right now.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: If you bought it up there, you'd be down about 99%.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: So you have to understand that when you're buying individual stocks, you can't hold them forever because bad things happen to good companies.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: And there are many such examples.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: Think about square or block as it was known or the other way around.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: Zoom, I already just showed you.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: Peloton.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: Here's Peloton, right?
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe what we can do, let me know in the comments if you want me to do that, or send me a suggestion in the app.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: What we could do, we can add a filter here that could be like deep value and it could be good businesses that are down, you know, 30% plus.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: It might be an easier way to find it.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: We already have a zombie filter, for example, that shows you the real rubbish, which you might be holding might be worth checking out.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's an idea we could we could do.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: Again, let me know if that's something that'd be useful for you and I'll add it to the app.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: So what do you do right now?
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: You start building a watch list.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: Write down some of the big repeat winners that I've already given you.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: Some of them are on the screen here.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: You can write those down.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: You want to have a little bit of cash on the side, or if you have good cash flow coming in every week, every month from multiple income streams, that's also brilliant.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not a huge fan of holding tons of cash.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: But you want to be able to buy something when the SHIT hits the fan.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then you might want to understand how you can automate some of this process, both the buying and the profit taking.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: So you're not, you know, uh getting emotional and making silly decisions, which is what we all do when we get emotional.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: So my entire portfolio has always got rules on it.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: When to sell it, when to buy it, it's it's all it's all set up with the rules.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: And it makes me sleep better at night because I don't need to look at it.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: I can literally be sitting here.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: I was just having lunch by the pool, and I don't need to worry about the portfolio because I know what it's doing, I know where the limits are, I know where it's gonna go, no matter what happens in the market.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: So automations remove emotion.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about that also on the weekend.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're still thinking, well, this time's gonna be different, as we will always say, and that's really when I get stuff to get interested in the in crashes, is when people say this time is different.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: There is no sin in taking profits at approximately the right places.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: There is no sin in missing out on opportunities, but there is sin in handing all your profits back to the buggers on Wall Street because you worked hard for that.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: You deserve the profits, you deserve the freedom.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: And the only way you do that is if you get a rule-based framework that you can actually put in place.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: So let me give you a couple of more tips to put in your calendar.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: There's an OPEC meeting in early June that's going to be very important for oil prices and inflation.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: There's a G7 summit also, again, could be important for oil prices, inflation.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then the first Fed decision from the new El Presidente, the new chairman of the Fed.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_00: And everybody wants them to cut rates.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: Looks very unlikely now.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: They might even indicate that they might raise rates.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: The market is gonna freaking hate that.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: And the 5% on the interest rates that we're talking about just now could be a number that we wish we had at that moment.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_00: This is important.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: So prepare.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_00: Don't panic, definitely not.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to really prepare, come and join me on the weekend tech.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_00: We've never done a workshop like this before.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: I doubt I'll ever do one again, as I said, because it's a it's a ton of effort to do them.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_00: But I I do enjoy doing them, which is why I'm sharing it with you.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's it's timely.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is the time.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: This is when you have to learn it.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_00: When the sun's shining and the sky is blue, that's when you want to be prepared for the storm.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: When the storm is already here, it's too late.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_00: You can't get the equipment, you can't have the time frame to learn it.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: You are in the wrong, wrong mood because you're already panicking.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's the same with the market.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: So when the sky is this blue as it is right here in the south of France, that's when you want to sit down.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm hoping that even though you're not necessarily feeling the pain or the who knows what's going to happen this week in the market, that you are you can see that what I'm saying here is true.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: That this is the moment to prepare.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: So come and prepare with me.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: Not for doom, not for gloom, but for the biggest wealth opportunity of the decade.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_00: Because it's come and most people won't be prepared.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: So grab yourself a free suit at 10xreturns.org and join me on the weekend.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I wish you all the best and safe investing.