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Are the Jaguars a Safe Bet in 2025? · Duval Daily: A Jacksonville Jaguars Podcast

• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jacksonville Jack Wars fans.
• 0:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome in to Dove All Daily Prisoner by Jin Jack.com.
• 0:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jordan Lugo.
• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you so much for being here.
• 0:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thursday, July third.
• 0:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to try to get two shows in today here for y'all and then obviously off tomorrow for the fourth of July.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Happy early for the July to all of y'all out there.
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Happy and dependent step.
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Today we are going to look or this morning.
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to look at Jaguar's twenty twenty five future odds.
• 0:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Some betting.
• 0:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the Jaguar's here for twenty twenty five and kind of answer the question are they a good bet on some of these.
• 0:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: future odds for twenty twenty five.
• 0:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: We don't talk a lot of betting here on the show but I know a lot of people do like to bet so figured we could give it a little look see here.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: On the show this morning.
• 0:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: By the way, you see the shirt.
• 0:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you do have not gone to see Jurassic World yet, which you probably haven't, you should.
• 1:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was an excellent movie.
• 1:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Really enjoyed it.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that it was the most fun installment since the first one by a wide wide margin.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: So go check it out.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Going to be a fun summer blockbuster.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Theators were packed yesterday.
• 1:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: So looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars and
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: their window.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's where we can start, I think.
• 1:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Seven and a half wins right now and at minus one twenty-ish depending on what site you're looking at.
• 1:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's implied that they will win more than that seven and a half win total.
• 1:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would take over seven and a half.
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even if you're not super confident in the Jag wars, like this was a team last year, what did they, they won four games when literally everything went wrong.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Everything that could go wrong went wrong outside of Brian Thomas Jr.
• 1:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: having a really stellar rookie year, but literally everything else, every other bet they made, every other thing they did went wrong last year.
• 2:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: And they were still in like ten one score games that they lost something like that.
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you just look at the upgrades to the coaching staff to the front office to the roster.
• 2:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then the
• 2:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: stars franchise cornerstone type players that they kept around.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: This wasn't like a complete rebuild.
• 2:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: The new regime acknowledged like, yeah, we got some dudes here.
• 2:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: We just need to raise the floor at some spots.
• 2:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: We need to be aggressive at some other spots and we'll be in a decent spot.
• 2:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that the seven and a half wins is low.
• 2:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'll be surprised if they only win seven games, honestly.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: And part of that, too, is
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is not an organization that feels like they're going into a season where it's just like, all right.
• 2:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: First year of the new regime, let's just kind of see what happens and then see how we need to pivot.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to win the division.
• 3:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to be competitive.
• 3:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to win their division.
• 3:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to take advantage of what they believe is a window with this group.
• 3:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do they think that it's perfect?
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Probably not.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: like in terms of the roster and it's not perfect.
• 3:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: But is it good enough to win eight games?
• 3:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I currently have them projected at nine and I would be surprised if they don't win eight based on their schedule and based on the fact that they get the Titans and Colts twice.
• 3:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that they're actually going to match up well with the Texans, which they did not previously, but I think they will now.
• 3:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that the Jag wars offense versus the Texans defense is going to be musty TV.
• 3:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because I think, you know, the Jags finally have an offensive coach that can go toe to toe with Demiko Riance and that crew up there.
• 3:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's going to be really good.
• 3:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: When the Super Bowl, I do not have the Jaguars when in the Super Bowl, if you wanted to make a, you know, cheap bet on it, you know.
• 4:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's got to happen eventually, right?
• 4:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: But they're like plus eight plus seventy five hundred to plus eighty five hundred based on where you look.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: So obviously, that's an extremely long shot winning the AFC also not something I would bet on for the Jaguars this year, not feel confident about that.
• 4:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's plus thirty four hundred to plus forty five hundred depending where you look.
• 4:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: So obviously another long shot type of bet, but one that if you wanted to throw a little cash at it and not obviously throw too much at it, you could win a lot.
• 4:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Their odds to win the AFC South, which I think is a more realistic bet.
• 4:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: I still have the Texans projected to win the division and I have the Jaguar's projected again at nine games, nine wins right now.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: FC South is plus two sixty to plus three twenty five so again fairly poor odds there for the jackwars but more realistic and and I think that I would definitely even though it's not going to pay out nearly as much I would feel more comfortable betting on that
• 5:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right, winning the FC South.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Making the playoffs, they are plus one fifty five to plus one eighty.
• 5:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: So getting a lot closer to even odds there.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Look, making the playoffs, that's a tough one.
• 5:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, I think they're going to win nine games.
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I definitely think they'll win more than seven and a half.
• 5:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: And nine is really my conservative number.
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I could definitely see it being ten or eleven.
• 5:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's my conservative playing at safe number.
• 6:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, making the playoffs though in a conference where you have basically
• 6:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: What you have three locks to make the playoffs, chiefs, ravens, bills, and a lot of other competitive teams.
• 6:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you just look in the Texans.
• 6:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I, there's got to be a team from the FC South, right?
• 6:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would, I would put the Texans up there as well.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you look at the Broncos, the Chargers.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of competitive teams going to be fighting to be maybe the last one or two spots in the playoffs and the AFC.
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's why it's tough.
• 6:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even if they win nine games, I think it's possible they might not make it.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Those games against the AFC Western are going to be critical for them.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: They absolutely are in the standings.
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Missing the playoffs.
• 6:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: is minus one ninety to minus two fifty to twenty five.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they're projecting the Jaguars to miss the playoffs, but not by a whole lot.
• 7:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: To win the number one seed is plus thirty five hundred to plus forty five hundred.
• 7:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so basically this is a team that folks think is going to finish around five hundred average, right?
• 7:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I honestly just think people don't know what to expect.
• 7:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's not entirely unfair because you have a first time head coach, a first time offensive coordinator, a first time defensive coordinator, a lot of new talent, a new front office.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: You make this huge bet on Travis Hunter.
• 7:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: playing both sides of the ball and something else that's completely unprecedented and hard to understand or predict right like people just can't fathom I don't think yet him playing on both sides of the ball significant numbers but that's where you're at right now Trevor Lawrence props getting into that to win MVP he's plus forty five hundred to plus five thousand that's obviously a decent little bet there
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do I think he'll win MVP?
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, sitting here and saying that any specific player is going to win MVP outside of like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, maybe Patrick Mahomes is probably a crazy thing to say, right?
• 8:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: But is it possible that Trevor Lawrence has that type of year?
• 8:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: with Liam Cohen with Brian Thomas Jr.
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Travis Hunter, Deami Brown.
• 8:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I do think it's possible that he throws like plus forty touchdowns.
• 8:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: He saw Baker may feel do it last year with Liam Cohen.
• 8:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: I definitely think Trevor Lawrence has the ability within him to do that, but that would be just such a massive jump.
• 8:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't take that one, but
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: It wouldn't completely shock me if he has an MVP level season.
• 8:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Offensive player the year he is plus, twelve thousand five hundred to plus fifteen thousand.
• 8:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, possible, very possible, but when you have all these juggernauts in your own conference makes it kind of difficult to stand out.
• 9:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Most passing yards like his
• 9:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: most for most passing yards in the league he's plus two thousand plus twenty three hundred.
• 9:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I feel the same way about that when I feel as the MVP and offensive player that year.
• 9:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Passing yards over under is at thirty six fifty and a half to thirty seven hundred and a half.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would take the over on that.
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Pretty sure I would.
• 9:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's look at his career stats here.
• 9:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: It feels like, you know, we're at, yeah, thirty six fifty and a half to thirty seven hundred and a half.
• 9:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he has in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three crushed that.
• 10:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going to crush that again this year.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's one that I would, I would definitely strongly consider.
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Passing touchdowns over under is twenty one and a half to twenty two and a half.
• 10:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would smash that.
• 10:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he will crush that this year.
• 10:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think those are some good ones obviously not going to be as high paying as the MVP offensive player the year.
• 10:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Most passing yards in the league.
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think his past yards over under and past touchdowns over under are something I would get on board with.
• 10:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: The one thing with him I'm actually more concerned with is just staying healthy.
• 10:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he can stay healthy though.
• 10:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, you've seen most of his career, collegiately and professionally, he was staying healthy until the back end of the twenty twenty three season.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
• 10:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Didn't miss any time at Clemson outside of like one COVID game, I think.
• 10:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And three years there and then.
• 11:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Didn't miss any time in twenty twenty one or twenty two.
• 11:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Didn't miss any time until week fourteen.
• 11:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: We the end of week thirteen.
• 11:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: and in twenty twenty three so I
• 11:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: think it's more of a fluke, just unfortunate injury situation in the last couple years would Trevor, but it's starting to become a trend, right?
• 11:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: So hopefully that trend reverses itself in twenty twenty five.
• 11:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: But there's just kind of our little look at the betting odds there with the Jaguar's win totals and Trevor Lawrence odds and stuff there.
• 11:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: So really appreciate y'all tuning in.
• 11:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I'll be good one.