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Transcript

How to Invest During a Trump Presidency · Trillions

0:05
Speaker 1: Bokner Trillions.
0:06
Speaker 2: I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric Belchunas.
0:11
Speaker 1: Eric, I started to see this flurry of research notes
0:15
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Intelligence and one or two I was like, oh,
0:19
Speaker 1: that's kind of interesting, And then all of a sudden
0:20
Speaker 1: it was like, wait a second, there's like something to
0:24
Speaker 1: this that I think warrants an episode of Trillions, And
0:29
Speaker 1: most of it happened to be coming from Athanasio Sara
0:33
Speaker 1: Fagus on the BI team. What has he been writing about?
0:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Athanasios, you know that like on sometimes on
0:41
Speaker 2: ESPN when they'll tell you like, hey, you know the
0:43
Speaker 2: Detroit Tigers are actually like zero and three when it's
0:46
Speaker 2: raining at night on a Tuesday afternoon.
0:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, like much valued research insights right there.
0:52
Speaker 2: Yeah. I didn't know I needed that, But that is interesting.
0:55
Speaker 2: That's Ethan for our team, and he's always unearthing these
0:58
Speaker 2: really interesting data points, and a lot of them have
1:00
Speaker 2: to do with how the markets are behaving under a
1:03
Speaker 2: Trump regime. I mean, it is a unique situation. I
1:07
Speaker 2: think everybody who's gone through it realizes it seems like
1:11
Speaker 2: there's a lot of chaos. Every other day, the sky's falling,
1:14
Speaker 2: and the media is just goes bananas, and a lot
1:17
Speaker 2: of times they're very negative. It's like, oh my god,
1:19
Speaker 2: it's finally the markets are going to crash. Finally things
1:22
Speaker 2: are bad, and then it isn't. I mean, I have
1:25
Speaker 2: the numbers here. In Trump one point oh stocks one
1:28
Speaker 2: up eighty percent during that four years. That's a sixteen
1:33
Speaker 2: percent annualized return, so that's a little better than average
1:35
Speaker 2: average is like ten. And in Trump two point zero,
1:39
Speaker 2: stocks are up twenty five percent and that's sixteen percent annualized,
1:43
Speaker 2: So you've gotten sixteen percent annualized return. However, what you've
1:47
Speaker 2: had to have done is just sort of ignore a
1:50
Speaker 2: couple really extreme situations and a more twitchy market. And
1:55
Speaker 2: Vanguard investors I think have done a good job of that.
1:57
Speaker 2: Not everybody. I think, honestly, some of the pros might
2:00
Speaker 2: be actually lagging because if you've taken the bait, you
2:03
Speaker 2: haven't done well. But supposedly, if you are a really
2:07
Speaker 2: good trader, has been opportunities now and then. An Ethan
2:09
Speaker 2: has really found some data in the ETFs and the
2:13
Speaker 2: market that I think really help put numbers behind what
2:17
Speaker 2: everybody's feeling being a trader or an investor under a
2:21
Speaker 2: Trump presidency.
2:22
Speaker 1: So to wade us through these years of anxiety that
2:26
Speaker 1: we've all endured to come to trading versus investing insights
2:31
Speaker 1: under President Trump is Athanasio Sera Vegas, who's a research
2:35
Speaker 1: analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, this time on trillions. How to
2:42
Speaker 1: invest during a Trump presidency? Ethan welcome back to trillions.
2:47
Speaker 3: Hey, nice to be backs intro.
2:49
Speaker 1: Eric. Yeah, it's like STATUSY.
2:51
Speaker 3: Didn't know you needed you needed?
2:53
Speaker 1: Okay, So March happened and I noticed, you know, there's basketball,
2:59
Speaker 1: so March madness. But there's been a number of things
3:03
Speaker 1: that happened during Trump presidencies in March. Break that down
3:07
Speaker 1: for us.
3:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, if that's how it kind of came to me,
3:10
Speaker 3: It's like, didn't we go through this last March? So
3:12
Speaker 3: we had obviously the Iran conflict this year. Last year
3:16
Speaker 3: was Tariff's under his first presidency, was COVID that wasn't
3:19
Speaker 3: really one's fault, but just happened to be towards March.
3:21
Speaker 3: So if you actually look at seasonality under Trump, March
3:25
Speaker 3: is really bad and normally the market's up in March,
3:28
Speaker 3: so it just tends to be really bad under his administration.
3:33
Speaker 3: So I think this is the bigger story here is
3:35
Speaker 3: like just seasonality tends to be a little bit different
3:38
Speaker 3: under Trump's because you don't necessarily know what he's going
3:40
Speaker 3: to do, but he.
3:41
Speaker 1: Might not know what he's gonna do.
3:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't know what something's gonna happen in March. Yeah,
3:45
Speaker 3: just so I don't know what next March will look like.
3:47
Speaker 3: But that said, April then tends to be really really
3:51
Speaker 3: strong under Trump, right because then he either backs off
3:54
Speaker 3: or the issue gets resolved into the market's rip, So
3:57
Speaker 3: they tend to be better than it normally under him.
3:59
Speaker 3: So I think just some things investors should pay attention
4:03
Speaker 3: to is that seasonality might break down under this administration.
4:06
Speaker 3: If you're sort of used to, you know, months performing well,
4:10
Speaker 3: he might completely throw a wrench in this whole you know,
4:13
Speaker 3: seasonality analysis.
4:14
Speaker 1: Eric, Are you really going to take that to the bank.
4:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, this could be noise. I mean the data
4:20
Speaker 2: is really telling and the seasonality, I mean, February is
4:24
Speaker 2: a little bit bad, but marches are really bad. Rest
4:26
Speaker 2: of the year's pretty good, and the summers are great.
4:28
Speaker 2: Under Trump, I think the bigger takeaway is that there
4:33
Speaker 2: is a it's quick like when things seem to happen
4:37
Speaker 2: under Trump, they're very quick. Like remember twenty twenty two
4:40
Speaker 2: the Fed rays rates. That was like a year long affair.
4:42
Speaker 2: You know, it was just bad for a year. It
4:44
Speaker 2: seems like under Trump things are like really bad for
4:48
Speaker 2: a minute and then they go up back up again.
4:50
Speaker 2: And I think that's sort of what the vanguard type
4:53
Speaker 2: investors are learning to ignore and the traders. I think
4:58
Speaker 2: the algos are trying to get ahead of of both
5:00
Speaker 2: the drop and the comeback up. And so there's Algos
5:03
Speaker 2: doing that and then Vanguard doing nothing. But I think
5:07
Speaker 2: where the tricky part comes in is Trump will do
5:09
Speaker 2: or say something. Then the media is like, oh my god,
5:12
Speaker 2: if you know, if these tariffs happen, like everything's screwed up,
5:15
Speaker 2: and they really hammer that and it seems like the
5:18
Speaker 2: market's now going to go down for the next year,
5:20
Speaker 2: and it doesn't. And I think this also brings in
5:23
Speaker 2: that idea of Trump is I think watching the market,
5:28
Speaker 2: and the market I think has been a governor on him.
5:30
Speaker 2: So like whether there was the tariffs or Iran, it
5:32
Speaker 2: seems like every time the SMP got two down, he
5:35
Speaker 2: would like give good news.
5:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's like a check.
5:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like a check on him, because at
5:40
Speaker 2: the end of the day he wants to brag about
5:42
Speaker 2: the stock market, I think, and so I think that's
5:44
Speaker 2: the ultimate takeaway is his bark is sometimes worse than
5:48
Speaker 2: his bite. He does this as a negotiating style, and
5:51
Speaker 2: it's showing up in the data. Now why March, I
5:53
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, we live in the Northeast. This
5:55
Speaker 2: month is the worst month in the year in my opinion.
5:58
Speaker 2: I mean, the Super Bowls over all, the holidays are over,
6:01
Speaker 2: and it's still cold, and you're like, I am so
6:03
Speaker 2: over it. Like so, I don't know if it's like
6:06
Speaker 2: literally the seasonality of the season, but there is some
6:09
Speaker 2: some kind of voodoo going on in March.
6:12
Speaker 1: There used to be three branches of governments. Now there's
6:14
Speaker 1: a fourth. It's called markets. And it's just that that's
6:16
Speaker 1: the check on Trump. Okay, So based on what you're saying,
6:19
Speaker 1: then if March February is bad, March is way worse.
6:23
Speaker 1: April comes back. So maybe I should stay out of
6:26
Speaker 1: things on March, double down, three X, leverage everything in
6:30
Speaker 1: April and then you know, according to conventional wisdom, here, ehn,
6:34
Speaker 1: I sell in May and go a how's that hold up.
6:36
Speaker 3: Oh, that's another one that doesn't work.
6:39
Speaker 1: You know.
6:39
Speaker 3: It's these old technicians. They have like these old terms
6:42
Speaker 3: that they.
6:43
Speaker 1: This one goes way back.
6:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, I read the history of it goes back to
6:45
Speaker 3: actually London even before like the SMP existed with horse races.
6:50
Speaker 3: So basically the premise here is you sell in May
6:53
Speaker 3: and you go come back in October because it's such
6:55
Speaker 3: a week period. But then we looked at the last
6:57
Speaker 3: ten years. Do you know, by the way, that sounds great,
7:00
Speaker 3: but I think for a vacation it sounds good. But
7:02
Speaker 3: for investing it actually hasn't worked.
7:04
Speaker 2: That's normal for Europe.
7:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's all right, Maybe it works there.
7:09
Speaker 2: Our big motto in the team troll is invest in
7:13
Speaker 2: the US so you can retire in Europe.
7:15
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I think that's the move.
7:19
Speaker 1: Well, Ethan's working on that. He's Greek, so you know,
7:21
Speaker 1: you know it's where to end up. So the what
7:23
Speaker 1: is the data show so about selling in May and
7:26
Speaker 1: going away.
7:27
Speaker 3: Let's say if you did this over the last ten years,
7:28
Speaker 3: do you know how many years it was down there
7:31
Speaker 3: in this period? Can you guess?
7:34
Speaker 1: Uh, things have just kind of like trucked upward. I
7:38
Speaker 1: guess one one year, one year.
7:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, and even last year actually you would have missed
7:42
Speaker 3: out on a twenty two percent gain in the market.
7:45
Speaker 3: So I think let's sell, right, I'm not just not
7:47
Speaker 3: invested in general, but it's just it's tough. This adage
7:50
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to work. And then even if you did sell,
7:53
Speaker 3: so what would you do Probably go into bombs, right,
7:55
Speaker 3: So let's just compare stocks first bonds. Only in a
7:57
Speaker 3: handful of years that bombs actually do better than stocks
8:00
Speaker 3: during this period. So I don't know why people still
8:03
Speaker 3: bring this up, right, it just seems like nothing there
8:06
Speaker 3: supports that you should be out of the market for
8:08
Speaker 3: six months. How far back did you go in your
8:10
Speaker 3: research because we're doing ETFs, I went back to using spy,
8:14
Speaker 3: which is thirty three or so years, which I think
8:16
Speaker 3: is pretty you know, I think a pretty.
8:19
Speaker 1: Solid data set.
8:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, and again only a handful of years was it
8:23
Speaker 3: actually down during this period?
8:25
Speaker 1: Right?
8:26
Speaker 2: If anything, sell in March, come in April. That might
8:29
Speaker 2: be the takeaway so far, don't sell in May, especially
8:31
Speaker 2: because the sommer months under Trump are also very good.
8:34
Speaker 2: But I think, like Ethan said, like just don't sell,
8:36
Speaker 2: and I think that's what the Van Guardians have figured
8:39
Speaker 2: out because every time there's the sell off, the most
8:42
Speaker 2: of the money into cheap beatis still comes in. One
8:44
Speaker 2: other interesting thing, and this is where I come to
8:46
Speaker 2: my intro of like, you know, whether the Detroit Tigers
8:50
Speaker 2: are like what the record is at night? You know
8:52
Speaker 2: on a Tuesday, is that you have a stat here
8:55
Speaker 2: days of the week under Trump, So you have Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
9:00
Speaker 2: Every single day of the week is up above the
9:03
Speaker 2: average except one which is way below the average. Again,
9:08
Speaker 2: this is like the day of the week version of
9:10
Speaker 2: the months, and that day is Thursday. So there's just
9:14
Speaker 2: something going on with Thursdays where it's just awful under Trump.
9:17
Speaker 2: Every other day, fine, what is that?
9:20
Speaker 3: I think the first one we talked about Marx, that's
9:23
Speaker 3: just coincidental. This one, I think actually has a little
9:25
Speaker 3: bit more merit. I know it sounds ridiculous or like
9:27
Speaker 3: days of the week, but honestly, under Trump, it's exhausting, right,
9:32
Speaker 3: you don't know what he's going to say, what's going
9:33
Speaker 3: to happen during the weekend. So I think what is
9:35
Speaker 3: happening is people don't want to hold over the weekend.
9:38
Speaker 3: They want to sell their positions a d risk before
9:40
Speaker 3: they go into Friday and over the weekend. So I
9:42
Speaker 3: think that's why there's more downloaded pressure on SAT on Thursdays.
9:46
Speaker 3: Just like I don't know what's going to happen. I
9:48
Speaker 3: don't want to be exposed to all this risk, and
9:51
Speaker 3: what tends to happen is not all the trading happens
9:53
Speaker 3: in the middle of the week Tuesday and Wednesday. So again,
9:56
Speaker 3: I know it sounds kind of ridiculous, but I think
9:58
Speaker 3: that is why there's a lot of de risking happening
10:01
Speaker 3: towards the end of.
10:01
Speaker 1: The week so that we can have a decent Friday.
10:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just enjoy your weekend started working on a Friday.
10:08
Speaker 1: So Thursdays, if you're gonna be trading, Thursdays the ones
10:12
Speaker 1: to watch out for.
10:25
Speaker 3: I nen though there's twenty four hour trading, but it's like,
10:27
Speaker 3: I don't know, that's exhausting. They're gonna be checking your
10:30
Speaker 3: accounts on the weekends, so if I don't know, you
10:32
Speaker 3: gotta get away from it for a little bit. So
10:35
Speaker 3: I think that's what's happening with this Thursday phenomenon.
10:37
Speaker 1: Talk to me about night moves now, I don't want
10:41
Speaker 1: to know everything about your night moves. But just like
10:43
Speaker 1: how it really the trumpet, I mean those night moves,
10:47
Speaker 1: the g version please.
10:48
Speaker 3: I think very similar to the Thursday phenomenon, and I
10:53
Speaker 3: think it works with a couple acid classes. So the
10:55
Speaker 3: night move is you would only hold the positions over right,
11:00
Speaker 3: so you buy it the clothes and then sell it
11:02
Speaker 3: the open. If you look at that relative to what
11:05
Speaker 3: the SMP is doing intra day like normal market hours,
11:08
Speaker 3: it's actually been better to hold overnight, but it's also
11:11
Speaker 3: been a lot more viold. And I think this feeds
11:13
Speaker 3: in again to the trump You know, you don't want time.
11:15
Speaker 3: He's not going to tweet between nine thirty and four.
11:17
Speaker 3: You might tweet whenever, so you tend to have these
11:20
Speaker 3: really violent moves overnight, a pop up or down. I
11:24
Speaker 3: think this phenomenon is kind of catching on because now
11:26
Speaker 3: there's a bitcoin ETF that does this, and that one
11:28
Speaker 3: kind of makes sense, this twenty four hour trading and bitcoin.
11:32
Speaker 3: So I think, again similar to the Thursday thing, people
11:35
Speaker 3: don't want to hold overnight, so they'll be selling during
11:38
Speaker 3: the day, and then there's a move that happens, you know,
11:40
Speaker 3: before the open, and you know and that seems to
11:43
Speaker 3: be working.
11:44
Speaker 1: And now bring it back to your research, like, what
11:46
Speaker 1: what is the tangible takeaway here?
11:48
Speaker 3: Don't hold the market during market hours, don't hold the
11:51
Speaker 3: S and P which is ridiculous, right, Like, I don't
11:53
Speaker 3: know how how much long jeopardy there is to it,
11:55
Speaker 3: but it just seems that this holding it overnight has
11:59
Speaker 3: been better been holding it during the day or more
12:02
Speaker 3: of the returns have come overnight. This doesn't always work,
12:05
Speaker 3: like there's been years where this doesn't work, but under Trump,
12:08
Speaker 3: it seems that this is more like.
12:10
Speaker 2: Profound yeah, or just again hold the whole time.
12:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't overthinking.
12:19
Speaker 2: We talk about that a lot on the team. It's
12:21
Speaker 2: like you know that midwit meme where there's like the
12:24
Speaker 2: dumb dumb and then the Jedi, and then there's the
12:26
Speaker 2: guy up at the top in the middle of the
12:28
Speaker 2: bell curve who's like, oh, we're gonna sell here by
12:31
Speaker 2: here do this, and all these numbers and greeks are
12:33
Speaker 2: coming out of his mouth, and like, honestly, like just
12:37
Speaker 2: whole good things are really the simple way to do this.
12:41
Speaker 2: It's interesting about Athen's overnight study. He also found, unrelated
12:45
Speaker 2: to Trump, that bitcoin actually did better outside of US hours.
12:49
Speaker 2: In fact, almost all the returns since the ETFs came out,
12:52
Speaker 2: we're off of overnight sessions. And they actually now have
12:56
Speaker 2: an ETF that does that, called the night I forget
13:00
Speaker 2: what it's called night owl.
13:03
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, cooin one. Yeah.
13:06
Speaker 2: By the way, so his research found the data to
13:08
Speaker 2: be true, but then since the ETF has come out,
13:10
Speaker 2: it's underperforming the regular one.
13:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is the danger with this kind of stuff, right,
13:16
Speaker 3: and yeah, we can find cool stats and anomalies, but
13:19
Speaker 3: you know, sometimes they don't necessarily translate into good investment ideas.
13:24
Speaker 1: Okay, what you are describing throughout here kind of makes sense,
13:29
Speaker 1: Like just keep buying good stuff, hold it, don't make
13:33
Speaker 1: dumb decisions. Also, don't take you know, may till October
13:37
Speaker 1: off right rational? Uh, it does feel just as a
13:42
Speaker 1: civilian through all of this that there's a lot more freakouts.
13:45
Speaker 1: Is that does that? Is that real? Uh?
13:48
Speaker 3: Definitely? Again, going back to you don't know what he's
13:51
Speaker 3: going to tweet. I think it's two things. One, just
13:53
Speaker 3: the growth of ETFs. They're becoming a bigger part of trading,
13:57
Speaker 3: so the numbers will go up. You know, we probably
14:00
Speaker 3: should inflation the justices, but nonetheless under Trump. So last
14:04
Speaker 3: year and then this year, we like to use sixty
14:07
Speaker 3: billion as a number, like if the SMP trades more
14:09
Speaker 3: than this, spy, this is sort of what we call
14:11
Speaker 3: like a freak out level. It's a really aggressive threshold.
14:16
Speaker 3: Happened something like twenty plus times last year. It's a
14:19
Speaker 3: daily number, daily number, and this year is already a
14:22
Speaker 3: record and we're only in April, right, and a lot
14:25
Speaker 3: of times normally this happens during down markets, but with
14:29
Speaker 3: him there's also a lot of trading with upside too.
14:33
Speaker 3: So again I think it's just whether people are tense
14:35
Speaker 3: under him, or they feel maybe the market's more fragile
14:39
Speaker 3: in general. Anytime there's like something comes out of his mouth,
14:42
Speaker 3: there's this quick trigger that people want to sell. There's
14:45
Speaker 3: a lot of rebalancing going on, maybe some profit taking.
14:48
Speaker 3: So there's definitely this elevated tension in the market than
14:52
Speaker 3: there were in years when he's not in his president.
14:55
Speaker 2: In March this year, Jual the all ETFs traded nine trillion.
14:59
Speaker 2: That is far a record. It's almost like forty percent
15:03
Speaker 2: over the record, and it is just extraordinary. So I
15:07
Speaker 2: think a inflation like a trillion isn't what it used
15:09
Speaker 2: to be. But I do think again also the popularity
15:13
Speaker 2: of ETFs, people lean on them more when there's a problem.
15:16
Speaker 2: But I think in general, I think what you have
15:18
Speaker 2: is a lot of algos set up that like literally
15:21
Speaker 2: are linked to his Twitter and like his press conferences.
15:24
Speaker 2: I remember this from Trump one point zero, and I
15:26
Speaker 2: just think that algos go wild trying to again front
15:30
Speaker 2: run a quick sellof and then front run the buyback,
15:33
Speaker 2: and so you have just machines fighting each other based
15:37
Speaker 2: on his tweets and whatnot. Because the ETF flows into
15:40
Speaker 2: like regular stuff, it's pretty consistent, and so I think
15:44
Speaker 2: a lot of this selling is like algos, and obviously
15:48
Speaker 2: ETFs becoming more popular and even used by some of
15:50
Speaker 2: the hedge funds based on these algos. So but that's
15:53
Speaker 2: why ETFs broke the volume record last year and are
15:57
Speaker 2: probably a shoe in to break it this year. There Joel,
16:00
Speaker 2: the ETFs may trade close to one hundred trillion dollars
16:03
Speaker 2: in volume this year. I'm old enough to remember when
16:06
Speaker 2: like twenty thirty trillion was a record year, and they're
16:09
Speaker 2: going to break the record. Last year, the record was
16:11
Speaker 2: set at fifty five sixty they're on pace for like
16:14
Speaker 2: ninety two ninety five trillion. It's unbelieved when we're going
16:17
Speaker 2: to pass last year's mark, I mean probably like August
16:23
Speaker 2: September at this rate, all right, which is wild. Yeah,
16:27
Speaker 2: it's it's crazy. But I think Trump's part of that.
16:29
Speaker 2: I think the other part of it is just as
16:31
Speaker 2: way more products and way more people using ETFs. Even
16:35
Speaker 2: some of the bigger fish that have come around and
16:37
Speaker 2: use them for certain things. They when they trade, they
16:39
Speaker 2: had trade with a lot of money, and so the
16:41
Speaker 2: dollar volume number definitely gets inflated by them.
16:44
Speaker 1: Spy makes for a really great proxy for research like this,
16:48
Speaker 1: But I'm curious because it's kind of not the same
16:52
Speaker 1: thing that it used to be, right as like it's
16:54
Speaker 1: still you know, if you're looking at trading like it's
16:57
Speaker 1: it's still number one, but you've got like VU an
17:00
Speaker 1: IVV that have really starting to like erode some of
17:03
Speaker 1: that number one feeling. You have to account for that
17:08
Speaker 1: by like you know, broadening your s and P five
17:10
Speaker 1: hundred research a little bit.
17:12
Speaker 3: I think eventually we're gonna have to. Then. I think
17:14
Speaker 3: with that, the fact that it still reaches these thresholds
17:17
Speaker 3: is still impressive. Because it's competing with more products now,
17:21
Speaker 3: but I agree. I think at some point we're probably
17:22
Speaker 3: gonna have to look at an aggregate of a bunch
17:25
Speaker 3: of smp ets just because the growth of the I mean,
17:28
Speaker 3: the VO is about to hit a trillion dollars, so
17:31
Speaker 3: you know that's significant, not nothing, So it needs to
17:34
Speaker 3: be accounted for.
17:35
Speaker 1: Eric says, trillion is not anything anymore like now that
17:37
Speaker 1: we now that we have inflation. But I you know,
17:40
Speaker 1: I apologize in advance that I just made your research
17:42
Speaker 1: a little bit more complicated.
17:43
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to change the name of this podcast.
17:45
Speaker 3: Inflation adjusts that eventually trillions Moss.
17:49
Speaker 1: Okay, your final insight. Don't fight the Fed or the
17:53
Speaker 1: White House. What's that about?
17:55
Speaker 3: Man? Okay, So this is not our idea. But this
17:57
Speaker 3: was a NETF that was filed called the Government Griff
18:02
Speaker 3: GRFT Creative. It's from Tuttle. Uh So basically this was soccer. Yeah,
18:09
Speaker 3: this was to buy companies that are closely tied to
18:12
Speaker 3: the government's current administration. And so you know, we there's
18:17
Speaker 3: some you know, no one wants to list it. That's
18:20
Speaker 3: the problem. That's why it's still in filing. So we
18:23
Speaker 3: tried to recreate it, and for the most part you
18:25
Speaker 3: can get some real it's pretty simple, like the government
18:28
Speaker 3: is taking steaks in these certain companies. Trump Intel's one,
18:33
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's been a good one, or he's literally
18:35
Speaker 3: putting tickers in his tweets. Right, So, if let's say,
18:37
Speaker 3: if we were to build a portfolio of this, it
18:40
Speaker 3: would have done really well, right compared to the S
18:42
Speaker 3: and P. Even if you bought it after you don't
18:44
Speaker 3: know when they're going to take these positions. Even if
18:46
Speaker 3: you buy it after, it's done way better than the
18:49
Speaker 3: S and P five hundred. So just we had this idea,
18:51
Speaker 3: it's just sometimes don't overthink it, right however you feel
18:55
Speaker 3: about government taking states, steaks and companies, but all the
18:58
Speaker 3: most if you built this basket, well most of them
19:01
Speaker 3: have been up ever since they took a stake in it.
19:04
Speaker 3: And there's something that exists out there. There's one that
19:06
Speaker 3: tracks picks from Democratic candidates and Republican candidates, so those
19:10
Speaker 3: names would probably be in this portfolio as well. But yeah,
19:13
Speaker 3: just instead of you know, don't fight what they're going
19:16
Speaker 3: to buy, they're literally telling you what tickers they're buying,
19:19
Speaker 3: and that just for now has been a strategy that's
19:21
Speaker 3: paid off if you ended up falling into those same tickers.
19:24
Speaker 2: All right, Joel, let me read some of the stocks
19:26
Speaker 2: that Ethan put in his basket and why so, Intel,
19:30
Speaker 2: MP Materials, Lithium, America's Trilogy Metals, and USA Rare Earth.
19:36
Speaker 2: Those are all literal government stakes, and all of them
19:39
Speaker 2: are up a ton, except Trilogy is about flat. But
19:42
Speaker 2: that's you got in retrospect. How obvious Navidia and AMD
19:49
Speaker 2: are revenue sharing. They're both up palenteered down. That was
19:53
Speaker 2: one where he just endorsed it, and then there's some
19:56
Speaker 2: other ones based on the Golden Dome and then Trump
20:00
Speaker 2: ties like American Bitcoin that's down a lot. So not
20:03
Speaker 2: all of them did well, but as a group, they've
20:06
Speaker 2: done very well. And again this is a so it's
20:09
Speaker 2: interesting that you could package this in the ETF. I
20:13
Speaker 2: will say that the government grift ETF from tuttle it. Honestly,
20:17
Speaker 2: if it come out, I think it would start to
20:19
Speaker 2: see some assets, but no exchange will list it. I
20:22
Speaker 2: think the title is just a little too cynical, but
20:25
Speaker 2: I've never seen that droll. This is like total punk rock,
20:29
Speaker 2: where like it's so controversial, like none of the major
20:32
Speaker 2: exchanges will even let a trade there ses he approved it.
20:35
Speaker 2: It's just the exchanges that won't list it.
20:37
Speaker 3: Which is honestly kind of baffling. Because you have twoth
20:39
Speaker 3: social ETFs, you have a one that has ticker GOP.
20:43
Speaker 3: It's just interesting that this is where the line was
20:45
Speaker 3: drawn because I think you can you know, there are
20:47
Speaker 3: some controversial products out there now, so it just seems
20:50
Speaker 3: like this is this is one they don't want to touch.
20:52
Speaker 1: What's the end around or is there one?
20:54
Speaker 3: Yeah? Maybe to Eric's point, the name, you know, this
20:56
Speaker 3: one's a little bit too in your face about government drifting.
20:59
Speaker 1: But is there any other option for him to find
21:01
Speaker 1: a way to list I don't know.
21:03
Speaker 3: There's one that actually on our team, Andre at Flag
21:06
Speaker 3: the ticker's GOP, which has a lot of the same names,
21:09
Speaker 3: which is just this tracks buys from Republican candidates based
21:13
Speaker 3: on public file.
21:13
Speaker 1: That GLP ones.
21:16
Speaker 3: Opportunity, so that one has a lot of the same
21:19
Speaker 3: names that Eric mentioned. Is kind of a backdoor way
21:21
Speaker 3: to get this kind of exposure. But there's also this
21:24
Speaker 3: Texas exchange that is, yeah, might want to stock exchange,
21:29
Speaker 3: they might be open to it. Just says you know,
21:31
Speaker 3: being a little bit more differentiated than some of the
21:33
Speaker 3: other ones that are unwilling to list it.
21:34
Speaker 1: All right, wonder what ethan? Thanks so much for joining
21:38
Speaker 1: us on Trillions.
21:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks for having me on.
21:43
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You can
21:46
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Speaker 1: produced by Magnus Hendrickson and Kishav Pundia.
22:00
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