Latest / Career Skills with Fexingo: Hard Skills, Soft Skills, and Future-Proofing Your Career / Skill Scarcity: How to Know What's Actually Rare
Transcript
- Lucas: So I was talking to a friend who runs a data team at a mid-sized logistics company, and she said something that stopped me. She's been trying to hire a senior data engineer for nine months. Nine months. And she's not being picky about the stack, either. She just needs someone who can build pipelines that don't fall over when the data doubles every quarter. Luna: Nine months is a long time. I assume it's a salary thing or a location thing? Lucas: That's what I assumed too. But she's offering well above market, and the role is fully remote. The problem is that the people who can actually do this well are already employed and not looking. And the ones who are looking—they have the title on their resume, but they've never dealt with data at that scale. So she's stuck in this loop of interviewing people who talk a good game but can't handle the volume. Luna: So it's a scarcity problem. Not just any data engineer, but one with specific experience. Lucas: Exactly. And that got me thinking about how we talk about skills in our careers. We usually focus on what we're good at, or what we enjoy, or what pays well. But there's this other dimension we don't think about enough: how rare is this skill in the market? Because a skill that's in high demand but also in high supply—like, say, basic spreadsheet proficiency—isn't going to move the needle on your career the way something like 'can architect a data warehouse that scales to petabyte-level' might. Luna: Right, so it's not just about the skill itself, it's about the supply and demand of that skill. Lucas: Precisely. Today I want to get into this idea of 'skill scarcity.' It's a lens that's helped me make better decisions about what to learn next, and I think it can do the same for you. Luna: I love that. So how do you actually gauge scarcity? I mean, you can't just look at job boards and see a big number. Lucas: Well, you can get a read on it, but you have to look at the right signals. My friend's situation is a perfect example. She's posting a role that's been open for months, and she's not finding qualified candidates. That's a scarcity signal. But you can also look at it from the other side: when you see a skill that's mentioned in tons of job posts but also has a ton of people who claim it on LinkedIn, that's a sign of oversupply. Luna: So it's about the ratio. But how do you find that ratio? Is there a tool or something? Lucas: There are tools, but I find that a more qualitative approach works better. Let me share a little framework I've been playing with. I call it the 'five-post rule.' Basically, when you're curious about a new skill, you go to a job site and you look at the first five postings that ask for that skill. You read them closely. What you're looking for is the level of specificity and the tone of desperation. Luna: Desperation. I like that. So what does desperation look like in a job posting? Lucas: It looks like a posting that's been up for a while, that's been reposted, that includes phrases like 'we've been looking for months' or 'must be willing to hit the ground running.' It's also when they list very specific requirements that narrow the pool significantly—like 'must have experience with event-driven architectures at scale' rather than just 'knows cloud computing.' Luna: So a generic posting is a sign of low scarcity, and a very specific one is a sign of high scarcity. That makes sense. Lucas: Right. And the second thing you look for is the salary range. A skill that's scarce will often command a premium. Not always, but if you see a role that's offering twenty percent above the median for that title, that's a strong signal that the market is struggling to find people. Luna: But you can't always see the salary range. Some postings don't include it. Lucas: True, but you can use that as a signal too. If a company is vague about salary, it might mean they're trying to negotiate down. Or it might mean they're so desperate they want to get you in the door before you see the number. Either way, you're gathering data. Luna: Okay, so you've identified a scarce skill. What do you do with that? Do you drop everything and learn it? Lucas: Not necessarily. You want to think about the trajectory. A skill can be scarce for two reasons. It can be scarce because it's new and not many people have it yet—like, say, something in AI alignment or quantum machine learning. Or it can be scarce because it's old and unfashionable but still critical—like COBOL programming for legacy banking systems. Both are scarce, but they have very different career implications. Luna: That's a good point. The new skill might be a bubble, and the old skill might be a golden handcuff. Lucas: Exactly. So you have to look at whether the demand is growing or shrinking. For the new skill, you want to see if it's being adopted across industries or if it's just a niche. For the old skill, you want to see if the systems it supports are being retired or if they're so entrenched that they'll be around for decades. Luna: So how do you judge that? Any rule of thumb? Lucas: One thing I look at is the conference circuit. If a skill has a dedicated conference that's growing in attendance year over year, that's a sign of healthy demand. If the conference is shrinking or being absorbed into a bigger event, that might mean the skill is becoming commoditized. Luna: That's clever. So you're kind of reading the ecosystem, not just the job boards. Lucas: Right. And you can also look at what's happening in adjacent fields. For example, my friend's data engineering problem—it's not just about knowing SQL or Python. It's about understanding data modeling, pipeline orchestration, cloud cost management, and a bunch of other things that have to come together. So the scarcity isn't really about one skill, it's about a combination that's rarely found in one person. Luna: So it's a skill stack, again. We've talked about that before, but here it's about the stack being rare, not just deep. Lucas: Exactly. And that's a crucial distinction. You can have a stack that's all common skills, but if the combination is unusual—say, a marketer who also understands data engineering—that can be just as scarce as a single rare skill. Actually, often more so, because it's harder to fake. Luna: So when you're thinking about your own career, how do you decide which scarce skill to go after? There's only so much time in the day. Lucas: That's the million-dollar question. I think you have to balance scarcity with your own aptitude and interest. If a skill is scarce but you hate doing it, you're not going to sustain the learning curve. So you want to find that sweet spot where your natural strengths meet genuine market demand. Luna: So it's not just about picking the most obscure thing you can find. It's about finding something that's both valuable and fits you. Lucas: Exactly. And one way to test that is to look at the 'scarcity premium.' If you can find a role that's been open for a long time and the salary keeps creeping up, that's a premium you could potentially capture. But you have to be honest with yourself about whether you can do the job. A scarcity premium doesn't help you if you're not qualified. Luna: Fair point. So let's say someone is listening and they're thinking, 'I want to future-proof my career. How do I find my next scarce skill?' What's your practical advice? Lucas: I'd say start with the five-post rule, but on a skill you're curious about. But also, look at the job postings that are NOT working for companies. You can't see those directly, but you can infer them from the fact that a posting has been up for months. Sites like LinkedIn show you when a job was posted, and if it's been there for a while, that's a clue. Luna: So you're saying, look at the jobs that are hard to fill, and then reverse engineer what skills they're asking for? Lucas: Yes. And you can also go the other way. Look at the skills that are being mentioned in job postings that are getting a LOT of applications. Those are skills that are oversupplied. For example, 'data analysis' as a general term—I bet that's in tons of postings, but there are also tons of people who can do it. So that's not a scarce skill anymore. Luna: It's like the difference between knowing how to use a spreadsheet and knowing how to design a data pipeline that saves the company millions. Totally different leagues. Lucas: Right. And that's the kind of shift you want to be looking for. As technology evolves, skills get commoditized. What was once a scarce skill becomes table stakes. So you want to be on the frontier, not in the rearview mirror. Luna: So it's a constant process. You can't just learn one thing and be set for life. Lucas: No, and that's actually a good thing, in a way. It keeps things interesting. And it also means that if you're paying attention, you can see these shifts coming. Like, a few years ago, 'cloud architect' was a scarce skill. Now it's more common. But 'cloud cost optimization specialist' is getting scarcer because everyone's realizing they're overspending on AWS and Azure. Luna: That's a great example. So you're always looking for the next bottleneck, the thing that's holding companies back and that few people can solve. Lucas: Exactly. And that's where the real career value is. You want to be the person who solves a problem that companies are desperate to solve, and that few others can. That's the definition of a scarce skill. Luna: I have to say, this is one of those episodes that makes me want to go update my LinkedIn profile and start scanning job boards with fresh eyes. Lucas: I'm glad to hear that. And you know, it's a process we can all benefit from. And it's also one of the reasons we do this show ad-free. We want to give you practical, no-nonsense career advice without any sponsors pulling the strings. If you've found value in that, and you want to support us, you can do that at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. No pressure, but it does help us keep doing what we're doing. Luna: Yeah, it's a nice way to say thanks if you've gotten something out of these conversations. We really appreciate it. Lucas: So, going back to the five-post rule—I want to leave you with a challenge. This week, pick a skill you've been curious about, or one that you think might be undervalued in your industry. Spend twenty minutes doing the five-post rule. Read the postings carefully. Notice the language, the salary, the length of time it's been up. Then ask yourself: is this skill scarce, or is it oversupplied? And if it's scarce, is it scarce in a way that's growing or shrinking? That simple exercise can give you a direction for your next learning project. Luna: And if you find a posting that's been up for nine months and you're qualified, maybe you should apply, because you might have some negotiating power. Lucas: Ha, exactly. That's the flip side of scarcity. It's not just about your own career planning; it's also about recognizing when you have leverage. So go out there, do your research, and find your edge. Thanks for listening, and we'll talk to you next time. Luna: Take care, everyone.