Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why Everybody is WRONG about the Markets + Stock Market News 03 May 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why Everybody is WRONG about the Markets + Stock Market News 03 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I'm joined here by my chief researcher, winston, of course, and today is a big day.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: We've got a bunch of really, really important things that just happened that are moving the market and that have got Wall Street wrong-footed I mean properly wrong-footed.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: The hedge funds are tearing their hair out, as are many of the institutional investors, and it's an opportunity for you and me and Winston.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: So I want to explain that to you so you walk away from this in the next couple of minutes as the best informed investor out there.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to walk you through big news on tariffs, where Wall Street is wrong, and also, well, there is one stock that's better than 468 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: You might not know which one that is.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I'll also tell you whether Amazon is cheap right now.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: If Apple is done, are we getting a short squeeze and is it time to go against the crowd?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: And I want to ask you also a little question here that, if you would like to make money consistently and I put a little question in the chart here for you as well, and I like what you guys are answering on that front, so let me share my screen with you and you can see what I can see and you can see clearly.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Now the rain is gone.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Anybody capture that.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Catch that reference, put it in the chat down below.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So we've got big tariff news.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Wall Street is wrong yet again.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: We've got a big stock Amazon, apple, short squeeze.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: And should we be going against the crowd here right now?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I want to make that really clear to you and, if that will be useful for you, put a U for useful in the chat, so I know that you're actually here and not just some sort of bot sent by the algorithm to make it appear as if Google has got a lot of users on YouTube.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: And here's the big news China, just very quietly, no announcement exempted 25% of US imports from tariffs.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It's about $40 billion, by the way.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Why are they doing that?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Well, it's stuff that the Chinese economy actually needs, thanks for all the use.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: So it's stuff like aircraft parts, for example.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: If you bought a Boeing airline and you don't have parts, well, you're going to fall out of the sky, so it's things like that that they need.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: They also need ingredients to make plastics, for example, and there's a bunch of other stuff that they literally just need.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So they are cutting that, no negotiation, just quietly dropping it, and that could, of course, kick off a little bit of a, you know, slightly friendlier tone between these two giants, which the market should like, one would think.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: So we'll look at the market in just a second here.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: The ethane exactly that's the stuff.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: That's the stuff which is sort of an oil derivative which you need to make plastic.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Now that's the stuff.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: That's the stuff which is sort of an oil derivative which you need to make plastic.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Now wall street is literally got it wrong.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Elliot is elegant, rather sums it up, says this is a scenario.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Nobody wanted the positioning.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Everybody's de-risked, um, everybody is underweight.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: The mac eight so they're all basically sold tech stocks.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So they all sold tech and stocks in general.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: But now suddenly mega cap tech stocks are like the thing that's going up, and we'll discuss that in a moment.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So why is that important to you?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Why do you care about Wall Street, excuse me?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Because they have all the money and if they're wrong, well, they don't just sit there and go.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I was wrong, I'm just going to wait it out.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: No, they actually change direction.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: That is the one thing one must say.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Wall street doesn't have right.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: They're in the wrong stock.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: They just get out of it pretty, pretty quickly.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Uh, the rain has gone richer, absolutely.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for the musical reference there.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: My brain is full of musical references.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: That's how I learned English literally pop music.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So pretty much every sentence that comes out of my mind is part of a pop song from the 90s, 80s and 90s.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: It's very, very disturbing what's going on out there.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: So what are you going to buy?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Are you going to buy the Max 8 or the Max 7 or the Max 8 or whatever?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Well, I think the real question is and I put that in the poll here and I can see 62% of you said you'd rather follow a couple of rules.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: 31% of you you want to become investment geniuses Well, good luck to you.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And 7% of you just like being really stressed or have a sense of humor.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So if you could actually make consistent money as an investor with literally zero intellect, zero emotions, just by following a couple of rules, what could you then do?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Well, you could retire, you could spend time with your family, you could travel, you could do something meaningful, you could adopt 19 golden retrievers here's one of them and have a beautiful life.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: And that is literally what money is for.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: It's not about money.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It's not about being rich or having some sort of number, or having a Lamborghini as it wins to know it's not, or having a Lamborghini as it wins to know it's not.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: It's about the ability to decide what to do with your time, and the whole mission here, of this little community and this channel, is to help you along that route, because I have people who help me and it's changed my life and helped me to retire, and I get a kick out of helping people do the same thing.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: So come and join us if you want to do that, if you actually just want to retire, if you want to live a better life, even if you're already retired.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: You want to retire better, right?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Then join me at felixfrenzelorg slash webinar, when and where Tomorrow, 11am, new York time, and I'll teach you, literally.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you the rules how do we pick great stocks, where do we sell?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I'll give you my buys it's my top buys from the week as well, so you can see the theory put into practice.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: It's not just some sort of random textbook I'm throwing at you.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I'm actually going to give you that.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Baja says I qualify zero into like brilliant.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: My friend, you and me can be friends.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: You don't need to be the sharpest tool in the box to be a good investor.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Actually, often it's useful not to be the sharpest tool in the box, because it's easier for you to follow rules.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: The really, really smart people they just question them all the time and you just follow it for a while, just learn the process, trust the process.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: That's really what it is.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: That's why banks don't hire the smartest people, generally speaking, they just want people who actually follow rules.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So if you're a super genius, you have a tougher time.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Seriously, you do.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I mean for cat pregnancies and Lamborghinis.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, that is a side effect.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: As you get wealthy, you will have your cat count compound very rapidly.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I went from three cats to nine cats in the space of six months.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So there's a real risk there.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I love the poorly educated.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: No, I wouldn't say that.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: I think we shouldn't be poorly educated.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: That's really not what we'll be aiming for here.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, good morning to everybody here.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So right, amazon, right Ardings.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Yesterday headlines were like oh, they missed.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: What did they miss?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: On Revenue slightly, but let me show you this Amazon Web Services, their cloud business.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Their revenue is now $111 billion the last 12 months.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: $111 billion that is more than the revenue of 468 companies in the S&P 500.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Do you see the significance of this?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: The great companies are so much greater than all the other ones and that's why we want to be in the great ones.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: We don't want to be in the average ones, right?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: That's how we can be relaxed, that's how we can stretch out and enjoy ourselves, like Winston here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: So I'll teach you that tomorrow.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: If you come and join me, if you're coming to join me tomorrow, put an L for learn in the chat, because you want to learn and you'll be there and I look forward to seeing you there.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: And here's another one that baffles me Amazon, which is the yellow line.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Here this chart marvelously has two colors.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: We've got Amazon in yellow and then in green we've got good old Walmart.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Walmart is trading at a higher valuation.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Loving all the L's there guys, excited to see you all there tomorrow.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Walmart is trading at a higher valuation, loving all the L's there guys, excited to see you all there tomorrow.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Actually, I woke up this morning and I look at who signed up and there were like 1100 of you already signed up.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So I was like oh, quickly, quickly increase the size of that room so that you guys can still join, which is what I've done, so you don't have to wear socks.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Travis, you paid attention.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I haven't worn socks all day.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's not true.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I wore socks briefly.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Today I went to the Four Seasons.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: You kind of got to wear socks on that, but other than that, I haven't worn socks, I'm wearing shorts.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I'm walking around barefoot.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: I get odd looks, but I walk around barefoot.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: It's warm, it's nice, it feels good.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Is it legal to drive without shoes?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Anybody know that.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: I'm obviously not saying that I am, but just asking for a friend.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, walmart's more expensive.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Is that?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Because Walmart has all the robots?
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Walmart has all the cloud business.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Walmart has this amazing margin business.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: They sell cheap stuff, generally speaking, at pretty low margins.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: It's kind of odd, right, esther, you hit the like button, just saying Brilliant.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I, like thatul, says no.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, well, I would never.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I would never do such a thing.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Um, yeah, exactly, who's gonna know?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Well, I guess if you get pulled over, there'll be a story.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Or if you told people on uh, on the, on a live stream on youtube, that would also not be very smart, right?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Just hypothetically.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, what about Apple?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Apple is opening.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: This morning the market is not looking particularly beautiful.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: It's down 2.6% here.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Amazon, by the way, is slightly in the green.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Overall, the market is looking pretty good this morning.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: People are saying Apple is over.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: The tariffs are going to cost them $900.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Billion dollars this quarter, allegedly, which seems an extraordinary number.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Can that be right?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: 900 billion?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Is that 900 million?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: It must be 900 million, surely.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it must be 900 million.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Can't be billions.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: That would just be silly, wouldn't it?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: That would be like the us defense budget, or no, it must be million anyway.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Their revenue is still growing 5%, not monstrous, but still growing.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Where is the growth coming from?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Ipads, macs and services?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Now, what people miss here with this is that selling an iPhone is not the same thing as selling services.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Selling an iPhone probably has a I don't know 40% margin.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Selling services will have an 80 margin plus, right, yeah, million, thank you.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like you know, biden, when old age gay gets to you billion, trillion, million.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: It's also the same thing, isn't it?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: So it's a large number, lots of zeros, and the one thing that's growing here and here's a nice little chart is what's actually consistently growing that blue number there I'm pointing at right, and that is services revenue.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So, while it doesn't sound all that sexy, that is worth two times the hardware sales revenue and that's what people like about Apple and that's what people will like about Tesla.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Right, they won't sell you a car.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: They will sell you a car, but they'll make very little money on it.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: They might even sell it basically at cost, but they're going to get a lifetime recurring service revenue, right?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: So, for example, if you signed up to Trade Vision on the iOS store, they will take 30% of your money, which is why it's cheaper to sign up on the website.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: That's why will take 30% of your money, which is why it's cheaper to sign up on the website.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So I'd sign up on the website and that revenue continues forever after right.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: So that's a really, really, really, really brilliant business model.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like a toll booth for the app world, and Soon says the $900 million is only 0, 0.9 of their quarterly revenue.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's staggering, isn't it?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So it's still a good business.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: It's just not like in this super high speed growth and I do think there are concerns that the lack of innovation.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Just they just focus on making like easy to use products, but the lack of innovation does open up the possibility that somebody else will come along and do it better.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Remember the BlackBerry?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: That was the phone everybody used.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Well, certainly.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Or the bank.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: And then the iPhone came out and killed the business completely.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying Apple's going to get killed, but I'm just saying the longer that they don't innovate and they just keep making the same sort of thing slightly better, the more vulnerable they get.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: But the service revenue is staggering.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: So we've got some pretty good earnings here, right, google was good.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Microsoft was good.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Amazon was actually pretty good.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Apple was okay Not brilliant, but okay and at the same time, the funds so institutional money is massively short.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: The Magnificent Seven More so than they've ever been since 2016.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: They're kicking themselves.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: They're sitting in meetings going who is the idiot?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Who sold all the big tech stocks?
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: What are we going to do?
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: So there is a decent chance that those guys are going to pile into them and they're going to push up the big tech stocks into a tremendous spurt of a rally.