Latest / What Bitcoin Did / How AI Could Take Bitcoin to $1 Million | Jordi Visser
Transcript
- 0:00I've never seen a more hated bull market around the greatest innovation technology that the world
- 0:08has ever seen. Agents have not replaced people at work. What has happened is they have not hired
- 0:13people and then the corporate ladder has stopped. So you can't go up any further and the costs
- 0:20haven't changed inside the city. So I think this is what builds the anger is humans do much better
- 0:25with hope. And if hope has been taken away, which is what the corporate ladder and getting more
- 0:29money in the future is, then I think someone is to blame. Data centers are to blame, potentially.
- 0:35I think robots and agents will be taxed. In the world that I'm seeing, the founders are going to
- 0:40own 80, 90, 100% of their business because they don't need employees and they don't need to borrow
- 0:43money. And those are the two things. If you need capital and you need employees, you have to give
- 0:48up a lot of your money. But with AI, you don't need either. So you think that AI is going to be
- 0:52the catalyst that means the people who own the $900 trillion are going to need Bitcoin?
- 0:59Okay, Jordy, I'm very glad to have you on the show.
- 1:03I've been wanting to do this for a little while.
- 1:05You've been on my radar for a bit,
- 1:07but it was really when you did the Bitcoin IPO moment piece
- 1:10that you put on your sub stack
- 1:11that you sort of sprung to my attention.
- 1:14You've been an investor for 30 years, longer?
- 1:1830 plus years.
- 1:19I want to know from your perspective,
- 1:22what you see right now that you feel like everyone's missing.
- 1:27So there's a lot of things people are missing.
- 1:29most of them have to do with AI but the reason I decided to leave the traditional investing world
- 1:37was really you know two major reasons that fit in with a question you had number one I believe that
- 1:44the combination of AI and crypto was going to change the world very very rapidly with the speed
- 1:53coming from AI and the guardrails necessary for the speed coming from the crypto side
- 1:58but there's another angle too i believe that ai was also going to disrupt all
- 2:05bureaucracies and that this was going to be about being in the the speed rail um so i write a lot
- 2:15about the the problems of friction uh bitcoin to me represents the other side of friction
- 2:23that's my viewpoint so I made the decision that when I was talking to people in both the traditional
- 2:30finance world but also as I got more involved in the crypto side and I was kind of listening to what
- 2:35people were saying I very seldom meet anyone at all on either side that talks about what Michael
- 2:42Saylor talked about and it was his I'd say experience and I'm a very big experiential
- 2:48person so I listened to what people said but he's the only person I've heard talk about
- 2:51his business being disrupted by the speed of technology and then also what that led to in
- 2:57the basement and why he was so changes business specifically when you are you talking about when
- 3:02he uh you know first came onto the bitcoin scene he talked a lot about his 500 million dollar
- 3:06melting ice cube of money that he was sat on is that what you're referring to yeah i i mean that
- 3:12is basically to me what every diner on the streets of new york and every you know small business has
- 3:19gone through, which is you can't compete with better technology.
- 3:23And if you don't have this massive capital raising ability.
- 3:29And in his case, he talked about, I couldn't beat Microsoft.
- 3:34I'd have to invest and go a completely different path.
- 3:37And so that trapped feeling, and that's why his line of you don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin
- 3:41finds you, was really what I think people are missing.
- 3:45I think my views are different in terms of the end game.
- 3:47But I think Michael's connection with the technology disruption and the speed of that and the inability to compete was really a big part of it.
- 3:54And he was obviously very early on that train.
- 3:57There's been a lot of talk of sort of institutional investment in Bitcoin.
- 4:01Some people saying it's already here.
- 4:03Obviously, there's been huge wins in terms of like the BlackRock ETF strategy sort of started the institutional investment.
- 4:09But we've not seen that much.
- 4:11Like, I don't feel like we've had the wave of institutional investment that people predicted.
- 4:15would you agree with that and why do you think that's the case we definitely have not um i so
- 4:23let's go back for a second because you said something which um i don't i don't agree with
- 4:28and it's not that we disagree it's that i think what you said it's important for people to hear
- 4:33what michael saylor did that makes his decision unique is he folded and i don't think people
- 4:40realize human beings don't like to fold especially if they've built their own business
- 4:45he folded and said i can't win so i'm going to take this big risk it wasn't an easy risk it was
- 4:51a big risk yeah and he had to go sell his board and all the story that comes with it i think there's
- 4:57thousands of mom pop businesses there's thousands of fords for big companies that don't fold and
- 5:05whatever reason that something he doesn get enough credit for i see so you you saying he was on like the very traditional playbook that path that every company goes on And he said okay that no longer works That was him folding He realized that like your point the melting ice
- 5:21cube, the inevitability and low probability outcomes to get there. And Bitcoin was a
- 5:27better solution for him. He just came at the right time because this was something I couldn't solve
- 5:32for myself, which was how do businesses that are failing?
- 5:36So now let's take it a different way.
- 5:38There's only seven companies working.
- 5:41How do the other billions of individuals compete with seven companies?
- 5:46And what he chose was Bitcoin.
- 5:47Now I don't think individuals themselves should go out there and do it.
- 5:51And we'll get to your institutional question, but I do think every individual needs to think
- 5:56of their own balance sheet the way Michael did, because I always say to like young kids
- 5:59in college, well, you have to care about Geordie Visser university.
- 6:02Like you have an LLC now.
- 6:04You come out, you graduate.
- 6:05Don't think of you work for this company.
- 6:07Think of your path.
- 6:08You're going to work for five, six, seven companies.
- 6:11That's your company.
- 6:13And as you make money and income,
- 6:14you have to decide what to do with your balance sheet.
- 6:16And if you spend it and you don't invest in it,
- 6:19you're probably not going to have as much
- 6:20unless your income is huge.
- 6:21I think if you really take a case study to what he did
- 6:24and get past all of the...
- 6:26He's been his own worst enemy in many ways
- 6:28in terms of the way he's approached it.
- 6:29But I know he doesn't care
- 6:30because he was the one that made the decision the person that makes the first decision in anything
- 6:35and then has a moat around that decision which he does is this so let's get to your institutional
- 6:40question um straddling both places now for two years meaning i've been embraced by the
- 6:47crypto slash bitcoin community um i know everyone in the macro world in the traditional finance
- 6:54world because i've been in it or was in it for 30 years and i developed some everyone developed
- 6:58some sort of respect in there and i've always been a thinker and i've always done content
- 7:02um i think this is a very simple thing michael also says you don't find bitcoin bitcoin finds you
- 7:10well for people that have nine trillion 900 trillion in assets the majority of them are in
- 7:15the top one percent and then when you go down in the top ten you're dealing with almost all of the
- 7:20world's money they don't need bitcoin so the reason they haven't embraced it is because they don't
- 7:26need it the reason they haven't embraced the other guardrails is because they don't care if their
- 7:31money settles in a period of time they don't care europe japan the us they don't care about the
- 7:36valuation we're not talking about you know brazil's imbabwe type hyperinflation we're just
- 7:42talking about okay no confiscation of your money worst case scenario you get a few scares every now
- 7:48and then in the case of europe you know you might get 17 years of no equity performance but it
- 7:54It doesn't really matter because you own a lot of real estate.
- 7:56I think that's starting to change now.
- 7:58And so I always say that one common thread between human beings that I've never like not seen is greed.
- 8:05They care about making money.
- 8:07And if for whatever reason fiat assets stop working, which I believe AI will do to all the 900 trillion,
- 8:13then you're left with a scenario that, oh my gosh, we've got to find something that is growing.
- 8:18And I think that's where crypto is right now.
- 8:20So you think that AI is going to be the catalyst that means the people who own the $900 trillion
- 8:25are going to need Bitcoin?
- 8:28There's no question in my mind.
- 8:31I'm a big, let's say, early stage Jeff Booth disciple in terms of embracing his view that
- 8:39innovation is inherently deflationary.
- 8:44Governments need to fight off the deflation.
- 8:47But at some point, two things happen.
- 8:50And we're at that point.
- 8:52Joseph Schumpeter also said that creative destruction occurs.
- 8:56It ultimately leads to socialism.
- 8:58And that's kind of where we're getting to, except there's another avenue to.
- 9:03So when you get to the point where the deflation gets so bad and the governments, even with
- 9:09their printing, all they're doing is siphoning the money into the wealthiest hands, you get
- 9:14what we have now which is people start comparing their life to the people that have the money but
- 9:20also that money that gets ends up there it drives real estate prices in Australia and in New York
- 9:26to places where the people who serve as police officers and nurses and everything else they
- 9:30can't afford to live there I have three daughters that are in the helping people field they can't
- 9:37afford to live where they want so they have to live outside the city they have to take a long
- 9:40commute so their lives are not good the schooling that they have to pay for if they want to live in
- 9:45manhattan they can't even if they live a a lifestyle where they sacrifice they can't afford
- 9:51to send their kids to school and that's because the distribution wealth has gotten so big so
- 9:55i think the jeff booth argument has reached the breaking point and where ai fits in is ai is a
- 10:01democratizing force for education you don't need to go to school yeah um i believe that when we get
- 10:07to humanoids, the cost of real estate will stop going higher because it'll be much easier to make
- 10:11things. You won't need the shortages of people. In the US, we had to bring in immigrants and we
- 10:15shut off immigration There just not enough reasonably priced labor for the housing market things like that So I a big believer that we reach the end game and people are underestimating AI And you asked at the beginning what are people missing I think everyone is underestimating the speed of AI And I already seen it over the last 12 months That where I
- 10:32spend my life. It's had a big impact on investing markets. If you didn't catch the AI move, you've
- 10:37missed huge returns for many, many names. So I've got so much I want to wash you in there, but
- 10:43everything you described there in terms of people not being able to live where they want to live
- 10:46It is like the fiat degradation of society, essentially.
- 10:50It's the K-shaped economy forcing people out of where they may be from, where they want to live.
- 10:55In Bitcoin, a lot of people talk about if we enter a Bitcoin standard, a hyper-Bitcoinized world,
- 11:01they talk about that scenario as if it's a bit of a utopia and things like that start reversing.
- 11:05Do you think that can be true?
- 11:07I think without AI, no.
- 11:09So what has happened now to change everything is that AI has reached a level where the agentic world is happening.
- 11:21The crypto world, because people don't even want to hear the story, and I see this with AI,
- 11:26when I talk to people about artificial intelligence, I can immediately tell whether they believe in it or they don't.
- 11:31I mean, I was around people today at the event where I can tell very quickly.
- 11:35And as I showed in my video this past weekend, the numbers are staggering of people who use AI and don't use AI.
- 11:45It's all demographics.
- 11:4755 and higher, they don't use AI.
- 11:49So that means my age bracket.
- 11:52I'm one of the 2%.
- 11:55And I don't use it from a chatbot perspective.
- 11:58I build with it.
- 11:59Well, that's what I was going to say.
- 12:00Because there's using AI as if it's Google.
- 12:03And then there's actually using AI.
- 12:04Yeah.
- 12:05And so when I hear economists say, we're going into a depression, we're going to have a big fall, the bubble's going to blow.
- 12:11I'm like, well, of course you say that. You don't use it.
- 12:13So how could you possibly understand?
- 12:15So for me, the utopia that'll come is that without the agentic side, that is the bridge.
- 12:20And I've been using the word bridge a lot lately, which is how do we go from the guardrails are built, they're faster, they're cheaper than the traditional payment system.
- 12:31Tokenization opens up fractional ownership.
- 12:34It opens up anyone owning a stock in any country in a digital virtual platform.
- 12:40Like these are things that should happen.
- 12:42They are very democratizing because it means if you've limited the ability for people to
- 12:47invest in things, the only thing they can really invest in is like an ETF, which allows
- 12:50you to buy fractional shares of Microsoft.
- 12:52So everyone is funneled into U.S.
- 12:55companies and the bigger companies that actually feeds this.
- 12:59Okay, you have a small business.
- 13:00You have no way of raising capital.
- 13:01Why?
- 13:02Well, you can go to the bank and you can borrow for a lot of money.
- 13:04but what if I have a great idea?
- 13:05Sorry, that's the only way you can do it.
- 13:07As opposed to, hey, I have a community of a billion people
- 13:10that love what I do.
- 13:10And I use Justin Bieber as like this example
- 13:12where Justin Bieber had to go to the bank.
- 13:14The bank was Scooter Braun.
- 13:15Braun, he took most of his business.
- 13:17Then he goes off and makes all this money.
- 13:21He would have owned most of that himself,
- 13:23but in today's world of tokenization and programmable money,
- 13:27he would have given his community royalties on his stuff
- 13:30and they'd all be successful.
- 13:31as opposed to Scooter Braun taking all this money.
- 13:34So you get the distribution of wealth
- 13:36that's going to happen through democratization of ownership,
- 13:38the democratization of education, all of those things.
- 13:41But without AI agents that serve as the bridge,
- 13:44the translation, it wouldn't happen, in my opinion.
- 13:48You wouldn't get to the point,
- 13:50because what does it matter if crypto is $3 trillion market cap
- 13:53or $6 trillion, if we've got $900 trillion on the other side?
- 13:56It's a nice little party game,
- 13:57but it's not something that is ever going to be anything.
- 14:00And for people that were early into it, like yourself, more so than me, they deserve the payoff.
- 14:05And the payoff comes when the AI agents come and that just happens.
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- 16:53So I do want to understand your sort of AI framework a little more. So you say that
- 16:58Bitcoin or crypto will be the guardrail. What does that actually mean?
- 17:02So agents can't work on Visa and MasterCard. They want to work on speed. They have to make
- 17:1017 transactions and their goal is going to be very simple, save people money. So Muse just came out.
- 17:17all you have to do is go type into anything and say what are the majority of people saying about
- 17:24the benefits from muse and all of them have to do with saving money and time that's what ai agents
- 17:28allow you to do yeah i use it all day long um before we sat down when i was downstairs waiting
- 17:35for you i literally had the time to go and this has probably happened to everyone you know when
- 17:40you try to use a new service um this happened because i had to sign a document online and i
- 17:45I refuse to pay for DocuSign.
- 17:48And so I just keep going through all the free trials
- 17:51and I'll use a thing, get a free trial.
- 17:53Next time I'll use a different Google email
- 17:55and I'll keep going.
- 17:56But the mistake is they give you a free trial
- 17:58for only 30 days.
- 18:00And then you have to remember to go cancel it.
- 18:02So if you do this all the time,
- 18:03and let's assume you do 75 free trials in a day,
- 18:06you're gonna miss one
- 18:07and then you're gonna be paying for a service
- 18:08for the next 12 months.
- 18:09I do this all the time.
- 18:10Okay.
- 18:11Well, with Muse, you just say,
- 18:13I just did this and it reminded me in 10 days so I can go in and cancel it.
- 18:17And in some cases, it'll cancel for you if you give it your Google password in this.
- 18:22So I've given it most of my passwords.
- 18:25So Muse will prevent that from day one, meaning before I hit it, I go, hey, just remind me
- 18:30in 10 days so that we can do this and then it will do it for you.
- 18:33This is what you're getting into.
- 18:34So the reason that's so important is by saving money, the same thing is going to happen.
- 18:37That's its goal.
- 18:38Its goal is to save you money.
- 18:40Well, what's cheaper?
- 18:40to use an AI agent to book something or to do it yourself. And everyone's going to start to realize
- 18:47I'm going to give it more trust. So I've said to a lot of people that, I think his name is William
- 18:54McGuire. I think that's how you pronounce it, McGuire. He talked about trust being a valuation
- 19:05tool for an asset. And I think we're getting into that. So part of what AI is going to do,
- 19:09It'll handle the speed of the rails.
- 19:10So the crypto rails that were set up to handle everything will go.
- 19:13Tokenization will be heavily agentic.
- 19:16We already have agentic trading.
- 19:17So Robin Hood has talked about tokenization and agentic trading combined together.
- 19:22This is all going to happen.
- 19:23So whether it's Muse connecting to agentic payments, whether it's Stripe doing an entire
- 19:27stack over the last 18 months of things prepping for this, I don't just live in a world of my vision.
- 19:33I've been thinking about this for well over a year, and I wrote a paper this week on it,
- 19:38And I said, I said at the panel, this paper came out recently because the price of Bitcoin went higher after bad news.
- 19:46It handled bad news really well.
- 19:48The agentic side came out and tokenization was going to happen.
- 19:51But I knew tokenization would not go fast enough unless we had the agentic side.
- 19:56So now it's all come together.
- 19:57So now it's the right time to release a paper.
- 20:00This was my vision on what would happening because to me, AI is inevitable as the linkage for crypto.
- 20:05Okay.
- 20:06I don't want to go down too much of a tangent here, but you just said that Bitcoin went higher
- 20:09on bad news recently. What was the bad news? Was that the interest rate hike?
- 20:14No. So you can take the interest rate height. You can take the failure of the clarity act,
- 20:20but let's go back to when it was doing well in August in particular, let's say July,
- 20:27because it was really the end of July that you got the change where of course the, the people that
- 20:32that are left, the only enthusiasts, the only people that wear their orange ties
- 20:36are the debasement libertarian crowd.
- 20:38So when Besant decided to intervene in the yen,
- 20:42I wrote a paper and everyone realized, oh my God,
- 20:44then he did the quarterly refunding announcement.
- 20:46Everyone, okay, here we go.
- 20:47The debasement is going to go gold, shoots up all this stuff.
- 20:50happens and everyone gets excited gold's gone back down to right where it was like when we came in
- 20:55here i didn't actually know that yeah it's gold has given up most of what it is and the reason is
- 20:59because rates have gone higher yeah but this was really in july where you had the cold wallet
- 21:03situation you had the clarity act going from as high as 50 probability of getting done to
- 21:10dropping down to the you know the the mid-20s before it went down further and ultimately failed
- 21:15uh you had the ai trade completely unwinding yeah during the month of july you had a lot of things
- 21:21happening where the narratives on bitcoin are it's a it's a high beta tech side okay well ai was
- 21:27unwinding you had the rate situation wasn't responding to rates because we built in fed rate
- 21:32hikes where we still had not had everything kind of changed in that month and it acted well meaning
- 21:38it wasn't going down and then the second that the intervention in the end happened and then all the
- 21:44subsequent things that went on that ultimately didn't stop the rate move higher. That just got
- 21:49the debasement crowd excited, but it even broke away from gold where gold has gone down and Bitcoin
- 21:53still near the highs of the move. So what do you think the reason for that is then? Because
- 21:58you could say that Bitcoin was already down, you know, 50%. It had its bear market and was it just
- 22:03ready to move higher anyway? Like, why do you think it moved when nothing else did?
- 22:07No, because there were other parts. So I created a, here's the problem.
- 22:12um i love the community but for the hardliner bitcoin crowd that call the other cryptocurrency
- 22:22shit coins um i've kind of left myself out of this little debate and i've broken it down into
- 22:28three let's say nicer ways to put everything you got the bitcoiners they get to keep their name
- 22:32see that's great um i call the shit corners programmables okay they're the technologists
- 22:37in the space that are trying to relive what happened with the internet and then you have
- 22:41the incumbents now the incumbents are the people with the 900 trillion for this to work all three
- 22:47need to agree that the crypto ecosystem is going to work there is no way that i can come up with a
- 22:53scenario where the 900 trillion go you know what bitcoin is a good asset for us to move into unless
- 22:59every time you debase what seems to happen is they get more money yeah and they don't move it over
- 23:05so debasement's not the solution guys like i don't know who came up with this i understand that it
- 23:09it did work for the first 15 years, but that's kind of the way all innovations work. And I think
- 23:13that's the issue. Marc Andreessen, I always reference the paper he wrote, Why Bitcoin Matters.
- 23:18And he wrote it in 2014 in January. It doesn't get talked about by a lot of the Bitcoin crowd
- 23:23because it really immortalized the white paper itself and it talked about the innovation.
- 23:30But within there, he kind of described the value, which was tokenization. He didn't call tokenization,
- 23:36but that's what it was, the transference of assets and having it the way it's gone.
- 23:42He talked about stablecoins and he mentioned Bitcoin, but the stablecoins replaced Bitcoin
- 23:48as kind of the original theme, I think, that people thought that Marc Andreessen was covering.
- 23:52So you have this paper he wrote about, not once did he mention debasement as the thing.
- 23:57Now, Marc Andreessen's a lot smarter on the importance of innovation. So I call him the
- 24:02godfather of the programmable part michael saylor's godfather of the bitcoiners and the
- 24:06incumbents their ego is so big that they each consider themselves the gods of the incumbent
- 24:11side so um to get them to convince them to put their money into something that
- 24:14they don't know and they've publicly said like jamie diamond
- 24:19warren buffett charlie munger the zero value um the fact that jamie diamond is now
- 24:27involved in promoting it is only for one reason fear of competition why is he doing it he sees
- 24:34what black rock are doing exactly and they need to be a part of it so what ends up happening with
- 24:38anything like that is mark andreison called this perfectly the only reason that they're involved
- 24:43though is not because of bitcoin jamie diamond did not turn because bitcoin went up to a certain
- 24:48level he turned because of tokenization and stable coins so the incumbents are now seeing the bridge
- 24:54and the investors are like, you know what?
- 24:56I can buy into this.
- 24:57So now you're going to start having fundamentals
- 24:59that people can latch onto.
- 25:01You're starting, and that's what Robin Hood chain,
- 25:03that's the importance of it.
- 25:05Now, none of that matters without the agentic side
- 25:07because the agentic side brings the volume.
- 25:09And when you have a business that has very low fees,
- 25:11the only way it makes any mathematical sense
- 25:14is with extreme volumes.
- 25:17Now, what have we seen that people underestimated
- 25:20that had extreme volumes?
- 25:21so i publicly talked about micron for well over a year and i talked about it all to the incumbents
- 25:31last year and i've given these numbers out because i just want to make sure people realize my view on
- 25:37where bitcoin will be in a year where all of the crypto ecosystem will be don't underestimate ai is
- 25:42the point so micron from all of the people that cover it well and know everything about the company
- 25:48their forecasted earnings per share
- 25:51for the end of this year, 2026,
- 25:53as of the first quarter of,
- 25:55or the second quarter of last year they were expected for this year They now expected to be So they were wrong by an amount that just unfathomable
- 26:09So the question is what happened?
- 26:11Well, they underestimated AI.
- 26:13Now, the problem is the reason I was writing papers,
- 26:15but I'm like, don't you guys see the tokens that are happening?
- 26:18Inference is going to explode.
- 26:19Now we had the tariffs going on at that time,
- 26:21but I'm telling you the smartest people in the world said,
- 26:24what's a token?
- 26:25Now, here we are a year later.
- 26:27That whole token word is really important again.
- 26:30They're not paying attention.
- 26:32So I'm just telling you that people are underestimating the volume and speed and how you make money.
- 26:38Those tokens took, and I joke about this because when I was in DC last week, I had to give a speech.
- 26:44And what I said was, do you know the Clarity Act?
- 26:47By the time the Clarity Act started as an initial attempt to when it failed,
- 26:51anthropic went from being a 3 billion revenue company to where they are now about 80 billion
- 26:57revenue company their valuation went from about 50 billion to two or three trillion
- 27:01that's what friction looks like to bring up clarity for it to fail and then to have the cftc
- 27:07and the sec and everyone come out with their rule changes on the whole thing and saying you guys can
- 27:11do this for the next three years four years five years whatever the case um all of that's happened
- 27:15so never underestimate the power of the speed and the volume of ai i think people have lost
- 27:20a lot of potential money on it. I think crypto is going to fit the same way.
- 27:24Okay. So I definitely want to come back to the AI market as it stands right now,
- 27:27but just quickly on the debasement thing, because I've not heard someone say that Bitcoin is not a,
- 27:30not a debasement hedge. Um, is it that it is that, but that's not the most important story
- 27:38because if it, if it's not that it kind of means that the scarcity of Bitcoin is not important.
- 27:43So the scarcity of Bitcoin is not important to the debasement theme as my reality. If it was,
- 27:49it would be up far more like i don't even understand the concept of what it means i the
- 27:55scarcity thing i believe in but the reason i believe in the scarcity is because bitcoin has
- 28:00a moat on time so ai makes everything everything either hackable or replaceable so a house the
- 28:12value of a house you have to have margin in it okay how do you price in humanoids when they can
- 28:17work 24 7 and we're solving problems for nano and all of this stuff to where if the input costs go
- 28:24down to zero then what's the value of a house sitting next to it if it costs zero to build the
- 28:28one next to it would rather use the land then yeah and that's it and in the end okay how much is the
- 28:34land really worth this is a mistake that i think people make is well how much does the land work
- 28:39people didn't buy i mean no offense to the people who own land and go through this and i agree having
- 28:46a beautiful view is worth a good amount of money to show off but if you're in a world of abundance
- 28:51i don't know what showing off your big house means when virtual reality allows you to travel
- 28:55anywhere so when you start getting into sci-fi things and again we're past the point of getting
- 28:59into them we have a company that raised a lot of money to go to mars so like land is about to get
- 29:05much more expansive at some point and maybe people would rather be on the moon maybe that'll be the
- 29:09most expensive property i just know that when you think about scarcity you have to bring in the fact
- 29:14that ai all technology does um there's a reason why napster you know was a company and then they
- 29:22were banned because they were making music free and it was this whole thing when i mentioned william
- 29:28uh muguayar one of the reasons i became i started listening to him on his pitch on ethereum was
- 29:35because he was saying very smart things but he was connected to napster and so he understood the peer
- 29:39to peer side so napster is a very important thing in like the bitcoin journey for me because i already
- 29:44saw it before the whole internet came blew up the white paper came you had this thing where you could
- 29:50steal things and it's a big part of the scarcity issue i just think when people do the scarcity
- 29:55there's the first phase which is the ideologues want to hide their money away from the government
- 30:01i get it and they moved it in and it was a great decision and people made a lot of money off it
- 30:06i just think going forward people are missing the fact that bitcoin didn't outperform
- 30:14the mag seven it did overall but not to a point that people care the incumbents the incumbents
- 30:19made tons of money being along the mag seven because they went up at a very fast pace and
- 30:24i think right now bitcoin relatives of mag seven is like the same level as 2016 or 17.
- 30:29so even in like a big thing it didn't work during the basement everything worked during the basement
- 30:35so the stuff that isn't scarce worked too so i think people may have been using this narrative
- 30:41in a way that helped it but i think the next phase to turn it into a hundred trillion dollar
- 30:46200 trillion whatever you want the size to be you actually need people to doubt the investments they
- 30:52have and that's not about the basement because if you keep debasing those things never lose value
- 30:58that's the whole point that actually makes sense so so the demonetization of things like real estate
- 31:04how that one i understand and the thing that i don necessarily understand is what that means for things like the stock market because i mean right now the stock market is AI like there almost nothing else interesting happening there What does it mean for those investments So I written about this a
- 31:22lot. There's two things about what are going to happen, which are going to destroy the
- 31:26growth of public equities. And what I want to make sure people understand, this is not
- 31:31a bearish argument. So if you put lots of money into the system and you use this debasement
- 31:38theme, okay, the total sum of the assets has just gone higher with debasement and Bitcoin's been a
- 31:43part of it. So how is it the best debasement asset? It doesn't make any sense to me. Okay.
- 31:49What I think people should be paying more attention to is at some point you start to
- 31:55realize, well, wait a second, the money's not going into all people. It's going into the biggest
- 32:00people, the ones that own the assets. So it's a funneling into those things. What has to happen
- 32:06is there needs to be a democratization of ownership.
- 32:09The money needs to go to the 8 billion people that don't have anything.
- 32:14So you're talking about the canceling effect here?
- 32:16Yes.
- 32:17But the way that it'll work is that AI allows me to grow a business
- 32:22without any investors and without any people.
- 32:25The biggest risk for public companies is that, number one, they're big.
- 32:29So they could stay big and relevant and they can look like Ford.
- 32:33And I pick on Ford, but it could be GM.
- 32:36it could be a lot of different companies but the reality is how long has ford been around for i mean
- 32:40they've been around for a hundred years yeah they stopped growing a long time ago assets can survive
- 32:46and have a function but if they're not growing they won't take in any new money so it's not that
- 32:51the stock market will collapse it's that on the one side if tokenization happens the where capital
- 33:00can go if they don't print like trillions more dollars and all of a sudden you have a lot of
- 33:06tokens being listed i don't know how many viewers your podcast has but if i told you that there were
- 33:13a billion more podcasts tomorrow you're probably going to be affected your growth will be affected
- 33:18now your content could be the best out there it'll keep growing at some pace but there's no way having
- 33:22access to a trillion more podcast isn't going to saturate it of course that's what's coming with
- 33:28tokenization so private credit will be liquid so people will be able to have their money and things
- 33:34you'll be able to have ip like all of these things are going to happen because once you can tokenize
- 33:40anything which is really what happened with crypto you can tokenize any idea and community-based
- 33:46investing to me is going to happen so i think public equities are just going to lose their growth
- 33:50and that'll happen partly through tokenization and partly through the ability of entrepreneurs
- 33:54to compete with big businesses.
- 33:56Big businesses of which I worked for one,
- 33:59but then even moved to another one that had 100 people.
- 34:01So when I go from Morgan Stanley
- 34:03and it started with 10,000 and ends up at, say,
- 34:0650,000 people by the time I left,
- 34:09it's a bureaucracy.
- 34:11It's like a government, but yet they've been winning.
- 34:14How can a big bureaucracy win?
- 34:16Well, they have some moat.
- 34:18They're getting the talent.
- 34:19They're getting this.
- 34:20They're getting the best educated people.
- 34:21I came in at the bottom level from a school
- 34:23that they didn't normally hire from.
- 34:26That's what democratization of education is going to do.
- 34:28It's going to open up entrepreneurs in Africa
- 34:30and entrepreneurs in Brazil and Australia,
- 34:32people that maybe didn't go to the best schools,
- 34:34but like, you know what?
- 34:35I'm going to sit at home
- 34:36and I'm going to create a podcast to compete with Danny.
- 34:37I'm going to create, I'm going to compete with Jordy.
- 34:39I'm going to compete.
- 34:40I'm going to make something and sell it over the internet.
- 34:43All of a sudden this stuff,
- 34:44and as long as you create something that people want
- 34:46and now they have access to it
- 34:48and your agent will find it
- 34:49because they'll be able to weed through everything
- 34:51and know what you like,
- 34:52all of a sudden you're going to see a democracy or a distribution of opportunity for people that
- 34:57didn't exist do you think they'll be in that incumbent class that you described do you think
- 35:02everyone is going to push back against this because it's so disruptive and scary as they
- 35:06are the ones with the moat do you think they're going to push back heavily against this i mean
- 35:10they have i think that's what the crypto you know winter was about um i think a lot of the vc places
- 35:19that, I mean, they funded 21 and 22.
- 35:25It wasn't debt.
- 35:26It was literally this wave of capital.
- 35:29I mean, I was joking with someone today
- 35:30who was like, hey, so-and-so.
- 35:32I'm like, and they worked at a Wall Street bank.
- 35:35And they're like, yeah, it's been a tough few years.
- 35:39I'm like, oh, so did you join in 21, 22?
- 35:44Yeah, okay.
- 35:45And in 30s, 40s.
- 35:48but really when they joined 30s.
- 35:51The thing that that says to me is that
- 35:53crypto got a wave of VC money in.
- 35:57Those VCs gave it to crypto companies on the vision.
- 36:00Most of those VCs have now become Republicans
- 36:03because of the experience of what happened,
- 36:05what they learned from crypto and with SaaS
- 36:07and the fact that we were going to regulate tech.
- 36:09And they became more libertarians.
- 36:11And they were like, hey, we don't believe in this.
- 36:13And we were help giving money.
- 36:15I think politics became part of kind of the,
- 36:18let say the thing that has really made the country polarizing has been what you described which is people fighting back on people not able to participate And so socialism becomes the voting movement as well
- 36:34So you get the far right and the far left
- 36:36because there's people that either don't like the,
- 36:38hey, you're intervening too much in our life
- 36:41and generally they have more money or on the other side,
- 36:43hey, you're not allowing us to participate.
- 36:45And those fringes are getting more important
- 36:47and more important.
- 36:48And I think they all lead back to a place of what's positive
- 36:51for AI and positive for crypto.
- 36:52And I don't think the big has a chance to fight it.
- 36:55I just don't.
- 36:56I mean, I think what you said there is clearly right.
- 36:58That everything that happened, say post-COVID
- 37:01with the money printing has definitely created
- 37:03more of a K-shaped economy.
- 37:04And I also understand, you know,
- 37:06the people who are on the bottom end of that,
- 37:07who do tend to lean more socialist,
- 37:09more even like communist at the extreme.
- 37:12I understand the frustration.
- 37:13Like, I think that they're diagnosing the problem
- 37:16and misdiagnosing the solution.
- 37:18But like, I understand the frustration.
- 37:20um i'm really interested though because one of the things i've been talking about a lot recently
- 37:25is like the ai bubble if it exists um i think to a degree it probably does but do you think
- 37:31this the ai trade which you described earlier is like if you've not been in that last year or two
- 37:36you've you've absolutely lost do you think it is coming to a close you wouldn't reuse a bitcoin
- 37:41address so why does your phone broadcast the same identifier for life every sim has a static id and
- 37:47carriers ad networks and bad actors all use it to track you.
- 37:50The big carriers have been caught selling that data over and over again.
- 37:54Cape is America's privacy first mobile carrier.
- 37:57Their identifier rotation feature changes your ID every 24 hours.
- 38:00So you look like a different subscriber every single day.
- 38:03And sim swaps are off the table.
- 38:05Your number can't move without a 24 word phrase that only you hold.
- 38:09There's also no name at sign up, no social security number,
- 38:12and there's no profile to build on you.
- 38:14If you're a Bitcoiner in America, I honestly don't know why you'd use any other network.
- 38:18You can head over to cape.co forward slash WBD and use the code WBD for 33% off your first six months.
- 38:25That's C-A-P-E dot co forward slash WBD.
- 38:29Recent hardware wallet vulnerabilities have definitely made me rethink my entire security setup,
- 38:33as I'm sure it has for a lot of Bitcoiners.
- 38:35And the uncomfortable truth is that no single security product can promise there'll never be a problem,
- 38:40which is exactly why the design matters.
- 38:42BitKey is a self-custody hardware wallet that uses three keys created in three separate environments
- 38:47There's one on your phone, one on the BitKey hardware itself and one on a secure BitKey server
- 38:52Two of those three keys are required to sign any transaction
- 38:55So a problem isolated to just one key is never enough to move your Bitcoin
- 38:59So if you are rethinking your setup right now, as I'm sure a lot of people are
- 39:02You should really think about the BitKey
- 39:04The hardware looks great, the app and the user experience is second to none
- 39:07Backing up and restoring your wallet is seamless and they even have inheritance built in
- 39:11So I really don't think you'd be disappointed.
- 39:14So download BitKey today.
- 39:16Use the code WBD for 10% off the second generation BitKey,
- 39:19which is this device right here with the screen.
- 39:22Download the app, download BitKey,
- 39:23use code WBD and get 10% off.
- 39:30So I wrote a paper in June,
- 39:35basically titled The Firework Show is Over.
- 39:38so uh number one i i want to make sure i get this there there is the word bubble is used so much
- 39:47yeah you couldn't name one thing one thing bars are a bubble hairdressers are a bubble like at
- 39:56some point you walk down the street and you're like why are there so many of these so i just
- 40:01think people use this in the context of it's going to take the economy down so i just want to make
- 40:05sure people get this straight. The only time there's a bubble that matters from an investment
- 40:11standpoint is when supply is too big to be saturated by the demand. Here's a bubble,
- 40:21the crypto guardrails in 21, 22. So much money went into the space and there were kids coming
- 40:29from Wall Street. I'm quitting my job, Jordy. What do you think? I'm going to go over. I'm like,
- 40:33All right, great. Have a good time.
- 40:35And I'm not going to name the companies they were going to,
- 40:37but I mean, at Goldman Sachs,
- 40:38it was like every day I got a call from some young person going,
- 40:40I'm going to go over there. What do you think?
- 40:41I'm guessing FTX.
- 40:44I mean, FTX, Galaxy, it doesn't really matter.
- 40:46I mean, whoever had the most connections back to the bank,
- 40:50they were going there.
- 40:51But FTX was brought up from,
- 40:53that was the one place that Wall Street did invest in.
- 40:55Regardless, that was a bubble.
- 40:58now it was a bubble in the fact that too much money came in before the demand was there yeah
- 41:05do i think nfts are a great idea yeah i actually do not the art side but i think memories and
- 41:11experiences that you can digitally keep just like memorabilia with inside the physical world
- 41:17seems far more important to me in a digital world and to younger people than the actual physical
- 41:22side i don't want i don't want to get off on a tangent on it but i'm a big believer in nfts and
- 41:26in a certain context, but it was too early.
- 41:29There was there was it didn't make any sense
- 41:31and it was too much money going into something new speculating on it.
- 41:34This was the dot com bubble for crypto.
- 41:37The AI side is not a bubble.
- 41:39The AI side is a bubble if you say, are all the companies going to make it? No. And the firework
- 41:44show was it was easy to make money in the AI infrastructure trade and in the duopoly that
- 41:50was created with OpenAI and Anthropic. It's over. Micron, which is trading now at whatever,
- 41:574 PE, depending on what earnings you use. Do I think it's going to go up again? Yeah. But do I
- 42:03think the multiple is low? I've called this a bull market with inside a bear market. There are
- 42:09two types of bear markets. One is where the price goes down, the other one where the PEs go down.
- 42:14That's what's happening to equities. They're no longer being valued the same way. Crypto on the
- 42:19other end, I've used Peter Lynch, one of the most famous, I would say, contrarian investors who wrote
- 42:26a book called One Up on Wall Street, who literally wrote, the key thing to finding great ideas is to
- 42:32find things that are undercovered by the sell side and that are still small and haven't been
- 42:38invested in yet. That is crypto. That is the exact definition. Wall Street doesn't know anything
- 42:44about it. I write research and I've got 46 names in my index. You couldn't find a person at Morgan
- 42:50Stanley. Even with the digital asset team they're hiring, that knows as much as I do about some of
- 42:54these names because I'm researching them. I'm doing writings on them. I'm doing it. So I do
- 42:59think AI has peaked in the growth of it, in the surprise of it, in the ability to monetize it
- 43:05because the competition is too extreme.
- 43:07I think crypto is on the other end.
- 43:09It's coming out of the dot-com bubble.
- 43:10And what changed those companies, the Mag7,
- 43:13and had them build to the level they are,
- 43:16is there was one event that occurred,
- 43:18which was the launch of the smartphone.
- 43:20And so to me, AI agents are the smartphone moment,
- 43:23the app store moment.
- 43:25They will allow the enthusiasm
- 43:27for the $900 trillion of incumbents to go,
- 43:30you know, there's something here.
- 43:31I really like this angle that crypto
- 43:34kind of went through its internet mode.
- 43:36We didn't know how to invest in the internet.
- 43:39Let's go find these L2s and go figure out
- 43:42which ones can make money.
- 43:42And I think Robinhood chain right now
- 43:44is kind of helping them zero in.
- 43:46And I can just tell you as someone who stands on the bridge
- 43:49in the middle of it where they're like,
- 43:51hey, Jordy, explain to me how tokenization fits in my world.
- 43:56And I'm getting that question now from,
- 43:58I would say the biggest players at the most highest level.
- 44:03So not their analysts, but the actual decision makers.
- 44:06And the reason that's important is they know me.
- 44:11Number two, that means before they even allow their analysts to bring to them, like you
- 44:16should look at Zcash or you should look at this, they're coming to me going, should I
- 44:20be looking at this?
- 44:20Give me the macro vision on this.
- 44:22Give me the bigger picture so I can go through it.
- 44:24And I'm getting those questions now, which says we're in the early stages of a Peter
- 44:29Lynch moment of people finding it.
- 44:31So if the massive growth in AI is over for now, you're not expecting this to pull back massively, but the major growth is gone for now.
- 44:40But you think that's still to come in Bitcoin sort of crypto world.
- 44:44If you were talking to, say, the CEO of Apple or Google, or maybe Google is a better example as it's like so dialed in on the AI stuff.
- 44:53They're sat on a lot of cash.
- 44:55Should they be looking to buy Bitcoin?
- 44:57going no they will keep spending their money into oblivion um because they have a lot of money
- 45:05sitting you know in orders that this is the most trapped obvious thing I've ever seen in my lifetime
- 45:11um Microsoft Amazon Google I mean the major important hyperscalers but even Oracle yeah
- 45:21they have massive orders for compute and again that's why I say there's no bubble
- 45:26demand for compute is greater than supply end of story and if people don't know that they just are
- 45:30not they're living in their own bubble yeah 100 it's definitely true i mean the prices don't go
- 45:35down every bare argument that's ever been made has been disproven just by the prices that exist i was
- 45:40just talking on the phone with someone who literally said the biggest problem we're having
- 45:44right now is we can't get enough compute online in the next two years yeah so it's like the window
- 45:49is out way past 28 at this point in terms of the demand side so i i think as we kind of you know
- 45:56move through this, Google has, I don't know, I think they're half a trillion dollars of back
- 46:02orders. They just don't have the compute. So they can't not spend the money. The question really
- 46:07comes, will they have a product outside of this boring product of supplying compute to open AI
- 46:13and Anthropic? I mean, they basically own a restaurant unless they can figure a way to
- 46:19monetize this. And what happened with Meta, Meta came out with Muse. It's a big hit.
- 46:26I've not used it yet. You're not allowed to use it in Australia. It's like, it's US only for now.
- 46:30Okay. I mean, I've used it. I've heard it's very good. Yeah. I've talked to you about it canceled
- 46:35or gave me the, I won't name the company, but the one I did a free trial to and pointed out,
- 46:41but it's done amazing things for me, including, and so people know, um, it does fraud alert for
- 46:46me Everyone worried about their bank account and stuff being connected to it And I like well I got protection of my bank account on multiple levels If you guys don have it like go in there and say hey if anyone takes money out for more than off a debit card let me know Cause I don use my debit card that much
- 47:01And that's really where a lot of the bots go in. And in particular, in your checking account,
- 47:06cause your savings account has more like, I've already looked all this stuff up. So I'm like,
- 47:09okay, here's my other check. Hey, um, I'm a big believer that if you don't want to die from
- 47:14cancer you should know you have cancer day one and it's a very simple thing well the same thing
- 47:20goes with fraud they're gonna test it and i want to know and so i'll give my protection at the bank
- 47:26and then i'll have protection with muse and i already do that so muse is a a warning shot to
- 47:33apple siri hasn't they don't have it yet siri is dreadful it's unbelievable how about it is it
- 47:41alexa is too so they haven't figured it out google i mean i'm using muse on my gmail accounts
- 47:47so how come they haven't come out with microsoft and copilot they're saying they have their agents
- 47:51now open ai is going to have theirs and you know anthropic's going to have theirs so the problem
- 47:55is for all of these companies there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen already and the competition's
- 48:01going to be extreme the thing i don't think people realize with the mag 7 is they really are like
- 48:07seven different companies and almost there's a lot of rumors that they agreed a long time ago we're
- 48:12not going to go in your lane you don't go in our lane so when you break down what amazon is it's
- 48:16very different than what apple is it's very different than what google is and you go through
- 48:19like oh these mag seven they do seven different things now they're all competing for the exact
- 48:24same pie that's interesting so by definition they're going to be a feeding frenzy it's going
- 48:29to drive costs down so people don't think about these things that's why i don't worry like oh
- 48:33meta stock's going up i'm like yeah great and what happens when everyone else comes out with
- 48:37their version haven't you learned what happened with your fears on open source laws they'll all
- 48:42be feeding for zero costs because muse is free and so what happens then as they compete do you
- 48:48think the mag 7 becomes the mag 6 and then the mag 5 until we have the mag 1 it depends on how
- 48:52you you measure it do i think um here's the best way to say it um cable companies
- 49:01they're there their stocks suck yeah they become regulated commodities they don't grow anymore
- 49:10so what happens to a stock like at&t it's not like you've woken up at&t is never on the front
- 49:17page like there if you go into x and say what's the latest news on at&t there's no news and if
- 49:22there is it's about something bad or you know how to date space yeah their debt's gonna blow them up
- 49:28but nothing good so i think over time these companies just become like that i don't think
- 49:34they grow but this might be too extreme but is this almost like the end of capitalism then
- 49:38so it i i think i have written or said that somewhere that it's very difficult for the
- 49:46way capitalism exists the way people know it today but here's the thing i don't know what
- 49:52you call it if we go from the mag seven to the mag one billion and all that means is a
- 49:58redistribution through a channel of competition and capitalism at the end of the day is cap is
- 50:03competition the problem is i don't think it's been fair competition when it gets back to
- 50:08it costs me nothing to borrow money and i get to hire the best talent because i can pay the most
- 50:15money so as you get a moat around your business it's very hard for there to be competitors so
- 50:19someone might have a better idea. I mean, go back to the mag seven. What did they do when there was
- 50:25a competitor? They bought Instagram. What I could name a hundred little companies that were growing
- 50:30rapidly that they just gobbled up. So I think that's what capitalism really was, was you get
- 50:35big enough. And before someone can compete, you buy them, you buy them. And it's kind of rigged
- 50:40because the VC needs to be monetized and go through it. I mean, I just heard on the all in
- 50:44podcast that they were describing um anthropic and like the the founders own very little of the
- 50:52company which is an amazing thing that here's a company that's not that old and it's trillions
- 50:57of dollars and i think dario owns two percent of it yeah that's crazy so again you think about a
- 51:03founder who creates a business that gets to this level that's not even that old and he owns two
- 51:08percent of it so i think we're kind of entering this weird world why does he own two percent
- 51:13And I think when you go through the difference of that with like Zuck with Facebook and you
- 51:19realize, well, it's really hard with hardware companies that have to spend tons of money
- 51:24because they have to raise the money.
- 51:26They have to give up ownership to be able to raise the money.
- 51:28In the world that I'm seeing, the founders are going to own 80, 90, 100% of their business
- 51:33because they don't need employees and they don't need to borrow money.
- 51:35And those are the two things.
- 51:36If you need capital and you need employees, you have to give up a lot of your money.
- 51:40But with AI, you don't need either.
- 51:41And so I might be crazy, I might be the only person
- 51:47that believes this, but I really do think
- 51:48that this is more about we invest in growth
- 51:51and if these companies can't grow their earnings fast enough,
- 51:55their multiples compress.
- 51:56One of the things about me that people that know
- 51:58in my weekly it all data driven So I try to look at what the market is saying and it saying to me triple C spreads are widening out in the US Oh that means a recession is coming Well no because high
- 52:12yield is not budging and investment grade is not budging. The mag seven CDS is widening out and all
- 52:18these scary things. Okay. But their equities at all time highs, their equity is lower in the cap
- 52:23structure than their debt guys. Like, come on, let's be, the market's telling you something.
- 52:28It's not telling you there's a problem with their borrowing.
- 52:31It's saying that this is a very concentrated amount of borrowing.
- 52:34And if you believe the AI trade is going to be a bubble, what better thing than to buy CDS on this?
- 52:39Plus, for people that believe that this is just a repeat of the big short, everyone made a ton of money doing this type of trade on the big shorts.
- 52:46Let's go buy CDS on all these companies.
- 52:48I just think the market has been telling you by the multiple compression and specifically NVIDIA.
- 52:54nvidia's earnings have blown away all estimates and they literally just did something we've never
- 53:02seen before in terms of rating guidance for next year on their revenues way above the street i mean
- 53:07the street was expecting 40 top line revenue growth and they said it was going to be 70 for
- 53:12a company to say that even if they it's never happened and the reason i say it's never happened
- 53:18you would never say a year out you have that much certainty and visibility to say it's going to be
- 53:22way above where the street is and the stock was unchanged four days later now their pe has
- 53:29collapsed micron's pe is low why is that happening and i believe it's because out five years we have
- 53:38no certainty whatsoever yeah and at the end of the day the value of a fiat asset to get back to your
- 53:43your scarcity side, it's about the future discounted cash flows.
- 53:50And that in it, a PE to me gets back to Bitcoin.
- 53:54It's like, how do you convert this into a PE?
- 53:58Well, maybe the PE is the most vulnerable thing because it means you have to extrapolate
- 54:04this moat such a far time out that if you cut off five years from now and you go, you
- 54:09know what?
- 54:09I'm going to place a very low probability this company will still be winning in five years.
- 54:14Well, then the PE goes down to single digits.
- 54:16And the reason I know that is because that's where the stock market was in 1980
- 54:20before the personal computer started to get the rise in PEs in the US.
- 54:25Now it was coming out of the inflation era back then,
- 54:27but there was also an uncertainty over rates were going to be.
- 54:30We kind of have the same thing now with rates.
- 54:32We don't know where rates are going to be.
- 54:33And as I'm going to show this week,
- 54:35for everyone worried about the bond market and what it means,
- 54:37It's like, guys, the rates don't matter anymore.
- 54:41Like, I don't know how to get this across to people.
- 54:43You guys are getting scared about something that I know doesn't matter.
- 54:47And it's another one of these market tells.
- 54:48Same thing with oil.
- 54:50It doesn't matter.
- 54:51You say so many things that have just a thousand questions on.
- 54:53But just before we get on to rates, because I do want to ask you about that.
- 54:57With the AI trade, the PE is dropping.
- 54:59Is that also partly a self-fulfilling prophecy where if enough people think it's a bubble,
- 55:03they start treating it like a bubble and therefore the stocks don't grow or shrink?
- 55:07comparatively.
- 55:08I've never seen a more hated bull market around the greatest innovation technology
- 55:15that the world has ever seen.
- 55:16When Cisco was trading at 100 PE and I moved back from Brazil, I was watching very educated
- 55:23Ivy League people try to explain to me how it was justified.
- 55:26And I remember coming back being like, so I leave Brazil, which is in a depression,
- 55:32and you guys bring me back here because I was successful down there.
- 55:34So now the capitalist side is we need Jordy to come back here and run the S&P options book.
- 55:40And then I get to see people who I still talk to today.
- 55:43I'm like, remember when you were drunk on pets.com and all this stuff that you own?
- 55:46Yeah, that was a crazy time.
- 55:49I was like, right now in the stock market, we have none of that.
- 55:54Like none of that.
- 55:55Micron's trading at a four P.
- 55:56I mean, if you thought, if you do the numbers on Micron and if someone said to me, so what's
- 56:02the argument for memory?
- 56:03I'm like, well, let's see.
- 56:04we're not even in the first inning of compute demand.
- 56:07We just started the agentic revolution in January.
- 56:12Opus 4.6 and OpenClaw were kind of the key points
- 56:17for the agentic world.
- 56:19And coding agents started enterprise adoption.
- 56:22But enterprise adoption is in the first inning.
- 56:24Consumer agents, Muse just started.
- 56:27So it's like those two alone are massive,
- 56:30but let's take it further.
- 56:31full self-driving doesn't happen yet it's gonna happen and you need a hell of a lot more compute
- 56:37for doing visual and bringing that in too and then after that you have humanoids you still have
- 56:42going to space like this is a never-ending demand for compute so theoretically micron should be
- 56:49trading extrapolating the next 10 years into their multiple it should be trading at 40 times this
- 56:54year's earnings but it's not and the reason is because the market is smarter than any individual
- 56:59And we saw that with the SaaSpocalypse
- 57:02in the beginning part of the year.
- 57:03So again, you look to the market,
- 57:05and I believe that when you take 8 billion people,
- 57:08including if only 2 of people above the age of 55 are using AI the 2 that are using it they engineers they but at 55 they probably have a lot of money Mark Andreessen has a lot of money
- 57:23Like if I go through the list of people
- 57:24that have a lot of money that are using it
- 57:26and understand it,
- 57:28they're saying the same thing I am
- 57:29because where am I getting my stuff from?
- 57:31Those people.
- 57:32Like I'm not the first person to say
- 57:34the valuation of these companies is coming down
- 57:36because terminal value has been eliminated.
- 57:38But if you only listen to the bubbles here,
- 57:41it's a lazy way for people to go oh thank god there's a bubble so that way i can just wait it
- 57:46out that's what a bubble means to me it's a lazy way of saying i don't have to use ai i don't have
- 57:51to buy any ai companies it doesn't really matter because i can just sit this one out it's i mean
- 57:56it's both the most hated um sort of bull market but also just the most hated technological
- 58:01revolution like the it's become so politically polarized and pub key where we're recording above
- 58:07right now hosted a event in dc last week which was like they had a load of um ai infrastructure
- 58:13content so they were talking to data centers all that kind of thing and in the wake of that
- 58:18they've had an absolute ton of one star reviews on their on their bar because they had those
- 58:25conversations within the bar like it's insane how much people hate the data centers yeah and
- 58:30like don't get me wrong i don't necessarily want to live right next to a data center but
- 58:33like the most of the people that hate it do not live next to a data center correct it's it's very
- 58:40interesting so i want to go back to rates you said rates don't matter why do rates not matter anymore
- 58:45because the economy has changed dramatically since the iphone came into existence so um
- 58:50and i'll just use i could use australia as well but it's not going to be the same as as the u.s
- 58:57let's just use the u.s um first of all corporate balance sheets are pristine on the aggregate
- 59:03it's lunacy to me that people worry about the debt of like Microsoft and Google and all this
- 59:09stuff like these companies are worth so much money that go back to your debt to equity class like it
- 59:15there's no risk of default or anything with them borrowing a total of two trillion dollars between
- 59:20them when they're worth 20 30 trillion dollars in the aggregate so there's that the cash and
- 59:25the balance sheet is still enormous and marketable securities so on a risk analysis the corporate
- 59:31balance sheets today relative to the great financial crisis completely different i use
- 59:36great financial crisis as the brammer because that's when the iphone came out yeah so when the
- 59:39iphone came out the companies that grew the mag 7 they took no debt so when you see these scary
- 59:43charts with these histograms and it's like look at the debt it's up here and it's coming from here
- 59:47i'm like the real story is the prior 10 years they took no debt how do you grow from a trillion
- 59:54to 15 trillion amongst those companies and take no debt yeah like it never happened before in
- 1:00:00mankind and you guys leave it. So when you see this stuff going up, okay, that's going to kill
- 1:00:03their growth going forward. I'm with you guys. Like it's not going to blow the company up. So
- 1:00:07rates don't matter from a corporate side, from a household side, household net worth in the United
- 1:00:11States of America is $195 trillion. Okay. Let me say that again, 195 trillion. When you guys hear
- 1:00:17the big scary government debt number, it's 40 trillion, 120% of GDP. You know, when Japan's
- 1:00:25debt was 120 percent of gdp that was in 2000 that was a long time ago it was a quarter of a century
- 1:00:30quarter of a century ago they haven't blown up they're still playing the party game of we don't
- 1:00:35need to pay our debt off because we just buy it back and go through it so is the u.s have that
- 1:00:39luxury yet no but they'll get there they'll just keep buying back the debt move everything into
- 1:00:43short-term yields and it'll just become a sieve just like everything that went on during the great
- 1:00:47financial crisis but betting against the government is bad mistake um rates for housing the majority
- 1:00:5440% of houses in the U.S. completely paid off.
- 1:00:57The average mortgage rate on a house is sub 4%.
- 1:01:01So as rates go higher, these are fixed rate mortgages.
- 1:01:05And I'm pretty sure Australia does not have a big fixed rate.
- 1:01:08We don't have a luxury of that.
- 1:01:08Yeah.
- 1:01:08But in the U.S., they're locked in at fixed rate mortgages.
- 1:01:12So they're not getting worse.
- 1:01:14The wealthy people who don't have mortgages and have lots of cash,
- 1:01:18if rates are going higher, the government is giving more money into the system.
- 1:01:21this is not the case from before and i can keep going on and on but when you're left with is if
- 1:01:28the household balance sheets are good the private sector as a whole are because corporations balance
- 1:01:33sheets are good the only people who get hurt from rates going higher are arguably the places that
- 1:01:39should go out of business house sales are at zero in the u.s i mean not literally zero but they're at
- 1:01:44the lowest level when you do existing home sales they're at the same level they were during the
- 1:01:47great financial crisis, the worst of it. So there is no element of this that has the same impact
- 1:01:53that it used to have in the past. And that's why as rates go higher, is there an element that knocks
- 1:01:58out small businesses? Yeah. But to be honest, it gets back to the point of the stubbornness that a
- 1:02:05lot of businesses have. Recessions are supposed to be cleansing events to get rid of the weak and
- 1:02:10allow the strong to get in. And sometimes for individuals that it was their dream to have a
- 1:02:15a little hardware store or a little diner,
- 1:02:17they might be better off with it going out of business
- 1:02:20because they're sitting there and watching their,
- 1:02:22I'm making $10,000 and now I'm only making eight.
- 1:02:25I'm going to have to leave and move anyway
- 1:02:26because the rent's going up.
- 1:02:28I just think the rate situation,
- 1:02:29It's not going to take the economy down.
- 1:02:31It's not as sensitive as it was before 2008.
- 1:02:34And there's a variety of other things that go through.
- 1:02:37But if it does get to the point, like, obviously, the person it matters to is the government as they're rolling their debt over at higher and higher rates.
- 1:02:43And if it gets to the point where they're having to buy back that debt themselves, like that then affects everyone through debasement.
- 1:02:50Well, when you say debasement, not if all they're doing is moving the maturities closer and closer in.
- 1:02:57and it doesn't really increase any more dramatically than it was.
- 1:03:00But if they have to start buying back the bonds like Japan.
- 1:03:03Again, as you go through this and you figure out
- 1:03:06the total sum of the assets is $900 trillion.
- 1:03:10So they're not having any trouble on this now
- 1:03:13because the rates haven't gone up that much.
- 1:03:15So far, we've done 100 basis point move in a year.
- 1:03:20We have this thing in the US that we pay attention to
- 1:03:22for good reason.
- 1:03:25Actually, two things.
- 1:03:26So there's the LEI, which is the leading economic indicator, which was negative for three years from 2022 to just turn.
- 1:03:35It's not positive yet.
- 1:03:36I think it's about to go positive above zero.
- 1:03:38We've never not had a recession without that going below zero.
- 1:03:43And yet we've been below.
- 1:03:44We had an inverted yield curve.
- 1:03:45We didn't get a recession magically enough.
- 1:03:48We took rates from zero to 5% didn't get a recession.
- 1:03:52We have the financial conditions index.
- 1:03:56rates have gone up 100 basis points financial conditions have gotten easier so we're kind of
- 1:04:03in an environment again where if people want to believe that there'll be more printing then we'll
- 1:04:08see it through money supply but the reality is we've got a fiscal deficit of six percent
- 1:04:12which means there's a transfer from the government who's borrowing money and basically again giving
- 1:04:18it back out so we're already in the debasement thing we've been in it before it's just a call of
- 1:04:23liquefaction transfer payments continue to grow we keep giving money out i don't think that's going
- 1:04:28to last forever my own personal view because i think entitlements are going to change in the
- 1:04:34coming years because of ai but you know that's a view that's a little out there for people you say
- 1:04:40too many interesting things i need to now ask you about entitlements because when you say that's
- 1:04:44going to change are they going to be forced to change or why would ai change them um so i do
- 1:04:49believe that when it comes to people's health, longevity is going to go through its exponential
- 1:04:55as well. Absolutely. So if you believe in that, then you have to go through the entitlements and
- 1:04:59separate the social security side and then the other side, Medicare, Medicaid, and what's going
- 1:05:06on. And the majority of health expenditures come in the final five days of your life.
- 1:05:12if nobody dies from disease and they die from old age which is a far better way to die and so let's
- 1:05:21assume you know the current people above their 70 because of how old they are they don't get another
- 1:05:2770 years they get an extra 10 years well that's worth a lot of money but more importantly if they
- 1:05:34die from just old age and that's it well that's a pretty great way to go but the cost side and the
- 1:05:41burden on everyone else will go down dramatically. And I do believe that is going to happen. When
- 1:05:46humanoids come and let's say a decade from now, they're able to live in the home and go through
- 1:05:50this. When you go through where the entitlements start to become a major issue, you're talking in
- 1:05:542032 and going beyond. So social security is a harder one for people to deal with, but the wealth
- 1:06:01of the country is enormous. And I do believe that in the next five years, people are underestimating
- 1:06:06the tax side that's going to go up dramatically. And this is not something to scare people with.
- 1:06:11if abundance actually happens,
- 1:06:15people have to start thinking about what will go on.
- 1:06:17A company like Anthropic has, I think,
- 1:06:20like 5,000 employees and they're worth
- 1:06:25two, three trillion dollars.
- 1:06:26Okay, I wanna say that again.
- 1:06:275,000 employees, the company's not even,
- 1:06:31I don't even know when they were incorporated,
- 1:06:32but it can't be more than six years ago.
- 1:06:36And their revenue per employee,
- 1:06:38like when you do the numbers,
- 1:06:40if that's what their value is,
- 1:06:42that means they building in that next year which is I mean there people that have said publicly they be at a trillion dollars of revenue next year which I don believe in but let assume it 300 billion Okay Well that a lot of revenues And if they don have a lot of employees the question is
- 1:06:58shouldn't we be taxing them at some huge rate for their AI agents? And shouldn't there be
- 1:07:03taxation because the government's not receiving it from the individuals.
- 1:07:07So when the humanoids come and all this stuff, corporations will start paying taxes because
- 1:07:11labor has suffered relative to capital. It's almost like a form of UBI. Exactly. But it's
- 1:07:16happening through taxing the robots, which I believe will happen. And it's probably a better
- 1:07:21outcome. It's a better outcome. And I think it will only happen. And I think that's something
- 1:07:25that both parties could agree on. Yeah. Because I do believe that the one place that the merge
- 1:07:31has happened, Donald Trump won on trying to help the masses. He believed tariffs were good for
- 1:07:37regenerating the, you know, the, the Midwest and the people that have been left out at the expense
- 1:07:43of the coastline. Well, I think in the democratic party, even though they win on the coastline,
- 1:07:47you can't run without kind of going towards people that are being impacted. And I think they
- 1:07:54want to tax people that have most of the money. Now, maybe it won't be the individuals because
- 1:07:58that becomes a state thing and people run from different States. But I think for corporations,
- 1:08:02it's a little bit easier if the data center thing no one's gonna like if their pay's been disrupted
- 1:08:09by ai agents and robots and that's what the next five years is agents have not replaced people at
- 1:08:16work what has happened is they have not hired people yeah and then the corporate ladder has
- 1:08:22stopped so you can't go up any further and the costs haven't changed inside the city so i think
- 1:08:28this is what builds the anger is humans do much better with hope and if hope has been taken away
- 1:08:34which is what the corporate ladder and getting more money in the future is then i think someone
- 1:08:38is to blame data centers are to blame potentially i think robots and agents will be taxed that makes
- 1:08:44sense to me and it's also like without that you're going to get huge social disruption i think the
- 1:08:48companies will be happy to pay it i i do too um the and that's another reason why at the end of the
- 1:08:53day the government involvement the forcing of it i just think the growth for these companies the
- 1:08:58multiple you have to the more the government gets involved in your business i don't think they're
- 1:09:02getting involved in businesses that are making two million dollars no i think they're getting
- 1:09:05involved in businesses that are making trillions of dollars yeah and so if that's the case that is
- 1:09:10another redistribution that everyone would vote for because nobody i mean when you get to a
- 1:09:15corporation it's like how many people actually make most of the money it's very concentrated
- 1:09:19even inside a corporation so it's it's very challenging and the threat to the ai data center
- 1:09:24companies as an example is it's you pay the tax that's essentially like ubi or you get people
- 1:09:28throwing molotov cocktails at your data centers you know it's an easy choice um i have two more
- 1:09:34of the big questions i want to ask you first of all if this happens we have huge deflationary
- 1:09:40effects from ai there's huge disruption in the stock market what happens to the sort of the debt
- 1:09:46based fiat system that we live in today? Nothing as long as it's PEs collapsing. So again,
- 1:09:53if the stock prices don't go down fast, the problem with deflation every time I get asked it,
- 1:10:01the depression was not about prices going down. It was about them going down in a short amount of
- 1:10:06time. If prices in public stocks go down, that would matter because that's the only place people
- 1:10:14can invest. If tokenization happens and your money gets redistributed, then those assets deflate while
- 1:10:21the other ones go up. This is the whole beauty of crypto. Crypto is not big enough now to offset it,
- 1:10:27but over the course of a decade, that's how things change. So the best way to think about it is
- 1:10:31we have a bear market in the US market right now. We have a lot of companies trading at 52-week
- 1:10:37lows. We have a lot of companies that are unchanged over the course of the last decade.
- 1:10:41down why is that well because they're in a bear market the problem i don't think people understand
- 1:10:49is that's not causing any problems because the overall situation's better that's what's going
- 1:10:55to happen if the total sum of assets doesn't collapse and the only reason it collapses
- 1:11:01is because of the synchronization of debt which doesn exist anymore that why the rate thing doesn matter anymore It used to be if the dominoes of the private sector having so much debt I mean why did the
- 1:11:13great financial crisis happen? Okay. People were speculating on housing. Banks were speculating
- 1:11:19on housing and corporations were speculating on, they were all speculating on housing.
- 1:11:24Now nobody's speculating with debt anymore. It's just not happening. Private credit is not a
- 1:11:29problem. Like the BDCs are trading at the correct level. The people are trapped. It's not the debt
- 1:11:35that's a problem. It's the liquidity that's a problem. And the companies have rules. We like
- 1:11:39Blackstone's not going to give them their money back because this is the rule. You signed up for
- 1:11:44this. They got the money to give them back. That's why they were like, here's 500. You know, they
- 1:11:49were writing checks to people. Now they're like, how many outflows we got? Nah, screw them. It's
- 1:11:53fine. It doesn't really matter. So I'm not worried about the collapse in any way. I think this is
- 1:11:58going to be a deflationary in certain situations, which has happened. Actually, the whole world is
- 1:12:05that it happened since the great financial crisis until, you know, at the end of 2023, 2022.
- 1:12:14Every part of the world was basically unchanged since 2007, except for the United States of
- 1:12:19America. That's how it became 73, 74% of MSCI world. So if people don't realize what happened,
- 1:12:25You were in a living example of what's going to happen.
- 1:12:29If crypto goes up, but nothing else goes up much, there's a rebalancing going on.
- 1:12:35And that can happen in a very positive way.
- 1:12:38And I think that's what's going to happen.
- 1:12:40Okay.
- 1:12:40And then last question.
- 1:12:42You described how Bitcoin sort of crypto is going to benefit massively from this agentic
- 1:12:48economy.
- 1:12:49Can we take crypto out for a second?
- 1:12:51Because I think I understand that part with stable coins.
- 1:12:53What role will Bitcoin play?
- 1:12:56So Bitcoin to me is the end result of,
- 1:13:00and I guess the best way to do this
- 1:13:02is to take people on a little bit of a journey.
- 1:13:04So to make sure people understand,
- 1:13:07they've heard the gold standard,
- 1:13:09and I'm sure the sophistication level of your audience,
- 1:13:14most of them must know that effectively
- 1:13:17we eventually got off the gold standard,
- 1:13:19and the Great Depression was one of the major reasons.
- 1:13:21so when we went global and countries were figuring out how to trust each other gold became the
- 1:13:29necessary thing to i trust you you trust me and we've got gold backing this up so then we go into
- 1:13:33this new system where it's kind of free for all we're off the gold standard and everyone's just
- 1:13:37like we have this printing press and we learned in the great depression that the worst thing is if
- 1:13:41you if your hands are tied we don't want that because then when everyone tries to sell at the
- 1:13:47same time and the world is interconnected it's it's a fucking problem now with the great financial
- 1:13:52crisis we just printed money and we had this helicopter thing we're like we'll shoot it out
- 1:13:55and they kind of tried it they didn't really try it well there were still votes it's a tarp vote
- 1:14:01it took it was a very messy thing but then covid happened and everyone around the globe went
- 1:14:06let's just print from all directions and that's what happened and so we learned that we have that
- 1:14:11the reason bitcoin is important is because it gets us back to the point of we definitely need a gold
- 1:14:16standard in a world where we don't have to worry about that scenario because at some point to
- 1:14:22redistribute things, there has to be a standard and Bitcoin is the standard. There would be no
- 1:14:26crypto except for the Bitcoin white paper. The Bitcoin white paper got it. So I've always said
- 1:14:31that Bitcoin is one of the things that is the most important thing that we all have to deal with in
- 1:14:36life. There are only three motes that I know of. Gold has been accepted by human beings. It has
- 1:14:42been accepted as the store of value it's carried on for thousands of years at some point someone
- 1:14:49said not seashells this one's the one yeah religion survives it doesn't matter how much information
- 1:14:56i made a joke that i'm like kids still believe in santa claus but they have an iphone like it's a
- 1:15:01it's a beautiful thing that you can have religion last for all this time and bitcoin is the third
- 1:15:06one it's been chosen it's a belief now it's a belief that it is the digital asset store of value
- 1:15:12So when you have a system that operates,
- 1:15:14you need something that is the bank,
- 1:15:17that is the trust for it to function.
- 1:15:20And so I believe Bitcoin is that.
- 1:15:22And then the other thing is it is a moat against time So in a world of deflation and i want to make sure people understand because this word deflation everyone jumps to that means assets are going down and i
- 1:15:33want to keep saying hyper competition is deflation that's what it means when innovation is so fast
- 1:15:40it's driving down the cost to zero and then everyone that can't afford to run their business
- 1:15:45at zero goes out of business and the debt that's associated with it okay but that's not happening
- 1:15:51you're going to have hyper competition so in a world of deflation where i have a business i'm
- 1:15:57being out competed by ai then your business starts heading towards zero bitcoin doesn't have a value
- 1:16:04it doesn't have cash flows it doesn't have anything so if you're losing over here you're like let me
- 1:16:09put it over here that's what a store of value is but it's a deflationary store of value gold standard
- 1:16:15was a deflationary asset that's what you wanted to own during the great depression
- 1:16:21because you knew it was going to be worth something.
- 1:16:23Only later on in the fiat system did people go,
- 1:16:26I need to have gold because I'm going to inflate my way out.
- 1:16:29Stocks have been just as good as gold as an inflationary hedge.
- 1:16:33So in a deflationary hedge, you lose on all of your assets except for Bitcoin,
- 1:16:39probably gold as well, but I think Bitcoin is a better choice.
- 1:16:42And so earlier in the show, we were talking about the $900 trillion of assets
- 1:16:46and Bitcoin's just under $2 trillion right now.
- 1:16:49how big does it have to become to become relevant like you said earlier like it's not really a
- 1:16:53relevant figure to actually soak up all of that that 900 trillion how big does bitcoin have to
- 1:16:58become i i've said that i think by 2035 the crypto ecosystem the total crypto market cap has to be at
- 1:17:08least 100 trillion kind of in the in the vision i am and that's assuming a bunch of of so i do
- 1:17:14everything in probabilities of three. So let's assume crypto doesn't grow and the fiat system
- 1:17:19just continues as it is. And we just keep printing money and the assets go up and crypto ends up
- 1:17:25still being six trillion in a decade. And it just grows by the amount of liquidity. That's one
- 1:17:30scenario. The second one is that I'm right about the deflationary side and people get frustrated
- 1:17:34with their fiat assets. There's a move to tokenization. That money moves into the guard
- 1:17:38rails because now it's all moving into the guard rails and Bitcoin benefits. And it probably stays
- 1:17:4333% of the assets, meaning it goes down from 60 down and you have the ecosystem,
- 1:17:50the crypto rails that grow more. And then the third scenario is that I'm actually
- 1:17:55underestimating the agents moving away from all of this other stuff and they're investing
- 1:18:01primarily in Bitcoin. And I think that's a smaller possibility, but I would put it equally
- 1:18:06at the same as the other. So I just come to a hundred trillion dollars is something that I
- 1:18:11think is valid. And I think Bitcoin will be at a minimum a third of that. So that means it's market
- 1:18:17cap in a decade in my mind of just, again, if it wasn't for AI, this would not happen. This is all
- 1:18:22about the deflationary pressures hurting the way the current 900 trillion looks at it at the same
- 1:18:28point of them being able to value it from the programmable side. And they're actually getting
- 1:18:32interested and I can feel it. So at 33 trillion, you can go through your whole side and be like,
- 1:18:37okay, well, he's saying it's going to be worth 17 times where it is today.
- 1:18:41That's a good number to go off of.
- 1:18:43And I can live with that.
- 1:18:44And then you get to a million and everyone can go have their million party.
- 1:18:48I'll take, I'll take 33 trillion in 10 years time.
- 1:18:50That sounds good.
- 1:18:51In 10 years, just got to be patient.
- 1:18:54Jordy, this has been amazing.
- 1:18:55I've still got a thousand questions that I want to ask you,
- 1:18:57but we'll have to do it again sometime.
- 1:18:59Really appreciate you coming on the show.
- 1:19:00And I'll be your Freddie Mercury for the, for the next one.
- 1:19:04You can ask me whatever questions you want.
- 1:19:06And tell everyone where they can find your show or the work you do.
- 1:19:12AI.22vresearch.com where they can start from my own LLC website, which is visser-labs.com
- 1:19:20and they can find everything there, but they can also find me on LinkedIn on X, Substack.
- 1:19:25I'm everywhere.
- 1:19:26You're everywhere.
- 1:19:27I appreciate you, man.
- 1:19:28That was really good.
- 1:19:29Thanks, Danny.
- 1:19:30Thanks, Danny.
- 1:19:36Thank you.