Latest / The Morning Edition / A week of reality checks: ‘Pauline for PM’ and the true state of the AUKUS pact

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A week of reality checks: ‘Pauline for PM’ and the true state of the AUKUS pact · The Morning Edition

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  S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from
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  S1: the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
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  S1: I am joined, as usual, from Canberra by our chief
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  S1: political correspondent, Paul Circle. And also we have our elegant tall,
• 0:15
  S1: the man with Elan, Matthew Knots, who is our national
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  S1: security correspondent, also joining from Canberra.
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  S2: I'm blushing all over.
• 0:24
  S3: These these introductions for everyone, but may just get more
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  S3: glowing by the week.
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  S1: I know you take for.
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  S2: Granted the people who are always there.
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  S3: No, we do love to have Noddy in Canberra. He
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  S3: brings a vibe.
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  S2: Of Get More Love.
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  S3: Brings a vibrancy to the office that just doesn't exist
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  S3: when you're not here.
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  S1: Yeah, he's a man on the move and a man
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  S1: on the make. Now listen, the big news this week
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  S1: guys in Canberra was the Redbridge poll, which was published
• 0:46
  S1: in The Australian Financial Review on Monday. And it showed
• 0:48
  S1: that for the first time, One Nation was actually out
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  S1: polling on its primary vote, both major parties. So not
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  S1: just the coalition but also labor. It had a primary
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  S1: vote at 31%, and Labor's primary vote was down three
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  S1: points to 28%. The coalition vote is just a distant
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  S1: third at 20%. It also showed that Pauline Hanson is
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  S1: the second place winner in the preferred PM stakes ahead
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  S1: of Angus Taylor. And it also showed that Hanson is
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  S1: the most popular politician in the entire country. So they
• 1:22
  S1: do this funny thing about favorability ratings and her net
• 1:26
  S1: favorability rating. So the people who hate her versus the
• 1:30
  S1: people who like her came out at zero, which is
• 1:32
  S1: actually good because most people are in the sort of
• 1:35
  S1: deep negative territory. Then on on Sunday, Sky news broadcast
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  S1: an interview with Hanson where she was asked or really
• 1:43
  S1: pushed as to whether or not she would ever like
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  S1: to be prime minister. And she said, do I want
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  S1: to be Prime Minister? Well, I tell you what, I
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  S1: won't knock the job because I believe that I have
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  S1: the ability to do it. Has this caused shockwaves in Canberra?
• 1:55
  S3: It absolutely did. And that poll that you talk about
• 1:58
  S3: on the Monday was backed up by a poll on
• 2:01
  S3: Wednesday evening. I think it was from YouGov, which is
• 2:04
  S3: another reputable firm published by Sky news, which also had
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  S3: the coalition depressed in the low 20s and One Nation
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  S3: rising above Labour for the first time also. So we
• 2:13
  S3: now have two quite credible polls showing that One Nation
• 2:16
  S3: has continued its rise and is now ahead of the
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  S3: Labour Party. That Monday poll did spark a lot of
• 2:22
  S3: debate in Canberra, because it was one of those moments
• 2:26
  S3: where the coalition MPs were looking to the polls to
• 2:29
  S3: observe what they hoped would be a post-budget boost. The
• 2:32
  S3: opposition has come out with a number of headline policies
• 2:35
  S3: on tax and migration. The government's been having a difficult
• 2:38
  S3: time selling its budget and the coalition's been leading the
• 2:40
  S3: attack against it. And despite that, the coalition has somehow
• 2:44
  S3: gone backwards. So this has sparked this question in some
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  S3: of the minds of the coalition MPs who are asking,
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  S3: does it actually matter what we say or do at
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  S3: this moment? Or is the anti-establishment, anti-major party vibe so
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  S3: strong that any discontent that arises out of government actions
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  S3: just flows to the anti-establishment candidate who has grown in
• 3:03
  S3: legitimacy being Hanson. And so we're in this moment where
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  S3: the coalition doesn't quite know what to do. They're trying
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  S3: to get the fundamentals right and become a competent outfit again.
• 3:12
  S3: And they believe they're doing that. And now labor is
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  S3: also looking at one nation and saying, hmm, this looks
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  S3: like a growing issue for us as well.
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  S1: Yeah. Barnaby Joyce, of course, who has defected to One Nation,
• 3:22
  S1: actually explicitly thanked labor for the budget because he basically
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  S1: said that was the unpopularity of the budget, has sent
• 3:29
  S1: votes on one nation's way, according to this poll. You
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  S1: also interviewed Hanson this week for Inside Politics as a
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  S1: sort of special podcast. People should check that out. It
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  S1: will be in the field, in the feed. What did
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  S1: you glean about her state of mind amid this sort
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  S1: of surge of support and attention and popularity?
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  S3: Yeah, we did interview her on Wednesday, which people can
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  S3: listen to. And just on your comments about Barnaby Joyce, Jack,
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  S3: the deep irony of One Nation's, uh, the support that
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  S3: One Nation has drawn post-budget. Is that one of the
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  S3: key framings of the budget from Labour, from the government,
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  S3: was that they were breaking their promise on tax changes
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  S3: to ameliorate populist discontent, to take an action that would
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  S3: benefit people in the suburbs who were feeling economic hardship.
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  S3: But it looks like, at least at this stage, and
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  S3: things could definitely change that the the trust that was
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  S3: broken in the budget and the negativity that that spurred
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  S3: has actually benefited One Nation. But sorry, back to your
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  S3: question on Hanson. It was a it was a difficult interview.
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  S3: She's a defensive character. As you and I discussed yesterday, Jack,
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  S3: she's not someone who has, you know, free wheeling, open
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  S3: back and forths with TV journalists or print reporters. It's
• 4:38
  S3: part of her style is to be pretty prickly, to
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  S3: be forthright. She doesn't want to concede. She has a
• 4:44
  S3: she builds up a narrative that the mainstream media is
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  S3: always out to get her and painting her as immoral,
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  S3: and she probably has some reason to believe that to
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  S3: be true. But she's a contentious figure. She's made a
• 4:54
  S3: bunch of comments which have been viewed as racist. She
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  S3: hasn't been scrutinized on many policy issues to date. She's
• 5:02
  S3: pitching herself as prime minister, but there are huge questions
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  S3: about whether she is a credible, coherent option to lead
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  S3: the country and all the complexity that entails. And on
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  S3: that question of whether she wants to be a prime minister,
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  S3: I thought that was probably the most interesting part of
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  S3: my interview with her. She gave contradictory answers on whether
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  S3: she will pitch herself as a PM at the next election.
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  S3: She's in a polling position to do so, but she says,
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  S3: I haven't made my mind up. Of course I'm the
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  S3: leader of a party, so if I get there, I'll
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  S3: be the prime minister. But she doesn't want to yet
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  S3: put herself forward and say, I am running to be
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  S3: the Prime Minister. Partly because there's a worry inside one
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  S3: nation that once she does pitch herself in that way,
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  S3: that's a long period for people to view her as
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  S3: someone who wants actual power, rather than just positioning it
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  S3: as an outside disrupter, throwing stones at the major parties.
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  S3: It changes the complexion of the debate, and that could
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  S3: be more tricky for her.
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  S1: Nadia, I want to bring you in here for a
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  S1: bit of a reality check because even though we're seeing
• 5:56
  S1: this surge in support for One Nation, which is quite extraordinary.
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  S1: And it tells us a lot about the mood of
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  S1: the electorate. Pauline Hanson doesn't have a seat in the
• 6:03
  S1: lower house, which she would need if she was to
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  S1: be prime Minister. She would also need at least a
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  S1: sizeable minority, if not a majority of the lower house,
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  S1: to be One Nation MPs. At the moment, they have
• 6:15
  S1: trouble finding candidates, quite frankly, who are in any way credible,
• 6:19
  S1: with the exception of David Farley, who's just been elected
• 6:21
  S1: in Farrer. Previous candidates have had rape convictions against them
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  S1: and that kind of thing. I mean, is this all
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  S1: is this all a little bit overblown or are we
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  S1: getting ahead of ourselves if we're talking about Pauline Hanson
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  S1: as Prime Minister?
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  S2: Ah, I don't think it's so much a matter of
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  S2: getting ahead of ourselves, but I think it is a
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  S2: turning point of everyone waking up and realizing we have
• 6:42
  S2: to take her very seriously. I think we went through this.
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  S2: The world did in the United States with Donald Trump,
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  S2: and sites like the Huffington Post famously were covering him
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  S2: as an entertainment story, and his stories about Donald Trump's
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  S2: presidential run were badged as entertainment because it was seen
• 7:02
  S2: as not serious. And then he ended up winning. I
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  S2: think the same is happening here with Pauline Hanson, where
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  S2: the whole political media establishment is realising you have to
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  S2: take her seriously, at the very least as an opposition leader,
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  S2: potentially in the next term, or possibly prime minister, even
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  S2: though she herself, as Paul said, is prevaricating about whether
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  S2: she really wants to claim that mantle because that will
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  S2: change the way everyone views her. She and her policies
• 7:35
  S2: and her candidates will be subjected to a lot more scrutiny.
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  S2: But I think, yeah, a lot of us have underestimated
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  S2: how big this is. Obviously, things can change between now
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  S2: and the next election, particularly as she does get more scrutiny.
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  S2: But this is being replicated across a lot of polls now.
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  S2: It's clearly not just a one off phenomenon, and I
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  S2: think Australians have to come to terms with the fact
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  S2: that we're living in a country where lots of people
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  S2: think that Pauline Hanson is the best political leader in
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  S2: the country.
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  S1: Paul, what do we have any indication of what lower
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  S1: house seat she would she would contest at the next
• 8:15
  S1: election if she wanted to move to the lower house
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  S1: and have a crack at forming government or even opposition.
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  S3: Yeah, yeah we do. So I asked her about this.
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  S3: She said that she hadn't made her mind up yet.
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  S3: She could remain in the Senate and pitch herself as
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  S3: a prime minister from the Senate, which the Constitution doesn't
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  S3: actually preclude. John Gorton, the Liberal prime minister, was in
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  S3: the Senate for a few months before moving to the
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  S3: lower House, but convention dictates that they come from the
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  S3: lower house. And it would be it would be, you know,
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  S3: quite a controversial thing to run as prime minister from
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  S3: the Senate. On going downstairs, she says that she's looking
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  S3: at the seat of Blair, which is a labor held
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  S3: seat in the outer suburbs of Brisbane. Also, the LNP
• 8:52
  S3: held seat of Wright and in the regions. She's also
• 8:56
  S3: considering the LNP seat of Capricornia, which is currently held
• 9:00
  S3: by the nationals and which nationals MP Matt Senator Matt
• 9:04
  S3: Canavan is also eyeing off to run in the lower house.
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  S3: So I suspect if Hanson does make that switch, Canavan
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  S3: would probably not be up for that fight given the
• 9:12
  S3: nationals polling position. But there the seat she's looking at
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  S3: and she hasn't made a call on whether to go
• 9:16
  S3: go down. I mean, we're so far away. This conversation
• 9:18
  S3: is obviously very premature. We don't know what the polling
• 9:21
  S3: position will be six months out from the election. So
• 9:24
  S3: things could dramatically change. But we'll see.
• 9:26
  S1: Yeah, it's been interesting to see the coalition really sort
• 9:30
  S1: of flounder, I would say, in how they take on
• 9:32
  S1: One Nation, because there is, um, sort of a core
• 9:36
  S1: or a flank of the of the coalition and particularly
• 9:39
  S1: the Liberal Party that basically is like, we don't want
• 9:41
  S1: to offend her voters and almost trying to ape her.
• 9:44
  S1: And we'll talk about Tony Abbott becoming the president of
• 9:47
  S1: the Liberal Party in a moment and the messaging he's
• 9:49
  S1: putting out. Um, there are other people within the Liberal
• 9:52
  S1: Party in the coalition who are like, hang on, She's
• 9:54
  S1: our main political rival now. Like, this is where we
• 9:57
  S1: need to have our eyes trained. This is like an
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  S1: alternative opposition leader that is is springing up here. There's
• 10:02
  S1: been a little bit of criticism this week that's come
• 10:04
  S1: out of the coalition. I've noticed about her attendance record
• 10:07
  S1: in Parliament. So this is some of the scrutiny that
• 10:09
  S1: a lot of people say hasn't been applied to her
• 10:11
  S1: because she hasn't been taken seriously. Like, does she actually
• 10:14
  S1: show up to Parliament? She hasn't got a very good
• 10:16
  S1: attendance record, does she?
• 10:18
  S2: This this has been a long running thing. I was
• 10:20
  S2: just remembering writing about this, I think, before the 2017
• 10:25
  S2: WA state election. It's something that political parties, uh, seize
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  S2: upon ahead of elections or when Pauline Hanson's Hanson is surging,
• 10:33
  S2: as has happened in the past, and she has a
• 10:36
  S2: long record of not coming to Parliament very much and
• 10:39
  S2: not applying officials to scrutiny at things like Senate estimates. Now,
• 10:45
  S2: there is the case that most Australians wouldn't be particularly
• 10:49
  S2: invested in these issues. Senate estimates can be a bit
• 10:53
  S2: inside the the Beltway, but it's definitely got under her
• 10:57
  S2: skin because she's been here a lot more than usual,
• 11:00
  S2: and she's been showing up and questioning a defense officials.
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  S2: And it rankled her a bit that the opposition was
• 11:06
  S2: going on the attack over this. But it's clearly not
• 11:10
  S2: a long term strategy. They're going to have to find
• 11:14
  S2: other grounds of attack about her policies, about whether she
• 11:18
  S2: can govern, about where this would take Australia. This is
• 11:21
  S2: just one small tactical move, as they actually figure out
• 11:25
  S2: the strategy of how to deal with her.
• 11:27
  S1: Yeah, it strikes me as well that they are applying
• 11:30
  S1: sort of conventional parliamentary attacks to her, if you like,
• 11:33
  S1: and it's not at all evident to me that her
• 11:35
  S1: supporters would particularly care if she shows up to Senate estimates.
• 11:39
  S1: I'm thinking about Donald Trump and all of his executive time.
• 11:41
  S1: I mean, you know that he has marked in the
• 11:44
  S1: presidential diary, you know, they don't if they're looking for
• 11:47
  S1: an outsider politician who's anti-establishment, they don't care if she
• 11:51
  S1: shows up to the establishment. Stuff like parliamentary Senate estimates.
• 11:56
  S2: No, it only it only goes that sorry, it only
• 11:59
  S2: it only goes at the future issue of. Are you
• 12:02
  S2: an outsider? Populist outside the system is a very different
• 12:07
  S2: way of thinking about someone as opposed to a potential
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  S2: Prime minister, where obviously you have to show up and
• 12:13
  S2: you also have to travel the world representing Australia. These
• 12:17
  S2: are all the types of things we have to think
• 12:19
  S2: about and she has to think about. So that's that's
• 12:23
  S2: the issue here of, you know, is she becoming so
• 12:25
  S2: successful in the short term that it could cause problems
• 12:29
  S2: because people will look at her in a different way.
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  S3: Yeah.
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  S1: There's also the her links to Gina Rinehart, Australia's richest woman.
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  S1: She's taken the gift of a of a private plane,
• 12:40
  S1: which she says she uses for her political business. Do
• 12:45
  S1: you think that that enough scrutiny has been applied to
• 12:47
  S1: that relationship?
• 12:49
  S3: I think that will come that will come over time.
• 12:51
  S3: At this stage. No, it hasn't, and there's been some
• 12:54
  S3: bluster from One Nation which doesn't reflect their private worry
• 12:56
  S3: about this issue. When they get a donation, they say
• 12:59
  S3: this is just us getting what we deserve. A wealthy
• 13:02
  S3: person wants to back us, and that's a good thing
• 13:04
  S3: because they see our vision for the country. But internally
• 13:07
  S3: in one nation, they know that over time, again, as
• 13:10
  S3: as as the vibe potentially wears off and the normal
• 13:14
  S3: scrutiny does get applied to Hanson as an election nears
• 13:17
  S3: that this could materialize into a problem. I asked Hansen
• 13:20
  S3: about this in the podcast and she said, no, I'm
• 13:22
  S3: not going to be overly influenced by Gina Rinehart, who
• 13:25
  S3: is one nation's biggest backer. Of course, I'll listen to
• 13:28
  S3: her on policy, but I'm an independent person. But there
• 13:31
  S3: are already signs of evidence that that's not the case.
• 13:35
  S3: There's this vociferous support from One Nation for Ben Roberts-Smith,
• 13:38
  S3: who's been charged with war crimes, which legal analysts have
• 13:43
  S3: said could prohibit or make it more difficult, I should say,
• 13:47
  S3: for a fair trial to be had there. And there's
• 13:50
  S3: also Hanson's policy for 5% of GDP to be spent
• 13:53
  S3: on defence, which would absolutely blow apart the budget. The
• 13:57
  S3: only other person in Australia who has called for that,
• 14:00
  S3: that I'm aware of is Gina Rinehart herself. And Donald
• 14:03
  S3: Trump was obviously called for NATO allies to spend 5%,
• 14:06
  S3: but Pete Hegseth has only sought 3.5% from Australia. We're
• 14:09
  S3: currently in the low twos, so it's a kind of
• 14:12
  S3: ludicrous policy to put forward, and Rinehart's the only other
• 14:15
  S3: person who has advocated for it.
• 14:17
  S1: Yeah, I'm glad you brought up defence and enormous amounts
• 14:20
  S1: of money being spent on it, because I want to
• 14:21
  S1: segue gently now to submarines which have been in the
• 14:24
  S1: news this week. Noddy, there's an important development about the
• 14:27
  S1: types of submarines we're going to get. We're getting quality
• 14:30
  S1: retreads and instead of newbies. Right?
• 14:33
  S2: Yes. This came up over the weekend after the Aukus
• 14:37
  S2: ministers met in Singapore, and I don't think it was
• 14:41
  S2: particularly well communicated at the start. And more and more
• 14:44
  S2: has been coming out during the week, including through Senate estimates.
• 14:48
  S2: But this is a change to the plan. The plan
• 14:51
  S2: is for Australia to buy a three Virginia class. Submarines
• 14:56
  S2: from the United States. These are nuclear powered, very advanced,
• 15:01
  S2: very expensive submarines. The plan that was devised in 2023
• 15:06
  S2: would have seen Australia buy a two used or second
• 15:11
  S2: hand submarines. The government prefers to call them in service. But,
• 15:14
  S2: you know, they're used their existing and one new submarine
• 15:19
  S2: that would be a more advanced model. The ministers announced
• 15:23
  S2: over the weekend that Australia is going to buy now
• 15:26
  S2: three second hand submarines of the same type. Now, to
• 15:30
  S2: many understandably kind of normal people, when you hear that,
• 15:34
  S2: you go, well, a new submarine is much better than
• 15:37
  S2: an old one. Are we being ripped off here? There's
• 15:41
  S2: a lot of disquiet about Aukus. I think generally the
• 15:44
  S2: polls have shown most Australians actually like the idea of
• 15:48
  S2: getting nuclear powered submarines, but all the complexity of it,
• 15:51
  S2: the issues of dealing with Trump, the cost of it.
• 15:55
  S2: You know, there's a lot of worries about it. And
• 15:57
  S2: so when people hear something about, oh, we're getting old
• 16:00
  S2: submarines instead of new submarines, the feeling is, are we
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  S2: being ripped off now? What's come out through the week
• 16:06
  S2: from the government and through defense officials, is that this
• 16:10
  S2: was Australia's preference from the start to acquire three submarines
• 16:17
  S2: of the same type, which is then raising the issue of, well,
• 16:20
  S2: why for 18 months have we been being told that
• 16:25
  S2: we're getting the best deal? And now this is actually
• 16:28
  S2: another deal is the better deal. So it's been quite
• 16:31
  S2: a confusing week. We've seen a former cabinet minister, Ed Husic,
• 16:35
  S2: put up his head and raise doubts about it. You know,
• 16:38
  S2: pointing to some worries that have very much been there
• 16:42
  S2: within the labor movement. So it's been a messy week
• 16:45
  S2: for the government on Aukus. And there are even amongst
• 16:49
  S2: Aukus supporters. There's quite a bit of worry about just
• 16:53
  S2: the social goodwill, the public sentiment towards this program. Also
• 16:57
  S2: the sense there's not enough transparency about it and there's
• 17:01
  S2: a lot more work to be done there for something
• 17:03
  S2: that's going to run for decades and is expensive and complicated.
• 17:07
  S1: I mean, as a casual observer who doesn't know much
• 17:10
  S1: about submarines and therefore can probably, you know, be in
• 17:13
  S1: greater sympathy with the general population than a submarine wonk.
• 17:17
  S1: It sounds like a bad deal. And if it's not
• 17:19
  S1: a bad deal, then and if it's actually the deal
• 17:21
  S1: that we wanted, why didn't we ask for it in
• 17:22
  S1: the first place? And what does all of this say
• 17:24
  S1: about the amount of leverage we have within this Aukus
• 17:27
  S1: arrangement with the Americans? If we couldn't ask for what
• 17:30
  S1: we actually wanted?
• 17:31
  S2: Well, that's the thing. What what is being suggested now
• 17:34
  S2: is that this is what we asked for. But we
• 17:37
  S2: were told it wasn't possible at the time that, say,
• 17:40
  S2: there wouldn't be three of the same type available for Australia,
• 17:44
  S2: that the US wasn't up to delivering that at the time.
• 17:49
  S2: What the head of the Australian Submarine Agency, Jonathan Meade,
• 17:52
  S2: who's been kind of the orcas czar, said last night.
• 17:55
  S2: He said quite explicitly, Australia has been asking for this,
• 17:59
  S2: working behind the scenes with the US for 18 months
• 18:02
  S2: to try and get this exact outcome, because what we
• 18:06
  S2: want is to be able to have everyone trained up
• 18:10
  S2: on the same submarines using the same spare parts. Just
• 18:14
  S2: this is super complicated already. To add in a whole
• 18:18
  S2: new one would be more complicated. But what what comes
• 18:22
  S2: back then is. So essentially, did we sign up to
• 18:25
  S2: America foisting upon us initially a more expensive, more complicated
• 18:30
  S2: submarine that we didn't need? And we signed up to
• 18:33
  S2: it because we don't have any other option. And America
• 18:38
  S2: has more leverage than us. Yes, it seems that's what happened.
• 18:42
  S3: And the other reason why the government is in private
• 18:45
  S3: pitching the developments this week as a good sign is
• 18:49
  S3: because there's been months now of conjecture that the US,
• 18:52
  S3: under some sceptical Pentagon officials, are actually not keen to
• 18:55
  S3: hand over subs at all because of the poor production
• 18:57
  S3: rate in their own industrial operation. This news this week,
• 19:02
  S3: they say, points to the fact that the US is
• 19:04
  S3: moving forward with Aukus pinpointing the boats we will get.
• 19:08
  S3: So they say that it displays the. Yes, there are
• 19:12
  S3: questions about how Aukus will move forward, elements on which
• 19:16
  S3: there are doubts. But they say this is a tangible
• 19:19
  S3: sign that even a skeptical Pentagon, or at least a
• 19:22
  S3: Pentagon with some skeptical elements, is plowing forward with it
• 19:26
  S3: in a specific way, which shows that the Aukus deal
• 19:28
  S3: is on track. Now, that's a technical, nuanced argument that
• 19:32
  S3: struggles to compete with the kind of groundswell of left
• 19:36
  S3: wing opinion against Aukus from much.
• 19:39
  S1: Of the left wing, though. Is it because there are
• 19:40
  S1: people within the coalition who are starting to raise questions
• 19:43
  S1: about this deal? And Joe Hockey, who is a former
• 19:46
  S1: Liberal treasurer and is very well connected in Washington now,
• 19:49
  S1: as a lobbyist said this week that or was it
• 19:52
  S1: last week that he's starting to have doubts about this agreement?
• 19:55
  S3: Well, he he he expressed what is just a fact,
• 19:58
  S3: which is that the industrial capacity in the US is
• 20:00
  S3: is struggling. And so that raises this doubt about whether
• 20:03
  S3: we will get the subs. But so I take it
• 20:05
  S3: I fully take your point. But as I mentioned, the
• 20:08
  S3: government says that this is a sign that despite those doubts,
• 20:11
  S3: the US is pinpointing the subs we will get. And
• 20:13
  S3: I accept that there is doubt outside of the left, Jack,
• 20:16
  S3: but the political momentum against Aukus is coming from the Greens,
• 20:20
  S3: the labor base, the union movement. And so that kind
• 20:23
  S3: of anti US anti-achr sentiment is quite difficult to contend with.
• 20:26
  S1: Yeah, I get that. But I think you can unpick
• 20:28
  S1: that from what seems from an outsider's point of view
• 20:31
  S1: to be pretty heavy government spin about something that was
• 20:34
  S1: either an outcome that we wanted and we couldn't get before,
• 20:37
  S1: or an outcome that we didn't want and is being
• 20:39
  S1: foisted upon us. And the idea that they're saying, well, see,
• 20:43
  S1: we're getting submarines under this deal that shows that the
• 20:45
  S1: deal is good. It's like, well, yeah, that was the deal.
• 20:48
  S1: We were always going to get submarines, right? Was that
• 20:51
  S1: ever in doubt?
• 20:52
  S2: Uh, no. I think it's messy. And this was something
• 20:55
  S2: James Patterson, the opposition defence spokesman who was a big
• 20:58
  S2: fan of Aukus, was getting at last night. He said
• 21:01
  S2: I think the way this has been handled has undermined
• 21:04
  S2: public trust in this program because it looks like we're changing.
• 21:08
  S2: And you mentioned Joe Hockey before. He's been out talking
• 21:10
  S2: today about nuclear powered submarines, why they actually matter for
• 21:15
  S2: Australia as a huge island continent. The idea you can
• 21:18
  S2: get from Perth to Sydney in four days instead of
• 21:22
  S2: eight while remaining undetected, I think this whole aspect of
• 21:27
  S2: what submarines are for, including as a defensive capability, has
• 21:31
  S2: been really lost. I guess that can happen as this
• 21:34
  S2: goes on for years and years. But yeah, I think
• 21:37
  S2: that's being lost is what this is fundamentally about, why
• 21:42
  S2: we need them. He points to situations like the Strait
• 21:46
  S2: of Hormuz and the idea of acting as a as
• 21:50
  S2: a deterrent to keep waterways open and trading routes is
• 21:54
  S2: more important than ever. So that's something for the advocates
• 21:58
  S2: to argue, including in the government. I spoke to Scott
• 22:02
  S2: Morrison yesterday who was making this point, is that selling
• 22:05
  S2: this only around jobs and manufacturing, it's going to keep
• 22:09
  S2: people employed in Adelaide isn't good enough, and that the government,
• 22:14
  S2: including the Prime Minister, has to sell it as something
• 22:18
  S2: that's keeping Australia safe.
• 22:20
  S3: The government hasn't effectively made a new argument on orcas
• 22:23
  S3: in public rhetoric since since they signed up to it
• 22:25
  S3: in 2023. The prime minister tries to sticks to talking
• 22:29
  S3: points they rely on. As I've been trying to do,
• 22:33
  S3: explaining their private thinking in public to, you know, cut
• 22:37
  S3: across some of the doubt, which is legitimate doubt. I'm
• 22:39
  S3: not trying to underplay it, but the Prime Minister is
• 22:41
  S3: a strong case, as you say, not to use his
• 22:44
  S3: authority in a really vexed moment in international affairs, where
• 22:48
  S3: there's so much doubt about the Trump administration to make
• 22:50
  S3: a forceful argument as to why we are signed up
• 22:52
  S3: to this thing. There are good arguments there.
• 22:55
  S1: Yeah. I mean, Joe Hockey brought up it's not within
• 22:57
  S1: the living memory of probably anyone now, but, um, that,
• 23:00
  S1: you know, the Japanese invaded Sydney Harbour with their submarines.
• 23:02
  S1: He said submarines are a deterrent. And we didn't have
• 23:04
  S1: them in World War two, and that made us a target.
• 23:07
  S1: I just want to switch briefly to Tony Abbott, because
• 23:10
  S1: he was elected unopposed as the new president of the
• 23:14
  S1: Liberal Party. And, um, he's not been hiding his light
• 23:17
  S1: under a bushel since his election to this post. He
• 23:20
  S1: went on a media blitz, you could say earlier in
• 23:23
  S1: the week talking about liberal values. What did you make
• 23:26
  S1: of that, Paul? And how was it received among his colleagues?
• 23:30
  S3: Well, for weeks leading up to this election, the public
• 23:33
  S3: debate centred on whether he would take attention away from
• 23:36
  S3: the opposition leader, Abbott, someone who, as we learnt in
• 23:39
  S3: the podcast with him in December, Jack has until recent
• 23:43
  S3: years been seeking pre-selection for Liberal Party seats in the
• 23:47
  S3: lower House and in the Senate. Peter Dutton rejected him
• 23:49
  S3: on numerous occasions. So this is not someone lacking in ambition.
• 23:53
  S3: And on Monday, which was two days after he was
• 23:55
  S3: elected at a conference in Melbourne, he did, as you say,
• 23:58
  S3: a morning media blitz. ABC radio, The Today Show with
• 24:01
  S3: Karl Stefanovic. Uh, talking to these issues that you mentioned
• 24:05
  S3: on kind of the cultural malaise that he views high
• 24:08
  S3: rates of immigration, which are very high by OECD standards,
• 24:12
  S3: the drift that he sees in in the country. And
• 24:15
  S3: all of these issues are the ones that are driving
• 24:17
  S3: vote towards one nation. And so the idea is that
• 24:20
  S3: Abbott being back in the show can stem the stem,
• 24:23
  S3: the tide, not someone who's palatable to centre ground voters,
• 24:27
  S3: and certainly not voters who have drifted teal or towards
• 24:30
  S3: labor in the inner cities, but someone who can talk
• 24:33
  S3: to the base, the volunteer network, the donors, and steady
• 24:36
  S3: the ship. Because none of those issues that I mentioned
• 24:39
  S3: at a policy level and at a values level are
• 24:40
  S3: going away. We do have kind of this permanent sense
• 24:44
  S3: on the right flank of politics, that the country is
• 24:46
  S3: in decline. And Abbott is someone who talks firmly to
• 24:49
  S3: these things. I'm reliably told that after his Monday media blitz,
• 24:52
  S3: he's gone overseas. He's on the Fox board and he's
• 24:55
  S3: very much in demand in in in Europe and in
• 24:58
  S3: conservative circles. And he won't be back for a while.
• 25:01
  S3: But he's told Liberal Party staffers around Angus Taylor that
• 25:04
  S3: he's there when, when, when needed, but he won't be
• 25:07
  S3: bobbing up for a while.
• 25:08
  S1: Dottie, what did you make of his sort of foray
• 25:11
  S1: back into politics? I mean, obviously, the things that he
• 25:13
  S1: was talking about spiritual malaise, high, high rates of migration
• 25:17
  S1: when he was on our podcast, he even sort of
• 25:19
  S1: took a left turn and went into trans issues, which
• 25:22
  S1: is not something I'd ever heard him talk about before,
• 25:24
  S1: but which is a very, very totemic cultural war issue for,
• 25:28
  S1: you know, populist. Right. Do you think that that's actually
• 25:32
  S1: going to work to wrest back One Nation voters? And
• 25:35
  S1: what about the centre that they also need to win?
• 25:38
  S2: Yeah. The question is, is the Liberal Party in such
• 25:41
  S2: a dire state that winning back The center is really
• 25:46
  S2: hard right now. Or not worth it.
• 25:48
  S1: Well, they seem to have given up on it.
• 25:50
  S2: And they've given up on it. Perhaps over subsequent elections,
• 25:55
  S2: including the last one. And they're totally hollowed out now.
• 25:58
  S2: And now you've got Pauline Hanson's party, uh, ahead in
• 26:02
  S2: the polls, even of labor. Um, Tony Abbott is definitely
• 26:08
  S2: a controversial figure. Um, but, you know, he speaks in
• 26:10
  S2: a way that gets people's attention. I think that even
• 26:13
  S2: can cut through lots of the noise of politics. He
• 26:17
  S2: speaks to politics as something deeper than just day to
• 26:21
  S2: day transactionalism and managing things. And so as much as
• 26:27
  S2: there's risk in there, including for Angus Taylor, I still
• 26:31
  S2: think he isn't very well known by most people at all.
• 26:34
  S2: And he's got his own he's got his own separate
• 26:36
  S2: challenge to define himself and introduce himself to most voters.
• 26:42
  S2: This is a party in absolute disarray, and I think
• 26:45
  S2: their first priority is to nail down a more conservative,
• 26:50
  S2: probably older Australians take advantage of some of the anger
• 26:54
  S2: out there about the budget and economic issues. And Tony,
• 27:00
  S2: Tony Abbott's prime ministership didn't last very long, but he
• 27:02
  S2: was a very effective opposition leader, and they're going to
• 27:06
  S2: hope those skills can be put to good use.
• 27:08
  S3: To your first point about the position they're in and
• 27:11
  S3: winning back the centre and the fight on the right,
• 27:13
  S3: there's there's a non-zero and growing chance that over the
• 27:16
  S3: next few years, the coalition becomes subsumed into some kind
• 27:20
  S3: of right wing coalition in which they're the they're the
• 27:23
  S3: more junior partner. It seems like a ridiculous prospect, but
• 27:26
  S3: it it is genuinely there. And so he's trying to
• 27:30
  S3: make sure that One Nation does not become the entrenched
• 27:33
  S3: ascendant party in the centre right. That's his job.
• 27:36
  S2: The two party system in Australia that we've had has
• 27:39
  S2: been so durable. But look around the world, the things
• 27:42
  S2: can change very quickly. You're looking at the UK and
• 27:46
  S2: even in France and Israel and parties that were dominating
• 27:49
  S2: for decades don't exist anymore. And I think that's the situation.
• 27:53
  S3: And we've always thought we're immune, but we have a
• 27:55
  S3: lot of the same social problems. Our democratic system has
• 27:58
  S3: some different features which might make us more immune. But
• 28:01
  S3: recent the past year has shown that these forces can
• 28:04
  S3: do exist in Australia, and people need to be alert
• 28:07
  S3: to it.
• 28:07
  S1: I think it's it's a progression of a structural trend
• 28:11
  S1: that we've seen over elections for the last probably decade
• 28:14
  S1: where we've seen the the vote fragment. And, you know,
• 28:16
  S1: at the last election, it was basically one third each
• 28:19
  S1: way towards labor, the coalition and minor parties and independents.
• 28:23
  S1: You know, there was a time when it was said
• 28:25
  S1: that you couldn't win an election, particularly from the labor side,
• 28:28
  S1: if you didn't, if you had less than 30% primary vote.
• 28:31
  S1: I mean, that seems like a really, really high primary
• 28:33
  S1: vote now for either either side of politics. So yeah,
• 28:36
  S1: it's definitely structural. It's not going away. And we're here
• 28:39
  S1: to keep our eye on it. We don't have any
• 28:41
  S1: spiritual malaise in this podcast.
• 28:43
  S3: High spirits, spiritually rich. I can't compete with your bond.
• 28:47
  S3: You two are desk partners. It should be noted for listeners.
• 28:50
  S1: Matt, Matt, Matt and I, when we're in Sydney, are
• 28:52
  S1: kind of like, well, we work husband and wife. I mean,
• 28:54
  S1: is that overstating our relationship? I don't know.
• 28:57
  S2: No, not at all. I'm glad you see it the
• 28:58
  S2: same way that's made my day, actually.
• 29:01
  S1: Yeah. Good, good. Um, it's been fun. Let's do it
• 29:04
  S1: again soon, fellas.
• 29:05
  S3: Talk to you.
• 29:06
  S2: Soon. See you.
• 29:11
  S1: You can read all of our political news on our website,
• 29:14
  S1: theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong
• 29:20
  S1: with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,
• 29:23
  S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
• 29:28
  S1: Before you go, follow Inside Politics and leave us a
• 29:31
  S1: review on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you
• 29:35
  S1: for listening.