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F1 USGP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• f1capper: Apex Insiders is back. We got the US Grand Prix at Coda in Austin. It's finally, finally a decent time for the US audience, including myself, who is actually a local, well, not in Austin, but in Texas, and I'm excited as usual. I am actually going to attend Friday and Saturday, so I will be there. How do you feel about that, F1 Tipster? Darksideday: Well, I won't be there Friday or Saturday or Sunday. But it's nice to have a race weekend where we can all be involved 'cause it isn't four AM or some stupid time like that. f1capper: Jesus. That was brutal, man. That was very brutal. Yeah, it's it's exciting. I'm gonna be taking off tomorrow. And I actually decided you know, someone asked me, they were like, why why are you just going Friday and Saturday? And I was like, you know, the the race is fun, don't get me wrong. Like all the pre parade stuff, whatever. But I've been to Coda many times and getting out of that place and just everything is it could be a cluster. And I also enjoy watching it on TV anyway. So I do enjoy qualifying quite a bit. So I will actually be sitting in turn one for the first time in my life at Coda. I've never actually sat in turn one. So we'll get to we'll get to watch. And Hal Apex the Jen he's joining me. He'll be there. Me and him. We're gonna We're gonna howl max fifty units. You know, that's that's what we're gonna do. Darksideday: I hope so. f1capper: We'll see. We'll see about that. but no, yeah, like Darksideday: And it's not a sprint weekend, so you get to watch all three sessions of practice. f1capper: I was I was about to say, you know, it did not dawn on me they changed it 'cause I'm so used to them for the past what three years they've been doing a sprint format. And I was like, it's not a sprint weekend. Well crap. So I don't you know, we're not gonna really see a race. That's why I also like going, especially if it's a sprint weekend. I do that in Miami with Mech. You know, you get a pretty good flavor of of racing just on Friday and Saturday. It's pretty pretty awesome. But yeah, first time in a while. That we haven't had a sprint weekend. So that will kinda change things a little bit. Not a whole lot in terms of my approach to this weekend. But let's go ahead and dive right into it. Why don't we? So number one, weather right now, absolutely gorgeous. It's not gonna be a concern. maybe it will be cloudy during the race, just tiny bit cooler. I'll I'll do it for you. Europeans, it's gonna be what like twenty-six, twenty-five degrees Celsius on f on Sunday, but I don't know about wind. Wind will always change. I don't I haven't heard anything about like excess wind, so usually that can be problematic at at Coda. but we have the C2, C three, C four. So nothing has really changed. I don't think I'm pretty sure that's what they had last year. traction's obviously gonna be pretty pretty significant here. braking is, you know, you get you got everything. It's it's low, medium, high speed corners, right? obviously the long straight. I think the best way to comp this, especially for recency, Malaysia, right? I I know it's not the exact same, but in terms of like the character characteristics of the car and how you wanna try to have A balanced down force setup for the long straights, but also for turn twelve through fifteen, where it's going to be a lot of windy turns, slow cornering, and obviously the medium speed at the S's as well. So yeah, I think it's I mean Coda's always great. It's always fun. I'm a I'm actually happy that they're doing three practice sessions and that's where I think things are going to be a little bit different. So, like in the past, I mean they would come here and you only had one FP1 session, right? So everyone's scrambling to figure out the right setup and they learn through the sprint what changes they need to make. so now that we got three FP FP sessions, I think that you know the teams are gonna have a little bit more time. They're gonna probably maybe play around a little bit more. in FP one and in FP2 to determine how they want to approach it with FP three. So I'm kind of cautioning on what results were, especially last year, for many reasons. It's a new regulation of the cars, but you know, I think that's from a driver performance standpoint who performs well here, it could it could be a little bit different. You know, the guys will be able to find and squeeze those margins through the Free practice sessions when they're optimizing their setup. So just feedback on what I think, you know, when you're approaching your free money Friday picks. And yeah, I which I have not even checked to see if we have free money Friday, if any FP is come out. I know that there was already is it Colton Herda that's actually driving for Cadillac this weekend? Is that what I heard? Maybe. Darksideday: I cannot remember. f1capper: I believe that's one. So we're just kind of paying attention because I think that's why I haven't seen it. Darksideday: Yeah, he is. f1capper: Yeah. So that's one of them. I don't know if there was another since then. I haven't checked. yeah, like we only have practice one margin, winning margin on Bet 365. Let me check, see if we have anything. yeah. Darksideday: Jam at the same. f1capper: Yeah. I think only margins are out. So we're gonna have to. Sorry guys, we're not gonna have a free Monday Friday play on the pod, unfortunately. There is really nothing out there. But w why not? Let me make an assumption. What are the s I'm doing the same markets anyways, I could just probably spit it off the top of my head and give you a price. I mean what well, I don't know about that. Darksideday: Leclerc top three, Gasly top ten, Bort over Hulk, Bort over Hulk. f1capper: I mean, it's it's it's just the the recipe here, right? I will say with the with Ferrari though, I remember this last year where we were so hyped on Ferrari like This is their track, right? Like this is this is this fits them so well. And then all of a sudden they showed up and they just they were just nowhere. They absolutely couldn't be found. And I remember that from last year, and the reason why I'm bringing this up is because I think there's little replication to this year, but I'll get into that in second. They had a problem leading up to Coda with their upgrades, and they were not finding Any they weren't like maximizing the pace that they were supposed to with the upgrades that they had last year leading up to Coda, but we still kind of hyped it up, like, they'll figure it out. This is their track, right? Like they got, you know, we were just at Singapore and you know, whatever. We had some excuses for it. And it just did not work out. So fast forward to this year, there's some similarities here. they they have lacked in a way in certain in with pace. Now they are bringing some upgrades. They're bringing a new floor. They're bringing all these things that they're hoping to close the gap. But McLaren's trying to do the same thing as well. They're bringing massive upgrades for themselves. Mercedes, cream of the crop there. They're pretty, I mean, with the exception with Red Bull here recently, they're they're the best team, right? And Red Bull, I don't think, is going to bring a whole lot. They're just going to try to optimize. So will we see the same thing? Are we gonna see the same thing? We're gonna are we gonna see that we keep, you know, this is a track that Ferrari should suit, except for the long straight compared to a Mercedes power unit. I actually think they they're not there. I I for some reason in my head, I think they're gonna be the fourth, fourth best team. I actually feel like th I mean fighting with McLaren. You know, I I don't know what McLaren's gonna do on those straights, but I feel like they're gonna be. Kind of in piss. Darksideday: think so. And I saw Oscar Piastri on our alerts if you're part of the Patrick Bar saying Piastri said he doesn't think that they'll be able to fix the problems with the upgrades till the end of the season. So was like f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: they're done. f1capper: I think it's the problem with I don't know how much to read into this. Lewis Hamilton has an issue with qualifying, with getting the tires at the right optimal window. LeClaire doesn't have that issue with the qualifying setup as much as as Lewis does. And then it's switched. Most of the time Hamilton is actually he finds better pace whenever he's in higher fuel than Leclerc. So I I mean I think in some tracks it didn't really look that way, but it kind of makes sense because Lewis sometimes is not qualifying high enough and he's ending up like in dirty air and chasing and you don't really get to s see his him extract that full full pace if he if he was qualified like higher. So that's something interesting I thought. keep an open mind on but yeah Ferrari it probably still will end up being ahead of McLaren yeah Darksideday: It's still probably better than McLaren, but no one else. f1capper: yeah I think that's that's fair which kind of leads into my first play I actually I did Kimmy ham Kimmy Antonelli Kimmy Hamilton Kimmy Antonelli at a top three for the race minus one seventy five I thought that was kind of favorable I think that should have been a minus like two twenty five two fifty type of line. yeah. Darksideday: Here's around that on three six five. Let me see elsewhere. Cause it does sound quite good because I mean who else is gonna be up there? f1capper: Yeah, and one other thing that's not talked about enough, yeah, probably now it is, but is, you know, the bumps. It is if you live in Texas, you you know exactly what they're talking about. There's our ground surface sucks in Texas. And it is constantly just doesn't matter how much you resurface, within six months you'll you'll start it'll start cratering. Like some bumps will just show up. So it's very, very bumpy. That means a lot of these teams when it comes to optimizing They were more on flat surfaces, except for like Singapore, but at a high speed track with bumps, you're gonna have to raise the car. So it's gonna be harder for you to to actually like lower the car to to get it right. And then if you're throwing in the mix of, hey, I'm Ferrari, for instance, is trying to bring a new floor, how's that gonna impact them? Like are they actually gonna find more pace or is it gonna actually derail them? So that's something that you'll need to pay attention. Darksideday: What bookmaker did you get that Kimmy top three? f1capper: Well that was on Bet Online. Darksideday: I'll be online 'cause they seem to be all under all around two f minus two fifty. f1capper: It did move it did move when I Darksideday: I think on Calchi and on like if you're in the US on BEFR, if you're in the UK, I can see like minus one seventy five if you wanna take that still. f1capper: So I mean, I think that's a good price. And the and another reason why is he's had this upgrade. He had the upgrade in Malaysia, right? And you know, they kept that was like doom and gloom on hit on the upgrade. Like couldn't figure it out. Russell was using the old one. Well, guess what? For a race pace, he he cleared everyone and he ended up P2. Like it was like not even a fight for anyone. And that was at the time they were still trying to learn about those upgrades. Now we fast forward here. He they have the advantage in terms of their their power unit on the straight, energy management. And yeah, as long as they can just find the right setup for Kimmy and he's been using it for the past two races and they feel pretty confident in it. So it's Kimmy, right? I mean, you're getting an opportunity below minus two hundred to grab I think it's that's worth your time at w minus one seventy five. So Darksideday: Shall I tell you the one I got went for? When I went for. Well, I made a bit of f1capper: Yes, please enlighten me. Darksideday: I I made a bit of mistake. Because I f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: didn't look at top six. But officially I've tipped Red Bull double top six at plus one twenty-five. But really, f1capper: Okay. Darksideday: what you should take is hijar top six plus one ten. And if McLaren are out the way, that's six nearly. f1capper: Top six plus one ten? Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: Where's that? Darksideday: And Red Bull were doing quite well nearly everywhere. f1capper: Where you getting plus 110? It shouldn't even be plus 110 for that. Darksideday: Nearly everywhere. f1capper: Really? Wow. Darksideday: Apart from on three six five, which have got him actually pro probably a proper price, minus like one fifty, the rest are plus odds. And you're clarinet of the way. Probably one for f1capper: Yeah, all mine it mine is Darksideday: yeah, that's it. f1capper: minus 155 for Hajjar. And actually this is interesting. Bet US has Oscar Piastri at plus 125 for top six. But on Bet Online, he's juiced higher to Hajjar, minus one hundred seventy. That's crazy. Bet Online is taken to Shafting someone right now. Darksideday: And can be plus odds, yeah. So if you've got plus odds and they're I'm looking at odds checker, there's about eight bucks. Just take it. f1capper: Okay. I I I think that plus one ten is phenomenal. I think that's great. Darksideday: 'Cause all he to do beat the Mc the two McLaren's, which should be. If if Max is there, he looks like it he correlates with it at least a bit. You know, it's not like he's first and p Perez is like out in Q1 or whatever. And then he has just beat one Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton, he can't, you know. Look happens in Singapore, job done. f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. I don't mind that at all. I'm I'm gonna keep scouring to see if I can find Darksideday: Have you looked on Giraffe Kings? f1capper: not yet actually. I'm actually behind on my research. I also like when I'm at the races because I'm not like near my computer or anything, it's I feel like I handicapped just slightly different. I'm always checking my phone and I'm like, here's something. When in Rome, I'm here, I'm gonna do it. Darksideday: You're court siding, f1capper: I mean Darksideday: is that what you're telling us? f1capper: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, you're right. It's plus one hundred five, plus one hundred. What a crappy number Bet Online is giving you for that top six on Piastri. Who who's the idiot that's taking that at that price? That's what I want to know. Darksideday: I think 'cause he flipped flipped the top six in Singapore somehow, 'cause everyone DNF'd or they took back of the grid. f1capper: That's fucking terrible. That's fucking terrible. and here's another r reason to kind of c continue to reason with the Antonelli top three. His qualifying top three is minus three hundred. If he's gonna be in the top two, he's going to stay in the top two, top three. Is that's crazy. let's see what Isaac Hajar is minus Darksideday: So you telling me f1capper: one hundred sixty five for qualifying. What's that? Darksideday: So are you telling me you don't want a Bat Max plus one ten for race win? f1capper: I think not. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: You want my r you you want my you want my honest you want my o Darksideday: We said this for Singapore. We said this for Singapore. f1capper: We did, we did. I still took it, didn't I? I I I don't know what I took. I've just been so long I feel like. Darksideday: I think eventually. f1capper: okay, so I want to, obviously, just but I'm trying not to let recency bias like take over my mind here. And also, there's still part of me that's like, you know, this track is going to be a completely different element in terms of that surface. How much are the curbs and the bumps going to impact Red Bull? But I'm not trying to read too deep into that. Because it seems like they've been fine. Like they looked fine at Baku and and they look fine at you know, I don't think Malaysia was like bumpy or anything like that, but they look fine at Singapore. So I I just I'm I'm kind of cautious and I just it's because the number is almost that even. Like maybe let's see what it happens in like FP one. I'd rather see what happens in FP one, maybe FP two. Because I have a feeling in FP one, you know, we're gonna get the same old Red Bull is complaining about stuff and Max is like P six, P seven. They're just they're just tweaking, optimizing, playing around with setup. And then books overreact. They see like Russell in top three. Mercedes is going to be the team, right? Or Ferrari is in the top three and all that. So books start overreacting to that, and then you can get longer odds on Mac. So to me, I feel like you can wait. But if you're really like adamant like he's going to do it. Like that this is his weekend. Then take it. You should be taking it right now. But I th I think that there's an opportunity, I still think, after af after Friday, I would say. So what do you think? Darksideday: What I was thinking was it's a shame that we actually don't have any real Mega Max fifty unit bet caps you could wear there, but f1capper: It is actually a shame we don't have that hat or a shirt. I I Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: mean we get maybe next year. Actually there's still a chance small chance. I'm gonna just I'm gonna flirt this. There's a small chance I might go to the Vegas race. It's very we'll just put it at that for right now. so maybe I can make one and have it for that weeking. Darksideday: You know, live Apex as a as a reporter, right? Live a live Apex inside us reporting. f1capper: I will go right to the MGM sports book and say I want 50 units on max to win. And then just Darksideday: They'd be like, What? What you mean? f1capper: who is this guy? God. what else? What else? What other markets? What are the markets? Darksideday: Do you wanna take do you wanna take the George Russell podium plus f1capper: Mm. Mm Darksideday: one fifty? f1capper: mm. wait, four fifty? Darksideday: No, one fifty. f1capper: no, no. I do not. I Darksideday: What else John? f1capper: I I don't know. I think Checking some of the other things. Darksideday: The under safety cars, the under one point five safety cars that was like minus one twenty last race at Singapore's and now minus five hundred, so that's been nerfed. f1capper: Mm-hmm. Give me one second. Alright. I had to let my dog out. Darksideday: Well, but behind the scenes of Apex Insight. The bloopers. The bloopers. f1capper: Yeah. The bloopers telling my dog, get the hell outta here. Get the hell out of my room. Darksideday: You know what? For some reason three six five must have fallen on his head, he's got raised head to heads up. f1capper: Three sixty five does? Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: Well normally when it comes to the US G Ps or Miami or Vegas, they they try to put everything up pretty pretty early. Darksideday: It must be because of that, because it doesn't usually do that. f1capper: I mean it's all the same shit though. I kinda like Ollie Berriman, but I'm not gonna pay minus one seventy five. Darksideday: I'll say one thing that is very close to being back of all, which is Orlando over Piastri at minus one eighty, nearly. Because where's PS three gonna be? P eight. f1capper: That might be a good minus which I actually do like Lando over Piastri, right? That should that's minus one seventy five. Darksideday: yeah. Minus one seventy five, yeah. f1capper: Let's let's see. What is he? Yeah, that's actually a pretty good prize, man. Darksideday: And if you do if you add it and all you gotta do is add a bit of Max Versteppen over her jar. Easy. f1capper: Yeah. The Holkenberg Gabe. That's just too much on Hulk, man. Minus one sixty. That's too much. Well on Darksideday: Is it well minus one sixty? I thought it was the other way around. f1capper: No. On Bet 365, minus one sixty three. That's just too much. Like when we look back at Yeah, I think he's been performing a little bit better at certain Tracks here recently, but I'm pretty sure I'm gonna look this up. Give me one second, but they I mean the odds should be what they've been all season. He should be anywhere between even money and minus 130 in the same way with Bort. Even money, minus 130. Like, just depends. You gotta take it by the free practice sessions Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: to see what are where who's who's doing better. I know Hulk had a pretty good weekend last weekend except for the sprint. But it's also like we're getting three practice sessions now. And one thing about Gabe is when you give him time, he will he'll find that setup. And we've seen it a number of times. He just shows up during qualifying, except for here recently. Let's see. Let's pull up a comparison. In qualifying head to head Bordoletto i barely squeaks by. He's had nine beats over Hulkenberg. Holkenberg has had eight. It's pretty even. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: In race form, Holkenberg is now at eight. Bort is at seven on the head to head matchups. It's pretty even. Let's go to sprint qualifying. They're both tied. Three to three. In sprint. I mean Bort just mops him actually. He's four to one. So I think that that's a dumb number. Take Bort at plus one one twenty at this point. I mean it probably Darksideday: Sorry. f1capper: probably goes. If he if he does shitty it's it's maybe gets to one plus one fifty. I mean, I don't see it going any further than. Darksideday: And if he wins if he and if he beats Hulken if he won it goes all the way down. f1capper: it's gonna f it's it's gonna flip the other way. It's gonna flip the other. And that's just what's happened with that matchup. That matchup all year, I mean, obviously that's one that has followed closely. I mean, they've they've been pretty close in terms of how they've priced it a minus one thirty to, you know, even money on either side, depending on who's in better form. But that's where it should be. It should be in that range, that minus one thirty to even money range between both sides. So yeah. I mean I think especially in a weekend like this where you get three f free practice sessions too, I mean you're giving Gabe an opportunity to even test out his you know, his his setup even even more. So Darksideday: So probably correctly, but total classified drivers has been nerfed. Used to get evens around eighteen and a half, it's now nineteen and a half. I don't really want to take that. Two drivers to DNF. These cars are breaking down all the time. f1capper: I struggle a little bit with this 'cause this I think will bring volatility. But also, I mean it's not gonna be super hot. It's not supposed to be super humid too. But there's still gonna it's still gonna be pretty, you know, toasty if the if it is sunny. So I wonder how that's gonna impact, you know, a team like Audi, for instance. That has reliability issues with their engines. So I don't know. I don't know how I feel about the classifieds to be honest with you. I mean Darksideday: Yeah, I think that's a skip for me for now. f1capper: Yeah, and you know, turn one can turn into fucking chaos. I cursed. Dang, man. We should have a cursed jar for me. yeah, I don't know. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: Let's see Lawson's juiced. Gimme one. No, no, give me one. Darksideday: I found I found one gone. Okay. So I don't know where I stand on this, but most team points. Mercedes, Evans, Red Bull plus 150, and then Ferrari plus four fifty. I'll say if you win a race, haven't looked at this market before, it's very hard to lose a team market. But if you're second or third I think you can lose it. And hijab will probably be around fifth s if you think hijab's around fifth and sixth then you take Red Bull with Max winning it. f1capper: How much is it again? What's the price? Darksideday: So Mercedes Evens and then Red Bull plus one fifty. f1capper: So you're saying take Red Bull or no, take f Mer Mercedes? Darksideday: I've gotta I've gotta look this up. I dunno I dunno to be honest. I know if you win a race, you have to be like fifth or sixth. f1capper: You're also ch you're also ch I don't I couldn't do I couldn't do Mercedes because you have to trust that Russell is going to find it and be there in third. Like Kimmy Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: and and and and Russ will have to be in the top three for sure. Darksideday: I only know this because last week I did not last week, last race weekend I did. Ferrari missed team points and Lewis Hamilton was just falling and falling and falling. f1capper: that's stupid strategy call. That was just painful to watch. Darksideday: And then they w they were tied they were tied with Red Ball in the end. f1capper: Painful to watch. Darksideday: Okay, let's go through other markets. I'm gonna try and look which what I thought I think. f1capper: I'm try yeah, I'm looking I'm looking at some others too. Double top ten finishes, not really feeling it. I kinda wanna do something with Haas though. I don't know what I'm expecting from Haas. Probably not much. I'm not. I'm actually I'm not really seeing a whole lot. There's really not. Not a whole lot. Darksideday: Even though they've probably got the most markets up. f1capper: What is s what is C someone someone's already listening to is someone like live listening to us while we're doing this? no. I clicked on qualifying matchup. I was like the number moved on this one. Okay. Darksideday: Which one? f1capper: I was just looking at Bort Borton Hulk. Cause I'm just look there's not really a whole lot on Bet 360 or not Bet Bet Online. Bet three sixty five has a lot. Darksideday: What about what about a favourite market? Last f1capper: What's that? Darksideday: classified finisher. f1capper: Gotta be stroll, right? Darksideday: I don't think so. It just f1capper: Who do have in mind? Darksideday: he retires too quickly. f1capper: Yeah, he does. who do you have in mind? Al Bun. Darksideday: Well, you can nearly you can nearly Dutch Botas and Peres for like minus one thirty either way. I don't wanna take that though. f1capper: And you know they they they wanna finish this damn race too. That's true. They they Darksideday: it's true, it's true. I didn't think of that. f1capper: they would they want to finish this because it's in frickin' Texas. Not that Cadillac has anything to do with Texas, but it's America. It's American built car. Darksideday: think that car that takes him from wherever the podium is. no, to the podium is gonna be a Cadillac, maybe. f1capper: Car that takes man, that would be so sick if it was a like a 1967 like Cadillac Deville with the long horn just stretching out in the front of the hood. white. Was Darksideday: No yeah. f1capper: the the classic Dukes of Hazard type of style. I would love I would love that. Maybe they should just you know what, why why do that? Just put on a horse and carriage. Darksideday: Mm. f1capper: Perhaps perhaps. Darksideday: Do you know what one market we don't we don't we don't bot on at all? And I don't f1capper: What's that? Darksideday: know why. Fastest team pit stop. Like surely there is some sort of correlation data. I'm blaming you because you like all that stuff. And some model we could do. f1capper: I do and what's funny was I left that for lights for he was the the man that had the spreadsheet, so now Darksideday: He's too busy doing stroll over Alonso. f1capper: I now you have me intrigued. I should be going back and and looking at that. That is one market you're you're absolutely right. because they where was it the well hold on. There's two there was two different types of pit stop markets, right? There was I think it was B Win MGM that does the market where it's literally Darksideday: It's in and out. f1capper: it wait in and the minute you s get into the pit. Darksideday: Yeah. To when you get out, leave it. And f1capper: And then okay. Yeah. So Darksideday: then most of the rest of them is just the changing the wheels. f1capper: That's the one that I want to focus on. Okay. Darksideday: Because this this looks like the most open market I've seen. It's like plus f1capper: U Darksideday: three thirty three and then just near enough the same. f1capper: And Perelli has that stat, right? Is it is it per no, not Pirelli. The FIA has that. Darksideday: DHL. f1capper: Fastest yeah, DHL, fastest pit stop. Can I just look back at Mm. So overall standing I mean, it's been Red Bull just running away with it. Darksideday: Have they? f1capper: Let's see. Well actually they haven't even posted Darksideday: I think it's been fairly open this this year. f1capper: this is just the fastest pit stop of the season. It was one point nine nine Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: by Racing Bulls. Racing Bulls has actually been pretty sneaky. Darksideday: And for Ari. f1capper: What's ra racing bowls? Darksideday: They are. I've come off the market. plus four hundred. f1capper: I'll look into this. I'll look to Darksideday: Okay, so this is I feel like the the time that we look into anti-post bets because we're we're quite bored this time of year anyway. You go, what can we look at? So I found without Kimmy Antonelli, so who comes second? Would you take Max at one point seven two or George Russell at two point seven five? f1capper: For which one? Darksideday: Or driver's championship without Kimmy. And let me give you the standings. Russell is seventeen points ahead of Max. I tell you what you look out for for that market. If they cancel Abu Dhabi and Qatar, then you're straight on George Russell. f1capper: Yeah. I think it's still worth taking George though. mean again like I'm just thinking about like right now Darksideday: Six races left. f1capper: Six races, maybe four. Right? Are you counting the six with Abu Dhabi and Darksideday: No, but yeah, six with all of them. f1capper: with all of them? So there could be potentially four. Darksideday: They might not even go to him there. Yeah. f1capper: They're still considering that. That's Darksideday: It keeps being said, but surely they need like an amount of time to put it all together. f1capper: Yeah, I mean I don't think that's I don't think that's happening. I'm still taking Russ. Big Russ. I don't like it, but Darksideday: No. f1capper: the number is actually pretty pretty solid for him being ahead and there's still part of me that thinks that, you know, Red Bull is done really well here there, but they've you know, maybe there's some fortunate situations too for them to to be where they're at. So after this we go to Mexico. They probably will win there. That's another thing. I guess that might change things a little bit. We'll see. Darksideday: Does that still count without Honda engines anymore? I don't know. Wasn't that their advantage? No. f1capper: Actually we don't know. Well d we don't know technically with Ford. For me, I I was I like to knock on Ford and say this that shit's Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: breaking down. So yeah, I don't know. We'll have to look back at what the Austria with the highest elevation, most recent race and like how they did. I mean completely different. And then after Mexico it's Brazil. There's a little bit of elevation, but that should be a good track for them. But I feel like that could be a good track for for McLaren too, even. Even though that long straight, man, that's gonna kill them. It's crazy how how they've gone backwards. Yeah, I guess I guess so. Darksideday: I've got one more, I've got one more, I've got one more for you. So the only interesting season long head to head left is our favourite driver on the grid, Charles Leclerc versus Lewis Hamilton. And the Claire's fourteen points behind. It's like minus ten, minus one two five. f1capper: Man, I'm too biased. I'm gonna say take Lewis. Take Lewis. I think you do. There's there's Leclerc Darksideday: I think so. With Brazil especially. And Leclerc just can't do Brazil. f1capper: Leclerc has just not been consistent like he's normally been. He's been e like inconsistent through a race weekend. Like he he's been it's been hard for us even to gauge what do we think of Leclerc this weekend. comes in maybe does well in FP one, does crappy in FP two and three, but then somehow outqualifies Lewis Hamilton and or it's vice versa. He's doing you know solid, crappy qualifying, can't do anything in the race. Like it's just it's so hard to gauge that man. And you can tell he's struggling in that car. While on the other end, Lewis Hamilton actually hasn't b he's he seems more consistent than he's ever been in the past like two or three years even at Mercedes, but doesn't mean he's he's had a his his his fair share of worse times too, like rears its ugly head. Darksideday: Looking at this drivers championship, I I feel like you could say this every year, but without Kimmy, it'd be like the most competitive one going since like twenty twelve. It'd be like one, two, three, four, five drivers winning thirty points ish of each other. f1capper: Well imagine if Kimmy didn't win what, two or three races? This would have been Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: like wide open for any for a lot of the drivers versus Darksideday: Alright, I just figured out there's constructor head to heads as well, but yeah, gone. f1capper: No, no, that's I mean, I'm just it's actually been very competitive from the top teams and even the midfield guys, too. Like, I I will I will admit, this season has been terrible from like my eyes and ears hate the sound of these cars and they kind of just suck. But it's actually been pretty Pretty competitive to watch. I mean, it's been actually pretty interesting at times to watch. I couldn't say like there's been some boring ass tracks, of course, but that's expected. So I it's been quite entertaining from that standpoint if you could just kinda Just get get by the fact that these these engines are just terrible. So yeah. Darksideday: So I think I found one actually do like, which is I'm surprised as this price, it is a bit of a a chalk, but Red Bull to beat McLaren and the constructors, minus two hundred, and they are seven points behind. I mean it'll be over it should be ahead by this weekend. f1capper: If they continue to if they're really saying this is going to be a persistent issue between now and the end of the year, absolutely. You still have Vegas too, that they're just gonna be nowhere at in Vegas. Like Darksideday: yeah. f1capper: they're not gonna be anywhere. So that's already one you can give to the to to Red Bull. So Darksideday: If Qatar goes ahead, you got Oscar Papiastri's only track where he's half decent at. f1capper: Yeah, I mean that's the probably I mean, I I still think they could do okay at Interlagos in Brazil. But they're still Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: gonna have there's I don't know how you can keep up with like Max if they have if they're like that's consistent real what we've been seeing for the past two races. Darksideday: Like in Max's podium he doesn't even have to win every race if he's like near the front and McLaren f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Darksideday: are like fifth and sixth or fourth or whatever. It's over. I might I might tip that up because I like that. I didn't look that before. One other one that's interesting. f1capper: Well look at that. We're not even tipping Coda, we're just tipping the season. There's not there's nothing. There's nothing. Darksideday: Well this this is it. There's not there's not there's nothing left. f1capper: I will say I I am I just saw Bet Online had Max Rersappin plus one twenty five. Darksideday: No. It's still there's no difference to like plus one to all right. f1capper: There's no difference. Yeah, I know, I know. Like he I still I still I I know I'm gonna hate myself because I'm gonna be like, he's you know, three f free practice sessions, we're gonna see them, you know, like he's they're gonna be just taking it easy and then next thing you know, he's just going to blow it up. Darksideday: So absolutely final one before we go on and on and on about random bets f1capper: Uh-huh. Darksideday: is Audiova Hass. Haas are like minus nearly minus two hundred and Audi are plus one thirty-eight and has somehow seven points ahead. f1capper: Are they really? Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: Wha what happened? Yeah, Darksideday: I mean, how did that happen? f1capper: what when I guess I had not been paying attention too much to that part of the standing. Darksideday: I d I don't know how they flute that. I don't know how they flute that. they got eleven f1capper: That's crazy. Darksideday: points it was the start of the season. They got six points in China, f1capper: Mm Darksideday: eleven in six sorry, eleven in China, six in Australia, six in Baku, three in Singapore, just here and there. And I guess Aud f1capper: Okay, so then Darksideday: I guess when Audi were competitive at the start of the season, they were just breaking down all the time. f1capper: Yeah, they were. They were. And they lost points that way. That's right. I thought they just caught up because for it seemed like a while there. Haas felt dead. They it seemed like they were just gonna be in mud the rest of the season, although they've had kinda picked it up after Mad Ring. so how many points Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: does Audi need to close that gap? Darksideday: Well, I don't know what happens in a tie. I don't know who's got the most, but they're seven points ahead. yeah. Seven points behind Dowdy. f1capper: That's tough with only like six races left. Could be four. I don't y yeah, like I could Darksideday: You need like a wet race where everyone DNS and they fluke it. f1capper: s I I don't I I mean, we already know Vegas, they're gonna be out outnumbered by Haas there. So that's three races. So the Darksideday: And they can barely get in the points as it's there. Like one point would be fantastic. f1capper: Yeah, you you know, this is this is the race where you would tip you would just you would take like the next two races just bet against Haas or for Haas if you want Haas or vice v if you want Audi. I don't know. I don't like those odds anymore now that I think about it, Darksideday: No. f1capper: on either side. Darksideday: I like the Red Bull one over McLaren. I I I do like that one. f1capper: I could see that. Especially if they if they're if that's real that they're not they're gonna continue to struggle. Darksideday: What's this doubting as a max won like two races in a row? He's on a roll. f1capper: He is, he is, replied. Darksideday: Some with bumps, some without bumps. f1capper: But I I don't know. Maybe maybe Kimmy brings it back to this weekend. This is this is w Well that's what I wanted Darksideday: Three races and a no, no, sorry. I clicked on barrain, but yeah, go on. I forgot it was in yeah. f1capper: that's what I meant to bring up with you is sh are we just overlooking Kimmy while we have a chance? I mean I know I'm not gonna do it right now and I think that like FP one typically he likes to play around with his his setup same But are we overlooking that? Like should we be thinking like, hey, you know what? Like he might have something. I know they talked about the car, it's looked bad. Darksideday: I don't think so. f1capper: But the engineers seem very confident now. They're like, I think we you know thanks to him, he was testing the the everything through different types of different types of speeds and he seemed confident, like, yep, we fe we find we feel that we know what we're what we're supposed to go to move forward with this upgrade. Darksideday: Yeah, if we're saying that Max is too short, you back hit me. But I did see yeah, f1capper: Then Kimmy. didn't you back Cammy and Ki yeah. Darksideday: you back hit me. And then I saw today they were saying that they're putting Russell back onto the upgrade because like what's the point not to and then they can just work through the data together. So I don't know if they've completely correct the code. f1capper: I think they have. Like there was a reason wh Darksideday: But it's Mercedes. f1capper: Kimmy stuck to the upgrades for a reason, right? They they weren't they weren't going to abandon. Yeah. Like Darksideday: And in Singapore at the end. Yeah. f1capper: they said we're gonna continue to do this and we're gonna do it at this this stupid track. On a street circuit, and he did fine. I mean, not to say he was like blazing speed or anything, but he did fine. You know, I think that he's maybe man. I don't know. Darksideday: Look, even if he qualifies P two You're probably at worst like the same price. f1capper: Well, let's just put this in perspective again. The qualifying top three, he has the second shortest odds, right? Like he's that's where he's he's they're projecting he's gonna be P two, put it that way. So let's go see what qualifying top three. Let's see if there's a qualifying top three. Yes. I mean, everywhere that has a top three, which is really only two places that I'm seeing right now, actually Bet 365 does, they're all pretty they're short. They're short as hell. There's only two drivers on the grid right now that have you've gotta pay the juice for that top three. And that's Kimmy and Max. Everyone else is plus odds. So why aren't we taking Kimmy at like can we find a three to one? If there is there three to one? Darksideday: I don't think so. f1capper: There isn't. Mm mm. Actually Cal she might. Hell she might have it. I mean I feel like that's what we should be doing, but it's Max. I'm scared. Darksideday: Ha ha ha. f1capper: I'm scared. The shark. He's Darksideday: He is three to one on ca on Bifre Exchange for the race win. f1capper: Just feels right. I feel like we should be. I don't know. It is kinda tough because you were like this they look they didn't look like the same the same team. Darksideday: We'll wait till F f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: P one and then just back to our odds. f1capper: Ye yeah, yes, yes, yes, yes. Okay, so we'll keep moving along. What other mar is there any other market? I I I don't we there's really not much. Darksideday: I have exhausted them all, I think it's fair to say. f1capper: Okay. Wait, let's recap it. Last classified finishers. You said Dutch, Botas, and Perez. They have Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: to finish, right? They're gonna probably be the worst. I kind of Darksideday: Har top six. f1capper: a jar top six. There's some places at plus one ten, as you said. I think the best I saw was DraftKings at plus one five. If you can find. Kimmy top three minus 175. I don't know if that's going to be anywhere, but it is still available at minus 190 on betonline. So a little bit more juice if you really want to get cute with it. we don't care for Max's odds, which is surprising for us to say at plus 110, plus 125. Just feels like you can get, you can, you're better off taking the risk of just seeing how at free practice works its way out. Maybe he gets to a minus one ten or something. Maybe something happens in qualifying and he qualifies P two. Who knows? I don't know. But that's I kind of feel that's the best way to play that anyways. But if you are high on Max, you should take him now. Like don't even question it. And I'm not gonna even say that's a bad bet. I don't think anyone would argue that unless he qualifies P three and then we'll we'll slander you. And then we're flirting with We should probably be taking Kimmy at these longer odds at this point. We'll keep we'll keep an eye out on that one. Don't care Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: for classified markets. I don't think it's worth your time. I don't know what to expect this weekend when it comes to the classified. And then what else? Yeah, I I mean, we'll get into the Discord. I'll be on track. I will maybe try to live stream. I don't know. We'll see. We'll see how that works. Darksideday: You'll get down taken down by Liberty Media. There'll be no more Apex insiders. f1capper: Probably. I mean I got I got Riverside on my I can I got Riverside on my phone. I could just do it directly. I could do everything. Do what I want. I'm in Texas. Come and take it. So wait, we forgot to do one last thing. bad beat. Darksideday: Bad beat of the week. f1capper: Yes. Let's go back to the card. It feels like it's been forever since I touched this thing. Bad beat of the week. this should be a slam dunk. Let me just make sure. This one is a slam dunk. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: Lewis Hamilton over Kimmy Antonelli. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: For the race. I d I don't think I have to say anything else. He the guy had the pace, just Ferrari being Ferrari. I still think he would have be Darksideday: He was told to come in, he was told to come in, allegedly. f1capper: He would've he would have beat him. He would have beat him. But you know, this is this is what we we end up with. Well w what did you Darksideday: Yeah, that's Ferrari's strategy. All they had to do was leave him on the ties longer. No one was getting past him anyway. I mean what were they thinking? yeah, we'd just go forty laps on softs, it'd be fine. f1capper: Well see, that that's what's that's what pisses me off about Ferrari is they keep ha the Darksideday: Forget the VSE, but yeah, go on. f1capper: they keep going with these these these guys that are just like, Well, what do you want to do? Well what what the fuck? You you're the one that's supposed to be like two steps ahead of me and then I'm supposed to relay the information to you and you tell me here are your options. We do this, you're faster here, you this. It seems like they're just I don't know, sitting around with a glass of wine and and eating eating some cheese. Darksideday: Also, they blocked they blocked Hamilton, they pitted Leclerc right in front of Hamilton when Hamilton had like faster tires, they're like, No, no, you're gonna stay behind. f1capper: Yes. It's like, are you guys for real right now? Like this this is it's incredible because I mean all I feel bad for all Ferrari fans. I really do. I feel for you guys. And it really I don't as a Dallas Cowboys fan, I know exactly how this feels. Like you're just like they can't get any dumber, right? And then next thing you know, you watch again and you're like, my god. They're still doing the same dumb mistakes. And it's just over and over and over. It's been through multiple regulations. It's been through multiple team principles. It's just incredible it keeps happening. Darksideday: It's ever since Apex Insider's created and before that. f1capper: Well, it was still kinda bad. I mean it was okay. Darksideday: It was like ever since like it's probably the Leclerc veto era it started and they're just all from there. f1capper: It's inc it's incredible that they keep doing this. It's yeah, I f I feel for you guys. But that one is the bad beat of the week, hands down. But I will give a nomination to you d okay, okay, okay. Let's let's see. Darksideday: Well, you gotta let me do my one in case So I think it was last race weekend, but then we all have Baugh in the group and he was like way ahead of everyone and he had a bad start and then he got a ten second penalty. you told me to bloody f1capper: I did not have that one. Was that last race? Darksideday: do it, yeah. I think so. f1capper: Who would do that? I would never do that. Wasn't that no, that was that was Malaysia, I think, right? I wasn't Malaysia. Darksideday: I was like easy. was it? Was it Malaysia? f1capper: I think so. I may I could be wrong. But that's still a bad beat. We'll call it as a bad beat. It's been a while. So yes, so the group Darksideday: Alright, what was your nomination? Let's go for that. f1capper: was, I think it was w minus 120, 1.83 or something like that, right? And then Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: it was against Albon signs. in Ocon. I think that's the Darksideday: That was it. f1capper: man, I'm I got a sharp memory right now. Look at me. Look at me. I'm on it. Dude, that was a brutal one. I'm sorry. Darksideday: I'll give I'll give shout out for some bad beats of the week, which was the spring, I think. Jinx had Piastri top six sprint qualifying in sprint and it was just that it was there and just just Norris decided to just send it and that was lost. f1capper: Just I didn't watch I still haven't watched the sprint race from Singapore. I I slept through that thing. Darksideday: You need to watch it. It just I don't even know what happened. It's just the most eventful sprint race ever. f1capper: I'll I'll watch it I'll watch it tonight. I'll watch it tonight. I'll watch it. I still literally did not I had not taken the time to watch that thing. I've not. But now I kinda intrigued by what she said. Darksideday: And George Russell just I don't know what he was doing. He was about to win the whole thing and then just crashed. f1capper: why didn't we that's a that was a bad beat for us too. Darksideday: did you have that? Some people have that. f1capper: Yeah, d so okay, there's two nominations, but I think that climbs man. Okay, we gotta Darksideday: Because some had some thought Max was gonna get the penalty or something like that, wasn't it? f1capper: Okay, so Lewis Hamilton and definitely deserves to be on there, but this is the one race leader in the sprint minus 138, 1.72, and I had 2.10 units. I wanted to win like basically 150 Darksideday: Hey. f1capper: bucks on that. And that was the one. That was the one. That was one where Russ like spin spun and wrecked. Darksideday: I didn't go well. That was the one. He dropped it across the line, across the line for that one. Not even he couldn't have crashed before that. Just off he went. f1capper: So which one is worse? Lewis or that one? I feel like I think the Russell one is. Okay, so Yeah, Darksideday: I'll give you the Russell one. Yeah. I think you need to just hate watch it. f1capper: well the podi the the third place finisher I was gonna say was Hajar top six and qualifying. Literally took it and his engine just stopped working. And of course, whenever you take a top market on any book, it doesn't matter. They're gonna they're not gonna avoid it. They're just gonna s you you I just literally press the button. Yes. confirm bet and literally ten minutes later he's out of qualifying, couldn't couldn't move the car. So I just it reminds me of that Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: family guy where he's like, I like a hundred dollars on the Broncos. And he's like, Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: no, you just keep it. That's exact Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: that's exactly what happened. I was like, nah, you just keep it. no that was I like these I I like this segment. This is fun. I I I enjoy the pain, I guess, of revisiting these pa Darksideday: I can't wait till Vegas bad beat of the week. f1capper: I mean that has to be that has to be in the Hall of Fame of Bad Beats is the Perez Leclerc, for sure. It has to be. It has to be. I know. Darksideday: I was on it as well. I c w we'll wait we'll wait we'll wait till that second room. f1capper: We you got what you need to do is you need to use AI to create a video of Alan watching that moment and and reenacting what you were going through in your head. Have Alan be your inner thought. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: That would actually be pretty funny. man. Darksideday: I'm not sure I'm not sure we have all the money to make all these AI videos. f1capper: No, we don't have any money. But guys, send us some money if you want more good AI slop. Trust me, it's worth it. Worth it. Especially this weekend because we are going to cash. All right. Well, that's that's it for let's let's end the show. It was fun. I am looking forward to this weekend. And if you are gonna be attending the race, you know, message me and happy to meet up with you. So I'll be there Friday, Saturday, but I'll be leaving Sunday morning to come drive. So any last thoughts from you? Darksideday: No, no. Don't last f1capper: Nope. Darksideday: messy is just good luck. f1capper: That's good luck. Peace out. Darksideday: Yeah.