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Transcript

Going Home To Mommala · Politix

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Alternatively,
0:00
SPEAKER_00: I would like to see Joe Biden just go to Jerome Powell and be like,
0:05
SPEAKER_00: I will literally murder you unless you drop interest rates 2%.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: In this episode,
0:18
SPEAKER_00: we'll talk about some of the big picture questions facing Kamala Harris now that
0:23
SPEAKER_00: she's the presumptive Democratic nominee for president.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: So does her agenda differ meaningfully from Joe Biden's?
0:30
SPEAKER_00: Does his decision to serve out his term, will that moot lingering questions about his physical health?
0:36
SPEAKER_00: And what,
0:36
SPEAKER_00: if anything,
0:37
SPEAKER_00: can Harris do to avoid becoming just the latest Democrat to be ruined by the
0:42
SPEAKER_00: Republican gutter politics machine?
0:45
SPEAKER_00: I hope you enjoy the conversation,
0:47
SPEAKER_00: and if you want to hear the whole thing,
0:48
SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
0:51
SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: This week, big picture questions about the Kamala Harris era.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: For instance, I wrote these down.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: How many coconuts can fall on the head of a pin?
1:12
SPEAKER_00: Is a burden in the hand worth two in the bush?
1:15
SPEAKER_01: Ooh.
1:17
SPEAKER_01: Listen, I had a coconut water iced coffee yesterday.
1:20
SPEAKER_00: Wait, were those JD Vance level jokes or like sub-JD Vance?
1:25
SPEAKER_01: I don't even know, man.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: Tell me about your iced coffee.
1:28
SPEAKER_01: It was coconut water iced coffee.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: They have it at Bluestone Lane.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: It was pretty good.
1:36
SPEAKER_01: This was not a Harris gag.
1:39
SPEAKER_01: They've had this on the menu for a while, but I was inspired to try it.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: I think all of America is taking a fresh look
1:46
SPEAKER_01: at the vice president.
1:48
SPEAKER_01: Maybe some of us are realizing that even,
1:50
SPEAKER_01: like,
1:50
SPEAKER_01: as a professional political journalist,
1:52
SPEAKER_01: I maybe don't quite know as much about her as I thought I did.
1:56
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, it's an interesting moment.
2:01
SPEAKER_01: You know, we got to see beyond the memes, like, what does she actually do?
2:06
SPEAKER_00: Right.
2:06
SPEAKER_00: Matt and I were talking about, like,
2:08
SPEAKER_00: how to, how to anchor this episode.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: And,
2:11
SPEAKER_00: and the questions we want to home in on are ones that like,
2:14
SPEAKER_00: we'll touch on things that we will keep an eye on as the campaign develops.
2:18
SPEAKER_00: So these are things like, does she want to break with Biden on any big substantive issues?
2:23
SPEAKER_00: Um, and can she even do that really easily given that he, she's taking over his campaign?
2:28
SPEAKER_00: Um,
2:29
SPEAKER_00: like what is she going to do,
2:30
SPEAKER_00: um,
2:30
SPEAKER_00: about Republican lines of attack that are already starting to build?
2:35
SPEAKER_00: And and if those attacks begin to drag down her approval,
2:40
SPEAKER_00: like what is the Democratic Party going to do about that?
2:44
SPEAKER_00: So let's just go in order, I guess.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: Right.
2:46
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
2:47
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it was.
2:49
SPEAKER_01: Did you watch her her speech yesterday at campaign headquarters?
2:53
SPEAKER_01: I didn't.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I have.
2:56
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Followed the coverage, but I was not available to like watch it live, which sucked.
3:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: On the one hand, it was a good speech.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: And it was like, you're like, wow.
3:07
SPEAKER_01: It's true.
3:07
SPEAKER_01: You could just put... It wasn't an amazing piece of writing.
3:14
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
3:15
SPEAKER_01: I think...
3:16
SPEAKER_01: they had to throw it together pretty quickly.
3:19
SPEAKER_01: But it was like,
3:19
SPEAKER_01: okay,
3:19
SPEAKER_01: here's like a regular politician who is both accustomed to speaking on camera about
3:25
SPEAKER_01: politics and is of an appropriate age and can do it.
3:29
SPEAKER_01: And she's just like delivering the Democratic Party talking points about why Donald Trump is bad.
3:35
SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
3:36
SPEAKER_01: orders of magnitude better than any Biden campaign appearance.
3:40
SPEAKER_01: We had talked ourselves into these shouty teleprompter speeches.
3:45
SPEAKER_01: They're like, ah, Joe's still got it.
3:47
SPEAKER_01: But that's not true.
3:49
SPEAKER_01: It was just way better.
3:51
SPEAKER_01: But it's also strange.
3:53
SPEAKER_01: Kamala Harris's presidential campaign is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.
4:00
SPEAKER_01: And why is it headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware?
4:03
SPEAKER_01: Because that's where Joe Biden is from.
4:05
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, she comes on there and she's she's consolidated power with this like lightning strike.
4:11
SPEAKER_01: And she thanks President Biden kind of on a conference call,
4:15
SPEAKER_01: talks about how he's the most accomplished president.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: He's he's done more in one term than most presidents achieve in two,
4:22
SPEAKER_01: which,
4:22
SPEAKER_01: of course,
4:23
SPEAKER_01: like you got to be nice to the president under these circumstances.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: And then she announces that she's asked General Malley Dillon to run the campaign,
4:32
SPEAKER_01: that she's asked Julie Chavez Rodriguez to continue in her role.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: And so it's like they've taken the Biden-Harris signs down.
4:40
SPEAKER_01: They very quickly put these Harris signs up.
4:44
SPEAKER_01: But it's like a smooth transfer of power of the sort you would want to see if the
4:51
SPEAKER_01: president of the United States had died.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
4:55
SPEAKER_01: To be like, it's simple, plug and play, here we are, we're still going.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: On some level, that's good, right?
5:01
SPEAKER_01: It's like you don't want a campaign mired in chaos or something like that.
5:05
SPEAKER_01: But it does just remind us of the reality that four weeks ago, Biden was losing this race.
5:14
SPEAKER_01: right?
5:15
SPEAKER_01: It's not just like our three weeks of crisis since the debate,
5:18
SPEAKER_01: but before the debate,
5:21
SPEAKER_01: Biden was losing and he was looking forward to the debate as an opportunity to
5:26
SPEAKER_01: change the race.
5:28
SPEAKER_01: And so now it's like, what's the plan to win?
5:34
SPEAKER_01: I'm not mad that she didn't roll out
5:39
SPEAKER_01: 17 changes yesterday at an event at campaign headquarters.
5:44
SPEAKER_01: But it was just very literally,
5:47
SPEAKER_01: I got the same headquarters,
5:48
SPEAKER_01: I've got the same campaign team,
5:51
SPEAKER_01: I praise the administration that I've been in.
5:55
SPEAKER_01: And it's like, the policies of the Biden administration are not popular.
6:00
SPEAKER_01: Joe Biden is not popular.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: The campaign strategy that they've been running with Biden was not working.
6:09
SPEAKER_01: Every Democrat I know loves the like, I'm a prosecutor, he's a felon, you know, hits.
6:16
SPEAKER_01: But the basic issue Democrats have been wrestling with since Trump locked up the
6:21
SPEAKER_01: nomination is like,
6:22
SPEAKER_01: Trump's approval rating is underwater.
6:25
SPEAKER_01: If you could get everyone who says Trump is bad to vote for Harris, she will win the election.
6:33
SPEAKER_01: But her approval rating is also underwater.
6:37
SPEAKER_01: And it seems like she should say something to make people who don't like her
6:44
SPEAKER_01: like her better.
6:46
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, we're just like, I'm waiting to see what that is, like what she will try.
6:51
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
6:51
SPEAKER_00: so you started that by talking about the night and day difference between how her
6:55
SPEAKER_00: campaign will appear to people who tune into campaign coverage or campaign rallies
7:02
SPEAKER_00: and how Biden's is.
7:03
SPEAKER_00: And then you said Biden was losing the race, right?
7:07
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
7:07
SPEAKER_00: That seems like a big change.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: If he's down,
7:09
SPEAKER_00: too,
7:09
SPEAKER_00: and you swap out somebody who doesn't change anything else,
7:14
SPEAKER_00: but that they're charismatic,
7:16
SPEAKER_00: they're younger,
7:17
SPEAKER_00: and they're good at delivering attack lines,
7:20
SPEAKER_00: that that
7:22
SPEAKER_00: is a big deal, not a small deal.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I hope so.
7:25
SPEAKER_00: Like if he was down 10 and she was able to make up five by dint of being like a
7:31
SPEAKER_00: better campaigner than he is,
7:33
SPEAKER_00: that's not good enough.
7:34
SPEAKER_00: But if he's down two and she can improve by five, then she probably wins.
7:39
SPEAKER_00: Um,
7:40
SPEAKER_00: But I like I will take,
7:43
SPEAKER_00: you know,
7:43
SPEAKER_00: just for the spirit of the conversation,
7:45
SPEAKER_00: like I agree if it seems like the dust settles,
7:49
SPEAKER_00: everyone's used to the idea that the race is now Trump versus Harris rather than
7:53
SPEAKER_00: Trump versus Biden.
7:55
SPEAKER_00: And she's still down one up one like not doesn't have a safe lead, maybe has like a small deficit.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: Then it's like, OK, we do need to change something else and we can't just go grab a third nominee.
8:08
SPEAKER_00: Right.
8:09
SPEAKER_00: Um,
8:10
SPEAKER_00: and so I feel like the,
8:16
SPEAKER_00: that it's just hard for me to be like,
8:18
SPEAKER_00: think in my head,
8:19
SPEAKER_00: what are some knobs they can turn on policy that are going to be able to have that
8:27
SPEAKER_00: kind of impact?
8:27
SPEAKER_00: Cause I just, I don't.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: know that that's how things, like you say, like Biden's policies are unpopular.
8:37
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, there's lots of them.
8:38
SPEAKER_00: So some of them surely are, but like the bills he passed were pretty popular.
8:42
SPEAKER_00: And like,
8:43
SPEAKER_00: well,
8:44
SPEAKER_00: and the conditions that they created in the country are ones that I think most
8:47
SPEAKER_00: presidents would want to run for reelection.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: I think that this is the problem.
8:50
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: If you go inside the Democratic tent,
8:55
SPEAKER_01: There's this incredible enthusiasm for the Biden record, right?
9:00
SPEAKER_01: And for Biden's efficacy.
9:01
SPEAKER_01: And what it's based on,
9:02
SPEAKER_01: because,
9:03
SPEAKER_01: you know,
9:05
SPEAKER_01: people,
9:05
SPEAKER_01: anytime I start talking about policy,
9:07
SPEAKER_01: people are like,
9:07
SPEAKER_01: nobody cares about policy.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: And I agree on some level.
9:10
SPEAKER_01: Like all the progressives and liberals who love Joe Biden and say he's the most
9:15
SPEAKER_01: accomplished president of all time,
9:16
SPEAKER_01: like they also don't care about policy just in the way that swing voters don't care
9:20
SPEAKER_01: about policy.
9:21
SPEAKER_01: But there's a vibe around Biden,
9:24
SPEAKER_01: like a positive vibe among progressives that he's done all this stuff,
9:30
SPEAKER_01: sweeping progressive change,
9:32
SPEAKER_01: something like that.
9:33
SPEAKER_01: And that's just not the vibe that everybody wants, that everybody wants to hear.
9:41
SPEAKER_01: So what can Harris do?
9:42
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
9:44
SPEAKER_01: But there's some really low effort stuff that she could do.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: But it might backfire.
9:50
SPEAKER_01: Like,
9:51
SPEAKER_01: I think that Harris should put out there that somebody will ask her at some point,
9:57
SPEAKER_01: what are you going to do with the cabinet?
10:01
SPEAKER_01: And she should say, there's a lot of great people in the cabinet.
10:05
SPEAKER_01: I'm hoping a lot of them will stick around for the second term.
10:08
SPEAKER_01: I know some people are going to want to step down.
10:10
SPEAKER_01: I know I'm going to want to make some changes.
10:12
SPEAKER_01: I'm hoping to maybe get a few more Republicans and some business people in there for a new term.
10:18
SPEAKER_01: That's not like a formal commitment to anything, but a bunch of people will say, oh, that's good.
10:26
SPEAKER_01: That's nice.
10:26
SPEAKER_01: That's nice to hear.
10:29
SPEAKER_01: She could write a platform as if she was running for an open seat.
10:37
SPEAKER_01: She could be like, here's the Kamala Harris priorities for America.
10:42
SPEAKER_01: Biden has committed himself via his presidential budget request to like $6 trillion
10:49
SPEAKER_01: in tax increases to finance,
10:52
SPEAKER_01: I think,
10:52
SPEAKER_01: $4 trillion of spending plus some deficit reduction.
10:55
SPEAKER_01: And he has no campaign policy agenda.
11:01
SPEAKER_01: Harris,
11:01
SPEAKER_01: because she's not the president,
11:03
SPEAKER_01: because that's not her budget submission,
11:05
SPEAKER_01: can just write something down that's shorter.
11:08
SPEAKER_01: You know, and just be like, I want deficit reduction.
11:12
SPEAKER_01: I want paid leave.
11:14
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I want whatever, like restore Roe v. Wade.
11:20
SPEAKER_01: you know, just like act like a candidate, you know, just like shake the etch-a-sketch a little bit.
11:26
SPEAKER_01: I think that a lot of mainstream Democrats look at the political success of
11:32
SPEAKER_01: somebody like Josh Shapiro,
11:33
SPEAKER_01: somebody like Richard Whitmer,
11:35
SPEAKER_01: who they think of as like mainstream Democrats who aren't like bad hippie punchers
11:41
SPEAKER_01: like Iglesias.
11:42
SPEAKER_01: And they're like, see, that just shows we can go.
11:44
SPEAKER_01: But like those people don't,
11:47
SPEAKER_01: advocate for these like multi-trillion dollar change-ups of things.
11:52
SPEAKER_01: They have these like much more modest kind of gubernatorial type agendas.
11:56
SPEAKER_01: And I think Harris just like has a chance because she's new to just like cut down what Harrisism is.
12:07
SPEAKER_01: But if she doesn't, right, if she just hangs her hat on, I'm a prosecutor, he's a felon,
12:15
SPEAKER_01: problem is that in the primary she took all these positions that were to the left
12:20
SPEAKER_01: of biden's you know so like when somebody says like in pennsylvania um you promised
12:27
SPEAKER_01: to ban fracking nationwide uh she has to she's got to have some answer to that well
12:36
SPEAKER_00: okay i don't right like i don't yeah i don't i don't look i i i think that part of
12:40
SPEAKER_00: the um
12:42
SPEAKER_00: The difficulty of this question for us as podcast hosts is that the Biden
12:48
SPEAKER_00: campaign's policy platform for 2024 wasn't really,
12:52
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
12:53
SPEAKER_00: we could divine it because he has a presidential budget request and we know what he
12:57
SPEAKER_00: wanted to get done in what was the Build Back Better Act that got cut out.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: He talks about reviving those things.
13:02
SPEAKER_00: And so it's not like we were flying totally blind,
13:05
SPEAKER_00: but it's not like there's also like a multi-hundred page.
13:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
13:10
SPEAKER_00: book of where harris can go in and make edits um and like i what i hear you saying
13:17
SPEAKER_00: is that she should find true rhetorical ways to signal to people who are trying to
13:24
SPEAKER_00: decide whether they can get on board with her because they don't really like trump
13:28
SPEAKER_00: that she is like not
13:32
SPEAKER_00: california progressive anymore she is now the like and and like that creates like
13:39
SPEAKER_00: that's i feel like fairly easy to do so long as she's not out there stridently
13:45
SPEAKER_00: advocating for like go like i would not think it was a good idea for kamala harris
13:52
SPEAKER_00: kamala do it right kamala harris jesus christ i'm just struggling man kamala harris
13:57
SPEAKER_01: you're gonna be canceled in the in the harris era you have no
14:03
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: I promise to do better.
14:06
SPEAKER_01: Do the work, Brian.
14:13
SPEAKER_00: She should not go to Michigan,
14:14
SPEAKER_00: Wisconsin,
14:15
SPEAKER_00: Pennsylvania and talk about how she can't wait to raise all these taxes to finance
14:19
SPEAKER_00: all these new programs.
14:20
SPEAKER_00: And it's going to be like even more sweeping change than we had under the great
14:24
SPEAKER_00: change sweeper,
14:25
SPEAKER_00: Joe Biden.
14:27
SPEAKER_00: But like,
14:28
SPEAKER_00: I don't want the campaign that she's running to get tripped up into like,
14:34
SPEAKER_00: like the way Joe Biden kind of got tripped up in the debate over like,
14:36
SPEAKER_00: let,
14:37
SPEAKER_00: let me make my mastery of policy minutia and my understanding of how all these
14:42
SPEAKER_00: programs work become the thing that makes it impossible for me to communicate in
14:47
SPEAKER_00: bigger picture ways.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: Right.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: Like, Hey, I don't think that that's how politics works.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: But be like, like,
14:55
SPEAKER_00: I think like Obama, she should travel to those places and just be normal.
14:59
SPEAKER_00: I think what you were saying is she should try to disarm people who might be
15:04
SPEAKER_00: anxious about the idea of her becoming president and that they should feel listened
15:08
SPEAKER_00: to by her and so on.
15:10
SPEAKER_00: And I also think that like Obama,
15:11
SPEAKER_00: she should go to the convention and deliver a speech with all kinds of like
15:17
SPEAKER_00: patriotic unifying homilies.
15:20
SPEAKER_00: But I think that the main thing Obama benefited from was the Obama zeitgeist.
15:24
SPEAKER_00: And like,
15:25
SPEAKER_00: yes,
15:25
SPEAKER_00: he will talk about how he went to Lions Clubs or whatever in Iowa when he was
15:30
SPEAKER_00: running for the nomination.
15:32
SPEAKER_00: And, you know, he he he was like a very good code switcher.
15:36
SPEAKER_00: And he he like they found in him somebody that they thought was like different from
15:40
SPEAKER_00: their the stereotypes they had in their head about black Democrats,
15:43
SPEAKER_00: basically.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: And I'm I'm not saying that that stuff wasn't important,
15:47
SPEAKER_00: but like there was also a Republican campaign at the time that had real ammunition
15:53
SPEAKER_00: to work with to make people think that,
15:55
SPEAKER_00: no,
15:55
SPEAKER_00: the Obama who's presenting himself to you is this like smooth and also like
16:01
SPEAKER_00: moderate figure is secretly much more left wing than he's letting on.
16:05
SPEAKER_00: Right.
16:05
SPEAKER_00: Like and then Obama went to Ohio.
16:08
SPEAKER_00: And he told Joe the plumber,
16:10
SPEAKER_00: who I believe died recently,
16:13
SPEAKER_00: that he wanted to take some of his money and move it around to poor people.
16:17
SPEAKER_00: But it didn't matter because Obama was cool as hell and supporting him was a cool thing to do.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: And it was kind of a way to show that you were like with it.
16:26
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
16:27
SPEAKER_01: This is the view that I think has destroyed the Democratic Party.
16:33
SPEAKER_01: is that Obama being cool is why swing voters vote for him.
16:37
SPEAKER_01: Obama being cool is why progressives voted for a candidate who said that marriage
16:44
SPEAKER_01: is between a man and a woman,
16:46
SPEAKER_01: for a candidate who said that affirmative action is bad and should be changed,
16:50
SPEAKER_01: who said that it makes him viscerally angry when he sees illegal immigrants waving
16:56
SPEAKER_01: Mexican flags at protests.
17:00
SPEAKER_01: who said that in 2008, he said that we need coal.
17:05
SPEAKER_01: In 2012, he said that we need natural gas.
17:07
SPEAKER_01: I 100% agree about the centrality of vibes and charisma to Obama's political success.
17:13
SPEAKER_01: But it's like,
17:14
SPEAKER_01: this is the one and only thing that people should listen to Matt Stoller about,
17:18
SPEAKER_01: which is that what Obama did was use his good vibes and his charisma to just
17:23
SPEAKER_01: systematically knife and gut psychotic leftists like Matt Stoller.
17:28
SPEAKER_01: And the problem that I think a lot of what Democrats do since then,
17:36
SPEAKER_01: what makes me nervous about like,
17:39
SPEAKER_01: maybe Harris will put Andy Beshear on the ticket,
17:42
SPEAKER_01: right?
17:42
SPEAKER_01: Because it's like, he's got a Southern accent.
17:44
SPEAKER_01: He's from Kentucky.
17:46
SPEAKER_01: Is this belief that you can do this all superficially to pivot this into more a
17:51
SPEAKER_01: direction that I think you will agree with,
17:52
SPEAKER_01: right?
17:52
SPEAKER_01: Like,
17:54
SPEAKER_01: What happens in politics is that Republicans have this attack machine that gears up, right?
18:00
SPEAKER_01: And they throw stuff at you.
18:02
SPEAKER_01: The very first round of stuff that they throw at Harris is kind of bad.
18:07
SPEAKER_01: It's kind of just like low effort, sleazeball stuff put up by people who hate women.
18:14
SPEAKER_01: But you put a little bit more time into it.
18:17
SPEAKER_01: And you're going to be like, oh, she just said and did a lot of stuff over the years, factually.
18:23
SPEAKER_01: She really did say that she was going to ban fracking nationally.
18:28
SPEAKER_01: That's not the end of her political career, but it's an attack that's going to come.
18:32
SPEAKER_01: And she's going to have to say something about it, like in states where that's a big driver.
18:39
SPEAKER_01: She took different positions about health care policy that aren't in line with the Biden administration.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: And so she's going to have to come up with something to say about it.
18:50
SPEAKER_01: I don't think voters care that much about flip flopping.
18:52
SPEAKER_01: I think it's actually like really easy to like flop away from unpopular stances
18:56
SPEAKER_01: that you took in the past.
18:58
SPEAKER_01: But you've got to be ready for it.
18:59
SPEAKER_00: You know, Obama was good at this, right?
19:01
SPEAKER_00: Like Obama.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: Obama had supported single payer health care when he was like a young state politician.
19:07
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
19:08
SPEAKER_00: And then when it came time to run for president,
19:10
SPEAKER_00: he would say stuff like,
19:11
SPEAKER_00: look,
19:11
SPEAKER_00: if I was designing the system from scratch,
19:13
SPEAKER_00: that's what I would build.
19:13
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
19:15
SPEAKER_00: And it's not hard for Harris to say something like that.
19:19
SPEAKER_01: There are many, many, many things she could say.
19:24
SPEAKER_01: And I'm not like, oh, she's doomed, right?
19:26
SPEAKER_01: It's just that, like, you know, she is perceived as more left wing than Biden is.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: in part because she's a Black woman from California,
19:39
SPEAKER_01: but in part because when she ran against Joe Biden in 2020,
19:43
SPEAKER_01: she took positions that were to his left.
19:46
SPEAKER_01: And one can debate the relative weight of gender,
19:51
SPEAKER_01: race,
19:52
SPEAKER_01: Californian-ness,
19:54
SPEAKER_01: old position-taking,
19:55
SPEAKER_01: whatever,
19:57
SPEAKER_01: but all the indicators point in the same direction.
20:00
SPEAKER_01: direction, that it's like, okay, good.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: We got somebody who's younger than Biden,
20:05
SPEAKER_01: but also younger people are stereotyped as being more left wing.
20:09
SPEAKER_01: And so it's like, what do you do?
20:12
SPEAKER_01: And she doesn't need to address it on her first day as candidate,
20:17
SPEAKER_01: doesn't need to be the second day,
20:19
SPEAKER_01: but it probably shouldn't be wait till October,
20:23
SPEAKER_01: particularly because there's things you can do when you're brand new
20:27
SPEAKER_01: That are easy,
20:28
SPEAKER_01: you know,
20:28
SPEAKER_01: like she can place a telephone call to Lisa Murkowski to say,
20:34
SPEAKER_01: you know,
20:35
SPEAKER_01: I appreciate your vote for Trump's conviction and your appeal to Democratic voters
20:41
SPEAKER_01: in Alaska.
20:43
SPEAKER_01: And,
20:43
SPEAKER_01: you know,
20:44
SPEAKER_01: I want to see what we can talk about to work together,
20:47
SPEAKER_01: you know,
20:48
SPEAKER_01: and like if she committed to like.
20:51
SPEAKER_01: the biden administration made some very specific policy changes that are bad for
20:56
SPEAKER_01: the oil industry in alaska which like i don't think anyone in the electorate cares
21:01
SPEAKER_01: about but like i know that lisa murkowski and mary poltola both care a lot about
21:08
SPEAKER_01: and you know there's like vibes in obtaining bipartisan um nominations etc etc
21:16
SPEAKER_01: I just want to see something.
21:18
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
21:19
SPEAKER_01: I want to see her take this seriously.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: I think we both agree that a formula like this works,
21:24
SPEAKER_00: is that through rhetorical shrewdness or position taking,
21:29
SPEAKER_00: she can disarm the swing voter she needs to win the election by being young and cool.
21:35
SPEAKER_00: Relative to Joe Biden,
21:36
SPEAKER_00: at least,
21:36
SPEAKER_00: she can galvanize young voters,
21:41
SPEAKER_00: Black voters,
21:41
SPEAKER_00: Hispanic voters,
21:42
SPEAKER_00: rebuild something that looks like the Obama coalition.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: And I think that if we disagree, it's this.
21:49
SPEAKER_00: It's that like – I think that in your head there's a model where the persona of –
22:00
SPEAKER_00: A Democratic candidate explains why they do well or poorly with the base and that
22:06
SPEAKER_00: the position taking that they do explains why they do well or poorly with swing voters.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: And I think that that's not like false,
22:14
SPEAKER_00: but that these two things interact in a way and that like voters do herd.
22:19
SPEAKER_00: And like there's a reason why Donald Trump has done better as Joe Biden has done
22:23
SPEAKER_00: worse is that people are motivated to give Donald Trump a second look when they
22:27
SPEAKER_00: think he's going to win.
22:28
SPEAKER_00: People will flock in that direction.
22:30
SPEAKER_00: And a revitalized Democratic campaign that has been revitalized because of a
22:36
SPEAKER_00: perception widespread in the culture that Harris is like –
22:40
SPEAKER_00: breath of fresh air,
22:41
SPEAKER_00: cool person,
22:43
SPEAKER_00: like somebody that we should get behind for moral reasons,
22:49
SPEAKER_00: just because it feels good.
22:52
SPEAKER_00: That is in and of itself going to attract people who don't know much about politics
22:56
SPEAKER_00: and who swing back and forth in the election because people don't like to be left
22:59
SPEAKER_00: behind by moments like these.
23:01
SPEAKER_00: And like I...
23:05
SPEAKER_00: if you have to wait the two factors,
23:07
SPEAKER_00: I just think that like making sure you don't lose that,
23:12
SPEAKER_00: that juge is way more important for this election than like,
23:16
SPEAKER_00: than like how specifically you alter the Biden budget or,
23:21
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:23
SPEAKER_00: whatever.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: And like, and like, I would, I would, I am totally with you.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: Get yourself a bunch of Republican validators.
23:30
SPEAKER_00: Even if you,
23:30
SPEAKER_00: even if you aren't really offering them anything concrete,
23:32
SPEAKER_00: just having it out there that like,
23:35
SPEAKER_00: The statement Mitt Romney made when Biden stepped down I think showed that whether
23:42
SPEAKER_00: Romney would have ever endorsed Biden or not,
23:44
SPEAKER_00: there was mutual admiration there on the basis of we take our responsibilities as
23:50
SPEAKER_00: public officials seriously and we know Donald Trump doesn't.
23:53
SPEAKER_00: And I think that Harris can –
23:58
SPEAKER_00: benefit from that same thing.
23:59
SPEAKER_00: And she's got more energy and time to, to work the phones, to get that to happen.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: But like, that is still vibe creation.
24:09
SPEAKER_00: That's not, that's not negotiating policy.
24:13
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
24:14
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
24:14
SPEAKER_01: But okay.
24:15
SPEAKER_01: So, but what I think is important about the vibes, right.
24:19
SPEAKER_01: It's like, this is why I'm a little like fired up this morning.
24:24
SPEAKER_01: is that because of what you were saying, this bandwagoning, right?
24:28
SPEAKER_01: It's easier to do this stuff if you do it faster.
24:33
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
24:35
SPEAKER_01: I think a lot about sort of the Biden administration's drift on immigration issues.
24:43
SPEAKER_01: We're like, ultimately, when they were deeply under the gun,
24:48
SPEAKER_01: They really got their shit together.
24:50
SPEAKER_01: They had this bipartisan bill.
24:53
SPEAKER_01: It fell apart.
24:54
SPEAKER_01: They had a good message against Trump.
24:56
SPEAKER_01: They've actually brought border crossings down a lot.
24:58
SPEAKER_01: But they didn't do it until they were deeply underwater on this topic.
25:03
SPEAKER_01: And it's hard to pull out.
25:05
SPEAKER_01: Right now, Harris has just incredible momentum.
25:08
SPEAKER_01: People want to find reasons to like her.
25:12
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
25:13
SPEAKER_01: You know, there's like a strong disposition in her favor.
25:16
SPEAKER_01: And so that's a chance to to call up Mitt Romney and to say,
25:22
SPEAKER_01: not only I appreciate your statement about Biden,
25:28
SPEAKER_01: I appreciated your good faith in coming to the White House with a covid stimulus offer.
25:36
SPEAKER_01: Back in 2021,
25:38
SPEAKER_01: at the time,
25:39
SPEAKER_01: we were really optimistic that we were going to run the table with this child tax
25:43
SPEAKER_01: credit thing,
25:43
SPEAKER_01: but it didn't work out for us.
25:46
SPEAKER_01: Not as a public statement even, but just musing with MIT, talking about what might have been.
25:52
SPEAKER_01: If they'd worked together on that,
25:53
SPEAKER_01: talk about the fact that they just agree on a lot of foreign policy questions.
25:58
SPEAKER_01: And how she is not Joe Biden in terms of having 90 billion foreign policy staffers
26:05
SPEAKER_01: who he's worked with over a million years.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: And that if he knows people who can come and rebuild NATO and help rebuild
26:13
SPEAKER_01: bipartisan consensus,
26:14
SPEAKER_01: let's keep the lines of dialogue up.
26:16
SPEAKER_01: You don't need to offer anything in specific to people who are looking for reasons to like you.
26:21
SPEAKER_01: But you do have to do it fast, right?
26:23
SPEAKER_01: Because if you're losing in October,
26:27
SPEAKER_01: Still, everybody's going to be dumping on you.
26:31
SPEAKER_01: This is why she's losing.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: Right.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: And like left wing people will be saying she's losing because she's not left wing enough.
26:38
SPEAKER_01: you know, anti-Trump Republicans will be saying she didn't court us enough.
26:42
SPEAKER_01: You know, business people whose wives hate Trump will be like, oh, she never fucking threw us a bone.
26:47
SPEAKER_01: It's like now is the time to throw the bones, you know?
26:51
SPEAKER_01: Look, I- While you've got the momentum.
26:54
SPEAKER_00: I share the urgency and I feel like these are good ideas,
26:58
SPEAKER_00: but you started,
26:59
SPEAKER_00: you got from Mitt Romney by starting at immigration and like Republicans are,
27:06
SPEAKER_00: already running against her on immigration.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: And I think that because she was associated with the early Biden administration
27:14
SPEAKER_00: immigration policy,
27:16
SPEAKER_00: they feel like they're back on their heels a bit.
27:18
SPEAKER_00: But the way I would respond to the urgency around immigration isn't necessarily to call Romney.
27:23
SPEAKER_00: I would just say, under my watch, the border is more secure than it ever was under Trump.
27:31
SPEAKER_00: Just say it.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I agree.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: But just claim the victory, call them liars.
27:37
SPEAKER_00: But my fear,
27:39
SPEAKER_00: and this is how I worry that this works when you're trying to turn policy knobs in
27:43
SPEAKER_00: order to increase your popularity,
27:46
SPEAKER_00: is that if she is like,
27:47
SPEAKER_00: oh,
27:47
SPEAKER_00: I need to take a centrist stand on immigration so that the swing voters know it,
27:52
SPEAKER_00: and you do it in this ham-handed way where you talk about like,
27:58
SPEAKER_00: Like migrants or border crossers or what did I think Biden said illegals at the State of the Union.
28:04
SPEAKER_00: Like you don't want to over index on that kind of signaling if it's going to.
28:12
SPEAKER_00: undermine your coolness vibe like you don't want the like people out there making
28:18
SPEAKER_00: positive memes with you dancing and having fun and seeming like a cool person to
28:22
SPEAKER_00: turn on you now right and so there's like a there's like a there's like a deftness
28:27
SPEAKER_01: my point about immigration though is like this is why i'm bringing up the
28:31
SPEAKER_01: pennsylvania fracking thing right it's better to moderate a little
28:37
SPEAKER_01: it becomes a political crisis.
28:39
SPEAKER_01: Because you're right.
28:40
SPEAKER_01: Immigration has gotten to a point now where it is a no-win situation.
28:44
SPEAKER_01: I think the only way for Democrats to regain credibility with the median voter on
28:49
SPEAKER_01: immigration right now is to go really right-wing.
28:53
SPEAKER_01: you know, like soup.
28:54
SPEAKER_01: Cause like the thermostat has just swung.
28:56
SPEAKER_01: Like people just fucking hate immigrants now.
28:58
SPEAKER_01: And you're doomed.
29:00
SPEAKER_01: If you said things that most Americans agree with about immigration now,
29:03
SPEAKER_01: like I would be appalled,
29:04
SPEAKER_01: you know,
29:04
SPEAKER_01: everybody would,
29:06
SPEAKER_01: but that's,
29:07
SPEAKER_01: so it's not that like,
29:08
SPEAKER_01: I think there's anything in particular that she needs to do there,
29:11
SPEAKER_01: but it's that you want to really like,
29:13
SPEAKER_01: look at the list of vulnerabilities and like start obvious one,
29:18
SPEAKER_01: right?
29:19
SPEAKER_01: Like, um,
29:21
SPEAKER_01: Just delete all the old tweets.
29:25
SPEAKER_01: Just scrub them and start writing some new ones.
29:29
SPEAKER_01: Not that it literally makes them vanish, but just get ahead of it.
29:34
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
29:38
SPEAKER_01: Don't count on the fact that she's younger and that she can deliver the attack
29:43
SPEAKER_01: lines on Trump better as salvation.
29:48
SPEAKER_01: Act paranoid.
29:49
SPEAKER_01: Try
29:51
SPEAKER_01: To win.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Dig in.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Well,
29:54
SPEAKER_01: I think that optimizing all fronts,
29:56
SPEAKER_00: it's just like these signals interfere with each other and you don't like,
29:59
SPEAKER_00: the optimum may not,
30:00
SPEAKER_00: like I don't think you can optimize on coolness and then optimize separately on
30:03
SPEAKER_00: policy without undermining both objectives,
30:10
SPEAKER_00: right?
30:10
SPEAKER_00: Like there's a global optimum.
30:13
SPEAKER_00: here and it requires like you know just like a sound mixer finding the right
30:18
SPEAKER_00: balance of things okay well let's let's move on okay i mean you can you can you can
30:25
SPEAKER_00: read me about my view offline um so on the flip side of this um harris is like you
30:34
SPEAKER_00: alluded to she's our she's coming in for a bunch of like really gross um and i
30:39
SPEAKER_00: think
30:41
SPEAKER_00: from the Republican perspective, counterproductive attacks on her dating history, on her childlessness.
30:48
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that Democrats should just ignore it or assume that these will
30:56
SPEAKER_00: boomerang on Republicans automatically and they should be willing to respond,
31:02
SPEAKER_00: but in a strong way.
31:03
SPEAKER_00: But I think more...
31:09
SPEAKER_00: like tougher attacks are coming.
31:11
SPEAKER_00: And those might be about policy.
31:12
SPEAKER_00: But the one that is like,
31:14
SPEAKER_00: I think most proximate to the succession from Biden to Trump is like,
31:21
SPEAKER_00: why did Joe Biden run the primary,
31:24
SPEAKER_00: win the primary,
31:25
SPEAKER_00: then deliver a debate performance that alarmed the entire party and then drop out?
31:31
SPEAKER_00: And so Republicans have already subpoenaed
31:34
SPEAKER_00: I have the list here.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: It's Jill Biden's senior advisor,
31:38
SPEAKER_00: Anthony Bernal,
31:40
SPEAKER_00: deputy chief of staff,
31:41
SPEAKER_00: Annie Tomasini,
31:42
SPEAKER_00: and Biden's senior advisor,
31:44
SPEAKER_00: Ashley Williams.
31:44
SPEAKER_00: And so that's like one layer beneath like the most senior people.
31:50
SPEAKER_00: But I assume Republicans will get to Jeff Zients and Anita Don and Donnellan and Ricchetti, right?
31:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
31:57
SPEAKER_00: they are trying to,
31:58
SPEAKER_00: they want to hold a series of hearings about,
32:01
SPEAKER_00: you know,
32:01
SPEAKER_00: Biden's secret dimension,
32:02
SPEAKER_00: how there's this cabal of czars that's like been secretly running the country and that,
32:07
SPEAKER_00: and that Harris knew and she was in on it.
32:09
SPEAKER_00: Um,
32:11
SPEAKER_00: And so, I mean, I think the truth of the matter is important here.
32:16
SPEAKER_00: But my view thinking through, like, what do you do about this situation is twofold.
32:22
SPEAKER_00: One is like the fact that Biden has committed to serving out the term and will
32:26
SPEAKER_00: return to the campaign trail on behalf of Harris.
32:29
SPEAKER_00: He will,
32:30
SPEAKER_00: you know,
32:30
SPEAKER_00: he will remind people that he's still old,
32:32
SPEAKER_00: but prove that he is compostmentous like and can do the job.
32:36
SPEAKER_00: And that's going to be the main thing is just like by contrast to what Republicans
32:40
SPEAKER_00: are saying,
32:40
SPEAKER_00: it's going to they're going to seem like they're reaching.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: But if I were a Senate Democratic committee chairman with interest in this,
32:50
SPEAKER_00: I might try to beat Republicans to the punch and bring these same people in.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: for the purposes of giving them a friendlier venue in which to say this idea that
33:02
SPEAKER_00: Biden's been a vegetable for the last six months and we've been secretly running
33:06
SPEAKER_00: the government is false and here's the proof.
33:12
SPEAKER_00: Here's some stories that convey like how engaged he is.
33:16
SPEAKER_00: Because otherwise it's just gonna like,
33:19
SPEAKER_00: Jim Jordan is going to fill that void.
33:20
SPEAKER_00: It's actually James Comer, I guess, is going to fill that void.
33:23
SPEAKER_00: And they,
33:25
SPEAKER_00: I think,
33:25
SPEAKER_00: can get a lot of juice out of this in a way that is not,
33:30
SPEAKER_00: I think,
33:30
SPEAKER_00: going to be like some immediate death blow to Harris,
33:32
SPEAKER_00: but it's one of these sorts of...
33:38
SPEAKER_00: It can slowly chip away at the public sense that she's trustworthy.
33:45
SPEAKER_00: If there's no...
33:48
SPEAKER_00: concerted democratic response to the idea which i believe is false that kamala
33:53
SPEAKER_00: harris participated in some cover-up of biden dementia or whatever and so don't let
34:00
SPEAKER_00: them do that the way they did with hunter biden or emails or whatever like get
34:04
SPEAKER_01: ahead of it yeah put a blanket over it also they need to um
34:12
SPEAKER_01: So,
34:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
34:12
SPEAKER_01: I think that's a good idea to,
34:13
SPEAKER_01: like,
34:13
SPEAKER_01: give people a friendly forum in which to talk about things.
34:19
SPEAKER_01: You know, I also think, though, that they need to send Hunter away somewhere.
34:28
SPEAKER_01: You know,
34:29
SPEAKER_01: because I think you want – I think commonsensically,
34:31
SPEAKER_01: if you're telling journalists a story,
34:32
SPEAKER_01: there's a difference between,
34:34
SPEAKER_01: like –
34:36
SPEAKER_01: who has Joe Biden been talking to as he does the job of president of the United
34:39
SPEAKER_01: States for the past three months,
34:42
SPEAKER_01: six months,
34:43
SPEAKER_01: three and a half years?
34:44
SPEAKER_01: And who has Joe Biden been talking to for the past three weeks as he discusses his
34:50
SPEAKER_01: political and personal future,
34:52
SPEAKER_01: right?
34:52
SPEAKER_01: It's completely reasonable that in the past three weeks worth of discussion,
34:57
SPEAKER_01: he has been heavily leaning on his family,
35:01
SPEAKER_01: Because that's who you lean on when you make these kind of decisions.
35:05
SPEAKER_01: When I was considering changing my job and my career and leaving Vox and starting
35:10
SPEAKER_01: Slow Boring,
35:11
SPEAKER_01: I talked a lot to my wife.
35:12
SPEAKER_01: I talked to my dad.
35:13
SPEAKER_01: Not to my professional colleagues.
35:15
SPEAKER_01: I talked to my family members.
35:17
SPEAKER_01: intimates, right?
35:18
SPEAKER_01: So of course he talked a lot to Jill.
35:21
SPEAKER_01: He talked a lot to Valerie, his sister.
35:23
SPEAKER_01: He talked a lot to Hunter, who though a disreputable fellow is his son.
35:27
SPEAKER_01: And he talked a lot to people like Bernal, who is Jill Biden's staffer, you know, things like that.
35:33
SPEAKER_01: Totally fine, et cetera, et cetera.
35:36
SPEAKER_01: You don't want to give the impression that that's who's running the government.
35:41
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
35:42
SPEAKER_01: Like now that the decision is made,
35:46
SPEAKER_01: And,
35:46
SPEAKER_01: like,
35:46
SPEAKER_01: Joe Biden is president,
35:48
SPEAKER_01: and he will be president until January 20th,
35:52
SPEAKER_01: 2025,
35:52
SPEAKER_01: and Kamala Harris is going to be the nominee.
35:55
SPEAKER_01: It's just,
35:55
SPEAKER_01: like,
35:56
SPEAKER_01: the people in the room with Joe Biden need to be the chief of staff,
36:00
SPEAKER_01: the national security advisor.
36:02
SPEAKER_01: Like, you know, the government officials, not...
36:07
SPEAKER_01: uh, his sister and the first lady's chief of staff and, and stuff like that.
36:11
SPEAKER_01: Cause you just like, you want to be back to work, you know, like doing the, the job.
36:17
SPEAKER_01: And it's weird.
36:18
SPEAKER_01: Like the COVID situation is odd, uh, because you know, that has its own limitations.
36:23
SPEAKER_00: The fact that Joe Biden has COVID.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
36:26
SPEAKER_00: Not the, he got COVID in what appears to be like a, a, a summer winter.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: wave of infections.
36:32
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I know all these people who had COVID over the past two weeks, et cetera, et cetera.
36:36
SPEAKER_01: But it's like,
36:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
36:37
SPEAKER_01: you want to first,
36:38
SPEAKER_01: like,
36:39
SPEAKER_01: yes,
36:39
SPEAKER_01: like,
36:39
SPEAKER_01: I think,
36:40
SPEAKER_01: like,
36:40
SPEAKER_01: get the staffers out there to tell their stories to friendly people who are not
36:43
SPEAKER_01: trying to trip them up.
36:45
SPEAKER_01: And you also just need to, like, see and be seen, the president, like, presidenting in a normal way.
36:51
SPEAKER_01: Like, in meetings with government officials and...
36:55
SPEAKER_01: You know,
36:56
SPEAKER_00: it occurs to me that this part of the solution to the problem of like,
37:01
SPEAKER_00: how do you know,
37:02
SPEAKER_00: to the extent that Biden having to relinquish the nomination because he's too old
37:07
SPEAKER_00: is a political problem because he's still president.
37:11
SPEAKER_00: You know, just doing the job is part of how you dispel any sense that something's like really off here.
37:16
SPEAKER_00: But it reminds me to like bring us back just for a second to what we talked about
37:21
SPEAKER_00: on like the first question,
37:22
SPEAKER_00: like what can Harris do to
37:25
SPEAKER_00: in the policy realm to,
37:27
SPEAKER_00: um,
37:27
SPEAKER_00: to distinguish yourself from Biden is that I think that like,
37:30
SPEAKER_00: it's worth putting some thought into what Biden can do now that he is not burdened
37:37
SPEAKER_00: by the,
37:38
SPEAKER_00: um,
37:39
SPEAKER_00: by the pressures of having to,
37:40
SPEAKER_00: to be reelected to,
37:43
SPEAKER_00: um,
37:43
SPEAKER_00: make the playing field,
37:45
SPEAKER_00: uh,
37:47
SPEAKER_00: like more competitive for Harris.
37:49
SPEAKER_00: Like what policy steps can he take to, um,
37:54
SPEAKER_00: to,
37:55
SPEAKER_00: you know,
37:56
SPEAKER_00: obviously I'm not talking about like do illegal things that hurt Donald Trump's
38:00
SPEAKER_00: political chances,
38:01
SPEAKER_00: but like if he could,
38:04
SPEAKER_00: if he has more running room now to bring an end to the war in Ukraine or the war in Gaza,
38:12
SPEAKER_00: like because he's not worried about his reelection prospects,
38:16
SPEAKER_00: that would be good for Kamala Harris,
38:18
SPEAKER_00: Kamala Harris.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: Fuck me.
38:22
SPEAKER_00: Um,
38:22
SPEAKER_00: if he can,
38:22
SPEAKER_00: you know,
38:23
SPEAKER_00: um,
38:24
SPEAKER_00: to the extent that he was slow rolling ideas that would be popular,
38:30
SPEAKER_00: but that would,
38:30
SPEAKER_00: or,
38:31
SPEAKER_00: or,
38:31
SPEAKER_00: or that,
38:31
SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
38:32
SPEAKER_00: would get a lot of buzz,
38:32
SPEAKER_00: but,
38:33
SPEAKER_00: um,
38:34
SPEAKER_00: he wanted to wait until term two for whatever reason,
38:36
SPEAKER_00: like maybe now is a good time to do that.
38:39
SPEAKER_00: Um, and, um,
38:43
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's tough because I can't think offhand.
38:48
SPEAKER_01: Obviously, the best thing he could do would be to somehow, as you say, end these wars.
38:58
SPEAKER_01: But it's not obvious to me what about this situation gives him increased opportunity to...
39:07
SPEAKER_00: achieve that you know because um i think he could probably drive a harder line with
39:14
SPEAKER_01: netanyahu now than he i mean i don't think so though because well because if you're
39:20
SPEAKER_01: netanyahu you just like trump's just gonna win like i don't care netanyahu has has
39:28
SPEAKER_01: more reason to doubt that now
39:30
SPEAKER_01: Well, maybe.
39:31
SPEAKER_01: I mean, with Harris in.
39:32
SPEAKER_01: But I think it's tough, you know?
39:35
SPEAKER_01: Because if you take really tough action against Netanyahu, like, Harris is going to disavow it.
39:44
SPEAKER_00: Right?
39:44
SPEAKER_00: I think Harris can say there's one president at a time on foreign policy.
39:49
SPEAKER_00: And, like, I... Maybe.
39:51
SPEAKER_00: You know?
39:52
SPEAKER_00: And,
39:52
SPEAKER_00: like,
39:52
SPEAKER_00: I think Harris,
39:53
SPEAKER_00: in a weird way,
39:53
SPEAKER_00: has this interesting flexibility on the question because her...
39:57
SPEAKER_00: I think her...
39:59
SPEAKER_00: Her established position is more hostile to Netanyahu than Biden.
40:05
SPEAKER_00: But her husband is Doug Amhoff.
40:10
SPEAKER_00: He's like a Jewish man, and he's believed, viewed to be like – not necessarily pro-Netanyahu, but –
40:19
SPEAKER_00: sympathetic to the needs of Israel.
40:22
SPEAKER_00: And there's a reasonably good chance that she's going to pick Josh Shapiro to be her running mate.
40:29
SPEAKER_00: So she can kind of play both sides here in a way,
40:33
SPEAKER_00: like that term makes it sound like nefarious,
40:36
SPEAKER_00: but like reassure people in the Democratic coalition who are sick and tired.
40:40
SPEAKER_01: I agree with that.
40:41
SPEAKER_00: While also being like, but we're not going to like be...
40:46
SPEAKER_00: You know,
40:47
SPEAKER_00: like like throw in with the with like leftist free Palestine people in the US
40:52
SPEAKER_00: because look who my husband is.
40:54
SPEAKER_00: Look who my running mate is.
40:55
SPEAKER_00: That's not who we are either.
40:56
SPEAKER_00: And then Biden can be like, look.
40:59
SPEAKER_00: And this now or deal with her.
41:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, maybe maybe it'll work.
41:05
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
41:06
SPEAKER_01: I think it's.
41:08
SPEAKER_01: I think it's tough, right?
41:09
SPEAKER_01: Versus,
41:09
SPEAKER_01: say,
41:10
SPEAKER_01: on immigration,
41:11
SPEAKER_01: right,
41:11
SPEAKER_01: where I actually think this works in a really,
41:14
SPEAKER_01: like,
41:14
SPEAKER_01: complimentary way.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: Like,
41:17
SPEAKER_01: because Biden is not the candidate,
41:20
SPEAKER_01: it doesn't really matter what he,
41:22
SPEAKER_01: like,
41:22
SPEAKER_01: says about immigration or what vibes it projects.
41:26
SPEAKER_01: But if he can just,
41:27
SPEAKER_01: like,
41:27
SPEAKER_01: drive those numbers down as low as possible to any means necessary,
41:33
SPEAKER_01: that just makes it easier for Harris to say,
41:35
SPEAKER_01: like,
41:35
SPEAKER_01: literally whatever she wants to say.
41:38
SPEAKER_01: About immigration?
41:39
SPEAKER_01: Just claim mission accomplished.
41:41
SPEAKER_01: If just like the issue becomes less pressing substantively.
41:45
SPEAKER_01: Because Biden no longer has to defend himself to the groups or whatever.
41:48
SPEAKER_01: He can frankly just tell them, you know what?
41:51
SPEAKER_01: You just want Harris to win this election.
41:53
SPEAKER_01: Leave me alone.
41:55
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't really matter.
42:00
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is – In Israel, I mean, I hope you're right.
42:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I hope this creates some opportunity.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: We're just riffing here because we didn't – But it's like very – well,
42:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean – But it's a good – like what should – how should Biden change his use of
42:14
SPEAKER_00: executive power now that he's not – to give his heir like the best possible chance
42:20
SPEAKER_00: of winning I think is like a reasonable question and one that I hope the
42:23
SPEAKER_00: administration and campaign are thinking about.
42:25
SPEAKER_00: Seriously.
42:26
SPEAKER_01: We got to do a paywall at some point.
42:28
SPEAKER_00: No, I know.
42:28
SPEAKER_00: Let's put the paywall here.
42:29
SPEAKER_01: We're asleep on the job.
42:30
SPEAKER_00: No, let's put it here.
42:32
SPEAKER_00: I should have done it before, but enjoy the extra free 10 minutes or whatever.
42:36
SPEAKER_00: But I think here it's a good transition because what we want to talk about on the
42:41
SPEAKER_00: other side is like,
42:44
SPEAKER_00: is there anything Harris and the Democrats can do to protect her from being...
42:48
SPEAKER_00: like slowly turned into sludge by the right wing noise machine.
42:53
SPEAKER_00: And like this,
42:53
SPEAKER_00: this idea that you get the numbers down and you say,
42:56
SPEAKER_00: look,
42:57
SPEAKER_00: our numbers on immigration are better than Trump's were.
43:00
SPEAKER_00: I think like there's a lot of evidence of getting gas prices down,
43:04
SPEAKER_00: getting crime down,
43:05
SPEAKER_00: getting the inflation down.
43:07
SPEAKER_00: And then you point to the numbers and you say,
43:09
SPEAKER_00: look,
43:09
SPEAKER_00: like things are better than they were under Trump is not,
43:14
SPEAKER_00: good enough as, as politics to protect you from that smear machine.
43:20
SPEAKER_00: So we'll talk about like what that means and,
43:22
SPEAKER_00: and if,
43:23
SPEAKER_00: what,
43:23
SPEAKER_00: if anything Democrats can do about it on the other side.
43:26
SPEAKER_00: And if you want to hear that part of the conversation,
43:28
SPEAKER_00: just go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.