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Best Bets NFL Wild Card Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I'm
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: is our NFL wild Card Weekend Best Bets episode. This
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: is the episode where we will get feedback from the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: wise guys who listen to the show. We will build
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: our moneyline Underdog round Robin. We will give out our
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Foxhole bet and our big balls Better the week, we
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: will narrow down our favorite picks across this wild Card Weekend.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: As our old pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: a ce money.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Out there, because there's a sea of money out there.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: you can check them out in the award winning Action
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Network app followed the Favorites Podcast to all of those
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: joining the podcast version of the show. As promised earlier,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: this week will be joined by our Favorites contest first
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: place winner newly minted forty thousand dollars winner Jesse Goldberg
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: at the very end of the show. That's on the
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: podcast version only, not in the live version. Podcast version only.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Let's bring in my co host, my companion, my compadre
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: my BFF professional better. Simon hunter Head, Oh.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Simon, how are we doing, Chad.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Dude, I'm feeling good. I get to see you this weekend.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I'm excited. Before we get to all that, here's the news.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: In the forty eight hours since we recorded our Tuesday show,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: three legendary coaches have retired were parted ways with their teams.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Of course, we're talking about Nick Saban retiring at Alabama,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick officially being announced as no longer the head
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: coach for the New England Patriots, Pete Carroll no longer
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: the head coach for the Seattle Seahawks.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: Look.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we talked about Mike Vrabel being in our
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Favorites Hall of Fame. It's hard to deny that these
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: coaches would get their own wings in a Favorites Hall
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: of Fame. They literally defied the odds when it comes
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: to betting. Since two thousand, there have been twenty four
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Super Bowls and twenty four college football title games. It's
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: forty eight total. Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, and Bill Belichick
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: have coached in twenty two of those games. That's forty
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: six percent and one p fifteen of them. That is insane.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: It's so much to even talk about. Where you know,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Nick Saban leaving changes the whole landscape of college football.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, Bill Belichick, I mean how much money have
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: we won betting on these guys.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I can tell you exactly how much we've won. Here's
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: a run on how amazing Nick Saban, Bill Belichick, and
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Pete Carroll have been in their careers, both straight up
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: and against the spread. Okay, straight up, these are straight
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: from Evan Abrams. These three coaches combined, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick nine twenty three, four fifteen and two straight up.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: That's sixty nine percent of their games. They are fifty
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: five percent against the spread in their eighty four combined
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: seasons as head coaches for the NFL College Football. To
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: their win totals over they are fifty twenty six and eight,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: which is sixty six percent. Their ranks against the spread
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years in the NFL. Bill Belichick is
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: one of one hundred and fifty coaches, Pete eighteenth, Nick
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Saban in college football eighth best against the spread record
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: of more than six hundred coaches. Okay, these guys as
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: favorites of seven or higher, a touchdown or higher. Bill
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Belichick fifty four percent against the spread. Nick Saban fifty
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: six percent against the spread. Pete Carroll fifty five percent
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: against the spread in college fifty three percent against the
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: spread in the pros. Still a money maker. You lost
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: money betting against these guys as big favorites. You don't
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: do that against their coaches.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's get into the game. Shaf BEOPO are sick
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: of us talking about these coaches.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast is presented by bet
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
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• 5:00
  Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky gambling problem called one
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right, wild Card weekend
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: is approaching. Lines have been moving. Let's get two sharp colls.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range. Somebody
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: said maybe would do the mad and shout out to
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: our layer listeners that turn their alerts on in the
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: action app. And they were able to get the plus
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: three on Houston. Told you exactly what's gonna happen. The
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: plus two was gonna pop. The pros are gonna come
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: in and slam it. That's literally any probably talk to.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: They smashed that plus three. So I think it was
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: there for four hours. You could have had it. It
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: was sitting there in the multiple books, and it's gone.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: It's two and a half. I don't I really don't
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna get back to the three. I think
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: the books know that if they do need any type
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: of Houston money, they can just move to three and
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: they'll get tons of it. So pros, they love Cleveland
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: at minus one and a half, they love Houston au
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: plus three. Do what you want. I mean, we're gonna
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: go through that game. We're gonna have a bunch of
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: stats and trends free. But it's such a key number game,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Like it's the pros are just split on it, Like
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: I know plenty of guys for both sides. So this
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: next one's pretty interesting. The Chiefs Miami game, I don't
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: really have that much of an opinion on it. Like
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: I did put an action a bet in the action
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: app of taking the Chief's money line with the Bills
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: money line, and it's just playing the numbers of Like, Okay,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Miami doesn't win in cold weather games, but I can't
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: wrap my head around taking the Chiefs at minus four
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: and a half now, Like it's just it's impossible for
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: me to do, Like just because they're off for a
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: week doesn't make me forget about how bad this offense
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: has been for the last three months. It's just I
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: can't get behind taking the Chiefs. I don't care how
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: cold it is, the wind everything. I want to take
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Miami here. So the pros I've talked to, they're in
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the same boat as me, where it's like they like
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs at three, they liked them at minus three
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: and a half, and once it hit four to four
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: and a half, It's like, all right, might as well
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: wait and see high this number can go for Miami,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: because that's gonna be the play. Like this numbers moved
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: too much based off weather. Miami is one of the
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: best running teams in football. Like, it's just such a
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: big deal to me what the situation is with mostert
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: So like me, most pros have either hit this number
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: or they've just been waiting now for the last day
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: or two to see where this number is going to go.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: So a lot of conversation around that Chiefs Miami game.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Bill is a game we kind of talked about
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: just because you love the Bill so much. If the
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: weather keeps getting worse, I guarantee you guys are just
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: gonna pound this this Pittsburgh number just because your biggest asset,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen. In this game against Rudolph, it's gone like
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: there is no advantage either side, right, It's like, okay,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: who can just survive? Like I haven't had his amazing
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: articley put out talking about how the Bills have fared
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: in this kind of weather games. And I think they
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: had one game where they blew out Miami, right, and
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: then the other games all seems pretty close, so we
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: don't have enough data there to really take a side
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: depending on the weather. But Chad's locked in a minus
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: ten on Buffalo, so I know where he's at. It's
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: just interesting talking the pros where it's like they're like me,
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: They're like this numbers move so much off the weather
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: and the watt news. At what point does it move
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: too much? Right? And that's the thing here. Now it's
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: just been sitting at ten though, right, I mean we're
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: two days later, it's still at ten. This next game
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: me and Chain are really going to dive into, so
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: I don't want to get too much away, but yeah,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: the pros love Green Bay. I know brainer play. The
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: fear is why isn't the number moved? And when I
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: talked to a couple of bookmakers, they're not moving it
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: because they know all the teasers, all the parlays, all
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: the moneyline players are all gonna be all over Dallas
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: and there's no need for them to really move it.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Like that helps them balance the book. The fact that
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: so many professions are coming on the seven and a half.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: But that's definitely the public side is Dallas. I thought
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: it was gonna be Green Bay in the seven and
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: a half. But from everyone I've talked to, it seems
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: like the public likes Dallas in that spot next one.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: We already knew the pros were gonna love the Rams
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: and everyone I talked to that's the thing that scared
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: me right now, Chads. I've maybe talked to two guys
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: that like Detroit. It seems like everyone is a so
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: lockstep on this RAMS team and at that number, even
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: have three. I talked to some pros. It's still like
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: it a three, but we said it on Tuesday. You
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: want to grab that three and a half. I knew
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: it was going to disappear. It has even the number
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: keeps moving towards the Rams. Like they were plus one
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: oh five at a couple of books. Now they're minus
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: one o five at those books. So even the juice
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: in the big is starting to move against this RAMS team.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: And the final one Tampa. No shock the pros they
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: liked the Eagles at under three. Now that it's at three,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: they like Tampa. They think that's the value right now
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: is on Tampa and another game will dive more into obviously,
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: but you know, Baker practice didn't look like the ankle
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: or the ribs were bothering them on the flip side.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: The Eagles, you know Smith is not practicing yet. I
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: know Aj is limited. They got major injuries Eagles compared
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: to this Bucks team. So definitely an interesting game we're
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: going to dive into.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: We go to the As a reminder, you can catch
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube, don't forget get to give us a
• 10:00
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• 10:03
  Speaker 1: the way, last chances to RSVP The Favorites podcast live
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: at The Shepherd and the Knucklehead, Hoboken, New Jersey wild
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Card weekend Sunday, January fourteenth. We will be there four
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: pm before the Browns and Texans kickoff. Free drinks, free entry,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: free hugs from me and Simon while we sweat the
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: bets together. We'll go live with the Sunday episode. At
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: seven point thirty, we will talk to our second place
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: finisher from the contest, the man who had thirty five
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars stolen from him by the Carolina Panthers. We
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: also have a live event Saturday Wildcard watch party with
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the whole cast and crew from Action Network, Stucky Raybunk
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Kerner Me Bill Steelers at one pm. Event starts at
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: four before Packers Cowboys again RSVP in the link in
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: the episode, all Right, we got to get to it, man,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: we got to get to it. Betting in the playoffs
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: is a lot different than betting in the regular season.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Don't be scared of the wild cards. Public sides in
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: the wildcard round. Last twenty years, teams getting a majority
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: of the tickets fifty three percent against the spread in
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the wildcard, best of any round in the playoffs. Okay,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: here we go, Cleveland at Houston. Like you said, it
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: popped for about four hours. I missed it. I didn't
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: see it all the home and away splits we rent through.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But it's worth reminding people. This Brown's defense just great
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: at home, historically bad on the road. Average rushing yards
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: gained against this Browns defense on the road two yards higher.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: They give up twice as many touchdown passes in one
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: fewer game, nearly three yards more per pass attempt in
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: one fewer game on the road. So nine games at home,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: eight games on the road, they gave up one hundred
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: and twelve more points thirty points per game. CJ lights
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: out at home. I actually think it will get back
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: to three on Sunday. Nobody's going to stop. The public
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: is not going to stop betting the Browns. So I
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: do think there's going to be a chance to get
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: the Texans at plus three. But I want to get
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: your take right now because I think this may be
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: one of our foxhular big balls.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because I do, I do. I did
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: want to get there with you. But even when I
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: was reading Evans article, it's like the number one, it's
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: the number one defensive football. I mean, you just gave
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: away the splits. This is how dominant they were, though
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: they were still the number one defense in all football.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: When you put all those numbers together, they're home and
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: away splits facing a rookie QB, a rookie head coach.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: And I think Evan put in his article the last
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: time this happened, it's own three. Right when a rookie
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: plays against the number one defense in the playoffs, they're
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: owing three straight up. So me and you are basically
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: betting on this being a two point game if you're
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: taking the two and a half right now in Houston.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: That's why it's like I want people to get the
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: three because it's just such nice insurance to have, especially
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. You want that, you really do, and
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: I don't want people to be buying points here like
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: I'd rather get it naturally. So I'm hoping Chad's right.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: But from my view, it seems like the books are
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: taking a position here, like the fact that they did
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: move it back to two and a half, and like
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: Chad said, every book you look at, all the money
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: is Brown's money. Right now, everyone is grabbing that two
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: and a half with Flacco. I mean, if Chad wants
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: to make one of our bets, I'll support it. But
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: it's like, I want people to get the three, and
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: that's the goal here, Like I got the three. I
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: waited for it, it popped. I hope Chad's right and
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: it pops again. But the fear here they're taking that
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: position like the books they're there's certain games and the
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: playoffs still take a position on that's they're going to
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: be our money maker for them, and this seems like
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: one of them because they're they're looking at what Chad's
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: looking at, which is CJ is better at home, he's
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: better as a dog, and this Browns defense is just
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: simply a different team on the road. So if you
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: want to know who the books and the pros are backing,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: it's going to be Houston. Like I thought it was
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: gonna be more split. The way it's looking, the more
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: this week is gone on, it just seems like that's
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: the side of the books in the pro So it
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: totally makes sense why you liked this early on. It
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: took me for a while to get there. It was
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: just like I was fighting with the number. But Houston
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: is the right side as a bet.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Here the only reason I'm mentioning it as a foxhole potential.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: We don't have that many options, and no we don't.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: We don't.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: As we go, we already did the Rams, as Simon says,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: we already did the Bills is the exact decision. There's
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: only a handful of games we can look at. I
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: want it to be at three to two. Like when
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I woke up, I wanted it to be at two
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and a half, and I wanted to say, all right, folks,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: our foxhole is going to be the Texans at plus three.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I wanted to be at three and I
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: woke up it was still two and a half. That's
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: my concern. We're not gonna get to three. We both
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: know we like the Texans here. We can go through
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: the games like. We don't have to make the choice
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: right now. No fucking graphics yet, Tito, Okay, let's just
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: hold off. I'm not gonna make a decision yet. I'm
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: just putting out on the board that we're gonna have
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to have a conversation about it. Here's a cool stat
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: from Evan C. J. Shroud and Dmico. Ryans took the
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Texans to the playoff as a rookie QB and head
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: coach Combo since the NFL merger, That's happened four other times.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Andrew Luck, Chuck Bagano, Mark Sanchez, Rex Ryan, Matt Ryan,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Mike Smith remember Mike Smith from the Atlanta Falcons and
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: incredibly this what makes so cool? Joe Flacco and John
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh from the two thousand and eight Ravens. Isn't that cool?
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Just think that Harball has been in the leaks
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: sixteen years now. He's the longest ten year or is
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: it Tomlin? It's one of the.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Two, Tomlin, Tomlin's one year longer.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, he's so Tomlin's seventeen. It's just like,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: damn when you look how long that is, It's like,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: that is crazy. They've been in the NFL that long
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: at this point.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Amazing. Look, we both like the Texans, we're going to
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: have to wait again. I wish it was at plus
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: three so we can make the foxhole, but according to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the rules imposed by Dictator Matt Mitchell, we have to
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: go with the number that's currently available. So it's making
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: us hesitant right now. Miami at Kansas City look huge
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: move in the past forty eight hours from three and
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a half to four and a half. I think it's
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: because of two things. I think weather is playing an
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: outsized factor. Weather will be impactful in Kansas City. It
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: will be impactful in Buffalo, we know for a fact,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: so that's going to be tricky. And I think it's
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: wreaking havoc with this point spread right now. And I
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: think people are are grappling with the Dolphins defense save
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: line pass rush issues. You you alluded to this in
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: sharp calls. Has it moved too much?
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's that's what everyone keeps saying to each other.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: It's like, okay, the weather report. I mean, people want
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: it broken down it's they're saying it's gonna be minus five.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: It's gonna feel like minus twenty four. We're gust up
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: to twenty nine miles per hour. And it's what is
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: it at eight pm? Or yeah, I think it's eight
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: pm Eastern kickoff, So it's a it's gonna be a
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: late start, cold windby gust. It's a big deal that
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: the Miami team is banged up on offensive. In fact,
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: that waddle on most art's out for a game where
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: you need everyone and that type of sitution is there, right,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: It's like you need all your guys really, and you
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: know the Chiefs, we all know they're no juggernaut, but
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: it's like we all have the confidence in my homes.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: He's been in these spotsfle he's played in this type
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: of weather at home. He knows how to handle it.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: Where two, it really has no experience with this. Like
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: you know, Evan wrote about how he's face these type
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: of snaries a little bit in Buffalo. One game it
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: was absolutely terrible. Another game he actually played pretty decent in.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: This is like insane though, Like to be outside and
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: minus twenty four degrees, Like I mean, take it from
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: someone who's become incredibly soft living in a tropical place.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: It's forty degrees here in New Jersey. I am freezing,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: like absolutely freeing. It's forty degrees. So it's gonna be
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: sixty degrees colder than it is right now, and I
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: can't really wrap my head around it. Where it's like
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: that is going to be just terrible for this Miami
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: guys who are just not gonna be used to where
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs guys really are. And that is a big deal.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: And yeah, Evan just gave us a stat mahomes under
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: thirty five degrees. He's fourteen to four straight up, twelve
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: and six ats. So I mean, we know, we know
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: we went to back them here. So if people want
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: to follow my bet that I did just taking the
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: money line of the Bills and the Chiefs put it together,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: it's I think minus one thirty five. It's like, I
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: just I like both those guys because of stats being
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Chat already talked about where the Dolphins since twenty seventeen
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: when it's below forty degrees their own to nine straight
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: up Pittsburgh without Watt, Chad talked about it, they're one
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: and ten straight up, Like that's just a nice little
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: pairing there for what we expect to be games very
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: affected by weather in this Chiefs game, like Chad just said,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: we want to be on Miami here, it's like, it's
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: hard to bet this though, when we don't know if
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: most's gonna play, like who is playing for Miami, and
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: it's hard to put your money down. And I don't
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: feel their need to rush to do it. Like me
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: and Chad, we'd like to beat the number, get the
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: best of the number. During the regular season, you could
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: be a lot more patient, especially if you're betting the
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: Dolphins that's getting no money, like Chad just talked about,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Like no one's really betting Miami right now, so I
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: know the pros are gonna like it, like every probably
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: talked you. For the most part, they agree with me
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: and Chad. This numbers probably moved too much. They want
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: to take Miami, but they have the same view as us.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: It's like, what's the rush, Like if we're lucky, if
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: this number keeps getting pushed up and money keeps pointing
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: on the Chiefs, could we see a six could across
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: those key numbers of five and a half and get
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: the six. I don't know, but I'm happy to wait.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: Like this game doesn't kick off, like we said, until
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: eight o'clock Saturdays, So just no, Me and Chatter are
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: both gonna be on Miami. The value is totally gone
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: from the Chiefs. So I would not bet the Chiefs now.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: If you're looking at the four and a half, I
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: just think the numbers move too much and you've already
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: missed the best of the number for this Chiefs team.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Well, look, this is one of those games where I
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: do feel like the Chiefs are getting a little bit
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: of the benefit of the doubt because of their legacy
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: and because of Patrick Mahomes. They have two viable pass catchers,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Rashi Rice and Travis Kelcey. And you can expect the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins to lock down Rashi Rice with Jalen Ramsey.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: They just will, and then they will double cover Travis Kelcey.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: And then Patrick Mahomes is going to find himself in
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the same position he's been in for the past eighteen games.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Seventeen games. He's not gonna have guys he can throw to.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: Guys are going to drop passes in miserable weather. The
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: under is interesting to me here. I'm surprised it hasn't
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: really moved, nah from forty four. To me, I've already
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: played the under in the Texans and the Browns game.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: It is a luck under this week. This also feels
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: like an under to me. The Chiefs have a hard
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: time scoring more than three touchdowns in a game, so
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: why would I feel confident with the same set of
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: receivers in bad weather? And also, by the way, the
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: best defense Patrick Mahomes has ever played with against a
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: team that their best option is going to be at
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: least running Devin Hm and Raheem Moster if he plays,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: which he may.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and the fact that they teams both already played
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: each other like also ads into that where I'm right
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: there with you. I really like the under, but as
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: you noticed, it hadn't really moved. Like Evan pum the chat,
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: it moved to forty two and a half. Professional money
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: came back in because it moved too much, they moved
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: it back to forty four. I like it at forty four, though,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, like, I've already bet this a couple
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: of times now because I kept thinking what you just said.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: I thought it was going to keep dropping because we
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: keep getting reports of stronger wins and you know, shout
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: out to our guy PG, who does a ton of
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: work for those pounds of scenes at action. He is
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: obsessed with win unders, like in our chats are a
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: little slack set. All he talks about are these win unders,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: and this is definitely one of these games popping right
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: now where you know, win gust up to thirty miles
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: per hour in that bowl of a stadium. That's a
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: big deal to try to pass, especially these two teams
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: that you know they want to pass the ball, but
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be able to, like
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: Chad I just talked about. So I already wanted to
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: take the under in this one because I do think
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: between the injuries out to Miami and the struggles of
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs, I already liked the under here. But now
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: you factor in this weather, I definitely feel more comfortable
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: betting this under than any other one this week.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: If you can find a forty four and a half,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I would recommend rabbing it because it's harder and harder
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: to find a reason to bet one side or the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: other in this game. Speaking of weather, I may have
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: pulled the trigger too early. I may not have gotten
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: the weather report from Matt Mitchell Dennis in of the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Paris of Western New York that I needed before I
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: bet Buffalo minus ten is my EXAC decision. It did
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: dip below for ten for a hot minute, very very
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: unpredictable weather in this game. Without the weather, it just
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: feels like a mismatch. And I had asked Evan to
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: help me out with some double digit underdogs because I
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: feel like double digit underdogs as a playoff bet are
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a bad bet. And double digit underdogs in the wild
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: card round two and seven against the spread the past
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: twenty years, double digit underdogs four and eleven against the
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: spread in the playoffs since twenty eleven, So my instincts
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: are right, Like you're getting Mason Rudolph in his first
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: playoff game on the road in bad conditions without his
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: best defensive player, So of course I want to pound
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: the Bills. I did, maybe too early because the weather
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: may recap it, but then again maybe it won't matter,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Like maybe the Bills get up twenty to nothing, and
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the game.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just the fear, is of course that the Bills.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, they if this was indoors, Like Matt keeps
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: talking about the Carrier Dome, Like this is a no brainer.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. They would run circles around
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team. But if it's going to be I mean,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: like I got my app open here, they're saying win
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: gust of forty seven miles per hour. Oh yeah, that's
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: terrible minus one degrees. Like just an absolute nightmare to
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: play in. And Pittsburgh has a two headed monster. Like
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: their running style is what's really you know, it's great
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: as Mason Ruis played these last couple of weeks, it
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: really has been. The running game has really picked up
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: these last couple of weeks for that team since they
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: made a change in obviously their identity change a lot
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: at Pittsburgh. It stinks Riorty had bet this over obviously
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: factor in these kind of weather scenario. It's just like, man,
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: this is not ideal. Like the Bills can run the ball,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: and Josh Allen's been cool with taking a step back
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: and letting them do that, right, like changing their offense,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: But how can we predict you know, if it's third
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: and five, does that mean we're dead? Because they can't
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: throw the pup five or six yards in the air.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: Because this wind right now, it's it is tough where
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: it's like I don't want to take you to tell
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: you to take a total or take you tell you
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: to take a big favorite here because it's it's so unknown.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: So once again, if you want to do that Bill's
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: money line on the Chiefs money line, I just don't
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: see us inn aara where the Bills lose this game
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: still even with such bad weather. It's like the Bills
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen, he's played in this multiple times now. He
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: knows how to play in this kind of weather and
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: how to play, you know, within his means with this
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: team and running the ball. And Josh Allen, if you
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: go back and watch the tape on these kind of games,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: he likes to run it too, right, Like he's more
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: than happy to pull it down and run it. Mason
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Rudolph is not the same man. This guy. I cannot
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: run the ball like that. So obviously it's a big
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: advantage of that Bill's team compared to the quarterback position.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: But yeah, chat, it stinks where I wanted to come
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: around on your Bills pick because of everything we just
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: talked about, Like you can take big favorites, especially in
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: the wildcard round and it's profitable, but the weather just
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: throws a wrench in all of it. It's like you
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: kind of got to thigure your model out now, because
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: how can any model predict how a certain team's going
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: to play in a certain style of weather. So it's
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: it's a tough one. But I think by by Saturday,
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: I mean Sunday morning. The hope is that the storm
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: blows off and we have a good game. But what
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: they're predicting right now is what I just told you people.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: They're stand there's gonna be forty seven per hour gust
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: like that's what me and Chad have to go off of.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: So if you don't want to bet this game, if
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: you want to set it out, or if you're already
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: invested like me and Chad, just let it ride. I'm
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: not buying on my position, but I'm not going to
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: be putting more money into this one is we just
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: don't know what the deal is going to be. So
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: this is definitely the game. If you don't have been
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: to it, wake up Sunday morning watch convinced me, go
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: make your bets. Don't need to force a bet on
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: this one yet until you know more.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: I am gonna love watching and sweating this game, like
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: every point is going to be at a premium. And
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I do think there's so many people who are looking
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: at this and thinking, oh, Mason Rudolph was great in
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: a torrential downpour against the Baltimore Ravens. He was eighteen
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: of twenty and you know they won the game and
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: they got into the playoffs. Yeah, that is a different
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: condition with a second string defense predominantly versus being in
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Buffalo with just dude. I've been in these games. I've
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: sat in these games as a fan, and it is excruciating.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: I would now want to be playing in one of
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: those games. It's going to be some lake effect snow.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be fun. Green Bay at Dallas. Look, we
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: were talking about this game on Sunday night. It was
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. We didn't understand the move. We
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday. It was seven and a half.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: We didn't understand why it hadn't come down. I'll tell
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: you right now. This morning, at seven and a half,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: I bit the bullet. I started to see some of
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: the Jews moving. I figured like it would finally move
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to seven. I couldn't find any reason not to bet
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Green Bay in this game.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Big balls better the week.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Big ball better the week. Now we Bay Packers seven
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: and a half against the Dallas Cowboys.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: Chad, I mean you both both knew we love this one.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: We're gonna end up all this one, like Chad's talking about,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: one of the most public books out there has already
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: moved this to minus one twenty five on green Bay
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: side at this number, So Chad's not wrong if you
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: want to grab Green Bay. It seems like this is
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: trending towards the seven. Go get to seven and a half.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie you chat. I was nervous because
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: what we talked about it it's that QB making us
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: first start against a veteran quarterback who's been there before,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: which you know as all the crap I like to
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: give to Dak. You know he's been to multiple playoff appearances,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: he's won multip playoff games. At this point, he knows
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: the deal. But shout out to my man Evan. But
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: in his article Dak at home, we fade, we fade,
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: we fade. He's never covered at home in the playoffs.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: And if he loses this one, I believe from Evan
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: he would break Carson Palmer's record or would he tie it?
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: And oh and four against the spread in the playoffs
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: at home, so too big of a number. It feels
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: like the books are protecting against teasers and parlays and yeah,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: just going through our action app right now on the
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: money line, So again, Dallas is minus one sixty minus
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: one seventy on the money line. Seventy one percent of
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: the money, eighty percent of the bets right now in
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Dallas's money line. So that lets you, you know, exactly know
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: where the public is at, like they love them in
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: this spot. They're paying this, everyone's paying this with the bills,
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: right this is like the chalk bet of the week.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Take the Bills, take Dallas the two biggest, or to
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: put them together on the money line. I just love
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: Green Bay here. They're all live dog like. Everything about
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: this feels like a live dog. JAD talking about Jordan
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Love against pressure and the blitz. He's outstanding. You know
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: who's had injuries to their defense that doesn't get talked
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: about enough. This Dallas team, a Dallas team that teams
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: have been able to move the ball on here towards
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: the end of the season because of those injuries. So
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: such a big number like this indoors perfect condition. Yeah,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: we know the deal. Dallas is gonna put up points, right,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: that's ceedee Lamb. Dak Combo probably the best of football
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: this yeason. I mean, I know Tyreek Hill had the
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: record with Tua, but it's like, anytime Dak needs those yards,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter if CD's doubled, He's gonna find seed and
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: it's gonna probably work out for him. So we totally
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: get that going into this. I just feel like we're
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: live the entire game. Even if we were down twenty
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: one to nothing, Chad, I'm still gonna be doing the
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: math in my head of like, Okay, we can still
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: get there because we have the seven and a half.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: So feel comfortable taking this big of a number on
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: our first time starter and Jordan Love and the playoffs,
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: and we know the deal. They're the youngest team in
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: the playoffs this year. We could easily get rolled in
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: this game just because that inexperienced. But I just think
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Laflora has been coaching at such a higher level and
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Jordan Loves is playing at such a high level. I
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: don't see them letting this game get away from I
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: just always see them being in it, So feel really
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: confident taking the seven and a half.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Check a couple keys that you that you pointed out
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: that I just want to expand on a little bit.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love and I listened to Raybond and Stuckey in
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast this morning and they were going
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: through their Sunday six pack and they both loved Green
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Bay plus seven and a half, and Raybond pointed out
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: that since November, Jordan Love sixty nine percent completion percentage,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty seven yards passing yards per game,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: seven yards per attempt, twenty one to three touchdown to
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: interception ratio, passer rating against man versus zone, and the
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Cowboys love to play man thirteen points better. So and
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: you also pointed out their pass rush. Everyone thinks, Okay,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Micah parsons, their password rush has actually been kind of
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: middle of the road because they've had a lot of
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: injuries and so they haven't been nearly as good. They're like,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: you know, Matt Mitchell likes to say, all says a
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: low steak kind of defense, right, because you've got Bland
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: in the secondary making these incredible interceptions and getting all
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: these pick sixes and you've got Micah Parsons who had
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: another sack over the weekend and instead a career high
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: for sacks this season. But in between those two there's
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: a lot of room to maneuver. And I think we
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: start liking the Packers a little bit more here. And
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: also the other thing you mentioned, you mentioned the floor
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: having a great season. Look at what this guy has
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: done with this roster that is so young and not
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: even having all of them, Like how often has Wigs
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: been out? How often has Jaden Reid been out? Hoff
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Christian Watson been out? And he has found a way
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: to get Jordan Love to improve every single week. Testament
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: to him going against a guy Mike McCarthy who, look,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: let's face it, he's just not a very good coach.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Like he's a good play caller, he's not good at
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: managing the clock. He doesn't make great decisions in game.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: That has cost the Cowboys year and year out in
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. I think it will cost him again in
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: these playoffs. You bet on this happening in the playoffs,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: So go pack Go.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And like I want people understand, if this number
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: was three four, I could be convinced to take the
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: Cowboys here, but me and Chad always knows there's always
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: going to be free extra points on the Cowboys because
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: there's such a public team. And it feels like here
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: this has been bumped up way too much. Like the books,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: keep it a seven and a half. I just will
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: never get it. And you know, we'll obviously look like
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: geniuses or idiots come Sunday, but this does feel like
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: they hung a bad number and they're gonna get punished
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: for it.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Look, I'm just really glad that the Packers as a
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: franchise found a quarterback because it had been a long
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: time since they really had someone to step in and
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: play at the level that Jordan Love is playing at.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Good Good for those fans.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Because don't panic yet, Chad. Wait, wait for a team
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: to get an off season to build up film against
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love, and we'll see how he does next year.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: They really deserve you know, that transition time was just
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: too hard for them. For eight weeks they had to
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: panic Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions. This was your
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Rams were at four, Rams were at three
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: and a half. You said, Simon says, get it at
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: three and a half. At three, it's a pass, which
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: is why you made it your Simon says, here's a
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: stat that haven't had the other day that I still
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: love home teams who missed the playoffs the prior year.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: So that's the Lions thirty and forty nine against the
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: spreading the playoffs over the last twenty years, So that
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: is the Lions. It's also the Texans when those teams
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: are favorites. That is just the Lions. They are nineteen
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: and forty thirty two percent against the spread the past
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: twenty years. So not much more to say about that.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: It's a it's a pass to me. At this number, I'd.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Still take the three. It's such a key number. But
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: we don't play for pushes here. If you missed the
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: three and a half, you want to be part of
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: the party, why not take the Rams money line? Like
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: you're already here, you might as well take it. You
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: missed the three and a half, you don't want to
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: live with a push, just grab the money line. Like
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: this just feels like a game that it's gonna go
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: down to me, it's gonna keep going down. Like a
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: couple of books around here in New Jersey that went
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: to two of them had that at two and a half,
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: which I was shocked to see. So the books, I
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: think usually when I want to take a position, they
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: usually they wouldn't move it that much because they would
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: actually believe in Detroit. But I think they're like the
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: most proser where it's like that'llo port injury is a
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: big deal, and I do think he's worth half a point,
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: which is crazy to say because he's a rookie tight end,
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: but he's been so important. I mean, Chad talked about it.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: He's their number two received, number two receiver this season
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: on third down plays, So I'm on, Sam Brown is incredible.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal. Now you can really shift her
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: coverage to him. You don't need to worry about this
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: outstanding tight end rookie. So yeah, the number I don't Again,
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: I'm looking in the app right now, most books are
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: still showing three. So those two and a halfs look
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: like they've they've disappeared. But that sounds right. Like Chad said,
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: it's like this number should be three. Technically, there is
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: no value right now at this point, but I just
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: love the rams in this spot so much, and Chad
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: already talked about it as well, that like you can
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: bet the public here, like you can bet with the public.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: It's okay in the wildcard round historically if you've been
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: doing it since We've been tracking it since what mid
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: two thousands of and it's like fifty three percent. That's
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: a really nice number for a twenty year sample size.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: So don't don't let it scay off that this is
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: no doubt the most public dog of the week. Like
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at our app right now. It's just all
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Rams money right now. So yeah, the fear is like
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: I said, I talked to a lot of people these
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: last forty eight hours. Only talk to two guys who
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: like the Lions here in this spot, and they think
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: that this RAMS team's inflated. I just wholeheartedly disagree. I
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: think every week they've improved. Chad talked about since Williams
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: come back, their identity has shifted so much. Like they
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: everything goes through I mean, you wouldn't believe it. Stafford
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: didn't pass for four thousand yards this season and he
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: didn't miss I mean he missed one game because he
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: saw out that last game. But that's how incredibly good
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Williams has been that they haven't needed Stafford to put
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: it all on their shoulders, they be able to run
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: the ball with him. So it's just people can tell
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: I'm all on this Rams team. They're my favorite team
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: for NFC for Super Bowl futures, and it all starts here.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: So obviously, if I'm betting their Super Bowl future, I
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna win this game, So no fear for me.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: I like the I'm on the money line here as well.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: It's just all in on this Rams team and the
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: Stafford led offense.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: That is an interesting angle and connection that people forget.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: If you're betting futures for a team that is a
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: bit of a longer shot, you might as well just
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: be betting their money line because you believe, you believe
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: they're gonna keep winning through the playoffs, and you're probably
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be getting pretty decent odds on that money line. Simon,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: we got one more game to talk about, Philadelphia Tampa.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa is a three point dog at home. But neither
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: side of this feels fox holy to me, So I'm
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: not sure how we're foxholing.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Well, we can do. We can either do the Chiefs
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: under or do your Texas book Texans book, which is like,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: I'm supportive, but you're You're like me, You're like, we
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: want the three.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I really want the three.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: We got a man up, though, I think we went
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: to the man up and just take the two and
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: All right, Then let's just foxhold it on the Texans
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: at two and a half, Like I'd rather that feels
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: more fox holy to me than taking the chiefs, under
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: which I think people are going to come around. So
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: go ahead, throw up the graphic, Tito. We're making the
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Texans plus two and a half our foxhole. That's what
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do. It's going to be me and Simon
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: together in the trenches of Houston. Don't forget the big
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: balls as the Green Bay Packers, which leaves phil Elfia Tampa.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know to do with this game. You know,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Baker has been playing practicing. The Eagles are so banged up.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: The lines moved a little bit, I think because there
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: might be questions about whether or not Baker was going
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: to play or how effective he would be. But now
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: it's a three. Everyone's going to want to chase this game.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: It's the Monday game. I have no interest in this game,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: and I have no opinion on this game.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: I got a priced right. I haven't actually had minus
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: three and a half Eagles modeled, but it's like you
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: factor in all the injuries the Eagles have the unknowns.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Three is a right number. The books like they opened
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: it at I think one and a half because they
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: were just like, Okay, let's see how the public and
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: the pros are going to view this game. They took
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: a position. They took the Eagles position. I already talked
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: about it. I think it's because of what Chad said
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: about Baker. It's like he hit a bum ankle, wasn't
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: walking right. Obviously, struggled in that game mightily against Carolina
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: with bad throws, really not being able to put weight
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: on that leg, and he had a couple scrambles when
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: he after he scrambled, he didn't look right in that game.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: He had a big scramble and then he just really
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: couldn't put a lot of weight on that leg. I
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: just watched him this week in practice. He looked all right,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: you stepping into his throats, he was putting weight on
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: the leg. He had a little scramble that I saw
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: in one video of some guy posted a f movie
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: outside the pocket, which is like, doesn't sound like much.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: But I want to see that stuff because, like Baker
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: talked about, it's like if the game's Sunday, you know
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: it's it's obviously different, but it is Monday night, Like
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: he gets a full eight days to heal from that injury.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: That is a big deal at this point in the season.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: So the books are priced this, right. We all know
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: the Eagles are a better team, right, Like, there's no
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: doubt the Eagles are a better team, but they've been
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: so bad now these last five six weeks you have
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: to throw it out. It's like, Okay, just because they're
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: the better team on paper, doesn't mean they the better
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: team right now. That's the biggest problem here. It's like
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: they're all offenses averaging twenty points per game these last
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: six weeks, while their defense is giving up over thirty
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: points per game. Like it's just gone bad. I know
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: that screwed a little bit because that Giants game where
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: they just got completely dominated, But it's like this team
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: as a whole, I mean, we've been all over We've
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: been fading them for weeks now, and that's the hardest
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: party where it's like I want to fade them, and
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: the books know that, and that's the problem where it's
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: like I don't really get the line movement because like
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: we just talked about the we know bakers in and
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: like this, I don't get by this number hasn' drop
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: back down to two. Two and a half just doesn't
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: make sense how she's holding that three. So it looks
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: like the Pros that's who they're gonna back, right, The
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: Pros are back in the Eagles, they're holding this number
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: up because every time they dips two and a half,
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: they're the ones moving it back up to three. So
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: pretty interesting. But I want to, honestly want to be
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: on the Bucks. Like there's just so many questions with
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, where as bad as this Bucks team is,
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: at least I know exactly what I'm getting here. But
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: the biggest thing here is I'm like I'm looking at
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: the weather app. It's supposed to be thunderstorms and really
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: heavy rains that Monday night game, and we all know
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: the Bucks aren't right a running the ball, right. The
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: success of the season's been through the air through Mike
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Evans and Godwin and the Eagles. I know they've been
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: the same team down the stretcher running the ball, but
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: like that's their bread and butter. At the core of
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: this team. The offensive line is what makes them so special,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Like they have such a great offensive line. Swift rested
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: last week. He's apparently full go this week in practice,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: so he will be back for this game. Up in
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: the air is still Smith even aj Brown is still
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: tinkling up in the air. They don't know if he's
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: guaranteed to play in this game as well. So it
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: the Eagles better hope this rains, because that's a big
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: advantage for them because you don't have your guys on
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: the outside and the Bucks do have their guys on
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: the outside. Like that's such a big discrepancy between these
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: two teams. And and Sydney Brown's out for the Eagles,
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: like they're they're starting safety. Like it's just so many
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: injuries to this team. So yeah, I just if you
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: see me in the morning, I know I told people
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: to take the Eagles on Tuesday just in case the
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: Baker injury was almost for real. The number is gonna move,
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: obviously that's changed now. Like I'm happy to buy that
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: position if I need to, But come Sunday, if this
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: does go stay at three or go to three and
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: a half. I probably will take it, and then Monday,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping it moves to four because, like Chad said,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: most of public should be chasing at this point, right
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: and they're going to come in on this Eagles team.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: You might be able to get four with this number.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: So if you want to bet this Bucks team, definitely
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: be patient. I could see the number rising as we
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: get closer to Monday.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Let's be patient. Money Line Underdog round Robin. I know
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: we want the Rams.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Let's just do three though, because it's.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, well we're not.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: We can't do I can't force in.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think we have five we Like I was,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: I was gonna limit Honestly, I was going to limit
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: it to two and let's see if we can force
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: in a third.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: To me, you gotta do Rams, you gotta do your Houston.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, interesting because I was going to say I was.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: I actually wasn't going to put Green Bay in there.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: I was going to do Rams, Houston and uh Tampa.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah that's fair.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: So let's do Rams, Houston and Tampa.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: One of the reason I want to put Houston is
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: because we already talked about that stat the rookie has
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: never beat the number one defense in the playoffs, and
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: I just feel like CJ is the ultimate unicorn. Like
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: everything he's done this year has been so rare. That's
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: that's a fun bet to make that something's ever happened before.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: There's always that one guy that comes wrong, our neo
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: from the matrix that changes everything, and CJ feels like
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: that guy, so that that is not agreement.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he he breaks all the rules here. So Houston
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: continues to be a team that we're going to be
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: that we're going to be backing Simon, can you make
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: part of your game day? Would you let a stranger
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: into your house to watch a game if they brought
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: two Little Caesars pizzas?
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you had me in the first half, but I'm
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: all in on that.
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: Of course.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: You would order online during our pizza pizza pre game
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: one hour before NFL games and get ready for some
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: pick the toppings you crave. All right, brother, are you
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: ready for this brand new motto I just invented After
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl all fans lust? So Ruth them on
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: with crazy crust. However, you order your pizza, you win.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
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  Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. As a reminder,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday Sunday if you're subscribing on YouTube.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to give us
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: a like or subscribe and subscribe to the Action Network
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: YouTube page. All right, if it had to be one,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: and I think you just said what it was your
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: favorite Super Bowl future right now?
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Rams, I'm almost positive before we came on there
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: were still fifty to one ble odds. And I know
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: how tough of a path they have to get there,
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: But I already talked about it. People like it just
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: lines up right for them. Where of all the teams
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: in the NFC, they're the only ones that have already
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: faced this forty nine ers team multiple times. They know
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: what the forty Niners like to do. Stafford is a
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: veteran quarterback. You won't let the moment get too big
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: for him. And a Stafford versus party kind of game.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be feeling pretty confident back in Stafford especially,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be a you know what, what do you think?
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: You think he's gonna be a five to six point
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: dog in that game. It makes sense why they have
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: such big odds at this point, just because the road
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: to get there is going to be insane. But we
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: talk all the time, these veteran quarterbacks with these teams
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: that people don't believe in, They can go on these
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: type of runs. You just have to get hot at
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: the right time, like Joe Flacco shown us right. Joe
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: Flacco got hot at the right time took his team
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: to a Super Bowl. Sam could be said here with
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: the Stafford and the scroup of receivers and Williams are
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: running back. It's just there's such a good team that
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: if the forty nine ers weren't hyped up so much,
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: this would be what thirty to one, twenty five to one,
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: it feels like. But just because everyone has the four
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: nits so far ahead of them, they're just getting no respect.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: So yeah, fifty to one, give me the Rams.
• 47:07
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  Speaker 1: out of here. Evan Abrams, who nails all the stats
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  Speaker 1: and trends, our director or research share at the Action Network.
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  Speaker 1: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: We're finished.
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: Let's talk about unders for a second, because they're always
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: in fashion. So since twenty eighteen, unders have hitted fifty
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: three percent in the regular season, in the playoffs fifty
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: nine percent in the last twenty years unders fifty one
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: thirty five in the wildcard round also fifty nine percent,
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: So you do get that jump and it's pretty consistent.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: That makes me feel really good that we're on the Cleveland,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Texan under and the Kansas City, Miami under.
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: Kansas City one's gonna be fascinating because it's just it's
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: lower than it was. We're going to see if it
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: goes under the close versus the open. But sixteen and
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: three to the under from a Hoomes home starts crazy.
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: You're gonna like this one, Chad and Simon so trendy
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: public dogs if you bet on NFL playoff underdogs and
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: the line shrinks, So going from plus four to plus three,
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: you're in great shape. Playoff underdogs with a positive line
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: move just under seventy percent against a spread in the
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: last twenty years. Six game sample size, and that's against
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: the closing number, not even the opener. The one team
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: that fits that is the most. It's the biggest public
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: side in all six games, and that's the Rams. So
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: no sans ram. As long as that sticks at three,
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: we're in good shape. Open at three and a half,
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: so getting some RAMS love. You guys mentioned this as well,
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: Dolphins cold weather outdoors. It's just worth putting through the
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: facts here. Under fifty degrees outdoors, they've won just fifteen
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: of their fifty seven games last twenty years. That's twenty
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: six percent. They are two for their last twenty one
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: outdoors under fifty degrees.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: Not great.
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: Under forty degrees, they've lost nine straight. They've won eight
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: of their last twenty seven. Not great. Tua played eleven
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: times against winning teams on the road. He is two
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: and nine straight up, covered just three times, so the
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: situation with the Miami and two together not great. And
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: then finally the Cowboys so since ninety seven, covered three
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: of their sixteen playoff games, DAK one in five against
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: the spread, eighty fifth of eighty eight quarterbacks against in
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: the playoffs last twenty years. And this is just a
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: fun one from Jordan Love. So if he wins this game,
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: he joined a very exclusive club. He'd win his first
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: playoff game as an underdog of a touchdowner. More, only
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: ten qbs have done that in the Super Bowl layer
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: the last meeting Marcus Mariota in twenty eighteen and Tim
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: Tebow in twenty twelve.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: So maybe you can join the Club for Jordan.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Love very good stuff, Evan. I liked every trend you
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: gave because it was in favor of every bet that we've.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: Made, work on it.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Thank you for the confirmation bias to recap. Here is
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: our Foxhall. It's Houston plus two and a half. It
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: is Simon says is the Rams plus three and a half.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Our exact decision, Buffalo minus ten. The big Balls bet
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: of the week Green Bay plus seven and a half
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: are Round Robin the Rams, Houston Tampa. All right, before
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: we get out of here, as promised, here is our
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: interview with the Favorite Contest first place winner, Jesse Colberg.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: All right, we are privileged, honored, overjoyed to have the
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: winner of the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro football
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: pick'em contest joining us right now. The guy is forty
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: grand richer. He hit seventy one percent against the spread
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: during the twenty twenty three football season. He beat twelve
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: thousand entrants to win the money. His name is Jesse Goldberg.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: He's joining us now on the Favorite Jesse, Welcome. How
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: are you feeling today?
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: I'm feeling good.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: It's been a crazy few days. Get a lot of
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: text from friends and family. They couldn't really believe it either.
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: I definitely couldn't believe it.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: Help me what it feels like. It's Sunday night. Where
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: were you? What were the circumstances when you realized you
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: were going to win the money?
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: Wife knew to leave me alone the entire day, that
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: I'm like miserable to be around, but more so I
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: just I wouldn't really want to talk to anybody. So
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: she had a great day. She went over to like
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: her best friends, saw a baby, went to her family's house,
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: went to our other friends who were having people over
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: for the Eagles, and I decided not to go. I
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: kept to myself all day. I wasn't freaking out, maybe
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: as much as it would be, but just needed to
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: pay attention to every game. And then the nighttime, I
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: obviously had the Bills game, and Josh Allen did everything
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: in his power to try to not cover that game,
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: so I was kind of freaking out the first half.
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: There were definitely a few this is over, I definitely
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: didn't win moments, But then if they covered, went upstairs
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: told her that I won that game, so I was
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: pretty sure that I wasn't completely positive with the tie breakers,
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: but I thought I had a pretty good chance, so yeah,
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: I went and updated. It was a pretty awesome feeling.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Where are you from.
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: I'm from Philadelphia area, just moved back to outside of
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: phil it it's called media shout Out Delca.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: How did you get into bedding?
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not like a.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: Huge gambler, I would say, but I listened to like
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of fantasy podcasts, a lot of Action Network podcasts,
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: heard about the contest, figured it's free, like why not?
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: Answer took it from there.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Did you have an overarching philosophy for the season.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: I developed a process over this season, and it's definitely
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: not as probably like analytical as people might think. I
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: think week three, I went five for five and now
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: the tiebreaker, so I won some money that week, and
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: then I think I went like five for five the
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: next week, four for five the next week, and five
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: for five the next week, and then I was like,
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: all right, I have to kind of start really like
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: paying attention to this. I think I had somewhat of
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: a chance. Process wise, I would look at the numbers,
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: like right when the contest open. Usually I would lock
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: in like five games that just off the top of
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: my head I liked. I listened to Your Guys podcast
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: Sunday night and then Tuesdays. There's a few other Action
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: Network podcasts that I would listen to see what like
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: I agreed with, see what I might disagree with but
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: not necessarily want to like be on the other side
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: of That's my process. It's not the most analytical, but
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: just kind of taking information from like a bunch of
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: different people.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: I would say, sure, we are all of us fuckers
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: breaking down tape, analyzing numbers, putting data into spreadsheets, and
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: there's just schmuck living in media. Yeah, exactly, know fucking
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: Delco who's like, exactly, eyeball some of these numbers. All right,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: So take me to Sunday. You avoided Carolina.
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: Carolina. I just knew that they were the quote unquote
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: sharp or right side. I just could not bet on
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: them again and bet on Bryce Young for forty thousand dollars,
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: like it just it wasn't happening Atlanta. Kind of the
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: same thing with Desmond Britter and then watching that Atlanta
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: game and I don't know if you saw the play
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: where I think it was be John Robinson. It's just
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: like wide opening the end zone on fourth down Desmond.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, Jesse, I saw it because we were on Atlanta.
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: All right, Sorry, I should leave the Atlanta thing alone.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Sorry about that, but yeah, So basically I didn't want
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: to put forty thousand dollars in the hands of that
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: investment reader.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Well, somehow you ended up with the forty thousand dollars.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: You ended up being the wise guy who avoided Atlanta,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: who avoided Carolina, played the narrative, realized that Denver having
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: a backup quarterback was not a good thing. All the
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: mistakes that me and Simon made as the stewards of
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: the contest you seem to avoid. Jesse Goldberg, last question,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: what are you going to do with the money?
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: I'll think of something and keep you posted.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Here's a little bit of advice. Since your wife was
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: so kind, so patient, so indulgent, leaving you alone to
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: wallow in your anxiety, at least get something nice for her.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: That's a good idea.
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: I told her she should have waited a few weeks
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: for a Christmas gift.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: Well, it always comes back around. It's never a bad
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: time to get a nice gift for your bride. Jesse Goldberg,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: congratulations on winning the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Football pick'em Contest. You are the inaugural champion. You will
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: get a banner in the Action Network offices in New York.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: We will create a cup and engrave your name on it.
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: Thank you, Jesse Goldberg, Thank you guys, and thanks to
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: bet thirty six y five Okay.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods,
• 56:28
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• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until we see you guys. Sunday
• 56:34
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• 56:38
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• 56:42
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• 56:45
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• 56:55
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• 56:59
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• 57:03
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