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Bonus Episode - Reaction To Trump's Actions In Venezuela · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: I thought i'd provide a quick addendum, if you will,
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  Speaker 1: to my first episode of twenty twenty six, the Chuck
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  Speaker 1: podcast came out. I had Jonathan Martin and we actually
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  Speaker 1: talked about what could come next and sort of anticipated
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  Speaker 1: that something was going to happen sooner rather than later
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  Speaker 1: in Venezuela. Well, little did we know when we were
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  Speaker 1: taping on Friday, January tewod that the sooner was even
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  Speaker 1: sooner than we thought. So look, I just wanted to
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  Speaker 1: get a few thoughts. These are the thoughts I would
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  Speaker 1: have shared had we take the episode sooner. If you
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  Speaker 1: must know, I am traveling a bit this week. When
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  Speaker 1: you have kids in college, you have a little extra
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  Speaker 1: time for vacation and time spent with the family, and
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: it's as an empty nester, it's kind of nice to
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  Speaker 1: have my kids are out for an extra a week
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  Speaker 1: or two than we used to have back in the
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  Speaker 1: grade school in high school days. But enough about my family,
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  Speaker 1: and let's stick to what we just saw. Look, I
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  Speaker 1: think this is a I think the way to view
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  Speaker 1: this is is a few ways. One is this is
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, with who's always been an ends justifies the
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  Speaker 1: maids kind of guy. He's never been one that thinks
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  Speaker 1: that the rules apply to him, whether that's in business,
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  Speaker 1: whether that's in American culture, or whether that's in the
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  Speaker 1: American presidency. He doesn't want to care about constitutional norms,
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  Speaker 1: separation of powers, advising, you know, getting the advice and
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  Speaker 1: consent of Congress. He has always viewed that as as
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  Speaker 1: almost in his way and in some ways just getting Maduro,
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  Speaker 1: you know, in his there's no doubt in his mind
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  Speaker 1: he views it just go figure out a way to
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  Speaker 1: get Maduro and we'll come up with a legal justification
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  Speaker 1: after the fact. And in some ways that's what this
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  Speaker 1: feels like, right you saw a Secretary State market Rubio
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  Speaker 1: out there saying, well, no, no, no, this is not
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  Speaker 1: a military operation. This was a law enforcement operation, and
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  Speaker 1: the military was only being used in that. So it's
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  Speaker 1: that the parallel that Marco Rubio kind of wants to
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  Speaker 1: draw here is more in line with what is how
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  Speaker 1: the US military was used to get Manuel Noriega back
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  Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty nine, and Panama was essentially extracted from Panama,
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  Speaker 1: brought to the United States to be brought to justice,
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  Speaker 1: rather than as a rock. But of course I think
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  Speaker 1: the American political mind immediately a recency bias goes more
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  Speaker 1: to a rock than it goes to Panama. And especially
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  Speaker 1: when the president over the weekend said we're going to
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  Speaker 1: run Venezuela for the time being, and the fact that
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  Speaker 1: there didn't seem to be a plan in place to
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  Speaker 1: either recognize the rightful winner of the last presidential election,
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  Speaker 1: which wasn't Maduro, but the fact that that is not
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  Speaker 1: the immediate decision that the United States made sort of
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  Speaker 1: raises some questions, what is our plan here? Are we
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  Speaker 1: going to have is Marco Rubio the new Viceroy of Venezuela,
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  Speaker 1: Will it be somebody else? Is They're going to be
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  Speaker 1: essentially a the way we ran a rock between the
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  Speaker 1: fall of Saddam and the holding of the first elections
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  Speaker 1: before there was a transition there. These are questions that
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  Speaker 1: haven't really been answered yet and how they're answered. I
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  Speaker 1: think it's going to have a lot of domestic political
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  Speaker 1: ramifications here, so and I think that's what you have
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  Speaker 1: to take this story in a couple of in a
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  Speaker 1: couple of ways. First of all, you know, Trump arranged
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: in syndrome is a real thing, and it is a
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  Speaker 1: virus that actually doesn't just infect the left, it infects
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  Speaker 1: the right. Right. Essentially, you have people that believe anything
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  Speaker 1: Trump does must be illegal and must be opposed on
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  Speaker 1: the left, and you have some on the right that
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  Speaker 1: anything Trump does, if Trump does it, it must be
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  Speaker 1: legal and it must be supported. Act of the matter is,
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  Speaker 1: as we all know, the hell of a lot of
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  Speaker 1: nuance in between those two situations. Madurero's a bad guy.
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  Speaker 1: Maduro is somebody that the Biden administration wanted to figure
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  Speaker 1: out if they could get him arrested in some other way,
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  Speaker 1: and they It does sound as if we'll probably find
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  Speaker 1: out that there were at least some plans during the
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  Speaker 1: Biden era, at least on the table. Maybe Biden decided
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  Speaker 1: not to say yes to them that looked a lot
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  Speaker 1: like this, this military extraction that took place, which was,
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  Speaker 1: by the way, tactically highly effective and pretty impressive when
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  Speaker 1: you look at it, because of how few casualties there were,
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  Speaker 1: how few blood was spilled. I mean, that's not an
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  Speaker 1: insignificant outcome, and I think the Delta Force ought to
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  Speaker 1: be praised for its ability to do its job. The
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  Speaker 1: question is whether this was done within the legalities of
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  Speaker 1: our constitution and whether, forget that, whether this is going
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  Speaker 1: to enhance America as leader of the free world or
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  Speaker 1: hurt the ability of America to advocate and spread freedom
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  Speaker 1: and democracy. I think it's fascinating to see some of
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  Speaker 1: the Trump administration try to make an America first argument,
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  Speaker 1: essentially for Western Hemisphere imperialism, that, hey, the Western hemisphere.
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  Speaker 1: You heard Marko Rubia say it, the Western Hemisphere is
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  Speaker 1: not the Middle East, and he all but seemed to say,
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  Speaker 1: if you know, we should be he seemed to advocate
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  Speaker 1: that America should be more involved in the in the
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  Speaker 1: politics of different countries in the Western hemisphere. And perhaps
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  Speaker 1: he's right. Look, as somebody grew up in Miami, this
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  Speaker 1: is this is a front and center topic of conversation.
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  Speaker 1: This is a front and center issue, which, by the way,
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  Speaker 1: I think is why perhaps Donald Trump got so sucked
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  Speaker 1: into the right. Look, you can't ignore the oil part, right,
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  Speaker 1: if Haiti had oil deposits, would we be more involved
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  Speaker 1: with trying to find stability in Haiti? I think we
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  Speaker 1: know the answer to that. If there you know, if
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  Speaker 1: if there was oil off the coast of Cuba that
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  Speaker 1: was worth trying to drill for, would we have been
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  Speaker 1: more aggressive with Cuba years ago, decades ago? I think
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  Speaker 1: that's also possible. So it I don't think that can
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  Speaker 1: be lost on any of this debate. But it certainly
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  Speaker 1: seems as if Marco Rubio sees this as as the
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  Speaker 1: beginning of something, not a one off decision. And once
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  Speaker 1: you get Maduro, he seemed to all but threaten the
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  Speaker 1: leadership of Cuba, saying, you guys are next, even to
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  Speaker 1: a lesser extent you had you've had President Trump indicate
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  Speaker 1: that the president of Columbia ought to be careful there.
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  Speaker 1: Now it is worth noting Colombia is actually going to
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  Speaker 1: be holding its own new presidential election. I'll be electing
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  Speaker 1: a new president in June of this year, well June
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  Speaker 1: if there's a runoff, May if there's not, and it's
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  Speaker 1: probably going to be a close election. I think what's
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  Speaker 1: going to be interesting is Columbia is going to be
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  Speaker 1: a fascinating bell Weather. I think about American interventionism. Before this,
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  Speaker 1: I think there was a lot of experts on Columbia's
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  Speaker 1: politics seem to indicate that the more pro Western, pro
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  Speaker 1: American side had the upper hand this time at the
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  Speaker 1: leftists led by the current president. You know, the economy
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  Speaker 1: is not so great. People don't feel a little bit
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  Speaker 1: less secure that they were waning. Now, is there going
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  Speaker 1: to be a Trump boomerang effect? You know, look at
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  Speaker 1: what happened in Brazil. You know that the current president
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  Speaker 1: la its popularity was waning. Then Trump went after Brazil
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  Speaker 1: over Bolsonaro and their banning of Bolsonaro ever from running
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  Speaker 1: in the next presidential election, which means Bolsonaro's son will
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  Speaker 1: be running against Lula in the next presidential election, which also,
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  Speaker 1: by the way, happens to take a plays in twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty six, but Lula's popularity surged when Trump essentially put
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  Speaker 1: these huge tariffs on Brazil in response to the punishment
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  Speaker 1: of former President Bolsonaro. Do you see a similar effect
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  Speaker 1: in Colombia or does the strengthened American presence in Venezuela
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  Speaker 1: strengthen the more pro American side in Colombia. The point
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  Speaker 1: is is that I think if you're looking for a
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  Speaker 1: small b democratic bell weather on how American a more
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  Speaker 1: robust American presence in Latin America plays, the Columbia presidential
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  Speaker 1: election might be a pretty good bell weather to follow
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  Speaker 1: for what it's worth. In the region, Actually quite a
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  Speaker 1: few interesting elections in twenty twenty six in Latin America.
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  Speaker 1: You got Costa Rica in February, and if there's a
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  Speaker 1: runof it would be in April. You have Peru holds
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  Speaker 1: its election in April and there needs to be a
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  Speaker 1: run off at June. By the way, Peru, and you
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: want to talk about Messi politics, they're going to be
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  Speaker 1: potentially electing their ninth president in ten years. They've had
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  Speaker 1: an impeachment and now stay all sorts of mess. Polarization
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  Speaker 1: isn't just an American product, either we've exported around the
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  Speaker 1: world or globalization has essentially helped fuel polarization around the
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  Speaker 1: world with a little bit of social media involved. And
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  Speaker 1: then you have hate is going to potentially try to
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  Speaker 1: hold presidential elections in August, but it's unclear whether there's
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  Speaker 1: if it's even safe enough to do that, if there's
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  Speaker 1: enough stability, and if any election will even be accepted
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  Speaker 1: by the gangs, if you will. That run quort of
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  Speaker 1: prints these days. But I single out Haiti there for
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  Speaker 1: a second, because it's interesting to see America's interests in
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  Speaker 1: Venezuela and Cuba, but essentially America wanting to let every
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  Speaker 1: other country worry about Haiti. Right, We've been trying to
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  Speaker 1: bring the Kenyans in to manage Haiti. We kind of
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  Speaker 1: want to wash our hands of it. And again, to
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  Speaker 1: be a bit starky if they were if there was
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  Speaker 1: a major oil deposit off the coast of Haiti, would
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: we have a different wou the Trump administration have a
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  Speaker 1: different posture when it comes to Haiti's politics. So look,
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  Speaker 1: I do think that the real political fallout from this,
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  Speaker 1: this is the twenty twenty six mid terms for Trump, right,
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  Speaker 1: it's a pretty simple campaign that Democrats can now run,
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  Speaker 1: which is he's off on these adventures overseas imperialism in
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  Speaker 1: Latin America, worried more about oil companies in Venezuela than
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: fighting then fighting for lower electric bills here in the
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  Speaker 1: United States. He's more worried about renaming the Kennedy Center
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: after himself rather than in lowering the cost of living.
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  Speaker 1: He's more worried about enriching his family businesses rather than
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: helping your helping you find cheaper healthcare. So in that sense,
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  Speaker 1: there's nothing about this that's going to be good politics
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  Speaker 1: for Donald Trump domestically outside of South Florida. And in fact,
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  Speaker 1: there's a part of me that thinks that that Trump
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  Speaker 1: has become, you know, because he spends so much time
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  Speaker 1: at Marta Lago, because Marco Rubio is such an important
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  Speaker 1: foreign policy advisor to him Secretary of State, national security advisor,
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  Speaker 1: but really did become his sort of unofficial Latin American
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  Speaker 1: advisor during the first term. Your roub, you know, and
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  Speaker 1: if you have an agenda to try to overthrow Ma Duro,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: to try to overthrow the regiment in Cuba, getting to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Trump at mar A Lago or getting too Trump at
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  Speaker 1: his golf club in Doral, which is essentially dereal Aezuela.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Doral is a community is within Miami Dade County, very
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  Speaker 1: close to the Miami International Airport, and this decision is
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: being met with cheers. People are ecstatic. I mean, you
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  Speaker 1: see the South Florida Democratic politicians are trying very are
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  Speaker 1: not to be critical other than hey, it would have
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  Speaker 1: been nice if we're informed, and can you keep us
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  Speaker 1: more informed? And what's the plan going forward? One thing
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  Speaker 1: that many a great power in history has learned is
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: it's easy to topple an adversary. It is harder to
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: replace one. It is harder to replace a dictator with
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: a democratic elected leader that takes I mean, look at
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  Speaker 1: Iraq today. It is still not a very stable democracy.
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  Speaker 1: It hasn't fallen yet. Maybe it won't fall Maybe it'll
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: get strengthened because Iran falls and the spring will and
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: then we have actual democracy that percolates in Iran, and
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  Speaker 1: who knows what that has an impact in Iraq. But
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  Speaker 1: the fact is Iraq has been a fledgling democracy now
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  Speaker 1: for some twenty years. Will it be that long or
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  Speaker 1: more with Venezuela. And if democracy doesn't take right away
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  Speaker 1: in Venezuela, how long are we going to oversee it?
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  Speaker 1: I can tell you this, there will not be patients
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  Speaker 1: in Americans for this. There never is. And so ultimately,
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  Speaker 1: I think this is a case of we've got short
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  Speaker 1: termism versus long termism, and it's been the case of
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  Speaker 1: Latin America forever, which is what feels good in the
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  Speaker 1: short term usually costs us in the long term. I
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: could argue that we have had that we are still
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  Speaker 1: paying a price for bad interventions in Latin America that
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: go back to the nineteen tens twenties, goes back to
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  Speaker 1: the Spanish American War the nineteen fifties. And while perhaps
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: our policy towards Latin America may change every four eight years,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the resentments towards American either neglect or imperialism. It's always
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: been like one extreme or the other when it comes
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  Speaker 1: to the United States, those don't go away even when
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  Speaker 1: we have a new direction or a new president. I
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  Speaker 1: hope this leads to a better debate about what our
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: role should be leading though Western Hemisphere. And I'm not
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  Speaker 1: sure we can count on a social media algorithm driven
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: debate to create the space for that. But we need
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: to have this debate, and we need to be better
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: leaders and better stewards of the Western Hemisphere. A few
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: other things to think about when it comes to this intervention.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: If we believe the Western hemisphere is our sphere of influence,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: does this mean that Trump is tacitly sort of washing
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: his hands of Russia's of Ukraine with Russia? Does it
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: mean we are not going to have the backs of
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Taiwan if China decides, hey, it's in our sphere of influence,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: leave us alone. I think those are fair questions to ask.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: It doesn't help our reputation around the world, doesn't help
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: with our reputation with our supposed allies, that we aren't
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: practicing what we're preaching when it comes to the Russians
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: and the Chinese. And I think that's that is something
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: that again a short term victory could end up creating
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: a long term problem. But one thing is certain, this
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: is going to be continue to be a very aggressive
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Trump presidency. He is somebody that prefers to act, prefers
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: to duo. You know, he never seems to ask why,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: he seems to ask why not? And I'll end with
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: this thought. The fact that this went so well tactically.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: There are quite a few entities within the national security
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: community that believe they can take out a leader, that
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: believe they have a plan that could sort of maybe
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: take out the supreme leader of a Rah or take
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: out the leadership of Cuba, and they have a military
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: plan to do it. The fact that this went well,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: the fact that Solamani, the assassination a Haim did not
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: lead to something that many people had feared. The fact
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: that American intervention in Iran this year didn't lead two
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: bigger problems, is likely to embolden Donald Trump to take
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: more risks. And that's something it's you know, it's hard
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: to price in at the moment. But if he thinks
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: this is easy and in his mind, dealing with Irana
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Maduro has so far, in his mind, been easier than
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: all the armchair generals had said to him, then don't
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: be surprised if we try something even more adventurous. He
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: gets tod talked into some things that are even more
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: risky for the United States in the long term. All right,
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  Speaker 1: So with that, I will have a full schedule of
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast coming in the next few days, but I
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: thought I would offer up this quick addendum since I
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  Speaker 1: happened to miss the taping window when this broke out.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, and until I upload again.