Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Jimmy Carter, Former US President Dies at 100

Transcript

Jimmy Carter, Former US President Dies at 100 · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card playing Android
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: I want to bring back in David Weston, host of
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Wall Street Week, to talk about the legacy of President Carter.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: And you know, we talked a little about his four
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: years in office, but I think where he really made
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: his mark was after that. He won the Nobel Peace Prize.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: You mentioned the Camp David Accords. He worked towards peace
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: for the rest of his life. What are the standout
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: accomplishments achievements.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: It's interesting you mentioned the Nobel Peace Prize, which was
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: actually for what he did after lift office, not for
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: the Camp David Accords. One might have thought he might
• 0:52
  Speaker 4: have gotten for that. Actually was for what happened afterwards,
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: because as you know, he set up the Carter Center
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: and really traveled the world a policing election, making sure
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: democracy was succeeding, also fighting for human rights and of
• 1:03
  Speaker 4: course for diseases like in Sub Saharan Africa. He was
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: really in the vanguard of that, so he did a
• 1:10
  Speaker 4: huge amount. And then of course there's habitat for humanity
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: in the United States where he would go out and
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: build houses. A really extraordinary period post presidency.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Something I've been thinking about a lot over the last
• 1:20
  Speaker 5: twenty four hours is some of the things that happened
• 1:23
  Speaker 5: at that time. For example, you mentioned Paul Vulker leading
• 1:26
  Speaker 5: the FED really bringing down inflation in a really aggressive way,
• 1:31
  Speaker 5: something Carter was very of course and supportive and needed
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: to happen. Did happen painful choice at the time. Do
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: you think choosing policy over politics would happen in that
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: kind of a manner.
• 1:42
  Speaker 6: That's a great question.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: Certainly he did do that, and a lot of people
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: really say that's why he got beaten so badly by
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: Ronald Reagan, because he was very principled. Whatever you think
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: about his policies, he was a very principled man, and
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: he would follow policy no matter what, even with Paul Volker.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: When Paul Vulker said, you know, we're going to really
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: run into a recession, he said, I'll handle the politics,
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: you handled the economy, And he really backed him on that,
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: knowing that he would pay a very steep price he
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: started to did have we seen that since then? I'm
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: not sure. I mean, it's fairly hard to find true
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: profiles and courage these days, I would say, and I'm
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: saying that for both Democrats and Republicans.
• 2:19
  Speaker 6: It's hard to find that.
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: Right even in today's Republican party. If you were to
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: go against the grain, your primary seat is being threatened already,
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: So I don't know that that could happen.
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: Well, that's true, but I would say this is getting
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: into politics. But I think there's a version of the
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: Democratic side too, where you had Joe Biden go in
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: and become president and it seemed to trim his sales
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: because of his concerns with the left wing of the party.
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: So you know, I think that to Song said he
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: was hemmed in by that as well. So I'm afraid
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: things have evolved. But Carter was sort of a transitional figure.
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, let's be frank Gerald. Ford lost him by
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: a narrow margin, in large part because he pardoned President
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: Nixon and so he came in. He was from no where.
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: He was an outsider, maybe our first outsider as president,
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: because his presidensor has all been insiders. Maybe in that
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: way he led the path. Wall Street Journal wrote about
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: this today, maybe led the path toward to Donald Trump.
• 3:11
  Speaker 7: I think one of the legacies of President Carter is
• 3:14
  Speaker 7: his post presidential career, which was so rich and so diverse,
• 3:19
  Speaker 7: and it almost kind of set the template for some
• 3:21
  Speaker 7: of the other presidents. How do I spend my post
• 3:23
  Speaker 7: presidential years, you know, having my centers and trying to
• 3:27
  Speaker 7: you know, be active and constructive and it. You know,
• 3:31
  Speaker 7: certainly President Carter did that as well as anybody.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: No think.
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: I think he did change the nature of post presidency.
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: I think is exactly right, Paul. And certainly we saw
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: with Bill Clinton that happened, George Herbert Walker Bush for
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: that happened even George W. Bush, who doesn't get as
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: much attention for it. He's done a lot of good
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: with his Presidential Library and his center as well, and
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: has really devoted himself to doing good things and using
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: their status to really accomplish things around the world. And
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: I think Carter did change the entire nature of what
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: happens after your president.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: All right, David Weston, host of Wall Street Week, thanks
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: very much for joining us on the legacy of Jimmy Carter.
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: What can we expect from Wall Street Week coming up
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: on this Friday.
• 4:11
  Speaker 6: Okay, So we're going to.
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: Take a look forward into what we're seeing in twenty
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: twenty five and what the biggest issues are that we're
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: going to have, and so we're going to try to
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: set that out, to set the table, as it were.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: And then I'm going to get on the road and
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: go out to visit oil fields in the middle of winter.
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: Cool.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm in with you on Wyoming out of Wyoming
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: to report on methane.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: I would like to go to Wyoming right now too.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: I feel like it's a great time to go to Wyoming.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: I think you could go to Jackson Hall, Jackson Hole.
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I just stop in Jackson Hall, then I
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: drive for a couple hours outside of Jackson Hole.
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: David, thank you so very much for joining us. Of course,
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: on the legacy of Jimmy Carter. We're looking for to
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: your Wall Street Week. Of course, everyone is taking out
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: their playbook for twenty twenty five. It's going to set
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: up to be a difficult one, a lot of questions
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: around which industries will succeed.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: Otto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 5:14
  Speaker 7: Let's bring in Claudia Slam. She's a New Century Advisor's
• 5:17
  Speaker 7: chief economists, former Federal Reserve economists as well, and a
• 5:21
  Speaker 7: good friend of Bloomberg. Claudia, let's think about twenty twenty five.
• 5:25
  Speaker 7: I mean, I've got an economy that I think is
• 5:28
  Speaker 7: you know, kind of puts it along pretty darn well.
• 5:31
  Speaker 7: I got inflation that well, I'd like it to be
• 5:32
  Speaker 7: a little bit lower. The Fed would like it to
• 5:34
  Speaker 7: be a little bit lower. It's reasonable the labor market,
• 5:37
  Speaker 7: people who want a job generally have a job. They're
• 5:39
  Speaker 7: getting some wage increases. What are you telling your clients
• 5:42
  Speaker 7: about twenty twenty five in this economy?
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Don't be complacent.
• 5:48
  Speaker 8: I mean these, as you said, if we could keep
• 5:51
  Speaker 8: it as it is right now, largely, this would be
• 5:54
  Speaker 8: another great year ahead of us. You know, we've been
• 5:56
  Speaker 8: surprised at how well the past two years have gone,
• 5:58
  Speaker 8: particularly when you think about both on how the consumers
• 6:01
  Speaker 8: have held up, uh and that, but that doesn't have
• 6:05
  Speaker 8: to keep going. So what we really want people to
• 6:08
  Speaker 8: focus on are what like the blind spots right what
• 6:12
  Speaker 8: could go wrong? Where who isn't getting enough attention? And
• 6:16
  Speaker 8: I think one area, you know, if I had to
• 6:18
  Speaker 8: maybe point some FED officials to a blind spot, I
• 6:20
  Speaker 8: think they showed a lot of complacency in their last
• 6:24
  Speaker 8: summary of economic projections on how well the labor market
• 6:27
  Speaker 8: would continue to hold up. You know what we saw
• 6:30
  Speaker 8: them kind of write down the typical.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Official was something that basically has.
• 6:34
  Speaker 8: The unemployment rates sticking out where it is right now
• 6:37
  Speaker 8: for the next three years. That's a pretty remarkable and
• 6:41
  Speaker 8: frankly not would be very unusual path to the labor market.
• 6:46
  Speaker 8: And that's and yet there was all kinds of concerns
• 6:48
  Speaker 8: about inflation and the answer to round inflation. But I
• 6:50
  Speaker 8: think I keep I'm still concerned that there are things
• 6:53
  Speaker 8: in the labor market, while good, don't quite look like
• 6:57
  Speaker 8: sustainable and that's where the problems can come in.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: And so that's that's.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: One way audio. So if I ask which is a
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: bigger risk a weakening labor market or stubborn inflation, you're
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: going with the former rather than the latter.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Inflation's fine right now.
• 7:14
  Speaker 8: I mean, we are really not that far from two percent,
• 7:17
  Speaker 8: and we've seen a lot of encouraging signs under the
• 7:20
  Speaker 8: hood that this we are getting to this last mile
• 7:22
  Speaker 8: on inflation.
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: But right now, before tariffs, that's before we deep work,
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: before millions of workers, that's before Donald Trump comes into office.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: So things could change drastically after January twentieth.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, they could change drastically.
• 7:37
  Speaker 8: And I think it's appropriate that we have had a
• 7:40
  Speaker 8: very deep conversation about the policies that have been put
• 7:43
  Speaker 8: on the table. There have been a lot of policies
• 7:45
  Speaker 8: put on the table, and it's really important to have
• 7:47
  Speaker 8: this conversation and talk about some of their potential pitfalls
• 7:50
  Speaker 8: and maybe we won't see all of them put into place,
• 7:52
  Speaker 8: and that probably would be a good thing, uh, for
• 7:55
  Speaker 8: the economy. And yet, you know, kind of taking for
• 7:58
  Speaker 8: granted the good stuff that we've got going in the
• 8:00
  Speaker 8: economy that's a little more nuts and bolts, like the
• 8:04
  Speaker 8: labor market functioning, and just saying, oh, well, that'll just
• 8:07
  Speaker 8: keep going, that's all fine, it's in a good place.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's a real that could be a real mistake.
• 8:13
  Speaker 8: In terms of because the labor market in particular is
• 8:16
  Speaker 8: always and has been the past few year, is such
• 8:19
  Speaker 8: a lynchpin to this amazing period of a big disinflation.
• 8:26
  Speaker 8: Growth has stayed strong and unemployment has stayed relatively low,
• 8:30
  Speaker 8: you know, and that's something we want to keep going.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: And I don't think that's to just be taken for granted.
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: I think I'm very unpopular for asking this question repeatedly.
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: I know, you got to look at all the risks,
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: right and if you have to think about potentially inflationary
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: policies and sticky areas of inflation next year, and worries
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: about growth as well, especially if you have kind of
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: a fiscal appetite to pull back. How big of an
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: issue with stagflation or big of a world whe is it?
• 9:04
  Speaker 8: There are absolutely paths we could go down where we
• 9:07
  Speaker 8: end up in a stagflationary environment.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: We're good ways from that point.
• 9:12
  Speaker 8: Because again we're starting from a well above trend growth
• 9:15
  Speaker 8: and inflation is relatively low. It's not to do percent,
• 9:20
  Speaker 8: but it's relatively low. But there are absolutely paths we
• 9:23
  Speaker 8: could go on that are uh could get us a stagflation.
• 9:27
  Speaker 8: And the thing about stagflation is, you know, we talked
• 9:28
  Speaker 8: about Oh, think about all the different risks and keep
• 9:30
  Speaker 8: an eye out to the risk. And we do need
• 9:32
  Speaker 8: to do that.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: But some risks come with.
• 9:36
  Speaker 8: Bigger problems, right, Solving a stagflationary economic environment, like policy
• 9:41
  Speaker 8: solutions for that are a lot trickier because, say, for
• 9:44
  Speaker 8: the FED example, they're fighting both inflation and trying to
• 9:47
  Speaker 8: keep employment high.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Right, and their tools are going to be at odds
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: with each other.
• 9:52
  Speaker 8: So there's some like dark corners of the economic world
• 9:55
  Speaker 8: that we want to stay away from because if we
• 9:57
  Speaker 8: get there, they're a big problems. So I think it's
• 9:59
  Speaker 8: important to think about secflation. I don't think that's one
• 10:01
  Speaker 8: that's like highest probability, but if we get there, is
• 10:04
  Speaker 8: probably one of the highest probability of being a big mess.
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: How does the consumer look to you, Claudia, Because as
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: you pointed out at the top, the consumer held up
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: much better than we had anticipated in twenty twenty four,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: and yet all the savings I would guess are spent
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: off the pandemic era savings. This is a consumer that
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: at least the bottom you know, four Quinn tiles, is
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: not well prepared for retirement. The housing market is a
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: tough one to get into if you aren't already, and
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: I guess if you are, that's how you fund your retirement.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: But what does the consumer look like to you right now?
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: In the US?
• 10:48
  Speaker 8: So as a whole, the consumer is still in a
• 10:50
  Speaker 8: good place. We certainly as time has gone on, we
• 10:53
  Speaker 8: have seen more strains at lower income household That's why
• 10:56
  Speaker 8: I keep coming back to the labor market as so
• 10:59
  Speaker 8: essential because from most Americans that's where the money comes from,
• 11:03
  Speaker 8: that they're going to be spending. So you need a
• 11:05
  Speaker 8: vibrant labor market that has good, strong wage growth as
• 11:08
  Speaker 8: we have seen, and good job opportunities. So that is
• 11:11
  Speaker 8: so important for the bulk of Americans, the bulk of consumers.
• 11:15
  Speaker 8: You know, we've also seen really positive trends with some
• 11:18
  Speaker 8: probably middle class, upper middle class, wealthier consumers bolstered by
• 11:22
  Speaker 8: you know, the stock market has been very good. We've
• 11:24
  Speaker 8: had you know, we've had some trends that have continued
• 11:27
  Speaker 8: to bolster the consumer and their demand. And you know,
• 11:30
  Speaker 8: I mean I always say, don't bet against the American consumer,
• 11:33
  Speaker 8: right Like, if they have if they have the music
• 11:34
  Speaker 8: out and spend, they're gonna they're going to spend.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: And that's what we have that's what we have seen
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the past few years.
• 11:39
  Speaker 7: Should I be concerned about this, this weakness in the
• 11:42
  Speaker 7: manufacturing sector. I know it's only and I just underline,
• 11:46
  Speaker 7: only thirty percent of the US economy, But what does
• 11:50
  Speaker 7: that tell you? How do you think about that?
• 11:54
  Speaker 8: I think we've seen not just one more data point
• 11:57
  Speaker 8: of weakness from the manufacturing sector. I mean, we've seen
• 12:00
  Speaker 8: years of what could be seen as contractionary trends in manufacturing,
• 12:06
  Speaker 8: and and there, you know, we have to have a
• 12:08
  Speaker 8: discussion that's more about a structural you know, this this
• 12:11
  Speaker 8: is an economy that just hasn't been based on manufacturing
• 12:15
  Speaker 8: the same.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Way it had been many decades ago.
• 12:17
  Speaker 8: And this is a transition that's been happening very slowly
• 12:20
  Speaker 8: over time. And it's probably one of the discussions that's
• 12:22
  Speaker 8: hardest to have data release date to data release, right
• 12:25
  Speaker 8: because it just kind of the trends get glomed together.
• 12:29
  Speaker 8: So and then you know, and we're having a very
• 12:32
  Speaker 8: robust and I think a lot you know, this year,
• 12:35
  Speaker 8: a big part of this policy discussion is going to
• 12:37
  Speaker 8: be center around do you revive the manufacturing sector in
• 12:42
  Speaker 8: the United States?
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: And how do you do it best?
• 12:43
  Speaker 8: I mean, we certainly saw under President Biden a lot
• 12:46
  Speaker 8: of tax incentives and big, large programs. We're trying to
• 12:49
  Speaker 8: give money to companies to build up manufacturing in different
• 12:52
  Speaker 8: specific sectors, and we may see an approach that's quite
• 12:56
  Speaker 8: different in using tariffs to protect domestic industries and manufacturing
• 13:00
  Speaker 8: being one in the area.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So I think it's going to.
• 13:02
  Speaker 8: Be an ongoing discussion, but it really is more about
• 13:05
  Speaker 8: the deep underlying structure of the US economy and what
• 13:09
  Speaker 8: we want that deep underlying structure of the US economy
• 13:12
  Speaker 8: to look like clytie.
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: You know, you look at the long end of the
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: curve and just how much tenure thirty year rates have decoupled.
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: How much ConTroll does the Federal Reserve really have over
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: that longer end when you see investors equally concerned about
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: other issues like the fiscal term premium needed.
• 13:32
  Speaker 8: So the FED never hasn't never will have full control
• 13:36
  Speaker 8: over a ten year horizon. So that much shorter horizons
• 13:39
  Speaker 8: of treasury is like the two year you can really
• 13:41
  Speaker 8: have a conversation about the FED is very active in
• 13:45
  Speaker 8: what those treasure yields look like.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Out of the tenure.
• 13:47
  Speaker 8: There always are a host of concerns about or issues
• 13:51
  Speaker 8: in the US economy that are going to fit into
• 13:53
  Speaker 8: what do those treasury yields look like? And I think
• 13:57
  Speaker 8: we may there's just a lot of action right now.
• 14:01
  Speaker 8: Right there's a lot of information coming out of the
• 14:03
  Speaker 8: FED in terms of where they think they're going to
• 14:05
  Speaker 8: end up in terms of or potentially end up with
• 14:08
  Speaker 8: the rates. And this whole discussion about the terminal rate
• 14:11
  Speaker 8: or the neutral rate of interest, it's actually one where
• 14:14
  Speaker 8: while it comes out of FED official's mouths, it is
• 14:17
  Speaker 8: tied very much back to these structural features of the
• 14:20
  Speaker 8: economy and those are things like productivity or concerns about debt, sustainability, demographics,
• 14:29
  Speaker 8: other big issues, and those then can get I mean,
• 14:33
  Speaker 8: those are also issues that the tenure Treasury plays into.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: So while as you said, the FED doesn't control the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: tenure Treasury, and maybe we're seeing that.
• 14:43
  Speaker 8: Potentially some of those links weaken even more just because
• 14:46
  Speaker 8: the room is getting crowded in terms of issues that
• 14:49
  Speaker 8: people in the treasure markets need to absorb. But I
• 14:53
  Speaker 8: don't It's it's nothing unusual per se. It's what's maybe
• 14:57
  Speaker 8: more unusual is we're having there's big question marks out
• 15:00
  Speaker 8: there about the structure of the economy like we are
• 15:03
  Speaker 8: we a stronger economy or are we going to withstand
• 15:05
  Speaker 8: and really thrive with higher interest rates than.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: We did for the pandemic.
• 15:10
  Speaker 8: I mean these and they're very much open questions right
• 15:12
  Speaker 8: now and very very central to where those longer dated
• 15:17
  Speaker 8: treasury markets will land.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: I have a curveball question for you, Claudia as Good
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: an economist. Were you at the Beta Theta pie house
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: in March of nineteen ninety No, I'm kidding. What do
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: you think about the effect of GLP one drugs on
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: the US economy? We had a listener right in earlier
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: asking why you know the government doesn't just subsidize these
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: things and save US billions of dollars a year in
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: terms of healthcare. What do you think about the effect
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: of this drug? Have you given it any thought?
• 15:55
  Speaker 8: I think the way an economists like I said, would
• 15:58
  Speaker 8: probably tie this back in into this economic discussion would
• 16:02
  Speaker 8: be to think about the ability it gives individuals to
• 16:08
  Speaker 8: be more productive as workers. You know, and this lives
• 16:12
  Speaker 8: in the broad category of health and all all the
• 16:14
  Speaker 8: different kinds of pharmaceuticals and healthcare that we provide individuals
• 16:18
  Speaker 8: or they have access to that. Can you know, potentially
• 16:22
  Speaker 8: lengthen lives, make them more rich and fulfilling, make them
• 16:25
  Speaker 8: more able to stay off save disability roles, and be
• 16:27
  Speaker 8: in the workforce. So I think, you know, a healthier,
• 16:30
  Speaker 8: more productive workforce is one that is going to you know,
• 16:33
  Speaker 8: benefit the economy as a whole, do I think, But
• 16:36
  Speaker 8: that's me again being macroeconomist, a very big picture thinking
• 16:39
  Speaker 8: about the labor market as I often do, and not.
• 16:42
  Speaker 8: You know, there absolutely will be disruption under the hood
• 16:47
  Speaker 8: in terms of winners and losers in the economy from
• 16:50
  Speaker 8: you know, particular industries or particular institutions, and there will
• 16:55
  Speaker 8: be I mean, there's an answer to that question in
• 16:58
  Speaker 8: the beginning. I mean the massive budgetary impacts if say
• 17:03
  Speaker 8: Medicare or large government programs pick up these these kind
• 17:06
  Speaker 8: of drugs. Right, So there's all kinds of issues here.
• 17:09
  Speaker 8: But I think in terms of you know, a quality
• 17:10
  Speaker 8: of life, a healthier, healthier population, there is a lot
• 17:14
  Speaker 8: of both individual benefits and then their social benefits from
• 17:17
  Speaker 8: you know, if the healthier population as a whole.
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: Gladdy, we have to leave it there. Thank you so
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: very much for joining us today. Of course, it's a
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: wild bond market out there, and expect expectations changing quickly
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: around the course for next year as well.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US Live
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cardplay and Android
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube.
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: All right, President elect Donald Trump is offering his complete
• 17:50
  Speaker 7: and total endorsement to Speaker Mike Johnson as he wards
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: off a potentially crippling leadership fight in the House that
• 17:56
  Speaker 7: threatens to slow his agendic Greg Valley are agf ands
• 18:00
  Speaker 7: San's chief US policy strategist joints US. Now, Greg, what's
• 18:04
  Speaker 7: the position of President Trump? President Elect Trump here as
• 18:08
  Speaker 7: he gets ready to take office January twentieth.
• 18:12
  Speaker 9: That's incredibly uncertain, and it depends on who you talk at,
• 18:16
  Speaker 9: what time of the day is you know, we're going
• 18:19
  Speaker 9: to raise the death ceiling and we're going to invade Toronto.
• 18:22
  Speaker 9: Are we going to have who are we going to
• 18:24
  Speaker 9: have as Speaker of the House. These stories change almost
• 18:28
  Speaker 9: by the hour, and I think we're all going to
• 18:30
  Speaker 9: have to get used to this uncertainty for the next
• 18:33
  Speaker 9: four years.
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: If you have uncertainty over the next four years. Where
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: would it be the most at this point because there
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: are range of issues that investors are keeping an eye on,
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: the country is keeping an eye on. We talk a
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: lot about tariffs here at Bloomberg News. Of course that
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: is one of the places that of course we don't
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: know the plan yet. But how do you think about
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: this in terms of where the president elect will spar
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: with Congress.
• 19:01
  Speaker 9: His promises have been so grandiose that I think he
• 19:04
  Speaker 9: has to sort of stand up for what he has said.
• 19:08
  Speaker 9: I think on inauguration day, on the twentieth, we'll be
• 19:11
  Speaker 9: talking about terrace. I think he has to move on
• 19:14
  Speaker 9: that against China, Canada, other countries and immigration.
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: He has to move on that.
• 19:21
  Speaker 9: A failure to do what he has promised would would
• 19:25
  Speaker 9: really set him up for mockery and it would embolden
• 19:28
  Speaker 9: people like Elon Musk.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: I will chime in on something that I haven't brought
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: up yet. Okay, Donald Trump promised to get rid of
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: the state and local tax deduction cap that he put
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: on the.
• 19:44
  Speaker 7: Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: So, as we all know, before Trump came into office,
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: you could write off your state and local taxes from
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: your federal filing. He said he's going to get rid
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: of that cap that he put into place. What do
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: you think the likely of that is.
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: I'll bet you live in New Jersey.
• 20:03
  Speaker 9: Just a wild guess, but I do think I do
• 20:07
  Speaker 9: think it's going to be an issue that he'll have
• 20:10
  Speaker 9: problems with for the simple reason that we can't afford
• 20:13
  Speaker 9: all this stuff. If you look at what he has
• 20:16
  Speaker 9: promised in the last six months, a tax break for
• 20:19
  Speaker 9: waiters and waitresses, the state and local tax as you mentioned,
• 20:23
  Speaker 9: all sorts of things that I think will annoy people
• 20:27
  Speaker 9: in this very fiscally conservative house. You know, people say, well,
• 20:32
  Speaker 9: Trump and Johnson, House Speaker Johnson will get along. I'm
• 20:35
  Speaker 9: not so sure about that. Johnson can only afford to
• 20:39
  Speaker 9: lose one or two votes. And the Freedom Caucus may
• 20:43
  Speaker 9: have an issue if people in the Freedom Caucus who
• 20:46
  Speaker 9: live in Texas or Florida, they may have a big
• 20:49
  Speaker 9: issue with the salt tax.
• 20:52
  Speaker 7: So, you know, Greg, One of the other big issues
• 20:54
  Speaker 7: that'll probably be a day one type of issue for
• 20:56
  Speaker 7: the president, like Trump, will be migration and perhaps deportation
• 21:01
  Speaker 7: of certain illegal immigrants. How do you think that's really
• 21:05
  Speaker 7: going to play out in practicality?
• 21:08
  Speaker 6: I think your practicality.
• 21:10
  Speaker 9: Trump and Elon Musk and Ramaswami are going to have
• 21:13
  Speaker 9: to align.
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: It's going to be difficult with the Trump base.
• 21:18
  Speaker 9: I think Steve Bannon will lead that base and say
• 21:20
  Speaker 9: we don't want any immigration. But that's that's just not practical.
• 21:24
  Speaker 9: There are areas in our economy that need people from
• 21:28
  Speaker 9: India or wherever. And I think Trump is going to
• 21:31
  Speaker 9: have to moderate his tone on this.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump has said he's in favor of the h
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: one B visus. He's already come out on Musk's side,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: on Rama Swami's side on that issue, and he goes
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: up against Laura Loomi and maybe Margaret Taylor Green on that.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: But it seems that it's a fairly easy easy position
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: to hold because those aren't people stealing American jobs.
• 21:58
  Speaker 9: Right.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: The problem is you can't fill those jobs to begin with.
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 22:03
  Speaker 9: And again, just to reiterate the problem is the uncertainty.
• 22:07
  Speaker 9: Is he going to stick to his guns on the
• 22:11
  Speaker 9: death ceiling? People I talked to on Capitol Hill last
• 22:14
  Speaker 9: week were incredulous that he would inject the issue with
• 22:17
  Speaker 9: the death ceiling a hammer the Republicans can use later
• 22:22
  Speaker 9: in the year, that he's going to inject it now,
• 22:24
  Speaker 9: it just complicates everything.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: Speaking of complications, you know, when we're talking about that
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: immigration issue, you really did see a fracturing in certain
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: parts of the MAGA Party, if you will, or for
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: the right part of the Republican Party, where you did
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: see differences an opinion, very very vocal differences. Is it
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: too early to ask how this would play out in
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: the midterms.
• 22:49
  Speaker 9: No, that's a really good question. No, it's not too early.
• 22:53
  Speaker 9: I think it's going to confuse people so much that
• 22:58
  Speaker 9: it's going to get Democrats enthusiastic by spring that they
• 23:03
  Speaker 9: have a chance to regain control of the House and Senate.
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: Well, taking that a step further, Greg, if I'm a
• 23:11
  Speaker 7: part of the I don't know the Washington bureaucracy, I'm
• 23:15
  Speaker 7: going to be there five years now, ten years from now,
• 23:17
  Speaker 7: twenty years from now. In my department, Do I treat
• 23:19
  Speaker 7: this administration almost as a lane duck administration?
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: Not? Probably, not yet.
• 23:28
  Speaker 9: I mean, people who under estimate Trump do so at
• 23:31
  Speaker 9: their own peril. And I think Trump will have some successes,
• 23:35
  Speaker 9: but he can't keep changing his line every week or so.
• 23:38
  Speaker 9: That's going to exasperate people and it's going to cost
• 23:42
  Speaker 9: him the most important thing a politician has, and that's
• 23:45
  Speaker 9: political capital. And I think Trump's political capital just in
• 23:49
  Speaker 9: the last ten to fifteen days has taken a hit.
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: Greg. We thank you so much for your time. That
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: is Greg Valuer of AGF Investments. He's the chief US
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: policy strategist there. You might have missed it. This is
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: another big question. But late Friday night you had Janet
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: Yellen sending a letter to congressional leaders saying when the
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: new debt limit is going to come to the surface,
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: and the window is right around drum roll inauguration. So
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: that's another thing to watch out for in the coming weeks,
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: as well as those debt disputes coming back to the surface.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: I'm surprised you don't have a drum roll button. Yes, Tom,
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: not pushed to get those kind of things.
• 24:27
  Speaker 7: You're right, that's a great point.
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: I'll put that up.
• 24:29
  Speaker 7: I'll put a ticket in for that.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apples, Spotify,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the iHeart Radio app Tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg druma