Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Best Bets 2022

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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets 2022 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my bff, my companion,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Mike and Padre professional Better Simon Hunter. We gotta go, man,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: we gotta freaking go. No smooth talk right, just right
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: into football. We'll go right on in. We're not gonna
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: dilly dally here. I want to frame the premise of
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: this show, which is essentially you and I who love football,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: love betting on football, love talking to betting on football,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: taking a smorgas board of everything we've talked about for
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the past couple of months as the summer was ramping
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: up into the season, and just gathering our favorite topics
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: and our favorite bets and throwing them out there. So
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: here's something that you've kind of convinced me on. And
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: you know, I got a lot of jobs, right, I'm
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: really important. I gotta executive eyes all the time, and
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I gotta built strategies. I gotta hire people, and I
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: gotta fight battles and put out fires, but I also
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: find time to do my research. And you've really had
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: me come around on the Jags. Well half our listeners
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: just stop listening. Yeah right, But I look at the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: a f C South, and you know how what I
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: think of the South divisions in football don't matter, doesn't
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: leave their very small provincial region. But the Jazz are interesting.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And to me, it comes down to two things. The
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson Frank Reich mythology and I want to lay
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: it out for you. Doug Peterson went a super Bowl
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: with the Eagles. He creates an offense that is ahead
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: of the curve in terms of thinking analytically, going for
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: it with the Super Bowl with the backup quarterback in
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Nuke Falls, Frank Reich was the quarterback coach. He leaves
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: goes to Indie. Has had some success. I think more
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: credit than he deserves, given he hasn't won the division
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: and has tended to have his teams lose important games
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: when it matters the most. He banked on Carson Wentz
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: last year. Everyone believed he was a genius who could
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: turn them around. I think the genius is Peterson and
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I think he's got a generational talent and Trevor Lawrence
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: and I think this division is right for the taking.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Jack's plus eight hunter to win the division. Now. Shout
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: out to our loyal fans, who when I say crazy things,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: they don't question it. They just bet it. And they
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: were able to get the Jaguars at twelve to one
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: to win this division when we gave it out so
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: to meet chats, exactly what you talked about. We were
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: just ahead of it in the sense that we looked
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: at the landscape, we saw who is the most doubted
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: team right now football because of last year's performance, and
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: it's I mean, the Jags just stuck out. We knew
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: all they had, all this talent. We just knew it
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: was the coach, right we all we knew how long
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: it was Urban Meyer. I mean we I can't tell
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: you how much money I lost. Chris ray Burn every
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: week was laughing and say you don't bet on this man,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Do not stop betting on him. I just couldn't do
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: it because I just kept looking at Jaguars seven saying
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: they have the talent at least now have the coaching.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So now that's Ward this season, and I feel like
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: you nailed it. Chat. It's we're being on We're betting
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: on Doug. We're also betting on Trevor Lawrence. It was
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the number one pick. Who I mean, coming out, this
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: guy was getting by people who know what they're talking
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: about that can scout talent, compared to Andrew Luck the
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: John Elway kind of thing where it's like, this is
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: a can't miss prospect. We saw what happened last year,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Joe bro You took that year two step as the
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: first pick, and again we were getting really good odds.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Were betting now on the Jaguars, and I feel like
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: you just touched on it. Though it's still pretty good odds.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: It's still moving though, because I feel like the public
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: is joining us now. They're kind of coming around again.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: This is a part of the I view have just
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the division you just talked about, like we all have
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: these question marks with this Colts team, with this Titans team,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, Houston, no one even wants to talk about them.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: So to me, it's just funny we're in your division
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: that you know, coming to the year, I still think
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Houston has the best value technically in this division. Just
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: because they're not gonna be as terrible as people think,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: but realistically a team that could actually make a good
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: run in this division and make a playoff birth and
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: win a playoff game. It's the Jaguars. It's always been
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: to me, So I love that you've come around. Uh
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: it hurts. That's a little late. You know, it's late
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: August year, early September, but you know it's better late
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: than ever. So it's gonna be fun this season going
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: into where people are gonna be like, well, how are
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: we when are you going to get the Jaguars. With
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars your favorite team, once the season starts, it's over,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: like done the future talks. But right now mean Chad
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: projecting out, I still love this Jaguars team. I love
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: the Value Division, super Bowl, all of it. Again, it's
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: all about taking positions that we can hedge later on.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So to me, yeah, one of the no brainers I
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: love you started with the Jaguars. It's it's an easy
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: bet for me, just because again, second year quarterback, new coach,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: tons of talent all around him. It's it's a big
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: year for this offense. I'm interested to see how they're
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: gonna start out this year just because like he has
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: nailed a chet. It's it's a lot on Doug Peterson
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: right now. He has all the tools. Can he put
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: it together again? He did run a really good offense.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: It was part of the RPO offense and kind of
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: took the league by surprise. So can that often still work?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Do you want me to continue with my series?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: I would imagine you have something to add that could
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: be a potential best bet. Yeah, I got everything you need.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I literally I would just going through my books before
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: he came on, because you asked me for my best bets,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: which is like almost impossible to do. I just have
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: so many bets. And it's funny, I like no bets
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: on teams with people expect like I've almost had zero
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: dollars invested in the Bills, just a couple of teams
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: where it's like I have no money in them just
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: because I think they're over rated, overvalued, And it's just
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: like I know Bills might be the best in the FC,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: but are they that much better than every other team
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: that everyone's betting against. No, It's like we saw Rebell yesterday.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Rebel said the most money, most tickets Super Bowl winner
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is on the Bills. Everyone's all in on the Bills.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: It's not even close. So that's what's gonna be funny
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: going through this. People are just gonna hate these gross teams.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Were betting well before we walk away from the Jaguars.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Are the Jaguars to win the Division? Jaguars in any circumstance.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: And I want to say a couple of things. A
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: lot of good best bets content on the Action Network podcast.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: People should go listen to it. But also any other
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Jaguars bets that you were thinking as the best bet.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: If I hadn't said the Jaguars right now, would they
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: be the the first best bet you're offering. No, but
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I would have gave out their Super Bowl odds just
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: because it's a good number. But I would say to anyone,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: if your heads down the Jags, look at their look
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: at their schedule, you're you can afford to wait a
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: little bit with this team. Just because that week one
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: that that line stinks, It's then verse the Commanders. I
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: know plenty of pros have taken the four, taken the
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: four and a half of the Jaguars think it's down
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: to three and a half now. So if you already
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: missed the boat of the Jaguars. You want to wait
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a week. I got no issue on it because they
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: could lose Commanders and bam, You've got great odds once
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: again on the Jaguars team. So to me, if you're
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: hesited on it, just waited out. Me and Chad we
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: invested early and often on this team, so we're kind
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: of already in on the Jaguars exactly. So give me
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: something else. Chad knows I like doing. I'm not sure things.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: There are no short things on football. But if I'm
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: gonna bet these favorites, I like the parlam of them together.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So I'm looking for are parley breakers. I feel like
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: all the time. That's the kind of thing I'm looking for.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: It's like what trap am I stepping into? One? Am
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I falling into? Again? The hype has been building around them,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: but I still think you're getting a good number on
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: this team, and that's Miami, so their plus fourth fith
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: ye right now to win the division. I get the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Bills left like the Bills on paper, unbelievable team. But
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: the biggest clearing weakness to Bills team is their offensive line.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: And if I'm looking for a team in Miami that
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: they've put the pieces around to uh. They have the offensive,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: they have this system right, they're one of the most
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: spread offenses in football. I have to take this number
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: like this should be closer to plus three hundred rather
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: than plus four fifty plus four join fandels. So, to me,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: one of my best bets this year is just betting
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: against what people consistently think is going to happen, which
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: is the Bill is to take a big step this
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: year and be that number one seed. I just can't
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: see it working that way. It felt like last year
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: was a better team than is this year. And again,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I know they've made offense season moves. They were just
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: so they were put together so perfectly last year. I know,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: again the money isn't kicking yet for Josh Allen, so
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: they went out and added more players at that defense.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: It's just gonna be a really tough road in the
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a f C. And I just think their division got
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: that much better with Miami. And again, I know England's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: gonna get a step back, but they're still gonna be
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: improved for the second year quarterback than a rookie and Max.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: So to me, it's just it's too much love with
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: the Bills and not thinking about how improved their division is.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And in Miami itself, where everything I've read about them
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: defensively and offensively is they are so fast. People are
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be shocked about how fast this Miami team is
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: just because they really haven't seen it yet on we've
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: only read about it. So to me, if I'm looking
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: at a dark horse that it's kind of gaining gaining
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: steam here, especially down in Florida. I mean, I can't
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: get over the two and on fans like these guys.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: If I even mentioned Miami, they're just on me about it.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: But I do love them. I just love this offensive
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: scheme And to me, am I putting too much on
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: a rookie head coach. But it's all they're like, it's
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: all their schedule wise, matchup wise, certain times they have
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: games rest disparency against these other teams. It just lined
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: up very well for this Miami team that out of
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: taking this all way down to plus three hundred, in fact,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I'm getting plus f fifties certain books, I'm gonna take
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: that on Miami to win this division. And it's not
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: just a hedge against this Bill's team. It's simply, I
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: think you're getting good value and later on I believe
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: you will will come back, and if you want to
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: get back on the Bills, I think you will to it.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Maybe all minus one minus one fifty, because again the
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Bills have a very tough schedule early on. Can we
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: go back to the a f C South for a second,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I would love to. I'm thinking about three things. League
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: passing leaders, most yards passing, I'm thinking about most yards receiving.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So I'm thinking about Matt Ryan, I'm thinking about Michael Pittman,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: and I'm thinking about Trevor Lawrence. This brings it back
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: to the question of do I believe in Frank Right?
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Do I think that he has just been, you know,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the victim of bad luck with his quarterbacks, and with
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, he's kind of getting a guy who can
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: do most of what he needs a quarterback to do.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Because I believed that Matt Ryan before. I remember last
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: year we were like Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: like he's gonna be amazing. We had him to lead
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the league in passing yards. It didn't go very well.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Now we're saying Matt Ryan could lead the league in
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: passing yards with Frank Reich as his coach, and Michael
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Pittman could be a guy he's gonna passing yards. Have
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: you actually heard someone say that about Matt Ryan. I
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: don't know, Jonathan Taylor offense, It's it's just Matt Ryan's
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: just there to manage, you know what I mean. So
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: that's a dead bet. I like you're going with Pittman though,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: what you're about to say with Pittman? So why are
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: we saying that about Pittman Because he's the only one,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: He's the one man show there. I think that's what
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Chris is looking at where it's like he is, we're
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: talking about Chris Raybond by the way, Chris raybo Sorry, yes,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: talk to us about Michael Pittman to lead the league
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: in receiving yards. And I got I see what he's
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: coming from. Where I look for that. I look for
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the Island players. So a guy that's on a team,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: he's the only guy. Um to me, that's my question
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: mark is the Matt Ryan thing. It's like again, I
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: saw Philip Rivers. I've seen this cold team put a
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: corpse back there and make it work somehow. And that's
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: what they're hoping I want to do. I mean Rivers.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: You can say all you want about him, and literally retired.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: The following year. He got that team to the playoffs
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: and they won. They beat the Ravens in the playoffs
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: with him, and so I'm with you, it's Frank. Frank
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: has done it before with these quarterbacks. He just I
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: don't know what's up with him. He just can't win
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: this division. So that's my only reason of being out
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: on them. It's like Frank, for some some reason, he
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: just can't. You kept losing divisional games, all right, you
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: can't beat the Jaguars in these stupid games, can't beat
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the Tennessee Italians these last couple of years. But man,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: do they kill this Texas team. So that's what's so funny.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, Chad, we love the Texas Week one where
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the simple fact that Frank starts slow. You go through
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Frank's record as a cold sid coach. I mean almost
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: every season they're either starting one in three, one in
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: two oh and four last year. Um, it's it's been
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: a problem from as a coach. And I'm interesting if
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: they actually can get out a hot start with because
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: again Matt Ryan that I think he's that much better
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: than Carson. But we again, that's something we talked about
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: with Ross. It's like these players, they're probably gonna look
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: at Matt Ryan way differently than look at Wentz. Right,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: It's like a confidence belief thing. So to me, a
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: couple of couple people asked why we're not in on
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Tennessee or the Colts, and it's just a value based bet.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: It's just I don't see that big of a difference
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: between them. Again, people hate the Houston. I'm telling Houston
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: on paper is not as bad as people think. And
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. I just think both those teams are closer
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: to plus four hundred plus five hundred to win this
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: division than you know, twenty five to one, which is
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: what Houston is, and eight to one, which Jaguars are.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: All right, we can get off the a f C South. Now,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: we spent too much time on a division that nobody
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: cares about. We talk about the most controversial division right now?
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Are we talking about the a f C West. I'll
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: doc West. I was gonna throw NFC East. That's the
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: buzz this week is the Eagles Cowboys. The egos are
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: all the way down to even I think it's plus
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys are plus one forty five now, so
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: they're finally mutually the same odds right now for this
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: division after six months. Well, I'm glad you bring it
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: up because I do have a thought here, which is,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Jalen hurts to win m v P. Jalen hurts to
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: win m v P. Hold on, I'm looking it up
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network. Jalen hurts one to win m
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: v P. Do you not like those odds right now?
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: You think they're too short? You think they've been cut
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: in half? Like, what's you're thinking here? I like it?
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: You know how I view Week one? I do think
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the lines are gonna upset this team, the all hype
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: team of the Eagles on the road as a big favorite.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: And I've been telling people again, if you really want
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: to do it, go ahead and bet on the Eagles.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: But I'm a big believer in value betting, and you've
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: missed the value. The value is when we've been talking
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: about them all off season, about how good their d
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: line is, how good their offensive line. Now you see
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: everyone's all in on this team now, so you wait,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: you wait in this spot. You hope the Lions can
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: do what we think they can do pull the upset
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: off week one at home against this Eagles team, where again,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I just think this team, they're feeling good right now,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: and you're hoping they get humbled real quick by this
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Detroit Lions team, because that's what this Eagles team is
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: gonna need. Everyone's just been blown to smoke up their
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: ass this whole whole preseason. So to me, if you're
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: gonna get on the Eagles, I've already talked about just wait.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: I do think they're gonna have a little bout trouble
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: come out of the gates, just because it took him
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: a little while last year to find their rhythm, find
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: their groove, and it's just different. Every year is different
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: where if you're if you're taking a team on the
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: road that's more than three points of a favorite, they
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: better be damn good and that better be an established quarterback.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Week one, this Eagles team has proven nothing to be
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: getting that kind of respect other than the betting public's
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: favoring this team. So to me, it's just weight because
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I again we're gonna talk about who we think, uh,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: you know, teams are gonna be in the the super Bowl,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: everything like that down the show. I'm all in on
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: this Egos team. I've been in all in on them
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: since the start. They're just one of the best teams
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: how he's ever put together on paper, the GM of
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. The only question is Hurts. That is literally
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the only question. Can this get read a defense? Because
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: he cannot. He could not laugh. Sure, you can not
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: read a defense. His first instinct was read one, pull
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: it down and run it, which I love for fantasy.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: They will never win your playoff games. Teams can scheme
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: against that. So that's my biggest question where coming in to
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to the shore of the Seagos team. Love all the
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: talent on this team, best offensive line, top five, top
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: three defensive line just because of rotation. But Hurts man,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I just there's just so much hype around him. It's
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: it's it is honest to get terrifying because he again
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: he hasn't done enough for him to be observing of
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: the hype. They're giving him every opportunity to secure a
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: massive long term deal like they desperately want him to succeed.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: They desperately want him to be the quarterback. Uh, It's
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: clear if he doesn't win with this team, It's really fascinating.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: How they've positioned themselves because they'll probably be good enough
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs or maybe you know, be a
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: seven eight win team, which won't let them the high
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: draft pick they would need to get a quarterback. Uh,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: so there'll be an interesting spot next year because I'll
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: have to play the free agent market or the trade
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: market or something. So they got the Saints pick, That's
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: that's what he's banking. He has the Saints pick as well,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: so he's hoping that Winston Calayan egg for the Saints
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: team and then he gets a high pick. But I'm
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: honestly have the view that it's a two year plan.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: How he's given him this year and next year and
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: he'll just keep moving moving. Either Hill draft quarterback next
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: year because he doesn't care. He took hurts when Wentz
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: was here. People people back like that didn't happen. That
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: was just two years ago. So to me, how he
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: doesn't care. He gets It's like I've said this since
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: the I've been doing this show, like if I was
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: a GM of a team, unless I had Aaron Rodgers,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: which even his team did, I'd be drafting a quarterback
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: every other year just because it doesn't matter. It's like, again,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: it's one of my favorite things ever. People shifting on
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Green Bay for drafting Jordan Love. How stupid of a
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: draft pick? Have you ever looked at what Rogers was
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: doing before they drafted him. He has been doing a
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: bunch of nothing and they drafted him went back to
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: back m v P. So smartest draft pick ever, I
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: would argue, But what do I know? Uh So that's again,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: that's just to me. I'm giving how the credit right now.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: But he's kind of set up this team. Like Chad
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: just said that, he owes nothing to Hurts. He's put
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Hurts in the best position he could, gives him a
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: year or two, and it Hurts doesn't produce. It's a business.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: We're onto the next one. So I love the way
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: this Egos team set up for this season. And again
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: that's why I want to ask you who's betting this
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Dallas team? Because I talked to a bookmaker a couple
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: of days ago. There's still money coming in on Dallas
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: to win this division. That's why it hasn't dropped again.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: The Eagles our favorite one this division. They're they're they're
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: literally the equal of the Dallas Cowboys. Right now, I
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: would love to hear how you going this Cowboys team
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: heading in because it feels like everyone's really down on
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: them and people are gonna be surprised they're one of
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the seven I have making the playoffs this upcoming season.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: I have them making the playoffs as a wild card
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: previewing Simon and I will go through our top seven
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: in each friends. Um, but I do think as far
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: as expectations look, it's the Cowboys, right. They have Dak Prescott.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: People still think of Ezekiel Elliott as a top flight
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: running back. Uh, they have Michael Parsons, who is a
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: defensive Player of the Year candidate. Casual fans do not
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: look at offensive line of woes the same way that
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: hardcore fans and betters look at offensive line line woes.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Jerry Jones makes a lot of noise. He runs a
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: train wreck of an organization, right, and people who pay
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: attention to the league recognize that. Forget about their valuation,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: forget about the fact there worth more than any professional franchise. Ever. Internally,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: they stink so like they're on pace with the Lions
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: since like in the past thirty years for having won
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a playoff game, They're gonna get the money. That's why
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: they're still favorites. And you're also looking at a division
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: with the Giants and the Washington Commanders, so the money
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: has got to come in on somebody, and there was more.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Dak Prescott is a higher profile quarterback than Jalen Hurts.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: People bet on the quarterback, so you're gonna bet on
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys, You're gonna bet on Dak Prescott. So that's
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: why the money's coming in. But this is the Eagles
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: division to lose to me, So that's we're an agreement
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: where I think my biggest of you is if you
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: didn't get on their wind total with US early, their
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: division odds early, or for them to you know when
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: d NFC, I would just wait, like you've already kind
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: of missed the boat here. And that's again that's my
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: best advice. It's like, don't don't put your money into
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: something just because you feel like you you're missing out.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: It will come back around. You'll be able to get
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: value on this kind of dog. But man, the hype
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: around this Eagos team, it's I can't remember being this high.
• 21:46
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• 23:35
  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. What's your next best bet on your list?
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: No chakra to people Ravens super Bowl still one. Nothing's changed.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I just love this bet and the sense that they're
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: my favorite high profile team. People are still doubting them.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: A lot of question marks about Lamar right now because
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: he hasn't signed a deal. I love that I loved
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Lamar has assigned this deal yet, when you're trying to
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: be great, it's gonna be negative of what you know.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: They hated Jesus and I'm not Jesus, so I want
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: me to worry about it. I don't know if you
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: guys remember the last time a Raven's quarterback went to
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a season without signing a deal. He wants Super Bowl
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco, So to me, it's setting up for one
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: of those career years. I love how they're scheming this
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: team out like people. If you look at who their
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: running backs were last season, I believe all five guys
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: who played for them at one point are not on
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: a roster or on a practice squad right. And they
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: brought in a new a bunch of new faces, and
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Kenyan Drake's there now too. They're supposed to get j K.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Dobbins back soon. I know the question marks about a
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: ride receiver position, but to me, that's not that big
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: of a deal. Where you're kind of a tight end
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: based team and everything's thrown out of a scheme. Like
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: half the time Lamar's doing two receivers, they're schemed open
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: just because of the linebackers have to step up to
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: get you know, counteract with Lamar is doing in the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: run game and there's always these little openings that Lamar
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: can fit the ball into. So I I've come in
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: realized that the Bengals are always going to be that
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: team now with Joe, that's gonna be talked about this division.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: And again we talked about Pittsburgh, which is my other
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: favorite bets for this division, and not at nine o
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: one or ten to one to win this division, but
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: just strictly Super Bowl bet. The two biggest ones I've
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: done for like highest odds are the Ravens and the Chiefs,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Like those are the two teams. I bet that Chiefs
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: are tend to one, Ravens twenty to one. But the
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Ravens thing, again, I know Lamar has done in the playoffs,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: but you just can't. You can't get a defense like
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: that they have out of nowhere, Like the the way
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: they built their team is an incredible defense with an
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: incredible running team. And like I love that kind of
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: style heading into you know, January, because it's hard to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: prep for that, Like only certain teams can really defend
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: that well. You need a certain type of linebacker, a
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: certain type of speed to defend this kind of offense.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm a little nervous about it just in the
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: sense that everything I've heard about Lamar is he's improved.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen it. I haven't seen him play any
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: preseason football. I've only seen a little bit and read
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit from the Beat writers about the Ravens
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: and put a lot of faith in this Ravens team
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the sense that I know the talent to have on defense,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and I know what they have on all offense. There
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: should be twenty one. They should be closer to one
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: than they are. But again, it's the Bengals affect the
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Bengals because they're in division. They've made that number a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: little a little higher for you, just because the Bangles
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: are at twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: So that's that's why that's kind of move bigess doesn't
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: really have to do with either teams, so that just
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: put them right next to each other. I love this.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I've played this as well. It's amazing to me that
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: they've just been sitting at twenty one for basically the
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: entire offseason, even though so many people have said that's weird. Right,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: And if you're talking about value, which we talk about
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: all the time, we tend to want to bet on
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: teams at odds that are twenty to one or longer,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: and this has been a team that's getting a lot
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: of attention. I'm just completely surprised that it hasn't dropped
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: at all, which why the bang was having either just
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: because we know after the Watson news came out, I
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: swore both these teams odds would go up just because
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: who's bet in the Browns coming out of this division
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: to win a Super Bowl. But again, I just think
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: people forget this team, the Ravens. They were the one
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: seed before Lamar got hurt. Yeah, that that's what was
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: happening last year. As also they had like they bably
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: had any defensive backslash Yeah yeah. And now they have
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: won the one best the best defensive backfields according Pro
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Football Focus of all the teams, I think their top
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: three right now rated. So again it's I tried to
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: build a time. You can't really think so much about
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: last year. It's completely new year, and I get the
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: doubt with Lamar in the playoffs and stuff, but like,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: just look at this team on paper, they should not
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: be twenty one. For my next best bet, I'm offering
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: to Bears under five and a half wins and By
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the way, the Bears right now under five and a
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: half wins that is uh plus at FanDuel and the
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Jets under five and a half wins plus one. The
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: Bears are a dreadful team. There's no two ways about it.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Alex Leatherwood is the savior of this team. A first
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: round pick from who played the offensive line for the Raiders,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: was cut they couldn't find a trade. He went on
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the waivers. The Bears picked him up. That's who they're
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: counting on to solidify their offensive line around their quarterback
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: that they have invested no protection in. I'm just not
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: a believer. They're in complete rebuilding mode. A defensive coach
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: with a in Matt Eberflus, who I have no opinion
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: on other than I wanna build on Justin Field as
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: a generational talent and I'm not getting that opportunity. And
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: that's what It's gonna be a fun year for bearsmans,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: as much as gonna be miserable if your team is terrible, awful.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: It's awfu when your team is bad, but when you
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: have a young quarterback and makes a little less painful
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: because you're just just excited, Like even in that priests. Again,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: there are certain throws where it's like, oh my god,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Fields upside is so high. Again, I I'll never understand
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: why Zach Wilson went above him. Um, it's so crazy
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: if you think about these certain things. I came from
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: b y U and higher than a kid that played
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, and I mean, I know that doesn't matter,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: if at the same time it kind of does. Um. Yeah,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: it's just that the talents there. With Fields, We'll see
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: if they can scheme it up, because last year they
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: just did nothing for him, but they literally put him
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: in the worst position every time. If this team just
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: schemes it right for a Fields, I can see him
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: putting up good numbers on a fun team and this
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Bears team. And the same thing with the Jets. Like
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: the Jets have Unlike the Bears have a ton of town.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: The Bears have no talent. They've just drafted terribly. I
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: think the Jets have drafted really well. I just have
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: way too many questions of the coaching position. I have
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: way to make question of the quarterback position. So I'm
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: on both those unders um And it's funny where I'm
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: in the opposite of like I'm all in on the
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Houston being over, Atlanta being over, and the lines being over.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: But there's some bad teams I just can't get behind,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: and Jets and the Bears. Of those two teams where
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I just I think both them are not spinning their
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: tires this year. But it's just like they just weren't
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: put in position to do well with the team that's
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: puilt around them. And the Jets one is just because
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: of a division. They're just in such a hard division,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: including the a f C. Like you would really need
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: Zach Wilson to take a major second year step to
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: do anything. No Joe Flacco. Like Joe Flacco might be
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: fun for a game against his old team, you do
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: not I want that man playing this show you if
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: you're a Jets fan, you want to know you got
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: in Zack Wilson. You need that kid to play. So
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: hopefully you can get back soon we can really figure
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: out what this Jets team is gonna be. Jets under
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: five and a half, largely because they're one of those
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: teams that is so public right now. Since the draft,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: they had three first round draft picks, Sauce Gardner a corner,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson at receiver, Jermaine Johnson on the defensive line.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Everyone assumed, all right, we're betting the over because they
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: won the draft. That's when you buy the under, especially
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: plus money on the under. A five and a half
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: plus just for the NFC North for my best bet
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: that division. Everyone knows I love the lines are like that,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: but it's actually the Vikings under and the Vikings that
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: missed the playoffs. I think you're getting really good value.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: They're one of the most hyped up teams heading into
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: the season based off them getting a new head coach,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: which I agree. The guy can't be worse than Zimmer.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: He still is Kirk Cousins, like he's still gonna Kirk
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Cousins to make big plays, um not just put up
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: junk time yards and touchdowns. So fading Kirk when the
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: public is all over Kirk, and that's what they are
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: this year, they're everyone's darling. I still think Green Bay
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: is far and above the best team's division, So for
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: looking at divisional bet green Bay, they're probably the best
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: value now minus won fifty. But my favorite bet is
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Vikings not to make the playoffs. I believe that's up
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: to plus one s plus one sixty because they've just
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: been getting bet up. So you like the Vikes and
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: not to make the playoffs better than the Vikes under
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the season win total. Yeah, just because you're getting a
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: better plus number, Okay, which is probably the same thing.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: That's a good that's a smart way to look at it, right,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: If they're not gonna win nine games, then they're probably
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: not going to make the playoffs in the NFC, because
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: again we're just assuming we're last year. I think the
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Eagles made in at nine and eight, but if they
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: had to play starters, they probably would have made that
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: tenant seven. So like that's one of those that's where
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: you're really you're kind of banking on is teams need
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: to play at the end of the season, but I
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: want to take the risk of like getting the team's
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: over and them just sitting all their starters and you
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: get nothing out of it. All, Right, I want to
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: recap the five best bets we've given so far. Tell
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: me if I'm missing anything. Jags plus eight hundred to
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: win the NFC South. It's actually down to seven fifty
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: uh Ravens, the Bears, and the Jets under five and
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: a half. The Vikings not to make the playoffs plus
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: one st Miami plus four fifty to win the AFC East.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Did I miss any Nope? I mean and we could
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: throw in Pittsburgh. Also think that is one of my
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: better bets. Divisional winner nine or ten to one, depend
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: on the book you're getting that. I wonder what Mike
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Tomlin is going to say about that. We all talk
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: too much. Sharp dudes can just see it because sharp
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: dudes don't care what you say anyway, They're just watching,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So what I think we
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: need to do because people have asked for this, even
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: though as Matt Mitchell, who is nothing if not stringent
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: about the need for every Action Network podcast to only
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: be about actionable information, just go out there and try
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: to have fun, you know, you know, having fun is
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: the name of the game. People want to know what
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: we think the seating is going to be for the
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: a f C and the NFC. Simon do the NFC,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: which this is all actionable, but it's just not a
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: good value now because like a team I'm about to
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: give out, there are to be the one seed in
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the middle of July. Nowither down to ten to one,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: So I'll start from the bottom for the NFC, my
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: seventh guy, my last guy in you know who it's
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be. Each Detroit Lions are squad. They finally make
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: it in the layoffs, and I got them getting their
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: first playoff one. So I've got Lions at seven at
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: the six spots, I got the Cowboys five spot. I
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: got the Rams, So that means I got the forty
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Niners winning the division. I got them as a four seed,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: got the Bucks when their division. I got them the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: three seed, got Green Bay when in their division, and
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: they got them as a two seed and the one
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: seed for the easiest schedule in football. The Philadelphia Eagles
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: that one seed, so they were one to have the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: best record in football. Now they're down to ten to
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: one to have the best record on football. It's interesting
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: how similar some of our Surprise Pixar. We spent a
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: lot of time together. That's true. I have the Niners.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: Is the one seed. I'll go the other way. I
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: go seven. You already ruined the Surprise, Okay, seven. I
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: have the Vikings. Six, I have the Cowboys, five, I
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: have the Rams, four, the Saints. Wow. Three, I have
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: the Packers. Two, I have the Goals one. I have
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: the Niners. I've decided. You know, I love Kyle Shanahan.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: I think he is one of the best play calling
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: schematic coach him up coaches in the NFL. I think
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: he's he's so close. I don't think Matt Ryan was
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: a great quarterback. I blame Kyle Shanahan for the fourth
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: quarter collapse. I don't think Jimmy G was a great quarterback.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: I blame Kyle Shanahan for the fourth quarter collapse. Give
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: him a great quarterback and he fixes his fourth quarter
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: collapse tendencies. And I see this guy winning the Super Bowl. Yeah,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I got Jimmy G coming in Week seven. Get them
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: to the playoffs, winning their division. That's all I'm sneaking
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: in the fourth seed. Okay, I'm going to go in
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: on the Niners. The Niners right now plus uh seven
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: fifty to win the NFC. We had a lot of
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: similarities though, Yeah, I mean right, we're literally the lockstep
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: on the Cowboys and the Ramps. Yep. Interesting that you
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: can think the books that they're not gonna make it.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: You just think Brady's got too much going on. I
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: think their offensive line is a mess, and the best
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: way to pressure Brady is up the middle. I think
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: with a new coach, I think for whatever reason, and
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: this is you know, what the fun do. I know.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I'm literally gonna put ten k on them after we
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: get off the show to make the playoffs. I love you, Chat.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: He feels disengaged to me, this is what Tom needs.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: He needs us a couple of assholes and media doubt
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: because I do have my doubts too, But like I
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: gave them the three seed just because it's Brady. It's like,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: if there's anyone that can adjust to any little thing,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: and you have him around with talent and Mike Evans
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: and Leonard Fournett and got Gront coming back eventually. I
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: don't know. I just think they're gonna figure it out
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: where Like as we sit here right now with Chat,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I'm so down on them, Like I wanted to bet
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: them so bad against the cows. Yeah, we're gonna talk
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: about week one, but it's like, oh man, just bad ju.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: I've never seen Tom so despondent and one of those
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: things where he's like, I'm forty five, I've got a
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: lot of ship going on my life, and it's like, holy,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: this guy is human. So that that was definitely weird
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: seeing him be more human than normal. Um, all right,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: let's go now to the American Football Conference. Go from
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: the bottom. You want me to go? All right? So
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: people think I hate him, I disrespect them constantly. People
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: forget we are the We were a huge Bengal fans
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: last year. We gave him out ten to one to
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: win their division. I still love the Bengals, just don't
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: love him the value they're going at. So I have
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the Bengals the seventh seed I got, I'm getting not
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: in eight. I like again, I think they're going under
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: their wind total. I think they do sneak in because
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is that good. Like they're gonna have so
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: much bullshit this year because of Joe. I still think
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: they somehow get it because he's that could have a quarterback.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: So in the seventh seed, I got Joe and the Bengals. Six,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: I got the Chargers. Five, I got the Bills, four Jaguars,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: three Miami two Ravens at number one, the Kansas City Chiefs. Man,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: nothing nothing changes for me. I just love the Chiefs
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: this year that they're just far and above to me,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: the best team. So interesting, so interesting. We have a
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: lot of the same teams but different order. So US
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: got four new teams making the a f C Playoffs.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: The four new teams are Chargers, Jaguars, Miamien Races. I
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: have the Chargers at seven, I have the Bangles at six.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: So you and I are flipping. You had the Bengals
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: at seven, the Chargers at six. I have the Chiefs
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: at five. Wow. Okay. Then I have the Jags at four,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: the Broncos at three, the Ravens at two, the Bills
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: at one. Wow. So you got the Bills playing out
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: as the one seed. I mean that makes sense. It
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean I think they're gonna win the conference or
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowls. I do think that the Bills will
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: end up with the best record, and and you know
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: that will play the form I can't. I kept my
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: surprises for later, the Jags, the Broncos, that kind of thing.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Give me your a f C and NFC green A
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: playing the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game with the
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Bucks winning. And then I have the Chiefs over the
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Jaguars in the a f C Championship game. So I
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: have Chiefs Bucks with the Chiefs winning at all. So
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: a rematch, but it's gonna be flipped. It's gonna be
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: a revenge tour for the Chiefs. I like the Eagles
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: of the Niners. I like the Niners to win. I
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: like the Ravens and the Bills. I like the Ravens
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: to win, and I want the Ravens to win the
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. That would be another rematch. The last time
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: they played. It was Kaepernick Flacco, the lights going off.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I was at that game. That was an amazing weekend.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I barely remembered it was. So that was amazing super
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Bowl too. I mean, the four inarially came all the
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: way back, so good. So this is interesting. I like
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: the way this ended, isn't it fun? The Chiefs are
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: we we didn't talk about it looks like we're gonna
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: look like geniuses are huge assholes in six months. Well look,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: that was always my theory when I was running the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: USP in the magazine, like had to make Super Bowl picks,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: and my theory was always just do something stupid, because
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: in six months you're either gonna look like a genius
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: or no one's gonna remember. But like, why choose the
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: same two teams all the time? You know? I just
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: ran mind through a simulation. It was just like, just
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: just give me the odds of the best chance of
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: whatever is gonna happen. And it was no shocker like
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Brady Verse Aaron Rodgers. No one will be shocked if
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: that's an NC Championship game. I do think the Chiefs though,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: that would be pretty wild if it was Chiefs first.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: Jaguars like, if Trevor Lawrence can make a year two
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: to the a f C Championship Game, I mean they're hype,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: will be like Joe Burrows next year. It would just
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: be out of this world. As Jaguars team, yep, I
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: like it. I like it. Go Jacks. Last year we
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: were in Atlanta Falcons podcast. This year we're a Jacksonville
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Jaguars podcast. Yeah, we've we've upgraded to the lines on
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. We continue to love teams from conferences, nobody
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: from divisions, nobody cares about in the an NFC South.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I think we've wrapped it up for Simon Hunter, for
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman. This is the
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Downloads from Apple podcast, Spotify,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe, say whatever
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: you want leave us five stars. Feedback is a gift.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: Next time we talk, folks were going down the rout
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: the lineup. We're going down every single game. We're gonna
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: start picking out our favorite five. Until next time, I
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: love you,