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Blue Jays/Royals MLB + NCAAF Best Bets Saturday 9/20/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season, Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: wookends slump that I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die at least oh
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and two yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. Slumperies, slump, disconvenuous, The
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: know what I should do at this point other than
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: with you better off dead. Saturday, September twentieth, Thanks for
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: people who hung out for the College Football Show last night.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: If you missed it, go check that out. We do
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: have multiple plays in college football. You can go see
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the analysis on that show where I posted the short
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: videos on my Instagram as well. We got Miami Ohio
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. I know, I don't even
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: know if two and a half is still out there.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I know we missed the key number three there. I
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: still think it's probably I would say Miami Ohio should
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: win that game, to be honest, So do what you
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: owe with that information. Memphis plus seven. You might be
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: able to get seven and a half on that one
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: because the public is definitely against that one. So either one.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Kennisa State. We did miss the better numbers on that.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: I think it was at least six and a half,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: but four and a half home underdog I think is
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: still good. So kennessas State plus the points and then
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the one everybody really is trashing me about, so I
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: need to get it right just to silence the hater.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Or is this Florida plus seven and a half against Miami,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So go do that. You can also go watch my
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: rants on last night's video, because yesterday we went one
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and two and it absolutely should have been two and one.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: We got the win on the Baltimore Orioles first five innings.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: They won full game as well, which I'm extra happy
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: about because I don't like the Yankees. Houston was a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: dead one. I mean, Seattle, you gotta just tip your
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: cap to Brian Wu. Very good star from him. He
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: beat me. That's there is to that. But then the
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: under in Miami and Texas, there is no way that
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: that should have lost. Go watch my rant last night.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to rehash that again. I am
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: so mad about that. It was one nothing in the
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: seventh inning, so the first five would have been an
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: easy under. It was one to one at the end
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of nine. But it's still like, okay, I mean this
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: is Texas in Miami, in Texas, these teams still can't hit,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: so It's like, all right, one of these teams is
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: gonna just win by one or two runs. Here, we're
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: still gonna get this under Miami took a three to
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: one lead in the tenth okay, should be over. Texas
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: is gonna score two runs. Oh no, that's exactly what
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: they do to send it to more innings. And then
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: it completely unraveled in the twelfth inning because even at
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: that point we still could have gotten a one run,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a four to three win there still would have put
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: the game under force. No, Miami goes and they scored
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: three more runs, and then Texas also put up a
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: run because of course the ghost run. The ghost runner
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: has to go away. Dude, there was no way that
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: a one to one game at the end of nine
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: should go over eight runs. I'm sorry, it can't happen.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: It should never happen. It's probably this is one of
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the worst baseball beats that I've ever seen. It is.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I'm never gonna forget it. It's gonna irritate me till
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the end of time I get rid of the ghost Runners.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: It's a It was introduced during COVID for absolutely no reason.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: It does not make the game better. It makes it
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: way worse. It's not even baseball. You don't even earn
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: that base runner. Some of the best games in baseball
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: history have been ones that go whatever, like fourteen fifteen,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: sixteen innings, including some in the two thousand and four
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: ALCS Red Sox Yankees. Just give me a break, man,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: mister Cover, thanks for coming back. What's up? Man? You
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: have Miami in Missouri. Miami and Missouri moneyline parlay. That's sorry.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I think you mentioned that last night, right. You know,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I don't like Miami, so I think Florida has a
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: decent chance to win that game outright, So I would
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with parlays in general, but I don't
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: agree with Miami in general either. I mean, I guess
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: they should win the game outright, but I'm not really
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: even are sure about that. I think Florida might be
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: able to win that game. Hopefully I'm not wrong about
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: that for my purposes at least, but hopefully we both
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: are right though. Hopefully you get your parley and Miami
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: wins and doesn't cover, and then we're all happy. Missouri. Yeah,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think I said I slightly leaned to
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Missouri there. It's a little bit weird to handicap that
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: with Sellers is actually gonna play. I think for South
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Flora or South Carolina. Excuse me, I don't know you
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: like Chargers money. I don't agree with that either. I
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: like the Denver Bronc goes in that when the Chargers
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: are getting so much hype, I'll talk about it tonight
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: on my NFL show. Come back tonight for the NFL Show.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: The Chargers. They're way too overhyped. Man. I saw like
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: my TV over here. I had ESPN on the other
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: day and it was a question. Everybody was answering this question.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Are the Chargers the favorite to win the AFC. I'm like,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: settle down, man, settle down, I said that I thought
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the Chargers had a pretty good shot to win their division.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I said they would absolutely make the playoffs. I mean,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: we're going a little bit too far here, and I'm
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: not even I thought the Broncos would take a step down.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I like the Chargers over the Broncos this year, and
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I still don't like the Chargers in this particular game.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It just looks like the books are begging you to
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: play the Chargers, like they just throw up the line
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: at minus two and a half Chargers at home. It
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: looks so easy to play the Chargers looks like a
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: trap to me. I like the Broncos in that game. Charles,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? At least for now I do. Thanks
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: for hanging out, man. Let's get into baseball. We don't
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: have WNBA today either. Although Phoenix I was able to
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: eliminate the New York Liberty, I mean, the Liberty could
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: not afford to lose that game at home. Man, That's
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: just that's what it came down to. So Phoenix has
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: moved on and they will be playing Minnesota in the
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: WNBA semifinals. I guess is where we're already at. So one.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: That was one series I got wrong in my bracket.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I had the Liberty winning that one series. But they
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: are out. The Returney champions have been defeated. You guys
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: are probably not gonna like my plays in Major League Baseball. Here.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: I want to get through this, man, don't want this
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: video to be huge. Did have that two hour whatever
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: video last night? Let's do this Atlanta at Detroit. Detroit's
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: looking like they just don't give a shit right now. Man,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: They're looking like they're coasting. But they can't really because
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: they could actually still lose their division. I mean, they
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: just got swept by Cleveland, which is bad for me too.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: It was a Red Sox fan because basically the last
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: wildcard spot is going to be the Red Sox or Cleveland.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: At this point, Cleveland sucks. They gotta stop winning to
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: their offense is terrible. Whatever. Detroit lost horribly at straight
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: ten to one, which maybe a loss like that will
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: refocus them the fact that they're losing ground against Cleveland here,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Detroit still should be kind of trying to get the
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: best seed that they can, at least in the playoffs.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, but at this point they got
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: to worry about Cleveland being behind. They got to make
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: sure they win this division. So maybe Detroit will finally
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: show up. I mean, a ten to one loss and
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: homing it's an Atlanta team that has nothing left to
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: play for is pretty inexcusable, man, So I don't know
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna do about that. Atlanta has a pretty
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: rested bullpen right now. The Detroit's is the slightly better
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: bullpen generally, but the rest situation is actually a little
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: bit in favor of Atlanta, which kind of negates the
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge a little bit Detroit. I will give them
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: the offensive edge, and they are better at home, so
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Detroit has some edges year. The starting pitching matchup. Whoops,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: as I go off of the page completely. Joey Wentz
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: suspicting for Atlanta. You know, I'm not much of a
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: fan of him, not just because he got all those
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: calls from that female umpire to ruin whatever play I
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: had in that game, I think it was an over.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Maybe you want to play an over in this game
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: and get back at that because Wentz, I mean, he
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: does not have good numbers this year, five point five
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: six ERA, one point five to two WHIP. He has
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: been better on the road though, three point five to
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: one road ERA, so he is on the road here.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: But again he's not that good. He's got a ten
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: point four or five ERA this month. He's been pretty
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: bad as of late, even though a fifteen to three
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: strike out rock ratio shows good command. But he's allowed
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: almost two hits per inning in his three starts this month.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, give me a break, man, I mean, that
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: is not good whatsoever. So he's been quite hitable. Detroit
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: very small eight at bat sample size, but they've done
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: well against him one strikeout, four walks, three seventy five
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: average one thousand and three thirty three oh ps. So
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: he looks like he is pretty fatable here, and he's
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: going up against Keeter Montero for Detroit, who sometimes he's
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: kind of more of an opener. So it looks like
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: this is a semi bullpen game for Detroit. Here he's
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: got a four point three to two ERA one point
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: three to eight whip. He's worse at home four point
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: five to nine homey Ira. I did have a five
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: inning shutout last time out. He got a full starter's
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: workload again last time out and did well against Miami.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Not sure that we're gonna see that again. I guess
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: would be you're gonna see somewhere in the neighborhood of
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: maybe three to four innings from him in this game,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: would be my guess, and then Detroit bullpen will come
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: into this game. So just that in mind. He might
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: do better though, because Atlanta only profile has ever seen
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: him before. He's over two because yeah, profars back when
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: it's too late. He comes back from the ped suspension,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: but he's over too with a walk off Montaro. So
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I do think Detroit does actually have the upper hand
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: and that starting pitching matchup, even though the money is
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with me. Seventy six percent tickets, only sixty seven
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Detroit. They're down for minus
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: one twenty to minus one to fifteen. The money is
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: saying Atlanta. I mean, it seems like the professional money
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: just keeps jumping on Atlanta every single time, and it's
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: just like, I don't know, man, it just don't. I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: don't buy it at this point. I don't even though Atlanta, Yeah,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're better than the record looks, but what
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: do you want at this point when they're just kind
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: of playing out the season? Detroit has a bit more
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: to play for here. I also do like the over,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: but the money's coming in towards the under, flipping from
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: nie juice to the over to being juiced to the under.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Eighty six percent of tickets only fifty eight percent of
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. I can't figure it out exactly,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: but I would have a slightly to Detroit and maybe
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: to the over in that one, but not a strong opinion.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and Minnesota are playing a double header here, so
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: they must have had a rain out earlier this season.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I would like Minnesota to win both of these games,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: but Minnesota has nothing to play for and Cleveland could
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: actually make the fucking playoffs. So what can you do? Man?
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Cleveland might win both of these games. I would be very,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: very angry if that were to happen. I mean, Cleveland,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't be here. Their offense is one of the
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: worst in baseball. They're not a very good team this year.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: The run differential is still negative. What they're doing is ridiculous,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: and they were sellers at the trade deadline, and so
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: we're Minnesota. Minnesota looks like they basically packed it in.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: But will Minnesota show up for this doubleheader against Cleveland?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Because it is a divisional series, they have a chance
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to spoil the season for their divisional foe here, So
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: maybe Cleveland, of course, as I'm angry about this, Cleveland,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: of course. One yesterday six to two, some Minnesota's lost
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. The starting pitching match up here,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: on the surface, looks like a shoot favorite Minnesota. The
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: bullpens don't. Cleveland does have the better bullpen. Minnesotas is terrible,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: so that is one advantage of Cleveland has it. Cleveland's
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: bullpen is less used. The starting pitching on Minnesota actually
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: has the better offense. Cleveland's offense is miserable, but on
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the surface you gotta think Minnesota is the better starting
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: pitcher here, but when you dig into it, they might
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: not even have the starting pitching edge here. Slay Chacone,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: he is pitching for Cleveland. He has okay numbers four
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: point three to nine ERA, one point two to whip
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit better on the road four point two
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: to three ERA on the road. He's been okay this
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: month over three starts, fifteen to four, strike a walk
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: ratio four point two six ERA, had an eight and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: an He shut out against Kansas City and then allowed
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: two runs against the White Sox last time out, recovering
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: from getting bombed by my Boston Red Sox, which was
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: a much needed win for the Red Sox. There the
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: other thing Chaconi does have going from besides the fact
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: that he was good in his last two starts against
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: weak opposition, but this is also weak opposition here. Minnesota's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: never faced him before, so he has an added edge
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: with the unfamiliarity here because he's mostly been in the
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: National League so far, so Minnesota's actually never faced him before.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So sometimes when a pitcher is decent like he is,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the offense hasn't faced him before, that offense has to
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: take a few times against him to figure him out,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: so he might have a little bit of an extra
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: edge there. Minnesota does have Joe Ryan pitching. He is
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: their ace, but he looks like he might have packed
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: it in for the season at this point, man, which
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: really worries me because normally I would say, yeah, he's
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: the better pitcher here, obviously, but he looks like he's
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: just coasting at the end of the season here. Man,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: They're just not in the right mental state. Three point
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: three to five VRRA one point oh to whip. He's
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: had a good season, a little bit better at home
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: three point two five R. But like I said, his
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: two starts this month, one at Kansas City gave up
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: five earned runs and four walks in two winnings against
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: a really bad Kansas City lineup in a picture friendly park.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign. He pitched a little bit
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: better against Arizona last time up, but only lasted four
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: innings in that one. Did at least hold him the
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: two eurn runs. But Ryan looks like he might be
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: packing it in man a ten point five ERA this month,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: not going deep into either start six to six strike
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio worries me quite a bit. Man. His
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against Cleveland, though, so if he actually
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: shows up, he can handle them. Ninety seven at bats against,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: a fifteen to four strike a walk ratio, one to
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: eighty six average allowed, five zero six ops. He's pretty
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: much dominated Cleveland in his history. But which Joe Ryan
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: is gonna show up here? Is the question? Like I mean, Minnesota,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: bad season for them, is he gonna show up and
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: actually want to win this game? It does look like
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is a public road underdog in this one, and
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: you know I talk about that, and I'm saying when
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: you see market reads like that, sixty eight, send tickets
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: and cash on Cleveland. Minnesota's down for minus one twenty
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: five to minus one seventeen, but they are a home
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: favorite here. Basically that means that you're getting a decent team, well,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: in this case, not really a decent team, but you're
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: getting a team that I guess in this case is
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: at least maybe almost as good as their opponent is
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: with this starting pitching matchup, at least at home and
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't want them, so that market reed does
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: kind of indicate Minnesota in this game. But I really
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: really worry about it, and it's a low total of
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, which I could see the arguments
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: for the under. I would have to make it a
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: first five inning under though Chaconi with his unfamiliarity, and
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: if Ryan actually shows up for once, he could certainly
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: do okay here. So I would not want to deal
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota's bullpen though, And that is the other issue.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: If you're gonna go even with the Minnesota side here,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I think you wou'd have to limit that to the
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: first five innings because Minnesota's bullpen is that much worse.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I will talk about Game two as well. Right now,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: just knock it out of the way at night. You
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: don't know what the bullpen situation is gonna be coming
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: into Game two. That it's difficult to handicap game twos
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: before game one starts, So the bullpen usage, we don't
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: know what it's gonna be. We do know the starting
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is gonna be Logan Allen against Bailey Ober
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Logan Allen for Cleveland four point three sixty IRA one
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: point four to three whip. That's not good. That is
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: too high. He's been worse on the road five point
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: oh one Roady Ira, So you might think, well, that
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: looks good for me as a Boston Red Sox fan
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: needing Cleveland to lose. Logan Allen's not that good, but
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: he's been decent this month. The two starts he went
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: five innings in each, one six strikeouts, two walks. I
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: mean that's all right, three point sixty RA. So he's
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: not pitching horribly at the moment. Cleveland did lose both
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: of those games, so their offense hasn't been good behind him.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: He has been good against Minnesota, although it's a small
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: twelve at bat sample sizing only of one hit a
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: single from Royce Lewis, four strikeouts, two walks, eighty three
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: average two ninety eight. Oh p Yes, So Logan Allen
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: has done well against Minnesota in a very limited sample,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: So not a whole lot you can take away from
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: that necessarily, But he might be better than Bailey ober Man.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Ober I like his command numbers usually like he doesn't
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: walk that many guys, but he's just been way too
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: hit aable. I don't know what the deal is. Man
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: he's got a five point one two ERA and one
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: point three to one WHIP. He had some injury issues
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: this year too, not a good season for him. Really.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: He is a little bit better at home four point
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: seventy five home ERA this month. He hasn't been that
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: bad with a four point nine to sixty RAY. I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: know that's not good, but he's got at least five
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: innings in every outing. He does have an eighteen to
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio, so, like I said, the
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: command numbers are at least there for him. He's facing
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: a weak Cleveland offense here, and he has done well
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: against them in the past one hundred and twenty at bats.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: He has a ridiculous thirty to four strike out walk
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: ratio against them, a one ninety two average a lot
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: of five to fifty one oh ps. So Ober has
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: done well against them. It looks like Cleveland is public
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: in both games, which is not that surprising. Seventy five
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: percent take a seventy eight percent of the cash on
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Cleveland here because they do have the better record. Public
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: is still over value in Cleveland. Minnesota is down for
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: minus one eighteen minus one oh nine though, so again,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even really know what I would want to
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: do with this game, and I can. I could see
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: another argument for a first five under in this one, though,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: because both starting pitchers have good matchup numbers and they've
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: both been in okay form this month, so I could
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: see that argument. The side is harder for me to
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: gauge though, in that game for sure. Uh So those
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on those games. Washington at New York
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the Mets got the win yesterday, and the Mets fighting
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to maintain the last wildcard spot. Washington, I mean, could
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: be motivated because they are facing one of their divisional
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: foes who is going to probably make the playoffs. So Washington, does,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: you know, have the ability. They probably have a little
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: bit of motivation year to show up against a team
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: in a spot like that. The Mets also somewhat embarrassed
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: them yesterday with the twelve to six win. Mets getting
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: wins when they need them to make sure they make
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. The Mets are probably gonna be a bit
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of an undervalued commodity in the playoffs, by the way,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that. I'm gonna have a playoff
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: special where I fill out my bracket or whatever, and
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I think Clint Russell is probably gonna join me to
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: talk about our playoff predictions as well. His team, the Padres,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: will be in the playoffs. Mind who may not be
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox this game. This looks like it's gonna
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: be another Mets win though, man. I mean, the Mets
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: have the edge everywhere in this game. They have the
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: better offense, they have the better bullpen. Washington's bullpen is atrocious,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: and they have the better starter. So it's like there's nothing
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: really going for Washington in this game. Really. Washington used
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of their relief pitchers yesterday. The Mets did
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: use a lot of theirs too, but the Mets still
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen. Washington's going with Kate Cavali. He's
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: a young dude, not a lot of familiarity with a
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: lot of hitters against somebody hasn't been that great. Four
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: point seven to six ERA, one point four to six whip.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: He's in really bad on the road seven point eight
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: five ERA this month, four point two ERA across three starts,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: not allowing any more than three on runs in any
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: of them, going exactly five innings, and each of them
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: is okay. But a nine to six strikeout walk ratio
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: isn't that good, so you got to dial it back
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit on this. His team did win all three,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: but two of them are against Miami and the other
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: ones against Pittsburgh, so the Mets are a different animal here.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: And the last time he faced good offenses Philadelphia and
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: then the Yankees. He didn't do that well in those
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: last two starts, although he did do well in his
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: first start against Philly. But I'm not expecting a ton
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: out of Cavali here, and he is unfamiliar to the Mets,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: so that might give him a little bit of an
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: edge because the Mets offense has to figure him out.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: But the Mets pitcher has the same advantage here, Nolan McLain,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: and he's been the way better of the two. He's
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: been real solid. This is his rookie season, one point
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: one nine ERA point nine eight WEB. I don't think
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: it'll even qualifies his rookie season, But this is his
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: first time pitching in the majors, I should say, and
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: he's been good. I think he's only had one bad start.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: He still has is zero ERA at home. I've given
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: out plays on his games a couple of times, and
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I believe we got wins on the unearned his first game,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: and then on the Mets side, I think against Philly
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: and I don't think I've given out any play since
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: then on his games, but I probably should have a
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: couple of times because he keeps doing well. The Mets
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: have won five his six outings. He's allowed two or
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: fewer on runs in every single outing. He's doing well.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: He's dealing it, man. He's got a forty to twelve
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: strike out walk racetho. He's allowed way fewer than one
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: hit per inning. He's on it. He's facing a pretty
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: bad Washington lineup here and they've never seen him before,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: so he has that added edge there too. Nolan McLain
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: is the better of these two starters. I mean, that's
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: I think that's pretty obvious. But you're paying a huge
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: price for the Mets. But I don't disagree with the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Mets side here. They'row up from minus two forty five
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: to minus two to fifty five, fifty three percent tickets,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of the cash coming in on the Mets.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: They have the matchup edge in every aspect of this game,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: and the motivational edge. So that's the way that it is.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to lay the minus one
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: and a half run line on the Mets, this might
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: be a spot where it makes more sense to do so,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: because they can hit enough that maybe they can get
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: over that threshold. I know, if they're winning, they won't
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: bat in the ninth inning, so that's a little bit
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: of a disadvantage there. But there's no way that I
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: would want anything to do with Washington in that game.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: So that's what I think. The Cubs at Cincinnati. The
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Cubs basically at this point seem like they're kind of
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: locked into their top wildcard spot. It's pretty likely that's
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: where they're going to land in the number four seed
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: in the National League, so they're kind of playing out
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: the stretch at this point. Cincinnati has more motivation, and
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati has won both games so far, and they won
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: for us with my only play on Thursday. Although Colin
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Ray almost beat us, I mean, he pitched way better
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: than I thought he would. Hunter Green got us there
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: with an excellent start, though Red's won again yesterday. The
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Cubs do have the better offense and the better bullpend here,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: but the motivation is absolutely on the side of the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Reds because the Reds are still potentially trying to get
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: that last wildcard spot. Man, they could still catch the
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Mets bullpen usage. The Reds did have a little bit
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: more bullpen usage yesterday, So yeah, the Cubs do have
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen here, better bullpen rest as well, But
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati has a starting pitching advantage here. Chicago's
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: going with Javier assad Who's he's okay. Four point two
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: to three e RA, a one point three whip. Uh,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: he's a he's a secular dictator man. He's got a
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: four point five r on the road, so his ERA
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: is worse on the road. His whip is a little
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: bit too high. The Cubs have won his last five outings,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: so they do win behind him. He hasn't allowed many runs.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: He's allowed more than three runs twice this short season
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: for him so far, and he hasn't ever allowed more
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: than four and runs this season, although he wasn't pitching
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: in Chicago's rotation until August, so it's been a very
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: short season for him. This month mediocre though, four point
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: seven e RA a five four strike out walk RA sho,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: that's not exactly good. Uh. I don't know why his
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: outing was so short last time out against Tampa, he
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: got pulled after two and a third innings. Not sure
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: why because he wasn't that bad, hasn't hadn't allowed any
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: runs yet, but his numbers against the Reds are not good.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Sixty five at bats, twenty two to nine strike a
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. It's a bit too many walks three to
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: zero eight batting average allowed, eight to thirty eight ohps,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: so the Reds haven't been able to hit him in
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the past, and the Reds have Zach Ltel pitching. He's
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: had a pretty good season between now Tampa and the
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Reds pitching in hitter friendly parks with both teams. Uh
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: still three point eight sixty RA, one point one to
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: one whip that's pretty good. His numbers are actually better
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: at home with those with both of those teams three
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: point six seventy RA at home, so go figure. He
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: tends to not walk a lot of guys. That is
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: his advantage because he does allow too many home runs,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: but he doesn't walk a lot of guys, doesn't put
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys on base this month as a
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: thirteen to two strike out walk ratio, but he's allowed
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: four home runs, so he has a six point one
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: ninety IRA, but pretty much it all. All the damage
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: came against Toronto for the most part, although last outing
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: you did give up four and runs to Saint Louis
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: on the road, although Saint Louis had just seen him
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: shortly before that, so maybe he was kind of in
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: line to do a little bit worse against them because
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: they were more familiar with them. The next time, I'll
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: tell against the Cubs, though, he actually does have good numbers.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: In fifty eight at bats fourteen to seven strikeout walk
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: ratio is not good, but a one to ninety batting
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: average allowed and six thirty nine ops allowed, so Lattel
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: does have the better of the matchup numbers here. I
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: think he is probably better than a sod. The money's
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with Cincinnati, though, I would probably only lean to
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati in this game, but I maybe limited to first
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: five innings though, just because they do have a little
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: bit of a disadvantage in the bullpen. Seventy eight percent
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash on the red,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: so they're public with the money going against it. I'm
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with the market all over the place, man, but
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not disagreeing with it. On my three plays. I'm
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: gonna give out here though, uh minus one of five
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: up to minus one eleven is the price on Cincinnati
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: here the small favorite here, and money seems to be
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: coming in a bit on the under. The totals kind
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: of just sitting at nine sixty percent of tickets seventy
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: five percent of cash in the under. If I was
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: gonna go under, I think I don't know. I don't
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: even think I would want to even touch that, man.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: I think Littel just does have a starting pitching advantage
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: in that. One will skip A's and Pirates because I'm
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: gonna give a play on that one that's probably gonna
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: be the ugliest of all of them, and that is
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: an ugly game. I do have one on Red Sox
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa as well, so we'll skip that for now. Yankees Baltimore.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: As I said, Baltimore did get the win yesterday. Baltimore
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: playing decently here down the stretch and won four of
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the last five games with the Yankees at their place.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's showing up for this series, man, because they have
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a chance to beat the Yankees, so it's the type
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: of game they will show up for even though they
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: don't have anything else to play for, The Yankees are
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: still trying to get a wild card spot and potentially
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: take over the division. So there's a motivation on both sides,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: even if it is a little bit more on the
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Yankees side. Uh, both teams have bad bullpends. The Yankees
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: is actually a little bit less bad. Usage is pretty similar.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Both teams just kind of moderate usage. So you gotta
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: give the Yankees the bullpen edge. They do have the
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: starting they do have the excuse me, hitting edge. Do
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: they have the starting pitching edge? Though probably yes. I mean,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: on the surface, it seems like it's pretty obvious that
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: they do, although when you dig into the matchup, I
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: mean it's a little bit more questionable. Carlos Redon is
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Yankees. Good season for him, three point
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: one one ERA, one point oh seven whip. He is
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road three point three
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: to two ERA. He's allowed two or fewer on runs
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: and a lot of starts in a row going all
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the way back to his first start in August was
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the last time he allowed more than that, So like
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: eight straight starts that's been the case. So that's good. Obviously.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: His strike a walk ratio is turned around this month,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: going six innings in each of his outings thirteen to
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: four strike a walk ratio, so he is pitching better
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: this month again two point five ERA after last month
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: he had way too many walks but still limited the damage.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: So he's in better form right now. But his numbers
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: are actually not good against Baltimore. In forty eight at bats,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: sixteen to two strikeout walk races is obviously quite good,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: but he's allowed of three twelve average and one thoty
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: eight ohps and five home runs to them with two
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: from Henderson, so Baltimore has done some damage against him man,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: so not exactly the greatest matchup for him. Baltimore has
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Tomo Yuki Sugano pitching. He's had an alright season. It's
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: been his first season in the majors. It's been up
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: and down. He's had an unfamiliarity edge against some opponents.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: He's been bad at some points this year. He's done
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit better again, I think lately, but I'll
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: have to look in a second four point three to
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: nine ERA, one point three to two whip. I mean,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: nothing special there, but you know, kind of at least
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: numbers where you kind of fill out a rotation. At
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: least he's a little bit better at home four point
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: three to one home. The ra last start was good
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: at Toronto. He held them to wonner in run, although
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: they still lo the game, but it wasn't his fault.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Six innings, four strikeouts, no walks. Very good start from
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: him there. The prior three starts were all ugly though,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: giving up three or more and runs and all of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: them and the prior too. He failed to even make
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: it out of the fourth inning in either one, so
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: that's not a great sign against the Dodgers though good offense.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: The other one against San Francisco not good. Not a
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: good offense. A Sugano against the Yankees hasn't done well
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: though thirty six at bats not a huge sample, but
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: eleven to four strike out walk ratio three to zero
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: six average, allowed seven to sixty four ohps. I think
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the over in this game. I mean,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: it seems like it's probably probably gonna be public just
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: because it's a Yankee game. You know, the public's probably
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: gonna come in that way. The money's totally disagreeing with
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: me on it, but both bullpens are bad. Both starting
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: pitchers have bad matchup numbers, So I think an over
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: is the way to look in this game. The total
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: is fairly high at nine, although it flipped a nine
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: juice to the under. Eighty one percent of tickets in
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: the over eighty four percent of the cash on the under.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: So the money is disagreeing with me again, and disagree
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: with the public coming in on the under. I'm disagreeing
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: with the market on a ton of these games, man.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I would lean over in that one. Miami at Texas,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: This one almost made my card. I would lean to
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Texas in this game. I think they do have a
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: pretty big pitching edge in this game, at least with
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching. But I worry a little bit about
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: it because what is Texas's mindset going to be? Because
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: they know they're not going to make the playoffs now.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: I mean they've lost five games in a row. I
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: kind of talked about that yesterday. They're done. Texas is done, man.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know they're not mathematically eliminated, but there's
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: six games back in the division now, they're behind Cleveland
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: and the wildcard race. I think they are probably four
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: at least four games out of the last wildcard spot now,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: so it's not good for Texas, man, So now what
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: is their mindset going to be playing out the stretch here?
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: They lost again extra innings last night. Brutal loss for them,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: brutal loss for me. On the under, I don't want
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: to mention it anymore. Texas does have a better bullpenal
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: though they actually used more of their bullpen, say a
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: lot of bullpen usage yesterday because the game went into
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: extra innings. Texas still I would give them the bullpen
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: edge here though they do have the better bullpen. Miami
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: has the better offense. Texas's offense just isn't good. But
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Texas does have the pitching edge any throughout this game
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: because the starting pitching I think is pretty heavily in
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: favor of Texas. Adam Mazer is pitching for the Marlins.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Four point eight five ERA, one point four to six
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: whip for him, not good numbers, worse than the road
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: five point four RA on the road. He hasn't pitched
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: that much this year, but so he's not wearing down
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: or anything. He's just not that good. Four point four
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: to one ERA in ten to five strike out walk
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: race here in three outings this month. Didn't dwell in
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: either outing against Washington and then shut out Detroit for
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: six innings or sorry, gave up two unearned runs against Detroit.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: So weird that he pitched better against Detroit than Washington.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Who knows. Texas has a very limited amount of at
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: bats against him eight at bats, but they have a
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: five hundred average and thirteen oh six ps against him
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: two to one strike a walk ratio, so he hasn't
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: done particularly well against Texas, even though it's a limited sample.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Jack Lighter, who is absolutely the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: more talented of the two bitchers, and he's starting to
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: find his way in the majors after I think Texas
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: kind of rushed him to the majors. He's been a
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: bit better more recently. Three point a two ERA, one
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: point two to nine whip is still too high, but
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: he's good at home. Three point twenty seven home ERA
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: this month. Four point one five ERA isn't that impressive,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: but he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: of his outings. Just kind of had a shorter outing
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee. What can you do in Milwaukee's a good offense.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: He's pitched pretty well against some solid offenses recently at
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: the A's very difficult park at Arizona also a difficult
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: park homing or as soon as he road against Houston
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: as well, so even on the road he's actually been
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: better recently, so I think he is in better form
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: right now. Sixteen to six strike a walk raceire this
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: month is not amazing, but it's not horrible, and Miami's
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: never seen lighter before, so he actually has an unfamiliarity
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: ed year too. So if you're gonna play this game,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: I think you got to play Texas. But it's a
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: little bit of a price. They're sitting at minus one fifty.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: They are public eighty percent of the tickets ninety six
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash, so the public is not always wrong.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: I think that's the way I would lean. I mean,
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'd want to go as far
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: as a run line on Texas though, because the price
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: is a little bit too high. I think what you
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: could do is probably do a half bet on the
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: run line, half bet on the money line, and then
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: at least if they win, you'll win a slight amount
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: of money. If they just win by one, you lose
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the run line part of it, you'll still win the
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: money line part of it, which means you win money
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: if you bet both haves to win the same amount.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of those are my feelings on that
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: one man. So I do think Texas is actually the
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: right side there, But you got to worry about their
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: mindset right now, being maybe defeated after all what's happened recently.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna make the playoffs now, fifty tickets, ninety
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. The totals drop
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: from off of that key number nine or that was
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: heavily juiced to the under already down to eight and
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean the arguments for that, I guess
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: would just be kind of similar to what I said yesterday.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: The offenses aren't really that good, a lot of unfamiliarity
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: with that starting pitching matchup. If you wanted to go under,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: I think you got to do it in the first
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: five though, But I worry about Mazer, So I think
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: the way to play that game is really Texas. But yeah,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: first five under would if you're gonna play the under,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: would be the way that I would do it, because
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: the Bullpens are pretty unrested right now. Yeah, you cashed
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: it out ninety percent of the total winnings. The cash
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: out is always it's a scam still though, man, because
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: again ninety percent was still actually not good enough because
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: there was like almost no chance that that was going
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: to lose at that point on that und If you're
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: talking about the under, yeah, like it was like ninety
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: nine percent to go under at that point, So ninety
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: percent it's still not worth it. The cash out is
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: still a scam. Uh yeah, skip it. I mean there's
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: absolutely That's how ridiculous that was. There was so little
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: chance that it was gonna wind up going over at
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: that point that even getting ninety percent on the cash
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: out was actually not enough. That's how likely it was
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: that game was gonna fall on the under at that point.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: It's ridiculous. Texas. Yeah, they're slumping, They're they're done. They're
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: not gonna make the playoffs, man, I mean they technically
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: still could, but it's not gonna happen. San Diego at
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. San Diego lost yesterday four to three.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: White Sox actually playing a decent baseball kind of down
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: the stretch. They're probably not as bad as the horrific
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: record looks at the very least, and White Sox did
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: go on a slide again here after they were playing
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: decent for a while. They lost six games in a row,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: but they broke that losing streak, you know. I talk
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: about when a team breaks a losing streak, sometimes it
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: helps them. It gives them some momentum carrying over into
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: the next game. But San Diego's got something to play
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: for here. They're trying to make the playoffs. They're going
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: to be in one of the wildcard spots. I mean,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: they're not going to fall to where the Mets are.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: I don't even think it's possible this point. I think maybe,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: I guess technically maybe it still is, but it's not
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. They could potentially still win the division, although
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: that's looking unlikely now. So San Diego's almost locked into
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: their wild card spot now, So how to the number
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: five seed in the NL? So how motivated are they
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be here? I don't know. White Sox playing out
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: the stretch here might show up, you know, just because
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: they did win yesterday. It gives them some new momentum.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: San Diego does have a significantly better bullpen here, didn't
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: use a lot of it. Yesterday either, so they have
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: a big bullpen edge here. White Sox didn't use many
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: much of theirs either, but a little bit more. San
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Diego has the better offense too. That's just how bad
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: the White Sox offense is. San Diego probably has the
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: better starter or two with you, Darvish, but he is
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: a bit of a question mark and he's a little
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: bit older now. Five point six y three ERA not good,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: but one point one four whip isn't that bad. Indicates
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: that as ERA should probably be lower than it is
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: right now. He's been really bad on the road so far,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: those seven point eighty six roadra He came back from
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: in kind of late into the season in July, so
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: you don't have to worry about him wearing down. But
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: he's been fairly consistent though actually but consistently mediocre. Basically,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: he comes out there and allows like three ear in
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: runs most of the time. He goes out there this
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: month as a really impressive eighteen to two strike out
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, but he's allowed too many runs five point
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: five two ERA, too many hits. He's allowed four home runs,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: so you gotta worry about him alowing too many hits
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: here and His numbers against the White Sox are actually
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: not good, not good. In twenty six at bats, seven
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk ratio. I know it's a
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: small sample size, but three forty six average allowed, one thousand,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: two thirty nine oh ps. That doesn't look very good.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Yendris Gomez, who was I believe
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: on the Dodgers earlier this year, maybe on the Yankees
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: as well. He's on the White Sox now. He's been
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: not great. Four point nine to one RA in the
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: season across all those different teams. One point four to
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: two WHIP that's pretty bad. Better at home four point
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: three four ERA at home, he's been okay this month
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox four point two ERA, fourteen to
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: three strikeout walk ratio is pretty solid. So he's in
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: decent form right now. Numbers against San Diego not a
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: lot of a sample here at all. They only have
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: two hitters I've ever seen him before, Heglesius and Loreano.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: They're one for four. The only hit is a double
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: from Loreano. No strikeouts, no walks. What do we want
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: to do with that game? Man? I mean, San Diego's
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: just really really public. Ninety two percent to take its
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on them, and they've
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: dropped from minus one seventy five to minus one sixty.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Seems like you could, if you want to maybe take
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: a shot with the White Sox here, maybe a plus
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: one and a half run line on this one, although
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: actually I would probably go plus a half run in
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the first five innings or whatever it is instead of
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: full game, because you really don't want the White Sox
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: bullpen against San Diego's bullpen. But Gomez does maybe have
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: a chance to dual Darvish through the first five innings
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: here though, so maybe that is actually the way it
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: would lean in this game. As ridiculous as that the
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: sounds money's also coming in in the under in that one.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: For what it's worth, I don't really have that much
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: of a feel on that one total drop for eight
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: and a half juice the over to eight and a half,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: eight eighty one percent of tickets on the over, in
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of cash on the under, Dodgers over
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. What was the I thought the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: total in the Dodgers game last night was like seven
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: and a half, wasn't it? Because it was like Kershaw
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: against uh against Ray, right, I thought, I said, I
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: lean to the over in that game, right, But I
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: think the total, the total I was pretty sure was
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: lower than that because I think the game did landed
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: on nine, I think, so I thought it went over,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: So I thought I was right on that. And I
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: had a slight lean to the Dodgers side in that
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: game too, and that also would have been a winner.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw didn't do that well, but Ray did worse.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: And Kershaw got you know, the standing ovation because he's, uh,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: he's you know, gonna retire after this year, so that
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: was his final home game except if he pitches in
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. See at Houston. This is still a huge series.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: This is a battle for the division. Both these teams
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: at this point are pretty much gonna make the playoffs,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: even though I think Houston is actually tied with the
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Red Sox in the last wildcard spot, so maybe not
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: so if you're a Red Sox fan like me at
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: this point, you actually have to root for Seattle to
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: sweep Houston here, but that's probably not gonna happen in
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Houston because you need one team to sweep the other
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: or kind of knock the other team down. Houston, as
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: I said, did lose yesterday. That was my one real
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: loss yesterday, which I shouldn't have lost on the other loss.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: But it's a big series, man. These teams are fighting
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: for the division. Winning the division matters. Both these teams
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: are better at home than they are on the road,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: which I pointed out yesterday, and Houston is of course
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the home team here, so that is an advantage for Houston.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: These teams have similar offenses, Seattle's is slightly better and
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: similar bullpends. I think Seattle's might be slightly better, but
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Houston a little bit more rested after yesterday. Bullpen wise,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: similar use, but I think Houston actually might have just
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: a slight bullpen edge coming into this one. George Kirby
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Seattle. He's been alright. I think he's
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: had some injuries to deal with this year too. Four
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: point four to sixty IRA, one point two to three whip.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Not as good as you usually see out of him.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: He's not good on the road. Again, with the Seattle pitchers,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: some of them are much worse on the road, and
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: he's one of them. Five point seven to four roadyray,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: so he is fadable on the road. This month he
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: has a seventeen to two strikeout walk ratio. But I
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: mean this month he's been all over the place. He
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: had fourteen strikeouts in his last outing against Ana. I'm
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: just ridiculous. And he started the month getting rocked at
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I know that's a very hit or friendly ballpark,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: but he has outings like that where he just gets bombed.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: So with Kirby, it's a roller coast, so like you
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: might get an excellent start out of him or you
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: might get absolute trash. He has an eight point seven
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: to sixty iray this month, but the seventeen to two
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: strike out walk racier because he's a lot twenty hits
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: and twelve and the third innings it's crazy man, really
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: good command numberus, but he's been way too hit. His
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: numbers against Houston are good though, in one hundred and
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: eighteen at bats, twenty two to two strike out walk ratio,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: two to fifty batting average five eighty three oh ps.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: So Kirby, he's done well against Houston in the past,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: but he's not really trustworthy on the road. He's going
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: up against from ber Valdez. You want to talk about untrustworthy,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: he seems like he's losing his mind this month. So
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: a good season, but he's not pitching well right now.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Three point five nine ERA, one point two to two
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: whip on the season, that's pretty good. He is way
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: better at home. He has a two point two to
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: one homye ira, but he's been really bad this month
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: seven point eight eight ERA. Every one of his starts
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: pretty much has been ugly, except he pitched okay at
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Texas earlier in the month, but it hasn't been a
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: good month for him at all. Fifteen to six strike
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: up walk ratio isn't really that good either, too many walks.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: He's allowed four home runs this month. He's definitely out
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: of form right now. Man, So tough to trust Valdez
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: right now. His numbers against Seattle or mediocre and two
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: hundred and one bats they're definitely familiar with them. Fifty six strikeouts,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: twenty four walks. That is again way too many walks.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Two sixty four average a lot isn't too bad. Seven
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: to sixty ops a little bit on the higher side there.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: So I don't really trust either of these starting pitchers
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: in this game. I mean, the bullpens are fairly trustworthy,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: but in this game, and the money is coming in
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: on the under. It's a low total. It's seven and
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: a half juice to the over, sixty four percent tickets
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: on the over, seventy three percent of cash on the under.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I love that man, to be honest,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: I could see both starters may be potentially struggling because
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: her Kirbie's not good on the road. Valdez is not
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: a good recent form, not that great against Seattle. So
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: how do you? I mean, it's very difficult to handicap
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: this game because the factors that I look for kind
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: of go both ways. They go against each other. Uh,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: the money is saying under. I mean the bullpens might
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: help you out if you go under full game would
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: make sense because you want the bullpens to be included. There.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Houston down for minus one ten to minus one oh
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: five of them money line fifty ticket sixty two the
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: cash on them, so Houston is getting some of the money.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: When I first looked at this, I said, yeah, Houston
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: probably makes sense because Valdez is way better at home
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: and Kirby's way worse on the road. But then when
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: you look at the matchup numbers, they go against that.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: So it's really difficult to even say what I would
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: want to do with this game, man, I mean, other
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: than leave it alone. Obviously, it's just too difficult to handicap.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: And then of course Jay's Royals. I'm gonna give out
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: a play on that one. It was seven. I mean
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: that's like, yeah, I mean nine and a half is
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: just is so different from seven. I mean it's they're
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: in a different world. Man. I would not have played
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: that over the nine and a half. I mean, nine
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: is a key number. You needed to play that, Yeah,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: before the game started. Oh god, no, no, don't chase.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Although if you're just if you're just doing it for fun,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's fine. We already talked about Cleveland
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Minnesota double header Milwaukee at Saint Loui. With Milwaukee, I mean,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: they're still trying to ensure that they get the top
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: spot the home field throughout the playoffs, because it's questionable
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: right now. I think they're really close to Philadelphia right now,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is playing really well. Saint Louis doesn't really have
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: anything left to play for except they will show up
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: in this series because they get to play against the Brewers.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: It's a divisional series against the top team in the division.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: So Saint Louis did show up yesterday and won the
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: game seven to one. Missierowski did not have a good game.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: There's something a little bit wrong with that guy right now. Man,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on, but something's wrong. Saint
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Louis has the better of these two bullpens. They didn't
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: use a whole lot of the bullpen yesterday. Milwaukee they
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: got some injuries to deal with in their bullpen. They
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: use a little bit more of their bullpen yesterday. Their
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: bullpend could be a question coming into the playoffs. Man,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Even though Milwaukee is a good road team, this starting
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup doesn't look that great to me either. Man.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: On the surface, it looks like, oh, Milwaukee has one
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: of these young, kind of unfamiliar pitchers up against unk
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: veteran pitcher for Saint Louis, who is not very good.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: It almost looks kind of obvious that Milwaukee is the
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: better starting pitcher. But I'm not really so sure about that.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: When you start digging into the numbers. Milwaukee does have
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: the better offense, and they are better on the road.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: They got Chad Patrick pitching, which I just alluded to
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: decent numbers for him. Three point six four ERA, one
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: point two eight whip is a bit too high. He
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: isn't as good on the road though, four point six
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: ERA on the road, so that's a little bit worrisome.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: And if you look at how they've been using him recently,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: his last two outings were both openers. I think he
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: went one inning in each of them. One was a
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: shutout inning against Saint Louis and the other was a
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: shutout inning, which I believe and wasn't an immaculate inning.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, because he had he didn't allow anything
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: and he struck out everybody. But I guess the immaculate
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: inning you need to not throw any balls, so I
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: don't know if he did that. But it was a
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: clean inning with all strikeouts against Anaheim last time up.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: So based on what they're doing recently with Patrick, I
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: don't know how long he's gonna go in this game.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: So it's very about the handicap this game because maybe
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: they're even trying to save him for the playoffs right
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: now because kin Tana just went down, so I think
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be gone for the playoffs. So Patrick might
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: be that like last guy in the rotation potentially coming
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs, so they might be trying to make
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: sure they don't wear him out. So we don't know
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: how he's gonna be used in this game. Man. So
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I mean Milwaukee at this point, they do know they're
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: gonna make the playoffs. They already won the division, I'm
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: pretty sure, or I think it's maybe not mathematically, but
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: they're gonna win the division, so they might be kind
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: of getting themselves ready for the playoffs now too. Patrick
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: against Saint Louis only fifteen at bats against some one strikeout,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: two walks to sixty seven average six twenty oh ps,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: so his numbers are okay. Saint Louis doesn't have a
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: very weak offense. But again, I don't know how many
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: innings Patrick is even gonna throw in this game. It
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: might wind up being somewhat of a bull end game
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: from Milwaukee. Here. Miles Mikolas is pitching for Saint Louis.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: He'll probably actually be the one to go deeper in
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: this game unless he gets absolutely bombed. His numbers aren't
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: good four point eighty RA one point three to one whip,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: but good enough to stick in the rotation. He is
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: actually way better at home though, three point four ERA
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: at home. So I said, when you start digging into this,
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: it's like, I don't know, Micholas not really that bad
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: as of Lady's allowed two or fewer on runs and
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: four starts in a row two point eight one ERA
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: this month. Milwaukee did just see him. He just faced them.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: He went five innings, He did pretty well. He allowed
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: two runs which were both on solo homers at Milwaukee,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: and he went had five strikeouts, no walk so he
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well in that outing a seven to two
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio. Not a high strike up rate,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: but he's not putting a lot of guys on base
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: this month. His numbers against Milwaukee are actually pretty good.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: In one hundred and fifty nine at bats, thirty seven
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: to eleven strike out walk ratio, two thirty nine average.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: He's allowed a little bit of power to them though,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: nine home runs so multiple from Yelich and Hoskins, kind
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: of the usual suspects there. Seven twenty eight ohps allowed
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: to them is still not really that high though, So
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: when you start digging into it, like I said, it
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: looks a little bit more questionable. As far as I'm Milwaukee.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: They're a favorite on the road, up for minus one
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: thirty to minus one thirty five, eighty eight percent of tickets,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on them money coming
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: in on Milwaukee, man, I mean, I might slightly lean
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: to Saint Louis to be honest in this one, because
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: you don't even know what the pitching is gonna look
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: like for Milwaukee here. Saint Louis does have the better bullpen,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: it's just their offense sucks. But Micholas might actually give
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: you a decent start again here. But Milwaukee did just
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: see him, but they're already familiar with him, so I
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: don't know if that really matters that much. So you
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: are getting an anti public home underdog at the very
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: least five dollars bets. Yeah, I mean doing it for
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: some entertainment. The ugliest series that we have going on
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: right now, Anaheim and Colorado. I mean, these are two
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: teams that are both out of it. They're both really bad.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: It's the worst team in the AL against the worst
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: team in the NL based on run differential. Both bullpens
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: are awful, the offenses are not that impressive, though the
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: offense is better on the side of Anaheim and I
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: don't even know which bullpen is worse. They're both terrible.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Colorado won yesterday and that broke a low street for them,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: you know. I talk about that they broke a five
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: game lost stree. That could give them a little bit
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: of momentum coming into this one. Anaheim probably not too
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: familiar with playing in the elevation of Colorado here, so
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a disadvantage for them there Colorado.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: I think he was a little bit more of their
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen yes today. What excusing, Yeah, Anaheim used a little
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: bit less of their bullpen. I actually don't even know
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: which of the bullpens is worse. I don't even know.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: I think I only have the hitting stats up right now.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I don't have the relief pitching stats up right now.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: But I don't really care that much. Both bullpens suck.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Kyle Hendrix is pitching for Anaheim. Not great for him
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: this season five point oh one ERA, one point three
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: two whip. He's been worse on the road five point
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: seven to eight roadra He definitely could struggle in course field, especially,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: you know, because this is a high elevation. It's a
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: hitter in front of the park, and especially given that
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: in a pitcher friendly park last time out at Seattle
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: he got wrecked for nineer and runs in three and
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: a third. That's not a good sign. Six point zero
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: sixty RA this month after his previous two starts are
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: actually pretty solid, although he didn't have any strike cuts
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: in one of them against the Royals, which is a
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: little bit concerning. Twelve to six strike up walk ratio
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: this month, so Hendrix, he's not in great form right now.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not great against Colorado and forty nine
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: at bats five to three strike out walk ratio two
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: sixty five average allowed, seven fifty seven ops. That's not great,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: so he may not do great here. He's going up
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: against Herman Marquez for Colorado. Not good numbers from him
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: six point seven to three ERA, one point seven to
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: seven whip really bad. He's actually slightly better in course
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: field six point four five ERA is still not good
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: though he got trashed at his last down. He had
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park too at San Diego. Gave seven
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: earned runs and two and a third no strikeouts. Ugly
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: month for him. Eleven point six eighty RA, four to
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: six strike out walk ratio, so both of these pictures
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: look pretty fatable here. His numbers are not great against Anaheim.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: It's a small twenty five at bat sample, but seven
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: to seven strike out walk ratio. He's actually allowed no
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: extra base hits though, a two way eighty batting average
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: but a slightly low ish seven eighteen ops. But I
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: don't trust any of the pitching involved in this game
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: at all. Starters, bullpends, don't trust any of it. So
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: I would kind of lead to an over here. I'm
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: the totals high. Obviously, it's a course field. It's at
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half. The money and the public seem
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: to all just kind of agree on the over. Ninety
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets ninety six percent of cash on
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: the over. That is probably what I would do in
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: this game. Anaheim is a road favorite, with the money
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: coming in against them, down for minus one twenty five
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: to minus one, nineteen eighty nine percent of tickets, only
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent of cash on them. I mean, I
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: guess I wouldn't really disagree with it, but I don't
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: know how you can. I mean, if you're playing the
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: rocky side there, it's basically just because you're saying Anaheim's
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: just in an unfamiliar venue for the most part. I mean,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: I don't really see a whole lot else there. Philadelphia
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: at Arizona. Philadelphia won yesterday in the first game of
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: this series, eight to two. Arizona. They know they're out
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: of it. They're sitting at five hundred here, but I
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: mean it's the Phillies coming into their place. Phillies beat
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: them yesterday, so Arizona probably is still gonna show up
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: for a series like this. Philadelphia, they're trying to catch Milwaukee, man,
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: and that's crazy. They could overtake Milwaukee because they don't
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: really have that much other reason to be motivated at
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: this point. They could just coast in the Nlest. I
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: think they've already clinched the NL East or I mean,
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure they have. There's not that many games left,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: so Philadelphia might be thinking about that. If they just clinched,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: that might be a reason to maybe go against them.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they did, though. Usually I see
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: it here in the in the recent news, but I
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: don't see it there. Both these teams have bad bullpens.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: Phillies is actually the slightly less bad of the two,
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: and they didn't use much of their bullpen over the
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: last two days. Their bullpen is pretty rested. At least
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams played on Thursday. I don't think so.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: Arizona somewhat sitting there bullpend and they used some of
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: their bullpend last night, so Philadelphia does have the bullpen
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: advantage in this game. Both teams can hit, although Philadelphia's
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: is the slightly better offense far as far as it started. Pitching.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Aaron Nola is pitching for Philadelphia. He's coming back from
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: like Tommy John surgery. I think he's had a really
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: really bad season six point four to four ERA, one
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: point four to three whip, although he's shown signs of
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: maybe getting somewhat back to his former self, although I'm
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: not ready to say that that's the case yet. He's
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: been bad on the road. A seven e RA on
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: the road. That's ugly this month. Eighteen to five strike
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio looks good. That looks like the old
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Nola good strike out walk ratio. But at six point
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: three five ERA, he's a lot a lot of runs
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: this month. But maybe he's getting a little bit unlucky
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: because he hasn't allowed that many hits. So it's like
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: the runs are just kind of coming at inopportune times. Man.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: I know, I faded him. I gave out Kansas City
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: as a play last weekend and got that one right.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: It was more about the situation, but it was also
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: about fate Nola. Nola, he didn't do well, but he
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: got a little bit unlucky, I would say, in that game.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: So I think maybe Nola is actually starting to come
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: back into form a little bit here, and it's just
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: not showing with the amount of runs that he's given
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: up so far. His numbers against Arizona aren't really that
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: good though. In ninety at bats, twenty seven to four
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is really good. Two sixty seven
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: batting average and eight oh five ops allowed is not
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: that good though, So that's a little bit worries some
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: Zach Collan is pitching for Arizona. He's starting to turn
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: his season around as well. He's got a four point
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: seven three ERA, which I still is I still, I
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: know that's not that I I know that's still not
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: that good, one point two five whip getting into tolerable territory.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: He's actually now better at home. He was better on
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: the road for a while, but now he's been pitching
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: better as of late, and he actually got way better
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: at home. He's got a four point six one ERA
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: at home now, which is better now than his road ERA.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Last two months, his ERA has been in the twos.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or four un runs in all but
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: one outing at San Francisco, which doesn't get that great
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: of a sign, but uh, the fact he's allowed two
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: or fewer and runs and every other outing since the
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: beginning of August is a pretty good sign. Two point
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: eight ninety r RA and three starts this month, fourteen
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: to five strike a walk ratio. Granted it was against
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: Texas and San Francisco twice, so those offenses aren't good.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's is, and they're okay against Gallan and one hundred
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: and six at bats twenty three to eleven strike a
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: walk ratio two sixty four average, seven eighty six ops.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: They can hit him okay. So this is a difficult,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: difficult handicap for me as well. Man, it looks like
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: the money is kind of coming on the Philly side.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Arizona's up for minus one to ten to minutes one
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: eleven fifty percent and take it sixty nine percent of
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in a Philly so maybe thinking that
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: nol is a bit undervalued right now with his ra
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: looking so bad. It's a high total. It's dropped a
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: little bit from nine juice to the over to nine
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent and takets ninety six percent of the
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: cash coming on the over. Obviously, if you're going over,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: you want to fade the bullpens because the bullpens are
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: not very good. So I don't really have much of
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: a disagreement with the over. I mean, both pitchers might
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: be mediocre in this outing. It's difficult to say, man,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: it is difficult to gauge this game. So I know
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: usually I'm gonna give out an opinion at least on
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: most games, but somewhat difficult in some of these games.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: And then San Francisco at the Dodgers is the last
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: game on the schedule. Dodgers have won three in a row.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: They now have a four game lead over San Diego,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: so they might start going into cruise control a little bit.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: It could be in a little bit of a letdown
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: mode here because they've beaten San Francisco twice. Big, big
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: emotional game for Kershaw last night, so Dodgers might be
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: in a little bit of an emotional letdown after that
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: they got the win for Kershaw. I don't even know
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: if I want to touch San Francisco though, I mean,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: you know they're gonna I mean, i'd probably get aids
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: if I did. Oh no, now I'm gonna get new it.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: I can't say that San Francisco. I mean, you know
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: they're just playing out the stretcher. Then you know they'll
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: show up for a series against the Dodgers, though, especially
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: when they've lost the first two games. San Francisco does
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen. The usage wasn't that high for them.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Last couple of days, Dodgers have used more of their bullpen,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: so it's definitely a bullpen edge for San Francisco. Dodgers
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: have the better hitting though by far, and they're better
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: at home. Uh. Starting pitching, though, looks like the Dodgers
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: do have the I mean, they definitely have the better
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher. Kaiwai Tang is pitching for San Francisco. He's
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: showing some glimpses at least. He's got bad numbers on
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: the season six point four to one ERA, one point
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: six to one WHIP. He is better on the road
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: five point eight five ERA this month, he actually has
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: a really high strikeout rate twenty one strikeouts in thirteen
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: to third innings, six walks, four point oh five. Vra
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: doesn't last long into these games, though. He's only gone
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: five or more innings once this month and twice this season.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: He's still young, you know, getting his bearings. He's starting
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: to pitch a little bit better, I guess, I mean,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: definitely has a lot of strikeouts potential, though it looks
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: like and the Dodgers have never seen him before, so
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: maybe Tang will be a little bit better than it
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: looks like on the surface. So I still don't think
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: I would trust him. He's got to go up against
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: Tyler Glass though, who obviously is an established pitcher and
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: is good three point oh six ERA, one point zero
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: three WHIP. He's had some injury issues this season. When
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: he has pitched, he's been good two point three to
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: eight home Y, so he's good at home as well.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: Better at home. He's starting to pitch like his old self, man.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, his last three outings he's gone six to
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: two thirds or more and all of them allowed three
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs, and all of them he's allowed
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs, and actually all but one
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: outing going all the way back to early April, all
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: but one outing since coming back from injury. He came
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: back in July, so he's in their rotation for the playoffs,
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: which they're gonna need. Obviously. His numbers are not as
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: good as you would think against the Giants, though, because
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: they're not a good offense. But in seventy seven at bats,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: twenty to nine strike a walk ratio two to seventy
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: three average allowed eight sixteen ops. So maybe they can
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: hit Klasno a little bit. And Kaiwai Tang is unfamiliar
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: to the Dodgers, who might have a little bit of
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: an extra edge against him. I think they've never seen
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: it before, right, Did I show that? Yeah? I don't
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: know if I showed it, but yeah, so he has
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: an unfamiliarity edge at least Dodgers a huge favorite, sitting
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: at minus two twenty five eighty two percent of tickets
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of cash coming in on them. I
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: still don't think I trust Tang, though, I mean, I
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: can see some arguments for an over again, even though
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: Glasnow is really good, I wouldn't really want to do
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: it in this one. I think last night was the
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: was the place to do it. Tang again, he could
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: be a little bit better than his RRA looks though
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: with that unfamiliarity there in glassnow, I usually don't want
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: to fade him. So I mean as far as the
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: over yet, it's a little bit questionable. Even though fading
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers' bullpend seems like a good idea, but uh,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: probably don't want to do it. I mean, I might
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: still have a slight I don't know if I would
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: lean to the Dodgers though, men, because I talked about
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: the situation, seems like it's an emotional letdown for the Dodgers.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: And really, I mean, at this point, they pretty much
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna win the division, so they're kind of
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: like locked in, close to being locked into what they're
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: seeing as I think. So we'll see what happens. Let's
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: get to the best bets. Yeah to Totis Clark the realist. Clark,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: what's up, Nate, thanks for hanging out again. Let's go
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: to the best bets here. Nate's just in time for
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: the best bets. That was the breakdown. I always forget
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: to show the graphic. We'll do the best bets. We'll
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: get out of here. Not a long video for me
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: here because it's all baseball today. But I gotta talk
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: about three baseball best bets, and they seem a little
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: bit iffy, and right now I gotta hold on because
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: I gotta make sure I didn't put the banners into
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: the system yet, so I gotta do that. Let me
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: look at what they are. First. The first one up
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: is going to be I don't think any of these
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: are afternoon games. All of our players are in the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: evening slate of baseball. Here. Two of them are going
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: to be first five unders, and the first one up
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: is going to be the A's and Pittsburgh first five innings.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: Let me see what the line is on this. I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: think it's an under four four and a half. What
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: is it? It's an under four yeah, at plus one hundred,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: so you can find it even money if you want
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: to pay the extra for the under four and a half,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: you could, but I don't want to pay more than
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: like minus one twenty on something like that, so and
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: I think you do have to pay more for that.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: But I like the under in the first five in
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: this one. You know, I don't really love these bullpens,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: so we'll take the bullpens out of the equation. Especially
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: the A's not a trustworthy bullpen. They've seen a decent
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: amount of usage recently, so I don't want them in here. Pittsburgh,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's is the somewhat better of the two bullpens.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: They're rested to some extent, but used a few of
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: their guys yesterday, four guys, so I still don't really
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: want any part of the bullpens here. These teams are
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: just playing out the stretch, but I'm focusing on what
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: I think are two pretty young pitchers that are unfamiliar
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: to the opposing hitters. Pittsburgh's offense stinks, so we get
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: that to our advantage as well. I know the A's
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: offense is good, but I think they might be held
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: down enough in this game that we can go under.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is on a bad slide, five straight losses. Their
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: offense has been bad. I mean it is bad. It's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: the worst offensive baseball, so we have that going for
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: us here. Sure, they might want to show up and
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: turn it around, but the A's offense actually hasn't been
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: as good recently either. They played some lowish scoring games recently, right.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: I mean they scored two against the Red Sox, four
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: and then five and then four in the first game
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: last night against Pittsburgh. The last night's game in this
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: series actually went under. We're going first five under here, though, Man,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: even though I know the A's offense is good. But
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: good pitching can out compete good hitting, though more often
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: than it doesn't. But we got Louis Morales pitching. This
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: is a game where it's gonna go way under the radar,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: as far as the under is concerned. Under the radar
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: because you get two pitchers nobody knows who they are,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: and they're actually not bad. Luis Morales for the A's
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: pretty talented young pitcher here three point eight one point
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: one one whit pretty solid numbers here. He's actually better
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: on the road, I mean well not actually that makes
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: sense because the A's stadium is terrible. It's a pitching.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: He actually hasn't even been bad at home, but one
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: point eight to eight Roadie Ray, he's been pretty solid.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: He did have one rough outing against the Red Sox,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: but other than that he's allowed three or four earned
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: runs in every other one of his outings. A little
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: bit of a bounce back against the Reds last time out,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: and now he's stepping way down in class against this
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh offense who has never seen him before. So I
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: think he should do pretty well here. He's got the
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity as the hitters. I'm gonna have to try to
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: figure him out on the fly. Twelve to four strikeout
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: walk issue this month is not too bad, even though
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: his ERA went up five point eight seven, but again
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: mostly because the Red Sox gave him his only really
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: bad start. He hasn't allowed a lot of hits at all,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: ten fewer than innings pitched twenty eight in thirty eight.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: As far as the actual numbers, he's allowed too many
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: home runs, but again they've basically all come at home.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I mean most of them have come at home. Four
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: of the six have come at home, so a less
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: of a concern. On the road. He's got a thirty
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: four to fourteen string up walk race ship. It's a
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: few too many walks, but I think we can hopefully
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: trust him here against a very weak lineup. He's going
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: up against Bubba Chandler for Pittsburgh. His era looks bad,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: so really again, nobody's gonna want to come in here
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: and play an under on this five point six to
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: six y ra. But at one point one six whip
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: tells a different story. Man, I think his era is misleading.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: It should be lower than it is with a whip that.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: I know he's been bad at home, so you gotta
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: worry about that ten point one to three era at home,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: But it's such a small sample size it like, what
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: do you want? He faced the Dodgers in Milwaukee at home.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: I know the A's are good offense too, but I mean,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna get a better performance out of
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Chandler here. Man. He bounced back in his last outing
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: in a big way after those rough outings six innings,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: pitch one and run allout, seven strikeouts, no walks there.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: I think he was actually coming out of the bullpend
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: for a bit, and I think that might have been
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: actually his first actual start in the majors might have
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: been that one. Let me see, I know he's made
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: two my mistake, but maybe he got a little bit
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: nervous in his first start whatever it was, which probably
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: was that Milwaukee game. He settled down nicely though, so
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: maybe he's got more confidence now that he had that
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: one really good start. He's a talented guy, though, dude
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: and the A's have never seen him before. So both
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers are these young talents that have unfamiliarity here.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: So we will go under in the first five. I
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: know it's something that people are not gonna like. Probably
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: it seems dangerous. People don't know who these pictures are.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: The money, I think, is agreeing with me. We have
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the tickets on the under, but ninety
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash. It looks like right now
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: it's gone down from eight and a half to eight
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: on the full game. Uh, so we'll roll with it.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: The money's also coming in in the A's for what
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: it's worth, sixty four percent of tickets on Pittsburgh. Crazy.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: To see Pittsburgh as a public side makes absolutely no sense.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: I don't see how they could be because the public
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: likes hitting, and that's what the A's give you. The
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: A's have fifty four percent of the cash on them,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: plus the public's gonna see morales with the better era,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: So how could the public possibly be on Pittsburgh. I
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: don't buy it, But fifty four percent of the cash
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: in the A's looks like the money's on the a's
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: but we're going first five under in that one, Thank you, sir. Yeah,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: that's it's chat chept man. I basically just said, draw
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: a toad, who's explaining his bets like etique, you know
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: or something? I think is that was the prop that
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: I used. It was something like that, next up, we're
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: gonna have what's next up? It's another first five under
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: I believe right. Uh, actually no, the next one up
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: is a side and it is I hope I get
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: this one right because it is my Boston Red Sox.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: On the money line, we get a pretty cheap price
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: on it minus one oh four. We're gonna go with
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox in this one. They do have more
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: motivation here, even though I know they beat Tampa last
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: night in a very high scoring game eleven to seven,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: but it was eleven to four or eleven to three.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: I think in the ninth inning. Tampa exploded a little
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: bit against the Red Sox bullpen. But Tampa was more
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, man, so the Red Sox bullpen
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: is in a bit better shape here. Tampa. A lot
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: of bullpen you sug yesterday. The Red Sox not as much,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: even though they give them a lot of runs late
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: in the game. So the Red Sox have some of
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: their better pitchers available here to try to get them
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: this game. So I think the Red Sox already have
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. I mean, both bullpens are pretty good,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: but the Red Sox do have the better one. They
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. I know that this is a
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: bad park to play in, but the Red Sox can
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: deal with this ballpark more than other teams because it's
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: it's built to mimic Yankee Stadium. It's the Yankee Spring
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: training stadium. So teams that play in Yankee State a
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: lot in this division are gonna fare better in the stadium,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: I think than teams that are less familiar with it.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: And then we have the starting pitching matchup where the
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity is on the side of the Red Sox. Here
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: Kyle Harrison, which was part of the Devs trade maybe
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: the better part of the devastrating. I know they did
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: get TIBs or whatever, and they wound up trading him
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: away for fucking Dustin May, who is just ass and
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: is now on the DL or really the shitty list
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: because he just sucks. But maybe Harrison will wind up
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: being good for the Red Sox. He's young, he does
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: have some talent. His numbers this season and the Majors
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: are not bad four point zero five ERA, one point
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: two to four WHIP. He's good on the road two
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: point twenty five road R. I don't know how his
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: homie I raised that bad, especially because some of it
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: was with San Francisco and a pitcher of friendly park.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: I don't get it, but the Red Sox got him.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: He was in the minors for a while for a
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: few months. He's made one appearance in the majors so far,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: and it was at Speaking of bad stadiums, it was
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: at the A's Stadium, very hitter friendly park against really
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: good offense for the A's and he shut them out
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: for three innings, had two strikeouts, no walks, allot three hits.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty good sign. Man. Harrison pitched pretty well
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: in that one. He does definitely a potential man, so
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: I like seeing that. That's a good sign. And of
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: course the Rays have basically never seen him before. Only
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: four tes has ever faced him before. He's zero for
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: four with one walk against him, so I think Harrison
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: has a pretty big unfamiliarity edge. Year. The fact that
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: he has that first game out of the way and
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: it was in a pretty difficult environment. That's gonna set
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: him up to pitch decently here, I think, because this
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: is another hitter friendly ballpark and it's a step down offensively.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: The A's offense is better than Tampa's is, so I
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: think Harrison should do okay here against another offense that
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: isn't familiar with him, that has to figure him out
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: on the fly. So I actually kind of like how
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: that sets up. We don't know how long he's gonna
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: go in the game though, so the Red Sox might
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: bring in the bullpen a little bit early in this game,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: but they do have the more rest at bullpend here,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: so well, I mean taking that into kat will still
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: roll the Red Sox here though they're going up against
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: Adrian Howser. I know he's had a pretty good season. Uh.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: The Rays got him around the trade deadline because they
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: thought they were still fighting for a playoff spot at
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: that point. And I know the Rays are a better
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: team than they look. I keep preaching that they're better
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: than their record looks. Yes, this is the type of
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: game they will show up for because it's against the
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: Red Sox they could spoil their divisional rivals season. But
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: I just think the Red Sox, the matchup and the
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: motivation should put them over the top here. I hope.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna wind up being wrong about this
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: and being really angry that I know. I know already
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: it's gonna happen. But Houser good numbers on the season.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: He was facing some weak offenses with the White Sox, though,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: three point one win, one point two seven whip between
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: the White Sox and Tampa. He's better at home two
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: point five to four ray at home. But how much
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: of that is with Tampa? Not a lot. He's actually
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: he's only pitched in this stadium twice with Tampa, he said,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: whatever this is, He's had eight stars with Tampa, and
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: six of them have been on the road. Only two
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: of them have been in the stadium, and he gave
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: up four and runs in each of them to Saint
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: Louis and Seattle. So he hasn't been terrific as a
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: home pitcher with Tampa here and Man so maybe this
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: stadium is not really the greatest stadium for him. He's
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: been decent this month in nineteen to two strike aut
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is really good. So he has good command
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: numbers four point four two RRA. Maybe not as good
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: although he did get a bit unlucky. He hasn't a
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: lot of hits, so I'm not saying he's in bad
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: form here. He's not, but in this stadium he might
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: pitch a little bit worse. In the Red Sox. I
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: know it's a small sample of eighteen at bats, but
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: they've hit him. They have a five hundred batting average
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: against him in one thousand and three h four ops,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: two to one strike out walk raceio and there's a
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: home run in there from Trevor Story. So the Red
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: Sox have hit Houser in the past. I know, again,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: small sample size, but I think it's enough edges here
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: to give the edge to the Red Sox, and that
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: is where the money's coming in. It was like the
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: public is on Tampa, sixty seven tickets on Tampa. I
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: don't think that makes any sense, but uh, they probably
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: just don't trust Harrison at all and they see that
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: Houser's numbers are gonna be I really don't know. Hopefully
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: we could trust Harrison. Hopefully he's better than Hicks. The
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: other part of that trade. Who I think Hicks isn't
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: that bad. He's got like a really good ground ball
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: rate and barrel rate if you look at his advanced analytics,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: but just hasn't panned out yet. But eighty nine percent
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Red Sox and this one,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in that way Tampa up from minus
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: one o five to minus one oh seven. It's basically
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: a pick the winner type of price. So we will
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: go with the Red Sox in that one exactly uh
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: physically retadded list. Yeah, let's not get my channel nuked here.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you're allowed to drop one of those in there somewhere,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: and then we'll finish this off with. The last one
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: is another first five inning under and it is what
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: is it? I gotta refresh my memory here, I already
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: forget what it is. Oh no, it's the one in
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: my graphic. You guys already know what it is. And
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: this one we get a little bit of a higher
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: total in this one, and we're going on during it.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: It's Toronto and Kansas City. Let's get this one up quickly,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: first five under four and a half at minus one fifteen.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: So the price isn't too bad on that one. Obviously,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: I like the starting pitching matchup, and that's what we're
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: going with here. I do think Kansas City has a
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: pitching edge in this game, though to some extent, they
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge in this game. Toronto's bullpen is
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two, and Toronto used, I mean
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: the use some of the relievers yesterday somewhat heavily in
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: the game yesterday, you know, just an embarrassing game. Though
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: Kansas City will use one relief pitcher, so Kansas City
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. Any of them were rested bullpen.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: But if you didn't see what happened yesterday, Toronto, they're
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: fighting to win the division year. Kansas City is basically
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: out of it at this point. But Toronto lost the
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: game twenty to one Max Schurzer, a game up seven
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: runs without getting out of the first inning. It's just ridiculous,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: not what you would expect against an offense that's not
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: good like Kansas City. So that's just crazy. I don't
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: know how that even happened, but that's gonna help us
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: with it. Under I think the fact that we see
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: Kansas City score twenty runs yesterday, which should put Toronto
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: in an angry mood, by the way. So there are
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: some angles that maybe you should look towards Toronto here,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: but if you do want, I mean, I don't even
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: really see that much of an angle for it, because
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: the matchup just worries me about Toronto here. Kansas City
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: has the bullpen advantage of this game. Toronto does have
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: the offensive edge, there's no doubt about that. They have
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: the way better offense for sure. But we're focusing on
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: the total and we're focusing on just the starting pitching
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: here because we don't want anything to do with Toronto's
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: bullpen starting pitching here. This is this, you know me,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: this is the type of thing I always play on
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: these particular strike I have certain starting pitchers where it's
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: like I'm always on their games, and that's what I'm
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: doing here. We got Shane Bieber for Toronto the Beebes.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: He came back from missing like an entire season getting
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: Tommy John surgery, a little bit of the old TJ.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: But he's been good. Three point seven to Era one whip.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: He's been good man since coming back. I know he's
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road here, four point
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: five er on the road, but this is a picture
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: friendly park here man, so I think he should do
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: better here against a bad Kansas City offense. He's allowed
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: more than two hour in runs twice so far, more
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: than three earned runs only once. I know he's only
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: made five starts so far, but Toronto's won four of them.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: He has a really excellent thirty to four strike up
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: walk ratio and it's not allowed many hits, so he
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: is completely on point as far as I'm concerned. His
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: last out, he was really good again ball against Baltimore.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: It's not a good offense, but neither is Kansas City.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: Six innings in that one one arn run, allowed five
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: strike outs, one walk, So I think we can absolutely
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: jump in on him at least here, jump on him.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: That's that's pretty sexy. Against the Royals, pretty good numbers
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: in seventy six at bats, he has a pretty ludicrous
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: twenty four to two strike out walk ratio against them,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: really dominant as far as those numbers are concerned. He's
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: telling them to two twenty four average. He's allowed three
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: home runs to them though, so the ops is a
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: little bit high at six sixty two, but all three
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: home runs are from who else? Perez, So I think
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: hit another home run yesterday, So I mean, basically everybody
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: else in this lineup doesn't do a ton of damage
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: against him, So I think we can roll with Bieber.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: But you know me, Noah Cameron's pitching for the Royals,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: and I've pointed this out and you do have to
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: worry about maybe he's wearing down a little bit because
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: it's his rookie season, But looking at his recent starts,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: it looks like that's not that much of a concern
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: at this point. I know he's going up against a
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: good offense here, but I think he can get us there. Man.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: He's got a two point nine to eighty RA one
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: point zero nine whip really good this season. He's a
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home three point one earrail though
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: that's still good. This month is a three point three
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: two ERA and twenty to six strike out walk ratio. So,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: like I said, he doesn't seem to be wearing down. Man.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: His last two starts were on the road against Cleveland
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: and another a bad offense, and then Philadelphia, who's not
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: a bad offense, and that was the one that gave
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: out as that was a winner for me on the show.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: He went seven innings in each of those games, touring
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: runs allowed in each of them and had fifteen to
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: one strike up walk ratios. That doesn't look like he's
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: a guy who is actually wearing down right now. So
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: I think we can roll with this with Cameron as well.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: He has faced Toronto, so Toronto at least is familiar
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: with it now. So the first time he theys Toronto,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: he had an unfamiliarity edge against him. I know that
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: was this game. I think he did give up four
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: earned runs in that game at six and a third,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: I only had one strikeouts. That's that is a little
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: bit concerning. But if you look at this overall, I
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: mean Toronto did they pick up other players at the
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: deadline or something. I don't know what's going on here,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: because Toronto has twenty four at bats against them. I
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: think they did kinder filefos one of them. So Toronto
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: has twenty four at bats against them. They have three
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: hits off him, no extra base hits, four strikeouts, one walk,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: one twenty five hours allot on two eighty five ohps.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: So this current line up the Toronto's throwing out there,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: they have not been good against Camera and I'm looking
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: at the money in this one. The money looks like
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: it's kind of fading Toronto. They're down for minus one
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: fifty one thirty eighty five percent of tickets, eighty seven
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash, even though they do have the
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: division to play for. They're gonna be angry after losing
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: twenty to one. I mean, that's ridiculous. But they use
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of their bullpens, so sometimes that can domino
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: into the next game. But we're only focused on the under,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: and it looks like the money's agreeing with that. Sixty
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, seventy two percent of
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: cash on the under. All though granted that is in
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: the full game total is just sitting an eight and
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: a half, so it's not even going anywhere. Of course,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: after a twenty run out burst by Kansas City yesterday,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: and knowing that Toronto has a good offense, the public
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna still want to play the over here,
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: or they're at least not gonna want an under. But
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: we'll do it first. Five under. That's the last play.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Justin Bieber, I don't know his music that well, man,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe you couldn't believe the twenty to one, Yeah,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: I mean I saw that score, I was like, what
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: anyway that's gonna do it for now? Man, go check
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: out my football video from last night. We got a
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: football plays Miami Ohio plus two and a half, Memphis
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: plus seven or I think you can get seven and
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: a half. Probably now Kanessas State plus four and a half.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: I know we're losing a little bit of value on
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: the Miami Ohio and Kanessas State, but I still like
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: those sides. You got three home underdogs there, and then
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: we have a road underdog that's really gonna be going
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: way against the public. This is extremely contrarian, but that's
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: what you gotta do. Man. Florida plus seven and a half.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: And then we got first five innings under four in
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: A's Pirates, we got the Red Sox money line, and
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: we got first five under J's Royals. That's gonna do it.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: I gotta get the baseball plays out on Instagram. Gotta
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: get my picks settle here before noon hits, so I
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: gotta get that done. I feel like I'm always in
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: a rush. At the end of this video here, I
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: wasn't too long today. I'll learned it toad on both
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: on it everywhere Learn to Toad do it? Baby? Uh like,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here, tell people about it. Man,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: let's get more eyes on this channel. Better off dead
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: Ron audio as well. Give me a review there. Listen
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: all that helps me out over there on Spotify and
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: Apple coverning you because my yuke channel on YouTube, so
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: you can check that out as well. I want to
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: get more going on that on the yuke front and
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: then Patreon dot com slash learn to Toad. We're some
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: yuke bonus content exists there and that's gonna do it.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Charles H. Bald. That will be coming up.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: It'll be episode four of Bald. Clint said that he
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: would do it. He suggested. I I think during our
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: last show, he's like, let me come back on and
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about baseball because he's a baseball fan. He
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: likes the Padres, so yeah, we can talk about that.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: Nate rooting for Nebraska today. I have a slightly in
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: Nebraska on that one. By the way, I checked the
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: market read on all four of my college football like
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: plays that I gave out and it still looked good
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: this morning on all four. So hopefully that's still the case.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we're not gonna be We're not gonna be on
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: all fours hopefully, So I like it. I think I
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: went through it and was pretty selective, so hopefully we
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: get it there. Let's go. Hopefully everybody gets some wins
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: today and have a good day. Everybody, Peace for now,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: and I'll be back tonight because we got to talk
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: the NFL slate for tomorrow. I have probably at least
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: two plays. Sometimes I only go with two in the NFL.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be three. Usually it's not gonna be more
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: than three. But we'll say something in that ballpark. But
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: I don't love the NFL card, to be honest, the board,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, But I will be back
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: tonight somewhere around midnight to talk about it. Peace for now.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: M