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Shutdown & Payrolls: The Extreme Risk Week · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome back to Spy Trader , the show that helps you navigate the market madness one choppy week at a time .
• 0:07
  I'm your host , Barry Bullish , and boy , do we have a highstakes week ahead of us .
• 0:12
  It's 6 am on Sunday , September 28th , 2025 ( Pacific ) , and investors are waking up to a cocktail of political deadlines and crucial economic releases .
• 0:25
  Our overall market outlook calls for high volatility with a slightly negative to flat bias early in the week , escalating into an extremely highrisk event on Friday .
• 0:35
  If you were looking for quiet , you came to the wrong place .
• 0:38
  We've got two major forces battling for control this week .
• 0:42
  First , the political risk : We are facing a likely US government shutdown as federal funding is set to expire on Tuesday , October 1st .
• 0:53
  Second , the monetary policy risk , centered entirely around the behemoth of economic data : the Nonfarm Payrolls report coming out on Friday .
• 1:02
  On the corporate front , we are closely watching earnings from Carnival ( CCL ) on Monday and Nike ( NKE ) on Tuesday , both providing crucial insight into consumer health .
• 1:14
  Plus , Tesla ( TSLA ) is expected to deliver its Q3 delivery figures on Thursday , which is a major signal for the broader growth sector .
• 1:24
  Now let's dive into the analysis .
• 1:27
  Historically , government shutdowns haven't caused longterm damage to the S&P 500 , but they absolutely drive shortterm volatility .
• 1:36
  The key risk this time is that the shutdown could delay the release of critical data , most notably that Nonfarm Payrolls report .
• 1:45
  This would leave the Federal Reserve