Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / David Satterfield: Former US Ambassador in the Middle East on Iran vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed

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David Satterfield: Former US Ambassador in the Middle East on Iran vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Right to the Strait of hor Moo's been opening and
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: closing like a creaky door. It is basically open, closed,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: open clones. Vance is heading back to Pakistan for more talks.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Iran hasn't yet said whether they'll actually show up to those.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: David Satisfield is a former US ambassador who's served extensively
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: in the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf, Lebanon, and Iraq,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: and joins me Live this morning. David, nice to have
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: you on the program. Thank you for being with me.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: We've had shots fired at those vessels from while they
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: were flagged to India over the weekend. What do you
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: think is going to happen with straight from here?
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What you're seeing is pasturing on the Iranian side and
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: what appears to be emerging as a division, or at
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: least multiple viewpoints within the Iranian leadership. It's all hard line,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: let's not kid ourselves about that. But there are elements
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: who are perhaps more pragmatic about negotiations and some who
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: are more rigid. But the strait was never opened. Iran
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: posed a requirement that all vessels passing comply with Iranian requirements,
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: which is not consistent with international obligations, So it's not
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: a question of open and then closed. It's never been
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: reopened again. The real question here, which we'll see over
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: coming hours, is whether the Iranians show up in Islamabad
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: tonight or tomorrow to meet the US delegation, and if
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: they do, whether there is any movement on either side,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: the US or Iranian regarding fundamental positions on the enrichment
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: program and on the turnover of highly enriched stock.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Do you think the finching is over now?
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Well, I think the cease fire has every potential to
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: endure so long as negotiations go on. But let's be
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: realistic here. There are three options as to where this
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: all can go. The negotiations proceed, they're tough, but they
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: proceed against a backdrop of a ceasefire and closure of
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: the strait. The US adjusts its position, the Iranians perhaps
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: adjust Theirs, and you ultimately come to a resolution. That's
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: one option. There's another option, which is the negotiations don't restart.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: That is, the very hardline elements do not come to
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: islam Abad. I think that's less likely than not, but
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: it happens, or the negotiations go nowhere and President Trump
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: in frustration and anger over the Iranian refusal to move forward,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: elects for an escalation. The problem with that is Iran
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: possesses undoubted escalation dominance. What that means is the US
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: obviously can inflict greater pain on Iran militarily, but Iran
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: has the capacity to effectively inflict pain across the Gulf
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: and beyond. That's the dilemma that shapes all of what
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: we are seeing now.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: David Zanderfield, appreciate your update this morning. Forming US ambassador
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: served extensively in the Middle East, including the Persian Golf,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Lebanon and Iraq. Also served under Trump as ambassador for
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Turkey in his previous administration. For more from earlier edition
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: with Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talks it Be
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.