#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress
AI models today have a 50% chance of successfully completing a task that would take an expert human one hour. Seven months ago, that number was roughly 30 minutes — and seven months before that, 15 minutes.
These are substantial, multi-step tasks requiring sustained focus: building web applications, conducting machine learning research, or solving complex programming challenges.
Today’s guest, Beth Barnes, is CEO of METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research) — the leading organisation measuring these capabilities.
Beth’s team has been timing how long it takes skilled humans to complete…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.