Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Graham and Mazzei Wins Brought BIG Predictable Profit!

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Graham and Mazzei Wins Brought BIG Predictable Profit! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:01
  We had the runoff results from last night,
• 0:03
  a couple of races.
• 0:04
  What did we learn?
• 0:05
  What did we win?
• 0:06
  What did we lose?
• 0:07
  Your winners and your losers.
• 0:10
  Uh,
• 0:10
  we love doing that as well.
• 0:11
  Every position that I took on the election last night.
• 0:14
  And,
• 0:14
  uh,
• 0:15
  I will also tell you,
• 0:16
  uh,
• 0:16
  we've got a new episode of The Perfect Trade,
• 0:19
  and we'll talk to you about new developments
• 0:20
  in the world of prediction markets and sports.
• 0:22
  It's all coming up on Predictable
• 0:24
  with Stu.
• 0:39
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:41
  Go to youtube.com/atpredictableshw to watch us on YouTube,
• 0:46
  wherever you get your podcasts,
• 0:47
  and of course,
• 0:47
  PredictableShow.com.
• 0:48
  We have a bunch of great stuff up there.
• 0:50
  Had a great time talking to people in the chat yesterday.
• 0:53
  Uh,
• 0:53
  we have a,
• 0:53
  a chat.
• 0:54
  If you are a free subscriber,
• 0:55
  you can go there,
• 0:56
  post your questions,
• 0:57
  whatever,
• 0:57
  it's a great community,
• 0:58
  uh,
• 0:59
  there.
• 0:59
  I jumped in there a bunch of times yesterday on the free side of the chat,
• 1:02
  and then we have a premium tier chat as well,
• 1:04
  which I think you'll really,
• 1:05
  really enjoy,
• 1:06
  particularly if you're trading these markets.
• 1:07
  Uh,
• 1:07
  we had
• 1:08
  a live stream last night that went,
• 1:10
  I think a total of 3 hours.
• 1:12
  Part of that was subscribers only,
• 1:13
  found some good values in there,
• 1:15
  uh,
• 1:15
  and,
• 1:16
  and I got to see some,
• 1:17
  some good profits yesterday.
• 1:18
  It was,
• 1:18
  I would say.
• 1:21
  They,
• 1:21
  they call this,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:22
  at times,
• 1:23
  it's a little chalky.
• 1:24
  Uh,
• 1:24
  it's a little bit kind of like right in that range of what you kind of would expect.
• 1:29
  It wasn't a,
• 1:30
  it wasn't one of those
• 1:31
  crazy evenings where you saw massive upsets,
• 1:34
  unless you happen to be in the,
• 1:36
  what was that guy's name?
• 1:37
  Uh,
• 1:38
  there was one guy in,
• 1:39
  uh,
• 1:39
  in Georgia that wound up winning that was a big surprise.
• 1:42
  Uh,
• 1:42
  so if you're in that market,
• 1:43
  maybe you have,
• 1:44
  I,
• 1:44
  I'll give you an exception on that,
• 1:45
  uh,
• 1:45
  who,
• 1:46
  who has a great name.
• 1:47
  Well,
• 1:47
  find out that name,
• 1:48
  Adam.
• 1:48
  It's a great name.
• 1:50
  Um,
• 1:50
  it's,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:51
  I'll,
• 1:51
  I'll give it to you here in a second,
• 1:52
  but it's fantastic.
• 1:53
  But
• 1:54
  I will say
• 1:55
  there's some interesting things that happened,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:56
  and there was some back and forth,
• 1:58
  particularly on the Oklahoma race.
• 1:59
  Let me give you a couple of details here before we get into it.
• 2:01
  69 days until the midterm elections now,
• 2:04
  uh,
• 2:04
  just 69 days.
• 2:05
  We're basically a little over 2 months away,
• 2:07
  but only 23 days until early voting begins.
• 2:10
  So,
• 2:10
  we are in the final stretches here
• 2:12
  and starting next week,
• 2:14
  I'm gonna be giving you,
• 2:15
  uh,
• 2:16
  like at least 1 pick a day for November.
• 2:20
  One pick a day for November that I want you to look at and consider.
• 2:24
  Um,
• 2:24
  we're just gonna go through it every single show.
• 2:26
  There's gonna be another one there.
• 2:27
  Um,
• 2:28
  you know,
• 2:28
  some of them will have big profit potential,
• 2:30
  some of them will not,
• 2:31
  some of them will be really sure,
• 2:32
  some of them will be long shots.
• 2:33
  We'll just go through all of it,
• 2:34
  at least give you one a day.
• 2:36
  The other way,
• 2:36
  of course,
• 2:37
  you can access these is part of the premium,
• 2:39
  uh,
• 2:39
  tier at predictableShow.com where every single position
• 2:43
  is up there as I take them.
• 2:45
  Uh,
• 2:45
  so if you are interested in that,
• 2:47
  uh,
• 2:47
  there's over 200 positions listed right now.
• 2:49
  We update it,
• 2:50
  I think,
• 2:50
  every Friday,
• 2:51
  uh,
• 2:52
  and I also put other positions,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:54
  that are more urgent,
• 2:55
  like if there's an election the next day,
• 2:56
  we're not gonna wait till Friday to update it.
• 2:58
  I'll put those into the premium chat.
• 3:00
  So it's something I think you'll like.
• 3:01
  We do have a few primaries.
• 3:02
  What is it?
• 3:03
  Oh,
• 3:03
  Everton Blair Junior.
• 3:05
  That's the guy's name in Georgia.
• 3:06
  What a great freaking name.
• 3:08
  If I would have known,
• 3:09
  the guy running in Georgia was named Everton Blair Junior,
• 3:12
  just would have gone all in on it.
• 3:14
  You can't lose an election when your name is Everton Blair Junior.
• 3:17
  That's just a freaking great name.
• 3:20
  Uh,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:21
  you know,
• 3:21
  Everton Blair Junior,
• 3:23
  how do you lose?
• 3:24
  How do you lose?
• 3:25
  You just sound like you're just,
• 3:27
  I don't know,
• 3:27
  like a Southern gentleman.
• 3:29
  Everton Blair Junior.
• 3:30
  I want that.
• 3:31
  I don't know,
• 3:31
  he's probably has the worst policies in the world.
• 3:33
  Still want him to be president just because of his name.
• 3:35
  President Everton Blair Junior.
• 3:39
  Actually,
• 3:39
  I don't want to be president.
• 3:40
  I'm pretty sure of it.
• 3:40
  Uh,
• 3:41
  anyway,
• 3:41
  uh,
• 3:41
  September 1st is Massachusetts.
• 3:43
  I will say,
• 3:43
  I'm not gonna have,
• 3:44
  I'm not gonna spend a ton of time on this.
• 3:46
  Uh,
• 3:46
  there's not much profit left in this race.
• 3:48
  I will say,
• 3:49
  if you are interested in,
• 3:50
  um,
• 3:51
  a position coming up here in a week,
• 3:53
  I would look if you can grab any profit on Ed Markey in that race against Seth Moulton.
• 3:58
  I,
• 3:58
  I like Marky a lot.
• 3:59
  Uh,
• 4:00
  just quickly on this,
• 4:01
  it wasn't part of this monologue,
• 4:02
  but I'll just quickly go on it.
• 4:03
  Um,
• 4:04
  Marky is,
• 4:05
  he's the left-wing guy.
• 4:07
  Uh,
• 4:07
  you know,
• 4:07
  cause people are looking at it,
• 4:08
  oh,
• 4:08
  it's an older guy,
• 4:09
  Marky,
• 4:10
  against a younger guy,
• 4:10
  Moulton.
• 4:11
  Yeah,
• 4:11
  but,
• 4:12
  uh,
• 4:12
  it's Massachusetts.
• 4:14
  Markey's the left-wing guy,
• 4:15
  and Moulton is the quote unquote,
• 4:17
  more conservative
• 4:18
  candidate,
• 4:19
  the more moderate candidate.
• 4:21
  You're telling me in this environment,
• 4:23
  With all the anger,
• 4:25
  with all the socialists rising all over the country,
• 4:28
  they're gonna pick
• 4:29
  the,
• 4:30
  the guy who's like,
• 4:31
  oh,
• 4:31
  I'm military-friendly,
• 4:32
  uh,
• 4:33
  Seth Moulton.
• 4:35
  Over a guy endorsed by AOC.
• 4:38
  Like I,
• 4:38
  it doesn't make any sense at all.
• 4:39
  Marky's leading in all the polls.
• 4:41
  Uh,
• 4:42
  you know,
• 4:42
  I was grabbing this in the,
• 4:43
  uh,
• 4:43
  high 80s and low 90s.
• 4:45
  Um,
• 4:45
  and frankly,
• 4:46
  wish I was on it a couple of weeks early because it was in the 70s.
• 4:49
  Now it is getting into the 90s.
• 4:51
  If you can get a few points there,
• 4:52
  uh,
• 4:52
  I get it because it's probably gonna be 98,
• 4:54
  99 by next week.
• 4:55
  Uh,
• 4:56
  so,
• 4:56
  uh,
• 4:56
  that's where I I am on that race.
• 4:58
  I just don't,
• 4:58
  I don't see how in this environment Massachusetts Democrats are gonna be like,
• 5:01
  all right,
• 5:01
  this is the time to go to show our moderation.
• 5:05
  I don't think that's happening right now.
• 5:06
  OK.
• 5:07
  Anyway,
• 5:07
  um,
• 5:08
  September 8th is
• 5:09
  New Hampshire and Rhode Island and then finally finishes it up,
• 5:12
  uh,
• 5:12
  September 15th
• 5:13
  in Delaware.
• 5:14
  OK,
• 5:14
  last night,
• 5:15
  Darlene Graham.
• 5:17
  She won the South Carolina runoff.
• 5:20
  If you,
• 5:20
  if you happen to miss this,
• 5:21
  go down.
• 5:22
  This was a,
• 5:22
  actually we had a.
• 5:23
  You know,
• 5:23
  I said it was kind of a boring night and in some ways,
• 5:26
  like there weren't like massive upsets.
• 5:28
  We had some really close elections that,
• 5:30
  that
• 5:31
  kept our attention throughout the evening.
• 5:33
  Uh,
• 5:33
  this is the final total,
• 5:34
  52.5 to 47.5,
• 5:37
  the final,
• 5:38
  uh,
• 5:38
  Ralph Norman loses.
• 5:39
  As you know,
• 5:40
  I had a Darlene Graham position for yes on Graham
• 5:43
  and a no position on Norman that I held for,
• 5:46
  you know,
• 5:46
  a month or two.
• 5:47
  Um,
• 5:47
  I actually had Norman no,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:50
  you know,
• 5:50
  before as well in the governor's race,
• 5:52
  but
• 5:52
  Norman,
• 5:53
  uh,
• 5:53
  no,
• 5:54
  and Darlene Graham,
• 5:55
  yes.
• 5:55
  After that debate thing,
• 5:56
  I,
• 5:57
  I threw it out the window and sold everything for
• 5:59
  a profit because I was too nervous about Graham.
• 6:01
  And you could see,
• 6:02
  I mean,
• 6:02
  really,
• 6:02
  I think she would have probably won 65% of the vote without that,
• 6:05
  but she instead won 52.5%. That's enough though.
• 6:08
  And I don't know if you know that.
• 6:09
  You don't have to,
• 6:10
  you don't have to win by more than one vote.
• 6:12
  You just have to win.
• 6:13
  Um,
• 6:13
  this is how the race looked,
• 6:14
  really no
• 6:16
  huge questions.
• 6:17
  It did narrow actually kind of during the day,
• 6:19
  as you see from about 1:30 p.m. on.
• 6:22
  It narrowed and narrowed and narrowed,
• 6:23
  got to about a 60/40 race.
• 6:26
  There were real opportunities before the vote came
• 6:28
  out if you wanted to get Darlene Graham.
• 6:29
  I just wasn't sure she was going to win.
• 6:31
  Obviously a very close race.
• 6:33
  And I did not wind up taking a big,
• 6:35
  uh,
• 6:35
  really a position.
• 6:36
  I did do,
• 6:37
  um,
• 6:38
  some other stuff we'll talk about here in the margin markets in just a second.
• 6:40
  So that race was kind of like,
• 6:42
  it was close.
• 6:43
  It was a little bit up in the air as to who might win,
• 6:45
  but
• 6:46
  we were looking at this on the live stream.
• 6:48
  We had 4,
• 6:49
  no,
• 6:50
  6 counties I had identified as
• 6:52
  counties to kind of just watch and,
• 6:54
  and see where Graham would do,
• 6:55
  what,
• 6:56
  what she would do.
• 6:57
  And if she could get above 60,
• 6:58
  65% in these counties,
• 7:00
  I was very confident that she was going to win.
• 7:02
  She hit every single one of those except one,
• 7:04
  I think she was over that line.
• 7:06
  And once that started happening,
• 7:08
  we were talking about it in real time.
• 7:10
  Um,
• 7:10
  he's saying that like it's,
• 7:11
  look,
• 7:11
  if,
• 7:12
  if you're confident in Graham,
• 7:13
  now is the time to go in.
• 7:15
  Uh,
• 7:15
  some people did that and it's got some nice victories out of that as well.
• 7:17
  The more interesting race probably as far as just drama goes,
• 7:21
  was the race in Oklahoma.
• 7:22
  Businessman Mike Maizey
• 7:24
  wins the,
• 7:26
  uh,
• 7:26
  GOP nomination for Oklahoma governor
• 7:28
  with Trump's endorsement.
• 7:29
  It was a close race.
• 7:30
  By the way,
• 7:30
  Trump won both of his endorsements last night in very close races.
• 7:33
  So,
• 7:34
  I mean,
• 7:34
  the,
• 7:34
  he probably got both of those candidates over the finish line.
• 7:38
  Now,
• 7:39
  Look,
• 7:39
  Maisie is gonna win in Oklahoma.
• 7:41
  I don't think there's any question about that.
• 7:43
  The South Carolina race is actually now down in the 80s.
• 7:47
  Because everyone's kind of nervous about Darlene Graham.
• 7:49
  She looks so bad in that debate,
• 7:51
  she's gonna have to have a debate against the Democrat.
• 7:53
  Is it possible she's so bad
• 7:56
  in that particular debate that she loses South Carolina?
• 7:59
  My,
• 7:59
  my instinct is no,
• 8:00
  and this might be a chance
• 8:01
  if you,
• 8:03
  if you have any faith in Darlene Graham.
• 8:05
  To just like study up over the next month or two
• 8:09
  before she has to deal,
• 8:09
  or I don't know when the debate actually is scheduled.
• 8:11
  I don't think,
• 8:12
  I don't know if it's even on the schedule yet,
• 8:14
  but
• 8:14
  if she just kind of like
• 8:17
  reads
• 8:18
  in her free time right now.
• 8:20
  She's gonna win South Carolina.
• 8:21
  She just can't completely screw it up.
• 8:23
  And
• 8:24
  normally you don't get values like 80-something% right now in,
• 8:27
  in a place like South Carolina.
• 8:29
  So
• 8:29
  it could be some value there
• 8:30
  if you have faith in,
• 8:31
  in Graham.
• 8:32
  I am,
• 8:33
  I have some,
• 8:34
  uh,
• 8:35
  South Carolina,
• 8:36
  uh,
• 8:36
  I,
• 8:36
  you know,
• 8:36
  I was in a way kind of hoping Norman would win because then I'd be very,
• 8:39
  very confident that he would win that race.
• 8:41
  Uh,
• 8:41
  but Graham,
• 8:42
  I'm a little less confident.
• 8:43
  Still,
• 8:44
  8,
• 8:44
  in the mid-80s for that race is,
• 8:46
  is pretty good value.
• 8:47
  Again,
• 8:48
  you're,
• 8:48
  you're only looking at absolute catastrophe as the
• 8:50
  the way you lose that.
• 8:53
  You watched that debate too,
• 8:54
  so that's at least possible.
• 8:55
  This is how the race,
• 8:56
  by the way,
• 8:56
  very,
• 8:57
  very close race in Oklahoma.
• 8:58
  Maisie won 50.3
• 9:00
  to 49.7.
• 9:02
  I am kind of a guy who,
• 9:04
  and I do this all the time too,
• 9:05
  and I did it in the other race where I like taking
• 9:07
  no positions on
• 9:09
  extremely close,
• 9:10
  uh,
• 9:10
  races cause usually they're just not.
• 9:12
  Usually one candidate or the other
• 9:14
  winds up pulling away.
• 9:15
  In this particular race,
• 9:16
  I would have lost.
• 9:17
  Luckily,
• 9:17
  I did not have that position here.
• 9:19
  Um,
• 9:19
  this is what the market looked like and you kind of see,
• 9:21
  uh,
• 9:22
  you know,
• 9:23
  you see the ups and downs.
• 9:24
  This is Mike Maizey.
• 9:24
  Can we kind of drag this over?
• 9:26
  If you go to the far left of the screen.
• 9:28
  You have
• 9:29
  a real flat,
• 9:30
  um,
• 9:31
  you know,
• 9:31
  leading up to when the vote comes out,
• 9:33
  77% or so for Maisie.
• 9:35
  I sold,
• 9:35
  I think all my Maisy
• 9:38
  before the votes really started coming out.
• 9:39
  I sold right around 80%
• 9:41
  for all of this.
• 9:42
  You see,
• 9:42
  he's at 81.5% before the vote comes out and you kind of
• 9:44
  watch it go slow across this next barrier you're up to 80%,
• 9:47
  you are then down to 20%,
• 9:50
  and then you're back up to 46%,
• 9:52
  you're up to 60,
• 9:53
  and then.
• 9:54
  And down again,
• 9:55
  uh,
• 9:55
  back up again,
• 9:56
  just,
• 9:57
  you know,
• 9:57
  keep going through this.
• 9:58
  I mean,
• 9:58
  he just ups and downs and ups and downs and ups and downs all the way through the day
• 10:01
  and then eventually rises back up and Maisy winds up winning.
• 10:04
  There was one point I thought Drummond looked better,
• 10:06
  frankly,
• 10:07
  in the vote count,
• 10:08
  uh,
• 10:08
  but Maisy wound up,
• 10:09
  uh,
• 10:10
  pulling out what he needed to pull out,
• 10:11
  even though
• 10:12
  we looked at these three counties,
• 10:14
  uh,
• 10:14
  it was Oklahoma,
• 10:15
  Cleveland,
• 10:16
  and Tulsa counties
• 10:18
  as kind of the keys to this election.
• 10:20
  And actually like it wound up really seemingly being Cleveland County,
• 10:24
  the smallest of the three that really was the difference in this race.
• 10:28
  The other two kind of basically stayed almost even.
• 10:31
  I think
• 10:32
  Drummond actually won them uh by a few votes,
• 10:34
  uh,
• 10:34
  but
• 10:35
  not enough,
• 10:36
  uh,
• 10:36
  in that situation.
• 10:37
  And I,
• 10:37
  and I like I talked to a lot of people who trade these markets,
• 10:40
  and you say like that's just not completely unpredictable,
• 10:42
  right?
• 10:42
  It's the opposite of what we try to do here.
• 10:44
  It's a very difficult market to try to master.
• 10:46
  And uh people say,
• 10:48
  well,
• 10:48
  how can I do this?
• 10:49
  I,
• 10:49
  I can't,
• 10:50
  I can't do this.
• 10:50
  And look,
• 10:52
  this is very,
• 10:52
  very simple.
• 10:54
  All you have to do
• 10:55
  is make
• 10:56
  every single move
• 10:58
  at the exact right time.
• 10:59
  All you have to do
• 11:00
  is formulate
• 11:02
  the perfect trade.
• 11:11
  Yes,
• 11:11
  this is the perfect trade.
• 11:12
  This is where we look at where
• 11:15
  you should have been last night,
• 11:17
  at every moment during the evening.
• 11:20
  What if you just,
• 11:21
  what if you just were Biff Tannen and you had the sports almanac,
• 11:24
  and you're sitting there and you're like,
• 11:25
  wait a minute,
• 11:26
  that score is exactly what just happened on the radio.
• 11:29
  I
• 11:30
  want to be that person,
• 11:32
  you wanna be that person,
• 11:33
  it's so easy.
• 11:35
  All you have to do is nail it.
• 11:37
  Let me show you exactly what you could have done
• 11:39
  last night.
• 11:40
  It's super duper easy.
• 11:42
  Let's say you start out with $500
• 11:45
  OK?
• 11:46
  $500 you just buy Drummond at 16%
• 11:49
  as the vote's coming out.
• 11:50
  You sell Drummond at 53%,
• 11:52
  and then your bankrolls up to $1,656.
• 11:55
  Then you take that $1,656
• 11:58
  and you uh buy Maisie at 47% and then sell the Maisie at 69%,
• 12:03
  bringing your bankroll to $2,432.
• 12:06
  After that,
• 12:07
  you bring that $2400.
• 12:08
  $32
• 12:09
  and you buy Drummond at 31%,
• 12:11
  then just sell Drummond at 66%,
• 12:13
  increasing your bankroll to $5,177.
• 12:16
  Then you take that $5,177
• 12:19
  very,
• 12:19
  very simply,
• 12:20
  and you put that into Maisie at 34%,
• 12:23
  and then sell the Maisie at 61%,
• 12:26
  increasing your bankroll to $9,288.
• 12:29
  Just simply take that $9,288
• 12:32
  and move that over to Drummond at 300.
• 12:33
  9%,
• 12:34
  then sell that Drummond at 50%,
• 12:36
  increasing your bankroll to $11,907.
• 12:41
  Then you take that $11,907
• 12:44
  move that over to Maisie at 50%,
• 12:46
  then you sell that Maisie at 91%,
• 12:49
  increasing your bankroll
• 12:50
  to $21,671.
• 12:53
  But then,
• 12:54
  you take that to $21,671
• 12:56
  invest that in Drummond at 9%.
• 12:59
  Quick little turnaround,
• 13:00
  sell Drummond at 15%,
• 13:02
  increasing that bankroll to $36,119.
• 13:06
  And then you just finally,
• 13:07
  simply,
• 13:08
  easily take that $36,119.
• 13:11
  You buy
• 13:12
  Maisie at 85%,
• 13:13
  ride that out till it resolves at 100%,
• 13:16
  and you turn that $500
• 13:17
  into $42,493.
• 13:21
  So how does that look?
• 13:22
  How does the perfect trade look for the evening last night?
• 13:25
  Your total profit $41,993.
• 13:28
  Your profit percentage in one evening,
• 13:30
  8,399%.
• 13:33
  You only spent two hours on it,
• 13:35
  so your annual percentage rate is
• 13:37
  36,785,825%
• 13:42
  in just two hours,
• 13:43
  and that,
• 13:44
  ladies and gentlemen,
• 13:45
  is how
• 13:46
  you turn $500
• 13:48
  into 40-something $000
• 13:50
  in just
• 13:51
  eight easy steps.
• 13:55
  What's wrong with that?
• 13:56
  Just do that next time.
• 13:58
  It's easy.
• 14:00
  I missed out on a couple of those,
• 14:02
  but
• 14:02
  no big deal.
• 14:03
  OK,
• 14:03
  we're gonna take a break,
• 14:03
  we're gonna come back on the other side.
• 14:05
  We have,
• 14:05
  uh,
• 14:06
  every position that I took in last night's election
• 14:09
  and how it came out.
• 14:10
  We're gonna look at all the positions you took
• 14:12
  on last night's election as well,
• 14:14
  and so much more on today's predictable with Stu.
• 14:16
  Just make sure you wanna get these picks in advance.
• 14:19
  You wanna be able to hopefully hit that perfect.
• 14:21
  I didn't give out all those perfect trade steps in advance.
• 14:24
  I I forgot,
• 14:24
  I forgot to post them.
• 14:26
  Uh,
• 14:26
  but
• 14:26
  I'll do my best to get them out there at predictableShow.com.
• 14:30
  Join us,
• 14:30
  subscribe,
• 14:31
  be part of the team.
• 14:32
  It's a great group.
• 14:33
  We had a great time last night,
• 14:34
  uh,
• 14:34
  through the live chat and,
• 14:35
  uh,
• 14:36
  through the,
• 14:36
  uh,
• 14:36
  live stream.
• 14:37
  So
• 14:37
  make sure to join us,
• 14:38
  PredictableShow.com.
• 14:53
  All right,
• 14:53
  uh,
• 14:53
  so every election night when we do these primaries,
• 14:56
  I go through every single position
• 14:58
  that I had,
• 15:00
  uh,
• 15:00
  during,
• 15:00
  uh,
• 15:01
  you know,
• 15:01
  that,
• 15:01
  that kind of resolved or at least were
• 15:03
  largely involved in last night.
• 15:05
  Like I had a bunch of positions on like South Carolina that had resolved weeks ago.
• 15:10
  I'm not including those.
• 15:11
  I,
• 15:11
  I'm gonna keep this as short as possible because frankly,
• 15:13
  there's only 2 elections.
• 15:14
  I didn't have tons and tons of positions.
• 15:16
  Again,
• 15:16
  I'm leaving out,
• 15:17
  what was his name?
• 15:18
  Uh,
• 15:18
  Blair Emerson.
• 15:20
  Everton Blair Junior,
• 15:21
  I'm leaving him out.
• 15:22
  Although we had some big winners.
• 15:24
  Brent,
• 15:25
  who who's a president of this,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:27
  uh,
• 15:27
  particular company,
• 15:28
  had a wound up hitting a very big long shot on Everton Blair Junior.
• 15:32
  While I'm working,
• 15:34
  he's like,
• 15:34
  hey,
• 15:34
  I'm just gonna cash in on Everton Blair Junior.
• 15:36
  Thanks a lot,
• 15:37
  Brent.
• 15:38
  Anyway,
• 15:39
  uh,
• 15:39
  every position that I had last night,
• 15:40
  there were some,
• 15:41
  not tons.
• 15:42
  Here we go.
• 15:42
  Uh,
• 15:42
  Oklahoma GOP Governor Maisie,
• 15:45
  uh,
• 15:45
  yes.
• 15:46
  Uh,
• 15:46
  that was a large position for me and a win,
• 15:48
  43%.
• 15:50
  We wound up taking in on that.
• 15:51
  I want to make sure you understand what I did with Maisie last night.
• 15:54
  Because what I basically did is I had Maisie from a long time ago.
• 15:57
  I rode that all the way to election and as the day went on,
• 16:00
  I took it down from a large position to,
• 16:02
  I wasn't sure really what was gonna happen.
• 16:04
  I thought Maisie was gonna win,
• 16:06
  but I wasn't certain about it.
• 16:08
  I just locked in the profit,
• 16:09
  40-something%.
• 16:10
  If I would have held on more,
• 16:12
  I could have made that maybe 60% or 70% even.
• 16:14
  I don't even know exactly what it would have been if I had held it all the way to 100%.
• 16:18
  But I would have had to deal with all those ups and
• 16:20
  downs of the night and all the stress of doing that.
• 16:22
  And frankly,
• 16:23
  I find myself being a tad more conservative
• 16:26
  when I'm selling,
• 16:27
  when I know I'm live streaming,
• 16:29
  because it's just freaking hard for me to,
• 16:31
  to,
• 16:31
  I I my,
• 16:32
  my,
• 16:32
  I'm not smart enough,
• 16:34
  being frank about it.
• 16:35
  I'm not smart enough
• 16:36
  to both talk about these things and trade them at the most efficient,
• 16:39
  uh,
• 16:40
  way possible.
• 16:41
  So,
• 16:41
  I'm leaning a little bit of profit sometimes on the table with these.
• 16:43
  I'm comfortable with that.
• 16:44
  I'm fine with it.
• 16:45
  Your mileage may vary,
• 16:46
  you can stick all the way to 100 and or risk the zero.
• 16:49
  I just took the profit,
• 16:50
  43%,
• 16:51
  yes.
• 16:51
  I also did a,
• 16:52
  uh,
• 16:53
  had a small position on Drummond,
• 16:55
  yes,
• 16:56
  um,
• 16:56
  which I bought at like 1 cent
• 16:59
  and sold at like $1.8.
• 17:03
  It wasn't particularly dramatic.
• 17:05
  It was a 75% profit,
• 17:06
  wasn't a ton of money,
• 17:08
  uh,
• 17:08
  but that was,
• 17:08
  I wound up being a yes,
• 17:09
  even though Drummond didn't win.
• 17:10
  That was a winning position.
• 17:12
  Uh,
• 17:12
  South Carolina GOP Senate,
• 17:14
  uh,
• 17:14
  Graham,
• 17:15
  uh,
• 17:16
  I had yes on this one.
• 17:17
  As you know,
• 17:17
  I've held that for a while.
• 17:18
  I did the same thing kind of with that one
• 17:21
  in that I sold that in my Insta sell segment,
• 17:23
  um,
• 17:23
  or during the,
• 17:24
  right after the debate,
• 17:25
  just got out with another 20-something% profit.
• 17:27
  If I would have held it longer,
• 17:29
  I would have made more money.
• 17:30
  I'm completely fine doing it the way that I did it.
• 17:33
  Played the margin markets here as well.
• 17:34
  Here are some of the positions I had.
• 17:36
  Graham,
• 17:36
  at least 52%.
• 17:38
  That was a win.
• 17:39
  Graham,
• 17:40
  at least 53%.
• 17:42
  That was a loss.
• 17:43
  She got to 52.5%,
• 17:45
  so that one was a loss,
• 17:46
  small position,
• 17:47
  but still a loss.
• 17:48
  Um,
• 17:49
  then I had a Graham not by between 0 and 3%,
• 17:53
  and Norman not by between 30 and 3%.
• 17:56
  They have these bracketed margin markets.
• 17:57
  So,
• 17:58
  will they win between,
• 17:59
  will it be Graham by 0 to 3?
• 18:00
  Any other result,
• 18:01
  you win.
• 18:02
  I went no on both of those,
• 18:03
  Graham and Norman to be that close.
• 18:04
  It was pretty close to being wrong,
• 18:07
  but I was happy with that position
• 18:08
  and wound up profiting,
• 18:09
  uh,
• 18:10
  well over 20% on both of those.
• 18:12
  Uh,
• 18:12
  then we have,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:14
  a couple of others.
• 18:16
  Marker positions,
• 18:18
  small ones.
• 18:19
  I went and I mentioned this in the live chat,
• 18:21
  very small positions,
• 18:22
  marker positions,
• 18:23
  the smallest level that we have
• 18:25
  on blowout long shots.
• 18:27
  Buying these at about 1 or 2% to see if maybe one
• 18:30
  just kind of comes out of nowhere,
• 18:32
  blows out the other candidate.
• 18:33
  None of that happened,
• 18:34
  so I lost on those.
• 18:36
  Graham at 62% was a loss.
• 18:38
  Graham less than 38%,
• 18:39
  a loss.
• 18:40
  Norman less than 38%,
• 18:41
  a loss.
• 18:42
  Norman more than 59%,
• 18:44
  a loss.
• 18:45
  Uh,
• 18:46
  those are all tiny,
• 18:46
  tiny positions,
• 18:47
  uh,
• 18:48
  but that's OK.
• 18:48
  OK,
• 18:49
  and then Oklahoma Democratic Senate Thomas,
• 18:50
  I had a,
• 18:51
  um,
• 18:51
  a small position on that as well,
• 18:53
  which was a win.
• 18:53
  So overall,
• 18:54
  this is an interesting
• 18:56
  thing to talk about
• 18:57
  because this is how much
• 18:59
  size matters.
• 19:00
  Isn't that one of our elect,
• 19:01
  uh,
• 19:02
  Don't we have a size,
• 19:03
  yes,
• 19:04
  16th Amendment to the Constitution.
• 19:06
  What is it?
• 19:07
  Size
• 19:08
  does
• 19:09
  matter.
• 19:09
  This is a great example.
• 19:10
  I wanna take this quickly and compare it to the Francesca Hong week that we had
• 19:15
  a while ago.
• 19:16
  Um,
• 19:17
  my record,
• 19:18
  uh,
• 19:18
  yet last night,
• 19:19
  wins and losses,
• 19:20
  was 9 and 4.
• 19:21
  I lost 4 marker positions.
• 19:23
  Uh,
• 19:24
  everything that I went big on,
• 19:25
  we,
• 19:25
  we won,
• 19:26
  uh,
• 19:26
  but my tiny positions I lost.
• 19:27
  My record was 9 and 4,
• 19:28
  which might be the worst
• 19:30
  percentage
• 19:31
  record that I've had this entire season.
• 19:34
  However,
• 19:35
  I lost on the really small ones and I won on the big ones.
• 19:38
  On the Francesca Hong night,
• 19:40
  I went up with a,
• 19:41
  I think a medium position,
• 19:43
  I think a medium position on Francesca Hong.
• 19:45
  Uh,
• 19:46
  after,
• 19:46
  uh,
• 19:47
  some late buys
• 19:48
  and wound up losing on that,
• 19:50
  and despite going 27 and 2 on the night,
• 19:53
  I wound up barely making any money at all.
• 19:55
  I did much better last night,
• 19:56
  uh,
• 19:56
  so that's kind of where I was on the election.
• 19:58
  It's really important how you size these
• 20:01
  and always size them with your confidence level.
• 20:03
  If you're taking a freaking long shot,
• 20:05
  don't dump in a ton of money on that long shot.
• 20:08
  Sure,
• 20:08
  if you hit it,
• 20:09
  it'll be fantastic,
• 20:11
  but if you kind of go the other way and you just sit back and you say,
• 20:13
  well,
• 20:14
  wait a minute.
• 20:15
  Do I really need to go huge here?
• 20:17
  Let's go with a small position
• 20:19
  on,
• 20:19
  you know,
• 20:20
  something,
• 20:20
  cause if it hits,
• 20:21
  I'll still make some money and it'll be nice,
• 20:22
  but,
• 20:23
  uh,
• 20:24
  you know,
• 20:24
  it won't,
• 20:24
  won't wipe me out if I lose.
• 20:26
  And when you're really confident and you
• 20:27
  have a really strong position on something,
• 20:29
  that's where you can upscale those sizes.
• 20:31
  That is a big thing to learn and honestly,
• 20:33
  as you,
• 20:34
  as I said with Francesca Hong,
• 20:35
  I kind of missed the boat on that one.
• 20:36
  It does,
• 20:37
  it does happen.
• 20:39
  Look,
• 20:39
  I,
• 20:39
  I,
• 20:40
  I'm not perfect.
• 20:40
  I make mistakes sometimes as well.
• 20:43
  You guys
• 20:44
  pretty much were perfect last night.
• 20:45
  It's time for audience,
• 20:47
  winners and losers.
• 20:56
  You want the good news first or you want the bad news first.
• 20:58
  Uh,
• 20:58
  on a segment like this,
• 20:59
  I want the bad news first.
• 21:00
  I want to start with the losers first and then end on the high note of the winners.
• 21:03
  But here's the problem.
• 21:05
  And I was watching this throughout the chat the entire time.
• 21:06
  Almost everybody
• 21:08
  who was a predictable show subscriber
• 21:10
  did pretty darn well on this one last night.
• 21:12
  This is as close as I could get to a loser,
• 21:14
  and I wanna,
• 21:15
  I wanna explain this with the next one as well.
• 21:17
  Uh,
• 21:17
  Michigan 25,
• 21:19
  25 says,
• 21:19
  I had Darlene,
• 21:21
  but dumped it over the weekend at a loss because I got spooked.
• 21:25
  OK.
• 21:26
  Premium subscriber,
• 21:27
  by the way,
• 21:27
  thanks so much for uh joining us.
• 21:29
  I wanna combine,
• 21:29
  I wanna pair that with this one.
• 21:30
  DeShono winner,
• 21:31
  uh,
• 21:32
  here.
• 21:32
  DeShono says,
• 21:33
  held on to Graham,
• 21:34
  really glad.
• 21:35
  She's also a premium subscriber.
• 21:37
  Thank you so much for joining us at PredictableShow.com.
• 21:39
  Now,
• 21:40
  You look at that and do you say the first guy is a loser?
• 21:43
  Was he a loser?
• 21:44
  I mean,
• 21:44
  I don't think he's a loser in real life.
• 21:46
  Um,
• 21:46
  he seems to be a fine,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:47
  fine person,
• 21:48
  uh,
• 21:48
  but,
• 21:49
  uh,
• 21:49
  a fine gentleman.
• 21:51
  But
• 21:52
  is he a loser?
• 21:55
  You know,
• 21:55
  look,
• 21:56
  things could have worked out better for him.
• 21:58
  He dumped it at a loss,
• 21:59
  that kind of sucks.
• 22:00
  He got nervous,
• 22:01
  and he lost a little bit.
• 22:02
  But the 8,
• 22:04
  17th,
• 22:05
  8,
• 22:06
  mhm.
• 22:08
  Wait a minute.
• 22:08
  I know we have one on this.
• 22:10
  Wait,
• 22:10
  the 17th Amendment's wrong on my card.
• 22:11
  What's the 17th Amendment?
• 22:12
  Put it up on the,
• 22:13
  on the screen.
• 22:14
  I think you wrote,
• 22:14
  uh,
• 22:15
  wrote an old one on this card here.
• 22:16
  17th Amendment is a,
• 22:17
  yeah,
• 22:17
  the smaller loss is a win.
• 22:19
  This is wrong on my card up here,
• 22:22
  the small,
• 22:22
  the smaller loss is a win.
• 22:25
  There's another amendment here that I tried to,
• 22:27
  uh,
• 22:27
  I almost put it as an amendment,
• 22:28
  but I didn't wind up doing it.
• 22:29
  Anyway,
• 22:30
  smaller loss is a win.
• 22:31
  And sometimes,
• 22:32
  you know,
• 22:32
  like,
• 22:32
  yeah,
• 22:32
  we can all look back now
• 22:34
  and we could say,
• 22:34
  well,
• 22:34
  Darlene Graham won and he he threw.
• 22:36
  Threw the profit away.
• 22:37
  He could have held all the way to 100.
• 22:38
  Yeah,
• 22:38
  he could have,
• 22:40
  but,
• 22:40
  uh,
• 22:40
  he didn't know that going in,
• 22:42
  and if he wasn't sure about it,
• 22:44
  there's no,
• 22:45
  there's no shame in taking a small loss
• 22:47
  on a position you're not sure of.
• 22:48
  Yeah,
• 22:49
  sometimes it feels like it sucks,
• 22:50
  and I could feel like my,
• 22:52
  uh,
• 22:52
  Darlene Graham,
• 22:53
  uh,
• 22:53
  position sucked as well,
• 22:55
  because as you know,
• 22:55
  I said it right on the air when I did it.
• 22:57
  I sold after that debate moment.
• 22:59
  Why?
• 22:59
  I wasn't no,
• 23:00
  I was no longer as confident as I previously was.
• 23:03
  And I didn't want to open myself up
• 23:05
  to uh to to to a loss when I had new information.
• 23:09
  It's OK to do that.
• 23:11
  Sometimes I think we,
• 23:11
  we call that panic selling.
• 23:13
  Sometimes it's OK though,
• 23:14
  and,
• 23:14
  uh,
• 23:15
  and don't feel bad about that.
• 23:16
  That,
• 23:16
  that's the far from the worst-case scenario there.
• 23:19
  Uh,
• 23:20
  so,
• 23:20
  I don't know if we have any losers today.
• 23:21
  We have lots more winners though.
• 23:23
  Catch-22 said made quite a bit in the Darlene
• 23:26
  3 to 6 market.
• 23:27
  That's,
• 23:27
  uh,
• 23:27
  the bracketed margin market,
• 23:29
  so winning by 3 to 6%.
• 23:31
  As usual,
• 23:32
  wish I would have invested more.
• 23:33
  That is,
• 23:34
  we all say that all the time.
• 23:35
  Uh.
• 23:35
  Bought no on Darlene.
• 23:36
  This is Sharon F.
• 23:37
  Bought no on Darlene at 6 to 9%.
• 23:40
  Bought it at 72%,
• 23:41
  sold it at 98%.
• 23:42
  Should also have invested more.
• 23:44
  We all
• 23:45
  want to invest more in retrospect when we win.
• 23:47
  Uh,
• 23:48
  John Kelly writes,
• 23:49
  bought no on Darlene and Norman,
• 23:51
  0 to 3.
• 23:52
  This is one of the picks that we
• 23:53
  put out to our premium subscribers.
• 23:55
  Took my profit at 98.99% respectively and early.
• 23:58
  Small position since getting walloped on Hong,
• 24:01
  I've been gun shy.
• 24:02
  Yeah,
• 24:02
  I kind of have a little bit,
• 24:03
  honestly,
• 24:04
  as well a couple of times.
• 24:05
  Uh,
• 24:05
  Patrick Cranston writes,
• 24:07
  made 20% on a large mazy position and 15% on a medium Graham position
• 24:12
  tonight.
• 24:12
  That's a great
• 24:13
  collection of wins.
• 24:14
  Another premium subscriber there.
• 24:16
  Took the no,
• 24:17
  this is Renee,
• 24:18
  took the no on Graham
• 24:19
  and Norman at 0.3% that Stu mentioned earlier today on the premium chat.
• 24:24
  Uh,
• 24:24
  small positions but made over 20% in less than half a day.
• 24:29
  Nothing wrong with that,
• 24:30
  boys and girls,
• 24:31
  uh,
• 24:31
  predictableShow.com.
• 24:32
  You can get those picks,
• 24:33
  uh,
• 24:33
  as well,
• 24:33
  nice and early.
• 24:35
  And Ryan Carter cleaned up,
• 24:36
  uh,
• 24:36
  had an amazing night,
• 24:38
  100% of my positions for today's primary.
• 24:40
  Yes on Graham,
• 24:41
  No on Norman,
• 24:42
  yes on Maisie,
• 24:44
  no on both Graham and Norman,
• 24:45
  margin of victory,
• 24:46
  0 to 3%.
• 24:48
  No on Maisie,
• 24:49
  margin of victory over 15%.
• 24:52
  Thank you,
• 24:52
  predictable team,
• 24:53
  and Stu.
• 24:55
  Look,
• 24:55
  this is kind of the thing last night.
• 24:56
  I would say.
• 24:57
  You know,
• 24:58
  outside of the Francesca Hong one,
• 25:00
  which was mixed,
• 25:01
  uh,
• 25:01
  not everybody lost on that.
• 25:02
  I,
• 25:03
  uh,
• 25:03
  got burned on that particular contract.
• 25:05
  Uh,
• 25:06
  that,
• 25:06
  that particular evening was the one bumpy road I would say that we've had.
• 25:11
  Uh,
• 25:11
  in the primary season,
• 25:12
  but generally speaking,
• 25:13
  last couple of weeks have been really,
• 25:15
  really strong
• 25:16
  for the,
• 25:16
  for the predictable posse,
• 25:18
  uh,
• 25:18
  kind of out there,
• 25:19
  just churning away,
• 25:20
  nice gains as we build towards November.
• 25:23
  We're building this together
• 25:24
  and we have a lot more to come.
• 25:26
  I'm gonna be starting,
• 25:27
  as I mentioned a little bit earlier on the program,
• 25:29
  you're gonna start getting picks every single day,
• 25:31
  starting.
• 25:31
  I think next week,
• 25:33
  um,
• 25:33
  every single day we'll give you another,
• 25:35
  uh,
• 25:36
  market to watch for this election period.
• 25:38
  There's a lot of them out there and there's
• 25:40
  a lot in the area that I
• 25:42
  just adore,
• 25:43
  that 70,
• 25:44
  80% marked,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  area which I feel like should be 95,
• 25:48
  right?
• 25:49
  Finding those
• 25:50
  and,
• 25:50
  uh,
• 25:51
  getting in them now.
• 25:53
  Is is the right time to do it.
• 25:55
  There,
• 25:55
  there are,
• 25:56
  there are a lot of arguments on both sides of this,
• 25:58
  of course,
• 25:59
  and we'll cover them.
• 26:00
  There's a couple of really good
• 26:01
  interesting arguments I wanna get to maybe next week as to where this election
• 26:05
  might go.
• 26:06
  I'll give you a catastrophic situation.
• 26:08
  I'll give you an optimistic conversation as well,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:10
  but
• 26:11
  these individual places are places where I'm looking to
• 26:13
  park a decent amount of money as we lead up
• 26:16
  to the election,
• 26:16
  so.
• 26:17
  Join us,
• 26:18
  it's gonna be a heck of a ride,
• 26:19
  69 more days to go.
• 26:21
  Join us at PredictableShow.com,
• 26:22
  Predictableshow.com on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast as well.
• 26:27
  We have more in just a second.
• 26:38
  I was able to,
• 26:39
  uh,
• 26:39
  do Greg Gutfeld,
• 26:40
  uh,
• 26:40
  this week and,
• 26:41
  um,
• 26:42
  it was,
• 26:42
  it was funny,
• 26:43
  uh,
• 26:44
  you know,
• 26:44
  going,
• 26:45
  going through all that.
• 26:46
  At one point,
• 26:46
  um,
• 26:47
  we were talking about prediction markets.
• 26:48
  I,
• 26:49
  I did,
• 26:49
  I was able to get my screwworm take on Fox News,
• 26:53
  which I
• 26:54
  probably the best thing I've ever done in my career,
• 26:55
  frankly.
• 26:56
  I was talking about screwworm awareness,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:58
  on Fox News Channel,
• 26:59
  um,
• 27:00
  but,
• 27:00
  uh,
• 27:00
  he was asking me,
• 27:01
  Greg was asking me about,
• 27:02
  um,
• 27:03
  the.
• 27:04
  You know,
• 27:04
  the whole thing with prediction markets,
• 27:06
  like how do you make money on them?
• 27:07
  How does it,
• 27:07
  how does it work?
• 27:08
  Um,
• 27:09
  and he said,
• 27:09
  you know,
• 27:09
  what,
• 27:10
  so you're betting on this and I investing,
• 27:12
  and then he's like,
• 27:13
  so basically you're betting on,
• 27:14
  I'm like,
• 27:14
  uh,
• 27:15
  yeah,
• 27:15
  but investing.
• 27:16
  Like I,
• 27:16
  you know,
• 27:17
  look.
• 27:18
  The the courts are gonna figure out what they think the legal definition of this is.
• 27:22
  I have strong opinions on that.
• 27:23
  I've shared them with you before.
• 27:25
  But frankly,
• 27:26
  like when it comes down to real-world,
• 27:28
  like how normal people think about it,
• 27:30
  you can make almost anything feel like gambling.
• 27:33
  If you wanna make eating feel like gambling,
• 27:36
  I got news for you.
• 27:36
  You can go right into any gas station and get the gas station sushi.
• 27:39
  It's gonna feel like gambling.
• 27:41
  That's,
• 27:42
  you know,
• 27:42
  if you go and you,
• 27:43
  you go on the stock market and you buy a bunch of meme stocks,
• 27:46
  it's probably gonna feel a lot like Gambling.
• 27:48
  If you go on there and you buy blue chip stocks,
• 27:50
  it's gonna probably feel a lot more like investing.
• 27:52
  Like that's just the,
• 27:53
  the way that this is.
• 27:54
  I bring this up because this is,
• 27:56
  uh,
• 27:56
  in the news today.
• 27:57
  DraftKings
• 27:57
  aggressively markets prediction platform
• 28:00
  in California,
• 28:01
  sports betting's
• 28:02
  holy,
• 28:02
  uh,
• 28:03
  sport betting's holy grail,
• 28:04
  they call it.
• 28:05
  Now,
• 28:06
  I understand that,
• 28:07
  and of course prediction markets.
• 28:09
  Again,
• 28:10
  once again,
• 28:11
  they can't ban them in these states.
• 28:12
  They're gonna lose in court,
• 28:13
  I think.
• 28:14
  Um,
• 28:14
  but anyway,
• 28:15
  they shouldn't be,
• 28:16
  uh,
• 28:16
  be doing any of that.
• 28:17
  Um,
• 28:18
  so it's,
• 28:19
  this is a way
• 28:20
  to,
• 28:20
  to get,
• 28:21
  um,
• 28:21
  you know,
• 28:22
  there's a bunch of sports contracts that DraftKings is trying to push out there and,
• 28:24
  you know,
• 28:25
  they're trying to say,
• 28:25
  OK,
• 28:26
  well,
• 28:26
  this is as close as we can get to gambling in here,
• 28:28
  so we'll do it.
• 28:29
  Now,
• 28:29
  there are things that you can do that on
• 28:31
  prediction markets that are very similar to sports gambling,
• 28:33
  right?
• 28:33
  And a lot of times they feel
• 28:34
  almost precisely,
• 28:35
  they're not.
• 28:36
  You know,
• 28:37
  I mean,
• 28:37
  uh,
• 28:37
  like,
• 28:37
  for example,
• 28:38
  if DraftKings
• 28:39
  has a,
• 28:40
  you know,
• 28:40
  if you go on DraftKings and you blow $1000
• 28:42
  DraftKings gets $1000
• 28:44
  right?
• 28:44
  If you go on CalSci or Polymarket and you blow $1000
• 28:48
  some other trader gets $1000 and those two institutions get small fees.
• 28:52
  It's a totally different setup.
• 28:54
  You're not trading against Calci or polymarket.
• 28:57
  That's one of the distinctions.
• 28:59
  The other part is like,
• 29:00
  you know,
• 29:01
  prediction markets are kind of everything.
• 29:04
  There's like,
• 29:05
  for example,
• 29:06
  stock market,
• 29:07
  right?
• 29:07
  You can go on the stock market,
• 29:08
  you can go on these companies and you can invest in these companies.
• 29:10
  No one calls,
• 29:11
  I mean,
• 29:11
  colloquially,
• 29:12
  you might say,
• 29:12
  I'm betting on,
• 29:13
  you know,
• 29:13
  uh,
• 29:14
  Eli Lilly to do,
• 29:15
  to do well.
• 29:16
  Um,
• 29:16
  but,
• 29:17
  you know,
• 29:17
  generally speaking,
• 29:18
  you think of that as an investment.
• 29:19
  Well,
• 29:20
  look at prediction markets and what they're doing right now with KPIs,
• 29:23
  key performance indicators.
• 29:24
  Look at this right now.
• 29:25
  This is,
• 29:25
  uh,
• 29:25
  this is Calshi's page for KPIs.
• 29:28
  Uh,
• 29:28
  well,
• 29:28
  how many,
• 29:29
  uh,
• 29:29
  Urban Outfitters total stores in quarter two?
• 29:33
  Uh,
• 29:34
  you're,
• 29:34
  you're doing,
• 29:35
  how is that gambling or is that investing,
• 29:37
  right?
• 29:38
  You know,
• 29:38
  the stock market has Dollar General,
• 29:40
  same source sales growth in Q2.
• 29:43
  Best Buy domestic comparable store sales in Q2.
• 29:46
  Now,
• 29:46
  what I feel about this,
• 29:47
  keep this on the screen for a second.
• 29:49
  All of these things are to me,
• 29:51
  much more accessible
• 29:53
  than actually buying the stocks because,
• 29:55
  frankly,
• 29:55
  there's so many factors going on behind the scenes when it comes to a stock price.
• 29:59
  It could just be like,
• 30:01
  one of the smart people at the company decides to get
• 30:03
  hired by somebody else or gets hit by a truck,
• 30:05
  right?
• 30:06
  These are much more accessible metrics if you're into,
• 30:08
  if you're following Urban Outfitters to try to
• 30:10
  figure out how many stores will they have.
• 30:12
  Well,
• 30:12
  they have a whole list of options.
• 30:13
  Scroll down a little bit.
• 30:14
  There's a bunch of companies here
• 30:15
  and what is,
• 30:16
  does this feel like gambling or does this feel more like investing to you?
• 30:20
  You know,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:21
  Ulta,
• 30:21
  how many transactions or what transaction growth level will they have in Q2?
• 30:25
  Is that uh,
• 30:26
  is that gambling?
• 30:27
  No,
• 30:28
  it's,
• 30:28
  it's,
• 30:28
  it's as boring as you could possibly get,
• 30:30
  right?
• 30:31
  It's a,
• 30:31
  it's very,
• 30:32
  it's a much more accessible form
• 30:34
  of,
• 30:34
  of,
• 30:35
  uh,
• 30:35
  I believe,
• 30:36
  as far as going in and,
• 30:37
  uh,
• 30:37
  uh,
• 30:38
  uh,
• 30:38
  when it comes to,
• 30:38
  uh,
• 30:39
  stock market investing,
• 30:40
  and they have tons and tons of customers.
• 30:41
  So if you are a business person,
• 30:42
  if you like investing,
• 30:43
  There's tons of options like that.
• 30:45
  The other thing you can do
• 30:46
  is hedge positions that you have.
• 30:47
  Like,
• 30:48
  if you're,
• 30:48
  if you have,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:49
  you know,
• 30:49
  Ulta stock,
• 30:51
  and you're like,
• 30:51
  well,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:52
  I,
• 30:52
  you know,
• 30:53
  my stock's gonna go down if they're below this metric,
• 30:55
  you can hedge your position.
• 30:57
  That you already have
• 30:58
  with those metrics.
• 30:59
  These are incredible tools,
• 31:01
  uh,
• 31:02
  and I,
• 31:02
  you know,
• 31:03
  they always look at it the same,
• 31:04
  the same way.
• 31:05
  Um,
• 31:05
  there is also an interesting story when the with Major League Baseball,
• 31:09
  since we're in the sports world,
• 31:10
  Major League Baseball,
• 31:11
  uh,
• 31:12
  teams keep striking partnerships with prediction markets.
• 31:14
  What happens next?
• 31:15
  Now this is typically,
• 31:16
  it's New York Times athletic.
• 31:17
  Uh,
• 31:17
  I would not have written this this way.
• 31:19
  Uh,
• 31:20
  Calci announced sponsorships with 5 Major league franchises,
• 31:23
  the Braves,
• 31:23
  Red Sox,
• 31:24
  Dodgers,
• 31:24
  Padres,
• 31:25
  and Giants.
• 31:26
  They joined the Mets and Yankees who had earlier announced
• 31:28
  their own deals with Novig and Poly Market respectively.
• 31:31
  Calci is also importantly,
• 31:33
  uh,
• 31:33
  in talks for a league-level deal,
• 31:34
  which is interesting because I thought Poly Market was,
• 31:37
  had already had a league-wide deal for Major League Baseball.
• 31:40
  I could,
• 31:41
  I could be wrong on that.
• 31:42
  Um,
• 31:43
  what's interesting about this though
• 31:45
  is,
• 31:45
  uh,
• 31:47
  You have that dynamic of
• 31:49
  this weird
• 31:51
  stated thing where like,
• 31:52
  now
• 31:53
  you have,
• 31:54
  um,
• 31:55
  uh,
• 31:55
  Major League Baseball and all these leagues that for
• 31:57
  years and years and years fought any idea,
• 32:00
  like they just wanted to deny that people were interested in their game in this way.
• 32:04
  Everyone was just rooting for their home team and that was it.
• 32:06
  No one was playing fantasy sports,
• 32:07
  no one was gambling,
• 32:08
  no one was doing anything,
• 32:09
  predicting anything about anything.
• 32:10
  Don't worry about that.
• 32:12
  They've adapted to the reality of this situation,
• 32:14
  and there's positives and like,
• 32:16
  again,
• 32:17
  There's positives and negatives when it comes to this stuff.
• 32:20
  If you're going out there and blowing all your money
• 32:22
  on a prediction market or gambling or anything else,
• 32:25
  you're probably having really bad experiences.
• 32:27
  Um,
• 32:28
  you know,
• 32:29
  you,
• 32:29
  if you're
• 32:30
  going into it that way in a,
• 32:32
  with a gambling mindset,
• 32:33
  you're likely to lose over a long period of time.
• 32:37
  If you look at it as with an entertainment aspect kind of in mind,
• 32:40
  you're saying,
• 32:40
  hey,
• 32:41
  I could spend $25 going to the movies tonight,
• 32:44
  or I could sit on my couch
• 32:46
  and not have to put pants on
• 32:47
  and spend $25 on a prediction market or,
• 32:50
  uh,
• 32:51
  uh,
• 32:51
  you know,
• 32:51
  a gambling website or whatever,
• 32:53
  whichever way you wanna go,
• 32:54
  depending on how you wanna play it.
• 32:55
  Um,
• 32:56
  and,
• 32:56
  uh,
• 32:57
  and I'll get 25 bucks of entertainment,
• 32:59
  and,
• 32:59
  uh,
• 32:59
  I don't have to get out of my boxers.
• 33:01
  Uh,
• 33:01
  if that's more in tune with what you want,
• 33:04
  if you look at it that way,
• 33:05
  you know,
• 33:06
  the one thing I will say,
• 33:07
  you never win at the end of a movie.
• 33:11
  You,
• 33:11
  you're always down 100% at the end of the movie.
• 33:13
  You're always down 100% after you buy something,
• 33:16
  like,
• 33:16
  you,
• 33:16
  you get the entertainment and then it's over.
• 33:19
  Right?
• 33:20
  When it comes to,
• 33:21
  uh,
• 33:21
  you know,
• 33:22
  looking at this,
• 33:22
  if you look at it with the right mindset,
• 33:25
  small amounts,
• 33:26
  having fun,
• 33:26
  money you can afford to lose,
• 33:28
  using it for entertainment,
• 33:30
  you know,
• 33:30
  I have no,
• 33:30
  no problem with it whatsoever.
• 33:32
  Um,
• 33:32
  and I will,
• 33:33
  by the way,
• 33:34
  uh,
• 33:34
  also look for great opportunities for you.
• 33:36
  Uh,
• 33:36
  one quick.
• 33:39
  One quick episode of,
• 33:40
  Here's one I kind of like.
• 33:48
  Sometimes you have seasons that are magical
• 33:51
  until
• 33:51
  for whatever reason,
• 33:52
  whatever you've done to someone in the past,
• 33:54
  you are struck down,
• 33:56
  uh,
• 33:56
  in the most painful way possible,
• 33:58
  as we saw with my Toronto Blue Jays last year in the World Series,
• 34:01
  who lost the World Series
• 34:03
  by literally 1 centimeter.
• 34:05
  Uh,
• 34:06
  IKF's foot is this far off the plate,
• 34:09
  this,
• 34:10
  this far.
• 34:11
  This,
• 34:11
  that's all we needed was just to come.
• 34:13
  Just come down
• 34:14
  and just touch the plate and the whole thing is over.
• 34:16
  There are 10 different moments like that in that World Series.
• 34:18
  I will be tortured by it until the end of time.
• 34:22
  And that being said,
• 34:23
  it still felt like a magical season because the Blue Jays,
• 34:25
  frankly,
• 34:26
  going into the season,
• 34:27
  I did not have high expectations.
• 34:28
  Everything kind of went their way.
• 34:31
  Everything went the right way,
• 34:32
  they rolled all the way into the World Series and almost beat
• 34:35
  the $500 trillion budget
• 34:38
  Los Angeles Dodgers.
• 34:40
  Not that the Blue Jays don't spend a lot of money,
• 34:42
  they do,
• 34:42
  but
• 34:43
  This season.
• 34:45
  Has been an entirely different animal.
• 34:48
  Every good thing
• 34:49
  that happened last year for the Blue Jays has gone the opposite way
• 34:53
  this year.
• 34:53
  And now
• 34:54
  we stand away from the playoffs,
• 34:56
  uh,
• 34:57
  with 29 games for the Blue Jays remaining.
• 34:59
  They are,
• 35:00
  I believe,
• 35:00
  3 games out of the last wild card,
• 35:02
  and they have a chance at this.
• 35:03
  Every team they play
• 35:05
  until the end of the season
• 35:06
  is below 500.
• 35:08
  They've got 30 games,
• 35:09
  they had 30,
• 35:10
  they lost the 1st 1,
• 35:11
  30 games against teams below 500.
• 35:14
  If they play
• 35:16
  relatively well,
• 35:17
  they have a good chance.
• 35:19
  At
• 35:20
  getting that last wild card spot.
• 35:21
  So that,
• 35:22
  all that should be said,
• 35:23
  I want to show you
• 35:24
  the uh uh market on
• 35:26
  who will make the playoffs.
• 35:28
  In the major leagues.
• 35:29
  Here we go right now.
• 35:30
  Uh,
• 35:30
  you see here,
• 35:31
  let's scroll down to some of the options here.
• 35:32
  Obviously,
• 35:33
  like teams like Atlanta,
• 35:34
  they're all in.
• 35:35
  Dodgers are in,
• 35:36
  Yankees are in.
• 35:37
  Boston is basically in 97%,
• 35:39
  Cubs,
• 35:39
  97%,
• 35:40
  Philly,
• 35:40
  9 91%.
• 35:42
  Scroll down,
• 35:42
  you got,
• 35:43
  uh,
• 35:43
  Cleveland about 50%,
• 35:44
  Houston,
• 35:44
  47%,
• 35:45
  Seattle,
• 35:46
  uh,
• 35:46
  uh,
• 35:47
  44%,
• 35:49
  um,
• 35:49
  Arizona,
• 35:50
  uh,
• 35:50
  they're in the 39,
• 35:51
  Texas,
• 35:52
  38,
• 35:52
  and Toronto,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:54
  18%.
• 35:56
  I,
• 35:57
  I've watched this team all year.
• 35:59
  I've watched
• 36:01
  Every one of their guys get hurt.
• 36:03
  I've sat there and just dealt with
• 36:06
  over and over and over,
• 36:08
  one of their big free agent uh
• 36:10
  pickups,
• 36:11
  getting on the mound,
• 36:12
  throwing one good inning,
• 36:13
  and then
• 36:14
  going to field a ground ball and just his knee turns
• 36:17
  inside out on the field and he's out for the season.
• 36:19
  This has been happening
• 36:21
  all year to this team.
• 36:22
  I
• 36:23
  don't believe
• 36:25
  they can make the playoffs at all.
• 36:27
  18% is 18% too high for me.
• 36:30
  Now,
• 36:30
  part of this is me hedging my life,
• 36:31
  I have to admit,
• 36:32
  but I am full out invested in no,
• 36:35
  they are not making the playoffs,
• 36:37
  no on the 18%.
• 36:39
  No,
• 36:39
  no,
• 36:40
  no.
• 36:40
  Even though they've played relatively well lately,
• 36:42
  something's going to go wrong.
• 36:47
  Take no.
• 36:48
  No.
• 36:48
  Look,
• 36:49
  I don't give investment advice,
• 36:50
  but for me,
• 36:51
  I'm taking no.
• 36:53
  All day long on my Toronto Blue Jays making the playoffs.
• 36:55
  It just doesn't seem like good things can happen to them this year.
• 36:58
  And you know what?
• 36:59
  Now they got to deal not only with not making the playoffs,
• 37:01
  but like 50% tariffs on everything.
• 37:03
  So it's been a rough year.
• 37:04
  It's been a rough freaking year for Canada,
• 37:07
  I will say.
• 37:07
  Then they lose,
• 37:08
  they lost in the,
• 37:09
  then in the Olympics,
• 37:10
  was that this last year?
• 37:11
  Was that the,
• 37:12
  the World Baseball Classic they lost in?
• 37:14
  They they lost the World Series.
• 37:16
  It's uh 50% tariffs.
• 37:18
  The guy who's ahead of the country is like,
• 37:20
  oh,
• 37:20
  we're at war with America.
• 37:21
  Good phrasing.
• 37:22
  Yeah,
• 37:23
  that's a,
• 37:23
  that's a really good thing to start saying
• 37:25
  right now,
• 37:26
  Canada.
• 37:26
  Brilliant way to bring that up.
• 37:28
  Love you,
• 37:28
  Canada.
• 37:29
  Love you.
• 37:31
  But I would just start saying we're at war with America.
• 37:33
  Probably not the the sort of language you wanna start using.
• 37:37
  Uh,
• 37:37
  that being said,
• 37:38
  uh,
• 37:39
  we've totally broken our agreements with them.
• 37:41
  Totally different story.
• 37:42
  Long story short though,
• 37:43
  uh,
• 37:43
  say no on the Blue Jays because my team is just not gonna be able to make it this year.
• 37:47
  I'm sorry.
• 37:48
  That's just the way it's gonna be.
• 37:49
  OK.
• 37:50
  Uh,
• 37:50
  that's all we have time for today.
• 37:51
  Tomorrow I am,
• 37:52
  uh,
• 37:52
  off.
• 37:53
  Uh,
• 37:53
  I'm gonna be traveling,
• 37:54
  but I will be doing some live streaming and stuff probably over the weekend.
• 37:56
  I will definitely be at the Predictable show
• 37:58
  chat.
• 37:59
  I got it coming into my phone all the time.
• 38:01
  Whenever I pick it up,
• 38:01
  I have,
• 38:02
  you know,
• 38:02
  I don't scroll through social media
• 38:04
  as much,
• 38:05
  uh.
• 38:05
  I'm trying to eliminate that as much as I can for my life.
• 38:07
  A lot of times when I'm just spending time
• 38:09
  just like clicking around wanting to read about stuff,
• 38:11
  I'm on the sub stack page,
• 38:12
  predictableShow.com,
• 38:13
  reading your comments,
• 38:14
  answering them.
• 38:15
  I had a,
• 38:15
  you know,
• 38:15
  3 or 4 lengthy responses.
• 38:18
  People were like,
• 38:18
  I just wanted a sentence.
• 38:19
  I,
• 38:20
  I.
• 38:21
  You know,
• 38:21
  I mean,
• 38:21
  and this is,
• 38:22
  this is me,
• 38:23
  so I can't do that for you.
• 38:24
  But,
• 38:24
  uh,
• 38:24
  I would love you to join us at predictableshow.com.
• 38:26
  Lots of great stuff coming up.
• 38:28
  Um,
• 38:28
  I will,
• 38:29
  uh,
• 38:29
  if I have any picks,
• 38:30
  we'll be putting them up in the predictable,
• 38:33
  uh,
• 38:33
  chat premium tier.
• 38:35
  One last pitch for you,
• 38:36
  you got a live stream of the show.
• 38:38
  You got a great community.
• 38:39
  We answer tons and tons of questions on the chat
• 38:41
  on a daily basis over there.
• 38:43
  You get every single pick I have in every prediction market.
• 38:46
  Over 200 of them are currently listed,
• 38:48
  and we update them,
• 38:49
  uh,
• 38:50
  every week,
• 38:50
  uh.
• 38:51
  And in the chat on the daily.
• 38:52
  Uh,
• 38:53
  we have all sorts of different stuff that we can,
• 38:55
  uh,
• 38:55
  get,
• 38:56
  get you there.
• 38:56
  It's,
• 38:57
  it's,
• 38:57
  it's worth it.
• 38:58
  If you're trading these markets.
• 38:59
  I really think it's worth it,
• 38:59
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• 39:01
  So join us Predictableshw.com premium tier.
• 39:05
  Thanks so much and we will see you later.