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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business Podcast

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock
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shadow.
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And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skullclo, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth
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Old Oak in
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Cape Town.
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The sensitivities of the market to various pronouncements that come out from people,
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various news bulletins and loose tongue talk from certain politicians.
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or business leaders or whatever, has changed over the weeks and the months,
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Skalk?
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Have you noticed that something three months ago, if you'd have said it or it
0:38
had happened,
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would have sent certain asset classes into a spiral or into a frenzy to the upside?
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Today, not so much.
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There's a very different and more sophisticated reaction of the markets to
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certain things that we've
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sadly become used to.
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Yeah.
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I mean, you've actually summed that up.
1:00
you know very well because as we said here we suddenly you know the wars
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off the wars on the wars off the wars on um and and things are escalating again and
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it's sort of it's bad markets
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are reacting you know very similarly or inversely like when we feel that the war's
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off um but but uh let's see i feel I feel a different vibe for the market.
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I really do.
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I've got a feeling that the market is looking at this and say, wait a minute.
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Okay, so let's just put this war aside because we joked about the infinity war
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last week.
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Let's just put the war aside for a second.
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Job numbers came out on Friday.
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So clearly the job market is still healthy in the US in such a way that in a more
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than double the amount of
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jobs.
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were created than expected.
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So now we're sitting between a rock and a really,
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really hard place because inflation is high and with tensions escalating again,
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we can sort of take it as a given that inflation will stay high and might even go
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higher.
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So Kevin Walsh coming in, he's sitting between a rock and a hard place because
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beginning of the year...
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when it was whispers in his ears that he'll be the guy, he'll be the guy taking
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the baton,
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he'll continue running with this, he'll come in, he'll drop interest rates, and
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he'll be a rock star.
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Sitting in an environment now where job markets are healthy, inflation is high,
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so he needs to hike rates.
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Something's going to happen.
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I mean, Kevin Walsh has said, almost as though it's sort of a precursor to him
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not...
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raising rates or not even hinting that he's going to raise rates.
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He says, well, AI is going to suppress inflation.
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So he's almost saying that don't worry about inflation at the moment and we'll
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come to that in a moment.
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But he's I'm not saying he's a Trump puppet.
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He says he's not a Trump puppet, but perhaps he's saying I am and this is the
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reason
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I'm going to stay fairly dovish.
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Consumer prices in the United States during the month of May.
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rose by 4.2% annually.
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That's the highest in three years.
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At the same time, the stock market is still relatively high, although showing
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some cracks.
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Trump says Iran will pay the price and claims they have taken too long to agree
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to a deal.
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The deal that he says is two, three days away, two weeks away for the last 104 days
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or whatever it is.
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He keeps on saying it.
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He's never been credible in my eyes, but to some people, he must...
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who have been devotees in the past, he must be starting to look a little bit
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silly, Skulk.
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I think he's feeling it.
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I mean, they're getting ready for this big party.
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The party on the lawn of the White House.
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They're going to have a few USC fighters there.
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They're going to bash it out.
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It's just going to be stunning.
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But I think he's worried now because I think he's sitting with the environment
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now where...
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He needs this war to end because effectively what we said is if inflation
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stays high,
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the cash prices are going to stay high.
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That's bad for a typical U.S. consumer.
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If Kevin Walsh comes in and says, well, I'm going to do the right thing, President
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Trump.
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I mean, unfortunately, I'm not going to give I'm going to need to raise or hike
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rates.
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And he does that.
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That means they're going to pay more for their debt.
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to service the debt plus they're going to pay more for for that that gas prices
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that's going to make him most probably one of the most
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unpopular and he's heading towards it if you look at the polls the the polls that
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are recently seen some of these polls it it
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seemed like this is not just losing traction he's losing traction at a country
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mile so
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Yeah.
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Is the market waiting for some sort of excuse?
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I look back to 1987 when I was cutting my teeth as a young broker in London.
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And there were several factors, but nobody can look back at 1987, the crash of,
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and say that was the reason for it.
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Some people say, well, it was interest rates.
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Some people say it was contributed to by the big storm.
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that swept across the southeast of England and closed markets before the days of
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24-hour digital markets.
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And I'm just looking at the market now and you saying that there's a different
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feeling to
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the market at the moment.
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And I get that as well.
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I just think that there's going to be some excuse to sell it off.
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And the one I can point to is the $3 trillion listings that are coming up in
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the United
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States.
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Open AI, Anthropic, and, of course, SpaceX.
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And money will be diverted from somewhere to go into those markets.
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You can't just create well, you can create money if you're the Fed, but you can't
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just create money if you're an asset manager.
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It's got to be shifted.
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And so it's not just going to be pulled out of thin air to go into SpaceX.
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It's got to come from somewhere, Skulk.
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And where is it going to come from?
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Somewhere else.
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It was interesting listening to you.
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You're talking about...
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Looking back at that crash, then looking back at the 1998 crash,
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it's always clear as milk.
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When you look back at it, it was so obvious.
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We should have seen it.
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The housing bubble, the financial crisis, it was so clear.
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Unfortunately, it's not there yet.
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And maybe it's like a few things.
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If we look at the 2000, let's call it a 2000 dot, I nearly said dot bomb again,
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because people rectified me the other day and said, well, it actually refers to the
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dot com, which was the year around about the 2000s,
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so late 90s.
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When you look at that massive pullback that we've seen in these tech stocks back
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then,
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it was justified, justified until it wasn't justified anymore.
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And I'm talking about the elevated prices.
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And now we've seen justification again.
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Now, but this time it's different.
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You need to look at how these companies are being priced.
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They actually got more profits these days.
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Back then it was more focused on turnover and how they're going to be growing, blah,
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It's always said,
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but remain.
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It's like Warren Buffett said, the foremost dangerous words still remain.
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This time will be different.
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I just look at...
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a Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. And we spoke about it last week.
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Listeners, I'm not going to talk about it again because then we're going to end up
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with another half-hour.
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Just give us a brief introduction to how important that is in your life as an
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indicator.
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It is important.
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It is important.
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This is the main, let's call it, US semiconductor.
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This is the VDS.
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This is the heart of AI.
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When you look at this index, Um, since the beginning of the year.
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As we sit here, and it had a big retracement, make no mistake.
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I mean, this index is actually now trading 6% to 7% down from its highs,
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which was a week or so ago.
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It's still, year to date, up more than 75%.
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After, let's just look at it three years.
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Three years, 250%, and over five years, we're sitting at 300%.
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Those are the things that I'm looking at.
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And suddenly people are going to realize, yes, AI is massive.
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I get it.
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Yes, AI will disrupt and take over the world.
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I get it.
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But we're going to look back, just like you've done now, in 10 to 20 years'
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time and say it was clear as daylight in this circumstance.
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Because why did we oversell the AI?
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Those prices should have never, those companies should have never.
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We should have never seen SpaceX come to the market as a $1.8 trillion company.
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We should have never.
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Look at those price to sales, which are actually coming to the market.
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If it actually comes and lists at these levels that they're talking about,
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this will be the most expensive company on the S&P 500.
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Okay, so you're justifying your internal thoughts.
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you Are you putting these thoughts out to your clients?
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And if so, are you saying this is the time for us to take protection?
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Protection may not be as cheap as it was three, four months ago,
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but it's still worth the insurance because something might happen.
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And therefore this...
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options strategy i know calls and puts a combination of the two and all sorts of
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fancy things that you're much clever
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at much cleverer at as a financial engineer than i am but are you taking
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protection and my short my
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short question yes yes and and that's protection funny enough people think ah he
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must be sitting in in
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cash now i mean gold is taking an almighty
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club so it won't be gold it will be cash no i think the one thing that that that
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the
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2000.com taught us was, yes, the tech stocks took a massive hiding.
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And more specifically, the S&P 500 or the US did nothing for 10 years.
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It actually retraced, had massive retracement, the actual fact.
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And then over the period, and I'm talking, I mean, we can go and look at it.
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May 1999 until May 2009, that 10-year period, the…
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S&P 500 did negative return over a 10-year period.
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But over that time, there was markets that really did really, really well.
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And this is where I'm going to get to.
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I think we're sitting at a pivot point.
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And I think there's going to be a crack somewhere along the line.
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Might have started, might start in the future.
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But somewhere along the line, there will be a crack where these prices will
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normalize.
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a lot of people will get really hurt because the exposure current to the S&P
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500,
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if you look at the MSCI world, we're talking about, what, 73%, 74%
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of the MSCI world now is just the US.
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I mean, so even people that said, hey, don't worry,
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I've got a global portfolio.
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I'm not just invested in the US.
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I'm invested in the MSCI world.
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I've got blah, blah, blah ETF.
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which is called the MSCI world.
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Those people need to be warned that, remember, although you've got a little
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word called world in your
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ETF or your passive investment, note that that investment is
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70-odd percent exposed to the S&P 500.
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And if you look at the S&P 500, more than 80%, something like 84%, 85%
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of the total return of the S&P 500 came from only 10 shares this year.
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It's very vulnerable.
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You put everything together and there'll be books written about what we are
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suggesting.
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We're not telling people that's going to happen, but there is a reasonable
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argument.
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If you're slightly cautious,
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as you obviously are as a man that is looking after lots and lots of clients'
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valuable funds,
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you have to be cautious.
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You can't be gung-ho bullish all the time.
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If it was your own portfolio on its own.
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in isolation.
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And of course, you can say what you like, do what you like.
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But when you're handling people's money, you have to be careful.
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And when I look at the JSC today, and I look at the major indices down over one
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and a half percent,
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and the resources down nearly four percent, and I'm looking at the S&P since
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we started talking, it was down about a third of a percent,
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now is down, was down around about two thirds two minutes ago.
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It's just looking a little bit shaky to me.
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And Skulk, I think the one is going to be the trillion dollar listings.
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You have given us lots of other reasons.
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But be careful.
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I think that's the word here.
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Careful.
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Correct.
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Correct.
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Okay.
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Let's have a look at some prices then.
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On that note, the Rand is virtually unchanged against the US dollar at 16.52.
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British pound against the Rand, 22.13.
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And the Euro Rand is 19.08.
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Euro dollar, 1.1545.
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Gold price, horrible day.
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41.23 I've got here.
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Down 3.3%. The platinum price.
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is down 1.2%, but the palladium price has gone up by 1.6% to 12.49.
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Platinum, incidentally, $16.91 per ounce.
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The oil price has steadied, and it's up 1.4%.
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That's Brent crude at $92.69, and West Texas, $89.75,
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up 1.75%.
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The copper price down 0.85%
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to $6.25 per pound.
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um what else have we got here south of continue bond yield 8.625 and the us
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10-year
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treasury 4.525 not really reacting to the 4.2 cpi figure coming from the states
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today sb500
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futures down
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0.6 now to 73.49 that's the june futures so it's essentially spot anyway what about
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bitcoin 61,875, that's up 1.2%, looking horrible.
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To me, and I've said it all along, it's going not to nothing,
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but it's going to 20,000 to 25,000 over the next year or so.
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And Skulk, that is what I've got for you.
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You sound nervous today.
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You don't sound your normal, ebullient, effusive self.
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There we go.
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Maybe it's because I'm looking at a very, very red market.
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You mentioned the gold, my love for gold.
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It looks vulnerable.
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I'm looking at
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the graph now as we sit here it's it's uh for for the technical lovers out there if
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you look at a
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a 50 day or 200 day moving average and i they do you see a proper break below the
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200 day
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moving average mark for the past two days and not yet a death cross but that 50
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50 day moving average is getting mightily mightily close to that that 200 day moving
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average So.
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Is your love affair over, Skull?
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We've got troubles.
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We are seeing, we're getting some,
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what's it, what do you call it, go see a shrink.
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No, I'm not calling it yet.
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It's definitely, when you look at the environment we're currently still sitting
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in, I still believe that.
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If you look at this thing play out, and again, just making it very short, we've
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already talked about the inflation problem.
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We're talking about interest rates and the worry that I've still got that there's
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going to be some
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influence to either not hike rates or if they hike it,
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they'll be slower to hike it to support the inflation.
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So inflation will stay higher.
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That will mean eventually if they.
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if we get rates that high, we're going to see some job losses.
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And I would not be surprised if we see the U.S.
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head into that recession very, very quickly or shortly after that.
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And that's the stagflationary environment you and I have been talking about for
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many, many moons.
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And that still supports the gold call.
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Add into the mix that they still got massive, massive geopolitical worries,
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a.k.a.
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a war that's escalating.
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I'm not calling it on gold yet in actual fact.
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I am watching these levels, maybe a little bit on the scarier side,
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but I'm still looking at these levels as possible entry points rather than getting
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out.
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Okay, let's have a look at some of the movies on the JSC today, Skalk.
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First of all, before we get to the ups and the downs and the indices,
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What about stock exchange news service announcements since we last spoke?
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Any companies that have come out with trading updates or results that have
18:03
either delighted you or saddened you?
18:05
No, no, there was no scenes today.
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I think the only anything that came out was SPA.
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I can't remember if that was yesterday or today, but that was horrible.
18:14
I mean, that is really some, but it did seem like today that a bit of a
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retracement.
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They guided well enough, I think a week or so ago in a trading statement,
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and they came in more or less in between the guidance, but it really didn't look
18:32
good.
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I mean, if you look at the whole, they just got it wrong upon wrong upon wrong.
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Biggest driver for what went wrong was they totally overspent it on promotional
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or
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advertising for Black Friday.
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They're talking about that.
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Yeah, they overspent on promotion.
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Spa, Black Friday?
18:55
Yes.
18:56
They don't go together, those two phrases, or those two one word, one phrase.
19:00
Spa and Black Friday?
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No, surely not.
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I was just as surprised as you did.
19:07
But yeah, when I look at the overspent or how that contributed to the decline or
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profit
19:14
decline, that contributed 212 million rand to the profit decline.
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So yes.
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clearly back Friday was a big thing.
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And then naturally the KwaZulu-Natal distribution chaos that they've got their
19:29
distribution center,
19:31
that contributed about 123 million rand to the decline.
19:32
So yeah, I'm really worried for SPA because we had a lot of...
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conversation earlier about interest rates pressure upwards.
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The balance sheet, I mean, we look at the net debt from last year,
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the net debt was 5.4 billion rand.
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Now, this was not just last year, this time around, we're talking about
19:56
September.
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Now, the net debt is at 7.3 billion.
20:01
So, yeah, if you've got this type of, let's call it six months or 26 weeks as
20:08
they
20:08
reported it then uh yeah and if you've got a corporation with a lot of debt and with
20:15
interest rates rising and
20:17
with people getting less and less willing to lend and if they do lend they're
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charging a premium it's not it's it's
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not a good situation to have that much debt no
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no no no that's uh you know ask pick and pay they they they uh they they've built
20:32
up that bit of debt and they
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eventually had to do um rights issues and and deal you know the listing of
20:37
Boxer and they're still struggling.
20:40
But I mean, so yeah, that's two food retailers in South Africa that's really,
20:47
really struggling.
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And while they're doing the likes of the, clearly the Woolies Foods and ShopRites
20:54
are doing really, really well.
20:56
So they still keep on taking market share or further market share.
20:58
And that's not easy to grab that back.
20:59
But talking about debt, I mean, Sappy also, they came out with a Q2 result.
21:04
And man, oh man, yes.
21:05
I mean, this is one company that I've...
21:07
Never been able to make money on.
21:09
I mean, never, ever.
21:10
Or understand, quite honestly.
21:12
It's a commodity company.
21:13
It comes up with quarterly results.
21:14
And after one quarter, they come out with results that are propelling the share
21:21
price up 10%.
21:23
The next quarter, it's down 7.5%.
21:24
It's all over the place, that thing.
21:27
Yeah.
21:28
But, I mean, to your point, if you look at the revenue for this second quarter,
21:34
revenue dipped 1%.
21:36
So, I mean, that's… Pedestrian.
21:38
Yeah, it's fairly unchanged.
21:39
But when you look at the EBITDA, I mean, the EBITDA more than halved.
21:46
So, you know, that is crazy.
21:48
If you think you had an EBITDA Q1 of $101 million,
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that came down to, what, what's less than 50 odd million dollars.
22:00
I mean, that's just crazy, crazy to see the swings on this thing.
22:05
And they contributed mostly to the pulp prices.
22:08
If you just go and Google pulp prices or more specifically craft pulp
22:14
prices, then you'll see why SAP is struggling.
22:18
What they're selling is just the prices is just nowhere.
22:23
Both companies I don't own and both companies I would most probably not own in
22:29
the unforeseeable future.
22:31
I will shop at SPAR, but I won't own SPAR ever, I don't think.
22:34
I mean, I live in a village and it's got a shop and the shop is called Spa.
22:39
And when I go there, the person that owns it says hello to me.
22:42
And it's open until eight o'clock at night, which is great.
22:45
And closes on a Sunday, like all shops should, you know, just to have a rest.
22:51
But yes, I'm done.
22:53
How does it compare, for instance, this is an interesting question, you know,
22:57
how does Spa compare to the likes of the Jumbos or Albert Heins?
23:03
Um, they don't compare very well.
23:06
They don't compare very well at all.
23:08
But it's the convenience factor, as I said.
23:11
It's small enough to be able to survive with a small catchment area in the village
23:17
in which I live.
23:19
But Albert Heijn, Jumbo and
23:21
Lidl and Aldi now really biting into the other ones.
23:24
I went to the Aldi the other day.
23:26
I don't know if you're a chocolate eater, Skulk.
23:28
I eat chocolate.
23:30
I eat chocolate and it's a substitute for alcohol since I gave up booze.
23:35
Chocolate and ice cream.
23:36
It's top of my shopping list all the time.
23:40
So I went to Aldi and I bought eight bars of chocolate.
23:44
Fair enough, it'll last me a long time.
23:46
But you taste it and you say, this is better than Lindt or one of the other big
23:53
Swiss breads.
23:55
Really, really good stuff.
23:57
How did I get onto chocolate anyway?
23:57
I don't know.
23:58
We were talking about...
23:59
and how they're losing money, and then we try to drown our sorrows.
24:03
And you mentioned to Dutch retail chains, yes.
24:06
Yeah, that's it.
24:07
Anyway.
24:09
So, yeah, besides that, it was a quiet day, negative day, but a quiet day in the
24:14
market.
24:14
And that's also, you know, when we look at the daily turnover today,
24:20
also evident there, only seen less than 18 billion traded over the day.
24:26
This is by far these.
24:28
the quietest day for this week.
24:30
Well, it's the Northern Hemisphere.
24:33
summer, which is obviously contributing to the swings we're seeing and also the
24:38
nervousness,
24:38
because if someone gets it into their head that they need to take a big position,
24:44
then they can push the market around a bit.
24:46
There's two other things that are happening in the next, well, kicking off
24:49
tomorrow, actually, the World Cup.
24:51
And it's an extended World Cup because there's more teams and it's in three
24:54
countries.
24:54
That will mean that a lot of people are not going to be that focused on markets as
25:00
they were before.
25:02
And, Skulk, I know you're not a football fan.
25:03
Oh, so it's a football World Cup.
25:05
I was about to ask.
25:06
Okay.
25:07
So football, soccer World Cup.
25:09
Got it?
25:11
I can't believe you don't know that.
25:13
You're in a different world, aren't you?
25:16
No, I'm just pulling your socks.
25:17
I'm pulling myself beyond Bafana Bafana all the way.
25:21
Me too, yes.
25:22
Well, that's my third team, actually.
25:23
England, Netherlands, and then Bafana Bafana.
25:26
Hammerson today was the best.
25:29
The Best Performer up just over 2.5%.
25:32
British American Tobacco up 2.3%.
25:34
We Buy Cars up 1.6%.
25:36
ShopRite up 1.5% nearly.
25:38
Lighthouse Capital up 1.4%.
25:40
You can see it's a really mixed and sort of scrappy top five that I've got.
25:45
On the downside, African Rainbow Minerals down 8.5%.
25:49
Coronation down 8.1%.
25:52
Carew down 6.7%.
25:53
And I don't know what the other one is because I don't understand what SUPR is.
25:57
but Skalk, any others that you can tell me about, up or down?
26:02
No, the Coronation is an ex-diff story.
26:06
But besides that, if it was digging today, it was down today.
26:11
That's just the bottom line.
26:13
S&P, by the way, when we started, was down a third of a percent.
26:18
When I gave the price six minutes ago, it was down about half a percent.
26:23
It's now down nearly 1%.
26:25
It's picking up some downside momentum here, Skalk.
26:29
So anyway, the indices, did you give me the closing indices?
26:32
No.
26:32
JSE All Share today closed 109,593 points, down 1.4%.
26:38
JSE Top 40, that was down 1.5%. Resources, as you mentioned,
26:44
that was a massive day.
26:46
3.95, I'm going to round it down to 4% down for today.
26:53
Industrials up.
26:54
Nine basis points, while the financials, that was down 77 basis points.
26:58
And interesting enough, ESSE property, that remained positive for today.
27:03
What's the NASDAQ doing, by the way?
27:04
Because I haven't got it live on my screen because I'm lazy.
27:07
Yeah, it's down 1.1% as we speak.
27:10
So taking a clap there as well.
27:14
And it's interesting.
27:15
I mean, finally, just Apple was the case in point yesterday.
27:21
to say to sum up the whole AI thing.
27:24
Because if you look at Apple, they had their big reveal.
27:29
And this time of the year, they call it the WWDC.
27:33
This is a major.
27:35
And it's also the last one that Tim Cook was hosting.
27:38
Yes.
27:39
And they now officially launched Siri AI.
27:43
And...
27:44
What does that mean?
27:46
Yeah.
27:47
So for the Apple users, they will know Siri.
27:49
That's the...
27:50
sort of the assistant version.
27:53
Every phone has got their own.
27:54
Alexa is in Google.
27:56
So most of these phones have got an assistant.
28:00
But Siri was never AI.
28:01
It was just this thing that listened to you and it answers you.
28:06
And now yesterday they mentioned, here we go, Apple is now also going to have AI.
28:13
Later on mentioned that what's actually going to be Google Gemini's AI.
28:17
which are just going to build into the Apple Foundation.
28:22
And what did the market say?
28:24
Well, this is so disappointing.
28:26
You're only getting into AI now.
28:28
Boom, I think it was close to 4% down yesterday.
28:30
And what is it doing today, just for interest sake?
28:33
Today it is I can't see it.
28:36
I'm not going to wait, but I presume that's down again today.
28:39
Skunk, thanks so much for your time.
28:40
Hopefully we've got some more cheery news and some more cheery predictions for the
28:46
the rest of the
28:48
northern hemisphere summer this time next week
28:50
skulk low is a portfolio manager at psg wealth old oak in cape town and that was
28:55
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28:57
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